April 2006

FARMVILLE, Va -- Sen. George Allen (R-VA) said today that he was "absolutely insulted" by what he called the "erroneous" and "vicious" cover story in this week's TNR delving into his history on racial issues. Allen, in an interview during a break from his role of co-host of the Faith and Politics Institute's trip to this Southside VA town that closed down its schools rather than integrate in the years after Brown vs. Board, described the article as a "political attack piece" that "was already written" by the time he talked its author. "It does not reflect my views, record or what I aim to do in the future," Allen said

As for his past association with the Confederate flag, Allen said he had "learned over the years that" it "means different things to different people." He pointed out that some look at it and see "valor," while others see "lynching." Asked what he sees in it, Allen responded that to him "it means all these things." The fundamental issue regarding the banner, though, is "how it hurts people," he said. People can change, Allen argued.

But did the article, which was picked up and rehashed on the front-page of the Richmond paper on Friday, cast a shadow over his trip here this weekend with Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) and other members of Congress to discuss such very matters of race and reconciliation? Not at all. The timing was "perfect," he observed with a smile.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

For those that aren't feeling a draft and would prefer to follow the CA Dem Convo than ESPN's wall-to-wall coverage of the NFL draft, then surf on over to Bill Bradley's New West Notes, who is doing his own impersonation of Mel Kiper Jr. when it comes to CA Dems.

You can watch Hotline TV on video-enabled iPods.

In this week's episode:

* We probe the depth of Dems' support for HRC, as measured in our latest Hotline/Diageo Poll. To be honest, even we're surprised how deep it goes.

* What we don't know could fill the Grand Canyon, but we'll tell you exactly what developments will matter, and which won't, between now and November.

* Reaching deep into the mail bag, we find letters from WH '08ers, two party committees and 434 members who may be pressured to refund a bit of their salaries. (Don't forget, you too can send Chuck and John a question)

* WH '08ers are doing their part to build parties and organizations around the country. Who's doing the best job? We'll rate 'em for you.

Six months from E-day, The Hotline examined FEC reports for all 100 state parties. They're the spine of GOTV efforts.

Our full report is here.

-- The data shows that state Republicans have been generally more successful at both fundraising and banking fed. cash. It shows that many Dem parties remain comparatively anemic, but not everywhere.

-- The GOP has a net CoH advantage of more than $10.2M collectively in the states. Combine that hard money number with the RNC, NRSC and NRCC figures and the GOP has banked about $30M more than Dems.

-- In 32 states, the GOP has a CoH advantage. The FL margin is more than $5M (and nearly $9M when the state's non-federal accounts are factored in.) State GOPers in PA have a $1.2M edge; followed by a $1M edge in SD, a $950K edge in MI and a $748K edge in GA. The strongest Dem states compared to their GOP counterparts are VA, IL, AZ, OR and WA.

-- The Weakest Links? Six state Dem parties have less than $10K on hand. In order: WV, HI, SD, NH, WY, SC and DE. And 3 GOP state parties have less than $10K on hand: NH, with only $460, CT and WV. [MARC AMBINDER]

To an audience in Brussels today, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
made clear he envisions a mutually humble -- yet unwavering and principled -- US relationship with Europe.

McCain said Europe and the US should partner to promote democracy in the world through "strong and legitimate international institutions" and through vigorous diplomacy.

"Whether we turn our attention to the regime in Iran, the displaced in Sudan, troops under NATO command in Afghanistan, or to our own citizens, individuals everywhere look to the United States and Europe for unity and leadership," McCain said. "They know that we pursue not just narrow self-interest, but seek the blessings of liberty for all. They, like us, know that the scope of our activities is, by necessity, ambitious and global. And they know -- or they should know -- that we will work together. The world needs the United States and Europe together, and it needs us now."

"[We] have traveled a great distance since 1944, and a long way even since 2004," he said, hinting that he strongly approves of how Sec/State Condi Rice has stewarded the US/EU alliance in the past year and a half.

Meeting the challenge faced by Iran poses a test for both transatlantic partners, McCain said.

McCain calls more "more coercive" measures to block Iran from further developing its nuclear weapons capacity.

"The Security Council should impose multilateral sanctions, including a prohibition on investment, a travel ban, and asset freezes for government leaders and nuclear scientists. In taking these steps at the UN, China and Russia should know that their decisions on the Iranian issue will be a key test of our relations."

McCain also took Russia task, in language more direct than most US policy-makers are willing to use.

"In recent years Moscow has pursued increasingly troubling foreign and domestic policies, and the trends continue to worsen. In the past few months alone, Russia has used its natural gas supplies to punish democratic Ukraine in the middle of winter, embargoed the import of wine from Moldova and Georgia, invited Hamas to Moscow, expressed public opposition to sanctioning Iran, and taken several steps to link North and South Ossetia. The Kremlin pursues greater autocracy at home and undermines democracy abroad."

He ended with a humble note.

"Not only do we seek European leadership, we believe it is necessary to make the world a better, safer place for our interests and our values," he said. "This means true leadership -- not a group of countries that merely follows American directives, as some fear, nor a coalition that opposes American power simply because of its country of origin, as others suggest."

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has more on McCain and also on what Sen. John Edwards was doing at the same conference.

On May 11, ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) will attend a fundraiser for VA Sen. candidate James Webb (D).

Earlier this year, Warner held a fundraiser for Webb primary opponent Harris Miller, which provided a good chunk of the high-dollar cash Miller reported to the FEC this quarter.

Warner's close friend, Don Beyer, is one Miller's most influential advocates.

And others in Warner's orbit are close to Miller. But national Dems who think that Webb has a better shot to beat George Allen have leaned on Warner to show the same love for Webb he and his aides show for Miller.

Warner, for now, will remain neutral. That means: he'll do for Webb what he did for Miller. That starts with the May 11 fundraiser. [MARC AMBINDER]

In VA: Ryan Lizza's George Allen versus the American Spectator's Allen.

In NJ: Bill Pascoe versus Matt Miller

The Sunlight Foundation held a press conference 4/26 a.m. to launch "its efforts to harness the transformative power of the Internet to bring transparency and accountability to Congress and its members."

The new non-partisan (but goo/goo/center-lefty)/non-profit organization unveiled its "first wave of projects" including the Congresspedia website, "the citizen's encyclopedia" of Congress. A joint project with the Center for Media and Democracy, Congresspedia is part of SourceWatch, "a collaboratively-written, wiki-based wesbite documenting the people, organizations and issues shaping the public agenda."

The wiki format allows anyone to submit or edit information on the site, but "users are required to register before they make contributions." The Center for Media and Democracy Research Dir. Sheldon Rampton said unlike Wikipedia, the content will be monitored by a full-time, paid editor. Therefore, entries that are inaccurate or partisan will be removed.

Rampton: "Finally, the media and the public will have a constantly updated, ever-evolving resource on what members of Congress have done and are doing on their behalf. We urge everyone who cares about the kind of leadership they have in Congress to contribute to the site."

Sunlight Foundation Exec. Dir. Ellen Miller commented on the lack of information readily available to the public, citing that "lawmakers still file their financial disclosure forms on travel, gifts and legal expense funds in paper form only" and that "Senators file their campaign contribution records on paper." Miller: "Unfortunately, Congress is still living in the last century." More: "The state of public disclosure is so arcane that it can most accurately be described as primitive."

Miller announced "the first of a series of Transparency Grants to organizations dedicated to using the Internet and information technology to promote transparency and openness in" gov't. Recipients include the Center for Media and Democracy, Center for Responsive Politics, OMB Watch and the Project on Govt. Oversight. Further, investigative journalist Bill Allison and researcher Larry Makinson were named to head "two additional web-based projects to assist media and citizen watchdogs in the fight for more transparency for lawmakers." [KATHERINE LEHR]

On the Spanish-language version of the nationnal anthem: "No I don't... I think the national anthem ought to be sung in English and I think people who want to be a citizen of this country ought to learn English."

"I'm a results oreinted person and my job is to achieve things for the American people."

To NBC's David Gregory: "I'm not going to hiore you., I would, except you can't pass the background check. OK, an uncessary cheap shot, I take it back."

Dem lawyer Bob Bauer uncovers "the first significant regulatory change put in effect for the 2008 Presidential campaign."

The upshot: the doughtut between (roughly) January and April that allowed for campaigns to communicate with interest groups airing non-express advocacy commercials has been filled. (Heretofore, the NRA could coordinate, with Sen. John McCain on an ad that attacks Sen. Russ Feingold on guns.) (We gratuitously stole that example from Mr. Bauer.) Anyway, in re: the above example -- that type of (and that time of) coordination is now forbidden.

At the same time, the FEC relaxed the rules on coordination and communication for non-express advocacy commercials aimed at influencing Congressional campaigns.

Bauer provides his example: "Consider, then, the Iowa caucuses, scheduled (typically) for January, perhaps earlier rather than later in the month in 2008. Under the change made by the FEC, ads runs in that state, which refer to a Presidential candidate, are subject to the coordination restriction from a date beginning some four months before, in 2007, through November, 2008. If Citizens for Positive Campaigns run an ad denouncing the shortcomings of candidate X, this expanded rule would attach to its advertising about X in the State of Iowa for the balance of the election cycle. It does not matter that X won or lost the caucuses; or that X again appears in the State, or has any expectation of winning (or losing) it."

FEC chairman Michael Toner, in an interview, said that for congressional campaigns, "there's much broader latitude" to communicate about ads and strategy so long as those ads don't directly advocate a vote for or against a candidate.

As a consequence: groups like Americans United can still run ads on, say, the budget, and still sit at a roundtable with Dem congressional leaders until 90 days before the '08 election. But beginning in the fall of 2007, that same group can't communicate on ads referring to presidential candidates.

Bauer, in an e-mail to the Hotline, added this explanation: "What it does is account for the long stretch between the early primaries and the general, and to extend the prohibition on the Swift Boats (assuming that they coordinate with a candidate ) so that there is no free-fire zone between one 120 day period within a primary and another related to the general."

"Today, if a candidate runs in the Iowa caucusses, the restrictions ends in January and do not resume again until summer." [MARC AMBINDER]

PBS showed "All the President's Men" last night, but cable had scandals of its own to talk about.

BUT FIRST ...

Brian Williams anchored “Nightly News” from New Orleans, where he got an interview with Pres. Bush. Asked about his approval ratings, Bush: "I've been up in the polls, and I've been down in the polls, but I'm going to continue doing what I think is right for the country" (NBC, 4/27).

FOLLOW THE PROSTITUTES

Brian Unger guest hosted on "Countdown" and led with the latest allegations in the Randy "Duke" Cunningham scandal. He noted: "The three key ingredients of any D.C. key political scandal are as follows, sex, money, and the Watergate apartment complex. ... I guess the lesson no one seems to be learning, if you're going to do something illicit in Washington, do it at, say, the Comfort Inn in Tyson's Corner."

He also asked David Shuster if there were more allegations to come. Shuster replied: "You always hear rumors about this congressman or that congressman who sort of gets drunk with power in Washington and engages in these sort of activities. But until, I think, we get some substantial allegations, I'm not going to drop any names" (MSNBC, 4/27).

San Diego Union Tribune’s Dean Calbreath talked about the scandal on "Scarborough Country." On if there are more allegations to come: "We've been checking out of rumors that not only Congressman Cunningham but as many as a half a dozen other congressmen may have been involved in this. ... The rumor mill is alive with at least half a dozen names" (MSNBC, 4/27).

THIS DOESN'T GET ROVE OFF THE HOOK

And there was still a lot of talk about Karl Rove.

MSNBC's Shuster: "Sources close to Karl Rove say the presidential adviser is now more worried, not less, that he's going to get indicted. The sources say Rove was surprised by some of the questions he was asked, and by the fact the session stretched on for three and a half hours" ("Hardball," 4/27).

CNN's King: "Publicly Karl Rove has been quite optimistic including today when he arrived and talked to his staff. But behind the scenes, some people view this as quite ominous" ("Situation Room," 4/27).

FRIST IS TRYING TO MAKE THIS HIS ISSUE

Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist played "Hardball" with guest host Norah O'Donnell. Most of the talk was on high gas prices: "The things that the administration can do and that's why in our bill, we give them the authority to regulate those so-called CAFE standards or fuel economic standards for our cars. The administration needs to look at that and move it up, move it down, but do what's appropriate. The American consumer is ready to step up, is ready to sacrifice for what they know is a national problem."

But he was also asked if he was going to IA or NH anytime soon. Frist: "Well no, not right now" (MSNBC, 4/27). [EMILY GOODIN]

The former Dr. Ross himself is in Washington this weekend to bring attention to Save Darfur.

But a slightly nervous George Clooney brought in re-enforcements for this afternoon's appearance before a standing room only crowd at the National Press Club: Sens. Barack Obama and Sam Brownback were there to help the Academy Award-winning actor with the more wonky questions. [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released this afternoon shows Hillary Rodham Clinton with a slightly higher favorable rating than her alias, Hillary Clinton. Any chance we may see the Rodham making a reappearance on the national stage?

Fav/Unfav                      Fav/Unfav
Hillary Rodham Clinton         50%42%
Hillary Clinton                46/43

Just a note -- Bill Clinton's fav rating is higher than both Hillarys' with 57% fav and 38% unfav. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

As first reported in House Race Hotline, Rep. John Sweeney, already facing a well-funded Democratic challenger for re-election, may soon be finding himself in deeper political trouble. The Union College student newspaper today reported that the congressman arrived at the Alpha Delta Phi fraternity house last Friday, already inebriated.

Sweeney dep. CoS Melissa Carlson is quoted in the story, saying the Congressman was attending the wake of a close friend earlier that day. "[The congressman] was impressed with the energy and enthusiasm the students displayed -- particularly on a Friday evening. Where better to receive feedback than on their own turf at the college itself?" Carlson said. (The college, however, isn't in Sweeney's home district.)

UPDATE: Here's another picture.

Here's the lead:

"Congressman John Sweeney, a Republican from the 20th district of New York State, appeared at a registered party at Alpha Delta Phi on Friday, April 22. The Congressman came from Geppetto's Bar and was described by witnesses as being inquisitive and engaging, while also acting openly intoxicated."

The silver lining:

"It was reported that one student approached the Congressman with drug paraphernalia and asked to take a picture. The Congressman refused."

The Hotline has obtained a fundraising invitation for what will no doubt be the must-attend political event for any and all DC GOPers wistful for their sports heroes of yesteryear.

Ex-Pittsburgh Steeler WR/PA GOV candidate Lynn Swann (R) has rounded up what is, literally, an all-star cast of baseball and football legends to help him raise some much-needed coin for his bid.

The $1K per-head "Hall of Fame Tribute" will take place 5/11 at the GOP lobby firm of Valis & Keelen.

We won't spoil the fun of checking out the full co-host list, but think Ice Bowl, the Dolphins perfect season in '72 and a certain 80s-era Safety who was known to deliver a hit.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

From a gaggle with Scott McClellan today:

We're fairly sure "Q" is : Jim VandeHei

Q It's come to my attention that there's been requests -- this is a serious question -- to turn these TVs onto a station other than Fox, and that those have been denied. My question would be, is there a White House policy that all government TVs have to be tuned to Fox?

MR. McCLELLAN: Never heard of any such thing. My TVs are on four different channels at all times.

Q Because you have four different TVs. But every time I've ever been --

MR. McCLELLAN: Every TV in the White House also has channels every -- has a split screen, where they can --

Q Well, they always seem to be tuned to Fox, and there's been requests, and these are paid for by taxpayer dollars. And my understanding is that you guys have to watch Fox on Air Force One. Is that true?

The latest Hotline/Diageo poll reveals the real strength underneath Hillary Clinton's presumed presidential candidacy, and it's even stronger than it was originally believed to be, writes the Hotline's Chuck Todd.

John Mercurio writes that big-ticket storylines that will play out later this year -- the future of gas prices, for one -- will indicate whether Democrats regain power on the Hill or Republicans stage a comeback.

Businessman Eric Roach (R) is setting the stage for a rematch in CA 50 against ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R), who narrowly defeated him in a crowded special election two weeks ago.

Roach met 4/26 with conservatives Grover Norquist and Paul Weyrich, wooing their support. Joining Roach's entourage was Howard Kaloogian, who finished third among GOPers in the special.

His decision will reverberate heavily in CA 50, where there will be two ballots on 6/6 -- one pitting Dem Francine Busby against Bilbray; another for the full-term GOP nomination in 11/06.

Roach, a total unknown three months ago, has already spent over $2M on the race. He's aired radio ads and sent direct mail -- even after losing the special election. Movement conservatives still harbor discontent towards Bilbray for his moderate voting record in the House. If Roach runs, will the NRCC spend money to bolster Bilbray on an intraparty skirmish they thought was over? Will the DCCC, which slowed its financial support to Busby, now spend to exploit the GOP's internal divisions? And will the conservative interest groups (Club for Growth, NRA) that stayed on the sidelines in the special take sides? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Senate Dems will retreat ... er, meet for a retreat in Philly this weekend, and among the topics for discussion: how the party should go "Head to head with the GOP on National Security in '06."

Ret. Gen. Wes Clark is on the panel, and an aide previews his message:

"General Clark will make the point to his fellow Democrats that we need to engage (not withdraw) from the world; we want a world where nations work together on mutual interests, and resolve disputes through the procedures of international law; we must strengthen international law, act in accordance with its dictates, and insist that others do the same; national security begins at home, with the fundamental strength of the American economy: this includes the specific instruments to keep the American people safe - effective law enforcement and other first responders, a means for early warning, and, as a last resort, the US Armed Forces; we must act abroad, to support and reinforce those who share our values, using all the means at our disposal: diplomatic, legal, economic, and, only as a last resort, (and proportional to the threat) the recourse to force or the threat of force. He will also discuss how this shows up on the campaign trail."

In New York tonight, Clark will raise money for his WesPAC; a fundraiser features, among others, George Soros.

Worried about a rush to frontload the the WH'08 primaries, the DNC's rules and bylaws cmte is likely to recommend holding one only caucus between IA and NH and one caucus the week after NH, according to cmte members and Dem officials.

By the end of the year, govs in nearly 12 states -- including AL, CA, FL and WV -- will be presented with legislation moving delegate- selection contest dates to early 2/08.

The RBC, hoping to frustrate the frontloading impulse, may delay until after 11/06 a formal vote on which states will be invited to hold early caucuses. The hope is that several bid-submitting states would find it more difficult to reschedule.

Still, in states like MI, Dems and GOPers have already agreed to hold their primaries or caucuses in early 2/08 unless that particular state is chosen for a pre-window contest.

Officials also say they hope that states will find the cost of holding earlier primaries too prohibitive. But that concern has done little to stem the enthusiasm of state governors like Bob Riley (R-AL), who has said the estimated $3M tag is well worth it. [MARC AMBINDER]

From Wake Up Call:

After presiding over one of the most successful party re-vamps in recent memory, including gaining a Sen seat, the Gov mansion and the State Legislature, the GOP chair has done a lot to turn this red state even more red. However, some intra-party strife boils just under the surface, and it may well bubble up sooner than some think. A wealthy developer who came within 4K votes of a runoff -- and presumably the Sen seat with it -- is considering a bid in two years against the state's senior Sen, and with a host of up-and-comers as well as established political names in the mix, '10's Gov race may get pretty messy. [REID WILSON]

The 10 year anniversary party for "Fox News Sunday" featured enough guests to book the show for a month. And while the celebration was for Chris Wallace, Marty Ryan, Rick DiBella, Andrea DeVito and crew, new WH spokesperson Tony Snow was the center of attention, accepting multiple congratulations on the new job as party goers speculated on how he'd do at the podium.

On the admin side, VP Cheney, JCS Chair Peter Pace and WH counselor Dan Bartlett stopped by. John McCain, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Tom DeLay, and Mark Dayton worked the crowd. Not many Dems in attendance but Hillary Clinton stopped by so what more do you need?

The Fox News All Stars were out in full force -- Brit Hume, Bill O'Reilly, Greta Van Susteren, Bill Hemmer, Shepard Smith, Mort Kondracke, Fred Barnes, Bill Kristol, Carl Cameron, Bret Baier, Juan Williams, Brian Wilson, Major Garrett, and Jim Angle. Dan Senor was also in attendance (but no sign of new wife Campbell Brown). And Ron Bonjean would like you to know he's now a "spokesmodel" instead of just a spokesman. [EMILY GOODIN]

"Alias" kicks butt on ABC, pundits kick it on cable:

Lots of admin news happening yesterday, leaving reporters to talk about Tony Snow and Karl Rove all in one breath.

WHY CAN'T WE JUST ALL GET ALONG?

Snow stopped by "Special Report" last night: "I want to get along with the press corps and understand whatever concerns they may have and at the same time try to figure out exactly the technical aspects of doing the job effectively. I'm the guy who's going to spend the next couple of weeks watching briefings and meeting with staff and figuring out how it all works."

On his press sec. style: "I'm probably more Fitzwaterian."

On his predecessor: "Not only do I not want to engage in comparisons with Scott, I'm not sure I could get inside his head and figure out what his role is. I simply know what I want mine to be, which is somebody who's an effective counselor and press secretary."

TAKES ON THE NEW GUY

Reporters offered their assessments of Snow last night:

CNN's Malveaux: "He is wasting no time in really reaching out to us, trying to improve, if you will, somewhat the strained relations between the White House and the press corps" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 4/26).

Slate's Dickerson, on the Rove testimony happening the same day of the announcement: "Tony Snow in his first
task, which was to provide one good news day for the White House, he's already failed" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/26).

NPR's Liasson: "He clearly wants to make reporters feel like they're getting something as opposed to just being in this horrible kind of weird dysfunctional relationship" ("Special Report," FNC, 4/26).

Washington Post's Milbank: "It will ... help the president a great deal to have a guy that everybody likes in the press corps, at least as of this moment. ... Of course, we did like Scott before" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/26).

FNC's O'Reilly: "The truth about Tony Snow is this. America is a better country because he will be in the Bush White House. Snow is not a bubble guy. He'll tell the president what he thinks, and he will not sugar coat it" ("O'Reilly Factor," 4/26).

IF THERE'S GOOD NEWS FOR THE WH, THERE MUST BE BAD NEWS FOR THE WH

CNN's King: "Sources sympathetic to Rove are saying they believe this could lead to the resolution. From their accounts, they say the special prosecutor has a few lingering questions in their view about Rove's account of exactly why he didn't tell the full story in his first grand jury testimony about conversations with reporters" ("Situation Room," 4/26).

MSNBC's Shuster: "The theory out there has been that maybe Karl Rove was changing his testimony, not because his memory was refreshed, but rather because Matt Cooper had just been subpoenaed in the case" ("Hardball," 4/26).

Newsweek's Fineman: "Karl Rove's testimony shines a light once again on the whole question of whether ethics in government means anything in Washington these days" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 4/26).

