March 2006

If there is another Member that is taking better advantage of all that the "New Media" has to offer than Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), we'd like to know who it is.

Not only does Kingston have his own blog, he also podcasts (check out the shameless iPod knock-off on the latter). What's more, the House GOP Conference vice chair has been instrumental in pushing others in the Conference toward embracing bloggers as a way of getting their message out sans filter. Just this week, Kingston hosted a discussion with bloggers representing three high-traffic conservative sites.

A member of the class of '92, Kingston has generally been a conservative team player in the House, rising in the ranks on Approps to secure a seat on its Defense Subcommittee from which he can channel funds back to his military-heavy South Georgia district.

He was a fervent DeLay loyalist until the very end this year, backing the next-in-line Roy Blunt to take over as Maj Leader after DeLay threw in the towel. Kingston also made his own leadership ambitions known during the GOP's internal elections, saying that he would be a candidate for Conference chair should there be a contest for what is now Deborah Pryce's position.

And with Pryce eyeing the gavel at the Financial Services Committee in the next Congress, Kingston will no doubt seek to rise in the ranks.

Which is why his online efforts matter.

As the election of Maj Leader John Boehner in February proved, external pressures do affect political events as internal as party leadership races. This is not to say that the conservative bloggers who got behind Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) and went after Blunt decided that contest, but that the race did not occur in a vacuum and members knew very well just how fed up many conservatives were with the state of congressional GOP.

By becoming both a practitioner and supporter of the "New Media" now, Kingston establishes relationships and even friendships with those who could be active supporters (and lobbyists) for a future leadership bid.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

We hear..

The Democratic National Committee will announce it's raised more than $17 million this quarter, capping off three $5M+ months.

And they have a bit more than $9.2M on hand.

The party should significantly enhance its coffers in mid-April when ex-Pres. Clinton holds a fundraiser for the party (his first) on April 10 in New York City.

This week Hotline TV makes a run for the border and finally nabs an Emmy nod as it figures out the '08 winners/losers on immigration, does a little over/under on Iraq and Campaign '06, finds some trickles of water in that nearly empty glass for GOPers in '06, gives some end of the month Hotties and breezes thru the fastest two minutes on the web.

National Journal's Kirk Victor reports this week that the mood of Congressional Republicans dealing with immigration is tense and dour.

THe full article is available to National Journal subscribers, but the lead of the piece explains a

"Sen. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, chuckled before entering the hearing room where the Senate Judiciary Committee was about to continue its slugfest over immigration reform on March 27. DeWine predicted that tenacious Chairman Arlen Specter, R-Pa., would make good on his pledge to complete work that day so that the committee's sweeping measure could go to the Senate floor. But when DeWine was asked what his Ohio constituents think about the issue, he said it isn't a top concern. Not even second or third."It is certainly not the big issue," he said. "Jobs are the big issue. The war is certainly a topic. And health care. People do ask about immigration, and when it is in the news, like it is this week, it will certainly spike up."

DeWine thinks the odds are "less than 50-50" that the Senate and House will agree on a measure to send to Bush.

But, asks Victor, "if the odds are so long, is it worthwhile to expend an anticipated two weeks of precious Senate floor time during a truncated election year debating this combustible issue?" 'I won't comment on that," said DeWine, who is engaged in his own fierce re-election battle.That's certainly not a ringing endorsement for the decision by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., to stage a high-profile showdown on immigration. With his party struggling to retain control of Congress, why would Frist force the half-dozen or so GOP senators who are vulnerable in November's elections to cast votes on a red-hot issue -- especially when the upshot may be gridlock that yet again draws attention to the Republican-led government's shortcomings?"

There are a bunch of new poll numbers circulating in a bunch of states, thanks to the release of the latest online polls Zogby Int'l conducts for the Wall Street Journal's web site. We don't publish or acknowledge the existence of these numbers in any of our outlets because we are just not comfortable that online panels are reliable indicators.

It's a very new technology and we applaud Zogby for trying because some mix of phone calls, door-to-door and online will be used to create reliable polls in the future. Zogby is uniquely situated for the future, in fact, as he regularly conducts door-to-door surveys via his int'l arm, so he's gaining crucial experience when he moves toward using all three technologies for the same survey. (Note: Zogby does do a few calls in each state he polls online, but, frankly, it's not enough calls.)

But, to date, his online poll results are not just quirky, in some cases they don't make any sense. BTW, we have the same policy on Rasmussen (who uses automated callers) as well as his numbers sometimes show movement where none should have occurred. Until the track records of these surveys are proven over a long period of time, we'll continue to ignore these poll results when conducting our own analysis.

Finally, and here's the clincher for why we look at both Zogby online and Rasmussen with such a jaundiced eye: if either method of polling (online panels or automated callers) were consistently reliable, wouldn't professional campaign pollsters be using it? It's certainly cheaper [CHUCK TODD]

From Taegan Goddard's interview with Dave Mudcat Saunders: "Key takeaway: Since Mudcat was so important to Mark Warner's Virginia gubernatorial campaign in 2001, one might naturally assume he'd be backing Warner for president. However, it seemed to me that he actually thinks John Edwards is a better candidate and has a better chance. Very interesting."

DNC Chair Howard Dean has a new ally in his fight to convince donors to support his 50-state capacity building project.

In late Feb., Dean and DNC exec. dir. Tom McMahon traveled to Harlem and sat down with ex-Pres. Clinton, often said to be privately disparaging of Dean. But as Dean walked Clinton through the project and showed Clinton evidence that the party had found new pockets of Dems in states like MS and SC, Clinton became an instant convert.

He vowed to help Dean win the attention of donors. Clinton will do his first fundraiser for the DNC in April.

Clinton's support comes at precisely the right time for Dean. Party leaders and Cong. campaign strategists are nervously pressuring Dean to stop spending money to staff organizers in states and instead commit to transfer the bulk of the DNC's kitty to the DSCC and the DCCC.

At a tense meeting in Feb., Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid urged Dean to give to the Senate committee the same amount as the RNC was expected to transfer to the GOP's Senate committee. Reid argued that the DSCC's historically rare fundraising advantage could be wiped out with a single check from RNC Chair Ken Mehlman. If Republicans shuffled their cash, Reid said, the outcome of several critical Senate races might be jeopardized.

According to three sources familiar with the meeting, Dean said no. Of course, he said, the DNC will spend millions on the midterms. His argument (described by one source as "halting") was this: While the DSCC and DCCC's role is traditionally incumbent protection, Dean, on the other hand, was elected chair to tend to overall health of the party. And that includes his responsibility to hundreds of non-federal candidates as well. His investment in state parties, Dean promised Reid and House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi, would pay off and the benefits would accrue to Democrats at all levels.

A follow up meeting last week between Dean, Reid, Pelosi, and Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Rahm Emanuel was more smooth. A source familiar with the meeting said that the five agreed that the DNC would devote substantial resources to the ground game in battleground states [MARC AMBINDER]

Too many people handicapping the Dem field aren't paying attention to Ret. Gen. Wes Clark. The guy has a monster travel schedule on behalf of other Dems. He's still the to-go talking head for Democratic national security events. He's doing the party's national radio address this Saturday.

And now his podcast is right now the most popular political podcast in the nation.

The third installment of Clark's audiotaped thoughts ranks ahead of Sean Hannity . It's more listened-to than Sen. Barack Obama's audio doodlings. Than ex-Sen. John Edwards's podcast, too.

Through a spokesman, Clark tells us: "I am proud to be a part of the podcast evolution and pleased so many people care about being involved to the future of country by engaging in this medium."

NOTE: This post is updated above.

Will Howard Dean's Democratic National Committee be ready for the November elections? Party leaders and congressional campaign strategists are nervously pressuring Dean to stop spending money to staff organizers in states and instead commit to transfer the bulk of the DNC's kitty to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

At a tense meeting in February, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid urged Dean to give to the Senate committee the same amount as the Republican National Committee was expected to transfer to the GOP's Senate committee. Reid argued that the DSCC's historically rare fundraising advantage could be wiped out with a single check from RNC chairman Ken Mehlman. If Republicans shuffled their cash, Reid said, the outcome of several critical Senate races might be jeopardized.

According to three sources familiar with the meeting, Dean said no. Of course, he said, the DNC will spend millions on the midterms. His argument was this: While the DSCC and DCCC's role is rightfully incumbent protection, Dean, on the other hand, was elected chair to tend to overall health of the party. And that includes his responsibility to hundreds of non-federal candidates as well. His investment in state parties, Dean promised Reid and House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi, would pay off and the benefits would accrue to Democrats at all levels.

Though the DNC has raised a record amount of hard money for an off-year cycle, it trails the RNC by several car lengths. Overall, the GOP will have more to spend on its races in the fall as the DNC has sent much of its money to state counterparts. (It's not as if the money is going into a hole. The DNC organizers are using it to find new voters and to update voter files and prepare coordinated campaigns for 2006.)

Both Dean's admirers and his critics blame the money gap on the priorities of major donors, who are race-and-cycle centric. And Dean, in the words of one of his friends, "never sucks up to donors" and is "clinical" when he discusses politics with them.

A new DNC hire -- finance director Carl Chidlow -- was brought aboard to help bridge the two cultures. Chidlow was deputy finance director for Sen. John Kerry's record-setting presidential bid and considered one of the party's best professional fundraisers.

A friend says Chidlow decided to accept Dean's job offer after finding evidence that Dean truly was committed to competing everywhere. One of Chidlow's prime tasks today: to evangelize Dean's state-based efforts to major donors.

And Dean has one supremely important new ally who, when he goes public, will almost certainly help with donors. In late February, Dean traveled to Harlem and sat down with former President Bill Clinton, often said to be privately disparaging of Dean.

But as Dean walked Clinton through his 50-state capacity-building project, Clinton became a convert. He vowed to help Dean win the attention of donors. [MARC AMBINDER]

Apparently "Earl" had to die so we decided to stick to cable.

Lots of coverage of Jill Carroll's release. But there were also lots of pols on last night:

House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi was on "NewsHour." She said she supports the McCain-Kennedy-Gutierrez immigration bill. On the Dem nat'l security plan: "You have President Bush saying: Stay the course, and I'll leave it up to a future president to clean up my mess behind me. And you have the Democrats saying: 2006 must be a year of transition" (PBS, 3/30).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was on "Situation Room" and "Hannity & Colmes." He talked about immigration and Iraq and then was asked about speaking at Liberty Univ. McCain: "I speak to between three and five colleges and universities around the country for commencement every year. The same message this year. I'm speaking at a new school in New York and Ohio State University, as well." More: "The Reverend Falwell came to see me. We had a good conversation. There are areas we're in agreement on, and I'm sure there are areas that we're in disagreement on. And he asked me to speak at his commencement. I was glad to do it" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/30).

Asked if he gets top billing on the immigration bill, McCain: "Yes, whether I want it or not" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 3/30).

Newt Gingrich was also on "Hannity & Colmes," where he talked about his Time interview: "Republicans have to be the party of reform, because we're the people who pay for pork. We're not the people who get excited when it's delivered. And so I think that we're in a very delicate period right now where the Republican Party has to recapture a focus on being a reform party. And I was trying to be quite clear. I have every reason to believe we can win this fall, but I think it does require real change. And not just doing more of the same, but real change" (FNC, 3/30).

SOMEONE ISN'T GOING TO GET INVITED TO DAVOS

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) was on "Hardball," talking about the situation in Iraq and immigration. Biden, speaking in English: "I can't think of a country that has two languages as their accepted languages, that is doing all that well, including Switzerland and/or Canada" (MSNBC, 3/30).

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) was on CNBC's "Street Signs" talking about foreign investment in U.S. companies.

JUST IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING ...

Lou Dobbs is still in Cancun and still talking about immigration. [EMILY GOODIN]

Around this time in the election cycle, presidential candidates always answer the '08 questions with something like, "I'll decide after the midterms," or "Never look past the next election." They typically keep their distance from the '08 label to keep the press pumping on their potential candidacy.

Not Gov. Bill Richardson. The DGA head took a less subtle approach in the most recent fundraising email sent out on the Democratic Governor's Association listserv:

The slogan, "I won't wait for '08...neither should you," is part of the DGA's midterm appeal to raise money for 36 Governor's races across the country. The idea is supporters shouldn't wait for a Presidential election and instead donate to Governors this year. But while the message is from the DGA, the picture says a thousand words about Richardson [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ].

After just three installments of General Wes Clark’s “ClarkCast” has leapfrogged over more established podcasts to rest at #4 on the Apple iTunes political podcast directory of the most subscribed-to podcasts. General Clark, “The podcast technology is helping people close the gap between the time they have for public affairs and current events the time they want for them. I am proud to be a part of the podcast evolution and pleased so many people care about being involved to the future of country by engaging in this medium.”

Luntz Maslansky Strategic Research presented its findings on the '08 Dem field this a.m. to reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast.

Their focus groups tested Dem primary voters in NH and IA. We don't know the size/demographic balance, etc., so don't read too much into the conclusions. (And don't ever confuse focus groups with polls -- we'll let Mark Blumenthal elaborate, if he wants to.)

What do Dems want? Per The Luntz interpretation of said focus groups: "When all is said and done, the Democratic nominee will be the person they believe has the best handle on the future and who can best bring about the change and reform they are desperately seeking." And "perhaps most importantly, they want the anti-Bush" who is not a "Bush basher." The Dems "don't want a grouchy, accusatory, finger-pointing yeller. They want someone smart but with good common sense, a leader with new ideas who believes and practices accountability."

The survey offers "10 Commandments For Democrats." They include: 1. Don't "feel my pain" -- "give me something to alleviate it. 3. Dems "don't want to hear about your church" in the primary. If they "really cared," they'd be Republicans. 6. "Be a Deficit Democrat. Every time a Democratic candidate talked about ending wasteful spending and tackling the deficit, the dials spiked up, as did the approval."

The survey also probed for responses about candidates.

Sen. Hillary Clinton's Senate re-election campaign has just signed up another heavy-hitter.

Two sources close to the campaign confirm that Judith Litchman, an advocate for women and family legislation in Washington for decades, will join the campaign as a senior adviser.

Ann Lewis, the campaign Comm. Dir., e-mailed allies today with the news. Lewis: "I am so pleased to be able to tell you that Judy Lichtman will be joining Friends of Hillary as a Senior Advisor. Judy will be lending her expertise on work-family issues, which are so important to New York families, and her experience in working for social change, to the campaign."

Litchman is currently a senior adviser at the National Partnership for Women and Families. During the Clinton administration, she was often called one of the most influential Washington lobbyists/lawyers. She had the ear of both Pres. and Hillary Clinton. Lewis, in her e-mail, calls Litchman "the architect of the Family and Medical Leave Act, which has been relied on by more than 50 million women and men since it was enacted in 1993." [MARC AMBINDER]

Karl Rove, President Bush's chief political adviser, cautioned other White House aides in the summer of 2003 that Bush's 2004 re-election prospects would be severely damaged if it was publicly disclosed that he had been personally warned that a key rationale for going to war had been challenged within the administration. Rove expressed his concerns shortly after an informal review of classified government records by then-Deputy National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley determined that Bush had been specifically advised that claims he later made in his 2003 State of the Union address -- that Iraq was procuring high-strength aluminum tubes to build a nuclear weapon -- might not be true, according to government records and interviews.

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Attention Republican presidential candidates: add West Virginia to the calendar of early primary states for 2008 -- be prepared to start campaigning there early. State Republicans will select their 18 at-large delegates by participating in a multi-step process that begins in June of 2007 and ends in May of 2008. Most of the voting takes place online. In all likelihood, it'll vastly enhance West Virginia's role in the presidential nominating process for Republicans.

"They're going to have to get in there and get local people to tart supporting it," says state GOP chair Robin Capehart.

Beginning in Sept. of '07, Republicans will sign up online and receive from the state a username and password. (The names will be checked and rechecked and verified, Capehart said.) Then, between 11/1 and 11/30 of '07, those GOPers who want to be delegates to their county conventions will register with the state party.

Prospective presidential candidates must file with the WV SoS office in Dec. of '07 and also file a slate of delegates. Between 1/1 and 1/14 of 2008, Republicans will log on to the state party website and enter into their names and passwords. There, they'll be presented with a ballot listing their county's convention delegate choices. Each county gets to send one delegate per 1,000 residents (and an extra delegate for every four if the county went for Bush in '04).

Repbublicans not online can vote in person. Capehart: "The rules allow for every county to have a one-day convention. In these rural counties, you would basically go to a designated place, and there would be computers set up. Or they can do it by paper ballots."

Aside from the delegates chosen by GOPers in counties, members of the county executive committees, the state legislators and other special designees automatically become delegates -- so the candidates will need to recruit them as well. On 2/5, the day the window to select delegates for the Republican National Convention opens, WV GOPers will choose the 18 delegates from the hundreds selected at the country level. The vote that day is winner-take all. In a majority isn't produced in the first round of balloting, the candidates with the three highest vote totals proceed to a second round; if a majority isn't produced during the second round, then the top two candidates face off. Whoever wins a majority will see his or her delegate slate certified by the state party.

According to the rules: "National Delegates designated as At-Large shall be elected at the State Presidential Convention by a roll call vote of the counties by reference to the Presidential Candidate." That means that potential presidential candidates need to get started early. In order to have a chance to win, they need to convince potential county-level delegates to identify with their candidacy by November 30. (The county-level delegates don't have to be "McCain" delegates or "Romney" delegates, but if they are, voters will be able to choose them as McCain delegates or Romney delegates.) BTW: The state will select nine additional congressional district delegates (three per CD) in May. Once again, the presidential candidates will have to submit a slate of delegates to the Secretary of State in order to win them.

Capehart said he has consulted with internet security experts and has run his plan by the Republican National Committee. He said there are safeguards in place to protect against tampering and system failure.

Who has an edge in West Virginia? Sen. George Allen (R-VA) has neighboring state appeal, but Capehart said WV is "so regionalized" that outside the counties that border Virginia, it's an open field. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), he said, is popular in West Virginia's panhandle (it's in the Pittsburgh, PA market). And Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is, to Capehart's recollection, the only potential candidate who has visited the state in recent years. [MARC AMBINDER]

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

After making in-roads into Toledo-based Lucas Co., GOPers suffered major set-backs when coin dealer Tom Noe was indicted for his role in both statewide and federal probes. In fact, GOPers around the state are in trouble, and not just thanks to Noe or disgraced Gov. Bob Taft (R). A number of GOPers laughed when we read them names of some of our '03 stars and told us that we needed a new list. Dems are giddy with anticipation for the election, and they seem to think they've got the candidates to pull out some big wins. Whether they follow through remains to be seen. [REID WILSON]

In case you were watching the "George Lopez Show," we were watching the cable news nets:

"Special Report" led with the U.N.'s statement on Iran and its nuclear program. And on the day Jack Abramoff was sentenced, the Senate passed lobbyist reform, causing FNC's Major Garrett to remark: "There's no self-congratulation quite like senatorial self-congratulation."

Then Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) stopped by to talk about immigration. Richardson: "For the Republican Party, they run the risk, if they push this extreme border security measure, that pass the House with the making a felony and the wall, that will erode the little increase they've had in support among Hispanic voters" (FNC, 3/29).

"Situation Room" also led with the U.N.'s statement on Iran. Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) was on to talk about immigration: "It's not going to be easy. Whenever you get the issues on immigration, it's highly volatile, like civil rights issues, but this is something that is in the immediate interest of our country and the long term interest of our nation" (CNN, 3/29).

Lou Dobbs was in Cancun and his show was all about immigration. And Anderson Cooper anchored "AC 360" from Nogales, AZ, to talk about border security.

"Hardball" wondered if Pres. Bush's is now "paying attention to the paper, the polls and the pundits." MSNBC's David Shuster: "The president himself now seems to understand that his low approval numbers carry an impact, and that his long indifference to Washington's political and media culture, may now have to be pushed aside."

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) was a guest and we learned that he calls Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "commodore." And his mother came to this country (legally) from Tunisia, North Africa. MSNBC's Chris Matthews: "So you're part Arab?" Allen: "No, she's Italian, French and a little Spanish." More from Allen: "She speaks Arabic, as well as French and Italian."

And then Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) was on and called for the WH to bring in more staffers. Lott: "They should bring in some new experienced hands in a variety of places. I suggested Slade Gorton would be an excellent counselor, policy adviser." Matthews: "He's one of your singers, isn't he?" Lott: "No, Slade can't even carry a tune" (MSNBC, 3/29).

Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) was on "Countdown" to talk about the '06 election: "It will be incumbent upon us candidates for Senate, for Congress, all across the country, to lay out a positive and constructive set of criticisms of what this administration has tried to do, or criticisms of what they have done, and how they have not measured up to what they wanted to measure up to" (MSNBC, 3/29).

"O'Reilly Factor" had on Barbra Streisand biographer Christopher Andersen. FNC's Bill O'Reilly was strongly defensive of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) as he questioned Anderson about reports HRC was upset after Streisand spent the night at the WH. Here are some of his questions to Anderson:

O'Reilly: "The senator is not on the record anywhere as saying she was annoyed by Streisand's appearance while she was away with her father, correct?"

