Consultants' Corner

A Small Idea Launches

A Large-Scale Trend

Was the fuss over micro-targeting in '04 really legit? Can it decide an election before the votes are already in? These questions and more led to an investigative foray into the expensive and complex world of targeting voters. The findings were so large that publishing them in one story would not do the concept justice. The Hotline's Aoife McCarthy and Katherine Lehr present a three-part series focusing on how micro-targeting has influenced and continues to influence media ad buys, direct mail initiatives and online advertising. Today: part one.

With win/loss margins becoming smaller by the election, political strategists from both sides of the aisle are agreeing the ability to micro-target may be the key to victory. Analyzing demographic and consumer information is helping campaigns create a message that resonates with its intended audience. As illustrated in the run for the WH in '04, the emphasis on micro-targeting drastically changed the landscape of political communication. The Bush/Cheney victory, consequently, helped crown the GOP as micro-targeting masters.

Although micro-targeting has advanced in recent years with the increasingly sophisticated data, that can be adaptable to an abundance of variables through targeting software, '04 is not the first time the technique surfaced.

The strategic team at GMMB, which managed the Clinton/Gore media buys in '92, acknowledged that they were the media mavericks for their micro-targeting efforts in the ticket's political upset. Although parties analyze the information in a different manner, they are receiving it from similar sources, such as Scarborough and Nielsen.

With Dem and GOP campaigns both research-driven, is it possible the only way consultants receive credit for a clever media plan is if, and only if, their candidate wins?

For instance, both parties concur that Dems consistently watch more TV than GOPers. National Media Research, Planning and Placement, LLC, the consulting firm responsible for Pres. Bush’s media buys in ’04, estimates Dems receive 14 percent more ad impressions than GOPers because of this factor. Conversely, GOPers use the radio more frequently, with news talk remaining a staple medium for male GOPers. Making media buys based on this research was evident in '04 with John Kerry purchasing significantly more TV advertising than Bush. Continuing on this trend, Bush bought more radio advertising than Kerry.

National Media conducted a test run with its targeting analysis in ’02 and fully implemented the findings in its media plans for ’04. Since then, National Media contends it has not run a race without it. Using 36 variables, National Media sorted out media users individually into categories including elites and influencers. These two groups tend to use the same types of media, but elites (fairly balanced between GOPers and Dems) are heavier users of media. Having this information enables media buyers, such as National Media, to know not only what viewers are watching, but when. This also applies to consuming habits, down to what kind of car Dems or GOPers are more likely to buy. GMMB, which has also used its targeting analysis in every race, notes that the micro-targeting techniques used by both parties are similar.

Despite the emerging concept of using the Internet as a political advertising tool, parties are still hesitant to utilize the medium in terms of message delivery. GMMB cites that although it is useful for early-on fundraising, branding and communications with a candidate’s base, the real crunch for voters comes within the final weeks of a campaign. More intrusive media, such as TV, Cable and Radio, have proven to be more effective. Thus, campaigns are less likely to take away dollars from traditional forms of targeting. Stay tuned for a more in-depth look at the world of online political advertising. The trend may be slowly growing, but the foundations of some companies are built on the belief the medium will play a crucial role in elections to come.

Stay tuned tomorrow for a sneak peak at how micro-targeting is changing the face of direct mail. But, what? Direct mail is already so targeted, you ask. Oh, the fun is just beginning. Let us know what you think of this series or anything else you have seen, or would like to see, in Consultants' Corner.