CNN's Toobin: "This is an example of how in Washington, the more important you are, the fewer rights you have, in a funny way, because any ordinary person who is under investigation in a white collar case would very simply take the fifth, would never even darken the door of the grand jury, never expose himself to the risk of testifying once, much less five times. But Karl Rove is deputy chief of staff. He can't take the fifth and stay in his job" ("Situation Room," 4/26).

FNC's Angle: "Sources close to Rove emphasized that Fitzgerald still says Rove is not a target of the investigation" ("Special Report," 4/26).

NO REAGAN OR FOOTBALL REFERENCES SO DID THIS INTERVIEW REALLY COUNT?

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) played "Hardball" with substitute host David Gregory. When Gregory asked him about Snow, Allen said: "You'll banter with him pretty good, David" (MSNBC, 4/26). [EMILY GOODIN]

As he makes another visit to NH today and tomorrow, NY Gov. George Pataki's (R) Freedom PAC has hired former WH aide/Rove protege Leonard Rodriguez as its new political director. The committee also goes live today with a new website. Check it out: www.freedompac.com. Pataki has scheduled stops in NH today and tomorrow. He'll give the keynote address at DE's GOP convention on 4/29.

ARLINGTON, VA -- Jim Webb's Senate announcement tour lived up to its slogan ('Born Fighting') at today's stop in Arlington:

Double-barrel assault on the Bush Administration? Check. Air of rugged machismo? Check. Combat boots? Out in force.

Surrounded by his family (minus one son, a lance corporal in the Marines preparing to deploy to Iraq), Webb stood before a crowd of 300 to 'state the principles on which we are going to run this campaign.' These turned out to be the same principles that marked his military career -- a running theme in his announcement speech, which centered on the Iraq war.

Webb opened with a declaration: "My objection to this war is not aimed at the army, but at the administration that has chosen to wage it." In martial language, he lashed out at the Bushies as "people who offer no creed," and "sent us into a war wholly unrelated to our national interest." Into this critique he folded domestic spying, the "politics of fear and social division," and even gas prices, noting that in 2002 oil was $24 a barrel versus $75 a barrel today --"a direct result of the instability we brought to the region." Webb endorsed a windfall profit tax on oil companies for good measure.

Webb hopes to steal the issue of national security from the Republican Party. Just one day into his campaign, he's already stolen the boots-and-suits look popularized by Paul Bremer, which, if today's crowd was any indication, has quickly emerging as a politico-fashion statement among Virginia Democrats. In a rare mention of the incumbent, Webb wondered aloud why George Allen wears cowboy boots "when there aren't any cowboys in Virginia?" Then he repeated his vow to don combats boots on the campaign trail (lifting a leg for emphasis) and encouraged his crowd to do the same.

"Put on some boots, folks," he urged. "Work boots, hiking boots --anything except cowboy boots." [JOSHUA GREEN]

From Rove's attorneys:

"Karl Rove appeared today before the grand jury investigating the disclosure of a CIA agent's identity. He testified voluntarily and unconditionally at the request of special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald to explore a matter raised since Mr. Rove's last appearance in October 2005."

"In connection with this appearance, the special counsel has advised Mr. Rove that he is not a target of the investigation. Mr. Fitzgerald has affirmed that he has made no decisions regarding charges. At the request of the special counsel, Mr. Rove will not discuss the substance of his testimony."

RI Sec/State Matt Brown (D) dropped out of the SEN race, "citing money problems" (AP).

The Hotline's Last Call!

Brown:

Today, I am ending my own campaign for United States Senate -- but the goal remains the same. These days, it takes an enormous amount of money to run a Senate campaign, and I simply will not have the resources in the final stretch to run successfully.

Full letter to supporters after the jump.

Seen outside Vernon Jordan's house in Georgetown: the MI GOP's Granholm Job Loss Clock.

The MI Gov. has a high-dollar fundraiser scheduled for tonight at Jordan's manse. Yes, folks, the MI GOP actually obtained a permit to legally position the clock on the street.

Enough, apparently, to convince Sen. George Allen's re-election team to advertise on the Blogfather's national website.

Or maybe there's another reason ...uh... a second reason.

Actually, the ad suggests a reason why Allen's suddenly distracting re-election campaign may be salubrious for the theoretically postponed nurturing of his presidential ambitions.

Now, Allen can easily do some base-tending-to without having to explain why, and his campaign can also prospect for small donors -- openly.

Dems DO want to stop Allen. Allen thus has Dems as a foil to (a) raise money and (b) get his name out to conservatives (or libertarians) nationally.

We almost missed this front-page piece in yesterday's Boston Globe.

They snagged an interview with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who said he will again provide cheap home heating oil next winter for MA. Chavez, a leftist/populist who is known to refer to Pres Bush as "Mr. Danger," told Rep.'s William Delahunt (D-MA) and Gregory Meeks (D-NY) and ex-Rep. Joseph Kennedy II (D), during a meeting in Caracas that his country's state-run oil giant would even provide even more of the discounted petro for MA and other northeastern states in '07.

Now obviously such cold-weather states are more inclined to have a need for this aid, but we can't help but wonder if Chavez, a wily pol who delights in tweaking the Bush admin, does not also have an electoral map in hand when making decisions about what states he'll supply the fuel to.

We'll know for sure if we see him in front of a Cumberland Farms on the Cape this summer offering unleaded for a $1.25 per-gallon.

Bush As Pres.                  Non
           All Lib Prg Mod Con Wht
Approve    11%  8%  6% 10% 20% 11%
Disapprove 86  91  93  84  77  86

Why Disapprove Of Bush Job?^        Why Approve Of Bush Job?^
All options (vol)       44%         Economic policies        28%
Iraq                    26          9/11 response            16
Economic policies       18          Abort/gay marr positions 15
Rising gas prices       14          All options (vol)        15
Katrina                  9          War on terror            10
War on terror            9          Handling Iraq war        10
Abort/gay marr positions 6          Tax policies             10
Tax policies             6          Fed. court nominations    4
Environmental policies   6          Environmental policies    3
Fed. court nominations   3

What was that part again about too many cooks in the kitchen? How about too many consultants in the war room? The latest crop of '06 contenders feature a few former consultants and state party chairs, inevitably bringing the behind-the-scenes campaign types to the front of the podium. It's not a new idea, but it shows the force consultants have on the political process has become more prominent than a few cycles ago.

So here's our list of consultants for office. If you can think of any more '06 candidates who were once consultants, we welcome your comments:

AZ SEN candidate Jim Pederson (D), the former head of the AZ Dems that elected Gov. Janet Napolitano to office, also chaired the Fair Election Campaign.
WA SEN candidate Mike McGavick (R), who worked on former Sen. Slade Gorton’s campaigns in '80 and '88 before becoming Gorton's CoS for three years.
OR GOV candidate Kevin Mannix (R) was the former head of the Oregon Republican Party before he stepped down to run for his statewide bid last year.
ME GOV candidate David Emery (R), a former congressman, ran his own polling and marketing firm for the past 15 years before tossing his hat into the race.
Brian Kennedy (R) for IA-01 is also a former party chair who founded Campaign of One, a GOP committee that sponsors internet-based campaigns.
Ralph Reed (R) for GA LG once ran the state's GOP and chaired the SE Region/GA effort for Bush-Cheney '04. He's also started his own PR firm, Century Strategies.
John Raese (R) was the head of the WV GOP chair before running for WV SEN.
VA Sen's Harris Miller (D) was the former head of the Fairfax Co. Dems and SD Gubernatorial candidate Jack Billion (D) used to run his county's Dem organization.

And then there's the inevitable pundit-turned-politician Allan Lichtman (D) for MD SEN. Not quite an inside operative, but imagine what kind of VA Senate campaign UVA's Larry Sabato would run? [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

Per the AP,, Fitzgerald convened the Plame case grand jury this morning.

Fox News reports that Karl Rove will testify this afternoon.

More, from National Review's Byron York:

"The source did not comment further, but one matter that has arisen since Rove's last testimony -- counting today, he has testified five times -- is the involvement of Time's Viveca Novak in the CIA leak matter. Last October, according to her own account, Novak received a call from Rove lawyer Robert Luskin in which Luskin said he had told Fitzgerald about a conversation he, Luskin, had had with Novak. The Rove side apparently believed the Novak conversation would be exculpatory for Rove, and it led to still more investigation by the grand jury -- which may be the topic of today's testimony."

If "American Idol" doesn't give you something to sing about, you can always turn to cable.

Reporters must have filled their cars up yesterday because none of them seemed too impressed with Pres. Bush's gas plan:

MSNBC's Shuster described it as: "Under intense pressure to get gas prices down and get his poll numbers up" ("Hardball," 4/25).

CNN's Malveaux: "As gas prices go up, the president's approval numbers go down" ("Situation Room," 4/25).

MSNBC's Scarborough: "September 11 called for bold action, true leadership, energy independence. All we got today seemed to be a desperate attempt by an unpopular president to stop the political bleeding" ("Scarborough Country," 4/25).

FNC's Cameron: "With gasoline and oil prices hitting new records, President Bush signed on to a bipartisan push in Congress for an investigation into possible price gouging" ("Special Report," 4/25).

Boston Globe's Klein: "This is really a symbolic move. It isn't really going to do much about prices, it isn't going to do much about the supply and demand of oil in the United States or elsewhere" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/25). [EMILY GOODIN]

According to administration officials, former admin. officials and Republicans who know Snow and Pres. Bush, their mutual respect stems from several sources.

One is -- both are evangelicals. That link binds together their worldview and most especially, their view of their place in the larger scheme of things.

Another is -- Snow sees Bush as a political gambler, in a good way. He wrote, during the Miers nomination mess, that Bush "possesses a gambler's daring and patience. He loves to linger over a controversy until his adversaries fidget and sweat. His pleas to "trust me" have the effect of dragging out the drama -- and imparting the sense that when the Senate finally casts its votes, the guy from Midland again will enjoy the last laugh."

Snow has privately criticized how the White House communicates with just about every audience. Sources said he was granted latitude to add or subtract staff. But Bush advisers are also roundly and strenuously denying that Snow's ascendance implies some sort of declension or de facto demotion for senior presidential counselor Dan Bartlett.

Still, Snow, said one Republican close to the White House, "is an adult."

That's one of the several talking point concepts that "senior administration officials" and "Republicans close to the White House" will try to propagate today. Another is that Bush picked him NOT based on his loyalty to the Bush-Texas-axis but because Snow merited the job. A third is that Snow will bring the touch of the common man to the job.

An open question among presidential allies is whether the left-leaning mainstream media will embrace Snow as their savior.
Certainly, the Republican base will love Snow's repartee with, say, Jessica Yellin and David Gregory.

But if the press room exchanges become more partisan and more acrimonious, which is a distinct possibility with a pundit ruling the roost, does that relegitimize the White House press corps, as the White House wants to do? Or does it serve to (ingeniously?) highlight the differences between the media establishment and the president? [MARC AMBINDER]

A Diageo/Hotline poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) leading the WH '08 Dem primary field with 38% among regis. Dems. The closest competitors are John Kerry (14%) and John Edwards (13%).

More, later...

The Tony Snow announcement, with POTUS, at 9:00 am ET.

(And, btw, is this "late" morning announcement an indication that Snowy will be doing things differently?)

Per Human Events Online (through Saul Anuzis's blog):

"National Commitee members Chuck Yob and Holly Hughes, along with Ambassador Ron Weiser announced that Senator John McCain's PAC will be donating [a total of more than] $100,000 to [the] district, county and local party organizations throughout the state. Senator McCain has raised millions of dollars in Michigan for our statewide candidates, state and local parties and his PAC, Straight Talk America."

"John Yob announced that he is handling several states on behalf of Straight Talk America PAC."

Some more info:

Earlier in the day, RNC committeefolks Chuck Yob and Holly Hughes e-mailed county chairs, district chairs and the state committee to invite them to an 8:00 pm ET conference call. The details were kept closely held. On the call, Yob announced that STA agreed to give EVERY party organization in the state money.
The total will exceed 100K.

Cue the Snow-In-XX metaphors. More of them.

The Hotline has confirmed that the White House is expected to announce tomorrow morning that Tony Snow will be named press secretary.

More, from Fox News.

And Howie Kurtz.

Party activists will play an outsized role in determining the nominees to succeed Rep. Mark Kennedy (R-MN 06).

Over the weekend, all four GOP candidates agreed to select a nominee early at the district convention, held in two weeks (5/5-6).

The decision will likely render the late 9/12 primary meaningless, and give the nominee a head start on the campaign.

Last month, both Dem contenders ('04 nominee Patty Wetterling and Elwyn Tinklenberg) reached a similar, informal agreement for their 5/13 convention.

Who will benefit from the early nominations? The GOP avoids an extended campaign, which has turned negative in the fight over delegates. While all candidates tout their conservative credentials, state Sen. Michelle Bachmann (R) may benefit most from the convention, where her outspoken social conservatism plays well.

Among Dems, Tinklenberg may also be eager for an early resolution. He trailed in money raised and CoH last quarter, but also outspent the field -- sending out over a dozen direct mail pieces. However, Wetterling is a known commodity among activists, and her more liberal profile more closely reflects their viewpoints. Bottom line, if either convo reaches too far to the wings for its nominee, then the other party may have their opening. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

More evidence of subtle and overt RNC outreach to conservative Jews: the first (and only) commemoration statement we received today for Yom Hashoah came in the name of Ken Mehlman, the (Jewish) chair of the party.

Mehlman:

"Never Again is more than a slogan but a plan of action. Never Again can decent people remain silent in the face of anti-Semitism, racism or any other bigotry. Never Again can free nations turn their back on refugees seeking to escape tyranny. And Never Again can the world permit megalomaniacal and anti-Semitic despots to arm themselves under the false illusion of peace in our times."

And we hear that on Thursday, Dep Sec of State Bob Zoellick will keynote the Days of Remembrance ceremony in the Capitol rotunda. He'll likely draw some parallels between the Holocaust and the ongoing genocide in Darfur.

Tomorrow, Republicans close to the White House expect Pres. Bush to formally name Tony Snow as his new press secretary.

Quietly, researchers at the White House have examined hundreds of Snow's radio show transcripts and newspaper columns. They expect the White House press corps, in news articles and at early briefings, to publicly vet Snow, confronting him with his past statements. After the initial frission ... opinions differ.

Meanwhile, David Brock's MediaMatters is on a crusade to prove that Snow is a... Republican conservative (?) who, in MM's eyes, gets things wrong.

The NRA endorses a Dem for statewide office in OH.

"The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Ohio gubernatorial candidate Congressman Ted Strickland for the May 2 primary election, the Strickland for Governor campaign announced today.

Strickland received an "A" rating from the NRA based on his consistent legislative record in support of Second Amendment rights in Congress and his responses to the 2006 NRA candidate questionnaire.

In an endorsement letter to Strickland, Chris Cox, chairman of the NRA-PVF, acknowledged Strickland's pro-sportsmen voting record as a member of Congress and urged NRA members and supporters to vote in the primary.

"During your tenure in the U.S. House of Representatives, you have demonstrated a proven commitment to the defense of our Second Amendment rights," Cox said. "The NRA-PVF urges all NRA members, gun owners and sportsmen to vote for you in Ohio's Democratic primary for governor on May 2, 2006.".

Spotted in CA today: ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner.

He's in Sacramento ahead of the party's convention this weekend. He meets today with state senate pres. pro-tem Don Perata and maj. leader Gloria Romero. He later meets with Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. He dines tonight with various CA labor leaders.

He didn't leave the party's rank and file behind: Warner bought lunch for staff at state Dem HQ: Sandwiches, vegetarian chicken (these are CA Dems, after all), cheesecake and chocolate cake.

Warner ends his CA trip a dinner sponsored by the Hispana Organized For Political Equality.

"We can't use all the corn -- people gotta eat -- animals gotta eat too!"

He's got a point...

Update: per WH pooler Julie Mason of the Houston Chronicle: "En route [to the Marriott Wardman Park], the motorcade passed the Exxon station next to the Watergate, where gas prices were $3.29, $3.39 and $3.49 a gallon. Just saying."

A trial balloon for the Allen presidential campaign?

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) wrote a letter 4/21 to Armed Services Chair Sen. John Warner asking for a hearing for the "retired generals who have called" on Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld to resign to "air their views."

So she hasn't called on Rumsfeld to resign but she will be able to take credit for bringing the generals to the Hill.

Clinton's request came just one day after ex- VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) became one of the last '08 hopefuls to call for Rumsfeld's resignation. [NORA MCALVANAH]

A week after White House press secretary Scott McClellan suddenly resigned, and -- nothing.

Late last week, White House chief of staff Josh Bolten directly (firmly but politely) asked senior administration officials to stop unburdening themselves to the process-hungry Washington press corps. That explains, in part, why speculative chatter has diminished.

In the meantime, Fox Newser Tony Snow is said by Republicans familiar with the negotiations to have asked for guaranteed access to the president's ear and to an unusually large degree of latitude to reconfigure the WH press operation. That pleases the new chief of staff, who wants to relegitimize the press podium in the Brady briefing room.

But Snow, not content to be a herald, also wants near-complete control over what he says from the podium, be it bromides, platitudes or substance. That would encroach on the broad portfolio of responsibilities that Dan Bartlett claims for himself.

As of this morning, Snow's colleagues at the White House haven't been formally told that he's coming -- or if he's coming, when the announcement will out.

It's a safe bet that the president's advisers don't want to give the White House press corps a personnel announcement to deflect attention from the president's four-point plan to ease fears about gas prices.

BTW: Under the Bolten regime, expect to see far more X-point-plans and regular metric-tracking of said points. Bolten is a metric fan. [MARC AMBINDER]

Gas prices are high, there are still illegal immigrants and Pres. Bush's poll numbers continue to stay low -- all of which you'd know if you had watched cable last night.

David Gregory hosted "Hardball" last night and most of the show was on high gas prices. "Lou Dobbs Tonight" was all about immigration. "Special Report" led with the bombings at the Egyptian resort. The roundtable discussed the new Osama bin Laden tape and the situation in Iraq.

WE MAY HAVE A WINNER

CNN's Malveaux reports: "Tony Snow is ... expected to accept the job as White House press secretary, succeeding Scott McClellan, that he has been offered this position, and sources are saying that he is highly likely to publicly make the announcement of his decision at the White House very shortly, perhaps as early as within the next few days -- conflicting reports whether or not it could even happen tomorrow" ("AC 360," 4/24).

And ex-WH adviser David Gergen points out: "Tony Snow does have the leverage that neither of his predecessors would have had. And that is, if he walks out on them because they're not open enough, it would be hugely devastating to the administration, so, that he, unlike Scott McClellan, can go in and say, gentlemen, this isn't good. The press has a legitimate need here. We have got to give it to them. And they know that the moment he walks out the door and disgusted, if they are really totally closed or they lie or whatever, that is a bleak, bleak day at the White House. His predecessors never had that leverage" ("AC 360," 4/24).

GETTING TECHNICAL

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), on not appearing with Bush when he was in CA talking about immigration: "My district line starts a few miles away from where the president was actually speaking. However, let me note that my lack of attendance had more to do with my respect for the president. ... I so strongly disagree with him on this illegal immigration issue that I felt it would be more respectful for me to stay away rather than to show up and look glum and refuse to applaud and things like that" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/24).

PLAYING THE BLAME GAME

FNC's Hannity, on high gas prices: "I give blame for high gas prices, 30 years of the Democrats beholden to the extreme environmental movement. ... I blame you liberals for this" ("Hannity & Colmes," 4/24).

MSNBC's Scarborough: "Unfortunately, the oil companies know that in George Bush and Dick Cheney, two people that I supported, two people that I voted for twice, two people that I'd vote for again if they were running against John Kerry and Al Gore, you've got two people who are oil-state politicians, one from Texas and one from Wyoming" ("Situation," 4/24).

O'REILLY IS WATCHING YOU

FNC's O'Reillly, in his "Talking Points" memo: "Any media person who uses smear tactics in any way, not just on me, but any way will be featured on 'The Factor' and inducted into the billoreilly.com 'Hall of Shame.' We will keep a running list of media smear merchants on the Web site, in addition to our don't buy, don't advertise list" (4/24). [EMILY GOODIN]

The DCCC believes that elections are won one Trader Joe's parking lot at a time, apparently.

Will the conservative movement survive the next election? That's one question the Council on National Policy will debate at their next meeting, which begins May 11th.

The CNP, thanks to their influential membership roster, their secret, thrice-yearly conclave, and their role in fomenting political movements like Pat Buchanan's 1992 presidential candidacy, is by now inured to the conspiracy theories about their reach and influence.

They were founded in the early 70s as the conservative alternative to the Council on Foreign Relations. But with hawks ascendant (and discredited?) and numerous other (public) groups competing for the attention of elites, CNP members have begun to question their own relevance.

One policy-maker who doesn't: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, the keynote speaker on Saturday night. Our download wouldn't be complete without the location: the Ritz-Carlton in Tyson's Corner.

Per our report from last week's Shad Planking that ex-Secretary of the Navy/VA SEN candidate Jim Webb (D) was seen wearing a Confederate flag sticker, Webb's camp sends in the following statement:

"Jim Webb was not aware he was wearing the lapel sticker. When he became aware he was wearing it, he removed the sticker."

The blogosphere was created for weekends like this. The firing of ex-CIA officer Mary McCarthy has all the ingredients for a blog feeding frenzy: hot-button issue ... check; crystal clear partisan players ... check; perceived MSM under-coverage ... check; possibility for wild conspiracy theories ... check.

Plus -- GAS: And The GOP Blames Whom?
--RUMSFELD: More Good Than Harm For Dems?
--WH 08: Fence Sitter

All in Today's Blogometer.

Ethan Wingfield, the exec. dir of Students for (Sen. Lincoln) Chafee was elected chair of the College Republican Federation of Rhode Island over the weekend.

Wingfield's opponent, Tom Merrigan, was endorsed by Chafee's primary challenger, Steve Laffey. The race got ugly, with Merrigan challenging Wingfield's conservative bonafides. Wingfield responded by proclaiming himself a "Jesse Helms Republican."

We hear..

Sen. George Allen (R) won a straw poll this weekend conducted among 90 Young Republican leaders from across the country. Sen. John McCain followed closely behind. The small voting pool (with a Virginia bias) dilutes the already-questionable significance of said poll, but it's worth noting that the voters included managers and deputy managers of congressional races, field operatives who won big chunks of Ohio for pres. Bush, and others. Also Saturday, a presentation by McCain's PAC exec. dir., Craig Goldman, drew several Young Republican notables.

It was a hodgepodge of topics this weekend -- gas prices, Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld, the WH staff changes, the CIA officer fired for leaking to the Washington Post and the new Osama bin Laden tape.

ALL ABOUT IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) was on "This Week." On the new bin Laden tape: "This is one of the reasons that Donald Rumsfeld should resign."

ABC's Stephanopoulos asked him: "This morning you have an essay in the Manchester Union Leader in New Hampshire, defending Manchester's right to have the first primary. ... I was talking to one senior Democratic strategist yesterday who said you're basically saying only white people's votes count in those early states."

