The Futures Market: North Carolina

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

NCers on both sides of the aisle are excited about their prospects among members of the law and order community. Dems boast of at least two vets just back from the Middle East who will play a big role in the future of the state, as well as a DA who's already considering his '08 plans. GOPers can't wait to hear from a sheriff who earned his GED after having to drop out of school to help his parents out financially. But some GOPers are keeping a close eye on the volatility of the State Legislature and say that a power shift, which may be only a few months away, could boost some new candidates' prospects for the future. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

• Ex-State Sen. Patrick Ballantine (R): Resigned to run for Gov in '04 and lost to Gov. Mike Easley (D). Some think he's considering a comeback bid, but they question his chances in a primary. "His rise has been plateaued."
• Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R): He's said to be waiting for Rep. Sue Myrick (R) to retire or run statewide from NC 09, and he'll be the front-runner when she does. He's "wisely resisted the urge to run statewide," and Myrick's seat "should be his for the taking."
• State Rep. David Miner (R): After getting thumped in a primary during his bid for re-election, he probably doesn't have much of a future in the party.
• Ex-Winston-Salem Alderman Vernon Robinson (R): After running several times for statewide and Congressional office and losing, and then losing his seat on the city council, the man who calls himself the "black Jesse Helms" is now considered a perennial also-ran. Now said to be considering a challenge to Rep. Mel Watt (D).
• Ex-Charlotte City Councilmember Patrick Cannon (D): Cannon dropped out of contention before an expected '05 bid against McCrory. He's since faded away.
• Insurance Dept. official Courtney Crowder (D): The former aide to Rep. Bobby Ethridge (D) and former Young Dems chair, he's very active with the party and "certainly a bright star."
• Ex-State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D): After serving in the Middle East, he probably "has a very bright political future" down the road. For now, though, he's focusing on his legal career.
• State Sen. Linda Garrou (D): Has "got the trust of the leadership in the State." "A star at any level she chooses to take on." Considered a key decision-maker on a number of issues in the legislature.
• Ex-State Sen. Eric Reeves (D): Came close to running for U.S. Sen in '02, but while "he's clearly got higher aspirations," he's also said to be considering a return to his native TX.
• Craven, Carteret and Pamlico Cos. DA Scott Thomas (D): Thomas was a "pretty impressive" State Sen who handily won a GOP district until his appointment to DA by the Gov. "We are going to hear from Scott Thomas again," as he's said to be thinking about an '08 run.
• State Rep. Jennifer Weiss (D): A favorite of EMILY's List, she's "moving up in leadership" and is "very well-respected."
• Atty Alan Thornburg (D): He lost a bid for State Court of Appeals, though he's "been courted for years and years" to run. He'll make a future bid, most likely for a judgeship.

• State Rep. Tim Moore (R): In his 2nd term and his mid-30s, Moore impressed a lot of people when he was appointed to the UNC Board of Govs while still in his 20s. He beat the House Dem Whip in his first run and "has shown an interest" in State Supreme Court.
• State Rep. Ed McMahan (R): While McMahan is currently on the outs with House Leadership, when power shifts, as it does in NC, "he could be Speaker tomorrow." He "could suddenly become a real power-broker." He was recently elected as one of NC's RNC Cmte members.
• State Sen. candidate Nathan Tabor (R): He lost a bid for NC 05 to now-Rep. Virginia Foxx (R), but he's still on people's list. He's the heir to a soy fortune and has a syndicated radio show on 250 stations nationwide. He'll be "very upwardly mobile" down the road.
• Johnston Co. Sheriff Steve Bizzel (R): A guy with a great biography, he dropped out of high school to take care of his family, then went back for his GED. He's slowly building his name outside the county and is thought to be considering a bid for Ethridge's NC 02 seat when it comes open.
• State Rep. Grier Martin (D): First elected in '04 by beating a GOP incumbent, an Afghanistan vet and Major in Army Reserves, "definitely a Congressional candidate at some point." "He'll be in NC politics for a long time."
• State Rep. Deborah Ross (D): A Prof at Duke with two strong fundraising bases, as she's also an atty. Though she represents a safe Dem district, "nobody works harder" than her.
• State Sen. Janet Cowell (D): The former Raleigh City Councilmember is now a freshman in the legislator and "has moved up quickly."