May 2006

Six days and counting until the biggest primary day of the year. Today, we look at Iowa, home to some of the most competitive and interesting races of the cycle. The marquee race is IA GOV where Democrats are defending their long open seat in the nation. Given Iowa's importance in the presidential election (both in the primary stage and the general election), the next governor of Iowa is automatically a national figure, be it as a potential running mate or as a kingmaker for a future president.

The Republicans are united behind Jim Nussle, who has to hope that his first name remains "Jim" and not "Congressman" throughout the fall campaign. Nussle has a ton of campaign talent but the baggage of the Republican Congress is going to be heavy.

The Democratic primary is essentially down to two candidates, Sec/State Chet Culver, son of ex-IA Sen. John Culver, and ex-Rep. Mike Blouin who hasn't run for elective office in nearly 20 years. There is a third candidate, Ed Fallon, who has shown surprising grassroots strength but just doesn't have the money to close.

The Des Moines Democratic establishment basically recruited Blouin into the race, fearing that Culver didn't have the graviitas to beat Nussle. While outgoing Gov. Tom Vilsack publicly denies showing any favortism toward Blouin, the Culver folks believe the speculation and, frankly, there's plenty of circumstantial evidence to back it up.

Blouin's fundraising got off to a slow start and given the name I.D. disadvantage he had, that wasn't a good sign. Blouin needs to be outspending Culver almost 2-1 to make up the gap, something he probably won't be able to do. The Des Moines Register endorsement can actually matter in a Dem primary and Blouin nabbed it. Expect this primary to be closer than polls have shown but consider Culver the favorite.

Two other very hot races in IA are in the state's 1st CD where both parties have primaries to decide who will face off in the race to replace Nussle. The 1st CD is a Democratic district that Nussle has somehow figured out how to hold. Both party primaries have forced the candidates to appeal to their respective bases which is probably more of a problem for the Republicans in the fall than the Democrats.

Some questions that could be answered this time next week:
-- Is Vilsack's political standing hurt a bit in the state if Blouin doesn't beat Culver? What does that mean for Vilsack's presidential prospects, particularly if Culver ends up as governor? The one WH '08er who has given Culver the most love is John Edwards.
-- Will the GOP nominee in IA 01 be too conservative to win in November? The one saving grace for House Republicans when it comes to Iowa is Democrat Leonard Boswell. He's probably the most vulnerable Democratic House incumbent in the country. The Republicans could lose IA 01 and still break even in the state if Republican Jeff Lamberti is as strong as he looks right now in IA 03. [CHUCK TODD]

If you want to know what the two MD GOV Dems think their rival’s biggest Achilles heal is, look no further than two press releases we received within a minute of each other today:

2:58 pm: Mongtomery Co. Exec. Doug Duncan announces event in Baltimore to discuss city schools

2:59 pm: Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley announces event in Montgomery County discussing "sustainable growth"

As we mourn the (professional) departure of one legendary political journalist today, we thought it may be a good time to highlight another renowned Boy on the Bus who has moved on to greener (and tastier) pastures.

Does any other reporter have a better beat than that of one R.W. "Johnny" Apple Jr?

For decades a reporter and editor at the NYT, Apple is now enjoying his retirement years by travelling the country and world with his wife, Betsey, sampling the sort of cuisine not often found at the Hotel Ft. Des Moines or Wayfarer. And, best of all for Apple, he gets paid by the Times to do it.

His distinctly Apple'ian prose hasn't changed, only now he is devoting his literary gifts to shrimp'n'grits instead of pols'n'polls.

Or, in today's paper, the state of ice cream in Texas.

Now aren't you glad we brought up ice cream on a day like today?

Mitt Romney was on FNC's "Your World" yesterday to talk about his recent Iraq trip and this highlight stood out from the blue-state GOP governor who is trying to win over conservatives: "The mainstream media, with the exception, perhaps, of Fox, is going to point out the bad news and is going to point out the bombings, without having a fair and balanced assessment of what is going on."

Will Romney say folks have an "Eye on America" when he goes on CBS or will he tell ABC that more Iraqis get their news from America than any other source?"

Min Leader Nancy Pelosi on Speaker Hastert becoming the longest-serving GOP Speaker.

Pelosi:

"I salute Speaker Hastert for reaching this milestone - it is a testament to his leadership within the Republican Conference and the halls of Congress.

"Dennis Hastert began his career as a teacher and coach; he now serves the people of Illinois and America. While we often disagree on issues, we agree on the importance of public service - the kind of public service that has been the hallmark of his career, whether in a classroom or on the House floor.

"In Congress, we all hold the title 'honorable' by virtue of our office; Dennis Hastert holds it by virtue of his character. I salute him for his service to our nation and look forward to many future opportunities to work together."

Guess she does not buy the ABC report, either.

Slow is as slow does on the cable channels.

"Frontline" examined the history AIDS, cable focused on what happened with the Marines at Haditha, Iraq.

"Hardball" focused on the incident on Haditha. It was the lead story on "Countdown." Retired Gen. Wesley Clark discussed it on the "O'Reilly Factor." Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) talked about it on the "Situation Room," "AC 360" and "PZ Now."

And it's been one-year since Natalee Holloway disappeared, which garnered a lot of cable coverage.

The NH Dem Convo begins 6/3 at St. Anselm College, which is just outside Manchester. Two WH '08ers will be participating: Mark Warner (lunch speaker) and Russ Feingold (breakfast gabber). Here's the entire sked, per the party:

*** THE FOLLOWING EVENTS ARE OPEN TO THE PRESS ***

8:30 AM -- Convention Kick-Off Breakfast with Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) (DAVISON HALL)

10:00 AM -- Pledge of Allegiance, Welcome and Introduction by Kathy Sullivan(CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

10:05 AM -- Awards Presentation by Convention Co-Chairs Sen. Lou D'Allesandro and Maggie Hassan (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

10:15 AM -- Remarks by Gov. John Lynch (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

10:30 AM -- Remarks by 2005 NH Federal Candidates(CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM):
Rep. Jim Craig - U.S. Congress 1st District Gary Dodds - U.S. Congress 1st District Carol Shea Porter - U.S. Congress 1st District Rep. Peter Sullivan - U.S. Congress 1st District Paul Hodes - U.S. Congress 2nd District

11:00 AM -- Report of the Credential Committee, Ray Buckley (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

11:03 AM -- Report of the Rules Committee, Finis Williams (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

11:07 AM -- Report of the Resolutions Committee, Rep. Jane Clemons (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

12:00 PM -- Blue State/Blue Plate Lunch with Governor Mark Warner (D-VA)(DAVISON HALL)

1:10 PM - Continuation of Resolutions Committee Report (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

1:40 PM -- Report of the Platform Committee, Mike Atkins and Deb Reynolds (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

2:40 PM -- Conclusion and Wrap-Up, Kathy Sullivan (CARR CENTER GYMNASIUM)

One week from today is the midterm cycle's version of "Super Tuesday," where voters in 8 states will be heading to the polls in every time zone in the lower 48 to pick nominees for SEN, GOV and the House. There will be a lot to learn for many. Each day between now and Super Midterm Tuesday, we'll be previewing a state and offering up questions we hope to have answered by this time next Wednesday.

First up -- Alabama.

One word sums up this state for us: disappointment. A year ago, we thought the Roy Moore-Bob Riley AL GOV GOP primary would be one for the history books. Instead, Moore's turned out to be a dud candidate, sort of a one-trick pony. On the Democratic side, we've found the attempt by ex-Gov. Don Siegelman to use his trial as a political tool to attack Riley amusing. Is this really some sort of Riley witch hunt against Siegelman or is Siegelman hoping to use his campaign as a way to convince the jury that the charges against him are political in nature? No matter, it appears LG Lucy Baxley is going to coast to the Dem nod.

Our questions:
-- What is the hidden Moore vote? Can he crack 40% and show us that the Southern religious right is still a powerful force?
-- Is there a hidden anti-woman vote, making Baxley's attempt at becoming Alabama's first woman GOV not married to George Wallace that much steeper? Should Baxley-Siegelman be a nail-biter, I think we'll have our answer.
-- Some key numbers to know: In the '98 Dem GOV primary, approx. 360K Dems particiated in what was a fairly uncompetitive contest. Should Dem turnout be lower than '98, the party may have some serious soul-searching to do. For comparison purposes, the '04 WH Dem primary in AL (which took place in June and featured only Kerry and Kucinich) attracted about 220K Dems to the polls.
-- On the GOP side, the very competitive '02 GOV primary attracted approx. 350K folks to the polls. For comparison purposes, the '00 WH GOP primary sported about 200K GOPers (like the WH Dems in '04, the WH GOP contest was essentially over by the time AL rolled around in '00).
-- Next On Or SMT Radar: Iowa [CHUCK TODD]

If our new web ad rankings are any indication, good political animation reigns supreme. A quick note on our criteria: Select Hotline staffers ranked our Web Ads based on creativity, message and viral potential (the likelihood that it will get sent around the net). If you think your Web Ad can crack the top five, email Shira.

1. Just another reason to Save Yourself for Kinky Friedman.

2. His AG campaign might be defunct, but Subodh Chandra has a winner with his Simpsons spot in the Ohio Attorney General's Race

3. Because Russ Feingold can do no Wrong with internet lefties.

4. Sorry Charlie Crist. It's not our place to decide whether you have any real skeletons in your closet, but someone thinks you have a little secret.

5. This one stays in the Top Five from the last time we pulled rank because it's one of the more original party ads of ‘06. And the direct quote from Biden is priceless [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

The SC GOP has made it very clear that they don't like all this encroaching on to their '08 turf. This afternoon, the state party announced that if any other southern state attempts to even share the same day as the South Carolina WH GOP primary, they'll move up their primary, even if it costs them delegates to the 2008 RNC convention. As SC GOP exec. dir. Scott Malyerck tells us, the state party's new motto for the '08 primary is "first and solo in the south." The threat SC GOPers fear the most is from FL, which is making noises about moving up its WH primary. AL and AR are two other old Confederacy states who want to share in SC's limelight.

There's a domino effect if South Carolina moves out of the approved February RNC window because New Hampshire's law says there has to be 7 days in between its primary and the next like-minded event. And, of course, Iowa needs to be 8 days before New Hampshire. How long before there are realistic plans for Iowa to hold its caucuses in the middle of December.

SC GOPers don't need to be 7 days ahead of anyone, just one day will do, or more likely four days as the party has held its primary on a Saturday in presidential cycles past. [CHUCK TODD]

Rep. Chris Shays' (R-CT 04) comments on immigration last week could be a warning sign for candidates far from the border. He said that, after hearing from constituents, he's taken a more hard-line stance on border security. What's notable is that Shays represents a culturally liberal, affluent Connecticut suburb -- a district where immigration hasn't been a top issue.

Until recently, conventional wisdom held that GOPers would be best-served nominating candidates with more moderate views on border security. Under that logic, immigration hardliner Randy Graf would jeopardize GOPers' ability to hold onto AZ 08. Shays' statement indicates the CW on border security may be changing. In IA 01 immigration is the dominant theme in the GOP primary, but Dems have barely addressed the issue. Could some Dems find themselves vulnerable if they fail to talk tough on immigration? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Check out some of these comments from not just Texas Republicans, but Texas Republican activists and delegates to their party's state convention.

Apologies for the late posting today--we encounted an issue with
the new blog server and it was only recently resolved.

More new posts coming soon...

[AMC Blogmaster]

It was only a matter of time that the perils of being in the nat'l party leadership would starting taking its toll on Harry Reid back home in NV. His job rating is under 50%, according to a new Research 2000 poll, conducted for the Reno Gazette Journal and KRNV-TV. Some more highlights:

-- 48% of Nevadans approve of the job Reid's doing compared to 41% disapprove. OK, not horrible. But these are the best numbers in this poll.
-- The pollster added this question: "Do the Democrats under Harry Reid's leadership have a workable agenda, or not?" 35% of state voters answered "yes" and 43% said "no," including 40% of indies. This means there are a chunk of NV voters who approve of the job Reid's doing as a senator but don't think he's helped the party develop a "workable agenda."
-- And then there's this question: "Does Harry Reid possess the leadership qualities to guide the Democrats to gain control of the Senate in 2006." 36% said "yes" and 46% said "no," including 20% of Dems and 44% of indies. Now, it's possible some of these Dems who don't view Reid as having the right "leadership qualities" could be simply pessimistic about the nat'l party's chances. Still, it's a result that has to be somewhat depressing to Reid partisans.

Poll numbers like this put Reid in a box. While he may be doing things that the nat'l party desperately needs done (i.e., make Senate GOPers look like they can't govern), his reputation with home-state voters as a middle-of-the-road Red-state Dem is eroding. If this storyline seems familiar, it is. It's exactly what happened to Tom Daschle. There's no perfect answer. For Reid, becoming majority leader might actually help change the minds of some NV voters who will start enjoying the fruits of Reid's power. It's not easy being a party leader who represents a swing state because by nature of the leadership position, you look partisan. And in some of these states, partisanship doesn't sit well with swing voters. If Reid's tenure as Senate Dem leader ends the same way Daschle's tenure does, it could mean that a "red state" Dem won't be picked as leader for a long time. Being personally safe politically may become a necessary job requirement. [CHUCK TODD]

Darn you, On Call readers.

Your supportive traffic forced us to migrate to a new blog server.

It'll take a few days for the propagation thingy to propagate, so bear with us. Save your comments for next Tuesday.

Meanwhile, check out the latest episode of Hotline TV.

Our editors pick the six Senate races you must know about, tell you which six House races could make a difference, point out the GOV races, in play, and cover which races are simply overrated before we breeze through the fastest two minutes on the web.

Occasionally, a Hotline story slips through the cracks of our production system.

Fortunately, On Call is there to pick it up. After the jump: Hotline coverage of yesterday's mea culpa-filled joint Iraq presser.

Word just in from a staffer stuck in Rayburn: The emergency audio systems ("annunciators" in Hill parlance) in cong. offices have just alerted those in Rayburn that they are free to leave their office.

Here is the message from the USCP:

The Capitol Police have completed the search of the Rayburn Building and declared the building safe for normal activities.

All persons in the Rayburn Building may resume their respective routines and are able to move about freely, retrieve their cars from the garage, etc.

The patience displayed by those whose movement was restricted for this extended period was commendable and the Capitol Police express their most sincere appreciation to all concerned for their understanding.

Sent on: 05/26/2006 15:17:42

Ex-TX LG/Austin lobbyist/ '04 WH campaign bit player/new author Ben Barnes (D) guested on one of the Post's online chats.

This Q&A jumped out at us:

Washington, D.C.: Mr. Barnes -

I glanced at your book in a bookstore the other day, and according to the flap, John Connally supposedly saved George Bush Sr.'s career. I never heard of that -- it seems unlikely. What's that about?

Ben Barnes: I was present when Richard Nixon called John Connally in 1970 to offer him the Secretary of the Treasury position. Bush had just lost his second campaign for US Senate, and was still the most visible Republican in Texas. Connally was a Democrat, and he told Nixon it would be a mistake to appoint him to a high position unless he appointed Bush to something first. Nixon called back and said he'd appoint Bush to be the UN ambassador. That revitalized Bush's political career, and he went on to move up in the political world.

RNC senior adviser/BC04 senior strategist/Ron Fournier co-author Matthew Dowd urges Republican Nat'l Committee members to favor a "comprehensive" solution to immigration, which the public believes is is "unifying -- not polarizing."

Dowd: "Furthermore, majorities of Hispanics back it. Therefore, it is imperative for the Republican Party to talk about immigration effectively and comprehensively and demonstrate leadership on this vital issue as we move toward the mid-term elections."

Dowd's memo says that an internal RNC poll conducted by Jan Van Louhuzen finds that "pverwhelming support exists for a temporary worker program. 80% of all voters, 83% of Republicans, and 79% of self-identified conservatives support a temporary worker program as long as immigrants pay taxes and obey the law."

More, from the RNC internal poll: "When voters are given the choice of other immigration proposals, strengthening enforcement with a tamper-proof identity card (89% among all voters, 93% among GOP), various wordings of a temporary worker program (the highest at 85% among all voters, 86% among GOP), and sending National Guard troops to the border (63% among all voters, 84% among GOP) score the highest among both all voters and Republican voters."

Also: "Voters don't consider granting legal status to those already here amnesty."

Dowd concludes: "Finally, when discussing immigration reform, tone and language are extremely important. To continue to grow the party, we must conduct this debate with civility and respect for our nation's heritage -- as the President has said, we are both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants. That is why the American people favor a balanced plan that secures the border, improves enforcement, enhances immigration avenues AND deals compassionately and equitably with those who are already here."

In a rather headed discussion with KQV-AM's P.J. Maloney, Sen. Rick Santorum (R) maintains his belief (reported in print over the last week) that Dem operatives likely trespassed onto his Penn Hills property.

Listen here.

"PJ, stop. PJ, stop. Common sense dictates the guy trespassed on my proprerty and looked in my window. Quit making excuses for him, PJ."

MSNBC reports USCP speculation that the initial gunfire-like sounds may have come from an elevator mechanic who was loudly performing his mechanic functions.

Capitol Police spokesperson Kim Schneider had nothing new to report, really.

"What the Capitol Police are doing is ensuring everyone who is in the Rayburn building belongs in the Rayburn building."

From a Congressional staffer:

"They just searched our office. They had guns drawn, but not raised. They were very professional, checked our ids and made sure we were ok."

David All, spokesperson for Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), just sent out the following:

"This morning, a member of Congressman Kingston's staff was in the House Staff Gym when the Rayburn House Office Building was put under lockdown due to alleged gun shots. Under guidance of law enforcement officials, the staffer was taken via ambulance to the hospital. She was not injured or shot, just a little shaken up under the circumstances.

"We have been in contact with our colleague and she is doing well.

"Congressman Kingston is aware of the situation. He has encouraged us to remain cooperative with the Capitol Police as they work to resolve this situation."

The House Staff Gym is located on the second floor of the parking garage of the Rayburn House Office Building which is five floors below Congressman Kingston's office.

USCP have commenced their office-to-office search, and, according to one House staffer, are banging loudly before entering with guns' drawn.

A press sec. for Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) says Saxton was among those who heard the shots, per MSNBC.

The person taken out of Rayburn on a gurney was not injured.

According to a colleague, this person, who is a staff member to a Republican office holder, had a blood pressure reading taken by a police officer.

The officer suggested medical treatment as a precuation.

Note: the Hotline removed sensitive security information from this e-mail.

From the USCP:

The Capitol Police continue to investigate the report of gunfire in the Rayburn HOB. 1. If you have not done so, lock your office doors. 2. The Capitol Police will soon commence a search of the Rayburn HOB floor by floor. 3. During the search, the police officers {REDACTED] , announce [REDACTED], [REDACTED] 4. [ONE SENTENCE REDACTED] cooperate with all police instructions. 5. All occupants should remain in their offices until the Capitol Police announce that it is safe to exit. 6. If there are special concerns about the identity of the person knocking on your door and you need to verify their identity, call (202) 224-XXXX.

Could the gym witnesses have seen a police officer wearing street clothes? That's what investigators are thinking...

A senior law enforcement official tells CNN that two women exited one of the two Rayburn gyms in Room B-319 and reported a man hiding there with a gun. That has prompted the USCP to once again shut down the Capitol Building.

Sgt. Kimberly Schneider : "I don't have any suspect information at this time. Our searches have turned up several staff members in the building. We have not gotten any reports of being captured or being arressted. We have no reports of any injuries at this time."

Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) ended speculation over his future, announcing in Fairbanks this morning that he will indeed seek a new term. Lingering controversy over Murkowski's appointing his daughter to his Senate seat, and recent debate over a new pipeline deal had led some to question whether he'd run again. "Voters will have a chance to look at the record and then determine what they want for the future," AK GOP chair Randy Ruedrich tells Hotline.

Ruedrich, who received word from the gov. 5/25, says that the party leadership will remain neutral in the primary. '02 LG candidate/ex-Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin (R) and ex-State Sen. John Binkley (R) had announced they would run regardless of Murkowski's decision. "It will give the voters of Alaska a chance to pick a Republian nominee that we can support in the November election," Ruedrich says. "This is a very important election for Alaska." The announcement comes just days before the 6/1 filing deadline. The Republican primary is 8/22. [MIKE MEMOLI]

Fox News reports that "Capitol Hill police have caught a man with a gun." Two women apparently existed the Rayburn gym and told police that a man was hiding in there with a gun.

Gov. Frank Murkowski (R-AK) will run for re-election, Republican sources tell the Hotline.

Here.