Kerry responds: "That's so much bunk. I don't know how to describe that comment in any other way than to say that that's absolutely ridiculous. The converse of that is to suggest that the people in New Hampshire and Iowa are insensitive to those issues and don't care about them."

More: "I'm for certainly trying to find a way to broaden the process, but I think New Hampshire has proven itself. If you look at the democratic process, worthy of listening to candidates, worthy of really going through the process in a remarkably effective way, I wouldn't have been the nominee if Iowa and New Hampshire didn't listen the way that they listened. I think they've earned their spurs in a sense" (ABC, 4/23).

[EMILY GOODIN]

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

The giant-in-waiting in RI is obvious. After taking over a mess of a city run by the mob and crawling with investigating FBI agents, Providence Mayor David Cicilline (D) is getting rave reviews. And while Dems' majorities in the legislature -- a more than 4-1 advantage -- are not threatened, the party seems to be making a concerted effort to reach out more to Hispanic voters. GOPers have their bright spots, but at the moment, they're clinging to the Gov mansion and a Sen seat which, thanks to a strong primary challenge, may be lost to Dems. [REID WILSON]

With 100% of precincts reporting, Ray Nagin and Mitch Landrieu have advanced to the runoff, with Nagin running a lot stronger than polls indicated.

Nagin       38%

Landrieu    29

Forman      17

Couhig      10

Others       6

When: 7:30 pm CDT, 30 mins til the polls close in New Orleans.

Where: Ray Nagin's election-night party at the New Orleans Marriott on Canal Street.

Who: Nobody. Media types outnumber Nagin supporters, about 10 to 1. There are only 5 media types. Do the math. [JOHN MERCURIO]

DNC Chair Howard Dean said 4/22 that Dems have 175 organizers in all 50 states, "working hard, organizing the Democratic Party in every precinct in every state."

Closing the committee's spring meeting in New Orleans, Dean attacked GOPers and the Bush admin. for its response to Hurricane Katrina, saying "Republicans have cut and run when it comes to rebuilding the gulf coast. We won't."

"Here in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, our fellow Americans suffered; our nation suffered a great tragedy, and many are still suffering, trying to rebuild, trying to come home, trying to move ahead with their lives.

"Here in the Gulf Coast and around the country we have seen our American community coming together as Americans, that's what we do in times of crisis – we band together, and we don't leave anyone behind. Our current Republican government will be judged by how it treats Americans of the gulf coast, and how it has treated, or mis-treated our American community."

Deviating from his prepared remarks, Dean also criticized Republicans pushing punitive immigration-reform plans, saying that criminalizing illegal immigrants is "nothing more than scapegoating Hispanics [in order] to win elections, and we will not do that."[JOHN MERCURIO]

When DNC Chair Howard Dean this morning paid tribute to his predecessor, the late Ron Brown, who died 10 years ago this month, Brown's widow Alma, returned the favor.

"I know you've had several chairman in the past 10 years, and you've loved them all. But I have to say I think Howard reminds me most of Ron. Just like when Ron took office, people questioned whether he was the right person for the job, whether business people would support him, whether he would help Democrats win, just whether he was the right choice. And just like Ron, Howard was the right choice. I'm happy that he's here, and I hope he keeps doing what he's doing." [JOHN MERCURIO]

A mid-May fundraiser for Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC suggests that a major artery of cash Pres. Bush's campaign had effectively siphoned off in 2000 is now flowing to McCain.

An invitation circulated to Republican donors advertises a May 15th event in Dallas featuring McCain and RNC chairman Ken Mehlman.

Among the co-chairs are Jeanne Phillips, a chair of Bush's '04 inaugural committee, former TX governor Bill Clements, Jeanne Cox, daughter of the late Sen. John Tower, Tom Hicks, the owner of the Texas Rangers, Roger Staubauch, who does not require an appositive, billionaire brothers Charles and Sam Wyly, ex-Rep. Tom Loeffler, Nancy Loeffler, and Kronos CEO Harold Simmons -- among others.

(The Wylys, notes Chris Cillizza, are "the wealthy Dallas-based brothers who funded and ran "Republicans for Clean Air," a 527 group that attacked McCain for his environmental record during the 2000 primaries. In the aftermath of his defeat, McCain specifically cited the group in his plea for more and better campaign finance reform, saying the groups were "making a mockery of existing campaign finance laws.")

The reception and dinner cost $5K a piece, with a maximum donation of $10K per couple. $1K buys a ticket to the reception, which Tom Hicks and wife Cinda Hicks will host. Bill Clements and wife Rita Clements will host the dinner.

Mehlman is a bear on the fundraising circuit and has helped virtually every potential presidential candidate raise money for their political action commitee or re-election campaign.

McCain uses his PAC's earnings to fund cross-country travel to raise money for Republican candidates. The PAC raised approximately $374K in March and has $1.05 million in the bank.

His advisers, anticipating a competitive Republican nomination fight and the elephantine cash reserves of Democrat Hillary Clinton, are building a network of major donation bundlers and hope to recruit a plurality of Bush's Pioneers and Rangers. [MARC AMBINDER]

That's what chair Doc Hastings (R) suggests:

"Howard Berman is widely respected, both as a legislator and an individual. I know him and like him. We have worked together before and I'm looking forward to working with him again. I'm confident that now we'll finally be able to get the Ethics Committee moving."

Context, here.

Statement:

"At the time I had a meal with Mitchell Wade, I thought that my campaign would be reimbursing my share of the cost. I later discovered that somehow this was not done. I then discussed with my staff the best way to correct this oversight. Neither I nor my advisors ever thought it would be appropriate to reimburse Mr.Wade in the midst of the government investigations into his conduct. Just to resolve any questions, I have donated to a local Florida charity $100 which will more than adequately compensate for the cost of my beverage and appetizers.

"The night of our dinner, Mr. Wade purchased several expensive bottles of wine which he took home with him uncorked -- this is apparently the reason the bill was so high."

"I take full responsibility for this oversight and continue to operate under a policy of openness, transparency, and accountability to the people of my district and the state of Florida. While the rules are complicated, as a member of Congress, it is my responsibility to know and obey them. It has always been my intent to conduct myself in an ethical manner, and I regret this oversight."

Per Roll Call:

"Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.), under fire from Repulicans and watchdog group over his personal financial dealings, will step aside, at least temporarily, as ranking member of the House ethics committee, according to Democratic insiders."

House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), in a statement, said that Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA) will take Mollohan's place.

Pelosi: "The allegations against Congressman Mollohan originate from the National Legal and Policy Center, which engages in highly partisan attacks on Democrats. These attacks are an attempt to deflect attention from the long list of Republican criminal investigations, indictments, plea agreements and resignations that have resulted from the reported long-term and extensive criminal enterprise run out of House Republican leadership offices. The Republican culture of corruption has been ignored by the Ethics Committee for a year and a half following the decision of the Republican leadership to fire their own chairman and some Committee members for doing their job."

The Hotline's John Mercurio is in the Crescent City all weekend, so stay with On Call for complete coverage of the race. John's first dispatch is after the jump.

....

In danger of becoming the city's first mayor in 60 years to be kicked out of office, Nagin appears casually undaunted and, in an interview Friday, predicted he'll lead the balloting Saturday. If as expected, the runoff becomes a debate between him and Landrieu, he said, "it becomes a debate about the experience I have bringing this city back together and building it up versus whatever he has to show. What that is, we'll have to see."

The city of New Orleans made it through what residents call The Storm, but tomorrow only two of 22 mayoral candidates will survive the primary election to battle it out in a May 20 run-off.

Mayor Ray Nagin (D), Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (D), and Audubon CEO Ron Forman (D) are considered the top three contenders, but with less than 24 hours to go, it is Nagin and Landrieu who should feel confident. As the only major black candidate and as the public face of this stressed city, Nagin's spot in the run-off is now almost assured. Meanwhile, Landrieu has surged in recent weeks and now appears poised to meet Nagin in the run-off.

A Tulane Univ. poll released 4/19 showed Landrieu leading with 26%, Nagin with 21% and Forman with 18%. (Its important to note that it was conducted via land lines, which many residents and especially African-Americans still do not have; and the sample was 48% black and 48% white, whereas African-Americans are expected to account for over 60%of the vote). Nagin had the strongest showing in the black community with 43%, while Forman had the strongest showing with white voters, with 40%. But perhaps the key finding was that Landrieu was everyone's second choice, black or white -- and as John Kerry can attest, that's not a bad place to be in a primary. Landrieu spokesperson Emily Sneed cites their "broad-based balance of support" and says Landrieu "is the only candidate with solid support in the African-American and white communities." His main challenge will be waging a strong GOTV operation. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

OPEN SEATS

COMPETITIVE VETERANS

FRESHMEN

One of the more surprising figures this quarter comes from OH 13 atty. Betty Sutton (D), who raised over $423K -- the most among all statewide challengers. She's spent 30 times more than her biggest rival, ex-Rep. Tom Sawyer (D).

Other tidbits from the IN, NC and OH FEC reports:

-- Rep. Bob Ney's (R-OH 18) bank account has dried up; he raised the second-least amount of money ($142K) among incumbents in our top 50 races.

-- Charlie Wilson (D) is already draining his coffers for the write-in effort in OH 06, spending ($469K) almost four times what he brought in ($142K). State Rep. Chuck Blasdel (R) now has over $360K CoH.

-- Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH 15) isn't taking county cmsr Mary Jo Kilroy's (D) challenge lightly. She raised $742K, second-most among all incumbents (And $435K is from PACs, most among all candidates.)

-- Banker Frank Guglielmi (R) spends $650K of his own money for OH 04 GOP primary.

-- Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN 08) has banked less than one-third of the money that he had at this point in '04.

-- Ex-Skins QB Heath Shuler (D) outraises Rep. Taylor (R-NC 11) but he's gotten more coverage lately for his NFL career than his campaign.

10.4.5 404 Not Found. The server has not found anything matching the Request-URI..

The error message annoys the heck out of everybody, but it means something special to a tech millionaire like Mark Warner.

Donors in his orbit whisper about a secret "Project 404." It's the RAM of his presidential aspirations.

According to one donor who has been briefed about it, Project 404 refers to the number of potential donors -- 404 of them -- who Warner hopes will agree to raise at least $10,000 for his presidential campaign.

(A Warner spokeswoman declined to comment.)

In June, those already aboard Warner's finance team will gather at the Jefferson Hotel in Richmond for his first major contributor retreat. [MARC AMBINDER]

The South Carolina Democratic Leadership Council (SCDLC) launched a "statewide" e-Poll 4/19 on the '08 election. The 20 question survey, the first of its kind from SCDLC, asks respondents about their '08 Dem picks and a series of other questions on SC politics.

SCDLC exec dir Phil Noble says the initial response to the survey has been excellent, generating 1,182 responses in the last 48 hours. The e-poll, which is being conducted "completely online via e-mail" and through the SCDLC's Web site, will run until 4/28. The results will be announced before the Dem State Convo in Columbia on 4/29.

The poll asks respondents: "If the Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?," providing 10 choices, including the usual suspects-- like HRC and John Edwards-- and some surprises for good measure, like Tom Brokow (who has since been removed). Interestingly, Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) who is keynoting the SC Dem's JJ dinner in Colombia, SC on 4/28 was left off the list. Widely considered an '08 candidate and the chair of the centrist DLC, Vilsack was included in the poll's next question about "second choice" 08ers.

Asked about the omission, Nobel said leaving Vilsack off was a mistake. Nobel: "I just realized that 20 minutes ago. Appropriate changes will be made." But Nobel also said he did not expect results to change too much with Vilsack's addition. Nobel: "Vilsack only has 2% right now in the second choice."

As of now, Nobel said the poll "is showing no surprises." Nobel: "Nothing really unexpected so far, remember that Edwards won our primary in 2004." [NORA MCALVANAH]

The Hotline's Quinn McCord crunched the latest filings from potential presidential candidates.

It turns out that three Dems -- (Hillary, Kerry and Bayh) top the list.

Warner, Frist and Kerry were the busiest PAC fundraisers during the first quarter, too.

1. The Change to Win labor coalition kicked off first major television ad of the cycle -- both spot and cable. The ads promote the group's Make Work Pay campaig and spotlight corporate CEO pay in contrast to the tough times faced by "millions of hard working Americans." They'll air most prominently on Sunday during the morning talk shows in at least ten large markets. MSNBC and Comedy Central refused them. The script is after the jump.

2. Also: AZ Sen. candidate Jim Pederson (D) uses John McCain in his second TV ad, which takes Sen. Jon Kyl (R) to task on immigration. The first line: "Senator McCain says that Jon Kyl's immigration plan borders on fantasy." Pederson calls his own plan "realistic and a long-term solution."

Per a press release:

"House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (Mo.) today announced that he and his wife Abigail have adopted a son. Alexander Charles Blunt, 18 months, was born near Moscow, Russia, in 2004."

"Abby and I are so glad to add this little guy to our family," Blunt said.

"So far, Charlie has spent every day of his young life in an orphanage or hospital."

"We are so fortunate and so pleased to be able to share our lives and opportunities with him."

"The Blunts had worked with a Texas-based agency for a year prior to the adoption. Blunt has three adult children and four grandchildren."

Announced this a.m.: CNN's senior executive for political coverage, Tom Hannon, is taking a sabbatical. He's been with CNN for 25 years -- that is -- forever.

Molly Levinson will be the interim pol dir.

The latest FEC filing from Sen. Bill Frist's Volunteer PAC provides a window into the inner workings of his national political operation.

Frist's VolPAC took in $276in March, bringing his total for the year to more than $1.2 million.

Frist has used his PAC to assemble a contributor database he hopes will generate sizable returns should he decide to run for president.

In Feb, the campaign sent $150K to the TN GOP -- a few weeks before the party hosted the Southern Republican Leadership Conference.

VolPAC contributed a total of $40,000 to 4 candidates and two party entities. And it helped to bundle several dozens of contrbutions to Senate candidates Tom Kean, Jr., (NJ), Michael Steele (MD), Mark Kennedy (MN), Mike McGavick (WA), Rick Santorum (PA) and Mike DeWine (OH).

The PAC employs eight, including chief Chip Saltsman and new communications liaison Janey Rudd. It paid a consulting firm run by ex-RNC comm. dir. Jim Dyke more than $20K.

Notable contributors, according to PoliticalMoneyLine.com, include NBC CEO Robert Wright, who donated $1K, Sequoia Capital's Tom Stephenson, who gave $5K and Cracker Barrel chairman emeritas Dan Evins, who contributed $5K.

What is it with Mark Warner and photo editors?

First, his big splash on the cover of the NYT mag is sorta marred when his blue shirt and blue tie are made to look light purple and deep purple, respectively.

Now, on his maiden trip to Iowa, Warner makes news calling for Rummy to resign, but again can't get a break from the photog's.

He is made to look like his vertically-striped dress shirt has gone horribly awry and, even worse, as though his head was photoshop'd onto his body.

Everyone may hate Chris on UPN, but he's much loved on cable, debuting a new feature last night. MSNBC's Matthews: "Tonight on 'Hardball,' it's the debut of 'Hardball' plaza. We're talking to the people." What's interesting is that the plaza was in the courtyard of the same building that houses Fox News' DC bureau and C-SPAN. It's possible Brian Lamb has already named the courtyard the "Road to the White House Plaza" (4/20).

A DIPLOMATIC OOPS

Chinese Pres. Hu's visit, and the problems in the welcoming ceremony, got a lot of attention last night:

FNC's Cameron: "In a very rare occurrence, the White House welcome was disrupted" ("Special Report," 4/20).

CNN's Malveaux: "This really was a diplomatic disaster" ("AC 360," 4/20).

MSNBC's Olbermann: "This country managed to look like the least security-conscious place in the world, and a nation where protesters are dragged away by ominous-looking guards, and the place where an antimedia White House will still give anybody a media pass, and all at the same time, mind you" ("Countdown," 4/20).

NSA Stephen Hadley: "It's an unfortunate incident. It's really not about freedom of speech. You know, freedom of speech is what you're seeing in Lafayette Park right now. But it was a journalist accredited to the delegation, the journalistic delegation, who decided rather than reporting news, they would make the news" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/20).

IN CASE YOU DIDN'T KNOW, GAS IS EXPENSIVE

And the media diligently reported gas prices are up.

FNC's Bill O'Reilly, in his "Talking Points" memo, offered a solution: "Talking Points has suggested a symbolic protest of not buying any gas on Sundays. ... Americans should wise up and buy less gas. We can control this, if we all begin to conserve. ... Let's fight back. Buy less from those people. Send them a message they won't soon forget. 'The Factor' boycott of France impacted that country greatly. A cutback in gas consumption in the USA would immediately scorch the oil companies" (4/20).

NOT SOUNDING THAT ENTHUSED

Tony Snow was on the "O'Reilly Factor" and asked about the WH spokesperson job (and never said which way he was leaning): "You got a massive cut in pay. You have a lot of inconvenience. You don't have as much time to yourself. There's a lot of stuff going on, plus there are no guarantees after you get out of the White House whether there's any landing place."

More: "You've got to be talking about an official administration policy. You got to talk about an official this or that. You can't opine. You can't even make predictions unless they've already been cleared in advance" (FNC, 4/20).

CHEAP LINE TRICK DOESN'T WORK

Donald Trump was in the "Situation Room" to talk about events of the day.

On what he would say to Donald Rumsfeld if Rumsfeld worked for him: "I know what you want me, you want me to say 'You're fired.' But I wouldn't necessarily say that."

Although Wolf Blitzer seemed to really want him to say that because he asked Trump repeatedly: "Why wouldn't you fire Donald Rumsfeld, if he worked to you, and helped get you into this mess, as you described it, in Iraq?" And "Let me press you. Would you [fire him]?"

And Trump was also asked about donating to both John McCain and Hillary Clinton: "I'm not hedging my bets. I know both of them, I respect both of them. Hillary Clinton is a fantastic woman who I've known for a long time, and I know her husband very well. And they're, you know, terrific people. And John McCain, I think I was the first person ever to contribute to his campaign when he was running years and years ago. A friend of his asked me to make a contribution, I did. I heard it was the first contribution, political contribution, he ever got" (CNN, 4/20).

AND WE'LL END ON THIS NOTE

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "Timing is everything in politics, just as it in is love" ("AC 360," CNN, 4/20). [EMLY GOODIN]

Though Sen. George Allen's (R) political prospects, both near and long-term, were the focal point of yesterday's Shad Planking, there was certainly chatter about other races in the air.

And none more so than about who will run should Allen vacate his seat or should senior Sen. John Warner (R) call it a career in '08.

The discussion was centered around one man: ex-NRCC chair/Rep. Tom Davis (R).

%      African American    ('00 estimate)
DC     60%        
MS     36.3
SC     29.5
AL     26
AR     15.7
MI     14.2
NV     6.8
CO     3.8
WV     3.2
AZ     3.1
IA     2.1
NH     0.7

WAKEFIELD, VA -- As it does every third Wednesday in April, VA's political epicenter moved 40 miles east from Richmond to the piney woods outside of this small town yesterday. Known more for its free libations and easy access to many of the commonwealth's most prominent pols than the nearly-inedible fish that gives the event its name, the Shad Planking is the can't-miss rite of VA's political spring. Part political festival, part booze fest, the gathering draws candidates, would-be candidates, past candidates and the junkies who love em all -- and love the free draft beer they hand out even more.

Now in its 58th year, the Ruritan-sponsored soiree has changed some over the years -- most conservative Dems have become conservative GOPers, blacks and women are now welcome and, perhaps more amazingly, Northern VA'ians are, too. Yet in many ways, it retains the same gossipy, back-slapping character it has had since they nailed the first freshly-caught, migrating shad to a board and cooked it over an open fire amid the peanut fields of Southside VA. Candidates shake hands, activists from all parts bend their ear, staffers pour cold ones in campaign cups and the locals ignore the hoopla for the fish, cole slaw and cornbread.

And this being VA, with its unique, every-year-is-an-election-year cycle, there's always a fall campaign to kibitz over. And this being a crowd full of politicos, there's always the next campaign to mull over. This year was different in only one way. That next campaign may be their junior Senator's bid for the WH.

For now, though, the marquee race is the SEN matchup featuring that incumbent, Sen. George Allen (R). Allen and his supporters were out in full force. Wherever he walked, he drew a crowd. With never fewer than a dozen sign-waving supporters at his side, Allen, a Shad Planking vet, felt right at home catching up with old friends, signing autographs and working through his ever-present tin of dip. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

"Law and Order" may rule the broadcast nets, but cable will always give us chaos.

The WH staff changes were the talk of TV last night:

MSNBC's Olbermann noted of the next WH spokesperson: "The first three rumored candidates could carry conflicts
of news interest with Fox, with CNN, with NBC" ("Countdown," 4/19). But CNN's Malveaux reported that could be what the admin wants: "They are even potentially looking at journalists, perhaps, as filling Scott McClellan's seat. They say they want things to be more open and more efficient here at the White House, specifically with the press. We will see if all of that, of course, is just spin" ("AC 360," 4/19).

But one candidate took herself out the running. On the "Situation Room" last night, Torie Clarke addressed reports the WH wanted her for the job: "Not happening. It's not under consideration. They're not going to ask. And I'm not going to do it" (CNN, 4/19).

FNC's Cameron, on rumored candidate Tony Snow: "He's still mulling over all the angles, talking to family. He has not given an indication of his timetable. The White House is very tight-lipped about all of this, but there are still a number of other people being discussed" ("Special Report," 4/19).

CNN's Roberts: "I think the money is probably riding between Rob Nichols and Tony Snow" ("Situation Room," 4/19).

On "Countdown" last night, Washington Post's Milbank talked about the possibility Snow may get the gig: "It does raise some questions. We first have to ask if Tony's going to get back pay, and we then have to ask, is this just the beginning of a trend? Does Sean Hannity replace Rumsfeld at the Pentagon? Does Bill O'Reilly get the FBI? Then the man is really going to have some cops, Keith, and your viewers are going to be in some serious trouble."

Olbermann: "I'm screwed" (4/19).

WH Counselor Dan Bartlett, on McClellan: "This is not an indication that he did a poor job. This is just an indication that it's time for a new team to come in and help the president sprint to the finish" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/19).

Time's Klein: "This has been a White House that has been far more interested in winning the daily news cycle, winning the week, than planning out strategy ... over the long term. That is a Karl Rove signature" ("AC 360," CNN, 4/19).

IT'S ALL ABOUT OUR NEEDS

It's interesting that the WH should announce the Rove change along with the McClellan news, because the TV last night was 90 percent about McClellan, with a little bit about Rove thrown in at the end.

New York Times' Bumiller: "Karl is being cast in this way of being very happy about this, even though it is seen by some Republicans in Washington as certainly as a diminishment of his role. But I think it is true that right now Republicans are facing such difficult prospects in the midterms, and they're viewing Karl as their potential savior here, to see if they can pull this out one more time" ("NewsHour," PBS, 4/19).

NBC's Gregory: "This really signals how important keeping control of Congress is for this White House" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/19).

