Accountant Doug Hoffman will again run for the seat he narrowly lost in a special election earlier this month, he said in a statement on his campaign website Thursday.
"[O]ur energies are now directed toward 2010," Hoffman wrote. "Full speed ahead to 2010. This gives us time to carefully articulate and communicate thoughtful positions on issues that impact the great people of our district."
Hoffman narrowly lost the race to fill Army Sec. John McHugh's open seat in upstate NY. After GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign and backed businessman Bill Owens (D), Owens won a small plurality.
Next time, Hoffman said, his three month-long campaign will be better-prepared.
"We take away lessons from this year's campaign that will make us stronger and more competitive in the future," he wrote. "Next time we will be better prepared. Many people forget that our campaign only began in earnest three months ago. Most campaigns of this stature take at least a year to prepare. In three months, we almost toppled an entrenched political system and successfully defied the conventional thinking of the elite political punditry. Citizen government is making a comeback in America."
We're betting national GOPers will be more open to his candidacy this year, now that he will have to run in a primary. Still, Owens will be a formidable candidate with the power -- and liabilities -- of incumbency, and Hoffman has his own issues on which he can improve as a candidate.
Hoffman rescinded a concession he made in the early morning hours after election night, and he's spent the last few weeks making an issue of alleged vote fraud; he has basically blamed ACORN for his loss. People who focus on the last election don't do terribly well on the future one -- just ask Chris Jennings, the Dem nominee in FL-13, who complained about her narrow 369-vote loss under questionable circumstances to Rep. Vern Buchanan in '06; in 2008, she lost her rematch in '08 by a 55%-38% margin. Hoffman will have to get over his loss this year to make a new argument next year.
But he's already started making that new path. Hoffman says he and his backers need to help "other fiscal, common-sense conservatives" get elected, continuing his tendency not to bring up social issues during his campaign. That sounds remarkably like the conversation Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell had with VA voters, a playbook GOPers are eager to mimic next year.
(REID WILSON)
AZ AG Terry Goddard (D) leads Gov. Jan Brewer (R) by a wide margin, according to the state's most respected independent poll.
The Cronkite-Eight Poll, sponsored by ASU's Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET TV, shows 47% of AZ voters would back Goddard, while just 28% want to see Brewer get her own shot at a full term.
Brewer, elected Sec/State in '06, ascended to the top job when Pres. Obama tapped Janet Napolitano to take over at DHS. And her tenure, so far, has been rocky; the state faces huge budget deficits, so much so that it is considering a proposal to sell its own legislative buildings for a quick cash infusion, only to lease them back.
Brewer has challengers lining up on the GOP side as well, including Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, ex-State Sen. Karen Johnson and a host of others. Ex-Transportation Sec. Mary Peters has not ruled out a race, and Treas. Dean Martin (R) is quietly mentioned as a potential candidate as well.
Meanwhile, Goddard is the only serious candidate on the Dem side.
(REID WILSON)
Continue reading "Goddard Leads Brewer By Wide Margin" »
GOPers have long said Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) is one of the most vulnerable Dems in office, thanks to his penchant for controversial statements. We'd be happy to believe them -- if only they had a candidate actually running against the guy.
Instead, the NRCC has watched as candidate after candidate has backed away from challenging Grayson in his Orlando-based district. Finally, GOPers think they have a candidate committed to the race.
Businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, the head of the Orlando NFIB, gave an interview to a local news channel, hinting he has already met with NRCC officials and is prepared to jump in the race. According to a biography [pdf] he's the head of a traffic engineering company his parents founded.
For the local news story, ex-LG Toni Jennings (R) gave an on-camera endorsement, a development GOPers say is indicative of O'Donoghue's seriousness about the seat and an indication he will have united party support. GOPers expect O'Donoghue to get in the race early next month.
But in spite of Grayson's love of controversy and habit of inflaming the right, O'Donoghue will have a tough race ahead of him. Grayson already had $477,000 in the bank at the end of Sept, and his comments on the House floor -- that GOPers want those who get sick to "die quickly" -- sparked a fundraising surge that netted him more than $500,000 in a month, he reported on his website.
Too, Grayson has showed a willingness in '08 to seriously self-fund his own campaign; he still owes himself more than $1M from that race.
So, he remains a top target, an unabashed liberal in a decidedly centrist district -- it went for Pres. Obama after voting twice for Pres. Bush. Grayson has the money to run an effective campaign, but now, finally, GOPers have someone who could give him a strong challenge.
(REID WILSON)
Three of four Dems running to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) are raising money at a furious pace, but the fourth has given himself more than $5M, the Boston Globe reports.
With less than two weeks to go, Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D) has given himself $5.4M, easily dwarfing his nearest rivals' fundraising success even as he trails in the polls. He can afford it, too; his wealth has been estimated at between $259M and $756M.
Tomorrow, campaigns will have to file reports detailing their fundraising success since Oct. 1. AG Martha Coakley (D) leads with $1.9M in total receipts, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano (D) with $1.8M+ and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) with $1.2M.
Polls show Coakley leading with Capuano gaining ground. But the amount those two have spent doesn't come close to what Pagliuca has invested. He has spent a total of $4.2M on TV ads, compared to $1.4M for Capuano and $1.3M for Coakley. The Khazei campaign could not immediately provide a number.
Coakley, Capuano and Khazei are currently up on the air with one TV ad each. Pagiluca has been up with at least two ads at any given time, according to his campaign, and plans to launch a new ad on health care this p.m.
In total, Pagliuca has raised about half a million dollars, his campaign said. Coakley has taken in $4.1M, followed by Khazei at $2.3M. Capuano, who started the campaign with $1.1M in his federal spending account, has taken in $2.1M more. Coakley currently has $1.9M CoH to Capuano's $1.1M and Khazei's $500K.
Khazei, while the undisputed underdog in the polls, got a boost last week in a fundraiser hosted by NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg. More than 160 people attended the event at Bloomberg's private residence, raising more than $250K for the campaign.
(FELICIA SONMEZ)
Conservative radio icon Rush Limbaugh is a big fan of ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). His feelings about Gov. Charlie Crist (R) aren't so positive.
In an interview this morning on a Tallahassee radio station, Limbaugh stopped short of endorsing Rubio's uphill battle against Crist in the GOP SEN primary, but he came pretty close.
"I like Rubio. I've never met him, nor have I met Crist," Limbaugh said in a clip circulated by the Rubio campaign. "In the Republican Party particularly, there is a fatigue with RINOs and moderate Republicans. You can see the crowds Sarah Palin is drawing."
"Now Republicans, the only chance they ever have of winning national elections is to go conservative, and I think that's what's brewing out there," Limbaugh went on. "The Republican Party is going to be looking at this Crist-Rubio primary, because it's going to be a pretty stark contrast."
Rubio has positioned himself on Crist's right, but lately Crist has been pushing back, asserting that he is more conservative than he's getting credit for, and that Rubio has more flaws in his record than he has been held to account for.
Crist also suggested that those on the right who oppose him do so because he is not angry enough, citing a recent DailyKos poll that found Rubio ahead among GOP voters who don't believe Pres. Obama was born in the U.S.
