The Futures Market: New York

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

New York is a big state with its share of aging Reps. A number of the people who make it on to this year's list could end up with Congressional pins sooner rather than later, and the vultures are already circling a number of older members. Of note, while many of our Futures Market stars come from the ranks of state legislatures, NYers are more excited about county officials throughout the state, where leadership -- or lack thereof -- is more evident than it is in Albany, where a member is one of 150 Assembs. or 62 Sens. Throughout the state, Dems seem more optimistic about their upstate prospects, while GOPers are looking forward to races on Long Island. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• Public Service Commis. Patricia Acampora (R): A former Assemb, she was appointed to the commission by Gov. George Pataki (R).
• State Sen. Michael Balboni (R): While considering a bid for AG, Balboni traveled to Lincoln Day dinners across the state, something others aren't always willing to do. That earned him a lot of good will, and he's "definitely a statewider down the road."
• Monroe Co. Exec. Maggie Brooks (R): We met Brooks when she was just a Co. Clerk, but now ex-MA Gov. Bill Weld (R) is considering her as an LG candidate. She's still "moving up and up and up" and is taken seriously as a possible state-wide candidate in '10.
• Sec/State Randy Daniels (R): The ex-Dem is running for Gov., though polls show he's fighting an uphill battle against Weld.
• Onondaga Co. DA William Fitzpatrick (R): Very popular in his home county, Fitzpatrick is "a figure statewide" in law enforcement circles, but not necessarily in other communities. Some don't expect him to take a leap to higher office because "he's happy doing what he's doing."
• Ex-Hempstead Mayor James Garner (R): GOPers flew in Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) to campaign for Garner in '04 against Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) in NY 04. Still, he lost 63-37, and while "he had a window," GOPers emphasize the past tense when talking about him.
• Erie Co. Exec. Joel Giambra (R): After a series of scandals dealing with furniture contracts for county office buildings, he's no longer thought of as a rising star.
• Oneida Co. Exec. Joseph Griffo (R): The former mayor of Rome, NY is "doing a good job," but no one expects him to move up.
• Rensselaer Co. Exec. Cathy Jimino (R): Still a "big-time star" after running for a 2nd term unopposed. A good fundraiser, she's "very high-profile" and could be a down-ballot statewide candidate or make a bid for Congress.
• State Sen. Raymond Meier (R): After flirting with a Gov bid in '06, he's now considered the front-runner when Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R) retires from his NY 24 seat.
• Insurance Commis. Howard Mills (R): The ex-Assemb. "Made a lot of friends" during his run against Sen. Chuck Schumer (D). He's said to be waiting for his State Sen seat to open up so he can return to Albany as a member.
• Bronx Borough Pres. Adolfo Carrion (D): Still the Borough Pres., he's considered a possible future candidate for mayor.
• Syracuse Common Council Pres. Bea Gonzales (D): Had considered a bid for LG and is thought of as a possible candidate for Rep. Jim Walsh's (R) NY 25 seat.
• NYC Councilor Melinda Katz (D): One of the finalists in this year's election for Speaker of the City Council, she could well be a future candidate for Queens Borough Pres.
• NYC Councilor John Liu (D): The first Asian-American member of the NY City Council, he's a "possible city-wide candidate" in the future.
• NYC Council Speaker Gifford Miller (D): After losing his bid for Mayor in '05 and being term-limited out of office, his popularity is said to have waned, though "he'll be back in some capacity. As the former CoS to Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D), he's though of as a her potential successor in NY 14.
• Nassau Co. Exec. Tom Suozzi (D): The Nassau Co. Exec. is currently conducting a statewide listening tour after declaring his bid for Gov., but he faces an uphill fight against AG Eliot Spitzer (D). However, he's "clearly a star."
• NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson (D): Still in office, Thompson will almost certainly be a candidate for Mayor in '09, igniting a high-powered Dem showdown.

• Chautauqua Co. Exec. Greg Edwards (R): After beating a Dem incumbent in '05, he's someone with "potential for bigger office."
• Saratoga Co. DA Jim Murphy (R): He "has a great record" and ran unopposed in '05. He's "on people's lists" when they look for upstate candidates.
• Rockland Co. Exec. Scott Vanderhoff (R): Serving his 4th term, he's considered bids for higher office. Some say he's "itchy to do something else" and wants to run for AG, but that party leaders are trying to talk him into a run for State Comptroller.
• State Sen. John Flanagan (R): Flannagan's family name is a legacy on Long Island, thanks to his father's career in the legislature. Unlike other legislators who only care about their districts, Flannagan is said to understand statewide politics better than most others.
• State Sen. Ruben Diaz (D): Considered a strong future candidate for Bronx BP or a candidate for NY 07, should Rep. Joe Crowley (D) move on.
• Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (D): The newly-elected mayor, he's thought to be an up-and-comer specifically in the state party.
• State Sen. David Patterson (D): The House Min Leader is AG Eliot Spitzer's (D) choice for an LG running mate. Serves on the board of the DLCC.
• Kirsten Gillibrand (D): An atty in Hudson, she's running against Rep. John Sweeney (R) in NY 20. She's a "future star upstate," and though she's seen as a long shot, party leaders are excited for her bid.