Responding to critics who say he wrote his latest book when he should have been conducting official duties, RNC chair Michael Steele said today he wrote the book before he took over the national party last January.
"I wrote this book before I became chairman, and because of the clock and the calendar, I'm doing it now," Steele told radio host Laura Ingraham, on whose show he appeared this morning as part of a book tour for "Right Now: A 12-Step Program For Defeating The Obama Agenda."
But the book itself tells a different story. In its pages, Steele mentions at least 5 people, 1 piece of legislation and 1 term that did not become evident until well after he was elected to head the RNC.
At various points, Steele references Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY) and his 2 rivals for a special election that occured Nov. 3 -- NY Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) and accountant Doug Hoffman (C). He mentions former Miss CA Carrie Prejean, who made headlines when she answered a question on same-sex marriage on Apr. 19, '09.
Steele also refers to Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who wasn't nominated until May 26, '09. Sotomayor was on many legal scholars' and experts' lists as a potential Supreme Court appointee, but she wasn't event contacted by the WH until Apr. 27, and Justice David Souter didn't announce his retirement until Apr. 30.
Cap and trade legislation had been discussed prior to Steele's becoming chairman, but Reps. Henry Waxman (D-CA) and Ed Markey (D-MA) didn't offer their first draft until Mar. 31. And as Steele takes after the health care measure introduced in Congress this year, he spends several pages assaulting the public option -- an issue that was not a major part of the discussion during the '08 WH campaign. The public option was a favorite of some liberals, but discussion of it as a central part of legislation eventually passed by the House until the Spring.
The RNC referred all questions relating to Steele's book to Regnery Publishing. A publicist for Steele said the he has been "working on parts of the book before he was chairman. He's made some updates recently."
Steele has spent the past several days fending off criticism from former RNC chairs, major donors and members of his own committee. After saying he didn't believe the GOP could take back the House, members of Congress became angry, Steele said, because he was telling the truth.
Need a good Friday read? Take a look at Marc Ambinder's 4 funkiest GOP primaries of '10, over at The Atlantic's Politics channel.
Marc's watching FL SEN, CA SEN, KY SEN and MI GOV, all of which offer compelling stories.
And even though the NRSC hates it when we bring this up, we at Hotline OnCall can't get enough of the GOP's primary in NH.
In that state, ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) is the clear establishment favorite. She's been honored at DC fundraisers featuring the Senate's top GOPers, and the NRSC rightly hailed it as a coup when they convinced her to step down from her post to run for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's (R) seat.
As we've seen around the country, though, conservatives voiced quick skepticism about the party's hand-picked candidate. Instead, many conservatives are rallying around atty and '96 GOV nominee Ovide Lamontagne (R) as their alternative candidate. Lamontagne is being advised by several ex-aides to ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, and he's got the potential to take a serious number of Ayotte's votes from the right.
We have yet to see Lamontagne's fundraising prowess, so we'll keep an eye on his performance over the last 3 months.
But wait, there's more: Businessman Bill Binnie is doing what few GOPers have tried this year -- he's running as a centrist. The Portsmouth businessman raised $255K between Nov. 5, when he became a candidate, and the Dec. 31 end-of-quarter date. No small potatoes, to be sure. But Binnie added $1.26M to his own warchest, ending the year with $1.16M in the bank.
Businessman Jim Bender (R) is also running, but he has not proven much of a factor yet. Still, there are 9 months to go before the Granite State primary, which makes this race a lot more tumultuous than prominent DC GOPers would have you believe.
We'll post a link to Marc's list of the funkiest Dem primaries when he's done crafting it.
Ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon's (R) campaign is calling her primary rival -- a former CIA officer and top aide to the Senate Intelligence Committee -- a career politician.
"Dick Blumenthal and Rob Simmons have spent a combined 42 years in elective office," McMahon spokesperson Shawn McCoy told Hotline OnCall. "They are both establishment insiders and people are rejecting career politicians because they want outsiders with real world experience."
Simmons (R) served 3 terms in the U.S. House and for 10 years in the CT House after spending a decade at the CIA, time on Capitol Hill and as a professor at Yale University. But his elected experience is enough, McMahon's camp said, to label him a member of the old boys' club, landing him in the company of CT AG Blumenthal, the likely Dem nominee.
McCoy pointed to the NRSC statement on Blumenthal's Jan. 6 candidacy announcement as proof that voters, and even national GOPers, don't want another establishment insider as Senator.
"Voters won't look the other way when they cast their ballots to restore checks and balances in Washington this November," NRSC spokeswoman Amber Marchand said, attacking Blumenthal. "The last thing the people of Connecticut need is another 20-year member of the old boys' club to represent them in the U.S. Senate."
Marchand's comment was not meant to target Simmons. The NRSC has not picked sides in the race, and top aides have nice things to say about both candidates.
But in an interview last month, Simmons said he wasn't completely inexperienced, which he characterized as a good thing for Connecticut.
"I don't need on-the-job training on how the Senate works," Simmons said. "I know how the Congress works, because I've made it work."
Meanwhile, the Simmons camp welcomed a debate about which candidate's experience is more suitable for the Senate.
"Linda McMahon's 'real world experience' involves running a company that bragged about marketing graphic sexual and violent content to elementary school aged children," said Simmons spokesperson Raj Shah. "She has had to employ lobbyists to fend off indictments and investigations into drug abuse, hazardous working conditions and premature deaths among employees."
A quick look at the latest fundraising reports we've received, beginning with 2 potentially vulnerable Dem incumbents:
Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) raised $360K through the last 3 months, ending the period with $1.4M in the bank. GOPers are newly excited about their chances against Pomeroy given Sen. Byron Dorgan's (D) surprise retirement, but Pomeroy is signaling he won't be taken by surprise.
Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) has a big mouth, and he has a big bank account to go with it. Grayson will report raising about $850K in the 4th quarter, the Orlando Sentinel reports. Over the last 3 months, Grayson has made a number of controversial statements, including taking on ex-VP Dick Cheney, accusing GOPers of wanting sick people to "die quickly" and other remarks that make the NRCC feign outrage.
But controversy brings in big bucks. Just ask Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) about that.
On the candidate front, take a look at these 2 impressive SEN contenders: Ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) pulled in $320K during just the first month of the race, while NH SEN candidate/businessman Bill Binnie (R) raised $255K in 2 months and added another $1.26M of his own. Binnie will report $1.16M in the bank at the end of the quarter.
Ex-US Atty Pat Meehan (R), who just made the NRCC's Contenders list, raised $580K to go on top of the $211K he had already pulled in. Meehan is running for Rep. Joe Sestak's (D-PA) seat as Sestak runs for Senate.
And businessman Randy Altschuler (R) raised $185K in the final quarter, giving him $776K in the bank, according to a GOP source. He's a favorite of the NRCC, but he won't have the primary to himself: Atty George Demos (R) raised $300K in the last quarter without self-funding, which Altschuler has done. Demos still has $275K in the bank.
Altschuler and Demos are facing off for the right to run against Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY) in his Long Island district.
Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:
SUNDAY
Meet the Press hosts outgoing VA Gov./DNC Chair Tim Kaine, RNC Chair Michael Steele and CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). The roundtable will feature NBC's Andrea Mitchell and NBC's Chuck Todd.
Face the Nation hosts Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI). The roundtable will feature New York Times' Peter Baker and CBS' Jan Crawford.
This Week hosts TBA. The roundtable will feature TBA.
Fox News Sunday hosts Senate Min. Whip Jon Kyl, Sen. Jack Reed, (D-RI), Kaine and Steele. The roundtable will feature FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.
State of the Union hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Council of Economic Advisers Chair Christina Romer, Washington Post's Anne Kornblut, Bloomberg's Margaret Carlson, Washington Times' Amanda Carpenter, Dem strategist Donna Brazile and GOP strategist Liz Cheney (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).
A former head of the MN GOP says ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (R) should not be the party's GOV nominee, calling his candidacy a "bad idea."
Ronald Eibensteiner, who chaired the state party from '99 to '05, said in a Friday op-ed that Coleman's nasty '08 race against Sen. Al Franken (D) has left most MNans with a negative impression of the GOPer.
"Within Republican ranks, most activists believe Coleman has strayed too often from core Republican principles. Coleman was a cosponsor of 'cap and trade' legislation that even moderate Democrats are now distancing themselves from because of its tax-raising implications. Perhaps most distasteful to Republicans was Coleman's support for the $700 billion Wall Street bailout in the final months of the 2008 campaign," Eibensteiner wrote.
Eibensteiner cited the '98 GOV race, in which Coleman attracted just 34% of the vote, losing to Jesse Ventura's (I) 37%, and to Coleman's "bungled" handling of the recount that cost him his job.
"It is a virtual impossibility for Coleman to win the Republican endorsement for governor -- his only path to victory is running in a costly primary that would fracture the Republican Party," the former chair wrote.
Coleman has not said whether he will make a GOV bid. Already, GOPers have at least 8 candidates to choose from, including state Aud. Pat Anderson (R), state Reps. Marty Seifert (R) and Tom Emmer, ex-state Rep. Bill Haas (R) and state Sen. Dave Hann (R).
Dems, who also want to avoid a costly and nasty primary, are unlikely to do so. Earlier this week, Ramsey Co. Atty Susan Gaertner (D) said she would disregard the results of the DFL's convention and take her case to primary voters.
The conservative American Future Fund will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on an ad assaulting AG Martha Coakley (D) over the 10 days before she faces voters in a special SEN election.
The group slams Coakley for purportedly saying she would raise taxes while praising state Sen. Scott Brown (R) for pledging support for an across-the-board tax cut.
"Brown opposed the two trillion dollar congressional spending spree that's putting us deeper in debt," the announcer said. "Coakley supports massive new spending and the tax increases to pay for it."
The AFF, based in Des Moines, IA, is spending $400K on the ads around MA, including on pricey Boston network television.
Brown and Coakley face off in a special election to fill the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat on Jan. 19.
The NRSC has not spent any money on independent expenditures in MA, leaving some in the conservative blogosphere incensed that the party isn't doing more to help Brown. Meanwhile, the DSCC hasn't spent money on behalf of Coakley, either.
Could ESPN football analyst Craig James make a decent U.S. Senator? He's certainly not ruling out the possibility.
In an interview with WFAA-TV in Dallas, James said he would not rule out a bid for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) seat if she resigns early, as she has said she would. James would run as a GOPer and describes himself as a conservative.
"I want to be more public in my appearances and be out there to help give back. I'm a Texan, I'm concerned for our country, I disagree with the approach that we're having, the things that are taking place," James said. "And so, whatever door opens up, I'll look at it if and when it opens up."
"I think Americans today, if you placed us back in 1765, it would be the same scenario," the station quoted James as saying. "We've got the American revolution taking place again."
James, who starred as a running back at SMU in college, will keynote a TX Public Policy Foundation lunch in Austin next week. Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Sen./NRSC chair John Cornyn (R) will also be on hand.
James played a key role in the firing of Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach, who allegedly locked James' son, Texas Tech WR Adam James, in an equipment shed after he was diagnosed with a concussion. Leach was fired just before the new year.
One DC-based PR executive pointed the interview out to Hotline OnCall and snarked: "I'm sure his son would be the best campaign manager ever."
The Club for Growth will oppose Sen. Bob Bennett's (R-UT) bid for a 4th term in the Senate, it announced this morning.
