January 2006

To the surprise of nobody, Shadegg, Blunt and Boehner all quickly issued statements after the speech praising their party's leader and affirming their support for his agenda.

Actually, Shadegg issued his before the speech was even over. And he was the only one of the three to directly raise the lurking elephant (as it were) in the room: the 2/2 Maj Leader election.

Full statements from all three after the jump:

For someone who does not read opinion columns, Pres. Bush sure did sound some Friedmanian tones tonight. Surely the lede in tomorrow's stories, Bush's proposals to wean America's dependence on foreign oil were really the closest thing to news in what ABC's Martha Raddatz termed a "cut and paste" speech comprised of well-known themes and positions.

Teeing up his Advanced Energy Initiative, the Prez declared in his address that "America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world..."

Friedman's 1/27 NYT column titled "State of the Union": "On Tuesday President Bush will deliver his State of the Union address and map out priorities for his last three years. The direction in which America needs to go is obvious: toward energy independence."

But, alas, the real SOTU included no "Patriot Tax" of $2 dollars per-gallon of gasoline as it did in Friedmania. Oh, and it also did not end with an announcemnt that VP Cheney was stepping down.

Though they may be taking some hits on the "outside game," give credit to Team Blunt for their efforts on the "inside game."

By inside game we mean the nuts and bolts of securing commitments, nudging fence-sitters and getting those who might have previously been with them in private to go public. In other words, the part of the campaign that Blunt partisans would say actually matters in getting to 117.

After releasing two endorsements late last Friday (Rep. Aderholt (AL) and ex-Approps chair Young (FL)), they announced three more today: Rep's Cubin (WY), McHugh (NY), Wilson (NM). We wonder if the latter two came before of after the candidates spoke to the moderate Tuesday Group.

Not to be outdone, Boehner also sent out notice late today that he had reeled in Rep's Jim Gerlach (PA) and George Radanovich (CA). BTW, Gerlach was a "yes" on the budget in December, but may be reassessing his position. Radanovich did not vote on the measure. Ya think those whip calls tomorrow will be awkward?

Also, do these new commitments -- coming on the first day members are back and getting the pitch mano-a-mano -- portend more public endorsements on election eve tomorrow?

The last 9 months have produced 2 SCOTUS vacancies, 3 SCOTUS nominees, a judicial compromise, a filibuster vote, and an untold number of memories. The judicial drama that has unfold over the last 9 months will undoubtedly be remembered in a class all its own. Through it all, we've seen some pretty impressive performances -- and while no superlatives can do these guys justice, we couldn't help but hand out a few accolades:

Most Athletic: White House-assigned sherpas, Fred Thompson, Dan Coats, and Ed Gillespie, whose pedometers logged more than a few miles as they ushered the nominees from senate office to senate office.

Biggest Loner: Sen. Daniel Inouye, the only member of the "Gang of 14" who voted against Roberts.

Biggest Ladies Man: Harriet Miers' on-again, off-again boyfriend Nathan Hecht

Most Likely to Succeed: Reagan-era lawyers

Teachers Pet: Sen. Arlen Specter, presumably humbled by the near loss of his chairmanship a year earlier, provided Bush with the loyal support he needed at the helm of the Judiciary Cmte.

Teachers Torment: GW Professor Jonathan Turley, who came out early and often against Bush's nominees, calling Miers an
"Amazingly Bad Choice" within minutes of her nomination.

Worst Case of Senioritis: Sen. John McCain, who in helping craft the filibuster compromise enjoyed a brief moment of relevance, but seemed to lose interest and press after the gang's prominence dwindled.

Most Dependable: Ralph Neas. A reporter on a deadline was never disappointed by this go to guy.

Hardest Working: Sunday, as in the day of the week. In the case of all 3 nominees, the use of religion became a way to both reassure and scare various groups. A Threepeat performance by the organizers of "Justice Sunday" insured that this day of rest put in some long hours.

Least Changed: Sen. Ted Kennedy. Just when you thought he'd given up his role as Liberal and Chief to Schumer, Kennedy ended the SCOTUS season with an impassioned call for a filibuster.

Best Hair: Unlike SCOTUS hearings of the past (aheem, Clarence Thomas), hair enjoyed little-to no relevance. No winner.

Most Hyped: SCOTUS Justice Alberto Gonzales

Life of the Party: John Roberts' son, Jack, who made a Copachaba man of the East Room

One of our favorite parts of the SOTU is the reliable presence of a handful of House Dems who spend 364 days of the year lacing into Pres Bush, but spend a good chunk of this day camped out in aisle seats on the House floor so as to shake hands with the Prez and get some nat'l tv face time.

A House spy reports as of 3 p.m. (a full 6 hours before gametime) the following members were lined up in these primo positions. From the back of the chamber forward, the order was: Rep's Kildee (MI), A. Green (TX), Jackson Lee (TX), Tubbs Jones (OH), Jackson (IL).

Our eagle-eyed observer adds that most had purses or briefcases to "mark their territory."

So if you are not there yet, Mr. Engel, this is your warning!

UPDATE: Our eagle-eyed observer is also near-sighted, it turns out. Rep. Becerra (CA) was not in the House chamber earlier today. We regret the error

LA is a tough state to survey. While most fed officials are GOPers, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) still retains a firm grip on her seat, and state politics are still dominated by Dems. Further, as one can imagine, LA pols have some pretty weighty issues on their minds these days. That being said, whoever emerges as the leader of the Katrina rebuilding project will be a hero for generations. Whether that's LG Mitch Landrieu (D), Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) (who everyone mentioned as a Gov candidate in '07) or even Ray Nagin (D), someone's going to be Gov for life. [REID WILSON]

In a recent Basswood Research (R) poll memo, three "key findings" of the poll are highlighted. First, swing voters (i.e. those "likely to determine which party controls Congress next year") have a negative view of current leadership and are favoring Dems. Second, "ethical scandals are taking a toll" of the perception of GOPers in swing districts and are closely associated with the party. And finally, "voters in these swing districts have a clear and strong preference for a new Republican Majority Leader who is not perceived as tainted by the Washington lobbyist community." This is true, but what has to be kept in mind when reading this is that it is all in the question wording, and of course the order. It has already been established that ethics is a sore spot for GOPers so of course someone with no ethical lapses is an attractive candidate. Read these results as one would an informed ballot, keeping in mind that any of the three candidates could be described in a different light to alter the results dramatically.

Where will Rep. DeLay sit tonight. Rep. Ney? And what's the over-under on whether the pool director will cut to either of them when (and if) Bush talks about honesty in goverment?

This morning's CongressDailyAM reports that the House leadership remains confident that its signature budget paring bill will pass -- even as GOPers begin to defect.

In Dec., the House passed its version of the conference report by 212-206. Nine GOPers voted no, and ten didn't vote. As National Journal's Richard Cohen points out, the loss/Senatorial promotion of Bob Menendez for Dems gives House leaders a bit more padding for possible defections.

Because the Senate tinkered with the bill, the House has to vote again. In the intervening month and a half, labor unions have worked to peel off centrist GOPers from the NE and Midwest, blanketing their districts with television advertisements.

Labor argues that the cuts to Medicare in the bill would saddle low-income seniors with higher co-pays. Other liberal groups say the bill would hurt families on welfare. NE GOPers like Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH)worry about heating oil help for poorer families.

The vote is scheduled for Wednesday, the day before the GOP conference elects a new majority leader.

Rep. Rob Simmons(R-CT) has already announced his intention to switch from yes to no. Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), who didn't vote the first time, will vote "no" on Wednesday, according to Congressional Quarterly.

Others on the fence, according to Dem sources, GOP sources and published reports: Reps. Boehlert, Sweeney, LoBiondo, Fitzpatrick, Shays, Gerlach and Ramstad.

Even if all those GOPers vote no -- opponents would need a few more votes in order to defeat the bill.

Still, we're bound to hear moderate GOPers grumbling about having to walk the plank (after a month of being pelted back in their CDs) for what amounts to some very small tweaks in the language.

Also: a narrowly-passed bill might trigger doubts among Republicans in the conference whether Maj. Whip. Rep. Roy Blunt has enough clout with members to ascend to the majority leader's position.

And consider this: what happens if, as is typical, the arm-twisting that inevitably accompanies a close vote spills over (even psychologically) into the next day. Will members be eager to promote Blunt? Eager to throw all the bums out? [JONATHAN MARTIN AND MARC AMBINDER]

By a vote of 72-25 the Senate shot down a filibuster attempt today on Sam Alito's SCOTUS nomination. All of the Senates GOPers voted against the filibuster. 24 Dems and Sen. Jim Jeffords
(I-VT) voted for a filibuster, while 19 Dems voted against. This 24-19 Dem split provided some variation on the catch 22 of the John Roberts days. Here's a breakdown:

-- Dems who voted against Roberts and against the filibuster include HI Sens. Daniel Akaka and Daniel Inouye, and Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA).

-- Dems who voted for Roberts and for the filibuster include Sens. Chris Dodd (CT), Russ Feingold (WI), Pat Leahy (VT), Carl Levin (MI), Patty Murray (WA), and Ron Wyden (OR).

-- Sen. Tom Harkin (IA), who voted against Roberts, did not vote on the filibuster attempt. [NORA McALVANAH]

As cloture was invoked on Sam Alito's nomination today -- it was 72 to 25 -- there's a case to be made that some Dems should whisper their thanks to Sen.John Kerry.

Consider: Sen. Min Leader Harry Reid reportedly cautioned against Kerry's filibuster push because he was worried about the maneuver's unintended impact on Dems in GOP-leaning states. But perhaps Reid wasn't thinking outside that unintended consequences box of his, because Kerry's 11th hour push actually provided the Mark Pryor's of the world with the perfect cover. For Pryor, being able to announce that he's against Alito, but not beholden to liberal interest groups in the same breath (aka against the filibuster) provided him with the ultimate redeemable wherever, no proof of purchase necessary, Get Out of Jail Free card.

The Red state Dems who will endorse Alito now have a "Yes, but I didn't filibuster" to placate their constituents with in '06. And nothing says the perfect moderate man's out like Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) embracing the tactic. After all, Chafee got to have the best of both worlds today, announcing he opposed both Alito and the Dems' efforts at a filibuster. Nicely executed.

Just remember to tell Sens. Mark Pryor (D-AR) , Tim Johnson (D-SD), Bill Nelson (D-FL), and Ken Salazar (D-CO) that they should address their thank you cards to John Kerry....that's K-e-r-....[NORA MCALVANAH]

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) has clarified what Rolling Stone magazine, in a critical profile of the socially conservative Senator, suggested was an anti-gay smear.

Brownback, in describing the impact of gay marriage in Sweden, said of the effects, "You'll know 'em by their fruits." Wrote Rolling Stone's Jeff Sharlett: "He pauses, and an awkward silence fills the room. He was citing scripture -- Matthew 7:16 -- but he just called gay Swedes 'fruits.'"

Well -- Brownback's office, under fire from gay rights groups, slipped out a clarifying statement today:

"When quoting Matthew 7:16, 'Ye shall know them by their fruits'; I was in no way referring to sexual orientation."

"While this biblical passage was pertinent to our overall conversation about faith and deeds, it apparently led the writer to believe I was making a joke; I was not and would never do so with such a personal and sensitive issue."

BTW: Brownback's office considers the article a hit piece.

On Friday, Human Rights Campaign president Joe Solomnese wrote to Brownback: "In an apparent attempt to use a Biblical passage to derogatorily jab at gays and lesbians, you have stepped well over the line of decorum and common decency."

He urged an apology. [MARC AMBINDER]

As the DNC nomination commissions' recs wend their way to the party's rules and bylaws committee, Michigan Democrats, led by DNC member Debbie Dingell and Sen. Carl Levin, have written letters to potential '08 candidates urging them to avoid making public pledges of support for IA and NH's "privileged status."

The letter is similar to one Dingell and Levin released as the calendar commission began its work in '05. And it reflects the nervousness that a high-profile "intervention" from a presidential candidate could put the kibosh on the commission's proposals.

Virtually all of the potential pres. hopefuls have made known publicly their preference to safeguard IA and NH's position. (Depending on which DNC member is relating the scuttlebutt, some of the potential candidates have also privately expressed support for the direction the commission's proposals take.) [MARC AMBINDER]

Two DNC items this afternoon.

1. In the wake of this morning's Roll Call story featuring anoynmous senior Dems blasting Howard Dean and co. for only netting $5M this year -- the DNC says it's raised $25K through the net, unsolicited.

2. The DNC is boiling mad over this rendition of the RNC's house party concept. Oh, and it's being held at a gay bar. BTW: we're not entirely sure this is a legit RNC party.

The Republican National Committee is distributing a memo from Bush '04 strategist/RNC senior adviser Matthew Dowd cautioning against any super-high expectations for a post-SOTU bounce.

(Is he lowering expectations? Setting them realistically??

Dowd counsels Bush fans to be "mindful" of the chimeric post-SOTU bounce storyline.

Dowd: "While all of us would welcome increased public approval, the history (both recent and the last 50 years) of poll movement around this event shows quite a different story."

He continues: "In looking at poll movement before and after State of the Union addresses, the average over the last fifty years is actually a slight drop (-0.2%). President Bush's average change is also a drop (-0.4%). Only one of his SOTU addresses showed positive movement (2005), which is likely attributed to the intervening events of the 2005 Inaugural and January 2005 Iraqi elections. Even the "Great Communicator" President Ronald Reagan's average poll movement after State of the Union addresses was negative (-2.6%), and in fact Reagan only had one SOTU speech with positive poll movement!" [MARC AMBINDER]

A red state, through and through. Right? Well, not really. After a rocky first term, many politicos in KY don't think Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) will run for re-election. If he does, he's toast -- if not in the primary, then in the general. GOPers have a strong bench, especially in KY 03, so when Rep. Anne Northrup (R) retires, the NRCC will have a good shot at staving off the DCCC, which has salavated over that seat for a long time. Dems have candidates who seem to need a little extra encouragement to jump into the races that are supposed to be theirs to lose, but if they do, the state might become a little more even across the board. [REID WILSON]

Per an email just sent out by Conference chair Deborah Pryce (R-OH), the Maj Leader election will take place at 1 p.m. on Thursday.

The balloting will not take place in the Capitol, though. Instead, House GOPers will use the larger (more sound-proof?) Cannon Caucus room on the third floor of the original House Office Building.

Sen. Bob Menendez plans to vote against the confirmation of Judge Sam Alito, PoliticsNJ.com reports.

The Coalition for Security, Liberty and the Law tonight plans to broadcast an ad defending the Patriot Act during tonight's edition of "24" on Fox. We've yet to figure out which markets it will air in.

The ad features Debra Burlingame, the sister of American Airlines Flight 77 captain Chic Burlingame.

Burlingame speaks directly to camera and questions Senators who think they can "safely weaken" the Patriot Act.

(One small irony: the "President" on "24" is portrayed as a vacillating reed of a man who ought not be trusted with extraordinary powers. And a key aide is working with the enemy.)

Ex-Rep. Ken Lucas (D) is announcing today that he’s making a bid to reclaim his old KY 04 House seat. Lucas, who retired in ’04, saw his seat switch to the GOP last cycle, when Rep. Geoff Davis defeated Clooney dad Nick Clooney 54%-44%. But Lucas is hoping for results similar to '02, when he defeated Davis by 3 points in what was his final campaign.

In his press release, Lucas said: "In 2004, I had planned to retire from elected public service. But, over the last year, I've grown concerned about the widespread public corruption news coming from Congress and the increased partisanship in the U.S. House of Representatives. I'm disappointed that Geoff Davis has done nothing to separate himself from many of the figures involved in those scandals and that he has voted almost exclusively with his national party’s congressional leadership at the expensive of bipartisan cooperation and good will." [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Heartland PAC, chaired by IA Gov. Tom Vilsack, raised more than $1.6M in '06, spending a third of what was raised on contributions, travel, donor prospecting and staff, according to disbursements filed with the IRS.

Heartland is not a federal PAC; it solicits money only for races within states and can accept individual donations of any size.

A $100K check was written by Lewis Cullman, a New York venture capitalist and major party fundraiser.

The PAC ended the year with more than 1M CoH.

According to Politicalmoneyline.com, Heartland PAC "paid Blue State Digital more than $67,000 for website work. They paid Dewey Square Group almost $125,000 for consulting, rent, travel, insurance and other operating expenses. They have also contributed a total of $65,000 to party committees in Iowa, Kansas and New Jersey."

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist's Volunteer PAC raised $3.5 million in 2005, soaking in more than 50K separate contributions.

The PAC also spent a significant amount of money, ending the year with about $800K.

PAC sources said the Frist team spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on small-donor prospecting and on the PAC's website, which includes an updated blog and extensive resources for GOPers seeking to help their party in the midterms. As Maj. Leader, Frist is a hot ticket wherever he travels.

According to a Frist adviser, the average donation in '06 was $70. That, combined with the large amount of new donors, suggests that Frist broadened his financial and political base during the second six months of '05.

When he stepped down as NRSC chair at the end of the '02 cycle, Frist brought with him a top-notch fundraising team. That team, which includes ex-NRSC finance dir. Linus Catignani, ex-NRSC counsel Alex Vogel, Linda Bond and Chip Saltzman, are clearing a path for Frist to make a presidential bid, although aides insist that Frist has yet to decide whether he will run.

One of themost anticipated vote announcements on Sam Alito is from liberal GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is facing an incredibly tough primary fight in RI SEN. Well, later this morning, Chafee will announce he's voting against Alito's confirmation. While this will make for big news and lots of crowing for Chafee's conservative GOP primary foe, Steve Laffey, it actually makes sense.

Voting for Alito would not have bought Chafee any new conservative friends but may have cost him some of his indie/left-leaning supporters, including NARAL, which would have made the general that much tougher. One thing even critics of Chafee can say is that his opposition to Alito is actually a consistent position on judicial nominations.

No, not that CW.

We're talking about the conventional wisdom in political Washington that Rep's Shadegg and Boehner have accrued enough support between them to force a second ballot in next week's Maj Leader race. Indeed, just about the only people you talk to who don't believe the race will reach a runoff are those toiling in a certain well-appointed leadership office upstairs in the Capitol.

Has the political "CW" been wrong before? Too many times to recall. But for a number of reasons (among them Shadegg's rock star support in the conservative blogosphere and the absence of the sort of MSM scrutiny which Boehner and Blunt were subject to at the race's outset) the momentum that had carried Blunt's candidacy to the brink of inevitability a few weeks ago has hit a wall.

To be fair to Team Blunt, the wall they've hit is cushioned with the public endorsement of some 94 colleagues (more on that later). However, if Blunt's claims of having more than the needed 117 commitments to wrap up the contest on the first vote are proven untrue this week, January 13th will prove to be the turning point in the race.

The Hotline's Chuck Todd picks five race made more contentious by the year's events -- and five incumbents or party-held seats made even safer.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton will vote yes on a filibuster (no to cloture) and no on Alito.

Sending a release with a dateline of "Caracas, Venezuela," anti-Iraq war activist Cindy Sheehan vowed to challenge CA Sen. Dianne Feinstein in '06 if she didn't participate in the Alito filibuster. (Note: Sheehan's flak spelled Sen. Feinstein's first name, "Diane.") More from the release, that notes DiFi is voting No-lito but also No-buster:

I'm appalled that Diane Feinstein wouldn't recognize how dangerous Alito's nomination is to upholding the values of our constitution and restricting the usurpation of presidential powers, for which I've already paid the ultimate price."

Yes, yes, Kerry was at Davos. Effete, snow-skiing filibustering liberal. Ha Ha. Funny. Original, too!