Newsweek's Wolffe: "Democrats, I don't think they really know how to deal with it. Yes, they're happy to see Karl being moved around. But this guy has been pretty good at elections so far, so it's a mixed bag for them" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/19). [EMILY GOODIN]

It used to be, when a potential pres. candidate made his first _real_ trip to Iowa, his staff would make sure he dialed up Mike Glover, the state's AP ace, or David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register, in advance.

Today -- an Iowa Dem blogger got the call from ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner, who is due in Des Moines tomorrow.

We're sure Glover and Yepsen and others will get plenty of time with Warner, and we'll go out on a limb to say that they remain, at this juncture, more influential.

As he prepares to run in 2008, Warner, assisted by web strategist Jerome Armstrong, wants to harness the energy of the pragmatic wing of the liberal blogosphere. But as Warner knows, it ain't so much how many bloggers he charms now -- and he's charmed a bunch, including Markos Moulitsas -- it's what he says (and does) later on. [MARC AMBINDER]

On CNN's Situation Room just now, asked whether she'd take the job:

"Not happening. It's not under consideration. They're not going to ask. And I'm not going to do it."

Friends said Scott McClellan "had gotten the internal signal and wanted to get it over with" (Time.com). Meanwhile, his departure "frees him up" to work on his mother's TX GOV bid (Houston Chronicle online).

"It was always a great honor to be mentioned by the great mentioner" -- FNC's Tony Snow (TV Newser).

"Sorry, Trent" -- CNN's John Roberts, after reading an email from Trent Duffy asking that Roberts include him on the list of McClellan replacements (WashingtonPost.com).

BTW: Dan Bartlett said on Fox that "no" -- he doesn't want to take McClellan's place on the podium.

The newly-married Bremerian ear-bender is in Africa, on honeymoon, with Campbell Brown.

Also: new WH DCoS Joel Kaplan just returned from his honeymoon. We're not sure why that's interesting, but our conscience wouldn't be clear if we neglected to mention it.

Mark Corallo -- former DOJ comm. dir./dept. press. sec., ex-Livingston press. sec, current for-hire GOP troubleshooter. He served in the Army as an infantry officer. He's a consultant to Karl Rove's Plame case legal team and also a kick-butt softball player. Corallo declined to comment.

Trent Duffy -- recently stepped down as one of Scott's deputies to tend to his new family. At the time, he said he had no interest in Scott's job. Duffy is liked and respected by the press corps and WH staffers alike and is also close to Bolten.

Mark Pfeifle -- in the Bush admin, served as FEMA press sec. and chief press counselor to departing interior Sec. Gale Norton. Also a vet of many a GOP political operation (including the GOP convention in '04). Well-liked by reporters and by Three Who Matter -- Ken Mehlman, Karl Rove and Pres. Bush.

When Katie Couric was named "Evening News" anchor, advocates claimed she would change the face of the network newscast. Among their reasons: Couric's strong interview skills and the fact a woman would be solo network anchor. But in the past few weeks, Brian Williams has been showing off his own interview abilities. On last night's "Nightly News," Williams spoke with ex-WH adviser David Gergen about Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld. On April 6th, he interviewed Sec/State Condoleezza Rice about the situation in Iraq.

And then there's "World News Tonight." Originally, it was going to change the face of network news with a tag team of anchors -- one in studio and on in the field. But Bob Woodruff's injuries quickly ended that. While Diane Sawyer and Charlie Gibson filled in for him for a few weeks, lately Elizabeth Vargas has been in the anchor chair on her own. And, according to reports, the much ballyhooed live West Coast edition has been quietly abandoned.

Then reports noted Couric would continue the Bob Schieffer tradition of one-on-one talks with the correspondents. Both NBC and ABC have been doing that too. On 4/17, Williams talked with White House corr. Kelly O'Donnell about possible staff changes there. And on the same night Vargas talked with National Security corr. Jonathan Karl about Rumsfeld. So when Couric starts her new job, instead of breaking new ground, she may find she just fits right in. [EMILY GOODIN]

The DSCC took in $6.9 million in March and has managed to bank $32.1 for the cycle, giving it a 2 to 1 advantage over its GOP counterpart.

To date, the DSCC has spent $24.6 million, including $2.2 million in March.

The NRSC raised $5,043,456 in March, for a total of $14.8 million during the first quarter. The cmte has $16.5 million on hand. For the cycle, it's raised $50.4 million.

The morning that the White House press secretary resigned, the news organization assigned to pool coverage for print reporters -- Copley -- apparently forgot to show up.

And moments after a tearful McClellan, with POTUS at his side, did announce his resignation, the president's helicopter, (known as Nighthawk to its pilots) had a malfunction.

The details after the jump, courtesy of a very regretful Copley reporter. (BTW: Joe Manchin is a DEMOCRAT.)

The developing Democratic take: Rove was "demoted" but not nearly far enough.

Dean: "After having his hand in nearly every bad Bush policy decision and nearly every scandal that has consumed the Bush White House, it is not surprising that Karl Rove was demoted this morning. But, a demotion is not enough. From the collapse of the President's scheme to privatize social security to Rove's involvement in the outing of a covert CIA agent's identity while he still holds a security clearance, the President has abundant reason to fire Karl Rove."

"The Bush White House is merely engaging in window dressing. President Bush doesn't seem to understand that you can't just change the window dressing, you have to make changes in the Bush Administration's policies which have undermined America's security -- from the economy to health care, our families and the war in Iraq."

Brenda Becker, currently a top legislative aide to VP Cheney, is said to be on the short list to move to the president's legislative team, taking a lead role with current leg. affairs dir. Candida Wolff.

Unclear at this writing: whether Wolff stays at leg. affairs or moves to another position in the White House.

If Bolten and Bush decide to add a former member of Congress to smooth relationships with Congress, that person will most likely not formally be designated as chief of leg. affairs but would be titled a "senior adviser" to the president. [MARC AMBINDER]

As first reported by CNN yesterday, Tony Snow has spoken with the WH about the job.

Other names mentioned:

Rob Nichols, currently the pres. of the Financal Services Forum? Insiders think his appointment is unlikely, although he does know Bolten.

Dan Bartlett It would obviously be a step down, but he is arguably the best on-camera communicator the Bush White House has... and he has a good relationship with most members of the press. He's also -- obviously -- very close to Bolten and Bush. He could do it for the rest of the year, groom a deputy in the meantime.

Victoria Clark -- She's close to Bolten, and, importantly, could assert herself as a peer to Rove and Bartlett. Would she take the job if her access to Bush and Bolten were guaranteed? Would the WH worry about her role as Pentagon spokeswoman during the Iraq war? Still, Clarke, asked a few weeks back about whether she'd take the job, replied: "You know, what did Sherman say? If nominated, won't run; if elected, will not serve. Not happening."

Dan Senor -- very well liked, but some in the president's circle believe that he enjoyed the spotlight a bit too much when he was Bremer's press guy. The Bush White House doesn't reward flash and sizzle, at least when manifested by aides to the president. His recent marriage to NBCer Campbell Brown is considered by some Republicans to be a "deal-breaker."

Brian Jones -- currently the RNC's comm. dir. Considered one of the best managers in the GOP comm. business. But he'll likely stay at the RNC. He also lacks on-camera experience.

Ron Bonjean -- current comm. dir to Denny Hastert; former comm. chief for Don Evans; has crisis experience, to boot. (He worked for Trent Lott during the relevant period of Mr. Lott's career.) Smart and talented and well-liked by the press. However, he is also not likely to leave his current job. [MARC AMBINDER]

With Pres. Bush at his side, WH Press. Sec. Scott McClellan resigned this morning. A replacement will be announced soon.

New WH CoS Josh Bolton has asked DCoS Karl Rove to give up his policy planning portfolio. Rove will retain the title of deputy chief of staff and continue to serve as the president's chief political and strategic adviser.

Joel Kaplan, Bolton's OMB deputy, will replace rove as Pres. Bush's policy coordinator.

The "Veronica Mars" mystery remains unsolved as cable tries to figure out whether Rumsfeld will stay or go.

"Special Report" led with Pres. Bush's support for Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld at yesterday's presser. FNC's Cameron: "Officials say they are mindful of the criticism, even accustomed to it as part of the public's dissatisfaction with progress in Iraq. But the solution they say is not changing the current civilian leadership of the military. It is solving the situation in Iraq and that that ultimately will mean completing the mission" (FNC, 4/18).

CNN's McIntyre: "Rumsfeld, armed with that fresh endorsement from his boss, President Bush, confidently engaged the Pentagon press corps" ("Situation Room," 4/18).

MSNBC's Olbermann calls it "offense from defense" ("Countdown," 4/18).

"Hardball" hosted family members of people who died in Iraq.

And "LKL" hosted Jane Fonda who said: "Those of us who follow the war closely, which I do, agree with the generals." She also said she didn't like to talk about Iraq because: "I don't want to give the right wing media and the right wing warmongers an ability to distract from the basic issue, which is that most Americans are opposed to the war and want to bring the troops home" (CNN, 4/18).

OH BABY!

And cable noted the birth of the Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes baby.

"This is one of the biggest moments right now for entertainment" -- CNN's Sibila Vargas ("PZ Now," 4/18).

"Tom Kitten named Suri, rhymes with furry" -- MSNBC's Joe Scarborough ("Scarborough Country," 4/18).

"If you Google that name the first thing that pops up is a site for Suri alpacas, a kind of llama" -- MSNBC's Keith Olbermann ("Countdown," 4/18).

"We'll be watching this kid" -- CNN's Wolf Blitzer ("Situation Room," 4/18). [EMILY GOODIN]

This is interesting.

The Democratic governor of Tennessee, Phil Bredesen, is trying to sell his health care plan for TN by comparing his "business-friendly" solution to MA Gov. Mitt Romney's "mandated" plan"

We've got numbers for all the major SEN races.

That's so you don't have to trudge down to the Sec/Sen or the FEC yourself. (And we're saving you bucks -- HRC's is more than 3000 pages long!)

The preceeding data came from FEC filings for the twelve month period ending 3/31/06. Incumbents are in CAPS. The column "Total Receipts" (Line 16 on FEC form 3) includes all donations, transfers, cmte money, loans/contributions made by the candidate, and interest earned on the account. The "Individual Contributions" column reflects FEC line 11(a-iii), which only includes money raised from individuals other than the candidate. "PACs" (FEC line 11c) may include money transferred from other candidates' cmtes. [QUINN MCCORD]

Ralph Reed's GA LG camp announced that ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will headline a fundraiser 5/18 (release).

Ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez's failed primary challenge to Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX 28) last month was primarily fueled with money from liberal bloggers. They may be surprised that, according to FEC reports, he still has $330K in the bank -- money he apparently never spent on his campaign.

In fact, he saved more money in the final month than he spent ($282K).

In contrast, Cuellar spent all his finances for an outright victory, leaving him with only $7K cash on hand.

How could such a highly-touted candidate, who had support from over a dozen members of Congress, make such an apparent blunder? Perhaps he wanted to save significant sums of cash for a potential runoff. But challengers can’t afford to play it cautious, and even if he pursued that strategy, he still could have spent more without going bankrupt.

(For a contrast, look at the Dem strategy in CA 50, where Francine Busby went for broke in the primary and now faces financial hurdles for the runoff against Rep. Brian Bilbray.)

For their part, former Rodriguez staffers said they believe the campaign misfiled the FEC report. We'll see, but either way, bloggers may want to double-check how -- and if -- their money's being spent before opening up their wallets. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Beyond The News, a website designed by Republican web pioneer Chuck DeFeo to serve as the home for conservative activism on the web, -- is no more.

Sort of. Salem Communications, whuch employed DeFeo to create the site, found a new platform. The company purchased Townhall.com, and over the next few months, DeFeo plans to turn Townhall into his one-stop-shop for conservative news, opinion and commentary.

Salem already claims some of the hottest properties in the social conservative universe, including talker/law prof/blogger Hugh Hewitt, moralitician Dennis Prager, Michael Medved Southern Baptist Convention pres. Richard Land and Southern Baptist Theological Seminary pres. Al Mohler.

It's unclear if those personalities will anchor the new Townhall site. (which unveiled a redesigned gateway and motto only last year, having broken off from its Heritage, ah, foundation founding.) Townhall already hosts columns by just about every major conservative writing about politics and culture.

In other conservative website news, we hear that Newt Gingrich has agreed to write a weekly news and opinion column for Eagle Publishing's HumanEventsOnline, edited by Robert Bluey.

That means Eagle will be the web's home for three major stars in the conservative constellation: Newt (who'll keep his Newt.org website), Ann Coulter (whose columns appear in Human Events) and Bob Novak, who now sends out a weekly version of political report, free. [MARC AMBINDER]

From Chris Cillizza, an example of smart, hardball politics that Republicans relish and Democrats generally are too cautious to try.

The NRCC is up with an ad in Ohio's 6th congressional district attacking Democrat Bob Carr as "too liberal" for the district. But Carr is a virtual unknown. His chances of winning the Dem nomination -- much less the seat -- aren't great. So why is the NRCC spending money to attack him?

Obviously -- they want him to do well. They want to raise his name identification among liberal voters in the district. They want the local media and the blogs to repeat, ad nauseum, that the NRCC thinks Carr is too liberal for the district. They want Carr's campaign to feel as if they NRCC has legitimized their effort. And they want Dem voters, when they show up on May 2 to choose their Dem nominee, to vote for him.

That's because they fear Charlie Wilson (D), a state sen. whose district covers about 35 percent of the 6th. Wilson blundered and didn't get his name on the ballot, so Dem voters will have to write him in. The more Democrats know (and potentially like) Carr, the fewer will be inclined to write in Mr. Wilson.

As Cillizza notes,

What's so devilish (and potentially effective) about the ad? Republicans are trying to knock off the Democrats' strongest candidate -- Wilson. They are betting that Democratic primary voters, most of whom have never heard of Carr before seeing the commercials, will be motivated to back him because of the NRCC ads. After all, being described as a liberal by a national Republican organizations is a badge of honor to many progressives, and calling for an elimination of the Bush tax cuts is a long-held position among liberal Democrats -- a group that's likely to be over represented in the primary electorate.

Republicans love this tactic, and there's anecdotal evidence it works. (Cillizza recounts the example of Rep. Michael Forbes, a Republican-turned-Democrat who the NRCC "helped" in his 2000 Dem primary against an 71-year-old librarian. Dem voters were turned off by Forbes's conservative record, helpfully promoted by the NRCC. And the GOP's Felix Grucci picked up the seat. (Until Grucci was ousted in '02, but that's another story.)

Smart Dems do it too. A different variant of the strategy was employed in 2002 by ex-CA Gov. Gray Davis (D), who spent millions to attack moderate Richard Riordan (D) in the GOP primary so he'd face an easier opponent in the general. It worked. [MARC AMBINDER]

Today we're spotlighting new 1stQ fundraising numbers for open-seat races. Some highlights:

-- Elwyn Tinklenberg (D), who led fundraising last quarter, raised the least ($65K) among major-party contenders in MN 06. '04 nominee Patty Wetterling's (D) entrance is partly to blame for drying up his coffers. She raised $220K this quarter and now leads him with $168K CoH.

-- GOPers got to a slow start fundraising in AZ 08. Ex-state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) and TV anchor Patty Weiss (D) both outdistanced the leading GOPer, ex-AZ GOP Chair Mike Hellon.

-- Lots of money is pouring into VT this cycle. State Sen. Peter Welch (D) banked $262K and now has the Dems' third-highest CoH among open seat candidates. Adj Gen Martha Rainville (R) raised $233K, but almost half of it ($112K) came from PACs.

-- One of the more surprising figures this cycle comes from MD 03, where physician Gary Applebaum (R) raised about $135K without contributing any of his own money. The CD voted for Ehrlich in '02. Could Applebaum be a sleeper to watch? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

In his first personnel decision as WH CoS, Josh Bolten filled his own previous job.

USTR Amb/ex-Rep/Bush 41 cong. liaison Rob Portman will take over at OMB.

The commentariot will probably be universal in their approval of the appointment.

Portman has several advantages. The OMB dir. deals with Congress more than just about any WH official. He gets along with just about everyone there. He's closer to Bush than even Sen. John Cornyn. And he talks to the media (on background), so the national political press corps likes him.

Who needs "24" when you have the cable news networks?

With Chris Matthews in New Orleans to host the the mayoral debate, "Hardball" focused on the city's recovery efforts along with some discussion on Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld.

Ex-FEMA dir. Michael Brown was a guest and asked if Mayor Ray Nagin should be re-elected: "Probably not. I mean, I think the mayor, you know, kind of showed the lack of leadership that kind of was exacerbated throughout the entire area. ... I don't live in New Orleans, but it seems to me it's time for some fresh blood and some fresh thinking down there" (MSNBC, 4/17).

Possible WH staff changes from new CoS Josh Bolten was another TV topic. FNC's Cameron noted: "Aides say repeatedly the policies, the principles don't change. The personnel might that could improve their advocacy, the way they talk to the public and Congress, but the course stays set by the president. And they're not changing it" ("Special Report," 4/17).

CNN's Malveaux: "Bolten said, in the weeks ahead, he will be making personnel changes to refresh and re-energize the president's team, using his first seven to 10 days on the job to evaluate how to improve White House operations. Some Republican strategists and Bush administration officials say, Bolten is specifically focusing on White House communications and legislative affairs" ("AC 360," 4/17).

AND FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

"I need professional help" -- CNN's Wolf Blitzer, on his taxes ("Situation Room," 4/17).

Ex-Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK) was on "Hannity & Colmes" to discuss his WH run. Asked about a possible world gov't: "Not right now. We're not mature enough to handle something like that" (FNC, 4/17).

Keith Olbermann talked '06 politics, posing the often-wondered question: "Which is stronger, do you think, the entrenchment of Republicans and Democrats in so many of the congressional districts, the built-in protection of the incumbents thing, or the throw-the-rascals-out index 2006?" (MSNBC, 4/17).

Bill O'Reilly solved the Iran problem in his "Talking Points" memo: "So here's my plan. There should be a summit among the industrialized nations in Geneva. Each nation would submit a plan to deal with Iran and those plans should be made public. Then everybody can see which nations want control in this world and which nations want chaos."

Newt Gingrich was a guest and offered: "I would go through your Geneva Summit" (FNC, 4/17).

Lou Dobbs had this report: "Illegal aliens and their supporters are trying once again to stop me from speaking the truth about this nation's illegal alien crisis and our absolute lack of border and port security. They want me to be fired by CNN."

CNN's Wian investigated the story and, not surprisingly, found: "It's another distortion and something we hear from the pro-amnesty side all the time" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 4/17).

The seven major New Orleans mayoral candidates will face off in debate tonight at 9 pm on MSNBC. Moderated by Chris Matthews and WDSU anchor Norman Robinson, it will focus on the rebuilding of this distressed city. But Matthews loves a good horse race, and with only six days until the 4/22 primary, there will be considerable political jockeying in this final stretch of campaigning.

Despite an onslaught from 22 challengers, Mayor Ray Nagin (D) appears to be solidifying his place in the 5/20 runoff. Voters are anxious about the prospect of electing a new mayor in the midst of a crisis and the mayor continually warns against hiring a candidate that needs "On the job training." He is also the only major African-American candidate in the race, and in a city dominated by racial politics, it is very unlikely that the runoff will not feature a black candidate.

With Nagin's spot in the runoff increasingly likely, his two top opponents Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (D) and Audubon Chief Executive Ron Forman (D) are turning their guns on each other. Forman unleashed the first shot in a volley of negative attack ads last week. And Landrieu responded accordingly, speaking directly to Forman's accusations in a response ad.

It's likely that both camps will remain focused on each other tonight and heading into the final days of the primary. Going after Nagin's frontrunner status may be a fool's errand. Political analysts have also suggested that taking shots at the mayor will send the wrong message -- a negative message -- to the black community. And in one more interesting twist, Forman's wife Sally Forman, worked for Nagin at city hall as his communications director.

Forman's camp should be well-equipped to go after Landrieu. Not only are they well financed, but one of his key strategists, GOP operative Bill Kearney managed LA '02 SEN candidate Suzie Haik Terrell (R) in her runoff against Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), sister of Mitch. The Forman camp will attack Landrieu on crime and taxes. Today his camp rolled out the endorsement of ex-New Orleans District Attorney Harry Connick Sr., a popular figure. (Yes -- he's the father of H.C. Jr.) They are also quick to point out that Landrieu has received poor scores from the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry.

For his part, Landrieu is a seasoned politician with a powerful machine. Today he secured the endorsement of three papers: New Orleans City Business, the alternative Gambit Weekly, and perhaps most importantly, Louisiana Weekly, the city's African-American paper. His ads attack Forman on being a poor steward of the taxpayers' dollars.

Both candidates need to be careful about losing votes to Virginia Boulet (D), an attorney, and Rob Couhig (R), a blunt-talking Republican. These two have taken a now-or-never approach and have offered bold proposals while the top candidates have been cautious. And it appears to be working.

While Boulet is soft-spoken and likable, Couhig never pulls his punches. Couhig, along with conservative City Councilwoman Peggy Wilson (R) and Rev. Tom Watson (D) will pepper the frontrunners with criticism tonight.

But the battle royal is between Landrieu and Forman. And with just a few days left, it's all-or-nothing for these two. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

Just in case there was any doubt that ex-NRCC chair/six-term Rep. Tom Davis was running for the next available open Senate seat in VA, his 1stQ FEC filing should clear things up. Looks like the Gentleman from Fairfax has been making the rounds far below the Beltway.

Early '06 donors to his House re-elect include a who's who among the "Main St" business establishment in Richmond that traditionally funds statewide campaigns. Such donors, most of whom ponied up a grand, are almost certainly investing early money in the business-friendly moderate.

Or maybe they just appreciate the Gov't Reform Committee chair's tireless effort to get more Nats' games televised.

Whatever the reason, Davis heads into his gimme of a House campaign with $1.78M in the bank after the 1stQ.

We hear... that RI SEN candidate Matt Brown (D), unable to shake the willies of a fundraising controversy, is shedding staff.

The departees include the campaign's finance director, Robert Pilon, comm. dir, Matt Burgess, and MacWilliams Robinson, the media strategist.

The Young Republican National Federation is the middle child of the Republican Party -- that is, they're halfway between College Republicans and the, well, Republican Republicans.

They're post-college aged... many are not out of their twenties, but most of the officers are over 30. They're the tail end of the "young voter" demographic and are correspondingly more secure in their identity as Republican activists.

These YRs, as they're called, are the second tier foot-soldiers. That is -- when the party mobilizes -- the YRs are usually a rung or two above the college kids and local volunteers; one rung below the Congressional aides who're dumped into the field as organizers around election day. Many are prominent consultants in their state. Most active YRs have at least several years worth of experience on campaigns.

They're gathering in DC this week for their leadership convention.