The anti-tax Club cited Bennett's votes in favor of TARP, the "Bridge to Nowhere" earmark and spending bills that many GOPers opposed earlier this year. The group also cited Bennett's health care proposal, which it said would increase taxes and spending.
"Bob Bennett is out of touch with the times and with his state, and Utah Republicans have better choices for their candidate in November," Club pres. Chris Chocola said in a statement. "Bennett's record, whether on spending, earmarks, or his disastrous plan for a federal health care takeover, is part of the problem in Washington."
UT GOPers will nominate their general election candidate through a convention process, leaving the decision up to a few thousand activists. That process can be dangerous, even for GOP incumbents; in '08, Rep. Chris Cannon (R) lost re-nomination at the convention to now-Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), who appealed more to conservatives.
Bennett has already drawn several challengers, most recently atty Mike Lee (R), who announced his candidacy this week. The Club did not back a specific candidate, but they made clear it would not be Bennett.
"Utah deserves a pro-growth, free-market reformer in the Senate who will be part of the solution. The Club for Growth PAC will today begin working to help Utah Republicans elect one," Chocola said.
Bennett is the first candidate the Club has endorsed against. In other states, it has announced it will back ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). The Club is backing Sens. Tom Coburn (R-OK) and Jim DeMint (R-SC) for re-election.
Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) is set to headline several events that will attract conservative activists over the coming months, her first public appearances following a widely successful book tour.
Palin will keynote the first National Tea Party Convention at the Opryland Hotel in Nashville, TN, on Feb. 6, following 2 other prominent conservative women, Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN).
In April, she willaddress the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, an annual gathering that attracts anyone who wants to run for the WH (And, by the way, an event sponsored by Villere's Florist, owned by LA GOP chair Roger Villere). Later that month, she stops by Women of Joy, an evangelical Christian organization that hosts a major meeting in Louisville, KY.
But Palin is skipping the Conservative Political Action Conference, another annual affair that features a widely-reported straw poll. Palin aides told Politico the decision to skip the stop came after CPAC organizer David Keene asked FedEx for a massive contribution in exchange for support on a legislative matter.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) accuses Pres. Obama of a "crusade" to bankrupt the country in 2 new radio spots his campaign is running.
The ads, running on conservative radio stations around the state, tout McCain's opposition to Obama's agenda as he seeks to woo conservatives in advance of what could be a tough primary challenge from the right.
"Pres. Obama is leading an extreme left-wing crusade to bankrupt America. I stand in his way every day," McCain says in one of the ads. "If I get a bruise or 2 knocking some sense into heads in Washington, so be it."
Sources say McCain is actively preparing for a potential challenge from ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), who would run to McCain's right. The latest public poll, taken for a group that ran ads on McCain's behalf during his '08 WH bid, shows McCain easily defeating Hayworth, but former advisors and those familiar with AZ politics suggest a Hayworth challenge is something about which to be concerned.
In advance of his re-election race, McCain has taken on a larger role in opposing Obama's agenda, especially on spending.
"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the Obama admin.'s review of what went wrong on the 12/25 attempted attack.
Pres. Obama's reaction to the report on the attempted terrorist attack that took place 12/25 dominated news coverage 1/7 p.m.
MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R) went on "Your World" 1/7 p.m.
Barbour, on Obama's remarks: "I thought what he said, generally, was accurate. What he said, generally, was what needed to be said. The problem is the doing. It's not the talking. ... And we're going to have to see how this administration does. I thought one of the things that the American people appreciated about the Bush administration, after September 11, not one time did the terrorists who were trying to kill us and end our way of life, not one time were they able to attack the mainland United States again."
Barbour, on whether someone should be fired: "I don't know enough of the facts. I can say this. You shouldn't fire somebody for the political effect. You shouldn't fire somebody because somebody else says somebody needs to go. We need to handle this in a real way. This shouldn't be about optics or about politics. This is about problem-solving, except that the problem is a life-or-death problem."
After the jump, more on the report and Obama's reaction.
Happy Friday morning. Another layer of snow on the ground in DC, so if you're out and about, step carefully. Your OnCall editor failed to do so this morning.
Here's Friday's Starting Lineup, an early look at the figures who will make news today:
THE UNEMPLOYED: This morning, the Labor Dept. releases the monthly unemployment rate, a number that will be endlessly cited by Dems or GOPers, depending on the news. It's the beginning of the jobs jobs jobs mantra we're going to hear all year leading up to an election dominated by economic news.
Remember, the unemployment rate December released in early Dec. stood at a flat 10%, down .2% from the Nov. figure. Most economists agree that a serious reduction in the number of people searching for jobs is years off, and even if the rate falls below 10% today, GOPers will still argue it is too high -- and the voting public will agree.
Still, the double-digit mark is a big hurdle, and Dems will claim a short-term win if the rate falls for a second straight month, which it appears likely to do. The economy is improving, but whether it does so fast enough to save Dem seats remains an unknown.
By the way, never be caught off guard by new economic numbers with Hotline OnCall's handy clip-and-save calendar of economic indicators.
PRES. OBAMA: Jobs, jobs, jobs. Obama will make a statement to the press at the WH today when the promised "hard pivot" (even CNBC commentators used the term this morning) to creating new employment begins. GOPers are calling it a second stimulus measure, while Dems want to avoid that term. Either way, it's all Obama will talk about until the situation improves.
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) withdrew from the PA GOV race this afternoon, but did not say whether he'll seek to retain his southeastern PA seat in Congress. "At this point," Gerlach spokesperson Kori Walter told PoliticsPA, "Jim has said he has not ruled anything in or out."
