December 2005

It seems a Xmas break never goes by without some bizarre campaign trial balloon. This year's comes out of, where else, NY: The Donald for NY GOV.

Apparently, if he runs, he'll do so as a Republican. Folks will recall that Trump toyed with a presidential bid in 2000 as a Reform Party candidate. With "The Apprentice" starting to wane just a bit, politics just might be the perfect "next act" for America's number one ego maniac. Eliot Spitzer should be so lucky.

but still.

Coverage of Jeanine Pirro's latest campaign-opening gaffe in the New York Post and the Albany Times-Union.

A Hotline writer vacationing in beautiful San Diego passes along a package of articles from the Union Tribune.

GOP Rep. Jerry Lewis's ties to a former staffer-cum-lobbyist are probed. Nothing especially hinky... but close sifting of a cozy, quite common relationship. And a weird picture of Lewis and his dog.

The writer, Copley's Jerry Krammer, makes the point that coverage of one scandal often pushes the press take a closer look at everything in their orbit. Lewis's perch on the approps committee makes him an easy target for scrutiny.

BTW: Regional AP political writers used to scrub the financial disclosure forms of all 535 members of Congress at least once every two years -- their assets, liaibilities, loans, equity holdings, properties, charities, chief contributors, campaign accounts, etc.
Do they still do this? Let us know.

Health care? Immigration? Alito? Budget? Family cohesion? National defense? AIDS in Africa?

"Newt's latest paper: QUANTUM MECHANICS: FROM SCIENCE PROBLEM TO ENGINEERING SOLUTION"

Below, two documents the WH is sending to reporters and surrogates today, touting budget successes. If you're cynical, just realize that you'll get to read these words before Fred Barnes says them!

Download file

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It seems we've seen a story about Bill Frist like this one from Bloomberg every time the Senate went into recess in 2005. Is it any wonder there are a growing number of smart folks in DC predicting Frist will eventually NOT pull the trigger on '08? We're not sure what he can do in '06 to fix his bad '05, but he needs to figure out something to shake this current image.

Frist is trying to put the best spin he can on his '05 in an email to VOLPAC supporters. Complete email text after the jump:

On Call Assignment Desk time.

Within the past few weeks:

1. The election supervisor for the county encompassing Tallahassee, FL saw voting results hacked before his eyes. He decertified Diebold. Jeb Bush noticed and wants a full review of Florida's voting machines.

2. Diebold chief Wally O'Dell -- he of "deliver the election" to Bush fame -- resigns.

3. CA refuses to certify Deibold yet, reversing a reversal.

4. St. Louis Co., MO decertifies Diebold machines.

5. North Carolina is apparently about to do the same.

Assigned to: Tom Edsall, Scott Shane, Sharon Theimer, Mark Memmott, Bloomberg News

It begins today.

Rep. Mike Pence (R) was named Human Events' Man of the Year.

NY AG candidate Mark Green today "welcomed" Jeanine Pirro (R) to the race by telling her she's violating FEC regs. His letter to Pirro is after the jump.

[CORRECTED: A previous version of this post said "New York State Campaign Finance Laws."]

This letter was published in the Omaha World Herald today.

---------

Now that U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel has joined the liberal Democrats (our own Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson is not one) and voted to filibuster the Patriot Act, it is time for him to go.

Since President Bush has been in office, Sen. Hagel has done everything in his power to hurt the president's initiatives so Hagel can be called a "maverick." Now he is so arrogant that he doesn't even care if he is hurting us.

It is obvious even to the casual observer that Sen. Hagel is cut out of the same political cloth as Bill Clinton, who moistened a finger and stuck it in the air to decide what to say on any particular day. Nebraska deserves better.

Chuck Hagel is an embarrassment. I'll bet he can find a job back on the East Coast somewhere. I'm sure he and his politics would fit in much better there.
John Larsen, Elkhorn, Neb.

I had the pleasure of appearing this afternoon on ABC News Now's Politics Live with ex-colleagues Geoff Morrell and Jonathan Karl.

And on the program, Karl passed along some ABC News reporting.

Not only does Sen. Stevens' office refuse to parse the sentence, but an ABC News producer who ran into Stevens last night said the Senator said he didn't know if he would be coming back.

So could Stevens actually retire? Who knows?

BTW: The Christmas recess has been known to produces surprise departures. [MARC AMBINDER]

• 1/2: Under media and Dem glare, House GOPers put the kibosh on a rule requiring caucus leaders to step down from their posts if indicted. The rule was nicknamed the "DeLay" rule.
• 1/2: Popular Rep.
• Bob Matsui
(D-CA) dies. His wife Doris is later elected to replace him.
• 1/6: Sen. Barbara Boxer challenges the '04 election results as the Electoral College "meets;" it triggers a Senate debate over election administration. Boxer bolsters her lefty creds.
• 1/11: MI Sec/State Candace Miller (R) says no to a MI Sen race.
• 1/18: House Ways and Means Chair Bill Thomas calls the Bush Social Security plan a "dead horse."
• 1/24: Nixon tapes erasure Sec. Rose Mary Woods dies.
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Dem Hill aides, campaign mgrs and consultants are getting their year-end memo from the Democratic National Committee and its pollster, Cornell Belcher today.

The key point, per the memo: "Americans feel the choices being made by the people running our government have undermined our nation’s values (6.32 on a scale of 0 to 10). This is a very damning point for an Administration and Party that has risen to power largely around ideas of values and moral leadership."

Full text after the jump.

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) unloaded on Dick Cheney in a conference call 12/21 with NE scribes.

According to the Grand Island Independent, Hagel compared Cheney unfavorably to Ronald Reagan, who he said was not a "vitriolic person or one to impugn the motives of people who disagreed with them." More Hagel: "Never did he do that. There is no place for that in politics because it debases our system and our process." He said Americans are "sick and fed up" with that type of politics. "Cheney's poll numbers are very, very low. ... It doesn't help when you characterize [critics] ... as unpatriotic or not caring about our people or our security. The American people see through that, and it is beneath the dignity of our country."

Then, this gem from the Lincoln Journal-Star: When asked about Cheney's warning that critics of the Bush admin's domestic eavesdropping program could pay a heavy political price, Hagel said, "My oath is to the Constitution, not to a vice president, a president or a political party."

Republican pollster Steve Lombardo is blunt: the year for President Bush, he says, was a "failure."

Below the jump, read his full e-mail, the introduction to his consulting firm's year-end review.

1. Ralph Reed's raunchy assistant.

2. NH Dems plot primary strategy.

3. Wonder why people say Sen. John McCain (D-Media)? Wonder no more.

From Wake-Up Call: Today's Breakfast Flake:

"I would have chosen Michigan" -- Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), wishing it were (R-MI).

"I say goodbye to the Senate tonight."

What did he mean?

The political metrics of the NSA spying issue are not zero-sum, especially since neither party has figured out the right rhetorical and positional balance on those grand civil liberties-v-national security questions.

Forget George Lakoff: in this debate, facts and narrative both matter.

Our thoughts below are (a) somewhat obviou and (b) positive, not normative.

Most Americans WANT the president to "HUNT DOWN TERRORISTS" and probably care about court orders and oversight secondarily. We wouldn't be surprised if the phrase "court order" sounds to most Americans like "with the support of our allies" sounded during the presidential campaign.

A guess: if the administration can keep the frame on terrorism, Americans won't care as much about the technicalities of whether Bush fibbed when he suggested in '04 that courts supervise surveillance activities. (Given the choice between revealing a highly classified program you believed critical to national security or eliding over distinctions, wouldn't you choose the latter course?)

Dems and civil liberties advocates hope a different narrative prevails. As in -- "domestic surveillance of US citizens."

If, say, thousands of citizens had their e-mail monitored without warrants or domestic to domestic phone calls were picked up, and if the WH knew about it -- then atmospherics favor a challenge to the president's credibility.

Consider: probable Specter hearings in Jan, FISA's own investigation, internal NSA and CIA investigations, inevitable (and serious) court challenges, dueling op-eds, drib-drab revelations of inadvertent miscues and, in six months, a new debate about the Patriot Act -- well if there's domestic creep-us-out stuff there, it'll probably come out.

By the way: we used the word "spy" in the first sentence of this post. We could easily have written this sentence: "the political metrics of the NSA collection program to monitor suspect terrorists..."

If the debate fixates on "spying" -- it's not good for the administration. If "terror" prevails -- it is. [MARC AMBINDER]

AP nabbed interviews 12/21 with two exiting govs/would-be '08ers -- Dem Mark Warner of VA and GOPer Mitt Romney of MA -- both of whom (shocker!) played coy about their future plans.

Warner, of course, this year formed a federal PAC, Forward Together, that raised more than $2.5M at a fundraiser in McLean, the richest political fundraiser ever in VA. In 7/05, he hired a top adviser to Al Gore's 2000 campaign, Monica Dixon. He's headed back to NH on 2/10 to keynote the NH Dems' 100 Club dinner. (No one, repeat no one, voluntarily goes to Manchester in February unless they're thinking of running for president).

But none of that, Warner protested, means he's locked in to running. "If you've sat in on any of my family discussions, I can assure you, I've not made any decision," Warner, who leaves office in 23 days, told the AP's Bob Lewis.

Romney -- who announced last week that he'll forgo a reelection bid to focus on, well, other things -- told the AP's Glen Johnson that he'll decide whether to run for president in '07. "I think generally people think about these sorts of things being considered some time in '07, not in '05, not in '06, some time in '07," he said as he sat in his Statehouse office, a fire crackling in the fireplace and the smell of smoke wafting through the room.

Nice color, Glen. [JOHN MERCURIO]

1. Specter works on Patriot Act deal; tries to promise wavering Sens that he'll hold hearings early in the year on civil liberties.

2. First budget cutting bill since '97 passes the Senate. But Dem procedural motions bottle it up until at least the beginning of Feb b/c the House needs to re-approve it. That gives Dems a month to pound GOPers for allegedly cutting serves for kids and the elderly.

3. ANWR's out until at least the Senate passes its '07 budget resolution. Frist's vaccine liability provisions are still in the defense approps bill, though, and Dems will try to strip it out parliamentarily if it gets to the floor. More details after the jump.

4. Labor/HHS approps should pass the Senate tonight.

She's still with KR, she's not leaving, and she's doing her job.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reported $22.4M on hand at the end of November. Our figure was off by about seven million. We regret the error.

"As I'm walking, I hope they are walking [Transport Workers Union leader Roger] Toussaint to jail," said Peter Johnson, 56, a Columbia College administrator trekking to work along Broadway. "The people this will hurt the most are the working poor. They can't bear another burden, especially at this festive time of the year."

Though only two days old, the strike is pushing the millions who in live in and around NYC to the boiling point. And if the anecdotal flavor from the NY tabloids is representative, the TWU is coming in for the lion's share of the blame.

Another Bottleneck State

As with a number of other small states, DE has a problem: Too much talent, not enough room on the bench. A number of Dems expressed concern that several stellar candidates, all of whom would do well on the nat'l scene, will be forced to run against each other sooner rather than later. Expensive primaries full of talented candidates could leave eventual nominees bloodied and ripe for the picking by GOPers, who are otherwise in the minority. [REID WILSON]

In early Jan, he'll be in Las Vegas to address the Consumer Electronics Show. Potential presidential candidates traditionally don't speak there. But Allen would run in part on "innovation" and there are probably worse ways to get cred with folks on the edge of technology.

BTW: Allen sent out a fundraising e-mail last night, asking supporters to give donations to his re-election campaign before the 12/31 4th quarter FEC fundraising report deadline.

With VA Gov.-elect Tim Kaine's (D) victory 11/05, "the National Democrats got ideas about Virginia. The way Howard Dean and Hillary Clinton see it, if they can turn Virginia from a Republican state into a Democrat one, they will take an enormous step closer to their ultimate goal of taking over Congress and -- ultimately -- the White House. And that all starts with attempting to defeat me in our" '06 re-election campaign. [MARC AMBINDER]

By a vote of 56 to 44, the Senate failed to stop debate on the '06 defense appropriations bill with the ANWR drilling provision attached.

It now returns to conference, where members will likely strip the ANWR plank from the text and resubmit it for a vote.

The AP reports that Jeannine Pirro has dropped out of the NY Sen. GOP primary.

She's expected to announce for A.G. later in the week.

After the jump, an e-mail from a senior Senate leadership aide explains the day from a GOP perspective.

And a debate on cloture for defense approps is ongoing. The bill includes an ANWR drilling provision.

More later.

It is an open secret in Washington that many big-name, partisan political strategy firms have affiliates that handle non-partisan, revenue-producing corporate accounts. But the work gets a little tricky for Democratic consultants, especially if they're affiliated with a party that favors populist crusades against big business.

The New York Observer's Smith reported this week that Mark Penn, pollster for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, was named CEO of a public relations firm that works with Altria, formerly Phillip Morris. And Al Gore took heat for keeping Carter Eskew in his inner circle; Gore regularly lambasted the tobacco industry and Eskew consulted on its behalf.

Today, Wal-Mart figures in many intertwining Democratic relationships. Several coalitions of liberals are arrayed against the company, including two major unions: the Service Employees International Union and the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW).

But Leslie Dach, a Clinton administration communications official who served as senior adviser to the DNC during last year's presidential election, now helps Wal-Mart communicate with the public and press. Many centrist Dems believe that Wal-Mart exerts a net positive force on the economy. And Sen. Clinton herself sat for years on Wal-Mart's board when her husband was Governor of Arkansas. (She left the company in 1992, before Wal-Mart's critics say the company began to engage in exploitative practices.)

Wal-Mart sympathizers are trying to discredit Wake Up Wal-Mart, a UFCW-affiliated group, by noting that Joe Trippi, a Wake-Up Wal-Mart consultant, once did work for the same ex-tobacco exec, Robert McAdam, that Wake Up Wal-Mart slammed the retail giant for hiring.

In 1992, Trippi and then-partner Steve McMahon worked with the Tobacco Institute to help the lobby oppose efforts to raise excise taxes on cigarettes. The Tobacco Institute argued that the taxes would disproportionately fall on minorities.

Trippi and McMahon provided political advice and media strategy to the institute, according to a contract drawn up by both parties. McAdam was their point of contact; McMahon was the lead on the account, according to two people familiar with the arrangements.

Associates of both Trippi and McMahon say that McMahon handled more of the corporate work than Trippi, who spent most of his time working for liberal candidates.

In an interview, Trippi said he's working for Wake Up Wal-Mart "on a near volunteer basis. "And Bob McAdam is working full-time for Wal-Mart. Bob McAdam knows full well that that was Steve McMahon's account and not mine. I would be lying if I said I didn't do some of the work. I did. It's also true that it's one of the major factors in my deciding to leave the firm."

Trippi now works as a boutique consultant for a variety of progressive Dems. Wake-Up Wal-Mart's executive director, Paul Blank, declined to comment.

McMahon remains a close adviser to DNC Chairman Howard Dean and has developed a reputation as a Democratic media strategist who handles his corporate clients with skill and discretion.

He is CEO of Issue and Image, and along with partner John Donovan, engineers issue advoacy campaigns for trade associations, non-profits and businesses. Among them: PhRMA, the lobby of the pharmaceutical industry.

Dean has called "big pharaceutical companies" a "special interest," endorsed allowing Americans to import prescription drugs from Canada, and has been criticial of drug companies' marketing practices.

PhRMA contracted with McMahon's Issue and Image to help the lobby defeat California's Proposition 79, which would have forced drug companies to offer steep discounts on drugs to low-income residents. PhRMA used Issue and Image to help promote a competing proposition on the ballot that would have brought the industry's voluntary drug discount program to CA.

McMahon declined to comment on specific clients. But in an interview, he said he stands by his work on behalf of the drug industry.

"My father died of a heart attack when he was 44. I just turned 45 because I take a cholesterol-lowering drug every day," he said. "So I have a different view of the pharmaceutical industry than some of my Democratic friends."

A further twist: Trippi worked to pass the proposition PhRMA opposed.

McMahon maintains a stake in the original political consultant firm, renamed McMahon, Squier and Associates. Candidate clients have included Dean, and ME Gov. John Baldacci and ex-OR Gov. John Kitzhaber.

It was McMahon who introduced Trippi to Dean. McMahon is an unpaid adviser to the Democratic National Committee. And it was Blank who Trippi hired as political director on Dean's presidential campaign.[MARC AMBINDER]

The most common comparison made to the upcoming '06 midterms has been '94, when Republicans won 52 seats to take back the House. But could a more apt comparison now be made to '02?

