A Hotline Tradition: The Crown Juleps
ShareOne of the best Hotline traditions continues. For over a decade, The Hotline has been the exclusive home for legendary political journalist/horse handicapper Jack Germond's Triple Crown picks.
As with all good handicappers, he and us, only remember the years he was right. In addition, we have two of our old standbys offering their picks as well: Edelman's Craig Brownstein and GOP strategist/sometime horse race owner Jim Dornan.
From Jack Germond: "I'm going with Barbaro, who has shown he can win on any surface and has attracted Edgar Prado, who had a choice of several mounts. I am passing Brother Derek. California horses are like political celebrities who seem to expect special handling -- those five-horse fields, for example -- for no apparent reason. My longshot is Bluegrass Cat, who has shown little but has good breeding that is more important at the track than in the Senate. Put him in an exacta box with Barbaro. You could win an all-expense paid trip to Crawford, Texas."
From Craig Brownstein, host of DC's best Derby Day party: "The hardest race of the year to handicap gets harder every year. This one is a crap shoot if you throw out those certain to be over bet (Barbaro, Lawyer Ron, Brother Derek, etc.). I'm going with #11 Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1) to win. His pedigree says distance and he should be able to handle Saturday's expected off track. His Illinois Derby performance makes him look like he could win handily even with Chris Hamby in the irons. In the second spot I'm going with one of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's three runners - #5 Point Determined (12-1). His sire (Point Given) was 2001's Preakness/Belmont winner and Horse of the Year so he's extremely well bred. He seems to get better with every race and there's nothing more dangerous than a 3yo on the improve. Rounding out the trifecta, I'm going long - #2 Steppenwolfer (30-1). This colt should be closing like a freight train at the top of the stretch as the front runners being to fade."
From Jim Dornan: "I believe this is the most wide open Derby in years. The weak favorite at 3-1 is testament to that. With a ton of speed in the race, I'm going to go with two stalkers and two closers in a four horse exacta. I like A.P Warrior (15-1), Barbaro (4-1), Point Determined (12-1) or Bob and John (12-1) to finish 1-2. BONUS PICK: Bet against the "filly" in Florida. There will be a late entrant who is a closer and who will pass that one-time favorite in the stretch and then go on to win the entire race."
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