The US Captiol Police are continuing to investigate the report of gunshots in the Rayburn House Office Building. The Rayburn Building and garages are shut down at this time. The Longworth and Cannon Office Buildings and other garages are not affected. The Capitol Building is open for above ground access but the tunnels remain closed. As soon as the police have completed clearing the garage levels, they will begin search the remainder of the Rayburn Building beginning on the top floor and working down.

As a precaution, ambulances are waiting outside Rayburn to treat the injured -- should there be any injuries.

Fox News reports that the FBI's joint terrorism task force is also on the scene.

Per the USCP:

At this time the Capitol Building is opened. Traffic from the Capitol to the Rayburn House Office Building remains closed.

CNN's Ted Barrett says that the source of information about the shots was one staff member who heard multiple sounds similar to gunshots on the G-3 level.

And other House office buildings are functioning.

The House side of the Capitol is locked down, but the Senate side remains functional.

Capitol Police officers scouring the Rayburn building and garage have found nothing, per CNN.

Members and staffs in Rayburn are locked in their offices.

Per a Congressional aide: "The loud speakers have told us to stay sheltered and not roam the building."

There is a firing range near the basement garage of the Rayburn building that's used by the U.S. Capitol Police.

Here's the bulletin from the Capitol Police

This is a message from the U.S. Capitol Police

1. If you are in the Rayburn HOB then Shelter in Place. Quickly move
into the nearest interior office space or interior hallway and away from

windows. The Capitol Police are investigating reports of gunfire in the Rayburn HOB.
2. If nearby, grab Go-Kits and personal belongings.
3. Close doors behind you, but do not lock.
4. Remain calm.
5. Await further instructions. Do not leave the building.

Please do not respond to this e-mail. This mailbox is unattended. End of message.

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

The 800-lb. gorilla in some GOP circles is Rep. Tom Davis (R), who is said to be considering a statewide bid. Other GOPers, particularly those with ties to Southern VA, think that's ridiculous, and point to one of our '03 stars, the chair of the Prince William Co. Board, and his poor performance in the '05 LG primary as proof that NoVA GOPers can't win a primary. NoVA's growing, all agree, but only for Dems. GOPers need to get their primary votes elsewhere. Dems, meanwhile, have exploited the nat'l trend this year and won several state legislative special elections in districts that were previously held by GOPers. They hope their early success, and their very good '05, translates into success down the road. {REID WILSON]

• Atty Steve Baril (R): After losing a bid for AG in '05, "some people will keep him on the list" for future races, but others say "his time has passed." A good fundraiser, but he couldn't get traction in NoVA or among moderates.
• Del. Dick Black (R): Lost bid for re-election in '05, "a pretty bruising defeat."
• LG Bill Bolling (R): A State Sen when we first met him, Bolling won the LG race in '05 and "has a very good shot at being the next" Gov.
• Prince William Co. Board Chair Sean Connaughton: He lost a primary bid for LG in '05, but remains a likely candidate for one of top two offices. "He'd like to" make another bid, say some. Others disagree: "He had his one shot. He blew it."
• State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R): Wife of Rep. Tom Davis (R), she's "always talked about as a potential candidate for LG." "Count her on the short list."
• Del. Chris Jones (R): After voting for tax increases, he lost his appointment to the state health care commission in retaliation. "He's done."
• AG Bob McDonnell (R): The former State Del. won his race in '05 by a hair. He's a likely Gov candidate in '09. "A good candidate."
• Del. Chris Saxman (R): Still in the House. "One of the younger, more conservative members." "Others consider him an up-and-comer in the party."
• Ex-NASCAR exec. Kevin Triplett (R): Lost to Boucher. "A great guy," but he "wouldn't a real player at the current time."
• Del. Kenneth Alexander (D): Still in the House, a young guy
• Secretary of Administration ex-Del. Viola Baskerville (D): Lost LG nom, appointed Sec Admin for Kaine
• State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D): Lost AG. He's "one of the best fighters we got." "He'll be seen again in the future."
• Del. Brian Moran (D): "Brian is awesome." He's the caucus leader. "He's definitely going to run statewide or for Congress."
• Ex-Del. Chap Petersen (D): Lost LG. "We'll see him again in a statewide race," and has "a very, very bright future."

• US Atty John Brownlee (R): The US Atty for the Western district comes from GOP voter-rich Roanoke. "He's going to be a little bit different" from other downballot candidates in '09. He'll have to introduce himself to GOP activists, though.
• State Sen. Jay O'Brien (R): From the high-priority Fairfax Co.-based exurbs, he may run for LG or Rep. Davis' VA 11 seat. Considered one of the more conservative members of the Sen.
• Ex-State Del. Paul Harris (R): The first black GOPer elected in VA in a long time, he went on to serve in Pres. Bush's DoJ and is now a lobbyist for Raytheon. He's "very well-known among party activists," continues to travel the rubber chicken circuit and is "someone who could run for either downticket spot next time around."
• State Sen. Mark Obenshain (R): The brother of the current VA GOP chair, he's a possible AG candidate in '09. He's "very charismatic."
• State Sen. Mark Herring (D): Just won special election in Loudon Co., a traditional GOP area. "He will move up somewhere."
• Sec/Finance Jody Wagner (D): "A very sharp and hard-working person." Lost to then-Rep. Ed Schrock (R) in heavily GOP VA 02 by just 7500 votes.
• Fairfax Co. Board Chair Gerry Connolly (D): "He's established" and could make a strong bid for Rep. Davis' VA 11 seat.
• State Del. David Englin (D): Ran an insurgent race against a group of established Dems in Fairfax Co. and beat them all.

Who needs to air a presser when you can see a member of the Bush family on "Access Hollywood?"

The fallout from the Pres. Bush/PM Tony Blair presser:

FNC's Hume: "The White House made quite an effort to get coverage for this event, staging it when they did, have it be an hour length, full-dress news conference. Once sensed that the reason was, in part at least to bring out Tony Blair."

CNN's Crowley: "What you saw here tonight is precisely what history will record, that these are two men who started this war together, basically, and who stuck with it, and are sticking with it now, saying, we cannot leave."

FNC's Barnes: "I thought this was a buck up press conference, trying to buck up America, buck up England."

CNN's J. King: "The point both of these leaders wanted to make was, they're confident now that, finally, Iraq now has a government that will work, that will stabilize the country and eventually allow them to bring the troops home."

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "I think a lot people watching tonight, the experts thought, as they watched President Bush and Prime Minister Blair, there was the sense of an end of an era, both people now fading."

Bush was asked a "mistakes" question from a British reporter and the president's response garnered a lot of punditry. Here's what Bush said: "Saying, 'Bring it on'; kind of tough talk, you know, that sent the wrong signal to people. I learned some lessons about expressing myself maybe in a little more sophisticated manner, you know. 'Wanted, dead or alive;' that kind of talk. I think in certain parts of the world it was misinterpreted. And so I learned from that. And, you know, I think the biggest mistake that's happened so far, at least from our country's involvement in Iraq, is Abu Ghraib. We've been paying for that for a long period of time."

Newsweek's Wolffe, on Bush's answer when asked about mistakes made: "It is very rehearsed, everything from the mannerisms you saw, the upwards glance up at the ceiling for inspiration. And for me, the big giveaway was at the end of that answer -- I don't know if you could see it on camera -- but the president flashed a big grin to those of us sitting in the front rows. It didn't seem that he was quite as contrite as his performance."

NBC's Gregory: "I think he was prepared to show some vulnerability here in areas where he felt comfortable. And I also don't think that you can say this was a window into his thinking that there was a deeper mistake."

MSNBC's Scarborough, on Bush's mistake admitting: "In sitcom lore, it would be like reminiscent of Fonzy admitting that he was wrong to Ritchie Cunningham."

NO LOVE FOR JOE

DNC Chair Howard Dean played "Hardball."

On Rep. William Jefferson (D-LA): "I think that Leader Pelosi has made it very clear that she thinks that the congressman ought to step aside from the Ways and Means Committee. I think we do have to understand that he's not indicted. If that happens, I think he's going to have more serious troubles. But we're going to be tough on everybody. We're not just going to be tough on Republicans."

On Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT): "I do not get involved in primaries. I'm at the chair of the Democratic National Committee. Our rule says that we do not get involved in primaries and I'm not getting involved with that one."

More: "We never endorsed any incumbents that are challenged in the primary, even incumbent Democrats. We have stayed out of primaries, that's the job of the DNC. We don't get involved in primaries. We're there to build the party. It's not up to us to decide which Democrat, we just want to make darn sure there is a Democrat."

On the New York Times' piece on the Clintons marriage: "That's just gossip and I would expect that to be in the New York Post, not the New York Times" (MSNBC, 5/25).

RUMMY AND CONDI DON'T SHARE TV TASTES

Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld was on "LKL" last night.

On VP Cheney: "I used to think of him as a promising young man when I hired him."

Asked if he watches "American Idol": "Heck, no!" (CNN, 5/25). [EMILY GOODIN]

Mike Krempasky has their talking points. (The real ones.)

What the heck is Alan Patricof, the finance chair of Sen. Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign, doing as a featured blogger on HuffingtonPost.com?

HuffPost, after all, is the home for Hollywood liberal elite who are quite skeptical, to say the least, of Clinton's desirability as a candidate. (Check out this helpful Huffpost history.)

And should Hillary Clinton run for president, Patricof will likely be near the apex of her national finance team.

It could simply be that Patricof is an amiable guy. For this New York Times story on the Clinton's marriage, Patricof was one of the few genuine Clinton friends who agreed to be quoted on the record. And he divulged some tasty info about Clinton fundraising practices, to boot!

Patricof spends his day as co-founder of a very successful venture capital firm, Patricof and Co. (It's now Apax Partners.). For an amusing story about Patricof and the Internet, read this. [MARC AMBINDER]

Elizabeth Vargas, in the fourth story of World News Tonight, spoke of a "storm of reaction" about Brian Ross's report, which characterized as stemming from sources who told Ross that Dennis Hastert "was among those whose dealings with Jack Abramoff the FBI has been looking into."

Ross said that DoJ sources have confirmed to him that:

--that the FBI interrogation of Abramoff included specific and repeated questions about his relationship with Hastert and other membrs of Congress
--that the FBI has been looking to the letter Ross mentioned last night

Ross ended with this: sources tell him that "it could well turn out that Hastert did nothing unlawful."

Here's the link to the ABCNews.com write up of Ross's latest report.

Here's the link to what Ross originally said last night.

The formal executive order, after the jump.

THE WHITE HOUS

Office of the Press Secretary

­

For Immediate Release May 25, 2006

May 25, 2006

MEMORANDUM FOR THE ATTORNEY GENERAL

THE SOLICITOR GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES

SUBJECT: Handling of Materials Held by the Department of

Justice Following Execution of a Search Warrant

After taking appropriate account of the respective constitutional functions of the House of Representatives and of the executive branch, including important law enforcement interests, the protections afforded those functions under the Constitution, and the need for comity between the executive and legislative branches in the service of the American people, I direct that, with respect to the materials taken pursuant to the warrant dated May 18, 2006, and captioned "In the Matter of the Search of Rayburn House Office Building Room Number 2113," including any copies thereof or items derived in whole or in part therefrom:

(1) The Attorney General, acting through the Solicitor General of the United States who shall for this purpose be subject to no supervision by any officer of the Department of Justice other than the Attorney General, shall (a) preserve and seal the materials, (b) ensure that no use is made of the materials, and (c) ensure that no person has access to the materials, except that Office of the Solicitor General personnel under the direct supervision of the Solicitor General may have the minimum physical access to the materials essential to the preservation of the materials.

(2) The Attorney General shall endeavor, and the House of Representatives is respectfully encouraged to endeavor, to resolve any issues relating to the materials through discussions between them in good faith and with mutual institutional respect and, if it should prove necessary after exhaustion of such discussions, through appropriate proceedings in the courts of the United States.

The Attorney General shall keep me informed of discussions to which this memorandum refers and proceedings relating to the materials. This memorandum shall expire on July 9, 2006.

GEORGE W. BUSH

cc: The Speaker of the House of Representatives

Maj. Leader John Boehner sent his pessimistic conference a pre-Memorial Day memo today urging them to buck up, square their shoulders, and return home proud of their Republican-ness.

Boehner writes that House Republicans "have come together" and
"taken significant steps forward" in "advancing an ambitious agenda for the American people." Republicans "are on the right side of the issues that the American people care about."

Dems' "angry, divisive rhetoric" is designed to "drive us apart" and "take the focus off their lack of an agenda."

Boehner next presents the GOP's vision statement: "We will promote the dignity and future of every individual by building a free society under a limited, accountable government that protects our liberty, security, and prosperity for a brighter American Dream."

You can read the rest of the memo after the jump, but here's what he says about border security and immigration.

The contrast between the two parties could not be greater on this issue. Democrats have constantly advocated troubling policies that encourage open borders and invite more and more illegal immigrants in addition to the estimated 10-12 million illegal immigrants that are already here.

With the Senate on the verge of passing a bill, it's important that we seek areas of common ground, while always stressing the most important priority for the American people is to secure our borders and stop illegal immigration. We can't underestimate the challenges that lie ahead of us. The American people want action, and we should be committed to working with our members of the Conference to see if we can find agreement on a responsible bill.

On September 29, 2003, three days after it became known that the CIA had asked the Justice Department to investigate who leaked the name of covert CIA officer Valerie Plame, columnist Robert Novak telephoned White House senior adviser Karl Rove to assure Rove that he would protect him from being harmed by the investigation, according to people with firsthand knowledge of the federal grand jury testimony of both men. More from National Journal's Murray Waas.

Not all in the House GOP Conference are happy about their Speaker's effort to flex co-equal congressional muscle.

At an afternoon meeting of the Conference where Hastert outlined Pres Bush's stopgap intervention, we hear from a House source that multiple members stood up to say, in essence, "we are on the wrong side of this issue."

The feeling is that the public will miss the weighty Constitutional questions at stake and only see DC politicians defending their own. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

If Hillary Clinton has such a commanding lead in the "invisible" '08 Democratic primary, why does the field of candidates continue to grow? Could it be, asks Chuck Todd, that it's now or never for most of her potential challengers.

Read On The Trail.

Check out our latest
White House 2008 Rankings

Clinton (D) continues to float atop the sea Democratic hopefuls (even giving a series of policy speeches), but there's no hint of other candidates rolling over yet either (see "On The Trail" for more on that topic). In fact, a new but familiar face appears in our Democratic top tier this month. As for Republicans, there's still John McCain and, well, John McCain.

These rankings are based on a number of factors, including: organization, money, buzz and polling. The two candidates in our two top spots are the candidates who are doing well in all four attributes. As always, these rankings are done in coordination with Hotline Associate Editor Marc Ambinder, who should be considered the co-author of the text.

Statement release jointly by Speaker Hastert and Min Leader Pelosi:

"Today, we are directing the House Counsel to begin negotiations with the Department of Justice regarding the protocols and procedures to be followed in connection with evidence of criminal conduct that might exist in the offices of Members."

Kathy Lash has joined Mark Warner's Forward Together PAC as a political deputy, working with Warner's top political strategist, Mame Reiley.

Lash, married to ex-Dean mgr Joe Trippi, has worked on many Virginia-based congressional campaigns and political staffs.

In 1990, Lash worked for Reiley when Reiley managed Jim Moran (D-VA)'s come-from-behind defeat of incumbent Rep. Stan Parris (R) in VA 08.

We asked Trippi whether we should read anything into Lash's new gig.

He said no. "I think the world of Mark, but I'm not signed up with any presidential candidate at this point." [MARC AMBINDER]

You know things are bad when the GOP is losing support not just among Dems (hardly a shocker), but among fellow GOPers. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll shows GOPers are less likely now to re-elect their current member of Congress then they have ever been in this poll with only 31% favoring their incumbent. Now looking at the Dem side, the number is even lower (26%), but keep in mind the obvious point here -- Dems are not the majority.

And, as a tie breaker, indies are siding with Dems on this one with a plurality looking for a fresh face in Congress (29%) as opposed to the anemic 19% who favor the status quo.

So what happened to make the GOP outlook for the midterms so grim? A shorter list would be what didn't happen. Pres. Bush needs to lay low. It seems in the eyes of the electorate he can do no right. This poll marks yet another all time low for Bush -- a term that has been used so often it has lost all meaning. The one silver lining for the Bush admin. is that neither the POTUS or VP never have to face the wrath of the voters again. Not true for the rest of the party. But Dems should hold off on the bubbly. This only makes it theirs to lose.

In a split sample question, 9% of regis. voters don't agree with what the Dems are doing, as opposed to 17% of GOPers in sample A. That switches to 7% and 19% respectively in sample B. But that begs the question of who exactly knows what the Dems are up to? Who among the electorate could explain what their positions are as we rapidly approach the midterms? Is this a question for the next Diageo/Hotline poll? [AOIFE MCCARTHY]

David Westin
George Stephanopoulos
Brain Ross

ABC News
7 West 66th St.
New York, NY 10023

RE: False Story Regarding Justice Department Investigation

Dear Mr. Westin, Stephanopoulos, and Mr. Ross:

At 7:25 p.m., the Statement of the Department of Justice confirmed:
"Speaker Hastert is not under investigation by the Justice Department."

At 10:21 p.m., you wrote:

"Whether they like it or not, members of Congress, including Hastert, are under investigation," on federal official said tonight."

This statement is false, and your republication of it after actual knowledge of its falsity constitutes libel and defamation. ABC News' continued publication of this false information, after having actual knowledge of its falsity, evidences a specific and malicious intent to injure and damage Speaker Hastert's reputation by continued repetition of a known falsehood.

We will take any and all actions necessary to rectify the harm ABC has caused and to hold those at ABC responsible for their conduct.

Please advise regarding who will accept service of process to remedy this intentional falsehood.

Very truly yours,

J. Randolph Evans
Stefan C. Passantino
Counsel to Speaker J. Dennis Hastert

Check out this faxed statement that Dep AG Paul McNulty released last night in support of Speaker/Coach Hastert. Our favorite part is the fax stamp at the top of the document. Note the hour it was sent over from "DOJ ODAG" to Denny's press shop.

Only to have been a fly on the wall (or on Bonjean's phone)in the Capitol for a few hours last night.

At least some of your Hotline editors are not American Idol fans and couldn't name the two finalists (although Katherine McPhee is apparently a registered Democrat.)

We spent the evening looking at '08 (potential) presidential candidate PAC filings for clues about strategy. As always, PoliticalMoneyLine.com made our evening much more pleasant.

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC continues to do what PACs generally are supposed to do. The PAC wrote ten checks to state parties at $5K a pop, made at least two dozen direct donations to candidates running for House and Senate, and sent more than 100 checks to candidates running for governor, or for local offices, or to county Republican parties. Its biggest expense continues to be airplanes, because McCain, in order to get from, say, Liberty University in VA to Utah, flies charter whenever he can. STA has seven paid staff members.

McCain's chief strategist, John Weaver, and longtime adviser Mike Dennehyare paid through a political consulting disbursement. The PAC spent $7,500 to rent "Top Of The Rock" in NYC for a fundraiser. And interestingly, the majority of its April contributions came from Arizonans.

Rudy Giuliani is clearly ramping up his pre-presidential activity. His Solutions America PAC raised nothing -- it has a multimillion dollar fundraiser scheduled for June -- but it spent more in April than in the previous six months combined.

Witness these disbursements, per PoliticalMoneyLine.com:

FUNDRAISING CONSULTANT $25,000
1 PURCHASE COMPUTER EQUIPMENT $21,423
1 COMPLIANCE CONSULTANT $3,750
1 PURCHASE TELECOM EQUIPMENT $2,499
1 RENT $1,717
1 TELECOM CONSULTANT/LEASE PHONES $1,577
1 CONTRACT LABOR-ADMINISTRATIVE WORK $430

Sen. Bill Frist's VOLPAC continues to dig for as many potential donors as possible. It purchased a $32,045 list from Precision List in VA. It spent more than $120K -- almost a third of its entire expenditures -- on direct mail and direct mail postage. VOLPAC paid eight staff directly. Notable contributors include the CEO of Quaker Oats, William Smithburg, and Jeffrey McWaters, the Virginia-based GOP mega-donor and president of Amerigroup.

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's PAC is bi-iig. It spends a lot on staff -- 100K a month. That said, there's a reasonable and appropriate explanation for its size, which is that Warner, unlike, say, Sen. Evan Bayh or Gov. Bill Richardson, no longer has an official staff to perform the rudimentary functions of policy generation and political/schedule planning.

Warner's PAC pays for his communications staff, his policy specialists, his web team and his personal assistants. The PAC paid Peter Hart Research Assoc. $63,000 for "research." Hart (D) helps to poll for the NBC News/WSJ survey. Dem strategist Kenneth Baer's firm received $10K. Baer is helping Warner with speeches. Notable contributions include more than $74K from employees of E-Trade Financial.

