February 2006 ArchivesFeatured Golf Getaway Guest: John BoehnerRemember this Connie Mack fundraiser we told you about? A weekend getaway in beautiful Naples to benefit the FL GOPer's re-election account. $5000 per PAC. $1000 per person. Golf galore. Accomodations at the Ritz-Carlton. March 31 -- April 2. An updated invitation we were sent promises that Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), the new majority leader, will attend as a special guest. Remember The Bush Media Blitz?Well, with the Olympics over, Pres. Bush is picking up his media tour where it left off. Some highlights from his interview with ABC News' Elizabeth Vargas that's airing tonight and tomorrow on ABC. Bush on ports doing something he rarely does, that is talk about himself in the 3rd person: "If I pick up my newspaper and see, you know, 'Bush turning over ports to terrorist nations,' I would be concerned, and I must confess, that was kind of the first blush. ... And, and so two lessons from this. One is, obviously, Congress should have had a better heads up, and secondly, that the explanation to the American people must be done in a way that, you know, lays out the facts and doesn't frighten people. Vargas kept pressing Bush on whether the deal could be scuttled. Vargas: "I guess I just want to know if you're open to the possibility of this deal not happening, if that is an option here." Bush: "You know, it -- and the only way it won't happen is if there is a true security threat to the United States of America." More after the jump. (including an extensive Cheney update) Will This Catch On?Check out how Barack Obama weaved health care into energy into foreign policy today in a speech he gave to the Governor's Ethanol Coalition in DC. From his prepared remarks, Obama: So here's the deal we can make with the auto companies. It's a piece of legislation I introduced called "Health Care for Hybrids," and it would allow the federal government to pick up part of the tab for the auto companies' retiree health care costs. In exchange, the auto companies would then use some of that savings to build and invest in more fuel-efficient cars. It's a win-win proposal for the industry -- their retirees will be taken care of, they'll save money on health care, and they’ll be free to invest in the kind of fuel-efficient cars that are the key to their competitive future. Obama began his speech linking energy independence with the war in Iraq. Will other Dems (particularly those running for WH '08) borrow this idea? This seems like a classic new Dem-old Dem morphing of policy that can keep the entire party happy. [CHUCK TODD] IA GOP Says Vilsack's PAC Violated IA LawIowa Republicans say a campaign account connected to IA Gov. Tom Vilsack's '04 re-election bid ran afoul of state campaign finance laws by giving $50,000 to Vilsack's political action committee last year. In a complaint filed today with the state's ethics and campaign disclosure board, Iowa Republican Party director Cullen Sheehan contends that state law forbids campaigns from transferring money to any account that benefits an office-holder personally. Sheehan argues that Vilsack allegedly uses his Heartland PAC "to travel all over the country for personal benefit." "Money was contributed to his campaign committee with the intention that he would use it to get re-elected in Iowa, instead he is using this money to increase his visibility nationally," Sheehan said in a statement. The Republican allegations come a week after state Dems accused Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA), of improperly using his old federal campaign account to further his gubernatorial bid. [MARC AMBINDER] Continue reading "IA GOP Says Vilsack's PAC Violated IA Law" » Santorum Lobbies On ReformDuring today's Sen Rules Cmte markup of Cmte chair Trent Lott's (R-MS) lobbying overhaul bill, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) may have helped his re-election chances while not irritating his colleagues too much. Santorum offered four amendments to the bill, reports CongressDailyPM. Amendments to require senators to disclose with whom they are negotiating future employment deals and to restrict family members of senators from lobbying their relatives passed, but two amendments that would have given the bill some serious teeth -- measures to extend the lobbying moratorium from one year to two years and to require disclosure of flights taken on corporate jets, as well as sharing a portion of the costs of those flights -- failed by voice votes. Santorum's effort is smart politics. With the current less-than-stellar reputation of lobbyists in DC and a minor buzz about the ethics surrounding both Santorum's and Bob Casey's (D) mortgages, being able to brag about his efforts at "real" lobbying reform in a debate -- even if the Senate fails to act on any of his amendments -- will put some much-needed distance between him and the troubled GOP caucus in DC. Other provisions of note in the bill include a 60-vote point of order requirement against conference report provisions that were not included in either the House or the Senate version of a bill, an amendment added by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), revocation of floor priviliges for former members and a requirement that any privately-funded travel is subject to both pre-approval and post-return review by the Ethics Cmte. The latter two provisions were included in Lott's original version of the bill. Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) successfully stripped a provision that would have required Native American tribes from having to report contributions to fed candidates to the FEC. {REID WILSON] House Race Hotline Update: Ad Surfing In San DiegoFrom House Race Hotline: In the 16-candidate GOP field for the CA 50 special, it's a tale of rich outsiders versus experienced insiders. But it's the obscure no-names who are quickly getting their names out through extensive and expensive ad blitzes. One of the latest entries in the race, Eric Roach, is a high-tech businessman who has recently blanketed San Diego airwaves with two TV ads. He already surpassed millionaire businessman Alan Uke, who tossed money into an early TV buy. Richard Earnest, who's largely self-financing, also announced a costly TV/radio buy today. Despite holding their firepower until later, the politically experienced candidates are seen as the favorites. Ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray is touting his anti-immigration bona fides -- a potent issue in the district. State Sen. Bill Morrow and Howard Kaloogian have credibility with movement conservatives. And with the cap on individual donations raised (because of all the well-financed GOPers) Dems are hoping Francine Busby can add to her already sizable warchest in preparation for a runoff. Money means a lot, especially in a special election. But political connections may matter most. The Hotline's Top 25 House Races For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here. In The Weeds: Dems Dip Into Coordinated Allowance For McCaskillThe Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) in December covered payroll and insurance expenses for staffers working to elect MO SEN candidate Claire McCaskill . The $24K expenditure means absolutely nothing to MO voters and suggests very little to no more than a few dozen campaign professionals in DC and MO. A DSCC spokesman called the payments irrelevant and significance-free. Federal campaign finance law permits party committees to spend, in the case of Missouri, approximately $637K on coordinated expenditures over the course of the campaign. (The formula, for the record, is the state's voting age population, multiplied by two cents and titrated each cycle for federal cost of living adjustments.) So far, the DSCC has spent about $94K towards that sum. Republican researchers pouring over McCaskill's year-end FEC filing could not find an entry showing that any of the campaign's staff of eleven had been paid in December. Disbursements to a New York-based paycheck company were recorded through the end of November, only. The GOPers discovered that that the DSCC, on Dec. 22, paid $24,107 to that paycheck company and listed McCaskill as benefiting from the expense. The NRSC did not pick up campaign salaries for any of its candidates and the DSCC did not cover the same expenses for any other Senate campaign. That leads the NRSC to conclude that, in the words of a spokesman there, the DSCC "clearly" was doing its best to make sure that McCaskill ended the year with as much cash on hand as possible. According to that theory, the higher the number -- even if inflated by a paltry $24K -- the more favorably the small circle of Washington's elite political analysts would treat the health of McCaskill's campaign. "We've seen Claire McCaskill follow the lead of liberal national Democrats on important issues before; now we see why," said Brian Walton, an NRSC spokesman. The DSCC did not want to wade into the details. But they noted that the NRSC had, in fact, dipped into its coordinated expense allowance last summer for Maryland, paying more than $4K worth of expenses for MD Sen candidate Michael Steele. Says Dan Ronayne, another NRSC spokesman: "It's a ridiculous stretch not see a difference between helping a campaign off the ground versus an attempt to deceive the political class with a higher cash on hand." National committees routinely use the coordinated money to run television advertisements close to the election and to cover costs that the campaign cannot. And from that perspective, the DSCC, having kept more than $25M to spend nationwide on Senate campaigns, is in much better shape than the NRSC. [MARC AMBINDER] Allen, Romney And McCain on the South Dakota Abortion BanWH Press Secretary Scott McClellan says Pres. Bush would not support the bill unless it contained exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. Of the three potential '08 GOP candidates below, Sen. John McCain's view is closest to Bush's. Sen. George Allen's CoS, Dick Wadhams, tells the Hotline that "Sen. Allen has consistently supported the rights of the people in their states to pass laws which reflect their views and values." MA Gov. Mitt Romney has yet to be asked about the SD ban. Spokesperson Julie Teer: "If Governor Romney were the Governor of South Dakota he would sign it. The Governor believes that states should have the right to be pro-life if that is the will of the people." According to a spokesperson, McCain "would have signed the legislation, but would also take the appropriate steps under state law -- in whatever state -- to ensure that the exceptions of rape, incest or life of the mother were included." [MARC AMBINDER] Mea Culpa: Unions And TurnoutAppearing at an AFL-CIO press conference to unveil its '06 political gameplan, AFSCME President and longtime Dem political strategist Gerald McEntee admitted yesterday afternoon that "progressives learned a hard lesson" in the '04 cycle: relying on paid turnout efforts is a recipe for failure. Without being asked, McEntee, who also chairs the AFL's political cmte, stated bluntly that the millions of dollars Dems and liberals put into the 527s for GOTV in '04 were ineffective in the face of the GOP's volunteer effort. Or, as McEntee put it, the Dems' "stranger-to-stranger" ground game was "trounced" by the GOP's "neighbor-to-neighbor strategy." McEntee is one of the brightest political minds in the labor movement and is credited with delivering Bill Clinton his first nat'l labor endorsement in '92. McEntee also engineered an early AFSCME endorsement for Howard Dean in '04. But he also was deeply engaged in the collective union/527 GOTV effort for John Kerry and the Dems in '04. That he would, at the outset of the '06 cycle, so publicly and candidly admit their '04 grass-roots and strategic failure is striking. It is especially so in light of the post-election comments made by many involved with the 527s in '04. We're thinking of folks like ACT's Steve Rosenthal, himself an ex-AFL political director, who spent so much time praising their ground game as super-but-just-short-in-Ohio. The AFL, which is holding its winter executive meeting at the luxurious Hotel Del Coronado just outside San Diego, also said it is committed to spending $40M on "education and mobilization" of its members this cycle, the most it has ever spent on a mid-term election. These funds will target GOV and SEN races in 21 states, keying particularly on those states that have both competitive races and significant union membership -- CA, FL, IA, MI, MN, NY, OH and PA. AFL political director Karen Ackerman said also that they will play in as many as 40 different House races across the country. Ackerman added that the unions which withdrew from the nat'l AFL will be allowed to join their effort at the state and local level. Although AFL-CIO president John Sweeney made clear in his statement that they would aid "pro-worker" candidates and not just Dems, he admitted that he hoped the vast majority of the endorsements would be for Dems. And when asked which pro-worker GOPers they may back, Ackerman deflected the decision as being made at the local level. Similarly, she also made clear that the nat'l AFL had little interest in getting involved in primary contests -- with one exception. All of organized labor, Ackerman said, was behind ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) in his bid to reclaim TX 28 from Rep. Henry Cuellar (D). Cuellar has raised the ire of labor and liberals for his vote in support of CAFTA and backing of other business-friendly measures. Asked about payback for the other so-called "CAFTA 15," Sweeney noted that while the nat'l AFL would not directly weigh in, that did not necessarily mean that these wayward Dems would not "be punished." [JONATHAN MARTIN] Hotline Futures Market: New HampshireWhat's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives. After winning 7 of 8 special elections since the '04 cycle ended, Dems are upbeat about their chances in the State Legislature, and some on both sides feel the state is trending blue. But down almost 100 seats in a 400-seat state house, Dems who actually believe control is within reach may have had a little too much Kool Aid to drink. Both sides have strong female candidates waiting in the wings for whom everyone is excited, and up-and-coming mayors in each party are generating buzz as well. [REID WILSON] RGA To Raise Record Sum TonightThere are dueling fundraisers tonight for the two national gubernatorial soft money entities -- the RGA and the DGA. We hear that the RGA will raise at least $9.6 million at their "America's Majority Celebration: A Tribute to Presidential Leadership." Pres. Bush is the featured speaker. That's a one-night record for the RGA. MA Gov. Mitt Romney gets to introduce the president. The Dems will take in millions at their Taste of America gala at the Capital Hilton. After JackSuch a story may have meant nothing B.J. (Before Jack), but in a post-Abramoff era we were struck by this item in yesterday's Birmingham News about how AL Gov. Bob Riley (R) is spending part of his time at this week's NGA confab in DC. Yup, the former 3-term House member is being feted by his old House pals Hastert, Boehner and Blunt. Also check out who from K St. is putting the event on. Now perhaps even post-Jack, a Rep-turned-Gov up for re-election having a member and lobbyist-laden funder at a DC trade assoc may not merit a mention, but Riley has some, well, Abramoff issues. Abramoff partner-in-crime Michael Scanlon was Riley's congressional press secretary in the 90s. Later, Scanlon's outfit, Capitol Campaign Strategies, gave $500K to the RGA in October of '02, which in turn transferred nearly $2.5M to a soft-money arm of the RNC designed to aid state elections. That same month Riley received $600K from the cmte and the AL GOP took another $600K. It was during this same time period, of course, that Scanlon and Abramoff were raking in cash from tribes. Riley, who does not accept gambling money, maintains that he did not know the source of the RGA money. But the fact remains that the '02 AL GOV race between Riley and then-Gov. Don Siegelman (D) was fought in large measure over whether AL would join its neighbors in GA and TN in instituting a state lottery. Siegelman was for it, Riley against. And joining Riley in opposing an AL lottery were the MS-based Choctaws and their man in Washington, DC -- Mike Scanlon. The tribe feared a loss of business in their two casinos just outside of Philadelphia, MS -- about 30 miles from the AL state line. Guilt by association? Perhaps. But Riley and the AL GOP -- whose chair just recently resigned from the MS-based lobbying firm that now represents the Choctaws -- must not be sweating Roy Moore (R), LG Lucy Baxley (D), or Siegleman if they are having this kinda event. Or perhaps they are -- tickets go for $1K a pop. Per individual or PAC, that is. [JONATHAN MARTIN] Schwarzenneger Opponents On The AirJust days after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's much-hyped address at the state Republican convention, and his national TV face-time on "Meet The Press" yesterday, his Dem rivals seek to reclaim some of the spotlight by announcing the first major market TV ad buys of the season. For Treas. Phil Angelides (D), it's his first TV buy, period. For Cont. Steve Westly (D), it's his first foray into the major markets after spending some money in smaller markets. His camp now says they're up in 80% of the state. The tag line to Angelides' ad reaffirms what has been a theme for him thus far, that he "stood up to Arnold." He also promotes the two most prominent endorsements in the race thus far -- Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. Boxer speaks in the ad. Westly's ad is the same as the one he's run in the smaller markets, and makes no mention of the Governator. It leads by touting Westly's background at eBay and promises "a different kind of campaign." Recent polling shows that Schwarzenegger still hasn't fully recovered from his drubbing in the special election last November. But some have speculated that the Dems let too much time pass to fully take advantage, giving Schwarzenegger the time he needed to plot his political comeback. Perhaps hitting the air together provides a one-two punch that CA Dems need to get some momentum back. [MIKE MEMOLI] More SRLC Speakers More Southern Republican Leadership Conference confirmed speakers: TX Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Zach Wamp (TN), and Ex-Rep J.C. Watts are the latest. Be there, in Memphis, beginning on March 9. More than 1,400 Republicans from 26 states have registered to participate. The Hotline is conducting an '08 presidential preference straw poll. Newt Scores Big IA DinnerEx-Rep. Newt Gingrich has been asked to host the '06 Iowa Republican Party Lincoln Day dinner in April. Individual tickets to the 4/29 event cost $100 a pop; donors who pay $1000 or more get invited to a special reception with Gingrich before the main meal. Sean Hannity will also be on hand. The IA GOP splits up its Lincoln and Reagan dinner dinners -- its two major fundraising events of the year. In October, Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist hosted the Reagan dinner. National Journal Vote Ratings: The '08 Hopefuls
http://nationaljournal.com/voteratings/ For the Republicans, the top-line is that, despite rumors to the contrary, Sen. George Allen isn't a recent convert to conservatism. For Democrats, Evan Bayh is the least liberal of the bunch, according to the criteria. Ranked in order of highest to lowest lifetime conservative compositive score
The Democrats are ranked in order of highest to lowest lifetime liberal compositive score
What You Missed On The Sunday ShowsA new, free Hotline feature: Each Monday, Hotline TV editor Emily Goodin will pack five hours of Sunday show news and analysis into one digestible post. That's all the news, sound bites, presidential questions, scoops and spin. We watch 'em all so you can watch Project Runway re-runs! Expect it online by 9:00 am ET. Port authority talk dominated the Sunday shows. Rep. Peter King (R-NY) and Sen. John Warner (R-VA) were on "Meet the Press." King praised the forthcoming investigation into the deal: "It's the type of investigation that should have been conducted, quite frankly, when this process was under way. It shouldn't be an add-on. But now that it is, I think it will be very positive step." And he noted the investigation could result in "a real possibility at the end of this process to have U.S. officials monitoring it on a regular basis." Negative Ads...In IsraelTo start the week with an international flavor, here's a contrast ad broadcast by the Likud party in Istael. It takes on acting Israeli PM Ehud Olmert, a member of the new (and leading) Kadima party, for refusing to accept responsibility for the violence that accompanied the ouster of Jews from settlements. Those readers more adept at translating Hebrew are welcome to help us figure out the full script. Reps. Harris And Goode And The Wade IndictmentWhat Wade Did The defense contractor who bribed ex-Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R) says he directed $80K in illegal campaign contributions to two members of Congress. A staffer for one of the members inserted a $9M provision that benefited MZM into an approps bill. From the indictment: "His solution [to get around campaign finance laws] was to have his employees and their spouses make contributions to these two campaigns under their own names, then reimburse them -- a technique, known as "straw contributions" that is a felony under federal election law when the straw contributions amount to over ten thousand dollars. ... All in all, he made 39 different "straw" contributions, with 19 different employees or spouses. In order to maximize the impact of these contributions, Wade personally handed a number of the campaign contributions, in the form of personal checks from employees and their spouses, to one of the representatives." Who might those members be? Well, a San Diego Union-Tribune story from '05 suggests that Wade's employees were pressured to donate money to the campaigns of Cunningham, Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) and Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA). At FECINFO.com, we searched for all contributions given by MZM employees in '04. We found several dozen --just like the indictment says -- totaling about $60K -- to Harris and Goode. This list does NOT include contributions that spouses of MZM employees made to the two. No other candidate -- not even Cunningham -- received nearly as much. The dates in the indictment concur with the dates of the illegal contributions. The Wade plea agreement says that Wade did not inform the members that he was pressuring his employees to contribute to them and it's not at all clear whether the members are in any legal jeopardy. BTW: here's who MZM's PAC contributed money to in recent cycles. In '04
Note: Goode was never a member of the defense approps subcommittee; an earlier version of this post said he was.[MARC AMBINDER] More Ratings Facts: Flake's The Centrist's Centrist?National Journal Vote Ratings: Cuellar... And The HouseRep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) is the 13th least liberal Democrat in the House; on social issues, he was 60 percent more liberal than his colleagues; on economic issues, he scored a 53; on foreign policy issues, he scored a 55. (Check out all House members ranked by liberal scores and conservative scores.) On to the incumbent ratings for vulnerable GOP veterans: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (CO) leads the pack, but who would have thought that Rep. Steve Chabot (O-OH) would be second? Continue reading "National Journal Vote Ratings: Cuellar... And The House" » National Journal Vote Ratings: GOP Senators Up In '06All out of 100; listed from most conservative to most liberal.
