Friday, January 27, 2012

January
27

FEC Wrap: Friday News Dump Edition

January 27, 2012 | 6:45 PM

Here's your end of day FEC wrap, complete with several news dumps from some campaigns looking to unload some poor figures heading into the weekend:

Senate:

-- Former Rep. Heather Wilson: The Republican Wilson raised an underwhelming $375,000 and finished with $1.1 million in the bank. That's likely better than Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, who has struggled to raise money, but it's a bit behind the pace set by Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich, who pulled in $483,000 raised and banked almost $1.4 million. Wilson's numbers are not disastrous, but they are nothing to write home about, either.

-- Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock: Mourdock has struggled to raise money and the latest report is no exception. He raised just $386,000 and banked $362,000. He had about $291,000 in the bank at the end of the third quarter. Sen. Richard Lugar has $4 million in the bank, so the disparity is glaring. If Mourdock wants to prove his worth to national conservative leaders in the hopes of winning their support. his latest report isn't going to help very much on that front.

-- Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp: Heitkamp had a good second quarter, raising $500,000 in her first period as a Senate candidate. But she has some catching up to do: Berg finished with over $1 million in the bank at the end of the third quarter.

-- Former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz: Bysiewicz has struggled to raise money throughout her campaign. She announced raising just over $273,000 during the fourth quarter, finishing with $890,000 in the bank. By comparison, Rep. Chris Murphy raised $720,000 and entered 2012 with $2.5 million in the bank.

-- Nebraska state Sen. Deb Fischer: Fischer is running against Attorney General Jon Bruning and Treasurer Don Stenberg in the GOP race but while the other two announced six-figure hauls, Fischer raised just under $67,000. She does, however, notably have more money in the bank than does Stenberg.

House:

-- The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $2.7 million in December, finishing the year with $54.1 million raised and $15.2 million cash on hand. That puts the NRCC on a stronger footing than at this time two years ago. But the GOP is in the majority now, and the majority House campaign committee has outraised the minority by about $20 million each of the last three cycles. This year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $61.5 million, over $7 million more than the NRCC. The NRCC has a cash on hand advantage (the DCCC has $11.6 million in the bank), but the off-year fundraising is a small victory for the DCCC. It's also a reminder of the value holding the White House has across the Democratic Party.

January
27

Poll Shows Kaine/Allen, Obama/Romney Running Even in Va.

January 27, 2012 | 6:29 PM

Virginia is shaping up to be one of the lynchpin states for both parties in their pursuits of the White House and control of the Senate this November, and a new poll shared with Hotline On Call shows the two races at the top of the ticket deadlocked less than 10 months before Election Day.

The poll, conducted in mid-January by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for a private client, shows President Obama and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck, while former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., and former Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine run dead even.

Obama leads Romney in the race for the commonwealth's 13 electoral votes by only one point, 45 percent to 44 percent, well within the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. Eleven percent of likely voters are undecided. Romney leads by five points among independents, but Obama hoards 89 percent of Democrats to inch in front of the former Massachusetts governor.

While Romney runs virtually even with Obama, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich trails the present by a double-digit margin, 49 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Obama also leads Gingrich by 11 points among independents.

January
27

Previewing the Sunday Shows

January 27, 2012 | 5:00 PM

Just two days before the Florida primary, the Sunday Shows are focused on the Sunshine State this weekend.

Face the Nation will broadcast live from Miami, FL, for its first one-hour episode this weekend, finally joining its peers after years of lobbying for a longer time slot. Host Bob Schieffer will be joined by Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who will talk about the Republican presidential race, as well as her own reelection campaign, as well as Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus and Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz who will talk about 2012.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich will make two television appearances on Sunday, stopping by both This Week and Fox News Sunday, where he'll be joined by Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. The latter appearance could prove particularly interesting; Gingrich has taken hits from his Republican challengers for criticizing Ryan's budget plan as "right-wing social engineering" in an appearance on Meet the Press last year.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa, will be on Meet the Press, followed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who is backing Mitt Romney's campaign, and former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., who is backing Gingrich. Florida Gov. Rick Scott will also talk about the Republican race in his home state on State of the Union.

