CA 50: The Ballot Might Hurt Busby
Coming tonight and early tomorrow: real-time election results and analysis.
Francine Busby's (D) organizational and fundraising success has given her some momentum heading into tonight's CA 50 special election. But one factor out of her control could be a slight deterrent.
There are four special election ballots, one of each of the assembly districts in the CD. In each ballot -- all randomly chosen -- Francine Busby's name appears toward the bottom of the ballot, and below the other Democrat who's running (Chris Young).
Busby has raised her name ID quickly with much direct mail, and TV/radio advertisements district-wide. But could a small number of Dems simply vote for the first Democrat listed?
The leading GOP candidates (Bilbray, Roach, Kaloogian) are also all bunched together in the middle of the ballot. Among credible candidates, only state Sen. Bill Morrow (R) has favorable placement on the ballots (he's at the very top and bottom on two of them).
Everything will need to go Busby's way (low GOP turnout, successful targeting of potential Dem, disaffected voters) for her to hit 50%, avoiding a runoff. If she falls just short, could it be the ballot that prevented victory?
In CA-48 Special the registrar drew lots for ballot placement yet in the actual election the ballots were different in nearly every precinct to even out the placement advantage/disadvantage.
I assume, without proof, this would be true in CA-50. I was staff on CA-48 and that's how I know the specfics. Hope the same system is in place in CA-50.