More from O'Reilly: "So you're relying on people who told you this? ... I'm worried that anybody can tell you anything to get even with anybody."

O'Reilly: "Rumors about President Clinton are rife all over the place. I mean, the guy would be in a jar if we believe all the rumors about them. And I don't know how fair it is to imply that he had an affair with this woman, Barbra Streisand. I don't know if that's fair" (FNC, 3/29). [EMILY GOODIN]

Gov. Mitt Romney stopped in DC this afternoon after making good on his NFL bet last night in Denver. He gave a power point presentation on education to a standing room only crowd at the American Enterprise Institute. In what he called the "civil rights issue of our time," the Massachusetts Republican laid out a series of education initiatives that he said were effective in his state, emphasizing parental involvement (including teaching abstinence education) and measuring improvement through testing).

Romney touted his state's high marks for both English and math, charter schools and teacher incentives. Taking a page right out from Bush's SOTU playbook, Romney added that "being number one in American doesn't mean you're number one in the world." However he heavily emphasized bi-partisanship in the issue, saying though Dems have considered education a blue issue in the past it really goes "across party lines."

When asked by reporters about exiting Bush CoS Andy Card, Romney said he chatted with the MA native just yesterday regarding his future plans. Though he welcomes him to MA politics ("I don't think Sen. Kennedy has an opponent..."), he knows Card is looking forward to a long rest. Might be time for Andy to take up residence in Nantucket...
[SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ].

As first reported in Hotline's Last Call!:

Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) punched a U.S. Capitol Police officer today after he mistakenly pursued her for failing to pass through a metal detector.

Members are not required to pass through metal detectors and the officer, manning a position at Longworth House Office Building, apparently did not recognize McKinney and didn't see her Member pin.

The officer called out "Ma'am, Ma'am," in an attempt to stop her.

When the officer caught up to McKinney, he grabbed her by the arm.

McKinney pulled her arm away, swung around, cell phone in hand, and punched the officer square in the chest, according to the witness.

McKinney's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Does the conservative base love Sen. Sam Brownback? Convention wisdom says -- yeah. But here's one major obstacle: he's not a hardliner on immigration reform. He favors a guest worker program.

Conservative activists are in an e-mail frenzy over Brownback's vote in favor of adding a guest working provision to the Senate Judiciary Committee's mark-up of a comprehensive immigration bill.

"THIS IS AN ALL POINTS BULLETIN," shouts an e-mail from Oklahoma Republican Assembly Pres. Tim Pope.

"Be on the lookout for any self-respecting conservative Republican who is interested in opposing the 'open door' immigration policy being shoved through the United States Senate. US Senator Sam Brownback -- R?' Kansas sided with the Democrats on the Judiciary committee and helped them water down the tough anti-illegal immigration bill when it hit their committee. It is now, basically, an amnesty bill for those who have snubbed their collective noses at our American law while they say they have to come here to make a living for their family."

Pope urges conservatives to protest Brownback's appearance at an OK GOP fundraiser in 4/18.

Writes Pope: "We must let State GOP Chairman Gary Jones know that this type of behavior should not be rewarded with a special appearance in front of our party faithful -- since the Senator has trouble understanding what that really means."

Pope says he'll organize a protest if Brownback shows up.

We're another month closer to Election Day 2006 and things continue to look bad for the incumbent party. But in the spirit of trying to find good news in a sea of bad, there's a bright side that deserves a mention for the GOP. Iraq, of course, is conspicuously absent.

While things are getting worse for Republicans on the federal level, due in large part to Iraq, developments in some key governor's races indicate it's possible 2006 could mirror 2002. During the last midterm cycle, Democrats did poorly in federal races but made some significant gains on the state level, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arizona and Wyoming. [CHUCK TODD]

Read On The Trail

Not to pick on George Allen... but the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is joyfully distributing a piece of video wherein Allen joshingly tells an Iowa audience that he wishes he was born in Iowa.

(He was born in California although his parents, er, created him, in Sioux City.)

(Click the play button on the video above or right-click here and select Save As to download the video. Windows Media version only available at this time.)

Looks like Senator Allen is not only bored with the Senate, he's also bored with the entire Commonwealth of Virginia

While waiting for Sen. Sam Brownback to speak at the War on Christians Conference in [the heart of Babylon] Washington today, we came across another presidential candidate who hopes he can seed his '08 aspirations among Christian conservatives.

John Cox has already been to Iowa. He went to New Hampshire, generating more coverage than Sen. Chuck Hagel. He already has an e-mail list. A campaign manager with an Alan Keyes pedigree. A website with comparisons to fellow IL'er Abe Lincoln. A platform. And even a base.

Who?

He was born and raised in Chicago, IL (on the South Side, to boot -- before the renaissance), the son of a letter carrier and a teacher. He made his money as a lawyer and a venture capitalist. He is somewhat well-known to Republicans in Chicago and even ran for Senate in 2002 -- he got a fifth of the vote in the GOP primary.

Craig Bergman is Cox's campaign manager. His opening argument, aimed at those who wonder, is that because Cook County has "more people than Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire combined," Cox is better known than, say, Tom Vilsack, Iowa's governor.

That's a base of 2 million, easy, he says. (Cook County has about 5.4 million residents; IA, NH and SC have at least 8 million between them.)

The strategy from here on out is conventional for an unconventional candidate. Bergman scours donor lists in early primary states on the web and Cox pays to send them postcards highlighting his next appearances.

He's headed to South Carolina next week. How is he planning? Bergman bends down behind a desk and pulls out a sheaf of paper. "Right here," he says, pointing to it. "We get the whole map from Mapquest and then I figure out the distances [between cities]. Then we say, "John would come to come to your town." And the invariable response is "who??" [With an extra question mark!]

That's an opening if Bergman ever saw one.

Cox is pro-life. ("The only candidate in the race who is totally pro-life," Bergman claims. He's an NRA member. He's against same-sex marriage and civil unions. He's against government regulation. On trade, he uses the "free and fair" formulation, which suggests he's a mite more protectionist than the conservative consensus.

So -- what distinguishes him from the field? "The rest of the field are career politicians," says Bergman. Cox spent a small part of his late twenties on a Glenview, IL school board. That's the extent of his elected experience.

Cox is on the conservative conference and caucus circuit. He was at CPAC in February; he's been to a dozen county caucuses in Iowa and will return there in April.

Bergman has a scoop: he says Cox will kick off his campaign officially on April 17 in front of the IRS building in Washington. There, he'll call for a complete abolition of the income tax. [MARC AMBINDER]

We read with interest that Sen. John McCain was considering a vote in favor of the Federal Marriage Amendment to the constitution. Sen. Bill Frist will call the measure to the Senate floor in June.

But in today's Note, we learn from the intrepid Teddy Davis, who managed to somehow catch up to Rev. Jerry Falwell, that McCain "is not pushing for a federal constitutional ban on gay marriage at this time. Instead, McCain 'reconfirmed' to Falwell during a recent telephone conversation that he would support a federal marriage amendment if the federal courts were to strike down state constitutional bans on gay marriage (like the one McCain is currently backing in his home state of Arizona). 'I think he is genuinely a state's righter and so am I,' Falwell told ABC News."

For those who watched too much "Scrubs" and not enough of cable news.

Most of the shows led with Andy Card's resignation -- although Lou Dobbs still led with immigration. A lot of ex-WH CoSes made appearances, giving their takes on Card and new CoS Josh Bolton.

Some quick ledes and takes:

MSNBC's Stewart: "If you want fries with that shakeup, well, you're only going to get the 'taters" ("Countdown," 3/28).

CNN's Malveaux: "The big question remains whether or not his departure will help rejuvenate President Bush's agenda. Some GOP strategists are skeptical -- one of them telling me that a White House staff change will not bring victory in Iraq any time sooner" ("AC 360," 3/28).

FNC's Cameron: "On major domestic and foreign policy issues, the president has made it clear he has no intention of changing course. And while he recognizes public misgivings, the president argues that what he really needs to do is better explain his decisions and policies, not change them" ("Special Report," 3/28).

CNN's J. King: "I talked to a very senior Republican strategist very close to this White House, and he called this replacing Tweedle-Dee with Tweedle-Dum" ("AC 360," 3/28).

DEMS SAY ...

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) got out the Dem response in a "Situation Room" appearance: "I don't think he comes to this job with a great set of credentials. But I want to give him a chance. You know, the bottom line is, if the president of the United States is going to lead this country in a new direction, which they are begging for, then he needs a new approach, a new team, maybe a new set of political values" (CNN, 3/26).

MORE TO COME?

CNN also ran an interview Pres. Bush gave to CNN en Espanol's Juan Carlos Lopez. Most of the interview was about the upcoming summit in Cancun (no word if Bush will party at Senor Frogs with Lou Dobbs) but he was asked if there were more staff changes coming, Bush: "Josh has just begun to take a look at the White House structure. And I haven't had a chance to talk to him about the future yet. But right now I'm honoring and celebrating the service of Andy Card" ("Situation Room," 3/28).

NBC's Gregory: "The president has been very clear that Josh Bolten will have a free hand, meaning that other changes may come" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/28).

Weekly Standard's Kristol: "This is the first of a series of changes. And I think we could end up with a much more combative and aggressive administration than we've had in the last few months" ("Special Report," FNC, 3/28).

Pat Buchanan: "I have to think ... that it's probably the beginning of a lot of changes in the White House and maybe one or two in the cabinet. I think the president has clearly got the message" ("Situation," MSNBC, 3/28).

HEY '08ers, IT PAYS TO HAVE AN ISSUE

And Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) was on "Situation Room," "Hannity & Colmes" and "The Situation" to talk about immigration. [EMILY GOODIN]

From last Friday's Hotline:

There's a world out there where Pres. Bush can do no wrong. He's viewed favorably by nearly everyone, his approval rating is 100% and he'd win a third term, if possible, without breaking a sweat.

This is Bush's base (approx. 45% of the entire GOP). According to the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, they're older (more than half are over 55 which translates into being "very likely" midterm voters), go to church weekly, and almost all of them are white. They oppose abortion rights, and, like VP Cheney himself, they listen to Rush and O'Reilly. And while DC is abuzz with talk that the faithful are weary and fractured, the poll shows they'll be a force at the ballot box.

In '08, they're not looking for a renegade, but someone who more fits the Bush. They're not huge fans of McCain, who leads the list of GOPers they'd never support. Among Bush's base, McCain trails
Giuliani in '08 matchups.

Also, note how a plurality of all GOPers think Bush has been a worse president than Reagan. But among the most die-hard Bushies, most think he's been as good or better. [AOIFE MCCARHTY]

Republican pollster Jan van Lohuizen, in a memo written for RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, warns that if members of Congress try to drive a wedge between themselves and Pres. Bush, it'd be akin to adding weight to an anchor. GOpers are "W Brand Republicans" whether they like it or not. And van Louhizen, who has polled (often secretly) for the Bush White House under the RNC aegis for years, is worried about low turnout.

Time Magazine first reported on the memo this weekend, but the full text is below.

---------------
Memorandum

To: Ken Mehlman
From: Jan van Lohuizen
Date: March 3, 2006
Re: Bush -- Congressional Republicans

Per our conversation, we took another look at the way voters, Republicans specifically, link President Bush and Republicans in the House and the Senate. There are several points worth making:

1. President Bush continues to have the strong loyal support of Republican voters. Despite slippage in approval ratings among all voters, the President's job approval among Republicans continues to be very high. Most members will be elected with between 80% and 100% of their support coming from Republicans. I don't see that Republicans driving a wedge between themselves and the President is a good election strategy.

Dick Wadhams, the chief of staff for Sen. George Allen (R-VA) will take a leave of absence from Allen's congressional office to manage his tougher-than-expected re-election campaign in Virginia.

He'll start on 4/10.

Allen faces Democrats Harris Miller (D), a lobbyist, and James Webb, a former Republican and Navy Secretary. Both challengers are expected to raise millions. Allen defeated ex-VA Gov. Charles Robb (D) in 2000.

Wadhams, touted as "Karl Rove's Heir Apparent" by too many publications to list, is a tough and experienced veteran of Senate races. He ran now-Sen. John Thune's successful bid to kick out Sen. Tom Daschle. Before that, he rescued Sen. Wayne Allard in CO. Wadhams joined Allen shortly after the '04 election to much fanfare about his political prowess.

He replaced Allen's long-time chief of staff Jay Timmons, now at the National Association of Manufacturers.

Also in Allen's inner circle: ex-RNC chairman Ed Gillespie, who is his PAC treasurer, and Chris LaCivita, Allen's top nuts-and-bolts strategist.

Jason Miller, who was tending Allen's campaign, left late last year to manage SC Gov. Mark Sanford's re-election.

No word yet on Wadhams's temporary replacement.

Two giants of American politics and government -- both Republicans -- have died.

Here is how Lyn Nofziger described himself on his website. "If you're looking for a female exhibitionist with a digital camera you've come to the wrong place."

"I am a Californian, a World War II army veteran, a former newspaperman, a politician and the author of four published Western novels. ... I served in Ronald Reagan's governor's office and White House and in Richard Nixon's White House. I have run and participated in numerous political campaigns, including five for president, and have won some and lost some. Once I even worked at the Republican National Committee. I am a Republican because I believe that freedom is more important than government-provided security. Sometimes I wish I were a Democrat because Democrats seem to have more fun. At other times I wish I were a Libertarian because Republicans are too much like Democrats."

Darren Grubb, vice president of federal relations at Bryan Cave Strategies, tells us he met Nofsifger late in life, "though not early enough in mine."

Writes Grubb: "In all of time spent with Lyn, I always took away far more than I ever had capacity to reciprocate. His wisdom and insights into matters of politics and personalities and human relationships were of more than great interest to me, they were of great guidance."

At least politically speaking.

The judge tasked with hearing Comp/GOV candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn's (I) ballot access lawsuit has recused himself from the case.

Not only are he and his wife friends with Scott and Mark's mom, but Judge and Mrs. Sam Sparks also signed the petition to get Strayhorn on the ballot.

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

No one understands ND. Just 2 of 10 state constitutional officers are Dems and GOPers have held the Gov's mansion since '92. GOPers outnumber Dems more than 2-1 in the state legislature. And yet the delegation to DC is made up of nothing but Dems? GOPers recognize the challenge of beating politicians as popular as Sens. Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad and Rep. Earl Pomeroy, especially when a top-tier candidate like Gov. John Hoeven (R) takes a pass on the race. But GOPers know that, once the incumbents step down, their party would be the front-runners to retake the seats. And they've already started paying attention to who those front-runners would be. [REID WILSON]

Powerline's Hinderaker : "I doubt that the change will make any difference, except maybe cosmetically, but it may satisfy some of those who have been demanding "change" in the administration." He titles his post "Yawn."

The directors at Red State are similarly nonplussed but a bit more hopeful. "Andy Card has served the President well for more than five years. We cannot, however, say that he has served conservatives or the Republican party well. He is, among other things, fingered as the man behind the Harriet Miers nomination that caused a fracture in the base and emboldened conservatives to fight the President. He also deserves some blame for the mishandling of the Dubai Ports Deal. Rumored for a month, it is about time Mr. Card resigned. We are looking forward to Mr. Bolten's tenure in the office of White House Chief of Staff. Mr. Bolten has been in the Office of Management and Budget where he has privately been a reasonable voice willing to control spending. We have been disappointed with the budget process as led by the White House, but we understand that Mr. Bolten favors more restraints and executive action to control and cut spending than Mr. Card ever did. The President appears to have listened to those who think the White House needs new blood and new ideas. Mr. Bolten has been a forward thinker and we welcome him to the job. While the President suffers from lame duck syndrome and a stagnant administration at present, we should remember that at this point in his administration, Reagan was the same way. He then picked a new Chief of Staff, turned a corner, and revitalized his Presidency. We hope for the same from President Bush."

The Wonkette boys publish a picture of Bolten with his Harley and note that he was at the "front lines" of the Social Security fight in '05.

The Carpetbagger writes that "part of the underlying message Republicans had sent the president about getting rid of Card was bringing in someone who could offer Bush new ideas and a different approach to governing. Bolten is another Bush insider, who'll likely keep the White House moving in the same direction its been going." More Carpetbagger: "Bolten has sold reckless tax cuts as fiscal responsibility, defended absurd budget tricks as sensible governing, argued falsely that tax cuts can pay for themselves, made demonstrably-false claims about the budget deficit, and embraced misleading scare tactics to promote privatization of Social Security. Bolten also made quite an impression with a memo last year arguing that the administration could ignore legal restrictions and spend as much as it pleases on fake news segments and pundit payola."

What you missed on the chat shows...

"Hardball" led off with a David Shuster piece on how the admin is dealing with Iraq in light of the latest bombings and the British memo on the war's origins: "The latest revelation could further damage the president politically and it might make it even tougher for the public to believe what the people who took us into Iraq say about the situation there now."

After Shuster's piece aired, author Philippe Sands, ex-Clinton CoS John Podesta, and Pat Buchanan discussed the British memo. Other pundits on the show were USA Today's Page, Congressional Quarterly's Crawford and National Journal's Cook. Besides the British memo and the situation in Iraq, Hillary Clinton was also discussed.

Podesta was also in the "Situation Room" along with ex-Rep. J.C. Watts and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). Cornyn: "A third of my constituents are Hispanics. And they don't want amnesty, because they believe that those who have played by the rules, who have come to the country legally, shouldn't have to compete with workers who have violated our immigration laws by pressing their wages down or competing for those jobs." [EMILY GOODIN]

Per the AP, Andy Card, the only CoS Pres Bush has had in 5+ years, has resigned.

OMB Director Josh Bolten is to take over as the top WH aide.

WH presser set for 8:30

UPDATE: A little bit of tick-tock now up

Newark Mayor Sharpe James (D) abruptly ended his campaign for re-election today.

From the Times:

"Mr. James, who is also a state senator, said in his letter that he was leaving because he was "an opponent of dual office holding" and wanted to focus on state issues. He denied that age was an issue, despite having recently turned 70. And he emphasized that if he had stayed in race, he would have won because New Jersey's largest city is better off now than in 1986, when he was first elected."

...And nowhere more so than at the epicenter of the political epicenter.

We speak of Capitol Hill, where as we type this there are around 35 protestors carrying signs and chanting rhymes on the sidewalk in front of Sen. Mary Landrieu's (D) well-appointed rowhouse; a home on a block of E. Capitol St which, to put it mildly, does not see political protests every day.

What, you ask, would such a group be doing on a Monday night outside of the home of a Dem Senator from Katrina-scarred Louisiana? Turns out "Mary," as the group casually chanted her name, is an active supporter of charter schools both here and back home on the bayou.

The disparate coalition of Yuppie moms, longtime DC activists, and youthful hipsters assembled for the dusk rally contend that charter schools take away needed resources from traditional public schools. And, to add insult to injury, Landrieu has backed language included in Senate legislation to directly aid charter schools in the District, they said. Or, as one chant demanded more succinctly, "Meddling Mary, respect home rule!"

But why take their case to Landrieu's private residence (which was dark and assumedly empty)? Because the group wanted to "disturb her peace and privacy just as she has come into our homes and meddled in our private affairs," said one metaphorically-speaking and very on-message local mother.

Best of all, the group had hand-out's of their lyrical protest rhymes (two different versions), a flyer for an upcoming meeting, a press release touting the rally with bulleted bio's of the speakers on the back and even a clipboard'ed press sign-in sheet.

To paraphrase Cindy Adams, "Only in DC, kiddies, only in DC."

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) wants to debate his three primary opponents, including state sen. Bob Keenan.

Burns, in a letter, said "Montana voters should have the opportunity to hear all voices in this debate. I look forward to talking about issues like taxes, healthcare and gun rights that are important to all Montanans."

BTW: Here's what Pres. Bush said of Burns at a DC fundraiser tonight: " I kind of like being on the same platform as Senator Burns because he makes me sound like Shakespeare. (Laughter.) I like a plain-talking fellow. The good thing about Conrad Burns is you know where he stands. That's why the people of Montana respect him and they like him. And I'm here to urge the good people of the state of Montana to send him back to the United States Senate. (Applause.)"

"But right before we came on, the Senator wanted me to make sure I understood how brilliant and beautiful his granddaughter Ella is. That says something about the man. He's got his priorities straight. He cares deeply about his family. He understands the importance of family in our society. And I appreciate your priorities, Senator."

"By the way, he also loves Montana. Every time I see him he says, I want you to remember the great state of Montana. He cares deeply about the people there and he knows the state about as well as anybody could possibly know it. He's traveled the state. He tells people what's on his mind. He is -- he's a down-to-earth guy. And the people of Montana have got to understand he can get some things done here in Washington, D.C. No, there's a lot of eloquent folks in this town, but it's sometimes short of doers and people who can accomplish some things. I'm here because Senator Burns can get some things done for the good of the people of Montana and the people of the United States of America. (Applause.) "

Who's the fairest friend of the taxpayer among the '08 candidates? The right-leaning National Taxpayers Union is out with its 2008 presidential scorecard.