In '02, the prevailing assumption heading into the midterms was that the Dems, as the opposition party often does, would pick up seats. And then, like now, there was a potent political issue over national security -- over the creation of the Homeland Security department. Before the midterms, Dems opposed the bill because they wanted protections for the union rights of homeland security employees.

The recent revelations that the Bush administration conducted eavesdropping without warrants bolstered the Dems' bluster. With the help of 4 GOPers, they are filibustering a long-term reauthorization of the Patriot Act. This may seem like smart short-term politicking, but could the GOPers portray the Dems as obstructing national security, if a reauthorization fails? Could national security trump domestic issues again in '06, and play in the GOP's favor?

Political strategists distinctly remember Saxby Chambliss' controversial ad that cycle, which pictured Osama Bin Laden alongside then-Sen. Max Cleland because he opposed the Homeland Security bill over its insufficient protection of worker rights. Many thought the ad would backfire, but the message resonated. If national security again plays a major role, the GOP might perform better than the gloomy predictions of present. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Wonder who discovered the 2004 video of President Bush assuring his audience that when the U.S. decides to seek wiretapes, it gets FISA approval?

Duncan Blank, the curmudgeon known as Atrios, did so at 8:42 a.m.

On Tuesday morning, the DNC web team came across the quote during a routine search of the White House website. Others at the DNC also discovered it on Atrios's blog.

At 12:08 p.m., the DNCposted it to the DNC's blog.

The DNC keeps video of every televised Bush speech; the Bush utterance was quickly cross-checked.

As the communication office prepared a press release and DNC chairman Howard Dean crafted a statement, DNC officials distributed the quote via e-mail to reporters in Washington.

Within hours, CNN and MSNBC had played the clip. The Hotline noted it on this blog. NBC Nightly News devoted an entire segment to it.

Two things are clear: the RNC probably envies the DNC for their quick work. And that the same quotation would probably have been found by others, eventually. (And truthfully, we can't be certain that these television networks didn't independently find the quote, although we didn't hear about it until the DNC issued its early afternoon press release.) Still, when news cycles turn over rapidly, quickness counts. And more swing voters get their news from NBC Nightly News than from any other evening news program. So score one for the DNC.

Incidentally, The White House told NBC that Bush was speaking specifically about FISA warrants authorized by the Patriot Act. After the jump, we've pasted the full excerpt from Bush's speech so you can judge for yourself. [MARC AMBINDER]

For the month, the DCCC reported raising $2.45M and ended November with $11.24M CoH.

The GOP's committee took in $3.75M and has $19.5M on hand without any debts.

Last week, Hotline's Last Call! asked readers to submit definitions of the word "Biden."

The best responses (of all parts of speech):

Your definitions of "biden" took on all parts of speech and were hilarious. Among them: "Shifty like a dog who might deal drugs"; "Squinty from overexposure to klieg lights"; "Excessively tanned"; "Out of place as it relates to suits and them being worn by men from Delaware"; "Gummy"; "Shiny, brilliant as it relates to teeth. Also see 'vain chompers'"; "A state of perpetual Sunday TV presence. See also 'televangelist' and 'Greg Gumbel'"; "To accept a televised interview with little or no hesitancy"; "The condition of a tuft of hair grown long on the front edge of the scalp to create the misleading appearance of additional hair. Also described as 'schum'"; "Never-going-to-be-president"; "Electable"; "Vice-Presidential"; "To biden is to talk at length after saying 'in conclusion'"; "To bloviate"; "Needing constant affirmation of one's beauty, importance, or relevance, gaining such affirmation through televised ubiquity characterized by occasionally bizarre statements. e.g. Administrators were wary after the biden high school senior sent valentines to every girl in his class."; "Ceaselessly preening, as in: 'Jerry Rice was almost catlike on the field, so biden in his care for his accoutrements"; "Delawarish"; "Not quite concise or succinct, perhaps rambling or tedious, dare we say interminable or not really to the point, or even using a plethora or greater number of words when just a few might actually suffice"; "Officious, or as plagiarized from Roget's Thesaurus, self-important"; "Longwinded but brief, well-coiffed but balding"; "Slickly portentious"; "Balding beautifully"; and, "Blabby."

Like CA, the stars we were watching in '03 have performed well thusfar. Several Dems running for higher office this year may prove to be the DCCC's most formidable recruits in the country. GOPers, meanwhile, are vying for a spot as Gov. Jodi Rell's (R) LG. Both parties agree that CT is chock full of bright young talent, several of whom may be headed for clashes with each other in the not-too-distant future, thanks to just five CDs and Sens who show no sign of leaving any time soon. [REID WILSON]

The Democratic National Committee is drafting a FOIA request for info on the NSA's domestic spying program. DNC chair Howard Dean announced the decision in an e-mail to supporters this afternoon.

He wants to see the still-classified legal opinions and memos written by the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel on the NSA controversy.

Dean: "Since the program's existence is no longer a secret, these memos should be released -- Americans deserve to know exactly what authority this administration believes it has."

Dean asks recipients to "help pressure" the admin. to release the documents by signing on to the Freedom of Information Act request.

WH DCoS Karl Rove's Office of Strategic Initiatives has put together a memo for reporters and GOPers touting the president's recent recovery in national public opinion polls.

Confirmed speakers at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis, TN: Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN), Mike Huckabee (R-AR) and MA Gov. Mitt Romney. TN Sen. Lamar Alexander is also on the roster. More speakers TBA.

The conference begins on March 9 in beautiful Memphis, TN. The Hotline will sponsor a presidential straw poll of the several thousand GOP county leaders, activists, state officials and politicians who will attend.

Click here for more information, and check the Hotline regularly for up-to-date news, including the newest confirmed speakers.

Last week, it was Sen. John Kerry. (Or so he joked.)

Today, it's Sen. Barbara Boxer.

And Rep. John Lewis.

And Rep. John Conyers introduced a resolution of censure against Bush today.

Democrats are sending around this quotation from President Bush:

"Now, by the way, any time you hear the United States government talking about wiretap, it requires -- a wiretap requires a court order. Nothing has changed, by the way. When we're talking about chasing down terrorists, we're talking about getting a court order before we do so. It's important for our fellow citizens to understand, when you think Patriot Act, constitutional guarantees are in place when it comes to doing what is necessary to protect our homeland, because we value the Constitution."

DNC Chairman Howard Dean's response: "The Bush Administration's secret program to spy on the American people reminds Americans of the abuse of power during the dark days of President Nixon and Vice President Agnew. Why is it that President Bush went in front of the American people and said that a wiretap 'requires a court order,' after having approved a wiretap program without a court order two years earlier? It's time for the President to tell the truth. Americans deserve real answers."

Here's Hotline's quote of the day:

"None of your civil liberties matter much after you're dead."
-- Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), The Hill

The Nat. Rep. Sen. Committee took it about $2.3 million and spent about the same, ending November with about $9M in the bank. They've raised $33M for the year.

The Dem. Sen. Campaign Committee reports raising $3.6M in Nov., and spending $1.6M of it, leaving them with $16.7M in their kitty. In '05, the DSCC has so far collected $38.7M.

In a recent National Journal article, we reported that associates of VA Sen. George Allen worry that he'll have trouble raising the tens of millions he'd need for a presidential race.

Major candidates in both parties will almost certainly opt out of the public financing system; Democrats, to try and contain the Clinton juggernaut, and Republicans, to try and...contain the Clinton juggernaut. Also: a half dozen hungry GOPers with access to deep pockets are thinking about a run, so raising enough to compete in primaries well into March and April is critical. Is Allen up to the task? [MARC AMBINDER]

The Republican National Committee says they raised $5.95 million in November and ended the month with an impressive $31.9 million on hand. Through the year, the RNC says it's raised 91.7 million.

Overall, the RNC continues to dominate. However -- their margin over the DNC declined in Nov., which is not surprising. GOP strategists acknowledge that November was their worst month, and the 11/8 election results didn't help.

The Democratic National Committee raised a handsome $5.3 million in November but spend nearly eighty percent of its haul, according to documents filed today with the Federal Election Commission.

The DNC reports about $7 million cash on hand.

The party has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to train dozens of new organizers and communications directors. The DNC has full-time staff in 30 states today. Much of the cost for the program, which chair Howard Dean has claimed as a legacy, is frontloaded, DNC officials say. They want to reassure campaign managers in particular that the party will have plenty left in '06 for coordinated campaigns.

A side note: The DNC will soon announce the hire of a new finance director.

Sen. Jay Rockefeller's letter to Cheney on NSA spying; George Will wonders why Bush didn't ask Congress for permission.

CT Gov. Jodi Rell (R)suspends her chief of staff over ethics questions.

Progress for America announces a multi-million dollar travel tour for Alito surrogates.

We thought our Diageo/Hotline poll was on the leading edge of public opinion. Turns out, we were right.

KLo interviews an evangelical scholar on Romney and Mormonism. A must read.

New Mexico's Lt. Gov. takes it all back. Marc Ambinder does not.

1. Dems in Ohio have a new chair: he's Ohio State Rep. Chris Redfern. And importantly, he's a supporter of Rep. Ted Strickland's gubernatorial bid.

2. Ret. Gen. Wes Clark live-blogged tonight on the president, national security and Iraq.

3. We tried all day to come up with a post explaining the fascinating but arcane debate about President Bush's new nominees to the FEC. Mike Krempasky's take on RedState is one-sided, but it's a good place to start.

More staff turnover in CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's office. His comm. dir. Rob Stutzman, will manage the governor's re-election campaign. The replacement is Adam Mendelsohn, a vice president of the shadowy, mysterious (we kid) DCI Group. He's also a vet of several CA statewide campaigns and is said to be a good manager.

News that Ohio's UAW endorsed Paul Hackett for OH Sen. surprised national labor leaders in DC. Not that they expected UAW to bow down to Rep. Sherrod Brown in the primaries -- Lloyd Mahaffey, the UAW's regional rep doesn't get along with Brown -- but they don't know why the UAW thinks Hackett would be the better general election candidate.

Brown, a tried-and-true labor Dem, has been endorsed by the Cleveland AFL-CIO, and we're told that other state and local labor feds will follow suit.

Even labor political officials not unsympathetic to the UAW wonder why the same union that endorsed Paul Hackett because he's electable believes that Rep. Marcy Kaptur would make a better gubernatorial candidate than Rep. Ted Strickland.

Polling done for other unions in the state suggests that Hackett has trouble outside SW Ohio and that he is roughly tied with Brown in head-to-heads against Sen. Mike DeWine. Kaptur polls poorly compared to Strickland in the gov. race.

The Ohio AFL will probably endorse Brown in January.[MARC AMBINDER]

It's Hickenlooper's World, We're Just Lucky To Live In It

A number of the GOP stars we watched in '03 have already ascended to higher office by virtue of appointments. While two of our previous GOP stars flamed out in CO 03, another has turned out to be the best candidate to hold onto volatile CO 07 for GOPers. On the Dem side, while big-city mayors don't count as rising stars, a number of people -- including a prominent GOPer -- used the phrase "anything he wants" when referring to Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, and COans had universal praise for House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, a new addition to our watch list. Dems, however, will have a tough primary fight on their hands when Rep. Mark Udall moves on, as several heavyweights eye his seat. [REID WILSON]

An Albuquerque Journal story on the touchy-feeliness of Gov. Bill Richardson hit some Hotline editors in a personal way. At least two of us have had ... close ... encounters with the gregarious gov.

In college, when I was a reporter for the Harvard Crimson, I approached then Sec/Energy Richardson in the spin room after a Gore/Bradley debate in January of 2000.

"Mr. Secretary," I began, "may I chat with you for a moment?"

He looked at me and smiled. "Who are you with?"

The Harvard Crimson, I answered.

And here Richardson reached out and grabbed me in a headlock and gave me a noogie. "Ooh, this guy wants to interview me," he growled.

After about five seconds, he mercifully released his grip and allowed me to interview him.

NB: I was also the recipient of physical affection from another Clinton cabinet secretary that same evening; then Sec/Education Richard Riley suddenly tickled my stomach at the conclusion of our brief interview. [MARC AMBINDER]

In 2006, what are you giving to the nation on the issue of race?

"The fact that some in America believe that I am not concerned about race troubles me. One of the jobs of the president is to help people reconcile and to move forward and unites. One of the most hurtful things I can hear is, "Bush doesn't care about African Americans." ... Obviously, I gotta do a better job about communicating to certain folks. We have an opportunity in New Orleans...to make sure the education system works, to provide ownership...."

"To say unchecked powerful is ascribing some sort of dictatorial position to the president, which I strongly reject...."

"There is oversight. On this program, to suggest that there is unchecked power is to not listen...we have briefed the United States Congress a dozen times."

Bush calls the NSA "Nasa"...

"We'd looked at the intelligence and felt certain that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Intelligence agencies around the world and felt the same way. There was universal feeling that he had weapons of mass destruction."

"When the weapons weren't there, like many Americans, I was concerned and wondered why. ...

"I will continue to speak to the American people on this issue to not only describe the decision-making process but also the way forward."

Bush: "An open debate about law would say to the enemy 'here's what we're going to do.'"

If the threat is so great, why not monitor calls within the country?

"We will, within current law, if we have to. And that's why there is a FISA law. And there's a diffrence between detecting so we can prevent and monitoring and it's important to know the difference between to do."

Does Bush support an independent investigation?

"There are two committes on the Hill which are responsible. Public hearings on programs will say to the enemy: here's what they do....adjust. This is a war."

Does Bush fear a civil war in Iraq?

"My optimism..was confirmed when more than 10 million people went to the polls...constitutions tend to bind societies. It's going to take a while. ... So you're going to see a lot of give and take and it's important for us to get this process moving forward....the Iraqis want to live in a free society. What's important in this election is, Iraq will become an ally in the war on terror and Iraq will serve as a beacon in a part of the world that [yearns] for freedom and liberty."

Will Bush authorize a leak investigation?

"I presume that process is moving forward [at the DOJ]. My personal opinion is that it was a shameful act for someone to disclose this very important program in a time of war. The fact that we're discussing the program is helping the enemy. I hope the American people understand there is still an enemy that would like to strike the American people."

Bush cites the Bin Laden/sat phone example from '98.

Why did you skip the basic safeguard of asking courts for permission of these intercepts?

"Right after September the 11th, I knew we were fighting a different kind of war. I asked people in my admin. to analyze how best for me and our government to do the job people expect us to do, whcih is detect and prevent a possible attack. We looked at the possible scenarios and the people responsible...came forth with the current program. It helped us to be ...faster and quicker. FISAs is for long-term monitoring. What is needed to protect the American people is to move quickly. Do I have the legal authority to do this? And the answer is: absolutely. The legal authority is derived from the constitution as well as the authorization of force by the United States Congress."

He defends the NSA's domestic collection program:

"Al Qaeda was not a conventional enemey...and communicated from here..." to [terrorists elsewhere." ... "This new threat required us to think and act differently."

"After September 11, using the authority that I have, [we asked] how do we effectively detect enemies hiding in our midst and prevent them from striking them again? To save American lives, we need to act fast ... so, consistent with the law and the constitution, I authorized [the monitoring] of international communications of people with known links to Al Qaeda and to terrorists. The program is carefully reviewed every 45 days to ensure that it is being used properly. Leaders in the US Congress have been briefed more than a dozen times."

"I've reauthorized this program more than 30 times since the September 11th attacks and I continue to do so for as long as the nation...faces [this threat."

He demands that Senators withdraw their filibuster and renew it immediately.

"In a nation that once lived by the whims of a brutal dictator, the Iraqi people now enjoy constitutionally protected freedoms."

"The formation of the new government will take time as Iraqis work to build consensus."

"As I said last night, this election does not mean the end of violence. But it is the beginnong of something new. Constitutional democracy at the heart of the Middle East."

President Bush will begin his 21st presidential news conference this morning with a short statement on Iraq and the year ahead.

Today's event marks the eighth use of the presidential bully pulpit in two weeks, a rare spurt of activity for any chief executive outside of an election year. (Bush has given five speeches, delivered one live radio address and last night, he spoke to the country about Iraq.)

Last week, we wrote about the subsuface signs that election reform was percolating at the state level, pushed along by a confluence of factors including blogs, impending HAVA deadlines, and common sense.

A development over the weekend is self-evidently important. FL Gov. Jeb Bush wants his state to review the security of direct record voting machines. He's reacting to Leon Co. Supervisor of Election Ion Sancho, who decertified Diebold after a demonstration suggested a hacker could easily and tracklessly manipulate election results.

President Bush will hold a press conference at 10:30 a.m. in the East Room.

Below, the full text of a very special edition of National Journal's CongressDaily, recapping the day's events on the Hill.

To subscribe or to learn more about CongressDaily, click here.