Pres. Obama's State of the Union speech will also be a major topic on Sunday, with Obama adviser David Axelrod stopping by Meet the Press and House Speaker John Boehner responding to the president's call for compromise on This Week.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

January
27

GOP Field Against Bob Casey to Be Narrowed this Weekend

January 27, 2012 | 2:26 PM

In the early stages of the Pennsylvania Senate race, the field of Republicans vying to challenge Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has been described as crowded and without any clear frontrunner. But that could change this weekend when the Pennsylvania GOP state committee meets to decide on an endorsement on Saturday. In the aftermath of the official party selection, three GOP candidates will be left as relevant factors in the race to take on Casey:

The Establishment Choice: GOP operatives in Pennsylvania, including those working for rival campaigns, expect businessman Steve Welch to win the party nod on Saturday. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett, the de facto leader of the Republican Party in the state, endorsed Welch last week, and his political team has been lobbying state committee members on Welch's behalf.

Receiving the backing of the party would automatically vault Welch into the top tier in the GOP field, but the endorsement does not guarantee him the nomination. He faces two major problems moving forward in the primary. First, having never held elected office, Welch is an unknown entity to most Pennsylvania Republicans.

More importantly, Welch switched his party registration to Democrat in 2005, donated money to former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in 2006 and voted for President Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary. While an endorsement from the state party would provide some cover for Welch, his opponents are still licking their chops at the chance to use Welch's past in campaign ads. Welch will also need to raise enough money -- or spend enough of his personal fortune -- to raise his profile in the state.

If the state party endorses anyone other than Welch this weekend, it would likely be Tim Burns, who mounted an unsuccessful congressional bid last year in the state's 12th congressional district. If Burns were to win the endorsement, he would likely occupy the establishment candidate space moving forward. (Burns and Welch have both indicated they will likely drop out of the race without the party endorsement). But at this point, few expect Burns to get the nod, and Corbett's team has been pressuring him to make another run in the 12th.

The Self-Funder:
Tom Smith has earned himself a spot in the top tier thanks to his willingness to pour his own money into the race. The wealthy former coal executive has already put $5 million of his own cash into his bid. He has also earned positive reviews from local conservative groups.

January
27

Kind Leaving Door Open to Walker Challenge

January 27, 2012 | 1:33 PM

One Democratic name to keep an eye on the all-but-certain Wisconsin recall election: Rep. Ron Kind, who is leaving the door open to a possible run and is hinting he will zero in on a decision soon. The LaCrosse Tribune:

Kind wouldn't say if he plans to run for governor -- as many have encouraged him to -- or even if he plans to seek re-election to Congress.

"Right now I've got a full plate, and I'm focused on what I'm doing in Washington," the La Crosse Democrat said Thursday during a news conference on the pending farm bill.

...

Pressed on whether he's ruled out a run for governor, Kind said, "We'll make a decision in a little bit."

Kind is from the western part of the state, a more moderate area that is different from Madison and Milwaukee, something that would make him an intriguing general election candidate. Given that his district is becoming more favorable following redistricting, Kind would be giving up a lot by abandoning a House reelection bid. That, after all was one of the reasons most observers didn't expect him to make a Senate run.

An attorney for the state Government Accountability Board predicted earlier this week that late June could be the earliest an election could be held. The uncertainty centers on how long it will take to certify petition signatures and whether there will be a contested Democratic primary.

That's especially significant for Kind because the filing deadline to run for Congress is June 1 in Wisconsin.

A primary would be held four weeks before a general election and six weeks after the board certifies petition signatures.

A Kind spokesperson did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment.

January
27

Hotline Sort: Tarheel Blues

January 27, 2012 | 8:22 AM

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney performs well in the latest debate, and sees some encouraging news in the latest Q poll of Florida. Meanwhile, the race to replace Bev Perdue is on in North Carolina, but Roy Cooper won't be in the mix. Here's today's rundown:

9) Round two of Bill Maloney versus Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is officially underway in West Virginia, as Maloney, the 2011 GOP nominee, announced his campaign on Thursday.

8) House Democrats like President Obama's confrontational posture toward congressional Republicans.

7) Americans Elect has gained ballot access in Maine, the 15th state in which the group has been granted access.

6) Daily Caller's Matt Lewis spotted a number of errors in a Reuters piece on Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.

