November 2005 Archives
... that I have to get off my chest.
1) What are the NH Dems thinking? Just when it seemed they were going to get 75% of what they wanted out of the DNC primary calendar commission, they pressed the panic button. What was the 75%? NH was still going to be the DNC's first-in-the-nation primary; the state was STILL going to have its own day to itself, without having to share its primary date with any other state's caucus OR primary; and most importantly, they were going to get the IA/NH jealousy argument set aside for the first time in years. If you ask me, IA and NH were on the verge of remarkable survival. [CHUCK TODD]
Continue reading "Two Calendar Thoughts..." »
To NH Dems' declaration of war against the DNC primary commission, NH GOPers reacted with a mix of calm and caution, and many went running to the rule-books. Ex-NH AG Tom Rath told us, "We are waiting and watching and it ain't over 'til.... I think we would ask [NH Sec. of State Bill] Gardner to be mindful of our rule."
Party officials said the RNC is bound by its own rules for choosing delegates and had no means (nor the inclination) to re-arrange its calendar to accomodate an intra-party dispute among Dems. Says RNC comm. dir. Brian Jones: "Our rules were set at the previous convention. There's no changing of the rules for us."
According to a Republican familiar with the nomination process and with party thinking on the matter, the GOP's rules for 2008 are locked in. Says the Republican, who asked not to be identified in order to speak candidly: "We do not have the flexibility to modify those rules." The rules adopted by delegates at the 2004 convention set Feb. 5 of '08 as the earliest date on which state parties can hold contests to select delegates. The rules say that any state choosing to hold a primary or a delegate-selection convention outside the window risks losing fifty percent of its delegates by one of two means: the RNC chair can decide unilateraly to dock the state, or three members of the rules cmte can raise a point of order and enforce the same rule.
In 2008, the GOP nomination is open. Would a state party be able to convince all but two members of the rules cmte to allow it to keep all its delegates when various potential presidential candidates (and their allies on the rules committee) would be arguing against it? Says the Republican: "You can't select delegates before the first Tuesday. You do that, and you have the potential of losing half your delegates." Says another well-connected NH GOPer: "I don't think there's much churning about the schedule on our side and all the 08ers are certainly acting like it's still Iowa and us and then everything else."
The prospects for NH GOPers are particularly complicated. If Gardner decides to schedule the primary in Jan., the Republican Party there has three options. One -- they could acquiesce, allowing the state to pay for their primary (or convention) but risking half their delegates. Two -- they could decide to conduct their own so-called "Firehouse Primary" after the window opens in Feb. The problem there: presidential nominating contests are very expensive (think of SC Dems in '04) and the NH GOP might not be able to raise enough money to pull it off.
Three -- they could try to come up with a convention model wherein voters express their preferences on the state-sanctioned day but delegates themselves would not be apportioned until after the window opens. But this option might curtail participation by GOP voters. Since IA does not hold primaries, the status of the IA GOP's '08 plan is undetermined at this writing. {MARC AMBINDER]
We hear... that Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani has spoken at more than two dozen Get Motivated seminars since 2003, each drawing crowd sizes in the many thousands. So it's possible he's 'motivated' more than a million people.
In the WSJ's subscriber-only "Political Diary" yesterday afternoon, John Fund reported that Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid had told Reno's NBC affiliate: "I heard that Osama bin Laden died in the [recent Pakistan] earthquake, and if that's the case, I certainly wouldn't wish anyone harm, but if that's the case, that's good for the world."
That section was soon made available to the public on the RNC's website, and conservative bloggers jumped right on it. As the 5/17 Blogometer records, they had already jumped on him for mentioning the FBI file of then-Bush jud. nominee Henry Saad.)
- Power Line posted a reader letter asking: "What does Harry Reid know that we don't? If there is something to this, why is Harry Reid leaking sensitive national security information before our intelligence agencies have anything to say? If there isn't, why is Harry Reid spreading falsehoods and hearsay?"
- NC-based schoolteacher Betsy Newmark was quicker to judge: "If senators can't be trusted with top secret information, they won't be able to perform their Constitutional obligations to oversight of the Executive branch. They must be trusted to keep their big yaps shut. And this guy goes off blabbing to the local news station!"
- And so was Varifrank, who posted images of a few "loose lips sink ships" type WWII-era posters.
However... [WILLIAM BEUTLER]
Continue reading "Greatly Exaggerated" »
From the WSJ: "A federal judge denied Research In Motion's request to enforce a settlement reached between the BlackBerry maker and NTP, ruling the pact is invalid."
What do y'all think a day without Blackberries would be like in DC?
Palm, Inc (NASD: PALM) up just over 4% on the day, shot up $2 per share in the space of half an hour after the ruling.
RIM (NASD: RIMM) down 5%, fell nearly $6 in about an hour.
We hear... that ex-Rep./'00 PA SEN Dem nominee Ron Klink (D) is mulling a run for what's left of his old PA 04 seat, currently held by Rep. Melissa Hart (R).
Hart has never finished below 59% in her three runs for Congress, but Klink would represent her most serious competition to date.
Below are some choice quotes from a glowing '91 LA Times profile of soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham that a friend at our sister publication, the Almanac of American Politics, dug up.
Viewed through the context of Cunningham's recent unpleasantness they are a reminder of just how fleeting power in Washington can be and a reminder of what the many alluring and, for some, irresistible temptations here can do to a career and a life.
Keep in mind that the story was written just one month into the Dukestir's first term.
"I've never seen anyone -- anyone -- get out of the starting blocks so fast," said National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) staffer Gary Koops. "The Duke Man is dynamite."
"I already consider him a treasure who I could send out anywhere in the country and be confident of his drawing power," said Rep. Guy Vander Jagt (R-MI), NRCC chairman. "The older members treat him more like a celebrity than a freshman. In the short time he's been here, Duke's captured more attention than any other freshman I've ever seen. This is not a fleeting thing -- it's an opportunity Duke will build upon," Vander Jagt said. "He's not just a meteor hurtling through the congressional firmament. He's a permanent star."
"Maybe God puts you in the place where He thinks you could do the most good," Cunningham said in an interview in his office, sitting amid the half-filled cardboard boxes, bare walls and empty shelves marking his new occupancy.
"This is the part that gets me a little emotional," Cunningham said recently as he walked briskly up the Capitol steps to vote. "You look around the House chamber, and it's hard to believe you're really part of this. It's a pretty awesome feeling. It kind of makes your hair stand up to think of all the history of the place."
"I'm not going to go around beating on my chest, but I'll get attention one way or another," Cunningham says. "The tip of my spear is pretty sharp, and I'm not willing to just sit back and settle for scraps."
And here's the kicker: "Well, I'm here," he said. "And, when I leave this place in 10 or 20 years, I think I'll have left my mark."
The Hotline in conjunction with the TN GOP, today announced it will conduct the authorized presidential preference straw poll at this year's Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis, TN from 3/9-12 in '06.
More than 1,000 GOP activists, donors, state party chairs, county chairs, members of Congress, GOP candidates and elected officials are expected to attend. Many Republicans say the SRLCs are primo party confabs, second only to the national conventions during presidential years.
The SRLC rose to prominence in the 1980s as GOPers began to consolidate congressional districts across the South. As Ronald Reagan told the gathering in '84 in GA: "It wasn't that long ago, yes, when the South was a stronghold for the Democratic Party. But from the spirit I sense here, those days are long gone. Today it's the Republican Party that reflects the progress and the vibrance of the new South."
At the '98 straw poll in Biloxi, MS, candidate/speakers included Lamar Alexander, John Aschroft, Dan Quayle and Steve Forbes. All were well-received, but the one man who didn't show -- then TX Gov. George W. Bush -- won the poll, a testament to his early strength among GOP elites. (Bush was busy campaigning in his GOV primary which was the very next week.) Forbes came in second, a reflection of the popularity of his tax message (which Bush later adopted) and his surprising strength among social conservatives. There were many 'Bush-Quayle' signs in the audience; Quayle placed third. Then-Sen. Fred Thompson got 10 percent. The SRLC can also break candidacies: Jack Kemp's speech was so poorly received that it portended the beginning of the end of his candidacy.
Continue reading "Hotline To Conduct '06 SRLC Straw Poll" »
New Hampshire Union-Leader ace John DiStaso advances the jam between NH Dems and their party, reporting that Sec/State Bill Gardner will do whatever it takes to protect New Hampshire's First In The Nation status. He'd even move the date of the primary earlier. Today's Hotline will bring you the Republican Party's perspective, and we'll post our story to On Call later in the day.
Newly declassified, just for you. Download file
Catch the executive summary after the jump.
Continue reading "Bush's Iraq Strategy" »
While he continues to eye a challenge to Sen. John Ensign (R), presidential son Jack Carter (D) has launched a new website. The site has few features so far, but it does reinforce just how much the would-be candidate resembles his dad, former President Jimmy Carter. (It also features a contributions link, natch).
Carter told the Reno Gazette-Journal this week that he'll "definitely" announce his decision early next year. "I'm quasi-official, still," he said.
VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) will commute the death sentence of convicted killer Robin Lovitt. Warner cited evidence that was destroyed in the case as grounds for staying the execution.
Warner also made clear in his statement, posted below, that this was no pardon. Warner: "After a thorough review, it is my decision that Robin Lovitt should spend the rest of his life in prison with no eligibility for parole."
As detailed in a Page One Post story over the Thanksgiving holiday, Lovitt was found guilty of robbery and capital murder 6 years ago in Arlington. Lovitt, though, has maintained his innocence and his attorneys (most notably Ken Starr) have pointed to an Arlington Co. court clerk's throwing away of evidence from the case as grounds for commuting Lovitt's death sentence.
Also worth noting is that ex-AG/'01 GOV nominee Mark Earley (R) recently sent Warner a letter asking him to stay the execution. Beyond the irony of an conservative GOPer asking a Dem gov to commute a death sentence (and in a state where the issue played such a major role in this year's GOV race), Earley's intervention is important because it provides Warner with a measure of political cover should the issue be brought up, say, 3 years from now.
With Earley weighing in from beyond the political grave, Starr leading the defense team and Lovitt still facing life in a VA penitentiary (read: no Willie Horton), the political consequences of his decision are less grave than many pundits have suggested. And, of course, there's nothing to suggest that Warner even considered politics when weighing clemency.
Continue reading "Warner Decides On Lovitt" »
DNC Chair Howard Dean worries that an increasingly bitter public spat between NH Dems and other members of the DNC's primary calendar commission could give political ammunition to GOPers, according to a commission member who has spoken with Dean. Another Dem strategist close to Dean, responding to reports that NH Dems publicly announced their specific preferences before allowing the commission to vote, hinted that a consensus to add states between IA and NH had been reached, and that NH was playing a futile game of catch-up.
"The aggressiveness of New Hampshire encourages aggression from other folks," said the strategist, who asked not to be identified in order to discuss the matter more candidly. "The more we fight about this in the press, the less helpful it is to our nominee in 2008."
A third Dem strategist with close ties to the DNC said NH risks worsening its hand: "Were I New Hampshire, I'd be very careful until the primary calendar is set because there is no rule that says they have to go first, second, third or even fifth. Those recommendations are being made right now by the committee they continue to insult"
Dean has steadfastly refused to discuss potential changes to the party's primary schedule, and DNC spokesperson Josh Earnest said Dean would have no comment on the proposals before they are voted on. But the commission member close to Dean said that the ex-VT gov. is aware that a majority of commission members want to add several caucuses after IA and before NH, and that he has not moved to squelch those proposals behind the scenes, signaling his tacit assent.
And one of the Democratic strategists close to the DNC said the commission is close to reaching a result that "the Democratic chairman will abide by."
Other commission members, who all asked to remain anonymous in order to discuss the process, stressed that since there had been no vote on any proposal yet, there was no way of predicting what the commission will ultimately decide when it meets in DC on 12/10.
NH's proposal, released this summer to commission members and last night to reporters, would "(1) Add one or two contests to a prominent position at the front of the presidential nominating calendar, between the New Hampshire primary and the beginning of the period open to any state. These contests would occur in states whose voting public displays substantial racial, ethnic, religious or other key diversity characteristics; and (2) Reverse the frontloading trend by creating a series of sanctioned dates on which states could hold presidential primaries or caucuses, beginning on or about the first Tuesday of February and ending on or about the second Tuesday in June."
In a conf. call with nat'l pol. reporters this a.m, NH Dem chair Kathy Sullivan and ex-NH chair Joe Keefe touted what Keefe called NH's "compromise" proposal. Keefe: "It's a very legitimate and responsible comrpomise between what seems to be the two developing positions." Keefe said the NH proposal "tackles frontloading," which he said the commission had not yet done. Sullivan said the developing commission consensus "would exacerbate frontloading" and would "hurt the Democratic nominee." Sullivan said caucuses held before NH would violate NH law because they presumably would be party-run "firehouse primaries." Sullivan: "In 2004, there were twelve events within an eight day time frame. However, on February 17, Wisconsin had its own date. It went by itself [and] did not have any other states for seven days before or seven days after. Wisconsin ended up having the second highest turnout of any other state, aside from New Hampshire and California." Keefe said the NH plan would incent states to choose later dates because they would "own them" by themselves. The DNC would limit the number of delegates apportioned on specific dates.
IA Dems have largely managed to keep their commission wrangling private, even though they are sympathetic to NH's concerns. Says one Dem close to the party and familiar with the inner workings of the commission: "There's no question that IA has been playing it better than NH" [MARC AMBINDER]
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani has studiously avoided the traditional pre-pre-presidential race gauntlets. He's not visited IA and NH and has largely stayed off TV, preferring to focus on tending to his law firm, Bracewell Giuliani, and to his consulting partnership. He's also raised millions for charity. But Giuliani has found a way to bypass the media filter and speak directly to tens of thousands of Americans at once.
Since March, Giuliani has been top-billed at "Get Motivated" seminars in 13 states, attracting several hundred thousand aspiring enterprenuers -- from Mary Kay cosmestics vendors to small business owners -- to hear his trademark lecture on leadership during crises.
A Giuliani aide: "He enjoys them greatly, because they offer him the opportunity to speak to large cross section of Americans they're not just small groups of CEOs in New York, L.A. or DC. ... It gives him an opportunity to speak to a broader auidence."
Audience members pay between $49 and $225 to attend the day-long "Get Motivated" seminars, which are run by corporate strategy guru Zig Ziglar.
Giuliani is compensated for his apperances, though an aide declined to say how much. Other frequent speakers include ex-Sec/State Colin Powell, ex-CinC of Central Command Tommy Franks, comedian Jerry Lewis, real estate maven Tommy Hopkins and financial advice gurette Suze Orman. Get Motivated, Inc. advertises the seminars in local newspapers months ahead of the event and tries to recruit local heros to join the roster of speakers. A two-day event in Kansas City, KS, for example, featured Kansas City Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil.
Typically, Giulaini takes the stage to roaring cheers and to the the strains of "New York, New York." Press accounts suggest his entrance spurs spontaneous standing ovations. His 20-to-30 minute speech references his stewardship of New York during the 1990s, his career as a prosecutor, and his experiences on 9/11. Giuliani's staff never asked to keep a copy of the attendee list, though it's unclear at this writing whether Get Motivated would release it to any of their speakers. Locations and crowd sizes after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "Giuliani Zigs..." »
Don't forget!
The Hotline and the UVA's Center for Politics will host our annual American Democracy Conference in Washington on Thursday, 12/1. Hotline editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio, along with UVA's Larry Sabato, will moderate star-studded panels discussing the Bush mandate, the future of Republicans, and the '06 midterms.
And it's free. You can register to attend here.
Prompted by a snarky comment to one of our numerous Mark Warner posts, here's a small clip-n-save.
Bayh: find realistic way to define success, then set benchmarks
Edwards: was "wrong". Wants "significant" reduction of troops after elections early next year. He'd tie the proportion of troops withdrawn to benchmarks set for Iraqi soldier performance.
Biden: no withdrawals until political situation improves, but sees 100K troops back home by '07. Does not rule out more troops if necessary. Wants admin to come clean about targets for Iraqi troop training. More civillian staff in Iraq.
Clark: add civillian component; consider adding troops; adjust the mix on the ground; establish clear benchmarks for training
Clinton: No immed. withdrawal, no troop increase, set specific benchmarks for training Iraqi forces and make it clear to Iraq that the US's military committment is limited.
Feingold: 12/31/06 is a "target date" for troops to come home. But he's flexible.
Kerry: begin drawn down of 20K troops after elections in Dec and continue if successful.
Richardson: "It is now time for the military commanders to design a phased, definitive withdrawal plan."
Warner: No immed. withdrawal, no troop increase, set specific benchmarks for Iraqi forces. Eschews "debating the past." [MARC AMBINDER]
News out of Ohio this a.m. is that Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman (D) will drop out of the GOV race, citing family reasons (today’s Hotline has more of the details).
That would seem to be a boost to the only other major Dem in the race, Rep. Ted Strickland, allowing him plenty of time to watch the three GOP candidates duke it out before the May 2nd primary. But already, ex-Rep./now-state Sen. Eric Fingerhut, the Dem challenger to Sen. George Voinovich (R) in '04, is signaling he'll jump in. The Cleveland Plain Dealer even mentions the oft-mentioned Jerry Springer possibility. Sure, the scandals plaguing state government in the wake of Tom Noe leave GOPers vulnerable. But, as we also see in the Hackett-Brown SEN situation, Dems can't seem to get on the same page.
What's more: there are at least 3 Dems seeking to replace Denny White, who abruptly resignated as chair of the Ohio Democratic Party last week. [MIKE MEMOLI]
We also wondered this:
"Are Republican retirements are a reliable leading indicator on forecasting a change in control of the House of Representatives?"
Taegan Goddard of Political Wire asked Charlie Cook.
From Cook's answer: "In and of themselves, the number of retirements that a party has is not a particularly good leading indicator of seat changes. But, a large number of retirements from incumbents in vulnerable seats can result in a large number of seat changes. With over 95 percent of incumbents in a typical year getting re-elected (though for a party in a bad year it can drop as low as 80 percent), open seats in vulnerable districts increases the volatility in the House and the exposure to losses."