"It's hard to be more concervative than I am on issues - though there are different ways stylistically to communicate that - I'm pro-life, I'm pro-gun, I'm pro-family, and I''m anti tax," Crist said in an interview with the St. Pete Times' Adam Smith this week. "I don't know what else you're supposed to be, except maybe angry too."
That irked Limbaugh as well: "I notice that Crist is out there now, 'Hey, what do you mean, who says I'm not conservative? I'm pro-life, I'm pro-gun, I don't know what more I have to be except angry.' That's not going to sit well," Limbaugh said Wednesday morning.
Rubio is still racking up endorsements from the right, but Crist maintains a lead in the polls. We'll see if backing from Limbaugh, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), the Club for Growth and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) can be enough for Rubio to climb what remains a very high hurdle.
(REID WILSON)
Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) will take advantage of rumors that he may challenge Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) by raising money to pay down old legal bills.
Conservatives were thrilled when a poll appeared to show Hayworth within striking distance of McCain in a hypothetical GOP primary matchup. The IVR poll, a method of polling Hotline OnCall does not run, has led Hayworth to openly speculate about running against McCain next year during his daily radio show.
Now, in an email to supporters posted by SeeingRedAZ, Hayworth asks for donations to his legal defense fund, the Freedom in Truth Trust. Hayworth will raise money for the fund with Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the hero of anti-illegal immigration activists, at a Dec. 5 event in Paradise Valley.
"Miss Mary, our children, and I will do a lot of praying and a lot of talking in the days ahead, as we determine the best course of action to take for our nation and for our family," Hayworth writes to supporters. "You may not live in Arizona ... but no matter where you call home, would you respond to the attached invitation and please send a contribution to the FIT Trust? That would certainly be a factor in the decision we will make at the 'Hayworth Hacienda!'"
Hayworth incurred campaign debt and legal fees after the '06 campaign. The hardline conservative, who lost his suburban Phoenix seat to Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) in the '06 Dem landslides, is a favorite of Copper State conservatives, while McCain has made a career out of antagonizing the hard right even in his home state.
Our sources in AZ say a Hayworth bid is unlikely, both given his current spot on the Phoenix airwaves and the uphill climb any contest against McCain would be. McCain already has $5M in the bank for his re-election bid, and while conservatives may dislike him, everyone else loves him in AZ (Dems haven't even considered spending time trying to recruit a candidate against him).
But if Hayworth does jump in the race, it will provide an instant forum in which GOPers can debate their views on immigration. The AZ GOP is bitterly split over the issue; sources have called the state party little more than an anti-immigration PAC, and just 1 of the state's 5 GOP members of Congress sides with the party (That would be Rep. Trent Franks, with McCain, Sen. Jon Kyl and Reps. Jeff Flake and John Shadegg hewing more toward a comprehensive solution rather than an enforcement-only approach).
Hayworth is ideologically closer to Franks than he is to the rest of the AZ delegation. If he does decide to make a longshot bid, expect the race to center on little else than the border.
(REID WILSON)
Ex-Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R), a top GOP prospect against Rep. John Adler (D-NJ), will return to the NFL this season. And then he's going to run for Congress.
"I received an offer to pursue my professional dream of winning a Super Bowl, and have decided to sign with the San Diego Chargers for the remainder of this season through the playoffs," Runyan wrote in a statement. "Win or lose, these will be my final games as an NFL player."
"After the season is over I plan to officially retire from football and pursue a campaign for the United States Congress," he said. "I look forward to a successful end to my career on the field, and a spirited campaign against Congressman Adler in 2010."
Runyan is taking a rather unorthodox road to the campaign trail. Last weekend, records revealed Runyan had only registered as a GOPer in the last month, and before that had a sparse voting record. Not exactly the typical profile of a politician chomping at the bit for a Congressional run.
But Runyan's profile as a political johnny-come-lately is becoming more common this cycle.
Atty Paul Huber (R), who's running against Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA), also has an interesting voting history: he was a Dem until after last year's WH contest. Only after that race did he register with the GOP.
There are plenty of GOP state legislators, county executives and other elected officials in the mix, but the NRCC has put a special emphasis on outsiders this cycle.
A large portion of these outsiders are physicians. In NY-19, opthamologist Nan Hayworth (R) entered the race late, but she brought $150K of her own cash with her and practically shoved Assemb. Greg Ball (R) out of the contest. Physicians are also some of the party's strongest candidates against Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and Lincoln Davis (D-TN).
And in Rep. Dennis Moore's (D-KS) newly open seat, there are several state and local elected officials considering bids, but the NRCC reportedly has been trying to coax neurosurgeon Steve Reintjes (R) into the race.
Throw in roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R), who's running in a crowded field against Rep. Steve Kagen (D-WI), and farmer Steve Fincher (R), who shocked everyone by raising $300K for a challenge against Rep. John Tanner (D-TN), and many GOP recruits are bringing diverse backgrounds to their races.
And this cycle, those profiles appear to be a good match for the environment. The Tea Party movement -- regardless of its long-term impacts on the party -- sprung out of a widespread frustration with DC and "politics as usual." For the GOP to take advantage of this sentiment, its candidates in many places should reflect this home-grown angst. And these candidates do just that.
This is not a strategy without risk, though. First-time candidates, political novices and self-funders don't have great track records in Congressional races. And not every NFL player will be as successful as Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC). Indeed, even though Runyan's name ID is through the roof in NJ-03, he still may have to face a strong primary challenge.
But as the GOP attempts to expand the playing field, Runyan and these others represent a group of unlikely, yet intriguing, challengers. If there ever was a cycle where they'd be successful, this may be it.
(TIM SAHD)
'09 nominee Doug Hoffman (C) conceded NY-23, again, this afternoon. The move comes after a final vote tally showed Rep. Bill Owens (D) winning the 11/3 special election by a 3,583-vote advantage. "The results re-affirm the fact that Bill Owens won," Hoffman wrote in a release. "Over the past three weeks, we nearly cut Bill Owens' lead in half. Sadly, that is not enough. The shift in support since election night highlights one fact; the Boards of Elections, both state and county, need to work closely to ensure the seamless use of these machines in the 2010 statewide and midterm elections."
Hoffman originally conceded to Owens on election night, when over 5.3K ballots separated the two candidates. But as the tally was finalized (and mistakes from several counties corrected), Hoffman gradually gained on Owens, although never enough to truly put Owens lead in jeopardy.
In a letter to supporters just a week ago, Hoffman rescinded his concession, alleging that Dems -- and ACORN -- "stole" the election by "tampering" with ballots. Aides downplayed the statements, though, and Hoffman never followed through with promises to contest the race.
Later in his release, he gave supporters a clue as to his plans of a rematch. "I plan to stay active in politics and in the weeks and months ahead hope to be able to personally thank all those who made this race so close and exciting," he wrote.
(TIM SAHD)
It's been mentioned by a few people, myself included, but it bears repeating: Dems know that if they experience a wave of retirements this year, they're in trouble. In '94, Dems lost 21 seats in which the incumbent decided against seeking another term.
That's why DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has put so much emphasis on keeping incumbents in their races. And he's been largely successful; to date, only Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS, pictured right) has announced he will retire without seeking another office.
