The Futures Market: Hawaii

Sure, they have the Gov's mansion, but HI GOPers "don't have much of a bench." In fact, Dems outnumber GOPers 41-10 in the State House and 20-5 in the State Sen. But don't forget, GOPers made a serious run at keeping Honolulu in their hands after Gov. Linda Lingle (R) moved to the State house, and the state gave Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) a scare -- and Dick Cheney a vacation -- late in '04. There's potential -- albeit far in the future -- for HI to become a more competitive state. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

State House Min Leader Lynn Finnegan (R): "She's been doing good" in the state house, helping to keep her underdog caucus together.

State Sen. Bob Hogue (R): Is reportedly pursuing some positions in the private sector, but may still seek re-election in '06. He's recently "dropped off the radar screen."

Honolulu City Councilmember Charles Djou (R): The sole GOPer on the city council, he's said to be considering a bid against Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D).

State Rep. Corrine Ching (R): There's "no evidence that she's going for higher office."

State Rep. Kika Bukoski (R): Lost a bid for re-election in '04.
State Capitol Minority Research Office aide Nadine Nishioka (R): Lost two consecutive bids for State House.

Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman (D): A city councilmember when we first met him, Hanneman has "already risen" and is rumored to be considering a statewide bid. "Getting pretty good marks" during his first year as mayor.

State House Vice Speaker Sylvia Luke (D): Despite her participation in a failed bid to overturn the State House's Dem leadership, she landed on her feet and now chairs the House Jud Cmte.

State House Maj. Whip Brian Schatz (D): Is reportedly considering a bid for LG, which, in HI, runs seperately during the primary but as a ticket with the Gov nominee during the general.

State Rep. Maile Shimabukuro (D): She's "still too young," but could have a future. "I think she has a long future in politics," although some say she "should be doing more than she is."

Ex-Maui Co. Cmte Dem Party Chair Jonathan Starr (D): Now "a great supporter" of the party, but not in an official capacity. He "sort of dropped out"

Atty. Jennifer Waihee (D): The daughter of ex-Gov. John Waihee (D), she lost a bid for the State House in '04 and is now an atty for the city of Honolulu.

And the stars to watch in the future:

Dept of the HI Homeland Dir. Micha Kane (R): The former chair of the state GOP, Kane will "probably" be "the only" member of Gov. Linda Lingle's (R) cabinet to mount a serious bid in the future.
Honolulu City Council chair Donovan Dela Cruz (D): Some mention his future potential, but "no one is talkin about him for higher office" right away.

State Rep. Mark Takai (D): He "has potential," though with "not a very high profile," he may consider a bid for House leadership before making a run at higher office.

Scott Nishimoto (D): One of the youngest members of the HI Legislature, he's "a star in the making."
State Sen. Clayton Hee (D): Made a bid for LG in '02, but returned to make a successful run for State Sen. He "always wants to run" and is "considered a veteran" with "a very strong following."