There's No Place Like Your Home Congressional District

Previewing tomorrow's Nebraska primaries

Just when you thought Rep. Tom Osborne (R) couldn't lose anything -- neither a football game nor congressional race -- a happenstance incumbent governor could end his winning streak. One year ago, Gov. Dave Heineman (R) was a few months into his term and about 40 points behind Osborne. One year ago, conventional wisdom said Osborne was unstoppable with a 49 percent lead in his own district.

But polls from the past few weeks show Heinemen and Osborne almost dead even -- including in Osborne's 3rd district, the most rural and Republican of them all.

The 3rd district is the most inconvenient media market in the state. Thankfully, it is relatively inexpensive. The area is so rural (think 65 counties) that it's almost impossible to saturate with ads. Many homes use satellite dishes instead of network TV and the agricultural vote listens to radio while working in the fields. Winning here requires a top notch ground game, which is why both men have spent today and the weekend hitting the larger towns west of Omaha.

On a final note, one local Republican strategist said that 3rd district could experience a reverse-rain effect tomorrow. Unlike urban areas, in which rain suppresses turnout, impending thunderstorms might increase turnout in NE-03 because if farmers can't work out in the fields, they'll be in town voting and most likely giving Heineman a small bump. It might be a handful of Agriculture votes, but as the strategist says: "In a race this close, to what extent little things may make a big impact, who knows?"

Over the past decade, many self-funders have expended large sums of cash for the privilege of learning they're not cut out for politics. Others have discovered they actually have the personality and political acumen to make good candidates. When he first entered the race, most observers were unsure of which category Pete Ricketts would fall into. Given his service as AG and two previous SEN bids, Don Stenberg had a built-in advantage going into the primary, so the burden was on Ricketts to prove both his conservative credentials and his viability as his party's nominee. Based on recent polls, it appears Ricketts has done that, and he seems likely to win tomorrow. As for ex-NE GOP chair David Kramer, he's acquitted himself responsibly and respectably during the campaign, but his shot at establishing himself as the anti-Stenberg evaporated the moment Ricketts entered the race. [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ and QUINN MCCORD]