The Futures Market: Missouri
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
Now, Missouri. The benches of both parties are licking their chops for the coming cycles, when several retirements seem likely to catapult the farm team to the big leagues. GOPers can't wait for Rep. Ike Skelton (D) to retire from his safe but heavily-GOP seat, and Dems are happy with a few recent gains in the legislature. A number of stars from both sides are also considering bids for AG and Sec/State, should current Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D) make a bid for Gov, as expected. MO's stars may not be names we know about now, but we'll hear about them in a short time. [REID WILSON]
The stars we've been watching since '03:
- US Atty Catherin Hanaway (R): The former House Speaker is now a Bush appointee after losing an '04 bid for Sec/State. She'll "keep her options open" in the future and may be interested in the open AG seat in '08
- House Speaker Rod Jetton (R): He "hasn't really talked about a statewide run" and prefers to operate as a "good ol' boy" who tends to swing right. Term-limited as of '08.
- LG Peter Kinder (R): MO's LG candidates run separately from the Gov, and Kinder out-performed other GOPers in traditionally Dem strongholds. He's favored to succeed Gov. Matt Blunt (R) once he moves on.
- State Sen. Min Leader Delbert Scott (R): A "people genius" but "not a political genius," he would be "pretty darn hard to beat" in a race for Rep. Ike Skelton's (D) MO 04 seat when Skelton retires.
- Rep. Jo Ann Emerson CoS Lloyd Smith (R): Currently running Sen. Jim Talent's (R) re-election bid after running his successful '02 campaign.
- State Rep. Rachel Bringer (D): Still a member of the State House, she's term-limited and has decided against a bid for State Sen.
- State Sen. Maida Coleman (D): Now the Sen Min Leader, she'd considered a bid for State Auditor. Weak fundraising numbers forced her out of the race, although she may run for local office in St. Louis.
- MO Dem. Pol. Dir. Brandon Davis (D): After working on out-of-state projects during the '04 cycle, he returned to the State Party.
- State Rep. Wes Shoemyer (D): Running for State Sen, he's favored to pick up a GOP seat.
- Ex-Econ Development Dir. Kelvin Simmons (D): The former Public Service Commis. Chair is back in the private sector after serving in Gov. Bob Holden's (D) admin.
And the stars to watch in the future:
- State Rep. Brad Lager (R): Chair of the House Budget Cmte and a candidate for State Sen, he's a "hard-charger" and "the most interesting up-and-comer in the group." Will probably be a candidate for Rep. Sam Graves' (R-06) seat when Graves retires.
- State Sen. Jason Crowell (R): The former House Maj Floor leader, he's been called MO's Tom DeLay and the "most powerful man in the" MO legislature. "He can hurt you in the House, he can stop you in the" Sen.
- Rep. Roy Blunt CoS Amy Field (R): Blunt's personal CoS, she "does an excellent job." "Her stock continues to grow."
- State Sen. Mike Givens (R): Pres Pro Tem of Sen, "would probably be interested in" AG's race in '08. Had "an incredibly successful legislative session" and will be "very powerful" in the Sen.
- State Rep. Martin Rucker (D): An African-American elected in a rural district, he's the father of Carolina Panther Mike Rucker. MO Dems suspect he'll be a go-to guy in the future.
- State Rep. Jeff Harris (D): Elected House Min Leader in his 2nd term, he may be an '08 AG candidate. "Definitely a rising star."
- State Rep. Clint Zweifel (D): One of the few Dems to beat an incumbent GOPer in '04, he now runs the House Dem Campaign Cmte.
- State Rep. Rachel Stortch (D): The former Deputy CoS to Sen. Jean Carnahan (D), she may be on her way up the ladder.
Maida Coleman's still in the auditor's race, unless you have some new info on that. As of yesterday, there were reports of her telling backers that she was committed to staying in the race for State Auditor.
It's State Sen. Mike Gibbons, not "Givens".
I think the "Futures Market" pieces are a great idea. Here are a couple corrections that should be noted:
Delbert Scott is Majority Caucus Secretary, not Minority Leader.
State Rep. Rachel Bringer is not term-limited; She was first elected to the House in 2002.
As mentioned in the post above, state Sen. Maida Coleman is still running for auditor.
