The Futures Market: AL AND AK

During our 2003 series, "The Lost Election," we wanted to know who The Hotline would be writing about two, five, even 10 years down the road. So we took a look at some rising stars in every state from both parties. Excluded from the list are current members of Congress and most big-city mayors as we view those folks as already attaining some form of national stardom.

Relying on interviews with consultants, state party officials and journalists familiar with each state's political landscape, we've done our best to update our list and survey each state party's bench going in to the '06 cycle, the '08 cycle and beyond. Today: Alabama and Alaska. [REID WILSON]

ALABAMA: Stars Not Falling Here (Come On, You Saw That Headline Coming A Mile Away)

While we're excluding sitting members of Congress from our list, it should be noted that nearly everyone we talked to mentioned Rep. Artur Davis as a rising star. One source called him "our Barack Obama." Apparently, whether Davis runs for higher office is not the question, but "when" is. Davis' communications director, Corey Ealons, also received some mention as a rising star, both as a top-tier operative and as a possible candidate himself.

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• State Rep. Mike Hubbard (R): Now GOP Caucus leader. "Mike definately fits the bill as a rising star."
• State Sen. Curt Lee (R): Decided to retire in '06. Going into private law practice
• State Sen. Harri Anne Smith (R): Vice Pres. of a family bank in Southern Alabama. Running for Gov. against GOP incumbent Bob Riley.
• Atty Stephen Black (D): Ex-SCOTUS Justice Hugo Black's grandson. "He's an impressive guy." Ran for State Treas. in '02.
• Businessman Greg Foster (D): In law school, not running this cycle.
• Atty Pam Slate (D): Partner in the law firm of Donaldson, Guin and Slate. Not running this cycle. "Don't see her as a political player."
• Atty Susan Kennedy (D): Former chief counsel for the AL Revenue Dept, not running this cycle. "She's a smart person," but her involvement in the Siegelman admin could hurt her.

• AL GOP Chair Twinkle Cavanaugh: "Nobody knows more about state politics than Twinkle does."
• AG Troy King (R): Appointed to fill William Pryor's unexpired term. "People were saying that guy's going to be governor one day."
• Auditor Beth Chapman (R): In her first term, running for Sec/State in '06. "I suspect that she'll be a player in state politics for years to come."
• Judge Sue Bell Cobb (D): Currently the only Dem on the state Court of Criminal Appeals. Running for AL Supreme Court Chief Justice. "Absolutely an up-and-comer."
• Mobile Dist Atty John Tyson Jr. (D): Running for AG in '06.
• AL Dem Chair/'98/'02 AL 03 nominee Joe Turnham (D): "He's very popular around the state, very grass roots-oriented," says one source. But others disagree: "He's the state party chair because no one wants it."
• State Sen. Maj. Leader Zeb Little (D): An atty from Cullman. "You're going to see this guy in the future."

ALASKA: GOP Turmoil -- One Star Running For Gov, One Kicked Out Of The Caucus

While the state's GOP tilt is evident, both from its election history and the limited areas from which any Dems can be said to be rising, it is interesting to see the splits within the GOP. A former member of Frank Murkowski's cabinet is running against him for Governor, and, after voting against her own party's budget, one state rep. was even kicked out of the caucus. In a state this red, however, a party's ideological purity can probably be safely considered without threatening the state's GOP majority. It should also be observed that even in areas where Dems have seen some success in securing office, the GOP has made recent gains. In Anchorage, GOPers turned a large deficit into an 8-3 majority.

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• Ex-Oil & Gas Conservation Commis. Sarah Palin (R): Running for Gov. against Gov. Frank Murkowski (R).
• State Sen. Ben Stevens (R): Now the Sen. Pres. "has proven his ability to lead."
• Anchorage Municipal Assemb. Dan Sullivan (R): Now the senior "conservative" member of an assembly with an 8-3 GOP membership edge.
• State Rep. Nancy Dahlstrom (R): Voted against the GOP budget towards end of session and was kicked out of the House GOP caucus.
• State House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D): Long-time minority leader, running for Gov. in '06. "Very much positioning himself to win what is shaping up to be a three-way race."
• State Rep. Eric Croft (D): Running for Gov. in '06.
• State Sen. Gretchen Guess (D): Running for re-election, a "strong rising star."
• State Rep. Mary Kapsner (D): Running for re-election to State House.

• State Rep. Ralph Samuels (R): From Anchorage, in his 3rd year in the State House.
• State Rep. Michael Kelly (R): From Fairbanks, in his 2nd year. Took the lead in fixing AK's retiree benefits program.
• State Sen. Burt Stedman (R): Appointed to fill a vacancy sen '03, won in '04. He's a "solid citizen, solid member of the Senate."
• Anchorage Assemb. Chair Anna Faircloth (R): Candidate for State Legislature, could be going places in the future.
• Bill Wielechowski (D): IBEW official, narrowly lost a race for Anchorage Assembly in '04. He's "definately a power-house." Will be "moving far, fast."
• State Sen. Hollis French (D): Beat long-time incumbent GOPer in '02. "I expect fully that he's going to be a statewide candidate at some point."
• Fairbanks Assemb. Luke Hopkins: Likely to be presiding officer after Dems took control of the assembly. Expected to move quickly up the ranks in the future.
• Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D): Son of ex-Rep. Nick Begich (D), in his first term with "approval ratings in the 70s." "Probably the state's largest Democratic rising star."