Dowd to RNC Members: Simmer Down Now
RNC senior adviser/BC04 senior strategist/Ron Fournier co-author Matthew Dowd urges Republican Nat'l Committee members to favor a "comprehensive" solution to immigration, which the public believes is is "unifying -- not polarizing."
Dowd: "Furthermore, majorities of Hispanics back it. Therefore, it is imperative for the Republican Party to talk about immigration effectively and comprehensively and demonstrate leadership on this vital issue as we move toward the mid-term elections."
Dowd's memo says that an internal RNC poll conducted by Jan Van Louhuzen finds that "pverwhelming support exists for a temporary worker program. 80% of all voters, 83% of Republicans, and 79% of self-identified conservatives support a temporary worker program as long as immigrants pay taxes and obey the law."
More, from the RNC internal poll: "When voters are given the choice of other immigration proposals, strengthening enforcement with a tamper-proof identity card (89% among all voters, 93% among GOP), various wordings of a temporary worker program (the highest at 85% among all voters, 86% among GOP), and sending National Guard troops to the border (63% among all voters, 84% among GOP) score the highest among both all voters and Republican voters."
Also: "Voters don't consider granting legal status to those already here amnesty."
Dowd concludes: "Finally, when discussing immigration reform, tone and language are extremely important. To continue to grow the party, we must conduct this debate with civility and respect for our nation's heritage -- as the President has said, we are both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants. That is why the American people favor a balanced plan that secures the border, improves enforcement, enhances immigration avenues AND deals compassionately and equitably with those who are already here."
MEMORANDUM
TO: Republican National Committee Members
FROM: Matthew Dowd, RNC Senior Advisor
RE: Public Opinion On Immigration Reform
DATE: May 26, 2006
Given the ongoing public and legislative debate on immigration reform, I wanted to provide you with an overview and analysis of public opinion research on this important issue. A review and evaluation of both public and private polls reveals the following:
Americans believe illegal immigration is a serious problem that the government has failed to address in the past. Doing nothing on this issue is not a solution, as Americans want it fixed today.
The public wants a comprehensive solution that includes reform on three fronts: (i) strengthening border security/law enforcement to stem the flow of illegal immigration, (ii) enhancing the avenues through which immigrants can lawfully and safely enter the U.S. for work and (iii) creating a compassionate, practical and equitable way for those illegal immigrants already in the U.S. to legally enter the system.
On the other hand, proposals such as criminalizing illegal immigrants, have significantly less support among the American people.
The comprehensive approach that emphasizes both security and compassion is unifying, not polarizing – it is supported by Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. Furthermore, majorities of Hispanics back it. Therefore, it is imperative for the Republican Party to talk about immigration effectively and comprehensively and demonstrate leadership on this vital issue as we move toward the mid-term elections.
I. Public Polling Summary
Public polls show that Americans want the government to solve the immigration problem. The public strongly supports a comprehensive approach. For instance:
Expanding the Border Patrol. Eighty percent (80%) in the FOX News poll (4/4-4/5) support increasing the number of officers policing the border, and Gallup (4/6-4/7) shows 81% believe increasing the number of Border Patrol agents will be an effective way to reduce illegal immigration.
Creating a temporary worker program. More than two-thirds of voters – and equally large numbers of Republicans – support creating a temporary worker program. FOX News (5/16-5/18) found 63% of all voters support a temporary worker program and 63% of Republicans supporting it too. Similarly, CBS (5/16-5/17) found 61% of Americans and 62% of Republicans support a temporary worker program.
Strong Support For Temporary Worker Program From GOP Voters
Providing a way for illegal immigrants already here to obtain legal status. Proposals to allow illegal immigrants who have been in the country for at least five years and meet other requirements (pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English, and go to the back of the line) to apply for legal status garner wide support. Close to 80% support such a proposal in the CNN poll (5/16-5/17) and 77% in the CBS News poll (5/16-5/17), including 76% of Republicans. And according to the NBC News/WSJ poll (4/21-4/24), more than two-thirds (68%) support the Hagel-Martinez approach that passed the Senate.
Sending the National Guard to help Border Patrol agents secure the border. Voters strongly support the President’s plan to deploy National Guard troops to the Mexican border. 74% support the plan in the ABC News/Washington Post poll (5/12-5/14), 64% support it in the CNN poll (5/16-5/17), and 62% support it in the CBS News poll. Moreover, the CBS poll shows 68% believe National Guard troops will be effective in reducing illegal immigration.
II. RNC Polling Summary
Examining RNC internal polling sheds even more light on the immigration debate. Our most recent poll (5/21-5/23) by Voter/Consumer Research finds:
Overwhelming support exists for a temporary worker program. 80% of all voters, 83% of Republicans, and 79% of self-identified conservatives support a temporary worker program as long as immigrants pay taxes and obey the law.
When voters are given the choice of other immigration proposals, strengthening enforcement with a tamper-proof identity card (89% among all voters, 93% among GOP), various wordings of a temporary worker program (the highest at 85% among all voters, 86% among GOP), and sending National Guard troops to the border (63% among all voters, 84% among GOP) score the highest among both all voters and Republican voters.