Saturday, December 17, 2005

BUDGET: Deals Close On Katrina Aid, Avian Flu And Reconciliation

Senate Majority Leader Frist failed to get the House to agree to
President Bush's request for $7.1 billion over two years to
prepare for avian flu. But he secured $3.8 billion, more than
enough to cover the first year of implementation, along with
liability protections for vaccine makers, aides said. Frist also
won $3.75 billion in spending on the reconciliation bill to
bolster math and science education, said House Education and the
Workforce Chairman Boehner, noting he was "ordered" to do so.
House Budget Chairman Nussle said negotiators were close to
final agreement as early as tonight on reconciliation, pending
deals on agriculture and Medicaid. But Sen. Gordon Smith,
R-Ore., appears to be balking at agreeing to the scope of the
Medicaid cuts. Nussle said House-proposed welfare overhaul
provisions and cuts in child support enforcement programs were
likely to be dropped, as well as a provision splitting the 9th
U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Other sources said repeal of
anti-dumping subsidies to U.S. manufacturers -- known as the
Byrd Law -- was still in play, as well as how to offset the $7
billion cost of freezing Medicare physician payments at their
current rates for one year.

The outlook was still cloudy for a $142.5 billion FY06 Labor-HHS
spending bill, and divisions over drilling in the Artic National
Wildlife Refuge could complicate final approval of FY06 Defense
appropriations. House Speaker Hastert won agreement from Senate
Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Ted Stevens,
R-Alaska, to let the reconciliation bill go through after House
approval of the Defense bill. "As you know, at this stage of the
game, anything can go wrong everything is on track so far,"
Hastert said. "We just have to know that that bill's going to
come over here" before signing the reconciliation conference
report, Stevens said.

A handful of House moderates are meeting today to discuss their
response to Stevens' insertion of the provision to allow ANWR
drilling, although it is expected to pass the House. They could
vote against the Defense bill or reconciliation, which will
follow the Defense measure. "The shameful conduct of the gang
that brought us the $225 million 'bridge to nowhere' personifies
this Congress," said ANWR opponent Rep. Sherwood Boehlert,
R-N.Y., who said he might vote against reconciliation. In the
Senate, GOP aides were unwilling to declare victory yet on
achieving the 60 votes necessary to cut off debate on the
Defense bill. Democrats and moderate Republicans were
considering options for stripping ANWR from the bill or delaying
the underlying measure.

The current stopgap continuing resolution expires at midnight,
and the House is preparing to vote later today on a CR to last
through Feb. 15, as Hastert wants to send a signal that the
House will finish its work this weekend and not return until
late January. The Senate was considering amending the CR to
change its date to Dec. 31, however, and talks were ongoing.
With the Senate unable to round up votes for the Labor-HHS
measure, House Appropriations Chairman Lewis expressed concern
that bill might have to funded under a CR, although others said
it might hitch a ride on Defense. The Defense spending bill will
come to the House floor Sunday carrying hurricane aid and avian
flu funds, along with possibly a smattering of unrelated
legislation. It also will carry a 1 percent across-the-board cut
affecting all spending except veterans' medical care, Lewis
said, saving $8.6 billion in FY06, in part offsetting Katrina
relief and bird flu funds.

Perhaps understandably, Sen. Harry Reid's office won't comment on the question of whether the Minority Leader was briefed on the program.

It's probably prudent in one sense: even though President Bush acknowledged the program's existence this morning and elaborated on its rationale, it remains classified -- certainly within special compartments.

The Senate's in session today and Reid has been busy, so we presume his counselors are trying to figure out what he can say and what he can't. Only a few of Reiod's staffers -- usually just two or three -- possess the required security clearances.

Rep. Pelosi's statement suggests that she's already spoken to her legal advisers.

The National Security Agency's domestic collection activities are classified based on their stati as 'unacknowledged special access programs'. That status requires that the originating authority -- in this case -- the White House -- notify the majority and minority leaders of the House and Senate, as well as the chair and ranking members of the intelligence committee.

So did Nancy Pelosi and Harry Ried know about the program? Pelosi admits she did but says in a statement today that she expressed concern about the program when she was briefed.

We've asked Sen. Reid's office to comment. (The only communication from Reid's office today on the NSA program was the text of Sen. Russ Feingold's blistering response to the president's radio address.)

Pelosi's full statement after the jump.

1. More detailed local coverage of Sen. Conrad Burns' legislative action on behalf of Jack Abramoff. The Hotline says: Dems think Burns would be a weaker opponent than other GOPers who could run, so they hope for a drum beat -- but not a cymbal crash -- of revelations.

2. Bob Novak's weekend string column has lots of good '08 stuff, including Scott Reed's hosting a McCain PAC fundraiser.

3. RedState likes the new crop of FEC nominees.

4. Turmoil in Dina Titus's NV Gov campaign. Campaign manager David Barnhart resigns. Per Jon Ralston's Flash: "Dina and I reached a mutual agreement to go in different directions. I am proud of the work we have done together and Dina leads her "Democratic" opponent in 8 straight independent polls. I have no doubt that Dina will be the next Governor of Nevada. I wish her the very best."

Iraq war dissident John Murtha, Democrat of Pennsylvania, has put pen to paper for a fundraising appeal, and Republicans say his timing is an insult to Iraqis who voted in yesterday's parliamentary election. They also accuse Dems of hypocrisy because Dems frequently accuse Republicans of politicizing the war.

Murtha's solicitation was distributed via e-mail by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In it, Murtha writes, "The Republican-led Congress has become an automatic stamp of approval for the policies of the Bush Administration, and has squashed any debate to find alternatives that might better serve the American people. Even worse,when representatives have offered opposing views, there have been vicious personal attacks on character."

"If we want Congress to once again be a place where open debate is supported and encouraged, then we need Democrats to regain the Majority in 2006."

"Click here to make a contribution of $25, $50, or more for a Democratic Majority."

National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Reynolds blasted back in a statement: "One day after millions of Iraqis lined up at polling places nationwide to cast their ballots in parliamentary elections, I am saddened to see my friend from Pennsylvania, John Murtha, turn his widely respected positions on the war in Iraq into a fundraising ploy for House Democrats." [MARC AMBINDER]

The other dozen or so Republicans who are thinking about a presidential run are aware of the expedited challenge to raise early money.

New York Governor George Pataki's political action committee hired Walter Ganzi, Jr., a fundraiser for George H.W. Bush. His chief professional money raiser is Cathy Blaney, considered one of the best in the party.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) has asked Dan Foley, a prominent Michigan businessman, to raise money for his PAC; he's also secured the commitment of Domino's Pizza founder Tom Monahan.

Former New York city mayor Rudy Giuliani stays in touch with major donors when he raises money for Republicans, but has not sought their commitments for a 2008 race, leading to speculation that if he runs, he will self-fund.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a former RNC chairman, knows every top operative in the party but has spent time recently tending to hurricane recovery efforts in his state.

Former Rep. Newt Gingrich is also on the circuit and would likely try to leverage the House GOP fundraising machine he created as Speaker. [MARC AMBINDER]

A National Journal article today assesses early 2008 donor prospecting by Republicans and concludes that Sen. John McCain is on track to be the fundraising nonpareil.

The article looks at McCain's emulation of the 2004 Bush model. The easy lesson: Bush had money to spare after he beat McCain in South Carolina. McCain's coffers were nearly empty. The self-funding Texas juggernaut outpaced McCain's reliance on public financing and matching funds.

If he runs in 2008, McCain is almost certain to opt out, according to several fundraisers close to the Senator.

A second reason he'd withdraw from the system he worked to preserve is that he knows he must raise enough money to keep pace with his likeliest general election opponent, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

If Clinton runs, Democrats expect her to blast through all existing records and raise at least as much as John Kerry did -- probably more.

Republicans with a barren store of post-primary cash would struggle to match the television ads Clinton's campaign would be certain to air in the months before the party conventions in late summer. The early cash could also give Clinton an enormous head start in building a general election field operation.

McCain and other GOPers running are determined not to let the advantage go unchallenged.

Longtime GOP fundraising poo-bah Sig Rogich, a McCain supporter, says that "at the end of the day, it's all about winning. People who participate in the process at the high level" -- and here he's talking about mega-donors -- "want to have the assurances that the candidate will do what it takes to win."

In other words: many fundraisers won't part with their money or their time if they don't think their candidate will have the resources down the line to beat Hillary.

The problem for McCain: as recently as 2003, he proposed to overhaul the matching fund formula for presidential primary campaigns. Yet he stands, in deciding to fully fund his next presidential campaign, to be accused of acting in bad faith. [MARC AMBINDER]

CA's a big state, and they've got some big stars. Of those we looked at back in '03, just one has yet to make a move for higher office. In fact, one of our stars won election to the House just last week. Looking ahead, a number of young Latino stars are on their way up in both parties, and nowhere will we hear more predictions that someone's moving up all the way to the White House. If a CAan makes it to fed office, they've got more political talent than average, and that should make for some exciting races in the future. [REID WILSON]

The New York Times' James Risen and Eric Lichtblau report that President Bush authorized the National Security Agency to covertly monitor the international calls and e-mails of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of U.S. residents.

Risen's article was delayed for a year, he reports, because the White House was worried about jeopardizing national security and begged the Times not to publish it.

While many details about the program remain secret, officials familiar with it said the N.S.A. eavesdropped without warrants on up to 500 people in the United States at any given time. The list changes as some names are added and others dropped, so the number monitored in this country may have reached into the thousands over the past three years, several officials said. Overseas, about 5,000 to 7,000 people suspected of terrorist ties are monitored at one time, according to those officials.

We hear that Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) has decided to part ways with Jack Abramoff-related money.... details forthcoming.

As recently as Tuesday, Burns aides their boss would not divest himself of the cash because he already spent it.

Here's an exclusive first look at tomorrow's National Journal insiders poll. Sen. George Allen and Sen. John McCain remain the top two contenders in the eyes of Republican insiders.

Democratic insiders rank NY Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton first, followed by VA Gov. Mark Warner.

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist dropped a few rungs -- he's number five now. MA Gov. Mitt Romney's status has risen. Warner displaced Ex-Sen. John Edwards for the second Dem slot. Sen. Clinton still got a whopping 76 first place votes. (MA Sen. John Kerry got zero, ranking eighth of ten.)

For the full analysis and those juicy blind comments, check out tomorrow's National Journal magazine.

On his Fox News program just moments ago, Neil Cavuto asked the MA Gov about his religion and whether Republican base voters, particularly evangelicals, would accept a Mormon nominee.

Here is Romney's response: "It seems to me that it's only the Democrats that apply a litmus test on religion. Republicans don't apply a litmus test on religion, particularly toward great faiths like my own.... I don't think religion has a role to play in politics [or] in public service. I certainly haven't found it playing a role in Massachusetts and I hope people in my party and the Democratic party choose individuals based on their capabilities and their values."

Tray.com reports and the FEC confirms that Michael Toner has been elected chairman of the Federal Election Commission, and Danny McDonald has been elected vice chair.

Toner, a former chief counsel to the RNC, was appointed by President Bush in 2002. He's well-liked by his colleagues on the commission and respected by the FEC's professional staff.

McDonald is an FEC veteran; he's been chair four times. His latest appointment came courtesy of President Clinton in 2000.

Once again, the rising stars are in a holding pattern, just waiting for their chance to jump up. Two top Dem stars are running against each other for AG, and the winner will run into one of the GOP's up-and-comers. GOPers avoided a primary of their own in that race, but the state party is full of lawyers itching to run for something. Once a few Congressmen decide to retire, look for some of these names to be the new blood on a plane to DC. And with the caliber of the GOP's next generation, Dems may have a difficult time holding on to the three seats currently in their hands. [REID WILSON]

The RNC's Brian Jones responds via statement to our reporting on John Kerry's impeachment "joke.:

Jones: "With his impeachment advocacy last night, John Kerry once again showed how out of touch he is with American people and how in step he is with the far left fringes of the Democrat party. For one of the leaders of the Democrat party to begin a push for presidential impeachment, in seriousness or jest, on the eve of the Iraq elections is both foolish and shortsighted."

OK Rep. Tom Cole, a former RNC executive director, is telling colleagues that Republicans can prevent losses in the 2006 midterm elections if they successfully define Democrats as carping critics who favor surrender in Iraq, higher taxes and more government spending.

In a memo he plans to send to House Republicans later today, Cole, who wants to join the caucus leadership next year as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, writes bluntly that Democrats could win seats in the House next November,, and that "history suggests we face an uphill battle next year."

"I believe our voters respond best when they think everything is on the line -- and our House majority is on the line in each and every election that we fight," Cole writes.

Cole suggests stirring up "a little paranoia" among Republican base voters to motivate them to vote.

"I cannot make this point strongly enough. There are no inevitable victories in politics and complacency is the precursor of defeat."

Cole's prescription: Force Democrats "to defend the solutions they are offering to the American people -- higher taxes and bigger government at home combined with defeat and retreat abroad. Since they won't spell out their agenda to the American people we must do it for them." {MARC AMBINDER]

Full memo after the jump.

Was Jack Abramoff "giving money to both political parties," as President Bush suggested yesterday? No.

The lobbyist himself was a Bush Pioneer and directly wrote more than 200K in checks from '92 to '05 to Republicans. Abramoff never gave a penny to Democrats or Democratic committees.

True -- he encouraged or "directed," as the Washington Post says, his clients to give generously to politicians of parties, which they did. And several associates who worked closely with Abramoff were, indeed, "equal money dispenser[s]" as Bush said.

But not Abramoff himself.

will all convene in the Oval shortly for a joint news conference. They'll announce an agreement on McCain's torture amendment to defense approps.

John Sherman, the long-time treasurer for Sen. George Allen's Good Government for America political action committee, has resigned.

According to three Republicans close to Allen, Sherman is retiring from his day job as vice chairman of the Virginia-based investment firm of Scott and Stringfellow.

One GOPer who knows Sherman says he wants to spend more time in Montana, where he has a home. Sherman is reducing the scope of all his political and business activities and didn't want to guide the PAC's finances full-time. He'll continue to advise Allen informally. An Allen aide says the PAC will soon have a new treasurer.

Good Government for America had $218K on hand when it last reported to the FEC. Two interesting donors: Bushie/Texan Bob Perry, the Texas homebuilder who helped to fund the Swift Boat ads, and J. Willard Marriott, whose family founded the hotel chain.)

Allen's spent more time this calendar year raising money for his Senate re-election account. [MARC AMBINDER]

A month ago, all the rage in the pundit world was "when will Cong. GOPers start distancing themselves from Pres. Bush?" Fast forward a month, and it appears Bush is the one searching for distance.

-- The latest Diageo/Hotline poll finds Bush with his first post-Katrina job rating in the 50s (50% to be exact). Meanwhile, Congress' job rating hit another low. Are these numbers an outlier or part of the trend? Consider, we were in the field Monday and Tuesday, probably as good of earned media days Bush has had in months.

-- Bush's movement up is thanks mostly to GOPers coming home, while Congress' strong move down is, well, thanks to more GOPers disapproving (54%).

-- Beyond Bush and Congress, however, is possibly the biggest question in our survey. Which issue should Congress tackle first in '06: Iraq or rebuilding the Gulf Coast? By a landslide, the public wants the Gulf Coast rebuilt (58-28%). However, it's worth noting that self-I.D. GOPers picked Iraq (46-37%). Is this a reflection of message discipline among GOPers who are more apt to side with whatever Bush is talking about as the country's top priority?

More details after the jump.

MA. Sen. John Kerry said last night that if Dems retake the House, there's a "solid case" to bring "articles of impeachment" against President Bush for allegedly misleading the country about pre-war intelligence, according to several Dems who attended.

Kerry was speaking at a holiday party for alumni of his WH '04 bid.

About 100 campaign vets gathered at Finn McCool's bar in D.C. to hear him. In a short speech, Kerry praised Dems who were working on Senate and House campaigns, and then said, according to one listener: "If we take back the House, there's a solid case to bring articles of impeachment against this president." Another listener heard a slight variation: "If we win back the House, I think we have a pretty solid case to bring articles of impeachment against this President." Kerry then quickly added, according to several in the audience, "Don't tell anyone I said that."

Kerry Comm. Dir. David Wade, in an email, said his boss was joking. [MARC AMBINDER]

Some MT and national Dems have a theory about why Sen. Conrad Burns (R) won't return the tens of thousands donated to him by Jack Abramoff and associates.

They speculate that Burns wants to preserve his campaign kitty because he's going to step down.

Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) would then announce he's running for Senate. And Dems worry that Rehberg would be a stronger candidate against either state senate pres. Jon Tester (D) or state auditor John Morrison (D).

