New Orleans Dispatch

NEW ORLEANS, LA -- There are only two certainties in the New Orleans mayoral race: It is one of the weirdest, most unconventional races anyone has ever seen in American politics, and it will have historical consequences.

In less than two weeks, on April 22, New Orleans voters will choose one of 22 candidates in the primary election. The first and second place finishers will face off in a May 20 run-off election. Less than two weeks after the mayor is decided, on June 1, hurricane season will begin.

The three top frontrunners are Mayor Ray Nagin (D), of "chocolate city" and "get of your asses" fame, Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (D), brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and son of ex-Mayor Moon Landrieu, and Audubon Institute Chief Executive Ron Forman (D), who has built "world class" facilities for his institute but otherwise is a political novice. Until last weekend, the conventional wisdom held that Landrieu and Nagin would face in the run-off. But Forman won the endorsement of the New Orleans Times-Picayune 4/9, which locks the three in a dead heat.

Other major candidates include Ron Couhig (R), a blunt talking Republican, Virginia Boulet (D), an attorney, Rev. Tom Watson (D), the Al Sharpton candidate, and Peggy Wilson (R), an ultra-conservative who derides "welfare queens," calls for a "tax-free city," and supports vouchers.

Almost eight month after Hurricane Katrina, this city is in poor shape. From the French Quarter to Uptown to the Lower 9th Ward, services are sporadic and the city is in decay. Trash is piled up everywhere, and pick-up has been reduced to once a week. Mail is delivered infrequently. Across the city, and especially in the hardest hit areas, there are no stop lights, only make shift stop signs. All but 12 schools are closed. Many FEMA trailers have still not arrived. And the city is broke. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

Reaching out to voters has been a challenge. Before the storm, the city had 480K residents (New Orleans had over 650K in 1955, more than Houston or Atalanta). Today it has just 180K. Forman manager Tim Phillips estimates that 90K to 95K New Orleanians, both here and dispersed, will cast votes. But as of today, only 13K displaced voters had filed for absentee ballots, according to Sec/State Al Ater (D). Ater allowed voting to begin Monday.

A majority of the debate has focused on rebuilding. Will the destroyed neighborhoods be rebuilt or converted in "green spaces?" What will become of public housing? Is it even worth it to get trailers at this point, three months before hurricane season? The mayor says "Come home," but to what? The city is desperately lacking homes, schools and jobs.

But there is also an emotional discussion about healing this divided city. One need only drive 10 minutes from the Uptown area, a community of cafes and colleges that was left largely above floodwaters, to the Lower Ninth Ward, a neighborhood destroyed and abandoned, to see the divisions. In the hard hit areas, each building still bears the spray paint "X" marks left by the National Guard (top of the "X" is the date checked, bottom is bodies/dogs found, left is the unit that checked, and right is entry or no entry). Driving across town, down Uptown's tree-lined St. Charles Avenue, there are cocktail parties on front porches.

Not surprisingly race has become a predominant issue in this campaign. The New York Times ran an article 4/4 under the headline "New Orleans election hinges on race, not rebuilding." Reporter Adam Nossiter alleged "No candidate appears to be making a more explicit racial bid than the incumbent mayor, C. Ray Nagin, the one major black candidate." Nagin recently made headlines by walking across the Crescent City Connection bridge with civil rights activist Jesse Jackson.

Nagin has an interesting history in race relations. As a largely unknown candidate in '02, it was the white community that fueled his campaign with money and propelled him into office. Four years later, many of them have jumped ship to Forman's camp. It's not certain which came first: Nagin losing support in the white community or his "chocolate city" comment, which may have won him African-American votes. But race is more complex than black and white in New Orleans, and race may just be a placeholder for class. (BTW: Forman has raised $2.2M, "more than the rest of the candidates combined," according to his camp.)

Landrieu has also been playing the race card. At a prayer breakfast with African-American pastors 4/8, he told the crowd, "I've said all along that race is not the issue. ... But race is the issue." He says some in the white community felt "gleeful" that many of the city's African-American residents had left, while many African-Americans were "anxious" about this city electing the first white mayor since 1978. But, he said, he would fight to bridge the divide, just like his "Daddy," who fought to be with his black friends.

Landrieu is hoping that his family's reputation of having strong support in both the white and black communities, will win him support. And likewise, he is hoping that his family's name will carry him over the top. Landrieu is a seasoned politician, from a political family; the Times-Picayune described him in their 4/7 profile as "the insider's insider." He is the type of politician who can walk into a prayer breakfast, work the entire room of black pastors while he singing along with the choir, and a moment later turn to a young reporter with an unwelcoming glare and talk business under his breath. He is often fidgety; his podium body language is the equivalent of being on the edge of his seat. But he seems hungry.

Nagin, on the other hand, is calm and slow moving on stage. Or perhaps he is just exhausted and tired. His campaign is based on his experience and a "stay the course" refrain. His warns not to vote for "On the job training." In a forum 4/8, he ended his closing statements: "I'm frustrated too. ... But do you want experienced leadership that is tried and tested or do you want to experiment?" But the his record is clearly mixed and his leadership is unconfirmed.

In a city without one definitive and authoritative voice, the Times-Picayune endorsement may prove very important. Nagin was running in sixth in '02 when the paper endorsed him. Forman will surely benefit, but he has a lot of convincing to do with the black community. Even the paper, in their endorsement, acknowledged his stereotype as the white elite candidate. Manager Tim Phillips, a veteran of Southern Dem politics including ex-Sen. Max Cleland '96 and ex-GA Roy Barnes' '02 campaigns, admits that their camp needs to work on reaching out to the African-American community. Largely overlooked, he argues, is that Forman is the son of a steelworker and went to New Orleans public schools.

In a Forman-Nagin runoff, the mayor will surely exploit the popular notion that Forman's base is white Uptown. A Nagin-Landrieu run-off, however, is a different story.

But for each candidate, the first challenge will be finding the voters.