National Journal Vote Ratings: Senate Dems Up In '06All out of 100;listed from most liberal to most conservative. The Futures Market: NevadaWhat's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives. GOPers seemed surprisingly defensive about their prospects in what is, for now, a red state. They're already looking to a bench that's weak, according to more than one GOP source, but that has its share of potentially huge candidates. Dems have a few stellar up-and-comers of their own, as well as the mayor of the state's biggest city and certainly the state's biggest ego, Oscar Goodman, to brag about. And of note, more than one potential candidate in the state is the child of a former office-holder, and trading on their parents' names gives them an advantage that none of them have squandered so far. [REID WILSON] National Journal Vote Rankings
http://nationaljournal.com/voteratings/ Since 1981, National Journal's annual vote ratings have defined where members of Congress have stood ideologically in each chamber. The ratings rank lawmakers on how they vote relative to each other on a conservative-to-liberal scale in both the Senate and the House. The scores are based on the members' votes in three areas: economic issues, social issues, and foreign policy. The process is lovingly supervised by National Journal congressional correspondent Richard Cohen, one of the best in the biz. Who's the most conservative Dem in the House? (It's not Cuellar.) Who's the most liberal Senator running for re-election? Has George Allen really become more conservative in office? James Dobson, Gay Rights And Reciprocal BenefitsIs Focus On The Family's James Dobson a sudden supporter of gay rights? Heavens to Betsy...Perish the thought. (He certainly would "never" do that, as he put it on a recent radio program.) But Focus on the Family is backing a CO bill that would permit same-sex couples to care for each other during illness and to enter into binding legal contracts. The bill, introduced by State Sen. Shawn Mitchell (R), would allow two people who can't get married to establish a "reciprocal beneficiary agreement" that allows them to make decisions about medical care and end-of-life dilemmas, would give them hospital visitation rights, extend domestic violence protections, would provide inheritance and property rights and even employee insurance benefits (provided their "reciprocal beneficiary's" company offers them.") Those are actual, tangible rights that unmarried couples -- gays included -- don't have. Focus on the Family argues that the bill codifies and streamlines what’s already legal: allowing two unmarried persons to enter into legal contracts. Also, the bill was introduced to blunt an argument raised by a separate domestic partnership referendum proposalthat a Dem lawmaker has written: chiefly, that gay couples are concretely and uniquely harmed by being prevented from, say, visiting a sick partner in the hospital. [MARC AMBINDER] Continue reading "James Dobson, Gay Rights And Reciprocal Benefits" » From Wake Up Call -- Romney On AbortionMA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), trying to "clear up any confusion" while in SC, said: "I'm pro-life. So, the issue is settled" (Columbia State). If You Didn't Know Already...The NGA comes to town on Saturday for its annual winter meeting, and if you didn't know before you certainly will by the time they wrap up: AR Gov/'08 prospect Mike Huckabee (R) is the group's chairman. Titled the "National Forum On Healthy America," this year's cold weather chief executive confab kicks off bright and early on Saturday morning with a "5K Fun Run/Walk." And before it is over on Tuesday nine more sessions will be devoted to issues relating to health, fitness, nutrition and well-being. Highlights include appearances by Olympic Gold Medalists, Food Network hosts, CNN's inimitable Dr. Sanjay Gupta, and another AR Gov known for his battle with the bulge -- Bill Clinton. Oh, and if that is not enough Razorback for ya, Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott will make news in his address to the group on Sunday night. Beyond elevating Huckabee, Hogs and Healthiness, the conference will include the usual WH Black-Tie shindig and next-day working session with the Prez. The DGA and RGA hold breakfast meetings with their most generous donors on Monday morning in between the two events. Also on tap is an RGA dinner for its top contributors ("Statesman and Cabinet") on Saturday night, a meeting of those who do at least $1K annually ("Team 1000") and a "Tribute to Presidential Leadership” fundraising gala on Monday. The DGA, for its part, puts on its "Taste of America" fundraising gala on Monday night. After the campaign cmtes' fundraising soirees on Monday night, the two parties can rejoin each other for a little late night "Tango at Zengo." Lobby shops Barbour, Griffith and Rogers and Dutko -- the former known for its ex-lobbyist, the latter for its ex-gov -- are hosting the get-together at one of the city's swanky new clubs in Chinatown. Lastly, be sure to walk down the block after Pres Clinton keynotes the final session on Tuesday morning to see IA Gov./'08 prospect Tom Vilsack speak at the Nat'l Press Club's Newsmaker Luncheon. And we know Vilsack is not the only other '08'er who will be out and about during the meeting. So let us know what your candidate/client is doing and we'll update our sked. Or do y'all want Huckabee to have all the fun?
On Transparency In Political ConsultingThe decision by the Steelworkers union to badger Dem consultants working for Rep. Henry Cuellar has lifted the curtains on a debate about transparency that many in the consulting world have urged for years. Doug Bailey, a legendary Republican consultant and the Hotline's founder, sees transparency as a step toward accountability. If consultants sign up candidates knowing that their decision will be subject to analysis and even to pressure by party activists and the media, "It causes consultants to make decisions on who they work for based not only on finances but on beliefs." Says Bailey: "They make a judgment call on something more than money because they're going to be held accountable for it. They ought to act is if everything they do ought to be known by the public. If they don't want it ot be known by the public, why are they doing it?" Virtually everybody in politics has their own brand of apostasy. And most consultants have had one night stands with strange bedfellows. Labor unions in New York supported Republican Mike Bloomberg while Dem firms (like Global Strategy Group, a target of the Steelworkers' anti-Cuellar campaign) slaved away on the traditional Dem campaign of Fernando Ferrer. And the very fact that Cuellar has D consultants is a signal that he's trying to wear the clothes of a Democrat. (Remember what party many of Bloomberg's consultants belonged to?) Bailey spent 20 years as an ad-maker and media strategist. "I came to the conclusion that it's the quality of the person that you're working for rather than the particular stands on the particular issues that matter. If you are reluctant to work for somebody because if somebody other people found out about it you wouldn't get other jobs, then what are you working for that person for?"
Says Bailey: "If the effort is to make it difficult for those consultants ever to get another job and to work aggressively to that no campaign ever hires those consultants again, that's probably going too far." But, he says, "I think it is appropriate for consultant to have to live with the consequences of their decisions." Says USW official Gary Hubbard, "The USW is always willing to try bold approaches in elections that reflect fierce persistence and commitment to our members' political values. We need to make an example of Cuellar so that Ciro Rodreguez is elected." In the same vein, will the Steelworkers, too, be held accountable for the candidates they've supported and firms they've hired? Consider this, too: it's easy to find out who works for whom. But transparency is near-impossible when consultants themselves subcontract work to third parties, who often possess the greater potential conflicts of interests. Many political consultants brag about their political clients but refuse to disclose their corporate clients. [MARC AMBINDER] Giuliani And The PortsWe wondered why ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani hasn't made a statement on the port issue.... He's in India and we're not sure whether he's been asked about it, yet. BTW: Giuliani's first visit to the Middle East (outside Israel) took him to Dubai in '04 for a leadership conference. Rocky Shoals At Port McCainGood policy ain't always good politics, and to the (probable) frustration of his political supporters, Sen. John McCain has a way of making clear that distinction. Looked at solely through the prism of presidential primary politics, the latest controversy over UAE port decision pits two of McCain's purported primary strategies against each other: courting Bush loyalists and courting conservatives. Can you find a Bush loyalist (Jimmy Carter? The NYT editorial page? Sean Hannity?) who's on Bush's side here? McCain is a smart political cookie and clearly understands the short-term peril of standing against the weight of elite political opinion. So even if you're inclined to believe that McCain puts his finger to the wind like every politician, you'd have to construct a fairly convoluted argument to make that theory fit here. While other potential '08ers like Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) were stepping out this week to criticize the WH, McCain issued a statement saying Bush had "earned our trust" and "deserves the presumption" that he "would not sell our security short." (Why not ask Frist and Allen where they think Bush has earned that presumption? If Bush has not, doesn't that undermine the entire Republican argument about Bush, trust and national security?) Somewhere along the line the two roads diverged in a yellow wood. McCain, of course, took the road less traveled. McCain sees the President's perspective. It's the only explanation for deliberately positioning himself against both Bush loyalists and movement conservatives. And even Democrats. Diageo/Hotline: Racial Optimism?When asked if America is ready to elect an African-American responses, 60% of GOPers said 'yes' compared to 43% of Dems.A similar trend is apparent with a potential Hispanic POTUS with 35% of GOPers and 21% of Dems saying the nation is ready. Are GOPers more tolerant or just more optimistic? When asked to rate race relations in the U.S. today 53% of GOPers say it is excellent/good, yet only 25% of Dems respond the same way. When asked how much progress has been made towards achieving racial equality Dems say 80% compared to GOPers' 86%. This is however far different than the response of African American's in a recent AP/AOL Black Voices poll when 66% said significant progress was made. Maybe Dems and GOPers are wearing some rose-colored glasses when it come to racial equality. There could also be some self-serving interest on both sides. Notice that a majority of Dems (56%) feel it is time to elect a woman because they have a viable woman waiting in the wings? (Yes, folks -- Hillary). The same is true for GOPers. A majority think the nation is ready for an African-American because of one Condoleezza Rice? The question becomes if Condi runs, despite her numerous objections to doing so, will she be identified as a woman or an African-American?
Diageo/Hotline Poll
State Of Race Relations In US Now?
All Dem Ind GOP
Excell 3% 2% 2% 4%
Good 34 23 32 49
Fair 43 48 49 36
Poor 17 26 13 8
Progress Towards Racial Equality?
All Dem Ind GOP
Great deal/some 82% 80% 80% 86%
Not much/none 15 19 16 10
[AOIFE MCCARTHY]
Diageo/Hotline: HRC's Standing ImprovesFrom the poll: Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is also taking full advantage of the GOP downturn, gaining ground in a WH '08 matchup with John McCain turning a 16 point deficit into 10 points after gaining 10 points among Dems. Clinton's fav rating has also increased, up 4 points overall from 1/06 and up 10 points among Dems and 6 points among indies. Despite a drop in approval among Dems and GOPers, Pres. Bush's approval bounced among indies, up from 36% last month, leaving his overall approval rating at 45%. Among the 52% who disapprove of Bush, 84% said there was not a time in recent months when they did approve of Bush. A far more detrimental sign is that 37% of GOPers said there was a time when they could recall approving of Bush. This means that in just the last few months Bush has lost support from a handful of GOPers. Not surprising considering the %age of GOPers who "strongly approve" of Bush has decreased by 12 points in the past year. Dick Cheney's fav/unfav rating has improved since 11/05, raising the question of what effect the recent shooting incident will have on the VP, keeping the mind that fav rating is very different than job approval. Diageo/Hotline: Dems ARE Taking (A Bit Of An) Advantage ...We'll post highlights from the latest Diageo/Hotline poll throughout the day. To obtain complete poll results, go to www.diageohotlinepoll.com/ Cong. Dems made some major in-roads this month, more than doubling their generic ballot advantage over GOPers from 7 points last month to 15 this month. Support among fellow Dems jumped from 79% to 88% and even support among GOPers increased 3 points. A similar trend can be seen in the control of Congress question -- while Dems increased only 1 point, GOPers experienced a dramatic loss falling from 35% to 29%. The 10 points loss of support among their own base is a major reason for this, but not to be overlooked is the 7 point loss among indies. Congressional approval as a whole has dropped just 1 point, but there have been great shifts within the party ID breakdown. Dem approval dropped from 29% to 19% allowing disapproval to jump 8% among Dems. Balancing the drastic Dem downturn, GOP approval has increased 4 points. This discontent among Dems can be seen beyond Congress too. Looking at the direction of the nation, only 6% of Dems think the nation is heading in the right direction, down from 15% in 1/06.
Wal-Mart To Expand Health Benefits For WorkersIn a speech to the National Governors Assoc. in DC on Sunday, Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott will announce plans to allow thousands more of its workers to purchase Wal-Mart health insurance plans and will press government leaders and business to start work immediately to overhaul to the country's health care system. Beginning in April, Wal-Mart will allow part-time workers to more quickly buy into the company's health plan. It will automatically designate children of those part time employees as beneficiaries of their parents' plans. And it will expand the availability of its least expensive plan to at least half of all Wal-Mart associates by the beginning of 2007. Scott will say that Wal-Mart plans to build 50 community health clinics in underserved communities near Wal-Marts. According to prepared remarks, Scott will say that "During our most recent open enrollment period, we signed up more than 70,000 associates who didn't have our health insurance before. Fifty thousand of those working men and women were previously uninsured. And this is just a start In the weeks ahead, we're going to take significant steps to make our health benefits even more affordable and accessible to the working families we employ." Wal-Mart's decision comes after months of public pressure by union-backed groups to shoulder more of the health care burden of its employees. Last week, the New York Times revealed that Wal-Mart managers were pressing Scott through an internal bulletin board to make changes. Maryland passed a law requiring Wal-Mart to pay more for health care, but similar efforts in other states have fallen short. Wal-Mart has been considering these changes for months. The company's bottom line is sound and some analysts expect a profitable '06 after a dismal '05. Hawkeye vs BuckeyeWant to know how each party will behave in the '08 presidential primaries? For one take, check out Hotline senior editor John Mercurio's new PolitiScope, which looks at two very different GOP races under way this year in a pair of Midwestern swing states. Diageo/Hotline Poll Has Bush Appvl At 45A Diageo/Hotline poll shows Pres. Bush's job approval is at 45% among regis. voters, down from 46% last month. Among the 52% who currently disapprove, only 14% said there was a time in the past few months when they did approve of the way Bush was handing his job. More later... The Futures Market: NebraskaWith term limits taking effect for the first time in '06, 20 of NE's 49 unicameral Sens will be out of jobs come this time next year. Dems are confident that they'll be able to influence a few elections, but GOPers are under no illusions about their ability to continue to dominate the chamber. While the legislature is technically non-partisan, everyone knows who stacks up where. On a statewide level, some GOPers believe that Gov. Dave Heineman (R) has a realistic shot against ex-UN football coach/Rep./local deity Tom Osbourne (R) and may pull off "the upset of the nation," according to one source. Overall, GOPers are confident that Cornhusker Red will continue to run through the state, while Dems openly admit that they'll need lightening to strike to take a major seat. [REID WILSON]
What You Need To Know About The SD Abortion Ban
It's equivalent, in that sense, to what gay groups did with Lawrence v. Texas. Yes, yes, there are numerous differences between the two, but the lesson here is that it often takes a legislature (in this case) or a group of lawyers (in Lawrence) to argue settled law in provocative new ways, hoping to deliberately provoke court challenges. Steelworkers Target Dem Consultants For CuellarIn their soon-to-be released book Crashing The Gates, Markos Moulitsas and Jerome Armstrong call for, among other things, the netroots to hold Democratic political consultants accountable for their decisions -- both for their tactical decisions in campaigns and for the candidates they recruit and sign up to help. The Steelworkers, one of the most politically adventurous unions in the country, is providing the first field test of their advice. Matt Stoller at MyDD first alerted us to this letter signed by Steelworkers president Leo Gerard. It lists the names and phone numbers of Dem consultants to Rep. Henry Cuellar (D), who has drawn labor's ire for his support of CAFTA and who "...has consistently voted against working people by voting for CAFTA, against OSHA, supporting Bush's budget and siding with Wal-Mart on child labor law, his close ties to anti-union groups such as the Club for Growth and BIPAC..." Per the letter: "Anybody working for Cuellar's reelection, therefore, is openly working against the interests of our members and the entire Labor Movement." The college of Dem consultants and interests groups normally keeps such intramural disputes inside the Vatican. But the Steelworkers, sensing the outrage Cuellar's candidacy has generated in certain precincts, is changing the rules of the game. Accountability, in general, is a good thing. (The Hotline is biased -- in favor of accountability!) People in power -- or people who help people in power -- ought to be held to account for their actions and their choices. At the very least, they ought to be able to answer questions about them. Whether this gambit workers -- whether it backfires -- whether it angers other unions or consultants (who often represent a variety of candidates with a variety of different positions) -- whether it enhances scrutiny of who consultants worked for in the past -- remains a question tonight. But it's an interesting tactic that strikes us as potentially more game-changing -- at least for the sociology of the political consulting profession -- than stunt-y. Charlie Wilson Missed His WarDid the DCCC just commit a blunder of epochal proportions? Or did they fall victim to the vagaries of complicated state ballot laws? Or to a stubborn candidate who let his son run his campaign? Charlie Wilson, one of the top Dem recruits this cycle, is in a first-class pickle tonight. The down shot: he didn't make it onto the ballot. Bear with us now. Wilson submitted 96 signatures 2/17 for his petition to get on the ballot. But the Columbiana Co. Board of Elections today disqualified half of them because they weren't from his home CD -- OH 06. (Incumbent Rep. Ted Strickland (D) is running for GOV.) In the 12-county district, Wilson collected signatures from only two counties that span two CDs: Scioto and Belmont, which includes his hometown of St. Clairsville. Ohio state law requires at least or, as we say in Washington, "just" -- 50 valid signatures to get on the ballot, and precludes candidates from submitting more than 150. Only 48 of the signatures were deemed valid. Wilson issued a statement after the board's meeting today: "In good faith I submitted more than enough valid signatures to the board of elections so I am obviously disappointed with this decision today. I am exploring a number of options and am confident that in November I will be on the ballot and I will win the privilege and responsibility of representing Ohio families in Congress." How did this happen? Some sources not sympathetic to Wilson speculate that the candidate relied too heavily on his son, Jason, who's currently serving as his campaign manager. Still, that alone doesn't explain the campaign's failure to get only 50 valid signatures -- a very low hurdle for ballot access. The requirement is, in a sense, silly, but it's not hard to understand. Dems are now considering two options: running Wilson as a write-in candidate in the primary or collecting 1,886 signatures for him as an independent candidate. The write-in approach seems more likely. The two other Dem candidates -- ex-GOP candidate Bob Carr and John Luchansky -- are obscure and are unlikely to draw much support in a primary. If Wilson's write-ins surpass the other two candidates' vote totals, he'll appear on the general election ballot. There's not too much precedent for candidates winning without being on the ballot. The most recent parallel comes from local politics. In the 2002 DC mayoral primary, Tony Williams handily defeated Willie Wilson with a write-in campaign. And in 1994, ex-Rep. Linda Smith won the WA 03 GOP primary on write-ins after a last-minute withdrawal from the leading candidate. Running as an independent is another option, though it would be less palatable. First, he'd have to get significantly more signatures than before. And one of the two announced Dem candidates would draw some votes away from Wilson. That could make the difference in a closely contested race. Even if Wilson manages to qualifies to get on the November ballot as a Democrat, this whole episode will drain a lot of resources that could've been used more productively. It'll take an infusion of money to quickly boost the GOTV for the 5/2 primary, which the DCCC wasn't expecting to spend. But this is one of the few Dem-held open seats this cycle, and it's one they need to retain if they want to make major gains in the midterms. The verb "recruit" in the political sense usually signifies the process of enticing a candidate to run AND making sure he or she gets on the ballot by filing deadline. Which is why the DCCC has questions of its own to answer tonight. WH Press Strategy And The PortsToday's Hotline spotlight asks: Does the WH lose a "security" fight very often? Make that ever? Even when the Dems look as if they are running to Bush's right on something, the WH usually intercepts and nabs the credit (see Homeland Security Dept.). That said, the knee-jerk Cong. GOP reaction on this Dubai-ports controversy is a classic case of, "we're on the ballot in '06, you're not." Even a neophyte knows creating the "Candidate X is weak on terrorism" ad isn't hard, thanks at least in part to an anti-Arab bias that is a bit more universal than some would like to admit. Hotline's House Race RankingsAs promised, we've expanded our race rankings to include the most vulnerable House seats (and, coming next week, the '08 presidential race). For the House rankings, we're picking the 25 seats most likely to change hands. Not surprising, there are more Republican than Democratic seats on the list, including nine of the top 10. There's one very simple reason for this: Republicans have won about every seat they can in the last two cycles, meaning their priority for 2006 is playing defense. It's about preventing 15 or more losses, not picking up seats. In contrast, the Democrats have lost about every seat they can as long as they don't have any surprising retirements in the next few months As one expert in House races noted when previewing our list, everything after number 15 is debatable. So expect to see a lot of movement in our top 25 in the bottom half as we get closer to the E-Day. [CHUCK TODD] The Hotline Straw Poll At SRLCThe Hotline presidential preference straw poll at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference has a free home on the web -- http://nationaljournal.com/srlc/. We'll update it with the latest news and notes and scheduling info, and if you can't attend the conference, the website will be your insider's guide. Our colleagues at the Almanac of American Politics have graciously allowed us to provide their FREE profiles of the potential presidential candidates who are speaking -- they include Sen. George Allen (R-VA), Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN), Sen. Mike Huckabee (R-AR), Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA). The TN GOP, which is sponsoring the straw poll, says that more than 1,200 GOPers have registered to attend. In an e-mail to RNC e-mail list members this weekend, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman wrote that "[a]ll eyes will be on Memphis, TN March 9-12 when the Republican Party leaders attend the SRLC." Aw, Hell No, Mr. President.Mike Krempasky at RedState posts this gem of an official letter from Rep. Sue Myrick (R-NC) to President Bush: Dear Mr. President, "In regards to selling American ports to the United Arab Emirates -- not just NO-- but HELL NO." "Sincerely," "Sue Myrick." Crank's Call IN CORep. Joel Hefley's retirement last week opened up a seat that hasn't been competitive in over two decades, but could still feature a lively GOP primary this summer. The Colorado Springs district is home to both James Dobson's Focus on the Family and the Air Force Academy, giving it a socially and culturally conservative mindset. The GOP primary is already shaping up: Ex-Hefley aide Jeff Crank and state Sen. Doug Lamborn are running. El Paso County Sheriff John Anderson announced his bid before Hefley's retirement, while Rev. Ted Haggard, pastor of CO's largest church, is not running. Despite his lower name ID, Crank has broad support. His work with Hefley gives him an inside track at the congressman's endorsement. He also has close ties to the district's evangelical community, whose efforts could be pivotal. He's also drawing support from the Club for Growth's CO chmn; their support would give him significant sums of money. It's early, of course. And Lamborn is touting the personal endorsement of Focus on the Family exec Tom Minnery. (Interestingly, another top Focus exec, pres. Jim Daly, endorsed Crank.) But in CO-05 this year, "who you know" might be more important than how many people know you. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR] Media Bashing In CrisesWill it ever die out? The Hotline's Chuck Todd wonders. As long as human beings are filling journalism jobs, bias is going to creep into reporting. It's not usually left/right bias as much as it is "exposure" bias, i.e., the idea that what reporters are exposed to on a daily basis in their lives inevitably will influence how or what reporters cover. Maybe a reporter who has had a friend murdered randomly is more likely than others to cover death penalty issues. Or maybe a reporter who has had a parent not get the best medical care is more likely to do a negative story on the issue. The point is, reporters are human beings, and all humans are biased about something. It's not usually party; actually, it's very seldom party and ideology. The Gay Rights Candidate In '08Will it be IA Gov. Tom Vilsack? As his term winds down and with a , he's not afraid to touch gay issues. But he also opposes same-sex marriage. Gay Group Slams Hillary ClintonThe New York Observer's Ben Smith obtained a memo from the chief of New York state's leading gay rights group, Empire Pride Pride Agenda, where Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's refusal to support gay marriage is labeled a "disappointment" and one reason why, in the view of Alan Van Capelle, the group's board should not help raise money for Clinton. From the letter: "Supporting an LGBT fundraiser for Hillary Clinton will actually hurt our community. It will send a message to other elected officials that you can be working against us during this critical time and not suffer a negative pushback from the gay community. We have become a community that throws money at politicians and we demand nothing in return. And that's what we get -- nothing. It's the wrong message to send." Our analysis: 1. Clinton opposes gay marriage. That's a consequence of her Midwestern Methodist upbringing, her generally cautious political sensibility, her own personal marriage history, something else entirely, or a combination of these factors. 2. A central organizing principle of the '08 campaign ontology for Dems has been that HRC has "the base" locked up. By the base, they mean: liberal women, African Americans, Hollywood, gays and lesbians, major fundraisers. Clearly, Clinton has nothing "locked up." But the reservoir of good will these groups have toward the Clintons is enormous. (Poll after poll in state after state provides evidence to support this contention.) There are a few important caveats. Much of the allegiance derives from a loyalty to and a love for Bill Clinton. The atomization of Dem base groups means that there will always be a few who publicly break away from the Clinton juggernaut. And many gay rights activists, in particular, have been wary of the Clintons even as they've worked with them over the years. 3. We assume those advisers in Clinton's world who are hammering together a national campaign in '08 will do their best to ensure that as many people outside New York as possible see this clip. Clinton, and most Americans, oppose same-sex marriage. (By contrast, Clinton, and most Americans, favor civil benefit parity for gay couples.) 4. Does this story suggest that the gay marriage issue is evolving? Maybe. Clinton will receive the overwhelming majority of the LGBT vote in New York State regardless. But the rough consensus exemplified by Clinton is not well explicated by any party or politician. The hyperpolarization in our political class allows powerful interest groups to draw clear lines through which politicians must not cross. It also allows for diversity within interest groups, as there will be plenty of LGBT fundraisers who roll their eyes at their Empire State friends and proudly proclaim their support for Clinton. 5. Any memo with the word "Hillary" in it from ANY group -- left or right -- ally or foe -- will get press and donor attention. [MARC AMBINDER] Santorum Swings Against Bush On PortsAs Sen. John McCain urges temperance and caution...an "outraged" Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) informs his campaign e-mail list that "it appears" as if the Bush Administration -- he prefers an inclusive "we" -- is "not taking the terrorist threat seriously enough." He is talking, of course, about the Dubai port deal. But Democrats may seize on his comments to argue that even Rick Santorum has awoken to what they've said all along -- that the administration has gratuitously relegated the prosecution of war on terror to its pursuit of, well, something, in Iraq (oil security?)-- and has endangered Americans. Santorum writes: "As I write you, the control of six major U.S. seaports -- including the Port of Philadelphia -- could be outsourced to the United Arab Emirates, a nation that was implicated in the events of 9/11." He asks: "How can we allow this to happen? The answer is: We can't." Santorum touts his Senatorial tough love, including his work with "a bipartisan" group of Senators to review the government acceptance of the deal." Let's stipulate that Santorum means what he writes. Consider the dilemma of the most vulnerable candidate in a party facing midterm losses with an unpopular president. Santorum implies that the Bush administration's priorities are out of whack. If the midterms are, as even some Dems fear they will be, a referendum on whether the Republicans (and not just President Bush) can keep America safe, Santorum is arguing that Bush -- and by his use of the pronoun "we" and by a not-out-of-bounds extrapolation, Republicans in power -- have not gone the extra mile to secure the country. A further question raised by Santorum's e-mail: if Republicans, in supporting the administration, haven't done enough on terrorism -- what have they done over the past six years? We can come up with some fairly persuasive answers to these questions, but the point is that the implied rationale Santorum's re-election campaign is not one of them. BTW: Governors can sue and use the bureaucracy to muck up the waters. Senators can...heckle. And threaten to...legislate. Which would trigger a veto. (And you wonder why Americans like to reach into state houses to choose their chief executives?) The e-mail is after the break. SC Litmus Test For '08: UpdatedWe've updated this post with a dispatch from Bob Jones University student David Siglin, who provides some context.
NRSC Picks Up The PaceThe National Republican Senatorial Committee NRSC) raised more $4.3M in January, twice as much as the Democrats' Senate committee took in, according to committee officials. Though the GOP's committee's bank account still lags its Dem counterpart by nearly $14 million overall, the NRSC believes its investment in harvesting small donors has begun to bear dividends. About $2M in donations to the NRSC came from checks under $200. Donors who don't contribute the maximum can give again -- and the NRSC hopes to reap more donations as their candidates better their positions in races. Alternatively, the committee is not above playing to the fear of Republicans losing the Senate altogether. Still, the NRSC's $4.3M total is less than the $5.3M it raised as the cycle began in 1/05 -- although the committee said that many institutional donors contributed early. And donors may have opened their wallets in anticipation of a major fundraiser Pres. Bush hosted last week. By this -- the midway point om the first midterm cycle after changes to the campaign finance laws, all six national party committees have spent millions to expand their contributor lists and find donors willing to write smaller checks repeatedly. Has the DSCC made the same investments in small donors? It's hard to tell. GOPers admit that chair Chuck Schumer has turned into the party's most dogged chaser of donors who can contribute the maximum. He's been helped in part by the donor community's tension with DNC Chairman Howard Dean and by the remarkable downturn (for Republicans) in the political environment. But he's mostly just that good. The Dems are raising money nearly twice as fast as they did during the last comparable cycle. The DSCC raised $2.1M in January. Bush's First Veto?If anyone tries to tamper with the decision to allow that Dubai-based company to operate ports, Pres. Bush said he would veto legislation to delay the deal, according to a WH pool report filed by the Washington Post's Jim VandeHei. Lawmakers, he said, must "step up and explain why a Middle Eastern company is held to a different standard." This is the first time the president has stepped up to make the implicit argument that Middle Eastern countries are no more inherently dangerous than any other; and that those who claim they are -- without saying why -- are skirting the bounds of, well, dare we say -- prejudice. Lawmakers are hammering away at Bush. Today, Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist strongly urged the WH to agree to a delay while the Senate reviews the security precautions. It's significant that Frist, who is privy (we assume) to the most sensitive national security info about the deal, is not satisfied. If the WH doesn't bow to a delay, Frist will promptly introduce legislation. Also today, Dems, including Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bob Menendez, urged Frist to introduce legislation right away to stop it. The politics of this are jumbled. The WH will probably dispatch heavy hitters to the Hill to ward off Senate passage of a delay. Meanwhile, a statement today by Maj. Leader John Boehner suggests he's much less inclined for Congress to get involved legislatively. And Sen. Min leader Harry Reid may expand the ranks of Senators who call on Homeland Security Sec. Mike Chertoff to resign; Dems can blast the administration for allowing this because Dubai's record of cooperation on terror matters has been a bit spotty at best. Further, they can enlist their union allies to help make an "America First" argument. They'll be seen as tough on national security -- going beyond the WH on port security. (BTW: it's worth pointing out that Dems, especially Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA), have long argued that the admin. neglected issues of ports and cargo in protecting the homeland -- even when no one was listening to them.) Establishment Republicans finally have a way of arguing that Bush is too close to the Saudis and amoral foreign oil interests -- by slamming his willingness to prop up Dubai's economy over our own basic security. And the legion of conservative Bush critics in Washington have yet another way to argue that the administration is, to paraphrase and embellish Sen. Lindsey Graham, simply, totally, unbelievably tone deaf. The Next SC Litmus Test?For Republicans in '00, it was whether to fly the confederate battle flag atop the state house dome, along with the US flag and state flag. The confederate flag went up in 1961 (to commemorate the Civil War Centennial) and came down in 2000.) For Democrats, it was supporting the NAACP boycott resulting from the state's refusal to modify the flag. (Remember when Dems didn't dare stay in hotels because they couldn't spend money in the state?) This article suggests that it may be... Starbucks coffee. Bob Jones University has changed its coffee suppliers because the company supports "homosexual events and causes." Apparently, one of those message cups contained a pro-gay message. Will that keep Mitt Romney out of Starbucks in Columbia? Will John Edwards make sure to bring the media with him as he purposefully (and somberly) strides into Starbucks? Will any potential '08 candidate visit Bob Jones again? Richardson Tightens NM Driver's License LawsNM Gov. Bill Richardson wants to make sure foreign nationals can't get divers' licenses by assuming fake identities. Today, he directed state regulators to require foreign nationals to provide two different proofs of identification before being permitted to obtain a state driver's license. One of them must contain a verifiable federal identification number. The other must be a passport issued by the person's country of citizenship. Richardson had wanted state lawmakers to require immigrations to provide their fingerprints in exchange for a license, but the legislative session ended last week without taking that action. Previously, foreign nationals in NM could obtain licenses by providing either a passport or a federal identification number -- not both. Richardson, who in '04 declared a state of emergency on NM's border, will not please critics of illegal immigration; NM's laws regulating foreign nationals and driver licenses remain among the country's least restrictive. But he remains a Dem who, because of his heritage and his actions in office, has earned the grudging respect of many who believe the country's border enforcement is woefully lax. The Futures Market: MontanaWhat's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives. Maybe the Mountain West Dem really is the party's path back to victory. While Dems have had a fantastic run of success in MT lately -- tying the House and re-taking the Sen and Gov mansion -- the best may be yet to come. Dems are enthusiastic about both major candidates running against embattled Sen. Conrad Burns (R) and even have good things to say about Rep. Dennis Rehberg's (R) challenger, though that's probably a little too optimistic. GOPers have several 20-something Sens with a lot of potential, but sources we talked to seem to believe that they'll have a hard time taking back the legislature within the next few years. [REID WILSON] Warner: Drink Diversity, AmericaVA Gov. Mark Warner tonight will attend a Happy Hour With A Purpose tonight -- and what a purpose it might ultimately be. These friendly cocktail outings began when he was VA GOV. They've allowed Warner and members of the Congressional Black Caucus and VA state legislators to mingle with a diverse group of young professionals and business leaders across the state of VA (and now, in DC). Thousands have bellied up, providing a unique way for Warner to informally expand his base. From an e-mail today announcing the event: "It's worked so well that the Governor plans to expand the Happy Hour With A Purpose concept to a national audience and broaden its focus to all Americans as he transitions out of public office and into the leadership of Forward Together PAC." "In the near future Happy Hour With A Purpose will take place every month at multiple locations across the country. We will coordinate the Governor's schedule so that he, and the candidates supported by Forward Together PAC, will be able to attend." Tonight, Warner and friends gather at Top Of The Hill beginning at 6:30 p.m. Libby's WebsiteWe're not sure why the website needs to know our zip code and our gender in order for us to get e-mail updates, but Libby's nothing if not surprising. Check out the cool header quote from Dick Cheney. Heavy HittersHigh-profile leaders from both parties have been helping candidates raise money in recent weeks. -- VP Dick Cheney will appear at a 3/13 fundraiser for WI 08's Jon Gard (R). He's already banked money for high-profile GOPers Max Burns (GA 12), Mac Collins (GA 08) and Rick O'Donnell (CO 07). -- Min Whip Steny Hoyer (D) has been a frequent flier for Dems. Earlier this month, he traveled to Albuquerque to raise cash for NM 01's Patricia Madrid. This week, he's heading south to fundraise for FL 13's Christine Jennings. -- While most red-district Dems aren't eager to campaign with Min Ldr Nancy Pelosi, she's held a fundraiser for IL 06's Tammy Duckworth. She's also raising money for OH 18's Joe Sulzer next month. -- And Pres. Bush isn't always a welcome guest for GOPers in Kerry districts: Martha Rainville (R), running in liberal VT, said she'd decline his help. Her preferred candidate? John McCain [JOSH KRAUSHAAR] The Buckshot's HereCheney, Chertoff and wiretaps; Bayh and Frist get '08 questions; and Matalin shoots a Diva at Dowd. If you missed the Sunday shows, you'll need to check the Hotline's Doolittle Does A Lot Of TalkingRep. John Doolittle (R-CA), who may or may not be near the center of the Jack Abramoff-related Justice Dept. probe, sat down with the Sacramento Bee for an hour-long interview on the condition that the entire transcript of the interview be made public. Doolittle admits to personal friendships with both Abramoff and Brent Wilkes, the lobbyist at the center of the Duke Cunningham investigation. Doolittle comes across as frustrated but not defiant by the surfacing of his name in both scandals. He clearly doesn't believe he did anything wrong and blames others for creating the innuendo of his involvement. In talking about both Abramoff and Wilkes, Doolittle does not trash them (a la Bob Ney), but expresses disappointment in them both. Some may interpret Doolittle's nice words on Abramoff as a sign he's hoping not to draw the ire of the disgraced lobbyist who clearly is cooperating with Justice's investigation.
Paris Hilton Union Busting? Keep Reading...Remember those full-page ads that ran earlier this week in the WP, NYT and WSJ touting a website called "unionfacts.com?" Yeah, the ones with the lock on the gate. We called over to this new outfit, Union Facts, to figure out who was behind them. After all, full-page spreads in such publications don't come cheap. Their financial patrons, we were told, are private. And as a 501(c) 3, they won't have to file any pesky FEC reports disclosing their sugar daddies. A union source, though, insisted that their backing comes from the Chamber of Commerce. Our source said that Union Facts's business-connected president, Richard Berman, pitched his new organization at a January meeting in Florida of the state Chambers of Commerce. Following his speech, the story goes, the state chamber officials pledged to back to the group to the tune of $2M per quarter. We ran this by the nat'l Chamber, and it didn't ring true. State chambers did hear the pitch, we were told, but they have yet to commit to spending much money. If the new group shows some moxie and gets the job done, then the state chambers might part with more of their cash. Still -- a chamber vice president does serve on Union Facts's advisory board, per our source. Still playing "follow the money," we called another likely suspect -- Wal-Mart. But their D.C. honcho, Lee Culpepper, said the folks at his "home office" in Arkansas had told him that the retail giant has "not donated money to Union Facts." So just where are the dollars coming from to support this organization? Well, keep this in mind. Their second ad ran yesterday. The target? Bruce Raynor, the head of the union that has garnered headlines recently for its nat'l effort, aided by ex-Sen John Edwards and Danny Glover, to organize hotel workers. So, without a shred of evidence that they may be involved, what say you, Hilton family? [JONATHAN MARTIN and MARC AMBINDER] From The State House To The Big HouseThe following are individuals who have held state or federal legislative office or a major mayoralty and are currently in jail. Please email any corrections or omissions to Quinn McCord.
Entered Scheduled
Name Crime Jail Release
Edwin Edwards Extortion 10/02 7/11
Ex-LA Gov.
Ed Mezvinsky Bank fraud 2/03 10/09
Ex-U.S. Rep. (IA) Wire fraud
Mail Fraud
James Traficant Racketeering 8/02 9/09
Ex-U.S. Rep. (OH) Bribery
accepting
illegal
gratuities
Obstruction
of justice
Vincent Cianci Conspiracy 12/02 7/07
Ex-Providence Mayor
The 2/17 HotlineTV Is Now Up!This week on HotlineTV, Hotline editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio take a look at what the Cheney shooting really means. They'll talk about which candidates -- if any -- could realistically run for prez as Indies and whether or not Dems are beginning to do what it takes to become a real political party. And finally, they rank the five Gov races most likely to result in recounts -- and we think you may be surprised. Check out HotlineTV, free every Friday from two of the top minds in political journalism. DNC Will Seek Bids From 11 CitiesThe list of eleven cities expressing interest in hosting the Democratic National Convention in '08 are:
Las Vegas has the West, plenty of hotel rooms, party spaces and Harry Reid juice but there's that liberal Sin City taint. (If only Henderson made a bid...) Texas is attractive to Dems for obvious reasons -- Dallas more so than San Antonio. Detroit has a shot if it the economy turns around. New Orleans is a sentimental favorite; the '08 convention there could signal a "national renaissance." NYC ought never be ruled out and is probably the most secure city; Orlando has the hotel rooms but not the arena. Denver is the wildcard; a popular Dem mayor, a great purple state, clean, fresh air.. Vilsack Nabs Major Party Fundraiser: Update/CorrectionDemocratic fundraiser Louis Susman said he's not headed to the presidential preparatory team of IA Gov. Tom Vilsack. Susman tells us he "has not signed up as a senior adviser" for Vilsack's Heartland PAC. And I will not be the national finance chair of the PAC." Susman says he has no horse in the race. That's after Democrats told the Hotline this morning that Susman had agreed to advise the PAC and that would consider becoming its national finance chair. One fundraiser said Susman has made phone calls on behalf of the PAC. An earlier version of this post characterized Susman's relationship with the PAC incorrectly. He has not "signed up" as an adviser, as the PAC does not have formal advisory positions. Other items: From Wake Up Call -- Morning Must Reads
In late 11/05, Paul Hackett (D) got a call from Senate Min. Harry Reid, who said: "I hear there's a photo of you mistreating bodies in Iraq. Is it true?" (Mother Jones). Ex-Steeler Lynn Swann (R) said he was "very proud" of his voting record and would take no more questions about it (Philadelphia Inquirer). Meet Karyn Frist
As Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist upshifts his national political operation this year, expect to see a lot more of his wife Karyn Frist. She is well-known in Nashville and chairs numerous Washington, D.C.-area charities. She gets along famously with Democratic spouses and pols. She is tough and vivacious. But she has refrained from playing a visible role in her husband's pre-presidential exploratory activities. That is changing. She made the rounds at last week's Conservative Political Action Conference. She traveled with him to New Hampshire. She sent our her first e-mail to his political action committee list seeking surprise birthday wishes for her husband. A Frist political adviser acknowledges that her new visibility is purposeful. And while the adviser would not say why, the reasons are clear enough to long-time Frist observers. She humanizes her hubsand, who can be stiff and workmanlike on the campaign trail. She's quick with a quip in one-to-one conversations. She's a reminder that Frist, a heart surgeon, has a big heart -- is a family man, with three children. Her politics are not discernable from her public statements, but some of those who knew her in Nashville say she has a preference for competence and pragmatism and is not a natural social conservative. Like her husband, she delves into health care; Karyn Fryst and Debbie Dingell, a GM lobbyist who is the wife of Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) are co-chairs of the Children's Inn at the National Institutes of Health. Bill and the then-Karyn McLaughlin met in Boston in 1981 and married quickly. She was a flight attendant at the time. He was a dashing young heart cutter. Their families have grown close; Frist attends the McLaughlin family Christmas reunion every two years. Karyn Frist is not a fan of the media; the Frist kids -- all college-aged now -- got themselves into teenage scrapes that otherwise would have been unremarkable (except for this) were it not for the status of their father. She is very protective of her family's privacy, according to those who know her. "He would be a great president," she told Chris Matthews in 2000. "But I'm not sure if I want my husband to be president." [MARC AMBINDER] Second House GOP Retirement This WeekAccording to the Rocky Mountain News, via a "breaking news" email alert, Rep. Joel Hefley (R-CO 05) has decided to retire. It's not a big surprise as rumors of his pending retirement have been circulating for months. This is a very Republican district and boasts one of the country's leading conservatives as a voter: Focus on the Family's James Dobson. Hefley is the second House Republican to announce his retirement this week, joining Rep. Bill Jenkins (R-TN 01).