Several GOPers and Dem candidates have already begun raising boatloads of cash for what's expected to be a hotly competitive race in the marginal CD. In '08, Pres. Obama took 58%, but Gerlach has held the seat since its creation in '02.
Businessman Steven Welch (R) -- who had already put more than $500K of his own cash into the race -- and state Rep. Curt Schroder (R) head the list of GOPers in the contest. Three Dems were also competing, including physician Manan Trivedi (D) and ex-Philly Inquirer columnist Doug Pike (D). Trivedi had $121K in the bank at the end of the 3rdQ, while Pike has given his camp. over $600K for the contest.
Dems were confident they'd compete in the CD whether Gerlach runs for re-election or not. "Democrats have a strong slate of candidates in the district who are committed to turning the page on the George Bush economic agenda that Republicans like Jim Gerlach have come to epitomize," DCCC spokesperson Shripal Shah wrote in a statement. "The suspension of his gubernatorial campaign doesn't change our focus moving forward."
In the GOV race, Gerlach's move clears the way for AG Tom Corbett (R) to claim the GOP nod. Gerlach had been the underdog in the race to the two-term AG, and had trouble gaining traction. In the last Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted in mid-Dec., Corbett led Gerlach 38-12%. State Rep. Samuel Rohrer (R) remains in the contest, but Corbett has the clear edge in the primary.
Gerlach cited the difficulties in raising a large amount of money as the reason for his withdrawal. "While we have successfully raised over $1 million, traveled thousands of miles all across this Commonwealth and signed up more than 19,000 supporters eager to help us win, today's media-driven campaigns require four times that amount to wage a successful primary," Gerlach wrote in a statement. "That left me with two choices: either spend all of my time raising money with little time left for meeting with voters; or withdrawing my candidacy and working even harder to serve the public. I am choosing to serve the public.
MA Treas. Tim Cahill (I) has picked a former GOPer to serve as his running mate during his 3rd-party bid for GOV.
Cahill will tap ex-state Rep. Paul Loscocco as his running mate, choosing a conservative after several other candidates rebuffed his advances. At least 3 other candidates -- including state Sen. Scott Brown (R), running for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat -- turned Cahill down before Loscocco said yes.
But even aside from being turned down, Cahill will have questions to answer about his new running mate. Loscocco contributed the maximum allowed, $500, to health care company CEO Charlie Baker (R) and hosted a fundraiser on his behalf, the Boston Globe reported.
Loscocco approached Baker's campaign about serving as his running mate, both the Globe and the Boston Herald said, leaving GOPers scratching their heads over his decision to leave the party and join forces with Cahill.
Cahill, elected in '06 as a Dem, is challenging Gov. Deval Patrick (D) and the winner of the GOP primary. In that race, Baker faces businessman and '06 independent candidate Christy Mihos (R). In '06, Mihos won 7% as an independent candidate.
The race has candidates positioning themselves awkwardly before the general election. Cahill is running as a fiscal hawk and positioning himself to the right of Baker on social issues. A source points out that Cahill is the only leading candidate with a pro-life running mate, while Baker's choice to be LG is pro-choice.
Strategists for all 3 leading candidates will then try to figure out if Cahill's candidacy robs votes from Patrick, given Cahill's Dem pedigree, or if he will sap GOP votes from Baker, given his issue positions. Cahill is likely to make a dent in the race, though; the source said Cahill will put some of his own money into the race.
A poll of GOP insiders suggests that ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has little support among the party's professional class -- and maybe that's just how she wants it.
In a survey of 109 party leaders, political professionals and pundits, Palin finished 5th on the list of candidates most likely to win the party's '12 WH nomination. Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) was the overwhelming choice of the
Voters were asked to rank 5 candidates in the order of likeliness to capture the GOP nod. The results:
Likely To Win WH'12 Nomination (First place votes)
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney 81 points (62%) MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty 46 (9%) Sen. John Thune 38 (12%) MS Gov. Haley Barbour 28 (6%) IN Gov. Mitch Daniels 25 Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin 25
Rounding out the top 10: Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal. Candidates other than Romney, Pawlenty, Thune and Barbour split the remaining 11% of first-place votes.
Meanwhile, Dem insiders too think Romney is the most likely candidate to run against Pres. Obama next year. The results, from interviews with 111 Dem insiders:
And Dems are even less convinced Palin is a serious candidate. Just 3% of Dem insiders said she would be the candidate running against Obama in '12.
Then again, Palin fans can take heart, given just how long candidates have to go until the first nominating contests. In '06, insiders predicted that ex-Sen. George Allen (R-VA) would be the GOP nominee, and that Sec/State Hillary Clinton would easily win the Dem nomination.
For more from the National Journal Insiders Poll, check out tomorrow's issue.
House and Senate leadership aides are furious with RNC chair Michael Steele and have angrily confronted the RNC's press shop over their inability to keep the chair on message.
In the course of a regular daily conference call between senior Congressional communicators, House and Senate aides berated RNC staffers over Steele's comments that the GOP would not be able to take back the House, and that even if they did, the party would not be prepared to lead.
A senior Senate aide brought up Steele's comments, arguing that he was ruining what should be several days of glowing press for the GOP in the wake of retirement announcements from Sens. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Chris Dodd (D-CT).
"Steele is setting us far back with his comments and it needs to stop," the aide said, according to 2 sources who were on the call.
RNC research director Jeff Berkowitz called the Senate aide out of line, but the Senate aide called Steele a "fool," sources said.
In an effort to soothe feelings, a senior House aide interrupted and said he sympathized with RNC aides. But, he added: "You're putting our bosses in tremendously difficult situations."
A senior RNC press aide admitted the shop had no control over Steele's interviews as he embarks on a book tour to sell his blueprint for a GOP comeback. Steele has hired a public relations firm, the RNC aide said, and the press shop has no control over when interviews are scheduled.