Sen. Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriots Fund is growing. It spent $75K on a direct mail solicitation in April and has nine paid staff members. [MARC AMBINDER]

We're no longer "Lost" and "American Idol" has sang its last song, but cable will always be there.

ABC's Ross was on "GMA" this morning to address the controversy surrounding his report on Speaker Denny Hastert: "Despite flat and repeated denials from the Department of Justice, federal law enforcement officials insist to ABC News that the FBI investigation of Capitol Hill corruption has widened to include potentially Speaker of the House Denny Hastert."

More Ross: "Hastert says the story is untrue and has demanded a retraction. Our sources say Hastert is not considered the formal subject or target at this time but that the FBI will soon seek documents from him and other members of Congress, based on information from the convicted lobbyist [Jack] Abramoff. The investigation, of course, is in its very early stages and it's very possible it will turn out there was nothing unlawful about Hastert's relationship with Abramoff" (5/25).

Washington Post's Milbank, on the ABC report: "It is, perhaps, a bit unfair to the speaker, in the sense that something like half the Republican caucus and a large number of Democrats have some ties to Abramoff and his clients through the money chain. Hastert is no exception. ... Hastert's name has not come up at all until now, and we're pretty far down the road here. So it seems pretty plausible, what the Justice Department and the FBI are saying tonight, that this is more of a routine matter" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/24).

AND NOW, WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THOSE WHO WOULD BE PRESIDENT

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was on "LKL." (And made the morning show rounds this a.m.)

Asked about being booed at New School Univ., McCain: "It's unfortunate, because these young people now will have a duller life because they won't listen to the views of those that they disagree with. And that's unfortunate because the whole theme of my speech was interestingly and ironically is that we should strongly disagree with one another."

McCain also said he has not seen Al Gore's movie (CNN, 5/24).

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) was on "Hardball" to talk about immigration. He was also asked about the national anthem debate, taking the opportunity to remind us: "Francis Scott Key composed it in English when we were fighting the English in the War of 1812."

And he was asked about the confederate flag controversy, Allen: "As a kid and in college, yes, I was a maverick anti-establishment and there's certain things that all of us have done when we were kids that may not make much sense 30, 40 years later. As far as all of that's concerned, I looked at the confederate flag and the Virginia flag and the Betsy Ross flag. I like flags, I collected them, it was part of a collection. And it was in my own home."

More: "I didn't look at the confederate flag or anything other than historic or regional pride issue, in Virginia, it's part of the history of Virginia. I do recognize and have grown through the years and recognize that particularly since the confederate flag has been used and appropriated by hate groups, the Klan and others, that for others it means something much different than history or heritage. Or like on the top of the 'Dukes of Hazard' car" (MSNBC, 5/24).

Sec/State Condoleezza Rice was on "Hannity & Colmes" and was asked about the protesters at Boston College. Rice: "I have been a university professor for many years. I've been a university provost at universities and controversy. It's not really a headline. And people were respectful. The crowd was terrific, and there were very few people who wanted to protest. They did so in a way that was not disruptive, and I will defend their right to protest" (FNC, 5/24).

TV GONE WILD

WH spokesperson Tony Snow was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" last night and Lou Dobbs greeted him with this: "I have been blackballed by the White House for about four years now, because I've said things like radical Islamists when referring to the enemies in the war on terror, criticizing many of the president's policies. And I just want to compliment you in your early tenure as press secretary for having the fortitude, the intelligence and the class to break that embargo and come on here and talk."

Snow: "Oh, Lou, don't get me into situations like this" (CNN, 5/24).

And ex-Pres. Jimmy Carter was in the "Situation Room," where Wolf Blitzer congratulated on him and Walter Mondale becoming the longest living ex-pres. and vp. Carter: "All you have to do is live a long life and choose a healthy vice president" (CNN, 5/24).

House GOPers will take to the floor this morning to "Rally Behind Our Speaker," as one staffer for Rep. Lee Terry (R-NE) put it in an email circulated to fellow GOP aides.

The "one-minutes" will be used to "refute the irresponsible, incorrect accusations made [last night] on ABC's Nightly News."

And just to get those partisan juices flowing, the Terry staffer reminded his colleagues:

"Dan Rather tried it and failed."

Look for the red meat to be served up starting at 10 a.m.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

10:21 update:

ABC has gone back to its sources and reconfirmed:

"You guys wrote the story very carefully but they are not reading it very carefully," a senior official said.

Ron Bonjean, Speaker Hastert's comm. dir., issued this statement:

"The ABC News report is absolutely untrue. As confirmed by the Justice Department, 'Speaker Hastert is not under investigation by the Justice Department.' We are demanding a full retraction of the ABC News story. The Speaker's earlier statement issued today accurately reflects the facts regarding this matter."

This is blunt.

From the Department of Justice:

"Speaker Hastert is not under investigation by the Justice Department."

A Democrat who reads NRSC press releases religiously noticed something interesting about a missive sent out today criticizing Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) for having "decided to follow his party leadership" and rejecting the Mitch McConnell national voting photo ID amendment.

"Instead of voting for a sensible measure to require a photo I.D. in order to vote, Senator Nelson decided to follow his party leadership," said NRSC Spokesman Brian Walton. "Reducing voter fraud shouldn't be a partisan issue, but apparently for Ben Nelson it is."

Fair enough.

But joining Nelson in voting against the amendment: Sens. Lincoln Chafee and Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH)

We will reward this Dem with a blind quote: "The Shotgun approach always hits a friend... ask Dick Cheney."

ABC News' Brian Ross reported tonight that
the Jack Abramoff bribery scandal "has led FBI investigators to some of the most powerful members of Congress," namely Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL).

Ross reported that "based on information" obtained by investigators, Hastert is "very much in the mix of the corruption investigation."

Ross and co. say the investigation centers on a letter Hastert wrote to interior sec. Gale Norton blocking a casino on an Indian reservation that would benefit tribes repped by Abramoff. The letter was written after a Signature's fundraiser.

(This bit of info is old news, but if investigators are focusing on it, then many other members who wrote similar letters could be in trouble.)

The report quoted a Hastert spokesman as saying Hastert was not aware he was being scrutinized and had not been asked by DoJ to turn over any information.

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC returned $20K in contributions from Sam and Charles Wyly after the STA finance team learned that the Wylys were under federal investigation for alleged tax evasion.

McCain attended a May 15 fundraiser in Austin, TX co-hosted by the Wyly brothers.

"After the checks were received from Sam and Charles Wyly, it was discovered through the normal vetting process here at Straight Talk America that a federal inquiry is ongoing into the two gentlemen," said STA exec. dir. Craig Goldman in a statement. "Once that was discovered, we have a policy internally not to accept contributions from people in that situation, so the checks were returned."

"And at our request they did not attend the fundraiser in Dallas."

You'll recall that in 2000, the duo spent millions to air ads designed to hurt McCain in early primary states.

Lots of news organizations are pursuing this story, so expect to read the blow-by-blow tomorrow. [MARC AMBINDER]

The DSCC has issued a second release this week attacking ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) in the TN SEN race.

This is somewhat unusual, given that Corker is still fighting to emerge from a hotly-contested primary which won't conclude for another two months.

Could this be an indication that Dems would prefer that Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) ends up facing either ex-Rep. Van Hilleary (R) or ex-Rep. Ed Bryant (R) rather than Corker this fall? Yes.

If nominated, Corker would probably begin a general election campaign in much better financial shape than his GOP rivals, given his head start in fundraising.

And although all 3 candidates refer to themselves as conservatives, Corker is perceived as the moderate of the field and might be better-positioned to appeal to swing voters. Of course, GOPers who oppose Corker would argue that his inability to excite grassroots conservative activists would make him a weaker nominee than the others. In any event, it's also quite possible that the DSCC releases merely indicate they believe Corker WILL win the primary in August and are just hoping to soften him up early. [QUINN MCCORD]

The reaction from Republican strategists: Hey, guys, wasn't Jefferson supposed to help us get rid of the DeLay taint?

The reaction from liberals: Um, so NOW the Democratic leadership pays attention to constitutional violations?

The (possible) reaction from voters: Boy, are these folks out of touch.

(Washington, D.C.) Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert (R-IL) and Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) issued the following statement regarding the Federal Bureau of Investigation's search of a Congressional office:

"No person is above the law, neither the one being investigated nor those conducting the investigation."

"The Justice Department was wrong to seize records from Congressman Jefferson's office in violation of the Constitutional principle of Separation of Powers, the Speech or Debate Clause of the Constitution, and the practice of the last 219 years. These constitutional principles were not designed by the Founding Fathers to place anyone above the law. Rather, they were designed to protect the Congress and the American people from abuses of power, and those principles deserve to be vigorously defended."

"Accordingly, the Justice Department must immediately return the papers it unconstitutionally seized. Once that is done, Congressman Jefferson can and should fully cooperate with the Justice Department's efforts, consistent with his constitutional rights."

"In addition, the Justice Department must immediately cease any further review of the documents it unconstitutionally seized, ensure that those who have reviewed the documents do not divulge their contents to the investigators, and move in Court to vitiate the search warrant."

The strategist in us wonders if leaders should heed the words of Sen. John Warner (R-VA), who warns that Congress "should not set itself apart from citizens

The 6/6 CA 50 runoff between ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) and Francine Busby (D) will test the potency of both immigration and ethics -- two of the main '06 campaign issues.

The DCCC has hammered away at Bilbray in ads over ties to lobbyists. A win or close call by Busby would suggest that ethical missteps could, in fact, play nationally. Or else that the conservative base just isn't that interested in helping elect Republicans.

If Bilbray wins comfortably, he can credit border security. It's been his campaign's dominant theme. One of his ads shows him talking to Border Patrol agents, saying that securing the border "cannot wait another day." Busby, by contrast, prefers a less hawkish proposal. Will GOPers need to toughen ethics reform proposals? Do Dems need to take a firmer position on border security? The runoff results next month will provide some answers.

Here's what makes Republicans nervous about the race, though: the party is fractured, with millionaire Bill Hauf attacking Bilbray on his right flank.

And despite Bilbray's immig. credentials and criticism of Bush on the issue, the San Diego Minutemen endorsed an independent, William Griffith.

Total spending for this compact special election: more than $10 million.

BTW: outside of CA 50, the Golden State won't be hosting many competitive elections in the fall. But term limits in Sacramento are creating tough primaries for many members in "safe" districts:

-- CA 06: State Assemblyman Joe Nation (D), with a base in Marin Co., has raised more than $430K to mount a serious challenge to Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D). He's used the money to air several TV ads -- one attacking Woolsey for lacking legislative accomplishments.

-- CA 11: Liberal ex-Rep. Pete McCloskey (R), who ran against Nixon in '72, is trying to make a comeback against Rep. Richard Pombo (R). This will be more of a referendum over Pombo's ethics than McCloskey's viability. If he fails to win big, Pombo could face a real fight this fall.

-- CA 51: Rep. Bob Filner (D) is only one of three white members to hold majority-Hispanic CDs. State Rep. Juan Vargas (D), trumpeting his ethnic roots, is mounting his third primary challenge against him. (He won 46% against Filner in '96.) But every local Latino organization endorsed Filner. Which will be a more powerful factor for voters: incumbency or ethnicity? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR AND MARC AMBINDER]

"His leadership was critical to the development and passage of our economic plan."

-- ex-Pres. Clinton and Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), in a joint statement on the late Lloyd Bentsen, Los Angeles Times, 5/24

Just released from House Min Leader Nancy Pelosi's office:

May 24, 2006

Congressman William J. Jefferson

2113 Rayburn House Office Building

U.S. House of Representatives

Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Congressman Jefferson:

In the interest of upholding the high ethical standard of the House Democratic Caucus, I am writing to request your immediate resignation from the Ways and Means Committee.

Sincerely,

Nancy Pelosi

Democratic Leader

Consider Republican strategist Bill Pascoe. At some point over the past two decades, he's had his hands in a major race in nearly every state.

His friends say he's a win away from superstardom. His detractors (Pascoe freely admits) think he's the Bob Shrum of state politics.

He is nothing if not entertaining, and now he has a blog.

Pascoe has

--smuggled cash and computers behind the Iron curtain
--was a Hill CoS
--is a former RNC spokesman and chief speechwriter
--is a former nationally syndicated radio talk show host
--wrote a column for the Washington Times for 10 years'
--worked for the State Dept. on Central America
--had the thankless job of being Bush-Quayle '88's liaison to conservatives
--wrote his master's thesis on, among others, Sen. Chris Dodd
--managed, in recent cycles, the campaigns of (ahem) Alan Keyes, David Vitter, Bret Schundler and Doug Forrester
--runs Urquhart Media LLC today with three partners.

BTW: Why Urquhart? A free Hotline tee shirt (**note: there are no existing Hotline tee shirts) to the first correct guesser. [MARC AMBINDER]

Per Electionline.org:

This morning, the U.S. Senate conducted two roll call votes related to the voter ID amendment (SA 4085) proposed by Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky:

The first vote -- a motion to table the amendment -- failed, 49-48. A record of the roll call vote is here. On the second vote, the Senate invoked cloture (i.e.. agreed to limit debate) on the underlying immigration bill (S. 2611). The vote was 73-25 and the roll call is here. As a result of cloture, the McConnell amendment falls as a non-germane amendment to the bill.

Coming later today: The Hotline's Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder update our White House '08 rankings.

Check out our latest
Senate Race Rankings

Check out our latest
Governor's Race Rankings

Check out list of the 50 most competitive
House Races

Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) does not cotton to Karl Rove. That we know.

A direct mail piece sent out by his campaign dismisses Byrd's challenger John Raese as a "wealthy carpetbagger." It expends far more ink blasting Pres. Bush and Rove for various and sundry nefariousities.

We're not sure the last time a WV Dem used Rove as a bugbear to raise money.

Raese's campaign contends that the mailer violates a Byrd campaign promise to stay positive -- or, at the very least, shows that the campaign "ignored" the pleas of mgr. Ann Barth to excise the "wealthy carpetbagger" reference from the mailer. [MARC AMBINDER]

Arkansas LT GOV primary results....

Halter (D) nabs one runoff spot, other still pending, Holt (R) wins GOP nod. ....Holt clashed frequently with Gov. Mike Huckabee over immigration... In ID 01, Club for Growth appears poised to celebrate another '06 victory as Sali continues to lead with approx. 80% of precincts reporting. Nothing called yet, though.

Election machines not ready in AR...
Turnout low...

The candidates sang on "American Idol," and it gave cable something to sing about.

FNC's O'Reilly, in his "Talking Points" memo: "Our republic demands citizens pay attention in order for the best people to be elected. Is that happening today when 64 percent of young Americans can name the 'American Idol' winners but just 10 percent know who the speaker of the House is? We may be heading for big trouble in this country. In fact, we might already be there" ("O'Reilly Factor," 5/23).

MSNBC's Scarborough explored the "'American Idol' showdown. They're down to two but have the judges already decided who will win?" ("Scarborough Country," 5/23).

Bill Frist made the TV rounds, appearing on "Situation Room" and "Hardball." (And the "Today" show this a.m.). Immigration was the main topic. Frist: "We'll be voting today, tomorrow and Thursday. At the end of that process, we'll have a comprehensive bill that will look at the 12 million people who are out there today illegally" (MSNBC, 5/23).

More Frist: "My goal at the outset was to do what the American people expect. And that is to recognize serious problems. And millions of people crossing this border illegally is a serious issue. National security, economic, humanitarian, you know the reasons" (CNN, 5/23).

The New York Times story on the state of Bill and Hillary Clinton's marriage garnered some TV time, being the topic of discussion on "Hardball" and the "Situation." The "Today" show did a package on it this a.m.

MSNBC's Matthews: "This is the most teasing story I've come across in the New York Times in a long time, the paper of record" ("Hardball," 5/23).

MSNBC's Carlson: "Bill and Hillary Clinton, they're the Brangelina of American politics" ("Situation," 5/23).

And Rep. William Jefferson's (D-LA) troubles continued to make news.

FNC's Wilson: "Hill leaders are not making any judgment, for the moment, about the case against Congressman Jefferson, but they are upset about the execution of that search warrant" ("Special Report," 5/23).

CNN's Bash: "There is actually a move afoot by Congressman Jefferson's own Democratic leadership to pressure him to give up his post on one of Congress's most powerful committees, and that is the House Ways and Means Committee. This is ... further evidence that the Democratic leadership not only is isolating the congressman, but actually seems to be outright abandoning him, essentially trying to make sure he gets the message they want him to leave Congress" ("AC 360," 5/23). [EMILY GOODIN]

Per Marion Steinfels, Lieberman's comm. dir: "Senator Lieberman has as good a chance of winning the MoveOn primary as he does being the next American Idol."

So, per US News, he won't participate.

Steinfels notes that Lieberman "has already won endorsements from the gay-rights group Human Rights Campaign, the League of Conservation Voters, and roughly a dozen labor unions."

The primary is 8/8.

Check out this explanatory paragraph and statement from Sen. Chuck Grassley, (R-IA), responding to Sen. Hillary Clinton's ethanol-based energy independence proposals.

Grassley has been a leading advocate for renewable energy, including ethanol, biodiesel, wind, and biomass. Last year, as Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, he authored the tax title of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which included an extension of the excise tax credit for blenders, and extension and expansion of the small ethanol producers’ tax credit and the infrastructure tax credit. In addition, Sen. Grassley was a leading proponent of the Renewable Fuels Standard that is in the 2005 energy bill. This standard requires the use of 7.5 billion gallons annually of ethanol or biodiesel by 2012. Sen. Clinton voted against the Renewable Fuels Standard being included in the 2005 energy bill.

Here is Sen. Grassley's comment.

"I say to Senator Clinton, 'welcome to the club.' We'll be happy to update her on the pro-ethanol laws we've enacted without her vote. If Senator Clinton is a born-again ethanol supporter, let's hope she has the zeal of a convert as she begins promoting ethanol and other renewable fuels."

Speaking at Cooper Union in New York this afternoon, Pres. Bill Clinton, in a commencement address, called for comity and common sense, giving shoutouts to three American politicians of uncommon bipartisan fortitude.

Too often in the past twenty-five years our elections and political discourse have been marked by the triumph of personal attacks, baseless or irrelevant assertions, and blind ideology over evidence argument. Too often the purpose of an election has been to concentrate wealth and power by dividing the public and diverting our attention away from pressing problems to matters that excite deep political passions but that will take up less than 1% of a candidates time if he or she is elected.

But all the attacks, accusations, and ideological diatribes cannot make the facts go away. They matter. So do thinking, reasoning, and honest respectful arguing, especially when the problems and solutions are complex.

I believe the American people know this. The deep yearning for a larger, unifying politics explains at least in part the strong positive reaction former President Bush and I have received for our work together in the aftermath of the tsunami and Hurricane Katrina. It explains why lawmakers like my wife and Senator McCain are trying to find common ground on climate change, and why Hillary has reached out to Republicans as well as Democrats to find common solutions to our healthcare problem, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and the needs of our men and women in uniform.

The full speech is after the jump.

DailyKos is doing one of his regular checkins with his readers to gauge their opinions on key Dem Party leaders. Not surprisingly, DNC Chair Howard Dean remains wildly popular. But once again, House Min. Leader and potential-Speaker-in-waiting Nancy Pelosi scores incredibly low with this group of folks. Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid is receiving solid marks so far, but Pelosi's net negative rating with this group of folks is striking.

We would love somebody to give us an explanation as to why Pelosi continues to rate so poorly with this key Democratic constituency group. We hear negative whispers all the time about Pelosi within the Beltway Democratic elite but would like to understand more the beefs the liberal blogosphere has with her. Please share either in the comments section or privately via email. [CHUCK TODD]

CA 50 Dem candidate Francine Busby (D) today endorsed an ethical standard that Beltway Dems have so far found unpalatable.

Busby, in a statement, "called on Representative William Jefferson (D-LA) to resign immediately from Congress."

Busby:

"Americans deserve the highest standard of ethical conduct from our members of Congress. We must fight corruption in both parties to make Congress work for the people of this country. Mr. Jefferson should do what is in the best interest of the people of his district and resign from Congress immediately."

Busby, of course, is a candidate in the June 6 special election to replace ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham (R). VP Cheney today hosted a fundraiser for ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R), who is running neck-and-neck with Busby (if polls and the NRCC's IE expenditures are to be tea-leaved) in this SoCal Republican district.

For many Americans, the most important election of 2006 won't come in November--it's tonight's "American Idol" season finale. (Turnout should be through the roof.)

But in Alabama, the home state of Taylor Hicks, the chubby, Birmingham-born finalist, Idol has become a bit of a nuisance for some of the professionals whose business it is to focus on the old-fashioned kind of election -- and the state of Alabama has a big one on June 6.