In New York today, VA Gov. Mark Warner rejected calls by many Democrats to set a target date to drawn down U.S. troop levels in Iraq, saying he prefers a gradual approach that links troop withdrawals to benchmarks achieved by Iraqi forces.
The AP quotes Warner: "'This Democrat doesn't think we need to re-fight how we got into (the Iraq war). I think we need to focus more on how to finish it,' Warner said.....'To set an arbitrary deadline or specific date is not appropriate ... It is incumbent on the president to set milestones for what he believes will be the conclusion."
That's similar to what Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York said last week.
She rejected an immediate pull-back but, like Warner, said no more troops were needed.
And she also endorsed a benchmark approach, distinguishing her from potential '08 opponents like Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI).
Clinton: "My approach is we tell them we expect you to meet these certain benchmarks and that means getting troops and police officers trained, equipped and ready to defend their people."
VA Gov. Mark Warner makes his first trip to SC on Dec. 7, where he'll keynote the SC Dem's annual Governors Appreciation Dinner in Charleston.
Ex-Dem govs Hodges, Hollings, McNair, and Riley will speak and be honored.
SC Dem chair Joe Erwin: "This is going to be a truly great event. South Carolina has been served extremely well by Democratic Governors and we are excited about honoring them at this dinner. Mark Warner is quickly becoming a rock star on the national level and I can't think of a better keynote speaker."
We're told that ex-DNC chair Don Fowler, a big Warner fan, pushed hard for Warner to get the invite. And that Fowler plans to act as Warner's in-state sherpa, making sure he gets to chat with well-connected Dems. [MARC AMBINDER]
"This is now a personal matter for the Congressman and his family. The office will not comment any further on today's proceedings other than to say that we are praying for Duke in these exceedingly difficult times."
"The office is working closely with the Clerk of the House to ensure that the needs of the constituents of the 50th District of California are met throughout this transition."
Two other interesting nuggets on the Cunningham resignation. With DeLay on ice, will Acting Maj Leader Blunt have increased voting sway on the GOP's Steering Cmte? DeLay's vote on the committee assignment-distributing panel was weighted to count as two votes. Speaker Hastert's vote counts as five votes and the 26 other GOPers on the cmte just have their own vote. Will Blunt take DeLay's extra vote? Who makes that decision? And what does it say for his future hopes if he does or doesn't get the extra juice?
Another interesting question to ponder is whether Appropriations Cmte Chair Jerry Lewis (R-CA) keeps Cunningham's seat in the Golden State. As mentioned earlier, there are a handful of non-CA perennial contenders for approps slots who cast vote after vote with their leadership. Will they be passed over at the chair's discretion to keep three of the coveted seats in the hands of CA GOPers?
Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist, who is angling to play a lead role when the Senate considers immigration legislation in '06, said today he plans to bring a border security bill to the floor in Feb.
Frist is sympathetic to President Bush's view that American ought to welcome and enhance legal immigration, but aides say he sees both a practical and political need to address border security gaps first.
Frist helped to ensure that next year's homeland security budget contained funding for about 1,000 new border patrol agents.
His announcement comes the day that President Bush began a series of high-profile border visits and a few days after Sen. Arlen Specter dropped word of his own immigration principles, one of which would increase the number of green cards granted by the government. Specter's ideas are broadly supported by the GOP's high-dollar donor base and most corporate lobbyists.
The base, particularly in the Southwest and in exurban communities in the rest of the country, seems to want tough enforcement proposals that do not allow for "amnesty," a scare word in the immigration political lexicon.
What strategists don't know is whether the base will punish GOPers if they don't take a hard line on immigration. Some, like conservative Paul Weyrich, think they will. But anecdotal evidence and recent elections suggest that they will not.
Bush has hinted that he would be amenable to the legislation introduced by Sens. John Cornyn and Jon Kyl that would forbid recently deported undocumented immigrations from re-applying for citizenship for as many as ten years after they return to their home countries. The bill would expand temporary work visas but keep their length to two years.
That Bush favors the A word was forgiven by many Republicans in '04, but Republican strategists, even those sympathetic to expanding legal immigration, have concluded that a successful GOP presidential candidate needs to be seen by voters as tough on border enforcement, first and foremost.
From a Frist statement: "We can no longer compromise America's border security, allowing potentially dangerous individuals and materials to slip freely across the border and into our country.....Having personally witnessed the challenges of maintaining safe and secure borders, I know that we must act swiftly to confront the challenges along America's porous borders. That's why the Senate will make strengthening our nation's frontline defenses a top priority in the second session of the 109th Congress, and I plan on bringing up border security reform legislation as a primary legislative item in February." [MARC AMBINDER]
Ralph Neas has been in DC so long that the visuals for his ads create themselves.
Cunningham's resignation necessitates yet another special election in CA and marks the third House vacancy in CA in '05. Per CA law, Gov. Schwarzenegger must issue a proclamation within 14 calendar days of 11/28 calling for a special. The election must take place "on a Tuesday at least 112 days, but not more than
119 days, following the issuance of" the proclamation.
Notable here is that after Cunningham's successor is chosen, 11 of the 53 House members from CA will have been elected to their seats via special election. In other words, over 20% of CA's House delegation came to office in a non-traditional way.
For those keeping score at home, the CA 11 are:
Rep's Matsui (D), Pelosi (D), Lee (D), Farr (D), Capps (D), Watson (D), Millender-McDonald (D), Baca (D), Bono (R), CA-48 (Cox's old seat), and CA-50 (Cunningham). [JONATHAN MARTIN]
Per an AP alert: "California Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham has resigned after admitting taking $2.4 million in bribes."
So who's the first to return Rep. Cunningham's money?
Check out how generous his Friends of Duke Cunningham account has been over the years.... more than $200K to the NRCC alone in '04, and more than $900K total.
Republicans running for re-election in '06 can handle an unpopular president who's still well-liked, but can Republicans handle a president whose personal popularity is now coming into question?
A Democracy Corp (D) poll released this afternoon shows Pres. Bush's approval rating at 42% for 4th consecutive time in this poll, while his disapproval reaches a new high at 56%. While this is on par with most national polls of late, the Democracy Corp poll shows how deep these issues run within the GOP. "Strong" disapproval of Bush has reached a new high of 47%, while voters are also feeling more personally detached from Bush with his UNFAV rating trumping his FAV (49%-43%). The direction of the nation has also sustained a high, with 62% saying the nation is on the wrong track, unchanged from earlier in the month. As the deficit in personal approval grows for Bush, it will make it increasingly difficult for his job approval to bounce back. This personal approval should not go unnoticed, especially by GOPers facing re-election. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]
In a new web-only ad released nearly a year before next November's election, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) vows to protect Social Security for workers at the cusp of retirement but does not mention his support for personal retirement accounts that most Dems and many GOPers believe would fundamentally undermine the entitlement.
The ad includes visuals of a twirling young ballerina and several happy families. It can seen at RollCall.com and on PoliticsPA.com, sites frequented by Washington insiders and by politically precocious voters in Pennsylvania.
Santorum's campaign spokeswoman, Virginia Davis, said that the campaign did not produce the ad to test how Santorum's principles on Social Security would be interpreted by the media and by PA voters.
"Pennsylvania has one of the oldest population in the country," Davis said. "Seniors are nervous about their retirement benefits. We wanted to highlight the Senator's efforts on this issue."
The ad's narrator touts Santorum's recently-introduced bill to guarantee that workers born after 1950 get full benefits when they retire. The ad ignores his preference to reform the system by allowing workers to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes.
Said Davis, "He believes that it's important seniors to know that their Social Security benefits are guaranteed. And it's an important first step to talking about broader reform."
"It's too important an issue to ignore simply because it's unpopular. He wanted to highlight his efforts on this specific issue," she said.
Like other Democratic office-holders and candidates, Casey has yet to say how he would shore up Social Security's finances. His advisers count on voters remembering Santorum's role in pushing for personal accounts.
"The Santorum bill isn't worth the paper it's printed on," said Larry Smar, Casey's campaign spokesman. "It's not backed by a single penny."
The ad was produced by Santorum media consultant John Brabender. [MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "Santorum's New Web Ad" »
The AP reports that Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA) will admit he violated the federal tax code...
Per the House's "Code of Official Conduct," Cunningham must "refrain from voting in the House until judicial or executive proceedings reinstate" his "presumption of innocence or until he is reelected to the House after his conviction." Thus with Cunningham having already declared that he will not seek re-election next year, his career in Congress effectively ended with his plea today. It remains to be seen if House will hold a vote on whether to expel Cunningham (a la Traficant) but expect Pelosi/Hoyer/Dean/Rahm to demand one before sundown.
An interesting side note to Cunningham's plea is that his resignation would immediately open up a seat on the always-in-demand House Appropriations Cmte. Look for the likes of Leadership loyalists Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) and Jo Bonner (R-AL) to stake their claim to Cunningham's approps seat as soon as (and if) he tenders his resignation.
Last week, we mused that VA Gov Mark Warner would probably open his presidential exploratory account early. Our reasoning: if you need to raise a lot of money -- a record amount of money -- and Hillary Clinton is crowding out donors, and you want to position yourself among those fundraisers as the viable alternative, why not start early?
We remain fairly certain that Warner and many other '08 hopefuls intend to bust through the public financing caps.
But Warner might do well to wait a while before he starts to collect money for his presidential. Once Warner opens an exploratory committee, he has to abide by federal limits on what he can raise and what he can spend. Unless he's prepared to say, from day one, that he'll cut himself a check from his Nextel booty, his political activities would be curtailed quite significantly, and early. Why blow through all that cash so quickly?
A more likely option: he raises and spends through his PAC and plants enough seeds to post high numbers when he does open his exploratory account. The best of both worlds: he gets to double dip -- contributors can max out to his PAC and his exploratory in the same cycle -- and he ensures that the media recognizes his prowess whenever he reports numbers to the FEC. [MARC AMBINDER]
Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist this a.m. announced that the Senate will convene on 1/18 next year, recessing from 2/20-24 and 3-20/24, and then from 4/10-21, from 5/29-6/2, from 7/3-7, and from 8/7 - 9/4. The targeted, pre-'06 adjournment: 10/6.
The House plans to announce its calendar shortly.
The Republican Governors Association winter meeting begins Wednesday in Carlsbad, CA. MA Gov. Mitt Romney will take the reins as RGA chair as he readies his announcement about his future political plans.
The Democratic National Committee holds its fall meeting in Phoeniz, AZ from 12/1-3. NM Gov. Bill Richardson and DNC Chair Howard Dean are featured speakers.
The final meeting of the DNC's primary calendar commission kicks off in DC on 12/10. A recommendation to add several states between IA and NH is expected to be forwarded to the party's rules and bylaws committee.
Florida Dems hear from IA Gov. Tom Vilsack, ex-Sen. John Edwards, VA Gov. Mark Warner and keynoter Sen. Barack Obama from 12/9-12/12 in Orlando.
The Republican National Committee's winter meeting commences on 1/19 in DC.
The Conservative Political Action Conference sponsored by the American Conservative Union is slated for 2/9-2/11 at the Omni Shoreham in Washington. Invited guests include VP Dick Cheney, RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman and Bob Novak.
The Southern Republican Leadership Conference and the Midwestern Republican Leadership Conference will get together for a joint mega-event in Memphis beginning on March 9. Various '08 presidentials are expected at what's traditionally been one of the more influential political gatherings in the country.
The DNC will convene its spring meeting in the symbolically important New Orleans, LA, on 4/22.
The Hotline and the UVA's Center for Politics will host our annual American Democracy Conference in Washington on Thursday, 12/1. Hotline editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio, along with UVA's Larry Sabato, will moderate star-studded panels discussing the Bush mandate, the future of Republicans, and the '06 midterms.
And it's free. You can register to attend here. And feel free to say hello to On Call, which will try to live-blog from the event.
Here's the first in an occasional On Call series....
Guess the source.
We want your opinion: who burbles up these juicy quotes, and why? For the comments section, informed, polite speculation preferred, please. Anonymous, insider guesses can be sent directly to your editor.
Today's entry comes from one of the most well-connected reporters in Washington, The New York Daily News' bureau chief Tom DeFrank, whose access to the inner circles of President Bush's senior staff is almost legendary.
On Sunday, DeFrank and Ken Bazinet co-bylined a piece asserting that West Wing aides were victims of bunker mentalities.
"'We're just plodding along,' admitted a senior Bush aide from deep within the West Wing bunker. 'It's up to the President to turn things around now.'
"For the moment, Bush has dismissed discreetly offered advice from friends and loyalists to fire Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and bring back longtime confidant Karen Hughes from the State Department to shore up his personal White House staff."
"'He thinks that would be an admission he's screwed up, and he can't bring himself to do that,' a former senior staffer lamented."
"A card-carrying member of the Washington GOP establishment with close ties to the White House recently encountered several senior presidential aides at a dinner and came away shaking his head at their' no problems here' mentality."
"'There is just no introspection there at all,' he said in exasperation. "It is everybody else's fault - the press, gutless Republicans on the Hill. They're still in denial."
1. Prosecutors said to prepare a possible bribery case against Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH)
2. Sen. Arlen Specter's draft immigration would double green card permits. In the Senate, any immigration enforcement bill must pass Specter's Judiciary committee before it reaches the floor.
3. Two members of Congress hurt in Iraqi MVA.
4. The Boyden Gray EU hold has been released, probably by Sen. Durbin.
5. President Dodd?
6. McCain to stump for Santorum on Friday.
One of the more amusing signposts in NM Gov. Bill Richardson's career has been his contention, oft repeated and known to reporters and others familiar with his biography, that he was drafted by the Oakland Athletics in 1967.
Turns out -- he wasn't. The Albuquerque Journal investigated and discovered that there's no evidence he was ever officially selected by the team.
The narrative of reporter Toby Smith's sleuthing fascinates.
Richardson was clearly a top prospect, and there is documentary proof that at least one publication at the time considered him "Drafted By K.C."
But he was never drafted.
So -- did this enthusiastic young baseball player misremember his past innocently?
The AP picked it up, ensuring widespread post-Thanksgiving play.
Needless to say -- not the best presidential clip.
And other news...
1. In a news conference today, acting NJ Gov Richard Codey said he did not want Gov-elect Jon Corzine to appoint him to fill Corzine's Senate seat. That's after a poll showed him defeating probable GOP challenger Tom Kean, Jr., in 2006. Mssrs. Pallone, Andrews and Menendez still want the job. Menendez is probably the favorite to get it.
2. The man who narrowly lost the Detroit mayor's race to incumbent Kwame Kilpatrick wants a hand recount. Freman Hendrix says there were discrpancies in preliminary vote totals and the final number recorded by elections officers.
3. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez supplies heating oil for Bill Delahunt's constituents.
4. Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-AZ) retires.
5. More Alito/CAP ties questioned.
From Daily Kos's presidential preference straw poll of more than 11,600 readers of the world's most read political blog.
Nov Sept Aug July June
Clark 26 34 35 34 26
Feingold 19 19 16 10 10
Warner 14 4 3 5 5
Edwards 12 10 7 7 8
H. Clinton 6 8 9 10 10
No Freakin' Clue 6 6 9 13 17
Richardson 5 3 4 4 4
Other 2 3 4 4 7
Kerry 2 2 1 2 2
Biden 1 3 3 3 3
Bayh 1 1 1 2 2
Vilsack 0 0 0 0 0
"While this isn't a scientific poll of the Democratic Party rank and file, at 11K+ results it's a pretty darn accurate poll of the sentiments of the Daily Kos community."
"The big winner in this poll is obviously Warner, who has gotten a huge 10-point boost out of Kaine's victory in Virginia and has become a sort of media darling...."
"The big loser was Clark, who shed eight points. Feingold's support was solid. Edwards may have gotten a bump for admitting he fucked up by voting to authorize force in Iraq. Hillary Clinton is increasingly aligned with the "stay the course" in Iraq faction of the party. And the longer she stays in that group, the more nakedly political her inevitable flip in favor of withdrawal will look. Because like it or not, Iraq will continue to grow as an issue."
Pat Priest, the judge overseeing Rep. Tom DeLay's felony trial in Texas today said he won't decide whether to drop charges until December, and probably wouldn't convene a trial until at least January.
When DeLay abdicated his post as majority leader on a temporary basis to Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), House Speaker Dennis Hastert promised Republicans that if DeLay wasn't out of trouble by January, he'd set a date for an election to fill the post permanently.
Today's news increases the chance that DeLay will not regain the leadership post. As we wrote yesterday, DeLay backers have told members of Congress that they expected Priest to drop the charges altogether.
At least two potential candidates -- Blunt and Ohio Rep. John Boehner -- have already begun to compile research on each other in anticipation of a race.
Both men, however, will wait until DeLay formally endorses the idea of an election before they begin to campaign for the position. [MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "DeLay Dealt Setback" »
To get a head start raising hard dollars that he could use to seed a presidential campaign, Howard Dean opened his exploratory account in May of 2002, the earliest of any of the major Dem '04 contenders.
Judging by how public his play has been, here's betting that VA Gov. Mark Warner opens his account very early, too. An early exploratory account demonstrates a serious commitment to the race in the eyes of activists, fundraisers and donors who might otherwise be awed by the Clinton machine. (Warner can't transfer money he raises from his PAC into a federal campaign account.)
Forward Together PAC's senior adviser Mame Reiley sent an e-mail to PAC supporters this afternoon touting the "terrific" response to Warner "everywhere we went" as "folks up north got their first chance to hear the Governor share the approach that has proven so popular in Virginia."
She then quotes a blogger who touted Warner's presidential dimensions:
"Warner is exciting for many reasons, but particularly because he has an 80% approval rating, a recognized status as one of the best managing state governers [sic] in America, and a consistent track record of defeating Republicans in one of the more Red states, Virginia... Warner also has some other attractive qualities, such as a great presence... a desire to run America well and reasonably, and the rare talent of honest inspiration."
Even Warner's own blogger, MyDD's famous Jerome Armstrong, doesn't seem to have read the script for potential presidential hopefuls, who are fond of demurrals and shrugs of shoulders when talking about their presidential aspirations. Armstrong describers Warner's recent speech in New Hampshire thusly: "One one staffer from a former `04 campaign remarked to me, 'I came in here just looking" and that he was blown away, saying afterward, 'he's our guy.'"
