The Hotline Futures Market: Oregon

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

OR was a tough state to sort through. One observer told us about a statewide political brain drain. "I don't really think that public service is attractive," he said, noting that the state had stars, but none of them were considering bids any time in the near future. The state, he told us, is as polarized as DC is, and that's evident from the tone of the '06 Gov race. Both general election candidates from '02 are running, and each has their (serious) detractors within their own parties. The GOP, however, has a big problem in the form of GOP State Sen. Ben Westlund, who's running as an independent. Dems, meanwhile, remain frustrated at Sen. Gordon Smith's (R) popularity, and see any candidate running against him as an unfortunate sacrificial lamb. [REID WILSON]

• '02/'06 Gov candidate Kevin Mannix (R): The favorite to win the primary, and if he does, GOPers are excited about their prospects in the general.
• State Sen. Jason Atkinson (R): Running for Gov too, though he's not expected to win. His bid is "a great step for him," especially if he's planning for an '08 down-ballot bid.
• State Rep. Linda Flores (R): The chair of the Ed Cmte, she's taken a lead on some controversial education system issues. She'll be a target of Dems in '06, but she's a "strong" candidate.
• Eugene Mayor Jim Torrey (R): Running for State Sen in '06, many expect him to beat an incumbent Dem. He "continues to be a high-profile guy."
• Max Williams (R): The former State Sen was appointed Dir of Corrections by Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) and is probably not going to run for office again.
• Steve Novick (D): The former Kulongoski aide is "a really good guy" who "likes to hold politicians' feet to the fire" when they don't toe the liberal line. He's now the Comm Dir. of Citizens for OR's Future.
• State Sen. Maj Leader Kate Brown (D): "I don't know what aspirations she has," but she could run for higher office if she wanted to. Some suggest she'll be a candidate when Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D) retires in OR 03.
• Atty Jefferson Smith (D): A "well-respected hard worker" close to the liberal base, he's "the Pied Piper of Oregon youth," getting them involved in politics. He's expected to run in OR 03 as well.
• State Rep. Dave Hunt (D): Some "don't know that he'll have much traction for a statewide race." The business-centered Hunt's fundraising abilities are at the heart of people's concerns.
• State Sen. Charlie Ringo (D): A State Rep. when we met him, Ringo recently announced he won't run for re-election in '06. He may consider running for Mayor of Beaverton in the future, but he'll probably concentrate on his private practice.

• State Rep. Karen Minnis (R): The Speaker of the House has aspirations to run for higher office.
• State Rep. Wayne Scott (R): The House Maj Leader also wants a bigger role in OR's future.
• State Rep. Derrick Kitts (R): Running in '06 against Rep. David Wu (D) in OR 01. GOPers are skeptical about his chances this year, but "he's got all of the ingredients" should he make a future statewide bid.
• State Treas. Randall Edwards (D): Being elected from the State House to a statewide office is not common in OR, but Edwards managed it. People say he's not well-known, but "he's ambitions and he's hungry."
• Ex-Monmouth Mayor Paul Evans (D): A prof. at Monmouth Univ, he's running for State Sen and is "someone that political people talk about."
• State Rep. Greg Macpherson (D): From the suburbs of Portland, based in Rep. Darlene Hooley's (D) OR 05 seat, he's "a person who, on the" Dem "side, we would talk about." He'd make a good AG candidate in the future, say some.