June 2006

Welcome to the Weekender. It's a new On Call experiment. Each Friday, we'll end the day with a longish post that probes an idea or a contested race or a political development that fascinates us. Last week, tackled the conventional wisdom that Sen. George Allen's 2008 hopes will be bruised by his competitive race and provide eight other reasons why Allen/Webb is this cycle's Daschle/Thune. This week, we're looking at two models for left-wing internet donations, and why you should watch out for their fundraising prowess and potential.

1. ActBlue.com. Without bells, whistles or massive e-mail campaigns, the site's decor well underestimates its influence. Since ActBlue's inception about two years ago, the site has raised more than $6 million dollars for Dem candidates. The Web site's interface is so simple and user friendly, major PACs and congressional campaigns (about 60 of them) are using it to process ALL of their donations. Users can create their own pages, from Netroots candidates (2,861 donors giving $221,851 to 12 hand-picked candidates) to Bloggers for Pete Ashdown (five donors giving $157).

From a campaign viewpoint, ActBlue essentially outsources much of the fundraising labor to a willing team. But the larger picture includes the blogosphere: So far, bloggers regularly link to site to put their money where there mouths -- er, keyboards -- are. The evidence is in total dollar amounts: ActBlue's biggest earners are Paul Hacket ($658K for combined Senate and House runs) and Ned Lamont ($233K so far this cycle). [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

If the NRCC has its way, child molester Matthew Long would be the Hoosier version of Willie Horton. He's now the poster boy in new TV ads against Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) in IN 08.

During Ellsworth's trip to DC earlier this month, Long was mistakenly released from prison and is still on the loose. The story's getting big play in the Evansville media market, and Rep. John Hostettler (R) said he'll bring up the issue on the trail.

Ellsworth aired a response ad criticizing Hostettler's voting record and touting his own credentials. But he hasn't commented directly on the Long case.

The controversy expedited the NRCC's funding of this race. Usually, the cmte doesn't make such decisions until after Labor Day. And Hostettler's refusal to fundraise always puts him at an early disadvantage. But Ellsworth gave them an opening to hit early and often.

Will elections be decided at the local or nat'l level? If nat'l issues dominate, Dems have a fighting chance with Ellsworth. But if this local issue draws traction, the sheriff may have an uphill battle. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

UPDATE: Long was re-arrested on Tuesday night, per this report from WFIE-TV.

It was the morning of.March 30, 1981; Rudy Giuliani met with President Reagan to discuss the young prosecutor''s upcoming Senate confirmation vote that would make him associate attorney general.

A few hours after this picture was taken, John Hinckley shot Reagan in the chest at the Washington Hilton.

Giuliani was tasked by the attorney general with safeguarding Hinckley in custody.

As Giuliani told Robert George,

"We had to get (Hinckley) arraigned within a reasonable period of time," Giuliani says. "Although this was a crime of worldwide significance, it still had to be treated like any other crime."

We bring you this very special Shot and Chaser, courtesy of reader John Schachter

SHOT...

"It was not always a given that the United States and America would have a close relationship." -- George W. Bush, 6/29 (Whitehouse.gov).

...CHASER

"Today, under George W. Bush, there are two Americas, not one.” John Edwards (12/29/03)

The Extended Play version, with a bit more analysis as to just why the first 6 of '06 have been so good to one '08er.

SPOTLIGHT

Benchmark Friday

It's the end of the 6th month of '06. A great time to create an artificial benchmark about WH '08! Think back to the start of '06 and ask yourself who has....

-- Bettered: McCain (weak frontrunner to a confident one); Huckabee (media's favorite IA dark horse); Kerry (messaging entire party on Iraq now); Edwards (has he snatched "outsider" tag from Warner? IA standing is big).

-- Stagnated: Giuliani (back on the scene, but yet to answer the "base" question); Bayh (fear the turtle); Warner (buzz candidate who became the cocktail party candidate); Frist (colleagues still skeptical, but mistakes are fewer); Feingold (alone as liberal FAV but is he only a 1-issue candidate?)

-- Stepped Back: Clinton (public war boos were bound to happen; when the Obama whispers stop, you'll know she's golden again). Gingrich (voluble but where's the belly fire and influence?); Allen (insiders now have doubts, he can't go to IA anymore, but if he beats Webb, he's right back in).

-- And who had the best six months? Mitt Romney, incredibly, now an "outsider" who has distanced himself from his MA pedigree.

To say that no other WH ‘08’er had a better 6 months than Romney would assume that there was another politician in America who saw his stock rise as much as the MA gov in the first half of ’06.

--A governor (outsider) in a GOP field dominated by Senators (insiders), Romney engineered a bipartisan healthcare solution that won front-page notice from the WSJ, WP and NYT – on the same day. The bill later drew favorable reviews from the likes of Yepsen, Brownstein and Alter – on the same day. Not even McCain got that sort of MSM love this year.

--A New Englander by way of Michigan, Romney came into Memphis for the SRLC and stole the headlines with an unexpected second-place finish in the straw poll, besting two Southerners and the primary’s putative front-runner

--A lame-duck RGA chair with a national fundraising base, Romney has spent more combined time in IA, NH, SC and MI than any other ‘08’er, planting staff, seeding candidates and earning chits along the way in all four early-nominating states.

To be sure, pitfalls await Romney on his Road to the WH (Mormonism, Yankeeism and Globe’ism, among them), but if his next 6 months are like the last, he goes into ’07 at or close to the top of the field.

What does the Iowa VAN list have that other lists don't? It's simple -- the VAN is the only place to buy the coveted list of '04 Iowa caucus attendees.

The $100K price tag for 19 months of access strikes some potential '08 Dem campaigns as a bit too expensive. So one possibility that's making the rounds: band together and try to negotiate a lower price for the VAN.

For Dems, the second-most valuable list might be in possession of the South Carolina Democratic Party. The SC Dems paid a DC-based data firm to enter in approximately 300K Dems from the '04 primary voter roles. You can't buy those IDs from the state elections commission.

In '03, the SC Dems charged $25 to $35K for the data; that represented about one fifth of the party's '03 fundraising.

The summer of '06 may known in the conservative blogosphere as the Great Sorting Out.

On Independence Day, Townhall.com relaunches.

One consultant working for them writes in an e-mail that the new Townhall will be "an entirely different type of site that gives bloggers a radio voice and is completely geared at turning listeners and Internet junkies into activists, much like a campaign. In fact, they are focusing a lot of activity at the elections and the presidential primaries. They even hired the Bush-Cheney ’04 Internet campaign director to create, launch and run the site."

As we first reported in, that man is Chuck DeFeo.

And Redstate is on the verge of a renaissance, too. Erick Woods-Erickson, a young Georgia lawyer, wrote friends this week that he'll be the new CEO of RedState, Inc., and the managing editor of the Redstate.com website.

Wrote Erickson "We've got a few months worth of revenue in the bank and I'm hoping that through a lot of hard work and effort we'll be able to grow the brand and make it an effective conservative weapon in the blogosphere for the 2006 elections and then 2008."

The major Dem blogosphere sites -- MyDD, Kos, Atrios -- managed to find particular, personality-anchored niches.
Townhall and Redstate are more communal, at least at the top.

Townhall is clearly the more corporate of the two and has a stable of well-known conservative personalities to attract eyeballs. But Redstate remains the site of choice (we think) for Congressional staffs.

If you like your internet politics red, it's an exciting time.

"Koizumi came in on a separate helicopter and pulled into place. The president began walking toward the chopper at 8:57, giving a hearty wave. FLOTUS stayed put. When Koizumi, in a styling bluish-grey suit and no tie came down the stairs, Bush greeted him with a handshake and a hand on the back. The two strode side by side, a Burning Love between them, across the tarmac (which was remarkable, given that just 60 years ago, their fathers had been at war, and now, through the power of freedom and democracy, their boys were going to pay tribute to a drug-addled sex addict who died on the toilet)." -- Joseph Curl

Sometimes we're not convinced of something until we see the fact smack us in the face via a poll. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll does that on the question of whether voters view '06 as a chance to "send a message."

-- 84% of regis. voters agreed (54% strongly) that they would use their vote for Congress, in part, to "[send] a message to the country's current leadership." The numbers were consistent across party lines. We also found that a plurality of voters said their candidate choice would be based on that person's nat'l positions.

-- So do voters' nationalized attitudes automatically help Dems? Not necessarily. While Dems continue to lead in the various ways we ask the generic ballot question, their lead has diminished. And the voters don't yet believe Dems can win. By a 43-40 margin, voters expect the GOP to hold control of Congress (that 43% includes 30% of Dems).

-- Still there's more good news for Dems in this poll than GOPers. 60% still see the country on the wrong track (though that's actually an improvement from 5/06); just 30% approve of Congress' job; and Dems answer more emphatically on their interest in the '06 elections as compared to GOPers.

The Supreme Court's redistricting decision won't likely affect the partisan makeup of the next Congress, but could cause heartburn for Reps. Henry Bonilla (R-TX 23) and Henry Cuellar (D-TX 28).

The ramifications largely depend on who is responsible for the new redistricting. If the GOP-state legislature is tasked with redrawing the lines, Bonilla and Cuellar should be in fine shape. But both incumbents are concerned that Cuellar's Dem, Latino base of Webb Co. could be shifted to Bonilla's CD.

Cuellar may have the most to lose. His seat would be jeopardized if he loses Webb. And if the courts declare another round of TX primaries, he could face a third challenge against ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, or the more highly-regarded state Rep. Richard Raymond.

Still, the picture is far from clear. And Cuellar isn't taking anything for granted, with six fundraisers scheduled within the next 4 months. But while the decision may have largely kept the map intact, it's created a whole new slew of questions for incumbents in southwest TX. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Our favorite Chicago station (WGN) showed our favorite Chicago movie ("Ferris Bueller's Day Off"). On cable, pundits tried to be as clever:

Most of the talk last night focused on the SCOTUS ruling regarding Guantanamo:

CNN's Henry: "A slap in the face for President Bush from a conservative-leaning Supreme Court" ("Situation Room," 6/29).

CNN's Greenfield: "The decision's real significance lies in how unusual it is. Throughout our history the court has rarely limited what a president tries to do in war time" ("Situation Room," 6/29).

FNC's Baier: "Senior administration officials emphasized all options are on the table" ("Special Report," 6/29).

WH comm. dir. Nicolle Wallace: "The president isn't dealing with prisoners the way he wants to. ... He's dealing with dangerous enemies in a way that will make sure that we, here in the United States of America, are safe and protected from them" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/29).

FNC's O'Reilly: "Today's ruling is a political one but not a disaster. If Mr. Bush wants military justice at Gitmo, the Republican controlled House and Senate would most likely OK it. All he has to do is ask" ("O'Reilly Factor," 6/29).

Washington Post's Milbank: "Congress is eager, if not to give him a blank check, they'll let him fill in the amount. But it's very clear that this Congress wants a little bit of face saving. What they were objecting to is not so much the program itself, but that they weren't being consulted on" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 6/29).

FNC's Kondracke: "They did not order the closing down of Guantanamo. They did not say that since the Geneva Convention applies to these people and somehow the Geneva Convention has been not followed that these guys are now free" ("Special Report," 6/29).

DRIVING HOME BACKWARDS

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) appeared on "O'Reilly Factor" last night. Here's how Bill O'Reilly started the interview:

O'Reilly: "All right, before we start the interview, I wish we could have done this in the campaign. You know, we kept waiting for you to come."

Kerry: "We should have done it. We should have."

O'Reilly: "You think so?"

Kerry: "I would love to have."

O'Reilly: "In hindsight, you should have."

Kerry: "No, I don't know why we didn't, but we should have."

And at the end of the pre-taped interview O'Reilly said: "I enjoyed the conversation. The senator is welcome here anytime. So now we're down to three: Jesse Jackson, Al Gore, Senator Hillary Clinton" (6/29). [EMILY GOODIN]

The next revolution might not be televised or computerized -- try mobilized. As of Thursday, there are two national political figures starting text messaging campaigns. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and John Edwards are the first to implement it in a U.S. political campaign, although the technology has been talked about for years among D.C. technology circles.

John Edwards' One America Committee launched his text message campaign Thursday. Users can sign up on the Web site and give their name, email and cell phone number to receive periodic updates, according to a rep from Edwards' internet team. Their cell phone will receive a text message from "John" within a minute. Those who sign up for the service can expect to get a note from Edwards while he's on the road or a message to call their respective members of Congress about an important piece of legislation.

Santorum debuted his SMS campaign at a Women For Rick breakfast last week hosted by Mary Matalin, who demonstrated the new technology for the open event. Internet director Mindy Finn said they chose the all-female crowd because women tend to be busier and use their cell phones in more creative ways. Santorum's camp asked for cell phone numbers at the door, and later sent guests a thank-you message for attending. Starting in July, the campaign plans to use more of the technology with issue-based messages, such as a text on Santorum's work on immigration. They also have plans to integrate SMS into their direct mail and perhaps television and radio ads. As Finn put it, the opportunities are "limitness." [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

Roll Call reports this afternoon that Rep. Bob Ney's (R-OH) top 3 aides -- CoS Will Heaton, comm dir Brian Walsh, and LD Chris Otillio -- "are leaving, or have already left." Also, Ney aide Matt Parker was subpoenaed.

Here's what Ney said in a statement: "As with every office on Capitol Hill, where staffers work very long hours, there is inevitably turnover. In fact, according to a recent study by the Congressional Management Foundation, the average tenure for staff is a little over three years. What is notable however, is that all three of the staff members who will soon be leaving my office all worked for me for much longer than the average tenure and in fact my chief of staff, Will Heaton, has been with me for roughly five years. I wish them well as they pursue their individual career paths. '

"That being, I am very proud to say that I have recently promoted another longtime staffer and Harrison County native to be my new Legislative Director in Washington and another longtime staffer to take-over media relations responsibilities. In addition, we also recently hired two new staff members to fully staff the legislative operations arm of my office. Again, this is exactly what every single office on Capitol Hill does and in fact, what many others often have to do with more regularity than myself."

"Therefore any suggestion or implication that the office of Ohio's 18th Congressional District is operating at anything less than full speed ahead is baseless and without merit."

House Min Leader Nancy Pelosi said at her weekly press conference today that congressional GOPers were leaving town for the recess with little but a laundry list of failures under their collective belts: failure to pass a budget, lobbying reform, immigration reform, an extension of the voting rights act, the 9/11 Commission's recomendations, identity protection for vets and an increase in the minimum wage. Quite a litany.

Not surprisingly, GOP leaders see things a bit differently. They say the first half of '06 has been chock-full of accomplishments.

And as a reminder, House Maj Leader John Boehner lays it all out in a "Promises Made, Promises Kept" memo that will be sent to members of the GOP conference later today.

Boehner breaks down what he views as their first-half achievements into four categories: the economy, nat'l security/border security, spending and everything else.

Full memo after the jump:

The Hotline has obtained a memo circulated by the Iowa Democratic Party to "interested parties" -- the chieftains of the various '08 Dem presidential campaigns.

Mike Milligan, the IA Dem's exec dir., writes that "The Iowa Democratic Party is offering a special discount on the Voter Activation Network (VAN) to all potential Presidential Campaigns. This plan will allow campaigns to invest in the 2006 Coordinated Campaign while gaining early access to the most sophisticated voter file in the country."

VAN is proprietary term for a computer system run by a company with the same name.

For simplicity's sake, the VAN a term of art for "the voter database," itself a fancy phrase meaning "the voter file." VAN manages the list; the Iowa Dems own it. Campaigns can access the data and add their own identifications and codes.

The RNC's voter files are centralized in a single-vendor system called Voter Vault. Traditionally, Dem state party voter files have been treated like family jewels; State Dem parties get to choose their own vendors and they fiercely guard this prerogative. The lack of interoperability contributed in part to the DNC's problems with its national file in '04.

Between now and July 15, campaigns or PACs who pledge to give $50K to the party in 2006 and another $50K in 2007 get approximately 19 uninterrupted months of database access.

After July 15, access for the rest of 2006 costs $75K. And the estimated cost for 2007 is $85K -- that's because the data will appended with voter IDs from the '06 election.

It's a steep price -- the database access cost $65K for access in '02 -- but here's how VAN claims to have helped Dems in the past:

"With the help of the VAN, Senator Harkin turned back a strong challenge from Rep. Greg Ganske and Gov. Vilsack became the first Democratic governor reelected in Iowa in over a century. The following year, success continued as Voter Activation Network tools helped fuel an unexpected Democratic victory in the Boise mayor's race, helped win six targeted mayor's races in Indiana, and helped shift control of the Indianapolis City Council to Democrats for the first time ever."

"[In] the crucible of the 2004 election, the VAN successfully hosted 22 statewide voter files to meet the needs of America Coming together and 11 statewide parties. As Election Day approached, nearly 15,000 users were feeding more than a million IDs a week into VAN systems using several thousand Palm Pilots, hundreds of bar code scanners, easy text upload procedures, and old-fashioned data entry. While the outcome of the Presidential election was obviously disappointing, Democrats using VAN tools made important strides in legislative races in states as diverse as Idaho, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, and Connecticut."

Then again, Bush won Iowa in '04... [MARC AMBINDER]

Ex-DOJ atty Marty Lederman believes he's discovered a gem (or a poison pill, depending on your point of view) in the Hamdan ruling:

".... the Court held that Common Article 3 of Geneva aplies as a matter of treaty obligation to the conflict against Al Qaeda. That is the HUGE part of today's ruling. The commissions are the least of it. This basically resolves the debate about interrogation techniques, because Common Article 3 provides that detained persons "shall in all circumstances be treated humanely," and that "[t]o this end," certain specified acts "are and shall remain prohibited at any time and in any place whatsoever"—including "cruel treatment and torture," and "outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment." This standard, not limited to the restrictions of the due process clause, is much more restrictive than even the McCain Amendment".

What say you, Harriet Miers, David Addington and Williams Haynes?

In the wake of SCOTUS's 6/28 decision on TX redistricting, the left was buzzing over opportunities to use Dem control over state legislatures to hobble GOP House delegations in key states (i.e. IL, NJ, and NM now, and possibly CA, PA, and CO after potential '06 wins).

Read the Hotline's
Blogometer

But even from their own ranks, lefties have questions about such efforts. Some wonder if constant re-districting is good for democracy, others look at the way Dems would have to draw lines to copy the GOP tactic (by shuffling base voters around) and wonders if Dem efforts to emulate the strategy would run afoul of the Voting Rights Act since the Dem base is often made up of minority voters.

Also, the Blogometer looks at progressive displeasure with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) over religion, SEN and HOUSE round ups, and finally a quick jab at campaign finance reform.

The Iraq war looked, at one point, like a winning issue for Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections.

Polling has shown the public deeply pessimistic about the war and these perceptions have helped drive President Bush's approval ratings down. But when Democratic members facing tough re-election challenges had the opportunity to set a timetable for troops to withdraw from Iraq, nearly all of them demurred.

Republicans kept their Conference in line, though most would have voted with the administration anyway. Yet the Democrats could not muster a unified opposition, and a sizable proportion of the Democratic defectors were those facing tough re-election bids. Take Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, a perennial target. He voted to authorize the Iraq war in 2002, but later was one of only 125 members to vote against appropriating $87 billion for the effort in 2004. Earlier this month, Boswell, a Vietnam War veteran, voted with the Republican majority for a GOP resolution calling for victory in the war on terrorism and reaffirming the U.S. commitment to prevailing in Iraq. He joined 41 other Democrats. In November, Boswell will face a well-funded, experienced GOP challenger in Iowa state Senate President Jeff Lamberti.

Incumbents facing competitive races stand out from the list of Democrats who voted for the resolution. Some of them are defense hawks, like Reps. Jim Marshall, D-Ga., and John Spratt, D-S.C. Others represent Republican-leaning districts, like Reps. Melissa Bean, D-Ill., and Charlie Melancon, D-La. Rep. John Barrow, D-Ga., voted for the resolution. Although his district voted 54-46 percent for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., for president in 2004, the new district Barrow is running in aft er redistricting would have only narrowly voted for Kerry, according to the Georgia Elections Division.[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

President Bush got a much-needed reminder Tuesday that some folks do still like him, writes John Mercruio. Some Republicans, at least.