After an awkward silence, another aide spoke up: "You really need to have him be quiet." The call ended shortly thereafter.
On today's daily conference call, the RNC offered no information on their daily schedule.
Even a private venting session in which top aides were allowed to voice their frustration has not slowed criticism. Berkowitz made the point that Steele has tried to walk back his comments through several appearances on other news outlets, but Congressional aides said he hasn't done enough.
"He has made no progress in walking back the recent comments. In fact, he dug the hole deeper by appearing unprepared and uneducated" on his party's actions on the Hill, a top House aide told Hotline OnCall. "Aides are collaborating with each other, both on and off the Hill, on ways to keep him quiet."
A call to the RNC's press line seeking comment went to voicemail.
Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is seriously exploring a bid against Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), according to sources with knowledge of his plans.
Hayworth has been in touch with consultants to gauge their interest in working for his potential candidacy, and he has made several high-profile appearances of late. That indicates the buzz about a bid is more than just a ploy to pay off old legal debts, as many AZ politicos had suspected.
"Hayworth's biggest obstacle is his personal finances, but being in the U.S. Senate is a lifelong pursuit for him," said one GOPer familiar with AZ politics. "I'd be surprised if he didn't run."
Hayworth lost his seat to Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) in the '06 Dem wave. But in recent months, he's made several indications he may challenge McCain. Hayworth uses his daily radio show to lambast McCain regularly, and one public poll, from Rasmussen, indicated he could have a chance if he ran.
McCain aides are planning as if Hayworth will run. As an indication they are aware of the threat, McCain's campaign has just purchased advertising time on the radio station where Hayworth hosts his show, KFYI, and they plan a major ad buy while Hayworth is on air, said a source with knowledge of the plans.
McCain has 2 radio ads running on stations around the state, according to a top aide.
Hayworth visited DC in Dec. to meet with supporters, and he has already contracted a polling firm, sources familiar with his thinking say. He was the headliner at a holiday fundraiser held by popular Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Money from that event went to help pay down Hayworht's legal debt.
Meanwhile, the only live-call poll of the potential matchup so far shows McCain in a commanding position. The Tarrance Group (R) survey, conducted Dec. 8-10 for the Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, showed McCain leading by a 57%-36% margin.
Interior Sec. Ken Salazar will not run for CO GOV, 3 sources confirm.
The surprise decision comes just 2 days after Gov. Bill Ritter (D) said he would not seek a 2nd term. Salazar was widely seen as Dems' preferred candidate, and he received reluctant blessing from the WH to return home to run.
With Salazar out, speculation will turn to Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D), who Salazar will endorse. At a press conference yesterday, Hickenlooper said he will spend the next several days considering a candidacy.
Hickenlooper remains one of the most popular Dems in the state. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R) is the clear favorite on the GOP side.
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) will make his first public appearance in NH since the '08 pres. campaign during his upcoming book tour.
Romney will head to the Granite State for a 2-day swing Apr. 7-8, the New Hampshire Union Leader's John DiStaso reports. While on tour, Romney will give an address at St. Anselm College's NH Institute of Politics before signing books at a Manchester bookstore.
The next day, he will keynote a "Politics and Eggs" breakfast -- a traditional NH political stop -- in Bedford.
Romney has a home in Wolfeboro, so it's not uncommon that he is in the state that hosts the first pres. primary contest. But it will be his first public event in NH since Election Day '08, when he was in Manchester.
Spokesperson Eric Fehrnstrom said the rest of Romney's booktour is not available yet. Romney's book, "No Apology: The Case for American Greatness," comes out in March.
Ex-IA Gov. Terry Branstad (R) made official Thursday his bid to get his old job back, giving Hawkeye State GOPers an excellent chance to pick up another chief executive seat.
Branstad's campaign used its Twitter account to roll out a 4-day announcement tour beginning Jan. 19. The former 4-term governor will hit 17 cities during the tour.
After 4 terms in office, from '83-'99, Branstad remains one of the most popular figures in the state. His approval rating, according to the latest public survey from the Des Moines Register and Selzer & Co., showed 60% of IA voters view him favorably.
Branstad leads Gov. Chet Culver (D) by a 57%-33% margin, according to the poll conducted Nov. 8-11. Culver leads all 3 other GOP contenders by significant margins, but he never breaks the 50% barrier. Just 40% of IA voters approve of the job Culver is doing in office, while 49% disapprove.
State Reps. Chris Rants (R) and Rod Roberts (R) and '06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats (R) are also seeking the GOP nomination.
Update: A tipster reminds us that state Sen. Jerry Behn (R) dropped out and endorsed Branstad before the holidays.
Atty and anti-tax activist Patrick Hughes (R) has launched his first ad, a broadside accusing his primary opponent of being too liberal for a GOP primary.
Hughes, an underdog who is spending his own money in the IL SEN contest, says Rep. Mark Kirk (R) amounts to little more than "Nancy Pelosi-lite" in the 30-second spot. Hughes has sought support from Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who has endorsed several other conservative challengers through his Senate Conservatives Fund.
"Republicans in Congress aren't doing what Republicans are supposed to do. We're supposed to be the party of conservative values and fiscal responsibility," Hughes said, slamming Kirk for voting for bailout and cap and trade legislation.
"America used to be a 2-party system. And now it's a choice between Nancy Pelosi and Nancy Pelosi-lite," he adds, next to a photo of his primary foe.
The percentage of those calling themselves Dems has fallen to below 50% for the first time since '05, while the number of people who consider themselves conservatives rises.
According to Gallup surveys, 49% of Americans identified themselves as Dems, down from 51.5% in '08. The 2.5-point drop over a year, though, does not tell the whole story; the number of voters who identified with Dems fell a total of 4.5 points between March and Dec.