For GOPers, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) get an "A" with a 78% score; Sen. Chuck Hagel gets an "A" with a 76% score. Sens. Frist, Brownback and Allen all merit B+ ratings with scores in the mid seventies. The Democrat scoring the best: Sen. Russ Feingold, who gets a rating of 20, which translate to a "D." Every other Dem gets an "F".

The NTU scores every single roll call vote and weights each vote to reflect the degree to which that vote comports with the NTU's view of the world.

BTW: We hear that the Arkansas Republican Assembly, the state affiliate of a national group of movement conservative activists, is distributing information on Gov. Mike Huckabee's tax record. They accuse him of raising taxes at least five times.

And Andy Roth, dir. of federal affairs at the Club for Growth, e-mails us:

"I've been screaming at the top of my lungs at the Club for Growth blog about Huckabee's poor record on taxes while conservatives have been extremely nice to him. Here are some previous posts:

First Post:
Second Post:
Third Post:

"Just so you know, if Huckabee continues to get good press, I'm only going to get louder. Republicans shouldn''t be [electing] a tax hiker as president."

It's called Tomorrow. Scharzenegger himself does not speak to camera; the narrator uses the royal "we" to describe the good news about California.

From the campaign: "The ad highlights Governor Schwarzenegger's accomplishments, including policies that reduced the state's deficit and created over 500,000 new jobs. The ad will run in selected local markets.:

VOICE OVER:

"Tomorrow is going to be a little better than today for Californians ...

Because we've pulled our state back from the brink of bankruptcy.
We've dramatically reduced the state's deficit
Cut the unfair car tax ...
Reformed the workers' comp system ...
And created 500,000 new jobs."

"Governor Schwarzenegger's leadership is making California work again."

According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, ex-Paul Hackett spokesman Karl Frisch has landed a gig with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

He'll be deputy to comm. dir. Phil Singer.

The Plain Dealer notes that Frisch once refered to opponent Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) as "more of the same."

Frisch told the newspaper: "I'll be working my tail off to get all of our Democratic candidates elected to the U.S. Senate, including Sherrod Brown. Ohio needs him in the Senate."

The DSCC and the two Dems wanting to oust Sen. George Allen (R-VA) are pouncing on an article in the New York Times that describes Allen as "bored" with the Senate.

The article, written by congressional correspondent Sheryl Gay Stolberg, characterizes the former VA governor/potential presidential candidate as somewhat fed up with the pace of the Senate and anxious to get his hands dirtier.

She quotes Allen as saying he "made more decisions in half a day as governor than you can make in a whole week in the Senate. And she writes that he "lamented about being in the Senate, 'It's too slow for me.'"

The lede of the story, though, contains a juicy ajdective that is tailor-made for his opponents to revel in, especially in a race where the attention-grabbing charges by said opponent(s) [so far] involve the perception that Allen has his eye on a bigger prize.

Allen, Stolberg writes, "makes little secret that he is bored with life in the Senate."

The DSCC released a tongue-in-cheek letter urging outgoing NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue to consider hiring the football-crazy Allen. Candidate Harris Miller (D) urged Allen to resign.

Trouble is -- Allen apparently never told Stolberg he was bored.

That's her interpretation of his remarks.

The Democrats are misrepresenting what Senator Allen said to the New York Times," says Allen's chief of staff, Dick Wadhams. "Senator Allen has expressed often his frustration with how slow the Senate moves and the obstructionism that has dominated the body for several years but he has not said he was "bored" with the Senate."

Wadhams says he has assurances from Stolberg that she never heard Allen refer to himself as "bored."

The business of two Dem challengers in FL is business -- literally.

The DCCC is hoping their non-political backgrounds provide a compelling narrative against the incumbents' ties to GOP leaders. With high numbers of seniors in both CDs, economic issues will likely drive both campaigns:

DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel campaigned with Tim Mahoney (D) late last week to attack GOP support for the prescription drug benefit. Emanuel recruited Mahoney last summer, impressed with his entrepreneurial background and ability to self-finance. Mahoney touts his fiscal conservatism, and told House Race Hotline he'd be a DLC-type Dem. But he also said he'd criticize Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL 16) for supporting recent free-trade agreements, including CAFTA.

Marketing consultant Charlie Stuart (D) doesn't have the same ability to self-fund as Mahoney. But he thinks Rep. Ric Keller's (R-FL 08) social conservatism will repel voters in the Orlando-based district and help him win a nat'l wave election.

The growing number of (non-Cuban) Hispanics may also help a Dem there. oss in FL 22 and (to a lesser degree) FL 13/FL 09 with these two and the state could become a bigger player in the battle for the House than once thought. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

An online poll unscientifically testing whether Nebraskans want homestate Sen. Chuck Hagel to run for president probably didn't turn out the way Mr. Hagel's political advisers would have wished.

The poll no longer exists on the website, but an eagle-eyed Nebraska reader of ours managed a screen grab.

Immigration and Iraq led the Sunday shows. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) started off the immigration talk with their "This Week" appearance. Tancredo: "We don't actually even need another law on the books. We don't need Senator Specter's. We don't need any that I have introduced. No law is necessary if we actually enforce the ones we have on the books today."

More Tancredo: "When you reward millions and millions of people, which Senator Specter's bill does do, for coming across the border the wrong way, doing it illegally, then it's a slap in the face to every single person who has done it the right way, and to everybody who's waiting out there to do it the right way. It's bad policy. And it's also, I think, for the Republican Party especially, bad policy" (ABC, 3/26).

Specter: "It's not amnesty ... because these undocumented aliens are going to have to pay a fine. ... We're facing a difficult situation, because we have approximately 11 million undocumented aliens here, and we've got to find some way to deal with them" (ABC, 3/26).

Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) discussed immigration on "Face the Nation": "It's better that we not pass a bad bill, just to pass a bill." He also agreed with Specter that the Senate was not proposing amnesty: "This is not amnesty. We are not putting anyone at the head of the line. Amnesty means forgiveness. It means pardon" (CBS, 3/26). [EMILY GOODIN]

A story of awkward political ambition in ID. LG-turned-Gov-turned-LG-candidate Jim Risch (R) gets to name his replacement as LG once he assumes the governorship (following Dirk Kempthorne's likely confirmation as Interior Sec.)

Well, out of nowhere, Kempthorne's wife, Patricia, point blank asked Risch to name her as the LG for the remainder of the term. The state elects a new LG in '06, a post Risch, himself, is running for.

According to the AP story, P. Kempthorne said her request "caught Risch by surprise": "He said, 'Oh, the idea had never crossed my mind.'" Adds P. Kempthorne: "I'm not a campaigner. It's a good fit."

Who knows if Risch will appoint her, but honestly, what's he supposed to say and do? He wants a future in ID politics and the Kempthornes are the state's first Republican family. Talk about your awkward decisions for Risch.

The FEC drops its Internet Communications Rulemaking justifications....

From CNET:

Though not all the implications of the 96-page document were immediately clear, one prominent advocate of Internet free speech said the rules are preferable over what could have happened.

"They've tried to take a light hand, and it looks like they might have succeeded," Brad Smith, a former FEC chairman who teaches law at Capital University Law School in Columbus, Ohio, said in a telephone interview. Smith said, though, that he was not able to review the document in detail.

Allison Hayward says the media exemption is extended to Interent communications but not necessarily to all blogs.

Also: no disclaimers required for unsolicited e-mails (except if they're sent by political committees.)

And you can still do this stuff at work without worrying about triggering corporate contribution provisions.

Change Of Subject/BTW: On RedState, Augustine apologixes and Mike Krempasky has a thoughtful rejoinder.

One of the two major candidates for the WI GOV GOP nod has decided to drop out, giving the GOP a much clearer shot at a vulnerably Dem Gov. Jim Doyle.

Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R), a GOPer whom Karl Rove had identified a few years ago as a rising star, has decided to drop out leaving GOP Rep. Mark Green (R-08-Green Bay) as the de facto nominee.

From the AP clip on Walker's announcement (byline: Todd Richmond)

Walker "said he failed to raise as much money as he wanted by the end of March.

Walker said he had enough cash to run in only a fraction of the state's counties, and he probably would have spent most it attacking Green before the two faced off in the GOP primary in September. Walker and Green served together in the state Assembly in the 1990s, and Walker said the idea of attacking his friend was "unappealing."

Even if he survived the primary, he would have faced an enormous challenge going against Doyle in the November general election, he said.

According to campaign finance reports filed in January, Walker had about $563,000 in the bank. Doyle had $4.2 million and Green had $2.1 million.

The big benefit for the GOP is that there now won't be a primary where the two GOPers have to prove their conservative credentials. Doyle was already someone we and others considered vulnerable; this news only reinforces that outlook.

Raise your hand if you knew Anderson Cooper had a blog. Now raise your hand if that is your first stop for news on current events. Yeah -- didn't think so. But don't jump too quickly -- a couple of things need to be kept in mind when looking at this question.

Which Political Blogs Do You Read Regularly?

(multi. accepted, top 4 listed)  -Bush Approve-  -Evang- 

                             All Strg Smwht Dis  Yes  No

360 Blog/Anderson Cooper     21%  28%  15%  19%  23%  16%

AMERICABlog                   3    1    4    3    2    4

blogsforfox.blogspot.com      3    1    5    3    3    2

Daily Kos                     3    2    5    -    2    4

The question was open-ended, and all responses were recorded verbatim. An exhaustive list of pre-coded options was given to interviewers that ran the full spectrum of ideology/partisanship. After the survey was completed, any pre-codes from the list that did not receive responses were deleted.

So how did Anderson Cooper come out on top? There are countless reasons this could have occurred, the most likely being name ID. First of all, CNN promotes their blogs - a lot. Many of the blogs on the list were TV based. This could be a blog that they had heard of before, and subsequently were able to name. Keep in mind that respondents had to offer up responses for this question - they were not offered a list to choose from. If they were, the results would vary drastically from what we see here. This is not the equivalent of asking "which newspaper do you read." That is a daily occurrence and an institution that readers grew up with, making them far less likely to forget a name or offer a skewed response. Blogs are a new medium, particularly among people outside the Beltway (i.e. our universe). This is a game of memory to offer a response that is appropriate.

To obtain complete poll results, go to www.diageohotlinepoll.com.

[AOIFE MCCARTHY]

We continually put other pollsters through the ringer, prodding and poking at their methodology all for the greater good. Well now it is our turn. In yesterday's Diageo/Hotline poll we did something a little different than normal. Instead of a nationwide poll of regis. voters, as you know by now, we did a nationwide poll of regis. GOPers (ooohhhh). So what did we classify as a regis. GOPer? We were looking for regis. voters who are (1) strong GOPers, not so strong GOPers, or inidie-lean GOPers; and (2) they say they typically vote for "Almost all" GOPers or "mostly" GOPers, but a few Dems.

For those of you poll aficionados (you know who you are), the exact screening questions were as follows:

-- Are you 18 years of age or older and registered to vote at this address?

-- Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, a an Independent, or something else?

-- Thinking about the past few state and national elections in which you have voted, which best describes the candidates for whom you voted?

For this poll we did not gather info. based on likelihood to vote in the '08 WH primary.

[AOIFE MCCARTHY]

According to our weekly avgs., Pres. Bush and Congress now have an identical 37% job approval ratings and identical 58% disapproval numbers.

As Markos Moulitsas Zuniga (and Jerome Armstrong) prepare to kick off their Crashing The Gate book tour in Washington Monday, it reminded us of a poll Moulitsas took of his readership.

One of the book's core claims is that a new progressive movement will not succeed unless it is constituted separately from the Democratic Party. That allows it to serve, in some cases, as an independent check on the party's ideology and operations.

That's why it's fascinating to find out whether Kos's readers like the Democratic Party's leadership. The survey suggested that DNC chairman Howard Dean gets top marks -- he has an 82 percent approval rating. Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid (who often disagrees with Dean on tactics) also gets a (bare) majority approval rating.

But House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi's disapproval rating is 67 percent. That's out of more than 14K unique votes. The verdict from those who left comments was that she was not effective and had trouble expressing core Democratic principles.

In her defense, it's hard to hold Pelosi to the same standard as Harry Reid given the enormous sociological differences between the House and the Senate. But only 19 percent of those who voted think she's marginally competent. And presumably, Kos's sophisticated audience understands how powerless the House Dems generally are.

Here's what Kos wrote: "A critic might say that Pelosi's numbers are suffering because of the beating she's taken on this site and the larger blogosphere the past week or two. However, Reid is very much praised around these parts, yet he got a bare majority approval rating."

In advance of Sen. George Allen's trip to NH Saturday, the New Hampshire Democratic Party is attacking the VA Senator for prestidigitation on his committment to budget reform.

The subject line: "Allen in NH this weekend, but his budget busting and fiscal irresponsibility won't fly here."

After spending the evening in SC, Allen has breakfast at the Mountainview resort tomorrow morning; later in the day, he attends the NH GOP's annual meeting at the Southegan Boys and Girls Club in Milford. That meeting will also feature the election of a new GOP state chair. The full NH Dem release is after the jump.

David Bohrman, the DC bureau chief for CNN, announced this a.m. that Capitol Hill correspondent Ed Henry will move to the WH, while current WH correspondent Dana Bash and Andrea Koppel, the network's State Dept reporter, will move to the Hill. The moves are effective 3/27.

Political polling has encountered many hiccups over the years from methodological differences to hard-to-reach demographics. Ever since some serious GOP primary polling snafus in '94, RI GOPers have become one of those hard-to-reach demographics.

In the '02 GOP GOV primary, less than 26K voters cast a ballot, as opposed to nearly 120K on the Dem side. According to '04 election results, John Kerry received 59% of the RI vote, leaving a paltry 39% for Pres. Bush. For a state with such a strong Dem lean, and smaller population than Manhattan, this can make GOP primary voters elusive. Now throw in the fact that RI has open primaries, meaning an unaffiliated voter can vote in either primary on Election Day, and the difficulty increases exponentially.

This conundrum becomes particularly noteworthy now as Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) and Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey (R) battle it out for the GOP spot on the general ballot. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

The DCCC has gotten much media mileage highlighting Iraq war veterans running for Congress. The Discovery Channel is producing a documentary on the candidates.

Many publications (including Glamour) have featured the story of IL 06's Tammy Duckworth. But developments this week raise questions about the viability of some Dem recruits.

Despite a huge financial edge and establishment support, Duckworth
won with only 44% of the vote. The war hero biography and a televised testimonial from Sen. Barack Obama weren't enough to give her a majority.

That same day, Tim Dunn (D) quit the Dem primary to challenge perennially targeted Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC 08). Now the DCCC is counting on teacher Larry Kissell, who they previously had little contact with.

In PA 08, Patrick Murphy (D) is facing a spirited primary challenge from ex-Bucks Co. Cmsr Andy Warren. If the IL 06 results indicate anything, it's that the grassroots matter in a primary. And Warren's an experienced politico with some support from activists.

Will tough primary battles strengthen Dems for the general? Or is their phenomenon a bubble about to burst?[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

Did you miss cable's primetime talk last night? We've got your rundown:

The "Situation Room" led with reports on immigration reform. Contributors Donna Brazile and Bill Bennett discussed Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld, the situation in Iraq and whether Pres. Bush will be impeached. "AC 360" featured a report on ex-Pres. Clinton, who joined Dr. Sanjay Gupta on his "Fit Nation" tour. Clinton: "No non-Pennsylvanian has ever eaten more or enjoyed more cheese steaks than I have." "PZ Now" featured a Candy Crowley report on Clinton's work combating childhood obesity.

"Special Report" also led with immigration. The roundtable discussed the media's coverage of Iraq and the immigration issue. Newt Gingrich was on "Hannity & Colmes" in his role as an FNC contributor. He talked about the media's coverage of Iraq and Hillary Clinton's reference to Jesus in her statement on illegal immigration. FNC's Bill O'Reilly talked about HRC's statement in his "Talking Points" memo: "Her shift to the political center is no longer necessary. That's number one. With President Bush declining in popularity, the senator understands that moderates are more likely to vote for Democrats. So she doesn't need the full court moderate press."

"Hardball" led with the media's coverage of Iraq and spoke to people who attended Bush's town hall meeting in WV. Then BC'04 atty Ben Ginsberg and Dem strategist Bob Shrum discussed the topic. And Chris Matthews spoke with Harold Ford Jr. about his TN SEN run. Asked the difference between himself now and when he first came to the House, Ford: "I've grown up." [EMILY GOODIN]

A sixteen-year-old gay teen versus George Allen.

A fascinating post at RedState about the greying of elite movement conservatives (as opposed to the "conservative movement").

Says author Blanton: "The right needs a succession plan."

To retoot our horn, here's one group of conservatives with potential.

And... here's another.

The OR GOV primary is a few months off yet, but 1 group of bloggers cast its vote in the blogosphere nearly 6 months ago. It's called the Atkinson for Governor Blog Network -- in support of state Sen. Jason Atkinson (R) -- and while it's certainly not a new thing of itself, it is a new iteration of blogger activism. Like the liberal bloggers who came together in early '03 to support Howard Dean, bloggers selected the candidate prior to the campaign reaching out to them. Like the Blogs for Bush effort led by the still-operational namesake/flagship blog, bloggers have volunteered to associate themselves with the campaign. What's also notable is that this is happening at the state level. In '04 most blog activity was concentrated on the WH contest, but the rapid growth of the blogosphere has enabled parallel blogospheres (of varying size) in each state. [WILLIAM BEUTLER]

People You Talk Politics W/Most?

                        -Bush Approve-  -Evang-

                    All Strg Smwht Dis  Yes  No

Almost all GOPers   14%  16%  13%  10%  14%  13%

Most GOP, few Dem   31   35   32   22   34   30

Equal GOP/Dem       36   34   36   40   36   37

Most Dem, few GOP    5    3    6    8    3    7

Almost all Dems      2    2    2    4    2    3

 

Which Of Following Are Most Regular Sources For News?

(multi. accepted, top 7 listed)  -Bush Approve-  -Evang- 

                             All Strg Smwht Dis  Yes  No

Fox News                     39%  46%  38%  26%  37% 42%

Local newspapers             27   23   27   38   25  30

Local TV news                27   23   28   36   26  29

Nightly network news         21   19   22   27   16  26

The Internet                 19   17   20   20   14  25

Radio talk shows             17   22   14   12   16  20

CNN                          17   16   17   21   14  21

          

Which Commentators Do You Rely On Most For Current Event Info?

(multi. accepted, all listed)    -Bush Approve-  -Evang- 

                             All Strg Smwht Dis  Yes  No

Bill O'Reilly                32%  34%  30%  31%  30%  35%

Rush Limbaugh                23   33   18   10   24   24

Sean Hannity                 22   23   22   17   22   22

Chris Matthews                7    5    7   13    8    7

George Will                   7    5    7   11    6    8

Joe Scarborough               4    7    2    1    2    5

Bob Novak                     3    4    3    1    3    3

Tucker Carlson                3    3    3    1    2    3

Other notable findings from our poll. Sen. John McCain's approval is a juxtaposition to Pres. Bush's. Those who strongly approve of Bush have a more critical view of the Sen., however those who disapprove of the pres. are more likely to support McCain for '08.

51% of GOPers say they would elect McCain because they know, and agree with his stance on the issues.

The top three issues that are most important to nation are also among the top issues GOPers both approve and disapprove of the job Bush is doing as pres.

Bush's approval among GOPers remains strong at 80% and increases to 85% among Evangelicals.

When naming a GOPer most likely to defeat the Dem nominee, Sec/State Condoleezza Rice ranks 3rd with 14%. When naming a GOPer most likely to defeat Sen. Hillary Clinton (D), Rice, while still 3rd, closes the gap with 21%.

In a McCain-Giuliani 2-way GOP primary, McCain holds a solid lead only among voters from the West and among those who disapprove of Bush. Among the remaining groups, McCain and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani are either statistically tied, or Giuliani leads.

The ABC News Political Unit this morning released the first installment of what they call their Invisible Primary ratings for the'08 Democratic and Republican contests.

There are lots of ratings out there but the ABC News Political Unit sets the gold standard. Their first go-round in early 2002 correctly ranked Kerry and Edwards as 1 and 2.

Five Provocative Questions from this year's ratings:

1. Is Edwards's second-place overall finish a reflection of pro-Edwards undercurrents that are flowing among both the Gang of 500 and among insurg-ishment Dems right now?

2. Huckabee wins Iowa. Is it because he's the only credible totally pro-life Protestant in the race?

3. Does Brownback really have the best interests of the base at heart on immigration?

4. Does ABC News underestimate Feingold?

5. Is it advisable to characterize the "Netroots" as a single, monolithic entity that will support only one candidate?

Who Supports Rudy?

What kind of GOPer (conservative or moderate) backs Rudy Giuliani in WH '08 polls? And where will they go if/when he doesn't run? The C.W. assumes McCain subsumes them, given their supposedly shared worldview, but...