5) According to the latest Suffolk University/7NEWS poll of the Florida Senate race, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leads Republican Rep. Connie Mack 42-32 percent, former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner 47-23 percent, former Sen. George LeMieux 46-22 percent and former Army Col. Mike McCalister 45-26 percent.

4) With just over a month to go until the filing deadline closes in North Carolina, the scramble to replace retiring Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue on the ticket in North Carolina has begun. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is running, and Attorney General Roy Cooper -- who many viewed as a top prospect -- is not.

Then there are a whole host of maybes, including: Former Rep. Bob Etheridge, state Rep. Bill Faison, Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, Rep. Mike McIntyre and former state Treasurer Richard Moore.

Progressive Change Campaign Committee is pushing for Rep. Brad Miller, who announced on Thursday that he is not running for reelection. Rep. Heath Shuler is also considering a run. Bottom line: There is no consensus favorite right now, meaning a competitive primary could ensue. That stands in contrast to the GOP side, which has already rallied behind Pat McCrory.

January
27

Stewart Mocks Gingrich's Moon Dream, PLUS: GOP Debate Meets 'Jersey Shore' -- VIDEO

January 27, 2012 | 7:31 AM

Jon Stewart on Thursday lampooned Newt Gingrich's campaign promise to colonize the moon.

Gingrich "realized the Earth is very sick and now he wants to leave it for a younger planet," Stewart joked.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:45 when Jimmy Kimmel presents the "Jersey Shore" edition of the latest Republican debate:













January
26

FEC Wrap: The Latham Show

January 26, 2012 | 5:35 PM

Some notable House/Senate fundraising news from Thursday as we approach Jan. 31:

House:

-- Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, released robust fourth quarter campaign numbers today: $345,000 raised and over $1.9 million cash on hand to start 2012. Latham's campaign is touting the cash on hand number as an Iowa off-year record, but most importantly, it dwarfs that of Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell, his likely opponent. Boswell has yet to release fourth quarter numbers, but his cash on hand was under $400,000 after the third quarter.

-- Matt Doheny, a Republican running in New York's 23rd District, posted a very good initial quarter of fundraising. He raised over $300,000, which goes a long way in the Watertown and Plattsburgh media markets.

Senate:

-- Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., raised $1.4 million and ended 2011 with nearly $5 million in the bank. It's another solid haul for the vulnerable incumbent. Nearly two-thirds of McCaskill's donors gave less than $100. None of McCaskill's GOP opponents have released thier numbers yet.

January
26

Tommy Thompson's Roller Coaster Week

January 26, 2012 | 4:25 PM

It hasn't been Tommy Thompson's best week. But it wasn't without a silver lining.

My colleague Kevin Brennan noted on Tuesday that the former governor ran afoul of some the positions espoused by the current governor, who faces a very likely recall election this year.

Not a smart move; especially when you face an active GOP primary with the Club For Growth and Sen. Jim DeMint already actively working to defeat you.

Then, on Wednesday, Thompson was endorsed by Dick Morris, the controversial onetime Bill Clinton aide whose backing isn't exactly going to win him some much-needed good will from conservatives.

But the news wasn't all bad for Thompson. Despite all of the negative things said and written about the former governor, a Marquette Law School poll released this week showed that 49 percent of Wisconsin voters have a favorable opinion of him, while just 31 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

January
26

Bonamici Stays Positive in Closing Argument

January 26, 2012 | 3:41 PM

A review of the closing TV spots from the two candidates running in Oregon's 1st District special election tells you about all you need to know about the race's likely outcome. Republican Rob Cornilles released an ad on Wednesday that sought to tie Democrat Suzanne Bonamici to disgraced former Rep. David Wu; something of a Hail Mary pass. Bonamici, on the other hand released a TV ad on Thursday that is strictly positive.

"She'll vote to end the Bush tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires. Trim the deficit. And create jobs as a result," says an announcer in the ad. One word -- "Cornilles" -- is noticeable only in its absence.

January
26

The Goldilocks of Missouri Politics

January 26, 2012 | 2:09 PM

Maybe Ed Martin will finally find his bowl of porridge that is just right.

The Show-Me State Republican who began the cycle as a Senate candidate then switched to the race in Missouri's 2nd District has switched once again, this time opting to run for attorney general. And the timing of his announcement is none too coincidental. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Martin's surprise announcement comes just days before his congressional campaign would have shown his latest campaign numbers -- a hint that those fundraising totals were not improving.