We'll take bets on precisely when Warner will open his exploratory account. May of 2006, anyone?
[MARC AMBINDER]
We've been surprised with how little attention has been paid to what we thought was a blockbuster profile of communications strategist John Rendon by James Bamford in the current issue of Rolling Stone.
The piece essentially pegs Rendon as the "source of the Nile" when it comes to selling the Iraq War. Well, not surprisingly, Rendon wasn't very pleased with the profile and posted, on his company web site, the letter-to-the-editor they sent Rolling Stone. [CHUCK TODD]
Continue reading "Rendon-ancy" »
MoveOn.org will air a stark television ad that chides GOP members of Congress for, in MoveOn's words, "failing to provide a specific plan" for bringing home U.S. troops from Iraq.
You'll first see it on national cable on Thanksgiving day.
Beginning Monday, the ad will also run in the districts of Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-GA), Duncan Hunter (R-CA), Geoff Davis (R-KY), Jack Kingston (R-GA), Steve King (R-IA), Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ), J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ)...and, of course, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH).
Continue reading "MoveOn's Turkey Day Ad" »
...the press gets tired of saying HRC is runnning for president and instead begins to say that she's not doing enough to run for president.
Oh -- wait -- scratch that. Same city, different paper. She is running, and she's running as a pro-war Dem, therefore ensuring that the "anti-Hillary" candidate will be anti-war.
Imagine that -- the entire '08 cycle deconstructed in a single newspaper on a single day.
As the Hotline prepares for the Thanksgiving holiday, we'd like to know what our readers are thankful for...
Below are the omnibus receipt and disbursement totals from the six major campaign committees through 10/31. We can think of at least seven spins:
--The GOP has raised approx. 50% more than the Dems
--The NRSC's poor performance sticks out like a sore thumb
--The NRSC is a victim of crowding out by the RNC's stellar performance
--The NRCC has a nearly two-to-one CoH advantage of the DCCC, which augurs well for '06
--The DCCC is enjoying a record fundraising year
--The DNC is enjoying record off-off year fundraising
--The GOP is outspending the Dems monthly
See the numbers, including our calculation of each committee's average burn rate, after the jump. [
MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "National Party $$" »
For those who have closely followed VA Gov. Mark Warner's (D) career in the Commonwealth, his address to NH state Sen. Dems on 11/18 (rebroadcast on C-Span's Road to the White House last night) offered a few surprises. Well one, actually: his forthright acknowledgment of -- and pride in -- being a Dem.
Yes, he sounded his usual Warnerian themes about the importance of getting past the old political labels, but we cannot recall the last time Warner touted his credentials as an ex-DNC staffer AND former Hill staffer. Best, though, was telling the Yankee audience: "I'm not actually from VA" and then going on to explain his New England roots. [JONATHAN MARTIN]
SC Gov. Mark Sanford is announcing today that Jason Miller, currently in the role of campaign manager for Sen. George Allen's '06 re-elect, is coming on board the re-election campaign. Title TBD.
Miller, always the campaign junkie, is leaving Allen amicably. He's simply looking for something to do more competitively for the '06 cycle.
Miller: "Sanford is expected to have a more competitive and more spirited re-election campaign than Sen. Allen will." Sources tell us that since Mark Warner announced he would not challenge Allen in '06, Miller's received several offers to work a more competitive race in '06.
He'll be moving to Columbia, SC at the beginning of Dec.
We'll let all you Allen conspiracy theorists decide whether having a former staffer learning the ropes in SC is beneficial to Allen's presidential aspirations.
Also, Miller, a.k.a. "Spike" is leaving on "excellent terms." For those that don't know, Allen's a nickname guy and "Spike" has been Miller's nickname since the start because "he didn't look like a Jason."
No announcement as of yet on who'll deal with the formality that is Allen's '06 re-election. [CHUCK TODD]
That's right... when Congress ends its work in the middle of December, House members will have more than a full month -- through Jan. 31, as of now -- to spend in their districts, go on vacation, raise money for their re-election campaigns and for their friends, and otherwise help depress hired car income in Washington.
Hoping to push Sen. Conrad Burns' Senate seat into more competitive territory, the Montana Democratic Party is up with a pre-Thanksgiving television ad lambasting Burns for his ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Several Dems, including state auditor John Morrison and state senate pres. Jon Tester (a farmer), are challenging Burns. It's hard to tell if the Abramoff fallout has hurt Burns in the state; this ad is but one suggestion that Dems do not believe it has yet to do so. While Burns's job approval rating is at an ebb for him (48% at last glance -- hardly stellar for an incumbent) -- polls show that Burns remains personally popular -- even Dem polls suggest that about half of voters have an "excllent" or "good" impression of him -- so the key task for Dems in the state is to raise his negatives over the next six months.
Morrison and Tester, relatively unknown to voters at this early stage, are likely to train their fire at Burns, rather than at each other, although a spirited primary in this state with a new, spirited Dem governor is assured.[MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "MT Dems Attack Burns In New Statewide Ad" »
Been wondering when Americans for Job Security would pop up? Look no further than PA, where AJS is running a 30-sec. TV ad touting Sen. Rick Santorum (R) 11/15-11/30 in the Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Erie, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Johnstown-Altoona markets (i.e. everywhere except Philly.) The buy is costing approx. $450K. [TODAY'S HOTLINE]
Continue reading "Americans For Job Security Pops Up In PA" »
Here's an extended excerpt from Chuck Todd's On The Trail buzz column from last week. (Subscribers get the full column, archives, and Chuck's wisdom a week before you do!)
When searching for potential Democratic roadblocks to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's likely march toward the 2008 Democratic nomination, a few candidates stand out. One is New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. If a Democratic consultant were trying to create the ideal presidential candidate, Richardson would be the model.
For the last two weeks, we've been immersed in all things Richardson in preparation for an on-camera interview we conducted with him for C-SPAN's "After Words." This meant, among other things, reading Richardson's book, "Between Worlds."
Continue reading "Can Hil Top Bill?" »
Is there a chance that Rep. Tom DeLay's Texas legal troubles end tomorrow? We're sure DeLay pays his team to be confident, but a variety of sources close to the majority leader are leaning into the idea that it's quite possible judge Pat Priest will throw out the felony indictments against him.
DeLay appears in court tomorrow, where his attorneys will argue that motion, along with a motion to speed the case to trial.
When DeLay stepped down as Maj. Leader after being indicted, House Speaker Dennis Hastert promised the caucus an election for the post in early Jan, provided DeLay was still in legal limbo. DeLay's Hammer team, including Rep. John Doolittle of CA and Rep. John Carter of TX, have quite admirably succeeded in convincing potential Maj. Leader candidates to keep their power dry -- and convincing colleagues that Delay would return.
It's hard to say for sure, but there are probably a good number of GOPers in the House who don't want DeLay to return -- but an equal number who miss his effectiveness. (Temporary Maj. Leader Roy Blunt's reviews are mixed.)
Today's Hotline will have more on the DeLay situation and on the potential scenarios should his legal woes extend through the new year. [MARC AMBINDER]
Kinda says something when IL Sen. Barack Obama is slated to be the top bill at next month's Florida Democratic Party conference in Orlando, especially when three potential presidential candidates -- Vilsack, Warner, Edwards -- are also speaking.
Not sure exactly what it says -- maybe "Fla Dems Looking to HRC's Successor?"
Maybe that Obama is the biggest party rock star since HRC? Maybe that Robert Gibbs just does a heckuva job?
BTW: if Nussle wins IA Gov, does that effectively put the kibosh on Vilsack's presidential aspirations?
Our favorite non-mysterious Mystery Pollster has posted a tour de force on his websiter this morning regarding the Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll before the statwide initiative vote two Tuesdays ago. (See Hotline polling editor Aoife McCarthy's Margin for Error for more.)
"For what it's worth," Pollster tells us in an e-mail, "this piece touches a couple of different angles: -- The obvious one, for pollsters and campaign people about why the poll was wrong. -- My response to the .... new "fraud" conspiracy theories coming Fitrakis, Wasserman and Friedman on the blogosphere's extreme left wing. -- An implicit story suggestion for investigative reporters in Ohio (see the last paragraph)."
We hope you'll check it out.
THe DSCC has $20.3 million on hand, compared to the NRSC's $9.3 million. The NRSC continues to outspend the Dems.
Full numbers after the jump.
Continue reading "November Senate Cmte Reports" »
Emotions runneth over on the floor of the House. Just now, brand new rep Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH). quoting a Marine friend from back home,
addressed Murtha: "cowards cut and run and marines stay and fight."
The place went batty, and Schmidt's words are being taken down. The chair suspended floor action.
As we watch a nasty but somewhat refreshingly honest debate on the floor of the House, here are other stories to chew on as we head into the weekend...
1. The GA Voter ID requirement fight. Was the DOJ's preclearance the result of political pressure? Did the GA GOPer who sponsored the measure really say that blacks won't vote unless they're paid?
2. The NAACP's Orlando head switches party affiliations.
3. The FEC says a group of political blogs trigger the press exemption from federal campaign finance laws.
4. Bob Woodward tells Time that he prompted his source to confess to Fitzgerald.
Right now, the House is debating rules for the upcoming vote on what the GOP is calling the "Murtha" resolution. But the GOP's version is not Murtha's resolution, which below the jump.
Continue reading "Murtha Res. Update" »
From
today's House Race Hotline:
"DCCC Exec Dir.
John Lapp, in a chat 11/17, lists all the declared Dem candidates who are military veterans. They are:
- Chris Carney (PA 10): LtComm in the U.S. Naval Reserve; from '03 to 8/04, served as Special Advisor to the Ass't Sec/Def for Special Ops; activated for Operation Enduring Freedom and Noble Eagle
- Andrew Duck (MD 06): Intel. Liaison Officer and Intel Staff Officer in Iraq; one of 17 children
- Tim Dunn (NC 08): in U.S. Marine Corps Reserves; in '95, established his own law firm
- Jay Fawcett (CO 05): Awarded Bronze Star after serving in first Gulf War
- Steve Filson (CA 11): retired from Navy in '94
- David Harris (TX 06): Deployed to Iraq in 2/03, spending 14 months there as a Logistics Officer. Now Ass't Prof. of Military Science at UT-Arlington.
- Bryan Lentz (PA 07): commanded a civil affairs unit in Iraq responsible for reconstruction in Mosul
- Eric Massa (NY 29): Served in Desert Storm, and as Spec. Ass't to Gen. Wesley Clark, served as staff on Armed Services Cmte.
- Patrick Murphy (PA 08): Served in Iraq, awarded Bronze Star in 2/04
- Joe Sulzer (OH 18): Vietnam veteran, and later mayor of
Chillicothe, OH
- Tim Walz (MN 01): A Command Sergeant; served overseas in Iraq during Operation Enduring Freedom
- Mike Weaver (KY 02): Joined Navy at age of 17, served for 4 years
UPDATED...
As part of his tour of the Deep South, Sen. John McCain is set to endorse AL LG candidate George Wallace, Jr. (R). Those unfamiliar with Wallace will wonder: is the younger man a chip off the father's block? So is McCain campaigning for a guy who holds controversial views on race?
The liberal Southern Poverty Law Center says Wallace recently addressed the Council of Conservative Citizens, a group that skirts the boundary of polite discourse on race (to say the least.)
Wallace told the AP: "There is nothing hateful about those people I've seen."
Here are two mission statements from the CCC's website: "We believe that the United States derives from and is an integral part of European civilization and the European people and that the American people and government should remain European in their composition and character. We also oppose all efforts to mix the races of mankind, to promote non-white races over the European-American people through so-called "affirmative action" and similar measures, to destroy or denigrate the European-American heritage, including the heritage of the Southern people, and to force the integration of the races."
But the NAACP once honored Wallace, Jr. with a Freedom award. And Wallace, who switched parties a few years ago, has built solid relations with black leaders in AL. By several accounts, he's involved in outreach to black voters in AL on behalf of Republicans. Observers of the state politics say he's been a careful steward of his father's legacy, warts and all.
John Weaver, a top McCain adviser, tells us: "George Wallace Jr., is an enlightened progressive leader who always speaks of tolerance and carries forth his father's views at the end of his life. He has strong support across the racial and political spectrum." [MARC AMBINDER]
We can now confirm that there will be a "Murtha Vote" later this p.m. Speaker Dennis Hastert's spokesperson Ron Bonjean tells The Hotline that it's a "vote to send a message to our American troops that we believe in their mission of fighting terrorists and we must not retreat and defeat."
Angered by what he saw as House Dems "applauding but then backing off" Murtha's statement on 11/17, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) rose this a.m. at the House GOP Conference and suggested that they call for a vote to force Dems to show "where they stand to the American people," according to his spokesperson Larry VanHoose. Hayworth's call was met with what VanHoose described as "enthusiastic applause" from the rank-and-file GOP.
Pushing aside votes on extending the tax cuts, reauthorizing the Patriot Act and a long-awaited measure on federal flood insurance, the GOP leadership has turned Hayworth's idea into a resolution and will bring it to floor of the House for a vote by 7 pm, according to senior GOP leadership sources.
The question now is what Leader Pelosi and her caucus will do. After keeping her Dems in line on both major fiscal votes on 11/17, does she stick them all in cabs and push them off to DCA, IAD and BWI? Or will some Dems from conservative or military-heavy districts insist on staying and casting their "nays?"
CNN is reporting that Dems are planning on having just Murtha debate the resolution, but it remains to be seen how and if the rest of the caucus votes.
Here's a draft of the resolution:
Draft text of the expected resolution is attached and below.
H.Res. __
Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the deployment of United States forces in Iraq be terminated immediately.
Resolved, That it is the sense of the House of Representatives that the deployment of United States forces in Iraq be terminated immediately. [JONATHAN MARTIN AND MARC AMBINDER
Lost in the fizz of yesterday's Hill bedlam was a quiet visit paid to Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) by actor Brad Pitt.
When Pitt's team first requested the meeting with the Iowa senator, they laid down some conditions: clear the office. Don't introduce Pitt to anyone. Don't talk about the visit ahead of time.
But we're told the senator didn't take kindly to being told what to do in the confines of his own office.
So when Pitt, sporting black hair and a bushy beard, showed up around 2:00 pm, every available member of the Harkin staff -- even if they were busy -- was arrayed around the office. Harkin proceeded to introduce them to Pitt, one by one. "He got the personal introduction, along with their function and everthing else," says someone who was there.
When they did manage to speak privately, Pitt and Harkin discussed Africa and trade issues.[JEREMY PELZER AND MARC AMBINDER]
Every Friday, the Hotline lists the weekend travel of potential 2008 presidential candidates. And we regularly update our WH '08 Tracking documents (See here, for Democrats, and here for Republicans) so you can keep tabs on your favorite -- or your potential opponent. Check it out -- we've got details of every major trip taken in 2005 by every potential candidate.
Continue reading "Weekend Calendar" »
The Hotline has learned that the House GOP leadership might bring a symbolic, but politically charged, resolution to the floor today that would force Dems to register an up-or-down vote on Rep. John Murtha's call for U.S. troops to immediately withdraw from Iraq. The pre-Thanksgiving recess vote will force Dems to go on the record on one of the year's most sensitive issues and provide the NRCC a roll call vote on the so-called "cut and run" question going into '06. [JONATHAN MARTIN]
Update: Rep. J.D. Hayworth is the prime mover of this idea. AS of 2pm ET, House GOP leaders are mulling it over.
One GOP leadership source said that the approps loss was worth sustaining because it then allowed "moderates to 'breathe'" before taking what the leadership viewed to be a tougher and more important vote on the budget bill.
A GOP leadership source tells us they knew they had the votes to win on the budget bill going in (including the expected 'no's'), but that "the only surprise was" Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), "who [conservative] RSC members had assured us was a 'yes.'
This source added that they knew that Rep. Leanord Boswell (D-IA) was not there to vote, but that the absence of Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-NY) was the "icing on the cake and gave us the 2 vote breathing room" for the win.
One CoS for a moderate GOPer said that the arm-twisting was targeted, as GOP leaders "left the 'hard no's' alone and went after those who were obtainable." Another GOP CoS said that [Energy and Commerce Cmte Chair Rep. Joe] Barton "got beat up pretty good" [HOTLINE STAFF]
Yesterday we attended the Senate GOP conf.'s pen-and-pad event for right-leaning bloggers, much like the one the House GOP caucus held last month. Three WH '08 candidates showed up -- four, if you count Rick Santorum (whose re-election in '06 is anything but assured). Sen. George Allen (VA) went first, and while we missed it, he came ready to talk about his proposal to ban taxes on broadband access. Sam Brownback (KS) used the first few minutes of his time to call attention to the "least-reported humanitarian disaster in the world" -- the ongoing Congo Civil War.
For more on the event, including John Thune's blogger triumphalism, Maj. Leader Bill Frist getting a little wacky and an impromptu strategy session that followed, check out today's edition of the Blogometer. [WILLIAM BEUTLER]
The RNC's new TV ad in Las Vegas is little more than a deliberate poke in the eye to Min. Leader Harry Reid. According to a knowledgable Nevada source, the buy there is less than $5K for airing during the three network Sunday shows. And no buy in Reno, the more conservative market in the state. [MARC AMBINDER]
Communities for Quality Education,a left-leaning advocacy group, asked Dem pollster Al Quinlan to survey Loudoun Co., VA residents about the 11/8 election.
Among their unreleased findings: Bush's disapproval percentage in Loudoun, which he won in 2004 by 12 points, was 53%. Gov. Mark Warner's approval: 75-18%. Transportation and education topped the list of issues of most concern to voters there.
Not surprisingly, the CQE touts findings that show voters want more $$ for their schools. Interesting to us is Loudouners relative lack of concern about social issues, another bit of evidence that most folks in this fast growing exurban county have a libertarian streak to them and are more concerned about the ability of government institutions to keep up with growth. [MARC AMBINDER]
The Republican National Committee has taken the unusual step of broadcasting an ad to rebut the claims of Democratic Leader Harry Reid that President Bush deliberately distorted intelligence to persuade Congress to go to war.
The ad will air on national cable channels and in select local markets, including Las Vegas, the largest in Reid's home state of Nevada.