The latest Diageo/Hotline poll surveyed likely GOP voters (next month we'll sample Dems to test the depth of Hillary's support). Here are the major takeaways:

In a head-to-head, Giuliani and McCain are dead even. But look closer: Rudy leads by 14 points among those who "strongly approve" of Pres. Bush's job performance.

The two are tied among those who "somewhat approve" of Bush. McCain clobbers Rudy among the 18% who "disapprove" of Bush.

And this is where the poll suggests problems for McCain: His FAV rating is 14 points lower than VP Cheney (76% vs. 62%). And he has a higher UNFAV rating than Cheney.

That's a stark contrast from how McCain and Cheney are perceived among all voters. The glass-is-half-full argument for McCain is that his support in a GOP primary is rock solid. He can only gain. This poll goes a long way to explain why McCain's been hugging Bush lately.

Conducted 3/16-19 by Financial Dynamics; surveyed 602 regis. GOPers; margin of error +/- 4%

.....Rep. Dennis Rehberg announced moments ago he'll run for re-election, which means he won't challenge Sen. Conrad Burns (R) in the Senate primary.

We kid...sort of.

For the first time in more than six months, we received an e-mail update from ex-Rep. John Kasich's New Century Project PAC.

It announces his appearance tonight on The Colbert Report.

We had forgotten about Rep. Kasich's PAC; the webmaster did too; the copyright on the PAC's graphic dates to 2003.

So what's the ex-OH-techno-savvy-Heartland-lovin'-budget-hawkin' Congressman doing these days?

Aside from his Fox News gig, he's a big-time investment banker at Lehman Brothers. According to his PAC website, his main political issues are school vouchers, eliminating the death/inheritance/estate tax, opposing internet taxes, etc.

He's still young-looking but his face has some maturing wrinkles and satisfying creases.

We hear that Ohio GOPers tried to recruit him to run for governor; he politely is said to have shrugged off those appeals.

But he has not, according to one long-time friend of his, ruled out a return to politics. [MARC AMBINDER]

Events of the last few weeks have provided plenty of material for the poor souls who moderate candidate debates.

The two issues certain to come up in an organized debate for a House or Senate seat are the censure measure Sen. Russell Feingold, D-Wis., introduced and the new abortion law in South Dakota. The answers the candidates give will be guaranteed copy for the media covering the event. And in some cases, the way candidates prepare for these questions will be so intense that potential responses will be focus-grouped (at least by the campaigns that can afford such a novelty). [CHUCK TODD]

Continue reading On The Trail

A Diageo/Hotline poll of GOP voters shows ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in a 2-way WH '08 GOP primary 42%-40%.

McCain's fav rating is 62%, compared to 76% fav for VP Cheney.

More later ... right here.

NCers on both sides of the aisle are excited about their prospects among members of the law and order community. Dems boast of at least two vets just back from the Middle East who will play a big role in the future of the state, as well as a DA who's already considering his '08 plans. GOPers can't wait to hear from a sheriff who earned his GED after having to drop out of school to help his parents out financially. But some GOPers are keeping a close eye on the volatility of the State Legislature and say that a power shift, which may be only a few months away, could boost some new candidates' prospects for the future. [REID WILSON]

Brooklyn councilman Bill de Blasio (D), known inside the Beltway for running Hillary Clinton's successful Senate campaign, told supporters he is "taking a serious look" at challenging Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY 13).

While he doesn't live in the Staten Island-based district, De Blasio could be a credible opponent, with his strong network and access to HRC's donors. Also the CD has leaned Dem nationally: Bill Clinton and Al Gore easily won there; the 9/11 effect tipped it to Bush in '04.

Dems need to pick off moderate, Northeastern GOPers like Fossella to win back control of the House. Just as the conservative Southern turnover helped fuel GOP victories in '94, Dems will need to offer credible challengers to moderate GOPers in the region.

In NY, potential landslides by HRC and Eliot Spitzer could help Dems down-ballot. Rep. Boehlert's (R-NY 24) retirement offered them their first opening. But they'll need more top-tier candidates to jump in to realize that potential.[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

Our skepticism about "non-partisan" voter registration drives remains in effect, but we still think the program below is cool and worthy of a post.

The George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) will today announce the winners of a $3M grant contest to develop innovative strategies to get 18-to-29-year olds registered to vote. This demographic registered -- and turned out -- in comparatively high proportions in '04.

The winners get $$ money from the Pew Charitable Trusts and GWU to sign up new voters.

The winners include Mobile Voter and Music For America, which will, according to a press release, use "creative text-messaging and Internet technology in conjunction with concerts and celebrity outreach." Music for America has a secular liberal orientation; (on their website, the first image that pops out at a viewer is a hot young hunk wearing boxer shorts; the accompanying blog post has something to do with Pres. Bush's "negligence.")

More fascinating to us: "Redeem the Vote and the Center for Civic Participation will register religious youth in Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Michigan using both peer outreach and innovative email and Internet strategies." Redeem the Vote has a moral conservative orientation. Check out their partners.

These groups and others listed are technically non-partisan. They don't partner directly with Dems or GOPers and don't specifically call for the election of candidates in particular parties. Tax status and all.

But.

The groups are clearly ideological. And in a polarized political environment, ideology tends to track rather comfortably with partisanship.

We're not going to get involved in the murky debate about whether any program that uses value statements to register voters can be truly non-partisan in the common (mis)understanding of the phrase... we've just not been able to find a group that doesn't trigger our ideological alert button.

None of this is meant to denigrate the program or programs. In fact, GWU seems to recognize, in its choices, that the most effective voter registration programs are those that target young voters not as young voters but as members of other, self-defined groups -- be they African Americans displaced by Katrina or evangelical Christians or single women. [MARC AMBINDER]

The full release (with all the winners) is after the jump.

Like most Hill bigwigs, Speaker Hastert is spending the recess week stumping and raising money in targeted districts.

He spent part of Monday in rural GA ginning up support for ex-Rep. Max Burns' (R) bid to return to the House in the newly redrawn GA 12.

A local GA TV station covered Hastert's event. Take a look at the video and make sure you watch til the end.

Seems like the Speaker is a lot happier to be eating hushpuppies at McKinney's Pond than to be back in DC trimming pork from the FY 07 budget, don't it?

Check out the coverage of Sen. George Allen (R-VA)'s town hall meeting in Culpeper yesterday. True, it's hard to decipher the mood of an event by reading the press clips especially because print scribes naturally like to play up conflict and passion. But take a gander at both some of the questions and some of Allen's responses.

Allen "emphasized that he was there to hear from constituents" and "they obliged." One of "the most moving appeals" came from Joanne Carroll, "an ex Wal-Mart cashier" with "high blood pressure and no health insurance." Carroll: "I'm not lazty. I worked in this country for many years. My husband worked for many years. We're not bad citizens." She urged Allen to "go to congress and talk with the other senators about this problem." Allen "promised that his office's social services contacts would help Carroll in the short term and he suggested that health savings accounts could help others in her situation."

Culpeper resident Gardiner Mulford, responding to Allen's promotion "for a more competitive America with fewer taxes" and a balanced budget constitutional amendment: "You are not getting these things accomplished. I voted Republican since I was 18, last year I didn't. Your words really ring hollow."

These tetchy crowds confront Republican incumbents wherever they go, and it doesn't seem as if a stock answer will satisfy the questioners' concerns.

As Charlie Cook has written, "Historically, when parties have suffered unusually large losses in midterm elections, it has been when their voters were either complacent or disillusioned, and the other party was either hungry or angry. That turns tight races into tough losses and races that shouldn't be particularly close into nail-biters."

Conservative activists get mad at media polls that don't sample "enough" self-identified Republicans, but it might just be the case that "enough" folks aren't willing to identify themselves as Republicans.

BTW: evidence that Allen's Tom Tancredo meeting influenced his thinking?

Allen, asked about immigration, said "we should not be rewarding illegal behavior by getting them on a track to citizenship. If you reward illegal behavior, all you get is illegal behavior."

Admittedly, we had to look up expressio unius est exclusio alterius too, but we're not lawyers and certainly not the Attorney General of a state where that concept was cited by a court to overturn one of your political base's most important initiatives.

FL Republicans and Democrats whisper about GOP GOV candidate/AG Charlie Crist: is he ready for (extemporaneous) prime time? Is there more to him than veneer?

From the Palm Beach Post: "Attorney general and candidate for governor Charlie Crist has appeared at a recent pro-voucher rally and has criticized the Florida Supreme Court ruling striking down vouchers, but on Tuesday appeared unfamiliar with the central legal concept justices used in their decision."

"He added that he was unfamiliar with the expressio unius phrase. 'It's some Latin term, isn't it? Res ipsa loquitur and ipso facto, one of those?' he joked, adding a moment later: 'I never took Latin. Just Español.'"

Stumped on the stumped he was. A curiosity? An understandible oversight? Or does it go to the heart of Tom Gallagher's argument against Christ: that there's no there there.

Gallup sent out their own release last night regarding their break with CNN. CEO Jim Clifton: "We have had a great partnership with CNN, but we have to boldly change and invent new futures for Gallup or we will not survive the hurricane of competition coming from all directions in everything we do.... It has been a great partnership and one that has meant a lot to this CEO. One of which we have all been very proud and one in which we delivered our very best work every week."

According to the release, the "Gallup Poll will continue with more polling than ever, but with new distribution channels. Gallup is creating its own e-broadcasting programs and does not want to be affiliated with only one broadcast network."

Gallup is renewing its partnership with USA Today, making one of the two primary distribution channels for the poll, the other being e-Gallup -- which Clifton describes as a "Daily Briefing video news program that will deliver the content in the medium we see as key to our sustainability."

Clifton also notes that http://poll.gallup.com "will continue to provide the best in-depth coverage from the people's perspective on all the top issues confronting not only the United States, but the world." [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

ADDISON, IL --- As the clock struck midnight, Tammy Duckworth entered campaign headquarters walking on a pair of $80K titanium legs, to raucous applause. The local media hasn't called it yet, but Dick Durbin is beaming, and the general feeling is that Duckworth's main challenger, Christine Cegelis, is about to turn into a pumpkin.

Turnout for today's primary was unexpectedly low--about two-thirds as many voters showed up as expected. But the crowd is gathering at the podium and little American flags are being passed through the crowd. Durbin hit the stage, and then Duckworth followed, offering a positive, but tentative, victory speech ("If these numbers hold..."). The only negativity was directed at the Republican nominee and presumed Duckworth opponent Pete Roskam, a former Tom DeLay staffer most recently in the news here for his brave (given the approval numbers) embrace of Dick Cheney who just headlined a Roskam fundraiser. It won't be official until the famously shaky Cook County numbers come in. But it looks very likely that with Duckworth's win, one of the major frontlines of the 2006 midterms will be IL-06. [JOSHUA GREEN]

IL 06 (D)          98% Reporting

Tammy DUCKWORTH    43.8% (AP Calls)
Christine CEGELIS  40.4%

  ON CALL THE ILLINOIS PRIMARY

Bean's '04 win haunts GOPers in nearby IL 06, where Dem bigs (including Emanuel) have rallied behind Tammy Duckworth against '04 nom Christine Cegelis (D), who held Rep. Hyde (R) to 56%. If they take Hyde's seat in 11/06, suburban GOPers are running scared in CT, NY, WI, OH, IN, VA and MN ... to name a few. The IL 06 Dem battle will be a test of money versus organization.

Cegelis has been campaigning non-stop since she ran respectably against Hyde (R) in '04. But as Emanuel's favored candidate, Duckworth has received more than $500K in only 3 months -- mostly from out-of-district sources. Her spending on direct mail and media quickly raised her name ID. But many local Dems are still getting to know her: DuPage Co's Dem chair told HRH she decided her vote just yesterday.

-- Finally, in nearby IL 03, frosh Rep. Dan Lipinski faces two Dems named John, both angry over ballot shenanigans that ensured his '04 win.

-- The GOP schism is also raging in today's IL GOV primary, where moderate Judy Baar Topinka leads three conservatives, all trying to tie her to ex-Gov. George Ryan (R). (Will his verdict come down before polls close?). Blago, meanwhile, will sail to renomination. But if he doesn't top 65%, is he truly out of the woods?

According to our spies, some of the Cook County precincts are going to be VERY slow in reporting, making the IL 06 Dem primary in particular, very hard to call. So what does a good political junkie do while biding time for results? Why not watch a real live fundraising event. John McCain is stumping for WA SEN GOP hopeful Mike McGavick tonight and the very tech-savvy McGavick team is webcasting the McCain and McGavick speeches live at 10:15pm ET (7:15pm PT). Go here or here. We can't wait to find out if McGavick uses RealPlayer to distribute the video; His Dem foe, Sen. Maria Cantwell, earned her quick fortune working for RealNetworks.

The headlines, as we see them:

-- The DNC improves, thanks to some high-dollar events, good Internet numbers, and to the talents of new finance director Carl Chidlow, one of the best professional fundraisers in the party.

-- NRSC outraises the DSCC for the second consecutive month, although they did the same in '05 and can thank Pres. Bush for their cash haul. (Will they raise a lot off Rudy G. in May?)

--GOPers have a large cash on hand advantage over Democrats.

Numbers in millions.

Cmte      Raised     Spent      CoH
DNC       $6.2        $4.1      $8.9
RNC       $10.8       $8.9      $40.8
NRCC      $5.4        $4.3      $20.8
DCCC      $3.1        $2.5      $16.3
DSCC      $3.8        $1.8      $27.4
NRSC**    $5.5        $2.5      $14.5

(** Represents a 34% percent increase from Jan-Feb. of '04)

Yes there is.

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Bush: [commanders on the ground] are the ones who can best judge whether coalition troops create more of a problem than a solution. If there is sectarian violence, it's the job of the Iraqi forces with help from the coalition forces
to separate them.

Will there be a day when there are no US troops in Iraq?

Bush: "That of course is an ojbective that will be decided by future presidents..."

Pres. Bush is asked by Fox News's WH correspondent about censure and impeachment.

"I think that during these difficult times, the American people expect their to be an honest and open debate without needless partisanship. I did notice that nobody from the Democrat party has called for getting rid of the terrorist surveillance program. [Opponents of the program] ought to say , 'vote for me, I promise not to have a terrorist surveillance program.'"

Bush: "I'm spending that capital on the war...."

"Social Security... it didn't get done. Last year, the tactic was to believe that once people saw there was a problem they would demand there was a solution. The new tactics to get people involved in this process is to try to take the politics out of it and bring members of both parties into it. There's quiet consultation...to get something put into place that has a bipartisan appeal to it....I take great pride in the fact that I was willing to bring up the issue. That's the job of the president...to confront big issues."

Should Rumsfeld resign?

"I don't believe he should resign and I believe he's done a fine job of conducting two battles but also transforming our military. Every war plan looks good on paper until you meet the enemy."

War creates trauma particularly when you're fighting an enemy that doesn't fight solider-to-solider but instead uses IEDs [to blow up] innoncent people...If i didn't believe we were going to succeed, I wouldn't put those kids there...A Democracy in Iraq is going to inspire reformers in a part of the world desparate for reform.

"I'm talking realistically for victory. We have a plan for victory and we will achieve that plan. Iraq is part of...the global war on terror. ....Americans are concerned about whether or not we can win and that's one of the reasons why we go around the country explaining why I think we can win.....Yes I'm optimistic but I am also realistic...I believe that they want to hurt us again and therefore i know we need to stay on the offense against this enemy."

Would you benefit from staffchanges?

I've got a staff fof people that have placed their country above their self-interest. These are good, hard-working decent people. We've dealt with a lot. War, scandal..Katrina...they have a lot on their place. [The camera cuts away to a smiling McClellan, Rove, Bartlett et. al.] I got a lot of advice, sometimes in private and sometimes in public. I'm satisfied with the people I've surroundeded myself with. We've been a remarkably stable administration and I think that's good for the country.

Bumiller asks the question again.

I'm listening to all suggestions. I really am. We bring Congress down here all the time. It's interesting to hear their observations.
They're obviously expressing concerns. It's election year, after all. There's an certain unease as you head into the election year. ... My message to them is, please continue to give me advice and suggestions and I take their advice seriously.

He calls on Helen Thomas, teasing her for her performance at the Gridiron dinner. Thomas: "Your decision to invade Iraq has caused the deaths of thousands of Americans and Iraqis...every reason given has turned out not to be true...why did you really want to go war?"

Bush: "I think your premise...I didn't want war. To assume I wanted war is just flat wrong. No president wants war. Everything you may have heard is that, but it's just simply not true. My attitude about the defense of this country changed on September the 11th. Our foreign policy changed on that day. We used to think we were secure because of oceans and previous diplomacy but we realized on 9/11 that killers could destroy innoncent life. And I'm never going to forget it and never going to forget the vow to do everything in my power to prect the American people."

(Thomas tries to cross talk and Bush is not happy with the interruption.)

"I also saw a threat in Iraq. I was hoping to solve this problem diplomatically...that's why I went to the security council....the world say, disarm, disclose or face serious consequences....therefore, we worked with the world...and when [Saddam] chose not to disclose, then I made a difficult decision to remove him..."

President Bush repeats: "America is addicted to oil."

[Is Iraq in a civil war?] "There are other voices coming out of Iraq other than Mr. Allawi. Who I know. Like. Good fellow. Pres. Talabani has spoken. Gen. Casey. Listen, we all recognize that there is violence and there is sectarian violence, but the way I look at the situation is that Iraqis looked at the situation and decided not to [start a civil war.]

"Any relationship between Iraq and Iran will be negotiated between sovereign governments."

"If Iranians were to have a nuclear weapon, it could blackmail the world."

Bush '41, that is.

And here we thought Sen. McCain was reaching out to conservatives. (We kid, we kid.).

From a release:

"George Bush, 41st President of the United States, will host Senator John McCain on Monday, April 3, 2006, at 5:00 pm. Senator McCain will present the Twanna M. Powell Lecture at Rudder Auditorium on the campus of Texas A&M University. The program is sponsored by the George Bush Presidential Library Foundation."

"I am pleased to have the opportunity to visit the George Bush Presidential Library and participate in this distinguished lecture series," Sen. McCain said. "President Bush has been a mentor, a colleague, and a friend, and I am honored to be his guest in the great state of Texas. The Aggies are fortunate to have the President's library call their campus home."

We'll post the highlights.

The mysterious king of New Jersey politics offers a rare identity clue.

Last week's post indicated that no campaign had yet taken up Comcast or any other DVR service on "Showcase" ads. But that wasn't quite the case.

Comcast Spotlight senior director of marketing for D.C. Steve Nicklin spoke to the buzz generated in the DC area about DVR ads for political campaigns, but the buzz has spread beyond the Beltway. In fact the Ocean State beat local campaigns to the DVR punch.

While no local campaigns have launched a DVR spot (yet), through our influx of emails we discovered that the first On Demand ads are alive and running in RI. According to a Cox Communications release, RI state Sen./Treas. candidate Frank Caprio (D) "is using this new long-form advertising vehicle" to give RIers "a better sense of who he is and what he could do for the state." The four minute movie, The Biography can be viewed by Cox Digital Cable "customers for the next several months at any time by going to channel 1. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

The Bush Administration seems to assert its right to approve warrantless physical searches.

in a little-noticed white paper submitted by Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to Congress on January 19 justifying the legality of the NSA eavesdropping, Justice Department lawyers made a tacit case that President Bush also has the inherent authority to order such physical searches.

(US News)

In a sparkling new variant of 2008 positioning flavored as 2006 persuaion, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson told politically-engaged firefighters today to ignore Washington -- he pointedly did not distinguish between parties -- and instead look to Democratic governors in states for their salvation.

"Nothing that is happening here in Washington is affecting your life for the better," he said.

Several of the firefighters listening seemed a bit taken aback by the directness of Richardson's aim. They were in DC for the annual legislative (read: lobbying) conference of the International Association of Fire Fighters, the first major int'l AFL-CIO union to endorse Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election. Many in the audience represent departments trying to convince the federal government to fund new equipment, better training and to permit them to hire more personnel. A major goal for IAFF members is to restore money to the SAFER program, which was designed to help localities hire new firefighters much the same way the COPS program does for local police officers. The FY '07 budget proposed by the Bush adminisration included no funding for SAFER. The IAFF has been careful to court Republicans on appropriations committees and also to maintain generally friendly relations with the White House. (Chief of Staff Andrew Card was scheduled to speak later in the day.)

"States have been fulfilling the promises that Washingtom makes," Richardson said.

The New Mexico governor, currently the chair of the Dem. Governors Assoc., said Democratic governors in states were making daily decisions to help firefighters. He referred to his own state, where Democrats and some Republicans supported a measure of collective bargaining for firefighters. He said Republican governors in several states had taken the opposite course.

"It makes a difference to have a Democratic governor," he said.

Richardson downplayed Democratic chances of taking control of either chamber of commerce in 2006. "Our Democrats governors have 22" state houses, he said. "And we have the greatest chances to win a majority of 25" in the next election.

Richardson them took aim at the Democratic Party, implying that eager 2008 presidential hopefuls were deliberately (or, at least, effectively) saving their playoff performances for that cycle.