Van Hollen has even been successful in keeping Dems out of other races; just 6 Dems are running for SEN or GOV, and most of them hold safe seats. (It hasn't always helped his entire party, as we're sure the DSCC would have loved Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) to run for an open SEN seat.)
But by and large, retirements, if they end today, would only threaten Dems' hold on Moore's seat and those held by Reps. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) and Joe Sestak (D-PA). Then again, virtually no one expects Moore's to be the last shoe to drop.
Thanksgiving and the ensuing winter holiday break are when members go home, sit down with their families and decide their political future. Each year, retirements seem to surge in Dec. and Jan.
A top Dem aide plugged in to the party's efforts to keep their majority says things will only look bad if as many as 20 members retire. That number is higher than anyone expects, but there may be as many as a dozen who do decide against stepping down.
Moore's departure caused a few Dems to panic a bit, and to get a little defensive. If Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO), Leonard Boswell (D-IA) or other entrenched incumbents in GOP-leaning seats start looking for new lines of work, maybe they'll have a real reason to panic.
(REID WILSON)
CORRECTED: RNC member Jim Bopp emails to tell us that the resolution is not intended to take previous votes into account, presumably giving everyone a clean slate. We've re-written the post to reflect that.
A resolution that may come before RNC members in Jan. could have the effect of eliminating several prominent GOP recruits from receiving party money.
The resolution, offered by IN national committeeman Jim Bopp and nine fellow RNC members, would forbid the national party from spending money on candidates who do not meet at least 8 of 10 criteria set down as party principles.
Those principles include opposing abortion rights, opposing same-sex marriage, opposing the stimulus package and cap and trade bills and supporting surges in Iraq and Afghanistan and gun rights, among others.
But, some GOP strategists pointed out, several of the party's most promising candidates would not qualify for party money if the resolution is adopted.
Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) has been elected statewide 12 times, including a term as LG, 2 terms as GOV and 9 terms in the House. He is running to fill the remainder of VP Joe Biden's term, and he gives GOPers the best -- and perhaps only -- shot at winning the seat.
But Castle voted in favor of cap and trade legislation, has a largely pro-choice voting record and received an "F" rating from the National Rifle Association. That, under Bopp's resolution, would be enough to disqualify Castle from receiving national party support.
"Setting aside that a litmus test resolution would hurt the party's image with independent voters, it could have real-world implications for the Senate race in Delaware next year," said one GOP strategist. "The idea that the RNC would not spend any resources on behalf of Rep. Castle when Republicans have a tremendous opportunity to win the sitting Vice President's Senate seat is absolute insanity."
Bopp said the resolution, if it passes, will take into account Castle's vote on cap and trade, but that the resolution is worded in such a way as to take into account only legislation that has come up recently. The RNC would take future action into account more than past action, he suggested.
"Since many of these items involve specific proposals that will be voted on in Congress in the next year, we want members of Congress to understand that their votes will make a difference in whether they are funded by the RNC," Bopp said in an email. "We hope that this may influence some to vote the Republican position, since substantial RNC funding may be at stake."
But other GOPers who have come under scrutiny for earlier votes have been challenged from the right as well. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), who would give GOPers a strong chance to contend for Pres. Obama's former SEN seat, also voted for cap and trade. He is lucky Bopp's resolution would not take into account that he led a group of 11 GOP congressmen who opposed the surge in Iraq, has an "F" rating from the NRA and at one time had a 100% pro-choice rating from NARAL.
Kirk has tacked to the right lately, going back on his cap and trade vote, voting in favor of the pro-life Stupak Amendment two weeks ago and vociferously supporting a troop surge in Afghanistan. But the resolution promises to judge politicians by their "voting record, public statements and/or signed questionnaire[s]," which, were it interpreted to include past votes, might put Kirk in jeopardy.
Both FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) will argue their opponent is out of step on at least two issues. Crist signed a state version of cap and trade and very publicly backed the stimulus bill earlier this year. But Rubio, Crist will argue, did little to advance conservative causes on immigration -- another key point of the platform -- and voted in favor of that cap and trade bill.
The measure would make decisions about funding the discretion of RNC chair Michael Steele, giving him the option to distance the party from those who don't fit conservative norms. Steele came under fire for backing Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) in NY-23 earlier this Fall, though he had no practical choice in the matter.
"Under the resolution the chairman makes the determination. I think we can trust Chairman Steele to do so in good faith," said Bopp, who has not always seen eye to eye with Steele.
Bopp may get a vote on the floor of the RNC meeting this Jan. in Hawaii, or RNC chair Michael Steele may succeed in once again blocking a measure that could prove embarrassing. But candidates, and the party's professional class, uniformally call the resolution a bad idea.
(REID WILSON)
Despite being out of power, promising recruits are giving GOPers a chance to impact Dems' agenda in the House, the party's top campaign official claims.
NRCC chair Pete Sessions (R-TX) credits the presence of strong GOP recruits for giving the minority the chance to make life more difficult for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And, as more GOP candidates start looking competitive, the party believes their impact on the national conversation will grow.
"We believe that we are helping control the agenda by having good people who are candidates back home," Sessions told reporters last week.
He pointed to 16 Dems who voted in favor of cap and trade legislation this summer, then voted against leadership in opposing health care two weeks ago. "You can have bad public opinion back home, but if nobody's running against you, you think you've got a pass," Sessions said.
An NRCC aide explained that by getting those Dems to move, their aggressiveness is intimidating many Democratic members' support of their leadership. The aide would not say GOPers believe that means the equally ambitious Democratic leadership would offer a watered-down version of their goals as the session rolls onward.
Sessions said the NRCC has recruited top-tier candidates against 14 of those 16 members.
Dems denied that the GOP's recruiting successes are having any impact on their agenda, noting that both bills passed the House. DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall that he "would have a hard time saying that with a straight face."
Indeed, while 16 Dems voted against leadership on health care while backing cap and trade, 21 Dems went the other way -- supporting health care after having voted against cap and trade legislation.
But GOP recruits are drawing a distinction between themselves and incumbent Dems on those key issues. GOP candidates have uniformly come out against the health care bill that passed the House, predicting that their position is the political winner.
Dems have said they believe their precarious political position will improve once a health care bill passes, but the GOP has made clear that they intend the final product -- passed or not -- to be a major issue next year.
Sessions highlighted tax increases he says will result from the bill, while RNC chair Michael Steele said in an interview the GOP will focus on "three to five things" they would do differently, including tort reform, portability, small business pools and reforms to health savings accounts.
(REID WILSON & ERIN MCPIKE)
Continue reading "GOP Claims Candidates Influencing Dem Agenda" »
"World News" led with the economy. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with a crib recall.
ABC continued to air McFadden's interview 11/23 with ex-aide Doug Hampton about Sen. John Ensign's (R-NV) affair with his wife, Cindy Hampton.
Hampton, on seeking help to stop the affair from the C Street House and the first piece of advice they gave him: "Be cool."
McFadden: "Cover it up?"
Hampton: "No, no. Not initially. 'No, we need help. This is not big enough. This is a United States senator. So even though we're friends, we're close, we're brothers in Christ. We need power to confront this. Senator Tom Coburn, the hit man."