So popular is "Idol" that the show's viewership in the state has exploded, dwarfing anything else on television.

Last week's show drew a record 42.6 rating compared to 4 ratings each for the perennially strong "Good Morning America" and "The Today Show."

The "Hicks Factor" has created an unprecedented opportunity for Alabama candidates and consultants for the upcoming primary: practically the entire state is tuning in to 'American Idol' and paying rapt attention -- and to top it all off, they're voters! (If you count voting for your favorite 'Idol' contestant, that is!) Problem is, the cost of associating one's candidacy with Alabama's new favorite son is enough to bankrupt lesser campaigns.

As "Idol's" ratings have skyrocketed, so has the cost of 30-second ads, which can range from $5,000 up to $20,000. The "Hicks Factor" has even spilled over into morning and evening newscasts, whose ratings have been boosted by countless Taylor Hicks tie-ins.

According to information provided to us by one top consultant in the state, Fox's late news has seen a 63 percent increase in ratings due to the 'Idol' lead.

Too bad for Hicks that the state's filing deadline has passed:
if he doesn't take home the crown tonight, he'd have to be the odds-on favorite for governor. [JOSHUA GREEN]

House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), on what Speaker Hastert might do to "protect the interests" of the legislative branch.

Well, I have got to believe at the end of the day it is going to end up across the street at the Supreme Court. I don't see anything short of that.

He continued, later, speaking of the executive branch:

"They take the same oath, so somebody better start reading the Constitution down there."

Major Democratic donors, nervous that Republicans' federal fundraising advantages will give GOP candidates an extra bounce before the November election, are pondering strategies to fund several committees that would air television ads designed to give Democrats in tight races some breathing room.

Several of these wealthy liberals are affiliated with the Democracy Alliance, which pools donations and channels progressive philanthropy to center-left think tanks and advocacy groups.

Some of that money may find its way to the Fresh Start America Project, which registered as a 527 committee with the IRS in early March. Michael Gehrke, a former top aide to Sen. John Kerry and ex-research director for the DNC, is listed as the organizations' contact. (Roll Call first reported the project's IRS filing.) Gehrke is also the current exec. dir of the Senate Majority Project, which aims to soften up out-of-cycle Republican incumbents.

"We're still very early in our planning stages," Gehrke said. "A lot of what we do is going to depend on what we raise, and in some ways, what we raise is going to depend on what we do."

Gerhke said the group hopes "to have a good start on fundraising by the end of June."

The project has enlisted up high-wattage Democratic consultants, including ex-DSCC exec. dir/ACT consultant Jim Jordan, ex-Edwards mgr. Nick Baldick, ex-ACT fundraising czar Diana Rogalle, prominent fundraiser David Mercer and ex-DSCC exec. dir. David Rudd.

Jordan and Rogalle were principals in the fundraising and political entities that ran America Coming Together, which flooded swing states with get-out-the-vote volunteers, and the Media Fund, which ran millions in television ads to help persuade left-leaning voters to show up at the polls.

ACT and the Media Fund have since disbanded. Many of their member organizations continue to coordinate their political action at roundtable run by another group, America Votes.

They've begun to use demographic and voter identification data provided by a new limited liability corporation, Data Warehouse. America Votes and Data Warehouse share office space on Vermont Ave. in Washington. An America Votes IRS filing shows it paid $125,000 to the Data Warehouse for a subscription to their databases. [MARC AMBINDER]

Patrick Guerriero, who has presided over the Log Cabin Republican organization over the past four years of its stormy relationship with the Bush White House, is stepping down as president in 9/06. Guerriero will become the first-ever executive director of the Gill Action Fund. "It has been a humbling experience leading Log Cabin Republicans during the past four years," Guerriero said in a news release today. "I'm proud of what thousands of courageous Log Cabin members across America have accomplished as we work to build an inclusive Republican Party and a better America."

No word on a successor, yet.

Senator Hillary Clinton was well attuned to her audience when she paused, during her major energy speech at the Press Club this morning, to apologize for "probably a more wonkish speech than many of you had anticipated."

Fittingly so, because even the most enthusiastic wonks have a tough time digesting talk of "cellulosic ethanol" and "biomass fuels" before lunch.

Thankfully, the centerpiece of Clinton's speech was easier to
grasp: her "fifty-by-twenty-five energy initiative," as she put it, would reduce America's dependence on foreign oil by fifty percent by the year 2025. Clinton compared her proposal to the Manhattan Project; given the specificity and detail with which she explained it, a nuclear engineering degree might have helped her audience.

Clinton's speech provided a sharp contrast to the Bush administration's recent cautious rhetoric about energy and gas prices, both by countering their generalities with specifics (plenty of those!) and rebutting their notion that little can be done to change things by asserting otherwise and then, in a style that would do her husband proud, backing up those assertions with detailed plans to boost everything from wind power to biofuels to a Strategic Energy Fund she hopes to create by introducing legislation today (it will be funded partially by a two-year windfall profits tax on oil companies, who she also whacked for not providing ethanol pumps at gas stations).

On a dais heavy with New York state reporters, Clinton also deftly wove in mention of some of her state's business-environmental success stories, among them the low-sulfur diesel fuel produced by Cummins and the school-bus exhaust filters made by Corning -- a traditionally Republican company that has lately swooned, Murdoch-like, for the state's junior Democratic Senator. [JOSHUA GREEN]

Time's Mike Allen summarizes Rep. Mike Pence's new immigration proposal, which Pence will unveil today at the Heritage Foundation.

Pence, a rising star in the House, is suggesting a temporary worker program based on a data base run by private industry. And unlike the leading plan in the Senate and the blueprint sketched by Bush, his "Border Integrity and Immigration Reform Act" would require all applicants to leave the country first. Pence tweaks a phrase from Bush's address to the nation by calling the compromise "a REAL rational middle ground." Even though Bush has said his preferred solution "ain't amnesty," Pence appeals to hard-liners by calling the compromise a "no-amnesty solution."

"The solution is to set up a system that will encourage illegal aliens to self-deport and come back legally as guest workers," Pence, the grandson of an Irish immigrant, says in prepared remarks. "The visa will be issued only outside of the United States. Outside of the United States. That is a key point because it is the provision that will require the twelve million illegal aliens to leave. Now, some of you are thinking to yourselves that 12 million people aren't going to pack up and leave just to get a visa to come back legally. But, I believe most will."

The former VP candidate and treas. sec. was 85.

A longer obit.

Here's what House Maj. Leader John Boehner (R-OH) will say at this morning's pen and pad before he takes questions.

"With three appropriations bills on the floor, this week the House will continue its efforts to hold the line on spending and demonstrate fiscal discipline. Of note I would like to highlight the Homeland Security bill, which increases funding for border and port security."

"Two of the three bills cut funding below last year's enacted level. So far this year, Appropriations Committee Democrats have now requested $26.1 billion in new spending above and the levels outlined in the FY 2007 appropriations bills thus far. For the American people, it provides a clear choice between Republicans' focus on lower taxes and fiscal responsibility and Democrats who are once again proposing tax hikes and more spending."

The following cities have submitted bids to host the '08 DNC and RNC conventions.

For the Democrats:

Denver
New Orleans
New York
Minneapolis-St. Paul

Per a spokesperson: "The site visits by our technical advisory committee will occur this summer. The convention city will be picked this fall."

For the Republicans:

Cleveland
Minneapolis-St. Paul
New York
Tampa-St. Pete

The site selection cmte will announce finalists by July; they'll recommend a city in November and the RNC will vote in early '07.

The national political media would love for the Dem convention to be held in, say, Minneapolis and the GOP convention to be held in, say, St. Paul, but that's just wishful thinking.

Or is it? [MARC AMBINDER]

ABC News has named Charles Gibson to be sole anchor of "World News Tonight."

"Charlie Gibson is one of the most distinguished journalists on television. He is a superb broadcaster, the consummate professional, and a very familiar presence to the audience and everyone at 'World News Tonight,'" said ABC News President David Westin, who announced the decision today.

Gibson's new assignment will take effect on May 29. He will continue as a co-anchor of "Good Morning America" until June 30.

Vargas said today she had chosen to step down to take maternity leave and later return to co-anchor "20/20" and ABC News specials.

This Move America Forward commercial, which urges a censure of Jimmy Carter, got us thinking.

Has it gotten so bad for some GOP activists that they can't even find a Clinton scandal to blame for today's woes?

Heck, why not create a 'Daisy'-like ad blaming Lyndon Johnson. If not for his dithering and mismanagement, the post-war liberal consensus might not have split and the country would be united on Iraq.

Or blame JFK. We wouldn't have gotten into Vietnam in the first place. Americans wouldn't be afraid of prolonged foreign engagements...

Or blame Eisenhower. Yeah -- that partaker of proxy wars!

Wasn't it FDR who got us into WWII after a blissful 20s? If we continued with isolationism, we wouldn't have the immigration woes we have today.

That's the new slogan for '06: Vote Republican. Not the party of FDR.

It was the last minutes of "24" for Jack Bauer, but he'll always have cable news.

While there was some talk of Pres. Bush's still declining poll numbers and the situation in Iraq, most of the political talk centered on Rep. William Jefferson (D-LA).

MSNBC's Matthews: "This is almost funny, except it is criminal if it's true" ("Hardball," 5/22).

CNN's Bash: "The congressman says he won't resign, despite private pressure from Democratic leaders, who want to make corruption a campaign issue against Republicans" ("AC 360," 5/22).

FNC's Wilson: "Democrats are apparently worried. We have received word that they have approached a couple of key Democrats from New Orleans, one of them is the council president Oliver Thomas, city council president, and a state represent by the name of Karen Carter asking them if they would be interesting in running for Jefferson's seat" ("Special Report," 5/22).

Al Sharpton: "This was all found months ago, almost a year ago, and yet they still had to make an unprecedented raid at his congressional office. So if it was that cut and dry, why haven't they closed this case, indicted him or not, a year ago when they found the cash. They didn't find the cash last week, so obviously they're still looking for something and they're not still satisfied that they have a case to make the unprecedented move they made before" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/22).

NBC's P. Williams: "Federal officials say they acted only after asking for documents from Jefferson's office eight months ago, and getting nowhere" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/22).

Dem strategist James Carville: "I have been racking my brain all day and calling people, wanting to know what could be the other side of the story for a congressman having $90,000 of cash in his freezer. And the collective wisdom of my friends have not been able to come up with anything. But if he can come up with a reason for this, I'm waiting here, man. I want to hear it, because I can't think of it" ("Situation Room," CNN, 5/22).

We hear that Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) is on the verge of announcing publicly that he's actively considering a 2008 presidential bid. Dodd today notified several national Democrats of his plans.

Dodd spoke exclusively to David Lightman, the Washington bureau chief of the Hartford Courtant.

Dodd told the AP last month that he had an "itch" to make a run, adding that it "could grow" or "could disappear."

Evidently it has grown.

Dodd flirted with a presidential bid in 2004. He is a former general chair of the Democratic National Committee and has spent 26 years in the Senate.

Oh, and Mark Warner -- that Mark Warner -- was once Dodd's body guy.

Update: From Lightman's article:

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd said today he has "decided to do all the things that are necessary to prepare to seek the presidency in 2008."

The Connecticut Democrat will hire staff, raise money and travel around the country in the next few months as he tries to enlist support.

Dodd made it clear Monday that he has thought carefully about this undertaking. He spoke confidently and rapidly about his plans, and his tone was unusually serious. Dodd often injects humor or even gossip into his conversation. Not this time.

He explained that after weeks of talking with key advisers he decided to proceed last month during dinner with his wife, Jackie, at Jack's American Bistro and Wine Bar in Old Saybrook. Jackie Dodd, a savvy Washington player who was an executive at the Export-Import Bank and is now an international business consultant, told her husband he should lay the groundwork to run.

Dodd turned to old friends who have advised him for years, including Rep. Rosa L. DeLauro, D-3rd District, his first Senate chief of staff in the early 1980s; Douglas Sosnik, another former chief of staff who became President Clinton's political director; former Sen. Ernest F. Hollings, D-S.C., an old friend who ran for president in 1984; former Minnesota Rep. Richard M. Nolan, and pollster Stanley Greenberg, DeLauro's husband and a longtime Dodd adviser.

DeLauro was unequivocal. "This is someone who is incredibly effective, a unifying person," she said Monday. Forget any concerns about being tagged as a New England liberal, DeLauro advised.

[MARC AMBINDER and JONATHAN MARTIN]

Check out this last paragraph:

"Once I have more information about this raid made available to me, I have had an opportunity to carefully consider the long-term ramifications for the Legislative Branch of this action, and I have consulted with the appropriate bipartisan leaders of the House, I expect to seek a means to restore the delicate balance of power among the branches of government that the Founders intended."

First it was Newt Gingrich, who on Sunday e-mailed friends his outrage that the FBI raided the congressional offices of Rep. William Jefferson.

Today, mostly Dems issued statements saying (a) while Jefferson should be held accountable for his actions, (b) the FBI dangerously eroded the separation between the executive and legislative branches.

Now, Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) weighs in:

"It is the duty of the Justice Department to root out and prosecute corruption wherever it is found, including in the U.S. House of Representatives. I believe that all Members of the House should cooperate fully with any criminal investigation.

"That being said, I am very concerned about the necessity of a Saturday night raid on Congressman Jefferson's Capitol Hill Office in pursuit of information that was already under subpoena and at a time when those subpoenas are still pending and all the documents that have been subpoenaed were being preserved.

The Founding Fathers were very careful to establish in the Constitution a Separation of Powers to protect Americans against the tyranny of any one branch of government. They were particularly concerned about limiting the power of the Executive Branch. Every Congressional Office contains certain Legislative Branch documents that are protected by the Constitution. This protection-as the Supreme Court has repeatedly held-is essential to guarantee the independence of the Legislative Branch. No matter how routine and non-controversial any individual Legislative Branch document might be, the principles of Separation of Powers, the independence of the Legislative Branch, and the protections afforded by the Speech or Debate clause of the Constitution must be respected in order to prevent overreaching and abuse of power by the Executive Branch.

It's a classic delegitimize-the-opponent-for-independents "negative"/"comparison" job.

Announcer: Primary election night, in front of cheering supporters in Pittsburgh, Rick Santorum challenged Bobby Casey to ten debates, and Casey responded with a loud, "No," saying voters didn't care about issues and that campaigns are a contact sport. Now we know what Casey meant. According to a KDKA investigative report, a Casey operative admitted to trespassing at the Santorums' home in Penn Hills, peering into the windows, looking for campaign dirt. But we shouldn't be surprised. Casey has a long history of slinging mud. The Philadelphia Daily News has called Casey's tactics "slash and trash and little else." The chairman of the Democratic Party said Casey took negative campaigning to a new height. And one Philadelphia paper called Casey's campaign "dishonest and nasty." Apparently, that's what we can expect from Bobby Casey again. Santorum: I'm Rick Santorum, candidate for the U.S. Senate, and I approve this message. Announcer: Paid for and authorized by Santorum 2006.

Hey, if turnout is gonna be low...

Casey spokesman Larry Smar: "Santorum has skipped out on two forums where he could have discussed the issues with Bob. In case we needed more proof, this seals it that Santorum was using this debate on debates as a political ploy."

And the Casey campaign, in a release, finds the mention of the KDKA investigation "bizarre." Per the release: "The people who challenged Santorum's residency -- who aren't Casey operatives -- said they haven't been on the property and offered to take a lie detector test to prove it."

Rep. William Jefferson (D-LA), videotaped by the FBI taking $100,000 in cash from an informant, told reporters this afternoon that because the federal investigation "does not retard" his capacity to "represent the people I represent," he won't resign.

"I plan to go to the floor to vote tonight. I plan to carry on my responsibilities here as I have since I've been here," he said. "I expect to continue to represent the people who sent me here."

But Jefferson pointedly did not promise to seek re-election, saying that while he "expects" to run again, "that is a matter down the road."

Jefferson refused to answer questions about the allegations, which have percolated for more than a year and churned the stomachs of Democrats who had hoped to use Republican ethics problems as a foil in the '06 midterms.

So far, not one Democratic elected official has called on Jefferson to resign. But Democratic strategist James Carville, speaking on CNN moments after Jefferson ended his news conference, said of Democratic leaders: "I think that they will deal with this pretty soon."

Jefferson said this afternoon "there are two sides to every story and there are certainly two sides to this story."

A reported shouted out: "If you did not take a $100,000 bribe, why not just say it now?"

Jefferson replied, "If you ask me to get into facts, I just will decline to answer," citing his lawyer's advice.

Jefferson blasted the FBI's search of his congressional office, saying it represented "[an] outrageous intrustion and separation of powers between the executive branch and the congressional branch."

Jefferson said he had retained the services of Robert Trout of Trout and Cacheris.

This week, Ret. Gen. Wes Clark (D), who led the allied bombing of Serbia that helped secure independence for Kosovar Albanians, will return to Kosovo for the first time since the war's end in '99.

Clark will be the guest of the country's government and will be greeted by a special session of parliament.

Almost...

Drudge had claimed that "Well-placed" sources "claimed DNC Chairman Howard Dean made the decision himself to back mayoral candidate and sitting Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (D-LA)."

But the DNC -- and folks who would know -- called the report unequivocally false, often using less-than-family friendly language.

Inconvenient scheduling, perhaps.

To resign?

Or not to resign?

Apparently, he has no plans to resign.

There's a candidate for every GOPer in their 5/23 ID 01 primary.

Movement conservative groups, like Club for Growth and the ACU, endorsed state Rep. Bill Sali for his record in the state legislature. Immigration hawks adore Canyon Co. Cmsr. Robert Vasquez, who styles himself as Idaho's very own Tom Tancredo.

The moderate Main Street Partnership backed ex-state Sen. Sheila Sorensen, one of the best-known candidates in the field. (Upon entering, she reserved every available billboard in the CD.) Pro-business BIPAC supported state controller Keith Johnson. And Sen. Larry Craig's ex-aide Norm Semanko has loyal in-district donors from the farming community.

This crowded race will pit better-funded, nationally-supported candidates against those with more grassroots support. The best-financed candidates (Sali and Vasquez) have raised the majority of money from out-of-state donors -- a statistic exploited by their opponents.

Rep. Butch Otter won the GOP primary in '00, despite opposition from the Club and social conservatives, by winning over local interests. But with a field this packed, anyone could come out on top. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Today, in the Blogometer:

--Liberals enthuse about Lamont's 33 percent "victory"
--McCain's CoS makes a rare foray into the blogosphere
--Bloggers v. MSM (part XXVII)
--GOP bloggers v. Bush (part XXVI)

The Hotline's
Blogometer

THE NEW FRONTIER

Was the fuss over micro-targeting in '04 really legit? Can it decide an election before the votes are already in? These questions and more led to an investigative foray into the expensive and complex world of targeting voters. The findings were so large that publishing them in one story would not do the concept justice. The Hotline's Aoife McCarthy and Katherine Lehr present a three-part series focusing on how micro-targeting has influenced and continues to influence media ad buys, direct mail initiatives and online advertising. Part one is here. Friday: part two.

Below concludes our three-part series on the use of micro-targeting in political campaigns. If you missed them, check out our findings concerning its affect on media ad buys (see 5/17 Hotline) and direct mail initiatives (see 5/18 Hotline).
Despite the headway made during the '04 election harnessing the power of the Internet, to some campaigns, it is still the great unknown. Well for those who are still using the term "web log," read on. We found the key to making the Internet work for you, and your campaign. Hint -- It's all about targeting.
According to The Laredo Group's CEO Jeff Leibowitz, the world of politics simply does not understand all of the online resources available. In order for political campaigns to use the Internet effectively, managers and consultants alike have to become aware of the opportunities the Internet has to offer. Established in '96 by Leslie Laredo, The Laredo Group offers trainings across the country, giving more than 11K clients the know-how on topics from Internet sales and advertising to Podcast ads.

In Baltimore this weekend, Barbaro broke his ankle and Martin O'Malley (D) parted ways with his campaign manager.

Replacing Jonathan Epstein will be ex-MD Dem exec. dir. Josh White. Some Dems suggest that O'Malley and his brother Peter (who now takes a formal role in the GOV camp as he had in past mayoral races) have been a bit gobsmacked at all the free media Montgomery Co. Exec Doug Duncan has managed to score in recent weeks, with the race's first TV ads and the selection of his Baltimore-based running mate.

But the O'Malley camp says the decision to change horses was made "from a position of strength," pointing to continued advantages in polls and money.

New leadership also gives the camp "a greater Maryland focus" (Epstein came to the Free State after working Iowa field ops for John Kerry) and also signals they're ready to engage Duncan, who refuses to quit and regularly dogs any good press O'Malley gets.