Perhaps fittingly, they highlight of the convo is a trip to the land where the 2nd amendment is imbibed, the NRA headquarters in Virginia. Also, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman will speak. The highlight of the convention, at least newswise, is a presidential straw poll.

The Romaniam Embassy is hosting an exclusive cocktail party on Wednesday night; Thursday is spent in Annapolis and includes a meeting with MD. Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The straw poll results are released late this weekend.

Somewhat depressingly for organizers, only 200 YRers will make it this year. The Federation is trying hard to restore its reputation as a force to be reckoned with -- by parties, candidates and campaign committees.

In the late 80s and early 90s, YRers were at the vanguard. But then came the Enid Green Waldholtz affair. Joseph Waldholtz was the group's treasurer when he met and married the dashing Enid Green. She was the YR's chair. She graduated to Congress; he turned out to be a crook. Her career ended; he went to jail.

The group fissured, with many conservatives leaving. In '01, the RNC cut 'em off -- giving them $100K but taking back their coveted seats on the national committee. (A sexual harassment scandal did the same for the College Republcians.)

Today, the YR is a 527. It's raised next to nothing over the past few years. Its new chairman is struggling to put the house in order. One strategy is to raise money from alums.

This year, uber-lobbyist/ex-YRer Terry Campo is hosting an alumni reception at the national convention. YRs hope to get buzz and momentum and regrow their membership. They're heartened that several state chapters are strong (NY, IN, IL NH, OH, FL and OR are examples). Also: the YRNF brags that it sent more lawyers to NY, VA and NJ in '05 (for poll watching) than did the Republican National Lawyers Association.

Their pitch to campaigns (and donors): we're skilled labor (versus the College Republicans, who are unskilled laborers.)

But confidence in the national federation is low, which explains, in part, why they couldn't attract more than 200 to the national convention.

Ex-IL Gov. George Ryan and lobbyist Larry Warner were found guilty today by an IL jury on all 22 counts of corruption-related charges.

According to PoliticalMoneyLine.com, ex-VP Al Gore spent $40K on polling this quarter, sending that amount to Penn, Schoen Berland on 3/22. (The firm currently polls for Sen. Hillary Clinton.)

The disbursement was recorded after the Gore/Lieberman GELAC transferred $40K to Gore's '00 presidential committee. So is Gore polling? For '08? For his new global warming movie?

No...

A Gore adviser says the disbursement is related to an '00 campaign committment.

Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA)'s Heartland PAC (nonfederal) received $400,600 in the first three months of the year for a total of more than $2M since it was established in '05.

Sen. Evan Bayh's campaign account, fully transferrable to a presidential, raised approx. $469K to bring its cash on hand total to 9.826M. His All America PAC raised $420.3K, spent about $280K and ended the quarter with 967K on hand.

And ex-Sen. John Edwards's One America Committee PAC raised $286K, spent $302K and ended the cycle with a smidgen over $7K on hand and debts of $108K.

Why the debt? Says an Edwards aide: "This quarter we were focused on raising money for the student trip to New Orleans to help with Katrina clean-up."

Edwards has raised more than $5.5M for Dem candidates and parties this cycle, according to the aide. Edwards, instead of contributing PAC money to '06 candidates, uses the PAC to pay for his expenses to help them raise money.

Illinois awaits...

What if Time's Joe Klein dumped three decades of his reporters' notebooks into a book?

The result is "Politics Lost," which Hotline editor-in-chief Chuck Todd reviewed for Washington Monthly.

It's a hell of a read, full of juicy consultant bashing trivia, personal disclosures and wonderfully creative adjectival descriptions of Teresa Heinz Kerry.

Writes Todd; "In part, Klein's book is an attempt to explain to candidates how to tell good consultant advice from bad. In fact, Klein probably hopes this book becomes necessary reading for any future presidential candidate. (Klein holds up Reagan and Clinton as examples of candidates who properly used consultants, and Gore, the first President Bush, and, most egregiously, John Kerry, as examples of ones who didn't.) But many of the examples cited in the book are of bad candidates who took bad consultant advice which, in turn, made them even worse candidates. The truth is, not all consultants are bad. In fact, I'd argue bad candidates are apt to seek out bad advice even from a good consultant."

"At the end of the day, no matter how powerful consultants might become, they are people for hire. What Klein leaves unsaid is that some candidates might just be too weak or insecure to shun a consultant's advice. Sure, consultants can be lousy, and Klein's take on Shrum is particularly devastating. But John Kerry was hardly an ideal candidate, and he made plenty of bad choices without Shrum's help."

"Klein doesn't offer solutions to the problems he cites, but he does seem to think voters would prefer a presidential candidate who won't listen to them too closely -- who won't pore over polls or focus-group results. That idea is about as naive as they come, but that's part of what I liked about the book. It's good-natured, too. While Klein may be upset, he didn't write an angry tome. In fact, he even likes many of the consultants he's criticizing. He just thinks they're ruining the scene. Skeptics might not be persuaded, but Klein makes sure they'll at least be thoroughly entertained. "

Donna Shalala, the ex-Clinton HHS sec/U Miami president, will be heckled today by SEIU-backed protestors as she appears as a health care forum in Washington, D.C.

Ex-Sen. John Breaux (D-LA) is hosting Shalala and others at the Willard Hotel in DC this morning for one of his "Ceasefire on Health Care" events. Ex-HHS sec. Tommy Thompson (R), who is mulling a Gov/Senate/Presidentail run, will also participate.

The SEIU objects to Shalala's refusal to endorse a card-check union election for striking contract janitors at U Miami. Several janitors on a hunger strike have been hospitalized.

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner continued his torrid fundraising pace this quarter, netting nearly $1.9 million for his Forward Together PAC.

It spent a bit more than $1 million. He has $3.2 million on hand. The largest share of the PAC's expenditures went to pay for about 15 staffers, making the PAC one of the largest, staff-wise, of the '08ers.

According to Political Money Line.com, Warner recieved the lion's share of his money from attorneys, investment bankers and company executives.

Notable donors include ex-Seagram Co/major Jewish philanthropist Edgar Bronfman Sr., who have $5000L, ex-Sec/Ag./current MPAA honcho Dan Glickman, Food Network chef Rachael Ray, TV producer Marcy Carsey, Hard Rock Cafe Chairman Peter Morton, Public Strategies consultant Jack Martin and Dem speech consultant Michael Sheehan.

After Iowa: Michigan?

Michigan Democrats, seeking to strengthen their sway in choosing te party's 2008 presidential nominee, asked the Democratic National Committee today to let them hold a caucus during the heretofore forbidden period when Iowa and New Hampshire hold their first-in-the-nation contests.

On the eve of the party's spring meeting in New Orleans, Michigan submitted their proposal to the party's rules and bylaws committee, which is tasked with recommending a formal nominating calendar.

A party commission, over the vociferous objection of New Hampshire, said the DNC should add at least two caucuses in the weeks before states are officially allowed to hold their delegate selection contests. At least one caucus could potentially be scheduled after Iowa and before New Hampshire.

Mark Brewer, the MI Dem chair, said in a statement today that :No state fits all the criteria to be a new pre-window state better than Michigan. A racially and ethnically diverse state, Michigan will also bring much-needed regional, geographic and economic diversity, including union density, to the pre-window period."

He continued: "Michigan's loyal Democratic voters, who have carried this state 4 times in a row for the Democratic Presidential candidate, deserve an early voice in the nominating process."

The application makes reference to the party's '04 Internet primary, which --beset by complaints from civil rights leaders that it disenfranchised blacks -- was not universally seen as a success.

The applications for the pre-window period were due today. Other states submitting them were Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi, Nevada and South Carolina. Several of the Western applicants will probably agree to a regional primary in early February.

Michigan's Democratic leaders, including Sen. Carl Levin, have long wanted to roll back the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire on the Democratic presidential nominee selection process. It was at their urging that then DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe empaneled a primary calendar commission in 2005. Michigan had threatened to schedule its primary on the same day as New Hampshire's.

According to several members of the national committee and the commission, Michigan delegates insisted that they did not intend for the process to endorse any particular state to supplant Iowa or NH.

Reacting today on her way to New Orleans, New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Kathy Sullivan would only say: "I thought this wasn't supposed to be about Michigan?"

The Michigan Democratic application was transmitted to the DNC on the same day as both Republican and Democratic parties in the state announced an agreement to hold a joint primary on February 5. That agreement does allow for the Democrats to opt out if they are selected as one of the early caucus states.

The Rules and Bylaws Committee will by the fall recommend a specific calendar for approval by the full Democratic National Committee.

The process has already shifted the calendar. States as diverse as Arkansas, New Jersey, Alabama Utah, and Minnesota are all in the process of cementing February delegate selection dates. And the placement of one state could influence another.

South Carolina's two major parties do not want Michigan to hold its caucuses one the same day as their primary and have threatened, per the New Hampshire Union Leader, to move the date should Michigan carry out the bipartisan agreement.

National Journal's Murray Waas is reporting that VP Cheney "directed" Scooter Libby on 7/12/03 "to leak to the media portions of a then-highly classified CIA report that Cheney hoped would undermine the credibility" of Joe Wilson, "according to Libby's grand jury testimony in the CIA leak case and sources who have read the classified report. ... Both Libby and Cheney have repeatedly insisted that the vice president never encouraged, directed, or authorized Libby to disclose Plame's identity."

This week, HotlineTV gets religion.

We've got the Buzz on Busby and a look at House races you may have overlooked, the four questions posed at HotlineTV's seder, some politicians who could be resurrected (and the Bush admin's path to rising again), plus the fastest 2 minutes in politics.

Visit HotlineTV.net for a complete show list, to sign up for email alerts or to email your question to Chuck Todd and John Mercurio.

HotlineTV: Wisdom Before It's Conventional.

First -- we've learned a bit more about the Evans-Novak Political Forum. Another confirmed speaker: Commerce Sec. Carlos Gutierrez. And the $495-a-pop event is all sold out.

Second -- and more interesting to us, at least -- is this piece on Human Events Online by Matt Lewis. Lewis is a young conservative consultant who was mentored by Morton Blackwell; We're told that Blackwell considers Lewis one of his proteges.

Lewis, thinks that whereas Sen. John McCain has run a fairly "flawless" pre-primary campaign to date, AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, in failing to organize for the Southern Republican Leadership Conference and in "doing his best to alienate fiscal conservatives," has stumbled, perhaps even fatally.

Traditionally, there has been room in presidential campaigns for a movement conservative candidate to carve out a nice niche in the primaries (think Pat Robertson or Alan Keyes). Many thought Huckabee would fill this void. Let's be honest, this position is usually less about winning than it is about building a national organization, making contacts, and helping make sure the Republican frontrunner stays conservative.

But Huckabee's recent missteps -- coupled with Sam Brownback's immigration position -- have conspired to leave this position vacant.

We give weight to Lewis's opinion because of his pedigree and his role in 'the movement.'

BTW: here's a presidential/vice presidential pairing to chew on: McCain/Brownback.

Both depart from the settled political conservative orthodoxy at points, and they are temperamentally different. But both have an affirmative, rather broad, view of conservative governance. Brownback and McCain are natural allies on immigration; both are concerned about global warming (though McCain is far more active on this issue); both support democracy promotion abroad (though differ in tone and focus.) Brownback is as close to moral conservative gatekeepers (both Protestant and Catholic) as one can be.

Discuss...

Some interesting, eh, oppo on former Sen. Mike Gravel.

The battle between cable and broadcast media for ad buys is not a new fight, but so rarely do we get a play by play of the blows. Media junkies everywhere can now breathe a sigh of relief -- the wait is finally over. New Politics Institute (NPI), a Dem think tank for politics, threw down the gauntlet 11/05 when it distributed its report, "Fundamental Shifts in the U.S. Media and Advertising Industries," to a broad coalition within the Democratic community.

Among its key findings, NPI reports that "the media is shifting from traditional outlets to new, more targeted channels." More specifically, in the TV industry, viewership is shifting "from broadcast to targeted cable" and advertisers are "increasingly seeking more targeted opportunities to reach" TV viewers. NPI followed up the report with a fifteen-point strategic checklist, a less extensive "companion" to the report, for "those looking to stay on top of" media trends 2/9. The memo's "core message" to its readers: "if you are buying your advertising as you have in the past you are likely spending ineffectively, paying too much for too little impact."

Did anyone really think such a knock would go unnoticed? In response, the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) sent a memo 3/9 calling NPI's section on TV, "more than just wrong, it is misleading, in some cases arriving at conclusions that are 180 degrees from the truth!"

TVB's VP of Marketing Jack Poor, who authored the memo, says he was "made aware" of the report by "some political buyers." NPI "was trying to educate their constituencies" about the rise of new media and its efforts were "misguided, but well meaning." Poor: "It was an aggressive attempt to get to the party, but it went over the line." He believes the data was "packaged as a cable pitch" because local cable "wants to ride the coattails and attach itself to the new media -- become part of the buzz."[KATHERINE LEHR]

You can catch Hotline references in "Commander-in-Chief," or you can catch the commander-in-chief in the Hotline.

RUMBLING WITH RUMSFELD

Most of the talk on CNN was the calls for Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld's resignation.

CNN's Malveaux appeared on most of the primetime shows last night to report: "Scott McClellan, the White House press secretary, saying that the president has full confidence in Secretary Rumsfeld, that the president is very much aware of these retired generals' calls for Rumsfeld to step down. There is no intention to talk to those individuals, but Scott McClellan did make a distinction between those who served with Rumsfeld now and those who of course are out of service from the Pentagon" ("Situation Room," 4/3).

The "Special Report" roundtable also discussed Rumsfeld. And it was the fourth story on "Countdown."

THE MEN IN THE BIG CHAIRS

DNC Chair Howard Dean was in the "Situation Room." He talked about the controversy surrounding the Iraq war: "Either the president deliberately misled the nation and sent our troops to war anyway, or people from the administration withheld that information from the president of the United States. That goes to the heart of two issues of this next election is going to be about. One is the qualifications and competency of this president. And the other is the honest and trustworthiness, honesty and trustworthiness of this president" (CNN, 4/13).

RNC Chair Ken Mehlman was on after Dean: "Presidents make that decision on the basis of, one, what the public should know, and, two, on the basis of not compromising sources and methods. So, rather than being out there with a charge that is irresponsible and that shows his own hypocrisy, which Chairman Dean has done, I think it would be better for folks to stop and say, you know what? We're not going to try to spin everything. And we're not trying to win every news cycle" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/13).

BIDEN GIVES HARD TALK ON "HARDBALL"

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) played "Hardball." Most of the talk was foreign policy. Biden was asked if Pres. Bush had the authority to attack Iran: "No, not without congressional support -- authorization, I should say" (MSNBC, 4/13).

HARRIS GOES BUMP IN THE NIGHT

Also, Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) sent out an e-mail yesterday saying she'd be on "Special Report" last night. She wasn't a guest, but featured in a package by FNC's Brown. Harris said in the piece: "Clearly, nationally, we're having a few hiccups, some bumps in the road, but we'll get there" (4/13).

Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) asked members of his Heartland PAC community to come up with ten words that defined what the Democratic Party stood for. Stands for. Believes in. Message. Etc.

5,000 submissions were considered.

Today, the PAC announced the 10 finalists and their words. (Vote for your favorite, here.)

We're not going to comment on them, except to say that we're very glad not a single one of them incorporated a Shrumian "fighting for" formulation.

The finalists:

"The Democratic Party: People are our only 'Special Interest.' "
Stacy, Iverness, FL

"Effective, honest government, serving the needs of all its citizens."
Matt, O Fallon, MO

"Working for millions of people, not millions of dollars."
Matt, Santa Monica, CA

"A Strong Nation and Economy through Fairness, Reason, and Community."
Drew, Blairsburg, IA

"Government led by people who believe good government is possible."
Cathy, Columbus, OH

"Equal opportunities, better lives, and honest government for all Americans."
Rob, Decorah, IA

"The Democratic Party- Tackling problems and finding practical solutions."
Don, Letts, IA

"Leadership that will restore the American Dream to all Americans."
Bill, Stewartstown, PA

"Common sense for the common good."
Jason, Chicago, IL, Brenda, Wakefield, RI, and Robert, Timonium, MD

"The Democrats highest ideal: Help people achieve their full potential."
Gary, Tulsa OK

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's re-election committee raised $6 million through the first three months of the year, ending the reporting period with $19.7 million in the bank.

The campaign said that 15,373 of the contributors were new, and 95 percent of the 49K who gave money did so with checks of $100 or less.

Reports are due to the FEC by 4/16.

As the primary races begin to take shape, they send ripples through the rankings for the most competitive gubernatorial seats.

One GOP challenger's primary withdrawal sent Wisconsin's Democratic incumbent up a notch, while Michigan's primary stalemate pushed that race down. New York and Ohio remain stuck in the first two spots, but Iowa and Wisconsin flip-flopped for the No. 3 and 4 spots, respectively.

Check out the full rankings and let us know what you think.

If you've read Human Events or the American Spectator, you've seen the glossy ads promoting the Evans-Novak Political Forum -- Novak's private briefing with some of the nation's top political, business and military leaders. The guest list and location and date are generally closely held.

This year's invitation stresses that all conversations are "off the record" and "no recording devices are allowed."

Fair enough.

This year's forum takes place on April 27 from 7;30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Confirmed guests include Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH).

In the interest of being good neighbors, we'll not specify the precise location. But if you see McCain ambling up the steps of a tony and impenetrable Washington, D.C. club on 4/27 -- you're at the right place. [MARC AMBINDER]

While new polls reinforce their hopes for a congressional sweep in the midterms this fall, Democrats, writes John Mercurio, are starting to lose their grip on the campaign issue that fueled their early surge last year: ethics.

Indeed, recent developments in four key races are worrying party leaders as they try to nationalize their "culture of corruption" line against Republicans. From West Virginia to Louisiana to Montana to California, it appears, the debate over ethics could cut both ways. In this week's
Politiscope

If you want model behavior, you're better off with cable, not UPN.

There was no dominant topic on TV last night. Among the issues discussed: immigration, the Flight 93 tapes, Pres. Bush's approval ratings, and the situation with Iran.

TWO NETS AGREE AND THE WORLD PAUSES TO TAKE NOTICE

Both FNC and CNN reported on the WH's fury with the Washington Post and ABC News, over their reports questioning Bush's credibility on Iraq.

FNC's Cameron: "The White House blasted the Washington Post and ABC News for suggesting that the administration knew they were not weapons labs, but said so anyway" ("Special Report," 4/12).

CNN's Malveaux: "The White House is really taking issue with this report, calling it irresponsible and reckless from the Washington Post, as well as ABC News, any suggestion that the president knew that the bad intelligence that he was putting forward was leading our country to war" ("Situation Room," 4/12).

Washington Post's Warrick responded to the WH criticism: "It's a misinterpretation of the story and what
we're trying to say. We don't ever say in the piece that President Bush ... knowingly misled the public about these trailers. What we do say is that by the time he spoke, very early on -- after the invasion of Iraq -- there was solid evidence, really authoritative reporting, about these trailers that showed them not to be weapons labs. It was in the hands of the Pentagon, and yet it didn't seem to raise a red flag. If it was communicated to the White House, or to anyone else in the political realm, there's no evidence of that from their statements" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/12).

'08ers STOP BY

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) talked about his health care plan on "Hardball." Romney: "It will work for Massachusetts, and that's of course the thing that I had to focus on. There are certain aspects of it that I think would work across the country, perhaps better in some states than others. Of course the great thing about federalism is you let a state try it and see how it works before you spread it out" (MSNBC, 4/12).

Newt Gingrich was on "Hannity & Colmes," where he was asked about his statements on Iraq. FNC's Colmes: "Yesterday you said we have to pull back; we have to recognize it. Very much like what John Kerry said last week. He came up with certain dates but he actually came up with a plan about pulling back, just like you suggested."

Gingrich: "I actually am the opposite of John Kerry. All I want to do is exactly what General Abizaid is doing, which is maximize the rate of training of Iraqi forces and minimize the direct exposure of Americans in trying to police the country. I am not for any precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, and I think Senator Kerry was advocating a policy of absolute defeat when he suggested he would set a date, which I think he said could be as early as May" (FNC, 4/12).

BROWNIE'S BACK

Ex-FEMA dir. Michael Brown was in the "Situation Room." On his new job: "It's not a job I sought. They came after me and I'm willing to provide them whatever advice they want." More: "I can help them understand what exactly it is that FEMA is looking for when it comes to documentation. I can explain to them what they are doing in terms of their procurement process. What they are trying to do to get the debris removed. The ways that they might be able to do that, within the confines of the law, what meets the law, that yet expedites it and makes it occur quicker" (CNN, 4/12). [EMILY GOODIN]

Justin Rood at TPMMuckraker doesn't quite agree with our assumption that the RNC paid the legal bills of James Tobin out of loyalty ... (Tobin was BC04 regional chair when his involvement in the '02 phone-jamming was first alleged.)

Here's some context:

In '02, as NE regional pol. dir. for the NRSC, Tobin was privy to the Republican National Committee's trade secrets. Because GOTV and persuasion programs almost always involve both motivating your own side and more subtly, trying to tamp down your opponent's turnout, tactics can get nasty. Legal -- but nasty. (Why did the NRCC run last-minute TV ads in CA 50 questioning Francine Busby's ethics? Almost surely to dampen her support among marginals and independents.)

For the moment, let's assume -- and based on the available evidence at the moment it's a reasonably safe assumption -- that the RNC knew nothing about the phone jamming plan.

That doesn't mean the RNC was or would be eager to surrender to the world their internal GOTV planning documents -- which is precisely what Tobin's lawyers (funded by the RNC) found themselves fighting about in court.

As we've followed the story over the years, we've talked to several Republican officials and party insiders who believe that the RNC and Tobin's friends in the White House accepted his explanation(s) without applying the requisite skepticism. That's a human reaction, certainly.

But Rood's broader point is worth considering. By paying for Tobin's defense, the RNC opened itself up (even further) to legitimate questions about who knew what and when. [MARC AMBINDER]

CALIFORNIA 50 (SPECIAL)   100% reporting

Francine BUSBY (D)                43.9       56147 
Brian BILBRAY (R)                 15.1       19366
Eric ROACH (R)                    14.5       18486 

A small sign that incoming WH CoS Josh Bolten is preparing to salt the middle register of White House staffers with loyalists?

Alex Conant, a trusted press aide to Bolten at the Office of Management and Budget, started work today as the Midwest regional spokesman for the WH's Office of Media Affairs.

Before joining OMB, the politically savvy Conant worked for Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and has good pre-existing relationships with political and government reporters throughout the Midwest. (And he'll leverage them: the region includes most of the top SEN '06 races and many GOV races too.) Conant worked for ex-Rep. George Nethercutt's '04 WA SEN bid, too.

BTW: A sad WH pool report crossed the wire last night: "At about 8:19 pm Eastern time, Andy Card popped into the press cabin. "My last flight on the plane, guys," he declared. Some in the press cabin applauded, others were awaken by the applause. Then Card said quietly, "It's really sad."

