The Futures Market: New Jersey

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

NJ GOPers are worried. After losing statewide races even though the
Dem nominees were seen by many as corrupt, some think that State Sen. Tom Kean (R) is the party's last shot at a statewide win for a long time to come. Others, however, believe that Kean is not his father, and will not impress the electorate. Dems are in a holding pattern, especially in Rep. Rob Andrews' (D) NJ 01 seat, with several up-and-comers waiting to fight it out when, not if, Andrews makes a statewide bid. And several agree that if one of our new stars wins his race for Mayor of Newark, he'll vault to the top of everyone's watch list, even though he's only in his early 30s. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

State Sen. Diane Allen (R): After losing the SEN primary in '02 and flirting with and abandoning an '05 GOV bid, she's "yesterday's news." A moderate, she "can't win a primary" because of her pro-choice views. "I don't think she'd ever throw her hat in the ring again."
State Sen. Tom Kean Jr (R): The son of ex-Gov/ex-9/11 Commis. chair Tom Kean is running for U.S. SEN against Sen. Bob Menendez (R). GOPers are enthusiastic about his bid and see him as having a real shot. GOPers are comparing him to ex-Gov Christie Todd Whitman, though others think his recent abandoment of the "Jr." designation is "ridiculous." Some GOPers believe he's being toughened up for an '09 GOV bid
State Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R): Ex-party chair, wasn't a very successful guy, "is not talked about for higher office." Had been on the short list.
Newark City Councilor Anibal Ramos (D): Has reached the top of his career. Running for re-election in May.
State Assemb. Jeff Van Drew (D): "Has the ability to cross regional boundaries" and therefore may be able to build his profile. In a GOP district, but "hugely popular." DCCC is looking at him to run against Frank Lobiondo.
Hamilton Township Councilor Dan Benson (D): Lost a bid for State Assembly in '05, running against an incumbent, gave up council seat, "good guy, but probably wrong time, wrong place."
Assemb. Joe Cryan (D): Vice chair of state party, "young, smart." Next in line to be state party chair, though he has an ethical cloud around a fundraising scandal.
Cumberland Co. Commiss. Lou Magazzu (D): Seen as a party-builder more than a rising star on his own. "Not so much a statewide player but more of a regional player." In the leadership of NJ Assoc. of Counties. Probably capped out.

And the stars to watch in the future:

US Atty Christopher Christie (R): A former Morris Co. Freeholder before losing a re-election bid, he's talked about for GOV. "Our fortunes would have been different on election day had we been able to convince Chris to jump into the GOV race." "Can get statewide headlines just by burping." His Morris Co. base would be important in any future statewide bid.
Morris Co Freeholder John Murphy (R): "Looks like a lost Baldwin brother" "name is bandied about quite a bit for future office" Ran for GOV in '05 but lost in the primary, will most likely make a return bid in '09. A guy "you could see as" Gov. "He fits the image."
Mike Doherty (R): Conservative assemb, almost went to jail instead of raising taxes to comply with judicial orders "Over the next few years, look for him to start reaching out." "Future darling of the conservative part of the party."
Assemb. Bill Baroni (R): "The most gifted natural politician I've seen in a long time." Did a fundraiser for Sen. George Allen (R-VA). Elected in Dem territory. Respected across the spectrum for his willingness to talk to everyone. Led GOPers' spin against Torricelli/Lautenberg switcheroo in '02. May run into Tom Kean in '09.
Ex-Whitewater Special Prosecutor Bob Ray (R): Ran for SEN in '02 but dropped out after failing to qualify. Has expressed interest in a SEN bid in '08.
Assemb./West New York Mayor Albio Sires (D): The favorite to capture Sen. Bob Menendez's (D) NJ 13 seat. His "rapid acendancy" from back bencher to speaker impressed a lot of people.
State Sen. Ellen Karcher (D): "Came out of nowhere" to beat the co-pres. of the State Senate. The daughter of ex-Speaker Allen Karcher (D) is now seen as "a lion-killer," which gets her noticed in NJ. "Somebody who could be a real potential candidate for higher office."
Assemb. David Mayer (D): Ex-aide to Rob Andrews, "smart, diligent guy who's real honest and ethical." Considered a possible Congressional candidate in Andrews' district. "Somebody to watch."
Assemb. Lou Greenwald (D): The son of ex-Cherry Hill mayor, "young up-and-comer," could be a candidate for Andrews' seat as well. Chair of Assembly finance cmte, "Has aspirations for higher offices." "Ability to move up, lot of ambition"
Cory Booker: Running for mayor of Newark after a narrow loss in '02, and if he wins, "the sky's the limit" for the 32-year-old Yale Law School grad and Rhodes Scholar. "Everybody will see him clearly going beyond the Newark Mayor's office."