One example: The MD state teachers union decided not to endorse, which O'Malley's team had last week said would be taken as a win, since Duncan made education the centerpiece of his campaign. But Duncan's communications team tried to turn it around in an attempt to create the impression that because O'Malley is the frontrunner, any decision not to endorse reflects poorly on him. [MIKE MEMOLI]

Whoops!

Last week, we wrote that Pres. Bush would visit Pottstown in PA's 17th congressional district.

We were off our rockers.

Pottsville is in PA's 17th district. But Pottstown is in PA's 6th, which makes the narrative we tried to imply -- Bush visits a "safe" (for him) district -- inoperative.

A White House official says the trip to PA has been planned for a month.

Bush will visit the Limerick nuclear power plant.

Pottstown is in Montgomery Co., about 45 miles NW of Philly, and is represented by Rep. Jim Gerlach (R). The Almanac of American Politics says that Montgomery is where Dem Lois Murphy, Gerlach's one and present opponent, performs the strongest. John Kerry won the 6th by several percentage points and during the last congressional midterm, Gov. Ed Rendell bested his opponent by a 2-to-1 margin.

Bush also makes a stop in downtown Philaldephia to raise money for Gerlach and other PA congressional candidates. That event is closed to the press.

The WH press shop thought what Nagin said after his victory was so important, they re-sent the quote to their entire press list. From one of their "In Case You Missed It..." releases:

Mayor Nagin: "I Want To Thank You, Mr. President"

Remarks By New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin

May 20, 2006

MAYOR NAGIN: "I want to thank you, Mr. President. You and I have probably been the most vilified politicians in the country. But I want to thank you for moving that promise that you made in Jackson Square forward. We now have $3 billion for levees. We have $8 billion for incentives. We have $10 billion for housing. You are delivering on your promise, and I want to thank you for all the citizens of the City of New Orleans."

Honestly, we stopped trying to predict the New Orleans race weeks ago. Too many variables. That said, there was part of us that wouldn't have been surprised to see Ray Nagin lose. Well, he didn't lose. It wasn't landslide, as Nagin edged Mitch Landrieu 52-48, but a win's a win.

According to the Times-Pic, Nagin kept alive a 60-year streak of incumbent mayors winning re-election. He also kept alive the streak of African-American mayors which began in '78 after Moon Landrieu, Mitch's father, left office.

Nagin's victory also tells us that Louisiana's days of no longer electing Democrats statewide (and in a few surrounding Congressional Districts) isn't necessarily over. Apparently, there are enough New Orleans voters to keep the state competitive between the two parties. True, Landrieu and Nagin are both Dems but the assumption by many was that a Nagin loss would be a signal that the large African-American vote in the city (which is largely Democratic) had shrunk. Put it this way, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon, is breathing a little easier this morning. [CHUCK TODD]

Yeah, that's what Lieberman's mgr said (expectation-raised) Lamont would get.

But as Colin McEnroe says: "I've had some stranger nights covering politics, but not many. I have never seen a group of people as elated to lose 2-1 as the Ned Lamont supporters nor a winning side as lifeless and frozen-faced as the Lieberman crowd when Friday night's votes were counted."

Physiognomic translation: a real primary race for Joe Lieberman, one that he might lose, against a extremely well-funded, ideologically dedicated challenger.

The primary: August 8

If this week proved anything, it's that there are many ways to comeback, or more precisely, many ways to talk about coming back.

The last 5 days in varied comebacks all started when, after months of publicly kicking around the idea, ex-WI Gov. Tommy Thompson finally decided he would not enter the GOV race. In publicly toying with the possibility of a return, Thompson wrote a scene for himself that kept him in the headlines for months. But in doing this, could he have also written himself out of future ones? In other words, how far can a pol stretch the notation of "maybe" before he's just leading us on?

Axl Rose, who recently made a surprise radio appearance to proclaim G 'n R is coming back (again), serves as a cautionary tale in the dangers of public displays of affections. For 10 years Rose has assured us of his return to musical prominence. But somewhere along the way -- maybe it was the braids or the Chinese Democracy theme -- everyone stopped believing in him.

And then there is Tom Daschle, who 2 years ago said he would never make a return to politics. This week, after keeping a relatively low profile, he staged his political comeback in a big way, saying he will explore a '08 run. After passing on '04, is this the last pass we'll afford him?

But perhaps Al Gore made the biggest comeback of the week with his release of "An Inconvenient Truth," a movie premiere, which amounted to just a tiny drop in the bucket of what has been the total remaking of a man. The real irony is we can't get enough of Gore's un-comeback comeback. Politically speaking, Gore has done his best not to offer society a branch to grasp, causally dismissing rumors of a '08 run at every turn. It's the casual dismissals of someone too hip to react with anything not marked on the scale between light mirth and malaise -- and it seems to be working.

And of course, there's another type of comeback which Bob Torricelli brought to bear this week in his return to the headlines. As reports emerged that the Senate is investigating the Torch for his link to the UN oil-for-food program, we're reminded of at least one way not to come back: in the same way you left. [NORA MCALVANAH]

Correction Appended

Pres. Bush will spent next Wednesday in Pennsylvania, a week after a fractious primary left Republicans divided and nervous.

According to the Week Ahead schedule released by the White House this afternoon, Bush will travel to Pottstown tour the Limerick power generation station. There, he'll tout his energy initiatives.

He'll later raise money for Pennsylvania Congressional candidates.

BTW: this trip was planned at least a month in advance. [MARC AMBINDER]

This makes Dick Wadhams smile.

Former lobbyist Harris Miller and former Navy Secretary James Webb clashed during the taping of what was billed as a casual conversation for "On the Record," a Norfolk television show that will air Sunday morning. The exchange started calmly, with both men taking pot-shots at the man they each want to beat, Republican Sen. George Allen.

But the conversation quickly turned nasty, with Miller questioning Webb's partisan "values" and Webb calling Miller "the anti-Christ of outsourcing." It ended at an impromptu press conference after the taping with a visibly frustrated Webb telling Miller to "shut your mouth."

Leaving aside the plausibility question, is the former maj./min. leader, who heads to IA, NH and MI beginning June 9, a Gingrich-esque book-deal flirter? A Gore-esque monocausual promotion whiz?

Or is he soberly considering a bid for the presidency?

Based on what he's told his close friends, he's clenched-jaw serious.

And Daschle's decision will be guided, in part, on the results of the contested '06 primaries that Daschle, unlike most would-be '08ers, has waded into.

Daschle's PAC has contributed to candidates including VA's Webb (even Mark Warner won't back him yet), MT's Morrison, MN's Klobuchar, RI's Whitehouse, Gifford in AZ 08, Duckworth in IL 06 and Wilson in OH 06.

These nods could mean Daschle, having decided against '08, feels free taking risks. But if his candidates they win, Daschle's in chit city.

Dem funders, including Peter Buttenweiser and Ben Barnes are among the A-list names Daschle has consulted about a run.

Others more firmly in Daschle's corner -- should he decide to do something -- include Leo Hindery, who ran for DNC chair against Howard Dean, and Daschle's longtime finance guru, Cappy McGarr. He's also very close to ex-9/11 commiss/NE Sen. Bob Kerrey, currently the pres. of New School U.

As we've noted elsewhere, a large detachment of Daschle's political kitchen cabinet, including longtime communications aide Dan Pfeiffer and political strategist Anita Dunn, have decamped to other presidential teams.

His long-time chief of staff, Pete Rouse, serves in the same capacity for Sen. Barack Obama. And his former trusted spokesman Jay Carson now serves as Bill Clinton's comm. director.

So how will he run?

Based on the speeches he's given recently, a buzzword will probably be "security," broadly incorporating energy independence, national security interdependence, and health care. [MARC AMBINDER]

In today's Blogometer, a Wesley Clark, Jr. rant you won't want to miss.

Sample quote [on whether Ret. Gen. Wes Clark (D) would run again]: "He can't do it over again....I can't think, I know, I I can't imagine him running again. I mean, literally... the next election for '08 is an effing lock-up. You've got Hillary Clinton. You've got 8, 16 years of political favors to call in."

The Hotline's
Blogometer

Plus: a complete preview of tonight's CT state Democratic convention. What's Lamont's floor? What's Lieberman's ceiling?

Is there any more of a dead give-away that a campaign is on the defensive over a visit from Pres Bush than when they refer to him as a) the "commander-in-chief" or b) the "leader of the free world?"

Not to pick on Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA), but she is only the latest to deploy this increasingly frequent tactic: Make a presidential appearance more about the prestige and dignity of the office than about the man occupying it so as to make any attacks on him more anti-President of the United States than anti-George W. Bush.

Tuesday's primaries provided mixed news for Dems' military veteran candidates. Naval Reserve officer Chris Carney got a huge boost from Rep. Don Sherwood's (R-PA 10) feeble primary performance against a no-name challenger.

Iraq war vet Patrick Murphy won easily against ex-Bucks Co. Cmsr. Andy Warren, and should give Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA 08) a tough challenge. But in KY 03, Iraq war vet Andrew Horne -- once highly-touted by Dems -- lost by 22 points to alt-weekly newspaper publisher John Yarmuth.

Horne's underwhelming performance has been more representative of veterans' prospects so far. Tammy Duckworth won a closer-than-expected IL 06 Dem primary, and just replaced her campaign manager. Joe Sulzer, who won early financial support from the DCCC, finished third in an OH 18 primary. And Dems once had high hopes against Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC 08), but Iraq war vet Tim Dunn dropped out early because of lackluster fundraising. The ironic part for Dems is that the vet in perhaps the best shape this fall -- Carney -- flew under the radar for months. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Eyebrows arched last night as Don Fowler, a member of the DNC's rules and bylaws committee from South Carolina, reminded his fellow RBC members that they hadn't formally voted to add any event to the party's primary calendar -- only that they agreed to consider adding a few states "in principle."

Fowler knows that most RBC members support adding at least one caucus between IA and NH and at maybe one primary after NH but before the "window" opens on Feb. 5.

The irony: the consensus on the committee is that South Carolina, Fowler's beloved home state, has the best shot of getting the post-NH primary slot.

So Fowler is working, in a sense, against the interest of his state's Democratic Party.

But Fowler, and others on the committee like member Harold Ickes, are sticklers for the rules. And Fowler is technically correct. The primary calendar commission appointed by Terry McAuliffe recommended a framework for the rules and bylaws committee to set a calendar for '08. It didn't proscribe anything.

The likeliest scenario is that the committee will once again debate the desirability of more early caucus or primary states and then formally vote to approve a plan to add at least one.

That's not to say the debate hasn't advanced: since the commission ended its work last December, more than a dozen states from CA to FL have signaled their intention to move up their presidential primaries, giving credence to fears that the DNC commission plan would incentivize frontloading.

That's the new reality underlaying the RBC's committee's debate.

So we hate to end with "anything's possible."

But... [MARC AMBINDER]

(From the Nebrasksa Democratic Party)

The Da Ricketts Code
"Seek the Truth"

LINCOLN, Neb. -- Pete Ricketts is an enigma that has stumped thousands of Nebraska voters. Who is this man who spent $5 million in the Republican primary? What does he stand for? What are his priorities? What does he mean when he espouses "tiresome platitudes?" [Omaha World Herald editorial, 5/11/06]

Now, for the first time, the secrets of Pete Ricketts will be revealed. The 'Da Ricketts Decoder' can help any Nebraskan understand where this mystery will lead.

It's Not Just For

TV Any More

Was the fuss over micro-targeting in '04 really legit? Can it decide an election before the votes are already in? These questions and more led to an investigative foray into the expensive and complex world of targeting voters. The findings were so large that publishing them in one story would not do the concept justice. The Hotline's Aoife McCarthy and Katherine Lehr present a three-part series focusing on how micro-targeting has influenced and continues to influence media ad buys, direct mail initiatives and online advertising. Part one is here. Today: part two.

Direct mail has long been revered as a way to target voters using voter files and polling data, but one Dem mail firm has taken it a step further. The L.A. and Chicago based Strategy Group has gone beyond the standard voter file methodology and has started to implement consumer data to target mail -- a very media buyer-esque approach.

Waiting for the right opportunity, The Strategy Group found it with The Campaign For Tobacco Free Kids and their mutli-state advocacy campaign. According to Tobacco Free Kids' VP for Research Danny McGoldrick, the group traditionally relied on polling courtesy of The Mellman Group and others to identify targets for their direct mail campaigns -- a common practice. However, The Strategy Group took it one step further.

A shocker on the "O.C." and -- even more shocking -- Pres. Bush gives one-on-one interviews with various network WH correspondents.

FNC's Cameron: "The president invited network reporters for brief one-on-one interviews at one location where officials say hundreds cross the border illegally every night" ("Special Report," 5/18).

On how he'll deal with immigration without hurting the GOP in the elections, Bush: "There's some people in our party who think, you know, deportation will work, or, you know, don't want to deal with the issue that of people been here for a long period of time. There are people in the other party that want to have automatic amnesty. As I said in my speech, I've found a good middle ground" (FNC, 5/18).

On being at the border: "When we add 6000 Border Patrol agents to the Border Patrol that are patrolling up and down this vast border, we will have doubled the Border Patrol since I've been the president of the United States. But until we get those additional 6000 agents on, they got to have help. And that's why the National Guard is necessary to help the Border Patrol do its job" (CNN, 5/18).

More Bush: "We've got to get additional help down here in order to get the job done" (ABC, 5/18).

CBS' Plante: "You sent Karl Rove up [to the Hill] yesterday and they practically showed him the door."

Bush: "Let's let the process work. My job is to find that common sense way forward and continue to articulate" (CBS, 5/18).

NBC's Gregory: "In the most recent survey, your disapproval rating is now one point lower than Richard Nixon's before he resigned the presidency. You're laughing, but ...

Bush: "I'm not laughing, I just ..."

Gregory: "Why do you think that is?"

Bush: "Because we're at war, and war unsettles people. We got -- listen, we've got a great economy. We've added 5.2 million jobs in the last two-and-a-half years. But ... people are unsettled. They don't look at the economy and say life is good. They know we're at war and I'm not surprised that people are unsettled because of war."

Gregory: "But they're just not unsettled, sir. They disapprove of the job you're doing."

Bush: "That's unsettled."

Gregory: "Do you think it's possible that like Nixon and Watergate, that the American people have rendered a final judgment of disapproval on you and your war in Iraq?"

Bush: "Of course not. I have got two-and-a-half years left to be president of the United States, and I intend to get a lot done, including immigration reform. Yesterday I signed the extension of tax relief. We're making good progress on cutting this deficit in half. ... I'm also not going to retreat in the face of adverse polls. I'm going to do what I think is right and complete the mission in Iraq, and I believe a free Iraq is going to make the world a better place" (NBC, 5/18).

THE RUMMY AND O'REILLY SHOW

Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld sat down with FNC's O'Reilly:

On criticism the Nat'l Guard is overworked and shouldn't go to the border: "It would be nice if people asked questions and learned a little bit before they say things like that. ... 6,000 people that would be out of 445,000 guard."

On Iraq: "It's a test of wills, as most wars are." More: "Think of what 9/11 cost us. Wouldn't you rather fight those people over there instead of fighting them here?" (FNC, 5/18).

IDOL CHATTER

And, finally, MSNBC's Olbermann and talk radio host Maria Milito talked about Sen. Trent Lott's (R-MS) comments on "American Idol."

Olbermann: "Isn't there something wrong when we've gotten to a point, a major American senator saying, like the old joke from the Chicago democratic wards goes, 'vote early, vote often?'"

Milito: "He should be thinking about what he says, but we know that. But the fact that he's from Mississippi and he's not voting for somebody from Alabama? Why would he vote for Katherine from Sherman Oaks? It fuels my conspiracy theory. Don't you think? Something's just not kosher, here" ("Countdown," 5/18). [EMILY GOODIN]

The Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee, tasked with selecting at least one new early caucus for 2008, met via teleconference this evening. The purpose: metrics.

The Hotline's Justin Miller listened in (legally).

The criteria examined were states' population, population growth, ethnic/racial diversity, union presence as a percentage of the workforce, the '92, '00, '04 (but not '96) presidential election results, registered voters, registered Dems, electoral votes, and the partisan composition of the gov., legislature, Cong. delegation, and geographic size.

(Attached is a PDF grid of the criteria. Note: MI's Cong. del. should read "6 Dems, 9 GOPers.")

NV, AZ and CO were attractive to the RBCers with double-digit population growth, as well as AK and SC.

DC and MS were noted for having the first -- and second --largest African-American populations (as percentages) while AZ, HI, WV, NH and IA had the lowest black population compositions of the group. The Hispanic population (nationally, larger than the U.S. black population by 2%) is twice the national average in AZ and high in NV and CO.

Asian-Pacific Islanders were are well-above the nat. avg. in HI and NV. Native American populations are sizable in NV and AZ, while mirroring the nat. avg. in AK and CO.

Labor gave HI, MI, WV and NV some advantages compared to AK and SC, which have the lowest percentage of unionized workers among the 11 states.

Most states did not attract attention for their pres. election results, but two: Michigan with it's nearly-identical margins for the Dems in '00 and '04 and CO's losses to the GOP, but the Dems' "50 State Partnership will turn that around," one member said (confidently).

The RBC will next convene via telephone on 6/22 and then meet in-person in Washington on 7/22-23.

Of those in competitive Senate races:

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL)
Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV)

Voting NO

Sen. Menendez (D-NJ)
Sen. Cantwell (D-WA)
Sen. Stabenow (D-MI)

Tuesday's forum at the National Press Club on the George Washington University Battleground Poll shed a little light on the evolving minds of young voters. Dem pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners said that for young voters, "the Democrats are reading quite favorably right now." But, she conceded, young people are in sync with older voters as they generally approve of their member of Congress, and it would be bad for the Democrats if the GOP succeeds in localizing the elections.

Both pollsters said the general gender gap isn't as evident as it once was, but Lake mentioned that young men are particularly interested in energy independence and the quest for other "renewable and sustainable" sources of energy. Maybe Democrats would be wise to make some dents in the GOP's long-standing stronghold on male voters this time by focusing on the issue...

On the GOP side, Tarrance Group pollster Ed Goeas rejected conventional wisdom and advised it makes sense for Republicans to target young voters. "If they are Republican, they are very intensely Republican," he said. (College Republicans, this means you.) However, Goeas joked that due to the left-leaning nature of young voters, the GOP would be best off if voters under 30 could be disenfranchised. [ERIN MCPIKE]

Maybe we're in the minority, but we love the trivia contest Republican Dick DeVos features in his weekly MI GOV campaign emails. In fact, they are so good, we thought we'd include this week's question from the DeVos email. As you'll see, these aren't bogus questions designed to elicit crappy campaign spin, but real political trivia. Enjoy.

Trivia Challenge

When Democratic Senator Pat McNamara died in 1966, Governor George Romney appointed this person to fill the vacancy. Name the person.

Please email your response, with the name of the city you live in , to Trivia@DeVosForGovernor.com .

In all seriousness, games are always a good way to create good will with you activists. We're surprised we don't see more of this. And if a lot of campaigns are doing this already, let us know. [CHUCK TODD]

Bruised by Tuesday's near-historic defeat of more than a dozen top incumbents, we hear that the chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, Eileen Melvin, is set to announce that she won't seek re-election to her post.

Melvin took sides with those party leaders like Chip Brightbill and Bob Jubeilrer who were ousted by primary voters upset at their defense of a sneaky pay-raise.

A leading candidate is current PA GOP vice chair Matthew Kirk, who served as BC04 chair in Lancaster Co.

A Republican official with knowledge of internal machinations said that "the key will be to find someone who will work hard for Rick [Santorum] and Lynn Swann, and keep the staff in place, as they are very good."

The national GOP has no horse in the race, yet.

Who becomes chair will depend on how strong the conservatives who won the state house and senate races assert themselves. As in many state Republican parties, there's a sharp split between social conservatives and Republican establishment-types. GOP elites in PA are also divided by geography; the Harrisburg-Philly axis fared poorly on Tuesday and movement conservatives from the southwestern, western and central part of the state are said to be agitating for more influence.

The state committee meets on June 3 in Harrisburg. [MARC AMBINDER]

Per Stephen Dinan's White House pool report, WH press sec. Tony Snow says bluntly "We supported the amendment."

That refers to the 370 miles of fencing the Senate agreed to fund in areas where drug and human traffickers ply their trade.

Per Dinan: "[Snow] said it was consistent with the president's call for building fences in some places as appropriate. He would not get into why that was different than the House's 698-mile fence amendment that passed last year."

Here's a Snow quote that will raise hackles: "He doesn't think you fence off the entire border but there are places, and he said this Monday night, there are places where fences are appropriate, and then, you build fences there."