-- There are still 10K absentee and provisional ballots left to be counted in CA 50.

--Catching up on some DNC news: Maria Echeveste, a former Clinton administration dep. chief of staff who was one of Howard Dean's earliest primary supporters in '03 is now a critic; she's constituted a Democratic/Hispanic voting outreach program with no input from the DNC's staff, per the Hill. Also: The DNC, under fire from gay groups for consolidating their identity-specific outreach programs, has hired a young gay superstar, Corey Johnson, to be their chief GLBT fundraiser. Johnson, formerly pol. dir. for Mark Green, is famous in the gay community for being that football player-who-came-out-in-the-lockerroom.

-- Who do the netroots not want to win the Democratic presidential nomination? Sen. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, judging by some Chris Bowers numbers crunching.

--Jake Tapper's blogging break. The television reporter who was constructed by the diety for blogging wants a breather.

Washington Post's Dana Milbank was on "Countdown" to talk about the Tobin case. He was asked if it's "likely ever to touch" Pres. Bush: "It'll be tricky, because any evidence is circumstantial. ... It's very hard to make a case, unless there's recorded phone conversations or e-mails, that the White House had anything to do with the jamming."

MSNBC's Keith Olbermann asked: "Does this perhaps wind up, politically speaking, anyway, as being part of a cumulative effect here, a drip, drip, drip, or maybe a leak, leak, leak? Is the president on the verge of losing whatever chance remains to reclaim some of the final three years for his agenda?"

Milbank responded: "In terms of any domestic agenda, that's pretty well shot right now, barring some extraordinary victory for the Republicans in November. So this just compounds that. And, you know, we have the president still sitting there in the 30s. He can't get much done with or without Mr. Tobin's rapid dialing" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/11.)

Republicans have done it again; they've survived another day. Just when it seems a local disaster has the potential to turn into a national earthquake for the GOP, the party figures out how too delicately shift the landscape just enough to get by.

Democrat Francine Busby came within just a few thousand votes of garnering the necessary 50 percent to avoid a runoff. Had that happened, Democrats would have the spark they've been searching for to cement the idea that not only can they win control of Congress this year, but they will. Continue reading On The Trail. [CHUCK TODD]

For Dems in CA 50, Sue Burnside was charged with the absentee ballot program and she phoned us this morning with some estimates and details of how things worked in the absentee ballot program. The program included targeting permanent absentee ballot voters (approx. 23.5K Dems and 9.5K declined to state).

In addition, there was an extension door-to-door program looking for potential supporters and encouraging them to apply for a vote-by-mail ballot. Burnside noted that there was a big gender gap that favored Busby within this universe of voters.

When all the ballots are counted, Burnside expects Busby's absentee ballot program to generate a 70% return which, she notes is at least 15 points higher than the Republicans, combined, got from their absentee ballot program. Burnside also pointed out another big problem that many of us overlooked -- "Spring Break." The campaign did everything it could to "harass" these voters but they figure there are some supporters they lost simply because of family vacations.

Asked whether Busby's 44% (a number that could be 45% once all the ballots are counted) is a ceiling for the runoff (particularly since it nearly mirrors John Kerry's 2004 performance in the CD), Burnside disagreed. She acknowledges that this is a tough district but she emphasizes that we look closely at the precinct performances of Busby and check out the places where she breaks 50%. (Hint: it's the coastal precincts). While Burnside didn't explicitly say it, the implication was that a higher turnout will benefit Busby. Coastal voters are probably less intense voters right now and if the casual voter comes to the polls, that could be an added benefit to Busby in the June runoff (and even in the general in November).

We hear that one of the bigger disappointments for Dems is that, aside from Emily's List, some of the key players in the CA DEM infrastructure poo-poohed Busby's chances in conservative San Diego and therefore did little to help her.

Bottom line: Burnside wants to make sure we are aware that the absentee ballot program worked and it's what keeps Busby in the game for the runoff. We'll be watching. [CHUCK TODD]

You have your idols, we have cable. And with Congress on recess the nets are struggling to fill hours of air time. Most of shows featured packaged reports instead of interviews with guests.

Chris Matthews was in CA and continued to celebrate "Hardball"'s 9th anniversary with talk on Iraq and illegal immigration.

"Special Report" led with Iran's quest for a nuclear weapon. The roundtable discussed the Duke Univ. scandal and the French youth protests.

Bill O'Reilly offered this in his "Talking Points" memo: "The media is making a big deal out of a report that the Pentagon has been planning a military scenario, in case Iran will not stop its nuclear weapons program. Apparently, that has horrified some in the press. ... I mean, come on. If the Pentagon isn't studying military options against Iran, President Bush should be impeached. Iran presents a huge threat to America, does it not?" (FNC, 4/11).

"Countdown" had one of more politically oriented shows last night with Dana Milbank talking about the 2002 NH phone scandal, David Shuster talking about the Scooter Libby case, and Howard Fineman talking about Bush's approval ratings.

"AC 360" led with Iran while "Lou Dobbs Tonight" led with Bush's approval ratings. [EMILY GOODIN]

CALIFORNIA 50 (SPECIAL)   100% reporting

Francine BUSBY (D)                43.9       56147 
Brian BILBRAY (R)                 15.2       19366
Eric ROACH (R)                    14.5       18486 
Howard KALOOGIAN (R)              7.5         9525
Bill MORROW (R)                   5.4         6886
Alan UKE (R)                      4.0         5120
Richard EARNEST (R)               2.2         2751

A preview of Wednesday's Hotline:

Here's one thing we learned tonight: Democrats put up a good fight. But they aren't yet positioned to win 30 to 40 House seats. The wave isn't that big right now, or else they would have found another several thousand votes to win this CD. [CHUCK TODD]

DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel: "Francine Busby's dramatic win shows that Democratic, independent and Republican voters simply want change. In a Republican district, Busby showed that Democratic candidates for change can and will make status quo politics-as-usual Republicans fight for their political lives in every corner of this country."

Here's Richard Cohen's take: If Busby--like Paul Hackett in the OH-2 special last summer--finishes with 48% in June, that kind of "dramatic win" over "status-quo politics...in every corner of this country" doesn't add a single Dem seat in the House, nor does it appear to add much momentum (in terms of Dem recruiting or fundraising decisions, or GOP retirements) to the November campaign. Remember, in special elections in the spring of 1994, the GOP actually won the two long-time Democratic-held seats. Those were more than moral victories."

We'll have plenty of macro-analysis throughout the day Wednesday, but for now, here's a look ahead.

Francine Busby (D) faces a tough time in getting to 50 in June.

In turn, that suggests that Dems will run a negative campaign against Bilbray, assuming he is the nominee. In contrast to Roach, Bilbray has a record in the Gingrich/DeLay House....and the Dems (Rep. Susan Davis) defeated him in 2000. Watch for Dems to emulate her campaign.

National Journal's Richard Cohen notes that, according to the 2002 Almanac of American Politics, 1) Davis debunked the pro-choice and pro-environment Bilbray as a moderate: "He talks moderate in San Diego, but votes conservative in Washington." Plus, 2) Davis attcked Bilbray for anti-immigrant views in supporting bills to deny citizenship to children of illegal immigrants.

"Those talking points seem relevant," Cohen tells us, "and are likely to be raised by Busby in the next 8 weeks." (All this assumes that Roach exits the separate but concurrent primary race absent "extraordinary circumstances" and Kaloogian doesn't try to challenge Bilbray from the right, bowing to the inevitable state party pressure.)

Bilbray, by contrast, may well continue the NRCC's efforts to tar Busby with ethics questions. But we suspect he'll more familiarly try to paint Busby as too liberal for the district, in part by noting all the outside (liberal) help she received.

It's quite hard to predict what role immigration will play in this very disputatious, very scandal-weary, very-immigration-weary district.

According to a well placed CA Dem, Phil Angelides is bringing John Sasso on board for the remaining weeks of the GOV primary in an attempt to stop the slow freefall the one time frontrunner has experienced ever since Steve Westly started saturating the airwaves.

The Angelides campaign says Sasso won't play a formal role." Per a spokesperson: "John Sasso has been a friend of Phil Angelides' for over 20 years and they talk on a weekly basis but Sasso will not be moving to California nor moving into a campaign operation."

Sasso was brought in late during the 2004 prez campaign at a similar low point for John Kerry. Sasso did get stop Kerry's ship from completely sinking in the fall but still came up short. Can he save Angelides who doesn't have nearly the resources Kerry had during his various low points? [CHUCK TODD]

The 50th Congressional District of California covers much of this part of San Diego County. About 40% of its population is in the city of San Diego, including most of scenic La Jolla, hillside Clairemont, Carmel Valley and University City to the west and, north of Miramar, Mira Mesa, Rancho Penasquitos and part of Rancho Bernardo. About 25% are on or near the coast, from Del Mar, where a 1,000 foot pier was opened in 1917 but washed away in 1926, to Encinitas and Carlsbad, home of the La Costa resort. Just inland is affluent Rancho Santa Fe, with its multi-million dollar mansions set amid rolling hills and lush greenery. About 30% of the people are in Escondido and San Marcos. Politically, this is Republican territory, more so as one gets away from the coast; it voted 55% for George W. Bush in 2004.

Democrats call this news earth-shattering:

" ... records show that Republican campaign operative James Tobin, who recently was convicted in the case, made two dozen calls to the White House within a three-day period around Election Day 2002 as the jamming operation was finalized, carried out and then abruptly shut down."

This morning, DNC chairman Howard Dean wrote to his RNC counterpart, Ken Mehlman, who in '02 was the White House political director.

Wrote Dean:

"You have often spoken of the importance of making sure that every vote counts. In that spirit, we hope that you will take the necessary steps to clear up the lingering confusion surrounding the RNC and the White House's role in this scandal by answering these questions: James Tobin called the White House two dozen times in three days. Whom was he calling? With whom did he speak? Whom did he work with in the office of political affairs?"

RNC chairman Ken Mehlman released a statement late today: "As White House political director during the 2002 election cycle, my staff and I regularly communicated with competitive Congressional campaigns and Republican Party organizations. One of the most competitive was the Senate race in New Hampshire and throughout the election season and Election Day, Alicia Davis, my deputy responsible for the Northeast, frequently communicated with the New Hampshire State Party, the RNC and others. To be clear, none of my conversations nor the conversations of my staff, involved discussion of the phone-jamming incident. While I have profound policy disagreements with Chairman Dean, I have always tried to maintain what he and I discussed when we were first elected: keep it to the issues."

Up in NH, state Dems don't want a judge to remove the RNC from a long-standing civil suit against the NH GOP.

On behalf of the NH Dems, a Dem interest group, the Senate Majority Project, filed an affidavit with the judge today detailing their study of Tobin's phone records. That study formed the basis for the AP story.

What's really behind the story? Read on... [MARC AMBINDER]

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

It is the best of times for ... well, both parties. Dems have some great young candidates in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh while GOPers' up-and-comers are more spread out throughout the state. Most of our sources told us that, while there are many up-and-comers from Pittsburgh, it's becoming more and more difficult for those from the smaller media market to compete with better-known Philadelphia candidates. Then again, ask Sen. Rick Santorum (R), Treas. Bob Casey Jr. (D), ex-Gov. Tom Ridge (R) and ex-Sen. John Heinz (R) if being from Pittsburgh is a burden. We guess they'll say no. [REID WILSON]

Coming tonight and early tomorrow: real-time election results and analysis.

Francine Busby's (D) organizational and fundraising success has given her some momentum heading into tonight's CA 50 special election. But one factor out of her control could be a slight deterrent.

There are four special election ballots, one of each of the assembly districts in the CD. In each ballot -- all randomly chosen -- Francine Busby's name appears toward the bottom of the ballot, and below the other Democrat who's running (Chris Young).

Busby has raised her name ID quickly with much direct mail, and TV/radio advertisements district-wide. But could a small number of Dems simply vote for the first Democrat listed?

The leading GOP candidates (Bilbray, Roach, Kaloogian) are also all bunched together in the middle of the ballot. Among credible candidates, only state Sen. Bill Morrow (R) has favorable placement on the ballots (he's at the very top and bottom on two of them).

Everything will need to go Busby's way (low GOP turnout, successful targeting of potential Dem, disaffected voters) for her to hit 50%, avoiding a runoff. If she falls just short, could it be the ballot that prevented victory?

NEW ORLEANS, LA -- There are only two certainties in the New Orleans mayoral race: It is one of the weirdest, most unconventional races anyone has ever seen in American politics, and it will have historical consequences.

In less than two weeks, on April 22, New Orleans voters will choose one of 22 candidates in the primary election. The first and second place finishers will face off in a May 20 run-off election. Less than two weeks after the mayor is decided, on June 1, hurricane season will begin.

The three top frontrunners are Mayor Ray Nagin (D), of "chocolate city" and "get of your asses" fame, Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (D), brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and son of ex-Mayor Moon Landrieu, and Audubon Institute Chief Executive Ron Forman (D), who has built "world class" facilities for his institute but otherwise is a political novice. Until last weekend, the conventional wisdom held that Landrieu and Nagin would face in the run-off. But Forman won the endorsement of the New Orleans Times-Picayune 4/9, which locks the three in a dead heat.

Other major candidates include Ron Couhig (R), a blunt talking Republican, Virginia Boulet (D), an attorney, Rev. Tom Watson (D), the Al Sharpton candidate, and Peggy Wilson (R), an ultra-conservative who derides "welfare queens," calls for a "tax-free city," and supports vouchers.

Almost eight month after Hurricane Katrina, this city is in poor shape. From the French Quarter to Uptown to the Lower 9th Ward, services are sporadic and the city is in decay. Trash is piled up everywhere, and pick-up has been reduced to once a week. Mail is delivered infrequently. Across the city, and especially in the hardest hit areas, there are no stop lights, only make shift stop signs. All but 12 schools are closed. Many FEMA trailers have still not arrived. And the city is broke. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

Did you have two and a half men sitting in your living room instead of Bill O'Reilly? Well, never fear, we TiVO'd it all.

Immigration was the talk of the tube last night with the nets featuring reports from rallies around the country. And the WH '08ers who made this their issue got some TV time.

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) stopped by "AC 360": "Politically, if you look at most Democrats, there's strong support for border security, plus a legalization plan. It's the Republican side that I think is really in trouble, because you have got the president I believe, taking a correct position. ... But you have got most of his party wanting to pass a House bill that I believe is unworkable, that creates a wall, that has felons out of the 11 million" (CNN, 4/10).

And Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) was on "Hardball": "We should not be frightened by these massive demonstrations, the millions of the people who are out there and demonstrating, of course, aren't here legally. Don't be afraid America. Do what's right. Live by the rule of law. Don't live by the rule of the mob in the street" (MSNBC, 4/10).

IT'S BILL'S WORLD, WE JUST LIVE IN IT

Immigration was also the subject of Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points" memo: "The federal government has allowed millions of illegal aliens to enter the country. And the media has basically supported that choice. Anarchy is the result. So let's stop the nonsense" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 4/10).

IT'S LOU DOBBS VERSUS THE TERMINATOR

Lou Dobbs was all over the story, not only talking about it on his show, but discussing it on other CNN programs. But he offered this commentary on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) during his own broadcast: "Governor, were you talking about me when you wrote how ironic it is to hear some of the same voices who complain about the outsourcing of jobs also complain about the use of immigrant workers here in America? If so, be a man, governor, use names. You know mine. And don't call illegal aliens, immigrants. You insult legal immigrants when you do. You know as well as I do, that I've never complained about immigrant workers in this country, ever, only illegal aliens and illegal employers who break the law" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 4/10). [Emily Goodin]

Meet Gov. Mike Huckabee's most dogged critic: the Club for Growth.

Today, flanked by clergy, union members and business leaders, Huckabee signed $1.10 worth of a minimum wage increase into law.

You can bet your bottom dollar on it: many fiscal conservative activists consider such actions tantamount to a tax on business.

Huckabee's action marks the fifth time, per the Club, that the AR governor has raised taxes.

The conclusion of the Club's government affairs director, Andy Roth: "Mike Huckabee is a liberal."

Huckabee has noticed the Club's heckles and he was uncharacteristially curt when asked about their accuracy.

Well, The Club for Growth, in a typical fashion, acts more like a talk show host than they do a serious seeker of facts and they have a lot of nice tools that they use for their own fund raising mechanism to show that they're champions of conservatism, but I find their message sometimes appalling. For example, one of the taxes they claimed that I had supported, I -- in fact -- didn't sign. I don't have much of a veto power in Arkansas."

Huckabee notes that he's cut taxes and pushed through the legislature a property taxpayer bill of rights. He defends a gas tax increase by noting that an overwhelming majority of Arkansans supported it and he, the governor, makes no apology for fixing the state's dilapidated roadways.

Two of the most potent conservative interest groups in IA are the Iowa Christian Coalition (now remaned the Iowa Christian Alliance) and Iowans for Tax Relief. (The third is the NRA.)

Huckabee, an evangelical Baptist minister, is a most authentic hero to one. He might not be beloved by the other when the Club is finished with him.

An estimated 180,000K pro-immigration/anti-something about immigration protestors will jam Washington, D.C. today; hundreds of thousands more, funded and prompted by the immigration rights lobby, will show up in other cities.

And hundreds of miles from any protest -- heck, thousands of miles from a border -- a Republican congressional candidate has decided to make his first television advertisement about immigration.

Ex-IA GOP chair Brian Kennedy, a candidate to replace Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA-1), timed his ad to the visits of both Pres. Bush and John McCain to his state.

The ad shows Kennedy at the Texas border calling for tougher enforcement.

"Hi. I'm Brian Kennedy. I'm in Zapata, Texas on the banks of the Rio Grande River, our border with Mexico. Unless we defend this border, we won't be defending our homeland. My plan to defend our homeland is to put an additional 10,000 border patrol agents on this border. As your Congressman, I'll fight to defend this border. I'm Brian Kennedy. I approve this message to defend our border and end illegal immigration."

Nary a word about "guest worker program" or anything else.

Here's what Kennedy says about his ad: "With our nation's most important leaders visiting Iowa this week, it is the ideal time for the grassroots of the Republican Party to let their views be known on an issue critical to our national security and our economic security. This commercial serves to move the debate about immigration reform and border security from the floor of the United States Senate and the protest in the streets and into the campaign politics of 2006 and beyond."

The ad speaks to what's fundamentally weird about the immigration debate in '06. It's an issue in IA -- just ask any presidential candidate -- but in order to illustrate the point, the candidate has to shoot his ad in a state far, far away. (Though, in that vein, it's not dissimilar to Rep. Harold Ford's TN SEN ad on port security featuring the port of Baltimore.)

As we get information about SEN '06 quarterly filings, we'll pass 'em along.

RI AG Sheldon Whitehouse's (D) campaign announced today that it will enter the second quarter year with more than $1.8M cash on hand, including $1.37M for the primary. The Whitehouse campaign raised over $530K in the first three months of '06.

In Whitehouse's quarterly FEC filing, the campaign expects to show total receipts of more than $2.7M since the race began, with over half a million dollars in the past three months alone. Whitehouse '06 spent about $288,000 in the first quarter of 2006.

In 1996, WV GOV nominee Charlotte Pritt (D) lost a tough race to ex-Gov. Cecil Underwood (R).

On 10/31/97, she filed a lawsuit against 3 GOP groups responsible for a pair of TV ads which she claim slandered her character, a case that wasn't decided until 3/13 of 2006 -- more than eight years later.

Here's the script for one of the spots:

ANNCR:

"Behind Charlotte Pritt's campaign smile is a liberal voting record she can't hide from. In the state senate, Charlotte Pritt proposed teaching first graders about condoms. Surprised? You shouldn't be. Senator Pritt also voted to permit the sale of pornographic videos... to children. She even voted to allow convicted drug abusers to work in our public schools. Look behind the smile. Charlotte Pritt. Wrong on the issues. Wrong for West Virginia.

In the end, a Fayette Co. jury ruled against Pritt's lawsuit against the RNC, NRSC and the WV State Victory cmte. Still, attys involved with the case say that this is the first time, to their knowledge, that such a case has even made it to trial, raising intriguing questions about First Amendment rights in political campaigns. [KATHLEEN HAUGHNEY]

Tomorrow's special election in CA 50 to replace Duke Cunningham features 18 major-party candidates on the ballot and much potential for confusion.

Special elections are always unpredictable (the OH 02 special comes to mind), but one thing's for sure: GOPers need to hold this safe seat, or risk even bigger problems down the road.

Bypassing a June runoff requires at least 50 percent of the vote. Absentee turnout, especially in Dem areas, is high -- analysts predict that turnout could exceed 15 percent, which for a special election is quite solid.

Both nat'l parties are making a concerted effort.

Since spending nearly $2M self-funding, businessman Eric Roach (R) triggered the Millionaire's Amendment allowing Dem Francine Busby to strengthen her ground game and her ties to the DCCC. (The DCCC has given $100K for her GOTV effort; it's at least enough to allow the cmte to take a look at winning outright pre-June) Early absentee tallies (as of 4/3) indicate Dems comprise 38% of the vote total -- higher than the party's usual CD registration.

Meanwhile, the NRCC began airing an attack ad questioning Busby's ethics -- the first high-profile shot at her. The ad buy suggests that the NRCC is concerned that Busby has a shot at winning the seat outright with 50% -- they predict she'll get at least 43 percent.

Before the NRCC ad, the leading GOP candidates focused more on criticizing each other, leaving Busby's campaign unimpeded.

Let's say Busby gets 45 percent. She'll advance to the run-off in June. Remember, though, that on that same June day, the regular party primaries will take place. The winners of that ballot -- (R) and (D) -- will face each other in November. The single winner of the run-off becomes, briefly, a duly-elected member of Congress.

Republicans Brian Bilbray and Harold Kaloogian may wind up running in June -- even if only one of them advances to the ballot. Bilbray, an ex-U.S. Rep., is the establishment candidate, though his platform consists of bashing Pres. Bush on immigration. Kaloogian is running to his starboard and is potentially more formidable in primary where all the rightward challengers sap votes from Bilbray. Roach is said to be less inclined to enter the GOP primary if he loses tomorrow. But who knows?

Tonight, former vice president Al Gore will join ex-Pres. Bill Clinton at a gala fundraiser in New York (has any fundraising dinner in New York ever not been a gala?) for the Democratic National Committee.

The event honors Maureen White, who labored for five years as the DNC's finance chair -- under both Terry McAuliffe and current chair Howard Dean.

White is stepping down from her DNC perch. After a short break, she'll join the Senate re-election campaign of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Gore, whose relationship with his former boss chilled, then warmed, then sort of evened out, is a last-minute addition to the line-by-line.

DNC Regional Field Organizer Anathea Chino has the hardest job. Chino will deliver a presentation on the DNC's 50-state organizing project to the audience of deep-pocketed donors and New York's political media elite.

The dinner will net the DNC about $1.3 million. [MARC AMBINDER]

Sen. George Allen has spruced up his website, www.georgeallen.com

Note that URL. It is is not "Allen06.com" or "AllenforSenate.com"

And if that was not enough of an hint towards his '08 hopes, check out the detailed list of his top achievments as both Governor (11 minute video included) and Senator.