Armed with a strong endorsement from Bush, Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, sailed to a surprisingly big primary win against John Jacob, a wealthy businessman who opposes the Bush-Cannon plan on illegal immigration. Jacob, who had previously blamed his campaign woes on the devil, said his defeat was Bush's fault; He said he couldn't overcome Bush's popularity. Those aren't words Bush hears too often these days. And in a district Bush carried 3-to-1 in 2004, Cannon's 14-point margin against a flawed candidate, while solid, is hardly reassuring. Indeed, Republicans this week are wrapping up their best month in months, enjoying good news on Iraq, ethics, immigration reform, the CIA leak investigation and, well, Iraq. But that doesn't mean they're ready to embrace a president whose poll numbers continue to hover below 40 percent. Indeed, four months before a midterm election that still stirs deep anxiety within GOP ranks, the question for many is no longer whether they'll distance themselves from Bush. It's how aggressively, and how far.

Continue reading Politiscope

Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) will announce today that Thurgood Marshall Jr.will become a senior adviser to Bayh's All America PAC. Marshall was cabinet secretrary for Preslident Clinton and a leg. affiars director for ex-VP Al Gore.

And yes -- he is the son of you know who.

Oh, and he is the brother of John Marshall, an ex-US Marshal and Virginia state trooper who many think has a bright political future. J. Marshall is in Gov. Tim Kaine's (D) cabinet, but was first appointed by the last VA gov; a fella who we hear also may be interested in '08.

Per a statement from Sen. Russ Feingold: "The Supreme Court’s decision concerning military commissions at Guantanamo Bay is a major rebuke to an Administration that has too often disregarded the rule of law. It is a testament to our system of government that the Supreme Court has stood up against this overreaching by the executive branch."

CNN just alerted:

"The Supreme Court rules President Bush overstepped his authority with military war crimes trials for foreigners held at Guantanamo Bay in a case involving a former driver for Osama bin Laden."

First AP account is up

Last night, FNC’s Bill O’Reilly discussed Rush Limbaugh being caught with a prescription in his doctor’s name. However, at no time in the discussion was the word Viagra mentioned. O’Reilly: “Limbaugh's shaving kit was searched in the Palm Beach airport, and a non-narcotic prescription found” (“O’Reilly Factor,” FNC, 6/28).

And from today’s “Page Six”, in their “Sightings” section: “Rush Limbaugh and Roger Ailes with much to discuss over dinner at Palm West” (Johnson, New York Post, 6/29).

We hear that Phil Kerpen, the executive director of the Free Enterprise Fund, resigned last Friday.

Kerpsen sent this e-mail to friends:

For those who do care, I wanted to let you know that I've decided to leave the Free Enterprise Fund. I resigned on Friday, and though they've made overtures to lure me back, it's very unlikely that I'll return. Simply put, it was no longer the place I felt I could most effectively advance the pro-growth agenda

Kepsen was quickly replaced by Jim Terry, formerly CoS for Rep. John Campbell (R-CA).

The FEF, a 501 (c) 4 chaired by New York merchant banker Mallory Factor, open their doors in January of '05 by luring Stephen Moore from the Club for Growth, but Moore soon left to join the Wall Street Journal's editorial page. The group also nabbed iconic economist Arthur Laffer , now a member of their advisory board. Though the FEF has been successful at placing op-eds in the Wall Street Journal and at generating a bit of media attention, sympathizers aren't convinced the group is very effective.

Says one Republican who follows the internal politics: "The hard pro-growth guys can't sustain an agenda these days I think."

So where will socially libertarian pro-growth GOPers hang their hat?

These folks view the The Club for Growth with suspicion; they're seen by some as shills for the socially conservative business elite. The Club is more heavily involved in electoral politics,, having set itself up as a 527. Though the Club's campaign to rid the GOP of RINOs has played a part in creating tensions with other pro-growth Republicans, another cleavage is material. Whereas the FEF's main priorities today reflect the Wall Street orientation of its founders -- they're lobbying to reform Sarbanes-Oxley and to permanently repeal the estate/death tax -- the Club has been leading the charge against porkbarrel spending and waste. [MARC AMBINDER]

Update: the FEF's Todd Schorle sent this e-mail: "(1) Phil Kerpen was policy director and acting executive director, not executive director. 2) Phil was not replaced, but acting as the ED until someone was hired. 3) The FEF has hired Jim Terry, not Lee Terry. 4) Stephen Moore was not lured away from the Club he was pushed out and then started the FEF on his own.:"

The Weather Channel was all about "Storm Stories" and cable news was all about the rain and floods in the East:

Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) appeared on "LKL," the "Situation Room," and "Live & Direct" to talk about the flooding.

Rendell: "One of the reasons that the mayor -- in consultation with us and FEMA -- decided to evacuate Wilkes-Barre ... was the lessons we learned from Katrina. ... In an abundance of caution, we didn't want to be caught in a Katrina-like situation where the access roads were cut off, the dike broke or the dike was surmounted and we had all our water and no way to get people" ("Live & Direct," MSNBC, 6/28).

More Rendell: "I have not gone up in a chopper, and Senator Santorum and Senator Specter and I are going to do that. But we're not going to do that until it's clear that we don't need our choppers for a search and rescue. Right now you don't want a bunch of politicians taking a chopper that can be used to save lives" ("LKL," CNN, 6/28).

Rendell: "I think the next 12 hours will be pretty crucial for Pennsylvania. Again, we're fighting in 15 counties. ... We're fighting serious problems now. But the next 12 to 14 hours will tell whether this is a full-scale disaster in Pennsylvania" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/28).

TIME AFTER TIME

Rep. Peter King (R-NY) is still getting a lot of air time with his criticism of the New York Times.

King, on his resolution: "The purpose of the resolution is to put Congress on record being absolutely opposed to the leaks that were done, and also calling on the media to realize, you know, the damage that's caused to the United States, to our national security, by what I believe is a reckless disregard for homeland security and national security priorities" ("AC 360," CNN, 6/28).

King's response to a Times editorial criticizing him: "The chairman and ranking members of the Intelligence Committees in the House and Senate, the majority and the minority leaders, the speaker of the House, they all knew of this. And, to me, that is the type of oversight you need. You can't have all 535 members of the House and Senate knowing everything about every top secret operation that is going on. ... This is war. This isn't the same as a highway bill or a tax bill. This is life and death. And the New York Times should understand that" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/28).

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL): "I would advise the president to be cautious about beating up on the press for doing their job. ... My attitude is, let the press do its job and that, you know, in fact a lot of the problems that have arisen in terms of leaks and so forth have to do with just the extraordinary unwillingness of the president and this administration to commit itself to any kind of oversight, from anybody. I mean, it's not just that they don't want the New York Times leaking stories about their activities. They also don't want to share it with Congress" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 6/28).

WH spokesperson Tony Snow: "There are a whole number of options right now, but the Bush administration, the president is not in a position to ask for investigations ... of the press, that simply would be inappropriate" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 6/28).

PLAYING HARDBALL

MO SEN candidate Claire McCaskill (D) was on "Hardball" last night. Asked how she can beat an incumbent SEN, like Jim Talent (R): "You've got a senator who pretty much does whatever the president tells him to do. He votes with President Bush 94 percent of the time, and I must say, I'm not really happy with the Democrats either. I think my success will depend on whether or not Missourians feel comfortable that I can go out to Washington and be very independent and try to find some common sense, common ground" (MSNBC, 6/28).

And Tom DeLay was also on "Hardball." Asked if the GOP could keep control of the House: "I think they'll hold the House. It's too early to tell by how much. Obviously, we're a little behind in some districts around the country, but we've got a long way to go" (MSNBC, 6/28). [EMILY GOODIN]

Watching Democrats deal with the issue of Iraq is like watching the old movie, "Perils of Pauline," writes Charlie Cook.

"Just as everything looks great for them, they do something to get into a jam, and just when it looks like they are in serious trouble, something happens to get them out. It's almost exhausting to watch, but certainly not boring. I see many who refuse to believe any data that is critical or provides bad news for their side, but will then jump on the flimsiest poll numbers if they are favorable."

Read the rest of Cook's Off To The Races.

We could tolerate, barely, Sen Rick Santorum's (R-PA) incessant use of "Bobby Casey Jr" to refer to his Dem rival. And we've somehow stomached Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-NJ) love for the "Jr" in "Tom Kean Jr."

But now we are asking, begging, y'all working in the VA SEN race: spare us of the silly usage of "James H. Webb Jr" and "George Felix Allen Jr" when referring to your opponent.

Maybe you're irking the other guy a bit, but does this sort of sandbox strategy actually move any real votes?

C'mon, the horse has already been beaten plenty.

It's one of the most exciting down-ballot races of the year, and it's tightening. Former Christian Coalition Exec. Dir. Ralph Reed (R), an architect of the GOP's revival in GA, has battled for months against State Sen. Casey Cagle (R). In a Strategic Vision poll out today, Reed leads Cagle by a hair -- 44%-41%.

Cagle's favs stand at a healthy 43%-20%, making him very well-known for a member of the legislature. Reed's unfavs exceeds his favs -- thank Abramoff and an aggresive GA press for that. But he's got the name, the machine in southern GA, the still-strong allegiance of social conservatives. He also boasts a healthy financial lead -- $1.45 million to Cagle's $880K, as of the latest report, filed on 3/31. Next reports are due 7/9. With just 20 days to go until the 7/18 primary, the race is deadlocked.

First, though, ex-Rep. Martin Frost, who was bounced from his TX 24 seat:

"I am disappointed the Court allowed mid-decade redistricting solely for partisan gain to stand, and it saddens me that the Court did not protect the voting rights of African Americans and other minorities in North Texas. However, I am pleased that the Court recognized that the voting rights of South Texas Hispanics had been trampled upon."

Unless otherwise specified, the exceprts are from posts to Rick Hasen's election law listserve.

Loyola's Hasen:

"Partisan gerrymandering claims remain losers, at least for now. I am reminded of the old "Saturday Night Live" routine with "Weekend Update" anchor Chevy Chase reporting: "This just in. Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead." For the Democrats in the this case, and for plaintiffs for the foreseeable future, courts will accept partisan gerrymandering claims (because there is no majority holding them non-justiciable) and then reject the claims because there is no manageable standard. There is no majority still for either rejecting such claims outright, or for accepting them and providing a test for separating permissible and non-permissible consideration of party. Justice Kennedy remains undecided."

NYU's Richard Pildes:

"Immediate practical consequences. Given that the Texas plan is illegal and elections are this fall, there are two options. The Governor could call the legislature into special session to draw a new plan for the fall elections. Ironically, it was through just such special sessions that the legislature created the plan held illegal today. Texas's legislators will thus end up devoting much of the decade to drawing and re-drawing and re-re-drawing a congressional districting plan. When a new plan is drawn to comply with the Court's decision, it is not clear at this stage how if at all the partisan makeup of the delegation might change. Alternatively, Texas could ask the federal court below to stay the decision and permit it to hold elections under the illegal plan."

St. Moritz's Edward Foley:

"With regard to partisan gerrymandering, the important news is that Justice Kennedy remains the swing vote and is still searching for a judicially manageable standard. It is also important that both Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito have deferred, for a future case, whether they believe that a judicially manageable standard exists to adjudicate constitutional claims of partisan gerrymandering. Today's decision says only, in effect, that there is no particular constitutional problem with mid-decade redistricting; all redistricting plans, whenever they occur during the 10 years between census-taking, will need to be evaluated according to the same constitutional standard, if a judicially manageable one can be found."

GMU's Michael McDonald:

"It’s not clear that District 23 can be redrawn without substantively affecting District 28, perhaps even to the point of forcing Cuellar (D-28) and Bonilla (R-23) to run against one another. If that is the case, I suspect there will be a dramatic reorganization of the south part of Texas to make sure that the political damage is minimized. Worst case scenario for the Democrats: If the Republicans so choose, they could redistrict the entire state, while manipulating the difference between the 2000 census and current population growth to shore up any potentially vulnerable Republicans and try to upset some Democratic incumbents; not to neglect the Katrina victims in Houston that need to be considered. The Supreme Court has said re-redistricting is permissible and since Texas has to redistrict anyway, why not?"

Volunteer PAC, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s leadership PAC, has hired Marcus Branstad to serve as Director of Field Operations in Iowa. Mr. Branstad will support Senator Frist’s mission of getting Republicans elected in 2006. He will organize Volunteer PAC’s efforts to ensure Iowa Republicans keep the majority and Jim Nussle is elected Governor. This is part of Senator Frist’s broader, nationwide effort of keeping the Republican majority and advancing the Republican agenda.

Marcus is the youngest son of former IA Gov. Terry Branstad. He's a young pup, just out of college. His brother Eric Branstard works for the IA state GOP and has more experience... and is a get yet to be gotten.

It seems like Rudy Giuliani is popping up everywhere these days....

There are conflicting rumblings from the blogosphere on the immigration front today. Pres. Bush immigration plan supporter Rep. Chris Cannon's (R-UT 03) big win over businessman John Jacob (R) looks like a setback for pro-enforcement GOPers, but at the same time Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) has come out with statements many pro-enforcement bloggers interpret as movement away from Bush's "amnesty" plan.

Read the Hotline's
Blogometer

Those developments, plus reax from 6/27 primaries, WH'08 news, Election'06 round-up, and a possible GOP opportunity from the New York Times bank record revelation below.

National Journal's Richard Cohen provides us with exclusive post-primary analysis:

Last night's solid win by Rep. Chris Cannon keeps the good news rolling for the Republican Establishment. In the hard-fought and expensive contest in which challenger John Jacob spent about $400,000 -- nearly all of it his own money -- Cannon's 56% of the vote is virtually identical to his victory in 2004 against another hard-line opponent of illegal immigration. Perhaps more significantly for Cannon and GOP regulars, the turnout this time was about 58,000 votes, an increase of more than 10,000 from last time. That's also a boost over this year's scant primary turnout in other states such as Iowa and Virginia.

Cannon's win continues a clear-cut pattern for GOP primaries that have been contested on immigration: Hard-liner single-issue candidates continue to lose. That was the case in the CA 50 primary that Brian Bilbray won -- both for the special election in 4/06 and the 6/06 contest for a two-year term -- plus this month's primary challenge against Rep. David Dreier. And that was the case two years ago when several GOP incumbents faced stiff challenges, including Cannon, and Arizona Reps. Jeff Flake and Jim Kolbe. The lesson, according to NRCC spokesman Carl Forti: "If you look at history, single issue candidates are always hard pressed to win." That's worth keeping in mind in primary contests scheduled later this year, including the hard-fought AZ 08 GOP primary for Kolbe's open seat.

More broadly, the continuing success of incumbents is a message to Democratic strategists. In the words of Forti, again: "The more important thing here is that this reinforces the power of incumbency. It's very, very difficult to knock off an incumbent, be it in a primary or a general election." Keep in mind that no more than five GOP House incumbents have lost in any election since 1998. If House Democrats can't do better than that, they will remain in the minority. Last night's outcome also has an important legislative context. With Jacob falling short in his attacks on Cannon, a Judiciary Committee member whose support for an expanded guest-worker program has made him a leading GOP consensus-builder on immigration, the result ironically could strengthen House GOP leaders' hand in trying to cut a legislative deal later this year.

Look for Cannon to play an active role as they try to find a delicate balance among President Bush, hard-liners in their own Conference, and bipartisan Senate allies of a more accommodative approach for illegal aliens. Such a deal now seems more likely than just a week ago, when many observers were reading the death notice for immigration legislation. As Cannon said late last night, "We can solve this issue. Eighty per cent of the American people want a reasonable solution."

From a short e-mail sent around by Rep. Mike Pence's office:

PENCE MEETS WITH PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT ON IMMIGRATION REFORM
CONGRESSMAN INVITED TO WHITE HOUSE TO PRESENT PENCE PLAN IN 11 A.M. OVAL OFFICE MEETING

The Pence plan (a) closes the border as best as possible (b) requires illegal immigrants to return home or to one of several "Ellis Island centers" in their home country to apply for work visas (c) sets up a guest worker program that favors those who began the process legally and (d) punishes employers who don't follow the law.

Here's the full opinion.

From SCOTUSBlog:

The Supreme Court, splintering widely, on Wednesday found an insufficient claim of partisan gerrymandering in the Texas congressional redistricting. It also rejected a challenge to mid-decade congressional redistricting. It did not rule on whether all partisan gerrymander claims are beyond judicial review. The Court is split on that issue, and the division remains. It found the state's new District 23 invalid under the federal Voting Rights Act. District 24 was upheld against a Voting Rights Act challenge.

Here is a key paragraph in Justice Anthony M. Kennedy's plurality opinion in the Texas redistricting case: "In sum, we disagree with appellants' view that a legislature's decision to override a valid, court-drawn plan mid-decade is sufficiently suspect to give shape to a reliable standard for identifying unconstiutitonal political gerrymanders. We conclude that appellants have established no legally iimpermissible use of political classifications. For this reason, they state no claim on which relief may be granted for their statewide challenge."

SEN candidate Bob Casey (D-PA) is up with his first television ad.

[BOB CASEY] “I think the priorities in Washington have gotten completely turned around. I believe in a balanced budget … government should live within its means like any small business. It’s why these tax cuts on top of tax cuts for multi-millionaires just don’t make any sense. Or giving corporations tax breaks for sending jobs overseas. We need to reduce the deficit, lower interest rates, and invest in people again. We can do a lot better in Washington. And we will.”

The US Supreme Court has endorsed the constitutionality of Texas's mid-decade redistricting and narrowly upheld the principle of partisan gerrymandering.

But SCOTUS threw out the lines circumscribing the 23rd congressional district. And it did not decide whether partisan redistricted maps are immune from legal review. Justice Kennedy wrote the plurality opinion.

More...

We don't usually do vote tallies here, but lots of you want to know who voted against the flag amendment.

Akaka, D-Hawaii, Bennett, R-Utah, Biden, D-Del., Bingaman, D-N.M., Boxer, D-Calif., Byrd, D-W.Va., Cantwell, D-Wash., Carper, D-Del., Chafee, R-R.I., Clinton, D-N.Y., Conrad, D-N.D., Dodd, D-Conn., Dorgan, D-N.D., Durbin, D-Ill., Feingold, D-Wis., Harkin, D-Iowa, Inouye, D-Hawaii, Jeffords, I-Vt., Kennedy, D-Mass., Kerry, D-Mass., Kohl, D-Wis., Lautenberg, D-N.J., Leahy, D-Vt., Levin, D-Mich., Lieberman, D-Conn., McConnell, R-Ky., Mikulski, D-Md., Murray, D-Wash., Obama, D-Ill., Pryor, D-Ark., Reed, D-R.I., Sarbanes, D-Md., Schumer, D-N.Y., Wyden, D-Ore.

Which led to this amusing article from Iowa. " Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., had planned to be in Clinton on Tuesday night, but stayed in Washington, D.C., for the debate on the flag-burning amendment."

Just in case you can't read between the lines of a local newspaper... the message is that Kerry eschewed an Iowa visit in order to stay in Washington to vote against the flag-burning amendment.

Here's the latest ripostes from the proxy war between the campaigns of Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and ex-Navy Secretary James Webb (D).

The frission started when Allen mgr Dick Wadhams, in a statement on Webb's oppositon to a flag burning amendment, said this: “Now that we know that James H. Webb, Jr. is following Kerry, Kennedy and Schumer in opposing the Flag Protection Amendment, maybe he will finally take a position on other ‘real issues’ such as immediate withdrawal from Iraq and immigration,” Wadhams said. “His positions change daily.”

Steve Jarding, a Webb adviser, responded with an angry missive here.

Wadhams's rebuttal.

And now, a statement from Jarding, e-mailed to us late last night.