We very rarely get "ALERTS" from the calm, composed folks at Electionline.org, so our heart pumped a bit when this crossed our inbox.

An amendment to the immigration bill being debated in the U.S. Senate would make it mandatory for all voters to present photo identification before casting ballots in a federal election by Jan. 1, 2008.

Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., introduced the amendment (S.A. 4021) to The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006 (S.B. 2611).

Calls to McConnell's press secretary were not immediately returned, however, a staffer in his office said the vote on the amendment had not yet been scheduled.

Electionline's Doug Chapin sends along the relevant amendment text:

(a) IN GENERAL.--Notwithstanding the requirements of section 303(b), each State shall require individuals casting ballots in an election for Federal office in person to present before voting a current valid photo identification which is issued by a governmental entity and which meets the requirements of section 7212 of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (49 U.S.C. 30301 note)."

The full amendment is after the jump.

They taketh away...

Ben Smith's off the Gore train (for now).

(Mike Feldman: take this manner to dinner!)

Although the HuffPost love-fest continues unabated.

Speaking of CA liberals:

NY SEN candidate/labor advocate/author/ex-Nat'l Writers' Union pres. Jonathan Tasini (D) announced his endorsement by actress Susan Sarandon. "Sarandon joins a long list of prominent women who have endorsed Tasini, including Barbara Ehrenreich, Medea Benjamin, actress Frances Fisher and Academy Award-winning documentarian Barbara Kopple."

Referring to Sen. Hillary Clinton (D), Tasini asks in his release: "do you want to vote for the incumbent who is pro-war, pro-death penalty, pro-Wal-Mart, pro-NAFTA, opposed to single-payer health insurance and who now embraces Rupert Murdoch?"

Yes, the president's approval ratings are low, but it never hurts to remind Iowa voters that their GOP Gov candidate stewarded a "responsible" budget through the House.

(This is from a presidential statement released moments ago.)

The House's vote to pass a responsible budget marks a positive step toward controlling federal spending. This Budget Resolution helps enforce spending discipline and moves us in the right direction to fund our Nation's key priorities. I congratulate Chairman Nussle, the House leadership, and all members of the House who voted for this budget for their hard work and commitment to spending restraint.

This has to be just about the nastiest piece of direct mail we've ever seen.

A candidate for State Assembly in the central valley region of CA, Bill Conrad (R) is apparently running on the platform that his opponent won't survive his term because he had a heart transplant.

Attack line: 'Tom Berryhill doesn't have the HEART for State Assembly'

The full mail can be found here and here.

A Small Idea Launches

A Large-Scale Trend

Was the fuss over micro-targeting in '04 really legit? Can it decide an election before the votes are already in? These questions and more led to an investigative foray into the expensive and complex world of targeting voters. The findings were so large that publishing them in one story would not do the concept justice. The Hotline's Aoife McCarthy and Katherine Lehr present a three-part series focusing on how micro-targeting has influenced and continues to influence media ad buys, direct mail initiatives and online advertising. Today: part one.

With win/loss margins becoming smaller by the election, political strategists from both sides of the aisle are agreeing the ability to micro-target may be the key to victory. Analyzing demographic and consumer information is helping campaigns create a message that resonates with its intended audience. As illustrated in the run for the WH in '04, the emphasis on micro-targeting drastically changed the landscape of political communication. The Bush/Cheney victory, consequently, helped crown the GOP as micro-targeting masters.

Although micro-targeting has advanced in recent years with the increasingly sophisticated data, that can be adaptable to an abundance of variables through targeting software, '04 is not the first time the technique surfaced.

The strategic team at GMMB, which managed the Clinton/Gore media buys in '92, acknowledged that they were the media mavericks for their micro-targeting efforts in the ticket's political upset. Although parties analyze the information in a different manner, they are receiving it from similar sources, such as Scarborough and Nielsen.

With Dem and GOP campaigns both research-driven, is it possible the only way consultants receive credit for a clever media plan is if, and only if, their candidate wins?

It was bare "Bones" on cable last night as pundits hit a variety of topics.

"Hardball" led with Pres. Bush's poll numbers. And Chris Matthews turned movie critic, asking his guests: "I have to ask you a political question. What do you think of the fact that a lot of Christian churches are playing a very clever game with regard to 'The Da Vinci Code,' which could be one the biggest movies in history?"

"Special Report" and "Hannity & Colmes" led with the immigration debate. FNC's O'Reilly, in his "Talking Points" memo: "Millions of Canadians aren't illegally crossing the northern border into America. That's because Canada has a good economy, a strong middle class, and a workable society. Mexico has none of those things, despite having fabulous wealth in the form of oil and other fossil fuels and two spectacular coastlines, where tourists flock. ... There's no reason Canada should be prosperous and Mexico not" ("O'Reilly Factor," 5/17).

"Scarborough Country" also led with the immigration debate. MSNBC's Scarborough: "What does one do when 80 percent of Americans think you stink to the core? Congress answered that question today by voting to build a fence" (5/17).

Lou Dobbs remained outraged. Anderson Cooper was on the border.

And "Countdown" led with the House Ethic Cmte actions against Reps. Bob Ney (R-OH) and William Jefferson (D-LA). Washington Post's Milbank: "The country is getting the impression that House ethics is an oxymoron, but they have now decided to go after these two gentlemen, one Republican, one Democrat. Pretty simple reason here, the Justice Department is after both of them. There are actual genuine investigations going on in both cases. So here you have sort of a foot race now. Can the congressional ethics folks get to the bottom of this before the actual federal prosecutors do? I've got my money on the prosecutors" (MSNBC, 5/17). [EMILY GOODIN]

Checking in this morning with Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA), who we hear has signed on as a co-sponsor of a House resolution formally honoring Capitol Police officers. The measure would officially "Express the gratitude and appreciation of the House of Representatives to the professionalism and dedication of the United States Capitol Police." The story was first reported by WSB-TV in Atlanta.

The House Committee for Standards of Official Conduct, aka, the ethics committee, lives!

After literally more than a year and a half of procedural inaction (and the recent resignation of the ex-Dem ranking member Alan Mollohan), the committee tonight, in the name of chair Doc Hastings (R) and new ranking member Howard Berman (D), announced invesitgations into the actions of one sitting Republican and one sitting Democrat and formally closed the pending complaint against Rep. Tom DeLay.

And the committee announced an inquiry into "possible violations of House Rules and standards" by "alleged co-conspirators and others" of Ex-Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R-CA). For example -- whether "members and staff were provided hotel rooms, limousines, and other services in exchange for performing official acts."

1. The Senate, suddenly energized (thanks to better Frist/WH cooperation) and Bush's speech, compromises on criminal language, endorses a border fence and sanctions a temporary worker program.

2. Karl Rove briefs the House GOP; plaudits from Bill Thomas; doubts from many others. The majority of the majority rule still stands. The bottom line: Bush needs to persuade about 40 House members to change their minds on a guest/temporary/amnesty/whatever program.

3. Rush Limbaugh, still the most listened-to movement conservative on the planet, is in high dudgeon, and Drudge helpfully distributes to millions more this comment: "I can't think of any single issue, in the 18 years I have been on the air, which has Republicans more up in arms than this one."

4. Bush heads to Yuma, AZ tomorrow. J.D. Hayworth promises to give him an earful on AF1.

Hat tip: The Corner

We will let others make of this what they will. Although we will say that the VolPAC site is regularly updated with accomplishments, achievements, podcasts, blogs, etc.

It says:

"There Are No Legislative Achievements to be displayed for this month."

Update: A Frist aide points that out Frist's Senate website is diligent about posting every speech Frist makes and every press release his office generates. The page in question, the aide says, is the result of an HTML glitch.

Ex-Sen. Maj. Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) will visit three early primary states next month with the expressed intention of assessing his chances for a '08 primary bid.

The AP reports that Daschle will be in IA, NH and MI as part of his "thoughtful consideration" of a presidential campaign.

Per the AP: "Daschle said he will be traveling to states to "sound out presidential themes, talk to voters and get a sense of what kind of a reception I might be getting." He also will be campaigning for local candidates."

In the interview, Daschle speaks admiringly of Hillary Clinton.

Since November, Daschle has visited Iowa twice.

In a sign that at least some Democrats do not take his presidential aspirations seriously, his invitation to speak at the state party's Jefferson Jackson dinner last year was tendered in part to not offend the half dozen Democrats who are actively seeking the presidential nomination.

Daschle's PAC, New Leadership For America, has contributed tens of thousands to Democratic candidates. Daschle is gainfully employed as a consultant to a major Washington lobby/law firm and is also a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

Daschle's chief consultant is Steve Hildebrand. Another long-time adviser, Anita Dunn, is putting together the presidential bid of Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN).

Long considered a likely candidate for '04, Daschle was on the verge of running before a late night case of the willies changed his mind literally hours before a scheduled announcement. [MARC AMBINDER]

Democrats haven't been this confident about taking back control of the House since the spring of '96, writes the Hotline's Chuck Todd.

During that cycle, they seemed to have everything going for them -- recruiting, money, etc....

But thanks to a last-minute campaign finance scandal that plagued the party in October, voters stopped short of rewarding Democrats with control and denied President Bill Clinton that magical 50-percent mark he so desperately wanted. Continue reading On The Trail.

Check out our list of
50 Most Competitive House Races

Noticed by everyone:

Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) was in the camera shot behind POTUS during tax signing ceremony.

And why was she taking pictures with her camera phone?

At the Republican conference meeting this a.m., Rep. Ric Keller (R-FL) said the following as he prepared to ask WH DCoS Karl Rove a question about immigration:

"Ladies and Gentlemen, sometimes when you get in bed with Teddy Kennedy, you get more than just a good night's sleep..."

That brought the house down.

Rove briefed the members on immigration and took a few questions before begging off for a previous engagement. The leaders invited him back.

One positive note for the prospects of getting a bill POTUS can sign out of the House, per a source: Rep. Bill Thomas told Rove that President did a great job" during his immig. speech Monday night and that "we all have something we can tout in the plan." [MARC AMBINDER]

Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania, furious over a sneaky legislative pay raise, ousted more than a dozen state senate and house incumbents last night, including the two most powerful GOPers in the legislature.

The easiest frame to apply is that, in this national environment, with efficacy at Filene's basement-levels, incumbents who give the voters a reason to punish them will get punished.

One Republican we talked to last night was jubilant. He believes that the energy in the electorate is proof that the conservative base is not moribund, and that, under the right circumstances, it can be convinced to turn out.

So let's assume, for a moment, that anti-pay-raise/anti-incumbent feeling among GOP base voters was responsible for ousting the Harrisburg machine.

Does that mean that Lynn Swann and Sen. Rick Santorum squeeze out a silver lining from the wipeouts?

Santorum is an incumbent, and a Senate Republican at that, and he is therefore no theoretical beneficiary of conservative anger at the GOP establishment.

One guess is that it might not matter WHY conservatives are angry and voting -- even if paradoxical -- so long as they are angry and voting.

But anecdotal evidence suggests that, on balance, Democrats had more to crow about.

-- Many Democrats who were instruamental in the pay-raise fiasco faced primary challenges, too. And per the Philly Inquirer, only two of them were trailing. The outrage was contained, it seems, to Western and Central PA, home to many of the GOP incumbents.

-- Their preferred Senate nominee, Bob Casey, exceeded his vote expectations by 10 points, which suggests that liberal voting base is more comfortable with him that previously assumed. Republicans, by contrast, are technically, though not at all warmly united around the Swann/Santorun pairing at the top of their ticket.

-- In a special election to fill an open seat in PA's heavily Republican state sen. district 19, Democrat Andrew Dinniman won due in part to a larger-than-anticipated turnout among union workers.

-- Though PA 10 is a Bush + 10 district, a 56 percent victory by an incumbent over an unknown challenger with a Democratic voting history is properly labeled a "near disaster." Democrat Chris Carney is among the most talented of the Dem veteran recruiting class. It's probably too late for the NRCC to push Sherwood out, so they'll probably be forced to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars, to somehow try to render Carney unacceptable to the eastern PA rural residents of the district. [MARC AMBINDER]

Statement from Sen. Cornyn: "This amendment passed with overwhelming, bipartisan support, yet just a few weeks ago the minority leader wouldn't even allow a vote on it because it was not, it in his opinion, a good amendment. But this amendment simply closes a loophole and strengthens the bill, and it will help keep Americans safe by ensuring that no felons or repeat criminal offenders will receive amnesty or citizenship."

Another barbed press release from Speaker Hastert:

"Any calls from the Senate for an across-the-board cut to make room for a bloated supplemental will be met by a busy signal in the House. The House will not join a shell-game spending spree with taxpayer dollars. President Bush requested $92 billion for the War on Terror and Hurricane Katrina relief spending. The House has passed a bill that exercised fiscal restraint. The Senate needs to throw overboard, unnecessary add-ons and help us get the needed funds to our troops in the field and our fellow citizens suffering the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina."

Another big test for the POTUS/Frist immigration push: whether the Cornyn/Kyl amendment passes. A vote is expected by 10:15 a.m ET.

The text, which is included after the jump. It "closes a loophole in S.2611 that would allow criminal aliens to obtain legal status."

Coming next: whether illegal immigrants should be required to learn English.

There was a doctor in the "House" and pundits on call as immigration reform returned as the main topic of TV last night.

CNN's Dobbs: "One day after the president's prime-time immigration and border security speech, the split between the Senate and the House over our illegal immigration and border security crisis is widening, not narrowing" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/16).

FNC's Cameron: "With immigration reforms central to his election-year domestic agenda after last night's primetime speech to the nation, President Bush, during an appearance with the Australian prime minister, renewed his call for civility in the polarizing debate" ("Special Report," 5/16).

AG Alberto Gonzales defended Bush's plan on "NewsHour," "On the Record," and the "Situation Room."

A STAR IS BORN

And the first reviews of WH spokesperson Tony Snow were in. (He also made the morning show rounds this a.m.)

Time's Allen: "Tony Snow came across as very confident today. A lot of his answers were very short, crisp. ... He was cool on the stand" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/16).

FNC's Goler: "The president's new press secretary was welcomed by an overflow crowd and a smattering of applause" ("Special Report," 5/16).

CNN's Malveaux: "He survived his first White House briefing, for now, eager to do battle another day" ("Situation Room," 5/16).

Newsweek's Fineman: "My impression was that he was running around on the backfield a lot. With Scott McClellan, you just had a guy who tucked the ball under his arm and, you know, fell down, didn't do much. Tony Snow is trying to be a little fancier, he's trying to be a little more aggressive" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/16).

CAJUN POLITICS

And Chris Matthews was in New Orleans for the mayoral debate. Matthews: "I learned tonight, once again, as we've all learned our lives, it's far easier to go after an incumbent than it is to be an incumbent after such a catastrophe has hit this city" ("Live & Direct," MSNBC, 5/16). [EMILY GOODIN]

PA 08 (D)   78%     PA 10 (R)     68%  

MURPHY      66%     Rep. SHERWOOD    57%
WARREN      34%     SCOTT            43%

The PA Pay-Raisers: Re-Rlection Percentages

Jubelirer (R)    35% (with 70% in -- Sen. Pres Pro-Tem --LOSES)
Brightbill (R)  -- Sen. Maj. Leader CONCEDED DEFEAT at 9:59 pm ET
Smith (R)        53% (with 52% in -- House Maj. Leader)
DeWeese (D)**    60% (with 86% in - WINS)

Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA), his popularity weighed down by a messy extramartial affair, narrowly survived a primary challenge from a virtual unknown with a Democratic voting history.

With more than half of the vote counted, Sherwood led challenger Kathy Scott 56 percent to 44 percent.

The hair of a margin signals a a more competitive race for Sherwood in November, when he faces Democrat Chris Carney, a former Naval Reserve officer. [MARC AMBINDER]

A tire salesman just took down the machine. Well, at least one of the men behind the Harrisburg Republican machine. Republican businessman Mike Folmer handedly beat State Senate Majority Leader David "Chip" Brightbill (R) by an almost 2-to-1 margin, and Blaine Co. Commis. John Eichelberger (R) is well on his way to beating State Sen. Pro Temp Bob Jubelirer (R).

A Midsummers Night Dream -- Or Was It?

In the days following July 4th last summer, Pennsylvania state lawmakers voted to raise their own paychecks by an average of one third, making them one of the highest paid state legislatures in the country. The bill -- voted on in the wee hours of the morning and without any floor debate -- was signed by Gov. Ed Rendell (D), who will now face ex-Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann (R) in November.

Although the pay raise was eventually repealed last fall, tonight proves that voter anger on the issue never subsided. It's been well reported that about 1/3rd of the state lawmakers are facing primary challengers -- the most in twenty years. And now Brightbill, one of the most powerful lawmakers in the state, has lost to a political newcomer only shows that the statehouse could have significant turnover come next session.

For Rendell, this means he needs to distance himself from Harrisburg as much as possible. It wouldn't be hard to do with a heavily GOP statehouse, except for the fact that Democratic governor signed the legislation into law and publicly approved of it post-facto. Couple the pay hike with no property tax reform plan to date, and there's the reason why the man they named Rendellphia after is struggling against a conservative former athlete from southwestern Pennsylvania [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ].

Statement on Primary

A release...

Read the transcript.

The new press secretary managed to keep the lid on his first briefing, one that featured eager reporters, the NSA phone number collection controversy and a politically precarious immigration proposal heating the pot.

Snow's main job seemed to be an attempt to keep Bush's immigration proposal from being (a) fleshed out and (b) torn apart by the press and others before the House and Senate can meet in conference to create a compromise bill. Snow said that many people have given opinions about the president's proposal without having time to think about it.

"Also as people are read into the program, let's see what they have to say. Let's see what happens as they read into the details."

Snow, like Bush, wasn't talking so much to the cameras, but really talking to Congress.

True to his title, Snow fought back when NBC's David Gregory brought up House GOP characterizations that the president's plan was close to amnesty -- a lethal charge for Bush's conservative base. Snow defended 'earned citizenship' by vigorously listing the penalties and requirements illegal immigrants must engage "and when all of that is done, you get to go to the back of the line, and you wait ... " [JUSTIN MILLER]

If you're among those who believe that AR Gov. Mike Huckabee is a major player in the '08 presidential sweepstakes, the following three quotations count as news.

Huckabee was in DC today and met with reporters over lunch. We'll have more in tomorrow's Hotline.

1. Huckabee, who supports guest worker programs and is not an immigration hard-liner, said he believes opposition to comprehensive immigration reform is 'irrational in many cases.' And he did not discount the causative factor of racism.

"If I were to say that some of it is driven by just sheer racism, I think I would be telling you the truth. I've had conversations with people that and it became very evident that what they really didn't like was that people didn't look like them, didn't talk like them, didn't celebrate ht holidays like they do, and they just had a problem with it. Now, that is not to say that everyone who is really fired out about immigration is racist. They're not."

2. Asked directly if he believes humans caused global warming, Huckabee says that while he is "not a scientist," he thinks "we ought to act as if that is the case. There is never a downside when it comes to conserving national resources."

3. "I think every American should have a visceral reaction," he said of the USA Today story on phone monitoring. "If we don't have a visceral reaction, I'd be worried about that. Now, I might come to a conclusion that I'm willing to let you troll through my phone records if you think you're going to find Mohammed Atta. But I want to make darn sure that you're going to do that." Government, he said, should be "very careful [about] getting into the private lives of American citizens." [MARC AMBINDER]

Check out these headlines from the Midwest:

Detroit Free Press: "Bush seeks beefed-up border"
Star Tribune: "Bush: Let's get tough at border"
Des Moines Register: "Bush plans to send Guard force to border"
Kansas City Star: "Bush's answers begin with National Guard at Border"
Philly Inquirer: "'Full Control of Border'"
Columbus Dispatch: "Bush says we must get control of border"

Announced in a release today: "pursuant to the request of Connecticut NOW, NOW PAC is endorsing" cable co. exec. Ned Lamont (D) for CT SEN. The release notes Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) is one of 7 of Dems "who have promised not to filibuster any of President Bush's judicial nominees, except under 'extraordinary circumstances.' Well if packing the Supreme Court with abortion opponents like John Roberts and Samuel Alito is not an extraordinary circumstance, then we don't know what is." They also note Lamont's opposition to the Iraq War and says he "recognizes... the right of everyone to marry the person they (sic) choose regardless of gender."
[QUINN MCCORD]

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

VT Gov. Jim Douglas' (R) admin seems to be full of potential stars, with several members of his cabinet being mentioned in the "not if, when" categoy. Dems have reason to crow as well, with a state party not only full of top-notch talent, but also talent that's politically savvy enough to wait their turn. Instead of a divisive primary, several future stars who wanted to make the leap now deferred to help State Sen. Pres. Peter Welch (D) hold on to the state's lone Congressional seat. The wrench in the Dems' cogs is the state's Progressive Party, and followers of this column will note that VT is the only state for which we've included a third party. That's one reason, say Dems, that VT's LG always seems to be a GOPer: Progressives always manage to siphon enough votes away from Dems to guarantee a GOP win. [REID WILSON]

The Human Rights Campaign is asking Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist not to demagogue gays to score points with moral conservatives. The gay rights lobby reminds Frist that Laura Bush told an interviewer she doesn't believe a same-sex marriage amendment should be used as a "campaign tool."