Hampton, on confronting Ensign about the continued affair. "Tom [Coburn] really kind of takes the helm."
Hampton, on how angry Coburn is at this point: "Oh he's smoking. I mean he is one upset man. ... And then John kind of breaks down a little bit. 'I don't know what to say. I made a mistake. I really screwed up.'"
Hampton, on a phone call Ensign made to Cindy, hours after writing her a break up letter: "He is just livid. 'They made me write a letter, but it's not how I feel. Doug has exposed me.' As though, somehow I'm the bad guy in this."
(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)
After the jump, more on Ensign, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) weighs in on policy, and Rep. David Obey (D-WI) on paying for the Afghanistan war
Continue reading "Hotline After Dark -- Like Sands Through The Hour Glass ..." »
Good Tuesday morning. We're so close to getting out of here for Thanksgiving! But don't worry -- tune in to Hotline OnCall all weekend for the latest news. If it breaks, we'll have it.
Here's OnCall's Starting Lineup -- the people on the hot seat today -- for Tuesday, 11/24:
RNC CHAIR MICHAEL STEELE: The abrupt departure of RNC communications director Trevor Francis has once again opened wounds among those most closely tied to the committee -- and reminded many of Steele's troubled tenure. The latest bump in the road: Steele had sought credit for GOP wins in VA and NJ, but top officials at the RGA and other party committees, and even in Congress, are prepared to box him out.
Steele has now brought on well-respected GOP strategist Alex Castellanos in a senior advisor role as they search for a new communications chief. Sources tell Hotline OnCall that the list is short -- maybe 3 or 4 names, mostly people with a history of working with the chairman -- but the eventual hire will have to pass muster with Steele advisor Curt Anderson, the strategist who guided his campaign.
The real challenge for Steele will be to stop the bleeding now. But we hear more resignations may happen in the coming weeks as staffers follow Francis out the door.
PRES. OBAMA: After a late-night strategy session with key Af-Pak decisionmakers, Obama is said to be ready to make public his plans for turning the war around. Obama is likely to address the nation 12/1, a week from today, making what may prove the longest-lasting decision of his presidency. It will be the economy that wins or loses re-election for Obama, but the war in Afghanistan will play a key role in establishing his legacy, for better or worse.
And while the GOP stands ready to pounce, they will get a big chance to make headlines and score time on national news nets: Gen. Stanley McChrystal and Amb. Karl Eikenberry have been told to prepare to testify before Congress as early as next week. House Armed Services Cmte chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO) has called for testimony, and it appears he will get his wish.
(REID WILSON)
Continue reading "Tuesday's Starting Lineup" »
RNC communications director Trevor Francis has left the committee just eight months after taking over a struggling shop.
Francis, a former Bush admin official who worked at Burson-Marsteller before returning to political work, won quick praise for reforming RNC chair Michael Steele's public relations outreach. Before Francis joined the team, Steele made several controversial comments that led some RNC members to explore options as drastic as removing him from office.
But Francis built a strong shop, led an effort to refute the Obama admin by holding frequent conference calls with newsmakers, and largely helped Steele avoid putting his foot in his mouth.
Other GOP communications experts gave Francis credit for organizing the party's message in advance of GOV wins in VA and NJ, and helping the party shape the narrative despite deep minorities in both chambers of Congress.
"Trevor took a hiatus from a very successful private sector career to give service to the Republican Party this year," Steele said in a statement. "Trevor's talents will be missed at the RNC. We have accomplished a great deal in the year he was here. He worked tirelessly, as did the whole team, on the victories in Virginia and his home state of New Jersey."
GOP sources said Francis clashed with close Steele advisors, and at times with the chairman himself. Many professional GOPers have been quietly critical of the RNC chairman for taking so much credit for this year's wins, though they say Francis was gracious in sharing credit.
"The RNC is losing an experienced and steady hand in Trevor Francis," one senior GOP official told Hotline OnCall. "When the chairman of the party is incapable of adhering to even basic message discipline and committing repeated gaffes in front of the national media, it is understandable why a communications professional would decide its time to sever ties. It's a shame."
Steele is said to have a list of potential replacements, though a disagreement among his advisors over one name could hold up the process, at least temporarily.
(REID WILSON)
Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) is headed to Palmetto Country next month for a two-day campaign swing.
Santorum, who has already visited IA, will stop in Spartanburg, Greenville and Hilton Head to campaign for Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), who is locked in a tough GOP primary for GOV.
Santorum said he is "looking forward to visiting with South Carolina families to discuss the issues that matter to them and the future of this country. Too much is at stake to sit back and not participate in the critical discussion of how to address these issues," according to a statement he released.
Santorum has been openly toying with a presidential run in '12. He acknowledged that a trip to IA in late September was designed to gin up interest in his own political future.
"When you give a speech in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as a Republican or a Democrat, people pay attention," Santorum said on a conference call the day before his trip. "This is an opportunity to speak and lend my voice to what I hope to be a conservative movement and a Republican movement to change the direction Barack Obama wants to take us."
Strategists say SC is a natural state for him to make early plays, given the electorate's more rightward bent. SC has a much more conservative GOP electorate than IA or NH, and Santorum, as a hero of the Christian right during his time in DC, could be a good fit for voters looking for a champion on social issues.
Santorum's trip is scheduled for 12/8-9.
(ERIN MCPIKE)
Three years after winning every precinct in the city en route to a landslide win, more than half of DC voters would like to see someone other than Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) elected next year, according to a new poll that shows support for the young incumbent fading.
Just 43% of voters approve of Fenty's job performance, with 49% giving him a disapproval rating. Fenty, who has been dogged by ethics and transparency stories that include undisclosed family trips and using police escorts to facilitate personal bicycle rides, earns low marks for handling city finances (28% approve, 58% disapprove) and putting DC's interest above politics (30-57%). Just over a third of voters (34%) would like to see Fenty re-elected, while 53% would like to see someone else take the reins of DC government.
In a head-to-head Dem primary matchup with City Council Chair Vincent Gray, Fenty trails 41-37%.
Gray, notably, is also facing a burgeoning ethics issue, after the Washington Times reported last week that a politically-connected developer without a contracting license arranged for repairs and renovations to Gray's home in SE DC.
In a four-way primary matchup with Gray and Councilors Kwame Brown and Michael Brown (no relation), Fenty emerges with a ten-point lead, but captures just over a third of the vote (34%). Gray comes in at 24%, with K. Brown (13%) and M. Brown (6%) drawing nominal support.
"Mayor Fenty's re-election base is dangerously weak for an incumbent going into an election year," said Clarus Pres. Ron Faucheux in the poll release. "While the mayor still has the time and resources to shore up his re-election prospects before the September primary, he clearly has plenty of work to do to win back voters he's lost since the last election."
A fractious primary would seem to help Fenty in this heavily Dem city; the Dem nominee has won every mayoral election since the office was re-established under home rule in '73. But Gray's performance in the head-to-head matchup suggests that there is sufficient anti-Fenty sentiment should that sentiment be consolidated around one candidate.
Clarus surveyed 501 RVs from 11/15-18, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The primary matchup questions were asked of a subsample of 437 Dems, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.
