Consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., recently signed an agreement that seeks to curb the influence of outside groups in the Senate race. Notably, neither received much in the way of PAC donations, at least as percentage of their overall hauls. The New York Times:

Tim Burns is leaving the Pennsylvania Senate race, the Republican announced on Thursday.

"As I said after Saturday's State Committee Meeting, the vote was the first battle in a long process to end the Casey/Obama agenda," said Burns in a statement. "It is a battle that I am committed to pursuing, but not one that I will be doing as a candidate for the United States Senate."

The state GOP endorsed businessman Steve Welch at last weekend's meeting. Burns, who ran for the House in the state's 12th District in 2010, finished third and initially vowed to press on in the race. But on Thursday, he bowed out, acknowledging the difficulty of running without the support of the party.

"When I began this process I put a premium on getting the endorsement of the Republican Party. I thought it was important and have always supported the party's right to make an endorsement," Burns said. "That's why I went to meet with so many leaders across the Commonwealth. Those leaders spoke on Saturday, and while it may not have been the outcome I hoped for, I have always known it would be difficult to carry on without their support."

Burns's exit leaves makes the race largely a three-way competition between Welch, businessman Tom Smith (who wrote his campaign a huge $4.25 million check in the 4th quarter) and former state Rep. Sam Rohrer. Welch and Smith have the ability to self-fund, while Rohrer, running a more conservative campaign, is a significant financial underdog.

Former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles won't run for governor of his home state, a senior Democratic official confirmed Thursday, leaving his party without one of their better-known contenders.

Bowles had seriously considered running to replace Gov. Bev Perdue, who said last week that she would not seek a second term. The state Democratic Party had gone so far as to buy domain names in preparation for a possible bid.

The Democratic primary is still likely to be a crowded affair. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Bill Faison are already in the race, while ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge and Reps. Brad Miller and Mike McIntyre are still considering their own bids.

The eventual winner will start far behind former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the likely Republican nominee. McCrory formally kicked off his long-expected bid on Tuesday with $2 million in the bank and polls that show him popular statewide.

Arizona investor Wil Cardon raised roughly $100,000 and pitched in over $400,000 of his own money, an adviser to the Republican Senate candidate told Hotline On Call on Thursday.

"We raised a little bit over $100,000 and self-funding was $400-450 [thousand]," Cardon adviser Michael Leavitt said on Thursday morning.

"All told it will be close to $600,000," Leavitt said, adding that Cardon's cash on hand total would be about "1.2, 1.3 [million]."

Cardon loaned himself over $800,000 during the 3rd quarter. He raised $402,000 during the same period.

Cardon's haul is well short of what Republican Rep. Jeff Flake raised during the 4th quarter. Flake raised $607,000 and ended the period with $2.56 million in the bank.

When asked how much of his own money he was willing to pitch into his campaign, Cardon would not specify. He's already poured in over a million dollars.

We'll have more later today from our interview with Cardon, who is in Washington.

There goes New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez's day. The Republican running to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman is going to spend his time trying to squash rumors that he'll quit his bid to run for an open House seat instead.

The wound is self-inflicted: A Sanchez staffer, Manuel Gonzales, told the Albuquerque Journal today that the campaign had held "informal conversations" about running for the Albuquerque-based House seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich, who's also seeking the Senate seat. Republicans lost their best potential candidate when businessman Jon Barela said he wouldn't run, and Gonzales said some New Mexico Republicans had pushed Sanchez to seek that seat instead.

Sanchez faces a difficult primary against front-running ex-Rep. Heather Wilson, who leads the GOP field both in polling and in fundraising. Wilson finished 2011 with about $1.1 million in the bank; Sanchez has yet to report his fundraising numbers, a hint that they're not going to come close to matching Wilson's haul.

But he's not quitting yet. "Sanchez has no interest in running for Congress," Corbin Casteel, Sanchez's lead consultant, told us in an email.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort and happy Groundhog Day (six more weeks of winter, says Punxsutawney Phil!). Menendez gets a new challenger in New Jersey, Indiana is now a right-to-work state, Cullen won't challenge Scott Walker and the NRSC outraises the DSCC in December. Here's today's rundown:

7) Indiana is now a right to work state following legislation signed by Gov. Mitch Daniels.

6) The National Republican Senatorial Committee outraised the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in December, $4.5 million to $3.5 million, but both committees raised about the same amount in 2011.

5) Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett had about $415,000 cash on hand at the end of 2011, outpacing former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk by a wide margin. Of course, Falk is likely to win the support of organized labor, so money should not be a major concern for her. Barrett has not yet announced whether he is running in the recall election.