This reminds us of the Log Cabin Republicans' attempt to remind Republican delegates to the '04 GOP convention that Dick Cheney supported rights for gay couples.

It didn't work then, and it won't work now, but it's worth pondering, for a moment, how three of the four most important Republicans in the country -- L. Bush, D and L Cheney -- are fairly friendly to gay rights.

I was on the "Situation Room" set when CNN showed Pres. Bush giving the opening lines of his speech. The fault was with NBC (the pool network) and not with CNN. The "Situation Room" had been showing the slate with the presidential seal all throughout the broadcast, along with a countdown to Bush's speech. In fact, Wolf Blitzer pointed that out to viewers earlier in the program. He noted: "I want to point out to our viewers, that president seal you see, that's the feed coming in from the White House. Once the president speaks in the Oval Office, a minute or so after 8:00 p.m. Eastern, that will become the picture we will see live from the Oval Office."

So when the feed switched to the president, CNN had already been showing it on one of the "Situation Room"'s many screens. But the net quickly realized there was a problem and cut back to Blitzer, who handled the event easily, explaining to viewers: "I think what happened ... is that the president is rehearsing. ... And the pool, network pool, inadvertently went to the president as he's rehearsing." [EMILY GOODIN]

Who needs "Law & Order" when Pres. Bush is playing border cop.

All the broadcast and cable nets had coverage of Bush's speech. The broadcast nets quickly returned to regular programming. NBC had Tim Russert discuss the speech with Brian Williams but ABC just had a wrap from Elizabeth Vargas while CBS had a quick bite from Bob Schieffer.

Here are some highlights from last night's cable coverage:

CNN's Dobbs: "President Bush tonight making a bold attempt to overcome opposition in Congress and among the American people to his guest-worker program for millions of illegal aliens" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/15).

MSNBC's Matthews: "The one thing in his speech that bugged me, and it may bug other people who pay close attention to language, was this. He talked about every human being having dignity. Of course, that's, you know, that's unexceptional. Of course that's true" ("Countdown," 5/15).

Newsweek's Wolffe: "Really, the problem here is trying to take control, not only of the process in Congress, but the kind of news debate that's going on on talk radio among his base here, where he's really out of touch, I think, on the whole immigration issue. Whether he's gone far enough on this, whether he's been too soft or too tough, I don't know, we'll have to see" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/15).

FNC's O'Reilly: "Well, in the past six years since I called for troops on the border. ... 'Talking Points' is proud to have advocated a solution to the border problem early on, and once again we applaud President Bush for coming around" ("O'Reilly Factor," 5/15).

CNN's Roberts: "He's trying to walk the fence that he'll never build along the border" ("AC 360," 5/15).

Weekly Standard's Kristol: "The core of the president's argument, which I wish he had actually developed a little more and elaborated on, is that you have to have comprehensive immigration reform" (FNC, 5/15).

THE MEN WHO WANT HIS JOB GET THEIR WORD IN

Sen. George Allen (R-VA): "I'll tell you what I've been advocating for many years, and that is we need to secure the border. And I'm glad that the president has come around to recognizing that we need more enforcement at the border with personnel, detention centers, actual fences, and virtual fences" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist: "I thought his proposal tonight, his speech tonight was balanced. I thought it was specific. I thought it was reasoned. He laid out a very, very specific five-point plan addressing what goes on at the border" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM): "I'm very skeptical as a border governor that deals with this issue every day of the National Guard deployed at the border. We need more border patrol agents, more sensors, more equipment. I need the National Guard in New Mexico to help with forest fires, emergency preparedness. The problem is that many of these guardsmen their mission is not border security. I'm concerned that they're tired from Iraq and Afghanistan" ("LKL," CNN, 5/15).

Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO): "Some of these governors are sort of on our side. Some are opposed to having the Guard. Some are totally supportive. So, there's a lot of questions that are unanswered" ("Situation," MSNBC, 5/15).

THERE'S ALWAYS A HOLLYWOOD CONNECTION

Actor Edward James Olmos: "He's got a big problem. He's not going to be able to tame either side" ("LKL," CNN, 5/15). [EMILY GOODIN]

"While I appreciate the president's willingness to tackle big problems, I have real concerns about moving forward with a guest worker program or a plan to address those currently in the United States illegally until we have adequately addressed our serious border security problems."

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC): "President Bush made one step forward and one step backward during tonight's address. I am encouraged by his plan to increase our security by positioning National Guard troops on the border. This will provide essential -- but temporary -- security along our porous and vulnerable borders. The better alternative is to enact a comprehensive border security program by constructing fences, bolstering our border patrols and improving our surveillance capabilities." "I strongly disagree with the President's call for a guest worker program. A guest worker program is nothing more than amnesty wearing make-up --it's easier to look at, but just as ugly underneath. The simple truth is that if you break the law to come to this country, you will not respect it once you're here."

Hugh Hewitt: President Bush did exactly what he had to do tonight: Hit the middle, agreeing to the fence, to a large increase in Border Patrol personnel and funding, tamper-proof identification, National Guard back-up of ICE for at least a year, the end of catch-and-release, blunt talk on the impossibility of mass deportation, an insistence on English, and a commitment to a guest worker program that will take pressure off enforcement by funneling large numbers of immigrant workers into the legal line.

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA): "The President's speech was very helpful with assurances on border control and employer sanctions which sets the stage for guest workers and an accommodation for the 11 million undocumented immigrants. On the possible use of the National Guard, we will have to legislate carefully to circumscribe the Guards' duties so we don't get them involved in law enforcement or activities which are inappropriate."

Maj. Leader John Boehner (R): "House Republicans have responded to the concerns of the American people by passing a strong border security bill that reflects our commitment to re-establishing basic respect for our immigration laws and sealing our border against illegal entry. If the Senate passes an immigration bill, I'm committed to working with Chairman Sensenbrenner and House Republicans to ensure we make border security our first priority and meet our commitments to the American people."

Tonight, I want to speak directly to Members of the House and the Senate: An immigration reform bill needs to be comprehensive, because all elements of this problem must be addressed together -- or none of them will be solved at all. The House has passed an immigration bill. The Senate should act by the end of this month -- so we can work out the differences between the two bills, and Congress can pass a comprehensive bill for me to sign into law.

America needs to conduct this debate on immigration in a reasoned and respectful tone. Feelings run deep on this issue -- and as we work it out, all of us need to keep some things in mind. We cannot build a unified country by inciting people to anger, or playing on anyone's fears, or exploiting the issue of immigration for political gain. We must always remember that real lives will be affected by our debates and decisions, and that every human being has dignity and value no matter what their citizenship papers say.

Therefore, I support a temporary worker program that would create a legal path for foreign workers to enter our country in an orderly way, for a limited period of time. This program would match willing foreign workers with willing American employers for jobs Americans are not doing. Every worker who applies for the program would be required to pass criminal background checks. And temporary workers must return to their home country at the conclusion of their stay.

It is neither wise nor realistic to round up millions of people, many with deep roots in the United States, and send them across the border. There is a rational middle ground between granting an automatic path to citizenship for every illegal immigrant, and a program of mass deportation. That middle ground recognizes that there are differences between an illegal immigrant who crossed the border recently -- and someone who has worked here for many years, and has a home, a family, and an otherwise clean record.

Despite this progress, we do not yet have full control of the border, and I am determined to change that. Tonight I am calling on Congress to provide funding for dramatic improvements in manpower and technology at the border. By the end of 2008, we will increase the number of Border Patrol officers by an additional 6,000. When these new agents are deployed, we will have more than doubled the size of the Border Patrol during my Presidency.

And I will ask Congress for additional funding and legal authority, so we can end 'catch and release' at the southern border once and for all. When people know that they will be caught and sent home if they enter our country illegally, they will be less likely to try to sneak in.

The issue of immigration stirs intense emotions -- and in recent weeks, Americans have seen those emotions on display. On the streets of major cities, crowds have rallied in support of those in our country illegally. At our southern border, others have organized to stop illegal immigrants from coming in. Across the country, Americans are trying to reconcile these contrasting images. And in Washington, the debate over immigration reform has reached a time of decision. Tonight, I will make it clear where I stand, and where I want to lead our country on this vital issue.

Rep. Chris Cannon (R-UT 03) represents one of the most conservative, pro-Bush districts in the country. Like Bush, he's getting hammered by parts of the Republican base over immigration. Unlike Bush, however, the base might throw him out of office next month.

At the Utah state GOP convention this weekend, a majority of the 1,100 district delegates voted against him. Despite a near-perfect rating from the American Conservative Union, he has taken flack from his party's base over his support of guest-worker legislation. Self-funding candidate John Jacob was the recipient of their discontent, winning 52% at the convention.

Cannon still has a shot at winning. Since neither candidate won 60% of the vote, the two face each other in a 6/27 primary, open to all registered voters.

But his lackluster performance indicates the Republican base harbors significant frustration towards members unwilling to crack down on border security. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA 10) hasn't faced a major-party opponent since his '00 re-election.

But tomorrow, Sherwood -- amid scandal over an extramarital affair -- faces atty. Kathy Scott (R), who has spent virtually nothing for her primary bid. Still, he's taking her very seriously. He spent $206K in 4/06 alone, mostly on radio ads and direct mail portraying Scott as a Dem in disguise. And last week, Pres. Bush robo-called voters in the district, asking voters to support Sherwood.

In past primaries this year, challenged safe incumbents have won at least 70 percent of the vote; most with over 80 percent.

Sherwood received 54,115 votes in the '04 primary, running unopposed. If GOP turnout drops significantly or Scott receives more than 30 percent, Sherwood could be in trouble.

With a win, he'll be facing naval reserve officer Chris Carney (D) in the fall. Carney is a political newcomer but spoke authoritatively on policy issues in a HRH interview and came across better than more highly-touted Dem vet candidates.

But even a top-tier candidate would face steep obstacles in PA 10, which voted 60% for Bush in '04. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

--HRC goes through blue pantsuits?
--Tammy Duckworth goes through campaign managers?

http://oneamericacommittee.com

By our count -- and we do keep tabs -- this is the second major redesign for Edwards's site in less than three months.

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

Dems are pragmatic in UT and seem to have their sights set on realistic goals. They're concerned with keeping seats in and around Salt Lake City, building their minorities in the state legislature (which currently stands at 19 to the GOPers' 56 in the House and 8 to 21 in the Sen) and just not embarrassing themselves. GOPers, meanwhile, are already focusing on '12, when UT is expected to gain a Congressional seat. The St. George area in Southern UT -- arguably the home of the most beautiful nat'l parks in America -- could be the home of a new Congressman, and people are already lining up. The '12 Gov race is getting attention already as well, as the incumbent -- we're making the safe assumption that he wins in '08 -- will be term-limited out. [REID WILSON]

Pres. Bush will ask those Americans twitchy and angry about unchecked illegal immigration to summon, from their compassionate souls, a reserve of common sense.

To base voters unquestionably agitated by their president's purported apostasy, Bush will counsel patience and ask them to consider holding two of their beliefs in tandem: that America cannot remain American unless it secures its borders and America will not remain American if it tries to banish the millions who are here illegally.

The president is expected to say that the government will end its "catch and release" policy of non-Mexican immigrants along the Southwest border by the end of the year.

In more than a dozen conference calls today, White House and Republican political officials are urging surrogates to remind audiences of already-in-progress efforts to shore up the border and to frame the future of the immigration debate as a balancing act between national security and economic progress.

The surrogates have been asked to dial down expectations about Nat'l guard troops; they'll be told to say that the troops will "support" existing law enforcement officials and that their deployment will not wear the forces too thin.

The WH is calling the program to allow aliens to earn a more favorable status a "temporary worker" program. Apparently, "guest" doesn't poll well.

The WH and Congressional Republican leaders hope the speech will create better conditions for Senate negotiators to conclude work on a Senate bill by the end of next week. There was plenty of will the last time the Senate tried to move a bill, but the chamber ran out of time. Maj. Leader Frist and Min. Leader Reid have agreed, this time, to two full weeks of debate. Frist will lock negotiators in a room if he has to.

FAIR, a leading anti-amnesty group, calls the troops-to-the-border plan "wool" over the "eyes" of Americans. FAIR: "The President believes through this political stunt he can sound tough on security and the American people will reverse their overwhelming disapproval of his amnesty schemes."

Thursday, Bush will travel to the border along Yuma, AZ. It will be a nice photo-op.

For passage: none of this matters, ultimately, if House Republicans don't capitulate. BTW: here's one reason why immigration politics scares the bejeebers out of the WH. [MARC AMBINDER]

ABC News's Brian Ross and ace investigator Rich Esposito report that one of their sources told them, in person, that the federal government is monitoring (though not recording)outgoing and incoming cell phone traffic.

ABC News does not know how the government determined who we are calling, or whether our phone records were provided to the government as part of the recently-disclosed NSA collection of domestic phone calls.

The official who warned ABC News said there was no indication our phones were being tapped so the content of the conversation could be recorded.

More, on the mood of the electorate: "I know our own polls. I love reading your polls. I love this mania that substitutes polls for substance. There's going to be a special Betty Ford addiction for those who are addicted to a regular poll numbers. The polls I believe that get run through the RNC. I look at them all the time. Americans like this person. [His] personal approval ratings are in the 60s. Job approval is lower. What that says to me is that people like him, they respect him, he's someone they feel a connection with, but they're just sour on the war. And that's the way it's going to be. We'll just fight our way through."

WH DCoS Karl Rove spoke at the American Enterprise Institute this a.m. and to the surprise of some, he took questions. Asked about his role in the CIA leak investigation, he declined to comment, referring the questioner to a statement released by his attorney. Rove: "I have nothing more to add. Nice try, though."

On immigration, Rove ducked a question from CNN's John King on what would happen if the wing of "Tom Tancredo took over" the GOP on the issue. Rove: It's a problem of security, a problem of economy. It's a problem that we will have to attack on several different fronts if we are resolve it." Rove said the Bush admin was doing a "better job" on apprehending illegals than he is given credit for. Rove said the admin's goal is to end catch-and-release policies "along the Southwest border by the end of the year." But, he said: "We will not be able to secure the border unless we have a temporary worker program." More Rove: "This is about getting the right policy and politics will take care of itself."

Rove, on the mood of the country: "Look, we're in a sour time. I readily admit it. To be in the middle of a war where people turn on their television set and see people dying is not something that makes people happy and optimistic and upbeat. I heard the same kind of language about the 2004 election. We're going to be just fine on the fall elections. We stand for.. a strong national defense, a [complete win in] the war on terrorism, which involves victory in Iraq, , strong national defense, economic policies that are pro-growth involving tax cuts and free trade, fiscal restraint in the budget process. Our opponents at this point stand for little more than ... obstructionism." More Rove: "The American people are a center-right country presented with center-right candidates will vote center-right candidates."

Rove, on the war: "I think the war looms over everything. No doubt about it."

Rove, on conservative critics of admin. fiscal restraint: "They're missing the facts." More Rove: "Would people like to do more? You Bet. But the difficulty of getting progress in the real world ... requires a lot of energy and a lot of nerve."

Asked about the feasibility of Soc. Sec. individual retirement accounts, Rove: "Personal accounts do not solve the problem of Soc. Sec. "The do solve the problems facing the individual retirees."

As a jaunty WH DCoS Karl Rove prepares to speak to the AEI this hour, the WH press corps and the liberal blogosphere is buzzing about this report.

Mark Corallo, a spokesman for Rove's legal team, tells us: "The stories are completely and utterly untrue. There's not an ounce of truth to any of them. They are totally false." Corallo says there was no meeting with Fitzgerald, no indictment handed down, and nothing so much resembling any hint that Rove is in greater legal jeopardy.

And Robert Luskin, Rove's attorney, says that "Rove's status has not changed." [MARC AMBINDER]

Here are the top two quotations highlighted in a morning dispatch sent to reporters.

"The event's mission, Perdue said, was to encourage responsible behavior for teens and reward the suburban Atlanta high school for its creative efforts to tackle underage drinking."

(Photo credit: The Associated Press).

If you missed Al Gore on SNL, you should check it out.

From Newsweek's press release:

--FIFTY-THREE PERCENT OF AMERICANS FEEL COLLECTING
A DATABASE OF U.S.-BASED CALLS GOES TOO FAR IN INVADING PRIVACY
-- 57 PERCENT SAY ADMINISTRATION HAS GONE TOO FAR IN EXPANDING PRESIDENTIAL POWER; 50 PERCENT SAY HISTORY
-- WILL VIEW BUSH AS A BELOW AVERAGE PRESIDENT

BTW: Bush's approval rating is 35 percent.

Keep in mind -- the instantaneous ABC News/Post poll showed a different locus of public opinion. Was it conducted before most Americans either learned about the NSA program or had time to digest its implications? Or are we dealing with another case of "it depends how you word the question?"

The Hotline's Emily Goodin posts this dispatch from Liberty University:

LYNCHBURG, Va. -- Friendship and forgiveness highlighted John McCain's address to graduates at Liberty University. It was a speech filled with tales of McCain's own graduation, the events in Iraq and the situation in Darfur. But it was the ending which was most poignant, and a subtle reminder of why McCain was at this Jerry Falwell-established university. He spoke of how people need to be "respectful of the goodness in each other." McCain: "I have not always heeded this injunction myself, and I regret it very much."

And as the Bible teaches through parable, so McCain delivered his lesson through the tale of his friendship with David Ifshin, a man he described as someone who "I might have considered my enemy." Ifshin protested the Vietnam War and traveled to Hanoi to criticize America's involvement in that country. His speech was broadcast to American prisoners of war, including John McCain. McCain: "I thought it a grievous wrong then, and I still do."
But, McCain added, years later, Ifshin had "an epiphany." He noted Ifshin realized that even though he still believed what he said years earlier, he realized he "let his criticism temporarily blind him to his country's generosity and the goodness that most Americans possess, and he regretted his failing deeply." When the two men met several years later, McCain said he "bore little animosity for anyone because of what they had done or not done during the Vietnam War." McCain: "I realized he had not been my enemy, but my countryman." He said they "moved beyond our old grievance" and while they "disagreed over much," they maintained a strong friendship. He concluded his tale by noting he spoke at Ifshin's funeral.

And speaking under the guise in the situation in Iraq, McCain noted people have the right to disagree with one another. McCain: "If an American feels the decision was unwise, then they should state their opposition, and argue for another course. It is your right and your obligation. I respect you for it. I would not respect you if you chose to ignore such an important responsibility."

He received a standing ovation from the 2,458 graduates in the standing-room only auditorium -- both after his speech and when he was introduced. And Falwell was gracious, saying of McCain: "We today pay tribute to a great American." However, McCain did not stay for the full ceremony, leaving as soon as he delivered his remarks. Falwell excused him, noting the senator had obligations in Utah.
[EMILY GOODIN]

Actual statement from Katherine Harris' campaign. Here it is in full:

***************
The Katherine Harris for U.S. Senate campaign welcomed the reiteration of support expressed by U.S. Senator Mel Martinez in comments he made at the National Press Club today.

"A number of people have filed today. [Katherine Harris] is by far the most serious of those candidates and I think she will be the nominee. I wish her well. And I think that the best thing she can do is to focus her race on the issues and her opponent and their differences and why she would be a great senator from the state of Florida for this country. I wish her well. And I will be endorsing her -- if I have not already done so. I think I already have, but I will be, I am sure, campaigning with her," Martinez said.

On Hotline TV this week:

WV GOPers have a new Sen candidate and NE GOPers have a new 800-lb. gorilla (hint: it's the guy in the middle). Bringing you the winners and losers from this week's WV and NE primaries.

We take a look at Maria Cantwell's pro-war stand and the WA Dem party, wonder where Karl is and question the value of commencement addresses and hair in this week's Fact or Fiction.

OR's the next primary on the list, and we see signs that Gov. Kulongoski (D) is nervous. But who's gonna win?

We lay our money down on the Over/Unders. This week's line: An indie candidate for Prez, Lamont vs. Lieberman and McCain's track record in Gov races.

And, of course, the fastest 2 minutes in politics.