"We won't wait for 2008," he said, echoing a theme that resonates among DGA fundraisers. "America can't wait for '08 and a Democratic president." He continued and raised his voice: "46 million Americans without health insurance...can't wait...students..in underperforming schools can't wait..."

But then Richardson seemed to address his own 2008 presidential aspirations. He repeated a line about how, despite his gringo name, he was an Hispanic. He pledged not to let Republicans hijack the language of faith to win elections and revealed how a conservation with his priest helped him to push for a minimum wage increase in New Mexico. He called himself a "new progressive," which he loosely defined as a believer in private enterprise whose ultimate goal is social justice. Sounding a theme from President Bill Clinton, he spoke about opportunity with accountability. He mentioned his penchant for cutting taxes.

The firefighters gave Richardson a standing ovation when he finished speaking, but it was somewhat less enthusiastic than the ovation that greeted him. Harold Schaitberger, the IAFF's president, had revved up the audience with examples of how Richardson was truly a friend of to firefighters.

Richardson may have lost the audience -- slightly -- when he implied that he wanted something from them.

"You are one of the most political unions in the country," he said, referring most probably to the IAFF's political clout. [MARC AMBINDER]

It's official -- Pres Bush will return to where it all began to raise cash for Rep. Jim Nussle's (R-IA) GOV bid next month.

$250 gets you "floor level seating" at the Des Moines dinner, but cough up $10K and you'll be entitled to a pair of photos with the Prez and dinner for two at a table with a better view of the action.

Remember, John McCain (presumably with Hawkeye State native Terry Nelson in tow) comes to Cedar Rapids for a Nussle lunch on April 13th, two days after the Bush visit.

It did not escape the notice of Washington wags that on the third anniversary of the commencement of major combat operations in Iraq, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was nowhere to be seen on the Sunday shows.

And in an era when resignation rumors are, shall we say, overdetermined, his absence once again predictably is fueling an onslaught of Monday morning rumors.

They don't seem to be true, but several news organizations are chasing them anyway.

Candidates' family members often make their debuts in television advertisements targeting swing voters -- not insiders. But Sen. Rick Santorum's 14-year-old daughter Elizabeth is the star of a new web advertisement that's featured in the splash position on PoliticsPA.com, ensuring that it will get the attention of journalists, consultants and engaged activists on both sides.

Elizabeth Santorum narrates the ad and introduces members of Santorum's large family. She's a regular gal -- "I love sleeping in until really late in the morning," she says -- who wants to help her father.

Says a Santorum campaign aide: "Elizabeth is very mature for her age and excited about making a contribution to the campaign. This is just the first of many areas of involvement for Elizabeth and the family to come."

Santorum's regular-guy-ness has come under fire from a number of fronts. His PAC has been accused of paying for personal expenses; he obtained a favorably-termed mortgage from a PA bank that donated to his political campaigns; earlier in the campaign, Democrats complained about the amount of state money used to educate his children; Santorum later announced that his wife Karen would teach them at home.

Consider this a rebuttal of sorts.

Each Monday, Hotline TV editor Emily Goodin will pack a dozen hours of Sunday show news and analysis into one digestible post.

VP Cheney was on "Face the Nation," where the discussion began with the situation in Iraq.

He was asked if the admin's optimistic statements on Iraq led to the public's skeptical view of progress there. He replied: "No. I think it has less to do with the statements we've made, which I think were basically accurate and reflect reality, than it does with the fact that there's a constant sort of perception, if you will, that's created because what's newsworthy is the car bomb in Baghdad. ... The facts are pretty straightforward. The Iraqis met every single political deadline that's been set for them. They haven't missed a single one. ... On the security front we've seen major progress in terms of training and equipping Iraqi forces. Today, roughly half of all of the missions that are being conducted over there are with Iraqis in the lead. They've been very successful now in terms of training and equipping over 100 battalions of Iraqi troops, and it continues to improve day by day. Those are the facts on the ground."

From last weekend's Southern Republican Leadership Conference, here are votes on the question: "Which Democrat is most likely to win electoral votes in your state?" Percentage based on ballots with candidate named. There were 1,427 ballots turned in.

Clinton               23.8%
Edwards               20.1
Warner                15.0
Gore                   7.8
Clark                  6.5
Bayh                   6.2
Richardson             4.5
Kerry                  3.9
Biden                  2.4
Daschle                2.3
Z. Miller (write-in)   1.5
Vilsack                1.0
Bredesen (write-in)    0.8
Feingold               0.8
Lieberman (write-in)   0.7

Another senior Bush-Cheney campaign official has joined Team McCain.

Terry Nelson will be a "senior adviser" to McCain's Straight Talk America PAC, according to Ron Fournier.

Nelson was political director for BC04, overseeing the campaign's state-by-state operations.

SD Dems have finally found someone to challenge Gov. Mike Rounds (R).

Minnehaha Co. Dem Chair/ex-state Rep. Jack Billion (D) will seek his party's nod, according to the SD Dem Party. Billion will formally announce his candidacy after he files his petitions.

Dems have been searching for a candidate for weeks since '02 candidate/Atty Ron Volesky (D) quit the race. Volesky had $3K CoH when he withdrew. Rounds had $1.4M CoH at the end of 2005.

Rounds, who recently signed a law banning virtually all abortions, has not announced re-election yet, but he's expected to do so after the legislative session ends 3/20. Billion is pro-chioce.

"Gov. Rounds does enjoy a lot of support and is popular," said SD GOP executive director Max Wetz. "And there's nothing about the campaign for Jack Billion that's going to be easy."

Ex-SD Farmers Union head Dennis Wiese (D) and SD Nat'l Guard/student Tyler Smith (D) are also circulating petitions to get on the ballot, according to the SD Dems. [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

It's hard to write about voter files without getting into the weeds a bit, but some context is helpful to understand the genesis of the debate about whether the DNC's voter database works.

Before the '04 cycle, the DNC asked a company (now called Plus Three) to help turn its old database, which literally resided on a dusty old computer, into a dynamic targeting powerhouse. Plus Three constructed a database called DataMart and merged with what Terry McAullife liked to call Demzilla -- a separate collection of DNC donor lists. Those donors -- the party's regular voters, certainly -- suddenly had full demographic and interest profiles.

The challenge: build on the technology and create a larger database of folks who weren't regular Dem voters and weren't regular Dem donors. The Dems appended as many as 150 data points to each person. Institutionally, state parties balked. The data was theirs, by tradition. They didn't want the DNC to have what was rightfully (wherein rightfully means by unquestioned tradition) theirs.

An agreement was cobbled together. The state parties would scrub their lists twice a year and give the data to the DNC, but in most cases, the DNC would not itself be able to do much more than give state party data manipulators -- many of them untrained and not too sophisticated about the scope and limitations of the system -- access to the coordinated data.

What the DNC had by the start of the '04 cycle was a computer system with a poor interface, jealous state parties, a mistrustful set of presidential campaigns, poorly trained managers and very few strategists who actually understood how targeting worked and how it could be helpful. They also had not actually put the data to good use -- or any use -- by time John Kerry won the nomination.

That's lightyears behind what the the GOP's Voter Vault project achieved by the start of the same cycle. The interface was intuitive. Depending upon the voter, the RNC could tell as few as 20 or as many as 60 different facts about them. The project was scientifically managed. Trials were repeated; assumptions were tested.

For Dems, Laura Quinn was brought on to manage the Datamart project. Data was acquired, though maybe not enough. The software was tweaked. There was little time for tests, though, and the wheels started to turn quite late -- in the summer of '04. As we've written, she and others had four months to do what the GOP did in two years. Technology does not follow the political calendar by itself, and for Dems in the '04 election, the Datamart project did not succeed.

The DNC asked Booz Allen Hamilton to figure out why Datamart failed. It blamed people and technology. The DNC hadn't spent the resources to train people who knew how to create and expectations for users of the system.

When Howard Dean was elected chair, he decided to spend more money to staff organizers in every state (requiring an enormous upfront disbursement) and to take the file project more slowly. The last thing the party needed, in Dean's thinking, was a second messed up system.

Today, under the direction of Ben Self, the DNC has produced a mighty fine online user interface. They're purchased some data sets and plan to spend (or in the Democrat's lexicon, "invest") in much more over the next several months. Right now, the database isn't terribly useful in terms of targeting because there are relatively few data points that come up when, say, the name "Karen Finney" is run through. But that is changing. Outsiders familiar with the DNC project worry that Dean has spent too little to train enough users for the system to be useful in 2006.

Who puts the "data" in databases? Well, the DNC can buy lists directly or it can purchase lists kept by other firms, like InfoUSA. Since there are a set number of "list firms" out there, both Data Warhouse and the DNC's effort will probably buy the same data from the same sources.

Who builds the "base" in database? The usual crowd, including Plus Three (which brags about its old DNC work here).

The good news for Dems is that the Ickes project intends to raise enough money to invest in both the purchase of lists and the tweaking of software necessary to catch up with the Republican Party. Data Warhouse has the luxury of testing its techniques, too.

Weaving in baseball imagery and offering a final plug for his brand of moderate politics, veteran Upstate NY Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R) is to announce his retirement at 3 p.m in the Utica train station which bears his name, the Hotline has learned.

Boehlert, an ardent Yankees fan whose CD includes Cooperstown, will use what he says are the "words of the distinguished gentleman, Roger Clemens who, when asked about retirement said '...when I shut it down, I'll be walking away with a smile on my face. There will be no regrets because I feel like I've done it the right way.'"

Boehlert: "Those are my sentiments. I do feel like I've done it the right way."

The 12-term lawmaker will say that, for the first time, he "gave serious consideration" to calling it a career in '04, but that his "sense of duty kept reminding [him] that the next two years - last year and this - presented particular challenges and unique opportunities."

Then, after touching on his accomplishments in the 109th Congress and calling '05 the "moderates moment," Boehlert will say goodbye -- "proud" of the "label of moderate."

More on what may come of the seat after the jump

[JONATHAN MARTIN AND JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

This week's Strategic Vision (R) polls in MI and PA are the first ones they've done that have WH GOP ballot tests without Rudy Giuliani

What do they find when comparing the w/Rudy and the w/o Rudy? The undecided more than doubles. Sen. John McCain only slightly grows.

Is this more proof that Giuliani's poll numbers are inflated with conservative Bush supporters who tell pollsters "Giuliani" but have no idea of his social stances?

BTW: we learned today that Giuliani will make his first trip to IA on 5/1. He's in town for a Get Motivated seminar, but he'll help raise money for Jim Nussle's GOV bid in Davenport and attend a state party event in Des Moines.

The full poll is after the jump.

No election cycle passes without some innovation becoming the latest "it." This year, it could be DVR/TiVO on demand advertising "Showcases."

If you don't have a TiVO or DVR, go buy one. And go to the "Showcases" menu and imagine scrolling through a list of TV ads.
-- Since DVR advertising isn't bound by the same constraints as TV or radio, campaigns can run spots of up to 60 minutes and let viewers decide which messages they'll watch. Comcast has even established a clearly recognized "Election 2006" link, uniformly positioned in all 22 available markets.

One can see clear benefits for low-budget campaigns and low-budget interest groups to, as Comcast puts it, "elaborate on their causes." As for the negative messaging potential: Could this be the latest McCain-Feingold loophole?

And, of course, the demographic gathering capabilities of DVRs will make those into micro-targeting go into spasmic excitement.

Of course, not everyone can hold audiences beyond 60 seconds. It's going to take a unique campaign to break through before "it" goes mainstream. But as voters demand more context, one can see this medium growing. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

....that Amerigroup CEO Jeffrey McWaters, a major GOP donor, will help Sen. Bill Frist raise money for his PAC. McWaters was previous finance chair of Jerry Kilgore's gubernatorial bid.

....that Pete Jeffries, ex-comm. dir to Speaker Dennis Hastert, will leave a private sector gig to help Rep. Jim Nussle become IA governor. Jeffries will be responsible for strategic planning, policy development and external outreach. The idea here is that "he's going to make a good team great," according to a Republican who knows him.

More food for thought on a nationalized election, once again courtesy of NBC News' First Read: "Asked which would be more important in determining how they vote, their own representative's position on national issues or their representative's performance in their district, 44% [answering in an NBC News/WSJ poll] said "national issues" and 40% said performance in the district. That's a greater percentage choosing "national issues" than in October 1994 (35%)."

Frist Read also picks up Charlie Cook's latest column, which you can read for free right here next week. Cook "notes that by 'almost every relevant measurement, national polls indicate that Republicans are at least as bad off as Democrats at this point in 1994, before suffering devastating midterm losses... On Election Day, the GOP tidal wave turned out to be a lot stronger than anticipated, and a 52-seat House gain... went into the record book. Today's national data forecast an anti-GOP tidal wave. Will it be large enough to wipe out structural advantages that benefit the Republicans?'"

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

NCers on both sides of the aisle are excited about their prospects among members of the law and order community. Dems boast of at least two vets just back from the Middle East who will play a big role in the future of the state, as well as a DA who's already considering his '08 plans. GOPers can't wait to hear from a sheriff who earned his GED after having to drop out of school to help his parents out financially. But some GOPers are keeping a close eye on the volatility of the State Legislature and say that a power shift, which may be only a few months away, could boost some new candidates' prospects for the future. [REID WILSON]

Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) said that people shouldn't be punished for "minor" crimes such as "streetwalking" (The Swamp).

If Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID) is confirmed as Interior Secretary, would LG Jim Risch (R) run for a full term as governor? Risch had been widely expected to run for governor this year, but bowed out in 11/05, announcing he would run for re-election as LG.

He was apparently chased out of the race by Rep. Butch Otter's (R) early decision to run and his sizeable war chest, but the option of running as a sitting governor could conceivably change Risch's calculus.

But he doesn't have long to decide which race is more attractive. ID's filing deadline is tomorrow (3/17)! [QUINN MCCORD]

We hear...

....that Senate Republicans will force a floor vote on Sen. Russ Feingold's censure resolution after Congress returns from its next recess.

The GOP wants to put Dems on record. Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) believes that the best tactic for Republicans heading into a midterm where the environment favors Dems is to heighten the contrast on issues where Americans percieve Dems to be weak.

An adviser said Frist wants to use "the completely off-the-rails behavior of the Democrats on censure to serve as an organizing principle for Republicans in the Senate, house, and in the states and counties." Frist's VOLPAC will try to build a grassfire against the censure among the Republican base. (The PAC's e-mail list is quite large.)

Said one Republican shoulder-deep in the midterms: "If it is a referendum, we have a challenge, if it is a choice, we have a chance."

Change versus the same.

For weeks, in briefings and in personal conversations, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have pounded that message into the heads of reporters who cover politics.

Every week, the committees try to fit the GOP's legislative maneuvering into that rubric.

The hope, we think, is to get reporters to stop writing about how Dems have no message and start using the Trademarked phrase "Rubber Stamp Congress" to describe Republicans in Washington.

At a briefing today, DCCC chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) said Republicans "were out of ideas and out of energy."

And Emanuel, who belongs to a party lacking a flagbearer or central voice, called Republicans "rudderless."

Emanuel said that Republicans (we add "too") are divided on message, strategy and tactics. They can't agree on budget rules, he said. They can't agree on lobbying reform, he said. They can't agree on a plan for Iraq, he said.

He predicted that Democratic challengers would increasingly try to draw contrasts with their Republican incumbent opponents by tagging them as "rubber stamp Republicans" and proposing locally-inflected alternatives.

He said Democrats would continue to roll-out their national platform piecemeal -- "incremental" was his word -- and later in the year would seek to tie it all together.

Asked by a reporter if Sen. Russ Feingold's censure resolution was good politics, Emanuel paused for five seconds before responding that "censure is not even in the constitution" and that if it were, "I'd censure for not having a minimum wage increase." When pressed to answer whether he supported it, he said "no" but hastened to add that he was speaking for himself and not for the conference.

GOP consultant Rick Wilson sums up on his blog how the party feels Katherine Harris right now.

Oh...dear...GOD
What in the name of hell was that? It was so bizarre...so completely loco. That sound you heard? It was the sound of Bill Nelson raising $50 million dollars and the Florida GOP swirling down the proverbial political crapper.

Not for nothing did Nelson's campaign manager, Chad Clanton, try to leverage the interview.

From an e-mail sent to supporters: "People are smart; they're informed; and, they're active. However, $10,000,000 spent on attack ads and a willingness to say anything can put a dent in even the most formidable lead. This is going to be a hard-fought battle against a very heavily funded opponent - an opponent who must be beat."

More: "Over the past 30 days, our online supporters have come through big for us by helping to build a substantial fundraising advantage. This support allowed us to make decisions based primarily on strategy, instead of financial constraints. When Harris announced that she will redouble her efforts and start pouring her own personal money into this campaign, I thought about how much your support has already meant and how much it will mean down the road as we work to return Bill Nelson to office."

BTW: Here are some excerpts from the Harris interview.

Harris mentioned her father, who passed away recently, several times during the interview: "He was kind, he was strong. But for me and my mom and my brother and sister, he created a legacy for us. Certainly working day and night I could call him at midnight and he'd still be at his office but he created a legacy of financial security for us, but more importantly he gave us a legacy, his legacy that he lived every -- life of integrity."

She added: "Let me tell you what the truth is. I'm staying. I'm in this race. I'm going to win. And let me tell you how. I'm going to put everything on the line. Everything. Not just my future and my reputation. My father's name. I'm going to take his legacy that he gave to me, everything that I have, and I'm going to put it in this race. I'm going to commit my legacy for my father, $10 million."

Harris noted: "This is everything that I have. And this levels temporarily the playing field, but we are in this race. We are at ground zero. We are recharged, restarting and ready to win."

She was also asked about the lack of party support: "It's been a little surprising, but in January the governor couldn't have been more generous in coming out in his support of me. But quite frankly, for everything else the race isn't going to be won in Washington, D.C. The last time I checked they can't vote for me."

The contrversy surrounding the contributions she received from Mitchell Wade, who also donated to Randy "Duke" Cunningham, also came up. Harris said of the allegations: "If you keep reading on, it says the authorities say that I could not have known. I did not know, and I didn't. ... He promised he was going to bring jobs to my district. And he's a bad guy. But when we found out that he had, at a later date, reimbursed his employees, which by the way, is illegal. ... I took all of that and I did what my father has been committed to for so long. He builds Habitat houses, so we built a home in his name"

In today's PolitiScope, Hotline senior editor John Mercurio writes about the Lieberman-Lamont race, and the "libblog" focus on it, which he says gives a glimpse at a fierce debate Democrats are having with themselves as they prepare to define and reintroduce their party in 2008.

according to HumanEventsOnline's Robert Bluey.

"Conservatives expressed deep disappointment Wednesday following a procedural vote on a $91.8 billion spending bill to pay for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and Hurricane Katrina recovery. They had hoped to offset the new spending with unused government funds, but GOP leaders blocked the plan."

"On his first big vote since being elected majority leader, Boehner avoided embarrassment when the GOP won, 218-200. But in the process, 29 conservative Republican Study Committee members bucked their party leadership, and according to several Capitol Hill aides who spoke to HUMAN EVENTS, those members are very much displeased with Boehner."

"'He cut off the hand that fed him,' lamented one senior House aide, referring to the support conservatives gave Boehner last month when he won his post as GOP leader."

Right here.

And try to explain what it says about pre-emption.

Today, the NRCC and DCCC have dueling briefings for reporters, and we'll let you know this afternoon who said what about which race.

As food for thought, check out this paragraph from NBC's First Read, reporting on the latest NBC News/WSJ poll: "Overall, 2006 is showing some signs of a nationalized election, at least today. Asked which would be more important in determining how they vote, their own representative's position on national issues or their representative's performance in their district, 44% said "national issues" and 40% said performance in the district. That's a greater percentage choosing "national issues" than in October 1994 (35%). Also, 66% say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who "believes that the country needs a major change in direction."

Dem pollster Alan Secrest is confident that his poll showing OH 06's Charlie Wilson winning a primary through write-ins is accurate. The poll shows that, among likely voters, Wilson has a 56% name ID, and only a 6% negative rating. But Larry Harris, representing the non-partisan Mason-Dixon firm, told HRH that the poll sounds "a bit suspect."

Harris said it was "amazing" that he had such low negatives given the well-publicized miscues from Wilson's campaign. And Harris was skeptical about his high name-ID, given that his state Senate district spans just 40% of the CD.

What's the best way to test the viability of a write-in candidacy? For Secrest, this race sets polling precedent -- all his previous clients have been on the ballot. In the trial heat question, he tells respondents that Wilson is running as a write-in. Would they volunteer Wilson's name if not prompted? That question would seem especially relevant for a write-in candidacy where base turnout is significant.[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

Rep. Katherine Harris' (R-FL) big "Hannity" announcement was not a withdrawal but an awkward candidate to camera, "I'm going to win" proclamation. She's staying in Congress and the big news is her decision to dump in $10M.

