Can Hil Top Bill?

Here's an extended excerpt from Chuck Todd's On The Trail buzz column from last week. (Subscribers get the full column, archives, and Chuck's wisdom a week before you do!)

When searching for potential Democratic roadblocks to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's likely march toward the 2008 Democratic nomination, a few candidates stand out. One is New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. If a Democratic consultant were trying to create the ideal presidential candidate, Richardson would be the model.

For the last two weeks, we've been immersed in all things Richardson in preparation for an on-camera interview we conducted with him for C-SPAN's "After Words." This meant, among other things, reading Richardson's book, "Between Worlds."

As we said in the interview, the book felt incomplete and somewhat unfocused at times. Richardson has had a fascinating career in public service and could have easily narrowed the book's context to his run-ins with world thugs and other notorious figures in American and world politics. Is there another person on this planet who can claim to have sat down face-to-face with Fidel Castro, Saddam Hussein, Slobodon Milosevic and Monica Lewinsky?

The book could have also narrowed its focus to the issues Americans will face as the country becomes majority-minority. New Mexico is one of just a handful of states where no ethnic group represents more than 50 percent of the population. And he's on the frontlines of the next great battle in the culture wars: immigration.

In the absence of a concentration on a particular issue, the book becomes more memoir than anything else. And despite everything we thought we knew about Richardson, we learned quite a bit about the man and his fascinating background. Apart from his gargantuan ego, we came away more impressed with his credentials as a major presidential candidate even while having doubts about whether 2008 will be his year.

If a Democratic consultant were trying to create the ideal presidential candidate, Richardson would be the model: He's a sitting Western governor from a red state who has vast experience in foreign affairs, including first-hand experiences in countries of the highest concern to this country. He's an ethnic mix of Northeastern blue blood and Mexican but has a governing ideology that's pro-business with left-of-center tendencies. He's a Latino in appearance with a gringo last name who speaks fluent Spanish. All future presidential candidates should have experienced electoral defeat at least once (Richardson's done that) and all should have an incredible ambition that borders on overdrive which launched their career. (Richardson has that, just look at how he carpetbagged his way into New Mexico's congressional delegation in a mere four years of taking up residency.)

The only thing the lab would add that Richardson's missing is a stable full of kids, military experience (he got out of Vietnam thanks to a deviated septum) and, shall we say, a svelter physique. Still, Richardson has a potent background and resume that, judging from the 2004 results, should be the antidote to all that ails the Democratic Party.

But for some reason, in the national Democratic salons that we believe still matter (particularly for fundraising), Richardson's not viewed as top tier in the 2008 anti-Hillary presidential sweepstakes. Democrats Evan Bayh, John Edwards and Mark Warner wish they had the background of Richardson and yet all, at least for right now, are viewed higher on the presidential pecking order than New Mexico's popular governor.

We attribute Richardson's struggles in the national Democratic circuit to a whisper campaign that contends he's a bit reckless and "unpresidential" (whatever that means). This is a reputation that's likely been earned by the fact that he's got a coarse, or blunt, way of speaking to folks in private or semi-private situations. If you didn't know him, you could even come away offended. (John McCain is this way with reporters as well.) To his credit, Richardson doesn't try to hide this side of his personality in his book, which has a few choice "blue" words.

There's a "soft" side missing to Richardson's personality that also has us wondering if he's just not going to be able to appeal to women as well as other Democrats have in the past. Married women over 40 are still the great swing vote of American politics and our guess is that he doesn't make the best first impression with this key demographic. Then again, the toughness that his personality emits is something that's usually missing from Democratic candidates on all levels.

Before sitting down with him and reading his memoir, we had Richardson pegged as someone who was cautiously ambitious and would wait his turn even if he didn't like waiting. Translation: If Bill Clinton asked him not to run against his Hillary in 2008, Richardson would postpone his presidential ambitions.

After spending so much time getting to know Richardson, we're not so sure of that analysis. He is a politician who makes a lot of gut decisions that sometimes seem silly -- and ridiculously self-serving -- at first and yet have allowed him to pile up an impressive list of accomplishments. His first run for Congress should have been treated as a joke and it was by the national party. But Richardson defied the odds and came from nowhere to make a real race and only narrowly lost to one of New Mexico's Republican icons at the time.

Richardson bullied his way to the top of New Mexico politics and did so without ever waiting his turn, which leads us to believe he is a sure-bet to run in 2008 -- no matter how unstoppable Clinton appears. He wants the presidency as badly as any candidate we've seen in a long time. Richardson also knows that if he doesn't run in 2008 and someone from his party wins, there won't be another shot for an ambitious Democrat like himself until 2016.

Candidate Richardson has some flaws, but barring some skeleton he's failed to reveal, they are flaws he can overcome. Dismiss his chances in 2008 at your own peril.