(STEVEN SHEPARD)
The SC State Ethics Commission has charged Gov. Mark Sanford (R) with violating state laws 37 times during his tenure as chief executive, according to details of a complaint issued Monday.
The commission did not charge Sanford with wrongdoing in connection with a trip he took earlier this year to visit a woman with whom he was having an affair in Argentina. But commissioners did find fault with Sanford's use of state aircraft for personal and political use, as well as with money he spent on ticket upgrades while traveling abroad.
In total, 18 of the charges have to do with instances in which Sanford flew business or first class without being authorized to do so. Those trips were largely trade missions to China, Austria, England, Germany, France and other destinations -- including a June '08 trip to Brazil and Argentina, during which he has acknowledged spending time with the woman with whom he had the affair.
Other charges include use of a state-owned plane to transport Sanford to a political event, a book-signing and a birthday party, as well as a family vacation and a trip to see one of his sons' sporting events. Sanford even allegedly used a state plan to travel to North Myrtle Beach for a haircut.
He also stands accused of improperly reimbursing himself or his staff about $2,900, using campaign cash improperly.
The commission will hold a hearing early next year on the charges. After the hearing, he could face impeachment proceedings from a state House panel.
Sanford has been under unrelenting fire since he acknowledged the affair in a bizarre press conference at the state capitol. He held that press conference in late June after returning from a visit to Argentina to see the woman -- a visit during which he was out of contact with his office.
He has never had good relations with the state legislature, including his own party. Many GOPers are leading calls for his resignation or impeachment, while Dems have largely been content to sit on the sidelines.
(REID WILSON)
Key conservatives on the RNC are circulating a resolution that would canonize an oft-quoted proverb attributed to Ronald Reagan while labeling Pres. Obama's agenda as "socialist."
The resolution would prohibit RNC money from flowing to any candidate who disagrees with more than two itemized planks of the GOP platform -- playing off Reagan's maxim that anyone who agreed with him 80% of the time is not 20% an enemy.
A candidate who disagrees, "as identified by the voting record, public statements and/or signed questionnaire of the candidate, shall not be eligible for financial support and endorsement by the Republican National Committee," the resolution says.
Sponsored by IN national committeeman Jim Bopp and 9 other conservatives on the RNC, wording of the resolution is still being discussed, a source tells Hotline OnCall. When finalized, the resolution will be submitted for discussion at party's semiannual meeting in HI.
The resolution became necessary, Bopp said, after the special election in NY23, in which the GOP candidate backed a Dem over a Conservative Party nominee once it became clear she could not win.
"Having the RNC financially support liberal Republicans who are future party splitters is just very damaging to our ability to reclaim our conservative bona fides," Bopp told Hotline OnCall.
"Over the last several years, we've supported [ex-Sen. Lincoln] Chafee, then [Sen. Arlen] Specter, then [Assemb.] Dede [Scozzafava] in New York 23," Bopp added. "In each case, we invested hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, and the result was severe damage to our credibility among conservaitves, and in each case they switched parties, and/or endorsed the Democrat. We just need to have some standards so this won't happen again."
RNC chairman Michael Steele has come under fire from some conservatives for spending party money to back Scozzafava. He has said he had no choice but to back the GOP nominee, identical reasoning to that of NRCC chair Pete Sessions. When Scozzafava suspended her campaign and backed Rep. Bill Owens (D) over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, both Steele and Sessions threw their support behind Hoffman.
The resolution in its current form would appear to give Steele an excuse not to back a candidate, but it could prohibit him from spending money on behalf of others, if enough RNC members were to object. But the resolution specifically exempts money sent to state and local parties.
It is not the first time Bopp has introduced what could prove to be a controversial resolution. Earlier this year, Bopp offered a resolution condemning Obama's agenda as socialist; Steele allies eventually brokered a compromise that softened the language.
Now the language is back, encouraging "Republican solidarity in opposition to Obama's socialist agenda." Steele and centrists on the committee are likely to work to soften language once again.
But it may get wide acceptance, Bopp noted, in that the resolution codifies what centrists and pragmatists have wanted all along: A more open, accepting party.
"By endorsing Reagan's view, ... we are also embracing a principle that the moderates have been advocating for years, that you don't have to agree with the Republican Party's platform or principles every time, as long as you agree with us most of the time," he said. "That establishes our willingness to be open to people of diverse opinion."
UPDATE: RNC spokesperson Gail Gitcho emails a statement: "The deadline for submitting Resolutions for the RNC Winter Meeting is more than 30 days away. At this point, we do not what resolutions will be submitted nor what the final language of any resolution ultimately submitted may be."
A list of the GOP's ten core principles, as enumerated in the resolution's proposed text, are after the jump.
(REID WILSON)
Continue reading "RNC Revives "Socialist" Debate, To Vote On Principles" »
Fans of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) are also, apparently, fans of atty Patrick Hughes (R) -- which could turn out to be a bad thing for the NRSC.
Over the weekend, Hughes won an online straw poll of visitors to DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund website, which gauged which candidate DeMint backers wanted to support in the race for Pres. Obama's old SEN seat in IL. Hughes took 74%, while Rep. Mark Kirk, the favorite candidate of DC GOPers, garnered just 8%, barely over half the number of people who voted for "other."
Hughes has insisted his path to victory over the much-better known Kirk is easy: Appeal to GOP primary voters by labeling Kirk as a liberal, citing Kirk's votes on cap and trade, against a surge in Iraq and for his largely centrist voting record.
And Kirk has already telegraphed the fact that he feels vulnerable from the right: The week before ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) appeared on Oprah Winfrey's television show in Chicago, Kirk asked an intermediary to help him secure an endorsement from Palin, so he wouldn't face embarrassing questions.
That endorsement never happened, and Kirk faced embarrassing questions, though more for the overture than for the lack of support.
The Club for Growth has not endorsed in the race, and they may have their hands full with other competitive primaries. But if they turn their attention to IL, Kirk's cap and trade vote isn't going to win him fans among Club loyalists.
Meanwhile, Hughes is close and getting closer to DeMint; he's met with the rising conservative star twice, and DeMint seems to be openly mulling an endorsement that would once again go against a candidate favored by party strategists in DC. DeMint is asking supporters whether his PAC should endorse Hughes, offering the question after a bevy of information about Kirk guaranteed to make conservatives' blood boil.
But Kirk is the favorite of DC GOPers for a reason: Polls have showed Kirk tied with or leading Dem candidates, while no one has produced a poll showing Hughes ahead.
Kirk has done his best to turn things around, arguing a more forceful conservative line. But he's been criticized by local papers for changing his tune, leading some to wonder whether he's going too far and risking alienating the very moderate voters that let him win a seat Pres. Obama won easily in '08.
One storyline this helps confirm: DeMint is a power among the conservative base, and his popularity is not waning any time soon. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing for the GOP is less clear-cut.
(REID WILSON)
He may be a former member of Congress, but national GOPers aren't terribly thrilled with the prospects of Tim Walberg (R) running for his old seat.
The NRCC reached out to retired Marine Maj. Brian Rooney (R), an atty and brother of Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL), to encourage him to get in the race, according to the MI political wire MIRS and analyst Susan Demas.