At the Christian Science Monitor breakfast this a.m., NRSC chair Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) said she was "truly excited" about the NRSC's recruits this cycle, but conceded "there's no question that the winds has been in our faces for many months." She began by touting LG Michael Steele (R-MD), state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), Rep. Mark Kennedy (R-MN), ex-Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R-WA), industrialist John Raese (R-WV), ex-Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts (R-NE), and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R-MI) (acknowledging there's still a primary in MI.)

As in previous pressers, she emphasized the lone open GOP seat (TN) to the 4 open Dem seats, but acknowledged GOP incumbents "are under no illusion" of the rough nat'l terrain and "are preparing for aggressive, tough races." She said nat'l trends "will play some role, but we'll be focusing" on the one-to-one match-ups and the issues which distinguish individual races. Dole, on nat'l trends affecting SEN races: "Our job is to minimize that." She said NRSC fundraising is up 29% from where it was at this point last cycle.

     
Dole was asked about several individual races.

• OH: She said voters will learn about Rep. Sherrod Brown's (D) "liberal" record as compared to Sen. Mike DeWine's (R) "mainstream" record.
• WA: She spoke glowingly of McGavick, and noted ex-Green Panther Aaron Dixon's (G) challenge to Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) as a complication for Dems.
• FL: "If no one else has filed, (Rep.) Katherine (Harris) will work her head off. ... The focus will be on (Sen.) Bill Nelson (D)." Asked if Harris can win: "Six months is a lifetime in politics."
• On the nastiness of the TN GOP primary: "They need to focus more on (Rep.) Harold Ford Jr. (D)"
• WV: "The state has really moved out from under (Sen.) Robert Byrd (D) in terms of mainstream values." She noted Byrd's work with Moveon.org and his advertising on DailyKos. She called Raese "a great candidate" and said she had shown his TV ad on docking congressional pay to the Senate GOP caucus.
• On Sen. George Allen (R-VA): "I don't put him in the category of concern."
• RI: "I'm not even going to entertain that (Sen.) Linc Chafee (R) won't win that primary." She noted the withdrawal of Sec/State Matt Brown (D) probably helps Chafee bring indie voters into the GOP primary.
• She characterized Dem attacks on Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) as "pure character assassination" and said voters are "resenting it out there."
• Asked if any potential GOP recruits had turned her down because of their concerns with the nat'l environment: "No." She said Dems had had their own recruiting failures in ME and RI (Reps. Langevin/Kennedy) and wanting, but failing, to clear the field for Rep. Ben Cardin (D-MD)
• Asked if she thinks the "obstructionist" label will work in '06 as it did in '04: "Yeah, I do."

--The AP: "A few missteps" and deference to Dana Perino.

--ABC News' Martha Raddatz

--NBC News' Kelly O'Donnell

His first on-camera briefing: Tuesday!

WH DCoS Karl Rove, speaking at the Council for National Policy's 25th anniversary celebration today at the Ritz Carlton in Tyson's Corner, VA.

"I am absolutely confident we will have a Republican Senate and a Republican House"

Many of the Democrats' top Republican targets this year are in districts where Democratic positions on hot-button social issues are viewed unfavorably. Their ability to connect with anti-abortion rights, churchgoing voters might go a long way toward determining their midterm performance.

Rep. John Hostettler, R-Ind., is a perennial target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He has won narrowly every two years with loyal support from Christian conservatives -- despite refusing to raise money for re-election. Still, Democrats are enthused about Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, who earned accolades for his leadership after tornadoes hit his county last year.

Already, cultural issues have come to the forefront of this campaign. Ellsworth has talked tough about cracking down on illegal immigration, and pledged to protect the Pledge of Allegiance.

The district's demographics, though, are tough on Democrats. President Bush got 62 percent in 2004. In March, the DCCC criticized Hostettler after he said on the House floor that "Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." Their memo responded: "That's not representation. That's absurd." Quoting Hostettler might help raise money among national Democrats, but his remarks likely resonate with core constituents back home. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Not newsworthy... just interesting.

"*UPDATE: THE GAGGLE BY THE PRESS SECRETARY WILL NOW BE AT 9:30 AM TODAY, MAY 12, 2006, IN THE PRESS SECRETARY'S OFFICE*"

Solving crimes on "CSI," solving the latest wire tapping scandal on cable.

The fallout from the USA Today story on the NSA's phone call database continued last night. NPR's Liasson: "The interesting thing to me about this story is that the New York Times must be feeling pretty bad today because this was -- they did several stories about this quite a while ago" ("Special Report," FNC, 5/11).

FNC's O'Reilly: "Now I have no problem with this personally. If the government was listening to my calls or secretly taping them, then I'd have a big problem. But simply trying to ascertain where the calls are going is no big deal to me" ("O'Reilly Factor," 5/11).

MSNBC's Olbermann: "The good news, if you lost Aunt Gertrude's number, or that of the girl you met, maybe the NSA has it in your file" ("Countdown," 5/11).

MSNBC's Scarborough: "Memo to the president and congressional leaders who signed up on this lousy program -- We don't trust you anymore" ("Scarborough Country," 5/11).

CNN's Cafferty: "We better all hope nothing happens to Arlen Specter ... because he might be all that is standing between us and a full-blown dictatorship in this country" ("Situation Room," 5/11).

Plenty of pols were on talking about the issue. CNN's Koppel: "Reaction to this story from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle was fast and furious" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/11).

Sens. Kit Bond (R-MO) and Patrick Leahy (D-VT) kicked off the discussion on "NewsHour." Sen. John Cornyn was in the "Situation Room."

Newt Gingrich: "I'm not going to defend the indefensible. ... I'm prepared to defend a very aggressive anti-terrorist campaign, and I'm prepared to defend the idea that the government ought to know who's making the calls, as long as that information is only used against terrorists, and as long as the Congress knows that it's underway. But I don't think the way they've handled this can be defended by reasonable people. It is sloppy" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/11).

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "It is an embarrassment to think that members of Congress didn't know, weren't brought into the loop, didn't have a basic understanding of what we are trying to achieve" ("PZ Now," CNN, 5/11).

Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) was on "Hardball," praising Qwest Communications for not participating. Qwest is headquarted in CO.

And several reports commented on Pres. Bush's quick response. FNC's Cameron: "Bush moved swiftly to reassure law-abiding citizens that they are not being spied on as part of the war on terror" ("Special Report," 5/11). Leahy: "I think the president was probably wise and well-advised to give the statement he did" ("NewsHour," PBS, 5/11). [EMILY GOODIN]

KY Gov. Ernie Fletcher has been indicted. It's for misdemeanors in connection with his hiring practices. Fletcher's relationship with key GOPers, including the state's GOP kingmaker, Mitch McConnell, hasn't been great. It will be interesting to see if there is a "resign" drumbeat from the right or whether Fletcher successfully chalks this up to "partisan politics." We've seen other pols stay in office when fighting "misdemeanors."

The South Carolina Democratic Leadership Council received about 2,200 votes in an admittedly self-selected "e-Poll".

However, in the interest of being interesting:

"Edwards Wins e-Poll, Folks Pessimistic About Future, Concerned About Education, Mustard Based Bar-B-Que is Favorite"

"The most anticipated question on the survey asked participants who they would vote for if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today. John Edwards, a native son of the Palmetto State and winner of the '04 SC Presidential Primary, remains very popular."

Republican insiders and leading GOP members of Congress surveyed by National Journal say Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has the best chance to win the party's 2008 presidential nomination.

A whopping 61 percent of insiders surveyed ranked McCain number one. He roared past last year's winner, Sen. George Allen (R-VA), who was the top choice of 19 percent of the insiders.

The survey is published in the new edition of National Journal .

Per NJ: "In December, McCain and Allen evenly divided first-place votes. Now McCain holds a 3-1 edge. Allen's grip on second place may not be firm. He ranked ahead of Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney ecause of his popularity among his Capitol Hill colleagues. Among GOP
Congressional Insiders, Allen received 10 first-place votes while Romney received none. Among GOP Political Insiders, though, Allen and Romney each got 10 first-place votes."

A sample comment on McCain: "McCain can beat Hillary. And that fact alone may motivate a lot of conservatives and GOP-establishment types to support him. But he should ignore the inevitable attacks from The New York Times et al. as he courts conservatives, and [should] remember that he must first secure the nomination."

A sample comment on Allen: "He has cooled off in recent months, but the potential is still there. A tougher-than-expected Senate race may keep him occupied and drain off his cash, delaying and perhaps destroying his chance to become the conservative alternative to McCain."

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) finished third with 10 percent, performance by six percentage points.

Results from the Dem survey were largely unchanged; Sen. Hillary Clinton took 72 percent of first place votes, followed by ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner, followed by ex-Sen. John Edwards. Al Gore's support edged up slightly, despite protests he's not running.

Instapundit/Prof. Glenn Reynolds sends us along his revealing, candid interview (conducted with Helen Reynolds) of RNC chairman Ken Mehlman.

Writes Reynolds: "[We talk .... about polls, anger in the base, and issues like immigration, spending, taxes, and judges. We pressed Mehlman pretty hard, and I think it's fair to say that he realizes that action is more important than rhetoric if the GOP is to win back the base before November. Whether he and the White House can deliver on that, especially in the face of the Senate Republicans' foot-dragging, is another question."

In response to these headlines:

Dean and Party Leaders in a Money Dispute
Democrats Are Fractured Over Strategy, Funds

A Democratic state party chair, who asked to remain anonymous, provided us with these thoughts:

With an election just months away, why are Mom and Dad fighting like this? By the way, Dad is complaining that Mom is spending the mortgage money on the kids, but when I look at the numbers, I think Mom is really spending way too much money on all the internet and telemarketing consultants costs - that extra $15,000,000 dwarfs the extra $4.5 million on salaries (which must be the staff in the states). I think Dad should stop yelling at Mom about the kids and start looking at the other bills! As one of the kids, I am tired of getting blamed for Mom and Dad fighting.

First, there was this.
Then this.
And this.
Then came This, for CBN News.
Which led to this.
And This.
And This.

And now:

"I misstated the Democratic Party's platform, which does not say that marriage should be limited to a man and a woman, but says the Party is committed to full inclusion of gay and lesbian families in the life of our nation and leaves the issue to the states to decide. The Democratic Party remains committed to equal protection under the law for all Americans. How we achieve that goal continues to be the subject of a contentious debate, but our Party continues to oppose constitutional amendments that seek to short circuit the debate on how to achieve equality for all Americans."

The National Security Agency has asked some of the nation's biggest telecommunications companies, including giants such as AT&T and Verizon, to give the agency records of all the calls made on their networks.

National Journal 's Shane Harris reported in March that the agency mines this data for specific patterns that might indicate communication among terrorists. Using that information, the agency decides which calls to intercept and listen to. Because of the massive data mining done up front, the NSA program goes far beyond the narrow, targeted interception of suspected terrorists' phone calls, as the administration has insisted.

Wrote Harris: "analyzing transactional data is one of the first and most important steps the agency takes in deciding which phone calls to listen to and which electronic messages to read."

"Far from the limited or targeted surveillance that Gonzales, President Bush, and intelligence officials have described, this traffic analysis examines thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of individuals, because nearly every phone number and nearly every e-mail address is connected to a person."

The full article, courtesy of NJ and GovExec.com.

SEIU prez Andy Stern gets the 60 Minutes treatment this Sunday.

We hear he'll be the subject of a 13-minute Lesley Stahl segment on the newsmagazine's broadcast. SEIU officials say they gave the show "access to member events and campaigns that they were interested in filming, as well as our complete video archive of members in action."

This being Stern and this being 60 Minutes, surely something provocative will come out of the piece.

BTW: The Atlantic's Joshua Green recently profiled Stern and his Really Big Idea.

Pres. Bush, non-confirming-or-denying the USA Today article, told reporters this morning that its intelligence collection efforts are legal and don't violate civil liberties.

"After September the 11th, I vowed to the Americna people that our govenrment would do everything wtihin the law to protect them against another terroist attack."

"There are new claims. I want to make some important points about what the government is doing and what the govenrment is now doing. Our intelligence activities stricly target Al Qaeda and its known affiliates.:

"Al Qaeda is our enemey and we want to know what our enemy is doing."

"The government does not listen to domestic phone calls without court aproval. The intelligence activities I authorized are lawful and have been briefed to appropriate members of congress, both Republicans and Democrats. The privacy of ordinary Americans is fiercely protected."

"We're not mining or trolling through the personal lives of innocent Americans."

First -- that the NSA opens its giant ear to the telephone conversations of Americans is almost American cultural lore -- whether it's accurate or not. (See: Mercury Rising and Enemy of the State and Sneakers and read James Bamford and Google "Echelon."

So collecting and analyzing everyone's telephone records is a step down from that level of assumed privacy invasion.

Politically, Republicans, even in spoling for a political fight over NSA wiretapes, have steeled themselves for revelations that the President's "terrorist surveillance" program accidentally intercepted domestic calls. Such a tangible violation of civil liberties could compromise their perceived political advatange and tip toward civil libertarians the benefit of Americans' doubts.

This ain't that. But it's already flipped at least one Hayden-leaning Dem on the intel committee. Dianne Feinstien of CA has serious reservations. Judiciary chair Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) wants telephone company execs to explain themselves.

State Sen. Adrian Smith's (R) primary victory in NE 03 Tuesday night was a big win for the Club for Growth.

They raised $300K for him, and their IE pumped in $70K worth of TV ads in the campaign's final days. But his success was hardly a foregone conclusion. The moderate Main Street GOP Partnership launched a radio attack ad against Smith and the Club, accusing them of calling farmers "welfare recipients."

That's a toxic charge in NE 03, one of the country's most ag-dependent CDs. Still, Smith prevailed by a healthy 10-point margin over Rep. Osborne's ex-district director, John Hanson.

The primary also caps off a week of poor performances from Hill staffers. Hanson, despite his Osborne connections, didn't live up to expectations. And Rep. Sabo's CoS Mike Erlandson (D) failed to make it through the first round of balloting in the MN 05 caucuses -- even with the congressman's endorsement. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

If 2006 turns out to be a strong "change" election (and it's sure looking that way), many members of Congress will see their careers come to an end, writes the Hotline's Chuck Todd.

But a few may actually survive in this environment if they are able to run on "change" platforms that voters can actually believe.

Check out our latest
Governor's Race Rankings

We have to give it up to the man who looks great in Earth Tones. The preview for Al Gore's documentary film on global warming, "An Inconvenient Truth" is out on YouTube, and it's billed as "the most terrifying movie of the summer."

Since '00, Gore has made educating the public on global warming his personal mission, which eventually led to the production of the film with Director Davis Guggenheim and producer Laurie David. Gore has been showing the film across the country to small groups, including premiering it at the Sundance Film Festival, before signing with Paramount to take it nationwide later this month.

The movie will open in NY and LA May 24, followed by a limited release to major cities (including Washington, D.C.) June 2 and opening nationwide June 16. [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

"American Idol" shocked viewers when Chris Daughtry was cut. And Trent Lott had some shocking words on "Hardball."

Lott was his usual outspoken self. Asked about Pres. Bush's comment about brother Jeb Bush's '08 potential, Lott: "Well, certainly you would say that about your own brother. Otherwise your mother might discipline you. Look, I don't think it's going to happen in 2008. Frankly, I don't think it's a good idea. I would not be supportive of Jeb Bush running for president. But I certainly understand why the president would say that about his own brother."

Asked if J. Bush could beat Hillary Clinton, Lott: "I don't think so, no." More: "I think the Republican nominee will eventually be able to win, will be able to beat Hillary Clinton or any Democrat."

MSNBC's Matthews: "Whoa, you're just revising and extending here, senator. You just said that Jeb would lose to Hillary."

Lott: "I don't think he'd be the best candidate for the nomination. You know, I've said that about [him] and I'm not backing off of that."

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) was also on: "Isn't there somebody else in the Republican party that can run other than a member of the Bush family?"

And Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN) was on to talk about his SEN bid (MSNBC, 5/10).

HARRIS STILL HANGING IN THERE

Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL) discussed her SEN bid on "Hannity & Colmes." Asked why Gov. Bush said she couldn't win, Harris: "I don't know. I just respectfully disagree."

She was also questioned about Mitchell Wade and his contributions. FNC's Colmes: "Did Mitchell offer to hold a fundraiser for you? And did you ask for $10 million that would have gone to benefit his company?"

Harris: "I asked for an appropriation for an authorized naval program in Sarasota, Florida, which would bring a lot of new jobs. So, clearly -- and, in the future, I had hoped that he would host one for me." More: "There was no quid pro quo, ever" (FNC, 5/10).

HERE'S THE SITUATION

House Maj. Whip Roy Blunt talked '06 on the "Situation Room": "I think realistically there may be as many as three dozen [seats] in play, about a dozen of theirs, probably two dozen of ours. And I just don't think they're that good, either in the candidates they have recruited or what they stand for" (CNN, 5/10).

PET PROJECTS

And Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist was on "O'Reilly Factor" to talk about child protection legislation, one of O'Reilly's favorite issues (FNC, 5/10). [EMILY GOODIN]

From the Journal Star.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee doesn't endorse in primaries, and you won't ever hear Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) say bad things about Harris Miller (D).

But --

The endorsement of James Webb (D) today by Sens. Harry Reid and Dick Durbin seems to be tacit recognition that nat'l Dems want Webb as their nominee.

National Dems want Miller out of the race, and soon.

Worth noting, however, is that while Webb accrues support from DC and nat'l Dems, Miller, a longtime Dem activist, is racking up endorsements from VA state legislators. Miller has the support of 17 Delegates and state Senators, including many from the ranks of the Black Caucus and Northern VA delegation, while Webb has just one legislative endorsement.

Will this be a primary driven by nat'l dynamics and pragmatism or local issues and personal loyalty?

Webb release after the jump.

To constituents who've e-mailed their concerns about an NBC News report on his use of corporate airplanes, Sen. George Allen (R-VA) says not to worry: the jets increase his efficiency at helping them.

"I appreciate your contacting me about the news story on NBC Nightly News regarding private plane travel by Members of Congress and I value the chance to respond," Allen writes in the letter, which will be sent to Virginians who've inquired.

Allen "can understand" why "many people would question why representatives would need to use planes to attend meetings and events."

"To be candid," he writes, "there are just so many meetings and obligations across Virginia and in other States where I need to be personally present that driving is occasionally not an option anymore. In order to keep to the Senate's tight and often rapidly changing schedule I also have found that, contrary to the news report, I often cannot book commercial flights and get to many disparate locations on time in a day."

A footnote: the NBC News report featured footage of Allen boarding a corporate jet in Memphis, TN on 3/11. NBC did not report Allen's reason for having to zip out of Memphis -- he was attending the Southern Republican Leadership Conference -- so quickly: he was an invited guest of NBC News and Tim Russert at the Gridiron dinner. [MARC AMBINDER]

The full letter is after the jump.

State Rep. Keith Ellison won the MN 05 Dem caucus last weekend, setting up a potentially historic victory this fall.

If elected, he would be the first Muslim in Congress. He also would be MN's first African-American representative and the fifth in the House to represent a majority-white district.

His victory isn't a foregone conclusion. In MN, caucus endorsements usually determine the nomination, but at least two candidates declared they'll challenge him for the 9/12 primary.

His win also challenged assumptions among DC insiders. Sabo's CoS, Mike Erlandson, was initially considered the favorite. But caucus politics in MN are dominated by the activists, some of whom Erlandson alienated during his tenure as state party chair.

And at the caucus, he was jeered during his speech after refusing to say whether he'd abide by the party endorsement. Erlandson still may run in the primary, one with major implications. Will race and religion play a role in the 71% white CD? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The White House press operation sent out two "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT" e-mails this afternoon.

One takes CBS News to task for a report on Medicare Part D the WH labels as "misleading."

The other says the New York Times editorial board "continues to Ignore America's Economic Progress."

A statement from FL House Speaker Allan Bense:

"I have been extremely honored and humbled by the strong support and encouragement I have received from my family, my friends and from people across Florida who I admire greatly. However, I have decided not to run for the United States Senate."

"While the challenge of running a successful campaign over the next several months was exciting, and while I am confident we would have been successful, ultimately my decision came down to the fundamental question of whether I was willing to spend the next six, 12 or possibly 18 years of my life away from my family and my home serving Florida in the U.S. Senate. After much thought and prayer, I realized the answer to that question is 'no.'"

"The last eight years has been an incredibly rewarding experience, and I am proud of the successes I have enjoyed as a state representative and finally as Speaker of the Florida House. I hope I will be remembered as a Speaker who set aside any partisan or personal agenda and worked hard to make decisions based upon what was in the best interest of the people of Florida."

"Now, I look forward to spending time with my wife, Tonie, seeing our daughter, Courtney, get married this summer, helping our son, Jason, begin his career and sending our youngest son, Taylor, off to college. I am also eager to get back to the business interests I have neglected while serving the public and to pursuing whatever new opportunities may arise."