BIPAC's Map
ShareBIPAC has argued for several cycles that the country remains in a flux, bounded by a few constants. There are roughly twice as many self-identified conservatives as liberals, and even more independents. There is no general tilt in the GOP's direction.
BIPAC's model suggests that voter preferences have shifted within this matrix and are more sophisticated than either party makes them out to be. For example: BIPAC's political guru Bernadette Budde acknowledged there are fewer GOP base voters who are resolutely anti-tax, and that suburban fiscal conservatives have demonstrated their willingness to vote for candidates who support tax increases so long as they're confident the money will be put to good use.
In part, Budde says the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina helped to push these preferences into the open.
That's not to say that voters don't generally prefer tax cuts, just that they are more willing to countenence them and less willing to punish lawmakers who support them in a careful, limited way.
BIPAC's election map is a mix of whites, reds, purples, reds, red/whites and blue/whites. And it illustrates their principle that the '06 elections are not neatly described as red versus blue.
Consider: there are only four states (TX, NV, OH and RI) where both the Gov and Senate incumbents are Republican. (Rhode Island being one of the allegedly 'bluest' states in the country.
-- There are three states where Dem incumbent governors and senators are up for election, including the "red" state of NM.
-- 12 states will feature Gov and Sen elections split between GOP and Dem incumbents.
-- 13 states have either a Gov or a Sen race where the GOP is the incumbent party.
-- 10 states have either a Gov or a Sen race where the Democratic Party's candidate is the incumbent. [MARC AMBINDER]
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