Well -- so were Sens. Sununu and Chambliss and at least a half dozen Bush administration officials, along with delegation leader Sen. John McCain.

Take it away, Jeff Sessions, who said on the floor of the Senate today that folks attending Davos "ought to spend more time trying to get the oil prices and gasoline prices down."

Maybe...

The Democratic National Committee is slapping back at Republicans, who poked Min. Leader Harry Reid (D) with a critical TV ad in his home state.

The RNC-produced ad accuses Reid of working to gut the Patriot Act, which the ad credits with savings lives and preventing terrorist attacks.

The Dem ad takes on President Bush directly. It juxtaposes Bush's remarks about tax cuts and the economy with "the reality" -- things aren't so rosy, according to Dems. The tagline: American Deserves The Truth.

The Dems will also air the ad in Nashville, where Bush has a Wednesday visit planned, so they say it's not a "response ad," per se.

Alas, if On Call weren't a family publication, we could easily come up with a metaphor that evokes a less flattering version of this.

This probably means very little in the grand scheme of things, but Shadegg has won the endorsement of Steve Laffey. Yeah, that Steve Laffey

In a letter sent last night to the two co-chairs of the DNC's rules of bylaws cmte, DNC chairman Howard Dean for the first time formally endorsed proposed changes to the party's nomination calendar.

Dean tells committee chairs Alexis Herman and Jim Roosevelt that the commission "carried out its work in a thoughtful and deliberate manner, soliciting and listening to a broad range of opinions about the process."

"I am pleased that the Commission has made recommendations that seek to broaden participation and increase diversity in the early stages of the presidential nominating process. Indeed, I am mindful that over the years that Party has instituted reforms at making our nomination process fairer, more representative and more effective for both our presidential candidates and the voters."

Dean says the recommendations are "positive step" in that direction.

In December, after months of contentious debate, the commission recommended adding at least one caucus between IA and NH and at least one after -- and urged the rules and bylaws committee to add incentives for states to hold their delegate selection contests later in the year. The commission also voted to formally recognize IA and NH's first-in-the-nation positions on the schedule.

New Hampshire Democrats protested, saying the proposal to add another delegate event before its primary did little to enhance diversity and a whole lot to punish civically-minded NH voters. NH Dems also contend that the proposed changes would further front-load the calendar, potentially producing a nominee without the benefit of extensive vetting by voters.

However, a majority of commission members were convinced by arguments suggesting that adding as few as two new caucuses or primaries could add both regional and ethnic diversity to the pool of base voters who tend to winnow the early primary field. Also, DNCers with long-standing resentment against NH and IA found a venue to exercise their frustration.

Dean's endorsement signals that he was not swayed by NH's vociferous objections.

The rules and bylaws committee meets early this spring to discuss the proposal. The full DNC membership has the final say in April. If the DNC adds an additional caucus before NH, NH's Sec/State has promised to act to make sure NH's status is maintained. And NH's legislature is preparing to give him that authority. [MARC AMBINDER]

As with HI, WY and other states with dominant parties nonetheless shut out of the Gov mansion, KS GOPers have found themselves continually stymied when searching for a challenger to Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) this year. However, some say that Sebelius' popularity is to the detriment of the KS Dem bench, and while several of our rising stars have their eyes on statewide office, they may find themselves seriously underperforming one of the most popular Govs in the country. Also of note, while IA featured a former rising star who lost out thanks to a cow's nose-print, KS offers up the first ex-star who's now in prison. [REID WILSON]

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America will report to the FEC that it raised about $2.3M during the last three months of '05.

It ended the year with $1.2M CoH -- a considerable burn rate for a PAC that re-opened in September.

Sen. Evan Bayh ended '05 with a whopping $9.5M in his Senate campaign account, according to reports Bayh will file with the FEC.

Campaign account money can be directly transferred into a presidential exploratory account; only a fraction of a Leadership PAC's cash is fungible.

In typical '08 hopeful fashion, Bayh is using his campaign account to accumulate a bankroll for a potential presidential race and is using his PAC to earn chits with Dems across the country.

Bayh's PAC contributed the maximum to NH Gov. John Lynch and NJ Gov. Jon Corzine. It gave $15k to the DSCC, 10K to the NH Dem party, money to the Blackhawk Co. Dem Party in IA and $25K to home-state Dems in Indiana's house. Sens. Bill Nelson and Robert Byrd recieved donations, as did candidates Harold Ford (TN) and Claire McCaskill (MO). House candidate Dave Loebsack recieved $1K from the PAC as did several others. Bayh also contributed to several IA legislative campaigns.

For the year, the Senate account took in more than 3M -- including more than $1.7M in the final quarter. The PAC, which has more than $800K on hand, raised more than $1.5M for the year.

Bayh's chief fundraiser is Nancy Jacobson. His senior advisers include Anita Dunn and Dan Pfeiffer, along with pollster Paul Maslin and ex-Gore CoS Ron Klain. [MARC AMBINDER]

A small sign of the times, perhaps. But a non-profit that's pushing a revamp of Florida's remap process says they have well more than 900K signatures and expect the SoS to certify their initiative to the 11/06 ballot.

The initiative (actually, three of them) would create an independent redistricting commission.

FL's district lines are among the nation's most convoluted and incumbents enjoy a decided advantage over would-be opponents.

The Committee for Fair Elections is sponsoring the ballot petition drive. The group says they're bipartisan, although most of its coalition members are center-left, including Common Cause and the League of Women Voters, not to mention very prominent Dems, including ex-Rep. Carrie Meek and ex-Sen. Bob Graham. GOPers include ex-comptroller Bob Milligan and Bush '41 fundraiser/lawyer Thom Rumberger.

Redistricting is becoming more popular in theory; voters don't seem to like partisan meddling.

But process-reform ballot initiatives often fail, in part because the language used to describe them is so complicated. And it's unclear whether most Republican-leaning voters in the state are all that unhappy about their party entrenching its control of legislative districts. (Dem leaders in DC are wary of the idea, too. They don't want to mess with their own incumbency privileges.)

CA's major reform effort failed; Texas's mid-decade redistricting will this spring be debated for the U.S. Supreme Court. If the court rules that political considerations intruded too much, a wave of "independent commission" proposals might suddenly roll through the 50 states. The Center for Voting and Democracy is a good site to check for updates.

John Raese gets in.

Hours later, Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) announces he'll support Judge Sam Alito.

(To be fair, Byrd's the guy who talks about his respect for the Constitution and carries a copy in his pocket. He's probably not one to take his judicial nomination votes lightly.)

Update: Tim Johnson makes it three.

In case you missed it...

On domestic spying: "Democrats the support the idea that you have to spy on terrorists. We support the idea that you need to eavesdrop from time to time but we also believe the president ought to obey the law. ... This is not simply a listening to al Qaeda this is poking around into people's private lives."

More: "I don't know why the president is doing this. We all believe that you spy on al Qaeda but we don't believe you shouldn't spy on American citizens without some third party looking at this. That's what makes the difference between countries like America and Iran, where the government can do anything they damn well please. ... The president is breaking the law. There's no need for it. ... It's a bad example for our kids for the president to insist that it's okay for him to blame the law."

Two news stories this a.m. make mention of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's first public remarks on Wal-Mart yesterday. Newsday suggests that Clinton pushed Wal-Mart to shoulder more of its employees health care burden.

Still, Newsday correctly notes: "Clinton never explicitly endorsed Maryland's law during her speech before the U.S. Conference of Mayors in Washington, but she later told reporters, 'I certainly understand their need to try to take some action because the burden is getting shifted onto the taxpayer.'"

More: "Asked if she had advocated better benefits while serving as a board member with Arkansas-based Wal-Mart from 1986 to 1991, Clinton replied, 'Well, you know, I, that was a long time ago ... have to remember,' adding that 'obviously I believe every company should" contribute to benefit plans.'"

To our ears, the more significant Wal-Mart related political news is what outgoing fed chair Alan Greenspan wrote in a letter to a GOPer in Congress.

Greenspan urged Congress to review an exemption to federal banking laws that allow so-called "industrial banks" to escape regulatory scrutiny.

As Reuters notes: " His comments come as regulators review a controversial application by Wal-Mart to open an industrial bank primarily to handle electronic payment processing. That bid has drawn concern from some in Congress, and from some financial institutions, that the world's largest retailer could use its bank as a base to offer a much wider array of services."

Check out Hotline senior editor John Mercurio's latest PolitiScope, where he writes that "anyone who thinks the Jack Abramoff scandal isn't gaining "traction" as a partisan issue should watch what's going on this week in Montana."

House GOP Conf. chair Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH) sent a letter to colleagues today detailing the schedule of events next Thursday, when the party is set to choose a replacement for Rep. Tom DeLay.

Pryce writes that the conference will meet on 2/1 to "entertain any motion or resolution pertaining to the leadership election." Translation: motions to vacate other posts -- such as Pryce's -- would be considered at that time. Then, Rules Cmte Chairman David Dreier "will lead a discussion on lobbying and ethics reform." Pryce warns her colleagues that the session will be "lengthy."

On 2/2, the conference will meet to vote. After nominating and seconding speeches, voting begins. Candidates need a majority of the 232 voting members -- at least 117 votes -- to win. If the first ballot doesn't produce a winner, the candidate with the least number of votes is removed and balloting continues until a majority is cobbled together.

UPDATE: While on the topic of the Gentlelady from Columbus, we thought we'd note that another Pryce email came across our desk (er, screen) earlier today. This missive, also under her leadership letterhead, took a shot at the House Dems' "hypocrisy" over lobbying reform. It unearthed some oppo on Min Leader Nancy Pelosi, pointing out a '95 vote where they say she voted against a provision "to prohibit registered lobbyists from giving gifts to members, officers, or employees of the House and Senate."

A coincidence that the Conference p.r. machine would crank up a day after two other GOPers made their interest known in the gig?

Normally, journalists have to pull teeth to get state party chairs to alert us to upcoming visits by prospective presidential candidates. But not MI GOP chair Saul Anuzis.

From his must-read blog, about Super Bowl weekend:

"MA Governor Mitt Romney will be the key note speaker at the Oakland County Lincoln Day Dinner Friday night and then staying through the weekend for bowl activities. NY Governor George Pataki and VA Senator George Allen will also be attending various functions over the weekend."

BTW: there's also a catchy jobs clock that Anuzis and Co. are promoting to create a narrative about Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

Some advice for Dems: the GOP knows that you're not the "Democrat" party or the "Democrat National Committee." And, yes, Ken Mehlman's English teacher taught him when to use the suffix "ic."

When, say, President Bush refers to the opposition party as the "Democrat Party," Republicans know that it, in the words of one Dem who e-mailed us this morning, "pisses us off."

That's why they do it.

Because it irritates Dems. And because "Democrat" triggers more negative connotations than "Democratic."

Of course, when Mehlman addressed the NAACP in Milwaukee last July, he said "Democratic." That was one audience he didn't want to offend.

On the NSA spying/"terrorist surveillance" program, Bush said it "is necessary to protect America from attach." Bush said that after 9/11, he asked his advisers whether he should get a congressional authorization to use NSA resources to target terrorists in the US. Bush: "I asked before we do anything, I want to make sure it's legal." He said he made sure "there were safeguards" in place to protect civil liberties. Bush: "As I stand here right now, I can tell the American people that the program is legal, it's necessary to protect national security, and it's designed to protect civil liberties." Bush: "If the attempt to write law would...expose the nature of this program, I will resist it."

"There is a serious investigation going on as their should be. The American people should have confidence in the ethics of all government. I've had my people taken with him evidently. Having my picture taken with someone doesn't mean that I'm a friend with them or know them very well. I've had my picture taken with you at holiday parties. I'm also mindful that we live in the world that those pictures will be used for pure political purposes and they're not useful for the investigation."

Asked if a Hamas victory in Palestine means that the peace process is dead, Bush: Peace is never dead because people want peace. That's why I articulated the two-state solution. early in my administration."

Bush called yesterday's high turnout election a referendum on the "status quo". Bush: "Obviously, people were not happy with the status quo." He said the Palestinian people didn't think the "old guard" was able to provide them with basic services and security. Bush said he likes the "competition of ideas." He said he talked to NSA Sec. Rice twice this a.m. and would continue to monitor the situation. He hinted he would not engage Hamas until they recognized Israel's right to exist. Since no gov't has yet formed, though, Bush refused to say what his exact posture toward Hamas would be. Bush: "If there is corruption, I'm not surprised that people say, let's get rid of corruption."

We hear that Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) played host Tuesday night to the visiting prime minister of Pakistan.

At their Georgetown home, Kerry and Teresa Heinz Kerry hosted PM Shaukat Aziz and about ten guests, including Sens. Lindsey Graham, Patrick Leahy, Carl Levin, Richard Lugar, Jack Reed, Gordon Smith and John Warner.

Speaking of Sen. Clinton and health care...

In a speech today to mayors in Washington, Clinton discussed, for the first time we know of, efforts by states to force companies like Wal-Mart to shoulder a larger portion of employee's health care costs.

Of the President's State of the Union proposals, Clinton said that they would "shift costs and risks even more on the backs of individuals, many of whom will not be able to carry it. It is troubling to me that when we look at this shifting of costs, again the buck stops with state and local government. You know that many uninsured people show up in the emergency rooms in the hospitals in your cities."

Clinton continues: "Maryland recently sought to address this cost-shifting, requiring that companies like Wal-Mart put 8 percent of their payroll costs into employee health benefits . . . or contribute to state-sponsored insurance for the working poor. Similar steps have been taken in New York City and elsewhere in New York. Because cities and states are saying, we can't keep holding the bag here. Everybody has got to be part of the solution because we are all part of the problem that we confront."

To be clear: Clinton does not necessarily endorse MD's approach. But she suggests that such state-based interventions are made more likely by the health care philosophy of the governing Republican class.

Clinton, by the way, was a Wal-Mart board member before her husband ran for president.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton waded shoulder-deep into health care issues this week. You wouldn't necessarily know it by perusing her press, which focuses on her NSA worries, that lefty angst about a potential '08 candidacy, and a purported lack of upstate appeal.

The DNC is bragging about its podcast feautring the straight-talking, no-nonsense governor from Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell.

....who endorsed Sam Alito yesterday and said of the Democratic efforts to defeat the nomination, "I wasn't pleased."

What frustrates some social conservative elites about John McCain: they don't perceive any passion in his pro-life votes or pronouncements.

(TO wit: Hotline's quote of the day: "I've never agreed with Roe v. Wade so it wouldn't bother me any." He had been asked if confirming Alito would lead to that decision's being overturned.)

What frustrates John McCain about some of these social conservative elites: what more do they want him to say or do? saying he's "never agreed" with Roe is about as plain a position on abortion rights as one can take in such a polarized climate.

What frustrates John McCain (and his advisers) about the establishment media:

Items that include head-scratching sentences like this: "If, as conservatives believe, McCain's liberal stands on gays and abortion kill his GOP primary chances..."

Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL 08) alienated many labor supporters when she voted for CAFTA last fall. Now she's hoping unions, which comprised 49 percent of her PAC money last cycle, don't prevent her re-election. Several unions are considering withholding their support for her in '06. The Teamsters have talked with GOP candidate David McSweeney (R) and are considering helping a third party candidate, Bill Scheurer. While labor voters aren't a sizable constituency in the affluent district, she'll need to turn out the Dem base to win one of the state's most pro-Bush districts.

Many of the same labor groups irked by Bean's voting record are also lukewarm about DCCC Chmn Rahm Emanuel's recruitment of Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) to run next door in IL 06. If Duckworth is the nominee, she'll face state Sen Peter Roskam (R), who has worked with unions during his tenure in the state legislature. It would be ironic if labor's lack of enthusiasm for these Dems helped tip these seats to the GOP. If that happened, the first political casualties of last year's labor split could be IL Dems. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Seems so, folks.

From a question and answer session with the Desert Sun:

"Who do you think will be the GOP's candidate for president in 2008?"

"A. This is the first year I can remember, the first election that there's no acknowledged frontrunner. It's wide open. A number of people think it will be McCain, I hope not. I like George Allen."

"Q. Why not McCain?"

"A. I don't think he's conservative, pure and simple."

------

Still, as one member of a rival camp e-mails: "I like George Allen is not the same as I support George Allen (to the exclusion of all other candidates)."

Some GOP sources suggest that '06 may be tough for the party. Dems are excited by the prospects afforded to them by the nat'l landscape and seem poised to re-take the state legislature, where they currently face a tied Sen and a 2-seat deficit in the House. Re-taking the legislature would create a new crop of rising stars for Dems, but each party has its share of 20-somethings who we may be following in 5, 10 or 15 years. [REID WILSON]

Opening up our presidential notebooks, here's a look at some upcoming calendar items featuring potential '08 events:

On 2/2, NY Gov. George Pataki returns to IA for three days.

On 2/3, MA Gov. Mitt Romney returns to his homestate of Michigan for a major state party fundraiser in Oakland Co. (Romney has a short trip to NH on 1/27). Also on 2/3, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks in Orlando. And Maj. Leader Bill Frist is in NH.

On 2/10, Sen. George Allen speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in VA, as does Newt Gingrich. Also: Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner does the NH Dem Party's 100 Club Dinner.

On 2/23-24, Romney raises money for SC GOPers.

On 2/27, Frist is set to deliver a big economic policy address to the Detroit Economic Club.

On 3/2, AR Gov. Mike Huckabee spends the day in SC, attending events in York and Charleston Cos.

On 3/9, Allen, Barbour, Huckabee, Romney, Frist, and others speak at the Southern GOP Leadership Conference in Memphis.

On 3/13, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will keynote the GA Dem's J-J dinner in Atlanta.

On 3/24, Allen raises money for Sen. Jim DeMint in SC.

On 4/4, Frist speaks to the Iowa Health System Spring Forum in Des Moines.

BTW: A Warner trip to Iowa is in the works for late winter/early spring.

Republican sources said this a.m. that industrialist John Raese will announce he's running for Senate in WV.

Dem Robert Byrd is the incumbent.

Raese informed the WV State GOP and the NRSC of his decision late yesterday.

Sources expect Raese to release a statement today or tomorrow.

Raese, widely known in the state because of his corporate stewardship and his '84 SEN/88 Gov runs, was asked to consider a bid by senior Republicans in Washington.

With race's expected entrance, at least one other GOP candidate, ad agency exec George Johnson, will drop out. Others, like Iraq war vet Hiram Lewis, optometrist Zane Lawhorn and '04 congressional candidate Rick Snuffer are likely to stay in the race, at least for a little while. [MARC AMBINDER]

Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) -- an ambitious, second-term member from suburban Nashville who rode to victory in '02 after making her name as a conservative state senator in the TN GOP's intra-party battle over creating a state income tax -- will challenge House Conference Chair Deborah Pryce (R-OH) should there be a contest for the leadership post when the House comes back into session next week.

Blackburn spokesman Ryan Loskarn confirmed the heretofore rumors to The Hotline, by saying his boss "will be a contender" and taking a thinly veiled swipe at what critics view as the incumbent's chief shortcoming. Loskarn: [Blackburn] "has worked hard independently and as part of the Conference team to address the GOP's communication problem and won't shy away from greater responsibility."

Whether or not there will even be race for the position, though, is yet to be determined. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

After being rewarded the Congressman Brian Baird and Rachel Nugent Scholarship, Centralia College student Kevin Nelson, in a letter he later wrote, noted he "promptly mailed the scholarship board a thank you note."

A gentleman, he is. But Nelson received a letter in response to his response -- from Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) himself.

After criticizing Nelson's note as "not very impressive to say the least," Baird offered Nelson some "friendly and helpful" suggestions, regarding the length, stationery and tone appropriate for a "sincere and heartfelt expression of gratitude." According to Nelson, Baird's response was received "roughly five months later."