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Did Jack Oliver, a top fundraiser for Sen. Jim Talent and former deputy chair of the Republican National Committee, secretly receive a $10K personal check from the Coushatta Indian tribe?
That's the line MO DEMS are pushing. The facts, however, suggest differently.
It's indisputably true that, on a ledger released by the tribe, an entry, dated March 6, 2002, lists plans for a $10K check to be written to one "Jack Oliver."
Not out of the ordinary; as the party's liaison with major donors, Oliver frequently raised money; donors often wrote checks to the RNC because he asked them to. That his name would appear in the records of one party to one such transaction is not unusual.
A copy of the actual check, written about nine days later and provided to the Hotline by the RNC today, lists the recipient as the Republican National Committee.
Why? The tribe wanted to achieve "Eagle" level status. Who recruited Eagle-level donors? Jack Oliver.
There is no mention of Jack Oliver's name on the actual check and the RNC provided documentation showing the check was duly cashed.
The other entries in the same ledger, which listed checks the tribe had authorized its political agents to write, were all sent to campaigns and parties -- including, incidentally, Sen. Tom Daschle's DASHPAC.
So why was Jack Oliver's name in the ledger entry? As one of the party's chief fundraisers, his job was to raise money. He may have solicited the donation. His name may have appeared on a direct mail piece that spurred the Coushattas to give. He sought out donors who wanted to reach a particular donation level.
Either way -- there is no evidence that the check was written to Oliver, or that he cashed a check, or that he had any reason to solicit any personal money from the Coushettas. The available evidence, which includes documentation kept by all sides in the matter, links the ledger entry to a legal RNC contribution. The RNC, in fact, cashed the check, and appropriately so.
The Dems are engaged in what logicians would call the fallacy of poisoning the well -- framing an argument by cherry picking some facts about Oliver's life and career -- and then using that frame to argue that every subsequent action should be interpreted in the worst possible light, eliding over simpler, benign, and far more likely explanations.
It's similar to what Republicans engage in when they demand PA SEN candidate Bob Casey Jr. return a check from a former associate of Jack Abramoff's who, at the time he wrote the check, had left Abramoff's firm and had nothing to do with Abramoff or any of the tribes. Or when the Republican Party bases much of its knock on Harry Reidfor, apparently, representing Nevada gaming interests.
The other criticism against Oliver -- for example, that he allegedly helped generous donors to the RNC (some of them Abramoff-connected) get meetings with government officials -- they are what they are.
Except even here, part of the attack's conclusions do not follow from the evidence. The article cited in a MO DEM release says only that the Coushettas asked Oliver to help set up a meeting between a tribal official and a Dept. of Interior official. The meeting later took place. Post Hoc; Ergo, Propter Hoc? There's no evidence that Oliver helped the tribe. Maybe he did, maybe he didn't.
BTW: We'll engage in the fallacy of common practice by saying that finance chairs of the party in power routinely help donors set up meetings with officials; (Dems in the Clinton Administration certainly did.)
This context will not do much to tame the political debate -- and Jack Oliver can defend himself, if he wants -- but the facts do not support the charges floated by the MO DEM party. [MARC AMBINDER]
The MO Dem release is after the jump.
At the Conservative Political Action Convention, '08 potential/Sen. George Allen (R-VA) announced his "Paycheck Penalty" bill, which would hold Congressional members' bi-weekly paychecks until they pass the yearly budget.
So here's one for the trivia buffs: When was the last time Congress passed a budget on time, by October 1? As Allen spokesperson John Reid pointed out, many state legislatures stay up until the wee hours of the morning to pass their budgets, so why shouldn't Congress do the same?
For example, take FY '04: A Senator earned about $160K, or $6.1K a paycheck every two weeks, and the budget wasn't passed until mid January '04 (about 16 weeks late), then the Feds would have held onto $48K until January.
If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around, does it make a sound? If a U.S. Senator misses a paycheck and (s)he is independently wealthy, does anyone notice? Says Reid: "Surely every U.S. senator would notice that they didn't have that money coming in. Whether or not they could make a mortgage payment varies from person to person."
We weren't the only ones curious about the proposed bill. In a press release last week, VA Sen '06 candidate Harris Miller (D) asked Allen to return part of his pay he received in the Senate when the budget was overdue, totaling about $229K by their calculations. (By contrast, the American Conservative Union's David Keene loves the proposal. )
That's a political shot, of course, but it raises a question: if Allen really wanted to get senators' attention, shouldn't he have proposed actually docking their pay? Or offered to dock his own pay?
His proposal now seems a bit toothless...which makes it seem a bit more gambit-ish than Team Allen might want. [Shira R. Toeplitz]
1. NY Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) had an emergency appendectomy today and won't travel to NH tomorrow.
2. Sen. Bill Frist's VOLPAC wants to help fellow TNeans attend the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. Here's a notice that posted on the Nashville-Davidson Co. GOP website:
"Important Note! Most of the potential Presidential candidates for 2008 will attend, and the first straw poll for the 2008 Presidential election will be held. Your participation is important. If you are unable to attend the entire conference, please consider attending on Saturday and participate in the straw poll. To make it EASY and FUN, a bus has been chartered to take those attending on Saturday, March 11th. The bus will depart Bellevue Mall at 7:15 a.m. Attendees will participate in the Straw Poll (10 -- 12 or 2 -- 5). They can also attend the luncheon with Senator Frist as the Keynote Speaker. There is a private party from 2:30 -- 4:30 at the Rendezvous (Famous Ribs). The bus will return to Nashville (Bellevue Mall) at approximately 8 p.m.""To reserve your place on the bus, contact Beth Campbell at 297-XXXX(CENSORED@comcast.net) or Jack Johnson at 403-XXXX(JCENSORED@PNFP.com). Please give your name, address, email address and phone numbers (land line and cell)."
We've updated our post on Dick DeVos's mammoth MI TV intro buy with the full text of the ad.
We hear that major television networks and some print entities are trying to figure out a way to follow the Vice President during his weekend sojourns.
Typically, Cheney is unmolested by the media on weekends. No one, aside from a protestor or two, stakes out the Naval Observatory in DC and his staff keeps his schedule closely held.
The President, by contrast, almost always has a full protective pool of print and television reporters accompanying him -- even when he attends completely private events, such as a fundraising reception at the home of Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist last week, or one of his impromptu outings to a favorite Tex-Mex joint in Cleveland Park.
But when Cheney wants to get out of town, he can come and go as he pleases. Major media organizations have tried to keep track of Cheney informally but have had little success. (The last time the media camped out on Mass. Ave was during the '00 recount -- when Gore was in office.)
So the networks are thinking about establishing an informal pool to stake out the Naval Observatory and to exchange, on a limited basis, editorial information to facilitate that pool.
Print outlets will also ramp up their coverage.
Network officials we spoke to declined to provide details about their internal coverage plans; others did not respond to e-mails and phone calls seeking comment.
Keeping Cheney, whose Secret Service codename is "Angler," in their, ah, sights will be hard. Marine choppers often ferry the VP from the Observatory to nearby destinations and to Andrews Air Force Base, where planes designated as Air Force II are kept ready for takeoff.
Cheney's on-the-ground departures are much more informal on weekends, when his schedule is essentially (and purposely) random to the outside world. His motorcade, generally a flashy affair with eight lumbering vehicles and a police escort, is whittled down to a few armored SUVs with no police escort. His travels, to the well-justified comfort of the Secret Service, are often unremarkable and unnoticed in the streets of Northwest Washington.
When Cheney travels out of state, be it to his well-guarded Wyoming ranch or to fly-fish in Oregon or hunt in Texas, his retinue is kept to a his standard compliment of Secret Service, a half dozen military aides for communication and to facilitate his role in chain of command, military medical personnel and one or two advance staffers -- at most.
Of the dozens of trips he's made, only a handful have found their way into the newspapers, usually because an excitable staff member at a regional airport leaks word to the local press.
The task will not be impossible.
If a helicopter takes off from -- or lands at -- the Observatory, neighbors surely notice. (Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is one of them.) And the aircraft arrival and departure frequencies for the Washington, D.C. area are public and not encrypted.
Usually, the vice president's airplane is given the call sign "Air Force Two" -- which means that any scanner buff with a cheap 1980s' model handheld radio scanner can figure out if the Vice President is leaving or coming -- and when. (We've heard the call sign ourselves on our trusty Pro-96.)
That knowledge won't compromise security -- but it might help the media keep tabs on a very private VP.
Cheney's spokesperson, Lea Anne McBride, said that the OVP will consider any pool request it receives and that "it will continue to work with the networks' and print pool contact[s] on their coverage as that is the appropriate course set forth in our agreement."
That agreement provides for a pool when Cheney's out of town trips include scheduled political or governmental events. But it says nothing about what news organizations may do on their own when the pool is not specifically invoked for a trip. [MARC AMBINDER]
This morning, the New Hampshire Union Leader's John DiStaso reports that Sen. John McCain's PAC has enlisted the services of Susan Duprey, who co-chaired Pres. Bush's '00 NH finance effort.
A key to building presidential campaigns, as McCain's advisers know, is relationships. They generate money and even more connections and can help nip problems and opponents in the bud.
Duprey is a big nab for McCain.
We've written about McCain's concentrated efforts to recruit Bush Pioneers and Rangers to his team. And more recently, the Washington Post has added some names to the roster.
A comprehensive list is hard to come by, because many in the Bush world are reluctant to go public with their McCain affiliations too early and others do not want to signal that they're "left" the Bush world for McCain's campaign to replace him.
In talking to several of these fundraisers, what's remarkable is how open Bush seems to his finance team helping McCain. Tom Loeffler, for example, told us that he broached the issue with Pres. Bush directly. And while he was reluctant to provide details about the conversation, we got the impression that the President said nothing to give Loeffler pause.
To compile a more comprehensive list, we looked at a subset of donors to McCain's PAC: those who have contributed at least $4K. (The max. is $5K). We compared that list to a roster of Bush Rangers and Pioneers. There are at least a dozen names in common, including some of the party's most important mega-bundlers -- those who can write checks and who can influence others to write checks.
Donating money to McCain's PAC does not necessarily signal an intention to support him in '08; many Pioneers and Rangers will be eager to help the Leadership PACs support GOP candidates (and perhaps hedge their bets.) But a near-maximum contribution is usually a sign of serious interest.
McCain has Texans who were shut out. Many NY/NJ and CT donors ponied up after a successful STA event in November. Others waited until the last minute to send in their checks -- usually a sign that they're aware of how those checks would be interpreted by the outside world.
Those who have given to McCain include: [MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "McCain Nabs Another Bush Fundraiser...." »
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
Now, Missouri. The benches of both parties are licking their chops for the coming cycles, when several retirements seem likely to catapult the farm team to the big leagues. GOPers can't wait for Rep. Ike Skelton (D) to retire from his safe but heavily-GOP seat, and Dems are happy with a few recent gains in the legislature. A number of stars from both sides are also considering bids for AG and Sec/State, should current Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D) make a bid for Gov, as expected. MO's stars may not be names we know about now, but we'll hear about them in a short time. [REID WILSON]
From The Dallas Morning News: ""Kenedy County sheriff's deputies have redoubled their efforts to investigate the case after criticism of their decision not to interview witnesses until a day after the shooting."
"Ms. Armstrong said she faxed a detailed account to deputies on Wednesday at the sheriff's request. She said she would have done so sooner if she'd been asked and added that everyone at the ranch has been encouraged to tell the truth about the shooting."
Also:
Remember the report that Sheriff Salinas told folks on Monday that a deputy had been turned away by the Secret Service on Saturday night?
Well, per the New York Times, -- "The Washington Post on Wednesday quoted Sheriff Salinas as saying that he first learned of the shooting from one of his captains, who had been summoned to escort the ambulance, but that he arrived after the ambulance left and that the Border Patrol agent guarding the gate during Mr. Cheney's visit knew nothing of any shooting. Sheriff Salinas did not return repeated calls, and a reporter seeking to resolve the discrepancies was turned away Wednesday by the sheriff's office in Sarita, which said he was 'unavailable.'"
"Sheriff Salinas said he had dispatched a deputy, and he later issued a news release suggesting that the officer had been turned away at the ranch."
The headline of Peggy Noonan's latest column: "Hit Refresh?: Why Bush may be thinking about replacing Cheney."
We remind: Noonan wrote speeches for Bush during the campaign. Is close to many in the Bush White House. Is particularly close to the orbit of Bush '41 and that covey of ex-Reagan aides who advise Karl.
Noonan:
"The Dick Cheney shooting incident will, in a way, go away. And, in a way, not--ever. Some things stick. ... Can media bias be detected in the endless coverage? Sure, always. But it's also a great story. ... Right now in the White House they're discussing how to help the vice president get through his problem. ... But what are they thinking that they're not saying? Here's a hunch, based not on any inside knowledge but only on what I know of people who practice politics, and those who practice it within the Bush White House.
I suspect what they're thinking and not saying is, If Dick Cheney weren't vice president, who'd be a good vice president? They're thinking, At some time down the road we may wind up thinking about a new plan. ... Why would they be thinking about this? It's not the shooting incident itself, it's that Dick Cheney has been the administration's hate magnet for five years now."
ON CALL I N D E X • 2/15/06 |
» Cheney Speaks LINK · LINK · | » The RNC's E-Campaign LINK · LINK · » MA Dems Won't Endorse For Sen LINK · » A GOP Retirement in TN LINK · » Dean Seeks To Calm Base LINK · » Cities Bid For RNC convention LINK » It's Raining In VT LINK » The Futures Market: Mississippi LINK ·
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Michael Turk, the former e-campaign manager of the RNC, is on an excited tear about the future of political parties and the Internet. At turns, he seems to be critical of his former employers. At other points, he's full of praise. In an e-mail to us today, he said an earlier post of ours -- where we said that Turk believed "his former boss, Ken Mehlman, would not tolerate much dissent from The Message or bear to relinquish control over any lever of political power."
Our interpretation of Turk's original post, which you can find here, was that Turk believed the RNC didn't understand that embracing the blogosphere philosophically necessarily entails the willingness to relinquish control -- at least a little bit.
"That is absolutely not what I was saying. If you really want to know what I was saying, feel free to ask next time," he wrote to us.
But in a subsequent post to RedState, Turk wrote that he has "nothing but respect for Ken. I enjoyed working for him for nearly two years and find him to be anything but a control freak or a person who would quash dissent. That's not his style."
He continues: "My issue is with the GOP communications machine. Their issue isn't dissent, it's semantics." [MARC AMBINDER]
Continue reading "The RNC's E-Campaign: A Dialogue (PART ONE)" »
Michael Turk responds:
First, keep in mind the post was titled Practical Restrictions. I was talking about two things - larger issues of why the RNC has trouble doing things and a suggestion that people not pillory Patrick Ruffini because he has to do the best he can in the environment of those practical restrictions.
The post was ineloquent. I'll be the first to admit that. I didn't expect it to get the attention it has. Had I seen that coming, I would have been more careful with my words.
Stifling dissent is absolutely not the issue. I could make an argument for that, and did in the link I e-mailed to you yesterday.
This has nothing to do with those who comment and everything to do with those who cover the comments. The very fact that I am writing this speaks to the eagerness with which some will attempt to portray dissension in the GOP. I, by commenting on RedState, unwittingly became a part of that.
Continue reading "The RNC's E-Campaign: A Dialogue (PART TWO)" »
From Last Call!
SHOT . . .
"One of the worst days of my life" -- Cheney (2/15).
. . . CHASER
"One of the most difficult and traumatic experiences of my life" -- Chertoff (2/15).
After much delay, Martha Rainville (R) announced she's running for the at-large House seat in Vermont. The adjutant general of the VT Nat'l Guard critiqued the House GOP leadership, questioned the wisdom of invading Iraq and said she supports abortion rights.
Her positions are necessary in the liberal state, where the GOP bears little resemblance to its nat'l counterpart. In fact, Rainville doesn't sound much different than Tammy Duckworth (D) in IL 06.
This election will show whether the candidates' positions or their party labels mean more to voters. If she wins the GOP nod, she'll face state Sen Peter Welch (D), who has argued that a vote for Rainville is a vote for the nat'l GOP agenda. VTers are an independent bunch, electing both a GOP gov and a self-proclaimed Socialist congressman.
But if the party label becomes a serious impediment for Rainville, vulnerable northeastern GOP incumbents (Gerlach, Johnson, Shays, Simmons) could also be seriously threatened come 11/06. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
One of Sen. John Kerry's regular lines on the '04 stump was that "Massachusetts" was an old Indian word for "Land of Many Kennedys." But despite its recent GOV history, the Bay State could also be fairly described as "Land of Many Dems." They control both chambers on Beacon Hill with wide margins and hold all 10 of MA's House seats in DC.
And, as was revealed after Kerry got the Dem nomination in '04, many from this latter group would like to trade their "Rep" prefix for a "Sen" one. What does this have to do with the GOV race? Quite a bit. Only 3 of the 10 MA Rep's have endorsed in the race to succeed Gov. Mitt Romney (R) -- Rep. Marty Meehan (D-05) and Rep. Richard Neal (D-02) for AG Tom Reilly (D), and Rep. Jim McGovern (D-03) for ex-Dep US AG Deval Patrick (D). Meehan was one of the Dems who made his interest in Kerry's seat known in '04. Also mentioned as eyeing a suite in the "Upper Body" was the House delegation's senior member, Rep. Ed Markey (D-07), and Rep's Barney Frank (D-04), Stephen Lynch (D-09) and William Delahunt (D-10).
But, for now at least, Meehan is the only gambler in the bunch. Even though MA gov's no longer have appointive powers in the case of a Senate vacancy (thank you, Tom Finneran), Markey, Frank, Lynch and Delahunt are staying out of the GOV race -- and thus avoiding the wrath (or forfeiting the warmth?) of a future Dem gov in Beacon Hill's corner office.
Hume to Cheney: "So I take it you missed the bird?"
"Ultimately, I'm the guy who pulled the trigger who fired the round that hit Harry... That's the bottom the line. It was not Harry's fault. You can't blame anybody else. I'm the guy who pulled the trigger and shot my friend. It's a day I'll never forget.
More: "The image of his falling is something I'll never get out of my mind. I fired and there's Harry falling. I'd have to say, it was ... the worst day of my life.
The Hotline's Chuck Todd says the timing of the GOP's assault on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's personality caught him off guard. And perhaps, it was a bit too soon.