A new Diageo/Hotline poll shows that among regis. voters, Pres. Bush's approval rating is at 50%, up from 39% last month. 47% currently disapprove.

Meanwhile, Cong job approval is at 26%, down from 36% last month.

More numbers later in the day.

Former WI Sen. William Proxmire has died. He was 90.

The highlights of Brit Hume's interview with President Bush.

1. Bush said he delayed in making his case for Iraq because of Katrina. "During Katrina, it made it very difficult to talk about anything other than Katrina"

2. On Tom DeLay, this exchange:

Hume: Do you hope and expect that Tom DeLay to be majority leader?
President Bush: I hope that he will.

Hume: Do you believe he is innocent?
President Bush: DeLay? Yes, I do.

BTW: New NBC News/Wall Street Journal numbers suggest that the President's efforts to sell his Iraq vision are beginning to pay off.

Most Americans believe that troops should start coming home, but only 27 percent support an immediate withdrawal. Bush's approval rating is poor -- 39% -- but a higher number than those polled last time seem to believe that Iraq will end up as a success story. A bare majority is less confident . Also: Nearly 80% of Americans believe that both parties in Congress are ethically challenged.

First, Sen. John Cornyn's office sent out this ditty:

'Twas one month before the hearings, and all through the city
Not many Democrats were waiting, not even some on the Committee

The hard left was already distorting his rulings
Why wait for the hearings if you oppose all the President's doings?

Some Senators asked for privileged documents, no exception
So much for the "so-called" right to privacy protection.

From strip searches to abortion, "he's an extremist!" they wailed
But we've heard it before -- against Judge Roberts, it failed.

Of course the attacks will not turn the public
"Confirm him" they say, we want independent courts in our republic

We just received "A RETORT FROM THE OFFICE OF SENATOR SCHUMER"

'Twas a month after Miers, when all through the land, Went a plague of amnesia ‘bout how she was canned.

Now, Cornyn! Now, Sessions! Now Kyl and Frist!
Not one had some recall of how she was dissed.

They blathered and brayed about up-or-down votes,
They acted dismayed and gave virulent quotes.

They forgot how their own was battered and fried,
How an up-or-down vote on her was denied.

With her conservative views not patently clear,
They allowed a campaign of cynical smear.

On Alito, they say, he deserves confirmation,
But don't wait for the hearings, just accept coronation.

Don't ask if his views on the law are too cramped,
This substitute nom must be rubber-stamped.

So "advice and consent" gets thrown out the door,
When there's peace to be made with the right wing's hard core.

State Rep. Richard Raymond (D) won't challenge Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) in a primary, TX Dem sources tell the Hotline.

Ex-Rep. Martin Frost endorsed Raymond in 6/05, saying he would be the best candidate to defeat Cuellar, who was blasted by Dems and allies for his pro-CAFTA vote and his '00 endorsement of Pres. Bush over Al Gore.

Cuellar and Raymond both hail from Laredo, leaving them to battle over the same hometown base. Another potential Dem candidate is ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) whom Cuellar defeated in '04.

Rodriguez already has the support of many of his former colleagues, but redistricting carved out most of San Antonio from the district; the city is a stronghold for Rodriguez, making a successful campaign an uphill battle.

The Iowa blogger who alerted us to Mark Warner's Iowa scouting has posted a "clarification" on his blog, but we're not sure what he has to clarify. Here's his post, for the record.

"I saw this post on the Hotline on call website. I posted this in a hurry at work (like I am doing now) and now realize this could be read as a lot cooler than I intended. I was not contacted by the Warner camp. In Kevin Bacon terms, I would be 2 degrees removed. I was asked by somebody who knows someone from the Warner camp. Info has been forwarded though. I apologize to anyone who thought this implied a direct line to the Warner camp. I am fully aware now how quickly things move through the blogsphere and will be far more dilligent in wording my posts."

MA Gov. Mitt Romney has decided not to run for re-election. He will announce his decision tonight at 6:00 p.m. Aides stress he remains committed to his state and his agenda, which includes complicated and far-reaching health and education initiatives. As RGA chair in '06, he'll have plenty of time to travel across the country, prospecting for donors and earning chits with GOP elected officials and activists.[MARC AMBINDER]

Update: The Boston Globe fronts the AP's super-talented Glen Johnson, which is a nice irony.

Update II: The Commonwealth PAC, soon to be updated, but online at last.

Update III: The Mormon thing: ugliness already.

Update IV: Get in gear.

It's slipped off the Beltway radar screen, but election reform is alive and kicking, especially in the states. Advocates for more efficient, effective and accurate voting systems have reason to cheer.

Consider:

--two years ago, election officials were skeptical of voter-verified paper trails (VVPaT) for electronic machines. Today, according to the invaluable Electionline.org, 25 of them have written a VVPAT requirement into law. (And the big debate now is whether to count paper prints as official ballots during recounts.) In '04, paper trails were not required in Ohio, in '05, 41 of the state's counties mandated them, and by '06, all counties will have them.

--four Midwestern states agreed to cooperate to improve election administration and registration [MARC AMBINDER]

Of course, NBC's Lisa Myers and her investigative unit wouldn't reveal who provided them with the information, most of which is classified.

Here's how the piece begins. Myers: "A year ago, at a Quaker Meeting House in Lake Worth, Fla., a small group of activists met to plan a protest of military recruiting at local high schools. What they didn't know was that their meeting had come to the attention of the U.S. military. A secret 400-page Defense Department document obtained by NBC News lists the Lake Worth meeting as a "threat" and one of more than 1,500 "suspicious incidents" across the country over a recent 10-month period."

The story then cuts to a sound bite from NBC News "military analyst" Bill Arkin, an ex-Army intelligence officer with fantastic sources and a prejudice against unncessarily classified information. Arkin says: "I think Americans should be concerned that the military, in fact, has reached too far.'"

Who provided NBC News with the database? The story doesn't say.

But we can. Or, rather, Bill Arkin can. It was....

Part of an occasional series running in the Hotline, wherein we look at the rising stars of the American political establishment. Today: Arizona.

Arizona stars are in a holding pattern, waiting to see what happens when a number of seats open up. One, however, just did, and with the retirement of Rep. Jim Kolbe (R), one of our targeted stars wasted no time in jumping into the race. Dems have a lot of emerging talent in the growing Phoenix suburbs, while GOPers have some hot talent they're looking forward to testing in coming years throughout the state. But, as the older rising stars keep biding their time, newer ones are joining their ranks quickly. Here's one state where we could see a lot of divisive primaries -- on both sides. [REID WILSON]

The Fix's Chris Cillizza wrote yesterday about the RNC's pre-emptive strike against MoveOn, which will blanket vulnerable Republican congressional districts with petitions calling for an immediate end to Iraq. We've got the full RNC memo -- after the jump.

Not a surprise: VA Gov. Mark Warner is set to make his first stop in Iowa in either Jan. or Feb, and his Forward Together PAC is scouting out possibilities.

With superblogger Jerome Armstrong on staff, natch, they're looking to bloggers for assistance.

Blogger DemIowa writes: "He is planning on making a foray into Iowa in Jan/Feb and is looking for possible hosts. My understanding is the only requirements is it be open to the public and this time of year be able to host 20-30 people if lucky. (The closer to caucus the bigger the expected turn out.) If you, or anyone you know, might be interested just leave an email address or other contact information and I will forward it on."

IowaDem hastens to add: "By the way, I am not a Warner supporter at this time. I am curious to learn more about him. I just know someone who was asked to collect names of people in Iowa who might be willing to be a host." [MARC AMBINDER]

ABC News' George Stephanopoulous is traveling to IL 12/16 to interview for "This Week" Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth, who lost both her legs as a Black Hawk pilot in Iraq. She is expected to announce her candidacy on the show, which airs this Sunday -- a day before the IL filing deadline.

The race has national implications. DCCC Chmn. Rahm Emanuel (D), whose district borders IL 06, has been aggressively recruiting Duckworth for weeks as a plausible contender in Rep. Henry Hyde's (R) current IL 06 seat. But State Sen Peter Roskam (R), running unopposed for the GOP primary, is a polished candidate with strong ties to the district.

The district leans GOP, but Obama won easily here, and Bush only won with 53% of the vote in '04. Duckworth has been mum about her intentions to date because she's still on active military duty, and spokesperson Lori Goldberg said she couldn't comment about the race because she still was on active duty in the military.

The primary contest will pit her against technology consultant Christine Cegelis, who has close ties with the DuPage Co. Democratic party and won 44% of the vote against Hyde last cycle. Emanuel has been disappointed with Cegelis' lackluster 3rdQ fundraising, and ties between the two are cool. Cegelis has already told the Sun-Times she will make an issue of Duckworth's lack of ties to the district -- a likely theme of the primary campaign. Professor Lindy Scott is also running in the primary. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

UPDATE: Sources clarify that it's possible she will make her campaign announcement before the show's taping, so the "This Week' interview would not be an exclusive.

Update 2: A campaign source adds that while Duckworth will be on This Week she will not be volunteering a campaign announcement on the show. She is running for the seat, and will be making an announcement before Monday's filing deadline.

Arnie Arnesen says she sympathizes with the predicament of her boss, Great Eastern Radio LLC's Jeffrey Shapiro.

Yesterday, Shapiro told Arnesen that advertisers on Great Eastern's WTPL-FM were growing anxious about advertising on her show. Arnesen thinks the culprits are auto dealers, the staple of revenue for smaller stations.

For a year and a half, Arnesen has criticized the profusion of SUVs -- "gas guzzlers" -- which she jocularly labels "FU-Vs."

Arnesen is one year into a contract with the station. Shapiro can opt out, and Arnesen said he told her yesterday he can no longer afford to keep her.

"We have not had strong commercial support from the business community for the program," Shapiro said in an interview. "We are tired of carrying that costs without the support of advertisers in the business community."

Shapiro said he runs a small business and did not believe Arnesen's salary justified the revenue the station was generating, especially now that the company now shoulders the full burden of her contract. In November, two other radio stations carrying Arnesen's show dropped the program. How many listeners Arnesen attracts daily is unknown; it's hard to measure radio audiences in the state.

"It's not a politically motivated decision at all," Shapiro said.

"Jeff is doing what he needs to do," Arnesen said, "because he has to address the bottom line. If it is perceived by ad buyers that I am controversial, he needs to look at the reality."

"But that is why it is so difficult doing what I do."

What she has done is become "Arnie" -- a word with instant meaning across the state.

Arnesen, the Dem nominee for governor 1992, has hosted the state's most popular political talk show on-and-off since the late 1980s. A self-described "progressive" Dem, she's tipped the spear as NH has slowly turned blue (but remained the bastion of the Basses, Sununus and the Greggs.)

Her guests range from Ds to Rs, presidential candidates, lobbyists, local officials, company executives and activists. She palled around with ex-Rep. John Kasich during his brief presidential run. She's close to the Clintons but thinks New Hampshire would be Clinton's toughest presidential primary state.

Arnesen says her brand of talk is rare.

If you're liberal, she says, "You're either on an Air America, where you're talking to the converted. Or you're on Clear Channel which for the most part doesn't have anything like me. Or you're doing what I'm doing in a state New Hampshire where it's crucial."

If she's fired, Arnesen says, "it comes at the worst possible time."

For politics, she means: "There's another free-for-all on the horizon," referring to the 2008 presidential race.

As for her, "I'm like a yo-yo. They roll me out and they roll me back. And I just need to find a place to land."

Arnesen can still be seen nightly on WNDS-TV, which reaches most of NH and Mass.

Shapiro said he'd prefer to keep Arnie on the air. "I would like to see someone and belly up to the bar and provide some type of a stipend to Arnie to do the show."

But, he said: "If nobody is willing to do that, that tells me a lot too."[MARC AMBINDER]

CW says: yes.
Dante Scala says: eeeh. Not so much.

The ex-Dem gov candidate/ex NH state rep confirms to us via a a brief Instant Messenger interview that she's in danger of being booted from Bow-based WTPL 107.7 FM.

It's a big deal in the Hotline world; Arnesen is a major member of New Hampshire's famously active and sophisticated political press corps, beloved by NH Dems and respected by NH GOpers. Stopping by her show is a ritual for presidential hopefuls. She's at least as influential among New Hampshire progressives as the Union Leader's John DiStaso is among elites and national journalists. She's also close to NY Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

We'll have a full interview later, On Call.

If you want to listen to her live, click here.

Borrowing from Mickey Kaus: it's the On Call assignment desk.

Story: Could this be true? Arnie Arnesen off the air in NH? Because she said bad things about big cars and advertisers pressured the station?

Assigned to: Debbie Butler, Jenny Backus, Jimmy Pindell, Julie Teer, Pam Walsh, Bill Siroty and Colin V.O.

The AFL-CIO today launched its largest-ever non-election year campaign to sensitize vulnerable incumbents to labor's political message. It's also a new beginning of sorts for the AFL's political program. The AFL has reached a shaky truce with dissident unions to begin to plan for 2006 coordinated campaigns.

The "Who's On Our Side" effort begins with events in ten states where report cards grading local members of Congress on workers issues will be highlighted. The ten states are: MN, OH, PA, FL, WI, CO, IA, MO, MD and MT.

Our friend Chris Cillizza hears, as we do, that the following GOPers are targeted: Burns, DeWine, Santorum, Talent, Green, Harris, Kennedy, Beauprez, Nussle, Steele and Erhlich.

In VA today, we're told that Sen. George Allen spent some quality time with President George W. Bush. About 20 minutes, apparently. The duo were later joined by Rep. Tom Davis.

During our 2003 series, "The Lost Election," we wanted to know who The Hotline would be writing about two, five, even 10 years down the road. So we took a look at some rising stars in every state from both parties. Excluded from the list are current members of Congress and most big-city mayors as we view those folks as already attaining some form of national stardom.

Relying on interviews with consultants, state party officials and journalists familiar with each state's political landscape, we've done our best to update our list and survey each state party's bench going in to the '06 cycle, the '08 cycle and beyond. Today: Alabama and Alaska. [REID WILSON]

The Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll suggests that Republican and Democratic base votes are divided on the type of candidate their party should field in 2008. The results suggest there is a strong pragmatic center in both parties that wishes to downplay cultural, social and moral issues.

A full 59% of Republicans surveyed would favor a candidate who either downplayed (or did not hold) conservative positions on moral issues.

The poll asked whether Republicans would prefer:

(A) A candidate who is a strong conservative, who emphasizes social cultural issues, and is pro-life and opposes gay marriage -- 33 percent

(B) A candidate who is a strong conservative focusing on business and tax issues, and who favors conservative positions on social and cultural issues, but does not emphasize them; -- 30 percent

(C) A candidate who focuses on a strong national defense and projecting American influence around the world, and who favors conservative positions on social and cultural issues, but does not emphasize them -- 29 percent.

With the '05 elections behind us and the '06 cycle not quite in full swing, we thought we'd offer to our campaign rally-missing readers (pretty much all of you, we'd hope) a little something to tide ya over. So we dispatched one of our Special Hotline Foreign Correspondents to witness the nomination of Felipe Calderon as the National Action Party's (PAN) candidate to succeed President Vicente Fox at a rally in Mexico City earlier this month. He filed this report on the sights and sounds of a campaign rally south of the border

We'll leave it to others to debate the merits of Amtrak, but this story from yesterday's NYT could be important for reasons that have nothing to do with the wisdom and/or feasibilty of a quasi-public nat'l passanger rail service.

Note especially these two 'grafs:

"Mr. Knollenberg, a seven-term congressman, is one beneficiary. In the 1998 and 2000 elections, employees at Soave Enterprises were his second-largest contributor, beating out major companies like General Motors, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Mr. Knollenberg has received roughly $46,000 from Mr. Soave, his family and employees at Soave Enterprises since 1997, according to PoliticalMoneyLine, which tracks campaign finance. He also said Mr. Soave had helped him raise money."

Could the eye-popping case of the Dirty Duke milking his seat on the Approrprations Cmte, along with the parallel Abramoff case, portend a new era of more aggressive scrutiny of what had previously been "business as usual" between Members and lobbyists/contractors in the appropriations process? In "business as usual" we mean to practice of lobbyists and the contractors and PACs they represent giving generously to the campaigns and leadership PACs of Members who obtain earmarks for them. Members will, perhaps fairly, point out that there is nothing nefarious -- and certainly nothing corrupt -- about their efforts to include language in spending bills that will redound to the benefit of what are often some of the largest employers in their districts. But don't be surprised to see an aroused DC press corps sniff out more "connect-the-dots" stories like the above where the words "Knollenberg" and "Soave" can easily be replaced by any number of Members and donors.