Typed on scholarship stationary, Baird also sent the letter to the Centralia College Scholarship Office.

And how did we find out about this? Mr. Nelson, it seems, sent the letter to WA GOPers and urged them to forward it everyone who might find it interesting.

Baird comm. dir. Meghan O'Shaughnessy: "He's a former college professor. He had his educator hat on. It's unfortunate that Mr. Nelson has taken it to this extreme."

UPDATE: Rep./Dr. Baird wrote in to say that we misspelled "stationery." For which we humbly apologize...

Tomorrow, a labor-funded adjunct of '05 Democratic efforts to beat down Social Security reform will rebrand itself as a permanent companion for the party's legislative and communication initiatives.

Americans United (without the "for Protection of Social Security) has marching orders to magnify the Democratic agenda in states and to counter positive press Bush and GOPers generate outside the Beltway.

The hallmarks are all there -- the McEntee press conferences, the Woodhouse e-mails, the Molstre strategizing -- the close contact with Dem leaders. Who's new? Karen Olick, an ex-CoS to Sen. Barbara Boxer, who will run the group.

Topping the agenda: the group will promote the Dems' version of lobbying reform -- or, The Honest Leadership Initiative. Expect them to bust into gear after the President's state of the union address next week. If the President proposes an expansion of health savings accounts or touts immigration reform, AU will coordinate opposition efforts state-by-state.

Money for the entity comes from labor unions like AFSCME and from wealthy liberals.

Will Progress for America pivot after Alito to help GOPers?

Stay tuned....

He's not yet a declared candidate for conference chair -- in part because there's no race yet and there may not be -- but GOP conf. vice-chair Jack Kingston (R-GA) is tending to his reputation as a forward-thinker.

A Dear Colleague letter he sent today is a -- dare we say it -- Contract With America-like agenda for GOPers to drive legislation with in '06 and a guide for winning nationalized midterm contests in November.

Kingston would create a "BRAC-type" commission to find ways to trim the government. He favors zero-based budgeting, sunset provisions attached to all new government programs and unspecified earmark reform.

The second plank speaks for itself: "A balanced immigration policy that secures the nation’s borders and deters illegal immigration and criminal activity."

Kingston also promotes a focus on energy independence, and on a tax code that is "simple, fair and honest."

Oh by the way: It was Newt Gingrich who convinced Kingston to run for GA statehouse and then for Congress. [MARC AMBINDER]

Thousands of pastors and clergy attending a major evangelical soul-saving conclave in Orlando, FL tomorrow will hear from a most surprising guest: Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani, a supporter of abortion rights and gay rights, has never publicly identified himself as an evangelical. He is a practicing Catholic. And he's known as a centrist Republican with libertarian instincts on some social issues.

Matthew Mahoney, a Giuliani spokesman, said the mayor was "in town for another speech and was invited to speak" at the pastors' conference. He will not be paid for his appearance, Mahoney said.

The Global Pastors Network's "Billion Souls Pastors Conference" links Christian captains of industry with front-line evangelizers. The proximate goal: to get pastors to think about vision and strategy.

The ultimate goal, according to the Global Pastors Network: to seed five million new churches worldwide, which, in turn, will bring one billion men and women to Christ within ten years. (The phone number of GPN: 1-866-WIN-THEM)

Here's part of a GPN pitch: "For pastors who want to plant a stake in that billion souls, this is the event that will help to ensure that it becomes harder each day for a soul to die without Christ because you are doing your part and leading a church of active soul-winners."

Other speakers include the man Christianity Today called the "gold standard" of Pentecostalism, Jack Hayford, relationship expert Gary Smalley, dispensationalist John Hagee, pastor of a mega church, gospel singer Billy Joe Daugherty, Assemblies of God superintendent Dr. Thomas Trask, Carlos Beiart, the pastor of Argentina's largest church, Walt Disney World president Al Weiss, and Jerry Falwell. [MARC AMBINDER]

As the Hotline noted today, Richard Tarrant, a GOP Senate candidate in VT, returned more than $4K to Broward Co. Florida on 1/23 after acknowledging that he and his wife claimed improperly homestead exemptions in two states -- FL and VT.

It's a common error for families with homes in more than one state; if you claim an exemption in one, you usually can't claim an exemption in another.

Tarrant made his fortune in VT and made plans to move to FL in '02. That's where his wife, Deb, was living. But Tarrant decided his heart was with his company, and he was recruited by national Republicans to run against Bernie Sanders (I) for Jim Jeffords; Senate seat. Tarrant called the experience, according to Burlington Free Press, a lesson in politics.

A second NRSC recruit may face political questions because of a similar, although not entirely analogous living arrangement.

John Raese, a well-known West Virginia industrialist, lives with his wife Liz and two daughters in a sun-baked mansion abutting the intercoastal waterway in Palm Beach, Co. Florida.

The Raeses love their home; Liz Raese volunteers at her daughters' school nearby. And for the past several years, Florida law has rewarded their fealty by subtracting $25,000 from their tax assessments -- a homestead exemption that any permanent resident of the state can claim. [MARC AMBINDER]

One of the earliest and loudest supporters off the Hill for Rep. John Shadegg's (R-AZ) bid for Maj Leader was The Club for Growth.

But has their endorsement translated into Shadegg endorsements from some of The Club's closest allies in the House?

Not yet.

Of the 17 Club-endorsed GOPers from '04 currently serving in the House, only 2 are publicly backing the AZ'an: Rep's Jeff Flake (AZ) and Connie Mack (FL).

5 are with Roy Blunt: Rep's Gohmert (TX), Westmoreland (GA), Jindal (LA), Poe (TX) and McHenry (NC).

2 have endorsed John Boehner: Rep's McMorris (WA) and Sessions (TX).

Now we know that some of Shadegg's supporters (the names Ryan, Pence and Hensarling jump to mind) are Club-friendly, but of those members they endorsed in '04, 8 are still holding out. Or are they?

What say you Rep's Musgrave (C0), Lungren (CA), Price (GA), Sodrel (IN), Inglis (SC), Drake (VA) and DeLay (TX)?

Safe to say: The Hotline was not invited to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this year. But we think we could have made the case to our bosses that the rufflings of snow in Europe can produce a mighty wind across the pond.

Davos was where a CNN President blundered and later resigned. Where Al Gore first gave his famous power-point presentation on global warming. Where Bill Clinton raised millions for his AIDS projects. Where. John Kerry managed to impress Bill Safire with his sober mien and "earnest demeanor."

This year, the star American politicians include Ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Warner might use the Davos experience to convince the global business/political intelligencia -- there really is no better way to describe the participants --that he can grasp the finer points of foreign policy.

Dems know that John Edwards' boffo performance at another major global meet in '04 valued to the top of Kerry's vice presidential list. Before the Bilderberg Society conclave in June of 04, Edwards needed major party poo-bahs to bless his newly-acquired foreign policy credentials.

After, he had a feather in his cap. Al Hunt, the doyenne of Washington Democratic establishment jouranlists, a Carvillian, a very smart observer, wrote in his Wall Street Journal column that he had been told about Edwards's smashing peformance.

(Quote: "...two of the biggest figures in the Democratic establishment, neither big Edwards fans earlier, came back raving about his performance.")

May the conspiracy theorists have it right....

More confirmed speakers for March's Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis: today, the TN GOP will announce that Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will speak.

That's in addition to Sens: Allen, Alexander, Barbour, Frist and Govs Romney and Huckabee. (And others).

Our requisite reminder: The Hotline will conduct the presidential straw poll of attendees. And bloggers: join us!

With many news networks joining the podcasting world, Hotline decided to give you a rundown of how and where to get your favorite shows. For a primer, check the jump.

The Networks

A podcast primer follows the jump.

Did NRSC Chairman Elizabeth Dole know that Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) was going up with an Abramoff ad when she held her press briefing Monday?

We ask because one day after Dole told reporters that corruption was "not something that is going to get a lot of traction" in the '06 cycle, Burns, one of her most vulnerable incumbents, aired a TV ad (his first this cycle) in which he mentions Jack Abramoff by name and tacitly acknowledges that the scandal is causing him headaches. Sounds like traction to us.

Brian Nick, the NRSC's communications director, said Dole meant to suggest that corruption is not gaining traction as a partisan issue that can be used exclusively against GOPers. "It depends on what your definition of traction is," he said. [JOHN MERCURIO]

As with CO, IN features a very strong, very popular Dem mayor who's considering a bid for Gov. But unlike CO, Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson (D) will have to face an incumbent GOPer, Gov. Mitch Daniels, should he decide to make the race in '08. Several '06 races involving some of our stars will pit Peterson proteges against their Daniels counterparts in what are seen as preliminary surrogate battles, and while GOPers have lost ground in Marion Co., the state's largest, they're gaining elsewhere. The results of the surrogate wars could determine the outcome of IN for a long time to come. [REID WILSON]

Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) today teams up with Sen. Ben Nelson, the Democrat from NE, to introduce legislation creating a bipartisan ethics panel charged with recommending wholesale changes to the relationship between members of Congress and lobbyists.

They're calling it the The Commission to Strengthen Confidence in Congress (CSCC)and have consciously modeled it after the 9-11 commission.

Three points.

1. NRSC chairman Elizabeth Dole yesterday said Nelson was vulnerable to a challenge by GOPers. (She especially liked Pete Ricketts and praised his Hagel-esque early television ads.)

2. Coleman, who nearly defeated Dole for the NRSC post, plans to join Nelson's weekly NE media conference call today to discuss the bill. We presume he'll include enconmiums for the NE senator.

Coleman wants a leadership post eventually, and it's safe to assume he wouldn't dare help a Dem brother out if doing so would render that Dem measurably less vulnerable.

BTW: No word on what Sen. Frist/Sen. Reid think about their mavericks and their commission idea.

If IN Sen. Evan Bayh (D) runs for president, he would model his domestic agenda on his gubernatorial accomplishments.

One major item, according to Bayh advisers, is the 21st Century Scholars program. Passed when Bayh was GOV in 1990, it guaranteed free college tuition for high school kids who earned good grades and kept out of trouble. In part because of the program, IN's "continuation rate" -- the percentage of students who matriculated to college after high school -- shot from 40th best to the 9th best in the country.

Bayh brags about this initiative during in his national stump speech. And today, IA Dems rewarded him politically.

Republican Senate candidates are on offense in states won by John Kerry in '04 and are poised to keep their majority despite a challenging political environment, NRSC chairman Elizabeth Dole said today.

Speaking to reporters at a pen-and-pad briefing, a well-prepared Dole defended her stewardship of the campaign committee, which has lagged behind the DSCC in raising money and has publicly failed to recruit top-tier candidates for races once thought to be competitive.

Republicans must defend one open seat to Democrats' four and hold a five-seat majority in the Senate. Three candidates the NRSC is backing in "blue" states -- LG Michael Steele in MD, Tom Kean in NJ and Mark Kennedy in MN -- face no primary opponent.

Dole said the NRSC would not meddle in two blue state GOP primaries -- NE and MI -- though she seemed most excited by the candidacies of Mike Bouchard in MI and Pete Ricketts in NE.

Still, Dole offered a few hints that the rocky year for GOPers in Washington could prove a burden in '06.

Asked whether GOP candidates want President Bush to campaign with them in '06, Dole said "it was not something you could generalize."

On ethics, she waved several thick binders of research put together to show that Democrats, too, received money from associates of Jack Abramoff. Internal NRSC polling, Dole said, showed that the Abramoff scandal is not "resonating" with voters, though she declined to elaborate.

The GOP, she said, had plans to stop Democrats from using ethics to nationalize the Senate races.

"You know what we're doing to do? We're going to pass legislation," said Dole. It would be, she said, "bipartisan legislation" to solve a "bipartisan" problem.

Dole dismissed worries of some Republicans that the start-up woes plaguing the new Medicare prescription drug benefit could hurt GOP candidates in November. She called the problems "hiccups" before acknowledging that they were more grave. She said the program itself represented "an accomplishment that ought to be recognized."

Nationally, Dole said Republicans will distinguish themselves from Democrats by highlighting the GOP's commitment the "safety and security of Americans in the U.S. and overseas." She said that Dems have offered nothing but "cut and run" in response.

We're not sure if this has any larger meaning beyond the facts on the ground in each state, but check out SURVEY USA's state-by-state GOV approval numbers.

Of the Dem govs' with the lowest approval ratings, 4 out of 5 come from blue states. And similarly, 4 out of the 5 least popular GOP govs' come from red states.

The flip side is that 6 of the 10 highest-rated govs are red in blue or blue in red.

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/50StateGovernor060119Approval.htm

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) will make official his endorsement of Rep. John Shadegg for majority leader tomorrow.

A Flake spokesman confirmed that Flake will endorse a candidate -- but wouldn't confirm said candidate's identity.

No matter; it's no secret that Flake was among those encouraging Shadegg to enter the race, and the auburn-haired pork buster has much affection for his fellow RSCer.

Worth noting that our tally of leadership race endorsees today has Rep. Roy Blunt topping 90 -- a gain of five names from last week.

UPDATE: Though Shadegg's camp won't release his name, Rep. Jim Ryun (R-KS) co-signed a "Dear Colleague" touting the AZ'an on Friday, and Ryun's office confirms to us that they are backing Shadegg. So, for those keeping score at home -- or in certain marble buildings on either side of Independence Ave -- Shadegg now has 10 public endorsements.

As NRSC chair Elizabeth Dole prepares for a pen-and-pad with reporters later this afternoon, the DSCC's exec. dir., J.B. Poersch, is sending around a pre-buttal.

We'll have details of Dole's briefing later; the DSCC memo is after the jump.

THe Supreme Court, in a unanimous opinion released moments ago, said that a Wisconsin pro-life group deserves to have a lower court determine whether an anti-abortion issue ad it ran in '06 mentioning Sen. Russ Feingold was legitimate.

The upshot of this decision:

The Court will probably have to write a new definition for just what constitutes a legitimate "issue ad." It also means that groups who accused of running "sham issue ads" will get the chance to prove their legitimacy to federal judges. (On the other hand, might this ruling also attach a presumption of illegality to such ads?)

Here's what election prof. Rick Hasen saus:

"This unanimous per curiam opinion makes essentially two points. First, that a footnote in the Supreme Court's earlier 5-4 McConnell opinion was not intended to preclude "as applied" challenges. That is, if corporate or union plaintiffs can prove that they are running "genuine issue ads," it can be unconstitutional to apply the electioneering communications provisions to them (at least insofar as barring the use of corporate or treasury funds to pay for these ads). Second, that the lower court opinion was unclear as to whether it held that the ad in question (one that attacked Senators Feingold and Kohl (only Feingold was running for reelection) for their position on the filibustering of judicial nominees) was really an election ad that McConnell held it was permissible to regulate.

"What is the significance of this ruling? In the short term, the greatest significance is that it allows the Supreme Court to put these issues over to another day. With Justice O'Connor leaving and a new Justice presumably coming in soon, the Court would have faced the possibility of reargument or, assuming Justice O'Connor would have recused, an affirmance by an equally divided Court. Reargument would have thrust the two newest Justices into a difficult position where their votes presumably would be dispositive."

In 8 days, Democrats around the country will be collectively wondering, "who?" when they sit down and bother to watch the person charged with delivering Democratic response to Pres. Bush's State of the Union.

VA Gov. Tim Kaine will have been in office exactly 16 days when he makes his national debut. As bizarre of a decision it was for Democrats Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Bill Richardson (the three charged with picking the SOTU responder) to choose Kaine, it's not nearly as bizarre as Kaine accepting the invite, or so argues Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report.

I think Nathan's absolutely right. In fact, Gov. Kaine, there's still time to say no. [CHUCK TODD]

Note: Check out the update at the bottom of this post.

What was Al Gore doing at Sundance? Check out these and these pics.

A number of our '03 stars are either on their way up or building bases to move up eventually. Meanwhile, Dems face an embarrasment of riches in IL 04, where Rep. Luis Gutierrez's (D) expected '07 bid for Chicago Mayor may pit a number of rising minority stars against one another. In all, though, both IL parties managed to field a candidate in each CD (see 12/20/05's Hotline). And looking at the quality of both parties' benches, that trend may continue. [REID WILSON]

There are a lot of fuming Democrats in official Washington this weekend thanks to Harry Reid.

I've been inundated with calls and emails wondering if Reid, in jest (I think) has conceded the 2006 elections 10 months in advance.

Reid's decision to apologize to the 33 GOP senators who were singled out in an official release from Reid's message shop capped what's been a weak week to be a Democrat. This despite a climate that's tilted toward the Democrats.

Of the folks I've heard from about this bizarre apology, there's a split on whether the original release was a good idea or not. About half believe, no-holds bar is the appropriate approach for a party that finds itself constantly under attack from the RNC, the NRSC and the conservative message machine of talk radio, conservative columnists and Fox News gabbers.

The other half believes the hit was wrong because it wasn't good and it was haphazard. If anything, these folks think Reid should have only apologized for putting out a bad hit piece. [CHUCK TODD]

"US government investigators probing Washington's explosive Congressional bribery scandal centered on disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff recently visited Hong Kong, according to a witness interviewed by the authorities."

Hat tip: Roy Temple's Fired Up America! blog.

Winner: Ex-Gov. Mark Warner:

"I leave soon for a trip to London and a policy conference in Switzerland so the schedule stays very full."

Rep. Bob Ney's (R) plans to run for re-election, even if indicted, drew initial criticism from his state's GOP Chairman Bob Bennett. He said Ney should step down if indicted and, if not, the party would find a primary opponent.

Bennett later backtracked from his comments, but he's voicing the private concerns of GOPers in Congress. They fear Ney could become a liability for the party. While Tom DeLay was indicted over an obscure TX campaign finance law, a Ney indictment might be sought for bribery, a charge most voters understand.

With the GOP proposing its own extensive lobbying reforms, it would appear hypocritical for the NRCC to pour money into an indicted Ney's re-election coffers. His insistence on running also could threaten the party's chances for holding the normally safe GOP seat. History offers some examples: DeLay is polling poorly against his Dem opponent in a heavily conservative district after his legal woes and connections to Abramoff. Ex-Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D) lost his solidly Dem district to a political novice after his indictment. Ney's staff insists he's done nothing wrong, and remains popular in the district. But if his legal predicament worsens, will he be able to avoid hurting his own party? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Just in from the office of Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL)

ORLANDO, FL -- In light of the Bush Administration’s decision to issue a license Friday allowing the Cubans to participate in Major League Baseball's "World Baseball Classic" Senator Martinez issued the following statement:

"This is a disappointing reversal. Even though this decision allows the Cuban government to field a team, that team will not be wholly representative of Cuba. The Cuban government has already announced that Cuban players who defected to the U.S. to play in Major League Baseball will not be allowed to play for Cuba.

"Just like other Major Leaguers can play for their home-countries like David Ortiz and Miguel Olivo of the Dominican Republic or Johan Santana and Miguel Cabrera of Venezuela, so too should Orlando and Livan Hernandez and Jose Contreras and any other Cubans in the Majors be allowed to play for Cuba. I call on Major League Baseball to insist they play. If this is about baseball and not politics as MLB has suggested, then take the politics out of it and let Cuban-born players compete for Cuba. They are Cuban; they have a right to represent Cuba if they so choose and that right ought to be respected.
"

Kudos to St. Louis Post-Dispatch Washington bureau reporter Deirdre Shesgreen.

She is the only person who, amid all the "Blunt/Boehner K St Connection" hubbub, has reported an overlooked fact: Roy Blunt has a lobbyist daughter to go with his lobbyist wife and lobbyist son.