4) Democratic state Sen. Tim Cullen won't be running for governor in the all-but-certain Wisconsin recall election. Cullen was not regarded as a top tier candidate and acknowledged that he cannot keep pace in the money chase against better-known competition.

Meanwhile, the state Government Accountability Board has posted the 1 million petitions signatures (in the effort to recall Walker) online.

Jon Stewart on Wednesday mocked Mitt Romney's remark that he's not "concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there."

"Being in a net is bad, whether you're a butterfly or a fish...or a poor person. If you're in a net, something has gone terribly, terribly wrong," Stewart said.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:45 when Newt Gingrich let's loose on the state of Florida after his loss in the primary there:

Correction: this post previously misstated Berg's fundraising total. He raised $552,000.

2011 is in the rear-view mirror as the money chase grows clearer in several Senate races. The 4th quarter featured some breakout stars (Warren, Lingle) and busts (Mourdock, Shays). Without further ado, here is our list of 4th quarter Senate fundraising winners and losers:

Winners:

-- Elizabeth Warren: Warren had far and away the best fundraising quarter of any Senate candidate, including incumbents. The liberal superstar took in a whopping $5.7 million in the fourth quarter, ending the period with over $6 million on hand. Then, for good measure, she took in over a million more in a day with a "money bomb."

-- Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle: Lingle took in over $1.7 million, easily outpacing Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono, who had a $624,000 haul. And while Hirono has a real primary to contend with (against former Rep. Ed Case, who has yet to announce his fundraising numbers but has consistently raised less than Hirono), Lingle is free to stockpile her money for the general election.

-- Former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona/Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp: These two Democratic candidates began running partway through the quarter in races where Republicans are favored, and both impressed. Carmona raised $570,000 since starting in November, not much less than his potential general election foe, Rep. Jeff Flake (who took in $607,000). And Heitkamp raised just under than $500,000, close to Republican Rep. Rick Berg's's full quarter haul of $552,000.

-- Democratic frontrunners in contested primaries: Frontrunning Democrats in contested primaries put additional distance between themselves and their opponents during the quarter -- see the full post on them here (it's bad news for underdogs like Hector Balderas and Don Bivens).

Some senators with no obvious credible challenger nonetheless raised money at a brisk pace over the last quarter over the year. Here are five senators who aren't letting up despite the lack of clear threat:

-- Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., has $4.6 million on hand after raising $1 million in the quarter. Her closest competitor? Former GOP state Rep. Dan Severson, who raised $46,300 and has $34,000 on hand.

-- Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., raised $1.45 million in the final quarter of 2011, and has more than $4 million in the bank. Her only challenger is GOP state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, a freshman from Spokane who brought in just $120,000 in his first quarter in the race.

-- Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., raised close to $950,000 in the fourth quarter, and her campaign has $6.6 million in its coffers. She has no big-name challenger, and though GOP Rep. David Dreier has been floated as a potential candidate, his own $10,000 haul in the quarter suggests he's not preparing for a run.

-- Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, announced raising $629,000 during the fourth quarter, ending the year with $3.4 million in her war chest. Snowe has primary challengers, but neither has caught fire or demonstrated an ability to raise money. And she does have Democratic challengers -- who only announced campaigns recently -- but she's generally considered safe in the general election.

-- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., raised $1.8 million dollars in the last three months of the year, giving her a total of $8.1 million. Businessman Marc Cenedella, who could have self-funded, just decided against a run. Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos has said he'd spend up to $5 million of his personal fortune on the race, but he has failed to gain traction so far.

George W. Bush is making an appearance in a competitive Senate race. And not in a good way.

Rep. Mazie Hirono's, D-Hawaii, Senate campaign is taking to the airwaves with its first TV ad, a 30-second spot that ties Bush to both the congresswoman's primary and likely general election opponents.

"Mazie Hirono knows we can't go back to the Bush policies that have left America deep in debt," the ad's narrator says.

Hirono's ad mentions neither former Democratic Rep. Ed Case nor former Republican Gov. Linda Lingle by name, but its aim is clear.

"The only candidate for U.S. Senate in either party with the judgment to oppose the Iraq war," continues the narrator.

Politically, Case is to the right of Hirono, and Democrats are already tying Bush to Lingle, so it's a pretty smart ad that allows Hirono to go after both opponents at once without coming across as overly negative.

The underdog Case has already gone up with two TV ads of his own.