Meanwhile, the ranks of self-identified GOPers swelled over the same period last year, rising from 38.7% to 42.2%. In short, Dems went from a 13-point advantage in March to just a 5-point edge in Dec.
The number of independent voters who said they leaned toward the GOP rose from 11% of the entire electorate in the 1st quarter of last year to 15.2% in the 4th quarter. Dem-leaning independents shrank from 16.4% to 14.2% over the same time period.
Meanwhile, as the GOP increasingly identifies itself with conservatives over moderates, the number of conservatives is on the rise, the Gallup polls found. Today, 40% of Americans consider themselves conservative, while 36% say they are moderates and 21% call themselves liberal.
The rise of conservatives -- those who consider themselves such grew from 37% in '08 -- has been fueled, again, by voters who do not associate themselves with either party. In '08, 30% of independents called themselves conservative; now, that number is 35%.
Over the past decade, though, it has been self-identified GOPers who have contributed most to the conservative movement. Now, 71% of GOPers say they are conservative, 9 points higher than the number of GOPers who said they were conservative in '00, '01 and '02.
Dems have also grown increasingly liberal. At the turn of the century, 29% of self-identified Dems said they were liberal. Now, that number stands at 38%. 39% of Dems say they are moderates, and 21% call themselves conservative, a gap that has narrowed as fewer Dems identify as moderates.
Counter to conventional wisdom, the number of independent voters has actually declined over the past decade. As partisanship rankles DC, the American public is increasingly identifying as members of one party or another. In the '90s, 36.8% of Americans called themselves independent, while 34.8% over the past decade have said the same.
Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) doesn't like the conventional wisdom that AG Richard Blumenthal (D) has a tremendous lead in the CT SEN race.
On the day Blumenthal entered the race, Simmons' camp pushed back against an automated poll that showed the Dem leading both GOP contenders by wide margins. Simmons aides released an internal polling memo showing Blumenthal has his own weaknesses to contend with.
The memo, penned by Public Opinion Strategies partner Neil Newhouse, doesn't actually release any numbers, but it does suggest that Blumenthal's record is in for a thorough scrubbing. Newhouse expects Blumenthal's numbers to improve as he enters a "political honeymoon," but they will drop as he takes positions on key issues before Congress.
A key point GOPers are pushing about Blumenthal: He hasn't faced a tough contest since his '90 campaign, and either Simmons or ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), when they emerge from the primary, will give him one. But, Simmons' camp acknowledges, the road to victory is different now than it was when they were running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D).
"Obviously, we are in a different race now than we were 24 hours ago, and Blumenthal is the flavor of the day," Newhouse wrote. "[T]his race will be a war of attrition, with Blumenthal slowly losing support over time as he makes it known where he stands on the issues of the day."
Several pollsters are in the field already, or are going in the field soon. Keep an eye on Blumenthal's favorable rating; the more people like him and the fewer who are truly undecided about him, the harder it will be to win that war of attrition.
"World News" led with Pres. Obama's orders for a surge in air marshals. "Evening News" led with the 12/25 attempted terror attack investigation. "Nightly News" led with the winter freeze.
Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) made the TV rounds last p.m.
Dorgan, responding to Dems who are "angry" he's leaving: "I served 40 years in statewide elective office. One of the news people today said, do you think you have betrayed your state by leaving? I said, after 40 years? I mean, that's a pretty sizable career. ... Incidentally, this seat itself is not the only one in play. You've got, I think, six Republicans that are retiring. A number of those seats are in play."
Dorgan, on whether Dems will "hold on to the Senate" in Nov.: "Hold on to the Senate. Yes, of course. You know, 60 votes, I don't know. ... There are a number of Republican seats of retirees on the Republican side that are going to be in play. My hope is that the Democrats will retain the 60 vote control in the Senate, but we'll see" ("Campbell Brown," CNN, 1/6).
Dorgan, on whether the "tough political climate" that influenced his decision: "It really has not. I've run statewide in 11 elections, been very successful and would have been successful this year had I run for election, no question in my mind about that. But the question for me is, when is it time to move on to do some other things? I'd much, much rather have them ask the question, why did he leave so soon rather than why did he stay so long?"
After the jump, more on Dorgan, MSNBC's Ed Schultz and ND Gov. John Hoeven (R) eye his seat, and CT AG Richard Blumenthal (D) looks at Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-CT) seat.
Good Thursday morning. Who are you rooting for in tonight's NCAA championship? It sounds cheesy, but we just want to see a good game. There hasn't been one since the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.
Here's Hotline OnCall's Starting Lineup, your preview of the people who will make headlines today:
SEN. KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON: It's a cliche for a candidate to say they are running like they're 10 points behind, but in this case, it's probably warranted. Hutchison has not gained a lot of traction in her bid against TX Gov. Rick Perry (R), and time is running out before the state's March 2 primary.
Hutchison will be rooting hard for her UT Longhorns tonight, and TX voters watching the game will see a 30-second spot in the middle of the game touting her candidacy. The ad is much like one Hutchison released earlier this week, accusing Perry of advocating for more toll roads. The only difference we spotted: A "Hook 'em Horns" sign in the background.
Is this the "game-changer" that campaign manager Terry Sullivan promised? Hutchison may need a longer hail mary to actually score with TX GOP voters.
SENS. BLANCHE LINCOLN AND BEN NELSON: We've heard this tune before. Nelson has taken heat for his vote in favor of health care legislation, but he got a great deal for his state. Lincoln, who faces voters this year, is pitting herself against that deal that secured Nelson's vote. The Cornhusker Kickback, as GOPers are calling it, should be removed from the bill, Lincoln said.