As Shesgreen pointed out in her 1/12 piece on the Maj Leader race, Amy Blunt is a registered congressional lobbyist.

A quick internet search reveals the A. Blunt works as part of the "Governmental Affairs" division in the Kansas City office of Blackwell Sanders Peper Martin, one of Missouri's largest law firms.

Members of the Republican National Committee waded publicly into the immigration policy debate today, a rare acknowledgement that a consequential glob of the Republican base has revolted against President Bush's influence on the party's immigration platform.

But the author of a resolution that rejected Bush's preference for a legal framework to deal with the millions of undocumented workers living in the U.S. withdrew the measure right before a vote.

Randy Pullen, a RNC member from Arizona, said it was clear that his resolution would fail and he did not want to "put people on the record" against the wishes of the majority of the party.

Still, he said, "it shows we could have a discussion like this."

A different immigration measure, pulled together with the support of the White House, passed overwhelmingly. It included strong language endorsing tougher border security and rejected -- though it did not define -- amnesty for undocumented workers.

"The majority of the Republican national committee recognizes that we have to meet our economic needs without creating a magnet for illegal immigrants," said RNC chairman Ken Mehlman.

Members of the party's national committee tend to trip over themselves to show fealty to the White House, and public dissent from a presidential priority is extremely rare. The party had no choice but to consider Pullen's resolution formally. And the rules also make it tough to close the debate to the press.

Republican officials did not want a public spat about immigration policy. But Pullen insisted he was not pressured by the White House or the RNC to withdraw his resolution. And he blasted the media, specifically the Los Angeles Times, for interpreting his dissent as evidence of a deep rift within the party.

But even Mehlman acknowledged the debate, calling it "healthy" for a majority party.

Seeking to buck up the party faithful, White House DCoS Karl Rove emerged today to defend President Bush's signature initiatives.

He told members of the Republican National Committee that Bush's record on tax cuts, on the Patriot Act and on judicial appointments make him one of the country's "most significant" presidents in modern history.

And he urged Republicans to confidently debate those policies as credible and tangible accomplishments that voters will embrace in November's elections.

The president's chief political adviser said nothing about corruption scandals in Congress or the Valerie Plame leak investigation.

Rove said Republicans "welcome a fair-minded" debate "about the meaning of the courts today" because "the force and wisdom of the Founders are on our side."

He said the conduict of Democrats on the judiciary committee was "ugly" and "backfired" by engendering sympathy for Judge Sam Alito.

He told Republicans to take pride in their impulse to cut taxes and to remind voters that Democrats oppose efforts to make tax cuts permanent.

Rove treated terrorism and Iraq as one subject.

"The global terrorist movement would be emboldened and made more dangerous than ever" if Democratic leaders got their way, he said. "To retreat before victory would be a reckless act, and this presdient and our party would not allow it."

He also called the NSA's domestic eavesdropping efforts critical to the war on terror.

"Let me be as clear as I can be: if Al Qaeda is calling someone in America, it is in our national security [interest] to know who they are and why they are calling."

Rove sounded what for him was an unusual concession: "Our politican opponents are our fellow citizens not our enemies. Honorable people should have honest political diffeences. We should strive for civility and intellectual integrity."

But, he said later, The Democratic Party is "ossified, drained of energy" and pessimistic.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman is optimistic that fellow party members won't rebuke President Bush on immigration.

Members of the national committee will a debate a resolution condemning so-called "guest worker" programs that allow undocumented immigrants to register with the government and continue to work in the US. The resolution opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants. Passage would suggest that the party's base is at odds with President Bush.

A separate resolution, sponsored by allies of the White House, is full of macho words like "strengthening" and "bedrock" and "rule of law" -- but also includes a call for a "functional" guest worker program.

Speaking with unusual frankness, Mehlman said members of his party who have no practical solution for the undocumented immigrants working in the U.S. today are simply "wrong."

And he predicted passage of the alternate resolution, which incorporates language the White House has adopted in recent months to try and frame the issue.

The President's dream of broad amnesty is dead. House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist want to start with broad border enforcement legislation.

While the taste of that carrot still lingers, the leaders would then endorse a guest worker program and come up with an acceptable way to guide illegal immigrants in the US to either quasi-legal status or back to their home countries.

Despite the white-hot rhetoric of Rep. Ton Tancredo and genuine pressure from lawmakers in Southern and Western states, both leaders bet that a majority in both chambers will ultimately support comprehensive legislation. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Hotline's John Mercurio writes in his weekly column that the Jack Abramoff scandal will have a far-reaching impact on the midterm campaign season. In '06, issues like war, peace and prosperity will compete for ink and air with lobbying reform, financial disclosure and privately-funded foreign travel.

An influential law and lobbying firm will host a breakfast fundraiser for Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) in early February, according to a copy of an invitation sent to lobbyists yesterday.

The political action committee of Venable LLP, known as Ven-PAC, is listed as the sponsor of the fundraiser, as is Tom Quinn, a close friend of Kennedy's and a Venable partner.

Venable employs more than 450 lawyers and lobbyists and ranks consistently among the most powerful law/lobby firms in the country. The DC-based firm is bipartisan; ex-DHS undersecretary Asa Hutchinson is a Venable partner specializing in Homeland Security. Hutchinson is running for AR GOV.

Quinn's lobbying practice, according to Venable's website, emphasizes his expertise in " financial institutions, insurance, health care, and matters involving the Federal Reserve Board, the Comptroller of the Currency, the United States Treasury and the Banking, Finance, Commerce, Energy, and Ways and Means Committees of the United States Senate and House of Representatives."

Quinn worked on Kennedy's 1980 presidential campaign.

This cycle, Ven-PAC has given 55 percent of its more than $74,000 contributions to Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Venable has no connection to Jack Abramoff, though it has received its share of press scrutiny. [MARC AMBINDER]

Buried in a Billings Gazette article on Sen. Conrad Burns' fundraising switcharoo was this nugget:

"Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., plans to hold a fundraiser at a Bon Jovi concert on Feb. 2 at the MCI Center in downtown Washington in a skybox owned by Cassidy and Associates. Baucus held a fundraiser at a skybox there in March 2001 that was hosted by an Abramoff associate. The event raised questions because it was not reported correctly at the time. Baucus has since donated $1,892, the value of the in-kind donation, to Montana tribal colleges."

The Hotline's Chuck Todd writes that Dems have the "not them" part figured out, but "why us" requires more work.

RNC chair Ken Mehlman -- the man who never adds the "ic" to "Democrat" -- on Friday plans to blast the rival party as weak, wobbly and stuck in the past.

But in his remarks, set for the RNC's annual meeting in DC, Mehlman tempers his partisan stemwinding by acknowledging that Dem leaders do indeed "love their country" and by warning his own party to root out internal corruption before public trust is further compromised.

There are plenty of applause lines; of Judge Sam Alito's nomination hearings, Mehlman says "Some of modern liberalism's most disappointing features were also on display." (He's referring to Ted Kennedy.)

The narrative spine of the speech consists of his assertion that Republicans learn from the past to prepare for today's challenges while Democrats can't break free from the chains of special interest liberalism.

"There is one last area in which we must remember the lessons of the past," Mehlman says. "One of the oldest lessons of history is that power corrupts."

Mehlman asks his fellow Republicans to join him in taking a stand against corruption, right here, right now."

"As Republican chairman, I am proud of my party and loyal to our members. But if Republicans are guilty of illegal or inappropriate behavior, they should pay the price and suffer the consequences."

More of Mehlman's reform talk after the jump.

Blunt, Boehner and Shadegg are all scrambling to accrue as many public endorsements as possible. But in these days of scandal, there are a few members of the Conference whose vote they need, but whose public support they don't necessarily want front and center.

With no further explanation needed, here is the list:

Tom DeLay: Uncommitted
Bob Ney: Boehner
John Doolittle: Blunt
Richard Pombo: Boehner
Don Sherwood: Blunt
Duke Cunningham: d/q

The latest Diageo/Hotline poll shows Sen. John McCain defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton 52%-36% among regis. voters in a WH '08 match-up. This is alone is not earth shattering as it reaffirms previous results, but this poll takes the next steps and pins McCain and Clinton against generic counterparts, resulting in some notable numbers.

WH '08 General Matchups
              All Dem Ind GOP                     All Dem Ind GOP
McCain        52% 21% 57% 82%       McCain^       36% 15% 30% 68%
Clinton       36  66  32   7        Generic Dem   29  59  19   7
Undec/Oth     12  13  11  11        Undec/Oth     35  26  51  25

              All Dem Ind GOP

Clinton^      41% 72% 37% 12% 

Generic GOP   39   7  36  74

Undec/Oth     20  21  27  14 

Note that when McCain goes up against a generic Dem candidate, his overall support drops significantly, not just among Dems and indies, but also among GOPers. It's not that GOPers are crossing the aisle, but that they become undecided. The opposite happens to Dems when Clinton is pegged against a generic GOPer -- her Dem support jumps up to 72%. Now this is can mean a number of different things:

Does McCain become easier for GOPers to elect when the "other" is Clinton? Does her liberalism make McCain easier to swallow? Or is McCain just so attractive to Dems that he distracts from Clinton's base? One thing this certainly shows is that Clinton is beatable. If a generic GOPer can come within 2% of Clinton in a WH match-up, that spells some trouble on the horizon for Dems. The 20% of undecided voters will undoubtedly be the deciding factor in this generic race. The question is, who would fill that spot?

At this stage of the WH '08 cycle, it would be interesting to do more of these generic tests, showing the potential for weakness and strengths with the respective bases. Of course the caveat becomes name ID. With the exception of Rudy Giuliani, McCain and Clinton are really the only ones with the name ID to offer a formidable match-up. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

The Bush Administration today sent to Capitol Hill a 40-page unclassified defense of the National Security Agency's domestic collection program.

You can download it here.

Two Congressional Research Service reports cast doubt on the administration's contention that the president has the inherent authority to order warrentless domestic electronic surveillance.

Welcome to the list Evan Bayh -- you've got some catching up to do. Bayh took a trip to Iraq and got some TV time out of it -- making some stop by the cable shows. John McCain makes his first TV appearance of the year, going with CBS' "Face the Nation." Joe Biden got about 8 minutes on the "Today" show -- which is a gold-mine of TV time for a broadcast morning show. Newt Gingrich continues to enjoy the privileges of being a FNC commentator. [EMILY GOODIN]

Remember Chris Cillizza's report that Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) planned to celebrate his birthday at the tony Washington headquarters of the lobbying giant Cassidy and Associates next Wednesday?

Change of plans.

The party/fundraiser will now be held in the politically safer environs of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Would-be guests still need to pony up $1K to attend.

But Burns no longer has to worry about the DSCC videotaping his entrance into the HQ of one of the city's largest lobbying firms. [MARC AMBINDER]

Did anybody else notice the volumes-speaking absence of House Min Whip Steny Hoyer at the Dems' reform rollout yesterday? You know, the one that garnered front-page coverage and was attended by dozens of Dems from both chambers including all the other members of their leadership. That one.

His mere absence may just titillate the likes of us and a few others. But when quotes like the below also pop up, the Pelosi-Hoyer intramural rivalry threatens to divert from the Dems' message.

From a Bloomberg story this a.m.:

Representative Steny Hoyer of Maryland, the No. 2 House Democrat, said the Republicans, not lax regulations, were to blame for the ethics scandals. ``It is not the rules that are the issue, it's the character of the players that is the issue here,'' Hoyer said in an interview. ``That is what I want to focus on, the culture of corruption.''

This from the House Dems' point man on K St. outreach -- as we are helpfully reminded by his own office.

Asked about their Whip's no show, Pelosi's office pointed out that Hoyer had a previous commitment raising money for Dems in FL and that he had issued a supportive statement in lieu of showing up. That he would miss the big show was no biggie, they said.

Hoyer's office also downplayed the absence, noting that the trip to FL was "long-scheduled." Again, nothing there.

Perhaps not, but why -- at this of all times -- let anything get in the way of your message?

A plank in Sen. John McCain's lobbying reform legislation would bar registered lobbyists from being treasurer of a campaign committee or a PAC.

And not two weeks ago, Sen. George Allen signed Ed Gillespie, ex-RNC chair and current lobbyist, to chair his PAC.

Now: McCain's legislation was written well before Gillespie's hire was made public and campaign finance reformers for years have tried to reduce the influence of lobbyists on fundraising. (Even Rep. David Dreier's PAC treasurer is a lobbyist.) Still...

One other reform note: Speaker Dennis Hastert, in his latest blog post, addresses concerns that some upstanding folks (and lobbyists) "feel that some of this reform is overkill and all we need to do is punish those who broke the rules."

Says Hastert: "But I think we need to go further if we want, as an institution, to regain the trust of the American people."

He also addresses "earkmark" reform, coming down on the side of transparency. "I am interested in the ideas that some of my colleagues are putting forward to make sure that this is a much more open and transparent process where those who suggest an earmark are accountable to the public for the merit of the projects being funded."

BTW: It's not true that most RSCers want to ban earmarks; to the contrary, most have taken advantage of them. RSCers seem to be pushing for transparency, overall. It seems like the RSC hard liners might accept a compromise: If a member wants to add an ear mark to a spending bill, he or she should make the request publicly and permit enough time to debate the spending on merit. The easiest way to do that: embrace Rep. Jeff Flake's bill, HR-1642, which would forbid lawmakers from attaching ear marks to committee or conference reports.

Finally, Hastert wants to "tackle" 527s. Dems, allied with deep-pocketed labor unions, use them to fund GOTV and independent expenditure campaigns. The GOP has an easier time funding those activities through parties.

Says Hastert: "A lot of these groups came out last year. They basically raise tons of money from anonymous donors and then use it to run distorted campaign ads. We saw a lot of them in the weeks before the hearings for Judge Alito, and we saw a lot of them crop up in the last election. In my opinion they have made our election more nasty and personal and less about issues. And the 527 groups are not accountable because they use a loophole to keep us from knowing who is donating the unlimited and unregulated money to put on these ads. Well, I for one intend to work very hard with John McCain and others to reform the way these 527 groups are run."

I think you all know that the State of the Union Address is January 31st. We're starting on our agenda right afterwards and that means working immediately on the Deficit Reduction Act, the Patriot Act, immigration reform, more accessible health care and the lobbying reform I was just talking about. And then we intend to move on to pension reform, extension of tax cuts, energy legislation and other measures that will help us sustain our economic growth and job creation. And we will continue to keep our focus on the War on Terror both abroad and at home.

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) has just endorsed John Shadegg's maj. leader campaign.

Pence, an influential leader of the Republican Study Conference, intended to wait until after the RSC heard from all the candidates at an end-of-January retreat.

"Given the addition of a prominent RSC member to the field and given that many members have already expressed a preference, it has become clear to me that an earlier, personal endorsement is now appropriate," Pence writes in a letter to RSC members.

"My choice is John Shadegg."

"John Shadegg is a proven conservative leader in Congress. During his years as chairman of the Republican Study Committee and the House Policy Committee, John Shadegg has demonstrated a passion for the conservative agenda and a heart to build bridges between the diverse members of our Republican conference."

Reps. Boehner and Shadegg have tag-teamed a press release to pressure Rep. Blunt into making a joint televised appearance with them.

"It is our understanding Roy has now declined invitations from two nationally-televised Sunday morning news programs to appear with us and directly discuss the issues facing the future of our Republican majority.

"It's unfortunate that at a time when House Republicans are having a serious conversation about our future, the candidate who claims to be the frontrunner has so far refused to engage in a debate about how we will reform the House and change the status quo.

"Our Members, our party, and our country deserve to hear all of the candidates in an open and honest debate about their vision for leading the House and helping retain and expand our Republican majority."

Responds Blunt's press secretary, Jessica Boulanger: "With every phone call and every meeting Congressman Blunt has with his colleagues, he is engaged in the vigorous debate over the future of our party. Congressman Blunt believes the most serious conversations at this crucial crossroads are best had in private, not in front of TV cameras. Over 117 of his colleagues like what they hear and are not at all bothered that he has taken his ideas directly to them and not Sunday talk show hosts."

One subtext here: there's suspicion among some of Blunt's supporters that his two opponents are secretly colluding on other, more substantive matters as well.

Our latest Diageo/Hotline poll conducted by Financial Dynamics finds that

-- the public's familiarity with Jack Abramoff doubled since we last polled his name; a plurality of voters don't know which party he belongs to; of those who say they do; a significant majority identify him as a Republican.

--nearly three-fourths of those surveyed believe that corruption is an equal problem in both parties

--that Washington corrupts politicians

--and that partisans believe the OTHER party is more corrupt than their own.

--More than two times as many independents say the GOP is more "immoral" than the Dems. But independents split when they are asked to consider which party is more "ethical."

Sources now confirm that Randall Tobias will be named as the President's nominee to replace Andrew Natsios at AID. [REID WILSON]

Does this guy, one of the best lawyers in DC, actually spend time...you know...with his paying clients?

From his Soft Money Hard Law website:

Requiem

It was getting late, really late. I had filed my story for the day, and now I was off to an evening engagement, even though I wanted to sleep so badly that I could have used a porcupine for a pillow and not noticed. A light rain had been falling on the streets of the Capital for some hours -- for days, it seemed.

Bob Bauer

Sources tell The Hotline that Sec/State Condoleezza Rice will announce a new administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development today at 10 a.m. The new appointee will replace outgoing administrator Andrew Natsios, who leaves the agency after nearly five years on the job.

One potential replacement is Randall Tobias, who has headed the admin's global AIDS initiative since '03. [REID WILSON]

Do House Republicans really want Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) to be their Leader?

((Update: Shadegg acquired the endorsement tonight of Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, the powerful chairman of the Judiciary Committee.))

We ask because even before he threw his hat in the ring last Friday, the ex-RSC chairman has received largely glowing press coverage. Well, besides that "Jack In The Box" story about how he received some Abramoff-connected money and used the black-hatted lobbyist's MCI Center skybox for a few events.

But besides that little hiccup, Shadegg's candidacy has been covered in an overwhelmingly positive light. And not just in the sympathetic conservative media and blogosphere. The Shadegg narrative in nearly all media accounts is: principled conservative and '94 Revolutionary who has not yielded to the temptations of the Beltway.

We don't suggest that this portrayal is inaccurate. In the context of the job he seeks, though, it is incomplete. Shadegg is a principled fiscal conservative -- and that has ramifications.

Rumors abound that Christine Pelosi, the daughter of the minority leader, is considering a run for supervisor in San Francisco?

Not so:

Here's a statement she sent Last Call! today: "Given my dozen years of work as an attorney and public servant for the City of San Francisco, the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the House of Representatives, it is a compliment to be asked to consider a run for public office and sadly not a surprise to come under ad hominem attack. I am currently hard at work directing a Congressional Candidates leadership training project, chairing the California Democratic Party Platform and serving as a local precinct captain. Contrary to rumor, I moved South of Market not to run for district supervisor but to be close to the ballyard where I can enjoy my beloved Giants, mindful that the last time Giants won the World Series, the Democrats won back the U.S. House and Senate."

Rain-soaked MoveOn activists heckled the roughly 90 lobbyists, libertarians, movement conservatives and Hill staffers who trooped into Grover Norquist's Wednesday Meeting this a.m.

But just last week, a MoveOn co-founder, Joan Blades, helped get Al Gore into that same meeting.

Gore relished the chance to "talk about global warming directly to the conservative base," a Dem activist with knowledge of the arrangements said.

George Soros, MoveOn's most famous financial backer, has also spoken at the meeting and encouraged Gore to take his global warming presentation there.

Blades, who knows Norquist, brokered the introduction.

This morning, the MoveOners outnumbered the counterprotestors about ten-to-one.

As Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) entered the building, a protestor noticed that he was wet and told him the group wanted to "drown Grover Norquist" in the rain.

Media who covered the event: Reuters, Cox, Roll Call, Getty Images, NBC, CBS, ABC, the Los Angeles Times, UPI, the AP, CNN, PBS, Hearst TV and Belo TV.

As Dems unveil their lobbying reform proposals...

...CREW, a collection of liberal Dems, are blasting both parties for reform proposals that are all hat and no cattle.

...GOPers are sending around a Dem blogger's post suggesting that Sen. Harry Reid believes it's the wrong time for Dems to "be engaged in constructive 'reform' proposals"...rather, it was time to "draw a line and to show how 'our side' differed dramatically from 'their side.'"

...Dems whisper that the REAL strategy behind the GOP lobbying reforms: to go SO far as to automatically trigger a court battle that would postpone and ultimately render meaningfless any reforms.

...BTW: Credit where credit is due: The DNC and Howard Dean were the first Dem entity to talk about the "culture of corruption."

Care to peek inside the K Street Project? That sensitive Republican project designed to rid lobbying firms and trade associations of Democrats and populate them with staunch conservative allies of lawmakers?

It's there, in plain view: at its website, www.kstreetproject.com.

The project's mission statement engages in a bit of misdirection.

The "K Street Project," it says, "is non-partisan research of political affiliation, employment background, and political donations of members in Washington DC's premier lobbying firms, trade associations, and industries."

In other words -- anyone who adheres to free market principles is a team player. Well, no. The process of researching the info may be non-partisan -- in the sense that Google searching is non-partisan -- but
the project has, in reality, made it harder for Dems of any ideological stripe to join K Street firms and lobbyists. And it's given senior Republicans on the Hill an unprecedented degree of input in the process.

The "research" component of the K Street Project website tracks lobbyist hires and uses FEC databases to discover what parties and candidates the potential recruits and hires have given to.

For example:

"The American Gas Association is seeking to hire a lobbyist, preferably a Democrat. Interested job candidates should contact Rick Shelby."

Or:

"Jack Thomas Tomarchio is now Director of Intelligence for the Department of Homeland Security. Prior, Tomarchio lobbied for Buchanan Ingersoll. Tomarchio has given political contributions to Representative Joe Hoeffel (D-PA), Representative Jim Gerlach (R-PA), Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA), Republican Federal Committee of Pennsylvania, and Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)."

The site asks for tips on potential firm and association hires. It does not mention Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX), who worked with Norquist in the 1990s to exploit the database in Congress and nominate pedigreed staffers to to fill open K Street jobs.

Senate GOP input for the K Street Project has been coordinated by several lawmakers, including Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA); until recently, maj. whip Roy Blunt's helped to guide the program in the House.

The irony of Democrats protesting their inability to join white shoe lobbying entities is beyond the scope of this post, and it's true that labor unions often possess a quiet veto of Dems appointed to government posts. Liberal interest groups certainly exercise their influence when Dems control the executive branch.

Still, Dems familiar with the history of what Brooks Jackson has called "Honest Graft" insist that they've never directed legislative favors to liberal interests in exchange for hiring -- or not hiring -- certain candidates. (Grover Norquist, not surprisingly, claims to have reams of evidence suggesting otherwise."

While it's true that Dems in power must negotiate between labor and corporate interests, and correct that Republicans, as Nick Confessore wrote in a partisan but smart Washington Monthly piece, ,demand total unity of purpose, of message, and in job-placement -- The Dems doesn't really need to worry that conservatives will suddenly rush to lobby for labor unions -- or that labor unions would hire them if they did. [MARC AMBINDER]

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) became the first Senate Dem to come out in favor of Sam Alito's confirmation to the Supreme Court. Considering Nelson's track record on Bush appointees, this isn't a surprise. What will be interesting is to see how many other Democrats follow Nelson's lead. The betting has been 7-10. Among those on our "Alito watch list": The senators up in '06 from swingish states, like Bob Byrd (WV), Bill Nelson (FL) and Debbie Stabenow (MI). Also, will Bob Menendez cast one of his first votes against someone from his own state?

BTW, here's a quote from Nelson's statement: "I have decided to vote in favor of Judge Samuel Alito to serve as the 110th Justice of the United States Supreme Court. I came to this decision after careful consideration of his impeccable judicial credentials, the American Bar Association's strong recommendation and his pledge that he would not bring a political agenda to the Court."

From today's House Race Hotline:

For the first time in its history, the Club for Growth found a Democratic candidate it likes. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) was the surprise recipient today of the free-market group's endorsement in the TX 28 primary.

The endorsement will draw attention to a competitive rematch pitting the centrist Cuellar against liberal ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D), whom he beat by 203 votes in '04.

Cuellar's decision to challenge an otherwise-safe incumbent last cycle angered many Dems, and the state delegation only reluctantly rallied behind his campaign.

While the endorsement should boost Cuellar's fundraising totals, the Club's endorsement could backfire. He's running in a Dem primary, not a natural home for free-market voters. Voters in his district are culturally conservative, but skeptical of calls for reduced government spending and free trade. And, most importantly, the endorsement has given the Rodriguez campaign a talking point to attract liberal opposition to Cuellar.

UPDATE: Cuellar's campaign said that the Club for Growth never contacted them before issuing the endorsement, and that the endorsement came "out of left field." Cuellar issued a statement: "I find that with any endorsement you get half of their friends and all of their enemies. The only endorsement that I am looking for is the endorsement of the voters in this district, and I am working hard everyday to earn it." [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

This weird sentence appeared in CNN.com's write-up of the Golden Globes.
"If the Golden Globes are the New Hampshire primary of Hollywood awards shows -- a small, somewhat unrepresentative group kingmaking for a much larger constituency (give or take a Pat Buchanan or Pia Zadora, of course) -- then "Brokeback" must be considered the front-runner as the movie season heads into the conventions ... er, the January 31 Oscar nominations, and then to the big Academy Award election on March 5."

Well, we can't let a comment like that go unchallenged from NH Dem chair Kathy Sullivan, who told us: "I think that moving up the Oscars to February from March has frontloaded the awards calendar too much; also, George Clooney is invited to visit New Hampshire whenever he wants."

General Election Matchup

           All Dem Ind GOP Lib Mod Con Men Wom

Lampson    30% 63% 37%  6% 61% 45% 11% 28% 31%

DeLay      22   4  12  39   9  12  35  26  17

Stockman   11   3  16  15   1  12  14  13  10

Undec/Oth  38  30  34  40  29  32  40  33  41

A few tidbits on the Maj Leader race.

First, a clarification. Contrary to our previous reporting -- and that of many others -- the magic number needed to win is 117, not 116. The additional figure owes to the fact that Luis Fortuno (R), the Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico, does have a vote in House leadership races.

On the endorsement front, we caught that conservative Rep. Dana Rohrbacher (CA) is no longer on Blunt's list of public endorsements. When we asked Blunt's camp why, a spokesperson told us that the surf-loving Reaganite "is still supportive." But, the spokesperson added, "to ensure there were no questions as to the validity of our public list, we removed his name. That is how accurate our count is."

Meanwhile, Team Boehner has added three more public supporters -- Rep's Doc Hastings (WA), Cathy McMorris (WA) and Joe Knollenberg (MI).

Knollenberg -- a cardinal and respected member -- is a good catch, but Hastings is the name that really jumps out. As the chosen chair of the House ethics cmte and someone who may seek to become the Rules Cmte chair in the 110th Congress, Hastings is widely viewed as a leadership loyalist. Indeed, he and the cmte he leads have been silent despite the scandal revelations of the past few months. That he would make a public endorsement for a candidate outside of the leadership structure is notable.

Lastly, we understand that Shadegg has won the support of two conservative up-and-comers -- Rep's Paul Ryan (WI) and Tom Feeney (FL). They've penned, along with Jeb Hensarling (TX), a "Dear Colleague" pushing Shadegg's candidacy.

We're less than two months away from the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis, TN, a grand gathering of nearly every important GOP elected official, party staffer, activist, and donor in the South and Midwest.

Confirmed speakers include Sen. George Allen (R-VA), Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN), Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)and Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA). More to be announced.

We're doing the straw poll, which in past cycles has served as an important test of establishment strength, particularly in the South. It's just a guess, but we think this year's straw poll could change the dynamics of the invisible primary a bit differently. A dark horse who does well could get a boost in buzz and in early donor committments.

Even before there was an '08 straw poll at SRLC, supporters of MS Gov. Haley Barbour were looking to turn the contest into a Barbourian triumph, complete with "Good 'ol boy wins" spin. Barbourites (Barbouronians?) including his ex-campaign manager, Ward Baker, are trying to encourage as many MS GOPers to sign up as possible. (Only registered conference participants can vote in the straw poll.)

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that a poor showing Frist, a Republican of Tennessee, would be most unhelpful.

To that end, GOPers are salivating over with rumint that Frist's PAC budgeted $50K to transport GOPers from GOP-rich eastern TN to the straw poll in Memphis. (Frist's advisers wouldn't talk dollar figures.)

An upbeat Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) says his duty to his state requires him to put off retirement for at least six more years.

"I am going to ask the people to re-elect me to another term in office," he said.

"For me, it became a choice. Do I spend the future with my wife and Tricia spending more time with the grandchildren or do I continue to ask the people to allow me to serve this great state. I've made a choice."

Lott said he spent the Christmas speak consulting with friends and colleagues about the future.

In the end, the challenges his state faces in rebuilding after Katrina convinced him to postpone his retirement plans.

"We've been through an awful lot here in the past few months," he said. "We've struggled with the events of history; now we're struggling to deal with the events of nature. It's given us a new and difficult challenge. But I've enjoyed working with the people in this state and the people of America."

Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) is expected to announce today that he'll seek for a fourth term, sources close to the senator said this morning.

On Monday, Lott spent hours on the phone informing his major donors of his decision.

He'll formally make the announcement at a noon ET news conference in Pascagoula, MS, followed by a news conference in Jackson.

Lott's beachfront home was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina in late August. That fueled speculation that he'd return to the state and rebuild. Lott processed the event differently: he believes his state needs him and his DC clout more than ever, and he'd do the most good by making sure his constituents get back to their normal lives.

His decision to run again -- should he not change his mind within the next two hours -- spares the GOP from defending an open Senate seat. The likely Dem nominee, Ex-AG Mike Moore, makes GOPers quite nervous.

The next big question: will Lott re-run for a leadership position when Bill Frist steps down?

What are conservatives doing to ensure the prompt confirmation of Judge Sam Alito?

According to a compilation from the folks at Creative Response Concepts, a lot.

The Family Research Council has sent e-mail alerts to 150K activists, is running radio ads in RI (targeting Sen. Chafee) and has its hands in projects in AR and LA.

Italian-Americans for Alito is pressuring senators in LA, WV and RI. The group met Friday with Sen. Mary Landrieu and hopes to persuade WV Gov Joe Manchin (D) to endorse Alito, thereby putting pressure on Sen. Robert Byrd (D) to vote for him.

The American Family Association has sent more than 168K e-mails to its members and generated thousands of e-mails to Senate offices from residents of NE, ND, SD, AR, LA and FL.

Fidelis is focusing on LA.

American for Tax Reform is phone-banking its membership and sending e-mails to Senators.

The National Italian American Foundation is targeting Sen. Chafee with another radio ad.

And Progress for America remains on the air with a national cable/spot buy.

Lobbyists: don't even think about giving gifts to members of Sen. Harry Reid's staff.

As of today, per a memo written by Reid's chief of staff, Susan McCue, the minority leader forbids any member of his staff from accepting gifts of any size from lobbyists.

Currently, congressional rules allow two gifts per year to members of values not exceeding $50. As Chris Matthews discovered last week, booze is all-you-can-quaff.

And, for some reason, lobbyists for state colleges don't play by the same rules (because their expense accounts come courtesy of government funds -- which you'd think would make them subject to more onerous requirements. Not so.)

The full text of McCue's memo is below.

"Temporarily," Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) will vacate his conference-appointed position as chair of the House Administration Committee.

Said Ney, in a statement: "Earlier today, I informed House Speaker Dennis Hastert of my decision to temporarily step-down from the Chairmanship of the House Administration Committee. This decision was not an easy one and one I do not make lightly. I want to assure my colleagues and my constituents that I have done absolutely nothing wrong and I am convinced that I will be vindicated completely at the end of this difficult process."

A few factors seem to be in play here. One is that Hastert did not want to introduce lobbying reform legislation with the conference's biggest boil unlanced. A second: the Democrats will on Wednesday unveil their own package of anti-corruption measures and Hastert has deprived them of a talking point.

National Journal's Richard Cohen wonders whether Hastert will appoint someone serving on the committee to replace Ney. (Any important appointment during this time of heightened focus will be scrutinized and reflect the Speaker's priorities.)

Two potential candidates: Rep. John Mica (R-FL) and Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY.) Cohen notes that Mica is more senior and has been campaigning actively for the Transportation Committee chairmanship; he might take this as a fall-back (or a temporary post to show that he can do the job). Mica has more experience in managing legislation than does Reynolds -- though he's not very close to Hastert.

Reynolds, says Cohen, is very close to Hastert and obviously has experience with partisan combat as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

"For what it's worth, there are precedents from the pre-Watergate era when the chair of the DCCC also chaired this committee. That includes Wayne Hays, who also served OH-18 and ran into some serious ethical problems... making him a predecessor of Ney, in more than one respect. Of course, the campaign committees weren't nearly so large or influential in those days."

For our second look "Inside The Numbers," we had hoped to compare the support that Blunt and Boehner were drawing from, respectively, the House GOP Whip team and the GOP members of the House's Ed and Workforce Cmte. This, we thought, would be a good indication of how the two were faring among the members who know them best and would, presumably, be some of their biggest backers.

But with Shadegg's entry into the race yesterday a.m. (not to mention the state-secret nature of who exactly is on the House Maj Whip Team) such an analysis has now been rendered obsolete.

So instead we've compiled a list of who is winning support from the suddenly en vogue conservative Republican Study Cmte (RSC).

As we wrote in an earlier post, this group, along with their reform-minded counterparts in the moderate Tuesday Group, could play a decisive role if enough of them hang together and deliver an en bloc endorsement in the final days of a close race. Whether or not a significant number are "keeping their powder dry" is an open question, though, given the number of public and private support Boehner and Blunt have been touting.

The RSC lists 103 members in the 109th Congress. Blunt claims support from 36 of them and Boehner 13. Shadegg, for his part, drew both of his first two endorsements from among the RSC.

On that last figure, a major caveat. Shadegg is an ex-RSC Chair and still holds considerable sway with the group. Indeed it was the rank-and-file of the RSC that pushed the AZ'an to get in leader race. As he burns up cell phone minutes this weekend, Shadegg is likely to secure endorsements from previously uncommitted members of the group. And today his spokesperson went even further, issuing a statement asserting that they "already have defections from the Blunt list." Lastly, as Richard Cohen sagely noted in this week's issue of National Journal, endorsements in secret ballot leadership races must be taken with tablespoons of salt.

With that, find below a look at who the listed members of the RSC are supporting as of 1/14 p.m.

Majority Whip Roy Blunt issued a release mid-day Saturday claiming to have 117 commits, one more than necessary to win the Majority leader position on the first ballot. From Blunt's "victory declaration":

"I've counted a lot of votes in my seven years in the Whip's office, and this was a well-fought fight on all sides. John Boehner is a great congressman and a good friend. My friend John Shadegg is bringing an important focus to the final days of this race. I look forward to working with both of them as we achieve great results for the American people."

Boehner's team followed up with a release challenging Blunt to vacate his current leadership post now if he's so sure he's got 117 votes.

Remember, it's a secret ballot and the only commits we believe count are the ones made public. And Blunt does not have 117 public commits.

The consensus candidate of the conservative intellectual establishment and the bloggers is Rep. John Shadegg.

His most recent endorsement: National Review.

House Speaker Dennis Hastert has asked Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) to step down from his post as chairman of the House Administration Committee, three sources with knowledge of the request said today.

A source close to Hastert said the Speaker does not want to unveil lobbying reform legislation with Ney still in possession of a senior House position.

Ney is in New Orleans, LA today chairing a congressional field hearing on housing reconstruction in the Gulf Coast region, according to his spokesman, Brian Walsh. The hearing is ongoing and Walsh said his boss would not comment.

A Republican close to Ney said that "he obviously recognizes that, although he confident that he didn't do anything wrong, he recognizes his name is becoming a distraction to the Republican conference."

The source, who asked to remain anonymous in order to speak candidly, said Ney "will make the best decision for the conference." The source would offer no time frame on the decision.

Hastert's spokesman, Ron Bonjean, acknowledged "there have been ongoing discussions between Speaker Hastert and Rep. Ney about his role as Chairman of the House Administration Committee."

A House leadership aide said that Hastert "is moving the behind the scenes for the greater good of the conference and handling it in the most dignified way as possible."

Hastert and others in the conference publicly supported Ney until Jack Abramoff reached an agreement with prosecutors. As recently as several days ago, Hastert praised Ney's stewardship of the committee.

Said the leadership aide: "There are people that have pled guilty who have conspired to bribe him. It does not mean he is guilty. However, given this information and the fact that part of our reform agenda will come before his committee, it's a big problem in him leading it."

Under House rules, Hastert has no authority to fire Ney. But a majority of the conference could vote to oust him as chairman if he refuses to step down. [MARC AMBINDER]

Update: Roll Call has more details.

This where we stand at the end of the first week of what is now a three-way race. Keep an eye on "On Call" for weekend updates.

Raw numbers:

Blunt: 82; Boehner: 41; Shadegg: 2.

Requisite reminder that that these lists are not exhaustive, and that each side claims additional endorsements. Also keep in mind that Shadegg is just in the race as of this a.m.

New names since we published today's Hotline are in bold.

Full list after jump:

Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) and Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA) are sending a Dear Colleague letter to the rest of the GOP conference today calling for a full slate of leadership elections.

Today's Shadeggian entrance means that at least three of the seven positions will be vacated; the others are NRCC chairman (Reynolds), conference vice chair (Kingston), conference secretary (Doolittle) and conference chair (Pryce).

GOPers want Doolittle out of the leadership for his ties to Jack Abramoff. Pryce is seen as not conservative enough.

The full letter is after the jump.

Our earlier post might have given the impression that we think (and know) that Sen. Trent Lott will retire.

The truth is: we don't know one way or the other. Our point was that people who know Lott come up with more concrete reasons they think he'll retire than they're able to find evidence that he'll stay.

That said, others close to Lott say they think he's going to run again. Others think he's set his mind to re-running for the leadership once Sen. Bill Frist retires, perhaps for the whip position.

And it's curious that he has two events scheduled for Tuesday. Members generally don't hold two events to announce they won't be running again.

Finally: as we mentioned, Sen. Lott lost his home. He's not wealthy and could have expected, at least until very recently, to be able to become a lobbyist or consultant in DC.

Now, lobbying reform is inevitable, and ex-members are targeted in just about every version of lobbying legislation we've seen.

If he can't join 'em, why not beat 'em?

Last week On Call speculated about whether the GOP leadership elections could "inflame a Miers-like trigger point in the ligaments connecting GOP bloggers to the party establishment," and as of this afternoon, that might be happening.

Late this a.m., as covered in the expanded online edition of today's Blogometer, a wide-ranging group of prominent right-leaning bloggers organized themselves under the auspices of The Truth Laid Bear to release a group statement about the direction of the House GOP caucus: An Appeal from Center-Right Bloggers. "It reads in part: "We are bloggers with boatloads of opinions, and none of us come close to agreeing with any other one of us all of the time. But we do agree on this: The new leadership in the House of Representatives needs to be thoroughly and transparently free of the taint of the Jack Abramoff scandals, and beyond that, of undue influence of K Street. We are not naive about lobbying, and we know it can and has in fact advanced crucial issues and has often served to inform rather than simply influence Members. But we are certain that the public is disgusted with excess and with privilege."

