The Hotline Futures Market: Texas
What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.
In '10, TX is going to be a mess. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) wants to be Gov. So does LG David Dewhurst (R). Or does Dewhurst fancy Hutchison's Sen seat? We hear both. And don't count out AG Greg Abbott (R) or the wealthy and well-connected Sec/State Roger Williams (R). The ups and downs of each statewide elected official will drastically alter our '06 list, as GOPers look to a number of minorities to fill statewide spots. Dems, who are currently without a single statewide seat, would be lucky to pick one up, but the GOP shuffle may allow a better-funded candidate to sneak in and do just that. [REID WILSON]
The stars we've been watching since '03:
- AG Greg Abbott (R): He's "loved by the conservative grassroots" and is considered a possible Gov candidate in '10.
- State Rep. Dan Branch (R): People see him as a solid GOP vote but someone who hasn't stepped into the lime-light yet.
- State Sen. Robert Deuell (R): He's occasionally mentioned as a possible candidate, and Rep. Ralph Hall (R) is getting old. He'd be a good candidate in TX 04, but he's probably not statewide material, according to some we talk to.
- State Rep. Dan Gattis (R): "He's got some potential ahead of him" and a "good head on his shoulders." When the shuffle happens in '10, he could slide into a downballot statewide slot.
- State Rep. Phil King (R): Seen as a front-runner for the Speaker's chair should the incumbent move on, and he's "smart" and "seems to have friends on both sides of the aisle." A policy wonk, "he's got a lot of energy" and could run statewide down the road.
- TX Sup Ct Chief Justice Wallace Jefferson (R): An African-American, he's "very well respected for his temperment and the way he runs the court." He could "absolutely" run for statewide office, but TX SC Justices don't generally do that. "Very dynamic."
- State Sen. Todd Staples (R): Running for Ag Commis. in '06, he's "got a lot of potential," and could be an LG candidate because he knows how the Sen works.
- Railroad Commis. Michael Williams (R): "Talked about" for everything from Sen to AG. "One of the best speakers" in the TX GOP with close ties to Bush and love from the base. He can "pretty much choose where he wants to go."
- State Rep. Jim Dunnam (D): A "great guy" and chair of Dem caucus, he led Dems to OK during the redistricting fight. He's said not to be interested in moving up.
- Ex-TX Dem chair Molly Beth Malcolm: "She's gone, and that's a good thing."
- Dallas Mayor Laura Miller (D): "Has a future as a statewide candidate because of her Dallas base."
- Ex-state Rep. Paul Sadler (D): "Really, really bright guy," but after losing a State Sen special, he could be in the private sector for good.
- State Rep. Sylvester Turner (D): "Very loyal to the" GOP "speaker," and that means his career may be "shortened." However, he would have potential in a Houston Congressional seat.
- State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte (D): "A real mover" and "really gutsy," she whipped the Dems to try and prevent redistricting.
And the stars to watch in the future:
- Sup Ct Justice Dale Wainwright (R): Appointed by Perry, he won election on his own and is "somebody the grass-roots would love to see." He's "a great speaker."
- Railroad Commis. Victor Carrillo (R): Recently profiled in a TX magazine as a rising Hispanic star, he's "arguably the best person ever to sit" on the Railroad commis. Could be a future candidate for Gov and is currently taking a look at down-ballot seats.
- Harris Co. Tax Collector Paul Betancourt (R): A "house-hold name" who's "pretty popular," he comes from a major population base and has a reputation as someone who's on the side of the taxpayer.
- Businessman Amir Omar (R): Running against Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson in TX 30 and in his early 30s, he could be a future candidate in the Dallas area. A party favorite, "Has much more potential than a lot of the other folks out there."
- State Rep. David Swinford (R): Could be a future Ag Commis. He "has that potential" to run statewide and people are paying attention to him.
- State Rep. Mark Strama (D): The only Dem to win a seat in '04 from a GOPer. "He's definitely got the potential to run" for Congress and is a "rock star-type guy."
- State Rep. Rafael Anchia (D): A partner at Patton Boggs, he's "a great new-comer," "smart, articulate." "He has a future running statewide or as a Congressman."
- State Rep. Patrick Rose (D): Raised $1M for a State House race and is still in his late 20s. "He's really a potential shaker." "Fancies himself as President of the United States one day," though trial attys are not his biggest fans.
- State Rep. Veronica Gonzales (D): A freshman, she's "smart, young, has a good future." She's thought of as a potential Congressional candidate in the future.
- State Sen. Kirk Watson (D): The former Austin Mayor ran for AG in '02 and is "one of the brighter people in politics." "A star as mayor of Austin" and "an extraordinary individual."





Dan Branch may run for State Senate or Congress if Sessions ever retires. I think KBH thinks she will be on the short list for Veep in 2008.
Bob Deuell is the luckiest guy. He benefited from the redistricting board decision in 2002 to get rid of white Democrats. He has a safe seat, but will wait for Ralph Hall to retire so he can run in the 4th. He's always wanted to be a congressman.
I'd expect to see more from Rose, Strama, Anchia, Gonzales on the D side, and Staples, Abbot,and Branch on the R side for 2010 or 2014 state races. I think the Dems will be competitive in state races around 2012-2014.
Good analysis except for the mistakes. In 2004, Mark Strama was not the only Democrat to knock off a Republican state representative incumbent. The others were current State Representatives David Leibowitz and Hubert Vo.
you list should have mentioned Houston Mayor Bill White (and he probably should have been at the top).
Is Molly Beth Malcolm really gone, or has she been replace by clones?
My personal favorite for the next open senate seat in Texas is Rep. Jeb Hensarling. One of the best fiscal conservatives around.
Omar didn't win his primary. Good work.
I wouldn't say that state Rep Dan Gattis has "good head on his shoulders." He actually spoke at a county Young Republican meeting during the '04 campaign and told us that his favorite Presidential candidate was John Edwards. Considering that position and his support for a state income tax, his future might be limited to his current position.