Looks like Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) has another excuse to make his way around the country to raise money. Remember, the millionaire's amendment doesn't kick in for Nelson unless she dumps the money in AFTER the Florida primary. But, if another Republican chooses to challenge Harris in the primary, then they can raise money in $12K chunks for the primary.

Don't ignore Ret. Gen. Wes Clark:

We hear he plans to be in New Hampshire this Saturday for a series of events. He attends a town hall meeting with Democrats at New England College, visits a veterans home in Tilton, and then helps raise money for the Salem/Windham Democrats in Windham.

He's helping Dems way down the ballot -- members of the House Dem caucus.

This is Clark's first trip to NH in about a year and his second since the '04 election.

He's kept busy since the election, writing books, working with veterans' groups, helping Dems work with veterans groups, raising money for charity, raising money for Dems, and more. And he's got a kick-butt PAC website and a regular podcast.

Check out his schedule after NH: Ohio, Texas, and North Dakota. And that's just by April 1. That's a schedule to rival John Edwards's.

An aide assures us that Clark is focused on helping elect Democrats in 2006.

Check out the wording of this press announcement from Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL). It certainly doesn't sound like she's going to withdraw...

Congresswoman Katherine Harris will appear on Hannity and Colmes tonight at 9 p.m. to announce her plans concerning her candidacy for Florida's U.S. Senate seat.

The Congresswoman will also hold a local press conference, Friday, March 17, 2006 at 4 p.m., at the Wyndham Hotel in Tampa, Florida.

Last weekend Harris released a statement saying she planned to finalize the strategy for a major announcement this week concerning her candidacy for the U.S. Senate.

He'll "aggressively" pursue the nomination.

So what caused him to change his mind?

He's healthy.

The SRLC kicked off a flurry of candidate interviews. And it wasn't just GOPers: Joe Biden, Russ Feingold, and John Edwards managed to get some air time. Hillary Clinton even showed up, appearing on "AC 360" with Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) to talk about the ports deal. John McCain retains his champion status despite only one TV appearance for the month. Edwards' "Meet the Press" appearance was his first broadcast TV interview since we started tracking times in August. And kudos to interviewers Tim Russert and George Stephanopoulos. When "Meet" had Biden and George Allen on in a joint appearance, Russert kept the interview so balanced there was only a few seconds in their time disparity. When Stephanopoulos had Bill Frist on after Feingold, there was only seconds of difference their air time. [EMILY GOODIN]

The importance of the first major GOP presidential cattle call this past weekend might not be known for two years. But at some point we're going to look back on the Southern Republican Leadership Conference and say:

That was the first time Arizona Sen. John McCain dropped the hint of picking Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour as a running mate. Or...

We really didn't understand how much of an asset the Mormon church would be in giving Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney a ground game. Or...

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's straw poll win was the start of a return to respectability on the national stage. In fact, his comeback after a poor performance in 2005 showed he could weather a storm and never give up -- a la John Kerry, circa 2003. Or...

We should have known then that Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee wasn't that serious of a player since he didn't want to tap resources to bus folks across the river for a second place lay-up. Or...

Virginia Sen. George Allen's sustained strength was revealed at the conference, as he got the most votes of any candidate who didn't expend any resources. It was the first evidence that grass-roots elites believed he was the most electable conservative and the candidate the base could rally around.

The likelihood in our mind is that many of these scenarios will play themselves out....

The beauty of our 24/7 news wire, Hotline On Call, is that even when we screw something up (like not including a "Censure" story today), we have a chance to right that wrong. Here's today's Censure story as it should have appeared in The Hotline's noon edition:

CENSURE Sure, That Will Definitely Get Them On Your Side ...

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) accused fellow Dems on 3/14 of "cowering rather than joining him" in his attempt to censure Pres. Bush for unlawfully authorizing the NSA domestic surveillance program. Feingold told reporters that Dems "run and hide" when the admin invokes the war on terror (Kellman, AP, 3/15). Feingold: "I am amazed at Democrats cowering with this president's numbers so low. The administration just has to raise the specter of the war on terror and Democrats run and hide" (Bloomberg, 3/15). Feingold introduced a formal censure resolution on 3/13, condemning Bush's "unlawful authorization of wiretaps of Americans within the United States without obtaining the court orders required," and thus far, "not a single" Dem has "embraced it." Several have said that they want to see the results of a Senate Intel Cmte investigation "before supporting any punitive legislation." Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) said on 3/14 that Feingold should "withdraw" the resolution "because it has no support." Frist: "If the Democrats continue to say no to voting on their own censure resolution, then they ought to drop it and focus on our foreign policy in a positive way" (AP, 3/15).

Ever since she eked out a win in the 6/05 special primary, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH 02) has faced a rocky road. Saturday Night Live parodied her House floor comments criticizing Rep. John Murtha (and the outfit she wore while doing so) and she erroneously claimed endorsements from other GOPers on her website. But her primary opponent, ex-Rep. Bob McEwen, told HRH he wouldn't focus on her personal miscues. Rather, as he did in '05, he'll criticize her support of tax hikes back in the state legislature. He's already beginning a media blitz: he released a radio ad last week, and will soon run TV ads.

But the dynamics of the primary this year are different: In '05, the four credible candidates attacked each other and split the fractured vote. And last year's third-place finisher, Tom Brinkman, strongly supports McEwen now. The key to victory lies in affluent Hamilton Co., the most populous part of the CD (and ex-Rep. Rob Portman's home base). Schmidt finished a strong second to Brinkman there in '05. Will Cincy-area voters overlook Schmidt's rookie mistakes, or will Brinkman's endorsement help push McEwen to victory? JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

The New York Observer reports that NYTer Anne Kornblut plans to cover Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton full-time. But the buried lede, we think, is this paragraph:

"the paper has first serial rights to the investigative biography of Mrs. Clinton currently being reported by Don Van Natta Jr. and former Times reporter Jeff Gerth. That book is scheduled for completion in the fall of 2007, when the paper will have the option of running any news the authors may uncover."

Speaking of Clinton, we hear she joined Ret. Gen. Wes Clark and others at a small reception in DC last night to help raise money for Eric Massa, a candidate for NY 29.

Jon Stewart, on the SRLC straw poll: "No surprise was the poor performance of Congressman Taxhike Gay Sexington" ("Daily Show").

Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) has hired a political director for his re-election bid this year, AP reports. Burns hired Ed Walker, who worked on Republican Pete Coors' unsuccessful bid for Senate in CO in '04. Burns also hired Megan Casey as his camp's new assistant finance director. Casey worked on the '04 campaign of MT GOV candidate Pat Davison, who lost in the GOP primary.

Turns out that the spontaneous grass-roots showing that fueled MA Gov. Mitt Romney's Silver medal at the SRLC wasn't as spontaneous as Team Romney claimed.

AP's Glen Johnson, with an assist from the on-the-scene Ron Fournier, has a story up about who, uhh, seeded those roots.

Twas none other than an exec at MA LG Kerry Healey's husband's investment firm in Beverly, MA, on the North Shore of MA; a long way from the banks of the mighty Mississip.

David French, who organized the trip, told the Hotline on Saturday night that he had had no contact with anyone in Romney's orbit and insisted that the delegates themselves had paid the $225 registration fee.

Below, extended results from our Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll. The second choices are now tallied. The first chart displays the first, second and combined first-and-second choice percentages of the SRLC voters. Sen. George Allen (R-VA) received the highest number of second choice votes, followed by Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA). Coming later this week: some regional breakdowns (i.e. non-TN vs. TN results) as well as the results from our question about Democratic challengers.

                 % First    % Second  % Top Two
Frist              36.9%        9.3%      46.2%
Romney             14.4%       11.3%      25.6
Allen              10.3%       12.3%      22.6
Bush (Write In)    10.3%       11.0%      21.3
McCain              4.6%        8.7%      13.3
Huckabee            3.8%        6.0%       9.7
Giuliani            1.1%        7.1%       8.2
Other (Write In)    2.2%        3.3%       5.5
Gingrich            0.9%        4.3%       5.3
Rice (Write In)     2.2%        2.7%       5.0
Brownback           1.5%        2.5%       4.0
Pataki              2.7%        0.6%       3.2
Barbour (Write In)  0.8%        0.4%       1.3
Hagel               0.2%        0.7%       0.9
No Second Choice     N/A       14.5%      14.5

In Order Of Second Choice Preference
                 % First    % Second  % Top Two
No Second Choice     N/A       14.5%      14.5%
Allen              10.3%       12.3%      22.6%
Romney             14.4%       11.3%      25.6%
Bush (Write In)    10.3%       11.0%      21.3%
Frist              36.9%        9.3%      46.2%
McCain              4.6%        8.7%      13.3%
Giuliani            1.1%        7.1%       8.2%
Huckabee            3.8%        6.0%       9.7%
Gingrich            0.9%        4.3%       5.3%
Other (Write In)    2.2%        3.3%       5.5%
Rice (Write In)     2.2%        2.7%       5.0%
Brownback           1.5%        2.5%       4.0%
Hagel               0.2%        0.7%       0.9%
Pataki              2.7%        0.6%       3.2%
Barbour (Write In)  0.8%        0.4%       1.3%

The last Dem to win Greene Co., MO, in a presidential race was Bill Clinton.

And that's why Nora Walcott, the executive dir. of the Greene Co. Dem Party, was so keen on inviting ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner to speak to at their annual Jackson Day dinner this year.

Says Walcott of Dems in her county: "They see Warner as a candidate who can do for Missouri what Bill Clinton did in Illinois" -- that is, break a cycle of Republican dominance. "He's a map-changer."

Warner, busily preparing a WH '08 campaign along the twin axes of pragmatic competence and Southern outreach, quickly accepted.

Walcott announced the 4/7 dinner in late February. Two weeks later, all her tickets are gone and she's finding tables to fill an overflow room. Walcott: "We're outpacing 100 percent of where we were last year. We're selling these like mad."

The dinner's pedigree is impressive. Greene County's Jackson Day dinner is one of the oldest continously running Dem dinners in the country. In 1920, William Jennings Bryan was its first speaker. It's played host to Kennedys (Ted and John), Harry Truman and Adlai Stevenson.

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

New York is a big state with its share of aging Reps. A number of the people who make it on to this year's list could end up with Congressional pins sooner rather than later, and the vultures are already circling a number of older members. Of note, while many of our Futures Market stars come from the ranks of state legislatures, NYers are more excited about county officials throughout the state, where leadership -- or lack thereof -- is more evident than it is in Albany, where a member is one of 150 Assembs. or 62 Sens. Throughout the state, Dems seem more optimistic about their upstate prospects, while GOPers are looking forward to races on Long Island. [REID WILSON]

Anybody want to wager on how much longer this web site will stay up on the WH server?

Turns out that ex-Bush aide/alleged electronics connoisseur Claude Allen did one of those "Ask the White House" online discussions on 2/17, his last day on the job. The chat took place over a month after Allen reported to CoS Andy Card that he had been cited for theft following a "misunderstanding" at a Montgomery Co. Target and 8 days after he publicly announced he wanted to, um, "spend more time with his family."

As HBO finally rolls out the painfully overdue sixth season of "The Sopranos" and as New Jersey voters begin tuning into a 2006 campaign that will touch two of the show's themes - corruption and leadership -- it's worth asking who New Jersey's real boss would vote for.

The Sopranos hail from Essex County, a blue county in a blue state. Moreover, Tony and his crew come from a working class tradition. So is he a Democrat? An aide to a New Jersey Democratic congressman suggests, "Tony would definitely vote Dem. If you look at the businesses he's involved in -- carting and the racketeering of unions -- those are businesses controlled by Dems."

If you've seen a single episode of "The Sopranos," you know there's plenty about Democrats that Tony wouldn't approve of: Liberals, for instance. He once told Meadow, "It may be the 1990's out there, but it's the 1950's in here." [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

Today a spokesperson announced that Snow will delay a long-planned trip to Tanzania and South Africa to deal with some issues on Capitol Hill. Spokesperson Tony Fratto told The Hotline that Snow believed pending legislation on the debt ceiling and CFIUS reform legislation merited his immediate attention enough to delay the trip.

But is this a delay or a cancellation? A Hotline source says Snow met with officials at the Office of Presidential Personnel this morning, and that Snow's calendar has been cleared for Thursday afternoon and all of Friday.

Snow's unusual scheduling changes come the same day as Peter Baker's article in today's Washington Post suggesting that WH staffers are "wearing down," the same day as a profile of WH CoS Andrew Card says he "sounds like a man about to lose his job," and just three days after Interior Sec. Gale Norton announced her resignation. (For more on the turnover, or just the rumors of turnover, see today's Hotline)

So, while this could be another of the ever-present Snow-retirement and Card-to-Treasury rumors, at least some staffers at Treasury believe their boss may be on his way out the door, and in the very near future. [REID WILSON]

Did Bill Frist also send all his voters to pick the NCAA brackets?

Harvard-educated atty. Michael Tenenbaum (R) could be one of the luckiest candidates in recent years. He wouldn't be in the limelight if Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA 24) gave advance notice that he wouldn't seek re-election; instead he announced just hours before the 3/10 filing deadline.

The lateness of Gallegly's decision is unusual. Did he drop out to prevent political rivals from running, or is he facing serious health concerns? Either way, he's given Tenenbaum an excellent opportunity to become the party's nominee in the solidly GOP district. (CA 24 gave Bush 56% of the '04 vote and has a 45-34% GOP tilt in voter registration.) Whoever wins would face minister Jill Martinez, running unopposed for the Dem nomination.

Could other candidates qualify for the ballot? It's unlikely -- state law is quite rigid, offering no loopholes for candidates to enter even if an incumbent withdraws. If Gallegly wins the primary, he'd likely win re-election and then step down. But if the party establishment supports Tenenbaum, his once long-shot bid could turn into a seat in Congress.[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

And Bush calls it a fee.

But to his potential opponents, it might seem like a...tax.

From the AP: "Gov. Mitt Romney said Monday he has yet to decide whether he favors a legislative proposal to assess a fee on companies that do not provide health insurance to their employees, but he suggested a reason he might support it."

"The Republican chief executive, speaking with reporters after a breakfast speech to a business group, said the state already charges businesses that cover their employees an additional fee of $62 per worker to fund the so-called "free care pool" for indigent care."

"For that reason, the proposed $295-per-worker assessment, which would be charged on companies that do not provide insurance, could be viewed as an alteration of a targeted, existing fee, rather than a new tax."

"Since taking office in 2003, Romney has insisted he will not support any new tax, although he has supported an array of increases in fees and fines that he argues are targeted. He is especially loathe to break his campaign pledge as he considers a run for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination."

Who'll replace Trent Wisecup as pol. dir for Mitt Romney's PAC?

Julie Teer, who serves as Romney's spokeswoman today. She'll move to the Commonwealth PAC at the end of this month, serving as pol. dir with enhanced responsibilities for communications and the press. Teer was the NH state dir. for BC'04, was comm. dir. for then Rep. John Sununu's '02 Senate bid against ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, and was formerly a senior adviser to Sen. Rick Santorum at the Senate GOP Conference. She began her political career as a spokesperson for Sen. Spencer Abraham. Sally Canfeld, ex-policy dir. to House Speaker Dennis Hastert, joins the PAC as policy dir. at the end of the month. Longtime Romney aide Spencer Zwick is finance dir.

Each Monday, Hotline TV editor Emily Goodin will pack a dozen hours of Sunday show news and analysis into one digestible post.

'08 FEVER SWEEPS THE SUNDAY SHOWS

After the SRLC, '08 fever hit the Sunday shows. Sens. George Allen (R-VA) and Joe Biden (D-DE) appeared together on "Meet the Press." The duo, dubbed by Tim Russert as "Candidate A" and "Candidate B" discussed Iraq and Iran before moving on to '08.

Allen was asked about his third place finish in the Hotline straw poll: "Bill Frist is popular in Tennessee." As for second-place finisher Gov. Mitt Romney, Allen remarked: "That's fine. It's good. It's a straw poll." Russert pointed out that Romney's "a Northeasterner and you're a Southerner." Which prompted Biden to pat Allen on the back and tell him: "Hang on, man, it doesn't matter. Don't worry about that. Don't worry about that number."

Allen responded: "It's OK. I don't think it matters much at all. ... Actually it wasn't just the South. There were folks from the Midwest there, too. I saw folks from Michigan and Iowa and so forth. At any rate, it was fun. The main thing of that is great hospitality there from folks in Tennessee, and there were a good number from Mississippi, and it was I think a good chance for us to all get rejuvenated. And that's what most important. I had a great time at it and I think that for this having any meaning, it's kind of like a pick-up game."

Russert: "Not even a scrimmage?"

Allen: "Intrasquad scrimmages matter. That determines who starts. Pick-up games are just fun."

Here's how the transcription service rendered what our editor Chuck Todd said on Saturday night:

"CHUCK TODD, THE HOTLINE: I want to thank my staff, Mark Endminder (ph), Ethan McCarthy (ph), Jonathan Martin, Norman Macalvanna (ph) and Mike Mimole (ph), who all served as poll takers."

Uh, that's Mike Memoli, Nora McAlavanah, Aoife McCarthy and Marc Ambinder, along with Mr. Martin.

We heard some buzz about this last night, but this morning's front-page story in the Tennessean about the hometown boy's big win also includes some interesting nuggets on how MA Gov. Mitt Romney was able to score his impressive second-place finish.

Romney, very quietly, worked with some Volunteer state supporters to bring in some college students from Union University. The school, which, btw, is affiliated with the Southern Baptist Convention, is in Jackson, TN, in between Memphis and Nashville.

Also note in the story the efforts of Romney's Southern backers to cast him as the best candidate in the field for evangelicals.

We just happened to bump into a buoyant (well, for him) Sen Maj Leader Bill Frist in the Peabody lobby this morning. Chatting with us as he and his wife, Karyn, walked out to their car, last night's victor sought to downplay the magnitude of the straw poll.

Still, though, he admitted with a grin: "Any politician likes to win."

He said he was encouraged by the show of support, but added that he would use it to boost those Republicans up in '06, and particularly those vying to replace him in the Senate. Keeping his seat in GOP hands, Frist said, was important to his legacy. What he didn't say was that the prospect of a Dem taking it over would diminish his future prospects.

Asked if Sen. John McCain's gambit to have the SRLC delegates write in Pres Bush's name rather than his backfired, Frist observed that the delegates did want to support their President, but noted that many of them had "driven 6 to 8 hours" to participate and wanted to take part in choosing their party's next WH nominee.

As for how he will parlay his "w" in Memphis, Frist was on message: The Senate takes up debate on the FY '07 budget tomorrow and he is focused on that and other Senate business. With that, it was into his car, on the way to the airport, and back to the less friendly terrain of DC, Harry Reid and, well, budget resolutions. But as he left, the always even-keeled Leader went with a smile.

After five hours of voting and with more than 1,400 ballots cast, The Hotline SRLC Straw Poll has come to a close with a tremendous turnout. Sen. Bill Frist (TN) led the pack with nearly 37% of the vote, followed by MA Gov. Mitt Romney with 14%. Sen. George Allen (VA) was tied for third place with Pres. Bush (10%), despite Bush being a write-in candidate.

Hotline Straw Poll Unofficial Results

Candidate             Raw          %age

Bill Frist            526          36.9%

Mitt Romney           205          14.4

George Allen          147          10.3

Pres. Bush (write in) 147          10.3

John McCain            66           4.6

Mike Huckabee          54           3.8

Write In (Not GB/CR)   43           3.0

George Pataki          38           2.7

Condi Rice (write in)  32           2.2

Sam Brownback          22           1.5

Rudy Giuliani          15           1.1

Newt Gingrich          13           0.9

Chuck Hagel             3           0.2


2nd Choices Of Frist Voters (%age Only)

George Allen                  18.4%

Mitt Romney                   12.0

Rudy Giuliani                 12.0

John McCain                   10.6

Pres. Bush (write in)          7.0

Mike Huckabee                  4.0

Newt Gingrich                  3.4

Sam Brownback                  2.7

Condi Rice (write in)          2.1

Chuck Hagel                    1.0

George Pataki                  0.8

None                          24.1

Other                          3.0

Some notable info from the unofficial results:

Total ballots cast now:                        1427

Total non-spoiled ballots cast:                1311

Total ballots cast in '98:                      858

Spoiled ballots                                 116 (8.1%)

Total TN voters:                                742 (52%)

Number of Frist's votes outside TN:              97		

Percent of Frist's votes from TN:                82%

# Of TN voters who did not choose Frist first:  313 (42%)

Among the 526 voters who made Frist their top choice, Allen was the leading second-place vote getter with 18.4%. He was followed by Romney (12%), ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (10.8%), John McCain (10.6%), Bush (7.0%) and AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (3.4%). Nearly one in four Frist voters, though, indicated no second-place preference.

With more than a 66% increase in voter turnout from the '98 SRLC straw poll, these results set the stage for the GOP WH battle that lies ahead. Stay tuned to The Hotline and On Call throughout the week for continued results, methodological notes and insider analysis.

