Monday, May 21, 2012

The Futures Market: Vermont

May 16, 2006 | 10:36 AM

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

VT Gov. Jim Douglas' (R) admin seems to be full of potential stars, with several members of his cabinet being mentioned in the "not if, when" categoy. Dems have reason to crow as well, with a state party not only full of top-notch talent, but also talent that's politically savvy enough to wait their turn. Instead of a divisive primary, several future stars who wanted to make the leap now deferred to help State Sen. Pres. Peter Welch (D) hold on to the state's lone Congressional seat. The wrench in the Dems' cogs is the state's Progressive Party, and followers of this column will note that VT is the only state for which we've included a third party. That's one reason, say Dems, that VT's LG always seems to be a GOPer: Progressives always manage to siphon enough votes away from Dems to guarantee a GOP win. [REID WILSON]

  • Ex-State Sen. John Bloomer (R): The former Min Leader comes from a well-known political family. He has a base in the southern part of the state, and some think "he'd be a good candidate for the right office."
  • State Rep. Tom Depoy (R): A newer face, people "haven't seen any indications of upward mobility" yet.
  • VT Civil and Military Affairs Sec. Neale Lunderville (R): While he hasn't actively explored a bid, "you never know." He managed Gov. Jim Douglas' (R) race in '02.
  • State Sen. Mark Shepard (R): Running for VT AL, seen as an underdog in the race to VT Nat'l Guard Gen. Martha Rainville (R). "He probably has spoiled his reputation" by running this year.
  • Ex-VT GOP chair Skip Vallee (R): Appointed ambassador to Slovakia, so he'd have to aim pretty high to beat his current title. Many think he wouldn't be interested in a lesser position.
  • Burlington Mayor Peter Clavelle (D): After losing a Gov race in '04, Clavelle is retiring after 17 years in the Mayor's office. He's returning to the private sector.
  • Ex-State Sen. Peter Shumlin (D): He considered a bid for Rep. Bernie Sanders's (I) open seat, but decided against it.
  • House Speaker Gaye Symington (D): The only female Dem Speaker of the House in the country after helping her party re-take the House in '04, "she's thinking about" higher office. She's "ambitious, but not overly so."
  • Ex-State Rep. Steve Hingtgen (P): Ran for LG in '04 and may be back in the private sector for good.
  • '00/'02 LG nom Anthony Pollina (P): Has his own radio show now and is considering an LG bid in '06.
  • State Rep. David Zuckerman (P): Considered a bid for the House in '06, but pulled out of the race. Chair of House Ag Cmte. Is considering bids for higher office.
  • And the stars to watch in the future:

    • Ex-Speaker Walter Freed (R): A popular former State Rep., ex-state party chair and wealthy businessman. He's "very smart, very articulate." "Never count Walt out."
    • VT GOP Chair Jim Barnett: "The other party fears him." "He's got the muscle and he's got the smarts" to move into elected office.
    • Public Safety Commis. Kerry Sleeper (R): The former State Trooper has a great network of fellow troopers, and he's considered a statewide bid in the past. "Down the road [he] could definitely do something."
    • Transp. Sec. Dawn Terrill (R): In her late 30s, she's "very well-liked, very smart, very articulate," though no one knows if she's really interested, she "would make a dynamite candidate."
    • State Sen. Matt Dunne (D): Running for LG in '06 after considering a bid for Sanders' seat. He was first elected at just 22 and is "a real threat to run statewide" in future.
    • Burlington City Councillor Ian Carlton (D): The new chair of the VT Dems, "everybody kind of thinks at some point he'll run for something statewide." He's the "most raw-talented guy we have."
    • State Sen. Peter Welch (D): The Sen Pres Pro Tem is running for Sanders' seat and is considered the favorite in the race. He's well-respected and has shown ability to raise money.
    • Burlington Mayor-elect Bob Kiss (P): "He'll make a great" Gov. in the future.
    • State Rep. Sandy Haas (P): Progressives "would love to see her run for higher office" in the future.
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