The letter does not explicitly make an endorsement, but only mentions one maj. leader candidate by name: "As for the Republican leadership elections, we hope to see more candidates who will support these goals, and we therefore welcome the entry of Congressman John Shadegg to the race for Majority Leader."

N.Z. Bear -- who also organized last fall's PorkBusters effort, of which this can be seen as a part -- also says he has spoken with Shadegg spokesperson Mike Steel about the possibility of a blogger conf. call, and the idea is on the table.

Bloggers in agreement with the released statement are encouraged to add their names at TTLB; the full list of initial signatories is listed below the jump.

[WILLIAM BEUTLER]

Absent amid the chatter that House GOPers may hold elections for their entire leadership slate and not just Maj Leader is one small matter -- the election of the Speaker is ordained by the Constitution, not the GOP Conference.

Article I, Section 2 makes no mention of "Whips" or "Majority Leaders," but it does say that the "House of Representatives shall choose" its Speaker. In other words, the possibility of a top-to-bottom leadership election is more complicated than it sounds.

We write this knowing full well that that the odds are against even a push to hold elections for Speaker. Heavily against, we should say.

But with the issue raised but not explained, we thought it was worth putting on our Civics cap and examining exactly how such a mid-Congress election for Speaker could occur.

So we asked Richard Cohen of the National Journal, one of the preeminent Congressional chroniclers of our time, for some help with the history and rules.

It's complicated, but here's what we think happens, absent a death or vacancy.

The very short answer as to how an election would occur is this: the Speaker, himself, calls for one.

The longer, and politically more improbable, answer is that a member of the House GOP Conference would first have to, in a meeting of the Conference, make a motion to vacate the nomination of the Speaker.

Upon that motion passing, there would then be a vote in the Conference on vacating the office. That would then trigger the Conference voting on a new nominee for Speaker. (Minority Leader Pelosi could also make this motion.)

The party's nominee chosen, the action would then move out of the Conference and into the Congress, so to speak. This would take place upon the -- in this hypothetical case -- GOP Conference Chair submitting a privileged resolution on the floor of the House calling on the Speakership to be vacated.

If such a measure were to pass, the full House would then vote on a new Speaker based upon the nominees selected by each party in their respective Conferences/caucuses.

The only time in recent history that something like this has taken place, was in the 101st Congress in '89 when Speaker Jim Wright (D-TX) created a vacancy by resigning as Speaker -- and later from Congress -- during the session. Wright, though, resigned.

A move to vacate the office without the consent of the sitting (or should we say standing?) Speaker would be unprecedented. Not to mention very, very unlikely.

In any event, now you know.

As of Hotline's press time, Rep. John Shadegg has two public endorsements for his maj. leader bid: Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ) and Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX).

Rep. Roy Blunt has 78 public committments; Rep. John Boehner has 37.

UPDATE: Boehner touts 3 new gets: Rep.'s Virginia Foxx (NC), Todd Platts (PA) and Small Bus Cmte Chair Don Manzullo (IL).

Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) is about to let us know what he wants to do next year.

Next Tuesday, 1/17, Lott plans to announce whether he'll retire or run for a fourth term in the Senate.

Clues? His events are in Pascagoula and Jackson. The first event is it a local inn; the second is on the steps of the state capitol building. And the media has two full hours to set up in advance, which means that Lott's folks expect a lot.

Oh -- and he's spending this week in Hawaii.

The betting in Washington is that Lott, who lost his family home to Hurricane Katrina, will retire, but his closest friends say he vacillates.

From a release just crossing our transom:

Phoenix - House Policy Chairman John Shadegg today announced that he will seek the post of House Majority Leader in the elections on February 2.

"For the past several days, I have spoken with members all across our Conference," Shadegg said. "Based on those conversations, I believe that a majority of Republicans in the House understand the need for real, thorough reform. We must renew our commitment to the principles that won us a majority in the first place: fiscal discipline, smaller government, lower taxes, a strong national defense, returning power to the states, and greater personal freedom."

At the same time, Shadegg announced he will give up his position as Policy Chairman, the 5th-ranking elected position in the House Republican Leadership.

Late last fall, Sen. Bill Frist tapped Sen. Rick Santorum to conceive a package of lobbying reform legislation. Santorum and Frist, according to a leadership aide familiar with the proposals, are considering a raft of changes. Many could change the culture of the Senate.

Items specific to lobbying and lobbyists include:

A ban on all Congressional travel financed by private entities and a clear-cut gift ban, including tickets to sporting events and to the opera. The Senate would not allow spouses and relatives of lawmakers to lobby the chamber. It would also criminalize certain lobbying violations. Floor privileges for former members who lobby would be revoked. And the chamber would institute clearer conflict of interest rules for members and staff as they negotiate job offers outside the Senate.

Procedurally, Frist and Santorum are considering two changes. One would add transparency to the process by which a member puts a "hold" on a political appointee. It would not, however, force the "holder" into the open although it could limit the amount of a time a hold could be perpetuated.

Ear marks added to spending bills would be subject to heightened scrutiny and lawmakers who add them would be forced to justify their existence to their colleagues.

A leadership aide said that Frist hopes to bring this package to the floor by the end of February and hopes that it will be seen as complimentary to reforms proposed by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). [MARC AMBINDER]

Late word comes from Team Blunt that, following a Energy & Commerce Cmte Chair Joe Barton-led 1/12 p.m. conference call, much of the previously uncommitted TX GOP House delegation will come aboard the Blunt Train.

The new Lone Star State'rs for the Acting Maj Leader include: Rep's Barton, John Carter, John Culberson, Louie Gohmert, Randy Neugebauer, Mike Conaway, Michael Burgess.

Still uncommitted from TX are Rep's Ted Poe, Jeb Hensarling, Michael McCaul, Mac Thornberry, Ron Paul, and, most notably, the Gentleman from the 22nd District, Mr. DeLay

All told, Blunt has 13 commitments from TX's 21-member strong GOP delegation, while Boehner claims 3.

Hotline observers will surely note that Blunt has nailed down 4 of the TX Freshman who are in Congress courtesy of the aforementioned ex-Leader. For his part, Boehner has nailed down 1 of these such members -- Rep. Kenny Marchant

UPDATE: Blunt's camp says that they Rep. Michael McCaul is now on board, too. McCaul is another of DeLay's Freshman contingent.

UPDATE II: We now understand that Blunt, Boehner and newly-minted candidate Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) were all on the conference call making their pitch.

This seems big: the MD general assembly has overridden a Bob Ehrlich veto of legislation that would essentially require Wal-Mart to pay more to provide health insurance for its workers.

Wal-Mart will seek to overturn the legislation in court. They might have a good case.

But the functional lesson here is that for the first time, Wal-Mart was not able to leverage its clout and its resources to bat away a challenge to the core of its business practices.

The pressure exerted on legislators by the anti-Wal-Mart forces -- Wake-Up Wal-Mart! and Wal-Mart Watch -- worked. This is their first significant state-wide victory. And it's a sign that the debate over Wal-Mart is a concrete political issue.

Wal-Mart, in its statement tonight, admits as much: "This was about partisan politics in the Maryland gubernatorial race.

It's a proxy for one version of a perennial economic debate: what do companies owe communities? What does government owe its people? What responsibilities do people assume when they accept employment? Is an employer-based health care system even possible in our modern economy?

Governors everywhere worry about spiraling Medicare costs; Wal-Mart is responsible for more of that line item than any other entity outside government itself. GOP GOV candidates will be quizzed about it, and not just in Arkansas. On the Maryland vote, GOPers wanted to sustain the veto; Dems didn't. The reasons were root-gut ideological: GOPers said the regulation could drive the company out the state, get rid of jobs and was fundamentally unfair. Dems said Wal-Mart exploited cheap labor to accumulate $10B in profits -- and was stingy in return. Gov candidate Martin O'Malley called on the company to step up (D). Incumbent Ehrlich (R) called the bill creeping socialism.

Expect Wal-Mart, already possessing a posse of talented lobbyists and PR professionals, to regroup and redouble its efforts. Expect the company to be more aggressive against the dissident groups. Expect them to be more proactive about their health insurance and wages. Expect the debate to itensify on the left about the usefulness (and moral correctness) of taking on Wal-Mart. Expect the dissident groups to raise more money.

Tracy Sefl, Wal-Mart Watch's communications director, said that as her group "made the case about Wal-Mart over the past months, and in particular, as we focused on just how woeful their health benefits were, the support for this override coalesced and now there is momentum in other states."

32 states have versions of this legislation in the hopper.

From Wal-Mart's angry statement: "We believe that everyone should have access to affordable health insurance. This legislation does nothing to accomplish that goal. There are 786,000 uninsured people in the state of Maryland and less than one-half of one percent work for Wal-Mart. Clearly, the legislators who voted for this bill have let down hundreds of thousands of Marylanders in need." [MARC AMBINDER]

Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) will travel to IA next Monday, his third trip to the caucus state in a year.

He attends a Victory '06 fundraiser for the state party in downtown Des Moines and then attends a precinct caucus.

Also visiting the state: AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, who will observe a caucus in Sioux City.

You might think that a caucus observation is prudent. After all, the rules for Dem caucuses are mindbendingly complex. Viability. Numerical remainders. Weighted averages. Oy.

Not so for GOPers: caucuses on the precinct level are, basically, straw polls. The results are... transitive. They don't bind delegates at regional and state conventions to any particular candidate. (In recent presidential years, that's allowed the GOP caucuses to safely slip into the party's nomination calendar without violating rules.)

BTW: on Monday morning, Iowans rooting for Jim Nussle can hear ex-RNC chairman/Alito sherpa/George Allen PAC treasurer Ed Gillespie, ex-maj. leader Dick Armey and ex-IA GOP chair/ex-NRA pres. Kayne Robinson speak at Nussle campaign headquarters. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Judiciary Committee has concluded questioning of Alito after what Specter said was a total of 18 hours worth of Q&A. Specter announced that there had been a total of 700 questions asked . . . no word yet on if Hatch's sweet nothings were counted as 'questions' in this total.

Specter looked like he was having fun with that announcement -- so, in a sign we may secretly love the Alito hearings, we did some counting of our own. Here are some other totals for your drive home:

Total number of Roberts' references: 87

Top Roberts' offender: A tie between Sen. Jon -- He Had Me At Hello -- Kyl and Sen. Patrick -- Remember I Voted For The Last Guy -- Leahy. Kyl and Leahy each mentioned Roberts 13 times.

Number of Times Alito mentioned Roberts: 3

Total number of Miers' references: 12

Total number of Miers' references made by GOPers: 0

Top Miers' offender: Sen. Chuck -- It's All I Got. -- Schumer, who cited the conservative response nomination 5 times. [NORA MCALVANAH]

A source close to Boehner scoffs at Blunt's a.m. release touting 100+ unnamed backers, calling it a "little desperate." The source questions why "an incumbent Whip was not able to lock down 75+ public commitments right out of the box" and wonders "why it has taken this long for them to feel they can officially claim even 100+ votes, public and nonpublic." Source: "Seems pretty clear Boehner has turned out to be a much stronger challenger than they anticipated."

More Source: "On Monday, multiple sources in the Blunt camp were putting word out to reporters that he would go over the top within the next several hours. Three days later the race is competitive as ever."

For good measure, our whisperer also points out that Boehner is the "only declared candidate" to offer a "real and detailed plan" for the Conference.

So what say you Friends Of Roy?

"Unfortunately, the Boehner camp is trying to divert attention from the fact that Blunt simply has more commitments than they do. That.... is..... a..... Fact.....," says Blunt spokesperson Jessica Boulanger."

Boulanger: "The claim that Blunt is not adding names is simply preposterous. Laughable. Absurd. Even The Hotline recognizes that Blunt's list has grown by a 4 to 1 margin in the last few days."

The whip "does not float numbers lightly," Boulagner adds. "Blunt counts votes for a living."

Getting a tad bit naughtier, a House leadership aide adds that by "their own count, more than 50 names on Boehner's list refuse to be public, yet for some reason, his camp is frantically pushing this issue in the blogs." Aide: "THAT is what reeks of desperation here. Perhaps they see the writing on the wall?"

That last part about "pushing this issue in blogs" makes us feel sorta cheap and used. But only sorta.

Republican leadership sources tell The Hotline that Rep. David Dreier is close to unveiling a package of lobbying reforms, including a ban on privately-financed travel by members and aides. Carefully vetted exceptions may be allowed.

Sources say that Speaker Dennis Hastert and Dreier want a comprehensive, well-crafted bill before introducing it publicly. More importantly, Hastert has decided to postpone the roll out until after the Alito hearings conclude.

What won't be included: earmark reform. But that's because Hastert has signaled a willingness to delve into the complex issue in early February.

Leadership aides working on the package say that if budget procedural changes were included in a bill cracking down on lobbying, the lack of consensus about spending rules could bottle up the legislation and prove a PR disaster for the party.

In a way, "Lobbying reform" is too narrow to describe the two separate, often overlapping magisteria. Lobbying reform refers to changes to the lobbying disclosure act and possibly to federal campaign finance laws. It also refers to internal rules set by each chamber of Congress. [MARC AMBINDER AND JONATHAN MARTIN]

The Democracy Alliance, an informal network for rich liberals, has neither a functioning website or a clear role to play in the development of progressive ideas and campaigns over the next several cycles.

Tonight, DA donors will gather at the Georgetown manse of Dem uber-fundraiser Herb Miller to welcome their new executive director, Judy Wade, a McKinsey and Co. partner from San Francisco who has scant political experience.

Can Wade make the Alliance relevant?

As we've written, The group aimed to plant the type deep root structure that Dems believe the conservative movement developed in the 1970s and 80s. Rich foundations at the bottom, donating to candidate/activist training schools and up to start-up media and echo chambers and to think tanks, and then into campaigns and the bureaucracy.

The result: tight discipline, common goals, shared tactics, aggresive reaction (and pre-action) to historical and political developments, and, in general, much more cohesion. Conservative ascendence.

The DA's prime mover was Rob Stein, a lawyer and ex-DNC chief of staff who spent years trying to unravel the strands of the conservative movement. Stein entered his conclusions into a Power Point presentation which demonstrated so acutely the organizational deficiencies of Democrats that many of the party's top fundraisers and operatives were stunned into giving Stein's ideas a hard look.

Stein brought the presentation to meeting rooms across the country and quickly convinced dozens of big-name Democratic donors that the way to revive American liberalism would be to copy the institutional structure that conservatives built.

Hence the DA, which quickly secured $80 million or so in seed money to be spread over five years.

But many DA donors grew frustrated with the pace of the project and last year, Stein agreed to relinquish day-to-day control; Democrats familiar with the Alliance say Stein was a poor manager, better at evangelizing than motivating employeers.

To replace him as CEO, the DA hired Wade.

At the last DA meeting, held in Atlanta in October, the group moved forward on its plans to raise $250K each from 1,000 individuals over five years and wrote checks to groups like the Center for American Progress and to David Brock's Media Matters. ($6M went to America Votes.)

But CAP and Media Matters (and Air America Radio) get money from other, non-DA sources too. And labor unions remain the financial engine of the Democratic Party. And the parties themselves are raising more hard money than they use to. And in 2008, prospective presidential candidates will blow through state spending limits and could raise nearly a $1 billion between them.

So just how big a role it plays in the new liberal/progressive coalition is up for debate. [MARC AMBINDER]

ID's political landscape is best summed up in our update of House Min. Leader Wendy Jaquet (D). She's just "trying to keep" Dems "in the game," though that's proved a near impossibility. With Dems legitimately vying for just one statewide office, this red state keeps getting redder. Further, GOPers seem to have a derth of experienced staffers who continue to work both in-state and in DC, moving on to bigger and better things. Training in an environment where mistakes won't kill you, it would seem, pays off. [REID WILSON]

Republicans close to Rep. John Shadegg strongly hint that he will announce his candidacy for majority leader this afternoon or tomorrow. His spokesman says his boss is still making calls and hasn't made up his mind.

Shadegg, meanwhile, has become Pence II -- the "outsider" candidate favored by folks at RedState.

"John Shadegg, from Arizona, is a former leader of the conservative Republican Study Committee. John Shadegg is committed to advancing Republican goals. He is also committed to the conservative ideals of smaller government, less red tape, less government imposed burdens, and great individual liberty. Republicans need a conservative team player in leadership and Shadegg fits the profile."

Btw: Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) has endorsed Rep. Boehner's campaign.

Team Boehner says they have 86 commitments in the bag.

Rep. Roy Blunt's campaign team this morning claims that the acting majority leader has more than 100 public and private committments.

Joe Biden was on the "Today" show this a.m. and exchanged tough words with Katie Couric. He also defended his questioning of Sam Alito.

But before Biden went on the air, NBC's Pete Williams had a piece on Alito's wife leaving the hearing room in tears. Williams reported she was upset at Dems' questioning and showed a picture of Biden at the hearings. When Biden was interviewed later in the show, he said: "I wasn't in the room in that time and I never said anywhere near that. I know you put my picture up on the screen. I never said he was a bigot."

Biden was also asked if the process should be changed: "I think so yes. ... The alternative is just to vote on the Senate floor -- just go to the Senate floor and debate the nominee's statements, debate what the nominee said, debate what the nominee's case is -- just have a flat debate instead of this game. ... If judges aren't going to talk ... we should just go to the floor and vote."

He also said at this point in time he would not vote to confirm Alito and when he was asked about press criticism of his questioning, he said: "I wish they had talked about what in fact I said in that period. In the very beginning of that 8 minutes I took to speak, I pointed out that Judge Alito -- no one is saying you're a bigot, no one is saying you are, in fact, incompetent."

Another interesting note: Biden was live from Wilmington, not Washington. [EMILY GOODIN]

Check out PolitiScope, the brand-new must-read column by Hotline senior editor John Mercurio, who weighs in this week on the GOP House leadership race.

From the Hotline's Wake-Up Call!

"That's totally my fault" -- the atty for TX GOV's Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I), on spelling her name "Strahorn" on her candidacy form (Austin American-Statesman).

"I'm making him an honorary lesbian" -- ex-NYC Council member Margarita Lopez, on Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) (Newsday).

In 2002, the Republican Governors Association collected $500,000 in donations from Michael Scanlon, the president of Capitol Campaign Strategies.

The large contribution was legal and put to good use.

It's likely the money was given to CCS by one of three Indian tribes on the advice Jack Abramoff.

MO Dem consultant Roy Temple wondered whether the RGA would ever give back the money.

Under chairman Mitt Romney, who on Tuesday called for Republicans to strip Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) of his committee chairman's position, we hear that the RGA is on the verge of announcing it will donate the money to charity.

We were unable to reach an RGA spokesperson, but we expect this story to develop within the next 24 hours. [MARC AMBINDER]

This where we stand at the end of the third full business day; perhaps the last day of a two-man race?

Blunt gained 16, while Boehner added 5.

Raw numbers:

Blunt: 62 -- Boehner: 35.

Requisite reminder that that these lists are not exhaustive, and that each side claims additional endorsements.

New commitments from last night are in bold.

List after jump:

...yet.

This just came across the transom.

Rep. John Shadegg (AZ):

"I think we need to clean up our act in the wake of the recent ethics scandals, and get back to the agenda that brought us the majority in the first place. I am concerned that the two members currently in the race, whom I have a great deal of respect for, will not move aggressively enough in that direction. I will continue to talk to Members to gauge how many share that concern."