"Sure, bashing Hillary is always an effective way to rally the base, but doing it in February tells us the GOP still hasn't fixed its problems with the base going into 2006. Beating up on the Clintons has long been the message of last resort for the GOP when it's backed into a corner. Like national security, hating Hillary is an issue that unites the disparate conservative coalitions that comprise the current Republican Party."
Here's a statement the DNC just released from chairman Howard Dean. It differs somewhat markedly from what the Dr./ex-Gov. said last night, although it does appear to be an acknowledgment of the anger in some activist quarters at efforts by some Dem leaders like Rep. Rahm Emanuel to push Hackett out of the race.
Dean: "I admire Paul Hackett[.] [He's] done a lot for the country and stood up for America and our democratic values. I consider him a great friend and I sincerely hope he will remain active in Democratic politics. The Democratic Party was very lucky to have two outstanding candidates in the race for Senate in Ohio."
"Now that the possibility of a bitter primary that inadvertently benefits a republican incumbent is behind us, I want to urge everyone to come together in support of Sherrod Brown. Everyone who knows Sherrod knows that he has been a strong advocate for Ohio's working families in Congress, and will continue to stand up for them in the U.S. Senate. Ohio voters also know that they can count on Sherrod Brown to fight the Republican culture of corruption that Mike DeWine is a part of, and refocus our government on creating jobs that stay in Ohio, improving access to health care for all Americans, and promoting a strong public education system that restores opportunity and optimism."
We heard Mike Allen refer to this on Larry King Live, and this morning, The Note offers up this nugget: "Sources close to the Vice President say that there was actually a statement prepared either by Cheney, or with his help, to be delivered Sunday morning after the accident. It was something the White House suggested -- and might have been prepared with some White House help. But it was determined by his advisors and by him that morning that it was too 'convoluted,' and might not be the best way to proceed. They decided it might be best to have somebody who actually witnessed the accident explain what happened. For some reason, they thought that would seem more 'credible,' hence, the involvement of Katherine Armstrong. They now see that this was likely bad judgment."
Here's what Allen said last night: "And, Larry, the vice president and one of the staff members actually had worked up a statement that they considered releasing on Sunday morning but it was so obtuse and elliptical that it was decided that that would just cause even more of a frenzy, so they waited to do it this way."
VP Dick Cheney has chosen a sympathetic interviewer to pour out his heart: he'll tape a session with Brit Hume today at 2:00 p.m., according to a White House pool report.
To paraphrase Shep Smith... word today that Rep. Bill Jenkins (R-TN), has decided to retire.
Jenkins represents TN's first cong. district, which gave Pres. Bush 68% of its vote in '04. It'll be hard for Dems to recruit there -- but not impossible. The Almanac of American Politics tells us that the district's geography and industry make it uniquely sensitive to the prevailing economic winds. The demographics are changing; it's an old-line big-R-Republican district that's more party-faithful than ideologically bound to conservatism. Dems say it's the most liberal Republican district in TN. Still, as the Almanac notes, voters haven't elected a Dem there for 100 years. It's so Republican, it was Republican when it wasn't cool to be Republican in the South -- like, during and after the Civil War; "Scalawag" central, in other words.
The bottom line, though, is that retirements in environments like this one -- even in steady GOP districts -- are not the best news for the incumbent party.
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
Today, Mississippi. A number of African American GOPers made our list, though many seem to have chosen the wrong districts to run in. While they're popular on their home turf, no one expects several to move up because of the heavily-Dem tilt of their CDs. Dems, meanwhile, have some momentum after one of their stars beat out a GOPer for whom Sen. Trent Lott (R) and Gov. Haley Barbour (R) had personally campaigned. Dems see that election as a possible turning point heading into what they hope is a successful '06. One sign of their future success will be MS 03, where only a few candidates would have the potential to give Rep. Chip Pickering (R) a run for his money. Whether the DCCC can recruit well enough to take advantage of one of those candidates while they're still popular remains to be seen. [REID WILSON]
He's not happy.
"I think there was some skullduggery in Washington, that was going on, which I don't approve of. And I frankly think that's a shortcoming of the Democratic Party."
The Republican National Committee has winnowed its '08 convention site to, ah, 31 cities -- those who requested information from the party about what it takes to bid.
Today, the party will tell each city what a successful convention bid will entail.
Cities that received 2008 request for proposals are: Anaheim, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Memphis, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis, and Tampa. (Cities not on the list can still contact the RNC.)
The site selection committee will meet with reps from each bid city in DC this winter and spring and decide on a list of finalists by the middle of the summer.
A decision on the site selection committee will be made by Feb. 1 of '07.
Finalists: party insiders say Tampa, Miami, Nashville, New York, and Anaheim have an inside edge.
BTW: watch for the RNC to announce its '08 convention dates in the new few weeks. DNC chair Howard Dean said his party will convene from 8/25 to 8/28 in '08.
The RNC's site selection critera is after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]
Hat tip to Matt Stoller for discovering a fascinating RedState comment from the ex-e-campaign manager of the RNC, Mike Turk.
He's answering a question posed by Mike Krempasky: why have Democrats leapt ahead of Republicans in their willingness to experiment with personal online fundraising technologies?
His answer seems to be (in part): his former boss, Ken Mehlman, would not tolerate much dissent from The Message or bear to relinquish control over any lever of political power.
Discussing the issue of congressional travel on "Meet the Press" a couple of Sundays ago, newly-minted Maj Leader John Boehner defended his lavish travels by observing that "these industry meetings occur in nice places." True enough, but it is not just industry that is holding its meetings in "nice places."
A week after the House GOP gathered for their retreat on the lovely, if chilly, banks of MD's Eastern Shore, the NRCC heads for warmer climes to hold their annual winter meeting this weekend.
Offering "accommodations of uncommon beauty and style," The Phoenician in, you guessed it, suburban Phoenix, AZ will play host to Leader Boehner, NRCC chair Tom Reynolds, Financial Services chair Mike Oxley (OH), Ways & Means chair-in-waiting Jim McCrery (LA) and NRCC chair aspirants, Rep's Phil English (PA) and Tom Cole (OK).
Also escaping Washington's winter weather will be those NRCC donors that have maxed out or will soon max out, according to NRCC spokesperson Carl Forti. The confab is less a fundraiser and more of a "thank you" to those PACs that have given their $15K to the cmte, says Forti. It will feature "discussions on current legislative, policy and political issues in a relaxed setting," per the NRCC website.
And Leader Boehner, who we are told will use campaign funds to cover the cost of the trip, will be happy to hear that this "relaxed setting" offers guests the chance to "indulge in the pure joy of golf on the manicured greens and lush fairways" of their "27-hole championship course."
If AZ is too far a haul, don't worry, there will be plenty of GOP members to rub shoulders with this weekend at the Club for Growth's own Winter Conference at the Fairmont Turnberry Isle Resort & Club in Aventura, FL. Located halfway between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami Beach, the Turnberry offers its own "spectacular views, upscale amenities and personalized service" in their "ultra-luxurious oversized rooms" amid "300 tropical acres." And, yes, "two 18-hole Robert Trent Jones Sr. designed" golf courses.
So what's the story here? Well, there is no story and that's sorta the point. One month after it seemed that reform was on the way and business was not going to be so usual anymore, members are doing what they have always done -- offering special interests special access in exchange for princely sums of money.
And, yes, Dems do it, too.
Howard Dean wants you (and donors) to know what he's done with all that money. In an "Annual Report" the DNC released this afternoon, Dean touts the success of "The Plan" -- showing up everywhere, strengthening state parties, focusing on core values, training leaders, cutting edge technology, etc.
As we've written, it's hard to conclude that Dean has not fulfilled his campaign promise. He was elected because state party chairs and activists who depend on state parties for their political (and professional) livelihoods believed that Dean would direct money and resources in their direction. The quo for the quid was supposed to be measurable progress in getting state party finances in order, registering new voters and starting aggressive and early coordinated campaigns.
Needless to say, these are not the metrics that Terry McAuliffe's donors were used to.
As an adviser to Dean has said, "Howard did not become DNC chair because he was beholden to fundraisers and he has not chaired the DNC as if were beholden to fundraisers."
But even Dean's admirers, including many who worked on his presidential campaign, cannot understand why the DNC spent so much money up front -- checks come in, checks go out. Why devote hundreds of thousands of dollars staffing up in Idaho when the money could be stored for a better coordinated campaign in, say, Michigan or Ohio. Or transfered to the DCCC for an IE? Or why did the DNC end the year with barely $5M in the bank -- a scary figure even to some DNC insiders?
The very question gets at the culture clash. Dean's close advisers say that if Dean didn't throw everything he had into his program in an off-year, the establishment would never permit him to spend that much money in an election year. The Democrats' future depends on it, they say.
Charlie Cook explains why this presidential 6th year is like every other presidential sixth year -- and yet -- even more unlike every other presidential sixth year -- and what that means for the midterms.
Clearly, with just one open Republican Senate seat and just five truly vulnerable GOP Senate seats -- not to mention several highly vulnerable Democratic Senate seats, few Republican open seats and few incumbents seriously challenged in vulnerable GOP districts -- the potential for losses of the magnitude of many previous six-year elections is negligible.
Well, it wasn't meant as a V's Day gift, but Paul "Rock On" Hackett's decision to quit OH SEN (announced via the NYT) still gives Dems a warm, fuzzy glow.
Senate Dems "forced" him to make this "disappointing" decision, the Iraq vet said, equating the Reid/Schumer "betrayal" with the Bush admin's "mismanaged" war. Not as colorful as the names he called Pres. Bush in '05, but close. (BTW: The DSCC denies that it asked donors to eschew Hackett.)
Three days before OH's 2/16 filing deadline, Dem Eric Fingerhut was mushy by comparison in saying he'd quit the GOV primary. Fingerhut didn't blame party elders, but rather his own fundraising. (Money was Hackett's headache as well. Both were outraised 10-to-1 by fellow Dems).
Will Dems' mistreatment of Hackett alienate vets, antiwar activists and lefty bloggers this fall?
Perhaps.
But some pro-Hackett bloggers are already urging fellow liberals to MoveOn.now and, a la Dean/Kerry, keep their eyes on the prizes. Those become more attainable if they aren't draining their warchests this spring.
For his part, Hackett says he's done with politics, unwilling to battle the powers that run his party. So, was Jean Schmidt wrong? Do some Marines "cut and run" after all?
From The "Oops" Dept:
As we noted when we ran our Futures Market column for KS, it was the first time a member of our class of '03 had actually been indicted for a crime. That distinction fell upon '03 KS nominee Adam Taff (R), who pleaded guilty in late November for taking $300K in campaign funds and using the cash to put a down payment on a new house. The Kansas City Star reports that today, Taff was sentenced to 15 months in prison and fined $50K.
Well, maybe he'll be back in time for our '08 rising stars list. Then again, maybe not.
The folks at Phil Angelides's CA GOV campaign are trying to turn VP Cheney's buck shot flap into campaign cash -- kinda creatively.
Here's an e-mail the campaign send out to supporters:
"Whether Vice President Dick Cheney is out hunting with his friends or spending a quiet evening with Lynne in an undisclosed location, we know he is thinking of others this Valentine's Day."
"In fact, guess who is the new object of Cheney's affection? Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger! This Valentine's Day, Vice President Cheney has given Governor Schwarzenegger the best gift he could find - Steve Schmidt!"
"Steve Schmidt used to be Cheney's adviser. But with fear growing about Schwarzenegger's ability to stay in the Governor's office, Cheney was willing to make a sacrifice -- a big one. Cheney's former right-hand man, Steve Schmidt, is becoming Schwarzenegger's new Campaign Manager!"
"Help us send a warm California Valentine's Day welcome to Steve Schimdt - make a contribution to Phil Angelides in Steve's name."
The most remarkable event about The Council For National Policy, which wrapped up this weekend: the scramble by Washington-area members to get from sunny Las Vegas, NV to their snowed-in homes back east.
There were no presidential candidates in attendance; no Jack Abramoff sightings, either. Very few candidates seeking money. Plenty of donors, though. At least four discussions of defense policy. Rachel Campos-Duffy of Real World fame, was the only celebrity seen by our spy. Heck -- not even Paul Weyrich -- a CNP stalwart-- showed up. We saw him on Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in DC.
This is conservative conference season, by the way; the Club for Growth's annual winter meeting takes place this weekend at the Fairmont Turnberry Isle Resort and Club in Aventura, FL. Guests include curvemeister Arthur Laffer, Rep. Mike Pence and Sen. Jim DeMint.
Ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) believes a picture is worth thousands of dollars. Despite a lackluster 4thQ fundraising, he raked in over $80K in 2 weeks after liberal blogs posted a photo of Pres. Bush hugging Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX 28) at the SOTU.
Pre-hug, Rodriguez had support from his former colleagues: 10 members, including Rep. John Murtha, had donated. But the infusion of money from the 'Net invigorated the campaign.
In past Dem primaries, candidates who run afoul of the party's traditional interest groups have suffered (see Martinez v. Solis in '00). Both the AFL-CIO and Change to Win Coalition are working to dethrone Cuellar, who has received little money from labor. Cuellar has the advantage of incumbency and claims his centrist voting record fits a district that voted 53% for Bush. This proxy battle pits the party's liberal, activist wing against the centrist pragmatists. If the left wins this fight, activists will be emboldened in challenging other centrist incumbents -- a worrisome prospect for Dems as they try to win back the House. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Still a mystery: why White House domestic policy czar Claude Allen abruptly resigned last week, just days after the State of the Union?
Republicans who know Allen believe the explanation cited by the White House and by Allen -- that he wanted to spend more time with his family -- rang true. But, they say, that desire applies to virtually every member of the president's senior staff.
Another intruiging possiblility is that Allen resigned to protest the administration's failure to protest new Air Force regulations governing the conduct of chaplains.
The Washington Times's Julia Duin has covered the story for months, watching as the service struggled to rewrite guidelines after Jewish and Muslim chaplains protested about aggressive evangelicals -- and as evangelicals protested that they were not allowed to exercise their faith, which requires them to minister in Jesus's name.
The new rules, promulgated on 2/9, were not enthusiastically endorsed by moral conservative interest groups in DC -- Duin calls them "a step forward" -- and it's still not clear whether an Air Force chaplain can affirmatively cite the authority and singularity of Christ when praying on behalf of an ecumenical audience.
Duin's suggestion is that Allen resigned to protest the administration's failure to pressure Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld to explictly grant chaplains the right to exercize their religion without encumberance or interference.
Allen would have protested that the new regulations stopped short of allowing evangelicals to be evangelicals.
The Times reports that "a military source" said Allen "resigned to protest the White House's refusal to lean on the Petagon about the issue."
We were not able to get in touch with Allen to ask about the story.
Not really. It was still light out....
6:50 ET: VP Cheney shoots pal.
U.S. Naval Observatory
Astronomical Applications Department
The following information is provided for Corpus Christi, Nueces County, Texas (longitude W97.4, latitude N27.8):
Saturday
11 February 2006 Central Standard Time
SUN
Begin civil twilight 6:46 a.m.
Sunrise 7:10 a.m.
Sun transit 12:44 p.m.
Sunset 6:18 p.m.
End civil twilight 6:42 p.m.
National Journal's Peter Stone reports that prosecutors have issued a subpoena for documents relating to the U.S. Family Network, a sign that the influence-peddling probe into the activities of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff continues to expand.
(Courtesy of the Wall Street Journal...)
Jon Stewart: "I'm joined now by our own vice-presidential firearms mishap analyst, Rob Corddry. Rob, obviously a very unfortunate situation. How is the vice president handling it?
Rob Corddry: "Jon, tonight the vice president is standing by his decision to shoot Harry Wittington. According to the best intelligence available, there were quail hidden in the brush. Everyone believed at the time there were quail in the brush.
"And while the quail turned out to be a 78-year-old man, even knowing that today, Mr. Cheney insists he still would have shot Mr. Whittington in the face. He believes the world is a better place for his spreading buckshot throughout the entire region of Mr. Whittington's face."
Jon Stewart: "But why, Rob? If he had known Mr. Whittington was not a bird, why would he still have shot him?"
Rob Corddry: "Jon, in a post-9-11 world, the American people expect their leaders to be decisive. To not have shot his friend in the face would have sent a message to the quail that America is weak..."
"White House blames victim" (Knight Ridder)
"I'm a little concerned that Dick Cheney is going to walk in" -- FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R), placing a "bright orange sticker" on his chest (AP).
Perhaps we forgot this was the Democratic Party... inside of which the tastiest milk can curdle.
Paul Hackett won't run for Senate and he won't run for the House and he's angry at his party and other vet candidates are angry at the party, too.
Some updates:
1. The USSS contacted local law enforcement officials on Saturday night; on Sunday morning, they interviewed Cheney and concluded that the shooting was accidental. Case closed. No word on why they did not respond Saturday night.
2. Cheney lacked the requisite stamp to hunt upland game bird; he expects to be fined $7 by Texas officials. (See the VP's office release below.) BTW: how weird is that the FIRST release by the VP's office is a terse bureaucratic acknowledgement of a game warning, and not a statement of sympathy for the victim? Or maybe we just don't get the VP....
3. It's still unclear why it took three hours for senior WH officials to be notified about the basic narrative. And why WH press sec. Scott McClellan was not fully informed until 6:00 am Sunday.
Great news for Dems in OH; if Paul Hackett sticks to his plan, the party has killed two problems with one deft withdrawal.
Vet Hackett (D) opts to run against Rep. Jean Schmidt (R), the freshman he nearly beat -- and Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) can concentrate on building a case against Sen. Mike DeWine.
We're told that Hackett plans an official announcement tomorrow, unless he changes his mind.
Make no mistake: Hackett's chances of defeating Schmidt are at least fifty-fifty, and Dems have credibly expanded the field of competitive races by one. (Can Dems clear the primary in OH-2?) Hackett's re-re-recruitement is the second major success for the DCCC in recent days: they just recruited ex-Rep. Ken Lucas to challenge Rep. Geoff Davis in KY-4.
AS Chris Cillizza notes, the filing deadline is Thursday, 4 p.m.
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
Two of our stars, both of whom got unanimous praise inside their parties, are on a collision course over the AG's office. The Dem House Min Leader made some big strides in his caucus in '04, while the GOP candidate is already being touted as a possible Gov candidate of the future. Dems also have two strong mayors, both of whom are seen as future candidates, while the GOP seems to have the stronger bench in the legislature. [REID WILSON]
John Spencer, the GOPer challenging Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in New York, is previewing a tough new ad that takes Clinton to task for "opposing the program" that allegedly prevented a devastating terrorist attack on the Brooklyn Bridge in '03.
The thirty-second spot was produced by McLaughlin and Associates.
By releasing the ad on Spencer's website, the campaign hopes to generate free publicity for it and perhaps raise enough money to expand the size of projected buy. Campaign sources say they expect the ad to run on television in New York next week.
The narrator of the Spencer ad states that "In 2003, US citizen Iyman Faris plotted with Al Qaeda to destroy the Brooklyn Bridge. The plot was coordinated with Osama Bin Laden. The plot was coordinated with Osama Bin Laden. The attack was stopped by National Security Agency wiretaps And the attack was stopped only when National Security Agency wiretaps exposed it. Senator Clinton opposes the program that stopped the attack on the Brooklyn Bridge But Senator Clinton opposes the program that prevented the attack on the Brooklyn Bridge. She'd rather leave us vulnerable."
Spencer adds at the end: "That's wrong. I'm John Spencer. I'm running for Senate because I won't play politics with our security. "
It's not clear that Faris was directly connected to Bin Laden, but investigators say he worked for Al Qaeda, generally, in plotting to blow up the bridge. NSA wiretaps helped the FBI unravel the plot, according to the New York Times story that revealed the program.
It's also not clear that Clinton opposes the NSA program per se, although she certainly has expressed reservations about the legal reasoning the Bush administration has used to justify it. She's against "spying on Americans" -- that is, unlawful spying on Americans without FISA warrants.
And the ad -- to put it mildly -- takes liberties -- by saying Clinton would "rather leave us vulnerable." [MARC AMBINDER]
In an extraordinary White House press briefing, it seems to us thatScott McClellan did everything but say outright that Vice President's office bungled the release of information about the Texas hunting accident, and that he would have preferred the White House notified the press much earlier.
