Lessons Learned: The Surprises

More, from Wednesday's Hotline. We asked several dozen top GOP and Dem strategists to tell us what surprised them about the 2005 elections.


What Surprised Democrats
      Ex-Dean Campaign Mgr. Trippi: "Given Governor Warner's huge popularity -- and the National GOP and Bush's low ratings right now -- the surprise for me was that Bolling won in Virginia and that the AG race is a toss up -- It indicates to me that we make a mistake by focusing on Bush instead of a broader focus on failed GOP policies."
      A union political dir.: "The surprise is that the place where all the traditional things should have worked they didn't: VA. Warner lost a bigger lead and won narrowly, Kilgore had less of a lead to overcome and couldn't with all the base issues of abortion, death penalty, immigration etc. supposedly working for him. Bush's base is in bad shape, worse than anyone thinks and getting it back will be harder than anyone thinks."
      From a Democratic pollster: "The rather spectacular failure by the usually venerable Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll. The Dispatch has historically outperformed other Ohio polls. Yesterday it was about as wrong as a poll can be."
      Dem consultant Jamal Simmons was surprised by the Detroit mayoral election, in which incumbent Kwame Kilpatrick (D) scored a come-from-behind victory. "I have always thought that Kilpatrick was one of the most gifted politicians I have ever known, but this time I sadly thought his excesses had gotten the best of him. I was wrong."
      Dem strategist Kiki McLean said she was surprised that "the lengths to which the Republicans were willing to go in these campaigns to win. It seemed to be a 'take all' mentality in ways I haven't seen even in some our darkest political hours."
      "If anything," Doyle said he was surprised "at how close Democrats came to winning downballot in VA. You have to believe that Warner's popularity has helped Democrats find a new identity in the state. ... It remains to be seen if it can be durable."
      Dem Bill Buck said he was surprised by the success of LG and AG GOPers in VA "to pick up Kaine voters."
      Dem pollster Harrison Hickman, referring to NYC: "That you can out-spend your opponent by $75 million (about $65 per vote cast to $4 per vote cast, or $110 per vote received to $10 per vote received) in a one media market election and still win less than 60%."



What Surprised Republicans
      GOP strategist Craig Shirley said he was surprised that "a cretin like Corzine won so easily." And that 60,000 people in Virginia "found Kilgore so flawed, then jumped over his race yet still voted" in the LG and AG race.
      GOP strategist Ed Rollins, somewhat surprisingly, was surprised by "Arnold getting so blown away in California. The lesson is don't put everything 'your enemies don't want on the same ballot' so that they can turn it into a holy war.'
      EX-Gop Leadership aide Jonathon Grella said he was surprised that Doug Forrester's ex-Mrs. Corzine ads "didn't completely backfire" and that "more people weren't creeped out by Kaine's extreme close-ups, raised eyebrow, and 'I want to smooch you' smirk in ads." Also, that '08 aspirant Warner "could barely read a script in Kaine's ads and comes off like Tony Robbins with a mouth full of Jiff.'
      GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio: "How readily the political professionals in our party threw both President Bush and Arnold under the proverbial bus! The Kilgore and RNC folks had to know that Kilgore was going to take a monumental drubbing yesterday, but they STILL sent the President in at the last moment so there can be NO doubt who the media should blame the loss on I guess. In Arnold's case, they counseled him to put 4 initiatives on the ballot, had him campaign extensively for them, raise money to pass them, took the money and then watched Arnold's credibility and political capital get crushed."
      Senior GOP strategist w/WH ties: "What surprised me the most was the President's visit to Richmond. It likely had a more profound effect on Dem turnout than GOP turnout. Riling a base is always easier than motivating one in the last days of a campaign."
      GOPer running a statewide in '06: "That as bad a campaign as Kilgore ran, he still lost. I never thought the Democrats could win two statewides in a row in Virginia."
      Grover Norquist: "I was surprised that Washington voted against cutting the gas tax-this only weeks after Oklahoma defeated a gas tax hike 87-13."
      The GOPer w/ties to a WH '08er: "The thing that surprised me the most was the defeat of parental notification in CA. I don't know [should have post-election data soon] if this was because it was swamped with the other ballot initiatives [it ran ahead I think of all the others] or if arguably the nation's most culturally liberal state has really gone this far afield. Remember, a ban gay marriage passed strongly in CA not long ago. Challenges the thesis that the nation is becoming at once more pro-life and pro-gay."
      From a GOP strategist with close ties to VA: "I was stunned at how pathetic the ads for Kilgore were. His best and most effective ads were those where he spoke directly to camera, but his media advisors chose a different tactic. Instead, they produced mean-spirited, dark ads with no positive message. The production quality of all but the "to camera" ads were, at best, mediocre. The anti-immigrant ads were particularly distasteful and not motivational in the least."
      From a veteran GOP campaign manager: "The overwhelming vote Kaine got in Fairfax County."
      A senior GOP official adds: "That George Allen and John Warner couldn't pull Kilgore over the top. This means that Allen is in the same boat McCain is in: to run and win in '08 means surrendering a Senate seat to a Democrat. Folks will be thinking about that. Ouch."