Meanwhile, SC AG Henry McMaster (R), leading the charge of state prosecutors threatening to sue over the legislation, got a boost when OK AG Drew Edmondson became the first Dem to join his crusade. Like McMaster and many of the other AGs who have signed on, Edmondson is running for an open GOV seat this year.
Pres. Obama is about to lose his first cabinet officer just a year into his term, as Interior Sec. Ken Salazar has gotten WH clearance to return home to seek the GOV mansion.
Sources told the Denver Post that Salazar was encouraged to stay in the admin, but that the WH would support his decision to return to CO to run for the seat left vacant by Gov. Bill Ritter's (D) surprise retirement announcement.
Salazar did not comment on his future plans during a conference call with reporters.
Meanwhile, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D), along with Salazar perhaps the state's most popular politician, will hold a media availability later today to discuss his own interest in the race.
In his remarks officially announcing his retirement, Ritter said he needed to leave public office in order to be closer with his family.
"I have not found the proper balance where my family is concerned, and I have not made them the priority they should be. So today I'm announcing that I'm ending one of my roles. I am no longer a candidate for re-election in 2010," Ritter said, calling his decision to step aside "intensely personal."
We won't do a post every time a hotshot candidate announces he or she has raised big bucks, but here's what we learned today:
A GOP source tells us ex-US Atty Tim Griffin (R), challenging Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR), will report raising north of $250K for the 4th quarter, nearly twice what he raised in his first quarter as a candidate.
'08 VA-11 GOP nominee/businessman Keith Fimian (R) will report having nearly $500K in the bank after the past 3 months. At the end of September, Fimian had $263K in the bank and $230K in debt, in the form of loans to his own campaign. No word yet on how much of that debt he's retired.
Fimian lost his '08 race by a 55%-43% margin to Rep. Gerry Connolly (D).
Atty Ann McLane Kuster (D), running to replace Rep. Paul Hodes, pulled in $206K over the past 3 months, ending the year with $550K from 1,200 donors, according to a release first reported by the New Hampshire Union Leader.
And the NRCC has rewarded 3 challengers by promoting them to the 2nd tier of the Young Guns program. Griffin, MS State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) and ex-US Atty Pat Meehan (R) are all "Contenders," joining 10 other GOP candidates who have already reached that level.
EMILY's List pres. Ellen Malcolm, founder of the nation's largest network of donors aimed at electing pro-choice women Dem candidates, is retiring, the org. announced today.
Malcolm, 62, will remain on as chair of the advocacy group's board, and plans to stay very involved with the group. But she will be replaced as pres. by Stephanie Schriock, a veteran Dem operative.
Schriock, 36, previously managed Sen. Al Franken's (D-MN) '08 campaign and as national finance director to ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean's '04 WH bid. She is currently Sen. Jon Tester's (D-MT) chief of staff.
"Stephanie Schriock brings not only the experience and dedication we were looking for, but she also comes with a burning passion to help elect pro-choice Democratic women candidates to office," Malcolm said in a statement. "We look forward to the energy and new ideas she will bring to EMILY's List."
Schriock praised Malcolm's work, crediting it with "fundamentally" changing the face of Congress.
The group, which can play an influential role in Dem primaries, has already announced its endorsements of 22 candidates this year. The group raised $43M for the '08 elections.
Ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R ) are welcoming AG Richard Blumenthal's (D) entry into the '10 SEN race in very different ways.
"Attorney General Blumenthal has provided good service for our state," McMahon said later on MSNBC. She reiterated the sentiment on local radio station WPLR.
Simmons, meanwhile, said Blumenthal will "have to answer for certain policies he pursued as attorney general."
"Blumenthal has had a relatively comfortable run," Simmons said. "But he has not been in a tough race for many years."
McMahon isn't likely to continue praising the candidate she would most likely face if she wins the GOP nomination. But she will have ammunition if she makes it that far. Simmons is right that Blumenthal hasn't faced a real re-election fight since he first won in '90, and we hear the NRSC has already dispatched a research squad to comb through his files.
With less than two weeks remaining until the 1/19 special for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D) seat, MA AG Martha Coakley (D) released her first TV ad today.
In the 30-second spot, which makes no mention of Kennedy or Coakley's rival, state Sen. Scott Brown (R), Coakley touts her record of standing up for MA families as the state's top prosecutor. Brown has already released two TV ads.
Ted Koppel remains a top candidate to take over ABC's "This Week," ABC insiders believe, confirming earlier reports that he could replace now-GMA anchor George Stephanopoulos.
While most of the attention has been focused in the last few weeks on ABC correspondents Jake Tapper and Terry Moran because of their test runs over the past several weeks, Koppel is a very real possibility, the sources said.
ABC brass faces an interesting dilemma, akin to an NFL team in search of a new quarterback: Go with the proven but older champ, or the hungry rookie?
In the ratings war, "This Week" has had a year of strong momentum as it closes in on "Meet the Press." Koppel offers the appeal of a loyal following from his "Nightline" days and decades of gravitas. On the other hand, a younger anchor like Tapper or Moran offers a long term vision for the program.
While Koppel and PBS' Gwen Ifill are oft-noted contenders for "This Week," the two are also rumored to be in contention for the other opening at CNN's "State of the Union," and were both mentioned for "Meet the Press" in '08.
Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) acknowledged the political challenges he faced in making his decision to retire after 5 terms during an emotional speech at his home in East Haddam.
"I'm very aware of my present political standing here at home in Connecticut," Dodd said. "But it is equally clear that any certain prediction about an election victory or defeat nearly a year from now, would be absurd."
Citing a difficult year in which he managed several major legislative initiatives, lost a sister and fought cancer, Dodd said the moments, taken together, "have given me pause, and to take stock, and ask the question that too few of us in elected public life ever do - why am I running?"
