From The Counterintuitive Logic File
While Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) is one of the most vulnerable Dems up for re-election this year, she may benefit from an unusually strong GOP field. While that may sound counterintuitive, Washington State's late primary (the third Tuesday in September) would leave the winner of a GOP primary just seven weeks to run against Cantwell alone. [REID WILSON]
Potential candidates include Safeco Insurance CEO Mike McGavick (R), RNC committeewoman/attorney/'04 WA 08 candidate Diane Tebelius (R), ex-KIRO TV news anchor Susan Hutchison (R) and State Sen. Linda Evans Parlette (R). The four would all be formidable candidates on their own, but thrown together in the GOP's first competitive primary in six years, they may spend more time attacking each other than attacking Cantwell.
While the Washington State GOP has suffered for years from a weak bench, they may face a problem similar to Maryland Democrats, who've seen two of their rising stars -- Montgomery County Exec. Doug Duncan and Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley -- jump into a race against each other in an effort to take back the governor's seat. Washington GOPers, suddenly and possibly unexpectedly, face the prospect of four candidates with loads of potential run against each other. And that means the eventual nominee may very well be too weakened and bloodied to recover in time to face Cantwell.
While it remains to be seen who, if any of them -- even McGavick has yet to declare himself an official candidate -- emerges as either the conservative or moderate alternative embraced by GOP faithful, thanks to Washington's late primary, the GOP's breadth of talent this time out may be just what Maria Cantwell needs to stay safe through next year's elections.
Not to mention, Washingtonians need a good reason to fire the incumbent. Remember, last time Maria was on the ballot she managed to pull off a very narrow victory thanks to the top of the ticket - Al Gore.
All the intangibles lean towards another Cantwell victory. If she loses, it will be her fault. Wasn't she a one-termer as a House member?
That said, Cantwell's seat will always be the target.
Even WA Republicans know that Patty Murray has her job as long as she wants it!
It is also interesting to see just how many votes Ralph Nader received in Washington State in 2000, and while every constituency and special interest group can arguably claim credit for Cantwell's 2000 victory, the voters Nader attracted to the polls are probably most responsible for her 2,500 vote victory.