An updated post with lots more names...

Jonathan Epstein, who served as John Kerry's IA field director, now manages the MD Gov campaign of Martin O'Malley. Kerry's IA pol. dir. Mike Malaise is helping ex-Rep Nick Lampson run for Tom DeLay's house seat. Kerry field opper David Barnhart is managing NV Gov candidate Dina Titus's campaign.

Ex-Sen. John Edwards' '04 IA campaign has bequeathed a large and talented cadre of operatives. Field director Jennifer O'Malley, who got her start working young colleage Gore-ites in NH in '00, is now the campaign manager for Rep. Jim Davis's FL Gov campaign. Another vet of the IA campaign, deputy pol. dir. Patrick Dillon, is campaign manager for IA Sec/State Chet Culver's gubernatorial race. Edwards field staffer Jen Jinks is the DGA's dep. pol. dir.

Ex-Sen. Bob Graham's Iowa mgr, Jessica Vanden Berg, is helming the Senate campaign of Amy Klobuchar in MN. Klobuchar's comm. dir, Franny Starkey, was a key part of Howard Dean's IA team. Katie Jack, a Graham field staffer, is one of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's personal travel aides.

Dean's deputy IA mgr. Matt Paul is running Mike Blouin's IA gov campaign now. Dan Chavez, IA Hispanic field dir. for Dean, is deputy campaign mgr for CA Gov candidate Phil Angelides. Kerry pol. staffer John Liipfert is trip director for Angelides. Edwards field operative Brian Brokaw is a spokesperson for Angelides. Dean's IA tracking dir. Andrew Baumann is now research dir. for Sen. Kent Conrad (R-ND)

Finally, Grant Woodard was Kerry's Iowa driver, and is now pres. of College Dems of America.

Ex-Rep. Dick Gephardt's IA mgr, John Lapp, is the exec. dir. of the DCCC. Bill Burton, Lapp's comm. dir. in IA is now his comm. dir. at the DCCC. Who are we missing? E-mail us with additions.

Congrats to ABC News' George Stephanopoulos, who's just been promoted to Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News. He'll keep the show and cover Congress and politics, to boot.

From an e-mail sent by ABC News prexy David Westin to staffers just moments ago:

"As he begins his tenth year at ABC News, I am pleased to announce that George Stephanopoulos will add to his anchoring duties the new responsibility of being our Chief Washington Correspondent. George will continue to anchor This Week, and now will also oversee our congressional coverage, reporting on the top political and policy stories of the day for all platforms including World News Tonight, Nightline, Good Morning America, dotcom, and News Now.

George's strong reporting and keen insight have become very important to our Washington Bureau and to the entire division.

Coming off the best November sweep for "This Week" in three years, I'm pleased to make this announcement at a time of progress and growth for the program. Please join me in congratulating George.

The Supreme Court's decision to review TX's redistricting plan marks another setback for DeLay, who's already fending off legal troubles. But if the redistricting somehow was invalidated, DeLay ould have a somewhat easier reelection campaign. The 2003 plan placed some Democratic precincts into DeLay's strongly Republican district. So what benefited most TX GOPers in '04 might help Dem ex-Rep. Nick Lampson in '06. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

No sooner had the DNC announced its plan to approve adding one or two caucuses between Iowa and New Hampshire than Commission member Mike Stratton (who is close to NM WH '08er Bill Richardson and has successfully managed campaigns in CO) was singing the praises of Nevada. Stratton said Nevada, which is among a few other Western states under consideration, is the "likely choice" for the new calendar addition. And as it turns out, the case for Nevada won't be that hard for Stratton to make. The following is a list of reasons Nevada is emerging as the obvious choice for the January '08 caucus: [NORA McALVANAH]

From House Race Hotline:

Christmas arrived early for Peggy Lamm (D), who received one of EMILY's List's five House endorsements this week. But what's good for Lamm might not be beneficial for the party in CO 07. She trailed ex-State Sen Ed Perlmutter (D), her primary rival, by more than $138K in 3rdQ CoH. And Perlmutter secured key labor endorsements early on, including snagging the SEIU's support. The endorsement should help close the fundraising gap by giving her access to money upwards of $100K. It could also expose a split between the party's labor and feminist wings.

The campaign is being fought in one of the most competitive House districts, and Dems can't afford to have the eventual nominee weakened by a nasty intraparty skirmish. The late primary in CO, scheduled for 8/8/06, gives the campaigns much time to attack each other in a race that has turned negative early. This seat was originally created for Dems -- John Kerry won by 3 points in '04 -- but they have failed in their first two tries. Will the third time be a charm, or will they miss another opportunity in this favorable district? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

President Bush spoke today at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia today about the Iraq and the War on Terror. One notable difference between this speech and his previous ones? He took questions from the audience, including a hostile question from someone questioning his previously stated connections between 9-11 and the war in Iraq. You have to wonder -- is there more of this to come? BTW: the AP bulletined Bush's contention that 30,000 Iraqis had died since the war began.[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

In advance of '06, all the 'Gang of Six' -- the NRCC, NRSC, DNC, RNC, DSCC and DCCC are aggresively soliciting donations over the telephone.

A MA Democrat relays this tale to us: "I just got a call from the DCCC asking me for money. The nice woman, clearly calling from a phone bank (lots of background noise) and clearly reading off a script (lots of 'ums') told me first 'this call may be recorded.' She then launched into her script: 'The DCCC is getting ready for the 2006 elections. But, the Republicans are already $60 million ahead in fundraising.' She continued 'The Democrats only need to pick up 16 seats this cycle' and asked me for a $100 contribution. I said I couldn't give $100, and she said 'That's ok, that's our top level. How about $25?' When I said I couldn't do that, she asked me 'What level would I feel comfortable at -- maybe $10, at some point over the next three weeks.' I said she could send me something, she confirmed my address, and said thank you." [MARC AMBINDER]

Big news: The U.S. Supreme Court today said it will hear arguments about the constitutionality of the mid-decade Texas redistricting that's caused Rep. Tom DeLay so much trouble.

Ex-DOJ atty Marty Lederman writes on an election law listserve: "Those four appear to raise many if not all of the key issues, including whether the Court can fashion a standard for judging when partisan gerrymandering is excessive."

The SC Gov says he "absolutely" won't run.

Buzz words: "results matter" "tax reform" referring to himself in the third person

Life lessons learned: lived the American dream; perseverance through failure; A Dem can raise taxes if he's honest about it

Narrative structure: How did we win in VA? I'll tell you. But first, I'll tell you about myself. Out of college, raised money for the DNC. Went into business. Failed a few times. Co-founded Nextel; tells his cell phone joke. Political history. Ran for governor. Virginia and Florida are similar. South Florida = Northern Virginia. The rural strategy. Economic hope and opportunity. NASCAR, bluegrass, and guns. And then Tim Kaine won. Why? Results matter. We changed the way the government operates. And so we raised taxes (but called it "tax reform") And our economy improved. And we're the best managed state in the US. High school, education and vocational diplomas. Economic development. Rural broadband development. Results matter. 9/11. War. Iraq. India, China, enter in to the workforce. The future versus the past. Washington is stuck in the past. Schiavo. Health care. Stem cell research. The historic inflection point. Virginians like the way the Democrats govern. What do Dems do? We're crazy if we put up candidates and ideas that are only competitive in 16 states. The President has missed opportunities to call on us as Americans to be at our best. Enormous challenges. But Dems are the party to face them. If we come up with a positive agenda. Dems' core values we must stress.

Red meat: "I was a state party chair in Virginia. . . . " "Thank god for the student loan program." "We were going to have an honest discussion about what people wanted from government and what they were willing to pay." "People are so ready for someone to tell them the truth without political spin." "Washington has become the land that time stood still." "We've got an administration that has a foreign policy that has undermined America's stature in the world."

Closing thoughts: "if you think the changes of the last 10 years economically, culturally or technology have been significant, you haven't seen anything like the change that's going to come during the next 10 years."

Reaction from journalists/Dem strategists: for a guy two years away from a presidential bid, he has a darn good message

Audience reaction: the only featured meal speaker to get a standing ovation upon introduction. And during the speech.

Staffed by: Mo Elliethee and Jerome Armstrong.

WALT DISNEY WORLD, FL -- Democrats in Florida hope chair Karen Thurman and new executive director Luis Navarro will finally build them their box.

Years of electoral defeats, financial troubles and accounting snafus, confused messages and barely functioning county organizations have left the party toothless in many campaigns. GOP redistricting dumped several Dems, Thurman included, from formerly safe seats.

"We like to think outside the box," says Steve Schale, a party official who coordinates state house campaigns. "We just don't have the box."

Thurman's old district, Florida's 5th is evidence: The party can't find candidates for state house seats.

"When we do go to run in those places, we literally have to build from the ground up," says Schale.

Thurman's tenure has generated some hope. She consolidated the state House and state Senate financial and political operations under the roof of the FL party -- they hadn't been since 1996 because, says Schale, no one trusted the state party to coordinate them.

To boost the party's perception in not-so-friendly areas, Thurman encourages statewide elected officials and members of Congress to travel the length of the state, showcasing Democratic talent to voters ordinarily turned off from both parties.

In many Florida counties, new voters are more likely to register as an independent than as a D or an R.

"We will not win unless we figure out to broaden the Democratic message in my county," says Janna DeMarta Cooper, a state committeewoman from Citrus Co.

One culprit is the centralized, county-level executive committee structure.

Dick Batchelor, a Democratic consultant from Central Florida, says he has a list of 450 voters who'd love to participate in Democratic politics but don't feel comfortable with the local executive committees. The perception is they are hidebound and controlled by interest groups, he says.

Democrats say that the party leadership for years was conditioned to depend on big turnout from voters in Broward, Palm and Miami-Dade counties and largely ignored Florida north of Orlando. But during the past ten years, the 1,000 folks a day who settle in FL have built homes in the suburbs and exurbs of Orlando, the Panhandle, Tampa, and around Jacksonville. Already weak DECs could not keep pace. The state lost the governor's mansion, most statewide elected offices, more than a dozen seats in the state legislature and many urban mayoralties.

Thurman and Navarro, a former SEIU political director, are conscious that the 2,000 or so activists who make up the party's statewide structure are hungry to win.

One new feature at this year's Dem conference: break out sessions devoted to the mechanics of party building. (Not for nothing was a session on small donor fundraising held in the Nutcracker ball room and another on financial compliance held in Nutcracker 2.) Most of the two-hour mini seminars were standing room only.

Another promising sign for Dems: the party hopes to launch its 2006 coordinated campaign six months early -- in late 2005. [MARC AMBINDER]

Buzz words: "leadership" -- "an idea known as America" "We're not going to settle any more." The "party of opportunity."

Life lessons learned: How he, as a family man, church-going man, law school professor, civil rights activist, learned not to be cynical.

Narrative structure: Effusive praise for Florida's congressional delegation and Bill Nelson; challenges America faces; challenges he faced as a first-time state senate candidate who people called "Alabama" or "Yo mama"; understanding cynicism, but overcoming it because a 105 year old African American woman introduced herself on election eve, 2004, a woman who preserved through hardship and believed in progress and the idea of America; today, our faith has been shaken by war and terror, man-made disasters and natural disasters, scandals and corruption; this government is timid and small; citizens must remind the government that they care about these things; Katrina; families across America are one diagnosis away from their "own Katrina"; GM, Ford, job loss; no energy strategy; the back-breaking costs of health care; Congress's priorities are out of whack; doesn't think that George Bush is a bad man [the audience disagrees] and thinks he loves his country. What Obama thinks is that the Bush team doesn't believe in government. They believe in the ownership society. Or, social Darwinism. But we (Dems) have a different philosophy. We believe in leading. And in sharing. And in mutual responsibility. Time to put aside our party identity crisis. Dems are the party of new frontiers and bold horizons. The party of opportunity. The party of the future. The story of Mariah and her simple dream to not sew for a living like her mother. Dick Durbin, Barack Obama and progress in Southern Illinois. Quotes Dr. Martin Luther King.

Red meat: "We don't see the kind of leadership that will give us faith." "We have a government that has replaced debate and deliberation with talking points and spin." Mentions Bobby Kennedy; "We remember, in 2000, when George Bush said he doesn't believe in nation building. We just didn't know he was talking about this nation." "The other party has a monopoly on the tough, dumb foreign policy." "We are going to fight tooth and nail, inch by inch, across this state to make sure the future of this country is secure."

Sample audience reaction: "You're looking pretty good" [as a leader/potential presidential candidate.]

Journalist/Dem strategist reaction: A local FL reporter: "I just saw Barack Obama speak. That's something I can tell my grandkids one day."

Closing thoughts: " . . . looking out for each other and having a stake in each other's success . . ." "We're the party of Jefferson . . . . we're the party of Roosevelt . . . ."

Staffed by Comm. Dir. Robert Gibbs and Pol. Dir. Nate Tamarin.

This is the way the guy won his FL House seat, too.

Per a tipster:

"Both campaigns are spending a lot of money. But [Rep. Jim] Davis has been more visible, working the halls and parties, and shaking as many hands as he can. At a Planned Parenthood event tonight, Davis impressed everyone by showing up and working the room. State Sen. Rod Smith's staffers stood by stonefaced....and half an hour later, when Davis had left, Smith stopped by to make his appearance."

BTW: The big Smith talking point of the day: Our guy was a prosecutor. He's tougher than Davis. He'll peel off tough-on-crime independents.

BTW, part II: For Nathan Rudy, we're talking about the Florida gubernatorial race.

DNC commission member/Richardson strategist Michael Stratton, who has long advocated for Western representation in the early '08 calendar, has settled on a favorite state for inclusion, saying in an interview that Nevada is an "ideal" pick for a January caucus.

Commission Member/Edwards confidant Ed Turlington reinvigorated Stratton's fight for the West when he said at a previous DNC meeting that 10 states "qualify" for the commission's "diversity" standards because they have a minority population of 15 percent or more and a relatively small population of 5M residents or less.

Of those 10 states, Turlington mentioned four western states: CO, NM, AZ, and NV. But Stratton, a CO native, made the argument on 12/ 10 that NV is the "ideal" western pick. Stratton: "One that properly makes sense is Nevada. It's at February 14th right now so it's logical, they're already wanting to be in. They're a growing state with a growing Hispanic population."[NORA MCALVANAH]

Ex-MN Sen. Eugene McCarthy died today in Georgetown. The 1968 presidential candidate and early leader of civil rights movement was 89.

WALT DISNEY WORLD, FL -- National Dems are prospecting for potential donors in Orlando...

A convention hall monitor helpfully alerted reporters to a closed door reception for John Edwards' One America Committee. (But it's not a fundraiser...just a 'thank you' reception.)

And VA Gov. Mark Warner met privately with a group of Dem fundraisers and consultants, including ex-State Rep. Dick Batchelor and uber-donor Richard Swann. Also seen in the halls: Miami fundraiser Chris Korge. We can't confirm whether he also met with Warner.

A side note: Disney convention folks have a reputation for efficiency, but they economized too much when it came to broadcasting the names of some familiar Dems on the aforementioned conventional monitor.

Dems were invited to breakfast with "Tom Vilsak" and dine with "Barak Obama." [MARC AMBINDER]

Ex IA Dem Chair Jerry Crawford to Sen. Carl Levin: "In Iowa we're looking forward to you returning your skills full time to the Senate."

MI DemDebbie Dingell, when asked about the meeting's results: "There was a very clear message, 22 to 2 that the status quo was not okay...even Iowa."

Crawford briefly interrupted Dingell's interview at this point to hug her goodbye, prompting Dingell to note, "Michigan and Iowa hugged." [NORA MCALVANAH]

WALT DISNEY WORLD, FL -- Gubernatorial candidates Rep. Jim Davis and State Sen. Rod Smith are asked with increasingly frequency about their ticket-maktes.

Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times slyly suggests that Davis might choose Jimmy Morales, the ex-Dade County commissioner, who endorsed him yesterday. Just to be provocative, we'll throw out the name of Gwen Graham Logan, daughter of Sen. Bob and Adele Graham.

For Smith, perhaps State Sens. Nan Rich or Mandy Dawson.

Sen. Bill Nelson suggests that the two candidates choose each other...but we're not sure a two white-guy ticket in such a diverse state will play that well. [MARC AMBINDER]

While the commission recommended the changes in the 2008 calendar as a way of giving states with more "ethnically diverse" populations a role in the early nominating process, they did not identify or recommend any particular states for inclusion.