The ad features audio quotations from Democrats -- including Reid -- speaking about the danger Saddam Hussein posed to Iraq and to America. It ends with a slate: "Call Harry Reid: Tell Him To Stop Playing Partisan Politics And Stand Behind Our Troops." [MARC AMBINDER]
Republican Governors Association executive director Michael Pieper is leaving the RGA to become the managing director of R and R Partners in DC. The RGA plans to announce his replacement -- and it's Mitt Romney's pick, by the way -- on Monday.
It took a 1:39 a.m. roll call, but the House GOP finally passed its reconcilliation measure by three votes. A "hard-fought" win, says the Washington Post.
But earlier in the day, the 22 GOPers listed below who combined with all House Dems to defeat the largest of the Congress' domestic spending measures, the so-called "Labor-H" bill, represent the larger conservative/moderate split in the House GOP's Conference.
For the conservatives, the spending on such programs as Medicaid and Medicare was too much. For the moderates, it was not enough. A similar coalition has threatened to sink earlier big-ticket House bills, but the likes of Hastert, DeLay and Blunt, Cantor have always done what it takes -- no matter how long it takes -- to deliver a "W"to Dubya. Not this time. What does this portend for Acting-Leader Blunt's aspirations? For DeLay's return? For Cantor's hopes? [JONATHAN MARTIN]
Castle (DE-AL) Moran, Jerry (KS-01) Renzi (AZ-01)
Emerson (MO-08) Murphy (PA-18) Rogers, Mike D. (AL-03)
Fitzpatrick (PA-08) Nunes (CA-21) Simmons (CT-02)
Gerlach (PA-06) Otter (ID-01) Stearns (FL-06)
Gibbons (NV-02) Paul (TX-14) Thomas, B. (CA-22)
Johnson, N. (CT-05) Pickering (MS-03) Wilson, H. (NM-01)
Kirk (IL-10) Platts (PA-19)
Leach (IA-02) Ramstad (MN-03)
This statement from Scott McClellan just hit inboxes:
"Congressman Murtha is a respected veteran and politician who has a record of supporting a strong America. So it is baffling that he is endorsing the policy positions of Michael Moore and the extreme liberal wing of the Democratic party. The eve of an historic democratic election in Iraq is not the time to surrender to the terrorists. After seeing his statement, we remain baffled -- nowhere does he explain how retreating from Iraq makes America safer."
Wow.
from NBC Nightly News that from (probably) any other source.
Which makes Nightly's choice of a lede important: Rep. John Murtha's hard line.
Crisp, refreshing and yet, hot... off the presses. You can get the full dope sheet here.
Here's what we said in today's Hotline Spotlight.
For months, Pres. Bush has been plagued by polls showing his lowest ever approval rating. But what hadn't faltered was Bush's support among GOPers, until now. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll (conducted by Financial Dynamics) reveals some cracks in the GOP foundation.
-- 60% of voters think the nation is on the wrong track and 41% of GOPers agree; that GOP "wrong track" number is the highest we've recorded. The previous GOPer "wrong track" high was 29% in Oct.
-- GOPers "strongly" approving of Bush's job has dropped to 37%, the lowest since this poll began, in Jan., down from 59% in 3/05.
-- Asked why voters disapprove of Bush, the top reason is Iraq. This is also the top reason among GOPers (34%).
-- Pluralities agree both Cheney (49%) and Rumsfeld (46%) do more to hurt Bush than help, 72% say Rice "mostly helps."
-- This admin-wide disapproval is seeping into Congress w/26% saying they will replace their current Rep., up from 19% last month. Among GOPers alone it increased from 10% to 26%.
The new DSCC/DCCC report on party loyalty has some interesting take away stats -- if true. And remember that the flip side of "rubber stamping" is "fidelity to core principles."
From the report: "SENATE: On average, Senate Republicans supported President Bush 94 percent of the time in his first term. This is significantly higher than the 86 percent of the time Senate Democrats supported Clinton during his presidency, the 77 percent of the time Senate Republicans supported the first President Bush, and the 73.5 percent of the time that Senate Republicans backed President Reagan during his tenure."
"HOUSE: House Republicans supported Bush more than his predecessors as well, with an average 84 percent support rate in his first term. House Democrats supported President Clinton 74 percent of the time, while House Republicans supported the first President Bush and President Reagan less than 70 percent of the time on average."
In our Diageo/Hotline poll, a majority said they would vote for McCain in a primary, but many are confused by what McCain stands for. 40% of voters don't know or refused to answer when asked if McCain is pro-life, including 31% of GOPers. The same was true when asked if he was a free trader – 41% overall did not know and 36% of GOPers. Despite this, when GOPers were asked why they may not vote for McCain in a primary, the biggest reason (34%) was that they do not agree with his positions. Are we working on a don’t ask don't tell policy here? [AOIFE MCCARTHY]
Republicans have wasted no time in responding to Rep. John Murtha's (D) call for American troops to withdraw from Iraq. Rep. David Dreier (R), in a statement, said he has "the utmost respect for John Murtha and his service to our country" but said his speech was "absolutely wrong" and added he was "baffled by it." He adds: "I would hope that my Democratic colleagues would refrain from further dismissing the accomplishments of our troops and start channeling their considerable energy into supporting victory rather than defeat."
Without mentioning Murtha by name, Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX) added that calling for immediate troop withdrawal is "reprehensible and irresponsible." And Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX) said such a plan was "wrongheaded at best and dangerous at worst."
Watching Murtha at his a.m. presser followed by the tough yet respectful GOP response (see Dreier's quote above), we were again struck by a pattern that has been mentioned in the past, but ought to be explored further. Among policy makers, there are few louder or more consistent blocs of war critics than that of Vietnam veterans. [JONATHAN MARTIN AND JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Continue reading "As Rush Would Say, This Is A Big Deal, Folks" »
From Today's Hotline: A deeper reading of this profile of Rendon leads some to wonder if he is actually the "source of the Nile" on the selling of questionable intel which led to the Iraq War.
Continue reading "Rendon = The Key?" »
When the DNC primary calendar commission was first proposed by MI and endorsed by the DNC leadership, Iowa, with its hard-to-attend caucuses and lack of racial diversity, was seen as the likely loser. But as the commission prepares to vote on Dec. 10, it's New Hampshire that's feeling the heat, and Iowa that's expecting a reprieve. No commission member we've talked to suggests that Iowa's first in the nation status won't be preserved. And nearly every commission member now predicts that a majority of the committee wants to add a few caucuses between IA and NH (or on the same day of NH.)
In one way, by truly being the "first" event (caucus OR primary), it was simply easier to come up with proposals that kept Iowa where it was. NH's demands were always more complex...Iowans didn't care what came out after it, so long as there were seven intervening days of post-IA tribulation. New Hampshire's tradition dictates that only IA comes before it -- certainly no other primaries or caucuses -- and nothing comes until at least seven days after it.
We'd venture to say that at least half of the reason for IA's probable success in this endeaver is its more masterful management of internal DNC politics. It didn't press buttons when it didn't have to, and we think that many Iowans have tacitly accepted a key compromise: that it's ok to have another caucus a week or eight days later. IA also seems to have understood how important racial and regional diversity was to other members of the commission -- NH, by virtue of its geographic proximity to, say, Vermont and Massachusetts, simply had one strike against it from the start.
Reaction to ex-NH Dem chair Joe Keefe's letter to DNC commission members imploring them to preserve the state's first-in-the-nation status may actually be hardening the position of members who want the status quo to change.
The full text of Keefe's letter is after the jump, so you can decide for yourself. One prominent member of the commission called it "offensive" for suggesting that, yes, NH wants diversity -- but only AFTER NH. [MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "Did Iowa Win?" »
Despite the Litany (TM) of woes, those GOP younglings still know how to party. Here's an e-mail invite we were sent, written by a current Republican official in the style of a Drudge siren story. We've left out a few details ... we're not party crashers... but it's worth reading, in full.
Continue reading "Karaoke With The GOPers..." »
The Hotline was the first to bring you news that a growing number of DNC primary commission members would vote to add several caucuses between IA and NH in Jan '08 at the commission's meeting in December. When we first asked New Hampshire Dems about it, they were cautious -- and downplayed the notion that any such consensus was building. But within the past 24 hours, the NH Dems have moved to a war posture, acknwoledging the very real possibility that the committee would vote to recommend precisely that set of changes.
First, ex-NH Dem chair Joe Keefe sent a letter to the commission, warning that he'd fight tooth and nail to preserve IA and NH's special status -- including their prized positions before the so-called "pre-window" ends in early Feb. In today's Hotline, NH Dem chair Kathy Sullivan goes further, telling us that if the commission votes to "cram" several states in between IA and NH, it'd be akin to "cutting us off at the knees." She'd fight it through the rules and bylaws committee and all the way to DNC chair Howard Dean, whose endorsement (or lack of an endorsement) could kill the proposals before the entire DNC membership. Still, as commission member Donna Brazile told us, "At the end of the day, there will be a vote to change the status quo. I just don't know which way it's going to go." More later, On Call. [MARC AMBINDER]
PA Rep. John Murtha's press conference 11/17 calling for troop withdrawal is getting props from unusual sources. Murtha is the ranking Dem on the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and represents a veteran-heavy district in the heart of Western PA's Steel Country (think The Deer Hunter for a mental profile of his district). He's a culturally conservative Dem with a hawkish record on foreign policy, supporting the Iraq war in '02 and the first Persian Gulf War. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Continue reading "Murtha Has Spoken" »
National Journal's CongressDailyAM reports that a coalition of groups opposed to Alito's nomination will launch a TV campaign today designed to pressure Sens. Linc Chafee, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins to vote "nay." From the ad: "The right wing has already taken over the West Wing. Don't let them take over your Supreme Court." The ads will run on national cable and in markets that reach Rhode Island and Maine.
Progress For America begins running a week-long ad today featuring Samuel A. Alito's former law clerks. The spot will run on CNN and Fox News nationally, as well as on local broadcasts in Arkansas, targeting that state's two Dem senators, and Maine, targeting pro-choice GOP Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.
And the Committee for Justice begins a week-long TV and radio campaign that hits liberal groups by pegging them as defenders of extreme left-wing values. "Today, liberal groups led by People for the American Way oppose Judge lito's nomination to the Supreme Court. Their agenda is clear. They want to take God out of the Pledge of Allegiance and are fighting to redefine traditional marriage. They support partial birth abortion, sanction the burning of the American flag, and even oppose pornography filters on public library computers."
The latest Diageo/Hotline poll shows John McCain with a solid base for a WH bid with 57% of all voters likely to vote for him a general election. In a two-way, McCain easily defeats Hillary Clinton (52%-39%). In 3-way match-ups with McCain running as an indie the race becomes closer. McCain garners 40% against Clinton (34%) and Jeb Bush (18%) and ties with Clinton (35%) when Condi Rice (20%) is the GOP candidate. While voters still remain fuzzy on McCain's stances, it's so far so good for the Sen., regardless of which letter appears after his name.
We'll post the full results later in the day, after we've given our subscribers a chance to look at them. There's plenty of interesting McCain fodder in there, including the percentage of Dems who think he is pro-life.
The Michigan Republican Party's website has several items worth checking out.
One is an explicit comparison between RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman and DNC Chairman Howard Dean, something the national party itself is loath to put on the record.
Also: a prominent banner promoting next March's Southern/Midwestern Republican Leadership Conferences, a sign of how important that event will be to some aspiring '08ers. It's the first banner we've seen promoting the conference jointly.
More amusing are its efforts to peg MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) as ineffectual, including a web ad that compares her unfavorably to NY Gov. George Pataki, IN Gov. Mitch Daniels, and even (egads) NY Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Aspiring presidential candidates are dipping their pinkies into the blogosphere. Real blogging is hard. It requires the candidate's staff to accept some measure of unpredictability and to relinquish message control. Many '08 hopefuls have therefore opted for the option of calling a list of press releases a "blog," which will not endear them to purists.
The most active potential candidate is Sen. John Edwards, whose post 11/04 outreach to bloggers included a private home-cooked meal at his Georgetown manse. That means Edwards knows the biggest secret to obtaining cred in the blog world: treat like them the media they aspire to be and give them access. Edwards is wont to post pronouncements to his site before they appear elsewhere; his "I was wrong" op-ed in the Washington Post was previewed on the blog. Edwards' site contains original editorial content almost every day, although there are quite a few "open threads." Elizabeth Edwards lurks through the comments section and has been known to correspond with posters. Sen. John Kerry has a robust site but no blog.
Ret. Gen. Wes Clark, whose presidential campaign was a weird amalgam of establishment anti-Dean angst and grassroots, web-based passion, personally writes nearly every day on his "wesblog". His most recent: "Ensure Fair Play on Armed Forces Radio." A lot of Clark's content is original, and much of it is proactive, based on his own ideas and thoughts. Along with Edwards and IA Gov. Tom Vilsack, Clark has guest-posted to Josh Marshall's TPM Cafe site. A side note: Clark regularly scores high presidential preference polls conducted by major Dem bloggers, perhaps an artifact of netroots support in '04. UPDATE: Several e-mailers beg me to mention the comments section of Clark's site, which is quite active. [MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "'08ers And The Blogs" »
On 11/15 both Kennedy and Feinstein toned down their attacks against Alito, a surprising fact in light of his '85 memo holding that the Constitution does not protect a right to an abortion. But after their 11/15 meetings with the nominee, both senators said something to the affect of "don't worry he cleared that up." Feinstein said she felt "reassured" and Kennedy said Alito believed he was "older and wiser" now. I guess John-Peter Pan-Roberts never grew up after his time in the Reagan admin.
So, did someone slip these Dems a sedative? Is Dramamine being served in their black bean soup? Did Reid invest in one of those peaceful, soothing music machines, the ones that make you feel like you've landed in a tropical rainforest? No, no, no what's more likely is that there is something more here. [NORA MCALVANAH]
Continue reading "It's Oh So Quiet..." »
VA Gov. Mark Warner has been asked to be "Democratic guest speaker" for the famed Gridiron dinner in Washington, D.C. on Dec. 3.
What fun it must have been for Senate Majority Project executive director Mike Gehrke to write this press release: "Today, the Senate Majority Project publicly called on Vermont Senate Candidate Greg Parke to sign a release allowing public inspection of his entire military record. A few days ago, Parke released a letter from "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" founder John O'Neill endorsing him, asking for contributions to his campaign and linking the group's effort to defeat John Kerry to the Vermont Senate race. Parke has since admitted that he asked for O'Neill’s help through another leader of the Swift Boat group...."
Before he was ED of SMP, Gehrke was the res. dir. of the DNC. Before that, he was research dir. of Sen. John Kerry's presidential campaign, and spend hundreds of hours pouring through his boss's military record at the beheast of Swift Boat pressure.
What's good for the goose, Gehrke says, it good for the gander.
In conjunction with Pres. Bush's renewed push to defend his Iraq policy and, in turn, blame the Dems for their lack of support, the WH press shop has been "setting the record straight" all week. Starting on 11/13 and continuing everyday so far this week (see the 11/14 and 11/15 releases), the WH press staff has churned out a series of releases headlined, "Setting the record straight." These releases go on to dispute various Dem or media attacks on Iraq. While it's not new that the WH pushes back on attacks, it is new when they use the official WH press shop to do it. In this admin, the role of public rapid response had been handed off to the folks at the RNC. And while the RNC is still churning out plenty of anti-Dem copy on Iraq, the addition of the WH press shop in this official capacity certainly is an interesting development. Read into what you want.
...albeit in an oblique way. His response to a Manhattan judge's ruling that the state must release 12 allegedly unrecitivized sexual predators: "Today's ruling creates special, new judge-made rights and protections for rapists, predators and pedophiles who are about to be released from prison into our communities. The court is granting convicted sexual predators more rights than law abiding New Yorkers. Without question, if this ruling is allowed to stand it would jeopardize the safety of our children and communities throughout the State. For those reasons, we will be appealing the decision."
Pataki had ordered the 12 confined because prison officials believed they remained dangerous.
Yesterday's Quinnipiac poll suggesting that gubernatorial candidate Rep. Jim Davis (D) has gained on Republicans Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher is the latest sign of life for the Florida Democratic Party, which just a year ago was a shell its Republican counterpart in the state.
True, the Q-poll has a shaky track record in FL, but the numbers are a confidence booster, and Republicans aren't disputing them.
Part of the credit goes to chair Karen Thurman, who has helped to rescue the party from scandal and nearly, financial ruin. The party raised more than $1M last quarter, the best since Lawton Chiles was governor in 1997. The fundraising arms for state senate candidates and state house candidates have moved under the FDP's roof.
In August, with input from Chad Clanton, who is running Bill Nelson's Senate campaign, Thurman hired Luis Navarro, a long-time political organizer, to be its executive director. Navarro is a former SEIU political director, went on to briefly serve as Sen. John Kerry's primary campaign political director, and organized for America Coming Together in the Southwest. He's a union guy -- so whether he can corral votes and money in a decidedly non-union state remains to be seen.
Dems also credit Gov. Jeb Bush, whose decision to stay out of the gubernatorial race and not anoint a successor has divided the Republican Party. Nagging questions about Bush's executive performance are also creeping into the numbers of Republicans running for statewide office. BTW: it took a hurricane's direct heat on decidedly Dem counties (Broward et. al). to get Floridians in an ill mood about Jeb's hurricane leadership.
And then Katherine Harris, whose campaign against Nelson appears to be in mortal danger.
But the Dems' success in Fla is also a reflection of the momentum Dems have acquired nationally, and observers of state politics wonder if the party can prosper without stronger leadership at the top. (See Chuck Todd's column on the Ohio Democratic Party for an example of how tidings without firm guidance can spoil good times.)
Times like these are where a good, strong national party chair is make or break. So Howard Dean... over to you. [MARC AMBINDER]
From today's Hotline: "Harris manager Jim Dornan: "Effective today, I have resigned as campaign manager... I will continue as a Senior Advisor to the campaign. As often happens in campaigns, there was a difference of opinion as to what direction the campaign should be taking. Congresswoman Harris feels that in this period of national crisis, her first obligation is to her constituents in the 13th District, to fully fulfill her term, and to serve them everyday in Congress. I felt it was imperative that Katherine devote more time and energy to her campaign. This inevitably led to conflicts over time, scheduling and strategy. It has been a privilege to be a part of the Harris effort, and even though we have had differences of opinion on strategy and tactics, in the end, I know she can be a great candidate and a great United States Senator. I want to especially thank Ed Rollins under whose guidance I learned a very great deal and my staff, whose hard work and loyalty I will always appreciate" (Hotline reporting, 11/15).
