A Different Kind Of WH Ballot
ShareThe latest Diageo/Hotline poll shows Sen. John McCain defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton 52%-36% among regis. voters in a WH '08 match-up. This is alone is not earth shattering as it reaffirms previous results, but this poll takes the next steps and pins McCain and Clinton against generic counterparts, resulting in some notable numbers.
WH '08 General Matchups
All Dem Ind GOP All Dem Ind GOP
McCain 52% 21% 57% 82% McCain^ 36% 15% 30% 68%
Clinton 36 66 32 7 Generic Dem 29 59 19 7
Undec/Oth 12 13 11 11 Undec/Oth 35 26 51 25
All Dem Ind GOP
Clinton^ 41% 72% 37% 12%
Generic GOP 39 7 36 74
Undec/Oth 20 21 27 14
Note that when McCain goes up against a generic Dem candidate, his overall support drops significantly, not just among Dems and indies, but also among GOPers. It's not that GOPers are crossing the aisle, but that they become undecided. The opposite happens to Dems when Clinton is pegged against a generic GOPer -- her Dem support jumps up to 72%. Now this is can mean a number of different things:
Does McCain become easier for GOPers to elect when the "other" is Clinton? Does her liberalism make McCain easier to swallow? Or is McCain just so attractive to Dems that he distracts from Clinton's base? One thing this certainly shows is that Clinton is beatable. If a generic GOPer can come within 2% of Clinton in a WH match-up, that spells some trouble on the horizon for Dems. The 20% of undecided voters will undoubtedly be the deciding factor in this generic race. The question is, who would fill that spot?
At this stage of the WH '08 cycle, it would be interesting to do more of these generic tests, showing the potential for weakness and strengths with the respective bases. Of course the caveat becomes name ID. With the exception of Rudy Giuliani, McCain and Clinton are really the only ones with the name ID to offer a formidable match-up. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]
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