"Dick Wadhams is a wounded dog and he is lashing out. First, he was reprimanded publicly for arrogantly and inexplicably berating a national independent pollster who simply stated his findings in a Wall Street Journal poll which showed Allen to be in big trouble against the independent and refreshing Jim Webb. Then Wadhams rudely, irreverently, and inexplicably attacked a highly decorated Vietnam veteran in Jim Webb for his position on freedom of speech. Dick Wadhams' tired old slash and burn politics strategy is now biting him in the behind because Jim Webb and his campaign will not roll over to this plastic, smoke and mirrors campaign tactic. And Wadhams wonders why people are calling for his head. And Dick, one more thing, I am too old and have been through too many wars to respond to your comments that I am acting "tough." This isn't about you or me, Dick. And it is no act. George Allen's rubber stamp of all things Bush and his eagerness to cave to special interests have hurt too many Americans, have shattered too many dreams and have squashed too many opportunities for tens of thousands of Virginians and millions of Americans. The truth is, Dick, this fight is bigger than either one of us. I trust the people of Virginia to send you that message."

Wadhams this a.m. sent a memo to Virginia reporters and editors pointing out the exchange. Here's an excerpt -- the full memo is after the jump.

When it was reported yesterday morning that Webb opposed the amendment, we issued a press release pointing out he stood with those that supported him in the Democratic Primary, Senators John Kerry, Charles Schumer and Ted Kennedy, who also opposed the Flag Protection Amendment. From that, Webb’s political consultant hysterically extrapolated it was an “attack on Webb’s patriotism.” Huh? So now we know whenever we publicly ask Webb to take a position on an issue that is being debated and voted on in the U.S. Senate, we will be accused of “attacking Webb’s patriotism.” Whenever we contrast Senator Allen’s clear positions on the many issues affecting Virginia and the United States versus those of Webb we can anticipate they will resort to breathlessly accusing us of “attacking Webb’s patriotism.”

Webb's campaign is sending a message here: we won't be swift-boated, we won't dare let Allen get away with questioning our patriotism. Allen's campaign is also sending a message: we know what Jim Webb's buttons are, and we're gonna push them.

Did Sen. Hillary Clinton have any Democrat in mind when she said:

People can talk all they want how they want to be a part of ending poverty, but...don't let people get away with nice words. Don't let them come and quote scripture.

Hmm.

Which Democrat talked scripturally and glowingly about ending poverty recently?

Update: A Clinton adviser insists that the comments were directed at President Bush, and only at President Bush.

Speaking to a conventional of religious liberals today, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) plans to say that "the majority of great reformers" in history used "religious language to argue for their cause."

And when Dems fail to appeal to evangelicals, they cede the field. Says Obama: "In other words, if we don’t reach out to evangelical Christians and other religious Americans and tell them what we stand for, Jerry Falwell’s and Pat Robertson’s will continue to hold sway."

"Because when we ignore the debate about what it means to be a good Christian or Muslim or Jew; when we discuss religion only in the negative sense of where or how it should not be practiced, rather than in the positive sense of what it tells us about our obligations towards one another; when we shy away from religious venues and religious broadcasts because we assume that we will be unwelcome -- others will fill the vacuum, those with the most insular views of faith, or those who cynically use religion to justify partisan ends."

"More fundamentally, the discomfort of some progressives with any hint of religion has often prevented us from effectively addressing issues in moral terms. Some of the problem here is rhetorical – if we scrub language of all religious content, we forfeit the imagery and terminology through which millions of Americans understand both their personal morality and social justice. Imagine Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address without reference to “the judgments of the Lord,” or King’s I Have a Dream speech without reference to “all of God’s children.” Their summoning of a higher truth helped inspire what had seemed impossible and move the nation to embrace a common destiny."

"Moreover, if we progressives shed some of these biases, we might recognize the overlapping values that both religious and secular people share when it comes to the moral and material direction of our country. We might recognize that the call to sacrifice on behalf of the next generation, the need to think in terms of “thou” and not just “I,” resonates in religious congregations across the country. And we might realize that we have the ability to reach out to the evangelical community and engage millions of religious Americans in the larger project of America’s renewal."

Get results and analysis here.

MSNBC's Shuster: "President Bush and his staff got the headlines they wanted: 'Bush Condemns Report on Sifting of Bank Records'" ("Hardball," 6/27).

CNN's Henry: "Unlike the NSA domestic surveillance program, very few Democrats have raised questions about the banking program. Republicans are confident they're on solid legal ground, which is why they're firing away at the Times. And if they score political points with conservatives along the way, so much the better" ("PZ Now," 6/27).

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS): "I'm a great protector of the First Amendment, I'm an old newspaper guy. And secondly, the New York Times has every right ... to print whatever they want. But the question is, is it prudent to do so?" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/27).

Lynne Cheney was on "On the Record":

On being a "24" fan: "I even bought it on DVD the first couple seasons. It's great to exercise to in the morning. You know you put a CD in. You get one episode. You get about 46, 47 minutes of work on your elliptical trainer or, you know, doing some stretching, so it makes the exercise time pass fast and it's a great program."

On what she would do if VP Cheney would say I wanted to run in '08: "I'd probably give him 24 hours to come back to his senses. We're both looking forward, you know, very much to the next two years but both of us very clear eyed about the fact that, you know, then we'll go back to private life" (FNC, 6/27).

Rep. Chris Cannon:      32,306  votes     55.80%
John Jacob:             25,589 votes       41.7%

99% Of the Vote In

SC LT GOV

Andre Bauer     (R)        51.3%                 
Mike Campbell   (R)        48.7%     

SC TREASURER

Thomas Ravenel  (R)     76.5%
Jeff Willis    (R)      23.5%

From a statement released by Steve Jarding, an adviser to Jim Webb's VA Senate campaign.

“George Felix Allen Jr. and his bush-league lapdog, Dick Wadhams, have not earned the right to challenge Jim Webb’s position on free speech and flag burning. Jim Webb served and fought for our flag and what it stands for, while George Felix Allen Jr. chose to cut and run. When he and his disrespectful campaign puppets attack Jim Webb they are attacking every man and woman who served. Their comments are nothing more than weak-kneed attacks by cowards. George Felix Allen Jr. needs to apologize to Jim Webb and to all men and women who have served our nation."

On Tuesday, George Felix Allen Jr. and his campaign issued a press release in which the Allen campaign, through Wadhams, implied that Webb’s position in support of the Free Speech Amendment to the U.S. Constitution amounted to a political act and not a defense of our Constitution, which Webb fought for and for which he was highly decorated. George Felix Allen Jr. did not serve.

“While Jim Webb and others of George Felix Allen Jr.’s generation were fighting for our freedoms and for our symbols of freedom in Vietnam, George Felix Allen Jr. was playing cowboy at a dude ranch in Nevada. People who live in glass dude ranches should not question the patriotism of real soldiers who fought and bled for this country on a real battlefield,” Jarding said.

There's a lot more, and the full release is posted after the jump, as is the statement to which Jarding and Webb reacted.

Here's what Wadhams e-mailed to us in response:

"Sad and pathetic but predictable from a campaign that resorted to using an anti-Semitic cartoon against their opponent in the primary. So I guess anytime Webb's vacillation on issues is questioned they will resort to this. Since the rumor is out there that the DSCC will be taking over the campaign replacing the staff and consultants I guess Jarding had to try and show how tough he is."

Highlights of the House Republican's "American Values Agenda" -- the "choice, not a referendum" theme chosen by the leadership. The chances of these making it to the president's desk by November are...wel...

Speaker Hastert: "The American Values Agenda will defend America's founding principles. Through this agenda, we will work to protect the faith of our people, the sanctity of life and freedoms outlined by our founding fathers. Radical courts have attempted to gut our religious freedom and redefine the value system on which America was built. We hope to restore some of those basic values through passing this legislative agenda and renewing our country's commitment to faith, freedom and life."

Pledge Protection Act (HR 2389; Akin)

Summary: Protects the Pledge of Allegiance from attacks by activist federal judges seeking to rule it unconstitutional.

Freedom to Display the American Flag Act (HR 42; Bartlett)

Summary: Ensures an individual has the right to display the U.S. flag on residential property.

The Public Expression of Religion Act (HR 2679; Hostettler)

Summary: Ensures local officials and communities do not face financial ruin to defend their rights to free speech under the Constitution (provides that when state or local officials are sued over public expressions of religion, no monetary damages, costs, or attorney's fees may be awarded).

Marriage Amendment (HJRes 88; Musgrave)

Summary: Constitutional amendment declaring marriage to be between a man and a woman

Unborn Child Pain Awareness Act (HR 356; C. Smith)

Summary: Requires that those performing late-term abortions inform the woman seeking an abortion of the medical evidence that the unborn child feels pain, and ensure that if she chooses to continue with the abortion procedure, she has the option of choosing anesthesia for the child, so that the unborn child's pain is less severe.

Human Cloning Prohibition Act (HR 1357; D. Weldon)

Summary: Bans human cloning and the importation of products derived from a cloned human embryo (e.g. stem cells).

BATFE Reform (HR 5092; Coble)

Summary: Reforms the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives (BATFE) to protect citizens' rights.

Internet Gambling Prohibition (Leach/Goodlatte):

Summary: Addresses the issue of illegal internet gambling by making gambling laws apply equally to the internet.

Permanent Tax Relief for Families

Summary: Likely series of votes on the child tax credit, marriage penalty relief, tax incentives for adoption, and other priorities for American citizens.

Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act (HR 5013; Jindal)
Summary: Prohibits governments from using federal funds to confiscate guns from law-abiding citizens during emergencies.

Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA 06) represents a suburban Philly CD which voted for Kerry and is trending Dem. Conventional wisdom suggested he'll have to attract independent voters by moving to the center. But his first ad, which touts his hawkish positions on border security, defies that logic.

-- The ad, airing exclusively in Bucks County, also attacks President Bush's immigration proposal as "amnesty." He personally advocates for more "security fencing" and "tougher penalties" for illegal immigrants. Gerlach voted for the House immigration bill, but hadn't highlighted the issue until recently.

-- The response from Lois Murphy's (D) spokesperson? "Immigration isn't an issue here like it would be in other places." There seems to be a total disconnect between both sides, and something's got to give.

-- In the fall, Dems are betting that independent voters will be turned off by tough talk on immigration. But, given Gerlach's newfound emphasis on the subject, it seems just as likely that GOPers may have found an issue to turn out disaffected suburbanites. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Today's South Carolina primary runoff may not be terribly exciting, though it does feature some races that Beltway insiders would find exciting. The race most will talk about is for LG, in which incumbent Andre Bauer (R) is running for re-election as an underdog to businessman Mike Campbell (R), who outpolled Bauer in the primary but narrowly missed earning enough support to avoid the runoff. Campbell is the son of ex-SC Gov. Carroll Campbell (R).

But the really interesting race is the battle for the GOP nod for Treasurer. In that contest, developer Jeff Willis (R) takes on developer and '04 Sen candidate Thomas Ravenel (R). Ravenel handily defeated three rivals in the primary but couldn't quite pass the threshold needed for preventing the runoff. Two of his opponents dropped out, but Willis -- who managed just 6.7% in the primary -- decided to continue, despite a phone call from Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) asking him to withdraw and unite around Ravenel.

It's Graham's work on behalf of Ravenel that's raised eyebrows around the state. In '04, Ravenel missed making a runoff against weakened ex-Gov. David Beasley (R) by just 5K votes to then-Rep. Jim DeMint (R). DeMint crushed Beasley in the runoff, and many believe Ravenel would be a Sen today had he made up those votes.

Graham and Ravenel haven't been the closest of friends or political allies in the past. Ravenel has criticized Graham for a number of positions the senator's taken, including judicial nominations, tax cuts and tariffs -- all of which he addressed in an open letter to Graham about a year ago. And in SC, it's an open secret that Ravenel, should he lose this race, may challenge Graham in 2 years. Ravenel told the Greenville News that he was "open to considering running" against Graham, while a recent Treas. debate centered around Ravenel's failure to declare that he won't abandon his seat to make a run. Published reports have suggested that Ravenel even promised his support to a one-time rival in '08 because he'd take on Graham. And he's been openly courted by Manuel Miranda, chair of the Third Branch Conference in DC.

Graham would be wise to do what he can to avoid the challenge. Ravenel pumped upwards of $2.7 million of his own money into that race, and there's plenty more where that came from. But Graham's efforts to smooth the way for Ravenel may go unrewarded. Asked what he told Graham when the senator called to ask him to drop out of the runoff and allow Ravenel to start his campaign against the incumbent Dem unimpeeded, Willis told the News: "I wished him the best in two years when Thomas challenges him." [REID WILSON]

MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has visited South Carolina twice this year, seeding various GOP campaigns with contributions and meeting with activists. Now he is putting some boots on the ground.

Nick Breeding will serve as Field Director there for Romney's Commonwealth PAC, aiding '06 candidates and no doubt making sure the gov's resources and visits are well spent. Breeding moved down to SC earlier this month from DC where he had been serving under Romney as Dep Pol Director of the RGA. A VA native, Breeding is not new to the Palmetto State. He worked for the SC GOP during the '02 cycle -- when Gov. Mark Sanford (R) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) were elected -- and knows the key activists and operatives there. Breeding will be based in Columbia, but will join Romney when he travels to SC as he did last week.

Romney's SC staff hire comes on the heels of his unveiling an "Iowa Advisory Committee" upon visiting the Hawkeye State two weeks ago. The list of GOP activists is tasked with helping '06 candidates but also could form the nucleus for Romney's '08 caucus team.

Romney is not just focusing on early primary states, however. He was in DC yesterday, and had private meetings with both House Maj Leader John Boehner (R) and Whip Roy Blunt (R).

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Some quotes to illustrate the importance of this race.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) was profiled on Pat Robertson’s show, The "700 Club," where he answered a reporter’s questions on his religion:

Asked about some religious conservatives considering Mormonism a "cult": "When people make references that I disagree with, I generally conclude they don't have all the facts. If they had all the facts, they'd feel differently."

More: "I think people, if the only thing they know about people is their faith and if their faith is not well-known, and if their faith is a little different from their own, then they're going to say 'That's a problem for me.' I'm proud of people of faith. I think Americans want people of faith to lead their country. Generally, they don't care so much about the particular brand of faith if the people they're looking at the same values of them. And people of my religion have the values of other great religions represented in this country."

He continues: "People said, 'Could a Mormon win here in a state that's what -- 50, 55% Catholic?' Well the answer is yeah. Could an actor who's been divorced win as president? Yeah. Ronald Reagan was able to do that."

On abortion: "I'm firmly pro-life."

On saying he would keep MA's abortion law intact: "I made it very clear that while in the past I said I would preserve the laws of Massachusetts as they existed that I was firmly pro-life and that I would support justices and policies that were pro-life."

More: "As governor, all the vetoes that have come to desk dealing with abortion, I have sided with the side of life" (ABC Family, 11/26).

MN Publius notices that MN Sen. candidate Mark Kennedy has scrubbed his congressional website of all references to President Bush.

There's nothing the media likes more than to debate its own ethics and last night was no exception. There was a lot of talk on the New York Times' story on tracking banking records. Most reporters defended the paper and most people on FNC were outraged about it.

Newsweek's Thomas: "The New York Times is pretty careful about these things. You know, we don't know whether there has been some harm to our national security. But the record from the past is there rarely is in these cases and both the Times and the Post have been really pretty careful in this area historically. So I'm inclined to believe that they've been careful this time too" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/26).

New York Times exec editor Bill Keller, asked if he worries about prosecution: "So far, the administration, and, in particular, the attorney general, while they have dropped some hints about prosecution, they have not embraced in full the argument that the Espionage Act applies to journalists. My amateur reading and the reading of some of the lawyers who work for us is that that would be a big, big stretch of the law."

Asked who outside the admin asked them not to publish, Keller: "Tom Kean, Lee Hamilton and Congressman Jack Murtha" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/26).

FNC's Angle: "For now, even the critics don't think it's possible to prosecute the New York Times but many do ask what the rationale could possibly be for a newspaper to expose a classified program that is effective against the terrorists, when its own investigation uncovers no wrongdoing or legal abuses" ("Special Report," 6/26).

FNC's O'Reilly: "The New York Times may have reached the tipping point. The paper is chock full of far left columnists. And now its news pages could be damaging national security. So what should be done? I'm not sure. I don't want to see these people prosecuted. And I don't think they will be. That would send a terrible message about freedom of the press. But in the court of public opinion, each American should make the call" ("O'Reilly Factor," 6/26).

Rep. Peter King (R-NY): "There is absolutely no question here ... that it's effective, that it's saving American lives that it's working. There's absolutely no rationale in the world [for publishing the story]" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 6/26).

Newt Gingrich: "There's zero news here, except to say that the U.S. is being effective in fighting the war on terror. ... Any American who cares about stopping the terrorists and catching the terrorists before they do something terrible has to ask themselves how the New York Times could have should colossal bad judgment" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 6/26). [EMILY GOODIN]

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CT Sen. candidate Ned Lamont will begin to air a television ad tomorrow that yokes Joe Lieberman's voice to a picture of President Bush, whose lips are digitally altered to mouth Lieberman's words.

The ad features audio of Lieberman saying that "In matters of war, we undermine the president's credibility at our nation's peril" and "We're at a point in Iraq where war is a necessity."

If it talks like George W. Bush and acts like George W. Bush, it's certainly not a Connecticut Democrat.

If Lamont wins this thing, this ad will become legendary.

BTW: the Lamont campaign clearly wants the media to notice this ad and to broadcast it widely in their news stories. Call it a video press release. But it's very provocative.

At first glance, Rep. Sue Kelly (R-NY 19) would seem like a vulnerable incumbent -- especially with a tough environment statewide.

The Dem candidate with momentum is musician John Hall, best known for his '70s hit "Still The One." He won three key county endorsements by big margins. And he's been on a fundraising roll. Since the last filing period, he banked over $100K for a fundraiser with Jackson Browne and he's expected to raise more from a Bonnie Raitt concert.

Hall's also the most liberal candidate in the field. He supports an immediate withdrawal from Iraq and touts his plan for universal health care. Meanwhile, atty. Judy Aydelott, once viewed as the frontrunner, has underperformed at county conventions.

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Dems believe the demographics are tilting in their favor, as many NYC commuters are moving into the fast-growing CD. Bush, though, won here with 54% of the vote in '04. Hall may be a hit with the activists. But if he's the nominee, will he be "the One" best suited to win over moderate suburbanites? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

62% of Show-Me Staters would like to be shown the benefits of gov't-funded stem cell research, according to the latest Research 2000 poll, conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. And that number is good news for Aud. Claire McCaskill (D), a supporter of the measure, in her bid to replace Sen. Jim Talent (R), who opposes it.

McCaskill leads Talent 49%-43% in the survey, and she may be helped by ballot measures that boost turnout among Dems and indies more likely to cast their ballot her way. Alongside the stem cell initiative -- which, by the way, garners support from 64% of indies and 40% of GOPers -- a ballot initiative that would raise the minimum wage to $6.50 an hour boasts a giant 66%-21% lead, with the support of 71% of indie voters.

Could these two initiatives actually bring indies into McCaskill's camp? Whether they do or not, they look headed for easy passage. [REID WILSON]

That's what Democrats are calling Sunday's New York Times story, wherein longtime defense writer Michael Gordon broke the news about Gen. George Casey's draft withdrawal plans for Iraq troop drawdowns.

Dem press secretaries were instructed this week to "stay on the offensive."

In practice, that means:

## using the Casey article to, as one internal Senate memo puts it, hammer home the message that Dems "stand with the Generals, the American people and the Iraqi Government in recognizing the need for a new direction in Iraq."

## Point out, wherever possible, that "Republicans in Congress and the White House stand alone on no plan and no end in Iraq, and insisting on staying the course and staying forever."

## Blast Republicans for "endorsing" P.M. al-Maliki's amensty feelers.

Quoth the memo:

"All offices should be focused on this -- in statements, interviews, everywhere. Sen. Reid will be going to the Floor later today to discuss these issues."

