House Race Hotline Update: Sherwood's Referendum

Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA 10) hasn't faced a major-party opponent since his '00 re-election.

But tomorrow, Sherwood -- amid scandal over an extramarital affair -- faces atty. Kathy Scott (R), who has spent virtually nothing for her primary bid. Still, he's taking her very seriously. He spent $206K in 4/06 alone, mostly on radio ads and direct mail portraying Scott as a Dem in disguise. And last week, Pres. Bush robo-called voters in the district, asking voters to support Sherwood.

In past primaries this year, challenged safe incumbents have won at least 70 percent of the vote; most with over 80 percent.

Sherwood received 54,115 votes in the '04 primary, running unopposed. If GOP turnout drops significantly or Scott receives more than 30 percent, Sherwood could be in trouble.

With a win, he'll be facing naval reserve officer Chris Carney (D) in the fall. Carney is a political newcomer but spoke authoritatively on policy issues in a HRH interview and came across better than more highly-touted Dem vet candidates.

But even a top-tier candidate would face steep obstacles in PA 10, which voted 60% for Bush in '04. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]