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The Futures Market: Mississippi

February 15, 2006 9:58 AM | |

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What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

Today, Mississippi. A number of African American GOPers made our list, though many seem to have chosen the wrong districts to run in. While they're popular on their home turf, no one expects several to move up because of the heavily-Dem tilt of their CDs. Dems, meanwhile, have some momentum after one of their stars beat out a GOPer for whom Sen. Trent Lott (R) and Gov. Haley Barbour (R) had personally campaigned. Dems see that election as a possible turning point heading into what they hope is a successful '06. One sign of their future success will be MS 03, where only a few candidates would have the potential to give Rep. Chip Pickering (R) a run for his money. Whether the DCCC can recruit well enough to take advantage of one of those candidates while they're still popular remains to be seen. [REID WILSON]


The stars we've been watching since '03:

  • Tchula Mayor Yvonne Brown (R): "Very talented," but wouldn't have a good chance in MS 02 against Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) or another Dem.

  • State Rep. Mark Formby (R): A former aide to Sen. Trent Lott (R), he "thinks a lot more of himself than most everybody else does." Had been a recruiting target by the NRCC to run against Rep. Gene Taylor (D), but decided against it.

  • State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R): A "big talker," but not a fiscal conservative, which could hurt him in a GOP primary. Had considered a bid for LG in '07, but has decided against it.

  • State Sen. Charlie Ross (R): Running for LG. A Harvard law grad and ex-fighter pilot, he "would make a good" LG. Sometimes he "doesn't come across well," but he's "smart as hell."

  • State Rep. Carmel Wells Smith (R): She "can't go anywhere" because she "doesn't have any traction."

  • Businesswoman Rita Wrey (R): She ran for State Sen, but lost in a primary. Now works in the admin of Gov. Haley Barbour (R).

  • State Sen. Barbara Blackmon (D): The Dem LG nominee in '03, family and professional obligations will probably keep her out of any '07 race.

  • MS Policy Forum Pres. Rickey Cole: The former chair of the State Party and a candidate for Sen in '00, some think he'll run for office "in the near future," but he may have problems with MS's still racially-charged atmosphere. As one source told us, MS "has come a long way, but it hasn't come" far enough.

  • State Sen. Deborah Dawkins (D): She "hasn't made any noise" about higher office.

  • State Rep. Dirk Dedeaux (D): "People are ready to throw his name out there" for higher office. He runs in the right circles in the legislature and chairs a House cmte. Seen as a wonkish member of the Speaker's inner circle.

  • State Rep. Erik Fleming (D): Running against Sen. Trent Lott (R) and currently the only Dem in the race. One Dem told us he'll get 33% of the vote, "38% if there's a backlash." "He's a great guy, but he just doesn't have that appeal."

  • State Rep. Omeria Scott (D): "I don't think she's looking at running for a larger seat right now," but is running for re-election. Others consider her a 2nd tier back-bencher.

  • State Sen. Gloria Williamson (D): Has been encouraged to run against Pickering in MS 03 and is considering a future bid. She would be "one of the better candidates we can field."

And the stars to watch in the future:

  • State Rep. Jim Simpson: An atty on the Gulf Coast, he lost his house in Hurricane Katrina. He remains "very talented" and would be "a hell of a candidate" if he ran for LG or Gov in the future.

  • State Rep. Michael Janus (R): Has a background in city and county gov't and would be a skilled down-ballot candidate in the future.

  • State Rep. Philip Gunn (R): In his first term in the legislature, he's "a guy to watch" and a "very promising guy."

  • Gov. Barbour Policy Advisor Jim Perry (R): The former LD to Rep. Roger Wicker (R), GOPers are sure that "at some point, he'll run for something."

  • MS Dir. of Rural Development Nick Walters (R): A Bush admin appointee and an experienced campaign operative, he had considered a bid for LG before Katrina hit, but decided to stay around and help rebuild the state. Considered a future candidate for Rep. Chip Pickering's (R) MS 03 seat.

  • State Treas. Tate Reeves (R): Just 30 years old, "he's got a long time to set up a future for himself."

  • State Rep. Jamie Franks (D): Considered the "presumptive nominee" for LG in '07, he's actively trying to keep others out of the race. A "strong populist voice" in the State House, he's "extremely bright."

  • State Rep. Chuck Espy (D): The nephew of ex-Ag Sec Mike Espy, Chuck is currently running against Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) in MS 02. Some think he can beat Thompson with enough money to get on TV. Sources familiar with the race say Espy has a shot not because the constituents are enamored of Espy, but because "a huge reservoir of discontent" with Thompson's mostly-African American constituency.

  • State Rep. Angela Cockerham (D): In her late 20s and "very articulate," she just won a special election. "You can look for a bright future for her." Cockerham is "a bright spot, and intellectually a step up over her predecessor."

  • State Rep. Shaun Walley (D): The school teacher won a special election in '05, beating a candidate for whom Sen. Lott and Gov. Haley Barbour (R) had personally doorbelled. As a candidate, he stuck to his Dem guns and "didn't have to do any bible-thumping." Dems crow that this is the first time a "traditional" Dem alliance has beaten Barbour.