Walberg is a member of the GOP's Young Guns program for promising challengers, but he strikes some as too conservative for the district. He beat centrist Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) in the GOP primary in '06, but lost the seat 2 years later to Rep. Mark Schauer (D).
But simply reaching out to Rooney is not a complete repudiation of Walberg: 2 top NRCC officials, chair Pete Sessions (R-TX) and recruiting captain Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), have been taking road trips to districts to meet with potential candidates, and in many cases they have two or three good prospects considering or already in a race. They'll talk to anyone interested in a run, they insist.
NRCC spokesman Tom Erickson told Hotline OnCall that the party is not getting involved in the primary, and that GOPers believe both Walberg and Rooney can beat Schauer.
Still, we've heard rumblings that local GOPers are not terribly enthusiastic about a Walberg re-run, and bitterness between the Walberg and Schwarz factions of the local party could give Rooney an opening. Rooney is no moderate, but those voters may be more inclined to back him over Walberg.
And imagine the situation in which the NRCC finds itself: They have a former member and close ally of the Club for Growth matched up with a current member's brother. No one can envy the pressure the NRCC is receiving.
(REID WILSON)
Good Monday morning. Anyone still in town after the long Senate weekend and before the short Thanksgiving week?
The players we'll be watching, Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup:
REP. DENNIS MOORE: The KS Dem, serving his 6th term, will become the first member of Congress to retire without seeking another public office when he announces later today that he will not run for another term, the Kansas City Star reports this morning.
Moore has a long history of keeping a GOP-leaning district, and if GOPers are going to have a strong year, districts like his are ones they will need to pick up. Winning an open seat is a lot easier than beating Moore, and so far this year GOPers have been frustrated by the lack of Dem retirements.
DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall last week that the party has an "early warning system" to prevent retirements, and that's going to be an important factor next year: In '94, the unusually large number of Dem open seats gave GOPers a chance to dramatically expand the playing field. If Van Hollen is successful at stemming the retirement tide, Dems may be able to avoid a GOP-heavy wave. But the question is: Will Moore be the exception, or the beginning of a tide of vacancies?
REP. DAVID OBEY: As Pres. Obama debates Af-Pak strategy -- insiders say no decision is likely until after Thanksgiving -- it is the Approps Committee chairman who actually holds the purse strings in the debate over sending more troops to Afghanistan. Obey, defense subcommittee chair John Murtha (D-PA) and Financial Services Committee chair Barney Frank (D-MA) say they want a new tax to pay for the war instead of debt funding, according to a joint statement they released Friday.
The war in Afghanistan is becoming more of a political dilemma for the Obama admin. GOPers will use anything less than acquiescence to the top troop level option presented by Gen. Stanley McChrystal as a cudgel to pound Obama for failing to support the troops. But in accepting McChrystal's option, Obama will irk his liberal base. Add a possible tax to the scenario, and both the rock and the hard place get a little more tricky for the White House to deal with.
Plus, as the public sours on the war, Obama's decision will mean voters see it more as his conflict, and less one for which Pres. Bush can be blamed.
(REID WILSON)
Continue reading "Monday's Starting Lineup" »
On the Sunday shows: Key Dems say their votes aren't secured on health care yet, and they've got demands for Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid.
Meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Schumer thinks the public option will survive in some form, and Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner's future remains unclear.
The best moments and analysis from our colleague, and OnCall founder, Marc Ambinder.
One more observation: A wise GOPer emails Hotline OnCall noting Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R-TX) performance on Meet The Press today. Why, the GOPer asks, is she doing national TV discussing DC issues when she's engaged in a race for GOV in which the dominant narrative from opponent/Gov. Rick Perry (R) is the difference between TX and DC? Doesn't that make her more of the DC candidate, even if she's arguing against the Dem majority in the Senate?
(REID WILSON)
Anyone pining for a second meeting between Sarah Palin and Katie Couric is going to be sorely disappointed.
Sources tell Hotline OnCall that Couric's producer sent two requests to Palin's publisher for interviews during the "Going Rogue" book tour, and so far, Couric has been denied.
It's not surprising -- Palin has not agreed to sit down with more than a small handful of mainstream media interviewers -- but the move looks to be part of a larger Palin blackout from CBS News and Entertainment.
Palin told FNC's Sean Hannity that after an ill-fated joke last summer, there will be no appearances on CBS' "Late Show" as well: "Forgiveness and vengeance isn't mine. I'm not out for vindication, but I'm thinking, practically, economically, in terms of a David Letterman visit, I don't want to boost his ratings so -- no, I have no desire to."
Palin has avoided CBS programming since her '08 interview with Couric, and as of now, there are no plans for any future Palin interviews on CBS.
Couric and Letterman, however, are not the only current or former employees of CBS who have irked Palin. The McCain staffer of whom she has been most critical, Nicolle Wallace, was a paid political analyst for CBS News prior to joining the McCain campaign. Additionally, the "Early Show" is a favored forum for Levi Johnston to expound on the ex-AK Gov.
In July '09, just after Palin resigned from office, the networks descended upon Alaska for interviews. Among those who scored sit-downs: CNN's Drew Griffin, NBC's Andrea Mitchell and ABC's Kate Snow.
No CBS.
Palin addressed those days in "Going Rogue": "We issued an open invitation for the press (except CBS)."
(ABBY LIVINGSTON)
Continue reading "Palin Freezing Out CBS, Disappointing No One" »
Dems will spend next week trying to claim the offensive on the economy after rising unemployment rates in recent months have driven Pres. Obama's approval ratings to new lows.
Party strategists see a Saturday front page story in the New York Times as a landscape-altering moment. The story suggests that, though liberal economists said the stimulus was too small and conservatives argued it was too big, the $787B package is working.
Economists, the story says, believe Obama's stated goal of saving or creating 3.5M jobs by the end of next year is on track, although more jobs are being saved than created.
The story, Dems argue, gives their party a chance to reclaim the initiative on an issue that, so far, has worked in the GOP's favor. Surveys continue to show voters are pessimistic about the economy, while one recent poll suggested voters are beginning to blame the Bush admin less and the Obama admin more.
"There is now a broad consensus among economists that the Recovery package was a worthy step that saved our economy from going off a cliff," Rep. Chris Van Hollen, the DCCC chairman, will say in a statement Sunday.
GOPers argue the stimulus still works on their behalf, especially given an unemployment rate that remains above 10% and shows no signs of dropping any time soon.
"If this is what the DCCC plans to go on offense with, they might as well tell their members and candidates to batten down the hatches because they are in for a very long next twelve months," said NRCC communications director Ken Spain.
Spain also pointed to reports this week that accountability over jobs the admin has claimed were created is sorely lacking. Thousands of jobs are listed on a government website as having been created in congressional districts that don't exist, and the GAO cast doubt on whether as many as 50,000 jobs have even been created.
(REID WILSON)
Continue reading "Dems To Claim Offense On Stimulus" »
Two key Dems said Saturday they will support a key test vote on the health care bill, giving Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid the 60 votes he needs to begin debate.
Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) said they would back Reid's position in the rare Saturday night vote.
"I have decided that there are enough significant reforms and safeguards in this bill to move forward but much more work needs to be done," Landrieu said on the floor today.