Politically, it's not surprising. Martin was up against a very imposing opponent, former Ambassador Ann Wagner, who has run an impressive campaign so far and has put up some head-turning fundraising numbers.

January
26

Perdue Not Running for Second Term

January 26, 2012 | 9:37 AM

Updated at 12:27 p.m.

North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue, widely viewed as the cycle's most vulnerable Democratic incumbent governor, will not seek reelection in 2012, she announced on Thursday.

"I have spent my tenure in office -- and, in fact, my adult lifetime -- fighting for things that I care deeply about. And as anyone who knows me will tell you, I do not back down from tough fights," Perdue said in a statement. "But I understand this: We live in highly partisan times, where some people seem more worried about scoring political points than working together to address the real challenges our state faces. And it is clear to me that my race for re-election will only further politicize the fight to adequately fund our schools. A re-election campaign in this already divisive environment will make it more difficult to find any bipartisan solutions."

Perdue has been plagued by high disapproval ratings. An Elon University poll conducted in late September showed that 51 percent of North Carolina adults disapproved of the job Perdue was doing. Polling earlier in 2011 showed equally weak approval numbers.

Perdue was elected in 2008 in a close race against Republican Pat McCrory, the now former mayor of Charlotte who spent much of 2011 gearing up for a rematch. He announced in December that he will make second bid to become governor.

Lately, Perdue's luck hasn't been good. She was outraised during the second half of 2011 by McCrory and her office's handling of the release of unemployment figures has prompted congressional scrutiny.

With Perdue in the race, Democrats were faced with a tall task. Now, the party must find a candidate capable of taking on McCrory, who has been in campaign mode for many months. Some Democrats see Perdue's decision as an opportunity to make the race about the former mayor.

"My message has been and will continue to be that we must fix our broken government and broken economy and put our North Carolina resources back to work. That's why next week I plan to announce my intentions to seek the honor of serving as North Carolina's next Governor," McCrory said on Thursday afternoon.

January
26

Hotline Sort: Gingrich's Moon Bounce

January 26, 2012 | 8:42 AM

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney's winning the electability argument in Florida, Josh Mandel's absence from state Deposit Board meetings is attracting attention, Tester raises $1.2 million, it's not Miller's time in North Carolina and Gingrich has his sights set ... on the moon. Here's today's rundown:

10) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has carefully navigated social issues as governor -- an attribute that could make him an attractive VP choice.

9) Speaking of VP buzz, Sen. Marco Rubio, whose name will remain atop the speculation short list regardless of the GOP nominee, has some financial issues which could be raised during the vetting process. Reuters:

Rubio owes far more on his $384,000 Miami home than it is worth, and at times has had difficulty paying his mortgage.

He bought the home in 2005 for $550,000 with a $495,000 mortgage. He soon had it appraised for $735,000 and took out a second mortgage for $135,000.

It could cut both ways. Many homeowners have struggled during the economic downturn to keep up with their own payments and Rubio's situation could inspire some empathy. However, as Reuters notes, Rubio has a reputation as a spending watchdog. These tidbits could cut against the grain of that image.

But it's also problematic for the Republican because his income - unlike many struggling Americans - is in the six figures and should sufficiently cover his expenses, including mortgage and loan payments.

8) Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu leads the Republican pack in his own poll of Arizona's Fourth District GOP race. The Public Opinion Strategies survey, conducted Jan. 18-19 shows Babeu at 31 percent, Rep. Paul Gosar at 23 percent and state Sen. Ron Gould at 19 percent.

7) Another productive quarter for Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., who raised nearly $1.2 million during the fourth quarter and finished the period with $3.8 million.

6) Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel hasn't been to a single monthly meeting of the state Board of Deposit, the AP finds. More:

Meeting minutes, news clippings and interviews by The Associated Press show that every state treasurer since at least the early 1980s has some record of attending the Board of Deposit meetings in person. The treasurer serves as chairman

Mandel's fundraising numbers have been among the most impressive of any challenger, but his absence from his official duties and his lack of a campaign trail presence will only lead critics to continue to suggest that his focus has been solely on raising money, at the expense of his government responsibilities.

