Who Would Tony Soprano Vote For?

As HBO finally rolls out the painfully overdue sixth season of "The Sopranos" and as New Jersey voters begin tuning into a 2006 campaign that will touch two of the show's themes - corruption and leadership -- it's worth asking who New Jersey's real boss would vote for.

The Sopranos hail from Essex County, a blue county in a blue state. Moreover, Tony and his crew come from a working class tradition. So is he a Democrat? An aide to a New Jersey Democratic congressman suggests, "Tony would definitely vote Dem. If you look at the businesses he's involved in -- carting and the racketeering of unions -- those are businesses controlled by Dems."

If you've seen a single episode of "The Sopranos," you know there's plenty about Democrats that Tony wouldn't approve of: Liberals, for instance. He once told Meadow, "It may be the 1990's out there, but it's the 1950's in here." [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

And one North Jersey Democratic power broker pointed out that Tony's views on race and sexual orientation, are, to say the least, less than complimentary with the liberal base. The boss (who threatened to "break my legs" if I directly quoted him) was sure, "Of course Tony would vote Republican."

So chalk up one for the R's.

But could he be a Reagan Democrat? Plenty of people maintain conservative families but have left of center economic views. In Tony's case, this isn't true. He’s pro-business, anti-tax and anti-government. Of course, he hates the government because he's a criminal.

But his attitude often isn't far from Grover Norquist's: Get your hands off my money.

Conservative family. Business-orientated. New Jersey News political correspondent Michael Aron offers another hint: "He lives in a big suburban house in a town full of suburban Republicans and resents paying taxes."

And it's all the more likely that he would support Pres Bush after 9/11 -- and perhaps Tom Kean, Jr., after Kean Sr.'s leadership on the 9/11 commission. Sen. Bob Menendez's spokesman Matt Miller quips, "As a son trying struggling to fill his father’s shoes, Tony would probably vote for Tom Kean, Jr."

It turns out there's someone who actually polled this. In the 2004 cycle, Farleigh-Dickinson University PublicMind poll found that "37% of likely voters in New Jersey think that if [Tony Soprano] were going to vote for President, he'd vote for Bush. Only 26% think he would vote for Kerry."

The evidence is mounting up that Tony is a red-blooded conservative Republican. But there's another factor at play. Is Tony voting for a Senate or congressional candidate who will be hundreds of miles away in Washington, or is Tony considering a local candidate, who has the power to move state dollars? If it's a state candidate, we're talking about a whole different ballgame.

New Jersey is notorious for its pay-to-play politics, and the D or R next to the bosses' names often is irrelevant. An aide to a Democratic congressman suggests, "Party doesn't matter, only business. All that matters is what that official can deliver." And no more is that the case than in Essex and Hudson Counties,
were Tony works. The aide: "Tony would be a huge fan of [Sen.] Bob Menendez," who is widely credited as Hudson’s County's boss.

So who would Tony vote for statewide? Incumbency. As Radley Balko of the CATO Institute correctly points out, “"He'd want a big government party that's entrenched, easily manipulated, and tainted by the corruption of the power. Lots of government programs means lots of taxpayer dollars to be diverted to Tony and his capos."

It brings to mind an episode where Tony and Assemblyman Ron Zellman pull of a heist diverting tens of thousand of HUD dollars to their pockets. Tony later beats Zellman with a belt, indicting what Tony would do if a politician ever crossed him in business.

In New Jersey, it doesn't matter which party is in power. It is only about what the individual can deliver. And On Nov. 7, 2006, don't expect to see Tony waiting in line at the local elementary school or wearing his "I Voted" sticker. No, he'll be sitting back at the Bing, chomping on a cigar, feet up. After all, he already has all his Assemblymen lined up.