Monday, May 21, 2012

The Hotline Futures Market: Virginia

May 26, 2006 | 10:08 AM

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

The 800-lb. gorilla in some GOP circles is Rep. Tom Davis (R), who is said to be considering a statewide bid. Other GOPers, particularly those with ties to Southern VA, think that's ridiculous, and point to one of our '03 stars, the chair of the Prince William Co. Board, and his poor performance in the '05 LG primary as proof that NoVA GOPers can't win a primary. NoVA's growing, all agree, but only for Dems. GOPers need to get their primary votes elsewhere. Dems, meanwhile, have exploited the nat'l trend this year and won several state legislative special elections in districts that were previously held by GOPers. They hope their early success, and their very good '05, translates into success down the road. {REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

  • Atty Steve Baril (R): After losing a bid for AG in '05, "some people will keep him on the list" for future races, but others say "his time has passed." A good fundraiser, but he couldn't get traction in NoVA or among moderates.
  • Del. Dick Black (R): Lost bid for re-election in '05, "a pretty bruising defeat."
  • LG Bill Bolling (R): A State Sen when we first met him, Bolling won the LG race in '05 and "has a very good shot at being the next" Gov.
  • Prince William Co. Board Chair Sean Connaughton: He lost a primary bid for LG in '05, but remains a likely candidate for one of top two offices. "He'd like to" make another bid, say some. Others disagree: "He had his one shot. He blew it."
  • State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R): Wife of Rep. Tom Davis (R), she's "always talked about as a potential candidate for LG." "Count her on the short list."
  • Del. Chris Jones (R): After voting for tax increases, he lost his appointment to the state health care commission in retaliation. "He's done."
  • AG Bob McDonnell (R): The former State Del. won his race in '05 by a hair. He's a likely Gov candidate in '09. "A good candidate."
  • Del. Chris Saxman (R): Still in the House. "One of the younger, more conservative members." "Others consider him an up-and-comer in the party."
  • Ex-NASCAR exec. Kevin Triplett (R): Lost to Boucher. "A great guy," but he "wouldn't a real player at the current time."
  • Del. Kenneth Alexander (D): Still in the House, a young guy
  • Secretary of Administration ex-Del. Viola Baskerville (D): Lost LG nom, appointed Sec Admin for Kaine
  • State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D): Lost AG. He's "one of the best fighters we got." "He'll be seen again in the future."
  • Del. Brian Moran (D): "Brian is awesome." He's the caucus leader. "He's definitely going to run statewide or for Congress."
  • Ex-Del. Chap Petersen (D): Lost LG. "We'll see him again in a statewide race," and has "a very, very bright future."

And the stars to watch in the future:

  • US Atty John Brownlee (R): The US Atty for the Western district comes from GOP voter-rich Roanoke. "He's going to be a little bit different" from other downballot candidates in '09. He'll have to introduce himself to GOP activists, though.
  • State Sen. Jay O'Brien (R): From the high-priority Fairfax Co.-based exurbs, he may run for LG or Rep. Davis' VA 11 seat. Considered one of the more conservative members of the Sen.
  • Ex-State Del. Paul Harris (R): The first black GOPer elected in VA in a long time, he went on to serve in Pres. Bush's DoJ and is now a lobbyist for Raytheon. He's "very well-known among party activists," continues to travel the rubber chicken circuit and is "someone who could run for either downticket spot next time around."
  • State Sen. Mark Obenshain (R): The brother of the current VA GOP chair, he's a possible AG candidate in '09. He's "very charismatic."
  • State Sen. Mark Herring (D): Just won special election in Loudon Co., a traditional GOP area. "He will move up somewhere."
  • Sec/Finance Jody Wagner (D): "A very sharp and hard-working person." Lost to then-Rep. Ed Schrock (R) in heavily GOP VA 02 by just 7500 votes.
  • Fairfax Co. Board Chair Gerry Connolly (D): "He's established" and could make a strong bid for Rep. Davis' VA 11 seat.
  • State Del. David Englin (D): Ran an insurgent race against a group of established Dems in Fairfax Co. and beat them all.
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