January
26

Did President Obama Channel Oprah During the State of the Union? -- VIDEO

January 26, 2012 | 7:14 AM

President Obama was a tax-cutting Oprah during his State of the Union address, Jon Stewart said on Wednesday as he reviewed the president's annual address. He wasn't too impressed -- especially by the way the president chose to start his speech.

"You open with, 'I killed bin Laden'?" Stewart asked in outrage. "Does Rick Springfield open with 'Jessie's Girl'? No!"

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:00 when Jimmy Kimmel shows how one member of Congress responded to Obama's lead balloon of a joke:













January
26

Miller Won't Challenge Price

January 26, 2012 | 6:40 AM

Updated at 11:16 a.m.

Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., will retire rather than run against fellow North Carolina Democratic Rep. David Price in a new, merged district, he announced on Thursday morning.

"Because David has represented Wake County and I have represented none of Orange or Durham, I would be the underdog in a primary with David. I have begun campaigns in the past as the underdog, and campaigned with great energy, enthusiasm and joy," Miller said in a statement. "There would be no joy in this campaign."

Miller added that he does "not have an agreement with David to step aside now and run in two years when he retires, as has been widely rumored, nor have I tried to strike any deal. The reality is that if I sat out a term and returned to Congress, I would be starting over for most purposes."

Miller was first elected in 2002. North Carolina's Republican-controlled redistricting process put both Miller and Price in the same district, but Miller said Wednesday he didn't want to put the Democratic Party through a "divisive" primary.

An internal poll from the Price campaign showed Price 21 percentage points ahead of Miller in October. Miller and Price had taken light jabs at each other in the media. Miller had until Feb. 29 to officially file for the seat, but after speaking with supporters recently, Miller decided he couldn't got through with a primary against an old friend.

Miller played a strong role in drawing his current district as a member of the North Carolina state Senate, where he was chairman of the redistricting committee after the 2000 census. The new Democratic-leaning 4th District, in which Miller was contemplating a challenge to Price, reaches from Raleigh northwest to Durham and then takes a sharp turn south and snakes narrowly down to Fayetteville, its southern terminus. It cut away GOP-leaning areas of Miller's old constituency but also parts of his Wake County base, while leaving a little more of Price's old constituency intact.

"His decision today will avoid a divisive primary in the Fourth District if the unfair and illegal maps drawn by General Assembly Republicans are allowed to govern this election. I will continue to fight -- with Congressional and General Assembly colleagues -- to overturn them in court," Price said in a statement.

January
25

DCCC Touts December Fundraising Numbers

January 25, 2012 | 6:50 PM

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $5.3 million in December, capping off $61.4 million of fundraising in 2011, according to figures given to The Hotline. The DCCC finished the year with $11.6 million cash on hand, and it retired its post-2010 campaign debt, which totaled $19 million at the start of the year.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, which has not yet released December numbers, had raised $51.8 million by the end of November and had $14.5 million cash on hand at that time.

January
25

Senate FEC Wrap: The Lingle Life

January 25, 2012 | 5:11 PM

A couple of notable Senate fundraising figures from the day as the numbers keep trickling in ahead of next Tuesday's deadline:

-- Linda Lingle: The former Republican governor put up a huge $1.76 million figure in Hawaii. Lingle, who is known for her strong fundraising ability, easily outpaced the Democratic frontrunner, Rep. Mazie Hirono, who raised $624,000 during the fourth quarter. (It's worth noting that Hirono has $1 million in the bank while Lingle has not released her cash on hand figure).

Expect outside groups on both sides to play in this race, bringing parity to the money chase. But Lingle's early haul is an awfully impressive show of strength.

-- Jon Bruning: Bruning raised over $400,000 and finished the period with $1.7 million in the bank. It's likely to be the best haul in the GOP field, but it's far from impressive. Treasurer Don Stenberg's anemic five-figure fundraising saw a huge boost (he raised about $250,000 in the fourth quarter) after Sen. Jim DeMint's, R-S.C., PAC endorsed him.

Bruning has a huge leg up in the cash on hand race, but his burn rate -- he only raised his cash on hand total from the last quarter by $100,000 despite raising $400,000 during the quarter -- isn't ideal. Still, unless former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey runs, if Bruning emerges from the primary, he'll be all but assured a spot in the 113th Congress.