According to the commission's report, the decision of which states to include in the pre-window period will fall to the DNC's Rules and By Laws cmte, which is expected to meet in February. The primary commission report did recommend, however that in deciding which states to add that the rules cmte should account for "racial and ethnic diversity; regional diversity; and economic diversity including union density."

The reoprt also suggested that the rules cmte select the "appropriate date" for IA's lead off caucus but that the "date shall under no circumstances" be before 1/14/08. In an effort to avoid a fight with NH, DNC vet Harold Ickes motioned to include that the date be amended to 1/7/08 "effectively allowing" for NH to still have 7 days or more immediately preceding the date of the new caucus. Ickes suggested that IA begin on the 1/7/08, which would move NH up to 2/22/08 and still "give the commission running room" to move a state behind NH and IA and not be invading their respective "7 plus day statutes."

Cmsn member/GWU prof Spencer Overton responded to Ickes proposed amendment, saying he was "frankly uncomfortable" with the idea because it only served to reaffirm the privileged position of IA and NH. The Ickes amendment eventually failed, with 10 in favor and 17 opposed.

Similar efforts to amend the commission's report also failed at today's meeting, although a last minute proposed amendment by DNC Member Maria Echaveste caused the day's biggest fight. Echaveste proposed cutting out the pre-window period all together. After commission members including Sen. Carl Levin (MI), Sen. Blanche Lincoln (AR), Debbie Dingell, Don Fowler, and Donna Brazile all spoke in favor of Echaveste's idea of scraping IA and NH's status all together, other members of the panel visibly panicked. During the discussion, which dominated the majority of the meeting, many members cautioned against the "unintended consequences" of Echaveste's proposal. Cmsn chair David Price said the suggestion would in effect, "nullify our work." After even Echaveste admitted "a change like this at such a late stage" was unrealistic, her amendment failed 18-9.

As for the regular window period, the cmte recommended a proposal by Fowler and Ickes to stop "frontloading" by offering states incentives to agree to hold their primaries later in the process. The entire report eventually passed in cmte by a 23-2 vote, with NH's ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and ex-amb. Terry Shumaker voting in opposition. [NORA MCALVANAH]

Buzz words: "Emma Claire." "Jack." "Stand up with strength and backbone for what we believe in."

Life lessons learned: That he raised his children right. And that Americans want strength from its leaders.

Narrative device: starts by talking about wife Elizabeth's battle with cancer. ("She's doing terrific.") Transitions to leadership and Florida. And what Dems need to do. Fighting poverty. Katrina. Window of opportunity. Son of a mill worker. [Yep.]

Effect on audience: applause, laugh, applause, laugh, applause laugh. Constant energy.

Red meat: "We need to make sure that Judge Alito does not go on the United States Supreme Court." [Whoops: a heckler shouted, "Tell Bill Nelson that!"]

Reaction from journalists/Dem strategists: "First it was two Americas, now it's, 'we have an opportunity after Katrina."

Sample audience reaction: "I would have liked to see the [2004] ticket reversed" – George Burnham, Sewannee Co. tax collector.

Closing thoughts: "What we do as a national community matters."

The Hotline's Nora McAlvanah reports: A Democratic commission took the first step toward dramatically revising their nomination calender today, voting to recommend that the party add caucuses before New Hampshire's primary and suggesting that more be scheduled the week after.

Iowa's first in the nation caucus status survived, and its committee representatives declared victory.

But New Hampshire's worst fears were realized. The state still gets to hold the nation's first primary, but if the new calendar survives a vote of the rules and bylaws committee and the full DNC, its influence will almost certainly decline.

A last minute amendment by committee member Maria Echaveste to scrape the pre-window period only garnered nine votes, but it prompted the commission to debate the entire history and benefits and drawbacks of holding IA and NH first.

Iowa's two commission members, Roxanne Conlin and Jerry Crawford, called the vote a "great victory" for the states.

The two proposed a calendar that hold start with the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 14, followed by a caucus in a Western or southern swing state on Jan. 22, followed by NH on Jan. 29, and another caucus or primary on Feb. 2.

The rules and bylaws committee meets in mid-Feb to vote whether to forward the commission's proposals to the full Democratic National Committee.

So we ask: do candidates who might have thought about skipping IA now reconsider? Is IA even more important in terms of momentum and media expectations? Does this make it harder -- or easier -- for Vilsack to set expectations for IA if he runs? Will Mike Stratton's CO "caucus" be endorsed by the rules and bylaws committee? [MARC AMBINDER]

We asked IA Gov. Tom Vilsack this morning whether he endorsed proposals by the DNC calendar commission to add caucus states between IA and New Hampshire.

As he dodged the question, he seemed to suggest that IA's cautious, private lobbying won out over NH's public campaign. We had also asked, as part of a preface, whether Vilsack regretted not speaking up in public about proposed calendar changes.

"There are two ways to operate this process. You can be public about it and you can be very private about it," he said. IA chose the former. "In fact, I talked with the chairman [Howard Dean] last night."

As for the proposals themselves, he had this to say: "[If you look at] comments from those who are watching this process, Iowa has done very good. Today, you will find that Iowa was number one at the beginning and will be number one at the end."

New Hampshire Dem Chair Kathy Sullivan just issued a statement, which reads, in full: "Frontloading the calendar with new caucuses would make the process narrower and less democratic, and it would be a huge
setback to Democrats' efforts to carry Iowa and New Hampshire
in the future."

"Specifically, starting the nomination calendar with a series of
caucuses - which sometimes have total turnout of less than 1%
of all voters -- would be an unprecedented shift of power away
from the grassroots and into the hands of the party establishment."

"Adding new caucuses ahead of New Hampshire would diminish the
unscripted, face-to-face grassroots campaigning that has been the
trademark of the first in the nation primary for generations."

"Finally, Iowa and New Hampshire are two of the closest swing states
in the country. Frankly, the national Democratic Party would be crazy
to try to strip key swing states of something that is so important to their heritage."

"By failing to find consensus, this commission has opened the door to a long, messy process that will damage key swing states, our national
party as a whole, and our next nominee. We know that Democrats will
not stand for any plan that takes power away from the grassroots, as
this does, and we look forward to working with the DNC and democratic
activists to reverse this mistake." [MARC AMBINDER]

The generic ballot and its accuracy have been discussed a great deal, but rarely studied. In the true spirit of Margin For Error, (The Hotline's weekly feature for subscribers that goes inside the numbers) we are looking to spark a debate.

The buzz surrounding the generic ballot numbers has reached a fever pitch of late, largely due to the enthusiasm of the Dems since polls have consistently shown them with a sizeable lead. Keeping in mind that this is 10 months before the '06 midterm elections, it is worth asking, how much predictive value do generic ballots hold? Looking at the average generic ballot results from two weeks prior to Election Day, and also looking at the average generic ballot 10-11 months before Election Day, how do these translate into real results? Much to the chagrin of Dems, the transition is not always a smooth one. [AOIFE McCARTHY]

WALT DISNEY WORLD, FL -- According to strategists here, the biggest Dem names yet to endorse in the FL gov race: ex-Attorney General Janet Reno and the two Meeks -- Rep. Kendrick and ex-Rep. Carrie.

(Forget an earlier post that suggested the South Floridian Meeks are from North Florida. Whoopsie.)

Davis today will pick up the endorsement of GA Rep. John Lewis, a legendary civil rights leader.

One note on IA Gov. Tom Vilsack. Longtime Vilsack watcher Tom Beaumont of the Des Moines Register tells us that although Vilsack's national stump speech has incorporated elements of his early life, he never before has spoken about his birth mother in such stark terms. [MARC AMBINDER]

While much will be made out of George Allen's football ties during his 2008 presidential run, he won't be the only candidate with a sports "in." MA Gov. Mitt Romney's going to be baseball's candidate. Romney's son, Tagg, is the new "chief marketing officer" for the L.A. Dodgers. The Dodgers are owned by Boston businessman Frank McCourt so clearly the McCourts and Romneys have known each for a while.

Tagg Romney managed his father's successful '02 MA GOV campaign. Personally, as Dodger fans, we can't wait for presidential bobblehead night at Dodger Stadium.

BTW, the names "Mitt" and "Tagg" aren't exactly common red America names. Is the Republican Party ready for this much blue blood? Of course, it's not as if the Bush family doesn't have just a tad bit of blue in their blood as well but the current occupant of the WH does everything he can to hide that blue blood. [CHUCK TODD]

REEDY CREEK IMPROVEMENT DISTRICT -- Walt Disney World is a quasi-independent city spanning Orange and Osceola Counties in Florida. Its daily population often exceeds 35,000. For obvious reasons, security is a priority.

The outer layer is comprised of generally friendly college kids dressed in Disney greens and blues. Their only accoutrements are keyless key chains hanging off their belts. These folks circulate in the lobby and greet guests, gingerly directing wayward guests from areas off-limits.

The second security platoon features middle aged men, usually a little paunchy, wearing Disney-style police uniforms complete with Mickey Mouse patrol patch and hat. They have two-way radios but (thankfully) no guns.

The third style themselves like special agents of the Secret Service. They're big guys with broad chests wearing dark suits. They have clear coil ear buds in their ears, leading presumably to their two-ways. And they have lapel pins -- American flags with gold Mickey Mouse heads in the middle.

The VIPs for the FL Dem conference were deemed dangerous enough to each warrant a squadron. last night, one stood guard outside a room where DNC chair Howard Dean was meeting with county chairs. Of course, the room was accessible from a side door and no one would have known Dean was in the room if there hadn't been an "agent" out front.

But no matter; these Disney guys have real experience with VIPs, often protecting the celebrities and numerous Saudi princes and princesses who take Disney vacations.

Disney is charging the FL Dem Party a small fortune for this convention, guard-age included. Some aides to candidates grumbled about the steep costs they're expected to help shoulder, but the party has no choice. Dems can only hold conventions at union shops, of which there are precious few in the state of FL. [MARC AMBINDER]

Buzz word: "community"

Life lessons learned: his birth mother believed in the American dream; 40 percent of kids today don't.

Narrative device: bookends speech by discussing his birth mother, who gave him for adoption, and his adoptive mother, who gave up drinking.

Effect on audience: quiet during the sad preface, receptive during the rest, quiet during the sad conclusion.

Red meat: "My first decision as president of the united state ... if I was the current president, is I would show Karl Rove the door."

Closing thoughts: "we are a great nation, and we should lead as a great nation. ... Our children deserve it. All of our America's children deserve it."

Reaction from journalists/Dem strategists: " ... very nuanced ... " ... "at first, I thought he would try to manipulate the audience, but it was actually quite powerful."

Audience reaction quote: "I thought he was great. He wasn't using a teleprompter or anything. I thought he was fantastic. With men like that, how could you lose?" -- Joyce Moody McGraw, state committeewoman from St. Lucie

Staffed by: BJ Thornberry and Dewey Square folks. [MARC AMBINDER]

Florida Democrats want a message to run on, and they are growing less patient without one.

That's one reason why DNC chairman Howard Dean, castigated by members of his party for churning its already mucky Iraq message, was given a rousing welcome Friday night.

He brought one, and to many, it sounded good.

Dean told the 2,000 activists and office-holders that they must stick to their guns and loudly, proudly proclaim Democratic values. He previewed the Democrats' national priorities, which the party plans to unveil in the middle of January.

"First, we must restore honesty and integrity to the government of the United States," he said, drawing the loudest applause of the night. "Number two, we must have a strong national defense based on telling the truth to our soldiers, our citizens, and our allies."

Third -- "We want jobs for America that stay in America." Fourth -- "We want health care for everyone." Fifth -- "balance the budget."

Dean said the key to winning elections for Democrats is to simply knock on doors and loudly, proudly, evangelize.

And he did not shy away from Iraq, delivering his version of the Center for America Progress consensus. (He did not change his position, having given this same speech many times before.)

The topical quip of the night award at the FL Dem convention goes to IA Gov Tom Vilsack, who joked in a speech that if Reggie Bush wins the Heisman trophy tomorrow, "it'll be the first election a Bush has won when all the votes are counted."

REEDY CREEK IMPROVEMENT DISTRICT, FL -- Florida Democrats have a hankering for IN Sen. Evan Bayh. He has quite a few Sunshine State fans. So there's some scuttling about his non-appearance at the conference this weekend.

There's also some confusion. At the Contemporary Hotel's Outer Rim bar overlooking the Magic Kingdom, one convention delegate remarked to her husband that she was excited to see Bayh in person. "You mean Vilsack?" "Yes."

Bayh's staff says he tried to fit the conference in his schedule but just couldn't make it. He's been to FL several times this year for PAC fundraisers and other events.

Meanwhile, a tipster ran into the Senator on a Continental Airlines flight from Washington, D.C. to Houston, TX this morning.

Bayh told our friend that he was headed to the exclusive Coronado Club to raise money for his PAC (about $45K), and also, Bayh said, to talk to folks about a potential 2008 run. (A memo Bayh was perusing on the plane contained biographical capsules of the Dem fundraisers he was meeting.)

Bayh is represented here in FL. Dem strategist/Vilsack friend Anita Dunn is at the convention all weekend helping client/gov candidate Jim Davis.[MARC AMBINDER]

Our earliest post suggesting that FL Gov candidate Rep. Jim Davis (D) is not seen by Washington Democrats as the most electable Dem running for governor prompted queries (including from Davis' communications director, Tait Sye, and his chief consultant, Anita Dunn) like -- why attribute such a collective opinion to such a large mass of people? And -- is it fair to make a blanket statement like that without giving any names?

Both good questions.

To phrase it more carefully: in the course of a normal day, we Hotline editors chat with many Dem consultants and strategists on background about races all across the country. From the 50,000 foot vantage point, most of these folks seem to believe that State Sen. Rod Smith would have a better shot in the general election because he performs better on the stump (he's a trial lawyer and more in-your-face-y), and since he and Davis aren't well known in Florida, first impressions will matter a lot. They also point to geography: Smith is from Alachua Co. in North Florida and Dems running statewide need to take conservative independent votes from Republicans. All of this fair? Probably not. Too early to make that judgment? Probably. Which is why THIS convention is important for Davis and Smith. The 2,000 Dems here will return home and spread around their impressions.

One person who acknowledges the common detraction is ex-Dade County Commissioner Jimmy Morales, who today endorsed Davis.

At a raucus rally held in a cramped entrance hall to the convention space, Morales, now the chair of Dade County's Democratic Executive Committee, noted that the rap on Davis from Dems was "the winnability issue." But, said Morales -- "You've probably all seen the polls." Davis is outperforming Smith and both GOPers, according to Quinnipiac. (One aside: some Dems and GOPers don't like Q-Pac's FL polls, but if folks on either side had private numbers that differed all that much, we'd hear about it. We haven't.)

Following Morales's introduction, Davis, wearing a blue shirt rolled up to his sleeves, satisfied the red meat cravings of his young volunteer corps. "You want me to talk with his bull horn," he asked at one point, holding up the device. "We're already had enough bull." and "This state does not belong to a particular party. It belongs to the people...and we're going to take it back."

Say what you will about Davis: he certainly out-entered Smith.

Smith entered the convention hall quietly, shook hands, and disappeared into a conference room. [MARC AMBINDER]

Seen in the halls of the Contemporary Hotel, one Jacob DiPietre, ex-press secretary for Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush. Turns out -- he works for Disney public affairs now, and he's the media liaison between Disney and the Fla Dem party staff.

So if the sound system suddenly fails....

On paper, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is well-represented in Florida. Also, on card stock. On cloth. On pins. And on tee-shirts. ("A Woman's Place Is In the White House -- Hillary 2008"). By contrast, we only saw one bumper stick pile that mentions Sen. John Kerry.

Plenty of creative posters poke fun at the president, including a "Queer Eye For The Stupid Guy" placard. There's plenty of even-less tasteful paraphernalia as well. (Plenty of elephant dung jokes.)

Rep. Jim Davis's campaign informed your blogger and Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times that the filter has officially been bypassed.

How? They're going to pass out "Davis Dailies" to convention delegates.

The first issue features Davis's schedule, a Davis delegate profile, a polling snapshot (they love Q-pac) and quotes from endorser Dems like ex-Sen. Bob Graham and Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Corrine Brown. [MARC AMBINDER]

Reedy Creek Improvement District, FL -- 2,000 Florida Democrats convene at Disney World today to take the measure of their 2006 candidate slate. The marquee events will give the faithful a chance to hear the early stump speeches of three presidential hopefuls -- Vilsack, Edwards and Warner -- to delight in the aura of Sen. Barack Obama -- and to see whether Howard Dean says something controversial.

For one of the party's gubernatorial candidates, State Sen. Rod Smith, the conference provides perhaps his best chance to convince party regulars that he makes a better general election candidate than the man most think will get the nomination, Rep. Jim Davis.

