Diageo/Hotline Poll: It's Not Me, It's You
ShareA month ago, all the rage in the pundit world was "when will Cong. GOPers start distancing themselves from Pres. Bush?" Fast forward a month, and it appears Bush is the one searching for distance.
-- The latest Diageo/Hotline poll finds Bush with his first post-Katrina job rating in the 50s (50% to be exact). Meanwhile, Congress' job rating hit another low. Are these numbers an outlier or part of the trend? Consider, we were in the field Monday and Tuesday, probably as good of earned media days Bush has had in months.
-- Bush's movement up is thanks mostly to GOPers coming home, while Congress' strong move down is, well, thanks to more GOPers disapproving (54%).
-- Beyond Bush and Congress, however, is possibly the biggest question in our survey. Which issue should Congress tackle first in '06: Iraq or rebuilding the Gulf Coast? By a landslide, the public wants the Gulf Coast rebuilt (58-28%). However, it's worth noting that self-I.D. GOPers picked Iraq (46-37%). Is this a reflection of message discipline among GOPers who are more apt to side with whatever Bush is talking about as the country's top priority?
More details after the jump.
-- This poll tapped into something that we all knew was out there -- Pres. Bush's job approval is on the rise. We have seen evidence of this in previous polls and the weekly poll averages in last week's Margin For Error foretold the jump, though, clearly this poll is now the new high post-Katrina. The poll hit the field the same night Bush's interview with Brian Williams aired and also coincided with his Iraq speech. Beyond Bush's approval, the poll also reveals some other interesting trends not to be overlooked:
-- Immigration and border control are both GOP issues. Among the most important issues facing the U.S. today, 7% of GOPers say immigration and illegal aliens while it does not even register among Dems. The same is true for Bush's New Year's resolution
-- 5% of GOPers say he should increase border control while Dems do not rank the issue at all.
-- While Rep. Tom DeLay's (R-TX) name I.D. continues to get a bit stronger (26% of regis. voters have never heard of DeLay while an additional 19% have heard of, but can't rate), the other scandal-linked names of late are not yet known. Lobbyist Jack Abramoff is unknown to 72% and ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham's (R-CA) is unknown to 71%.
More regis. voters support Dems in the next Congressional (43%-35), up from last month’s 41%-35%. More voters say they are likely to vote for members of Congress based on "positions on national issues" (37%) rather than local issues (17%).
Looking towards party preference in the next presidential election, voters lean slightly towards the Democratic candidate, 38% to 32%, with Independents preferring the Democratic candidate 26% to 14%.
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