Add the Charlotte Observer editorial board to the chorus urging Erskine Bowles to run for governor of North Carolina. The paper hits on some points about the Democrat's background that will likely be repeated over and over in ads and campaign literature if he does make a bid:

Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., outpaced fellow Republican Rep. Don Manzullo during the 4th quarter in a race that pits a veteran representative against a freshman.

Kinzinger brought in $286,000 to Manzullo's $170,000. Kinzinger also has more money in the bank: $651,000 to Manzullo's $523,000.

A redistricting map that favors Democrats in Illinois prompted the freshman Kinzinger to opt for a challenge against the veteran Republican in the 16th District. Manzullo was first elected in 1992.

Kinzinger, who will be just 34 on Election Day, won a tough race against Democrat Debbie Halvorson in 2010, while Manzullo hasn't faced a tough race in recent years.

"Manzullo can't keep this up much longer or the rumors of his possible retirement are going to escalate to the point where they ultimately become reality," noted an unaffiliated GOP operative with knowledge of House races.

Manzullo spokesman Rich Carter dismissed the idea that the congressman might be eying a retirement. "We're ready to go," he said, maintaining that Manzullo has the superior ground operation. "I don't think money will be a factor," he added.

The primary will be held on March 20.

Frontrunning Democrats in contested Senate primaries put some more distance between themselves and their opponents during the 4th quarter, applying further pressure on the underdogs to make up ground in races that are looking more and more one-sided:

-- In Arizona: Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona's impressive $570,000 haul -- in six weeks -- outpaced former state Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens's $230,000 take and additional $160,000 in self-funding. What's more, Carmona wasn't far off Republican Rep. Jeff Flake's $607,000 mark -- and Flake had a full quarter to raise money.

-- In New Mexico: Rep. Martin Heinrich's $483,000 4th quarter easily outpaced state Auditor Hector Balderas's $108,000. The cash on hand disparity is glaring as well: Heinrich has nearly $1.4 million in the bank while Balderas has just $434,000.

-- In Connecticut: -- Rep. Chris Murphy's $720,000 and $2.5 million cash on hand is better than the combined quarterly hauls and cash on hand totals of former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and state Rep. William Tong. Enough said.

-- In Hawaii: Rep. Mazie Hirono raised $624,000 and ended the period with $1 million in the bank. Former Rep. Ed Case still has not released his numbers. That doesn't portend a big figure for him, and Hirono has outraised him in previous quarters.

Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., raised over $231,000 during the 4th quarter and finished the year with nearly $1.16 million in the bank.

Not great numbers, but compared to his GOP primary competitors, the figures stack up pretty well.

Businessman John Brunner brought in about the same amount -- $230,000, and pitched in over $1 million of how own money (though he also spent over $1 million) and finished with only $210,000 in the bank at the end of the period.

Meanwhile, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman's money woes continued into the 4th quarter, when she brought in under $84,000.

Ohio Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel, who has been a fundraising standout so far, waited until the 11th hour to release his 4th quarter numbers, raising questions about whether his pace had dropped off substantially. It slowed a bit, but his numbers are still solid for a challenger. The Dayton Daily News:

It's not dramatically less than Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown's $1.6 million haul.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney wins big in Florida and faces a favorable February calendar. Meanwhile, Bonamici holds David Wu's old seat for Democrats, Cenedella won't run against Gillibrand, and Dave Spence hits the airwaves in Missouri. Here's today's rundown:

8) Mitt Romney is getting Secret Service protection.

7) Check out The Hotline's first Veepstakes Power Rankings of this cycle.

6) The AP reports Adam Hasner will indeed drop his Senate bid to pursue a run for Congress in GOP Rep. Allen West's current district. We confirmed on Tuesday that Hasner was likely to switch as part of a game of musical chairs prompted by West's decision to run in the new 18th District and Republican Rep. Tom Rooney's decision to run in the new 17th District.

5) New York Republican Marc Cenedella has decided against a challenge to Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, saying in a statement released on Tuesday that, "under this accelerated election calendar, is untenable for me from a business perspective. The calendar is too tight for me to do what I need to do politically and professionally to win this seat in 2012."

Cenedella received increased scrutiny following a report about questionable blog posts that appeared on a website under his name.

4) Missouri Republican Dave Spence's first TV ad in the governor's race casts him as a political outsider.

First lady Michelle Obama on Tuesday tried to sell Jay Leno on adding more healthy foods into his diet by bringing apples and honey from the White House to The Tonight Show.

