IA/NH Dates Set?

From today's Hotline:

Some members of the DNC Primary Calendar Commission plan to circulate a formal proposal guarding IA and NH's first-in-the-nation stati and add two-to-four caucuses eight days after Iowa, according to commission members. The plan was developed in light of the commission's vote in Oct. to add at least two states to the "pre-window," when IA and NH have traditionally held their caucus and primary. One draft of the plan calls for IA to hold its precinct caucuses on Jan. 14 and for NH to hold its primary on Jan. 29. On Jan. 22, eight days after Iowa, several states would hold caucuses. The plan would also keep the seven days after NH free of events. [MARC AMBINDER and CHUCK TODD]

The slate of states that would be permitted to hold caucuses on 1/22 is not set in stone. One member said that SC and AR would almost certainly be invited to do so, and that the DNC would chose one of two others: NV and CO. But Democratic officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, say that a combination of several other states, including NM, MS, AL, LA and DE, might also be allowed to hold events that day or elsewhere within the pre-window. Those 10 states come from a list Commission member Ed Turlington circulated at the last meeting. Each has less than 5M residents, which permits retail politicking, and each has a minority population that equals 15% or more.

Commission members familiar with the plan like it because it observes the state laws of IA and NH: IA, by preserving eight event-free days after the caucuses; New Hampshire's, by not permitting a party-run "firehouse primary" or a state-run primary. Turlington says he has not seen the plan on paper or had it formally proposed to him but when read the outlines this a.m he said, ""what you quoted to me...that would accomplish many of the goals I support," including diversity and respect for IA's status. NH Dem Chair Kathy Sullivan: "It's an interesting proposal. I think that we'll see what happens. I like the idea that we do need to respect the tradition of both Iowa and New Hampshrie and the grassroots tradition." MI DNC member Debbie Dingell: "That's just one of many proposals out there. I do not think that Iowa and New Hampshire will be the only states going first."

Another calendar being discussed informally would schedule the Iowa caucus for Jan. 14, schedule the NH primary for Jan. 22, and then schedule several caucuses or primaries on the 29th -- or maybe even caucuses on the 22 with NH. The window for other states would open on Feb. 5.

In interviews, commission officials stressed that no consensus had been reached beyond what had been agreed to in Oct. Rep. David Price (D-NC), the commission chair, in an interview with The Hotline: "There are lots of people who have proposals. Some in writing, some that have been floating in discussion." Price said the commission was discussing ways to structure the December meeting to allow the commission to come to a conclusion on the schedule. "The challenge is going to be -- do we set specific dates for the [two to four additional] contests?" Price: "My guess is, this will probably be a mix of primaries and caucuses. Some will occur between the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire." Dem strategist Steve Murphy, also on the commission: "I don't think there is any consensus on the commission for naming the states." A Dem official: "There's nothing that lays out how specific the recommendations may be. Do we set specific states? Do we set the sequence of states?" Other members have suggested privately that the commission recommend events based on a category. One caucus could be held in a state with a big African American population; another out West; another, in a state with a large Latino population, and another in a state with a big manufacturing sector."

Read the two proposals, ex-SC Dem. chair/comm. member Joe Erwin said "It does seem to suggest that the frontloading would still be an issue. And I think that would be a source of concern for many, including me." Other commission members worry about frontloading as well. The DNC has limited control over when other states schedule their primaries and caucuses after the formal window opens. DNC vet. Harold Ickes has proposed incentivizing states to hold later events by giving them bonus delegates.

The commission meets in DC on Dec. 10. DNC chair Howard Dean is expected to weigh on the nomination commission's reccomendations after they are submitted. The nomination calendar report will be forwarded to the party's rules and bylaws commission for a final vote. Several delegations have hinted that if they do not get what they want out of the commission, they will lobby the rules and bylaws committee. A Dem. official: "This is the first step in a journey of a thousand miles" (Hotline reporting, 10/20).