Also today, Democrats will conduct a show hearing into pre-war intel. Witnesses include ex-Powell CoS Larry Wilkerson, ex-Iraq Survey Group adviser Rod Barton (who will testify about politics intruding into the ISG's work), and ex-CIA senior intelligence officer Paul Piller.

The Republicans start out the week on the defensive, at least slightly. Instead of advancing the theme that Democrats are cutting and running, they were forced to explain how Gen. Casey's withdrawal scenario differed from John Kerry's. (There is a distinction: Casey was presenting a workable plan to draw down troops provided specific conditions on the ground are met; the calendar he unveils is secondary. In theory.)

A new ABC News/Washington Poll suggests that American reservations to a timetable-based troop withdrawal are softening, but 51 percent still oppose a date certain; 47 percent support it.

The GOP takes comfort from their own polls showing that independents have more qualms about a calendar-pegged withdrawal, and the Post/ABC poll finds that 44 percent of them "support a deadline for withdrawing troops."

In Justice Sam Alito's first case on campaign finance, the Supreme Court knocked out tringent spending and contribution limits Vermont intended to impose on state-wide officeholders.

The 6-3 decision, authored by Justice Stephen Breyer, held that while the state had a legitimate reason for regulating contributions and spending, the limits it created were "severely disproportionate." The 1976 Buckley v. Valeo decision and subsequent cases gave precedent states to act against corruption or the appearance of corruption but the court today concluded that Vermont's attempt to regulate spending (which Buckley concluded was the more-protected act of the two) and contributions might actually hamstring candidates from participating in competitive elections.

Even "[c]ontribution limits that are too low also can harm the electoral process by preventing challengers from mounting effective campaigns against incumbent officeholders, thereby reducing democratic accountability""
State law limited spending by GOV candidates to $300K and for other statewide races to $45K. The law, adopted in '97, was signed ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean, now the DNC chair. Since then, it's been wrapped up in litigation.

We're not law bloggers, but we're fairly certain this paragraph is important and politically relevant:

"JUSTICE BREYER, joined by THE CHIEF JUSTICE in Parts II–B–1 and II–B–2, rejected the respondents’ argument that Buckley should, in effect, be overruled because subsequent experience has shown that contribution limits alone cannot effectively deter corruption or its appearance. Stare decisis, the basic legal principle commanding judicial respect for a court’s earlier decisions and their rules of law, prevents the overruling of Buckley. Adherence to precedent is the norm; departure from it is exceptional."

Also: "JUSTICE ALITO agreed that Act 64’s expenditure and contribution limits violate the First Amendment, but concluded that respondents’ backup argument asking this Court to revisit Buckley v. Valeo, 424
U. S. 1, need not be reached because they have failed to address considerations of stare decisis."

The Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten and Tom Hamburger are on the precipice of publishing their book, One Party Country, about the Republican Party's strategic and technological domination of the American political landscape. The two previewed their wares and scoops in a Times opinion piece this weekend.

Here's a passage that struck us:

Perhaps more than any other administration, the White House of George W. Bush has mastered the art of mixing politics and policy and keeping track of how federal government decisions can affect even obscure local elections. Rove, with a broad portfolio and extraordinary influence, introduced a new political doctrine, effectively putting the federal bureaucracy and the bully pulpit of the White House in the service of GOP political ends.

All administrations are political, of course. But never before has the White House inserted electoral priorities into Cabinet agencies with such regularity and deliberation. Before the 2002 midterm elections, for instance, Rove or Mehlman visited with the managers of many federal agencies to share polling information and discuss how policy decisions might affect key races.

In 2002, Rove told Interior Department officials of the importance of helping farmers in Oregon whose political support was crucial to Gordon Smith, a vulnerable Republican senator. Within months, perhaps because of Rove's exhortations, the agency did just that, supporting the diversion of water from the environmentally important Klamath River for the sake of irrigating farmland. Thousands of salmon eventually died in the newly shallow waters. But the senator secured his reelection.

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

Everyone we talked to in WI, unlike other states, knew immediately which CDs current state legislators were in. Clearly, both parties have put a lot of thought into future candidacies in WI 01, 02, 03 and 07. WI 08 is one of the hottest races in the country today, and GOPers are chomping at the bit to succeed their Reps in WI 05, a safe R district, and WI 06, which tilts GOP but not by much. Dems, though, "wish our bench was deeper," according to one source. And GOPers still feel the influence of ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). Everyone of that party we talked with made a point of telling us which rising stars were especially close to Thompson. {REID WILSON]

Foreign policy dominated the Sunday shows this weekend:

Sen. Russ Feingold led off "Meet the Press" with a discussion of Iraq.

On Gen. George Casey planning to reduce troops, Feingold: "It sort of shows that all this talk about a timetable being unreasonable or ridiculous is just wrong. Even General Casey is talking about how realistic it is to bring the troops home, and our timetable that we proposed last week had to do with bringing the troops home within one year. I mean, how is this different? ... This plan is very similar to the type of thing that Senator Kerry and I actually proposed in the United States Senate this week."

More: "Our plan is so similar to what he's talking about it makes me wonder what the Republicans of the United States Senate and others were talking about when they said a timetable was a sort of a crazy idea. It's a perfectly reasonable idea."

He continues: "The question is, do we just keep making the same mistake over and over again? Do we just stay in Iraq so that Cheney and Bush can say that they were right? That appears to be why we're there. That appears to be the only logical reason to stay in a situation that is draining our military, that is hurting our recruiting, that is allowing Osama bin Laden to have us exactly where he wants us."

Asked if the Dem WH nominee will have to say a "yes" vote on Iraq was a mistake, Feingold: "I don't think it'll be necessary. I think people should say what they truly believe. If they truly believe it was a good idea and that their vote was right, they should say so. If they think they made a mistake, they should say so. People are looking for a candidate, whether it's a Democrat or a Republican, who they perceive as being honest and straightforward."

Asked if the Dem party is out of touch with the American people, Feingold: "Yes, it is at this point. Those who vote against bringing the troops home don't get it. They're not out there enough. They're not listening to the people. Frankly, they're not even looking at the polls."

Asked if Pres. Bush deserves impeachment, Feingold: "I think he's committed an impeachable offense, in other words, something that could be within that category, but that doesn't mean we should do it. ... That's specifically why ... I propose censure. I think it would be disruptive to America to have an impeachment proceeding."

On the New Republic cover showing him slaying Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) in the Dem WH primary: "I have no interest in defeating anyone, including Hillary Clinton. I admire her. I think she's a talented person who is ready to be president. If I decide to run, I'm going to run because I think I'm the person that can do the job, and I would try to win on my own merits. In fact, Hillary came into the caucus when we saw that picture, and she kidded me that we looked pretty good on that cover, although I'm not sure I did" (NBC, 6/25).

LOTS OF SENATORS, LOTS OF TALK

Sens. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and Joe Biden (D-DE) were on "Late Edition." They discussed the situation in Iraq and North Korea.

Hagel: "Let's not be unmindful of the fact that we are now in Iraq longer than the Korean war lasted. Another five months of the Iraqi war, we'll be in longer than World War II lasted. ... We're not going to be able to sustain it politically. But the fact is, the Iraqis want us out. We should be out. They need to govern and support themselves, and we can't be there forever."

Welcome to the Weekender. It's a new On Call experiment. Each Friday, we'll end the day with a longish post that probes an idea or a contested race or a political development that fascinates us. Last week, we gave you four reasons to pay attention to the Southern Baptist Convention's presidential election. This week, we tackle the conventional wisdom that Sen. George Allen’s 2008 hopes will be bruised by his competitive race and provide eight other reasons why Allen/Webb is this cycle's Daschle/Thune.

# For the fist time in his political career, Sen. George Allen is not running against the establishment or as the agent of change.

Consider his history: after losing an initial state House campaign (wearing wingtips), Allen put on his now-famous cowboy boots and steered a pickup truck to victory over a 10-year incumbent in a Charlottesville-area General Assembly seat in ’82.

When he first ran for Congress 9 years later, he beat a Democrat who represented one of the final branches of Harry Byrd’s legacy in the state; the seat had been vacated by D. French Slaughter (R), and Slaughter’s Democratic cousin, Kay Slaughter, stepped in to run. Allen won with a platform promising he’d go to Washington and fight for Virginia’s beleaguered taxpayers. He outspent her two-to-one and successfully portrayed her as too liberal for the conservative district. Curiously – a major Allen talking point in that campaign was that Slaughter opposed the first Gulf war. (James Webb, too, opposed the first Gulf War.) BTW: Slaughter's son, French, Jr., was favored to win the GOP nomination in this special election and Allen stomped him.

Allen was the conservative change candidate against the Democratic establishment in 1993 – he promised to end 12 years of Democratic foolery in the executive, referring to two-term AG and governor-in-waiting Mary Sue Terry as “Mary Sue Antoinette”. (Among the first lines of his victory speech: “The days of tax-and-spend liberalism in Virginia are over.) He ran on much the same script against incumbent Sen. Charles Robb (D) in '00. Robb was too liberal for the state, Allen charged. The fire-him, hire-me argument worked in part because Allen linked Robb to the eight years of Clintons and reminded VA’ians of his ample record as governor. (It’s neither here nor there, but the race was also notable for Allen’s difficulty with abortion politics.) .

Now, Allen, who frequently refers to his loyal followers as “fellow insurgents,” is tasked with defending the president's Iraq position and the work of Republicans in Congress generally from a position of incumbency. Even if he tries to force some daylight between him and Congress -- and we expect this self-styled Jeffersonian conservative to certainly try -- it will be difficult to position himself as the change agent in the race.”

## Allen will tout his decades of legislative and gubernatorial experience. Webb will be cast as having a “steep learning curve” about policy. But Allen won’t just run a conventional incumbent campaign He’s running ads on black radio stations now, directly addressing a vulnerability. He’ll portray his position on the war as sound and coherent – and Webb’s as bizarre and convoluted. He’ll do his best not to let Webb define Allen as a Bush Republican or as a stalwart support of the war. He won’t be afraid to seek from Webb a full and broad foreign policy vision. [MARC AMBINDER]

If America is truly a market-driven society, then the sales at "Political Americana" in downtown Washington should tell us a little something about which politicians the voters are willing to invest in. The store, located on the corner of Penn and 14th, carries everything from full-size Ronald Reagan cutouts to Washington Monument trinkets. But it also carries a healthy stock of 2008 campaign paraphernalia (all home-made of course) and tracks who is leading what could be called the Corner Store Straw Poll.

It’s no surprise that as of May 31, 2006, Hillary Clinton was leading the pack of Democratic hopefuls. Hillary '08 buttons claimed 37% of the 330 sales for Dems, while John Edwards and Barack Obama trailed with 16% and 15%, respectively. It dropped off after that, with the next closest candidates, Mark Warner and Russ Feingold, 5% each. One interesting note: the Dem customers seemed to have John Kerry fatigue, who registered only 1% of the total buttons sold -- even fewer than Harry Reid (2%).

Republicans were much more spread out: Condoleezza Rice was the fan-favorite. Her ’08 buttons outsold all other GOPers with 14% of the 239 sales. Also in the mix were Mitt Romney with 13% and Rudy Giuiliani, carrying 12%. Where was John McCain, you ask? At a meager 7%, fewer than rival GOP maverick Chuck Hagel (9%).

Sure, it’s just another straw poll. But it’s the only one we know about where voters actually put their money where their mouths are. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

HotlineTV brings the best of political journalism to life, as editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio duke it out over the week’s hottest political stories. It's the no-holds-barred commentary you expect only from The Hotline, now in living color.

Visit us every Friday for new episodes with the two sharpest wits on the Washington political scene, or subscribe to our video podcast in iTunes.

In this week's episode of Hotlne TV:

FL CFO Tom Gallagher admits an affair, which leads to revelations that all but one FL GOVer has personal issues. Remember when it was just about Monica?

Halftime! What's the big show? CT SEN, biggest show since one involving Janet Jackson.

So let's get this straight: The public wants out of Iraq. Lots of Dems want out of Iraq. And now Dems are playing defense to GOPers on the issue? Are they TRYING to lose?

Finally, we debut the bandwagon, where we jump on and off each week. What can we say? We're fickle. By the way, got some viewer mail from Or-y-gun. Thanks, Myles!

And, of course, the fastest 2 minutes in politics.

Take 49. Subtract 37. You're left with 12. So is Rep. Mark Green (R-WI), who has to make up 12% in what many think should be a closer race against WI Gov. Jim Doyle (D). In the latest Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll, Doyle leads in most regions of the state, save Green's home turf of Green Bay and the Milwaukee suburbs. And surprisingly, only 48% of WIans think the state's headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to 43% who think it's going the right way.

What's most surprising about these numbers, however, is that they defy the conventional wisdom that WI would be a difficult seat for Dems to hold, thanks to poor economic conditions in the region. We thought the theory of Midwestern Funk had been given ammo earlier this week when MI's Jennifer Granholm (D) trailed challenger Dick DeVos (R) in three separate polls.

Maybe WI's just trending more Dem than neighboring MI? Or is Green seen as a creature of corrupt, lazy DC?[REID WILSON]

WH Press Sec Tony Snow announced during his briefing about an hour ago that Pres Bush's lone cabinet Dem, Sec of Transportation Norm Mineta, will resign.

Per a senior DOT official, Minea informed Bush of his plans last week as they flew up to the Merchant Marine Academy's commencement exercises. Bush told the House Transpo Committee chair turned Clinton Commerce Sec that he could stay in his post for as long as he liked, but Mineta said he'd made up his mind.

There has been chatter for sometime about Mineta stepping down because of health concerns, but he is said to be leaving for another, as yet undisclosed, opportunity.

Mineta informed his senior staff of his decision at an inpromput 9:15 a.m. meeting today. DepSec Maria Cino -- a veteran GOP operative -- will take over as Acting Sec but is not expected to keep the job.

WIthout any natural Dem in the Congress or among the gov ranks to take over, Mineta may be the first and only Dem to serve in this president's cabinet.

Two potential candidates could be FAA Director Marion Blakey -- who previously chaired the NTSB -- and Labor Sec. Elaine Chao. Choa, like Mineta, has served in the same cabinet post since Bush was first sworn in, but was Bush 41's DepSec of Transportation.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Sen. John Edwards convened a retreat earlier this week for a bevy of top Democrats in Washington.

Among those attending the afternoon-long event at the Omni Shoreham hotel were major Texas donor Ben Barnes, Victoria Hopper, a Dem activist married to Dennis, and Edwards finance guru Fred Baron.

Two big-name liberals seen at the gathering: Sen. Ted Kennedy and ex-NARAL pres. Kate Michelman.

The retreat allowed staff for Edwards's PAC, the One America Committee, to update these Dems on its activities and to explain its unique way of helping other candidates. Edwards has not asked his '03 donors to pony up, and his PAC doesn't contribute to candidates. Instead, Edwards spends time raising money to benefit candidates directly. He's paid close attention to local and municipal parties and state legislative races across the country.

Edwards was peppered with questions about a presidential bid. According to one participant, Edwards answered that he is "seriously considering" one, provided wife Elizabeth Edwards remains healthy.

The event, held two days before his major poverty speech, is part of a concerted effort to remind party influentials that Edwards remains a potent force. [MARC AMBINDER]

A post by the author of an unofficial Rudy Giuliani blog criticizes The Hotline for being too down on the ex-mayor's prospects for winning over the Republcan base and also for being "in the tank" for Sen. John McCain.

We like the back-and-forth, but just as soon as we finished reading the post, we noticed the Google Ads on the site. Check them out for yourself.

Four months out, there's a lot we don't know, writes John Mercurio, about the races and issues that will decide the '06 midterms.

We learned this week how one hot-button storyline (immigration reform) will play out this year: It won't. Republicans are now pushing for midsummer hearings, likely pushing a vote off until after November and shifting the debate from Capitol Hill onto the '06 campaign trail. Meanwhile, a jury this week delivered its first verdict (guilty) in a trial related to Jack Abramoff, promising to revive Democrats' charge that the GOP has fostered a "culture of corruption" in Washington. Even more than it did in '02 and '04, Iraq will dominate this year's campaign. All of which reminds me of how many big stories remain untold, and how little we really know about how the playing field will look come November.

Continue reading Politiscope.

If GOPers can bash Dems for raising money in Hollywood...

As baseball season gets underway, cable plays ball on the Iraq issue. But first, CNN was all about its big get (no, not Angelina Jolie):

CNN's John King sat down with VP Cheney.

Cheney, on the Dem proposals on Iraq: "You can call it a withdrawal, you can call it redeployment, whatever you want to call it. Basically, it, in effect, validates the terrorist strategy. You got to remember that the Osama bin Laden types, the al Qaeda type, the Zarqawi types that have been active in Iraq are betting that ultimately they can break the United States' will. There's no way they can defeat us militarily. Their whole strategy, if you look at what bin Laden's been saying for 10 years, is they believe they can in fact force us to quit, that ultimately we'll get tired of the fight, that we don't have the stomach for a long, tough battle and that we'll pack it in and go home. If we were to do that, it would be devastating from the standpoint of the global war on terror."

Asked if he wishes he could take back some of his statements on Iraq: "No, I think that in fact we're making very significant progress. There's no doubt in my mind that we're going to win. We will prevail in Iraq. We will prevail in Afghanistan. And I think the evidence is there for anybody who wants to look at it."

On the Scooter Libby case: "I am not going to comment on the case. I may be called as a witness. Scooter Libby, obviously, one of the finest men I've ever known, he's entitled to the presumption of innocence. And I have not made any comments on the case up until now, and I won't."

On himself: "I suppose, sometimes, people look at my demeanor and say, well, he's the Darth Vader of the administration. I guess the other thing that's working here ... is, I'm not running for anything. My career will end, politically, with this administration. I have the freedom and the luxury, as does the president, of doing what we think is right for the country. And the advice I give and the positions I take on issues are based upon that fundamental proposition."

Asked if he has a favorite for '08: "Republican. ... I won't go beyond that. We may get involved eventually, but, for now, there are a lot of great candidates thinking about it, and I think it's going to be a wide-open race. And I think it's very healthy" ("Situation Room," 6/22).

A NO VOTE IS NEWS

While there was a lot of talk last on the arrests in Miami, there was also plenty of discussion on the Senate votes on Iraq:

CNN's Bash: "The White House is working to keep anxious Republicans from turning against the war and, by extension, turning against President Bush. The fact that only one moderate Republican voted for a Democratic Iraq proposal shows that, at least for now, it appears that White House effort is working" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 6/22).

MSNBC's Shuster: "More than two out of every three Democrats joined the Republicans, not a good showing for John Kerry" ("Hardball," 6/22).

House Maj. Leader John Boehner, on the GOP position on Iraq: "Let's make sure that people understand that this is a very important war that is helping to protect us here at home. And that we have no choice but to win it. As difficult as it is" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/22).

Newsweek's Alter, on GOP strategy: "They actually have a strategy that seems to be fairly effective so far, if the Democrats are dumb enough to fall for it, which is to try to scare the Democrats into stopping talking about Iraq by accusing Democrats of wanting to cut and run. ... What's really interesting is, it may even work. The Democrats might be so inept that they get pulled into that briar patch" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 6/22).

MEMORIES, IN THE CORNER OF OUR MIND

And Connie Chung stopped by "Countdown" to discuss her singing episode. Chung: "I've never gone on TV and dressed like that, but I've done these songs for many, many years."

Asked with all the ratings and attention she got, why she didn't sing on the first show: "I just didn't have a good sense."

On why she came on "Countdown": "Because the executive producer of your show, Izzy Povich is our niece. And she's married to Andrew Povich who is our nephew, and that's the only reason. She's family" (MSNBC, 6/22). [EMILY GOODIN]

A new survey by the Bureau of Gov't Research Services at RI College shows that, should more than 50% of the primary electorate be made up of GOPers, Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) is in danger of losing his seat to Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey (R). When a sample of GOPers is weighted at 60% GOP to 40% Independent, Laffey leads, 39% to 36%. But when the sample is made up of an even split between GOPers and indies, Chafee pulls it out by the skin of his teeth, 39% to 38%.