In our first look "Inside The Numbers," we examine who isn't, um, inside the numbers.

Below, find some of the biggest -- or at least noteworthy -- gets that have not been gotten.

And, to both sides, we welcome any confirmation if you claim some of these bold-faced names in your camp. Updates in italics.

MIA:
Speaker Dennis Hastert (IL)
Ex-Maj Leader Tom DeLay (TX)
Conference Chairwoman Deborah Pryce (OH)
NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (NY)
Chairman Bill Thomas (CA)
Chairman Jerry Lewis (CA)

More after the jump...

To KLo on National Review Online.

Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) told colleagues this afternoon he supports Roy Blunt(R-MO) in the majority leader's race.

Why? He thinks Blunt has better instincts on immigrations.

Andrew Good, a Tancredo aide, sent an e-mail to other Hill aides and members today saying that "as a point of information, Mr. Tancredo supports Mr. Blunt for the Majority Leader post."

Good attached Stephen Dinan's article from the Washington Times.

Specter was visibly fuming after Kennedy motioned for the cmte to go into executive session in order to issue a subpoena for records related to Concerned Alumni of Princeton (CAP).

Specter, clutching his gavel and slamming it once for effect, scolded Kennedy for not mentioning the proposal to him in advance. Kennedy said he sent Specter a letter on 12/22 requesting the "William Rusher papers" from the Library of Congress (The Rusher documents, by the way, were obtained by the NYT in November).

During the lunch recess, Specter called Rusher, an ex-National Review publisher, and asked about the papers. Rusher, who apparently had never been asked for documents relating to CAP, agreed to share them with the cmte. Save your subpoena, they’re no good here.

After lunch, Specter notified the cmte that the papers were in route. He also said Kennedy had, in fact, sent him a "computer letter," which is presumably an e-mail for people over 70, requesting the papers but that he doesn’t remember seeing it.

And while the "substantive" issue has been dealt with, Specter still seemed rattled. More than anything, Specter expressed that he was personally upset that Kennedy made the motion to subpoena the papers without giving him a heads-up. Specter to Kennedy: "We talk all the time."

Specifically, Specter said he and Kennedy "frequent the gym all the time": where he could have brought it up (ideally between spinning and jazz-fusion class).

For his part, Kennedy apologized for the slight, but also reminded Specter that he hasn’t been to the gym since the holidays. And it's showing in his hips.

We played the role of dirt conduit this a.m. by linking to a naughty but nifty chart on some of Blunt's Indian/Abramoff ties.

Now, in the interest of fairness, we offer a little something that was "resurrected" from the 10/9/00 edition of The Weekly Standard.

Titled, "The Next Minority Leader?," the piece from the mag's Scrapbook section pointed out that Boehner was talking up his candidacy to take over the House GOP...Minority.

Full piece after the jump:

Sen. Joe Biden, who donned a Princeton Univ. hat to show how concerned he was about Concerned Alumni of Princeton, surely knows the value of good TV.

But Biden has had a lot of practice in front of the camera (thanks, Russert)—what about everyone else:

SPECTER: Really? You have taken a position on this issue?

ALITO: Well, I did, and this is one of the matters on which I ended up in dissent in my court.

(LAUGHTER)

The majority was fearful that our Nielsen numbers would be in the negative.

(LAUGHTER)

SPECTER: Could you promise the same result?

(LAUGHTER)

Could you promise the same result, if confirmed, to be a dissenter? Will the court allow TV?

GRASSLEY (?): Be careful how you answer.

SPECTER: Be careful how you answer everything, as you have been.
(LAUGHTER)

From an e-mail sent to members of the Republican caucus just moments ago:

By direction of the Speaker, in an effort to accommodate members' schedules, the election to select a new Majority Leader will occur at 1p.m. on Thursday, February 2, 2006 in HC-5 following regular order.

Implications:

1. Members want time to consider the candidates.
2. Members want time to extract concessions from members.
3. More likely that a gaggle of the rank and file GOPers push publicly for full leadership slate elections.
4. Somewhat of a rebuke to Rep. Roy Blunt, whose allies are pushing the "Blunt's Inevtiable Victory" story-line.
5. It's messy in DC right now -- members don't want to be in a position where candidates can personally buttonhole them.

Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), the vice chair of the House Republican Conference, has been asking colleagues whether they'd support him if the conference chair spot, held now by Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH) were opened to an election.

And in a conf. call with bloggers this a.m., Kingston said "he doesn't want to present people [with the impression] that there's some crisis mode that all leadership [spots] should be up for election."

But, he said, "I've never kept it a secret that I'm interested in being conf. chair." Kingston said that current chair Deborah Pryce "was selected to a two-year term and is halfway through it." Kingston said he has "swapped" calls with Pryce "to make sure we're squared away on that." But if she "vacates, I'll jump in."

Playing the scenario out: it takes fifty members to call a meeting during which a majority of the caucus could trigger an election. An election would also be scheduled if Pryce voluntarily vacated her position -- that's not likely to happen.

Several GOP lawmakers and their aides say they expect a groundswell of support more wider elections, but they're not worried about timing. A call for an election could come as soon as the majority leader election vote process begins, and House Speaker Dennis Hastert might be forced to schedule wider elections as early as March.

That's not Hastert's preference, by far, partly for appearance's sake. Nothing says "party in panic" like a housecleaning. [MARC AMBINDER]

During his questioning, Sen. Coburn expressed anger that Sen. Durbin changed his mind on the abortion question:

Coburn: "I'm sorry Senator Durbin left. I wanted to razz him a little bit. You've taken quite a bit of criticism on things that you've written and said in 1985. . . . Senator Durbin was adamantly pro-life and he wrote multiple, multiple letters expressing that up until 1989.'

When Durbin returned to the hearing, he was upset to learn about Coburn's reference and requested to respond. Specter said he didn't want to give Durbin time to respond because Coburn wasn't in the hearing. After lunch, Specter had them both in the same room . . . .but wait, don't get your hopes up -- Durbin was only 20 seconds into his response when he referred to Sen. Hatch, who, of course, wasn't in the room. Specter said they would have to get the 3 Senators in the hearing at the same time. Until then, I guess they're just going to have to focus on that Alito guy.

We almost missed the prognostication of Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL), who thinks the ML's race is all but over and done with.

FNC's Major Garrett: "Today six Florida Republicans wrote a letter to House Speaker Dennis Hastert urging him to schedule these House leadership elections before the president's scheduled State of the Union address on January 31. Most of those Republicans support Blunt. That prompted some speculation that Blunt supporters might fear this race is slipping away. But one of those Republicans, Clay Shaw of Florida, told me that Blunt has this race wrapped up, saying, this race is just about over."

Our take: it's hard to know what stage this race is in, and it's difficult to conclude that are too many members out there who have made up their minds but who refuse to go public.

Potentially significant news in the Majority Leader's race.:Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) supports a ban on last-minute so-called "earmarks" inserted into spending bills.

That's a "long term" project, according to Boehner.

In the short term, Boehner wants greater transparency and more scrutiny of members' relations with lobbyists.

Full letter to Rep. David Dreier (R-CA) after the jump.

Some drama erupted between Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) after Kennedy motioned for the cmte to go into executive session to consider issuing a subpoena for records related to Concerned Alumni of Princeton.

Specter, caught off guard by Kennedy's motion, scolded Kennedy for not mentioning the proposal in advance. Kennedy said he sent Specter a letter on 12/22 requesting the "William Rusher papers" from the Library of Congress. Highlights:

Kennedy: "If you're going to rule it out of order, I want to have a vote on that."

Specter to Kennedy: "I'm not going to have you run this committee"

Specter: "There was no letter, which I received….. I take umbrage at you telling me what I received."

After much discussion on the members-only conference call on Monday and after some FL members went public (see Wake-Up Call), GOP leaders are apparently now planning on calling the Conference back before the SOTU to decide on who will become the new House Maj Leader.

The House Conference has sent an email to members and staff offering potential dates for such an early return to D.C.

Full email after the jump:

We hear that AR Gov. Mike Huckabee plans to attend next Monday's precinct caucuses in Sioux County, IA.

The next GOPer to hit the IA circuit: Gov. George Pataki, who, in his second visit to the state, attends a party fundraiser in Sioux County on Feb. 2.

One more tip: we hear that MA Gov. Mitt Romney is about add a veteran of IA politics to his Commonwealth PAC. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Hotline's Chuck Todd wonders why Speaker Hastert took so long to get the ball rolling on lobbying reform -- and suggests that his unassuming style -- and close personal friendship with Tom DeLay -- may have blinded him to biggest threat to his tenure.

Now circulating among Hill GOPers...

UPDATE: We are now told from Hill sources that this bit of oppo comes by way of a MO Dem with Carnahan ties.

Missing in all the discussion about who is supporting who is this reality: Three days into the race to become the next House Maj Leader, John Boehner and Roy Blunt have, between them, less than 80 public commitments from their 229 GOP colleagues.

Is there a bumper crop of private support that both sides have locked down but aren't, for whatever reason, revealing? Perhaps. But given all that the Conference has endured starting with DeLay's indictment in September (Duke-stir, Scanlon, Abramoff), how has Boehner -- or any other outside challenger -- not emerged as the new Sheriff in town?

A look at the two candidates may explain it.

After the second full business day, this is where we stand on public support. The raw numbers are:

Blunt: 46 -- Boehner: 30.

Requisite reminder that that these lists are not exhaustive, and that each side claims additional endorsements.

New commitments are in bold.

TEAM BLUNT
Todd Akin (MO)
Rodney Alexander (LA)
Richard Baker (LA)
Marsha Blackburn(TN)
Henry Bonilla (TX)
Jo Bonner (AL)
John Boozman (AR)
Ginny Brown-Waite (FL)
Dave Camp (MI)
Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Tom Cole (OK)
Ander Crenshaw (FL)
Charlie Dent (PA)
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL)
Mario Diaz-Balart (FL)
Jo Ann Emerson (MO)
Mike Ferguson (NJ)
Mike Fitzpatrick (PA)
Mark Foley (FL)
Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ)
Bob Goodlatte (VA)
Sam Graves (MO)
Katherine Harris (FL)
Duncan Hunter (CA)
Kenny Hulshof (MO)
Darrell Issa (CA)
Bobby Jindal (LA)
Nancy Johnson (CT)
Jack Kingston (GA)
Mark Kirk (IL)
Jim Leach (IA)
Candice Miller (MI)
Sue Myrick (NC)
Charlie Norwood (GA)
Tom Petri (WI)
Joe Pitts (PA)
Adam Putnam (FL)
Dave Reichert (WA)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL)
Clay Shaw (FL)
Chris Shays (CT)
Lamar Smith (TX)
Greg Walden (OR)
Jim Walsh (NY)
Lynn Westmoreland (GA)
Joe Wilson (SC)

TEAM BOEHNER
Gresham Barrett (SC)
Charles Boustany (LA)
Steve Buyer (IN)
Ken Calvert (CA)
Mike Castle (DE)
Steve Chabot (OH)
Vern Ehlers (MI)
Paul Gillmor (OH)
Melissa Hart (PA)
Dave Hobson (OH)
Sam Johnson (TX)
John Kline (MN)
Ray LaHood (IL)
Steve LaTourette (OH)
Tom Latham (IA)
Thad McCotter (MI)
Buck McKeon (CA)
Gary Miller (CA)
Anne Northup (KY)
Devin Nunes (CA)
Mike Oxley (OH)
Steve Pearce (NM)
Jon Porter (NV)
Jim Ramstad (MN)
Jim Saxton (NJ)
Pete Sessions (TX)
Mike Simpson (ID)
Lee Terry (NE)
Pat Tiberi (OH)
Ed Whitfield (KY)

Sen. Lindsey Graham said he believes Judge Sam Alito when he says he doesn't remember certain parts of his murder boards.

Alito smiled appreciately.

Continued Graham: "And if any of us come before a court and say we can't remember Abramoff, you'll believe us."

"Abramoff who?" queried another Senator.

"Wasn't he the guy in the Bible?" asked a third.

Yes -- lobbyists are lobbying against lobbying reform.

But

It's a canard that the entire influence industry will automatically resist reform. In fact, lobbying reform, if enacted to remedy the abuses of the Abramoff era, may well benefit one class of lobbyists at the expense of another.

Trade associations like the National Association of Manufacturers and the Chamber of Commerce lobby on broad issues and represent thousands of discrete clients. Their mission statements exist on their websites. They are often proud to claim credit for influencing legislation and members of Congress are proud to accept their endorsements. Their priorities and activities are, for the most part, quite transparent.

If the new laws reduce the incentive for members of Congress to associate with lobbyists from private firms, they might increase the incentive for them to be even more receptive to lobbyists from known and trusted entities.

For employers, the Chamber, NAM and the National Federation of Independent Businesses are respectable commodities. They have large research staffs and even their detractors take seriously their ability to provide members with information and the degree to which they represent widely distributed political interests.

Another net benefit: it's cheaper for companies to join associations; private firms are much more expensive. [MARC AMBINDER]

Ex-Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann might not familiar to PA political establishment like ex-LG Bill Scranton. After all, he has to compete with Scranton, who has a city named after him. (Not really.)

So maybe his campaign is trying to put him in a very familiar light. If this "Property Taxes" spot seems familiar, maybe that's because it's similar to the NFL pre-game spots announcing the starting line-up.

Note the white background, fade in/out bright spot lighting and how he crosses his arms and looks up at the end.

It's part of a larger theme: it seems his campaign wants build on his athletic/broadcaster reputation to combat his lack of juice within
PA GOP establishment.

So far it's worked: Swann overwhelmingly won the PA GOP Central Caucus 77-31 over Scranton. As Franklin and Marshall prof G. Terry Madonna told The Hotline: "This is what's giving him entree into the political community. When he travels and speaks, he gets larger audiences . . . why not embrace it and turn it into a positive?"

But Madonna is also quick to note that what works in Schwarzenegger's CA or Ventura's MN, might not for "meat and potatoes" PA, which has never had an athlete or celebrity run for office, despite, he says, GOP attempts to woo PSU coach Joe Paterno and Golf Legend Arnold Palmer. Madonna: "He's not a Hollywood celebrity type...He played for a blue collar team. I think he's trying to make a connection with a lot of working people. It's a very smart tactical move on the part of his campaign." [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

In response to questions by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Judge Sam Alito called current precedents prohibiting restrictions on abortion where the life of the mother is at stake or in cases where the pregnany resulted from rape or incest ... "compelling."

Asks Rep. Herb Kohl (D-WI): "Was the Supreme Court correct to take this case in the first case?"

Alito: "Some of the equal protection grounds involved may come up in cases before the court. ... As to that particular case, my answer is that I really don't know. I have not studied it in the way I would study a case that comes before me as a judge."

Kohl was skeptical: "That was a huge, huge case! I'm sure you thought a lot about it, given who you are."

Alito wouldn't bite.

Our colleague, The Atlantic Monthly's Joshua Green, explores the historical roots of the phenomenon of vet candidates who identify as Democrats.

An excerpt: "That sort of raw authenticity -- experience in combat -- has declined steadily over the past three decades. According to research conducted by William Bianco, a professor at Penn State University who has studied the civilian-military divide, the number of veterans in the House reached its zenith in 1971, when more than 72 percent of congressmen had served.

With the retirement of World War II veterans and the under-representation of veterans of later wars, that number has slipped below 20 percent. Experts attribute this decline to the paucity of large-scale combat operations, the shrinking of the armed services overall, and the change in 1975 to an all-volunteer military, which created a higher percentage of career-minded soldiers, less likely to take an interest in running for office.

That could change. "What you're looking at now is fairly unusual," says Richard Kohn, a history professor and the chair of the Curriculum in Peace, War, and Defense at the University of North Carolina. "This is the first time post-1975 that you're seeing a group emerge that specifically wants to get involved in politics."

Possible Foe For Joe (1/10/05)

---------

And in '03:

JOE LIEBERMAN FOR PRESIDENT INC
Lamont, Ned 6/25/2003
$500.00

Greenwich, CT 06831 Lamont Television Systems/Founder a
[Contribution]

Rep. Zach Wamp (TN) has sent a letter to colleagues asking for their "thoughtful consideration" should the Whip position "become vacant."

Full letter after the jump:

Biden seeks Alito's view of employment discrimination jurisprudence. Alito sticks to the facts of the several cases.

If there had been evidence that discrimination could be proven or was strongly inferred, he may have ruled otherwise.

Biden believes that Alito holds defendants to a higher standard than the law allows and therefore leaves victims of discrimination unable to press claims.

In Sheridan v. DuPont ('96), Alito was the only one of 11 on his circuit to conclude that a mere pretext for discrimination was not sufficient enough evidence to guarantee the defendant a jury trial.

If there's no evidence of the "plus" -- the actual evidence of specific gender-based discrimination -- is the claim valid? Alito believes that a "pretext plus" finding is needed -- that even a strong inferrence that the reason given for firing was a pretext is not sufficient in all cases. In most cases -- yes -- but not in all cases.

Alito: "If the plaintiff can show or show that the reason given by the employer is a pretext is incorrect than that's enough to go to the jury. That's sufficient in the vast majority of cases but not in every case."

Kennedy asks Alito: Should the courts give weight to a president's signing statement? Do presidents have the ability to interpret the scope of laws passed by Congress?

The president believes they should.

Alito: "Where I start and where I end is the text of the statute and if you do that, you avoid the problems with the legislative intent and the signing statements."

Sure, they have the Gov's mansion, but HI GOPers "don't have much of a bench." In fact, Dems outnumber GOPers 41-10 in the State House and 20-5 in the State Sen. But don't forget, GOPers made a serious run at keeping Honolulu in their hands after Gov. Linda Lingle (R) moved to the State house, and the state gave Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) a scare -- and Dick Cheney a vacation -- late in '04. There's potential -- albeit far in the future -- for HI to become a more competitive state. [REID WILSON]

Alito defends non-recusal in the '02 case involving Vanguard.

(Alito owned mutual funds through Vanguard and had in '90 promised to recuse himself from all Vanguard-related matters.): "I not only compiled with the ethical rules that are binding on federal judges but I did what I've tried to do through my career; [that is] to go beyond the letter of the ethics rules and avoid any situation where there might be an ethical situation raised."

Alito said "there was no chance" that he would have benefited financially" from the Vanguard case; no aspect of his decision would have had bearing on the funds that Vanguard held for him. He also said he received the notice of a potential conflict after the case was decided and voluntariily decided to recuse himself from the appeal.

In response to Sen. Leahy's question about CAP, Alito said he doesn't remember signing up for membership. "The issue that had rankled me about Princeton for some time was ROTC. I was in ROTC for a time and the unit was expelled from the campus. And I thought that was very wrong."

Leahy isn't buying it. "CAP was most noted for [believing] that too many minorities and too many women were going to Princeton." And certainly, in 1985, when CAP was known for having those views.

Alito: "That was not any part of my thinking in terms of what I did in relation to this group."

Specter asks this essential question: does the Constitution permit the president to engage in domestic wiretapping without specific authorizing legislation?

Is FISA the only vehicle by which a president can do this -- like Specter believes -- or does the president act with implicit Constitutional authority by dint of his grant of executive power and his role as commander-in-chief? Does the congressional authorizaton for the use of force grant the president implicit authority not contained within the letter or spirit of the legislation?

Alito resists answering because he expects to hear cases like this before the court.

Sen. Pat Leahy clearly wants Alito to say whether he believes a president, acting as commander in chief, can disregard Congress's intent to immunize soldiers from prosecution (for torture).