Besides losing her campaign manager, Harris is down 20+ points in a matchup with incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. This is of particular concern for Harris supporters since the same poll shows Nelson with a re-elect below 40%.
No wonder state House Speaker Allan Bense is being courted again. [CHUCK TODD]
Update: Harris released her own statement on Dornan's departure. "We greatly appreciate Jim's efforts as Campaign Manager. He has created a great team with excellent strategies and tactics to follow a roadmap for victory. Jim's talents and interests in my campaign were principally of a consulting nature and he will continue in that role. I am grateful for his contributions to my campaign. He has laid the foundation for our success."
Harris also announced that Jamie Miller who currently serves as the deputy campaign manager will assume the role of acting campaign manager. Miller is a past exec. dir. of the FL GOP.
Bill Frist was on the "Today" show this a.m. to talk about his plan for withdrawing troops from Iraq. But instead of the traditional "live from Capitol Hill" shot, he was on the National Mall, helping build Habitat for Humanity houses for Hurricane Katrina victims. Frist wore khakis, a sweatshirt and a tool apron. At the beginning of the program -- when they were promoting what was on the show -- they showed Frist in a hard hat, hammering away. Too bad audio problems made it hard to understand him. NBC's Katie Couric stopped the interview to give technicians a chance to fix it. [EMILY GOODIN]
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) is doing a lot of good for incumbents lately -- in Washington State. Stevens' efforts on two specific energy issues have lately garnered great local press for incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) and Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA 08), both of whom are up for for re-election in '06.
Cantwell, who has emerged as a leader of Senate Democrats on energy issues, has battled Stevens' bid to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; her amendment to strip the budget bill of a provision opening ANWR to drilling failed 51-48, but generated the kind of local press that every candidate would love to get. And last week, when Cantwell immediately denounced Stevens' proposal to repeal the Magnuson Amendment and open Puget Sound to oil tankers, influential Washington State political writer Joel Connelly opined the effort "may only put a tailwind behind" Cantwell's bid, while the Seattle Post-Intelligencer wrote that "one could conclude Republicans must want to guarantee" Cantwell's re-election. Should the bill reach the Senate floor, Cantwell has promised a filibuster. [REID WILSON]
Continue reading "Bridge To Re-Election" »
Del. Bob McDonnell's (R) razor-thin margin over state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) in VA's AG race got even thinner over the weekend. With all of VA's 2426 precincts reporting, McDonnell now leads by a mere 446 votes -- out of 1,942,933 cast -- according to a 11/14 pm check of the State Bd of Elections website.
McDonnell's lead has been narrowed as localities throughout VA recount their returns and examine provisional ballots. The localities have until tomorrow, 11/15, to canvass their ballots and the election board must certify the results on 11/28.
Deeds' gains have come from recounts in core Democratic precincts in Richmond and Norfolk according to GOP sources.
As this entry is posted, Deeds was holding a presser in Richmond to "make an announcement regarding the most recent results."
For their part, McDonnell's camp is "moving forward with transition, inaugural and legislative plans" for the 1/06 General Assembly session, says manager Janet Polarek. Polarek added that they were confident McDonnell would hold his lead, saying it would be "unprecedented" for the recount to deliver the necessary votes for Deeds to inch ahead.
True enough, but a margin of victory numbering in the hundreds is also unprecedented in VA. Stay tuned. [JONATHAN MARTIN]
Sen. Rick Santorum has formally challenged his probable Dem opponent, Bob Casey Jr., to debates -- a year before the election.
"Dear Bob,
The election for the United States Senate is less than a year away, and there has already been tremendous attention paid to our expected match-up. Your campaign manager and your surrogates have been active in viciously attacking my positions and my record. However, so many in Pennsylvania know little about where you stand. I believe it is time for us to come together and approach these issues head-on through a series of debates. "
Continue reading "Santorum Challenges Casey To Debates" »
The Greenberg/Carville/Shrum DemocracyCorps poll, which has been among the more pessimistic of Dem partisan polls, now sees an electorate "at the edge of political upheaval."
If.
"if the Democrats use every controversy to separate themselves from the Washington mess and define the choice, themselves and their policies."
Continue reading "DemocracyCorps On The Verge" »
For our money, the most interesting political event of early '06 will be the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, sponsored by the Tennessee Republican Party. This year, delegations from 25 southern and midwestern states will convene in Memphis, TN for a weekend of speeches, party-building and '08 prospecting.
Invited speakers include just about every major 2008 GOPer, and with 25 state parties represented by more than 3,000 activists and officials, it'll be tough for any of them to resist the invite.
Stay with the Hotline and On Call for full coverage of the '06 SRLC.
Cattle season's coming early this presidential cycle.
For the sake of argument, we'll define a 2008 cattle call as an event where three or more potential presidential candidates visit at roughly the same time, attracting at least two national political reporters.
The Florida Democratic Conference, sponsored by the state Democratic Party, does not pretend that it's invited national Dem figures to speak because they're nice people.
Here's an item on the state party's website: "The Disney Contemporary Resort in Orlando will host this year's conference, which will be a rally point to energize Florida Democrats and focus our efforts on the 2006 state elections and take a sneak peak at the 2008 presidential race."
Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) and Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) are all scheduled to speak to delegates from Dec. 9 to Dec. 12 Vilsack's name is listed on the draft agenda. The party says he's "considered a potential presidential candidate in 2008."
There are four other, as yet unfilled speaker slots, two of which will go to Edwards and Warner. Stay tuned for info on the others.
All three presidnetial hopefuls will spend time in Florida meeting with top donors and activists.
IN Sen. Evan Bayh (D) today became the first possible '08er to announce his support for Ben Bernanke as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, saying he was impressed with Bernanke’s background and experience during a private meeting on Tuesday, November 1st.
"Ben Bernanke has made it clear to me that he understands the economic challenges our country is facing today," Bayh, a member of the Senate Banking committee, said in a statement. "I believe he offers the right blend of intellectual ability and practical experience to face these challenges, and I will support his nomination to become our next Federal Reserve Chairman."
Wendy Long and the Judicial Confirmation Network believe that Roe was wrongly decided. So why, given evidence that Judge Sam A. Alito once openly expressed a similar belief, do they seek to downplay and shrug off his remarks?
Weren't these the same folks who were aching for a statement like this from Harriet Miers?
Further, Long, in suggesting that Alito's 1985 application essay does not mean what it appears to mean, notes that Alito has expressed reverence for precedence. That implies that even if Alito opposes Roe, he respects it as [strengthened through Casey and thus] settled law.
But days ago, after Alito seemed to tacitly endorse Roe's precedential value, Long was quick to say that, of course, Alito could have very well meant to slyly suggest that Roe was not a settled precedent at all.
Such language games are a sign of how quickly social conservative interest groups are eager to help the White House post-Miers -- even -- dare we suggest -- at the cost of their own coherence. The implication is that if Alito actually said something definitive about Roe, then liberals will find a way to filibuster him, perhaps joined by pro-choice mod Republicans.
BTW: Conservoblogger Professor Bainbridge is quite clear on what the Washington Times article means.
Continue reading "Abortion Contortions" »
WH Counselor Dan Bartlett appeared on the morning shows this a.m. and criticized Democrats who claim the president mislead the country on Iraq. Bartlett went from the use of the generic term "Democrats" to using specific names. But note on what shows he used which word:
On the "Today" show, he said it was "Democrats" who have accused President Bush of misleading the country. On "Good Morning America," he said it was the "chairman of the Democratic Party" and "other key members of the Senate" along with "moveon.org and other leftists, liberal Democratic organizations" who have brought forth the allegations. On the "Early Show" he said the allegations were "unbecoming to a national leader such as Howard Dean" On "Fox & Friends" he said the charges came from "politicians here in Washington" and on "American Morning" he criticized "the Democratic Party and their liberal interest groups." {EMILY GOODIN]
Anyone else surprised by Time's decision to rate the best and worst governors in the country? This decision by Time falls smack in the column of "creating news" something that media critics from coast-to-coast never like. Considering the various products this publication is associated with, there's nothing we love more than a best/worst list. But we're sure the media bashers will get on their high-horse big time over Time's decision to rank governors.
This will be a list that certain voters will be reminded of CONSTANTLY. From presidential wannabes like Mike Huckabee and Mark Warner using their "best" rating as a bio topper to whoever is running against Mark Sanford in South Carolina who will likely educate the state of Time's "worst" rating for the Republican we thought was a presidential dark-horse in 2008.
Also, the decision to leave Jeb Bush and Bill Richardson off of any "best" list is a mistake in our book. The lead of Time's list says "when it comes to raw political talent, there's not a Bill Clinton in this group." Spend five minutes with either Jeb or Richardson and any impartial observer will admit, both possess Clinton's "raw talent." Neither Jeb nor Richardson are natives of the states they govern and yet both figured out how to epitomize what a Floridian or New Mexican expect in their political leaders. That's talent. [CHUCK TODD]
Sunday's Boston Globe reports that an official announcement from GOP Gov. Mitt Romney about re-election in 2006 is expected by mid-December. If he announces for re-election (unlikely), it means he's saying 'no' to a 2008 presidential bid. A decision not to seek re-election means he'll join Bill Frist, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Mark Warner and John Edwards as major presidential candidates who are essentially politically unemployed going into 2007, the official start of the presidential race. Anyone who follows presidential politics knows how much harder it is to hold an active office (senate/governor etc.) while simultaneously running for president.
It's hard to know how these numbers could possibly read worse for President Bush, even after a week and a half where (arguably) the White House managed to keep the major media from ruminating on Bush's woes.
The poll says 50% disagree with the notion that Bush is "is honest and ethical."
More: "Only 36 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing as president, and an astounding 68 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction of the country -- the highest in Bush's presidency."
"The president can take some solace in the fact that 42 percent of Americans believe he is honest and ethical. Only 29 percent believe that Vice President Dick Cheney is. And more than a quarter of Republicans, 26 percent, believe the vice president is not honest and ethical. The growing credibility gap could have ramifications across the president's agenda: 56 percent of Americans say Bush "won't be able to get much done;" only 36 percent say he "can be effective."
Count Army major Tammy Duckworth as one of the most interesting potential DCCC recruits, in IL 06 -- Henry Hyde's old district. (See today's House Race Hotline) Duckworth, a triple amputee, sustained critical injuries as a Black Hawk pilot in the war in Iraq. She has been coy about her intentions, and her policy views are not publicly known. Dems shouldn't make the mistake of assuming the messenger trumps the message, but if she runs on a centrist/pro-business economic platform without being reflexively anti-war -- this has the potential to be an interesting candidacy. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Every Friday, the Hotline lists the weekend travel of potential 2008 presidential candidates. And we regularly update our WH '08 Tracking documents (See here, for Democrats, and here for Republicans) so you can keep tabs on your favorite -- or your potential opponent. Coming soon: details of every major trip taken in 2005 by every potential candidate.
Continue reading "Weekend Calendar" »
Is Bill Richardson really telling fundraisers that he's running for President?
"For the record, the governor is focused on his reelection and after that we'll see," says Billy Sparks, his chief spokesman. "This is a time for rumors. The governor stands behind his comments to Chuck Todd."
What he told Todd: "I want to be a great governor of New Mexico. And I think we've done a lot of good things. I'm running for re-election. I'm also chair of the Democratic Governors. And I'm trying to do as much as I can to spread the word that if there's going to be major reform in the Democratic Party, the Democratic governors need to take the lead because the best social and policy experiments are happening at the state level. Then after my re-election I'm going to take a look."
Today's Hotline Overlooked:
This is the 5th straight time that the same party has won the GOV races in VA and NJ:
-- 2005: Corzine/Kaine (D)
-- 2001: McGreevey/Warner (D)
-- 1997: Whitman/Gilmore (R)
-- 1993: Whitman/Allen (R)
-- 1989: Florio/Wilder (D)
Several readers have added: "And the fifth straight time the winners have been the opposite party of the Pres. in power."
DLC founder Al From has posted his conception of the way forward for Dems. His basic idea: Dems are not the majority party, so they must persuade (not just mobilize), must respect swing voters and base voters alike, and must change, in some fundamental ways.
The presentation includes slides such as "Reasons for Optimism," "Democrats Can't Reply on GOP Failures to Bail Us Out," "The Problem: Too Much Red," "Nothing is Automatic,
"Expand the Map" and a look into how the numbers stack up re: gender,
race, and the cultural middle class, among other demographic areas.
It's available on the DLC's website.
From's speech yesterday about Clintonism at a Clinton conference in NY is worth reading too, as it is sure to prompt debate in the Dem world.
An excerpt: "Clinton's New Democrat philosophy is the modernization of liberalism. It is a modern day formula for activist government: progressive policies that create opportunity for all, not just an entitled few; mainstream values like work, family, responsibility, and community; and practical, non-bureaucratic solutions to governing. It reconnects the Democratic Party with the its first principles and grandest traditions by offering new and innovative ways to further them."
Ken Strasma writes: "Thanks to the folks who pointed out that the VA election results by county map makes it look like the Republicans did better than they actually did because of their strength in sparsely populated rural counties. We now have a cartographic map that shows VA with the size of each county adjusted to reflect the total votes cast.
According to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, this is the first time since '94 when the majority (51%) of respondents think it is time to give a new person a chance in Congress as opposed to re-electing their rep. (37%). Could we be facing another Congressional changing of the guard as we saw in '94? If this number sustains, Dems are facing a rare opportunity. The question is, will they take it? {AOIFE MCCARTHY]
Sunday's C-SPAN's Road to the White House hosts Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) at a Manchester, NH, rally for Mayor Bob Baines.
Who, of course, was defeated on 11/8.
We are trying to limit the VA-centricness, but with so much political news being made in the once and future (?) "Mother of Presidents", it is difficult to avoid.
The latest juicy tidbit from the Commonwealth is right there in yesterday's Bob Novak column, but you just have to look for it. Give it a read and tell us what name jumps out as a "blast from the past." [JONATHAN MARTIN]
Continue reading "Comeback Tour For Gilmore?" »
In anticipation of a vacancy in the House Democratic leadership should Bob Menendez be elevated to the Senate, Rep. John Larson (D-CT) planned a noon fundraiser in Hartford on Monday featuring Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Ducats are a $1,000 per. With Tuesday's result in NJ, pressure builds on Larson to move a lot of tickets. His chief of staff in Hartford, Elliot Ginsburg, has been burning up the cellphone minutes trying to convince local lobbyists that's its in their interest to support Larson's bid for leadership. [A HOTLINE CORRESPONDENT]
John Mercurio points out that Sen. Joe Biden is still being a wee bit coy, since all he actually says in his letter is "I'm running," which technically could mean he's running for re-election.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll asks voters who they would definitely not vote for in the '08 WH primary. Al Gore topped the list among Dems with 17%, followed closely by John Kerry (14%) and Sen. Hillary Clinton (13%). Among GOPers, Newt Gingrich came in with 21%, followed by John McCain with 19% and Rudy Giuliani with 8% (release). Coincidently, on the GOP side, the same three candidates were listed as the top choice for the GOP nominee, just in the opposite order. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]
The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza obtained a fundraising letter sent out by Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), in which he declares, point blank, that he's "running" for president.
Democratic fundraisers say Biden has been forthcoming with them in private, saying that he is almost certain to run if he can raise enough money by early 2007 through his PAC. Someone who has spoken with Biden about it says "he is definitely running."
Biden has a solid donor base in the Jewish community because of his foreign relations post, a network of trial lawyers because of his perch on the judiciary, and he's very close with major donors in Philadelphia and New Jersey.
Why is Biden so aggresive? And why did someone give the Post a fundraising letter?
One theory: to blunt Warner-iana. The VA Gov has the luxury of ginning up for an '08 race as early as January, far before many others.
Another theory: Dems who want to run in '08 have to raise more money early on to blunt the expected Clinton fundraising juggernaut. Expect virtually every major candidate to blow public financing caps.
The result for now is that many potential candidates like Biden will be more forthcoming about their plans in public. NM Gov. Bill Richardson, for example, told one of us (in an interview for C-SPAN's Booknotes) that he won't pledge to serve a second full term if re-elected. Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) is whipping up a storm on the fundraising circuit and drops deliberate hints in public.
The only candidate who doesn't have to say she is running is, of course, the one who is ironically spurring the early activity: Sen. Clinton. [MARC AMBINDER and CHUCK TODD]
Sure, Pat Robertson is influential in Virginia Beach, VA and environs, and his 700 Club, which is a well-produced news and lifstyle broadcast, garners a million or more viewers a day. But is he really "one of the nation's most influential" televangelists, as ABC News suggested tonight?
Politically, we think these folks are more interesting and more widely respected by evangelicals: Pastor Rod Parsley, Rev. T.D. Jakes, the NAE's Rev. Ted Haggard (not a televangelist, per se), Pastor Rick Warren, James Kennedy, Trinity Broadcasting's Paul Crouch, the Graham family, Campus Crusade's Bill Bright, John Hagee and others.
The same question we'd ask of Jerry Falwell. Why does he get booked on, say, MSNBC so frequently? Because he's a good quote and controversial? Or because a mass of people actually listen to him? [MARC AMBINDER]
Update: Whoops. Bill Bright is no longer alive.
1. ANWR scuttled from rec. bill in House.
2. Grassley can't get Snowe on board, so no cap gains tax cut. (GOPers pray for conference...)
3. Entire budget reconcilliation bill is postponed in House. (We're told that the leadership needed a few more hours to get it done, and the Veterans' Day holiday is tomorrow.)
4. Specter asks Alito to explain Vanguard. (Update: an e-mailer points out, correctly, that Specter says he was satisfied by Alito's answers during their private meeting.) But -- but -- the point is -- tomorrow's headlines in re: Alito will be about Vanguard.
Something tells us tomorrow's headlines won't be pretty...
Supporters of Sen. Evan Bayh's All America PAC received an e-mail this afternoon containing a tidbit of news.