Allen also uses the updated page to tout his annoucement tour of VA next week. Most striking about the three-day, 11-stop trip is where Allen is NOT going in the Commonwealth. Though he is making visits near both places, the Senator is skipping over both Fairfax Co -- VA's largest locality -- and the large Tidewater cities of Norfolk and Va Beach.

Allen's base of support as always been in rural Southside and Western VA, but that he would not even touch down in VA's biggest population centers in launching his re-election is notable.

Maybe it has something to do with how all three places voted in last year's GOV race?

As serious as it may be for Mollohan, this morning's WSJ expose may carry an even greater risk for Nancy Pelosi and her hopes to become Speaker in January.

For all their effort, the NRCC has not been able to put the William Jefferson investigation front and center. Though there still may well be more indictments to come in that case, it has not captured the attention of the Washington press corps so as to lessen the fallout from the Duke-stir, DeLay and Abramoff scandals as the GOP had hoped.

The danger for Dems in the Mollohan case is that they may not be able to make the argument -- as the GOP tried to with Cunningham and as Dems likely will should Jefferson's case progress -- that this is merely an isolated incident. The actions taken by Mollohan - and we must remind that he has not been charged with wrongdoing - have nothing to do with a "culture of corruption" or a "K St. Project." Instead, they are representative of how some in Congress do business and how, in particular, those who sit on the Approps committee are, how shall we put it, uniquely situated to do that business.

In other words, it says that the whole system is rotten and it ain't just one side of the aisle that milks it.

Yes, the GOP is more likely to be hurt by the system because they are the ones in charge of the place, but stories such as these reinforce the notion among voters that "they all do it" while diluting the message that it is the GOP that has corrupted things. Just as damaging for Dems, such pieces also remind reporters that corruption, or at least pushing the earmark envelope, is a forbidden fruit that pols of all stripes are tempted with.

Further, it says to enterprising journalists that there may well be other Duke Cunninghams or Alan Mollohans (not that their cases are even remotely the same) to be found in their own circulation area. And more revelations of more Members playing fast and loose only fuels more voter cynicism about the whole Beltway crowd.

Lastly, of all the 201 Dems in the House, Pelosi and Co. have to be asking themselves today: Why, oh why, does it have to be our ethics committee ranking member who is now under federal investigation?

Were it not for bad luck...

[JONATHAN MARTIN and JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that the feds are investigating Rep. Alan Mollohan's (D-WV 01) finances and "whether they were properly disclosed."

According to the Journal, Mollohan's household assets exponentially grew (from $565K in '00 to at least $6.3M in' 04).

In addition, the article notes that one of his non-profit groups is "funded almost entirely through provisions he put into annual spending bills." NRCC Chmn Tom Reynolds called today for Mollohan to step down as ranking member of the ethics cmte until an investigation is complete.

If this story has legs, it could muddy the Dem narrative of the GOP culture of corruption. It's possible Mollohan accrued a quick fortune from real estate acquisitions and just improperly reporting his finances.

But his seniority on the Appropriations and ethics cmtes raises larger and fundamental questions about the use and abuse of earmarks. The timing also couldn't be worse for Dems -- with Tom DeLay's resignation, a budget stalemate and immigration exposing fissures in the GOP.

And locally, Mollohan has a legitimate GOP opponent with strong WH backing -- state Del. Chris Wakim -- for the first time in a while. Could the Dems' ethics point-man derail his own party's ethics edge?

Asked for a comment on the story, Min Leader Nancy Pelosi's office pointed to comments she made at her presser yesterday. Pelosi: "I have the highest regard for Mr. Mollohan. I named him to that position [on the ethics cmte] because of his independence and the high respect he commands in this Congress."

Another House Dem strategist responded to the news by saying that Reynolds, Speaker Dennis Hastert and the NRCC "want to see" Mollohan "defeated for one reason and one reason only -- because of his dedication to cleaning up Washington and making sure" the ethics cmte "does it's job of cleaning up the Congress and protecting the American people from lobbyists and special interests."

This and Mollohan's efforts for WV have gotten him a "target on his back" from the GOP leadership, the source said.

UPDATE: CongressDaily's Sue Davis reports that Hastert is also calling on Mollohan to step aside from his ethics post. Referring to ex-Admin Committee chair Bob Ney (R-OH), Hastert said: "I asked my chairman to step aside." The Speaker added that he "was wondering why [Ethics Committee Democrats] were dragging their feet on this whole ethics thing." Hastert: "I don't know if that has anything to do with it or not, we'll see."

UPDATE II: Mollohan has now responded by issuing a lengthy rebuttal to the story and by sending Reynolds and Hastert an open letter. They are both pasted in full after the jump.

Also, Pelosi has released a statement hitting back hard at the GOP. Replete with a chronlogical list of what she says are Dem efforts to reform the ethics process, Pelosi charges Hastert "and his Republican cohorts" with being "responsible for the most corrupt Congress in history." She adds that the GOPers "destroyed the ethics process in the House to protect their cronies Cunningham, DeLay, Ney, and other Members implicated in the Abramoff scandal - to name only a few." Pelosi: "The Speaker should join me in directing the Ethics Committee to get to work, and not cast aspersions on the independent and distinguished Ranking Member."

UPDATE III: The good-gov't crowd is now getting into the action. CREW, hardly a conservative front group, is calling on Mollohan to step down from his ethics post while under investigation. They add that if Mollohan does not "voluntarily step aside," Pelosi should "remove him and appoint a new member immediately."

[JOSH KRAUSHAAR and JONATHAN MARTIN]

For the first time in years, the WH and RNC have organized high-level briefings for some nation's biggest labor unions, gatherings described by GOPers both as part of traditional midterm election outreach as well as a consequence of widening differences within the labor movement about tactics and strategy.

WH pol. dir. Sara Taylor, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman and RNC pol. dir. Mike DuHaime will sit down with pol. directors and execs from at least seven unions in RNC meetings this month. Participating unions include the carpenters, the operating engineers, the firefighters, the laborers, the boilermakers, the painters and the seafarers.

GOPers plan to discuss their sense of the nat'l landscape and will solicit labor's take on information about specific races where labor-friendly GOPers are vulnerable. Said one GOP official: "They support [some] Republicans. It's good for them to understand us. It's good for us to understand them." The pitch was described by another GOP official as, "We're interested in talking with you guys a little bit more about where out political interests are." Beyond that, though, the RNC's intentions puzzle many invitees. Several labor officials said they wondered whether the RNC would ask whether they planned to spend money on specific races.

(Two GOP officials say the topic of labor cash, which frightens Republicans at all levels, is not an intended topic of discussion, though it might come up.). One labor source planning on attending said he expected the agenda to include a discussion of "various races and situations around the country and perhaps some issues." This source was quick to add that many of the participating unions already "have built very productive working relationships" with moderate Hill GOPers, and that, in this sense, the meeting was "nothing new." What is new, of course, is the pro-active outreach by GOPers and Bush admin officials at top levels. [MARC AMBINDER AND JONATHAN MARTIN]

Occasionally, a story falls out of the Hotline and slips through the cracks. Today, it happened to our summary of John Kerry's whirlwind over the past 24 hours. So we present for you, our general audience.

If you want to subscribe to the Hotline -- where you can get seventy stories like this every day and much much more -- go here.

Moving On To '08?

Airing It Out

Every year this librarian in Maine asks various celebs to name their favorite books.

This year she got books from George Pataki (Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln by Doris Kearns Goodwin), Newt Gingrich (The Effective Executive by Peter Drucker) and Tom Vilsack (The World is Flat by Thomas L. Friedman.)

Past contributors have included John McCain (For Whom the Bell Tolls by Ernest Hemingway) and John Kerry (Flags of our Fathers by James Bradley with Ron Powers, Shackleton (author not provided), Undaunted Courage by Stephen Ambrose)

She also got book recommendations from Bush when he was TX GOV (including The Very Hungry Caterpillar by Eric Carle and James and the Giant Peach by Roald Dahl) and Al Gore when he was VP (Mr. Popper's Penguins by Richard and Florence Atwater.)

Ronald Reagan:

"I need John Raese to help me in the United States Senate."

Of course, it's from 1984. When WV SEN candidate Raese ran last time. But he's using it in a radio ad that began running today in WV.

From this morning:

DON IMUS: This is the going to sound arrogant and presumptuous and boorish of me. But this is -- see, this is the way you ought to be all the time when you're on these programs. I mean, you talk like a regular person; you made sense. You don't have these incomprehensible diatribes that nobody can understand. You sound like you're -- you were good.

JOHN KERRY: Well, I'm learning. I'm learning, man. You're teaching. You're a good teacher.

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

OR was a tough state to sort through. One observer told us about a statewide political brain drain. "I don't really think that public service is attractive," he said, noting that the state had stars, but none of them were considering bids any time in the near future. The state, he told us, is as polarized as DC is, and that's evident from the tone of the '06 Gov race. Both general election candidates from '02 are running, and each has their (serious) detractors within their own parties. The GOP, however, has a big problem in the form of GOP State Sen. Ben Westlund, who's running as an independent. Dems, meanwhile, remain frustrated at Sen. Gordon Smith's (R) popularity, and see any candidate running against him as an unfortunate sacrificial lamb. [REID WILSON]

A very busy weekend for ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D).

Today, he's in Clayton, MO, just outside of St. Louis, to raise money for his PAC. (The event might have the blessing of ex-MO Gov. Bob Holden (D)). Warner then visits Bass Pro Shops' famous Outdoor World theme park and store in Springfield, ripe for a "Dem with a gun" photo-op. Democrats in Greene Co. will hear Warner speak tonight at their legendary Jackson Days dinner.

Tomorrow morning, he'll make headlines at a fundraiser for Senate candidate Claire McCaskill (D). And by nightfall, he provides the keynote at the Democratic Party of Wisconsin's annual Founders Day gala in Milwaukee. (The WI Dem chair calls Warner "one of the most impressive" Dems in the country.)

It will be pointed out that McCaskill is fine with Warner helping her raise money publicly -- a rare national Dem whose acceptable in the Midwest.

BTW: Warner's first IA trip since he left the GOV's office will be 4/20. He'll host a fundraiser for Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-IA). [MARC AMBINDER]

HOTLINE AFTER DARK

If you're not into "My Name Is Earl," there's always the man named Kerry:

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) was on "Hardball" and the "Situation Room":

On reports Pres. Bush declasssifed info: "If it's true, it proves that the buck doesn't stop anywhere in this administration. It also proves that the president has a funny sense of having an investigation, when he says we're going to get to the bottom of it and I'll fire the person who authorized it, if he indeed authorized it" (MSNBC, 4/6).

Asked if he supports the censure resolution: "I am inclined to believe it, and I think the hearings are appropriate, and I would be prepared to vote for it, if there shows the appropriate linkage of what they've done to the requirements of the law."

Asked if he's running in '08: "I honestly don't know yet" (CNN, 4/6). [EMILY GOODIN]

That the House leadership has told Members that there will not be a budget vote tomorrow. Floor action on the FY 07 spending blueprint had been planned for this week, but squabbles better explained by our cousins at CongressDaily have erupted between conservatives and Appropriations Committee chair Jerry Lewis (R-CA).

The political upshot is, of course, that the already beleaguered House GOP majority now goes into a two-week Easter recess without having passed a budget, fueling both the media narrative of heightened Republican infighting and the Nancy/Rahm line of this being another "Do-Nothing" Congress.

UPDATE: Leader Pelosi is wasting no time. She'll hold a 7:30 Capitol presser on the "Collapse of Republican Budget"

Starting this month and continuing through the cycle, Hotline State Editor Quinn McCord will be pitching in with the Senate rankings.

Some of the write-ups (including Virginia and those in the second half of the rankings this month) are his thoughts, but I stand by them. The Hotline is one of the great journalistic collaborations in this town, so why not share some of that collaboration in our rankings?

This month, the rankings continue to show a shift toward the Democrats, thanks mostly to the localized environment in Montana and the national wind that's blowing their way. Agree or disagree? Let us know. And as always, you can rank the top 10 races yourself, alongside ours. [CHUCK TODD]

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has two spot-on posts this afternoon.

He scoops the world that Mary Matalin will serve as treasurer for Allen's Senate re-election committee.

And he notes that 527 "reform" might not be a bad thing for the Democrats.

The 2008 Republican National Convention will begin 9/1 and end 9/4, the RNC said today.

Party officials have in the past few months quietly reached out to political coverage decision-makers at television networks to test their reaction to those dates.

In '05, DNC Chair Howard Dean announced that the party would hold its convention from 8/25-8/28, effectively boxing GOPers into either holding the convention the same week as the Democrats -- which the RNC rejected -- or holding it the week after.

Rules in several states prevent presidential nominees from being added to the general election ballot after a certain point -- usually early September.

Two other advantages to a late convention: if both party nominees decide to accept the federal match for the general, they'll get to spend it over a relatively shorter period of time. And the '08 Beijing Olympics will not intrude with post-convention media coverage -- Even though the Olympics were delayed two weeks -- China wanted that, apparently -- they end by 8/24 -- right before the start of the DNC convention.

The RNC has allowed 31 cities to bid for the convention; the Dems solicited bids from 11. The Dems will announce their city in late '06; the GOP will announce it in early '07. [MARC AMBINDER]

When a rookie professional wrestler gets uppity -- when he thinks he should win more often -- chances are that a veteran will tell him quickly to "know your role." As in -- be patient. We're all here to make money for our company. And there are certain things you just don't do -- especially when you're a rookie.

Primary politics in NH is a bit like pro wrestling. NH Dem leaders and NH GOP leaders want to guard the state's first-in-the-nation primary status at all costs -- even if means they have to war with their own party. That's their role.

As a consequence, fights about the primary status usually involve combatants from the same party. (The overwhelming conspiratorial meme is the "Forces Of Clinton" have been working for years to add contests between IA and the famously-front-runner-denying-insurgent-loving New Hampshire.)

The closest ally of the state Dem party chair is often the state's top Reublican National Committeeman or Committeewoman. Or the chair of the state Republican Party.

But NH GOPers must really be worried. They've watched the DNC primary calendar commission with a mix of earnest interest and "there but for the grace of God go we." Now, the new party chair has decided to step out of his traditional role and frontally attack his Dem counterpart, Kathy Sullivan, about her performance in the primary fight.

Wayne Semprini said that Sullivan "'is in over her head' trying to deal with national Democrats who want to schedule one or two caucuses between Iowa’s leadoff caucus and the primary in January 2008."

He urged Dem Gov. John Lynch to, basically, get rid of her.

Sullivan, for her part, responded that "Semprini trod on hallowed ground by making the primary a subject of a partisan attack. She chalked it up to his 'desperation to change the subject from the financial and other woes of the New Hampshire Republican Party."

Here's the one thing to remember going forward.

For New Hampshire's political elite, the primary IS NOT ABOUT DELEGATES. It's about status. So if Bill Gardner, the Sec/State, decides to hold the primary in, say, December of 2007 or very early in January of 2008, both GOP and Dem leaders in the state will be happy.

Yes -- if the Dems violate Dem party rules, they risk not getting their delegates seated. And if the GOPers in NH violate RNC rules -- the same risk applies.

But both parties have already decided that they'd much rather guard their tradition than worry about the convention. After all -- by that time, it's more likely than not that (a) delegate counts won't matter and (b) the Dem and GOP parties wouldn't DARE refuse to seat delegates from a swing state like New Hampshire. [MARC AMBINDER]

(Note: an earlier version of the post incorrectly said that two stations had pulled the ads. They have not.)

Dems are trying to block an attempt by the NRCC to derail once and forth all the write-in primary candidacy of Dem recruit Charlie Wilson in OH-6.

An NRCC ad claims Wilson, who served as a trustee of a regional water authority, knew that "millions of gallons of raw sewage" was "secretly dumped" into the Ohio River. And it quotes Wilson as being worried that the revelations would hurt his political career. Not tame stuff, but not out of line for TV ads these days.

Dems tried to persuade television stations in Wheeling and Younsgtown that the ad was misleading.

National Dems were told this morning that the two Wheeling stations decided to pull the ads and Dems received apparently confirmation information from their ad buyers. But when we checked, the stations said the ads were still in rotation.

In politically polarized times (with Republicans in control of the FCC and other levers of power -- we're just noting, not Hofstader-ing), stations are more sensitive to the content of television advertisements that they might ordinarily be.

For Wilson to be nominated as the Dem in the district, he'll need primary voters to write his name in. At the very least, the NRCC ad certainly boosts Wilson's name ID!

Somewhat conspiratorily, we were passed a "CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM" sent to GOP Chiefs of Staff on the Hill by supporters of NY SEN candidate John Spencer (R).

He's in Washington today and wants to meet privately with these folks to sell them on "The Plan" to beat Sen. Hillary Clinton (D). There's a breakfast session and a lunch session at the Phoenix Park Hotel.

The hope is that Spencer gets Hill GOPers to pressure the national party into supporting Spencer (with $$) and more importantly, to get major, establishment-minded GOP donors excited about the race.

From the invite:

"During the breakfast and lunch, Mayor Spencer is going to outline The Plan to defeat Senator Clinton in November. The campaign will present the political strategy to win and then outline our National Fundraising Strategy to raise the necessary funds to implement The Plan."

We were all set to give our gentle On Call readers this mini-scoop when we recieved a "MEDIA ADVISORY" from the Spencer campaign.

WHO: John Spencer D.C. press availability today
WHAT: John Spencer will be available to discuss his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against Senator Hillary Clinton.
WHERE: The Phoenix Park Hotel, 520 North Capitol Street, N.W., Washington, D.C.
WHEN: TODAY - Thursday April 6, 2006 at 1:00pm.

"John Spencer will be in Washington, D.C. to discuss his candidacy with Members of Congress and conservative leaders to discuss his campaign operations and national finance plan."

The political pendulum, says Chuck Todd, might be swinging in the Democrats' favor, but a handful of Republican recruits for the Senate look promising.
On The Trail.

"....aside from the Rep. Katherine Harris (R) debacle in FL, the National Republican Senatorial Committee's recruitment efforts haven't been the disaster once portrayed by folks like us. Granted, the GOP was forced to settle for its third or fourth choice in a number of races. But the more we've seen of some of these candidates, the more we're convinced that if the playing field were level this year, Republicans would have a fighting chance to pick off a couple of Democrat-held seats. Four candidates in particular have caught our attention: Mike McGavick in Washington, Mike Bouchard in Michigan, Pete Ricketts in Nebraska and John Raese in West Virginia.

From the National Journal's Murray Waas:

"Although not reflected in the court papers, two senior government officials said in interviews with National Journal in recent days that Libby has also asserted that Cheney authorized him to leak classified information to a number of journalists during the run-up to war with Iraq. In some instances, the information leaked was directly discussed with the Vice President, while in other instances Libby believed he had broad authority to release information that would make the case to go to war."

(The New York Sun's Josh Gerstein this a.m. reported that Libby, in a court filing, said he had been authorized by Pres. Bush to give classified information to a New York Times reporter.)

Writes Waas: "In yet another instance, Libby had claimed that President Bush authorized Libby to speak to and provide classified information to Washington Post assistant managing editor Bob Woodward for "Plan of Attack," a book written by Woodward about the run-up to the Iraqi war."

We know you got "Lost" in your own world last night so...

"Hardball" focused on fallout from Tom DeLay's resignation, with ex-Rep. Vin Weber (R-MN), Pat Buchanan, and ex-San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown.

DNC Chair Howard Dean also stopped by: "We don't need Tom DeLay as a poster boy for corruption. We have Karl Rove who still has a security clearance after leaking the name of a security agent. We've have got Bill Frist, we've got Dick Cheney's chief of staff. We have got so many poster boys for corruption in the Republican Party that, you know, I think this is good for America that Tom DeLay has stepped down and now we're on to the next thing" (MSNBC, 4/5).

"Situation Room" focused on Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA). It also replayed Soledad O'Brien's hard-hitting interview that took place earlier on "American Morning."

CNN's Jeffrey Toobin: "Certainly the empanelling of a grand jury on this issue is an indication Cynthia McKinney's in some serious trouble."

And McKinney atty James Myart was on. Asked if McKinney would be indicted: "I would not be surprised. Grand juries do what grand juries do. However, I would think that they would recognize that there simply is not enough evidence here to even bring an indictment."

As to McKinney's changing appearance, Myart: "First of all, she's beautiful."

CNN's Blitzer: "That's another matter."

"Special Report" also led with McKinney while the roundtable discussed Katie Couric's move to CBS and immigration reform.

DeLay was on "Hannity & Colmes," where he talked about his decision to resign and McKinney. DeLay: "This touches me personally. I had a Capitol police officer die in my office, protecting me and my staff. ... I hope she will be charged
with assault, and the House needs to deal with it through the ethics process."

More DeLay: "She has a long history of blaming everything on the color of her skin. She plays the victim card, the race card. She and her father and others are even anti-Semitic. She has that reputation."

Myart was on after DeLay: "I wouldn't expect a rich, white boy like Tom DeLay to know what it's like to walk into a store, a department store, and be followed. I wouldn't expect a rich white boy like -- or person -- like Tom DeLay to understand what
it's like as a black male to stand in an elevator and have a white woman come to get in and turn around."

FNC's Hannity: "Rich white boy? ... I don't know if he's rich. You don't know how much. He used to be a plumber." More: "He was an exterminator. I don't know if he's rich. He worked for a living, very hard. He's a hard working man" (FNC, 4/5).

"LKL" hosted "friends, family and colleagues" of Couric.

And John Roberts hosted "AC 360" last night, where he said of Couric: "It's a gamble for CBS, which has been mired in third place in the news ratings for more than a decade" (CNN, 4/5).

An AP/TV Guide Magazine poll released this evening shows that if Katie Couric were to anchor a network evening news program, 50% of adults are likely to watch her, as opposed to 47% who said they were unlikely to tune in. 49% would rather watch Couric on the Today Show than as an evening news program anchor (29%).

Among the 17% who said the CBS Evening News is their favorite evening news program, 20% would switch to another network if Couric is the anchor; 73% would remain loyal. Among those who do not say CBS Evening News is their favorite, 26% would switch to see Couric; 69% would not.

Good Morning America co-anchor Diane Sawyer is overwhelmingly found to be the most favorable TV network news personality among the list below. Couric is a distant second (release).

Fav/Unfav                     Fav/Unfav
Diane Sawyer                  72%/16%
Katie Couric                  55 /22
Brian Williams                52 / 6
Charles Gibson                49 / 9
Bob Scheiffer                 49 /10
Jim Lehrer                    42 / 8
Anderson Cooper               36 /10
Elizabeth Vargas              35 / 5
Shepard Smith                 25 / 7

The Club for Growth is the best ally Nancy Pelosi could hope for -- at least on the 527 bill.

The Club -- among the most feared and effective conservative interest groups -- is on a tear.

