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ShareThe CA 50 special on 4/11 provides the first test of how the Abramoff scandal and other ethical improprieties will play in a local election.
Dems should be worried if they aren't competitive for the GOP-leaning seat, vacated after Duke Cunningham resigned for accepting bribes from defense contractors. The GOP victor in the crowded field needs a plurality to move on, and a winner could prevail with a minority of the party vote. Dems could spend money early hoping to get nominee Francine Busby (D) 50% in the special to avoid a 1-on-1 runoff.
Ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray stands out among the 8 GOPers running. He has a strong potential fundraising base from his days as a member of the moderate GOP Main Street Partnership and from his anti-immigration activism since leaving. The two could conflict as the centrist pro-business factions of the party are at odds with the immigration hawks. Busby, who made ethics her campaign theme, should be well-funded after garnering an early endorsement from EMILY's List. But if she can't top 45% in a district that voted for Barbara Boxer in '04, Dems might have to reevaluate the effectiveness of nationalizing ethics. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
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