"White House honey? That sounds bad," Leno joked. "With a different president that could mean a whole different thing."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:18 when Jon Stewart and the first lady both react to Mitt Romney's rendition of "America the Beautiful":

Here's a roundup of the most notable Senate race FEC reports that flowed in on Tuesday. The deadline to file was midnight, and we'll have our complete winners and losers list once the remaining reports of interest trickle in.

Montana:

-- Rep. Denny Rehberg raised an underwhelming $656,000 in the 4th quarter and ended the period with $2.1 million in the bank. He finished the 3rd quarter with about $1.8 million in the bank, so he spent more than half of what he brought in during the 4th quarter.

By comparison, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester raised nearly $1.2 million and banked $3.8 million to close out 2011.

As Rehberg's campaign notes, Tester had less than $184,000 cash on hand at this point in the 2006 cycle. And Montana isn't an expensive state. But Tester is the clear 4th quarter money chase winner and should be very pleased with the cash on hand advantage he has built up.

Arizona:

-- Republican Rep. Jeff Flake announced raising just $607,000+ over an entire quarter, barely more than former Surgeon General and Democratic frontrunner Richard Carmona, who raised $570,000 in just six weeks. Flake, having started his campaign earlier, has $2.56 million in the bank, but also has to contend with Wil Cardon -- who has the ability to self-fund -- in the GOP primary,

-- Underdog Democratic candidate Don Bivens raised $230,000 and pitched in an additional $160,000 of his own money, well short of Carmona's pace.

A few solid incumbent hauls:

--Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., raised $1.09 million and banked nearly $4.4 million. But beware the Keystone state GOP self-funders (specifically Tom Smith, who loaned himself a whopping $4.25 million during the quarter).

Updated at 11:25 p.m.

Democrat Suzanne Bonamici will be the next member of Congress from Oregon's 1st District, filling the seat previously held by former Democratic Rep. David Wu.

The Associated Press has called the all-mail special congressional election for Bonamici. With 68 percent of precincts counted, Bonamici, formerly a state senator, led Republican Rob Cornilles 54 percent to 39 percent.

Though the campaign was rocky at times and negative for long stretches, victory was rarely in doubt for Bonamici. Democrats hold a significant registration edge (42 percent to 30 percent Republican, with the remainder unaffiliated with either major party) in the district and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee invested over $1 million in the race to avoid another special election surprise along the lines of last year's upset GOP victory in New York's 9th District, Anthony Weiner's old seat. The National Republican Congressional Committee never offered similar support to Cornilles.

A Cornilles internal poll two weeks ago showed the Republican pulling closer to Bonamici, but public polling suggested the Democrat was maintaining a healthy lead on her rival. That perception was reinforced last week when Cornilles went negative, and Bonamici went positive, in their final television ads.

"Congresswoman-elect Suzanne Bonamici is a champion for Oregon middle class families, consumers, and seniors and House Democrats look forward to welcoming her to Congress," said DCCC Chairman Steve Israel in a statement. "She will solve problems and stand up for the middle class instead of billionaires and Big Oil and help reignite the American dream."

The special election was triggered in August when Wu resigned from Congress following a string of revelations about erratic behavior, capped by allegations of sexual misconduct from the teenaged daughter of a Wu campaign donor. Cornilles, who ran against Wu in 2010, and Bonamici won the ensuing primaries by commanding margins and immediately set into each other with barrages of attacks.

Updated at 7:51 p.m.

Hours before the polls were set to close in Florida's GOP presidential primary, the Sunshine State's congressional politics grabbed headlines with a major shakeup that reshapes three House races and affects the GOP Senate race.

The tension caused by the Florida Legislature's congressional redistricting maps sprang loose, as Republican Reps. Allen West and Tom Rooney decided to run for reelection in new districts, prompting Republican Senate hopeful Adam Hasner to move toward running in West's current 22nd District.

Rooney announced on Tuesday afternoon that he will run in the new 17th District, closely followed by West saying that he will run in Rooney's new 18th District.

Though West and Rooney are moving, the new 17th and 18th Districts are not entirely foreign to either. Thirty-seven percent of Rooney's current constituents will fall in the new 17th District while 23 percent of West's constituents will fall into the new 18th.

Rooney's chosen district contains much of the inland South Central region that he currently represents. However, those counties were severed from Rooney's home along the Atlantic coast, in Tequesta, by redistricting -- under Florida's Fair Districts law, legislators had to make congressional districts more compact this year, and Rooney's old district wound from west to east across the state, sometimes through corridors only miles wide. By taking the 17th District, Rooney is sticking with the GOP base of his old seat: The new 17th gave almost 56 percent of its presidential vote to John McCain in 2008.