On a national level, many Dems would prefer that Smith be their nominee, but early polls suggest that Florida Democrats simply like Davis better. Both men don't have statewide bases, and both aren't well-known, so both face a tough challenge in whoever the Republicans nominate, be it AG Charlie Crist or state CFO Tom Gallagher. Smith is a better crowd rouser than Davis, and if Davis performs poorly when he speaks tomorrow, the currents in his favor now may shift a bit. Make no mistake: folks here care more about how you say what you say than what it is that you say. (Read it over several times.)

One sign that Smith is going all out: his reception tonight for activists features an open bar. Not too interesting, perhaps, but consider that Disney's convention folks will charge his campaign $6 per drink. (Want to go? Put on your Kerry-Edwards hat and join us outside the Fantasia bar in the lobby of the Contemporary Resort hotel from 7:30 to 10:30. If you mention this blog, we'll, uh, buy you a drink. We're wearing a blue shirt.)

Davis's reception is shorter and they won't pay for booze. And he'll also greet guests at the entrance to the Contemporary Resort's convention center at 3:30 pm ET today.

Oh by the way: our friend Adam Smith at the St. Pete Times has this word of caution for those who think this conference has been historically decisive: "Modern Florida history is loaded with Democratic candidates who looked strong at the state Democratic conference and wound up as political footnotes. People in 1989 who watched Orlando state Sen. George Stuart's slick video featuring rock singer Corey Hart's Never Surrender anthem say that for 10 minutes Stuart looked like a shoo-in to be governor."

Stay with this blog for updates from the convention, as well as the skinny from tomorrow's DNC primary calendar commission meeting. [MARC AMBINDER]

In what is a little payback for the all the help he provided in 2004, Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) details to National Journal's Kirk Victor all the help he's giving to Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) for his re-election.

"I am campaigning for him. I am raising money. We had a fundraiser in my condo -- we raised about $200,000." Specter admits, with Santorum's help, he would have lost the PA SEN '04 primary to Pat Toomey.

Jim Dean, that is, brother of Howard, head of Democracy for America.

Is petitioning against Joe Lieberman.

We're told the DNC chair has nothing to do with this and no comment on it, either,

"When you whine too much, you sometimes get whacked."

That's the reaction of a Democratic strategist with working knowledge of the DNC's nomination calendar commission when we asked what went in to producing its recommendations.

The strategist was referring to New Hampshire.

Knowledgable Democrats are spreading around the commission draft report containing propoals the commission is expected to vote on tomorrow. One plank re-affirms IA and NH's stati as the first caucus and first primary states, respectively. Another adds a caucus or two after Iowa but before New Hampshire. Another adds states after New Hampshire but before the "window" for other states traditionally opens. A third recommendation advises the rules and bylaws committee to choose the dates and states with an eye toward increasing demographic, eocnomic and geographic diversity.

And what about frontloading, which no one seems to want? Well, the draft suggests the rules and bylaws committee think about incentives to encourage states not to move up. A bonus delegate system, maybe. '

The upshot: Iowa's status as THE first state is preserved. New Hampshire might technically still be the first primary state, but for all intents and purposes, its mythical/fabled/traditional status as first in the nation is kaput. The commission has little to say about frontloading.

New Hampshire doesn't like what the commission is calling tonight a "compromise." It'll lobby the rules and bylaws committee; then they'll lobby the full DNC, a large minority of whom will follow the cues of DNC chairman Howard Dean.

He's remained publicly silent and told NH Dem chair Kathy Sullivan earlier this week that he certainly understands their frustration. But we're told that Dean is prepared to accept the commission's recommendations as it moves to the rules and bylaws committee, and that he would not stand in the way of either of these two proposals. (A DNC spokesman repeated Dean's vow not to comment until the recs are actually made.)

The nuclear option, should it come to it, is NH's deciding to change the date of its primary, either trying to piggyback with Iowa or going before it, perhaps in mid-week in early January of 2008.

New Hampshire has done itself no favors, according to several calendar commission members and Democratic strategists, by sharing their anger with the DNC in public and by giving lip service to the diversity concerns shared by many Dems.

But it's been no secret that many Dems have been itching for years to deprive NH of its status. And the simple fact that NH is always the "second" to go first -- Iowa really gets to go first -- made it that much easier to pick off.

The commission meets tomorrow in Washington, D.C. A vote is scheduled for late in the day. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Mobile Register today became what we think is the first major newspaper to call for Howard Dean to step down as DNC chair. Have others already done so? Let us know!

The Mark Warner groovy train continues...

In South Carolina last night, he was damned near endorsed by two of that state's most popular Dems.

"You are going to be one heck of a president," said former Gov. Jim Hodges, who lost his re-election bid to Republican Mark Sanford in 2002.

"I believe like the rest of you that we have a real winner here tonight," added former Democratic Gov. and U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings.

One other thing we like about ForwardTogetherPAC and the Warner universe: they don't pretend they aren't seriously thinking about running for president.

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) is the newsmaker today at the National Press Club, and he's chosen to once again enumerate the economic consequences of a potential Avian flu outbreak.

After a flurry of alarms by scientists and epidemiologists warning of disaster, some experts have pushed back, suggesting that the possibility of a deadly pandemic was minimal.

Frist is squarely in the former camp (even as he acknowledges the propensity to overhype.) He pressed the White House to request billions for emergency funding to prep for a pandemic, and they obliged. $7.1 billion was added to the defense appropriations bill.

Frist's remarks today are titled "Pandemic: the Economy's Silent Killer."

For him, an ounce of prevention might be worth billions. Excerpts after the jump.

....to raise at least 500K for his Straight Talk America PAC, Sen. Rick Santorum's campaign is promoting a video featuring highlights of McCain's recent appearance at two closed-door fundraisers. (When was the last time a campaign released video from a fundraiser?)

We wonder: Will McCain return to PA to campaign for Santorum? As in, publicly?

BTW: The Santorum folks have put together a helluva cool website, with lots of bells and whistles, fun widgets, and plenty of ways for you to either get your Rick fix. Santorum's e-campaign manager, Mindy Finn, is a veteran of the RNC's web operation.

Hotline contributor Brian Reich contributes this post:

What exactly is the role of the internet in American politics?

The 2004 cycle helped pull back the curtain on the potential for the web, and other technologies on campaigns -- with Governor Dean's blogging revolution, John Kerry's online fundraising success, and the Bush campaign's sophisticated online headquarters to cite the most obvious. But today a new study helps us to understand how the voters view the web in the context of politics.

The USC Center for the Digital Future released its Fifth Study of the Internet last night (report highlights are online at www.digitalcenter.org/2005). The focus of this year's report is "Major New Trends in Online Use for Political Campaigns."

The LA Daily News summarized it this way: "The Internet has become an increasingly valuable tool in political campaigns, with a growing number of users saying the technology is empowering their political decisions." They cited stats that show nearly 40 percent of Internet users said they feel that going online gives them more political clout -- up from 27 percent the year before, and 61.7 percent of respondents who said they agree that going online has become important for political campaigns.

The Daily Times of Pakistan quoted Jeffrey Cole, the director of the Center for Digital Future, as saying "The Internet will forever change the course and nature of American politics... The Internet is no longer a marginal force in American politics -- it is quickly becoming the central force in empowering voters."

The political operatives who wage their campaigns online still have a lot to do to meet the standards and expectations set out by the audience. But this study offers some new, valuable insight.

The Democracy Alliance, a network of wealthy liberal fundraisers and their intellectual gurus, billed itself as a fertile field for the type of deep root structure that Dems believe the conservative movement developed in the 1970s and 80s: rich foundations at the bottom, donating to candidate/activist training schools and to start-up media and to think tanks.

The result: tight discipline, common goals, shared tactics, aggresive reaction (and pre-action) to historical and political developments, and, in general, much more cohesion.

The DA's goal is nothing short of a revolution for liberals and their ideas.

The DA's prime mover is Rob Stein, a lawyer and ex-DNC chief of staff who spent years trying to unravel the strands of the conservative movement. Stein entered his conclusions into a Power Point presentation that presented the liberal to conservative organizational deficit in a way that stunned many of the party's top fundraisers.

(Long-time movement conservatives roll their eyes at the notion that they are as organized as Stein thinks they are and dismiss much of his work as paranoid liberal fantasy.)

No matter; it's been clear for years that conservatives, whether by accident or design or voter preference, do their organizing better than liberals. Stein believed he had figured out the 'why.'

So he took the presentation across the country and quickly convinced dozens of big-name Democratic donors that the way to revive American liberalism would be to copy the institutional structure that conservatives built.

Hence the DA, which quickly secured $80 million or so in seed money spread over five years.

But many DA donors are frustrated with the pace of the project. Stein agreed to relinquish day-to-day control; DAers say he was a poor manager, better at evangelizing than motivating employeers.

To replace him as CEO, the DA hired a partner from McKinsey and Co's San Francisco office -- Judy Wade - who has no political experience.

At the last DA meeting, held in Atlanta in October, the group moved forward on its plans to raise $250K each from 1,000 individuals over five years and wrote checks to groups like the Center for American Progress and to David Brock's Media Matters.

But CAP and Media Matters (and Air America) get money from other, non-DA sources too. And labor unions remain the financial engine of the Democratic Party. And the parties themselves are raising lots more than they use to. And in 2008, prospective presidential candidates will blow through state spending limits and might raise $1 billion between them.

So just how big a role it plays in the new liberal/progressive coalition is up for debate. [MARC AMBINDER]

BIPAC has argued for several cycles that the country remains in a flux, bounded by a few constants. There are roughly twice as many self-identified conservatives as liberals, and even more independents. There is no general tilt in the GOP's direction.

BIPAC's model suggests that voter preferences have shifted within this matrix and are more sophisticated than either party makes them out to be. For example: BIPAC's political guru Bernadette Budde acknowledged there are fewer GOP base voters who are resolutely anti-tax, and that suburban fiscal conservatives have demonstrated their willingness to vote for candidates who support tax increases so long as they're confident the money will be put to good use.

In part, Budde says the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina helped to push these preferences into the open.

That's not to say that voters don't generally prefer tax cuts, just that they are more willing to countenence them and less willing to punish lawmakers who support them in a careful, limited way.

BIPAC's election map is a mix of whites, reds, purples, reds, red/whites and blue/whites. And it illustrates their principle that the '06 elections are not neatly described as red versus blue.

Consider: there are only four states (TX, NV, OH and RI) where both the Gov and Senate incumbents are Republican. (Rhode Island being one of the allegedly 'bluest' states in the country.

-- There are three states where Dem incumbent governors and senators are up for election, including the "red" state of NM.

-- 12 states will feature Gov and Sen elections split between GOP and Dem incumbents.

-- 13 states have either a Gov or a Sen race where the GOP is the incumbent party.

-- 10 states have either a Gov or a Sen race where the Democratic Party's candidate is the incumbent. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Business and Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC), a potent force in Congressional and state elections, is warning both parties that voters are ready to nationalize the 2006 election and punish incumbents with unusual force next November.

But BIPAC is confident that what it calls a "pro-business, pro-growth" coalition will survive and may even be strengthened, even as immigration threatens to divide the traditionally pro-business GOP in primaries.

In a briefing for reporters today, BIPAC's president, Greg Casey, said the group will target elections in 30 states in 2006, helping employers communicate pro-business messages to employees and deploying field staff to turn out the investor class. They range from guberatorial races in a half dozen states to state legislative contests and state supreme court elections.

Though both Casey and his veteran political numbers cruncher, SVP Bernadette Budde, declined to project whether the GOP would retain control of both house of Congress, they acknowledged that voters have little to like about the governing party.

"If the business community does its job, there will probably be a pro-business, pro-growth [majority] in Congress regardless of which party is in control," Budde said.

BIPAC's top tier includes races in FL, PA, MN and OH, followed by WA, WI, NV, IA and TN.

The group plans to target Senate races in NJ, MD and WA, believing that the national mood will put those three states in play, even though the incumbents are Democrats.

"The fix-it revolution is going to take out people who didn't see it coming," said Budde.

She argues that in an atmosphere when voters deplore the rhetoric and tactics of both parties, voters pay much more attention to the attributes of individual candidates. And in an era when even small sub-interest groups (like environmenalists) can spend millions to influence races, previously safe seats are up for grabs. "A little can mean a lot," said Budde.

In the 2004 election, BIPAC spent millions to help employers communicate with workers, sending out 40 million targeted messages and deploying more than 75 field staff on election day. Compared to other interest groups and certainly to what organized labor did for Dems, that's relatively small.

But BIPAC likes to point out how voters say that information from their employer is at least as reliable as what they get from unions (and more so than either political party) and Republicans credit the group with revolutionizing the way employers leverage the votes of their employees. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Columbia State is reporting via a breaking news email that ex-Gov. Carroll Campbell (R) has passed away. He was 65.

The CA 48 House seat left vacant by now-SEC Chair Chris Cox (R) is no longer vacant. State Sen. John Campbell (R) defeated Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist (I) and Democrat Steve Young by a solid margin.

            Votes     Percent
Campbell   41,450      44.7%
Young      25,926      28
Gilchrist  23,237      25

If there was a mild surprise, it was that Young edged out Gilchrist for second. Gilchrist and his anti-immigration platform garnered a lion's share of the media coverage of this race. Gilchrist's disappointing third place finish could mean that those who care passionately about the immigration issue are a vocal minority, but they are just that, a minority. This is still a hot-button issue for GOP primaries in 2006 but will it be an issue that swings votes in general elections? That still remains to be seen. [CHUCK TODD]

In a letter sent to his colleagues today, NRCC Chair Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) said he'll stick with the campaign committee post, quashing rumors that he's hunting for a higher office in the Republican caucus.

"As your NRCC Chair, I am working everyday to build a lasting Republican Majority," Reynolds writes. "I committed myself to serve through the 2006 cycle as NRCC Chair and, in light of these rumors, want to assure you that I am keeping that commitment."

Reynolds was said by by friends to be considering a bid for majority leader or majority whip should the caucus hold elections to permanently replace Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) as majority leader.

In October, Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-TX) promised Republicans that if 50 members of the caucus asked for a meeting to consider a new leadership slate, he would schedule one. In that special meeting, a motion passed by half of the 230 GOPers in the House would trigger an election.

Temporary maj. leader/maj. whip Rep. Roy Blunt has told colleagues in recent weeks he is fine with the ad hoc arrangement and believes that an election would disrupt a busy start to the legislative year.

But he told journalists today he would not necessarily oppose elections should a large chunk of the caucus desire them, CongressDailyPM reported.

DeLay and his Hammer Team have lobbied collegues to stay the course, even as his Texas trial on money laundering threatens to last through the middle of February. A few House GOPers, like Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH), have gone public with their desire to see DeLay replaced, but most seem to miss his effectiveness as leader.

Others who want to move up in the party ranks include Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ), Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) and Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN).

Reynolds' letter suggests that he is putting his reputation on the line to keep the Republicans in the majority. Should Republicans gain seats or keep their comfortable majority, Reynolds would be in good shape to run for a higher leadership post in '07. (Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) would almost certainly succeed him as NRCC chair.) [MARC AMBINDER]

Hoping to secure the much-needed support of caucus moderates to get the president's tax cuts extended before the end of the year, the WH is deploying Treas Sec. John Snow to address the weekly luncheon tomorrow of the House GOP's chief moderate org., The Tuesday Group.

Snow's trip up Penn Ave comes in the wake of grumbling about the Treas Sec. by some congressional GOP leaders at last week's bicameral retreat.

But after Snow pushes the mod's to keep the tax cuts in place, the group will hear from MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R), whose priority, it is safe to assume, will be more in capital construction investments than capital gains cuts. (And he might weigh on efforts to take away post-Katrina tax breaks from gaming interests.)

Such is the dilemma GOPers face in governing.

Ex-NC Sen. John Edwards is in talks to help a powerful labor union launch a nationwide campaign to organize hotel workers, labor sources tell The Hotline.

UniteHere represents more than 440,000 active hotel workers, retail employees, laundry workers, restaurant, food service and gaming employees. Its officers are fans of Edwards.

Before it merged with the hotel union HERE in 2003, UNITE, a textiles union, endorsed him for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Unions' economic might has waned, but they remain influential in the Democratic Party. Labor dues still fund most of the Democratic Party's GOTV efforts and its field campaigns.

Many Dem politicians and office-seekers and the party's leading lights often appear at union events and issue press releases promoting labor rights. Some souls even join the occasional picket line.

But Edwards, who has kept an unusually active profile for a former Senator, is showing labor leaders that he'll back up his own pro-labor words with meaningful action.