"The end of the year brings changes as well. Steve Bouchard, our executive director, will be leaving us in December to explore other opportunities. Steve has given the PAC a great start. I am extremely grateful for the numerous contributions he has made to our cause. Under his leadership, the All America PAC has been transformed into one of the leading fundraising, organizing and candidate support organizations in the country. While Steve may no longer be the PAC's executive director next year, I know that our friendship and my admiration of him will continue. I hope we will have the opportunity to work together in the very near future. I wish him the very best in his future endeavors."
We've called Bouchard and will let you know what we find out...
RedState's Mike Krempasky, and Kos's Kos sent a letter this morning to House members urging them to reject the Shays/Meehan bill on the internet and campaign finance.
Rep. Marty Meehan and Rep. Christoher Shays responded this afternoon in a Dear Colleague letter, the full text of which is below:
Continue reading "Shays/Meehan Respond..." »
An interesting press release:
U.S. House Education and the Workforce Committee Chairman John Boehner (R-OH) and senior Democrat George Miller (D-CA) today sent a letter to U.S. Capitol Police Chief Terrance Gainer asking him to conduct a thorough investigation of a potential criminal incident involving confidential pension plan information on hundreds of major U.S. companies.
Continue reading "Huh?" »
The
Hotline has updated its TV tracking time of WH candidates. The airtime now goes up to 11/8. With
McCain and
Richardson on book tour, their TV times have skyrocketed, particularly McCain, who is now well ahead of the pack. Richardson moved up in the charts but hasn't cracked the top five. An interesting note, McCain is getting broadcast interviews along with his cable ones while Richardson has only appeared on cable this month.
Daschle debuts on the list and
Gingrich made enough appearances to keep his second place slot. People we haven't seen in awhile:
Clinton, Pataki, Sanford and
Giuliani (who has dropped to last place). [
EMILY GOODIN]
Continue reading "WH 08 TV Tracking" »
...that a potential GOP candidate won an award for his governing prowess this week?
The news was lost in the '05 election shuffle, but it's a sign of what Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) is chewing on as he considers a presidential run.
Huckabee, the second longest serving governor in the country, was honored by Governing Magazine as a "public official of the year."
Says an adviser: "Good government. Fiscal responsibility. Commonsense conservative governance. All recognized by objective third party."
Today, Huckabee extended the conversation. Speaking to the nation's Medicaid directors in his role as Nat'l Gov. Assoc. chair, Huckabee called for an overhaul and urged Congress to pass what is now HR 4241, a package of reforms agreed to by NGA members.
Medicaid costs in AR exceed $3B, Huckabee said, and the program pays for more than three quarters of all nursing home patients and half of all births. [MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "Did you know..." »
Keep an eye out for attorney Peter Duffy as the Dems likely nominee against Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH 01) now that Manchester mayor Bob Baines is likely out as a candidate. An anti-war lawyer with military credentials -- he was called up to the Army National Guard in '04 -- Duffy said his campaign is "full speed ahead" after Baines suffered a shocking defeat in the Manchester mayor's race. Bradley has won by significant margins in his two previous election bids but has been aided by weak opposition. His district only went for Bush by three points in '04, and he recently was one of very few GOPers who returned money from DeLay's PAC. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Fresh off a wave of national adulation, VA Gov Mark Warner will try to burnish his national political reputation. (Worry not, Virginians: he'll put y'all first, his advisers are quick to say.)
He kicks off his national travels with a finance event in New York on November 16. Then he's on to Boston on November 17, followed by a day of events in New Hampshire on Nov. 18.
Warner's Forward Together PAC event holds its coming out event on December 6th in Northern Virginia.
And Warner has agreed to attend the Florida Democratic Party's state convention in Orlando from on Dec. 11 and 12. [MARC AMBINDER]
More, from Wednesday's
Hotline. We asked several dozen top GOP and Dem strategists to tell us what surprised them about the 2005 elections.
Continue reading "Lessons Learned: The Surprises" »
has moved to Fredericksburg.
And good data and analysis therein comes today from our friend, the Washington Post's Roz Helderman, who spent weeks before the election interviewing Loudoun county voters.
For those of you who thought the '05 elections were over and hoping that we would stop yakking about VA, your wishes will have to wait another day...at least.
With all but 3 of VA's 2,426 precincts reporting, state Del. Bob McDonnell (R) leads state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) by less than 2K votes (out of nearly 2M cast) according to a late-afternoon check of the VA Bd Of Elections website.
By law, elections in VA with margins of under 1% automatically spur recounts. And Deeds announced at an a.m. presser that he was lining up both transition and recount teams to go forward. Predicting that the re-tally would take weeks, the lawyer/legislator said that, for now, he was heading back to his western VA home because he had "clients I need to see, cows that have to be fed and kids I need to hold."
McDonnell also held a 11/9 presser in Richmond where he, too, announced both a recount and a transition team after claiming victory. Interestingly enough, McDonnell and Deeds will be represented by the same lawyers who, respectively, represented ex-AG/ex-GOV nominee Marshall Coleman (R) and Wilder the last time VA had a recount in a statewide race -- '89 GOV. [JONATHAN MARTIN]
That two of the nation's most important political bloggers -- Dem. Markos Moulitsas Zuniga (The Daily Kos) and GOPer Mike Krempasky (RedState) will send a joint letter to members of Congress tomorrow urging them to oppose the ""Internet Anti-Corruption and Free Speech Protection Act of 2005" sponsored by Rep. Marty Meehan (D) and Rep. Chris Shays (R).
From the letter: "It does not in fact offer adequate protections for speech and political activity online....It would stifle technological innovation and would not adequately protect Internet activity which is not 'blogging'...." [MARC AMBINDER]
At breakfast together this morning in DC: top leader leaders and the Democratic Leadership Council's Al From.
The man who put it together: DLCer/IA Gov. Tom Vilsack.
In attendence were IAFF President Harold Schaitberger and SEIU President Andy Stern, as well as pol. dirs from several other unions.
Labor officials and DLCers are generally at daggers drawn over trade (NAFTA, CAFTA) and over the nature and future of the American economy.
But Stern (who regularly meets with GOPers on Capitol Hill) and Schaitberger (whose Kerry-endorsing union has centrist members and maintains good relations with the GOP leadership)are not your average labor leaders.
The conversation this morning was cordial and frank, according to participants. The labor leaders made clear they did not appreciate the DLC's touting of those Dems who voted in favor of CAFTA. The DLCers defended their economic principles. Attendees hope for more meetings in the future.
"The table is set for us to come together on an ongoing basis," Schaitberger tells The Hotline.
Vilsack spent almost three hours on 11/8 with the remnants of the labor/America Votes coalition and labor pol. operatives, part of a series of dinners put together by ex-AFL-CIO pol. dir/ex-ACT CEO Steve Rosenthal.
Big-name participants included consultant Mike Lux, ex-America Votes Pres. Cecile Richards , AFL-CIO Pol. Dir. Karen Ackerman, EMILY's List's Ellen Malcolm, Anna Burger of SEIU and Change to Win, ATLA's Linda Lipsen, League of Conservative Voters' Deb Callahan, the NEA's John Stocks, MoveOn's Tom Mattzie and Human Rights Campaign's Joe Solomnese.
Said one attendee: "Tom Vilsack brings good credentials and sincerity in problem solving which our country needs."
Another: "I don't think he's fleshed things out overall but he has a solid foundation and is comfortable with himself."
The same group plans dinners with other potential '08 candidates. It's already dined with VA Gov. Mark Warner.[MARC AMBINDER]
The
Hotline surveyed several dozen D and R pol. strategists and consultants last night and today to collect a list of lessons learned -- and lessons these folks hope their party didn't learn -- from '06. You'll have to be a subscriber for the full version, but below the jump you'll find a sampling.
Continue reading "From Today's Hotline: Lessons Not Learned" »
An AP/Ipsos poll released this afternoon shows a whopping 45% of NJ voters (that is those who actually cast a vote in for Gov.) "strongly disapprove" of the way Bush is handling his job as Pres. Hs total disapproval is 59%, leaving only 35% approval. 45% of poll respondents stated they voted for Bush in '04, 47% for Kerry.
Meanwhile, just a bridge or two away...
A Pace Univ. exit poll of NYC voters shows 44% "strongly approve" of the way Bloomberg is handling his job as mayor; 76% approval overall with just 20% disapproving. [Aoife McCarthy]
It might not mean much, but it's worth noting, with a couple caveats, that of all putative '08 presidentials, only VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) helped bring a big winner home on Tuesday.
In VA, Sen. George Allen (R) campaigned for GOP gov nominee Jerry Kilgore, who lost. Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) made ads for NJ GOP Gov nominee Doug Forrester, who fell short. AZ Sen. John McCain (R) traveled to nearby CA and made ads for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's initiatives, all of which went down in defeat. NY Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) campaigned for NYC Dem mayoral candidate Freddie Ferrer, who was trounced by GOP Mayor Mike Bloomberg.
Warner, of course, made ads and campaigned frequently in VA with Dem gov nominee Tim Kaine, who won.
(Bill Clinton made ads for Sen. Jon Corzine, who won.)
Obvious caveat #1: Warner had a much easier time selling Kaine than, say, Hillary Clinton did in NYC or McCain in CA. Obvious caveat #2: Several '08ers campaigned for, and against, Manchester NH Mayor Bob Baines (D), who narrowly lost to GOPer Frank Guinta. Still, there's no doubt that Warner comes out of the '05 elections with the strongest bump and buzz. [JOHN MERCURIO]
Three interesting items we meant to post last night about Kaine's acceptance speech. First was the front-and-center presence on stage of the inimitable ex-Gov/Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder. He did not speak, but the canny and calculating Wilder was lauded by both Kaine and Warner in their remarks. This is remarkable (and perhaps a testament to Wilder's staying power) given that a) he endorsed Kaine less than a week before election day b) he did NOT endorse Kaine's other two ticketmates and c) he blasted Warner for the '04 tax increases in a letter that he ran in full as an Op-Ed in Sunday's Richmond Times-Dispatch. [JONATHAN MARTIN]
Continue reading "Other Dems Who "Won" In VA" »
Democratic targeting consultant Ken Strasma's analysis of last night's VA Gov results has much to recommend.
Here's a nifty map of the results:
More of Strasma's analysis follows the break.
Continue reading "Ken Strasma's Map" »
Folks in VA reported getting numerous GOTV calls from an outfit that labeled itself "the Media Fund." They didn't know what to make of them or whether they were connected to Erik Smith's Media Fund 527 of 2004 vintage.
The answer: yes.
Says a source: "TMF has been conducting a persuasion project in VA that includes mail, phones and field activities."
Kaine, Corzine Win
KAINE KILGORE %IN CORZINE FORRESTER %IN
52% 46% 100% 53% 44% 97%
LIVE VA RESULTSLIVE NJ RESULTSLIVE OH RESULTSLIVE CA RESULTS
CA
prop results as expected. But Prop 75 -- union dues -- is shaving hairs off 50 percent.
Shouts of "'08" greet
Warner at Kaine victory party; Kaine tells his boss: "I look forward to standing next to you at your next victory party."....
VA AG: McDonnell (R) 50.00% Deeds (D) 49.92 (99% in)....recount probable....
VA LG:
Bolling (R) 50.7% Byrne (D) 49.1% (98% in)....
VA House of
delegates:
Dems gain....
NYC Mayor:
Bloomberg skates....
St. Paul: Pro-Bush Dem Kelly
trounced by Dem
Coleman....
In
Detroit's mayoral race,
Kilpatrick hangs on...
In
SD,
Sanders defeats Frye by 22K....
In
NH:
Guinta (R) defeats Baines (D) for Manchester mayor....
Gay marriage ban
passes in
TX; veto of 'gay rights'
fails in
ME....
OH redistricting measure
fails....
Suozzi defeats Peterson in
Nassau Co., NY....
(Some of) the winners behind the winners tonight include....
Continue reading "UPDATED: Winners and..." »
RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman's comments, per a release:
"Jerry Kilgore ran a tough, focused campaign for Governor of Virginia. Going into the election, Republicans understood that the Commonwealth had a popular Democrat Governor with high approval numbers. Although it was a difficult road, Jerry's team communicated his principled message and got more people involved in the political process. Jerry and Marty have served the people of Virginia well and Republicans are proud of the campaign they waged in The Old Dominion."
Continue reading "GOP Spin..." »
Courtesy of Hotliner Jonathan Martin, who provided most of the exclusive precinct-level analysis tonight.
If the story behind Warner's victory in '01 was his inroads with
so-called NASCAR voters in rural VA, the story behind Kaine's victory in '05 may be found in subdivision, not the holler.
Take a quick look at the Kaine-Kilgore breakdown by CD. In VA's most
suburban CD's -- Tidewater's 2nd District and NOVA's 8th, 10th and 11th District -- Kaine won. And keep in mind that 3 of these 4 CDs are represented by GOPers in Congress.
----
To his credit, Sen. George Allen -- who barnstormed throughout VA with Kilgore in recent days -- is literally and figuratively still standing squarely behind his political protege.
He spoke just before Kilgore made his concession speech and remained directly behind the ex-AG on the stage in Richmond along with his wife, Susan, as Kilgore conceded defeat.
----
We've talked a lot about Fairfax Co, but also sticking out in the VA GOV results is the Commonwealth's biggest locality -- VA Beach. Heavily populated by both active duty and retired military personnel, VA Beach is a GOP powerhouse. They are represented in Congress and in the state legislature by GOPers across the board. Earley -- who hailed from nearby Chesapeake -- won the city with 7%. Bush crushed Kerry there last year by almost 20%. With all but one of its 86 precincts reporting, Kaine is leading Kilgore by under 1K votes in VA Beach.
While Kaine moves up the hill from the LG's office to the executive mansion, the LG and AG races remain up in the air. With just over 90% of VA's precincts now reporting, state Sen. Bill Bolling (R) has a lead of just under 2% points over ex-Rep./ex-state Sen. Leslie Byrne (D). And the AG race is even tighter. State Del. Bob McDonnell (R) leads state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) by under 10K votes -- with over 1.7M votes cast!
Bolling's camp tells The Hotline that they are optimistic that the lead will hold, but said they were "still counting" as of 9:45.
One important note on these two downballot races: exurban Loudoun Co. is NOT reporting any returns for LG and AG. In other words, there are almost 50K votes missing in this one Co. that could make or break these races.
Corzine isn't ready to make any speeches, his spokesperson tells On Call. But things look good. On WCBS-TV, p8ndits are already talking about the race for the Senate seat.
Looking at some county results: In the bellwether of Bergen, Corzine has a comfortable 12 point lead with 87% of the precincts reporting. The only county to be in with 100% is Sussex (which has the smallest share of the statewide vote), where Forrester only slightly gained on Bret Schundler’s showing in '01 with Corzine matching McGreevey's vote count in the GOP-leaning county.
There will be plenty of Monday-morning QB'ing of VA GOV, but one of the lessons for the GOP has to be that regardless of your margins and turnout downstate, you have to at least be competitive in Fairfax Co. to win statewide.
With all but 5 of Fairfax Co's 228 precincts reporting, Kilgore is holding steady at 38% to Kaine's 60%. Kaine's margin in Fairfax will surely be the highest any GOV candidate has registered in the county in modern VA political history.
DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel is the first nat'l Dem we've heard from tonight. His basic spin on VA GOV: a straight-forward Dem message of health care, education etc. beat a straight-forward GOP message of tax cuts, death penalty and immigration. "In a red state, a Democratic message beat a Republican message." And while Emanuel didn't say it, his implication was that Kaine's no Warner, meaning Warner won in '01 by trying to deliver a Republican-lite message. But that wasn't the Kaine message; he delivered a much more conventional Dem message.
Emanuel also claimed that both the NJ and VA victories are part of a pattern that started with the OH 02 special. The pattern: Democratic voters are simply more motivated than the GOP right now.
"Texas voters Tuesday overwhelmingly approved a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, making their state the 19th to take that step. In Maine, however, a proposal to repeal a new gay-rights law was trailing in early returns."
With 15% of the votes tallied thus far, Ohio Issue 4, which would have transferred redistricting power from the legislature to an independent commission, is losing 66.4% to 33.6%. If the measure -- which was supported heavily by California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger -- fails, it could be a death sentence for California Proposition 77, a similarly-worded ballot question.
Prop 77 was polling behind, just outside the margin of error, according to a Polimetrix poll released today.
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) -- Democrat Tim Kaine was elected governor Tuesday, defeating Republican Jerry Kilgore in the most expensive election in Virginia history.
With 82 percent of the vote reported, the lieutenant governor had 51 percent of the vote to 47 percent for Kilgore, a former attorney general. Independent Russ Potts had 2 percent.
Races for lieutenant governor and attorney general were too close to call.
Back to the Manchester, NH, upset. Mayor Bob Baines' loss isn't just a blow to all those WH '08 Dems who stumped for him, it's potentially a devastating blow to the DCCC's recruiting efforts in NH 01. PoliticsNH's ace reporter James Pindell reminds us: "Baines was the DCCC target for NH 01 against Jeb Bradley. And as of this weekend Baines was preparing a congressional run." Pindell notes, however, that publicly Baines wasn't telling voters of his future ambitions. He simply told them he still wanted to be mayor.
Some of our first real numbers from some of NOVA's much-discussed exurbs.
Stafford Co, just north of Fredericksburg and due south on I-95 35 miles from DC, is going to Kilgore 54%-43% with all but two of their 25 precincts reporting. Again, though, his margin is well below where Bush was last year against Kerry and surely under his turnout model. Bush won Stafford 62%-37%.
With the posts coming fast and furious, here are some quick updates that are simply too good to post just once:
First, Manchester, NH, Mayor Bob Baines, who campaigned in recent weeks with Sens. John Kerry, Evan Bayh and Joe Biden and also received campaign help from Sen. Russ Feingold appears to have been upset by City Councilmember Frank Guinta (R). Guinta was aided by potential WH '08ers as well, including NY Gov. George Pataki and AR Gov. Mike Huckabee. Dems may find a loss in what was supposed to be a banner year for their party surprisingly frightening.
Second, ex-AG Jerry Kilgore is receiving bad omens. LG Tim Kaine is outperforming Gov. Mark Warner's 2001 numbers in Roanoke County, Fairfax County and the Richmond suburbs.