Alito: "Sometimes, issues of executive power arise and they have to be analyzed under the framework that Justice Jackson laid out." It's a "twilight zone," Alito says, using language from Jackson's opinion -- "When the President takes measures incompatible with the expressed or implied will of Congress, his power is at its lowest ebb, for then he can rely only upon his own constitutional powers minus any constitutional powers of Congress over the matter."

Alito says he'd have to see what the facts are. Did the Congress act unconstitutionally? Did the president? Just because Congress says the President is acting illegally, is he?

Not much new here... we'd be hard-pressed to think he wouldn't say what Specter goaded him to say.

Alito agrees with O'Connor's statement: "A state of war is not a blank check when it comes to our nation's citizens."

Alito: "Our Constitution applies in the times of peace and the times of war and it protects Americans under all circumstances. The Bill of Rights applies at all times. It's particularly important that we adhere to the bill of rights in times of war and times of national crisis because there's the greatest temptation to depart from them."

Alito admits that his view of abortion rights in 1985 comports with what he wrote on his application to the office of Solicitor General.

To our virgin ears, Alito seems less enamoured with the a priori value of precedents than Judge Roberts:

"When a precedent is reaffirmed, that strengthens the precedent. When the precedent is reaffirmed, each time it's reaffirmed, that's a factor that should be taken into account when dealing with stare decisis."

Not a ringing endorsement.

In early questioning, Judge Sam Alito said he agreed with Griswold's application in Eisenstadt -- i.e., that unmarried couples also have the right to contraception as derived from a right to privacy.

Sen. Arlen Specter quizzed Alito on the durability of Casey and the degree to which reliance on precedence is critical for the continuity and smooth and regular function of the court.

Alito said that all the courts should be insulated from public opinion -- that is, he doesn't seem to put much stock in the idea that the public's reliance on a law is a reason not to overturn a precedent.

Alito said the court would NOT do its duty "if the court made a decision based on its perception of public opinion."

We like when party chairs open up; when they tug the curtains to reveal the inner workings of an America political party; and when party chairs themselves post regularly -- and candidly -- on blogs.

That's why we like Saul Anuzis's new project at the Michigan Republican Party.

Do other party chairs -- county, state or city -- regularly blog? (And no -- a blog post is not a rewritten press release.) Let us know, and we'll list them here.

Republicans on the Senate judiciary committee have asked Cathy Fleming, the incoming president of the National Association of Women Lawyers, to testify on behalf of her former colleague, Judge Sam Alito.

Problem is: yesterday, the NALW refused to endorse Alito, writing that "[a]lthough Judge Alito's former law clerks and professional associates interviewed by NAWL generally reported that he has had positive and supportive working relationships with women and has appropriately hired women and promoted them to senior positions, Judge Alito's interpretation of statutes affecting women and their families further reflects a narrow reading of the requirements of those statutes to the detriment of women's rights."

We couldn't help but shake our heads while reading that Socialist Rep. Bernie Sanders (VT) is urging a fellow independent not to run for Congress this year. Sanders, a Senate candidate, told the AP that he fears the presence of state Rep. David Zuckerman, a member of the Progressive Party, on the ballot will ensure the election of a Republican to replace Sanders in the House.

"Now is not the time to do something that the Republican Party will be very gleeful about," Sanders said.

Sanders, who thinks there's a chance Dems could regain the House and Senate this fall, said that if Vermont's House seat were to fall to GOPers, that task could be made more difficult.

"I have talked to David on a number of occasions and I have urged him in the strongest possible terms not to run for the seat, not to split the anti-Bush vote in this enormously important moment in American history," Sanders said.

The money shot: Sanders said he would work to elect state Sen. Peter Welch, D-Windsor, to the seat Sanders has held since 1991. [JOHN MERCURIO]

Add columnist George Will to Rep. John Boehner's camp, sorta. In an op-ed this morning, Will criticizes Rep. Roy Blunt as being part of "DeLay Inc." and praises Boehner's fiscal discipline. "If, as one member says, 'the problem is not just DeLay but DeLay Inc.'[then] Blunt is not the solution," Will writes. "So far -- the field may expand -- the choice for majority leader is between Blunt and Boehner. A salient fact: In 15 years in the House, Boehner has never put an earmark in an appropriations or transportation bill."

Just one nagging question: Does Will's praise help or hurt Boehner?

After the first full business day of each side working the phones, this is where we stand on public support. The raw numbers are:

Blunt: 30 -- Boehner: 18.

Keep in mind, though, that both sides emphasize, repeatedly, that these lists are not exhaustive, and that they each have more support in the wings.

TEAM BLUNT
Rodney Alexander (LA)
Richard Baker (LA)
Marsha Blackburn(TN)
Henry Bonilla (TX)
John Boozman (AR)
Dave Camp (MI)
Tom Cole (OK)
Ander Crenshaw (FL)
Charlie Dent (PA)
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL)
Mario Diaz-Balart (FL)
Jo Ann Emerson (MO)
Mike Ferguson (NJ)
Mark Foley (FL)
Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ)
Bob Goodlatte (VA)
Sam Graves (MO)
Kenny Hulshof (MO
Darrell Issa (CA)
Bobby Jindal (LA)
Nancy Johnson (CT)
Jack Kingston (GA)
Sue Myrick (NC)
Charlie Norwood (GA)
Joe Pitts (PA)
Adam Putnam (FL)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL)
Chris Shays (CT)
Lynn Westmoreland (GA)
Joe Wilson (SC)

TEAM BOEHNER
Gresham Barrett (SC)
Charles Boustany (LA)
Steve Buyer (IN)
Mike Castle (DE)
Paul Gillmor (OH)
Melissa Hart (PA)
Dave Hobson (OH)
John Kline (MN)
Tom Latham (IA)
Thad McCotter (MI)
Anne Northup (KY)
Devin Nunes (CA)
Steve Pearce (NM)
Jim Saxton (NJ)
Pete Sessions (TX)
Mike Simpson (ID)
Pat Tiberi (OH)
Ed Whitfield (KY)

Both sides can boast support from the right-leaning members of the Conference.

Blunt has won endorsements from conservative Rep's Jack Kingston (GA), Sue Myrick (NC), Charlie Norwood (GA), Joe Pitts (PA) and Joe Wilson (SC).

Boehner counters with Rep's Gresham Barrett (SC), Steve Buyer (IN), John Kline (MN), Steve Pearce (NM) and Pat Tiberi (OH).

As demonstrated in an email circulated last night by Boehner's camp, the candidates each have solidly conservative voting records.

Having taken himself out of the running today, Rep. Mike Pence (IN), the head of the conservative RSC coalition, is perhaps Target #1 among conservatives at this point. Although it is uncertain how many, if any, votes his endorsement could deliver, we feel safe surmising that he heard from Messrs Blunt and Boehner today.

Rep. Mike Castle (DE) -- past chair of the Tuesday Group and one of the most outspoken House moderates -- will endorse Boehner tomorrow, per a source close to the Delawarean. Castle stands out as the Boehner's most high-profile moderate supporter to date. The two have worked closely together on Boehner's cmte, where Castle is Boehner's education subcmte chair.

And, evidently, he is not just offering a mere endorsement. Another House source tells us that Castle will be hosting a Members-only conference call tonight with other Tuesday Group'ers where he will, presumably, whip support for his chosen candidate.

Just going on the names made public, Boehner could apparently use the help. Blunt appears to have the edge among the Mod Squad so far, as Rep's Nancy Johnson (CT), Chris Shays (CT), Mike Ferguson (NJ) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ) have all endorsed the Maj Whip. Blunt is also claiming Castle's Tuesday Group co-chair, Rep. Mark Kirk (IL), but that endorsement has been disputed by a source close to Kirk and Kirk is overseas on a CODEL.

Also keep in mind that there is a contingent of centrists, led by Rep. Charlie Bass (NH), which is holding off on endorsing in an effort to make each candidate hew closely to their reform line.

We were impressed by Blunt reeling in the support of a rising House star with his fix set on the NRCC. Now Boehner has nailed down an NRCC wannabe of his own.

A source close to Boehner tells The Hotline that Rep. Pete Sessions (TX) has joined Team Boehner.

The 5th-termer from the "Big D" knocked off his Rules Cmte colleague, ex-Rep. Martin Frost (TX), in what was the most expensive House race in the country in '04, and has made clear his ambitions to run the campaign cmte.

So with Cole supporting Blunt, and Sessions backing Boehner, who wins the rubber match and lands the endorsement of Rep. Phil English (PA), the third GOPer interested in taking over the reigns at the NRCC?

The Hotline has obtained a letter that moderate Rep. Charlie Bass (NH) and conservative Rep. Jeff Flake (AZ) will shortly send to GOP colleagues urging them to -- in the name of extracting reform commitments from the two candidates -- keep their powder dry in the nascent Maj Leader race.

Flake/Bass: "Elections that appear to be foregone conclusions do not advance the reformist agenda many of us pledged to uphold to our constituents."

The unlikely couple, of course, teamed up on Friday to lead the coalition of members urging DeLay to give up his claim as Maj Leader.

Full letter after the jump:

The Hotline has obtained the "Dear Colleague" that Rep. Mike Rogers (MI) will send announcing his candidacy for Whip.

Saying that he enters the race "at a significant disadvantage," Rogers stakes out his own turf as the reform candidate, stating that "we have lost our way in the day-to-day administration of this government." Rogers: "Bold change is a must if we are going to regain the public's trust and confidence."

Asked why Rogers would throw his hat in the ring with Chief Dep Whip Eric Cantor (VA) already claiming over 100 commitments, one source close to Rogers replied that, "based on his conversations" with colleagues, "Mike feels it is the right time to get in."

Source: "Are we the establishment candidate? Absolutely not."

But, the source went on, Rogers "life experience" as a public corruption-busting Chicago G-Man will offer the Conference a "fresh alternative."

Full letter after the jump

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (KS) has gone public -- he is in.

Saying that "our country and our conference are at a crossroad," the Class of '94 Revolutionary has put out a release announcing his bid and laying claim to the outsider's mantle.

Tiahrt: "We can go with the status quo, which could lead down the road to the minority, or we can take a different path. I have concluded our conference must head in a new direction."

Tiahart also includes his first endorsement in the release: V.A. Cmte Chair Steve Buyer (IN).

Ironically, Buyer was installed into his Chairmanship at the start of this Congress by the very leadership team he is now apparently helping challenge.

And speaking of that leadership team, a source close to Chief Dep Whip Eric Cantor (VA) tells The Hotline that they now have 140 votes locked up. Source: "Eric is continuing to work the phone and will not stop until he has the support of the entire Conference."

Stay posted for news on Rep. Mike Rogers (MI) plans.

Tiahrt release in full after the jump:

Big '08 hire news: ex-RNC communications director Jim Dyke has joined the Volunteer PAC, the leadership money vehicle of Sen. Bill Frist.

Dyke declined to say what he'd do at the PAC. But a source close to the PAC said Dyke is eager to help bring Frist's public perception in line with what Dyke and other Frist backers believe are his main attributes.

Says the source: "Voters elect presidents based on accomplishment, temperament, vision and these are Dr. Frist's strongest cards. Its something people will see more of, and as they do things will begin to turn."

Dyke was communications director for the Republican National Committee from 2003 to 2005. After the elections, he opened a consulting firm in SC and helped the White House in '05 on judicial nominations.

Just last week, it emerged that former RNC chair Ed Gillespie would help Sen. George Allen (R-VA) raise money for political action committee.

Two months to the day before the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, and already, the TN GOP has signed up a half dozen speakers who are potential presidential candidates. Today, the SRLC will announce that Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS) will join Sen. Bill Frist, Gov. Mike Huckabee and Gov. Mitt Romney, along with Sen. Lamar Alexander and AR Gov candidate Asa Hutchinson.

Says TN GOP Chair Bob Davis: "Today's commitment from three more national Republican leaders is an indication of the importance of the SRLC in setting the direction for our Party in the coming years."

Remember: The Hotline will conduct a straw poll of attendees.

Judge Sam Alito
Lawyers seek outcomes
But a judge can't think that way
Now, facts drive results

Judge Sam Alito
Wife is a lawyer
Mother went to college, a first;
I'm a feminist

Cameras
Click! 28 for John
click, click, click, click, click, click, click
Sam's got 41

Sen. Tom Coburn
Crossword senator
Demands pro-life justices
Sooner, not later

Sen. Dick Durbin
Fox News Adds Scare Quotes
So: What do you think about
a privacy "right?"

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
Religious freedom
Rather than pornography
Cherish the former.

The CA 50 special on 4/11 provides the first test of how the Abramoff scandal and other ethical improprieties will play in a local election.

Dems should be worried if they aren't competitive for the GOP-leaning seat, vacated after Duke Cunningham resigned for accepting bribes from defense contractors. The GOP victor in the crowded field needs a plurality to move on, and a winner could prevail with a minority of the party vote. Dems could spend money early hoping to get nominee Francine Busby (D) 50% in the special to avoid a 1-on-1 runoff.

Ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray stands out among the 8 GOPers running. He has a strong potential fundraising base from his days as a member of the moderate GOP Main Street Partnership and from his anti-immigration activism since leaving. The two could conflict as the centrist pro-business factions of the party are at odds with the immigration hawks. Busby, who made ethics her campaign theme, should be well-funded after garnering an early endorsement from EMILY's List. But if she can't top 45% in a district that voted for Barbara Boxer in '04, Dems might have to reevaluate the effectiveness of nationalizing ethics. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Rep. Tom Cole (OK) just announced that he will support Blunt. Cole is much more than just another Sophomore Member.

He served as chair of the OK GOP from '85 - '89 before becoming the exec dir of the NRCC in '91, and later the CoS of the RNC in '00. He now has his eyes set on taking over as Chair of the NRCC after the '06 cycle and has raised a lot of $$$ for his colleagues to aid his bid.

Bottom line: He is a pol who knows his way around Rayburn, Longworth and Cannon.

Oh, and incidentally, his seat was formerly held by J.C. Watts -- the same J.C. Watts who bested Boehner for Conf Chair in '98.

Full Cole statement after the jump. Don't miss the last two sentences.

Boehner's camp has just put out a detailed, 37-page White Paper titled, "John Boehner -- For A Majority That Matters." Replete with inspirational quotes (Reagan, Churchill, John Paul II), analysis and initiatives, it lays out his vision for the Conference.

Hey, you don't think he was planning a bid before Saturday, do ya?

Take a look.

We'd be remiss if we did not include this "oh, by the way" nugget from ex-Maj Leader Tom DeLay's letter to the Speaker on Saturday:

"I will also be reclaiming my seat on the Appropriations Committee when the second session of the 109th Congress convenes later this month."

Luckily for DeLay, it just so happens that -- thanks to a recent resignation -- there is an opening right now on the Cmte.

Rep. John Boehner's team is working to clarify his remarks 1/8 that more rules won't guarantee lobbying reform. His main point: the GOP's legislative agenda, not the specifics of whatever reform it enacts, will determine whether Americans trust Republicans.

A few points from Boehner's letter to colleagues: "We should think seriously about bringing greater transparency to the lobbying industry. Anyone -- anyone -- can call himself or herself a lobbyist, recruit clients, and make appearances on their behalf on the Hill."

He also hints at earmark reform: "We need to get our arms around the power that our budget represents. We need to distinguish, for example, between legitimate earmarks with a clear local need and those for which the merits are less well demonstrated."

The House GOP Conference office advises House GOPers in an email:

"Conference Chairman Deborah Pryce and Speaker Hastert will host a members only conference call regarding the vacancy for Majority Leader.

The call will occur today at 5:30pm EST.

Call-in information will be sent shortly.

*The call will be strictly members only*"

Looks like Alito took a page from John Roberts with his first day, red-power tie.

Specter: "tough questions" (Alito will face)

Leahy: "constitutional duty" (Dems must do..i.e, filibuster?)

Hatch: "up or down vote." (see above.) Oh, and Alito is bound by cannons of justice not to answer specific questions.

...or, in reality, to their Chief's of Staff who are actually in D.C.

The letter is the same as the one from yesterday , but was emailed around with this screaming red note on top:

"ATTN: House GOP Chiefs of Staff - the following letter from Congressman John Boehner to your boss will be hand-delivered to your office later today."

In his opening statement, Sen. John Cornyn tries to comfort Judge Sam Alito: "I am reluctantly inclined to the view that you and any other nominee of this President for the Supreme Court start with no more than 13 votes in this Committee, and only 78 votes in the full Senate, with a solid, immovable, and unpersuadable block of at least 22 votes against you, no matter what you say, no matter what you do. That is unfortunate for you, but even worse for the Senate and its reputation as the world's greatest deliberative body."

Full statement after the jump.

In the statement he'll give later this later this afternoon, Sen. Chuck Schumer says the burden on Judge Sam Alito to prove he is a worthy nominee is "triply high" because of the 'swing' justice he's replacing, the sense that his nomination came to "placate" the "extremne right" after Harriet Miers, and because of his "record opinions and statements on a number of critical Constitutional questions seems quite extreme."

Anyone think Schumer'll be satisfied?

Full statement after the jump.

Worry not. We haven't forgotten today's Sam Alito confirmation hearings.

To tide you over, here's a unique look at Alito's jurisprudence, courtesy of the Yale Law Journal. The Journal's online companion weirdly calls itself "The Pocket Part" but don't let that deter you.

The site features original essays from a half dozen legal scholars about Alito and the confirmation process.

We hear that Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) plans to endorse Rep. Roy Blunt for majority leader. Kingston is a staunch DeLay ally.

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) won't be running for a leadership spot.

From a Dear Colleague letter:

"Because some of you have encouraged me to consider seeking a leadership position, Karen and I endeavored to give the matter the kind of prayerful consideration that such encouragement merits. I am writing to confirm that I will not be seeking any elected position in the Republican Conference at this time."

"While I will always aspire to be available to serve my country when called, I believe I can do more good for the conservative movement by focusing my energies within the RSC. Those of you who know me well know that my passion is to look after my young family and serve the cause I was elected to advance: limited government, a strong defense and traditional moral values. There my focus will remain."

On Friday, we speculated that the GOP blogosphere would be most enthusiastic about the potential leadership candidacy of Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN).

The Hotline's blogometer will have the full story later, but there's been surprisingly little commentary -- on Pence, or about any aspect, really, of the leadership race so far.

We did find a Pence For Leader website, but it's quite rough.

Rep. John Boehner appeared on Fox yesterday to stump for his leadership candidacy, and he appeared not be a fan of lobbying reform.

This weekend, House Speaker Dennis Hastert appointed Rep. David Dreier to lead a House GOP effort to craft lobbying reform. Asked about it on Fox News yesterday, Boehner said that "adding more new rules isn't the answer."

"Members can't do their job without interacting with the public and people who come to Washington and lobby for and against all kinds of issues. The fact is, if you look at the abuses that have been alleged, all of them involve violations of current federal law and/or House rules."

As caucus leaders and committee chairs, Boehner and Blunt rely on a team of K Street lobbyists and ex-congressional aides to help them craft legislation and set policy. Many Republicans believe that since Democrats will tar whoever wins as a creature of K Street, there's no need to condemn the culture of lobbying and pay-to-play. And Dreier suggested that he'll focus on increasing disclosure, rather than on a new regime of regulations.

Can they thread the needle? The press and many rank-and-file GOPers -- particularly the wings of the caucus -- the moderate Tuesday Groupers and the conservative RSCers... are clearly intending to vote for the candidate who best exemplifies the reform impulse. (Many conservatives, like Rep. Jeff Flake, blame K street's power for the proliferation of earmarks and the lack of fiscal restraint.)

Blunt's K Street ties have been more closely scrutinized that Boehner's. Can either of them say what needs to be said -- do what needs to be done -- without angering their allies?