As we noted earlier this week, the Chafee camp's effort to convince Dems to switch their party affiliation to independent -- and thus be eligible to vote in the GOP primary -- may have paid off, as 14,500 Dems did, in fact, switch and become indies. In a state in which turnout for a GOP primary will likely be less than 45,000, those Dems -- more likely to vote for Chafee -- could save the race for him. In the same survey, 25% of RIers said they planned to vote in the GOP primary.

We'd sure like to see the cross-tabs on that question. Just how many of those were Dems? [REID WILSON]

The CO Supreme Court refused to hear CO GOV candidate Marc Holtzman's (R) appeal today. Holtzman had promised to withdraw from the race if the court declined to take his case, and his spokesperson, Jesse Mallory, confirmed to the AP that the ex-Univ of Denver president would in end his bid. Mallory: "It's over, man."

With Holtzman gone, Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-07) and the CO GOP can finally focus their attention on ex-Denver DA/Dem nominee Bill Ritter (D) -- who has been running unopposed (and enjoying the GOP split) for months.

As part of his "Two Americas" farewell tour, a still-boyish-looking John Edwards spoke to the Press Club today. In a nutshell, the speech called to eliminate poverty in the next 30 years. While the '04 stump speech was gone for the most part, some Edwards-isms remain the same: He's still the son of a millworker (three mentions), America needs leadership, not politicians (too many mentions to count) and overall, it's time to cure poverty.

Here are the juicy parts, most of which are from the post-speech Q and A:
--Edwards is not too happy with Democrats these days: "Quit worrying about consultants, yesterdays poll...that's not leading, that's following." And more Edwards: "I do not believe in a party based on incrementalism, half-measures, and positions based on yesterday's polls." The Edwards solution for Dems to prove their leadership: "There is no better opportunity to make this clear than the enormous challenge of helping 27 million Americans who live in poverty."
--He's for withdrawing troops from Iraq (about 40,000 of them) so the Iraqi government can learn to govern themselves. He said American presence was "fueling the insurgency," not improving it. He'd also like to see all the troops out of Iraq within 12 to 18 months. And by the way, he didn't mention John Kerry in his answer.
--When asked by an attendee about the cost, Edwards said his "30 Year Contract" will set the U.S. back $15 to $20 Billion ("closer to $20B"). He suggesting coming up with the money by rolling back Bush's tax cuts and by keeping the estate/death tax around.
-- He's less than happy that Kennedy's minimum wage bill failed in the Senate yesterday. [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ].

As we wrote earlier, the DNC's rules and bylaws cmte has approved a measure adding one post-IA caucus and one post-NH primary to the nomination calendar.

Four states have applied for the caucus date and seven have applied for the primary date.

Member Tina Flournoy, who is a close adviser to party chairman Howard Dean, proposed the motion that ultimately passed. She said she recognized that a potential downside would be greater state frontloading, but said her proposal tried to “honor the place” of IA and NH in the nominating process.

MI Dem chair Mark Brewer objected to the proposal. “I frankly don’t see how we can satisfy…[racial, geograhpical, economic diversity] by simply restricting ourselves to two states. I don’t think we’ll achieve the goals this reform was intended," he said.

NH Dem chair Kathy Sullivan worried that, “even with limiting those two states we’ll be crunching four events into…18 days." Presidential candidates would have an incentive to pick and choose some of the states rather than to compete in all of them.

Sullivan said she preferred a broader, regional primary approach.

The next meeting will be in D.C. on 6/22-23 at the Capital Hilton.

In August, the committee will recommend which states get to hold the new contests. One will probably be in the West; another, in the South. CO and NV are considered the best bets for the Western event -- likely the caucus -- and South Carolina and Alabama are favorites to be given the post-NH primary.

The RBC's suggestions will be forwarded to the full DNC membership for final approval. [JUSTIN MILLER]

It is striking that in unveiling his “Working Society" today John Edwards would cite JFK but not the man who last sought to focus the nation’s attention on eradicating poverty – LBJ.

42 years ago last month Johnson – with the help of ace speechwriter/Doris Kearns husband-in-waiting Dick Goodwin – proposed his own solution to ensure America fulfilled its promise of being a land of “abundance and liberty for all.” A place, Johnson said, that was not merely a “rich” and “powerful” society, but a “Great Society.”

Challenging the graduating seniors at the Univ of Michigan and the nation, Johnson acknowledged that “there are those timid souls who say this battle cannot be won,” but, continuing in language that a latter-day Vermont governor would surely appreciate, “We have the power to shape the civilization that we want. But we need your will, your labor, your hearts, if we are to build that kind of society."

Or as Edwards now puts its: “We do not have to posture or to accept mediocrity or compromise our values. We can decide to be great, we can address great problems, we can see great possibilities.”

One guess: the Edwards team doesn't want to be linked with the big government bugaboo that LBJ's Great Society has come to represent. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

The composition of the Democratic nomination calendar could change yet again.

A member of the party's rules and bylaws committee, Tina Flournoy, proposed on a conference call this afternoon to add one caucus and one primary to the window before delegate selection official begins.

That would mean, in practice, that a caucus would follow Iowa but precede New Hampshire, and that a primary would follow New Hampshire but precede the beginning of the official season on 2/5.

Moments ago, the committee voted to approve the proposal. There were several "nay" votes and SC member Don Fowler abstained.

We'll have a full report shortly.

MoGoCo exec Doug Duncan will withdraw from the MD GOV race because he was diagnosed with clinical depression.

As the AP notes: "It will radically alter the course of the gubernatorial contest. [Baltimore Mayor Martin] O'Malley will no longer have to spend time and money to counter the challenge from Duncan, who had trailed the mayor in early polls but seemed to be making some headway with a steady attack on the mayor's record in Baltimore."

The Washington Post says Duncan "personally broke the news to O'Malley, a source close to the O'Malley campaign said. At 12:05 p.m. today, aides to O'Malley pulled him out of Mass to take a call from Duncan, the source said. O'Malley urged him to get well and invited Duncan to get together with him soon. 'They want him to have a major role,' the source said."

Suddenly, the media has only one meaninful primary to cover: the crowded Democratic Senate contest. The beneficiary there of the increased attention will probably be ex-NAACP pres. Kweisi Mfume. Rep. Ben Cardin may have to engage earlier than he anticipated.

The announcement is somewhat sudden; he's just completed a week of successful fundraisers.

on lobbying, Jack Abramoff and Indian gaming.

The Table of Names includes Ralph Reed.

It does not include Bob Ney or Conrad Burns.

The Hotline has learned that Montgomery, Co. exec Doug Duncan will drop out of the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Maryland today, citing health reasons.

We'll have more information later in the day.

That's right, 52% of Americans believe the U.S. ought to set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. This comes on the heels of last week's NBC/WSJ poll showing that 54% of Americans are more likely to vote for a candidate who favors pulling troops out of Iraq within a year.

So why aren't Dems getting the message? The party remains disorganized and disjointed on its Iraq message, and today will argue over two separate measures aimed at scaling back troop involvement in Iraq. And, as Chuck Todd argues, the factions within the party are another reason why Dems are not yet ready to leave.

Here's our question: What happened to Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE)? If he wants to distinguish himself from the GOP field, isn't calling for a pullout and a timetable a great way to separate himself from the pack? [REID WILSON]

At the end of the “Evening News” last night, CBS aired a commercial featuring Bob Schieffer in the news room, welcoming Katie Couric to the network. The ad also shows footage of Couric sitting at a laptop, talking on the phone, writing on a note pad – all while wearing a black suit and looking serious.

Schieffer’s dialogue: “Journalism is a team sport and I’ve known Katie Couric since she broke into journalism and she’s going to be a great edition to the CBS ‘Evening News’ team. She’s tough, she’s fair, she’s a straight shooter. I’m headed back to Washington this fall and I want to welcome Katie to our team. She’ll be terrific. Just watch.”

The ad ended with “Coming in September: CBS Evening News with Katie Couric.”

This is the first time we’ve noticed this ad, which also happened to be the day Dan Rather was let go from the network. [EMILY GOODIN]

Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), evolving his pitch ahead of an anticipated presidential run in 2008, will propose to cut poverty by a third in 10 years, eliminate it in 30, and put in its place a "Working Society " where Americans are rewarded for hard work with a livable safety net of health and welfare incentives.

Edwards advisers describe the speech as a "major policy address," which means they want the national political media and activist Democrats to pay attention to it.

Notably, the speech advances beyond Edwards's "Two Americas" concept. One aide described that phrase as his identification of the problem -- a society where the wealthy are rewarded and the poor are ignored. This speech inaugurates a new phase -- solutions -- and a new phrase -- a "Working Society." (Well, it's not entirely new.)

A copy of his speech distributed to reporters and embragoed until this morning shows that Edwards proposes to "radically overhaul" the Dept. of Housing and Urban Development; to create 1 million "stepping stone" jobs over the next five years, to raise the minimum wage, and to refocus the American education system.

“I propose a great national goal, because Americans believe in achieving great things," Edwards plans to say. "Like JFK challenging America to land a man on the moon, a national goal of eradicating poverty will sharpen our focus, marshal our resources and at the end of the day, bring out our best."

“Besides, we need a goal. America will never get close to eliminating poverty until we set our sights and commit to try."

After his '04 loss, Edwards returned to North Carolina to tend to his ailing wife, Elizabeth. He soon opened the Center for Poverty, Work and Opportunity at UNC Chapell Hill. He's traveled to eight states considering a minimum wage boost, pressured North Carolina's legislature to pass one and spent weeks in New Orleans with volunteers helping Katrina recovery. Even when he travels to raise money for Democrats, he often meets privately with poor families.

Check out our latest
White House '08 Rankings

His speech today challenges conservatives:

“If conservatives really believed in markets, they'd join us in a more radical and more sensible solution: creating 1 million more housing vouchers for working families over the next five years. Done right, vouchers can enable people to vote with their feet to demand safe communities with good schools. We can help pay for this by cutting back HUD’s role in managing public housing, which it doesn’t do very well and often sticks working families in bad neighborhoods."

He challenges Dems:

“I believe in a Democratic Party that fights for those who have no voice: the forgotten middle class, the poor, those who have labored a lifetime, and all those who speak the truth against overwhelming public opinion And I believe in a Party willing to take stances that are right, whether or not they are popular. This is the tradition of America, fighting for what is right regardless of the odds, regardless of the power of those on the other side. It is what the Democratic Party I believe in is all about. We do not have to posture or to accept mediocrity or compromise our values. We can decide to be great, we can address great problems, we can see great possibilities. [MARC AMBINDER]

Cable's in repeats and Iraq was repeatedly the topic on cable last night:

FNC's Garrett, on the Iraq debate: "Congressional Republicans have defied expectations and rallied around a beleaguered White House. ... The key to GOP unity, democratic disunity" ("Special Report," 6/21).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): "There has been this heated debate about Iraq for a long time now and a lot of language used on both sides that I just don't think helps the American people understand our viewpoints. I think that we lose sight of what we should be doing for the American people. But there should be passion. And if they want to be passionate that way, that's their privilege to do so. I prefer not to do so and I think that's my right to do so and I do respect those who disagree" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/21).

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), on Kerry's proposal: "John is frustrated as can be. A lot of people are, and John has, I guess, reached the conclusion that they're never going to get it right, so we might as well set a timetable and get out" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/21).

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), asked if it hurts the Dems to not be united on Iraq: "We're unified on the most essential ingredient, which is the failure of this administration, their lack of honesty with the American people about what is really happening in Iraq. We're unified about the fact that you need to begin redeployment of American forces now. I think there is a unity in moving in a new direction" ("AC 360," CNN, 6/21).

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), on Kerry: "I don't know how he says that there is not a cut-and-run, when they are setting deadlines for the redeployment of troops, and they're hard deadlines" ("AC 360," CNN, 6/21).

Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) held a presser late yesterday stating declassified documents showed chemical weapons in Iraq. Asked if he revealed that info because he's in a tight SEN race, Santorum: "That's absolutely unfair. We're not beating our chests today. ... This is one more piece of the puzzle which creates an overwhelming case about how dangerous this regime was" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 6/21).

LADIES NIGHT

The nine women Dem Sens. appeared on "LKL" last night:

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), on the Iraq debate: "Democrats are doing the country a great service by having this debate. It's the Republicans who are all blindly following the president and refusing to ask questions, even conducting the most minimal kind of congressional oversight."

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), on WH '08: "Any one of these women could be on the ticket. President, vice president, I'm not kidding. They could."

Asked who's seen Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth," HRC: "I thought it was terrific. And you know, Al for years has been sounding the alarm on global climate change. And no one can sit through that movie and not be convinced that time is running out for us to take the action we need to control the emissions of carbon dioxide into the air. And that goes right along with what we're trying to do in energy. It goes hand in hand. So I think he's done a great service, not just to our country, but the world."

CNN's L. King: "Would you like him to run again?"

HRC: "You're good, Larry."

More HRC: "All roads lead to one question. I have a question for you. When the FBI director is here tomorrow, ask him if he agrees with cutting the homeland security money to New York City. Just ask him" (CNN, 6/21). [EMILY GOODIN]

A memo circulated to Senate Democrats today urges them not to buy into the caricature that Republicans are trying to create of the Democratic Party. (Ken Mehlman, the RNC chair, says Dems have three positions on Iraq, and wouldn't you know, they're "cut and walk," "cut and run," and "cut and jog.")

The emerging Democratic response: What's YOUR plan?

In the memo, pollster Geoff Garin writes:

"In this context, the Republican attack that Democrats differ among themselves about how best to change our course in Iraq will be irrelevant. By far the more important dynamic -- reinforced by the current congressional debate -- will be that in states and districts nationwide, voters will face a choice between a Republican who is aligned with President Bush on Iraq and identified with more of the same, and a Democrat who supports an independent approach and new direction for resolving what most Americans think of as a wasteful and poorly planned mess."

Trouble is -- Dems can't agree on an independent approach (although most are cohering around a position that involves timeslines and benchmarks) and then proceed to tell the media that their internal meetings debating said approaches are contentious. That feeds the meme that Democrats are in disarray. Which weakens their ability to project confidence.

Of course, it's easy for Republicans to be united around the "Bush War" when they're in Washington. But what happens when they return to their districts to ask voters to re-elect them?

We'd bet that more than a few will endorse a plan that sounds eerily similar to Reed-Levin.

Turns out... there's allegedly a strategy behind the (relative) silence of the liberal blogosphere about the Kis/Armstrong "controversy" that conservative websites are drooling over.

TNR obtained a missive Kos sent earlier this week to "Townhouse," a private email list comprising elite liberal bloggers, including Jane Hamsher, Matt Stoller, and Christy Hardin Smith. And what was Kos's message to this group that secretly plots strategy in the digital equivalent of a smoke-filled backroom? Stay mum!

What we wouldn't give for another Kos v. TNR grudge match: more than a few dollars.

(Here's something that just occured to one of us: anybody else notice that after being noticably absent from YearlyKos, HRC (and Bill) made a point of stopping by ex-TNR editor/Netroots bete noire Peter Beinart's book party the very next night in Washington.)

Update:

Without he-said, she-said, the story still spirals. It tops Memeorandum at this writing. (But no MSM pick up... unless we're the MSM.)

Who's the leaker?
Channeling Walter Lippmann...in defense of Jerome
-- in defense of Markos
-- in defense of Markos's humanity
-- not in defense
-- not in defense
-- all those liberal sites look alike; a non-defender of Kos mistakes Slate for TNR
-- an update to Zengerle's original post

Check out the latest edition of the Hotline's
Blogometer

TX Dems are fast becoming Tom DeLay's biggest advocates. They're trying to prevent -- or at least delay -- the GOP's selection of a replacement candidate on the 11/06 ballot. They won a temporary restraining order in (Dem-heavy) Travis County, and a federal hearing is scheduled for 6/26.

Experts say the lawsuit isn't likely to be upheld. And election cases tend to be resolved quickly, given the stakes. But the efforts will impact the GOP nominee's campaign schedule, fundraising and ability to raise name ID. Even if the case is thrown out next week, the nomination process will extend into mid-July.

Ex-Rep. Nick Lampson (D), who has at least $1.76M CoH, stands to benefit from the holdup. His fundraising has slowed since DeLay's withdrawal, but at the end of the 1stQ he still led all challengers in CoH. With a compressed time frame, the eventual GOP nominee may not be able to match Lampson financially. Will it matter in such a heavily GOP CD? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Maybe it's only a press release sent to members of the Washington press corps.... but we were somewhat taken aback when the following statement crossed into our inboxes. It's a sign that Democrats might actually be willing to tear up the Iraq script that Karl Rove has written for them and... fight back with confidence and verve?

No Plan, No End, Same Slogan

There they go again. On the Senate floor, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison just offered a slogan – “cut and run” -- instead of a solution. It’s time to call Republicans on their games. Today, the Senate Democratic Communications Center will shine the light on Republican rubberstamping. Americans have had enough of Bush Republicans’ no plan, no end. We need to hear more than Senator Hutchinson saying, “I urge my colleagues to think of the consequences of cutting and running from a fight that is much bigger than the stabilization of Iraq.” With the proposal put forward by Senators Levin and Reed, Democrats offer a plan for the Iraqis to take greater responsibility for their own security and future.

Where’s their plan?

Now -- if they can only get the message discipline part of the equation down then maybe you'll see an anonymous Dem quoted saying that his party "grew a pair."

Bonus: the Dems also sent out a blank word document entitled "The Bush Republican Plan On Iraq"

Bonus II: Here's what the Hotline had to say in today's Spotlight:

One can't help but watch Cong. Dems debate Iraq and recall Jon Lovitz's line playing Mike Dukakis: "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy."
-- Voters want to embrace an Iraq stance other than the GOP's, but still the Dems can't win.
-- Of course, Dems may simply be losing the media battle, not the voter war. Last week's NBC/WSJ poll showed a maj. of voters (including a maj. of all indies) saying they're "more likely" to support a cong. candidate who wants to withdraw troops in 12 months.
-- The problem, like Lovitz (er Dukakis) in '88: Dems on Iraq are showing too much caution and not enough confidence. The WH and the GOP are re-running the '04 message: "You may not agree with me all the time, but you know where I stand."
-- This week, Dems are taking the GOP bait and trying to find "common ground" on Iraq, which is caution delivered with very little confidence. That makes the GOP's Iraq straw man work, at least in the media. As for the voters? Polls don't show them as patient as they were in '04. But what if the most frustrated stay home?

Sometimes, a Hotline story slips through the ampersam-mad publication system. Fortunately, On Call is here to pick it up.

Herewith: New Jersey.

By the way, if you'd like to subscribe to the Hotline, please check out our offerings.

When In New Jersey, Do As The Romans Do?

Kean "had his back covered by an unlikely ally" 6/20 -- state Senate Pres./ex-Gov. Richard Codey (D). Kean had agreed to a debate with Menendez 6/26 at 8pm, but worried it would conflict with the day's legislative session. Upon receiving notice of his withdrawal from the debate, Menendez's campaign "quickly labeled him a 'coward'" (Delli Santi, AP, 6/20).

Codey, in a letter to Kean: "It has been brought to my attention that you have voiced significant concerns over a potential scheduling conflict" on 6/26. "Given the fact that NJN studios is within walking distance of the State House and I do not anticipate the Senate session extending well into the evening, I am more than willing to suspend any and all votes pertaining to the budget should they arise while you're attending the debate (release, 6/20).

Codey, asked about the letter: "It would say, 'Don't worry, Tommy. We're going to take care of you, buddy. [If the session ran late], either we will recess or just [chitchat] and make believe we're the Roman Senate. He won't miss any votes." Kean campaign press sec. Jill Hazelbaker: "If Sen. Codey guarantees that he will not miss votes, the debate's on" (Delli Santi, AP, 6/20). The two candidates are scheduled for a debate 6/25 in NYC, and "thanks to Codey, they are still scheduled to meet again" 6/26 (Burton, Philadelphia Inquirer, 6/21).