That the GOP "lost" the governor's race.
Davis: "It's a pretty big hole for Jerry to make up."
(On NewsChannel 8 here in DC)
Kaine is leading 60%-38% with 82% of precincts reporting in Fairfax Co., where 1 in 7 VA voters resides.
Another bad sign for Kilgore. With ALL precincts reporting, Richmond suburb and core GOP locality Chesterfield Co. has Kilgore winning 54%-45%. Earley won there in '01 57%-42% while losing statewide by 5%.
Corzine is winning the bellwether Bergen County with 57% of the vote and 13.5% precincts reporting in that county
WABC-TV: "Will Bloomberg Win a Decisive Victory In New York City?"
WNBC.com: "In NYC, Bloomberg Poised To Claim Second Term"
AP reports: "Mayor Michael Bloomberg ... was poised to capture a second term in dominating fashion."
With 91% of precincts reporting, suburban Roanoke Co. in SW VA (the bedroom community around the city of Roanoke) is going to Kilgore, 53%-45%. Problem is that this is not where Kilgore needs to have his margin in such a GOP stronghold. Bush won the same locality 66%-33%.
With just over 60% of precincts reporting, Kaine is leading Kilgore 61%-37% in NOVA's biggest locality -- Fairfax Co.
And one look "inside the numbers" tells the story. At a swing, suburban precinct, "Sideburn," just a few paces from George Mason Univ. that went for ex-AG Mark Earley over Gov. Mark Warner 927-793 in '01, Kaine has won -- 836 - 770. Earley lost Fairfax Co. by 9%.
An "F.O.H." (Friend of Hotline) who resides in NoVA sends in the following note: "I thought it was finally safe to answer the phone again after polls closed (the calls/door-to-door visits have been NONSTOP!) but got a robo-call after 7pm from the media fund project; exit-poll style; three questions: did you vote, who did you vote for in the governor's race, gender." Anyone know more about this "media fund project"?
Forrester campaign dir. Sherry Sylvester just told NJN: "We continue to get very good news on turnout." She says that they're hitting they're targets in GOP areas, and that turnout in Dems counties like Essex, Hudson and Camden Co. is low.
The Forrester camp's Steve O'Halloran tells On Call that they're "excited and optimistic and confident."
NJN reports turnout is "light to moderate." The mood at Corzine HQ "appears to be ... somewhat subdued, maybe some nerves." But state Dem chair Bonnie Watson Coleman is sounding a positive note. They're streaming their broadcast online, and we'll keep tuned so you don't have to.
Bad news for Kilgore. Two Richmond precincts that went to Bush in '04 -- one in the affluent western part of the city and one in the more middle-class south side -- are delivering their votes for their former mayor, Kaine. The first went to Bush 779-540 last year and this year has gone to Kaine 559-403. The second went to Bush 1152-1028 and this year has gone to Kaine 1015-728.
This Is Jersey ...
Dems have already gone to court, securing an injunction to prevent poll "challengers" from challenging votes on the basis of signatures. Corzine camp spokesperson Ivette Mendez also says that in Hudson Co., GOP canvassers have left the building and won't count absentee votes until tomorrow. Mendez: "We've been having some problems with voter suppression ... We're not surprised, we've been expecting these kinds of tactics." The Corzine camp has invested a lot in encouraging voters to cast their ballot by mail. This is the first election in NJ where voters don't need to have a reason to vote absentee.
Otherwise, Mendez says the camp is happy with turnout so far. But as polls are set to close, they're not making predictions yet.
Manchester, NH, has a new mayor. Frank Guinta defeated three-term mayor Bob Baines, according to a breaking news email alert from PoliticsNH.com. In the last week, WH '08 hopefuls John Kerry and Joe Biden both campaign for Baines. Not exactly the midas touch...
Update: Russ Feingold's PAC paid for a Baines staffer. Hotline subscribers can see our story about that here.
Update II: Evan Bayh campaigned door-to-door with Baines on 10/30. Hotliners can see that story here. Anyone else beginning to wonder if Baines nationalized the race just a bit too much? Anyone know of any WH '08 GOPers who helped Guinta?
Update III: The New Hampshire Union Leader is calling Guinta's victory an "upset."
Beyond Fairfax, other good bellwethers for VA watchers to keep an eye on are the SW VA counties of Dickenson and Buchanan. Both are culturally conservative, but still very strongly Dem-leaning because of both labor (United Mine Workers) and ancestral loyalties. Kerry won both in '04, while losing the rest of the state by 9 points and ex-Sen. Chuck Robb carried both handily while losing to Sen. George Allen by 4 points statewide in '00. However, Kilgore hails from this part of SW VA and he romped in both counties in his AG race in '01. The results from these coal counties will indicate whether a key region of the state is sticking with their own or staying true to their Dem heritage.
With 140 of 2,395 precincts in so far for the VA GOV, LG and AG races. Kilgore seems to be running a good 10 points behind his running mates down-ticket in GOP-leaning precincts.
Topic A in the Garden State is whether indie voters break heavily enough for Forrester to erase Corzine's long-standing lead in the polls. Topic B is, of course, who might a Gov. Corzine appoint to replace him in the Senate. We'll be keeping an eye on that tonight as well. Here are a couple nuggets to get you started:
1. Rep. Bob Menendez might have the honor of first talking head on air -- he just was interviewed on NJN.
2. Our friends at PoliticsNJ.com are hearing that there are delays in Somerset Co. because people are "asking how to use the Personal Choice keys to spell Codey." But fear not, Dems -- Somerset should be Forrester Country.
Kaine's campaign says they're outperforming Warner in the outer DC suburbs. Warner ran behind, and now the Kaine campaign is projecting they've pulled even.
After spending three hours talking to approximately 50 voters at five bellwether precincts in what has traditionally been VA's bellwether county, The Hotline is projecting that by a wide margin....
Continue reading "Hotline On Scene: Fairfax Co." »
Forrester campaign dir. Sherry Sylvester is brimming with confidence, based on an email exchange I just had with her: "Doug campaigned down to the wire, shaking hands at the Princeton Junction train station -- No exit polls but even Democrats are reporting turn out is light in Hudson, Camden and Newark -- absentee ballots are 50/50 in Camden -- a South Jersey Democrat strong hold and home to party boss George Norcross who has been a focus for Doug throughout this campaign of everything that is wrong with New Jersey. Republican strongholds are coming in solid -- and there hasn’t been the usual busing in of out of staters so far in places like Atlantic City or Hoboken." [CHUCK TODD]
As we get geared up for our NJ coverage, we thought we'd first try to get a sense of what info might indicate how the election is turning. We asked some NJ observers -- David Rebovich, the Rider Univ. prof who's quoted in seemingly every MSM story on NJ politics; Steve Kornacki, reporter for PoliticsNJ.com, which is as good at covering its beat as any source out there; Tom O'Neil, a veteran NJ Dem operative, and Bill Pascoe, who ran Doug Forrester's '02 SEN campaign, as well as Bret Schundler's '05 primary bid. Here's their top 3 clues:
Continue reading "NJ: An Overview" »
This invitation is making the rounds of NH Democrats today... a sign that Gov. Warner is pretty damned confident in LG Kaine.
New Hampshire Senate Democratic Caucus
Invite you as our guest to join
Gov. Mark Warner
of Virginia
****
for lunch and conversation at
The Puritan Conference Center
R45 Hooksett Road, Manchester, NH
Friday, November 18, 2005
12:00 pm
See "grain" caveat below.
A source close to Kilgore's campaign says they are seeing "unprecedented off-year turnout" in the heavily GOP precincts in the suburban counties around Richmond.
They are reporting turnout nearing presidential levels at precincts that produced 70-30 margins for Pres. Bush in '04.
Kaine's camp responds: They say they are "seeing the exact opposite: great numbers in the city [of Richmond], subpar in GOP precincts." They also say they are "seeing huge turnout inside the beltway," referring to heavily Democrat localities of Arlington and Alexandria.
And: "Sources inside the Kaine campaign are sending mixed messages about turnout. A spokesperson in Richmond says the campaign is pleased with turnout throughout the state, including heavy Democratic turnout in NoVa. Meanwhile, a field organizer in NoVa expressed concern that turnout in Fairfax County, which Mark Warner won 55-45 in 2001, was low."
In CA, there's no better MSM blogger than Dan Weintraub and he's identified the one county in the state that's the best predictor of statewide elections: San Benito.
Take this with a grain of chad:
Two sources who have access to the 4:00 pm data update provided by the Democratic coordinated campaign in Viginia say that turnout in African American precincts around Richmond, Roanoke and Charlotesville are higher than projections. That's good news, if true, for Dems, who worried about the coordinated campaign's African American GOTV program.
Dems are also seeing higher than projected turnout in white NoVA precincts.
GOP data provided to us by Republicans suggests the opposite -- that white voters are not turning out in sufficient enough numbers in NoVA to pad Kaine's totals. GOP data also suggests that their targets in the Richmond suburbs are turning out in higher than expected numbers.
With an hour left to go before polls close in Virginia and two hours left until New Jersey's done voting, everyone in the blogosphere is antsy to get early indicators of how each race is shaping up. Technorati, the blogosphere's omnipotent search engine which monitors keyword searches of blogs, reports that "exit poll" is the sixth-most popular search term in the past hour.
Continue reading "There Are No Exit Polls!!!!!!" »
A reader writes: "I got calls from Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) and Rudy Guiliani over the weekend. Yesterday when I got home from work, I had calls from Davis, Allen, Bush and the candidate for delegate--chris gregerson. It was overkill, I've got to say."
The National Review's John Miller says he's gotten three GOTV calls from Kilgore's campaign today.
PoliticsNJ's Steve Kornacki has encouraging anecdotes for Republicans. "Been hearing today from some Republicans that turnout seems particularly high in some GOP-friendly Monmouth County towns. One Republican said turnout in Colt's Neck is outpacing last year's presidential race. This probably has to do with state legislative politics -- Colt's Neck is in the ultracompetitive 12th District, and Monmouth has two others competitive districts as well."
The Washington Post's reporters have color from voters in NoVA.
CA election law prof. Rick Hasen posts:
"Those who think we made enough improvements in election administration should think again. In California, Gov. Schwarzenegger had to cast a provisional ballot. A report from Virginia says that some voters are having trouble casting their votes for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate. More problems in Ohio."
Hasen later corrects: "UPDATE: Apparently the California governor was allowed to cast a regular ballot. The story was not clear to me on this point. It is very troubling, however."
We don't know whether Democrats or Republicans are turning out in greater proportions.
We don't know whether GOPers and Dems are meeting their turnout targets. (GOP strategists whisper to us that Dems aren't meeting theirs; Dems say that Republican precincts are doing poorly.)
We don't know how quickly the vote will be canvassed.
We DO know that there've been only sporadic problems with voting machines and incompetent poll workers.
We do know that whoever wins in Virginia will receive several hundred thousand fewer votes than John Kerry did in losing the state in the genereal election of 2004. (That's an off-off year for ya.)
From
today's Hotline:
The following lists consultants working on major statewide races today. E-mail additions to
your editor.
Continue reading "Consultant Scorecard: Who's At Bat Today" »
Who's doing them?
For the Democratic coordinated campaign, ex-VP Al Gore, ex-POTUS Bill Clinton and Gov. Mark Warner recorded GOTV messages.
For the Republicans, Sen. George Allen, ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani and President Bush.
A reader e-mails: "Mary Clancy of the Republican Governor's Association called me, twice. At least that's who the Commonwealth of Virginia says is the SOLE source of funds for the Honest Leadership for Virginia PAC, who claims to have paid for and authorized the calls. "
If you've lived in VA, who called you?
Here are some under the radar storylines to follow:
-- VA Dem leadership vacuum: Whether Kaine wins or loses, trying to figure out "who's got next" in the '09 GOV race is tricky. Should Kaine end up leading a sweep, look out for an uncomfortable working relationship between the new Gov. and a Lt. Gov. Leslie Byrne. Byrne is not a favorite in some VA Dem circles and the pragmatists in the party are going to be attempting to figure out how to keep her from having '09 GOV ambitions. Boxing Byrne out becomes trickier for Dems if she wins and AG candidate Creigh Deeds loses. The VA Dem dream scenario is that Mark Warner comes out of "retirement" for '09. [CHUCK TODD]
More after the jump
Continue reading "Under The Radar Post-Mortem Preview" »
This just in, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announces he'll meet with SCOTUS nominee Samuel Alito on Wednesday at 11 a.m. in his Hart Senate offices. (Photo-op scheduled prior to the meeting).
Internal campaign polls for ex-VA AG Jerry Kilgore show the race at a dead heat. And Dem. LG Tim Kaine's internals have him up by four. So that got us looking into Virginia's recount law, for it may be a long, long night.
If the margin separating victor from loser is less than one percent, the trailing candidate can request a recount provided he'll pay for it. If the margin of victory turns out to be less than one half of one percent, cities, towns and counties bear the cost.
Virginia last saw a gubernatorial recount in 1989, when Dem. Doug Wilder barely defeated Republican Marshall Coleman.
BTW: Provisional ballots in VA are accepted if voters show up at the right precinct without proper ID. If they're at the wrong precinct and they decided to fill out a provisional, it won't be counted. [MARC AMBINDER]
If VA LG Tim Kaine (D) really leads in the polls heading into tomorrow, the cautious optimism that many Democrats in the state feel is tempered somewhat by the knowledge that on election day they will combat an extension of a ruthlessly efficient (and fabled) Republican National Committee GOTV operation called the 72 Hour Task Force.
Mike DuHaime, the RNC's political director, has devoted most of his past several months tweaking the program in Virginia, and the RNC says Tuesday's effort builds on lessons learned from the successful, herculean general election effort in November of 2004.
The effort includes precise micro targeting of voters and a sophisticated election-day survey of key precincts, so Republicans will have a very good idea early in the day where, later in the day, they need to send more buses and more vans. It was modeled on labor unions' precinct-to-precinct, neighbor-to-neighbor successes in 2000, and was first tested nationally in 2001.
Democrats have a similarly-sized effort, but they're a few years behind the RNC in technique. [MARC AMBINDER]
Tomorrow night, you'll get your results the old fashioned way -- watching the AP wire tally the vote counts by precincts.
Stay with On Call all night. W're plugged in to our campaign sources, folks at the parties, the RGA/DGA, journalists in the field and well-connected voters.
No exit polls in NJ, CA or VA.
The campaigns will rely on small surveys of selected precincts to determine turnout, but there will be no large-scale campaign-sponsored exit polls.
The Virginia State Board of Elections will make results available here. Polls close at 7:00 pm ET, but it'll take at least two to three hours for a gubernatorial trendline to show up.
In New Jersey, the attorney general is the statewide election administrator. See results updated here. Polls close at 8:00 pm ET.
In California, the polls close at 11:00 pm ET. You can check the results here.
Ohio's Secretary of State will post results here.
Mayor's races: Governing's 13th Floor blog's got you covered.
From the latest pool report: "Pool Report 3A
Correction to Pool Report 3
Nov. 7, 2005
"Propositioned Pool" should read "Prepostioned Pool"
No one in your pool was "propositioned," at least as far as I know.
Richard Benedetto"
Chatting with Gov. Mark Warner (D) following a Kaine for Governor rally on Friday in Warner's hometown of Alexandria, we could not resist hitting him with an '08 question or two. Perhaps leading the witness, we asked the gov if he would feel more comfortable being open about his nat'l ambitions after his successor is chosen on Tuesday.
Warner deftly batted that one aside, saying that he had a "job until January 14th" and that he would keep his focus until then on Richmond. Asked, then, if it was safe to assume that we would not see Warner in other capitals -- say, Des Monies or Concord -- between Tuesday and January 14th, he said nothing yet everything with a wide grin and a long, 'you're not getting me to go there' stare.
For the record, Warner was introduced at the rally to raucous applause and scattered chants of "4 More Years." And after saying wistfully that he wished he had a 2nd term and ticking off the accomplishments in the one he had, (also to applause) Warner previewed his message for those folks he may or may not see in IA and NH in the months to come. Sounding an outside-the-beltway note, he boasted that "at least on this side of the river, people in both parties" had come together to put VA first.
We can already see the ad now: "The Virginia Miracle." [JONATHAN MARTIN]
Here's a list of the tomorrow's top mayoral races.
Continue reading "'05 Mayoral Races" »
The Newark Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll is considered the state's most accurate by many professionals.
Their latest numbers, courtesy of Rutgers U's Tim Vercellotti: "In the race for governor of New Jersey, Democrat Jon Corzine leads Republican Doug Forrester 43 percent to 37 percent among likely voters, with 9 percent still undecided, according to the latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll."
Given the environment in NJ, that means it's a close race.
Expect to see a lot more of Vanderburgh Co., IN sheriff Brad Ellsworth. He's been a steady television presence over the weekend, calming nerves and briefing the press after tornados killed at least 22.
The district is represented by GOP Rep. John Hostettler, who was one of eleven in the House to vote against the mammoth Katrina aid package last month.
Hostettler was excoriated by editorial boards (and even a local priest) for his vote.
Ellsworth happens to be a DCCC recruit. He's running for Hostettler's seat.
So once the political climate returns to normal in the district -- if it does -- Democrats might not even have to remind voters of Hostettler vote.
An item in Bob Novak's weekend catch-all column calls the response to a planned 11/7 NYC fund-raiser for Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC "tepid."
Novak says NYC donors list McCain's "age" and his support for the Iraq war as reasons why they are reluctant to pay the $1K price to attend.
But McCain's PAC predicts it will collect more than $1M this coming week, split between more than $650K for the New York event and another $350K in Washington.
"I want more tepid responses like these," says a senior McCain consultant. [MARC AMBINDER]
On Election Night, make sure you're On Call. We'll have reporters dedicated to each major race of the evening, bringing you the latest original reporting on the mood of the campaigns, turnout anecdotes, the victory speeches and concessions, and much, much more.
Plus, we'll instantly post the best items from other dozens of other blogs and websites, so you won't have to go anywhere else. For dynamic, leading-edge coverage of VA Gov, NJ Gov, NYC Mayor, the CA special, big mayoral races and more, On Call will serve you!
