Coming Tuesday Night: Live Election Coverage
Join Hotline writers and editors, along with Alamanc and National Journal's congressional sage Richard Cohen and the Almanac's Peter Bell, for real-time primary coverage and analysis.
We'll learn lots about the '06 mindset after OH's 5/2 primary. What's the real story on Dem intensity? Watch turnout, and compare. The GOP should have higher numbers since all big statewides are on their side. But what if they don't?
-- In GOV, a new Mason-Dixon poll suggests it's Blackwell vs. Strickland this fall, with Strickland in front (Blackwell's big problems: Sky-high negs).
-- Then again, with a Dem poll showing Pres. Bush below 30% in OH, does anything else matter? Everything could be viewed through the prism of anti-Bush sentiment (or even anti-Taft).
-- OH 02: Frosh Schmidt isn't a Dem target, but she's vulnerable tomorrow.
-- OH 06: Dems need write-in candidate Wilson to win if they have any hopes of holding this seat. A loss would (essentially) give the GOP a one-seat pickup already. OH 13 could provide similar problems if wrong Dem wins.
-- OH 18: Rep. Ney (R) gets his first big test since the Abramoff scandal. His GOP margin will tell us how vulnerable he'll be.
Plus: Dems get their candidate in IN 08 and IN 09 and ex-QB Heath Shuler (D) is favored for the Dem nomination in NC 11.