Earlier this year, UniteHere left the AFL-CIO to help found a dissident umbrella group, the Change To Win coalition.

55 percent of UniteHere's budget is slated for organizing, and the union now has campaigns underway at Cintas, Hilton and several gaming companies. Most of the major casinos on the Las Vegas strip are UniteHere shops.

Neither UniteHere nor Edwards' spokesperson would confirm that he plans to play an official role in a new organizing campaign.

One senior official in union would only say that UniteHere "is talking with a number of local and national political leaders about supporting our hotel contract and organizing campaigns across the US and Canada."

Edwards, the official said, "has been a great ally for our members and hospitality workers, and we look forward to working with him in the near future." [MARC AMBINDER]

Republicans in the Bush universe identify about two dozen key political, strategic and fundraising operatives whose '08 intentions will influence where thousands of other operatives, and perhaps tens of thousands of Republican base voters, will go.

Bush's staff tends to identify with each by professional experience -- their future loyalty is defined by their tutelage and their loyalty to those they worked under. "That is to say," said one veteran of the Bush campaign, "the fundraising team was very loyal to Jack Oliver, the political people very loyal to [political director] Terry Nelson and Ken Mehlman, the strategy folks with [Matthew] Dowd. So I'd expect those shops to look very closely at taking their cues from them and their relationships with prospective candidates and contacts within the White House on where to go." [MARC AMBINDER]

A Full List Below:

So the DeLay judge said he would not schedule further hearings on tossing out the remaining two charges until AFTER he knows whether Ronnie Earle will seek to appeal yesterday's decision tossing out the one conspiracy charge.

Earle has 15 DAYS to appeal. In other words, Earle can wait til near Xmas and let DeLay twist in wind before deciding on an appeal.

And we bet he will!

If that is the case, it looks like DeLay won't even have further hearings on getting the charges tossed out til 1/06 let alone a potential trial.

Sometimes we read too many political clips and overlook some amazing things staring us in the face. Among those in Monday's edition, this little factoid, culled from Sunday's San Diego Union-Tribune blockbuster digging deeper into the Duke Cunningham's relationship with "co-conspirator No. 1," a.k.a. lobbyist Brent Wilkes.

According to the U-T, Wilkes also "ran a hospitality suite, with several bedrooms, in" DC -- "first in the Watergate Hotel and then" in a Capitol Hill hotel.

Come again? A "hospitality suite with several bedrooms"?

Talk about raising more questions, including:

-- Why does a lobbyist need a "hospitality suite with several bedrooms"?

-- Who uses those bedrooms and for what?

These lobbying scandals involving Cunningham and Wilkes and Abramoff are looking more and more like a bad movie script every day. Except with one difference from the movies: this stuff actually happened.

NY Gov. George Pataki heads to Des Moines, IA tomorrow to help Iowans for Tax Relief raise money. He also meets with the local chapter of the Red Cross.

The good news: the conspiracy charges against DeLay were thrown out by Judge Pat Priest. That certainly gives DeLay's defense team ammo for..

their defense of the money laundering charges, which were sustained. And now DeLay must go to trial. And that's the bad news.

Remember that Republicans in the House prevailed upon Speaker Hastert to promise to schedule new elections for permanent Majority Leader unless DeLay's legal troubles went away by January.

A trial will not begin until 2006. Would members be willing to give DeLay a few extra months to sort things out?

The statement from DeLay's office hints that the Texas GOPer has no plans to give up the gavel permanently.

"The court's decision to dismiss a portion of Ronnie Earle's manufactured and flawed case against Mr. DeLay underscores just how baseless and politically motivated the charges were. The judge's ruling, along with the recusal motion previously granted, represents yet another legal victory. Mr. DeLay is very encouraged by the swift progress of the legal proceedings and looks forward to his eventual and absolute exoneration based on the facts and the law."

It's true. The ex-NYC mayor has had a hankering for Spain as of late, making several trips to the country in '04 and '05.

Today, Giuliani's Sage Capital Risk Fund announced it will invest tens of millions of Euros to construct two biodiesel plants in Madrid and Burgos.

According to a Spanish language news story, "The annual short-term fuel production goal is 150,000 tons, and the mid-term objective is 500,000 tons."

The Fund will also erect what's billed as the country's first solar plate factory in Aranda de Duero.

You can say one of several things: Giuliani is creating jobs. (For Spaniards.)

And he's investing in renewable energy. (In Spain, not Iowa.)

It's looking more and more like Republicans in West Virginia will have to content themselves with military vet Hiram Lewis as the likely challenger to Sen. Robert Byrd (D).

It's no secret that many GOpers in the state don't think Lewis, who has an engaging personality but a stilted, awkward public speaking style, is their best candidate. Trouble is: they haven't been able to find anyone else to run against Byrd. (Their top choice, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, said no months ago.) And Lewis, an Iraq war vet, has turned the establishment's standoffishness into an asset, raising $500K off social conservative mailing lists.

Some GOPers pinned their hopes on state chair Rob Capehart, but today, Capehart said no. [MARC AMBINDER]

The DC Improv is offering two-for-one tickets to friends of the Hotline on Thursday, Dec. 7 at 8:30 p.m. The host: Daily Howler's Bob Somerby.

That night, we'll announce details about the upcoming Hotline comedy show.

To join the fun, click here.

Ex-Nat'l Writers Union pres. Jonathan Tasini launches his campaign for NY Sen. tomorrow in NYC. Tasini is an unknown to most New Yorkers but not to nat'l Dems: he is a veteran labor organizer and a close friend of several major American union presidents.

In an interivew, Tasini said he's running to press Clinton to take a clear position on Iraq and hopes to galvanize liberals who support an immediate pullout. His ties to labor may get him more press ink, though, and he is likely to bring up Clinton's service on the board of Wal-Mart beginning in '86.

"I think she has some obligation as someone who served on the board of Wal-Mart when Wal-Mart was engaging in fairly aggressive anti-union behavior to explain what happened," Tasini says.

The SEIU and other progressive entities are backing several large campaigns aimed at forcing the company to reform its labor and employment practices. Clinton has so far said little publicly about these efforts, though her advisers frequently discuss labor issues with union leaders. [MARC AMBINDER]

Matt Paul, the always-cheery communications director for IA Gov. Tom Vilsack, will join the gubernatorial campaign next Monday of ex-IA economic development czar Mike Blouin.

Blouin is said by many IA Dems to be Vilsack's first choice for a successor, although Vilsack and his aides are mum in public.

Blouin, says Paul, "has the right skills and the right values at the right time for Iowa."

It was Blouin who first introduced Paul to Vilsack in 1998. Paul was an aide to the mayor of Cedar Rapids and Blouin was the city's chamber of commerce chief.

Paul became Vilsack's press secretary in 2002, served as Howard Dean's deputy IA mgr in 2003 and early 2004 and rejoined Vilsack's staff shortly thereafter.

IA Sec/State Chet Culver (D) leads the early Dem primary polls. Other Dem candidates include Rep. Ed Fallon and Ag. comm. Patty Judge. GOPers include Rep. Jim Nussle and Bob Vander Platts. [MARC AMBINDER]

Update: Vilsack, meanwhile, is traveling to Orlando, FL on 12/10 to have breakfast with state Dems.

From an e-mail sent this morning to ABC staffers by ABC News President David Westin:

"I am pleased to announce that Elizabeth Vargas and Bob Woodruff will co-anchor a new, expanded version of World News Tonight. Their experience as journalists, their familiarity to our audiences, and their commitment to gathering and delivering the news anywhere, anytime and in every way make Elizabeth and Bob the right team to take us forward for the next generation. Please join me in congratulating them."

Expanded, we ask?

"Beginning Monday, January 2nd, when Bob and Elizabeth make their debut together as co-anchors, World News Tonight will become the first evening newscast to broadcast a live version to the West Coast each night. World News Tonight will also make various versions of its reports available over the Internet throughout the afternoon and evening."

PHOENIX -- NM Gov. Bill Richardson, chair of the DGA and one of the first speakers to commit to address the DNC's fall meeting in Phoenix this weekend, abruptly canceled his Saturday morning speech last night.

A DNC spokesperson said he didn't know the reason for Richardson's change of plans.

Richardson's cancellation upset several Dems, who were looking forward to the possible 08er's comments on topics ranging from Iraq to the growth of the Hispanic community.

"I heard he canceled as soon as he found out C-SPAN wasn't coming," grumbled one disenchanted Dem. [JOHN MERCURIO]

Update: Richardson spokesperson Billy Sparks simply said that "scheduling problems prohibited the Governor from attending" and, even when pressed, would not elaborate on those conflicts.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean unofficially endorsed a move by gay Democrats to require the party to guarantee that 5 to 10 percent of their '08 convention delegates are gay or lesbian.

"Of course that's a good idea," Dean said during a meeting with the Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgender caucus Friday evening.

The caucus unanimously passed a resolution urging the DNC to do so. Dean agreed to consider the move. "But I can probably tell you right now that I think it's a good idea."

"The only problem is that you can't tell by looking at somone whether they're gay. At least I can't because my gaydar isn't that good," Dean said to laughter from the caucus. [JOHN MERCURIO]

Today's Spartanburg Herald-Journal (free registration needed) reports on yet another SC visit on the calendar for John McCain. What's interesting about this visit is the timing -- January 16, a.k.a. Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Race and South Carolina go together like oil and water. In '00, McCain hesitated to comment on the infamous flag issue and then later said he regretted not speaking out against "the flag."

What does he say about race and King in his speech that day? Does he mention "the flag"? On any other day, there would be zero expectations for the content of McCain's speech but on MLK Day in SC, there will be. [CHUCK TODD]

Every Friday, The Hotline lists the weekend travel of potential 2008 presidential candidates. And we regularly update our WH '08 Tracking documents (See here, for Democrats, and here for Republicans) so you can keep tabs on your favorite -- or your potential opponent. Check it out -- we've got details of every major trip taken in 2005 by every potential candidate.

Has anyone figured out how Rep. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is not going to have "baggage"-related stories written about him next week after NJ Gov.-elect Jon Corzine makes his SEN pick?

Either Menendez is going to get picked and Republicans (and the NJ/NY media) are immediately going to use Bob Torricelli's quotes (among others) noting Menendez's potential problems in holding the seat. [CHUCK TODD]

IA Gov. Tom Vilsack has kept his mouth shut as New Hampshire Dems agitate against the DNC's primary calendar commission. Some speculate he doesn't want to alienate potential superdelegates/Dem poobahs if he runs for President.

Others say he has complete faith in the two IA-based members of the commission. Yet others say that he has talked privately with commission members.

The more creative argue that Vilsack wants Iowa diminished in import for '08, since he'd expectations that he'd romp the field are way too high.

Whatever it is, Vilsack's staff advises not to expect a public statement from Vilsack until after the commission votes on a proposal on Dec. 10.

Vilsack's already getting in-state heat for his reticence. [MARC AMBINDER]

National Journal's Peter Stone reports that "the activities of two lobbyists who were top aides to Republican House leaders and who worked closely with former lobbyist Jack Abramoff and public-relations executive Michael Scanlon are getting close attention from federal prosecutors in the wide-ranging Justice Department-led influence-peddling investigation. Tony Rudy, who was deputy chief of staff to then-Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, and Neil Volz, who was chief of staff to House Administration Chairman Bob Ney, R-Ohio, are among the approximately 20 lobbyists and members of Congress said to be under Justice Department scrutiny."

As the GOP struggles to reach a compromise on immigration ideology, we thought it'd be instructive to point out what scares GOP pollsters more than just about anything else.

Rep. Tom Tancredo writes, in a letter to his Team American PAC: " Last week, my wife Jackie and I shared Thanksgiving with our family. It was a wonderful break from life in the public spotlight. I want you to know that at dinner that evening I gave special thanks for you and the many other wonderful Americans who work with me in the struggle to secure our nation's borders, and the struggle to preserve our national identity, against the tide of illegal immigrants flooding the United States." [emphasis added]

"Preserving national idenitity" is an innocuous enough phrase, and in the context of political traditions or history or even language, it means what it means.

But in the immigration debate, many GOP pollsters and strategists and big thinkers believe that independent voters, especially women, and nearly all Latino voters, interpret "preserving national identity" as a code word for "keeping America white and Christian."

Some have tested the phrase in polls and focus groups and confirmed their findings. [MARC AMBINDER]

Two campaign sources tell the Hotline that it looks very likely that Tammy Duckworth (D), a triple amputee who sustained critical injuries as a Black Hawk pilot in the war in Iraq, will be running in the IL-06 race against state Sen. Peter Roskam (R).

Duckworth has been mum about a potential campaign; she can't comment while on active duty.. but DCCC Chmn. Rahm Emanuel (D) has been actively recruiting her. Duckworth is not originally from Illinois -- she was born in Hawaii, with an undergraduate degree at the University of Hawaii and a graduate degree at George Washington University. She moved to Illinois when she was a doctoral student at Northern Illinois University. She joined ROTC there, and later served in the state National Guard in 1996 before being deployed to Iraq. And according to the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet, she is presently applying for a release from active duty -- a necessary precursor to officially enter the race.

The district borders Emanuel's -- and he views this race as a key chance to pick up a seat that GOPer Henry Hyde has held since 1974. It also borders Speaker Dennis Hastert's (R) district, as well. Assuming Duckworth enters, this could easily be one of the most competitive and compelling House matchups -- a talented, aspiring Republican state senator against a genuine war hero -- with members of both parties' leadership right next door. The district leans Republican, but it's clearly a swing district that Dems can pick up. Obama won easily here, and Bush only won with 53% of the vote in '04. Duckworth's policy views are largely a mystery. But she is likely to take a more favorable view of the war in Iraq than some of the current Dem leadership in the House. As a guest of Sen. Dick Durbin for President Bush's 2005 State of the Union Address, she said: "Getting to see this ritual of democracy in person tonight is not only a fantastic experience, it really brings home what we were over in Iraq fighting for -- this country and the freedoms that go with it."

Sounds more Lieberman-esque, than something coming from Min Ldr Nancy Pelosi. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist has a series of private meetings in NH next Tuesday, reports our friend Chris Cillizza at The Fix.

And, oh by the way: Frist supports NH's First In The Nation Status.

And we can confirm what John DiStaso reported this morning: expect to see NY Gov. George Pataki in NH by year's end.

(MA Gov Mitt Romney visits Wed.)

At today's Hotline/UVA American Democracy conference, moderator Chuck Todd gave the five Republican pollsters and strategists a task : list the top tier of Republican presidential candidates.

The responses:

Tony Fabrizio: McCain, Allen, definitely ... and then, maybe, Giuliani. And Huckabee, possibly.

Craig Shirley: McCain, Allen and possibly Gingrich.

Kellyanne Conway: McCain, Allen, maybe "Speaker Newt"

John Brabender: McCain, Allen, and, possibly, Santorum (his current client), who Fabrizio noted is amassing an enormous list of donors for his '06 race that'd be a big boon for an '08 race.

Linda DiVall: McCain, Allen and... the third slot is open.

Not one mentioned Mitt Romney, and only one of them mentioned a sitting governor -- Fabrizio's sense that Huckabee could unite the various wings of the GOP.

And they all agreed that SecState Condi Rice was a wild card.

Actor/activist Tim Robbins, talking to Air America's Marc Maron this a.m.: "Hillary Clinton can kiss my butt. That ridiculous, ridiculous statement she made about the war . . . First of all, for supporting it in the first place, an second of all this sort of equivocate now . . . I mean, it's that terrible strategy the Democratic Party has had that has wound up in lost elections, lost Senate control, lost Congressional control. You gotta have a backbone."

Moderator: Larry J. Sabato, Center for Politics

Panelists:

--Fred Barnes, Fox News
--Carl Cannon, National Journal
--Rosiland Jordan, NBC News
--Susan Page, USA Today

Moderator: John Mercurio, The Hotline
Panelists: Chris LaCivita, LaCivita Consulting
John Lapp, DCCC
Ed Patru, NRCC
Guy Cecil, DSCC
Brian Nick, NRSC

Liveblogging the UVA/Hotline American Democracy conference...

Moderator: Chuck Todd, The Hotline
Panelists: John Brabender, BrabenderCox
Kellyanne Conway, the polling company, inc.
Linda DiVall, American Viewpoint
Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates
Craig Shirley, Shirley & Banister Public Affairs

Welcome to the basement of Hotel Washington, where more than 400 political junkies have joined UVA's A+ Angus Certified Larry Sabato and the Hotline's prime rib, Chuck Todd and the Hotline's choice cut John Mercurio for the Hotline/UVA American Democracy Conference.