In lieu of last week's YearlyKos netroots buzzfest, it might be useful to see which candidates actually get the most traffic on their Web sites. According to data from an Alexa.com, on which users can track and compare web site traffic, Clark and Kerry come out on top in the last three months out of all the potential '08 presidential candidates:

Site -- Internet Ranking
Clark's WesPAC -- 71,158
JohnKerry.com -- 76,436
Edwards' OneAmericaCommittee.com -- 211,756
Gingrich's Newt.org -- 229,197
blog.electromneyin2008.com -- 238,200
HillaryClinton.com (re-election site) -- 253,280
Frist's VolPAC -- 255,254

Alright, so none of the sites are in the Stratosphere -- so to speak. But for perspective, Whitehouse.gov is ranked 2,848 and Wonkette.com comes in at 8,031. Nevertheless it shows Gen. Wesley Clark has kept up on a strong internet presence since '04. Sort of like the DraftClark.com movement never died, but has actually brought in more supporters via the internet. Clark's internet team attributes their high traffic -- including a particularly large increase since the beginning of the year -- to the General's own participation on the site including chats, posting on the blog and podcasting. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

We expect lots of contrast ads...

From the campaign of Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA): "The Santorum 2006 campaign announced today that it will begin airing television advertisements in every Pennsylvania media market beginning Friday, June 23. The campaign will air television ads continuously between Friday and Election Day."

What the Republicans have to fear going into the midterms is the casual voter, aka "independents." And the midterm elections are where the power of these casual voters are most evident. A successful candidate running in a non-presidential year is the one that recruits the most casual voters to his or her side. In this case, the Republicans are banking on depressing casual Democratic voters to the point that they won't vote, or that they believe their vote in 2006 won't matter, because the party they think they side with seems disorganized or lacking a voice.

2006 Race Rankings Democrats have a new number two and Kerry advances a spot in our '08 race rankings. Plus:   Senate races · Governor races · House races

Ya criticize your governor, and his staff apparently blocks government computers from accessing your website.

The Michigan Proxy War continues.

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC has sent more than $140K to state and local candidates and party committees in Michigan since the beginning of the year, and his generosity has piqued the interest of rivals, especially MA Gov. Mitt Romney.

Both Romney and McCain see Michigan as must-win state; McCain, who won the state in 2000, has many allies (and not-so allies). Romney, whose father was a two-term MI governor, may base his presidential campaign in Oakland County, where he grew up. (Maybe -- don't hold us to this prediction.)

Battle lines have hardened already. There are McCainiacs and Romneyites; RNC committeeman Chuck Yob is known (but not confirmed) as a McCain guy; former ambassador Ron Weiser is his top fundraiser in the state. A superstar on Romney's team is John Rakolta president of the wonderfully named Walbridge Aldinger, one of the largest construction companies in the Midwest. Michigan House Speaker Craig DeRoche is said to be a Romney fan, too. (Chris Cillizza has more about staff.)

This weekend, as the state committee met in Lansing, allies of Romney distributed a letter detailing his comittment to help Republicans win in races across the state.

Writes Romney: "Now more than ever we need fight for Republican principles of free enterprise, fair and free trade, accountability in education, personal responsibility, tolerance, strong families and a national defense second to none." He notes his PAC has donated "nearly $70,000" to candidates and organizations in Michigan. He promises to "double that effort to ensure that Republicans succeed at all levels."

The letter tips a hat to Dick DeVos, Terri Lynn Land and Attorney General Mike Cox. It winks at Romney's own record in Massachusetts: "And given my experience with activist judges, you can be sure that I am committed to a conservative majority on the Michigan Supreme Court."

He ends the letter by promising to "be in Michigan on a regular basis" between now and the election.

(Note: an early version of this post suggested that Romney won the favor of James Nicholson, the CEO of PVS Chemicals and one of the top financial givers in Michigan -- but Nicholson has also given money to McCain.) [MARC AMBINDER]

Later this morning. Sen. Evan Bayh's All America PAC will announce an interesting new hire.

The big news is that Kory Mitchell, a Dem fundraiser with extensive experience in Florida and the Midwest, will become the full time finance director. Nancy Jacobson, Bayh's finance architect, will become a "senior adviser" to the PAC and direct her focus to long-term strategy and managing relationships with donors.

The PAC had about $1M on hand at the end of the first quarter. About three-fourths of every dollar Bayh raises is kept in his Senate campaign account which can easily be transferred to a presidential exploratory committee.

By the Bayh... Mitchell was born in Iowa.

Why bother to report from Michigan if the chairman of the Republican party, in the interest of openness and good politics, blogs about almost everything a political junkie would want to know?

BTW: in case you missed it...Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) has won the favor of the Speaker of Michigan's House, Craig DeRoche. Some GOPers expect him to join Romney's Commonwealth PAC as a senior adviser. A Romney spokesperson declined to comment.

There was basketball, there was Angelina Jolie, but there was also a lot of talk about John Kerry's proposal to withdraw troops from Iraq by the end of the year:

FNC's Garrett: "The story about Democratic divisions is well known. The more interesting thing about Senate Democrats is the consensus position they'll present to the Senate tomorrow doesn't provide for an exit date at all" ("Special Report," 6/20).

CNN's Bash: "There has been no shortage of drama here on Capitol Hill over this issue" ("Situation Room," 6/20).

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), on Kerry's proposal: "I strongly disagree with John. I strongly disagree with anybody who thinks you should set an end date, irrespective of anything else. So, that's why I will vote against that. But I agree with John more than I do with the president, who says: Look, Iraq, we trust you. Keep things going as they are. We have no new suggestions for you. You're united. We're going to keep our forces there as long as you need them. If you gave me those two choices, John's is a better choice. At least he gets us out of what's going to be a civil war, if they don't act" ("PZ Now," CNN, 6/20).

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "I'm glad we have a chance to debate the different approaches that we should consider. But most of us, I think all of us on the Democratic side of the aisle, agree that we need a better plan than we've heard from the president" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/20).

Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI): "There's a serious debate going on within the Democratic caucus, and that's, I think, a function of the seriousness of the problem we face. It's hard to determine precisely the most efficient course in Iraq. So I'm not surprised at the debate" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 6/20).

RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, on the Dems and Iraq: "There's a debate going on within the Democratic Party. Some are saying we need to cut and run, others are saying we need to cut and jog, and still others are saying we need to cut and walk" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/20). [EMILY GOODIN]

It's the 20th of the month, which means it's time for a check-up of national campaign committee finances.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $4.3 million and spent nearly the same, ending the month with $18 million on hand. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee took in approximately $4.7 million. (The NRSC outperformed the DSCC during the first two months of the year; the DSCC outraised the NRSC from March through May.)

Note that the NRSC has actually outraised the DSCC in '06 -- $22.3M to $20.5M.

But the DSCC has $15M more on hand -- almost a two-to-one advantage over the GOP. (The exact figures: $33.5M for the Dems and $18.26M for the GOPers.)That CoH padding is by far the more important and politically meaningful number. (Says DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer: "Our fundraising success reflects a deep desire for change and recognition that the best way to get things back on track is by electing more Democrats to the Senate.")

The NRSC receipts do not include some of the approx. $12M earmarked from last night's President's Dinner, although it's not clear what percentage of those checks were solicited well in advance of the event. We'll find out in July how those numbers affect the bottom line.

The DNC took in $5M and had $10.3M on hand. It's raised $28M for the year. The RNC went gangbusters, as usual, raising $7.5 million in May and ending the quarter with more than $43 million on hand.

Last month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee managed to reach financial parity with the National Republican Congressional Committee. Both spend heavily on the special election in CA's 50th district.

The DCCC raised $5.5M in May; they have $24.5M on hand. The NRCC raised $5.6M in May and ended the month with $21.9M in the bank. (Note: Last night's presidential dinner took in $15M for the NRCC. And the same caveat applies: it's unclear what percentage of that gross is already reflected in the NRCC's figures.) The NRCC has no debt; the DCCC's debt status was not immediately available.

Two months ago, The Hotline crunched the federally-raised cash held in reserve by all the state parties and the six national party committees. We found that the GOP maintained about a $30M cushion. That number has probably narrowed a bit, but it still leaves the Republican Party in slightly better financial shape than the Democratic Party. [MARC AMBINDER]

Yesterday, we published a list of Iowa Republicans already signed up with potential presidential campaigns.

Here's a list of Iowa GOPers we expect to be fiercely courted by those running for president in 2008. Notice it's heavy on ex-BC04 staffers and well-populated by Jim Nussle's high campaign command.

Leg. house campaign dir. Tim Albrecht

Nussle comm. dir Maria Comella

Nussle pol. dir. Andrew Dorr

IA businessman John Gilliland

Ex-IA 72-Hour Task Force dir. Hans Gullickson

Nussle senior counsel/ex-Hastert aide Pete Jeffries

State Sen. Pres. Jeff Lamberti (recently appeared at fundraiser for Giuliani's Solutions America in NYC and at a
fundraiser with Pataki)

Ex-IA GOP chair Michael Mahaffey

GOP co-chair Leon Moseley

IA Fed. GOP Women Pres. Kathy Pearson

Nussle coalitions dir. Marlys Popma

IA State Rep/Speaker Christopher Rants

State Sen. Kitty Rehberg, liaison to social conservatives

BC04 IA chair David Roederer

Nussle mgr. Nick Ryan

IA Christian Alliance pres. Steve Scheffler

Current IA GOP exec. dir. Cullen Sheehan

BC04 regional pol. dir Karen Slifka

WH Pol. Dir. Sara Taylor

Rep. Chris Cannon (R-UT 03) may have gotten a late gift in his primary battle against businessman John Jacob. The candidates have been dueling for weeks over immigration, with Cannon drawing the most fire for his past support of guest worker legislation. Now the tables have turned. Jacob is accused of hiring immigrants without work permits. According to the charges, Jacob helped them set up a company to subcontract with his business.

The allegations are the latest salvos in a campaign that has gotten unusually personal. The anti-illegal immigration Team America PAC aired ads alleging Cannon supports amnesty. Meanwhile, Cannon is calling Jacob's backers "xenophobes." The election has ramifications for border security hardliners. If Jacob wins, will third-party groups continue to pour money into races against more moderate GOP incumbents and frontrunners? Or will a Cannon victory temper some of their enthusiasm? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

A small marvel of the enormous media attention played to the Abramoff/Cunningham corruption scandals is the degree to which local newspapers -- especially those serving communities represented by members of Congress on district-flattering committees -- are strengthening their investigative coverage and have adopted a come-hell-or-high-water fearlessness about challenging pillars of their community.

The latest example: The Press-Enterprise in Riverside, California.

It joins the San Bernadino Sun in creating a special section of its website to deal with Reps. Ken Calvert and Jerry Lewis.

Here's how our friend Justin Sayfie laid out the morning headlines for Florida chief financial officer Tom Gallagher, whose is locked in a contentious gubernatorial primary against AG Charlie Christ (R). Remarkable to us is how the sub rosa rumors attached to both candidates -- that bachelor Crist is "gay" and that party-boy Gallagher had an affair -- have actually surfaced and were promptly covered by the press in Florida. The winner today: Dem frontrunner Jim Davis, who, as far as we know, has never been the subject of juicy rumors and gets to watch both his opponents prove their negatives as they run to the right.

While Ben Bradlee and Jim Lehrer examined the state of modern journalism on PBS, cable put theory into practice.

Iraq was the big TV topic last night -- both VP Cheney's comments at the Nat'l Press Club and the debate in the Senate:

CNN's Bash: "Senate Democrats are trying to take advantage of what they call a major Republican election-year weakness: public frustration over Iraq" ("AC 360," 6/19).

FNC's Emanuel: "The vice president also defended his comment last year that the Iraqi insurgency was, quote, 'in its final throes.' The vice president said he was referring to the series of events when the Iraqis increasingly took over responsibility for their affairs" ("Special Report," 6/19).

HE USED TO BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, NOW HE'S ON CABLE

Al Gore made the TV rounds last night:

Gore, on VP Cheney standing by his last throes comment: "I hope he's right. I don't think many people believe he is right. And part of the problem is that, if somebody in a leadership position tries to defy the best evidence available from the intelligence community, from the experts, and create their own reality, and base policy on it, that can only happen for so long, because it sets up a collision with reality" ("AC 360," CNN, 6/19).

On his future political career, Gore: "The harshest consequences of the outcome of that race in 2000 has been for the millions of people who have been harmed by policies that I, at least, believe have been profoundly mistaken. But I do believe that the best service I may be able to render is to use my skills and experience, however much they may be, to try to change the political environment and to try to lift this issue of the climate crisis out of the political framework. I really think it ought to be seen as a moral issue, and not as a political issue" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 6/19).

DEAN AND MURTHA SHOULD HAVE THEIR OWN CABLE SHOW

DNC Chair Howard Dean also made the TV rounds:

On Iraq: "The bottom line here is not what the specifics of the plan are. The bottom line is the president doesn't have a plan and the Democrats believe that we should be heading in another direction, which is what the American people believe."

More: "I thought Jack Murtha, who's a 37-year-old decorated Marine, had the best retort. Karl Rove is sitting in his air conditioned office on his big fat you-know-what, and he's never served. George Bush has never served abroad. Dick Cheney's never served abroad."

On criticism he gets from Dems on how he handles party resources: "We can have our disagreements. I think those disagreements ought to be behind closed doors, and stay there. This is a party that needs to be pulled together. We have got less than five months before the election. We need to be on the same team in order to win" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/19).

More Dean, on Iraq: "The unified Democratic plan does call for something to do with Iraq, it calls for a transition now, it calls for a redeployment of our troops so we get them out of harm`s way while we're still able to respond to the terrorist threat" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/19).

MORE THAN YOU'VE EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT GEORGE ALLEN'S BIRTH

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) played "Hardball" last night:

Allen: "Senator John Kerry came in and supported my ultimate opponent, before he got nominated, he was there at his victory party and so Senator John Kerry and other Massachusetts liberals have a view that what we need -- and if you listen to him very closely -- is what they would like to see is a strategic plan for retreat. I think that Virginians and all Americans think that what we need to do is bring together the American people, our allies, as well as countries around Iraq."

On his IA visit: "They asked me way back in the winter if I would come and speak to the Iowa Federation Republican Women at their luncheon, at their convention. ... My mother and father were married in Sioux City, Iowa, so it was fun to be there and I also do keep my commitments."

And on the history of his birth: "Well during the gestation period, my father got his first head coaching job was at Morningside College in Sioux City where my mother met him. My mother came over from Tunisia and fell in love with my father, they got married. During the gestation period, my father got a job at Whittier College, the Poets, a fierce name for a team, and so that's where I was born. Of course my preference would have been my father got offered a job at the University of Virginia and I could have been born in Charlottesville like all my kids" (MSNBC, 6/19). [EMILY GOODIN]

The gubernatorial campaign of Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA) claims to have uncovered an instance of impolitic mimicry by opponent Chet Culver (D), IA's Sec/State.

On Friday, Nussle released a statement about education; Culver had just won the endorsement of IA's 32K-strong teachers' union.

Here's how the AP, in its daily story about the campaign, covered Nussle. The writethru crossed the wire at about 4:14 PM CT.

In a statement issued Friday, Nussle said he'll continue to push for raising teacher pay. ''My priority is to have Iowa set the standard for world class education and that starts by raising teacher pay above the national average,'' he said. ''As governor, I will work to ensure more reliable and more predictable funding for education so we have the best and brightest teachers in the classrooms teaching our children.''

The Nussle campaign noticed that the following appeared on Culver's site about 5:40 pm on Friday.

Chet Culver has been endorsed by the Iowa State Education Association. The union, represented by more than 32,000 members, chose Chet because he will fight for educators all over the state. "My priority is to have Iowa set the standard for world class education and that starts by raising teacher pay above the national average," he said. "As governor, I will work to ensure more reliable and more predictable funding for education so we have the best and brightest teachers in the classrooms teaching our children."

Needless to say, that statement is no longer on the site.

Our verdict: probably a copy-and-paste error by the Culver web team. But embarassing -- and distracting -- nonetheless.

In the first post-primary poll out of AL, we learn, courtesy of the Mobile Press-Register and the Univ. of S. AL, that Gov. Bob Riley (R) leads LG Lucy Baxley (D) 53%-25%. Not a huge surprise, right? Well, the fact that Riley's got 28% of the African-American vote is a surprise. He also earns 22% of the Dem vote to Baxley's 55%.

Those numbers are probably artificially high, however. Riley's been all over the airwaves, thanks to his primary battle with ex-AL Chief Justice Roy Moore (R), and he's had a lot more money to spend than Baxley. Once she gets on the air, her numbers will get a lot better -- especially among African Americans and Dems -- and she'll tighten the race.

Maybe an endorsement from ex-Gov. Don Siegelman (D) would help. [REID WILSON]

In case you missed it, DE Sen. Joe Biden told audiences oin NH over the weekend that, no ifs, ands or Dem butts, he's running for president.

To prove the point: barely two weeks from now, he'll return to New Hampshire for a Politics and Eggs breakfast in Bedford on 6/30.

Last week, we wrote about Sen. John McCain's gutsy but risky penchant for playing in party primaries. McCain opponents seized upon results in last Tuesday's South Carolina primary contests to claim that McCain-backed candidates did poorly.

True -- Rick Quinn (son of Richard Quinn) came in third in his bid to become the GOP's state treasurer nominee and Tom Herbkersman's SC House bid failed by about 10 points.

But McCain's overall primary record in South Carolina is quite healthy: of the 15 primary candidates given contributions by Straight Talk America, eleven won outright. In Alabama, 10 or 12 McCain-endorsed GOP primary candidates won.

Some of the primary contests were breezes, but others were stiff.

McCain endorsee Jim Carns, running for Jefferson City Commission, faced a 16-year incumbent named Gary White and won. Other McCain endorsees were incumbents who took on spirited challengers, like AL House Minority Leader Mike Hubbard.

In SC, incumbent/McCain endorsee Bill Cotty, a member of the SC House, survived a challenge from Shari Few, an opponent of teaching evolution as fact.

Interestingly, several McCain/STA endorsees faced opponents endorsed by the South Carolina Club For Growth; the challengers accused the incumbents of being RINOs. But Reps. Adam Taylor and Gene Pinson all escaped. Each received $1K from STA.

Both McCain and the Club endorsed victorious Rep.. Jeff Duncan .

Voters in SC's 8th house district chose Don Bowen, the Club-backed challenger to McCain-backed Becky Martin, the incumbent. As of this writing, McCain-backed incumbent Ralph Davenport defeated challenger Steve Parker for the SC-37 House seat in Spartanburg Co. The final result is subject to a state-order recount.

Bottom line: McCain plays aggressively in primaries; he loses in some but wins in more. [MARC AMBINDER]

The New Democratic Network released its schedule for the 2006 annual meeting on Thursday, and three possible WH ‘08ers are on tap. Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) addresses the conference’s opening lunch 6/22. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) speaks at 9am on 6/23. And NDN chair/IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) speaks alongside NDN Pres. Simon Rosenberg later that morning.

Interestingly, Warner will be introduced by NDN PAC chair/Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA). Smith was the first Rep. to endorse Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) in the primaries in ’04, and Smith’s former communications director recently left for a position with Warner’s Forward Together PAC.

We've noticed that Republican strategists and activists in Iowa are signing up with potential presidential candidates far more quickly that expected -- and at a much faster clip that Democrats. That's not entirely a surprise -- Hillary Clinton has frozen much of the field; the rest remains loyal to John Edwards or refuses to make committments out of loyalty to Tom Vilsack.

Republicans Mitt Romney and John McCain have signed up the most IA-connected heavy hitters to date; George Pataki's team is strong, too.

Here's a roster:

Sen. George Allen (R-VA): no team yet; ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie will be in IA with Allen this weekend and strategist Chris LaCivita is associated with the IA-heavy DCI Group.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS): is very close with Chuck Hurley, pres of the Iowa Family Policy Ctr.

Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN): no team yet

Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): no team yet

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani: no team yet;

Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR): BC'00 IA press sec/consultant Eric Woolson

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): ex-IDP chair/State Sen. Chuck Larson and Terry Nelson, BC04 pol. dir.

Gov. George Pataki (R-NY): State Sen. Stew Iverson, Ed Failor, Jr., Diane Crookham-Johnson, Loras Schulte*** and
JoEllen Hill. Schutle insists he hasn't endorsed Pataki's 08 bid yet.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA): Doug Gross, BC04 Iowa chair/ex-gov candidate; fundraiser is Dave Kochel; ex-IA GOP exec. dir. Gentry Collins is now at the RGA. 50 others, too. See the post below.

That's how this story will play, most likely.

George Jepsen, the immediate past chairman of the Connecticut Democratic Party and the former state Senate majority leader, plans to endorse Ned Lamont's Senate bid today.

Jepsen was the Dems' LG nominee in '02 and has a fairly sizable following among CT Dems. Jepsen is now a partner at a fancy Hartford law firm, Cowdery, Ecker and Murphy.

BTW: Thanks to CT political columnist Kevin F. Rennie for the tip.

A Denver judge ruled that would-be GOP GOV candidate Marc Holtzman had NOT, in fact, turned in the requisite numbers of per-cong. district signatures to qualify for the ballot. On Friday, the same judge reinstated some signatures thrown out by the Secretary of State.

Rep. Bob Beauprez's campaign celebrated the news; Holtzman's lawyer said his client will appeal to the State Supreme Court.

The primary is in August; Beauprez won a spot by winning over a majority of state convention delegates. Holtzman refused to concede and tried to collect signatures to petition his way onto the ballot.

Meanwhile, Dem nominee Bill Ritter is an amused spectator. Dems consider CO a prime gubernatorial take-over opportunity.

Hat tip: The Note:

"HUNT: "Sir, We only have about 30 seconds left, let me switch subjects for one final question. You opposed the Iraq war in 2002, your running mate in 2000, Joe Lieberman, had a different view, he supported the war. He's running against an anti-war candidate now. Who are you for?"

GORE: "I am not involved. I typically do not get involved in Democratic primaries. Joe is my close friend, Joe & Hadassah are close to Tipper and me and it would be very difficult for me to ever oppose him. But I don't get involved in primaries typically. He's a great guy and he's right on a lot of other issues."

On Saturday, MA Gov. Mitt Romney announced a long list of Iowans who've agreed support his PAC's mission of "helping Republicans in 2006."

We haven't contacted them all, so we don't know if each person has agreed to support Romney's presidential bid.

However -- these folks are smart, and by and large, they know what it means to be affiliated with a candidate so early. The full list is after the jump.

Notable names include Polk. Co. activist Melissa Vander Plaats, Council Bluffs City councilman Matt Schultz, State Sens. Dave Mulder and Brad Zaun, and at least two county GOP chairs.

Doug Gross leads the team.

A blogswarm propelled a revolution in the leadership of the nation's largest protestant domination yesterday; delegates to the Southern Baptist Convention chose an outsider from South Carolina as their new president, rejecting the establishment candidacy of an Arkansas mega-church pastor who had sewn up the body's top endorsements. Here's why it matters to students of American politics. The Southern Baptist Convention remains the most influential organized religious body in the South. More than 16 million Americans identify as Southern Baptists.

The new president is Frank Page , pastor of the First Baptist Church of Taylors, S.C.

Page was drafted to run by SBC bloggers fed up by the SBC's establishment. The media says Page is "reform-minded," which is a word that smells like "liberal" to many outsiders. But Page has affirmed his belief in the inerrancy of the bible and the primacy of the Southern Baptist faith. What he'll reform, he says, is the operations of the SBC institution and its perception to outsiders that it's closed and intolerant. (He responded to a note from the Hotline with a simple sentence. "Please pray for me," he wrote.

There are several direct connections to American politics.

First, Page defeated Ronnie Floyd, who can't seem to appear in a newspaper article without the words "pastor of the biggest church in Arkansas" attached to it. Floyd is one of the most powerful preachers in the South. When Mike Huckabee, an unassuming minister ran for president of the SBC in AR,, associates of Floyd, his opponent, pegged him as too liberal for the state. Huckabee and Floyd are close, though, and have grown closer over the years. Huckabee, in an interview, said denominational politics "was way too much for me. They can be so much more brutal than regular ol' politics, he says.

This year, Floyd's national SBC presidential campaign was endorsed by the leading lights of the convention, including Paige Patterson, one of the original conservative reformers who yanked the SBC to the right (or, toward purity) in the late 70s and early 80s. Patterson is now the head of a venerable SBC seminary. One of the major issues: a complicated row over what's called the Cooperative Program, which helps to fund SBC ventures across the country. The split is sort of similar to the debate in the Democratic Party over Howard Dean's decision to spend money on state and local parties. Floyd was, at best, a medium-warm supporter of the Cooperative Program; Page promised to strengthen it. Smaller churches want less CP money to be controlled by megachurches like Floyd's in AR, and Huckabee, who keeps up with the church bulletins, said the election probably represented the collective will of small churches who thought that Page "would stand up for the little guy" over the larger megachurches. [MARC AMBINDER]

EMILY's List's new endorsements indicate that the group is taking early steps to ensure the strongest Dems emerge -- even in primaries where two women are running.

-- In AZ 08, they endorsed ex-state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D), who worked closely with EMILY's List in the legislature. She won a GOP-leaning state Senate seat, and has earned the lion's share of establishment support. But ex-TV anchor Patty Weiss (D) has raised a respectable $183K, and boasts high name ID from her time on the news.

-- They're also backing ex-LG Mazie Hirono in a crowded Dem primary field in HI 02. The ex-LG lost to Gov. Linda Lingle (R) in '02, but is looking to make a comeback. Her main rival, Colleen Hanabusa (D), has served in the state Senate for 8 years.

-- EMILY's List has been active this cycle, getting involved in 5 primaries with two women running (MN SEN, IL 06 OH 13 being the others). Meanwhile, the DCCC is steering clear of picking favorites in these races. Will EMILY's List's early intervention pay off for Dems in the long-term? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Hillary Clinton's "major policy speech" on privacy, at the American Constitution Society¹s national convention this morning, seemed like a reversal from the tribulations of her recent speaking gigs. Liberals at the Take Back America conference booed Clinton on Wednesday over her position on Iraq; this on the heels of the sniping she drew after her last major policy speech, on energy, for her wonkery, timing (was she stealing Al Gore¹s thunder?), and even her lemon-yellow pantsuit.

Dressed sharply in the establishment-approved dark suit (touche, David Broder), Clinton drew a polite ovation and then proceeded to criticize the nation¹s privacy laws as "broken, inadequate, and out of date." Touting herself, jokingly, as "an expert in the perils of losing your privacy," Clinton rattled off a host of recent identity thefts and privacy violations, including those of thousands of vets whose personal information is at risk due to the theft of a Veterans Administration laptop, and vowed to "put the checks and balances back into the system."

Clinton took pains to avoid the impression that she is a screechy, limp-wristed lefty, invoking the VA theft
(twice) and national security, and characterizing privacy as "a human value" that is "synonymous with liberty." The centerpiece of Clinton¹s speech was her forthcoming PROTECT Act‹Privacy Rights and Oversight for Electronic and Commercial Transactions Act of 2006 (she had the grace to credit her staff for the snazzy acronym)‹a "privacy bill of rights" complete with a Privacy Czar to shore up consumer protection and keep the government in line. [JOSHUA GREEN]

Green is senior editor of the Atlantic.

Earlier this week, aspiring presidential candidate Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) surprised Iowa Republicans by unveiling his state leadership team a year and a half before the Iowa caucuses. The three most influential names on the list: Ed Failor Jr., the head of Iowa's large taxpayer (business) advocacy group -- he served as the Bush Campaign's Victory 2004 director in the state. Then State Sen. Stew Iverson, a former majority leader. And Benton Co. chairman Loras Schutle, a longtime Republican kingmaker. Officially, these folks will help Pataki's 21st Century Freedom PAC help GOP candidates in '06. But everyone else realizes it's about '08.

Then came the heat. We hear that Failor's public move has angered many non-affiliated Iowans who wondered why he'd telegraph his presidential sentiments so early. And Schutle made it clear that he's not willing to be seen as a Pataki endorser.

In a letter sent to friends and allies and obtained by the Hotline, Schutle explained that he has not endorsed Pataki for president in '08.

From the e-mail

"I have had numerous emails about press reports regarding my involvement with Governor George Pataki's 21st Century Freedom PAC, so I've decided to do this mass email to clarify any misconceptions. First, my involvement in the PAC is not an endorsement of the Governor for President but it does reflect how seriously I take the job of helping to fund our 2006 candidates for the State House, particularly our new conservative first-time candidates that I and other conservatives have spent more than a year recruiting."

Schutle, the Benton Co. GOP chair, attached a Word document to the letter outlining his ideas for "pulling out all the stops to win in 2006." [MARC AMBINDER]

And other trivia, from an American Spectator interview with an "unvarnished" Arlen Specter.

On various Democrats: Minority Leader Reid, in various comments discussed at the dinner, "is not a deep thinker, to put it gently." Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry "didn't have any substance or any backbone." In 20 years, Kerry has "a remarkably vacuous record." Kerry at the podium is dullsville: "He's like a high school orator."

And former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala "was a colossal failure... a good bluffer, but she was a lousy administrator." Under her watch, scientists sometimes couldn't even keep deadly strains of diseases "under lock and key."

* Yes, he said, the U.S. judicial Ninth Circuit (known for its extremely liberal judges) is too big, and he intends to do something about it fairly soon. "We will split the circuit." "I believe we will split the court.... I believe it is something we will do early next year."

Webb's focus on Allen's party loyalty reflects the dramatic turnabout in Virginia over the past six years. In his successful 2000 challenge to then-incumbent Sen. Chuck Robb, D-Va., also a decorated Marine veteran of Vietnam, Allen repeatedly said Robb embraced "Clinton values, not Virginia values," and he attacked Robb as a Clinton loyalist. "Heck, even Hillary Clinton doesn't agree with President Clinton 87 percent of the time," Allen would say on the stump. It worked for Allen in '00 to hang eight years of Clinton around Robb's neck. In '06, Webb will try to hang six years of Bush around Allen's.

2006 Race Rankings House races are updated this week, with a new contest atop the list of most vulnerable seats. Plus:   Senate races · Governor races · White House

What Impact Will The Netroots Have On 11/06?

                          GOP Dem

Help Dems                 14% 69%

Help GOPers               15   0

No significant impact     70  31

That's Pres. Bush's approval rating in the latest NBC News/WSJ poll, out today. The number is another example of Bush's continuting uptick , ever so slight that it is, but as Bush rises, things don't look that much better for Cong. GOPers.

Congress' approval is up one point , to 23%. GOPers are also sobered by the news that 49% of Americans now want a Dem Congress, up from 45%. It looks worse when you put it next to the 38% who want 11/06 to result in a GOP Congress.

The poll also underlines the continued importance of immigration. 32% of respondents see the issue as one of the two most important factors that will determine their vote, second only to the war in Iraq. Surprisingly, though, when respondents hear the House and Sen immigration plans described, 50% opt for the Sen version, which offers a shorter fence and a guest worker program. Just 33% go for the longer fence and deportation. [REID WILSON]

If you didn't want to watch the Britney Spears interview on "Dateline," don't worry, cable discussed it too. Along with the House vote on Iraq and Bill Gates' decision to devote more time to charity work.

CNN's Crowley: "The resolution is merely a vehicle for debate on Iraq, the single most important issue of the election year. It is a piece of paper with no force of law, but, Republicans hope, the potential to force divided Democrats into a corner" ("AC 360," 6/15).

MSNBC's Shuster: "Republicans may be putting Democrats in a no-win situation. A yea vote on the resolution ties Democrats to Bush Iraq policies down the line. A vote against the resolution makes the Democrats vulnerable to Republican charges that the Democrats are on the side of terrorists" ("Hardball," 6/15).

Rep. Marty Meehan (D-MA): "I am personally going to vote no on it, because I think, frankly, we should have had a discussion about the war in Iraq. ... It's not a debate when the Republican leadership that control the Senate, the House, and the White House say, you vote up or down" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/15).

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA): "I know this sounds funny with a few months to go before this election, but I think we have to look at this operation in a bipartisan way and in a non-political way" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/15).

GOP strategist Mary Matalin: "This is not a referendum on Bush. It's a choice. It's compared to what? What are the Democrats offering? We saw what they offered today, Kerry in the Senate. It was voted down 93-6, to pull the troops out" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 6/15).

PLAY IT AGAIN JOHN

Sean Hannity interviewed VP Cheney on his radio show. He played a portion of that interview on "Hannity & Colmes":

Cheney, asked about John Kerry saying he was misled on Iraq: "I guess I'm not surprised at John Kerry switching his position yet again. ... He did in fact support our efforts in Iraq initially. He says he voted for the $87 billion before he voted against it. Now I suppose this is sort of a complete 180-degree turn that he'd started during the last campaign. The fact of the matter is they're making the charge, Kerry is now, that somehow he was misled. He wasn't misled. He saw the same intelligence all the rest of us saw" (FNC, 6/15).

LET'S TALK

Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist was in the "Situation Room," where he got asked about pretty much everything but Anderson Cooper's interview with Angelina Jolie.

Frist, on Gates' announcement: "He took head-on the challenge that three million people die of HIV-AIDS every year, that two million people die of tuberculosis every year, that one million people die of malaria every year, and he said, I'm going to do something about it."

On cong. approval ratings: "I don't think we've done a very good job messaging what we have accomplished even over the last year and a half" (CNN, 6/15).

And then Frist played "Hardball" on the issues of Iraq and Iran.

On Iran: "I am fairly optimistic. Nobody really knows what is going to happen, but by clearly working in a multilateral, cooperative way with a number of parties at the table, that will put the maximal amount of pressure on Iran to denounce what is their goal" (MSNBC, 6/15). [EMILY GOODIN]

Springtime in the Caribbean? Paris in the Fall? How about Italy next summer? It's a hard life being a Congressional spouse (or their Cheif of Staff's spouse), but someone has got to do it. Data courtesy of the Center for Public Integrity's "Power Trips" research project shows 23,000 privately funded trips from 01/00 to 06/05. Here are some favorite fact-finding hot spots where members took their spouses and family members (or staff and their respective spouses). A quick note: the data comes from self-reported travel disclosure forms, which acoording to CPI, aren't always complete.

No less than 79 lawmakers and staff took their spouses to Vegas during the studied time period. Lucky Rep. Darrell Issa went with his wife on four trips sponsored by the Consumers Electronics Association. The most expensive Sin City trips went to Rep. Harold Rogers and his wife. The trips, which lasted a couple of days, cost almost $8,000 in '00 and $9,400 in '01-- all paid for by the National Association of Broadcasters.

Members of Congress and staff took their family to the Carribean on 52 trips during that time period. Sen. Dick Lugar went with his wife twice, while Rep. Major Owens and spouse took a rather pricey 5-day trip for around $10,000 sponsored by the Aspen Institute. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

The CO 07 Dem primary is nearly two months away. But already ex-state Sen. Ed Perlmutter and ex-state Rep. Peggy Lamm are in a heated debate over who's on top. Several polls show Lamm leading. But Perlmutter's campaign disputes the numbers, questioning their methodology and arguing they're artificially boosted by her famous last name. (Her ex-brother-in-law is ex-Gov. Dick Lamm.) The campaign, though, hasn't yet heated up. No candidates have sent out direct mail or run ads.

The primary pits labor against EMILY's List. Months ago, the two tag-teamed to help atty. Betty Sutton win the come-from-behind OH 13 nomination. But now they're at odds: The unions backed Perlmutter early while EMILY's List is helping fund Lamm. Perlmutter leads in fundraising, and has the majority of establishment support. But in a CD where nearly 60% of Dem primary voters are women, could gender play a role? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Jim Dean, bro of the DNC chair and head of Democracy for America, is hopping mad at the DSCC and Chuck Schumer.

We reported yesterday that Schumer pointedly declined to rule out supporting Lieberman even if Lieberman's allies were to mount an independent bid on his behalf. Schumer seemed to say that as long as Lieberman promised to caucus with Dems and vote for Harry Reid as majority leader, Lieberman would still be in Schumer's good graces.

That really oinked off Jim Dean, who wrote this morning that

"Joe hasn't confirmed that he's planning to run as an Independent. But his campaign seems to be laying the groundwork, courting important Beltway insiders from both sides of the aisle. Amazingly, Senator Chuck Schumer, Chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), has said that the DSCC will not rule out supporting Lieberman if he runs as an Independent. The DSCC's mission is to elect Democrats to the Senate. Yet in this case, they would prefer to back an incumbent who leaves the party instead of a principled progressive who's proud to be a Democrat."

Dean urges Lieberman to promise to support Lamont if Lamont wins. He then asks for money for Lamont (and other DFA-endorsed candidates.)

This is personal: Jim Dean hails from Connecticut.

One note of caution: Schumer's answer was probably intended to give Lieberman some public, establishment cover to begin to explore the mechanics of an independent bid. And even if he does, we doubt the DSCC will spend a dime's more than already budgeted in CT anyway. It's a safe seat for a Dem -- or an independent who caucuses with Dems. [MARC AMBINDER]

We hear that ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner will attend the Capitol Hill ice cream social today as a guest of none other than Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA.)

Warner and Harkin don't know each other, and both expressed an interest in sitting down, and, oh yeah, the annual event put on by dairy farmers and ice cream producers includes a healthy scoop of Iowans.

The schedule work out, and Warner will get some private time with Harkin, too.
[MARC AMBINDER]

Check out this White House pool report, which describes the scene as the president prepared to sign what he calls a "bipartisan" broadcast indecency bill.

In walk 11 members of the House and Senate to line up in front of the 10 flags, with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist appearing somewhat painfully aware of the fact that the lineup has placed him a good four positions to the right of the president -- which may be appropriate. In other words, when the president walks in, Frist will not be in the camera shot at the podium. A beaming House Majority Leader John Boehner is very much in the shot, however, standing just to the 11 oclock position in the shot.

Boehner smiles brightly. Frist smiles with clenched teeth.

That's the percentage of Tennesseans who know, and have an unfavorable opinion of, Rep. Harold Ford (D) in the latest Zogby poll. 51% of the state views the Sen candidate favorably, which means that while a much higher percentage of Volunteers know the guy, he's already very well-defined, especially considering his opponents. Ex-Rep. Van Hilleary (R) (54% Fav, 18% unfav), ex-Rep. Ed Bryant (R) (44%-12%) and ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) (52%-17%) are all less well-known, and therefore have higher potential upsides than Ford.

The Zogby poll also shows Ford trailing all three GOPers -- Corker by a margin of 46%-41%, Hilleary by a 43%-41% score and Bryant by a few 10ths of a percent, but for rounding purposes we'll call it 42%-42%. Notice that the GOPers' leads are all within the margin of error (+/- 4.5%), and it should be pointed out that Ford is crushing all three GOPers among indies. Those caveats aside, what is Ford’s ultimate ceiling? Does he need a perfect campaign to nab 51%?

While people on Fox thought they could dance, pundits danced around the issue of Pres. Bush's press conference:

Time's Mike Allen: "This was the least defensive you've seen the president since maybe December first of 2004. Now one of the basic rules of life is the confident guy gets the girl and you saw the president out there very confident. ... He really seemed to have eaten his Cheerios this morning" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/14).

Wall Street Journal's Harwood: "What the president is trying to do now is move the debate forward and not back. He knows if it's looking backwards he will lose that debate" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 6/14).

Instead of talking about the Bush presser, the FNC roundtable discussed the behavior of the press. FNC's Barnes: "These questions tell you what reporters are interested in and not what is really important or what the American people would like to hear about" ("Special Report," 6/14).

TAKE ME TO YOUR LEADER

House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi was in the "Situation Room."

