NRCC Memo: We're Not Worried
NRCC Chairman/Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) sent an eleven page memo to the House GOP conference this a.m. urging them not to worry: their control of the House and their prospects for 2006 are in good shape.
Reynolds is cautious: "At the same time, we are entertaining into a sixth-year midterm against historical odds....Current national polling shows approval ratings for President Bush and Congress to be down."
More Reynolds: "Winning campaigns are about the basics -- about blocking and tackling; they're about strong candidates, a message that resonates, and resources."
"The off-year political landscape going into 2006 has a lot in common with pre-election landscapes of 2001 and 2003. To begin with, Republicans continue to hold the reins of leadership in the House, and we've ushered through bold reforms and substantive legislation;..."
"Redistricting may again be a factor in 2006...."
"On the financial front, Democrats are again at a disadvantage..."
"For the Democrats to regain control of the House, they not only have to defend all 11 of their most vulnerable seats, but also win 15 of the 16 competitive seats held by Republicans."
"The DCCC and leaders of the Party have gone to great lengths in attempting to draw parallels between 1994 and 2006, but the case they are making doesn't hold water."
"Democrats...lack the single more important element that made it possible for Republicans to engineer the 1994 takeover....a large playing field."
"Democrats cannot hope to win ...without a major wind to their backs. [But] Democrat efforts to nationalize the elections around ethics ar eproving more difficult in practice than in theory."
"There is no indication that Democrats today are anywhere close to formulating an equivalent message to what Republicans had in 1994."
UPDATE: From The Water Analogies File
It's thirteen months to the day before the 2006 midterm elections. Seems an odd time for the NRCC to hold a pen-and-pad event, and an even stranger time for reporters to decide to show up en masse. (According to our reporter on the scene, who got the last seat in the house, the event was standing-room only.)
With so many pundits and pontificators examining the potential for a national tide next year, NRCC chair Tom Reynolds (R-NY) had a reason to hold the event. His relentlessly upbeat message may have been aimed at stemming the flood of stories giving Dems a shot at recapturing the House. By highlighting the NRCC's advantages – well-funded incumbents, low retirement number and large cash advantage over the DCCC --Reynolds might have, at least for the moment, slowed down some of those in the press already willing to hand the speaker’s gavel to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
Not a bad idea, Tom.
when a campaign committee sends a memo saying it's not worried, chances are that it is!!!
PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN.....I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL.......
In October 2005 Rep. Reynolds may not be worried about the US House races, but after another year of high gas prices and another year of an endless war in Iraq I suspect he'll be in full panick mode in October 2006. My guess is the Democrats will pick up 30 seats and control of the House.
30 Seats is a pipe dream. If the Democrats do win the House it will be just barely. The route to 16 is hard enough and it would probably mean knocking off Randy Kuhl, John Kline and Dave Reichert. The math for 30 is difficult under the rosiests of outlooks, especially without even recruits in a lot of the seats needed to be picked up.
One question not many people have been asking yet though, is how many seats does Nancy Pelosi really need to become Speaker? Gene Taylor and Charlie Stenholm have voted against her in the past, and it probably doesn't mean as much to vote for Pelosi for Minority Leader, but voting for her for Speaker could endanger some Dems in tough districts like Matheson, Moore, Chandler, etc.
radiator:instituter breacher.unblock!many nullifiers .