Every Friday, the Hotline lists the weekend travel of potential 2008 presidential candidates. And we regularly update our WH '08 Tracking documents (See here, for Democrats, and here, for Republicans) so you can keep tabs on your favorite -- or your potential opponent. Coming soon: details of every major trip taken in 2005 by every potential candidate.
Continue reading "Weekend Calendar" »
Wherein we use the blog to correct errors in today's Hotline.
In discussing legislation to end birthright citizenship, a header of ours implied that Gov. Bill Richardson would not have been a citizen if the proposed rules had been implemented before he was born.
Gov. Richardson's father, in fact, was a United States citizen, and his son Bill would indeed have been granted citizenship regardless.
We regret the error.
The Department of Justice has subpoenad Ohio Rep. Bob Ney's congressional office to provide docs that might pertain to the gov't investigation of Jack Abramoff.
A spokesman for Ney says the Congressman has not been told he is the target of an investigation and has "no reason" to expect that he will be.
He passed along this statement from Ney: "As I have said repeatedly, we will cooperate fully with any inquiry. I voluntarily provided information to the Senate Indian Affairs Committee last year and I have offered to make myself available to meet with the House Ethics Committee. I believe, however, that although the government's investigation of Mr. Abramoff has been well-publicized through other sources, it is inappropriate for my office to comment in any detail about an ongoing investigation."
And props to DNC chair Howard Dean for surprising the GOP... getting in their OODA loop, if you will.
The DNC today announced that the 2008 Dem Nat'l Convention will be held from Mon, 8/25 to Thursday 8/28. According to a DNC release, "The late August convention date will allow the Democrats to host their convention after the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing." DNC Chairman Howard Dean: "I look forward to joining with Democrats from across the country August 25-28th, as we gather to formally nominate our 2008 Presidential ticket."
Cities that have expressed interesting in hosting the convention include Anaheim, CA, and Denver, CO, as well as several others. Dean and the DNC decided on the date after consultation with ex-WH nominees, ex-convention officials, DNC members and other party leaders.
Republicans familiar with RNC planning say it's too early to tell what Dean's announcement means for GOPers. Such an early announcement caught some Republican officials by surprise. The RNC will announce its site selection committee in January and will announce the convention date later. [MARC AMBINDER]
President Bush plans to campaign on Monday for VA Gov candidate Jerry Kilgore, a week after Kilgore snubbed a Bush appearance in Norfolk, VA.
But here's the werid thing: Bush isn't due back from South America until around 9:00 pm ET on Monday night.
So if Bush campaigns for Kilgore on Monday night, will anyone notice? Is that what Kilgore's campaign wants?
Kaine spokesperson Mo Elleithee said "he could not think of a better visual to drive home" their message. Elleithee: "Do you want someone who is going to govern in the fashion of Mark Warner, or someone who's going to govern the way they do it in Washington?" Elleithee added that he just needed "to figure out where to send the thank you note."
Update: we just got this e-mail from the Kilgore campaign:
"Reporters: There will be changes to Jerry Kilgore's Monday schedule.
For further information, you must contact the White House Office of Media Affairs at...."
Is this what it's come to?
Both NJ Gov. candidates, Sen. Jon Corzine (D) and Doug Forrester (R), were blasted with allegations about extra-marital affairs yesterday.
Forrester is combating below-the-radar suggestions that he might have had a special relationship with an ex-Miss New Jersey.
Forrester, asked by a TV producer if he "ever cheated" on his wife: "I'm very proud of my marriage." Asked again: "I have not, if, if what you're asking is if I have sex with somebody else -- no"
Speaking to a newspaper reporter earlier this week, Corzine's ex-wife Joanne accused him of betraying her, strongly hinting that he began an affair before he asked for a divorice. Forrester promptly broadcast a campaign ad featuring this quote from Joanne Corzine: "When I saw the campaign ad where Andrea Forrester said, 'Doug never let his family down and he won't let New Jersey down,' all I could think was that Jon did let his family down, and he'll probably let New Jersey down, too."
Corzine yesterday expressed regret at his wife's comments and launched an ad accusing Forrester of engaging in the "politics of personal destruction."
The Hotline tracks the state visits of the major national candidates for the 2008 presidential race. The following lists visits to early primary states. For purposes of tracking, consecutive days spent in a state are counted as one visit. Coming soon to this space: a detailed account of each trip.
Continue reading "WH '08 Tracking: The Democrats" »
According to an aide to Ex-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD), Saturday's night speech at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Des Moines "will offer a well-deserved critique of the Bush Administration and Republican policies that have hurt our country."
"Tom will also provide specific ideas for a better America -- 'America at its best.'"
Two short excerpts:
"President Bush keeps saying we are turning the corner. The fact is that he has turned so many corners, he is now just turning in circles. This country can't afford to run around in circles anymore."
"More and more Americans have awakened to the fact that this Administration's policies are dead wrong."
From the Arkansas Times's Warwick Sabin: "Gov. Mike Huckabee has used the Arkansas State Police jet to travel to and from destinations outside of the state more than 30 times during 2005, according to flight logs reviewed by the Arkansas Times."
"Many of the trips took Huckabee to meetings and events that related to his position as chairman of the National Governors Association. Others have a more tenuous connection to his official duties."
"For instance, Huckabee and his wife, Janet, flew to Washington, D.C., on the Beechcraft King Air 200 Oct. 28-30 to participate in the Marine Corps Marathon."
Although he's received virtually no media coverage so far, NM SEN candidate/urologist Allen McCulloch (R) quietly raised nearly $136K from various contributors in the 3rd quarter, far outpaising the $21K raised by Santa Fe councilor David Pfeffer (R).
In that time, McCulloch somehow managed to spend only $428, leaving him with over $140K CoH.
The only press mention of McCulloch to date comes courtesy of logger Joe Monahan who wrote in 8/05 that insiders have described McCulloch as a "reliable right-wing" GOPer and "is the son-in-law of well-known Four Corners oilman Jimmy Drake."
A source: "Jimmy has not had the most cordial of relationships with (Sen. Jeff Bingaman), so that could be a factor in this."
Monahan confirmed today that there has been virtually no recent discussion of McCulloch in NM political circles. However McCulloch did visit with NRSC officials in DC in 10/05 and they say he'd be an impressive candidate.
Will McCulloch be able to keep up his fundraising pace now that he's presumably exhausted his personal rolodex? To do so, he'll have to start spending some of the money he's hoarded, and in any event, he'll certainly want to inform the local media and NM GOP leaders of his candidacy. [QUINN MCCORD]
We noticed an intersting article in CA's Capitol Weekly suggesting that prominent Democrats were funding a mailer SUPPORTING three of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's four initiatives. The unlucky prop is number 77, which is, of course, the redistricting initiative.
And here we thought Dems opposed all of them.
"The lion's share of the No on 77 committee's money came from Hollywood producers and Democratic mega-donors Stephen Bing ($4.25 million) and Haim Saban ($100,000). House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, has herself donated $25,000 the committee, and helped corral donations from many of her congressional Democratic colleagues."
Why would Dems sign on to a mailer that touts three of "Arnold's initiatives" -- including teacher tenure reform and restrictions on union spending?
The article calls it a turn out tactic.
Ex ACT Florida dir/Ex. DCCC pol. dir. Karin Johanson has rejoined the DCCC.
She'll serve as a consultant, focusing on Dem. pick-up opportunities in battleground districts.
DCCC Exec. Dir John Lapp tells the Hotline: "With her wealth of experience in political strategy and campaign management, Karin Johanson will help the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democrats across the country make the case to change Congress. Americans are growing tired of the pay-to-play politics, the culture of corruption and cronyism that pervades the Capitol. Karin will be an integral part of our campaign for change come next November."
Paraphrasing one of our favorite lines from the Naked Gun movies, for a man not running for president, Tom Daschle certainly seems to get around marvelously these days.
On Saturday night, of course, he's the guest speaker at the Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner.
Last night, he delivered what an aide billed in advance as a "major foreign policy" address at Northwestern U in Illinois.
"American foreign policy today is broken," Dashcle said last night. "Nowhere as much as on this principle has the President so dramatically failed the country and our military."
More Daschle: "I wish I could share with you the misleading information I personally was provided in September and October of 2002."
Daschle proposed taking 80K American troops out of Iraq after next January's elections in Iraq. 20K of those would be redeployed to Aghanistan. All remaining troops would be home by the end of 2007.
More excerpts after the jump.
Continue reading "Daschle Leans Into Iowa; Calls For Troops Home By '07" »
The species is rare -- a House Democrat who can, almost single-handedly, whip up just opposition to a measure that is otherwise destined for passage under suspension rules.
Consider what happened to HR 1606, known as the Online Freedom of Speech Act. At its essence, it would carve out -- or, preserve -- an exemption from most federal campaign finance laws for internet communications, and, of course, for bloggers.
It was popular. Bloggers liked it, obviously. Corporations and free-speech advocates favored it. The campaign finance reform community called it a major loop-hole -- corporations, unions, and individuals could spend as much as they wanted on internet communications and even (potentially) coordinate their activities with campaigns.
The House leadership quietly added it to the suspension calendar, bypassing committees. That allowed the bill to move to the floor unamendable, but it set the bar higher for passage: a two-thirds majority was needed.
And until this week, the leadership was largely convinced they had enough votes -- virtually all Republicans and a good number of Democrats.
Then Rep. Marty Meehan (D-MA) began to whip. His office set up a warroom with Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT) and public interest groups. Meehan, Shays and co. lobbied centrists and those Republicans who voted for campaign finance legislation. They created outrage that the bill was sneakily placed on the suspension calendar.
The vote yesterday was 225 to 182 -- enough for passage under normal rules, but not two-thirds.
"Now they'll have to bring it through committee and, with the opportunity for debate and amendment, it shouldn't be able to make it to the floor looking like it does now," says an aide to Meehan.
Posting on RedState.org, one of the bill's sponsors, Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, was more optimisitc. "We proved that we can pass this bill in the House under regular order. Working with leadership, I hope we can achieve this worthy goal before the FEC issues new regulations that will prohibit Americans from exercising their First Amendment rights over the Internet."
But for now, chalk up a victory for Meehan (and Shays.) [MARC AMBINDER]
Sen. John Kerry and wife Teresa Heinz today sent an e-mail to members of the Kerry staff alumni listserve one year after his defeat.
One correspondent called it "interesting, albeit depressing."
(BTW: Kerry and Edwards alumni will drink 'till the new day at Hawk and Dove tonight. But you didn't hear that from us.)
From the letter: "You wore your heart on your sleeve, put in long days and endured even longer nights, showed guts and you sacrificed. And if you're anything like us, you still don't feel like you've quite caught up on your sleep. "
"We hope you found time to relax with friends and family, the people who matter most in all of our lives. At the same time, it has been great to talk with many of you and learn of the great success you've had advancing in your professional lives and furthering important causes. It's terrific to see people like Jon Favreau working as Sen. Barack Obama's speechwriter, to see Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli advising Sen. Harry Reid in the Leader's office guaranteeing our voices are heard in the fast growing Hispanic media, to talk with Marcus Jadotte about his efforts at NASCAR, or to see Carrie James giving her all for Rep. Nancy Pelosi just as she did for our campaign. It's also heartwarming to hear about the lifelong friendships many of you made working on our team."
The full text is after the jump.
Continue reading "Kerry To Ex-Staffers: Don't Despair" »
On Election Night, make sure you're On Call. We'll have reporters dedicated to each major race of the evening, bringing you the latest original reporting on the mood of the campaigns, turnout anecdotes, the victory speeches and concessions, and much, much more.
Plus, we'll instantly post the best items from other dozens of other blogs and websites, so you won't have to go anywhere else. For dynamic, leading-edge coverage of VA Gov, NJ Gov, NYC Mayor and the CA special, On Call will serve you!
The
Hotline tracks the state visits of the major potentional candidates for the 2008 presidential race. For purposes of tracking, consecutive days spent in a state are counted as one visit. Coming tomorrow to this space: the 2008 Democrats.
Please
email us at with any questions. [
NORA MCALVANAH]
Continue reading "WH' 08 Tracking: The Republicans" »
Watching the television coverage of Rosa Parks' funeral in Detroit reminded many of us in the Hotline office about the 2002 memorial service for Sen. Paul Wellstone.
Not to say that anything we saw wasn't appropriate or something Ms. Parks wouldn't have wanted... or that Bill Clinton's eulogy wasn't moving ("She showed us every single day what it means to be free. She made us see and agree that everyone should be free.") Or that Aretha Franklin's tribute wasn't tender.
But the cable nets are dipping in and out of it. And without the context and the helpful "Rosa Parks Funeral" chryons at the bottom of the screen, you might think it was a DNC-sponsored memorial.
Many speakers tried to apply the lessons of Ms. Parks' life to modern political questions.
MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, and Sen. John Kerry were among the notable Dems to speak.
Kerry: "It is our time to demand that every vote be counted."
And Granholm told the mourners that she was "reporting for duty."
CNN's new Morning Grinder, Mark Preston, reports that CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's support for a redistricting init in OH is giving OH GOP Reps "heartburn." An anonymous GOP Rep said he understands that Schwarzenegger is "trying to save his own political hide, but he's doing it at our expense." House Speaker Denny Hastert confirmed that he spoke to the gov about the proposal "several times" before he endorsed it. Regula "dismissed" the impact of the Schwarzenegger nod: "He is governor of California, not Ohio."
Not to overly burden or praise the Human Rights Campaign with two blog posts... but we found this interesting.
The Boston Globe today reports that in 1971, Judge Sam Alito "as a senior in college . . . . chaired a report recommending decriminalization of sodomy and an end to discrimination against gay people in hiring."
HRC president Joe Solmonese, who had earlier criticized Alito's nomination, says the article, which doesn't quite link Alito himself to the pro-gay views, "is a hopeful sign that may provide insight into his philosophy."
More Solmonese: "There were very few people standing up for gay Americans 34 years ago and most who did have evolved even more since."
Let the exegesis begin!
Sen. John McCain today launches a new website for "Americans" looking for his brand of "straight talk." You can keep up with McCain's travel schedule, check out videos of his speeches ... oh, and donate to his PAC (they take Visa, MasterCard, AmEx and Discover). Our favorite page, though, is the "Straight Talk Stuff," where you can buy Straight Talk t-shirts (cotton and denim) and matching tote bags. Check it out.
The nation's leading gay and lesbian lobby, the Human Rights Campaign, kicks off a unique and sure-to-be controversial campaign this week in Capitol Hill newspapers.
For the first time, HRC will launch a dedicated campaign to, using its verb, "educate" members of Congress on workplace discrimination faced by Americans who consider themselves transgender.
Continue reading "Transgender Rights In Roll Call" »
We were struggling to write a concise post about the House's consideration of the so-called "Internet exemption" to federal campaign finance laws.
Tomorrow, the Online Freedom of Speech Act, HR 1606, comes to the floor. Rep. Marty Meehan and Rep. Chris Shays and their allies oppose it; they say it's far too broad and would open a loophole for corporations and labor unions to contribute to federal candidates.
Proponents say it's a necessary step to prevent the Federal Election Commission from writing disasterous regulations against bloggers. And that it does nothing to upset the balance struck by the current laws.
Today, Allison Hayward, a well-respected Republican campaign finance lawyer and former FEC official, contributed some verse to a listserve for campaign finance professionals. With her permission, we're reprinting it here. It's called "Paid Ads and Spam."
Continue reading "BCRA, Bloggers, And Poetry" »
Did the Democrats' maneuver work?
Here's what Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) just announced on the Senate floor.
"The Majority Leader and the Democratic Leader will appoint three members from their respective parties to meet and report back to the leadership no later that the close of business on 11/14."
They'll report back on the progress of the phase two review on pre-war intelligence. That portion of the review deals with how policy-makers used intelligence and what they said publicly and privately about it.
Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) defended the probe on the floor of the Senate, saying the phase two report is moving along towards completion. (For a great backgrounder, click here.)
A footnote: several Democratic aides tell us that Sen. Reid and Sen. Jay Rockefeller decided on today's tactic after reading Murray Waas's account on NationalJournal.com of how senior members of Vice President Cheney's staff, including Scooter Libby, may have intentionally withheld crucial documents from the Senate staff. [MARC AMBINDER]
There are two leads to this story.
One is: Democrats today decided to confront the White House and Republicans on pre-war intelligence, wrestling back media attention from President Bush and precipitating legislative armageddon.
Another is: For the first time in two decades, the Senate adjourned to a closed door session today on the behest of Democratic Senators, who threatened to delay all legislative action until Republicans agree to a new probe of intelligence failures before the Iraq war.
Today's actions could have major consequences on Senate business through the end of the year, and possibly even on the 2006 midterm elections.[MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "The Senate Explodes" »
We hear that state Sen. Jim Jordan (R) is considering a bid for Rep. Mike Oxley's (R) OH 04. The district heavily favors the GOP, and gave Pres. Bush 65% in '04. Jordan has served in the state Sen. since '01 and was a state Rep. from '95 to '00. [MOLLY CHAPMAN NORTON]
Sen. John McCain won't officially say he's an '08 candidate, but he sounded like one in an interview with Charlie Rose on PBS last night. McCain addressed a number of pre-WH issues including the effect the Keating 5 had on him, the 2000 SC primary, his "good friend" Rudy Giuliani, his health, his wife's health, and even clarified his vote on the Iraq war. He said of that situation: "I'm a defender and believer in the war in Iraq, or at least that we need to win it. .... We cannot afford to lose. ... The reason why I don't want to have a confrontation with Secretary Rumsfeld -- as long as he's there, I want to work with him, because we've got to win."
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) has contributed money and on-the-ground staff to the re-election campaign of Manchester Mayor Bob Baines. And on November 5, Kerry will join Baines on the stump. (Staffers were passing out hand bills promoting the event at this weekend's J-J dinner, which featured Sen. Evan Bayh.)
Two '08 hopefuls attended this weekend's Marine Corps Marathon -- but only one of them ran. AR Gov. Mike Huckabee went largely unrecognized excerpt for when he sat in a sponsored booth, signing copies of his new book. Huckabee turned in an impressive time of 4 hours, 37 minutes. Also there was VA Sen. George Allen, who, alas, didn't run, but did get to fire the starter's pistol. Our spy did not see Allen and Huckabee chat...