Immigration Proposals, Ranked By Overall Support
Voters don’t consider granting legal status to those already here amnesty. Seventy percent (70%) of voters say illegal immigrants who have put down roots in the U.S. should be granted legal status after they go to the back of the line, pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English, and have a clean criminal record; just 25% say that would be amnesty and we should instead impose criminal penalties on illegal immigrants in the U.S. Republican and conservative opinion is only slightly lower—68% of conservatives and 64% of Republicans support granting legal status over criminal penalties.
Voters want comprehensive reform, including a temporary worker program and legal status, not inaction. When voters are given the choice between a comprehensive reform plan of getting tough on border security and a temporary worker program or no reform at all (below), 71% choose comprehensive reform and 19% choose no reform. Support for comprehensive reform is even higher among GOP base voters—80% of conservatives and 72% of church-going Protestants want comprehensive reform over no reform.
· “Getting tough on the border by building more fences, motion sensors, and cameras, and creating a temporary worker program where people can apply to work in this country for a limited period if they pay taxes and obey the law.”
/OR/
· “Not reforming our immigration system or strengthening border security if it means letting more immigrants into the U.S. through a temporary worker program and failing to punish immigrants here now who came into the country illegally.”
Conservative Subgroup Support For Temporary Worker Over Inaction
Republican candidates succeed when they support taking action on immigration. Our poll tested a number of messages, and found candidates who talk about comprehensive reform are more successful than those who focus only on border security. For example, a candidate using comprehensive reform language wins 71%—including 52% of Republicans—when matched against a seal-the-border candidate.
Candidate A “who only supports sealing off the border, stopping illegal immigrants from entering the country, and imposing criminal penalties on immigrants already here”
25% are more likely to support Candidate A
/OR/
Candidate B “who supports comprehensive immigration reform that would beef up border security, enforce laws against companies that hire illegals and creates a temporary worker program that would allow immigrants to work here for a set period of time so long as they register, pay taxes, obey the law, and return home when their permit expires.”
71% are more likely to support Candidate B
Finally, when discussing immigration reform, tone and language are extremely important. To continue to grow the party, we must conduct this debate with civility and respect for our nation’s heritage – as the President has said, we are both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants. That is why the American people favor a balanced plan that secures the border, improves enforcement, enhances immigration avenues AND deals compassionately and equitably with those who are already here.
Mr Dowd,
If you don't want to lose seats in Congress you had better advise your members to stay the course with the House Bill. The Senate has sold out the people of the US. Be it further advised, If the Republican Senators do not go along with the House I will withdraw my membership to the Republican Party.
Matthew Dowd is living on another planet if he thinks the GOP rank and file are going to support amnesty and guest worker programs. If amnesty is approved, the GOP will feel our wrath.
The problem with your "Candidate B" that wants to enforce laws against companies that hire illegals, is that even now, these laws aren't being enforced. Sure, they started prosecuting one company a couple of weeks ago, just to show that they're serious, but come on. I've been a big fan of Pres. Bush since the beginning, but I can't take him seriously on the immigration issue.
So far, we've called up 5,000 National Guard members, and we're pulling them away from home for no reason whatsoever. It's not like they're going to seal up the border. Neither will a wall solve the problem. If President Bush had the gonads to actually enforce the law against companies that hire illegals with falsified Social Security numbers, then the problem would begin to take care of itself. Up until now, though, there has been absolutely no will on the administrations part to actually enforce the laws. They'd rather waste the time of our Border Patrol, National Guard, etc., since that doesn't cost them any campaign contributions.
The problem here is that most people don't know what the law curerently is, or don't understand what it means:
Consider this point:
"Proposals to allow illegal immigrants who have been in the country for at least five years and meet other requirements (pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English, and go to the back of the line) to apply for legal status garner wide support."
The problem is that that kind of a proposal is nonsense. It's nonsense because going to the back of the line effectively means NEVER coming.
If people endorse it, they may very well believe that it is not too difficult or not too long a wait for somebody who wants to immigate to the United States to come here (because if that is not so, the question is nonsense.) Some people may answer knowing coming here to impossible to do legally for many people but others probably will understand it to mean that there would only be a few years delay at most.
This not true.
Going to the back of the line (for admission) would mean not coming at all, unless they have special ties and even then they need amnesty for immigration crimes.
This poll cannot be used by either side because it doesn't tell you whether, if people understood what the practical effects were, they would favor deportation and permanent exclusion for illegal immigrants or if instead they would favor amnesty. Most likely they would favor increased legal immigration as part of any deal
Sophistries and lawyer's tricks are simply not going to work indefinitely.
It is clear, by the way, they are not interested in criminal penalties for illegal immigration, and probably still won't be after you throw in ideas like identity theft.
They are probably not in favor of stealing Social Security benefits. As Mccain said it's either return the money or put them into the system. Yet the anti-immigration lobby professes to be outraged at the very idea of counting benefits. That's clearly a vote loser in the long run.
The root causes of illegal immigration (and all problems in societies): immoral capitalists, greedy lobbists/lawyers, dishonest politicians, and lethargic heroes. SJF, c. 2006