He asked himself that question after voting for landmark health care legislation, which passed the Senate Dec. 24. After that vote, Dodd visited the grave of his close friend, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, and began mulling his choices.
"None of us are irreplaceable. None of us are indispensible. Those who think otherwise are dangerous," Dodd added. "In the long sweep of American history, there are moments for each elected public servant to step aside and let someone else step up. This is my moment to step aside."
Dodd, who has come under fire for his associations with CountryWide and other financial institutions as chair of the Senate Banking Committee, acknowledged he had fallen short at times.
"You have honored me beyond words with your confidence," Dodd told voters. "Let me quickly add that there have been times when my positions and actions have caused some of you to question that confidence. I regret that."
Praise for Dodd swept in throughout the morning. Both of Dodd's opponents, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) and ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) each issued statements, as did Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid.
" know how much of an honor it has been for Chris to serve the people of Connecticut and how truly difficult this decision was for him to step away," Reid said in his statement. "His warm personality, sense of humor and optimistic spirit has won him great respect and many friends on both sides of the aisle."
CT AG Richard Blumenthal (D) will announce his candidacy just hours after Dodd left the race. Blumenthal, according to polls released as Dodd was announcing his retirement, leads both potential GOPers by a wide margin.
Update: Both Pres. Obama and VP Biden released statements praising Dodd. Biden called him "one of my best friends in life," while Obama said Dodd's leadership in the Senate would be missed.
Here's a splash of cold water for the House GOP: As First Read brings up today, no party has taken back the House without also winning back control of the Senate.
GOP chances of winning the House aren't good to begin with -- the party could win 39 seats and still face a minority in Congress -- but their chances of winning the Senate are even lower.
The NRSC has produced strong, A-level recruits in CO, DE and IL. It has the prospect of another strong recruit in ND Gov. John Hoeven (R), now that Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) has announced his retirement. And there are good, but not great, candidates running in AR, NV and PA. A competitive primary in CT also gives GOPers a chance to pick up an open seat, now that Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) is out of the contest.
That's 8 states. The NRSC will point to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) as potentially vulnerable, but to reach the 11 states they would need to take back the Senate, the party would have to put some combination of Sens. Patty Murray (D-WA), Russ Feingold (D-WI), Ron Wyden (D-OR) or Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) at risk.
That seems a tall order, even in a year when GOPers have a serious wind at their back.
But hey, no party had ever gained 20+ seats in the House 2 cycles in a row until Dems did it in '06 and '08. Maybe history is made to be rewritten.
First Read's opening this morning: "As one of us continually stated during the '06 cycle, no political party in recent times has regained control of the House without also taking back the Senate." That sounds familiar. Maybe it's because that person was your OnCall editor's boss at the time.
At long last, GOPers have convinced a prominent recruit to face off against outspoken Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL), ending a string of setbacks that have plagued the party.
State Rep. Kurt Kelly (R) will challenge Grayson, he said in a statement released late yesterday. Kelly ripped Grayson for overspending and said he would offer a character contrast to the Dem, who has made headlines for what are perceived as rude comments directed at GOPers.
Kelly will face a number of lesser-known contenders in the GOP primary, including atty Todd Long (R), who came within 6 points of upsetting then-Rep. Ric Keller (R) in the '08 primary; and businessman Bruce O'Donoghue (R), a favorite of some in DC who see his ability to self-fund much of the race as a major asset.
Kelly will face a challenge in introducing himself to the district's Orlando base; he currently represents part of Marion Co. and the city of Ocala, north of Orlando. But his candidacy gives GOPers a real chance to defeat an incumbent.
That it is Grayson, an incumbent who revels in irking the GOP as much as he can, is an added bonus. Still, Grayson has deep pockets, and he showed a willingness to spend his own money in beating Keller. The race, regardless of who the GOP nominee is, is far from an easy pickup.
Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), the only GOPer making active noise about a possible WH '12 bid, will make his 2nd trip to SC this weekend to meet with conservative activists.
Santorum will headline a gathering called Awakening, a group of conservative activists meeting in Kiawah. The next day, he will headline a fundraiser for the SC GOP in Charleston.
It's Santorum's second trip to the Palmetto State. In Dec., he headlined a fundraiser for Rep. Gresham Barrett's (R) GOV race.
A top ND Dem has asked MSNBC host Ed Schultz to return to his native state and run for Senate, Schultz said today.
In an interview on MSNBC, where he hosts a nightly program, Schultz said he got a call from state Rep. Merle Boucher (D), the House Min. Leader, asking him to consider a bid. Schultz said he had worked hard to get where he was in his career, but he refused to rule out a bid.
"I'm flattered. I'm honored. I can't say that I'm even considering it right now," Schultz said. "I'm in a different place right now. So we're a long way from any kind of consideration."
Still, Schultz sounded like he was taking the prospect of challenging Gov. John Hoeven (R) -- the likely GOP candidate -- seriously.
"I personally think that he's vulnerable in a lot of areas. He's going to be challenged in a lot of areas," Schultz said.
The DSCC refused to say whether they had reached out to Schultz, citing a policy against revealing conversations with potential candidates.
Meanwhile, some are beginning to point to ex-ND AG Heidi Heitkamp (D), who ran against Hoeven in '00. Heitkamp lost that race by a relatively narrow 55%-45% margin. Dems say she could emerge as a potential outsider candidate.
Contributing Editors: John Mercurio, Quinn McCord, Tim Sahd, Maura O'Brien, and Abby Livingston
Contributing Writers: Holly Noe, Ian Faerstein, Rachelle Douillard-Proulx, Sean J. Miller, Steven Shepard, and Felicia Sonmez
On Call editors reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments. The Hotline, National Journal Group, Inc. and Atlantic Media Company are not responsible for the content of the comments that remain.