January
25

Duckworth Cruising in Own Poll

January 25, 2012 | 3:45 PM

If the primary election was held today, it looks like Tammy Duckworth would cruise to the Democratic nomination in Illinois's 8th District. Since it's actually in less than two months, she probably will anyway.

Duckworth, a former Veterans Affairs assistant secretary, holds a massive 42-point lead -- 59 percent to 17 percent -- over former Illinois deputy treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi, according to a Normington Petts poll conducted for her campaign. The poll surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters from Jan. 10 to Jan. 12, with a margin of error is 4.9 percent.

The Illinois primary is scheduled for Mar. 20. From the polling memo:

She holds a three-to-one margin with key constituencies: voters who say the will "definitely vote," voters who voted in at least two Democratic primaries out of the last four, voters age 50 and older, liberals and pro-choice voters.

In addition to her solid vote support, Duckworth is also the choice of 65% of likely voters when asked who has the best chance to beat Joe Walsh in November. Just 13% opt for Krishnamoorthi.

After positives messages from both candidates are simulated, Duckworth maintains her 59% support while Krishnamoorthi is able to climb to just 23%. So while we expect the race to tighten somewhat as Krishnamoorthi communicates his message to voters he neither gains significant traction among undecided voters nor is able to cut into Duckworth's support.

Krishnamoorthi probably will be able to communicate his message in the closing months of the primary campaign, as the memo notes. Though Duckworth outraised him in the fourth quarter, Krishnamoorthi has fundraised well, bringing in over $1 million for the year, and had nearly twice Duckworth's cash on hand at the end of the third quarter. (Fourth quarter cash on hand figures are not available yet.) But as David Axelrod says in the polling memo, "I have never seen anyone overcome a 42-point deficit this late in the race."

January
25

Dewhurst Maintains Big Lead in New Poll

January 25, 2012 | 3:32 PM

Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is maintaining his huge lead in the Republican primary race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, according to a new poll conducted for the Dewhurst campaign.

The survey of 600 Republican primary voters, which was conducted from Jan. 9 through Jan. 11, shows Dewhurst at 50 percent, more than 40 points ahead of former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, who received 9 percent. Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, the favorite among some conservative activists and tea party groups, received 5 percent in the poll. Former ESPN analyst Craig James and funeral home director Glenn Addison finished with 3 and 1 percent, respectively. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Results of the poll were first published by the Austin American-Statesman.

The new poll pushes back against an automated survey released earlier this month that showed Cruz registering in the high teens. Automated polls do not meet National Journal's standards for publication.

January
25

Some Encouraging News For Scott Walker in New Wisconsin Poll

January 25, 2012 | 3:00 PM

Marquette Law School has released the results of a poll in Wisconsin which tests potential gubernatorial candidates and matchups in advance of an all-but-certain recall election later this year. Here are three takeaways from the survey -- the first live caller poll this year to test Walker against potential Democratic opponents -- worth flagging:

-- There is a strong opportunity for Walker to define his opponent: Former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, who announced her campaign the day after Democrats submitted over a million petition signatures in the effort to recall Walker, isn't a household name: Less than half of voters (44 percent) had an opinion of her. State Sen. Tim Cullen, who has also announced that he is running, has just 18 percent name ID.

Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee who is also mulling a bid, is the best known Democrat in the survey: Sixty-one percent could give an opinion of him. He's served in Congress and run for governor twice -- including in 2010 against Walker -- and is still unknown by a significant chunk of the electorate.

Walker's already raising money at a very impressive clip and will be able to hit his eventual opponent in TV ads over and over again. The prospect of a bloody Democratic primary could also raise the negatives of the eventual nominee.

-- There is no clear most electable Democrat: Barrett, Falk, Cullen and former Rep. David Obey run comparably head-to-head against the governor. Walker leads Barrett 50-44 percent, Falk 49-42 percent, Obey 49-43 percent, and Cullen 50-40 percent. One argument that can be used against Falk -- who is expected to secure major labor endorsements -- is that her candidacy plays right into the hands of Walker's campaign, which wants to cast his opponent as a puppet of organized labor. So far at least, she does not appear to be running too far behind Barrett, viewed as a candidate with more cross-party appeal.

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