"Although I don't agree with everything in this bill, I have concluded that I believe it is more important that we begin this debate to improve our nation's health care system for all Americans rather than drop the issue," Lincoln added in her own speech.
The two centrists were the last two Dems who remained uncommitted. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) said on Friday he would vote for the bill.
GOPers have attempted to portray the test vote as tantamount to voting in favor of the entire bill. The NRSC hit Lincoln, who faces a difficult re-election battle next year, calling her vote "unequivocally" in favor of the bill.
"There's no doubt that this vote will be a critical issue for Senator Lincoln as she embarks on her uphill re-election bid, and the people of Arkansas will have an opportunity to hold her accountable when they cast their ballots next November," NRSC spokesperson Amber Wilkerson Marchand said in a statement.
Meanwhile, GOPers used Landrieu's announcement to hit Reid, who is facing his own re-election fight. Reid included a provision in the bill that would give her state $100M to address its Medicaid budget shortfall.
"As with most deals Harry Reid cuts in Washington, advancing the agenda of the special interests on the left was more important today than protecting the interests of Nevada taxpayers," the NRSC's Brian Walsh said, labeling the provision the "new Louisiana purchase."
Dems have pushed back on the notion that the initial vote is akin to an endorsement of the whole bill.
"Attempts by the National Republican Party and other conservative groups to portray this as a vote for or against this particular health care reform bill is untrue and deliberately misleading," Lincoln said in her floor speech. "The vote tonight will mark the beginning of consideration of this bill by the full U.S. Senate, not the end."
Dems are eager to get health care off the table, and tonight's vote will be a major victory for Reid and his party. But they still have a ways to go before the final product gets to Pres. Obama's desk.
(REID WILSON)
Key Senate Vote: Want to stay in this evening? Sit back and watch the Senate debate health care reform on C-SPAN. Two weeks ago, the House took most of the night to complete their votes. This time around, the roll call in the Senate, expected around 8 p.m., will be even more dramatic.
Biden In Iowa: No politician goes to Iowa by mistake, according to one of our favorite writers. Today, VP Biden will keynote the Hawkeye State Dems' Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Des Moines. Remember his great joke at the '07 J-J dinner, just before the Iowa caucuses? "Hello Iowa," the then-Sen said. "And hello Chicago!" The Obama fans in the rafters went wild.
Meek On ESPN: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) will get a little free media today at the Florida Classic, the largest clash between two historically black universities in the country. Meek played for the Florida A&M Rattlers when he was in college, and he'll be interviewed on the sidelines on ESPN as he roots for his team to beat the Bethune-Cookman University Wildcats. The 30th annual matchup pits the 7-3 Rattlers against the 5-5 Wildcats at 2:30 ET.
Gore For Bradbury: Earlier this week, ex-VP Al Gore waded into the OR GOV race, endorsing longshot ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D) over favorite ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D). Bradbury and Gore have been allies, but BlueOregon, a prominent Dem blog points out what makes Gore's endorsement more fun for the ex-veep: He can't stand Kitzhaber.
(REiD WILSON)
FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) -- under fire from conservatives for his famous embrace with Pres. Obama at a Feb. event in support of the stimulus package -- would not embrace ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) today, noting that Palin hasn't offered her endorsement of his FL SEN bid.
Then again, Crist wouldn't say he would accept her support if offered.
Crist's comments, in a brief interview with Hotline OnCall, are the latest indication that many prominent GOPers view Palin more as a liability than an asset -- even if, like Crist, they are courting the right.
Crist has been under fire from ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who has attacked the gov. for his support of the stimulus measure, among other issues. Last week, Rubio earned the support of the Club for Growth, the anti-tax organization.
(FELICIA SONMEZ)
Continue reading "Crist Not Embracing Palin -- Yet" »
A new poll out today from '08 nominee Andy Harris' (R) camp shows him leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD 01) 52-39% in the Eastern Shore-based CD, adding to mounting signs that the environment has shifted dramatically in the GOP's favor in the last year.
Just over a year ago, Kratovil declared victory after a days-long recount gave him a 2,852-vote win over Harris. But a year of tough votes (he voted no on the health care reform bill, and yes on the climate bill and stimulus conference report) -- and the worsening climate for Dems, particularly in CDs that John McCain carried -- have combined to severely damage his re-election chances.
The Tarrance Group poll, conducted 11/15-17 among 300 LVs, shows Kratovil enjoying a 43-30% fav/unfav rating, but 49% of voters say they prefer someone new to represent them, while just 29% say Kratovil deserves to be re-elected. The survey had a margin of error of +/- 5.7%.
Continue reading "MD-01: Harris Leads Kratovil" »
The DCCC, like its GOP counterpart, spent more than it took in during Oct., thanks to the expensive NY-23 special election. Still, it outraised the NRCC, as the Dem cmte took in $3.8M last month. It also outspent the NRCC, shelling out nearly $4M (about $1.1M of which aided now-Rep. Bill Owens' (D) winning campaign).
While the DCCC has more debt than the NRCC ($3.3M-$2M), it has a huge cash-on-hand edge. At the end of Oct., the DCCC had $14.5M in the bank, while the NRCC lagged with just $4.2M.
(TIM SAHD)
The first thing a GOPer thinking of running against Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) should consider: Do I have any idea what I'm in for?
Reid faces dismal approval ratings -- the latest survey, conducted by the independent Research 2000 for the Progressive Change Campaign Cmte, showed just 35% of Nevadans have a favorable opinion of the senior senator, while 54% see him unfavorably. What's more, he trails the two GOP challengers he has been matched against in public polls.
That leaves most political observers to conclude that Reid's only path to victory is to follow NJ Gov. Jon Corzine's (D) footsteps. Corzine, who was never able to move his numbers above the low-40s, sought to criticize his opponent in such a way that made the GOPer less electable than himself.
But Reid will differ in one respect: Corzine began his offensive against Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R) too late, and Christie won the election. Reid has already signaled he will begin his assault early enough to make a real difference. Some GOPers even believe Reid will get involved in their primary.
"Going into this race, I know Reid. Everybody knows Reid, and they know what he's going to do, and not only capable of doing but will do. He's going to get as dirty as you can possibly get," said Danny Tarkanian, a businessman who is polling ahead of the incumbent. "He's going to vaporize us."
Continue reading "GOPers Brace For Reid Assault" »
Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:
SUNDAY
Meet the Press hosts Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT). The roundtable will feature ex-Amb. Nancy Brinker and NBC's Dr. Nancy Snyderman.
Face the Nation hosts Senate Min. Whip Jon Kyl, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and CBS' Dr. Jennifer Ashton.
This Week hosts Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, ex-Clinton Labor Sec. Robert Reich, Liz Cheney and Aspen Institute's Walter Isaacson.
Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and NIH ex-dir. Dr. Bernadine Healy. The roundtable will feature FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and Washington Post's Anne Kornblut.
State of the Union hosts Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, Dem strategist James Carville, GOP strategist Mary Matalin and ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).
See other weekend shows after the jump.
(ABBY LIVINGSTON)
Continue reading "Weekend Lineup" »
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), who backed out of a pledge to resign her seat while pursuing the GOV mansion, used her first TV ad to cast her decision not to resign as a profile in courage.