To the astonishment of the White House press corps, McClellan implied that he was first informed about the incident late Saturday night...but it took a while before he knew that Cheney was not himself injured...and that he was informed Sunday morning that Cheney was the shooter.
McClellan said that Cheney himself asked the ranch owner, Katherine Armstrong, to call the local paper and inform them.
And he also, repeatedly, shifted responsibility for the chain of events onto the vice president and his staff.
Several times, McClellan said a variation of this line: "The vice president felt that Ms. Armstrong was the right persont to put the person out." A CNN correspondent pointed out that Armstrong said that the VP's staff did not know that she was going to talk to the press. The contradiction was left unresolved.
McClellan did not know about a report that the Secret Service prevented a deputy sheriff from interviewing Cheney.
Oft-repeated lines:
"If you got specifics about this, you've got to direct them to the vice president's office."
"I'm not going to get into discussions about specific suggestions I've made."
Asked and answered, maybe, but aren't all shootings in Texas -- even universally acknowledged accidental shootings -- investigated by law enforcement?
Here's an interesting analysis of hunting accidents in Texas in '05.
People shootings are rare; usually only several dozen hunters are injured each year in accidents. (Some may take exception to our use of the adjective "only.") Self-policing, hunter orange education and tigher laws have driven the accidental death rate way down -- only two hunters were killed in '05.
Here are Texas guidelines for hunting in grasslands. We're not sure if the same rules apply to hunting on private property, though.
We've never really done this before, but we'd cordially invite those of you who love On Call to think about subscribing to The Hotline itself. What you get here is a fraction of what our subscribers get. (Hotline TV, Wake Up Call!, Last Call!, TGI Hotline, special features, and much more.)
Our subscribers get access to instantaneous updates of our data, too. Such as:
Presidential hopefuls: who's raising what; what PACs are flush; how much money is transferable to a presidential exploratory account?
TV Tracking: every time George Allen appears on Fox News, we're jotting it down.
WH '08 travels: why does Evan Bayh spend so much time outside IN? We'll tell you.
FEC reports for Senate candidates, GOV candidates, House freshman, House incumbents, vulnerable members and much more.
Not when Howard Dean claimed to be a metrosexual, nor when
AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) tells NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D): "If this keeps up, we're going to have a political version of Brokeback Mountain up here."
Here are the full CPAC straw poll results. Jumping out from the pack is Sen. John McCain, who did not attend. Two factors to consider. One -- the wording of the question asked delegates to select who they think "will be the next Republican nominee" -- a question which asks them to relegate their personal preferences to their political forecasting skills. Second: there were lots of young 'uns there -- even more than we've seen at CPACs past.
George Allen: 22%
John McCain: 20%
Rudy Giuliani: 12%
Condoleezza Rice: 10%
Bill Frist: 6%
Tom Tancredo: 5%
Mitt Romney: 5%
Newt Gingrich: 5%
Rick Santorum: 3%
George Pataki: 3%
Undecided: 4%
Team Allen is quite pleased.
And we don't think Team McCain is unhappy, even with the caveats.
That's because it's evidence in support of their theory of Hegelian Political Determinism, 2008. (Think dialectically: McCain -- he can't win. But history progreses. The base is moving towards him. He's the only one who can beat Hillary. That moves the party toward him. He becomes the inevitable frontrunner. Etc. etc.)
According to a report by Human Events, George Allen narrowly won the CPAC straw poll. But the surprise was John McCain's strong showing among this very conservative group. McCain finished second with 20%. No other GOPer made it out of single digits.
Some unvarnished observations of Mark Warner's 32-minute speech to NH Dems' 100 Club Dinner:
* Biggest post-speech compliments from crowd: "Personable" and "clearly loved being governor."
* Biggest post-speech complaints from crowd: "Not enough partisan red meat," too "soft on Bush" and "not enough substance on foreign policy."
* Number of applause lines: 37 (12 came during his "I'm a Democrat because ... " wrap-up pitch).
* Only line that prompted a standing-o: "I'm a Democrat because we believe that waging a war on povery does not mean you wage a war on the poor."
* A (rough) breakdown of time he spent on each topic:
Acknowledgements of local officials etc: 3 mins
Bio: 4 mins
GOP scandals/anti-Washington: 2 mins
Natl security: 4 mins
Katrina: 3 mins
VA gov record: 6 mins
Economic/jobs: 2 min
NASCAR: 1 min
Energy independence: 1 min
Deficit/Social Security/Medicaid: 2 mins
Dems: 4 mins
Hillary Clinton: 0 mins
[JOHN MERCURIO]
During his first trip to NH since leaving the VA gov's office, Mark Warner has found a new way to introduce himself.
"My name is Mark Warner. And I'm unemployed," he quipped this afternoon at Stonyfield Farm, his first stop during a daylong visit to NH that will also include private meetings with Gov. John Lynch (D) George Bruno, the state's '92 Clinton/Gore co-chair; and ex-Rep. Dick Swett (D).
Actually, he explains, "until 30 days ago, I was a state government employee in Virginia. I was the governor."
Here are a few highlights from Warner's visit to Stonyfield (we'll post more following his keynote speech to the sold-out crowd of NH Dems at tonight's 100 Club Dinner):
The SD State House has passed a bill that would outlaw nearly all abortions in the state. The AP reports that supporters rejected proposed amendments that would have made exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the mother, but did include a provision allowing abortions if the danger to the mother included risk of death. The measure, which passed 47-22, is now on its way to the State Sen, where GOPers outnumber Dems 25-10. Supporters say they hope the bill will be challenged and will make it to SCOTUS, setting up pro-choicers’ worst fears: A re-ruling on Roe involving Sam Alito and John Roberts.
So Jim VandeHei notes at end of story on Abramoff today that the Washingtonian editor who got the Abramoff emails, Kim Eisler, is married to Judy Sarasohn, who covers lobbying for the Post.
In other words, we have a Post reporter who is married to an ex-DeLay staffer writing about a former lobbyist closely tied to DeLay emailing another reporter who is married to a Post reporter who covers lobbying.
The Progress for America Voter Fund has joined the political fight over the Iraq war, broadcasting provocative television ads in MN this week and preparing to set up state-based advocacy affiliates premised on changing public opinion about Iraq before the '06 midterms.
The conservative group, which spent $14M to broadcast "Ashley's Ad" at the height of the '04 campaign, has purchased several hundred thousand dollars worth of ads in MN.
The 60 sec. spots feature war vets saying the US presence in Iraq is essential to winning the war on terror. One is Lt. Col. Bob Stephenson, an reservist who spent five months in Iraq. From the ad: "You'd never know it from the news reports, but our enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida, the same terrorists who killed 3,000 Americans on 9-11, the same terrorists from the first World Trade Center bombing, the USS Cole, Madrid, London and many more."
The narrative tracks Pres. Bush's and the administration's contention that the war against terror and the war in Iraq are connected. Pres. Bush spoke in MN earlier this week and a state-based adjunct of the PFA campaign bracketed his visit with events and e-mails to activists.
The ad will air through next Wednesday at 1,000 GRPs. Ad trackers in MN say that PFA is spending more than 400K in the Minneapolis-St. Paul market alone, as well as more than 100K in Duluth. PFA has set up a website to promote the ads' message nationally.
In Jan, PFA put together Minnesota Families United For Our Troops And Their Mission. Depending on the success of the MN campaign, PFA might expand the ads, websites and events to other states.
Terry Holt's decision to help Wal-Mart Watch do its thang is not surprising to veteran watchers of Wal-Mart politics: it is by no means clear that the divisions among Democrats over Wal-Mart are more pronounced than the divisions among Republicans.
But one Holt connection has so far gone unmentioned, and while we know Holt will say with conviction (and we believe it) that he is a private man who believes in the cause -- Holt is very close to the incoming majority leader of the House, Rep. John Boehner (R-OH).
In the casual, damn-by-association giggle-gaggle of Washington, one could say that the Wal-Mart critics have just hired a lobbyist who is very sympatico with the majority leader.
But, alas, the story, whatever it is, falls apart, as we hear Holt's recruitment was in the works long before there was a majority leader's race.
"Terry's relationship with the new leadership team will strengthen our outreach to Congress, small business owners, manufacturers, and elected Republicans at all levels," says Nu Wexler, a Wal-Mart Watch spokesperson.
Wexler, by the way, is the former exec. dir. of the South Carolina Democratic Party.
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
One source, using an expression that we loved, told us that most of the delegation are only leaving DC "feet-first." There are plenty of talented stars here, and GOPers on our list may find themselves an opportunity when Reps. Mike Rogers (R) and Candice Miller (R) move up, a prospect that's not so much an "if" but a "when." Dems are waiting for Reps. Sander Levin (D) and John Conyers (D) to retire, or they're moving back to populous Oakland Co., a nearly essential base to win a statewide Dem primary. At least one Dem was so antsy that he actually filed for Conyers' seat when it was unclear if Conyers would run again, only to drop out when the Rep. himself filed. [REID WILSON]
Ex-Howard Dean aide Kate O'Connor, who's signed up to help Richard Tarrant (R) win a VT Senate seat, answers our questions:
Why are you returning to politics?
When the presidential campaign ended in 2004 I vowed that I would never work on a campaign again. However, after sleeping and eating healthy food for a year and a half I came back down to earth. That's when I realized I had no practical skills so politics was the only option I had!
Why work for a Republican?
I'm working for the person who I believe will best represent Vermonters in the Senate. I'll always be a Democrat, but at the same time I think it's important to put our country before party politics.
The last time you were in DC, you attended Howard Dean's installation as DNC chair. Have you spoken with Dr. Dean recently? What do you make of his tenure as chair?
Yes. Howard and I stay in touch. I think he's doing a great job as chair of the DNC. Would you have expected any other answer from me!
Do you regret kissing Joe Trippi?
I didn't kiss Joe. HE kissed me!!!
Do you think Howard Dean will run for president in '08?
Interesting question. You can't be party chair and run for president at the same time, so I don't think so.
Do you think Al Gore will run?
I don't know if he'll run, but I do think he's got some good ideas that are well worth listening to.
Have you decided what to do with all your Dean campaign video footage?
In addition to video I have pictures (even a couple of you!), notes and journals. They tell a pretty interesting story about a presidential campaign that started with absolutely nothing. I've thought more than once about putting something together. Not only would it would make good reading, but I think some people could learn a lot from it.
Last night, we noted Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott's meeting with members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
Two sources familiar with the meeting told us that Rep. Joe Baca of CA used the phrase "poverty pimps" to describe Wal-Mart executives who directed donations to Latino groups. A similar account appeared in The Hill newspaper.
Today, Lee Culpepper, a Wal-Mart executive who attended the meeting, said that he and several others did not hear Rep. Baca say the phrase "poverty pimps."
Tonight, Linda Macias, Rep. Baca's chief of staff, said her boss did not use the phrase.
We therefore retract our report and regret the error.
Sen. George Allen (R-VA), in a speech to conservative activists tonight, will urge Congress to pass its budget on time and to delay members' annual paychecks if they dither -- one part of what Allen bills as a "three-point plan" to "restore fiscal discipline."
Allen introduced the paycheck measure in the Senate late today. He also supports giving the president line-item veto authority and wants Congress to pass balanced budget amendment to the constitution.
According to Allen's prepared remarks, he calls it "absurd" that "full-time legislators can't get their job done on-time by October 1 -- then several months later -- all kinds of unknown, unchecked spending occurs."
Allen will say that if Congress fails to pass approrpiations bills by the start of the new fiscal year, "paycheck will be withheld until you complete your job, period."
The folksy threat to punish Congress for fiscal profligacy comes as Allen carefully tries to balance his Senate re-election campaign with presidential ambitions.
Two Democrats, including a former Secretary of the Navy to Pres. Ronald Reagan, will mount expensive campaigns to defeat him in Virginia. Allen advisers say the unexpectedly competitive race at home will prevent him from visitng early primary states as much as other potential candidates, like Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA).
McCain, long a warrior against excessive spending, today introduced a measure to hold accountable lawmakers who add pet projects to massive appropriations bills.
Allen's plan was not concieved to counterpoint McCain's legislative roll-out, but the two plans will compete for media coverage.
Because Allen can't travel too often, he is more likely to attempt attention-grabbing gambits like this one, hoping to generate buzz among conservatives and party donors.
Allen will introduce his plan at the Conservative Political Action Confernence, an annual gathering for conservatives. Hundreds of the most conservative College Republicans in the country attend CPAC, along with many of the conservative coalition's leading lights.
If Allen decides to run for president, he will most likely campaign for tax reform, for fiscal discipline and for small-government conservatism. [MARC AMBINDER]
More rising GOP stars are on their way to California to help try to re-elect Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (D-CA).
Bush aide Steve Schmidt will manage Schwarzenneger's campaign; strategist Matthew Dowd will handle polling; Katie Levinson, formerly the director of television at both the RNC and the White House, will serve as communications director and Matt McDonald, who ran rapid response operations at the White House, will do the same for the campaign.
Now, Sarah Simmons, a top aide to DCoS Karl Rove, is headed to Sacramento. She'll work with Dowd.
An earlier version of this post incorrectly and inexplicably said that Matt Jessee, an associate of Jack Oliver, is also joining the team. Jessee will do no such thing.
A new exclusive by Murray Waas.
Before he keynotes the 100 Club dinner for the NH Dem Party on Friday night, ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) will visit with local Dems at Stonyfield Farm tomorrow at 1:30 p.m. Reporters are, of course, cordially invited to attend the event in Londonderry, NH.
We hear... Kevin Madden, the comm. dir. for Rep. Tom DeLay, has been asked by new majority leader John Boehner to fulfill a similar function.
He'll be the press secretary, overseeing development and execution of media strategy.
Kevin Smith will remain as comm dir.
We hear that ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani spoke to an audience of more than 20,000 yesterday in Sacramento, CA.
He was once again a featured speaker at a Zig Ziglar Get Motivated seminar.
Claude Allen, President Bush's principal domestic policy advisor, has resigned. A White House spokesman told the Chicago Tribune that Allen wanted to spend more time with his family.
Republicans who know Allen are uncertain why he stepped down so suddenly. Late last week, he was in good spirits as he briefed allies and surrogates about the President's State of the Union message. On Tuesday, he attended a conference in PA on the president's faith based initiative.
Allen enjoys a warm relationship with moral conservative groups in Washington. As a senior political appointee at the Department of Health and Human services, he was the administration's point person on abstinence initiatives.
Allen began his political career in North Carolina, working for Sen. Jesse Helms. In '03, Pres. Bush nominated Allen to be a federal appeals judge, but Democrats blocked a final vote.
On the same day a poll showed her in a statistical dead heat with AG Patricia Madrid (D), Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM 01) called for hearings into Pres. Bush's NSA eavesdropping. Wilson has always tried to showcase an independent streak in her swing district: In '03 she joined Dems in questioning the Medicare drug plan, but later voted for it. Her decision to question Bush's proposal suggests GOPers running in Kerry-leaning districts feel the eavesdropping issue could be politically precarious.
Madrid is a tough opponent and one of the DCCC's top recruits. In previous cycles, the party failed to clear the field, and eventual nominees were bruised from internal divisions. This year Madrid is in sound shape: She led most Dem challengers in fundraising, and expects additional money from EMILY's List in future months. Popular Gov. Bill Richardson, up for re-election, could boost Dem turnout. Wilson always faces tough races, but she's increased her margin of victory with each one. Will the nat'l climate change that trend in Wilson's blue-tinged district this fall? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Kate O'Connor, a longtime aide to Howard Dean and a top adviser on his '04 presidential campaign, has signed up to work for GOP Senate candidate Richard Tarrant, who is challenging Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) in Vermont.
Our favorite line, from a must-read article in the Bennington Banner: "On Dean's national campaign, O'Connor said she experienced a 'kill or be killed' political attitude that she found counterproductive. She liked Dean's less combative, more negotiable approach to government, which she feels accomplished more."
O'Connor goes on to describe how she felt like the Beatles when she and Dean would be spotted by fans, "with people fainting and screaming."
So, who exactly was "screaming?" Dean or the fans? [JOHN MERCURIO]
If we're reading this op-ed by Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott correctly, the company will "comply" with the new MD law requiring it to spend more on health insurance for its employees.
It will try to contain costs by unspecified "efficiencies." Scott doesn't say whether the company will cut jobs. Nor does he say that the company won't close specific stores. Nor does he address any legal action against the law the company might plan. (An industry association officially challenged the law on Tuesday.)
There's an evacuation scare on the Hill now. Capitol Police are telling reporters on the scene that a sensor detected what appeared to be a nerve agent in the attic of a Russell Senate Office Building.
About 200 Hill staffers and members of Congress are being kept in a parking garage. They're more wary than nervous, at this point.
We're monitoring the situation by listening to the Capitol Police and DC Metro Fire Dept. frequencies on a scanner. The emergency workers seem to believe that the threat is not real but they're talking extra precautions to make sure.
But as of tonight, Sen. Barack Obama does.
The other Dem. Sen. to win a Grammy for a spoken word album: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Newsweek's Allan Sloan has discovered a line item in President Bush's budget that would establish $700B worth of individual accounts beginning in 2010.
Discuss...
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
With 11 Dems in Congress and 2 in the Sen, there's not much opportunity for anyone to move up these days. GOPers seem focused on the Gov race in '06, while Dems with a future seem determined to make it to Middlesex Co's DA office, a stepping stone to just about any office the holder has in mind. Both parties have the talent and the bench, but the Dems on our list are much more likely to crop up in DC in the future, thanks to the state's bluish tint. [REID WILSON]
The annual Conservative Political Action Conference kicks off this Thursday at the Omni Shoreham in DC. (Featured guests include VP Cheney, Amb. Bolton, Sens. Allen and Frist, Rep. Tancredo, ex-Rep. Gingrich, and many more.)
Liberals have yet to come up with a CPAC-like conference, and they can't hold a koombayah candle to CPAC's history -- Ronald Reagan credits the American Conservative Union, which founded CPAC, with seeding his own revolution. Cheney has attended CPAC all but one of the years since he became VP. Karl Rove spoke last year.
The marquee speeches are what garner media attention, but the interesting stuff is elsewhere: the sponsored booths, the behind-the-scenes debates, the panels.
Last year, for example, the Family Research Council balked at joining a break-out session about same-sex marriage because a Log Cabin Republican was a panelist. (This year -- there are no proponents of gay marriage at the conference, even though many of CPAC's libertarians are privately sympathetic.)
This year, four opening panels discuss -- yes -- immigration. Panelists including critics will debate the Bush eavesdropping expansion and civil liberties. The Draft Condi movement will try to win a straw poll. A "Draft Mike Pence Movement" plans an organizational meeting on Saturday night. New Maj. Leader John Boehner plans a surprise appearance. The pro-pot legalization folks will have a booth, as they always do.
CPAC is open about its purpose and its funding. Major donors include the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, the DCI Group, Koch Industries, the Consumer Electronics Federation and the NRA.
Putting it together is also tiring on its employees. The American Conservative Union has cycled through three communications directors in the space of the year. The job's most recent occupant stepped down last week. [MARC AMBINDER]
When Alabama Gov. Bob Riley (R) held a press conerence yesterday to announce his support for unplugging the electronic gambling machines at the state's 3 dog tracks, Dems predicatably dissmissed it as mere election-year politicking.
But one Dem, Senate President Pro Tempore Lowell Barron, went further, per the Birmingham News. Barron recalled that Jack Abramoff had sought to eliminate competition for the Choctaws -- located in neighboring Mississippi -- and offered that he hoped "we don't have any games like that being played in Alabama."
Oh, and Barron also pointed out that Riley happens to have some ties to Abramoff and his ex-partner Michael Scanlon.
Riley's camp said it was "ludicrous" to tie their slots opposition to any gambling interests.
As if Alabama politics weren't fun enough, (see Moore, Roy) it now looks like Dems will play the Abramoff card in the GOV race.
Of course they may have a tough time with this message if they nominate ex-Gov. Don Siegelman (D).
We hear that Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott today plans to meet with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus on the Hill.
Scott later plans to greet members of his DC-based PR war room.
