DSCC Prebuttal to NRSC Briefing
ShareAs NRSC chair Elizabeth Dole prepares for a pen-and-pad with reporters later this afternoon, the DSCC's exec. dir., J.B. Poersch, is sending around a pre-buttal.
We'll have details of Dole's briefing later; the DSCC memo is after the jump.
Fundraising: With $22.4 million in the bank as of November 30 compared to the NRSC's $9.2 million, the DSCC has a 2 to 1 cash-on-hand advantage over the NRSC. Although the NRSC often tries spinning its poor fundraising by saying that the RNC will bail it out, the RNC would have to increase the amount it transfers to the NRSC by 394% over what it gave the committee in the 2002 midterm elections.
Considering that the RNC has to worry about 36 Governor's races, as well as financially strapped Republican state parties, the NRSC's sluggish fundraising complicates the spending choices the RNC will have to make as the campaign gets underway. Another interesting factoid to note is that the NRSC is spending 81¢ for every dollar it takes in, while the DSCC is spending only 47¢.
Candidate Recruitment: The NRSC often claims that its 2006 recruitment effort isn't that bad since most GOP incumbents are running. While it is true that most incumbent Republicans senators are seeking re-election, the reality is that three of those incumbents are already losing to their Democratic challengers and several others find themselves in increasing electoral jeopardy for a variety of reasons.
In Missouri, Jim Talent is trailing Claire McCaskill 47%-44%. In Ohio, Mike DeWine is trailing Rep Sherrod Brown 41%-37% and is losing to Ohio-2nd nominee Paul Hackett, 42% -- 35%. In Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is trailing State Treasurer Bob Casey 50%-38%. In Montana, Conrad Burns is dealing with a daily swarm of negative press coverage over his ties to Abramoff, causing Burns to fall into a virtual tie with the two Democrats in the race -- after having a 15-point advantage over each of them. In Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee is dealing with a competitive primary challenge in Rhode Island. In Arizona, Jon Kyl is facing his most spirited challenge in a decade. Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents are all beating their challengers by double digits.
Political Climate: The political climate this year is shaping up to be one of the worst in decades for a majority party. In addition to the Jack Abramoff scandal, Republican incumbents must contend with growing unhappiness with the new Medicare drug program, rising anxiety about the White House's handling of Iraq, gas prices and increasing energy dependence on other countries, economic indicators that suggest that the economy is poised to decline and a growing perception that they represent a status quo beholden to special interests. Indeed, the fact that Bill Frist has made asbestos reform the Senate's top priority this year reflects just how obligated the Republicans feel to the corporate interests that finance their campaigns.
Meanwhile, Democrats have been making a case for change, proposing a substantive reform agenda while holding the White House and Republican Senators accountable for the policies they have been advancing. Over the last year, Democrats stopped the Republicans from, among other things, advancing a reckless Social Security privatization plan, forced the President to be more accountable on Iraq, and prevented the GOP from exercising the "Nuclear Option" and turning the Senate into a rubberstamp for judicial nominees.
Overall, Democrats enjoy a 49%-42% lead over Republicans in a generic Congressional ballot. Fifty-three percent of Americans disapprove of the way President Bush is doing his job, and Bush's net approval ratings remained in the negatives in nearly all of the targeted races. By a 12-point margin, Americans feel that Democrats will do a better job of dealing with corruption in government.
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