The Club's government affairs director, Andy Roth, put all his energy into the bill's defeat. And the Club, like most other grassroots/grasstops conservative groups, keyvoted the legislation, too.

BTW: Also doing lobbying (behind the scenes): what's left of the America Votes coalition, which doesn't want to be turned into an ACT-like "George Soros" bugbear for Republicans.

In the end, the efforts came up nine votes short. The GOP leadership held open the vote until they corralled enough yays. Prospects in the Senate are murkier.

Regular Hotline readers know about our daily "Overlooked?" feature where we offer up some nugget of political trivia, arcana or data that may have been forgotten, not considered, or, well, overlooked.

Some items, though, are too good to deprive our larger "On Call" readership of.

Courtesy of our musty and well-worn '76 Almanac, we came across a great find that we'd guess all but a few of you in the "515" area code knew about.

IA Sec/State/GOV candidate Chet Culver (D) is, of course, the son of ex-Sen. John Culver (D-IA). The senior Culver was elected to the Senate in the Watergate year of '74, serving one term in the upper body before being knocked off in the Reagan year by a hog farmer name of Grassley.

But guess who took Culver's Cedar Rapids/Dubuque-based House seat when he was first elected to the Senate in that great Dem year?

None other than a 29-year old elementary school teacher-turned Dem state Senator by the name of Mike Blouin. The same Mike Blouin who is now locked in a fierce primary battle with the son of the man whose seat he took.

Ain't IA great?

Politics NJ's Wally Edge reported that the "23-year partnership between the Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University's Eagleton Institute of Politics and the Star-Ledger has come to an end, with the state's largest newspaper no longer sponsoring political polls conducted by Eagleton." No longer referred to as the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Rutgers poll, Eagleton released a NJ SEN poll yesterday under the name Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, just days after two-days after the Star-Ledger released a Newark Mayoral poll by Blum & Welprin Associates.

The Eagleton poll began in '71 and was partnered with the Star-Ledger in '83. The 4/4 NJ poll was the first poll since the switch. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

MA Gov. Mitt Romney couldn't have picked a better morning to brief donors and supporters on the development of his national political ambitions.

He woke up to laudatory headlines in the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and New York Times.

We hear that Romney had breakfast this morning with 30-to-35 Americans. We don't know precisely what was discussed, although we do know that a power-point presentation (shades of his Bain days?) was shown and the Ritz Carlton buffet breakfast sure seemed expensive.

It's more accurate to say that it evolved -- naturally.

In 2005, Feingold told C-SPAN's Brian Lamb that he "grew up believing that marriage is between a man and a woman."

But -- "I don't think it's my job to sit in judgment on people on that issue."

Feingold then endorsed a state's right approach but hinted that he sympathized with gay marriage proponents.

Feingold today says that "Gay and lesbian people in our country are fighting a mean-spirited movement to hard them and discriminate against them. I stand with them against that movement, and I'm proud to stand with them."

First, Tom DeLay blasts fellow Republicans and hands the Democrats a supremely awesome talking point: GOPers "don't have an agreed agenda -- breaking up our leadership has taken its toll."

Do nothing Republicans, says Tom DeLay.

The quell the agita among conservative bloggers, senior Republicans in the House -- Cong. Chair Deborah Pryce and conference vice chair Jack Kingston held a conf. call this morning.

Here's how the call was described:

"This week Republicans will once again offer the American people a clear choice on the issues as they clean up the campaign finance system by closing the 527 loophole, take up a budget that spends taxpayer money wisely, and protect national security by working to secure our borders."

Border security dominated the call. Guests included border sheriffs from Texas. (Hensarling and Cantor couldn't make it -- they got stuck in a meeting.)

BTW: the GOP leadership would be hardpressed to find a conservative blogger who unreservedly supported the 527 legislation.

Tom DeLay continued his TV tour, stopping by the "Situation Room," "Special Report" and "Hardball."

Asked if he wants to be a lobbyist, DeLay: "I don't know what the future holds for me. I'm in God's hands and he guides me. And whatever I can do to help this country by leading it in a conservative direction, I'm going to do" (CNN, 4/4).

DeLay's faith was also discussed on "Hardball" and he said there are some "strong moral Democrats." When asked to name one, he said: "Barney Frank." More DeLay: "I don't agree with homosexuality, but I still -- I am commanded to love Barney Frank. I'm not going to judge him."

As to when he'll leave Congress, DeLay: "That'll depend on the congressional schedule. There are some things I'd like to clean up that are important to my district and I want to try to get that done" (MSNBC, 4/4).

On ex-staffer Tony Rudy: "When you're in a leadership office, it's a whirlwind every day. And you hire people and trust them because you've given them great responsibility to make certain decisions. And yes, it's very disappointing that that trust was misused. And obviously he pled guilty to it. But I also know that I have well over hundreds of good, strong people working for me and have done a great job -- because I had the best staff on the Hill" (FNC, 4/4). [EMILY GOODIN]

Under nearly everyone's radar, conservative activists in a handful of mostly Western and Midwestern states are edging closer to providing their base voters with a much greater say in choosing presidential candidates.

Party rules give state central committees the duty to adopt delegate selection plans. And most of these conservatives inspired by legendary movement conservatives like Morton Blackwell, want caucuses, rather than primaries. Why? Caucuses favor organized interests. Primaries dilute them. (Soccer moms don't vote in caucuses. Either do investment bankers. Moral conservatives usually do.)

In WA, CA, OR and elsewhere, activists affiliated with the National Federation of Republican Assemblies have built up their numbers on these state committees.

The efforts in some states are receiving tacit encouragement from supporters of presidential candidates like Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback.

In California, pro-rules-change Calif. Republican Assembly members are closer to taking power. State party rules can reward failed candidates for office with a seat on the central committee. Conservatives figured out that they could run for as many offices as they wanted. So long as their candidate won the primary, which was easy to do with just a bit of organization in Dem districts, they'd get an extra seat on the state committee.

Bob Novak describes the goal: "So far, it has gone largely under the radar. CRAs hope they will increase their ranks to as many as 600 members on the 1,500 member committee from the current 400 or so. Although it would deny them an outright majority of members, this would give them a working majority on the committee, where several non-members are sympathetic to their positions."

The Republican assemblyists haven't been successful everywhere. Establishment WA GOPers rebbuffed the conservatives' efforts to get a majority there -- for now.

Michigan is worth watching. Social conservatives have been pushing the committee to look at options other than an open primary -- which they think favors Sen. John McCain. A state party task force agreed on several conservative-friendly guidelines, including that the process "must prevent non-Republican participation" and it must "encourage grassroots participation and organization."

But the committee itself is committed to the rough status quo. Michigan does not register voters by party. The only significant difference from recent primaries is that Democrats and Republicans will cast separate ballots. But prospective voters can choose whichever ballot they want on election day.

The MI GOP is also negotiating with state Dems to hold their primaries on the same day, which would make it easier for independents and Democrats to vote for John McCain, if they wanted to.

Conservatives, meanwhile, will continue their push for caucuses.

Says one conservative involved in the effort: "The conservative movement has had a 30-year strategy of rule changes that no one understands but [about] 5 people." [MARC AMBINDER]

Laura Bush is quickly becoming the most popular GOPer on the fundraising trail, especially in Dem-leaning districts where the president isn't a big draw.

Earlier this week, she visited Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM 01), who publicly distanced herself from the Bush admin. on budget cuts and NSA wiretapping.

And on 4/24, she's heading to Greenwich, CT to raise money for Reps. Rob Simmons (CT 02), Chris Shays (CT 04) and Nancy Johnson (CT 05).

Her presence illustrates the dilemma blue-district GOPers have this cycle. They're avoiding the president, but want the big bucks he brings in.

The moderates hope the first lady gives them the headline name without ideological baggage. Is a presidential photo-op in these CDs so precarious that the incumbents will forego the extra cash? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline's Top 25 House Races

For more about how you can get House Race Hotline, click here.

"The chances were close to zero that a 52-year-old white guy who is a registered independent and who has spent pretty much the last 33 years living and working inside the Capital Beltway would agree with all or most of what the two most prominent liberal Democratic bloggers in America, one 34, the other 41, would write in their scathing attack on Washington and the political establishment."

"In fact, I winced a great deal while reading "Crashing the Gate: Netroots, Grassroots and the Rise of People-Powered Politics." I often disagreed with the characterizations and interpretations by the book's authors, Jerome Armstrong, founder of MyDD.com and Internet strategist for Howard Dean's presidential campaign, and Markos Moulitas Zuniga, better known for his blog, Daily Kos, which gets over 1 million unique visitors a day." Charlie Cook's Off To The Races.

Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) has announced her new Senate campaign team via press release. They include: media consultants Paul Wilson and Steve Grand of D.C.-area Wilson Grand Communications; manager Glenn Hodas, "on loan to the campaign" from Wilson Grand; ex-Max Burns CoS/Paul Coverdell spokesperson Chris Ingram as commun. dir.; ex-Kenny Hulshof manager Pat Thomas as field coordinator; Erin DeLullo as DC fundraising coordinator; and ex-House GOP spokesperson James Lafferty as senior advisor.

DeLullo's hiring speaks to Harris's evolving campaign strategy. Hint: it doesn't necessarily involve Florida. DeLullo is the chief fundraiser for OH Sec/State Ken Blackwell, another candidate popular with movement conservatives who is running without the national party's blessing. When Harris addresses movement conservative audiences out of state, she gets the loudest applause. So while she'll do her campaigning in FL, watch for her campaign to try to persuade conservatives outside FL to rally around one of their own. Whether the NRSC likes it or not.

Speaking of: The Washington Post's dashing Chris Cillizza wonders who'd jump in if Harris jumped out.

Here's an idea: Sen. John McCain hasn't pandered to the right on gay marriage.

McCain opposes same-sex marriage. He supports a constitutional amendment on the ballot in AZ that would prevent same-sex couples from getting married. He opposed the Federal Marriage Amendment because he believes it to be a state issue. If courts routinely supersede the voters' judgment on such matters, McCain might reconsider his opposition to the FMA. That's what he told Jerry Falwell, and that's what he's said for a while.

Now comes a somewhat self-serving press release from the Family Research Council. President Tony Perkins notes that he'll be on the same stage with McCain at Liberty University and expects McCain to answer, once and for all, how he'd vote on the federal marriage amendment.

"Although Senator McCain holds claim to the 'Straight Talk Express,' we are confused about his commitment to protect marriage. Two years ago, the Senator opposed a marriage amendment because he felt that state marriage amendments would survive federal court challenges. However, since then we've seen Nebraska's marriage amendment struck down and other state amendments tied up in court.

We're not sure who the royal "we" is, and we're not sure whether "values voters," as Perkins calls them in the next sentence, care all that much about gay marriage.

But McCain on Meet the Press pretty clearly said he would vote "no."

That's the same position he took two years ago. Perhaps he privately agrees with Ramesh Ponnuru, who finds Sen. Frist's almost-certain-to-be-symbolic effort to bring the amendment to the floor is akin to "just picking on gays for political profit."

More to the point: if McCain, a pro-life, pro-Gulf-war conservative who has spoken numerous times at liberal colleges and universities (the New School, for example), addresses an audience of social conservatives and yet has no compunction about voting against them on an allegedly threshold issue, where's the pander?

Perhaps it's in the eye of a media feeling like they misinterpreted McCain's congeniality to them and his often privately expressed (in colorful language) discomfort with Christian right political leaders as evidence that McCain is at heart a social liberal. He ain't.

BTW: Why hasn't someone accused Falwell of pandering to the American most likely to get the next Republican presidential nomination? [MARC AMBINDER]

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

Rep. Ernest Istook's (R) decision to run for Gov set off a mad scramble within the GOP to fill his seat, and the state LG's decision to enter the race opened another point from which a number of stars could make their first leap to prominence. Dems, meanwhile, are pinning their hopes on Gov. Brad Henry (D), who remains popular, Rep. Dan Boren (D), a freshman who is only moving up in DC, and their slim 25-22 margin in the State Sen. GOPers remain confident of their ability to take the legislature back, after winning the House for the first time in 80-some years. [REID WILSON]

Per Bloomberg:

"William F. Buckley Jr., the longtime conservative writer and leader, said that while a strong Republican candidate for the 2008 presidential race has yet to emerge, the Democrats have in Senator Hillary Clinton a true contender to become the first woman elected U.S. president."

The Tom DeLay news broke so late you would almost think it was part of the late night laughs. But it was no laughing matter and TV rushed to get the news out there.

MSNBC's Chris Matthews announced the news on "Scarborough Country" after receiving a call from DeLay: "He knows it's going to save the Republican Party a seat at least."

Matthews gave more details on the "Situation." Matthews: "He said that he wants to save the seat for the Republicans. He said anyone else who runs for this seat in the 22nd District of Texas will, as he put it, walk into the seat. He said that he had been in bad shape with the polling, which has been negative on him and declining for his re-election since last November. ... He also said that he would face a beating this summer from the Democrats. ... He said that he thinks that he can lead the Republican conservative movement from outside the Congress better than he can within."

Time's Allen was on after Matthews. Allen: "I'll start by saying that he does not think he's going to be convicted."

More Allen: "I asked him, 'Did you do anything illegal in office?' He said no. I said, 'Did you do anything unethical in office?' He said no. And I said, 'Did you do anything immoral?' And he started to say no and then he caught himself and said, 'We're all sinners.'"

On "On the Record," FNC's Brian Wilson, who has been the Fox pointman on the DeLay story, noted: "He is a pragmatist, and if there is one thing you know about Tom DeLay, he knows how to count votes -- that's what he is best known for. And Tom DeLay looked at it and said, I don't have the votes."

On "AC 360," Dana Bash reported that DeLay was on a conference call with the TX delegation to explain his decision and that he'll hold a presser this a.m.

HAVING HER SAY

Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) was on the "Situation Room" along with her attys James Myart and Michael Raffauf. McKinney: "If the members of the United States Capitol Hill Police who are charged with the responsibility of protecting the members of Congress don't know who they are, then what does that say to us about the kind of security that we have?"

More McKinney: "If you look at C-SPAN and the speeches from the floor of the House on any given day, you will see that there are very many members of Congress who don't happen to have their pins on while they're speaking on the floor of the House. But let me just say that the requirement for pages to become a congressional page at age 16 is to know by face and by name the members of the United States Congress. Don't you think that the United States Capitol Police ought to also know the members of Congress by name and by face?"

On her hairstyle change: "The bottom line is that my face hasn't changed, and I haven't changed." More: "My hair is not an issue."

Myart and Raffauf were also on the "Abrams Report." Myart: "Those lapel pins are like police badges. You can get them anywhere. That is no security at all."

Raffauf: "Congressmen and their entourage routinely walk by these checkpoints, so you must know your congressman."

STICKING WITH HIS DAY JOB

On "Hannity & Colmes," ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) said he'd had no discussions with anyone about going to work at the WH. Asked if he'll ever return to political life: "Three or four terms down the road, maybe I may."

Time's Mike Allen lands the big scoop of this short year -- Tom DeLay plans to quit his bid for re-election.

According to TX law, the party can fill a vacated nomination. It's why the NRCC desperately needed DeLay to win the March primary so they could find the best candidate to hold the GOP-leaning CD, rather than roll the dice with an unknown. The fact that DeLay's resignation announcement comes just three days after ex-aide Tony Rudy copped a plea is going to provide plenty of grist for the scandal mill.

The DSCC released a Garin, Hart, Yang (D) poll this afternoon that if deciding their vote for Congress based solely on national security, 41% of adults would be more likely to vote Dem as opposed to 39% GOP.

Conducted 3/24-28 for the DSCC, it surveyed 808 adults nationwide with a margin of error +/- 3.5%. The party ID breakdown: 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

Now then: at a briefing announcing the poll, three Dem Senate candidates -- Bob Casey of PA, Rep. Sherrod Brown of OH and Jim Pederson of AZ -- previewed the party's national security message.

One word: competence. As in: the Bush administration is not.
Two more words: "tough and smart" as in -- that's what the Democrats are.

"The October Surprise is going to be on the GOP when they wake up and realize that it's the Democratic Party that has an advantage on national security," said DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer.

A WNBC/Marist poll shows that Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-09) and Police Commis. Ray Kelly are early favorites for mayoral among NYC Dem voters.

Weiner receives 28% to Kelly's 23%. Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum, Comptroller William Thompson, and Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion follow. 21% of Dems are undecided.

If Kelly were to run as a GOPer, Weiner defeats him 52%-35% in a general matchup.

Despite the fact that 65% of NYC voters say Michael Bloomberg (R) is doing an excellent or good job as mayor, just 23% want to see him run for POTUS in '08. 72% say they do not want him to run -- the same number is true among GOPers. [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

MoveOn.org today will try to tie four vulnerable Republican incumbents to Tom DeLay, Jack Abramoff and "big oil" by spending more than $1M on television ads in their districts.

The ads target Rep. Chris Chocola (R-IN-2), Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA-2), Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT-4) and Rep. Deb Pryce (R-0H-15).

The ads say the members were "caught red-handed" helping big oil at the expense of Americans worried about high gasoline prices. The ads visually and through narration link the members' votes to the Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay scandals.

MoveOn's first major buy of the cycle testifies to the group's ability to raise large amounts of hard dollars through its millions-strong membership lists. The self-styled "progressive" interest group will shift virtually all of its political activity to its political action committee.

These spots will run for ten days beginning today. MoveOn has budgeted $1.3M for the campaign through June.

One hitch: already, according to the National Republican Congressional Committee, NBC affiliates in Columbus, OH and Hartford, CT have said they won't air the ad because the facts and insinuations are not substantiated.

Labor's political influence will be tested in May's Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Sherrod Brown of Ohio. In the crowded contest, a little-known contender received more than 20 union endorsements while her rival has earned the wrath of labor activists. Will that be a deciding factor come Election Day, on May 2?

The counties in Ohio's 13th District have traditionally been labor strongholds. Today, nearly 40 percent of households district-wide are unionized. Lorain County, the district's second-most populous county, is the area's blue-collar base and its economy still relies on auto manufacturing.

But the district's population center of Akron has evolved. The city's main commodity was once rubber, represented by its sprawling Goodyear factory. Now many of the old tire factories are high-tech centers for polymer research, and surrounding Summit County has a growing white-collar workforce.

Despite the economic changes, constituents here still take a protectionist mentality and view free-trade agreements unfavorably. After all, this is the district where Brown compiled one of the strongest pro-labor records in the House. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IL), the ex-chair of the pro-business Democratic Leadership Council, sounded at times like a New Deal liberal in his speech to the AFL-CIO's BCTD conference today.

He said he supported a host of expensive initiatives including "prevailing wages" for construction projects and a "jobs program" that he justified by saying that if the country could spend billions on Iraq, it could spend billions for the "reconstruction and future of the United States of America."

Bayh said that collective bargaining "is the foundation for economic growth. It doesn't hold back our economic growth." He noted that while as IN GOV, his executive order allowed 30K state workers to negotiate collectively and that when he left office, the state had its biggest surplus in history.

Said Bayh: "We proved that doing right by workers and doing right by the taxpayers can and must go hand in hand."

Bayh had an easy time with the audience, dropping the names of at least a dozen Indiana and national labor leaders during the first two minutes of his speech.

He paused at several points to rope in the dignitaries as validators. "Mike, do you remember that?" he said of Republican efforts to overturn Davis-Bacon laws. "Hey Tommy, do you remember that?" he said to an Indiana labor leader who supported his executive order as IN GOV to allow the state's workers to collectively bargain.

The union members gave him a standing ovation when he finished speaking.

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack told trade unionists this morning that they are the living exemplars of what he calls "the American bargain" and said that Democrats should support an "extensive infrastructure program" which would provide jobs for union members.

He was the first guest speaker at the AFL-CIO's Building And Construction Trade Department's annual legislative conference.

Vilsack obeyed the outline of the speech he generally gives to national audiences. He began by noting he is titularly the "commander in chief" of 9700 National Guard troops and has attended the funeral of many Iowans since the Iraq War began.

He told the moving story of an Iowan who sacrified his life for his fellow soldiers. His speech was laden with references to vets and, quite explictly, to his religion. He urged his audience to recall John 6:11, which deals with Jesus and the miraculously replicating loaves of bread and fish. Providing for the community, Vilsack said, is "what unions are all about."

Vilsack said he owes his career to "a construction job that put me through college and into law school, a construction job that paid me a union wage and where I was a proud member of a union."

Vilsack said that union members uniquely understand what he likes to call the "American Bargain."

Says Vilsack: "When you work hard, you're supposed to get ahead and when you get ahead, you're supposed to get something back."

The 2000 or so union members in attendence are concerned about keeping so-called "prevailing wage laws" in place to protect their ability to bargain for comfortably (read: mandatory) high wages, about pressures to sacrifice wage increases for health care, declining union membership generally, and with finding more Republicans to help fund lucrative construction projects.

Compounding their worries: several major unions withdrew from the BCTD to form their own bargaining collective for construction trades.

On immigration, the BCTD affiliates would support reform only if unspecified guarantees are built into the legislation to prevent employers from paying foreign workers low wages. A position paper distributed by the BCTD reads: "Expansion of guest worker programs without strong labor protections, including a meaningful
floor provision that protects both foreign and American workers is unacceptable."

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From Friday's Last Call:

Thanks to everyone who sent official Web site photos. Many sent in this page on Rep. Loretta Sanchez's site. Here are some more, in no particular order. Sen. Bill Nelson; Rep. Dennis Kucinich; House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi; Speaker Denny Hastert; Sen. Ben Nelson; Rep. Jack Kingston; Rep. Lee Terry; Rep. Mike Honda; Rep. Dan Boren; Rep. Geoff Davis; Rep. Sue "Hell No" Myrick; Rep. Vito Fossella; Rep. Brad Sherman; Rep. Jean Schmidt; Rep. John Sullivan; Rep. Shelley Berkley; Rep. Adam Putnam; Rep. Bob Filner; Rep. Richard Pombo; Rep. Denny Rehberg; Rep. Ellen Tauscher; Sen. Barbara Mikulski; Mikulski again; House candidate Raj from "The Apprentice"; Rep. Rosa DeLauro; Rep. Katherine Harris; Rep. Pat McHenry; Rep. Marty Meehan; Rep. Neil Abercrombie; Rep. Mary Bono; The Backstreet Boys; Rep. Tom Petri; Sen. John Ensign; Rep. Jim Gerlach; Gerlach again; Rep. Jane Harman; Sen. John Cornyn; Rep. Ruben Hinajosa; Rep. Louie Gohmert; Rep. Tom DeLay; Rep. Tom Tancredo; and finally, one of you just sent this in for old time's sake.

... that ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner and Sen. Russ Feingold will speak at the annual June 3rd NH Democratic State Convention in Manchester.

Also: Sen. John McCain will be in New Hampshire next weekend, attending, among other events, a town hall meeting with College Republicans at Keene State College.

Hotline Associate Editor Marc Ambinder orders the top candidates with reference only to how well they might do in Iowa. (Data + reporting + gut + speculation)