"I'm going to do everything I can to stop the government takeover of health care, and it's why I'm staying in the Senate through the primary, at risk to my political future," Hutchison says in the 30-second spot. "I cannot walk away while this is pending in Congress."
Hutchison has taken some heat for going back on her pledge to step down sometime this fall, but less so for the decision itself than for the ham-handed way she appeared to handle it. The decision, made last week, came after some Hutchison backers expressed concern about her campaign's perceived lack of progress against Gov.
Rick Perry (R), and it gave Perry opportunities to take fresh shots at his opponent.
But the ad, accompanied by robo-calls to GOP primary voters that push the same message, could be another misstep. GOP strategists and political observers pointed out that Hutchison stays entirely negative in the message and never gives a reason she wants to be GOV.
"There is no real positive message here. The ad is about two things: What she's not going to do, and what she's not going to support," said John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College. "Fine, but what is her plan for Texas? What would she do about health care at the state and national levels?"
(REID WILSON)
Continue reading "Hutchison's First Ad: An Explanation" »
DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has made preparations to avoid a repeat of the GOP sweep of '94, arguing that political observers who say Dems are in for big losses are premature.
"It's going to be competitive, but this is not going to be a 1994 redux," Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall. "We're doing things that are within our control. Now, obviously if you have a super-wave election, that makes it more difficult, but a lot of these elections are decided at the margins."
Not that the '94 wave hasn't been on Dems' minds: Early this year, Van Hollen sat down with ex-Reps. Vic Fazio (D-CA) and Martin Frost (D-TX), two members deeply involved in the '94 elections, to try and learn lessons from that year in order to avoid a repeat.
"We had a thorough discussion to try to learn the lessons," Van Hollen said of the meeting. "They weren't prepared. A lot of people were in denial as late as August, September."
But Van Hollen said danger could lurk if turnout is low, factors that hurt Dem GOV candidates in NJ and VA this year. The DCCC has been working closely with the White House and Organizing for America, Pres. Obama's political organization, to mobilize the voters who showed up last year.
"If you were to see the kind of turnout in the Congressional elections of 2010 that you saw in these off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, that would spell trouble," he said. "But there's no reason to believe that we're going to have that kind of turnout, because voters who came out to support Obama will understand that ... he has a huge stake."
(REID WILSON)
Continue reading "Van Hollen Says Preparation Will Avoid '94 Repeat" »
The electorate is more likely to blame Dems for the economic recession in the latest sign that the '10 midterms could greatly benefit the GOP.
A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows 38% of Americans blame GOPers for economic problems, down 15 points from a May survey. Dems are fingered by 27% of respondents, up 6 points from May.
What's more, even after the $787B stimulus measure, 63% of voters said Pres. Obama has either worsened or had no effect on economic conditions, while 36% say he has improved the economy.
Dems have signaled they will continue to pin the blame on ex-Pres. Bush for the country's bad economic shape. In an interview with Hotline OnCall, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez said his party needs to remind voters how bad the crisis was when Pres. Obama took office, even though unemployment has jumped to more than 10%.
"We will remind people both who bequeathed to the country the hard economic situation we have and who was in power when premiums for insurance purposes went out of the roof and insurance companies were allowed to deny with impugnity," Menendez said. "It will be a clear contrast."
But Bush is no longer in office, and GOPers scoff at the notion that he will play anywhere near the role he played in hurting their party in the '06 and '08 elections. Instead, party strategists point to Obama's approval rating as the key to their success. Some GOP pollsters are already telling their clients to cast the economy as Obama's fault.
(REID WILSON)
Continue reading "Blame For Recession Shifting To Dems?" »
"World News" led with the Ft. Hood investigation. "Evening News" led with health care. "Nightly News" led with Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner's Cong. testimony.
Pols discussed Geithner's job performance 11/19 p.m.
Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX), on whether he expected it go get so "nasty": "No, I didn't. But, the truth is, sort of tired of blaming Bush for everyone. At some point, this White House has to take responsibility for its own decisions. These policies are failing. The public has no confidence anymore. In fact, a majority of Americans disapprove of the way the president is handling the economy. I think the best thing that could happen is for Geithner to step down. And there's more Democrats joining us in that cause."
Brady, on Geithner's involvement in the bailout prior to taking office: "I think he tries to paper over that pretty quickly. He was Fed governor of New York. Wall Street was his purview. His district, his position, on his watch with his friends. And he had key roles to play in the bailouts from day one. So, again, another reason why the tired excuse of blaming it on Bush, well, it is not me that is not buying it. It is the American public is not buying it" ("Your World," FNC, 11/19).
More Brady, on who he would choose to replace Geithner: "My choice would be a conservative Republican who would let the free market work, would address the financial crisis not from a spending binge, but to get our financial house in order. And the credit for small businesses and mid-sized businesses, it is frozen. And I'll tell you, too, local businesses, small and large, they're deferring their key business decisions because they're frightened of what's happening in Washington, D.C." ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 11/19).
After the jump, more on Geithner, Senators address health care reform and ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) book tour continues.
(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX & ABBY LIVINGSTON)
Continue reading "Hotline After Dark -- When I Listen To Him, All I Hear Is Blah Blah Blah" »
The NRCC spent more money than it took in last month, thanks to nearly $900K the committee spent on the unsuccessful effort to win a special election in NY.
The NRCC raised $3.4M in Oct. but spent $3.6M as well. The committee spent $897K on independent expenditures blasting now-Rep. Bill Owens (D) in his race against Assemb. Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman.
House GOPers have $4.2M cash on hand and retain a debt of $2M.
The DCCC declined to provide their monthly fundraising totals early Friday. Reports are due today, and the committee is still crunching numbers.
But Dems will have a significant advantage in the money chase. Through the end of Sept., the DCCC had $14.7M in the bank and about $4M in debt. Dems spent a little over $1.1M on Owens' behalf, according to independent expenditure reports.
(REID WILSON)
Good Friday morning. Who's excited for the big Redskins-Cowboys showdown this weekend? With an 11-point line favoring Dallas, we're guessing not Redskins fans.
Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup on a clear blue Friday, the people who will make news today:
SEN. MARY LANDRIEU: The LA Dem has emerged as perhaps the most important vote in the Senate ahead of the rare weekend session. With Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid's decision to hold a key test vote Saturday p.m., Dems need all 60 members to move forward to a debate, and Landrieu and fellow centrists Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) are getting pressure from all sides as they contemplate their vote. But unlike Nelson and Lincoln, who have made positive but noncommittal statements in the last several days, Landrieu has actually said she is considering voting no.
So, what will Reid and the admin do to win her vote? How about $100M to plug holes in LA's Medicaid insurance program? That little treat is included in Reid's bill, the Baton Rouge Advocate notes. That's not the only pressure she will get: VP Biden, who has spent time on the Hill this week, will be making calls today as well.
Overlooked in the debate: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who says he will filibuster final passage if it has a public option, and Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Susan Collins (R-ME). Reid said 11/19 he's had recent conversations with both of the GOP centrists, he told MSNBC's First Read.
(REID WILSON)
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