Alan Murray in the WSJ -- no softie when it comes to business and corporate responsibility -- met with Scott yesterday and came away impressed. "I came away convinced there's more going on here than just public relations," he writes today.
More from Murray's column -- a positive clip for Wal-Mart that's sure to make Paul Blank roll his eyes -- after the jump.
This cycle it won't be just free Viagra and software offers filling your Inbox -- but also maybe your representative in Congress.
According to consultants and campaign technology experts we talked to, campaigns are expected to double or even triple their voter e-mail list usage in '06 compared to two years ago.
Here's how they do it: Firms specializing in voter e-mail lists, such as Advocacy Inc. (D), match commercially available e-mail addresses to existing voter data. Then the firms "re-opt" recipients, or ask them if it's okay to send political e-mail, according Advocacy Inc. pres. Roger Alan Stone. Stone said his firm sold e-mail lists to just under 100 campaigns in '04, but he expects business to double or triple for '06.
The Kaine for Governor Campaign already took advantage of the technology this past fall, sending out a couple messages a week to both subscribed supporters and lists purchased from Advocacy, Inc. [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]
MS GOV Haley Barbour offered a Shermanesque (but don't call it that in MS) statement in response to an '08 question last night in Jackson.
Barbour said he'd "been flattered by the people who have encouraged" him to consider a bid, but that there was no way that he could fulfill his duties as governor in post-Katrina MS and run for the WH.
More from the Clarion-Ledger
Attention GOP Senators: get your earmark requests ready.
Ex-LG Bill Scranton (R) dropped out of the race for Pennsylvania Governor just days before the state GOP committee was set to endorse his primary opponent, ex-Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann.
Scranton said he planned to stay in the race until the GOP primary, asking the state committee not to endorse anyone this weekend instead to leave it up to voters. Scranton's campaign was in a downward spiral -- culminating when his manager James Seif called Swann "The rich white guy in the campaign" on a local public access TV show. Though Scranton fired Seif almost immediately after the incident, his campaign never fully recovered in the following weeks.
Scranton statement: "Against the backdrop of these deeply held convictions and the growing realization that Pennsylvania's Republican establishment is opposed to my call for an open primary, I have determined that my chances of success are minimal in mounting a grassroots campaign effort ... Our campaign is strong, but not strong enough to defeat a candidate who has received the near unanimous backing of state and national party leaders."
Swann statement: "Bill Scranton made a difficult decision today…I look forward to working with Bill and his supporters ... Bill's competition for this nomination has contributed a great deal to the debate about making the Commonwealth a better place for all Pennsylvanians...."
Scranton's decision makes this weekend's PA GOP caucus meeting nothing more than ceremonious (the 3rd GOP candidate, conservative activist Jim Panyard, is not seeking the nomination).
The remaining question on every PA politicos mind is whether Swann can raise the moolah -- and we're talking NFL 6-year contract size money. He raised more than $1.5M in '05, but that pales in comparison to Gov. Ed Rendell (D)'s $12 million CoH. Chances are better now that the PA GOPers can send their money to one candidate so early in the campaign, but how far can Swann reach into those deep suburban Philadelphia pockets? [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]
A potential Democratic presidential candidate, IA Gov. Tom Vilsack has earned the temporary enmity of one of the nation's most powerful labor unions because they believe that rules he sanctioned appeared to weaken collective bargaining rights of child care providers -- and may have favored another a rival union seeking to organize those same workers.
The Service Employees International Union, which claims about 3,000 active members in Iowa, ran a radio ad last week calling Vilsack's actions "undemocratic."
In Jan., thousands of child care providers formally signaled their preference to join a union -- what unions term a "card check." That's after Vilsack signed an executive order requiring the state to bargain with the providers. Both SEIU and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal employees campaigned for the cards of workers and each turned in thousands.
Vilsack spelled out the procedure an independent mediator will use to decide which union turned in the most cards. Vilsack also signed an executive order splitting the pool of workers in two -- one pool representing registered workers like licensed day care providers and the others representing those who are not registered but eligible for state subsidies.
SEIU believes that decision will hurt the workers' ability to bargain collectively, as two separate unions would have less clout than one bigger union. [MARC AMBINDER]
Sunday's Super Bowl featured many memorable ads. In the Jackson, MS media market, viewers saw a 30-second spot titled "Give Me the Ball" for state Rep. Chuck Espy, running against Rep. Bennie Thompson in the MS 02 Dem primary. The ad buy burned up a lot of his early warchest, but gives him early visibility.
The Espy name looms large in the MS Delta. His uncle, Mike Espy, held the seat before resigning to serve as Clinton's Ag Sec. Thompson then defeated Chuck's father in a close primary. The '06 version of the Espy-Thompson battle will be fought on generational, geographic and racial grounds. Espy, 30, is trying to win the support of white GOP voters who can cross over to vote in the Dem primary. He's also arguing that Thompson, 58, who hails from the Jackson area, has ignored the needs of the MS Delta. This could mirror aspects of the Hilliard-Davis, McKinney-Majette primaries in '02, where the newcomers successfully challenged the old guard black leadership. Espy needs to raise more money to mount a strong challenge. But with his high name ID, this primary could be closely contested. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Did those of you watching the funeral of Coretta Scott King catch Sen. Ted Kennedy's eulogy?
We hope Shrummy was watching because he would've found the Liberal Lion's last sentence very familiar.
Yup, Kennedy reprised Shrum's famous "Dream Shall Never Die" speech, made famous at the '80 Dem Convention:
"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
So why was Sen. John McCain so outraged?
It is admittedly hard to tell from Sen. Barack Obama's first letter, which seems polite.
In response to Obama's overtures about working with McCain, McCain asked Obama to join him at a meeting last Wed. with the chair and ranking member of the Senate Govt Affairs Cmte, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT).
Obama aide Robert Gibbs said Obama sought assurances in the meeting that ethics legislation would not bypass the cmte process.
McCain left the meeting impressed that Obama, the Dem' party's designee to lead reform efforts, was open to the idea of a bipartisan task force charged with recommending reforms to the committee by the end of 2/06.
A McCain adviser said McCain "received private assurances" from Obama that he would consider supporting a task force. Gibbs denies Obama ever intended to convey anything beyond his desire for legislation to be hashed out in cmte, and not through a task force that would circumvent the cmte process, as had been suggested by Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN).
Both Senators' staffs agree Obama and McCain chatted amicably post-meeting.
The next day, Obama wrote McCain that he preferred his own party's legislation to a task force and suggested McCain take another look at the Dems' Honest Leadership Act.
"Next thing we know," a McCain adviser said, "[Obama] releases the letter to the press before sending it to McCain, insinuating McCain and others wanted to slow-go lobbying reform."
Gibbs said an Obama staffer informed McCain staffer about the letter, well before the letter was given to the press in the late afternoon on 2/3.
A McCain aide said that press calls alerted them to the letter early that morning, as McCain was on his way to security conference in Munich.
Three aides said McCain was astonished when he read the letter. His task force would be pressed to recommend solutions by the end of 2/06, probably before any legislation would emerge from the several Senate cmtes who have jurisdiction over lobbying and ethics and govt affairs. The leg. would then be referred to the govt. affairs cmte.
Obama, in his response letter to McCain, insists he told McCain and other Senators at the 2/1 meeting that "my caucus insisted that the consideration of any ethics reform proposal go through the regular committee process." That was, according to a McCain aide, a bizarre way to respond to a meeting involving the chair and ranking member of the cmte that would indeed mark-up leg stemming from the bipartisan task force.
Said the aide: "There was no discussion of bypassing the committee process at all. Susan Collins and Joe Lieberman were there. They're trying to be part of the process." Gibbs said that "When Obama brought up the caucus position that he believed and the Democrat caucus believe that what Sen. Frist initially proposed was a task force that circumvent the committee process, no one including Sen. McCain objected. If we didn't think discussion in a bipartisan way among senators wasn't productive, we would not have rearranged our schedule to attend the meeting."
An aide to McCain said he was offended by what he saw as Obama's insinuation that McCain, who first proposed bipartisan reform leg. in '05, wanted to eschew the cmte process and was by implication a partisan. Said another McCain adviser: "Don't blame your decision to stick with your leadership on those who are trying to do something in a bipartisan way."[MARC AMBINDER]
Would be NRCC heir Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) is a Coldplay fan. Who knew? And when the British pop group hits Washington on March 2, Sessions wants to help you score tickets.
According to an invitation obtained by the Hotline, Sessions's PETE PAC rented a luxury Skybox at the MCI Center for what the PAC calls "Date Night With Coldplay."
The Bellweather Group, a GOP firm, is helping the PAC put the event together.
A "date special" -- lobbyists and others who can convince their company's PAC to donate just $1,500 get two tickets. Fans can dip into their own pockets and pay just $1,000K. (Single tickets cost $500).
Coldplay's politics trend liberal; they recently signed onto Oxfam's Make Trade Fair campaign.
BTW: PETE PAC stands for People for Enterprise, Trade and Economic (growth.)
In the Hotline each week, polling editor Aoife McCarthy digs through the latest polls and public opinion research to bring readers the trends behind the numbers.
Here's last week's edition of Margin For Error.
Washington is always in a constant state of courtship -- stories, donations, and sources are always being chased. When it comes to the '06 battle for control, it's all about the votes. So who should campaigns be chasing in the upcoming election? In the installment of our series exploring the electorate, we are taking an in depth look at the electorate, rediscovering who they are, how they vote and why. What we discovered this week -- pious voters are hardly a new voter set, it's just that now, the Dems have come to realize their value. Thanks to the Univ. of MI American National Election Studies Guide (ANES), which provided the trends.
Continue reading "Margin For Error: Dems And The Values Voter" »
Good, goverment: A new and useful website from the Office of Management and Budget.
But it's a little balky and confusing. And it poses the post-modernist question: what is a "government program," exactly? And are the metrics of success determined by a diverse enough group of political appointees and bureaucrats?
The names of the programs are confusing enough: if the average citizen wants to know whether farm subsidies are worth the money -- they'd better know to search for "direct crop payments."
Though we, ah, expect more, the website is a step towards accountability and transparency. Which is a good thing.
An outraged Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) today called Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) insincere and partisan, suggesting the Illinois freshman as much as lied in private discussions the two had about ethics reform last week.
(McCain's letter is here and here; Obama's letter of last week is here)
McCain is perhaps the most admired Republican senator in the country and is likely an '08 presidential candidate. Obama, of course, is the Democratic Party's featured player, rivaling Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) in nationwide popularity and fundraising prowess. It is rare for a Senator to rebuke another so publicly, and all the more exceptional that McCain does not cloak his language in layers of euphemism.
"I would like to apologize to you for assuming that your private assurances to me regarding your desire to cooperate in our efforts to negotiate bipartisan lobbying reform were sincere," McCain writes.
Obama attended a meeting with McCain and senators committed to a bipartisan task force on ethics reform. McCain left the meeting convinced that Obama was open to working closely together, according to an aide.
But the next day, Obama wrote McCain that he preferred his own party's legislation to a task force and suggested McCain take another look at the Democratic caucus's Honest Leadership Act, which does not have a Republican cosponsor.
Wrote Obama: "I know you have expressed an interest in creating a task force to further study and discuss these matters, but I and others in the Democratic Caucus believe the more effective and timely course is to allow the committees of jurisdiction to roll up their sleeves and get to work[.]"
McCain, in his letter, takes exception to Obama's suggestion that his task force, which Dem. Sens. Joe Lieberman and Bill Nelson support, would impede reform.
McCain: "When you approached me and insisted that despite your leadership's preference to use the issue to gain a political advantage in the 2006 elections, you were personally committed to achieving a result that would reflect credit on the entire Senate and offer the country a better example of political leadership, I concluded your professed concern for the institution and the public interest was genuine and admirable. Thank you for disabusing me of such notions with your letter. ... I'm embarrassed to admit that after all these years in politics I failed to interpret your previous assurances as typical rhetorical gloss routinely used in political to make self-interested partisan posturing appear more noble. Again, sorry for the confusion, but please be assured I won't make the same mistake again."
Obama's spokesman, Robert Gibbs, called McCain's letter "confusing" and "headscratching." He said Obama "remains committed" to reform and will work with "any Republican and Democrat" who is serious about the issue. His letter to McCain, said Gibbs, signaled his preference "to get legislation through committee, rather than wait for a task force."
In his letter, McCain says that his task force proposal would ensure that meaningless or cosmetic reforms aren't rushed into law -- and that the solution in the end would reflect the interests of both parties and their voters.
His last line suggests that Obama will not soon regain McCain's favor.
Writes McCain, "I understand how important the opportunity to lead your party's effort to exploit this issue must seem to a freshman Senator, and I hold no hard feelings over your earlier disingenuousness. Again, I have been around long enough to appreciate that in politics the public interest isn't always a priority for every one of us. Good luck to you, Senator." [MARC AMBINDER AND PATRICK OTTENHOFF]
What better way for possible pres. candidates to ingratiate themselves to IA's top GOPer than by throwing a little money at his grandson? Sen. Chuck Grassley's (R-IA) grandson Patrick is running for the state legislature -- the same seat Chuck held when he was just 24 years old.
In his '05 finance reports, young Pat (he's only 22, which makes the entire Hotline staff feel very old) reports an impressive $50K raised, with $48K still on hand. Some of his donors, however, may have ulterior motives for donating, and at least one shows that there's some bipartisanship left in DC. Some notable donors:
Continue reading "One Way To Ingratiate Yourself With The Locals" »
The '06 campaign could mark the first time online networking sites cause havoc on the trail. Facebook, where college students post their pictures, profiles, and interests, has soared in popularity over the last year, and already has caused several controversies on the political front. In October, Gawker posted pictures from the profile of Tim Russert's son, Luke, lying in a hot tub with beer bottles and bikini-clad women.
Samuel Alito's son, Philip, removed his entry after his father was nominated to the Supreme Court.
The latest online profile controversy is over IN 08 Dem candidate/Sheriff Brad Ellsworth's 19-year-old daughter, Andrea, who's a student at IU. Over the weekend, Indiana Law School student Josh Claybourn passed along Facebook pictures of Andrea drinking beer, while pointing out on his blog that she's underage. Rep. John Hostettler's campaign has begun to make light of the pictures. His spokesperson said the controversy illustrates "the serious consequences of violating the law." [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
The Democrats have lost their dream candidate in CO, if published reports are to be believed.
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, a guy who walks around his city putting quarters in expired parking meters, has flirted with the idea of a CO GOV bid for months. Denver media are reporting this p.m. that he's decided not to run.
Dems (and many other Coloradans) are partial to Hickenlooper, and many weren't thrilled with ex-Denver A.G. Bill Ritter (D). GOPers in the race include Rep. Bob Beauprez and ex-U Denver pres. Marc Holtzman.
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
Another of our bottleneck states, both Dems and GOPers feature strong benches that could lead to intra-party squabbles and bruised egos. Dems feature some strong talent in Baltimore and Montgomery County, while the GOP faces possible contests in Baltimore and Harford Cos. Whomever emerges from the primaries of the future, however, should be strong. The words "prolific fundraiser" were mentioned frequently, and of course the proximity to DC makes these races more competitive, more expensive and better run. [REID WILSON]
Over the weekend, two-thirds of GA GOP state sens. collectively urged LG candidate Ralph Reed to quit the race, saying that his Abramoff ties could hurt the re-election chances of Gov. Sonny Perdue in November.
Reed dismissed the petition as a stunt, but the Atlanta Journal Constitution calls it unprecedented:
"....an open, written call for the departure of an established, well-funded candidate from the GOP primary by nearly two-thirds of the Senate Republican caucus is unprecedented -- and reflects growing worries within GOP ranks about the local impact of an expanding corruption scandal in Washington."
We watch them so you don't have to.
Nothing like a SOTU address to bring WH candidates out of the woodwork. On speech night, nine potential '08ers appeared on 14 different news shows, with several shows booking more than one candidate. The morning after, three '08ers appeared on five different morning shows. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was the big winner, appearing on more shows -- both cable and broadcast -- than any other '08er. Looking at SOTU appearances strictly by time, Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) have him beat simply because they appeared on "LKL" for the full hour (with Allen also stopping by "Hannity & Colmes"). But McCain was on a variety of shows, appearing on CBS, CNN, and MSNBC post-speech and then doing "GMA," "Early Show," "American Morning," and "Imus" the next day. Rudy Giuliani even showed up for the occasion and those two TV appearances moved him up the chart.
McCain may have been the GOPer to get the most SOTU time, but Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) was the Dem to beat. Richardson had him beat time wise because of the "LKL" appearance but Biden had more variety. He previewed the speech on CNN and MSNBC and then did CBS' post-game coverage. The next day he hit the "Early Show" and "American Morning." That moved Biden to the number two spot on the list, knocking Newt Gingrich to number three. Allen made an impressive move up the charts to number four, and even a "Meet the Press" appearance and SOTU coverage couldn't help Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist, who got knocked out of the top five. [EMILY GOODIN]
The Jack Abramoff scandal is reverberating outside the Beltway, all the way out to Reno, NV. Check out this recent article in the Reno Gazette-Journal, which reports that two NV lawmakers are being taken to task for attending a NASCAR reception in '05 in the owner's sky box. They said it was part of their official duties, not a perk. "In a way, it is almost an obligation to participate in community events," one of the lawmakers told the G-J.
The event, sponsored by the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, has drawn scrutiny because neither the lawmakers nor Speedway lobbyists reported it on disclosure forms meant to tell the public about gifts legislators receive from those with business before the legislature.
Perhaps Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) put it best when we chased him down a back staircase after the vote yesterday to ask how it was that John Boehner pulled the upset. Davis said that Boehner, whom he called "one of the best political minds in the business," simply had a "very good second ballot strategy." As to whether some of Blunt's first ballot supporters went south on him in the second round, Davis, who backed Blunt, flatly said, "absolutely."
For the past week or so, we were told by both Boehner and Shadegg backers that, while Blunt may have racked up a good list of initial endorsements, those promises were good for just the first round of voting. If the Whip had not counted his votes right on the first try, they said, support would come their way.
That is exactly what happened. The CW was right this time.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]
We hear from a source who would know that following the a.m. meeting of the newly-minted GOP leadership team today, Boehner came up to Blunt's Capitol office for a lengthy session. The powwow only included the two members, our source said, and went on for some time.
How did YOUR '08er do in '05? Who has the most cash? Who has the most transferrable cash? Who's burning through cash like nobody's business?
Check out our complete, updated chart.
Veteran Republican consultant Craig Shirley -- he'd be mad if we called him "long-time" -- is slowly becoming the pied piper of neo-Reaganism in an era when many GOP strategists are urging the party to return to its Reaganite roots.
Potential '08 candidates like VA Sen. George Allen consciously style themselves as neo-Reaganites. (Monday would have been Reagan's 95th birthday; Allen plans a floor statement.)
Shirley's "Reagan's Revolution: The Untold Story Of The Campaign That Started It All" is a fascinating, minutely detailed account of how Reagan conservatives rose to power in by virtue of their defeat, and how the New Right (the Moral Majority evangelicals), the anti-communists and tax-weary business owners, along with YAF activists -- ironed out a new conservatism.
The good news: Shirley is writing the natural sequel -- the triumph of Reagan's '80 elections. The title tentatively is Rendevous with Destiny. ISI Books is the publisher; they hope to send it to bookstores by spring 2008.
Though we are a political outfit, we can't help but have sports on the mind going into this Super weekend. And, because we are political junkies, we've managed to find a political hook on Sunday's game. More on that after the jump.
But because we are also sports junkies, we've managed to find the sports hook in the weekend's political news, as well.
That's right, bet you didn't know that golf and Barclays were not always Maj Leader John Boehner's sole avocations.
He played football under Gerry Faust at Cincinnati's storied Archbishop Moeller H.S. Faust, as the more astute of you will know, would later coach another Midwest Catholic school. The one up the road in South Bend, IN.
Moreover, Boehner is not even the most famous (or popular) Cincinnatian to come out of Moeller. Those honors would got to ex-Red Barry Larkin and current Red Ken Griffey, Jr.
Oh, and those the Colonials here would want you to know that all was not totally peachy yesterday in Boehner-land: his college alma mater, Xavier, took it on the chin at home against GWU.
Which is why it's fun to write about it.