State Rep. Brad Lager is not chair of the House Budget Committee.
"Mike Gibbons", not "Mike Givens."
State Rep. Clint Zweifel was first elected in 2002, not 2004.
"Rachel Storch", not "Rachel Stortch."
As the guy that produced the 60,000 vote lead coming out of SWMO, a 7+% increase per county from Jim's '00 gov race, I am very familiar w/Mr. Smith. Lloyd is the real deal, he is one of the best political minds out there by far, the next Karl Rove and will keep Jim in the Senate. Having said that, there are a couple names missing from your list: What about Jack Oliver is there a more popluar fellow across the state, Sarah Steelman ck out her '04 numbers esp in rural MO, St Sen. Jack Goodman guarantee you'll see a statewide in his near future, St Rep Bob Dixon very popular in main parts of 7th dist, can run in 20/30 Sen dist. Ten yr prediction, Gov Blunt's DepCoS John Russell, if you are familiar w/the lineage no more need be said, if not ask someone.
Good roundup of the players. However, I would have to disagree with the Wes Shoemyer as "favored" assessment. He is way behind in fundraising to Behnen and will be the heavily targeted by the state party. Behnen is heavily favored in the most populous area of the whole district, Kirksville.
Definitely some names in there that shouldn't be and some major omissions.
- I'd say Beth Low and especially Maria Chapelle Nadal are real up and comers in the state house- young, smart, with lots of potential in the future.
- Jeff Smith- progressive star in St. Louis area who almost beat Carnahan in the 3rd district primary. He also muscled one of your other rising stars out of the 4th district senate primary.
- Chris Koster- substantive, effective Republican state senator. Real rising star.
echo everyone else's statements, left a few people off, but overall you did a good job reading a state's political tea leaves even though you have no experience there.
having said that i would like to add a few names
dont forget:
Jared Craighead, only 29 and ED of the MO GOP
Jeff Roe, behind lloyd smith the brightest political mind in MO, and the only reason the dccc had to drop even a dime in MO5 last year. if MO were IA or NH, you'd know who he is.
i am glad you gave amy poe props, the girl is the real deal. one of the nicest most effective people you will ever deal with.
chris koster is already counted on as a GOP pickup when skelton retires.
brad lager, dont know him, but he seems to have had some political misfortune lately. was removed as house budget chair and them primaried in what was supposed to be (and maybe still is, dont know) a cakewalk state senate race.
todd graves, sam's bro and us attorney for the western half of MO. failed candidtate for state auditor in 2000.
jeff smith, should be a member of congress if it werent for the carnahan name.
sarah steelman, at this point probably could beat blunt in a primary. would be a tragic mistake for her to make though. Matt Blunt came into a crappy situation, knew he had to make a bunch of hard decisions, and had the backbone to make them, and made them all early. he knew he'd be in a hole, and he will dig himself out.
jeanne patterson, rumor is that she might run statewide?? her and her husband put themselves on the map in 04.
roy temple's band of posters at firedup missouri are changing the way things break in the state, even though i think he takes it too far most of the time.
and finally- john combest. he commented above, check out his link.
keep up the good work
tony a.
Like this feature of the Hotline Blog, but some comments...Jack Oliver, while well liked, has never run for anything in Missouri and is at a point in his career where he will likely not run for anything (he is a lobbyist). Catherine Hanaway is the 'lady in waiting' in the party. Peter Kinder has a lot of upside to his future, and Rod Jetton needs to get some years in before he runs for anything state wide...Brad Lager's star has dropped since he was pulled from being House Budget chair by the Gov. and Jetton... Little bit of a stretch comparing Lloyd Smith with Karl Rove...Mike Gibbons is definitely a comer...John Russell in '12? Odds are good.
True, why would anyone making 500k+ want the heart or head ache but Jack can raise the "jack" and we all know that is becoming more and more important. As for my Lloyd Smith statement,I stand by it unabashedly.....SEMO mafia, has taken over and can(and have)make or break ya. Agree...PK has options, gov or 8th dist. MG will make a good AG and Catherine is due one. My apologizes for leaving Todd off the list as for Mr. Roe, I just thought everyone knew him. Gald ya agree about JR, outstanding young man. For ALL...Did Jetton step in it? Comments.....