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The Hotline Futures Market: Tennessee

May 4, 2006 10:34 AM | |

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What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

Dems and GOPers each have their strong points in TN. GOPers seem strong in Chattanooga, where a few of our stars seem ready to take over for Rep. Zach Wamp (R) if he runs for Gov as expected in '10. Dems are happy about their prospects in Nashville, where a pair of brothers seem poised to make the leap to the next level. Each party brags about strong fundraisers and strong personalities, and despite the rightish tilt of the state, TN may be in for some titanic clashes in the future. [REID WILSON]

The stars we've been watching since '03:

  • State Rep./ex-TN GOP chair Beth Harwell (R): After making the rounds about a possible Sen or Gov race, she decided against bids. She could "potentially" make a bid in the future, and as her status as a Bush Pioneer demonstrates, she can raise the money.

  • Ex-US Atty Sandy Mattice (R): Appointed to a fed judgeship last year, he's leaving that position "feet first."

  • State Sen. Ron Ramsey (R): The Sen Maj Leader helped retake the chamber in '04, and because of state law, under which the Sen chooses the LG, he could be the next LG. He's "been thinking about some other things statewide" as well.

  • State Rep. Rob Briley (D): The Dem floor leader comes from a big political family and is "a real player in the statehouse." He's "extremely bright and capable." "I would not be surprised" if he ran for higher office.

  • Ex-TN Dem Chair Randy Button (D): He's back in the private sector running a successful business after his terms as chair. Lost a race for Congress in '94.

  • Commerce & Insurance Commis. Paula Flowers (D): Still where she is, she hasn't expressed much interest in a bid on her own. "The best public speaker we've got," she "has a political side as well as an administrative side."

  • State Sen. Rosalind Kurita (D): "She's taken a charge," but dropped out of her race against Rep. Harold Ford (D) for a U.S. Sen seat. "The future is very very bright for her," says one source, but maybe not this year.

And the stars to watch in the future:

  • State Sen. Jim Bryson (R): From a Nashville suburb, he recently announced his bid for Gov in '06. Before he announced, one source predicted: “If he doesn't run now, he definitely will in the future.”

  • State Sen. Mark Norris (R): A "well-regarded" atty, he lost a bid for Congress in '02 but raised a lot of money. He has great fundraising potential and "comes from a pretty good district if he wanted to do something else."

  • TN GOP Vice Chair Robin Smith (R): A long-time grassroots activist and successful business person, she could make a bid for Rep. Zach Wamp's TN 03 seat. Wamp was Hamilton Co GOP chair before running for Congress, and so was Smith.

  • State Rep. Kim McMillan (D): The House Maj Leader is "a real star" and "a real workhorse," one source predicts "she'll be the first female" Gov of TN and that she'll land "whatever she decides to run for."

  • State Rep. John Litz (D): The two-term Rep. serves an overwhelmingly GOP district. Running for his 3rd term, he's in his mid-30s and consistently wins in a very GOP district. "He's already a star" and a Rep "all of us can be proud of." However, his CD, TN 01, has never elected a Dem.

  • Nashville Councilmember David Briley (D): Running for Davidson Co. Vice Mayor, he's the brother of State Sen. Rob Briley, and both are said to be headed up the ladder.

  • Atty. Gray Sasser (D): The son of ex-Sen. Jim Sasser (D), he "clearly has ambitions." A partner at a big Nashville firm, he's "somebody you need to be looking out for in" '06 and '08. "He's got the bloodline" to make a bid.