The hot ticket for movement conservatives around Valentine's day? The invitation-only meeting of the Council For National Policy.
The group's leaders bristle at the word "secretive," but the CNP does its best to keep prying journalist eyes away. This year, the CNP's several hundred members will meet at a ritzy hotel in Las Vegas -- probably where liberals would least expect.
For nearly a quarter century, the CNP meetings have brought together leading conservative policy intellectuals and political movers and shakers. Candidates who want movement cred often skulk around, as do professional fundraisers and consultants. That's worried some CNP stalwarts, who want to tighten membership requirements and keep the hangers on -- out. Others say the CNP is too stodgy and its members -- the veteran warriors of the movement -- are no longer as relevant.
And competing groups are springing up. About 140 conservatives who call themselves Legacy -- not Legacy group or The Legacy Project, just Legacy -- met in Washington, D.C. this week to assess conservative candidates seeking state and national offices.
hat's partly a trademark of CNP. At a meeting last year in Orlando, members like Paul Weyrich mused about the potential presidential candidacy of Tim Pawlenty.
In 1999, then Texas Gov. George W. Bush won over not a few prominent conservatives by promising that his evangelical faith would inform his policy. One sign of the times: two presidential hopefuls -- Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) and Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) -- spoke to the Legacy.
None are known to be scheduled to speak CNP -- at least not yet. But in one way -- the flowering of competition is testament to CNP's power: founded to spread conservative ideas widely, dozens of conservative movement entrepreneurs owe their success to its success. [MARC AMBINDER]
Per the AP:
Federal judge Reggie Walton today set ex-VP CoS Lewis "Scooter" Libby's trial date for 1/8/07, 2 "months after the midterm congressional elections." Walton "said he had hoped to start the trial in September but one of Libby's lawyers had a scheduling conflict that made an earlier date impossible."
Boehner's camp wasted no time in seeking to frame the forthcoming profile pieces more along the lines of "up-by-his bootstraps Cincinnati boy made good" than "chain-smoking, golf-loving, warehouse party-throwing pol's pol." Or, more practially, more "Gang Of Seven" and "No Child Left Behind" than "Sallie Mae" and "Tobacco Checks On House Floor."
In fact, they sent out the below story so fast that one may think they had it ready for this moment for some time. Sorta like that 37 page manifesto they released the day after Boehner got in the race last month.
Nice work, guys.
Coming Tomorrow -- The Inside Story
How Boehner's second ballot strategy won the day.
How Ways & Means Cmte chair Bill Thomas'(CA) nominating speech may have moved some 11th hour votes in Boehner's direction.
How Blunt's gracious concession speech triggered a standing ovation from his colleagues and perhaps forestalled any thought of removing him from his Whip post.
And which notable Texas member Boehner singled out for praise in his remarks to the Conference.
Blunt put on his best face at the GOP leadership presser after the vote, but was clearly disappointed.
Explaining why he came up short, Blunt deadpanned that he "can count votes on the floor with quite a bit more precision than in" a private ballot leadership race.
The new leadership of House Republicans, in a joint appearance, pledged to put aside their differences and move aggresively to restore confidence in Congress.
New Majority Leader John Boehner called the race "well-fought." Boehner: "I think what you're going to see us rededicate yourself to the issues that the American people expect us to deal with."
He then introduced "Our whip and my friend, Roy Blunt."
Said Blunt, "These are the hardest kinds of competition. They take friends who work closely work ... and make [the] members face tough choices. I have great confidence in the capacity of our memebrs to figure out what the country needs."
Tomorrow, the new House GOP leadership team will meet in Speaker Dennis Hastert's office to discuss the legislative agenda.
For the first time in a while, ex-VP Al Gore put his name to an e-mail fundraising solicitation on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Commission.
Gore, in the letter: "Let me be perfectly clear. Our American values are at risk. George Bush is pursuing a truly breathtaking and unprecedented power grab that marginalizes the role of both our federal courts and the Congress. As a result, he has been able to enact the most extreme aspects of his right-wing agenda in virtual secret and without meaningful oversight. It stops now. Together, we can change the balance of power in Washington. We can elect a Democratic Senate in just 10 short months that will stand up to the Bush administration's unprecedented power grab and will stand up for our American values again."
"The single best way to end one-party rule in Washington as soon as possible is to support the DSCC in its mission to elect a Democratic Senate."
The full text is after the jump.
[John] "Boehner ran on a platform of reform," John Shadegg told reporters after the vote. "Now it is his job to carry that forward."
Shadegg said that the conference gave Rep. Roy Blunt a standing ovation after he was defeated. And he said the conference -- himself included -- wanted Blunt to remain majority whip.
Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) downplayed any friction between Blunt and Boehner, both of whom campaigned quite fiercely against the other. The two are "pros," Davis said. "You're not going to have the ideological friction that you have between Pelosi and Hoyer."
Rep. Mike Pence, in a statement, said that he looks forward to working with Boehner to advance the Republican agenda of limited government, fiscal discipline and traditional moral values during the balance of the 109th Congress."
BTW: On the first ballot for policy chair, Rep. Adam Putnam took the lead with 95 votes. Rep. Phil Gingrey was eliminated; he came in fourth. [MARC AMBINDER]
From a statement:
"John Boehner is a good friend, and this has been a well fought race for Leader. I look forward to working with him at the leadership table to advance an agenda aimed at limited government, personal responsibility, and economic and national security."
"House Republicans have hard work ahead of us. First we must restore Americans' faith in our system."
"I'm confident John Boehner will be a Leader we can unite around as we move forward to do the hard work Americans sent us here to do."
Rep. Zach Wamp, one of four GOPers planning to run for House majority whip, said Rep. Roy Blunt (MO) plans to hold onto that post following his defeat to Rep. John Boehner (OH) in the race for leader.
Rep. John Boehner (OH) wins the House majority leader's race on a second ballot. Boehner took 122 votes; Rep. Roy Blunt (MO) received 109.
Boehner picked up all of Rep. John Shadegg's (AZ) support. Blunt actually lost one vote from the first round of balloting.
At 1:55 p.m., Boehner was talking to GOP colleagues. He was expected to speak to the press shortly. [JONATHAN MARTIN]
So... that's it? That was the "battle royale" we were promised last summer when swing-voter Sandra Day O'Connor announced she'd leave the Supreme Court? Check out Hotline senior editor John Mercurio's latest PolitiScope.
Our Jonathan Martin reports --- Rep. Roy Blunt (MO) led in the first round of votes for majority leader, but failed to win the magic 117, forcing a second vote. Rep. John Boehner (OH) was second with 79 votes; Rep. John Shadegg (AZ) was third with 40 votes. Rep. Jim Ryun (KS) received two write-ins.
As of 1:30 p.m., GOPers are counting the ballots in a second vote.
As of 1:15 p.m., House GOPers were holding a second vote on the first ballot in the majority leader election. A first vote was thrown out because they had neglected to count the vote of Puerto Rico Del. Luis Fortuno, who doesn't have a House floor vote but is eligible to vote in leadership elections. Stay tuned ...
The nominating speeches are over and the balloting has begun.
One major surprise among those who gave the nominating and seconding speeches for the three candidates:
Powerful Ways & Means Cmte chair Bill Thomas (CA) spoke for Boehner. Thomas, whose cmte includes 9 GOPers who had yet to endorse, was heretofore publicly uncommitted in the race.
Last night, about 30 GOPers were feted in DC by six unions representing the basic construction trades: the Laborers, Carpenters, Operating Engineers, Ironworkers, Bricklayers, and the Teamsters.
The unions wanted to thank the GOPers who supported them on a range of issues, including successful efforts to persuade the WH to repeal its Davis-Bacon Act suspension.
Also stopping by: Rep. Roy Blunt and Rep. John Boehner. The message, according to a labor official: "We wanted them to know that we support many of their members who support us on issues and causes."
Also appearing: Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO), along with the General Presidents of the unions, who represent several million workers between them.
Why Talent? Labor officials were mum, but it's worth noting that the Carpenters, the Laborers and the Operators endorsed MO's senior Sen. Kit Bond. And Talent was a key proponent of private activity bonds to fund infastructure in the recently-passed highway bill.[MARC AMBINDER]
Move Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD) into Team Blunt's column.
Per a staffer of a member who was in attendance, Gilchrest spoke on Blunt's behalf at a meeting of the moderate Tuesday Group last night.
The MD'er is the first member to publicly jump teams.
So Blunt's camp goes into the vote with 100 public commitments to Boehner's 51 and Shadegg's 17.
Here's Chuck Todd's latest Senate race rankings. He'll update them every week.
And Quinn McCord is on top of the FEC filings, so you'll know who has money and who needs it.
Today, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), in a speech to The Center for Strategic and International Studies in DC, plans to take up WH DCoS Karl Rove's challenge for Democrats to come up with a strong national security message.
Make no mistake: Bayh's speech will be not a policy address with political undertones; his aides are billing it as a direct acknowledgement of the need to create and disseminate a big-D-Democratic national security political message.
We'll provide excerpts a bit later.
It's also worth noting that Sen. Tom Daschle, in his speech last night to students at Iowa State U in Ames, telling them that "America's greatness may be inherited. But it is not guaranteed. It is bolstered and defended by each successive generation."
Daschle's message was that people across the round, even if they dislike American policies, aspire to American values.
Member, Senate Committee on Armed Services and
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
"A New Approach to the
National Security Debate"
Introduction by
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
Today's state: Maine.
Retirement rumors abound in ME, but so far, none have come true. Some Dems we talked to still hope Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) will forgo a re-election bid in '06, but that's not going to happen. Meanwhile, term limits are causing serious turnover and constant new blood, so while some of our '03 stars are still rising, several are considered finished. Still, most of the ones we watch seem poised to spring out of the box at the first hint of a real retirement. [REID WILSON]
Below is our final public list of endorsements claimed by Rep's Blunt, Boehner and Shadegg.
Both Blunt and Boehner added names last night. With his new supporters, Blunt now boasts of 100 public backers. One of his 100 is Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (MD).
Gilchrest, though, has been on Boehner's list for some time. Asked about the double allegiance, Team Blunt reasserted that the maverick Eastern Shore native was in their camp.
Asked the same question, a source close to Boehner's camp said that "Gilchrest staff has indicated to Boehner supporters that they're unaware of any change in Gilchrest's position."
Late night and early morning calls to Gilchrest's office went unanswered.
Though only one vote, the competing claims underscore just how competitive the race has gotten as all three candidates scrap to reach 117.
At Noon, though, all the lists and spin are out the window.
And don't forget, should Blunt win there will immediately be a vote to replace him as Whip. Keep an eye on "On Call" as we'll be over on the Hill for the festivities.
Going into the vote we have: Blunt 99; Boehner 51; Shadegg 17. And don't forget the Gilchrest discrepancy. With two camps claiming him, we've taken the MD'er off the list entirely.
Final List below:
Continue reading "The Final List: Every Name Counts En Route To 117" »
Faced with a devastating Boston Globe story this morning, AG Tom Reilly's (D) hand-picked running mate, state Rep. Marie St. Fleur, was to announce tonight that she will take herself off the ticket. The Globe piece revealed that St. John was in tough financial straits and had multiple tax and student loan delinquencies to her name.
Just as interesting, Reilly's Primary opponent, ex-Clinton DOJ official Deval Patrick, took advantage of his rival's bad press to admit that he had had a tax lien of his own!
AP's Glen Johnson has the details.
Beyond the notable DeLay "no" on the vote to end ex-members' access to the House floor and House gym were two others: Rep's Joel Hefley (R-CO) and Alan Mollohan (D-WV).
Until he was relieved of his duties last year, Hefley served as chair of the ethics cmte. Mollohan is the cmte's ranking member. Both voted to allow their former colleagues to keep enjoying the special priveleges.
Virtually no member with anything approaching a competitive race this fall dared to cast a "no" on the measure. Quite a few senior members (perhaps eying their own futures?) were among the 50 that did, though. Among these were cmte chairs: Thomas (CA), Young (AK), Oxley (OH), Barton (TX).
The budget vote, which had been widely viewed as a test of Blunt's vote-counting acumen going into tomorrow's election, provided less drama than some expected. 13 GOPers voted no and two did not vote as the bill passed 216-214
Of the 13, Blunt's whip team saw only four defections from the original December vote: Rep's Simmons (CT), Sweeney (NY), Gerlach (PA) and Ramstad (MN). The first three all face serious challengers this fall and had come under much pressure to flip after a month back in their blue-tinted districts. And, for what it's worth, the latter two have endorsed Boehner for leader.
Beyond these four, Blunt also lost Rep. Walter Jones (NC), who did not vote the previous time. Jones is supporting Shadegg. But Jones' "no" was balanced out by V.A. Cmte chair Steve Buyer's no-to-yes switch from December. Buyer, btw, is supporting Boehner, but owes his chairmanship to the current leadership structure. The two who did not vote were Rep's Ernie Istook (OK) and Gary Miller (CA). Miller has endorsed Boehner while Istook, busy running for GOV, has stayed publicly neutral.
Despite having to do without these 15 members of their Conference and again facing unanimous Dem opposition, Blunt's operation won the vote with apparent ease. Indeed, Rep. Mark Foley (FL) -- not coincidentally an early and vocal Blunt backer -- gaveled down the vote just nine mintues after it was called, four more than the alloted time. As close observers of this House leadership know, four extra minutes is nothing. LoBiondo's vote put the GOP over the top and Rep. Sue Kelly (NY) made 216.
When Blunt passed the bill in the pre-dawn hours of 12/19, he did so with a six vote cushion. Twas a tigher squeeze today, but a win's a win. And this one didn't make the MO'ian sweat. What, if anything, that portends for tomorrow's vote remains to be seen. But for his part, Blunt, speaking off the House floor after the vote, said he never put any stock in today's vote being much of a predictor anyways.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]
UPDATE:
216-214.
Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ) proved to be the decisive 215th vote.
At that moment, according to the Hotline's Jonathan Martin, Acting Majority Leader Roy Blunt pantomimed a throat slash to the presiding officer, Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL). Upon receipt of that sign, Foley quickly gaveled the voting period to a close.
The flips: Jim Gerlach, Rob Simmons, John Sweeney, to start with.
On the measure to revoke former members' floor and gym privileges, the vote was 379, Yes; 50, No. One Present.
And Rep. Tom DeLay voted...
No.
(Per the Hotline's Jonathan Martin on Capitol Hill.)
1. The number of public committments does not necessarily reflect the strength of private convictions. See below.
2. 85 of y'all want new leaders. Your Conference estimated that only 30 of you would vote as you did this a.m.
3. Change is in the air.
As the Hotline reported, Rep. John Larson (D-CT) defeated Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY) 116-87 in the second round of balloting to take over for Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) as the new Dem Caucus vice chair. Crowley captured 79 votes in the first round of voting to Larson's 66, with Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) taking 56. Short of the necessary 103 votes, Crowley, who entered the vote with a sizable lead in public commitments, saw the vast majority of Schawkosky's supporters put Larson over the top. Larson had not released his list of backers during the race.
Rarely a does cartoon raise the ire of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Here is said cartoon and here is said ire.
The cartoon features a veteran, arms and legs amputated, being told be a doctor, "I'm listing your condition as battle-hardened." The Doctor is "Rumsfeld."
The Joint Chiefs call it "beyond tasteless."
The Hotline's Quinn McCord dug through the Senate campaign FEC reports and put them all into a handy chart for your perusal.
The highlights:
-- It's slow-going in HI, where Case actually lost CoH this Q. Akaka raised just $4K.
-- Steele did better than Cardin in MD, but he started way behind. Can he keep it up without more Bush fundraisers?
-- GOPer Kennedy outraised Klobuchar 2-1 in MN. (Will she face self-funding Ciresi?).
-- Morrison's pulling away from fellow Dem Tester in MT. But he trailed Burns 2-1 for the Q and 4-1 in CoH.
-- In NE, Ricketts had a big self-funding quarter, but are his ads having an effect?
-- No one in OH had a great Q. Hackett got more contributions than Brown, but he took no PAC money. So Brown got more total receipts. DeWine had almost twice as much CoH as Brown.
-- Santorum had an edge over Casey in PA; both spent $1M+.
-- Harris had a better Q in FL. But even with $250K of her own funds, she still trailed Nelson nearly 2-1.
-- In TN, Bryant and Hilleary are still close, presumably to Corker's benefit.
Out of the public eye, about 140 of the nation's wealthiest social and moral conservatives sequestered themselves at a Washington, D.C. hotel this week. Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) stopped by for lunch. MA Gov. Mitt Romney took their questions at dinner. Susan Allen, the wife of Sen. George Allen, hosted tea. In their own words, these conservatives are working to change the world.
At first glance, the operational secrecy and trappings of The Legacy --- that's what they call themselves -- "Legacy" -- lends itself to conspiracy theories. But The Legacy has an age-old -- and quite transparent -- mission.
According to several participants in this week's conference -- one of whom is a member -- the Legacy's origins are humble. In 2003, a half-dozen conservative couples -- regular donors to conservative and Republican causes and campaigns -- decided to pull together a network of like-minded families. They were inspired by Pres. Bush's call for "compassionate conservatism," which they interpreted broadly. The group decided to convene private meetings, where candidates seeking their financial support would take questions on subjects ranging from the environment to the death penalty to slavery in the third world. And if candidates demonstrated their commitment to the same principles, the group would reward them by bundling donations from its members to their campaigns. In '04, the group steered money to Senate candidates John Thune in SD and Mel Martinez in FL. (A senior Republican campaign official says the group was a "great help.") This year, Sen. Rick Santorum and MD LG Michael Steele will get the bundled donations.
The group meets twice each year, once in Washington in winter and once every summer in Colorado Springs. The latter conclave brings together members and their families. There's even a kids program.
Two confirmed members of the group: Walden Media billionaire Phillip Anschutz and Steve Friess, the son of wealthy private banker and philanthropist Foster Friess.
Membership is uniquely restrictive. Applicants must be recommended by a current member, who must also vouch for their bona fides. Members must profess their belief in God and pledge their fealty to conservative principles guided by Judeo-Christian values. Most are Protestants; a majority is evangelical. Prospective members must agree to champion small government, a strong national defense and the free-market system. And applicants must be identified leaders in their chosen field, able to influence others and willing to devote themselves to the Legacy's mission. That usually means they are rich. Several conservatives familiar with the group say a proximate Legacy goal is to identify and nurture the next generation of conservative philanthropists -- the heirs to the Scaifes, the Bradleys and the Olins. Legacy intends for 80 percent of its membership to be under 50 years old, so it is always recruiting.
That means the mission of the group is necessarily broad: though there is uniform agreement about the wrongness of gay marriage and the tragedy of abortion, Legacy members take a page from the National Association of Evangelicals' call for civic responsibility -- a concern for the well-being of God's creation, from mercy for the poor to care and stewardship of the planet to the sanctity and dignity of the family. [MARC AMBINDER]
That Sen. John McCain, who is to endorse Rep. John Shadegg for Maj Leader at a 3:15 Capitol presser, has already started calling around to some of his GOP pals in the House.
One thing to offer an endorsement to his fellow AZ'an and pork-buster, but quite another to actively whip support for his bid.
If you are feeling inundated by all the SOTU coverage and want some real, hard political data, check out the below on yesterday's special state Senate election in VA's exurban Loudoun Co.
The Dem won the previously GOP-held seat 62%-38. Beyond the impressive margin for such a conservative-leaning area, what caught out eye was that the GOPer did not even manage to win a single one of the district's 52 precincts.
Yes, it was a low-turnout special election in late January, but keep in mind that another Dem (who also pushed a planned-growth platform to curb development and traffic) also fared pretty well recently on this heretofore GOP turf.
You might have caught him on TV last night giving the response to the SOTU.
Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief
Reid Wilson, Editor
Contributing Editors:
John Mercurio, Quinn McCord, Tim Sahd, Maura O'Brien, and Abby Livingston
Contributing Writers:
Holly Noe, Ian Faerstein, Rachelle Douillard-Proulx, Sean J. Miller, Steven Shepard, and Felicia Sonmez
On Call editors reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments. The Hotline, National Journal Group, Inc. and Atlantic Media Company are not responsible for the content of the comments that remain.