News from the DNC's rules and bylaws committee: "One or two new states also would be allowed to hold primaries immediately after New Hampshire under the proposal agreed to in principle."

Iowa's relieved it'll still get to go first.

Says our spy in the meeting: "Harold Ickes came in late, and had a corner seat at the front table. What an odd meeting; the commitee voted to accept the report for the purpose of having the staff start drafting rules, but with the understanding that every provision is subject to debate and proposed amendment before a final vote."

Chris Cillizza calls Sen. Bill Frist's address "uneven" and his reception "more polite" than "passionate."

By contrast, Cillizza writes that Sen. George Allen's speech was enthusiastically recieved.

No doubt pleased about the infusion of tax dollars into their city, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr (D) and Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton (D) were just spotted lunching at one of the Peabody's restaurants. Interestingly, Ford was warmly greeted by many a GOP delegate. Perhaps just Southern Hospitality, but in a hotel crawling with Republicans from all over Tennessee, Ford has gotta feel good about the open signs of affection.

An update to Chris Cillizza's scoop about Trent Wisecup departure from Gov. Mitt Romney's Commonwealth PAC.

Romney spokesperson Julie Teer would only say that "Governor Romney thanks Trent for his contributions and wishes him well in the future."

Two different people familiar with the situation said that Wisecup clashed repeatedly with Romney's chief of staff, Beth Myers, especially after Wisecup partner Michael Murphy formally left Romney's orbit. Most of the conflicts involved what Romney should say when he travelled outside the Commonwealth and over how aggresively the PAC should plan for a possible 2008 bid. Wisecup declined to comment on the conflicts.

Myers is a Republican veteran who is seen by admirers and detractors as taciturn and focused. She keeps close counsel with a small circle of other MA-based Romney aides and advisers including Alex Dunn, Romney's deputy chief of staff, businessman Bob White, and Spencer Zwick, who runs Romney's personal office.

BTW: unrelated to Wisecup departure, but the buzz at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference is that Romney, if he runs for President, will base his campaign headquarters in Michigan, not from Massachusetts.

Could Michigan being moving up the 2008 primary calendar?

MI GOP Chair Saul Anuzis is optimistic that Michigan will join South Carolina on the first Tuesday of Feb. in the 2008 presidential primary season. Others familiar with the situation aren't as optimistic about Michigan moving up as there may not be 100% agreement in either party to go along with this. What we do know is that there is a concerted effort by some in Michigan to move up the primary (possibly even get the state to sanction and pay for it) to the kickoff of the non-IA-NH primary window.

This has ramifications for both sides of the presidential aisle if suddenly South Carolina isn't the non-NH kickoff state. Diluting that day with more primaries could actually enchance the importance of IA (a la 2004) and decrease the importance, of well, every other state. News of this possibility is leaking out just as the DNC primary calendar commission is meeting right now in DC. As we learn more, we'll let you know.

Chris Cillizza has the scoop.

"Trent Wisecup, the director of Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's Commonwealth political action committee, has quit his post. Reached Saturday morning, Wisecup confirmed his departure. "Governor Romney is a great governor," he said. "But I have decided to consider other options." Wisecup said he will move from Boston back to Michigan as he weighs his options."

"Wisecup's departure comes as a surprise since he had decided to stay on with Romney even after the Governor parted ways with Mike Murphy -- his longtime media consultant and the founding member of DC Navigators, the consulting company in which Wisecup is a partner. A source close to the situation said that Wisecup's decision was due in large part to conflicts with Beth Myers, the governor's chief of staff. Myers is expected to play a major role in the expected Romney presidential bid."

The only "campaigning" evident overnight for the SRLC straw poll was a flyer slipped under the doors at the Peabody Hotel claiming that "National GOP Leadership Offers Support" For the "Write-in President Bush" campaign. Included on the flyer are quotes from the speeches Trent Lott, Ken Mehlman and Haley Barbour gave to the SRLC yesterday. Also included is the quote a WH spokesperson gave to The Hotline.

There were no hotel voice mails as far as we know.

We know at least half our audience is totally in work mode today so here are some notto-miss non-Straw poll headlines from Saturday's papers:

-- John Kerry's official "I'm considering it again" as done by the Boston Globe. From Kerry: "When you get knocked on your ass and lose a race, you've got to stop and reflect on what you're doing, why you're doing it, what matters, and what's important. And I did." From the article: "Kerry's efforts to launch another presidential bid have prompted grumbling from some Democrats. ... Some party insiders expect that leading fund-raisers and strategists will push Kerry out before the race starts, in favor of a fresh face for a party desperate to retake power."

-- The MA GOV Dem primary is now a 3-way with Chris Gabrieli.

-- Warren Beatty is trying to play peacemaker in the CA GOV Dem primary.

-- Also, later this morning, the DNC primary calendar commission meets to discuss the plan that could insert a caucus or two in between IA and NH. The Des Moines Register's Beaumont has a curtain-raiser on the meeting and how it actually could help Vilsack's presidential hopes if there is a caucus or two after IA and before NH. We'll have full updates later today.

On a weekend billed to be the beginning of the post-Bush WH, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) let an increasing Bush weary party know that he, for one, is not tired of defending the president. McCain, who repeated the phrase, "the president did exactly the right thing" when discussing a variety of recent controversies, offered a new brand of straight talk. But the straight talk, he said was not for 2008 -- it was all about 2006.

Encouraging the audience not to get wrapped up in 2008, McCain said the group should be focused on the congressional elections in November, which is interesting since he highlighted areas where GOPers are vulnerable and have tried to steer away from Bush, specifically Social security, Iraq, the port issue. McCain hit on some of his trademark issues, saying earmark reform was the solution to the great challenge the party faces on ethics. He even referenced a questionable earmark in the home state of Sen. Conrad Burns (R) to make his point. But he carefully noted that when a vote on reform was on the table, it was held up by Dems trying to score points on Dubai. So, he said, if Americans are upset with the lack of reform, they can lay the blame squarely at the hands of the Democratic Party.

McCain didn't endear himself to many earlier this year when he was part of the Gang of 14 filibuster compromise. Tonight he made an effort to explain his participation. He strongly condemned Dems for voting en masse against Alito, and teased the audience by singling out a "senator from New York." It was, he said. Chuck Schumer. It took the audience a few long seconds to begin there "boos." (Perhaps they were thinking "Clinton.")

Again, McCain was the only speaker to speak at length about Iraq, strongly endorsing the administration's stance. He directly confronted Dems who say the administration lied about WMD, saying anyone who does so is lying themselves. Then, he quickly pivoted to Iran, again supporting a hard-line stance in the face of suspected nuclear weapons development. McCain seemed to rush through the issue, and the crowd seemed more than happy for him to get on with it.

In 2004, much was made of what seemed to be a pained look on McCain's face when he campaigned with Bush. Tonight, McCain even made light of rumors of him joining John Kerry's ticket. So, call it what you will. Was it Vintage McCain -- the so-called maverick who has the courage to break with his party on principle? Or is it McCain, the true believer on fiscal and defense issues who is the pitbull Democrats should fear most (remember, Barack?). With a dose of supposed straight talk, it's hard to say. But for whatever questions remained in the minds of his audience, his performance still earned some positive reaction. As one delegate said leaving the hall: "For going into the devils den, he did a great job."

Some more quick hits:

If Team McCain was worried about how warm the welcome would be, McCain can thank ex-OK Rep. J.C. Watts for doing a "heckuva job" warming up the crowd. As the audience was on its feet and Watts made his exit, McCain wasted no time taking his place at the podium. (More on Watts tomorrow).

In his opening comedy routine, McCain (a) made light of the poor track record of Arizona White House hopefuls (but this isn't about
'08, right John?) He also seemed to mix up Zsa Zsa Gabor and Liz Taylor while having a laugh at the expense of Sen. John Warner. (Warner was married to Taylor, but McCain sort of bungled the line and it took a while for the titters to reach full volume.) Another crowd pleaser: "Standing with our president" gets a standing O. But for all the day's hype about his "Write In W. Campaign," the one devoted to his request was flatly delivered and consequently fell a bit flat. (The audience seemed to agree that it was important to focus on 2006.)

McCain doesn't just support Bush on policy. He also seems to have taken cues from POTUS on town hall-style speaking. In true Oprah fashion, he broke out the hands free mic and did the town hall strut.
McCain ended with his familiar (yet still compelling) story about a fellow Vietnam POW.

We knew that Trent Lott was getting cozy with John McCain, but after just listening to Haley Barbour speak is there another Mississippian ready to get on board the Straight Talk Express?

Addressing a not-quite-full ballroom in the after-dinner slot, Barbour picked up the McCain banner of the weekend: all the straw polls in the world pale in comparison to the task ahead in '06.

And later, in emotional remarks about the impact of Katrina upon his native state, the governor singled out McCain for praise, saying that the "deficit hawk" came to the aid of Mississipi as they sought federal relief to rebuild the coast. Barbour said that McCain carried the message that the package that Sen's Lott and Cochran were pushing was "really a conservative solution."

The mentions of McCain, though, won little applause from the audience. In fact, Barbour seemed to in general almost lecture the group, directly prodding them for applause at one point.

Beyond the McCain bouquet, Barbour spoke of two necessary components for the GOP to be successful this fall. First, "big turnouts help Republicans." Barbour alluded to his own race in '03, which drew the most voters in the history of the state, and Pres Bush's 04 re-elect as examples.

Second, he said "when campaigns are about issues, Republicans win." Barbour asserted "that most Americans agree with us on the issues." Dems, Barbour said, want to focus elections on "emotion, scandal and personalities."

Also notable was Barbour's taking two direct knocks at the news media -- of which there were many prominent members in the back of the room. He said that it was they, the press, who were driving the unhealthy obsession with '08 WH politicking. Further, he praised the Bush admin's response to Katrina, saying that the feds were of great assistance -- "despite the complaints of the news media." Incidentally, Barbour also said that "faith-based group have been the backbone of our recovery," drawing immeditate and sustained applause from the true-believing audience.

Clearly still consumed (and for good reason) by all things Katrina, Barbour closed his remarks by saying that "it may be years, but the Mississippi Gulf Coast will be back bigger and better than ever before." At this, Barbour won his biggest and longest ovation yet.

Citing a "a medical issue that is yet to be resolved," Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA) announced today he will not stand for re-election this fall. Today is CA's filing deadline.

The Ventura County Star has the story.

From Slate:

"News today may shed light on the mystery of Allen's resignation. According to the Montgomery County Police Department, Allen was arrested yesterday and charged in a felony theft and a felony theft scheme. According to a department press release, Allen conducted approximately 25 fraudulent "refunds" in Target and Hecht's stores in Maryland. On Jan. 2, a Target employee apprehended Allen after observing him receive a refund for merchandise he had not purchased. Target then contacted the Montgomery County Police. According to a source familiar with the case, Target and the police had been observing Allen since October 2005."

Senior Republican officials are not happy with Sen. John McCain for urging his supporters at the SRLC to write in President Bush's name on the Hotline's straw poll. The officials felt that the gesture would be interpreted as political and would call attention to Pres. Bush's precarious position in public opinion polls.

Asked for their response, Dana Perino, a White House spokesperson, told the Hotline: "We certainly appreciate the support and spirit about the gesture." More Perino: "The president is excited about 2006. He looks forward to campaigning for the Republican Party for the 2006 elections; we are the party of ideas and cohesion and it is because of that that we are able to get things done for the American people."

Pressed as to whether the White House would like to see the president get votes, Perino would only say that "the president wants Republican candidates to win in 2006 and we're focused on making that happen."

On the theory that's what good for the goose is good for the mockingbird, Democrats today launched VeryFancyFrist.com, which details the TN Senator's purported proclivities for high living.

It's a response to FancyFord.com, which Republicans launched to poke fun at Rep. Harold Ford's alleged munficence. Ford is running for TN Senate; Republicans have a hot and fractious three-way Republican primary and GOPers worry that Ford is deftly moving towards a position of strength in the general.

Says the DSCC's Phil Singer: "Its hardly surprising that a week after Congressman Ford challenged the White House on its plan to turn our ports over to a country linked to Al Qaeda that national Republicans launched a website aimed at smearing him."

Even his staff has their doubts.

In an e-mail touting a very favorable New York Times Magazine cover story by Matt Bai, the Forward Together PAC staff asks: "Do we love the cover? Well, let's just say we respect the artistic license of the very talented and good-looking people at The Magazine. But lest you think he wore purple, photographer Alexei Hay was kind enough to share some of the ones they didn't 'color adjust.'" (See them after the jump.)

Unlike some of his first forays into presidential politics in SC and other places, MA Gov. Mitt Romney was much more respectful of the state he governs.

He stressed two phrases over and over, "Republican governors can make a difference" and "Republican principles can make a difference ... even in a blue state like Massachusetts."

The speech was filled with references of things he did in Massachusetts that he thought would go over well with this conservative crowd. There were multiple references to his fight to get the English language used in the public schools.

In fact, he was so pro-Massachusetts in his speech, he even got in a few quotes about the state's favorite "conservative" son, John Adams. He had a reference to Adams biographer David McCullough as well as Abigail Adams and John Q. Adams.

Romney came in with an acknowledgement of the SRLC's unofficial host (and likely '08 rival), Bill Frist. Romney started singing the lyrics to "Davey Crockett" and alterted the last line to, "Doctorrrr, Doctor Bill Frist, king of the wild frontier."

It got a decent laugh.

Among other topics Romney touched on:

-- push for the election of Republican governors in 2006 (he is chairman of the RGA after all). He gave an extra shout out to Haley Barbour and Jeb Bush and allowing the crowd the cheer.

-- he seconded Pres. Bush's renewed call for the line-item veto.

-- he had a whole riff describing what the culture of America was. It's where he talked about gay marriage. He also quoted Rick Warren of "Purpose Driven Life" fame.

-- The speech opened and closed with 2002 Winter Olympic Anecdotes, including in his conclusion which tied together the closing ceremonies of the 2002 Games and a remembrance to 9/11. Basically, he ended his speech with Mom and Apple Pie.

Romney has a very cool and calm speaking style that is part motivational speaker, part Wally Cleaver. It's the Beaver part, though, that he probably has to cut back on, no matter how genuine it actually is. [CHUCK TODD]

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will urge SRLC conference registrants tonight to write in the name of Pres. George W. Bush when they vote in the Hotline's '08 presidential straw poll.

McCain, in a copy of his prepared remarks distributed to reporters by a top adviser, says that "straw polls are entertaining, my friends, even extremely early ones." But "I think we have bigger things to worry about. So if any friends here are thinking about voting for me, please don't. Just write in President Bush's name. For the next three years, with the country at war, he's our President, and the only one who must have our support today."

An aide to a rival campaign called McCain's decision to try and opt out "a ploy" and predicted that most straw poll voters would find it too cute by half. Another said he was "not surprised" because McCain was not expected to do well in the straw poll anyway. Still, Bush retains significantly higher job approval ratings among southern Republicans than just about any other democraphic group.

Republican sources said that Gov. Haley Barbour, in his planned remarks, also intends to ask attendees to support Pres. Bush in the straw poll.

Hotline editor-in-chief Chuck Todd said, "We thank Sen. McCain for raising the profile of the straw poll and for acknowledging that the results matter."

So what if Republicans don't follow McCain's advice? Would that be interperted as a bigger repudiation of McCain than a poor straw poll showing? Alternatively -- even if SRLCers aren't moved by McCain's gesture, would it play well with Republicans across the country who aren't subject to the elite's interpretation of straw polls?

In advance of a speech that we're told will be a red meat extravaganza by RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, the RNC released a web video that pokes fun at Democrats for refusing to coalesce behind a leader.

Asks Mehlman: "Is it Howard Dean, who compares the United States to Iran? Or John Kerry, who worries about American soldiers terrorizing women and children in the dead of night? Or Hillary Clinton, who has likened the Republican management of the House of Representatives to that of a plantation?"

His speech plays the fear card quite explicitly. Mehlman: "Do you want the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee to be someone who is so partisan that he once attacked a Republican judicial nominee for not giving enough to charity ... at the same time that nominee's wife was incurring huge hospital bills for terminal cancer?

"Do you want the Chairman of the tax-writing committee in the House to be someone who said that tax increases would spur the economy? Do you want the Speaker of the House, the number three person in the line of Presidential succession, to be someone who said, less than a year after 9/11, "I don’t really consider ourselves at war?"

Mehlman calls the '06 election "real" and "urgent."

No trip to Memphis (or anywhere else in Tennessee, if you ask us) is complete unless you take advantage of the local cuisine.

Which means one thing -- BBQ.

Rendezvous and Corky's are, of course, the biggies.

But the beauty of the Bluff City is that there are many, many local 'q joints.

So whether ribs or shoulder are your thing, make sure you get your fill.

This is a great reference guide for some spots that may not be in your AAA guide:

http://www.southernfoodways.com/oral_history/tnbbq/M00_index.shtml

The first campaign paraphernalia targeting straw poll voters is a sticker that urges people to write in President Bush and "Focus on 2006" and "Support Our President."

The stickers are ubiquitous. A senior Republican strategist tells the Hotline that McCain supporters are behind the effort. A very on-message organizer of the campaign insists that the stickers are simply a grassroots effort to channel Republicans' proper energies toward 2006.

Update: the "Bush supporters" now have 11 x 14 printed signs. This isn't some "grassroots" idea, it's an organized effort; we're continuing our search for the folks who are paying for it.

The Rocky Mountain News's M.E. Sprengelmeyer scoops that Interior Secretary Gale Norton, "the first woman to serve in the job," will step down this afternoon. Get the full story here on the CO native's departure.

UPDATE: The Denver Post e-mails us that they were the first paper with the news, scooping the Rocky Mountain News by several minutes. Here's their story, written by Mike Soraghan.

Rumors and more rumors.

Did Bill Frist's VolPAC really pay for 500 Tennesseans to attend the SRLC? (Not nearly half that amount.)

Is Virginia representedy by 400 Allen-ites? (There are about fifty registered attendees.)

There's an effort by some GOP officials to convince folks to vote for Pres. Bush. (True, sort of: GOPers are passing out a "Write In President Bush -- Support Our Troops" sticker.) (See our update, above.)

Ron Kaufman is wearing a cowboy hat? (True.)

The Draft Condi folks are in the house? (And how -- they even are running a radio ad in Memphis, although it's not clear that any of the registrants will listen to the radio during their stay.)

And then there is this delicious dollop of deep-fried Dixie revenge served up this morning by Trent Lott via CNN's Morning Grind:

"Sen. Trent Lott (R-Mississippi) told the Grind he believes the poll -- that will be conducted by The Hotline at the
Southern Republican Leadership Conference -- is 'a rigged deal' and
should not serve as a barometer to determine who might be the best candidate for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008. 'Frist is bussing people in,' Lott said, referring to Senate Majority
Bill Frist (R-Tennessee), whose political organization is working to ensure he wins this unscientific early test of election viability. 'These are not real delegates. These are people being bussed in to produce the results. It is a rigged deal. It doesn't matter.'"

More on the Frist/Lott tension from somebody who knows a thing or two about the South and national politics. Mississippi native/longtime Boston Globe political reporter Curtis Wilkie was quoted in this morning's Memphis Commercial Appeal as saying "it's an understatement to say" that Frist won't be able "to count on Senator Lott's support." Wilkie: "And generally, when you have a candidate coming out of a region, it's not helpful when you have a major player from that region being not only not supportive but very much opposed to you."

Remember, Lott will be squiring John McCain around at the reception tonight for all those Mississippians who made the drive up I-55.

Nancy Pelosi has had to grapple with not a few delicate issues in her tenure leading House Dems.

But now she faces one that is as sticky as any of the others. Well, at least in CA 08 and throughout NorCal it is.

Yup, she got asked at her weekly presser about the explosive and exhaustive new book Chronicling SF Giant Barry Bonds' alleged juice use.

And Pelosi's verdict? Innocent until proven guilty. But doesn't the book conclusively prove Bonds' guilt? Well, she hasn't read it yet.

San Fran Chronicle's blog has the full story, including her mindfulness of just what the Bonds name means to the City By The Bay.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=14&entry_id=3427

Get all the latest news and info and insider tidbits. And at 9:05 pm ET, we'll post the results of the presidential preference question.

Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) has a new, dynamic, interactive and flashily-designed blog.

It's more of a website, really. The host calls it "blogocracy" which sounds suspiciously like "technocracy," because there are lots of rules and guidelines and funny quirks. Some are sensible, and others are experimentally weird. They're designed to induce participation.

