Interpreting Raese's Victory
The AP has called the WV GOP Senate primary for John Raese.
The Hotline's Quinn McCord offers this analysis.
Although Raese's apparent victory is not unexpected, his path wasn't as smooth as he (or the NRSC) would have liked. Hiram Lewis entered the race months earlier, hoping for some residual GOP goodwill based on his near-miss in the 2004 AG race plus his status as an Iraq War vet. Indeed, Lewis raised hundreds of thousands of dollars through direct mail, but burnt through it nearly as quickly as it was raised. Towards the end, his campaign appeared increasingly embittered that nat'l GOP leaders appeared to have anointed Raese and some harsh words were exchanged.
Until Raese announced his bid, this race was something of an embarrassment to the NRSC. One-by-one, several high-profile GOPers flirted with the race, only to back out, including Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, ex-WVU coach Gale Catlett, and Sec/State Betty Ireland. Raese finally declared 1/25/06, 3 days before the filing deadline.
So does Raese have what it takes to defeat Sen. Robert Byrd? Those who argue Raese is a strong candidate point to his narrow '84 loss to Sen. John Rockefeller and, of course, his deep pockets. But Byrd's legendary status in WV virtually ensures the contest will be a referendum on the incumbent, even moreso than with most re-election matches. The CW is that Byrd's own mental and physical health are greater threats to his campaign than Raese is. Only time will tell.
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