For example: "The new blog is also what we call a 'blogocracy,' meaning that you, the online community, determine which user articles are posted. Here's how it works. When a user creates a blog entry and presses "submit," that entry is not immediately posted to the blog. Instead, it goes into a holding area called the "Voting Booth" where other users can view it. If someone likes it, he or she will give it a thumbs-up vote. If he/she doesn't like it, he/she will give it a thumbs-down vote. If an entry gets ten or more thumbs up votes, it gets posted. If it gets three or more thumbs-down votes, it gets tossed. That way, you guys act as quality-control officers, and you get to determine what we talk about on the blog. "

"What if you just want to post something without having it voted upon? You have two options. One would be to make a comment, as comments are posted automatically. The other option is to create a diary entry. Unlike a blog entry, a diary entry does not need to receive votes to be posted. Instead, it is automatically posted to your personal diary page and to the general Diaries page as soon as you submit it. The downside is that diary entries do not appear in the prominent "Open Mic" section on the home page, nor in the various blog entry sections in the horizontal menu: News, Arguments and Analyses, Action, Quick Posts, and All. Those sections are reserved for blog entries only. So, think of blog entries are submissions to a public forum, and think of diary entries as more private journal entries that others can read."

We could continue, but you get the idea. It's cool, though, and bound to be copied.

George Takei, Mr Sulu from Star Trek, is in Washington today and and will the aftenroon on Capitol Hill.

Fresh out of the closet, Mr. Takei and his partner Brad are in town for the Human Rights Campaign's board meeting. Today, they'll meet with...

Rep. Mike Honda at 11:30 a.m.
Sen. Barbara Boxer at 2:15 pm
Rep. Henry Waxman at 3pm
Sen. Dianne Feinstein at 4 pm

This spring, Takei will travel across the country with HRC on a nationwide speaking tour.

A day after Jack Abramoff was revealed as saying this: "Every appropriation we wanted [from Burns's committee] we got. Our staffs were as close as they could be. They practically used Signatures as their cafeteria. I mean, it's a little difficult for him to run from that record."

Burns' Senate re-election campaign is releasing a new television ad that makes just about the same point: Burns is good about shaking money out of Congress.

Here's the script:

ANNCR: Three-point seven percent.

That was Montana's unemployment rate in December. It is the lowest ever-and 21% below the national average. Senator Conrad Burns has brought over $2 billion dollars in federal funds to Montana --- to strengthen our economy and create good paying jobs.

Conrad's work is paying off with....nearly $80 million dollars for road construction secured in 2005 --- protecting and creating thousands of jobs. $78 million secured in 2005 Highway Bill.

$15 million dollars for bio-diesel and bio-product development --- vital for Eastern Montana's economic future. Tens of millions for research and universities- to bring biomedical firms with good paying jobs.
More than $69 million in federal money for research to Montana universities.

And Senator Burns is a pioneer in distance learning and telemedicine…bringing high-tech companies to Montana—with high-speed Internet-and hundreds of new, good jobs. With his experience and seniority—no one is doing more to create a future of opportunities than Senator Conrad Burns.

CB: I'm Conrad Burns and I approved this message.

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

Two up-and-coming young firebrands leap out at us in NM, one on each side of the aisle. Both were described as biding their time until their office of choice opens up. One is a county sheriff, an office from which many GOPers seem to move up, and another is the chair of the state's Public Regulatory Commis. and son of the current Speaker of the House. Both have the personality, the profile and the connections to make serious bids for fed or statewide office as soon as they choose to do so. [REID WILSON]

When Democrats discuss the mundane subject of voter databases, they can't do it without a public intra-party squabble that's a proxy for a debate about either (a) the party's next presidential race or (b) whether the party chairman is reforming the party out of a snowball's chance in a post-global warming Alaska to get anywhere.

Tom Edsall reports in the Washington Post that Harold Ickes, a founder of America Coming Together (ACT) and a former WH DCoS to Bill Clinton, is raising money to build a database of voters. He'll sell it to left-leaning interest groups who crave the database's promise of precise and efficient voter targeting.

With Ickes' encouragement, Edsall portayed the Ickes effort, called Data Warehouse, as the latest incarnation in the philosophical struggle between Democratic Party leaders. What's the purpose of the DNC? What should a party leader do? Whose interests should Howard Dean serve?

One foundational theory holds that the DNC should be a general election vehicle. It should spend its money to build a monster database of center-left-leaning voters and spend years refining and testing the most advanced targeting and persuasion techniques. When the party chooses its nominee, the DNC will become the engine of the campaign.

Dean's assumption is different. He believes -- and those who elected him to the chairmanship largely concur -- that party ought to be a self-perepaturing instituion designed to build upon and then project the capacities of Democrats, generally.

There's overlap; Dean wants a Democratic presidential nominee to win and he wants the party to be strong and well-funded in 2008.

But the Ickes consortium doesn't trust Dean, and like many Democrats, it's convenient for him to rhetorically set up his organization as the "anti-Dean" alternative for donors. (We hear that the Data Warehouse does need more money and is fishing aggressively.)

But two lists -- one for the DNC, and the other for Dem interest groups -- might not be a bad idea. [MARC AMBINDER]

Katherine Harris isn't getting out of FL SEN, despite days of rumor and pressure to the contrary.

The wire should flash with this news and her remarks shortly.

According to the most recent reports, with 85.1% of precincts reporting, here are the DFL preference poll results from last night's caucuses:

Attorney General Mike Hatch -- 38.7%
State Sen. Becky Lourey -- 22.4%
State Sen. Steve Kelley -- 22.3%
Developer Kelly Doran -- 6.4%

Out of about 25K votes cast, Lourey and Kelly are within 27 votes of each other. Hatch wrote in a 2/17 fundraising letter that his camp calculated him at 45% among 7,000 surveyed "likely state delegates" compared to Lourey at 15%, Kelley at 5% and undecideds at 30%. Perhaps if a clear winner had emerged between Lourey and Kelly, then that candidate might have started getting the Big Mo before the June convention. But since there's no clear silver medalist, Hatch has won this one -- both in the final count and expectations game, despite polling more than 5% behind his own estimate.

On a side note, the state's Independence Party (of pro-wrestler/Gov. Jesse Ventura fame), had their 2nd adventure in virtual caucusing. In a party for which just short of 300 people showed up to the real thing, about 100 additional people caucused online to vote in the preference poll and on online platforms. In future online caucuses, IP Chair Jim Moore hopes to have ongoing discussions during the voting so people can truely virtually caucus [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ].

Lots of unions trumpet their "bipartisan" credentials and we can't think of one that hasn't at some point threatened to detach from the nipple of the Democratic Party. But how do you know a union is serious?

Well, for one thing, look who shows up to speak at their legislative conference. Addressing the International Association of Firefighters' from March 19-21 are WH CoS Andy Card, DHS Sec. Michael Chertoff, RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman and Sen. Chuck Hagel, amother others. Democrats include Rep. Steny Hoyer, Sen. Joe Biden, Gov. Bill Richardson and DNC Chairman Howard Dean.

Jeffrey Zack, an IAFF spokesman, rightfully brags: "With our truly non-partisan political work, we have been able to open doors that are not accessible to other unions, or many other interest groups."

The IAFF, as you'll recall, was the first union to endorse Sen. John Kerry in '04. But it hosted, that same year, convention parties featuring Republicans. Because firefighters are first responders in extremeis, the IAFF would be foolish if it didn't work with the party in power. Since 9/11, fire safety guidelines, first responder funding and federal grants to fire departments have become politicized but the IAFF's leverage has grown.

Other recent "Don't Take Us For Granted" activity by unions:

--Iconoclastic SEIU chief Andrew Stern hinting that the national union would not be averse to endorsing the right Republican candidate or refusing to support the Democratic Party in aggregate.

--Building trades unions setting up a new legislative and bargaining structure outside the AFL-CIO and enhancing their ties to GOPers; when he was running for majority leader, Rep. John Boehner stopped by a "thank you" party for GOPers who helped win funding for union construction projects.

--The Steelworkers harassing Democratic consultants who worked for Rep. Henry Cuellar (D).

Believe or not, there are still some intriguing new technological advancements in the political world that have nothing to do with a computer.

A small group of House GOPers are following the lead of Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA) in holding a new form of town hall meeting. And it's via something arcane: the telephone.

Here's how it works: When Lungren (or whoever) is ready to hold their Tele-Conference call, an automated caller begins dialing a pre-selected group of numbers (say by zip code) and instantly invites folks that answer to participate in Lungren's Tele-Town hall. The listeners can ask questions and more intriguing, Lungren can poll the listeners (who vote via touch pad). And yes, the technology allows the respondents' poll answers to be logged with the phone number (can you say, "micro-targeting"?)

House GOPers view this technology as a replacement for the live town hall, which have turned into partisan free-for-alls. But these could easily replace focus groups. They pro-actively seek opinion, instead of waiting for it to drift in. [REID WILSON]

The talk of Florida today is that the upper echeleon of Rep. Katherine Harris's Senate campaign is imploring her to drop out of the race.

A statement of some sort is expected from Harris's campaign within the next few hours.

Here's another choice morsel: "Abramoff 'admits that he stepped over ethical lines, insulted and misled his clients, offended the God to whom he regularly prays. By court decree, he owes the Indian tribes approximately $25 million in restitution, and he owes the I.R.S. at least $1.7 million. On Yom Kippur, the Jewish day of atonement, when Orthodox Jews beat their breasts for their sins, he can flagellate himself with great conviction. But for Jack Abramoff, the time for on-therecord rancor is over. However angry he may be with former cronies who supped at his trough and accepted his favors but who now call him a "sleazebag" or a "creep" and wish he'd never been born, he bites his tongue. What really upsets him is all this revisionism, all these people pretending he never existed."

According to the Vanity Fair article, Pres. Bush once teased Abramoff about his muscular build. "What are you benching, buff guy?"

From Vanity Fair: "Most lobbyists meet with a committee chairman, staff, a few members. We'd meet with the whole leadership of the House and Senate, the entire committee on both sides, then create a roster of who might ideologically support the idea and get them in the war.... We'd get people firing constantly on the decision-makers. And we'd outwork everyone in the media.... Most Washington lobbyists are lazy, people of limits, people who move glacially slow. I felt my job was to go out there and save the world.... I thought it was immoral to take someone's money and not win for them. And we basically didn't lose."

Vanity Fair's David Margolick has interviewed Jack Abramoff, and everything -- everything -- is on the table.

We'll post excerpts throughout the morning, but here's what the lobbyist says about Sen. Conrad Burns: "Every appropriation we wanted [from Burns's committee] we got. Our staffs were as close as they could be. They practically used Signatures as their cafeteria. I mean, it's a little difficult for him to run from that record."

BTW: Here's more intrepid work by the Billings Gazette

There were DFL caucuses last night....

Hennepin Co. Atty Amy Klobuchar (D) led the DFL's SEN preference poll with 77%.

With 75% reporting, AG Mike Hatch (DFL) led the GOV straw poll with 38%. State Sens. Steve Kelley (DFL) and Becky Lourey (DFL) followed with 22% and developer Kelly Doran (DFL) had 6%.

Carole Strayhorn? Should Tom DeLay avoid a runoff tonight and secure re-nomination in TX 22, he may have one person to thank more than any other and that's Republican-turned-indie TX GOV candidate Carole Strayhorn.

Those that have been following the DeLay primary closely have probably noticed that the embattled Congressman hasn't run many TV ads. In fact, the ones that have run, have been targeted at outside groups attacking DeLay, but not paid for by DeLay. Why that lack of TV if early polling indicated DeLay was, at one time, polling under 50% in a Republican primary?

Well, because the DeLay folks realize that the lower the turnout, the more they can control the makeup of the electorate. And today's turnout is lower than low around the state because there's no seriously competitive statewide primary driving casual voters to the polls.

Had Strayhorn stayed in the GOP primary race against incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, turnout today would be very different and DeLay would be dealing with a lot more of a hostile electorate.

DeLay has spent a lot of money on this primary, but the money's been spent talking to his supporters, not on persuasion (i.e. TV etc.).

Avoiding a runoff tonight doesn't mean DeLay's out of the woods for November. In fact, failing to crack 60%, or even 65%, would spell major problems in a race against Nick Lampson. But for now, DeLay ought to send Strayhorn a big "thank you" for helping keep turnout low today. [CHUCK TODD]

In his first VA SEN presser, ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D) said: "The Republican Party of George W. Bush is not the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan" (AP).

"Harriet Miers is my attorney. She gives me legal advice" -- Bush, celebrating women (WhiteHouse.gov).

Here's how The Hotline described today's races.

Three big '06 storylines have been Tom DeLay's fate, Iraq vet candidates and the liberal blogosphere. All three sagas advance today in TX, where voters kick off the '06 primaries.

-- DeLay (TX 22): GOPers pray he can win a four-way race outright, avoiding a 4/11 runoff that would drag this mess even further into the spring. If new legal woes later force DeLay to resign, party officials insist, they can replace him on the 11/06 ballot. (Don't worry, they've checked this out).

Rodriguez vs. Cuellar (TX 28): No one wants a runoff here either. But with Morales in the mix, one's likely. Liberal bloggers are touting Rodriguez. But the ex-Rep. isn't touting them, or his big NARAL nod (both tough sells in the culturally conservative district). Cuellar, of course, is running from his own bogeyman, George Bush.

(BTW: For those watching TX 28, MyDD's Chris Bowers has a handy guide to the county-by-county results from '04.)

Van Taylor (TX 17): The NRCC and Gov. Perry have rallied behind the Iraq war vet as their best chance to beat Dem Edwards. Standing in their way are Tucker Anderson and his ex-boss, Rep. Pete Sessions. It's unclear how this affects Session's bid to chair the NRCC. But it can't help (unless Anderson wins outright).

If Taylor loses the primary, all eyes will be on Sessions, who's running for NRCC chair against Reps. Phil English and Tom Cole. Sessions has been making calls on behalf of Anderson, even though the party apparatus is behind Taylor. Sessions' support for John Boehner in the leadership battle should help him somewhat, but if Anderson wins the primary and loses the general, he may not be viewed quite as favorably.

More than 1800 Republicans have signed up to attend the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, according to the TN GOP. That's the largest number in recent memory. All 1,800+ conference registrants will be eligible to participate in the Hotline's straw poll.

We caught a fascinating item in CNN's Morning Grind. Here's how we summarized it in today's Hotline:

Four days before the SRLC, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "appears to have snagged the endorsement of Sen. Trent Lott (R-Mississippi)." Lott said that when he "takes the stage in Memphis on Saturday, his remarks will focus on 'the Republican Party in the South and about my friend John McCain.' Lott: "We should be looking for leadership and character." In "typical Lott-speak," he said he "wouldn't characterize the speech asn an endorsement but "noted McCain will accompany him" to a MS delegation reception Friday night. Lott said that McCain "has deep Mississippi roots" because the McCain farm "was down the road" from Lott's mothers farm and "their uncles were political allies."

Early voting in TX closed on 3/3, and according to figures from the Secretary of State's office, at least 250K Texans in major counties either mailed in ballots or showed up at satellite sites.

The 28th congressional district encompasses parts of about a dozen counties along the Mexican border and has a higher proportion of Mexican-American voters than any other Texas county. Voters here tend to be culturally traditional and economically -- well -- economically, they want jobs and growth and stability.

Webb County is where Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) tends to get most of his votes. His home base is in Webb's seat -- Laredo. According to the Almanac of American Politics, only 15 percent of the district's residents live there. But they comprised nearly a third of the turnout in '04 and gave eighty percent of their vote to Cuellar. (Remember: he barely beat Ciro Rodriguez, shaking out a margin of fewer than 60 votes.)

Rodriguez hopes that Bexar County will turn out according to its appropriate share of the district's population. (He took four out of every five Bexar votes in '04 and won the six counties to Bexar's north.)

Bexar residents typically contribute about a third of the primary vote, and Rodriguez claims a base there. But much of the country lies in a different district, and Rodriguez's canvass operation has to be precise and efficient for him to win.

Each candidate received about 25K votes in the '04 primary.

In Bexar so far, 16K Democrats have voted. A hot county commission race that's might bump up turnout there.) In Webb County, 21K Democrats have voted.

What to watch tonight: the relative turnout in Webb and Bexar counties, the absolute turnout in Bexar counties, and by what margin Cuellar wins in Zapata Co.

First same-sex marriage... then the estate/death tax... and now the flag amendment.

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist has scheduled debate on yet another flap-generating cultural issue that forces Dems to either sew a footnote onto their first amendment absolutism or risk appearing to voters as unpatriotic. (That's the theory, anyway. Since when has the flag itself been used to defeat a Democrat?)

Frist:

"The American flag is a proud and sacred reminder of the principles of freedom and opportunity that form the foundation of our Republic. Our flag reminds us that there is more that unites us as Americans than divides us, and a constitutional amendment will give one of our Nation's proudest and most treasured symbols the protection it deserves. It honors the sacrifice of countless brave men and women who died defending our flag and the ideals it represents. I look forward to bringing the Flag Protection Amendment to the floor at the end of June so we can debate legislation that respects one of the principal symbols of our nation, and appropriately honors the sacrifice and commitment of all those who've acted to protect it."

BTW: Frist today named Amy Call as the new communications director in his leadership office. Bob Stevenson is now the senior communications counselor. So that means the hopes and expectations that Frist's team will run a better communications shop now fall on the shoulders of young Ms. Call.

In case you missed it, it seems that ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani is indeed considering a presidential race.

From Newsweek:

Giuliani told a group of pastors in FL that the "key to his final decision" would be whether he thought he could raise "enough cash." It "didn't sound as if he had much doubt -- and nothing going on in Memphis this week is likely to change his mind"

Giuliani will raise money for Tom Kean's Senate bid on 3/23 in New Jersey. And he'll host a fundraiser for CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on 3/30 in NYC. That's in addition to his NRSC fundraiser in Washington 3/2.

The filing deadlines for OR and PA arrive 3/7. Some questions we have for a few key races:

-- Why isn't the NRCC recruiting against Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-OR 05)? Her district narrowly voted for Bush and Gov. Ted Kulongoski's (D) unpopularity could be a drag for Dems. But Hooley faces no opposition one day before the filing deadline.

-- Will Rendell running up-ballot help PA 06's Lois Murphy (D) get elected in her suburban Philly district? Or did she already maximize her vote in '04 with Kerry on the ballot?

-- Is 10-term Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA 07) vulnerable? Dems cleared the field for Vice Admiral Joe Sestak, hoping he can mount a strong challenge. But Weldon has never received less than 59% of the vote, even in this Dem-leaning district.

-- Who's more likely to win the PA 08 Dem primary: Iraq war vet Patrick Murphy or ex-Bucks Co. Cmsr Andy Warren? Murphy has been riding a wave of nat'l publicity, while Warren is better known within the district.[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

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A judge today "refused to allow a lengthy delay" in the sentencing of Jack Abramoff (AP). And Abramoff atty Abbe Lowell said: "We will name names" (Sun-Sentinel.com).

Lowell: "We will name names. We will provide the public with evidence of what is going on out there," Lowell said. "It seems to me that is not in the interest of law enforcement."

From House Race Hotline:

Black Dems currently hold every majority-black CD in the House. (PA 01's Robert Brady (D), who is white, represents a black plurality CD.)

That could change this fall, as two white Dem candidates are well positioned to compete in crowded winner-take-all primaries. In NY 11, David Yassky (D) has outraised his four announced opponents (all black), and once worked for then-Rep. Chuck Schumer. And in TN 09, state Sen. Steve Cohen is strongly considering entering the Dem primary, which already features nearly 20 announced candidates.

Cohen told HRH that he wants to be "the first white member" of the CBC. His voting record in Nashville indicates he'd be a reliably liberal vote.

Will there be consternation at the CBC if he wins? Interestingly, three white members represent majority Hispanic CDs -- Reps. Berman, Filner, Doggett -- with limited controversy. (CA 51's Filner is facing Assemblyman Juan Vargas in a Dem primary.) But if these two win, will CBCers coalesce behind one challenger in '08, or place voting record over racial identity? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

Seen at the Polk Co. Iowa Democratic convention this weekend:
five tables of friendly volunteers staffing a Draft Warner table. No other potential presidential candidate had any set up like that.

Warner, who went to IA twice in '05, is planning a spring visit. He wants to help raise money for Rep. Leonard Boswell's re-election campaign and staff members for the two men are working to find a mutually convenient date.

Republican sources say Rep. Bill Thomas (R-CA), the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, will announce his retirement today.

Roll Call says that Thomas would most likely "hand the keys" of his district to an ex-aide, current state Assemb. Kevin McCarthy. But other GOPers may challenge him in the primary.

The Bakersfield, CA-based district is heavily Republican. It gave Pres. Bush a huge margin over John Kerry in '04.

Listen live....

Conservative Dem Dean Florez is the wildcard. He's what a talk radio host called "an attention grabber" who's popular in the district. If a nasty GOP ensues and if Florez runs, Dems might just (might just, maybe, perhaps) have a chance to be competitive for this seat.

On the same day Democrats take another stab at message unity and try to potray the GOP's budget priorities as detrimental to homeland security, the AP reports that physical security around the Nebraska Ave Naval compound that houses the Dept. of Homeland Security is iffy.

It's another bad press clip for Wackenhut, a favored security contractor of the gov't. Note within the story the line from a DHS spokesman who admits that the government doesn't control -- can't control, even -- the training of those who protect the DHS.

A new, free Hotline feature:

Each Monday, Hotline TV editor Emily Goodin will pack five hours of Sunday show news and analysis into one digestible post.