Pelosi, on Iraq: "Our Democratic Party has never said to members, on a war vote, there's a party position. We are representatives. We're independent reflection of our districts."

On Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) dropping out of the leadership race: "In the interest of winning the election, and in the party unity that we have, Mr. Murtha said to me that: I will suspend my campaign. But the reason is, also, we are about to have our Democratic New Direction for America. ... Out of respect for the president and our troops, when he called the meeting at the White House, we said, we will put that off. But we haven't postponed putting out our message, a New Direction for America, where we will make America safer by the first day, enacting the 9/11 Commission recommendations, a fairer economy. The first day, we will vote for an increase in the minimum wage" (CNN, 6/14).

IT'S A BIRD, IT'S A PLANE ...

And Dallas Morning News' Slater was on "Countdown" to talk about Karl Rove. Guest host Brian Unger asked him: "Wayne, if Ronald Reagan was made of Teflon what is Rove made of?"

Slater: "He is made of kryptonite. He isn't just Superman, he levels Superman" (MSNBC, 6/14).[EMILY GOODIN]

Not surprisingly, Markos, writing at DailyKos, is not happy with the leeway DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer gave himself and the DSCC regarding Joe Lieberman should the incumbent Dem senator decide to abandon the Dem primary in favor of an indie bid. Schumer hinted that if Lieberman promised to caucus with the Dems and support Harry Reid as Maj. Leader, the DSCC would consider either sitting out or doing something proactively for Lieberman.

The problem the DSCC might have, though, is more than just the "mission" statement Kos cites regarding the cmte's endorsement procedure. While we're trying to get some legal clarification on this, there is something "official" that a state Dem party has to do in order to allow the DSCC to transfer money to help a particular candidate. For instance, the DSCC made sure the VT Dem Party endorsed Bernie Sanders in VT SEN before the DSCC could publicly touted its support of the "independent" member of Congress.

In order to financially support an indie Lieberman, does the DSCC need to have the CT Dem Party officially endorse Lieberman's indie run? Can the state party do that if Ned Lamont wins the Dem primary? Of course, the DSCC could simply sit out, something they regularly do in senate races where they don't believe party outcome is in jeopardy. It's easy to see how the DSCC could look at the CT landscape and believe that the two most likely winners in November will be candidates who will support Reid as majority leader. [CHUCK TODD]

Many-a-member of the Conventional Wisdom crowd is busy reassessing the presidential prospects of John Edwards, particularly in the wake of his surprising 1st place showing in the most recent Des Moines Register poll of IA Dem caucus goers. It seems the Edwards folks realize this as an email they sent out today does some boasting of his travels and his fundraising prowess for OTHER candidates. We emphasize OTHER because that's been the one area where some, including us, have questioned when pondering Edwards' future. He doesn't seem to be attempting to build up any warchest.

Edwards partisans contend the '04 VP nominee is simply giving his donors a break, noting that Edwards has been raising money from them non-stop since 2002. These two-years off, they believe, won't hurt them when they come calling for money again in the first part of '07.

As we previously noted, it's not everyday that a sitting Secretary of State, particularly this one, addresses such an important Republican political constituency. That said, Condi Rice kept most of her remarks at the Southern Baptist Convention focused on int'l issues.

The Center for American Progress released their response to the Boehner memo below. The full memo is after the jump:

The current debate on Iraq offers progressives an opportunity to keep the Bush administration honest. It is also an opportunity to ensure that the United States has a strategy for completing the military mission at a time of our choosing and getting the Iraq policy on the right track. Progressives need to offer responsible criticisms, outline alternatives, and ready themselves for an onslaught of unfair attacks and half-truths.

The conservative message will focus on simplistic slogans like “cut and run” and “retreat and defeat.” A memorandum sent by House majority leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) (PDF) earlier this week encourages Republican members to exploit September 11th and attack opponents of the current Iraq policy as weak on national security. Conservatives will attempt to shift the frame from discussing Iraq to talking about the broader fight against global terrorism. Progressives should welcome this challenge — the Bush administration is vulnerable in its efforts to fight global terrorism, as well as Iraq.

The Republican National Committee's '08 convention selection committee said today it would visit four finalist cities -- Cleveland, Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York City and Tampa-St. Pete -- in August.

Based on an early reading of the tea-leaves, as well as discussions with a few knowledgeable Republicans, here's what we know about the early bids.

New York City doesn't seem to be doing much to promote their bid beyond a general "We Did In '04; We Can Do It Again" angle. That may change as the city's host committee wraps up. The convention wisdom, which we don't know enough to refute or endorse, holds that NY poo-bahs really want the '08 Dem convention, or both conventions. We'll see.

Tampa St-Pete will put together an attractive bid. The major -- and we mean major -- problem is that convention date lies smack in the middle of hurricane season. It's not enough to show that the area is generally spared the wrath of Gulf storms... it's very hard for us to envision the site selection committee choosing a city that could be -- and is frequently -- targeted by hurricanes.

Keep your eye on Cleveland and Minneapolis-St. Paul... especially the latter. The GOP likes the pitch and location of the state and the mechanics of the Twin Cities bid has already impressed some senior GOPers.

BTW: the Site Selection Committee is represented by RNC members Jo-Ann Davidson, Barbara Alby (CA), Sara Gear Boyd, (VT), Sharon Day (FL), Richard Graber (WI), Jeff Kent, (WA), Connie Nicholas (ND), David Norcross (NJ), and Edgar Welden (AL) [MARC AMBINDER]

At a briefing for the Washington, D.C. political press corps today, DSCC chair Chuck Schumer was in a mood to marvel and brag. Last night, with the victory of Jim Webb, Democrats finally found their eighth competitive Senate contest. (Chuck always wanted eight; Dems need to win at least six and keep hold of the roughly four Dem-held seats that are vulnerable.)

Pointing to the victories of Webb, a Reagan Democrat with a flair for non-traditional Democratic positions, and Jon Tester, who spent half as much as his primary challenger in Montana, Schumer said that party activists had turned to pragmatism and were less inclined to hold candidates to litmus tests.

Schumer said the Dem primary voters want winners and are focused one electability. He couldn't resist adding even "in 2008," which pricked the ears of reporters who thought he was sending a message about the relative electability of Hillary Clinton. (He wasn't, apparently.)

Schumer said that the DSCC "fully supports" Sen. Joe Lieberman in his primary bid, and he refused to rule out continuing that support if Lieberman were to run as an independent.

There were degrees of independence, Schumer said. "You can run as an independent, you can run as an independent Democrat who pledges to vote for Harry Reid as Majority Leader."

Schumer said he had neither sought nor recieved assurances from Lieberman that an independent bid would not ensue if Ned Lamont tightened the noose.

Schumer, quoting a national political publication, noted that the last two times the Senate flipped -- '80 and '86 , the House didn't follow suit. The Senate, he said, was more suspectable to waves than the House. "When I was a congressman, I knew a third of my constituents," he said. The distance most Senators have from the vast majority of their constituents makes them more vulnerable if voters are disilllusioned.

Questioned about the Democratic message, Schumer said that 75 percent of the electorate's decision will be a referendum on Pres. Bush and 25 percent will be predicated on whether Democrats present a compelling alternative.

And he didn't take the bait; he said he was pleased with DNC GOTV and voter registration efforts in states like PA and OH. [MARC AMBINDER]

In the pre-positioning between WH '08ers, endorsing future party leaders gives us in the media a fun way to play the horse race game. We all saw IA Gov. Tom Vilsack's presumedly preferred candidate go down in IA, while ex-Sen. John Edwards' boy won. In NE, Sen. John McCain's candidate for Gov., Rep. Tom Osborne, lost out to Sen. Chuck Hagel's candidate, Gov. Dave Heineman.

Well, yesterday's primary brought one more surrogate battle. In SC's 123rd district, State Rep. Richard Chalk beat out challenger Tom Herbkersman 55%-45%. Chalk focuses on health care issues in the SC legislature and in early 10/05 invited ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich to Hilton Head to keynote a health seminar. While there, Gingrich held a luncheon with SC legislative GOPers and a fundraiser for Rep. Bob Inglis (R-04), and lent his name and a quote to Chalk.

Herbkersman, on the other hand, is the brother of State Rep. Bill Herbkersman of the nearby 118th district. Thanks to some mutual friends and political supporters, the challenger was able to wrangle a donation out of, guess who, John McCain.

We'd also note that this is the third race in which McCain has chosen the wrong horse in the primary. Aside from Osborne and Herbkersman, McCain also endorsed ex-Rep. Dave Emery (R), who came in third behind State Sen. Chandler Woodcock and State Sen. Peter Mills in the race to take on Gov. John Baldacci (D) in November.

A GOP source in SC points McCain also endorsed SC House Maj Leader Rick Quinn for State Treasurer. Quinn came in a distant third to ’02 Sen candidate Thomas Ravenel (R) and State Sen. Greg Ryberg.

Now -- to be fair -- McCain was one of the earliest endorses of Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA) before Nussle shooed out his primary challenger, and he was an early supporter of OH Gov nominee Ken Blackwell. [REID WILSON]

Few people know the importance of organic email lists better than Zack Exley, a former Moveon.org and Kerry Internet guru, who recently started RootsPrimary.org. The site is intended to attract grassroots support -- and email addresses -- for WH'08 Dems, no matter if they've declared yet or flat out denied they're thinking about a run.

Once the candidate declares, Exley will hand over the email addresses and names unconditionally to the candidate. "Unconditionally" is the operative word here because it was a problem for Draft Clark '04, which had a bumpy time working out terms with the campaign before handing over its supporters. Exley will also hand over the entire list to eventual Dem nominee if the user gives his or her permission upon voting.

...They just get rejiggered.

Running against a decorated Marine veteran of Vietnam in '00, Sen. George Allen liked to jab ex-Sen. Chuck Robb (D) for how frequently he supported Pres Clinton's agenda.

"Heck, even Hillary Clinton doesn't agree with President Clinton 87 percent of the time," the folksy Allen would say on the stump.

Now, six years later, a decorated Marine veteran of Vietnam is tweaking Allen for how often he backs Pres Bush.

"It's not leadership to follow this administration blindly 97 percent of the time," Jim Webb said upon accepting the nomination last night.

In a state becoming a purpler shade of red, will such tying of Allen to Bush resonate as it did with Robb to Clinton?

House Maj. Leader John Boehner (R-OH), in a "confidential" memo to his caucus, previews the distinctions GOPers will draw with Dems as the debate over Iraq gets underway. The House will consider a resolution equating the war in Iraq with the broader war on terror. The Senate, meanwhile, is buzzing about an amendment set to be introduced by Sen. John Kerry that would require Pres. Bush to withdraw all troops by the end of this year.

Boehner: "....we must conduct this debate as a portrait of contrasts between Republicans and Democrats with regard to one of the most important political issues of our era. Articulating and advocating our core principles will allow the American public to witness Members of Congress debate a fundamental question facing America’s leaders: In a post-9/11 world, do we confront dangerous regimes and the threat of terrorism with strength and resolve, or do we instead abandon our efforts against these threats in the hopes that they will just fade away on their own? Republicans believe victory in Iraq will be an important blow to terrorism and the threat it poses around the world. Democrats, on the other hand, are prone to waver endlessly about the use of force to protect American ideals. Capitol Hill Democrats’ only specific policy proposals are to concede defeat on the battlefield and instead, merely manage the threat of terrorism and the danger it poses."

The full memo is after the jump.

Bush: "I remember in 2004, people stood up and said, there's no way you can get re-elected. I think was I down, what, double-digits at some point. well, the elections are a long way off. What's going to matter is, who's got the plan that is going to enable us to succeed in Iraq and keeps the economy growing. I believe we're going to hold the House and the Senate. Our philosophy is forward-thinking and optimistic .... They're an interesting debate in the Democrat Party as to how quickly we're going to pull out of Iraq....It will endanger our country to pull out of Iraq before we complete the mission. If we fail in Iraq, we're going to embolden Al Quaeda types and weaken the resolves of moderate nations to stand up to Islamic facists. "

On whether he'll campaign:

"The timing is not right for me to get out there. I think the Democrat economic policy of raising people's taxes is going to... I know they couch it in all kinds of language, but what they're really thinking is, we're going to raise your taxes."

Pres. Bush, asked by the AP's Nedia Pickler, if troop withdrawals wouldn't begin unless violence were reduced.

"I said that if people say there's gotta be no violence then it's not going to happen. All that does is give the power to a handful of murderers to determine success. Obviously, we'd like violence to go down. The reason why we shouldn't have a zero-violence [policy] is because there are other measures ot determine success, starting with political measures." Bush said he the only target he had for reducing violence was that it would be "enough for the government to succeed." On troop levels: "our policy is stand up, stand down. If Iraq stands up, we'll stand down."

To Close Gitmo?
Bush: "I'd like to close [Gitmo], but I also recognzie that we're holding some people who are darn dangerous and we'd better have a plan to handle them through our courts. The best way to handle them is through our military courts, and we're waiting for the Supreme Court to make a decision." More Bush: "I'm proud of the United States military. And that's a message our military and their families must consistently hear. I'm not going to let these incidents stain the reputation of our military.

Calls on Roger... . Says Roger, Roger. Bush: "The tax cuts are working."

Oil Profits

Bush calls on ABC News' Jake Tapper: Do you support guaranteeing the Sunnis a percentage of the oil profits? Bush: "That's a not a bad question for a substitute guy. I believe that the Iraqi government on what to do with their resources is their decision, not mine." Bush calls his advice "advisory." "My advice to them is to use their energy assets as a way to unite the country." He also said they might want to consider an oil royalty trust."

Amnesty for insurgents?

Bush: "The prime minister was...reconcilliation. This is an issue that is on the minds of a lot of folks there in Iraq. They're tyring to figure out how to reconcile an ugly past with a hopeful future. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by amnesty. They recognize that, for examplee Baath party membership in order to secure a job and in order to get an advanced degree, shouldn't be held against a person."

We hear he raised $2M last night for his PAC.

Rudy Or George?

If you don't want to watch the president's presser at 9:45, you can follow it here.

Instead, check out Cher on C-Span.

Cher.

On C-Span.

Basketball players were jumping through the hoops last night as were pundits.

There was a lot of talk about Pres. Bush's trip to Iraq. There was not a lot of talk about Karl Rove.

NBC's Engel: "Bush was being treated like a rock star throughout this visit. ... He spoke to the troops, was signing autographs, there was band music playing" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/13).

CNN's J. King: "This is the second Bush visit to Iraq. The first was for a surprise Thanksgiving meal back in 2003. ... That trip gave the president a bounce in the polls heading into the 2004 reelection campaign" ("AC 360," 6/13).

NBC's Gregory: "I think there was a bit of a shot at Democrats today by the president saying, look, there is a ray of hope here. ... They want to go back to the same message they had in about 2004 that the Democrats are about cutting and running and the president and this party are about staying the course, especially when some of that vision bears some fruit" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/13).

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE): "I don't think you should confuse an event with a strategy. ... I think time's going to tell whether or not this represents a new strategy or merely a reliance upon a government that has now 250,000 people in uniform, but still totally incapable of providing for their own security at this point" ("NewsHour," PBS, 6/13).

Asked if it was a publicity stunt, Biden: "If, come September, things are just as bad as they are now, then, it wasn't much more than that" ("Situation Room," CNN, 6/13).

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN): "It must have been impressive, I think to most around the world that the president went to Baghdad and was in the Green Zone today, physically visiting with the new president, and reassuring him that we have confidence" ("NewsHour," PBS, 6/13).

Washington Post's Milbank: "My favorite image of the day was the press secretary, Tony Snow, and Dan Bartlett, the counselor to the president, in the helicopter with flak jacket and helmets looking as if they may be close to losing their lunch" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 6/13).

ROVE HAD HIS OWN BIG DAY

MSNBC's Shuster: "What it underscores is that prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald is somebody who brings cases that he wins. His track record is incredible when it comes to going to trial and winning" ("Countdown," 6/13).

FNC's Angle: "Democrats had been salivating over the possibility of seeing the president's savviest political adviser indicted, as was Libby last fall. So when the special counsel cleared Rove, some were obviously disappointed" ("Special Report," 6/13).

Biden was asked if Bush stilled owed people an accounting about Rove. Biden: "Are you kidding me?" More Biden: "He's not going to do -- I know he said it. He's said a lot of things he's not going to do. As my mother would say, God love him" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/13).

Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), on Rove: "For all intents and purposes, I do think it's the end of it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/13).

IT'S NOT EASY, BEING GREEN

Al Gore was on "LKL" for the full hour.

Gore: "The reason I've helped to make this movie and the reason I've written this book is because one of the things I learned in trying to solve this crisis is that whoever is in office is going to have to have a sea change in public opinion. I'm focused on changing the minds of the American people about this climate crisis."

On WH '08: "I don't have plans to be a candidate again. I haven't made the so-called Sherman statement but that's not to leave the door open. It's more sort of an internal shifting of the gears. I really don't expect to be a candidate again."

CNN's L. King: "If there were a convention and they were deadlocked..."

Gore: "That doesn't happen anymore."

King: "And they came to you, it could happen."

Gore: "No."

King: "And they came to you?"

Gore: "No, no, no."

More Gore: "If you were a political reporter and you went to Iowa and New Hampshire, anywhere else in the country, you would look in vain for anyone who had been contacted by me or anyone on my behalf. I'm really not taking any steps" (CNN, 6/13). [EMILY GOODIN]

...But you wouldn't know it from looking at the headlines.

Physician Oscar Lovelace's (R) 35% (86K+votes) is being widely seen in SC as a repudiation to Sanford's governing style. Supporters of the gov like to brush off criticism by claiming that he is only disliked by those in "Columbia," referring less to the capital and more to the capitol. But all that bad press in the Columbia paper may have caught up with Sanford: he lost Lexington Co, a GOP bulwark just outside the capital city and just barely eked out a victory in Richland Co, where Columbia is located.

Still, whether the Dem nominee, state Sen. Tommy Moore (D), can compete with Sanford's fundraising advantage and popularity in the Lowcountry and Upstate regions remains to be seen.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Updated at 10:00 pm ET

Webb Wins

Webb: 53.3% | Miller: 46.69%
with 99% in.

Webb, in his victory speech, notes that he has hand surgery tomorrow. He mentions that the DSCC, per his conversation with Reid and Schumer, will help his campaign...Webb asks "How many bloggers we got here" and a huge cheer... (There are approx. 200 at the party... Probably 25 bloggers... ) Webb said the campaign "stood firm on our convictions and those convictions will cont to guide iin the coming months." Webb said Sen. George Allen "blindly" follows the Bush admin. "I wonder, George, what leadership?" Webb, asks noting Allens' TV ad tagline of "leadership and commonsense." Webb calls Iraq a "strategic blunder" and says it's not leadership to "remain silent" regarding domestic spying.

Webb then issued a debate challenge to Allen, asking for a series of forums on iraq, nat'l security, economy, immigration etc...

Harris Miller on Webb: "Jim Webb is going to be a great United States Senator, and I’m going to do everything I can to help him get there! Because Jim Webb is no sunshine patriot. He knows firsthand the price and peril of war, and as his son heads off to serve our country in Iraq, we send our thoughts and prayers with him. Jim knows, as we do, that this is no game – our country needs leaders right now, not politicians. "

Chris LaCivita, a senior strategist for Allen: "Let the fight begin".......

Note: Arl Co nearly turned out more voters than all of VA 02 (Thelma Drake) which has VA Beach/Norfolk, two of biggest cities in VA full of military. This election serves as another reminder to statewide candidates -- NOVA is the 800 lb gorilla, ignore or work around at your own risk. To that end, a winner tonight: Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), who'll seek John Warner's Senate seat if Warner retires in '08.

Miller concedes at approx. 8:50 pm....Ex-Va Gov. Mark Warner called Webb to congratulate him....as did Schumer and Reid.

SC GOV (R) | **Sanford (inc): 65 | Lovelace: 34% with 77.24% in

SC GOV (D) | **Moore: 64.8% | Willis: 29.4% with 77.24% in

ME GOV (R) | Emery: 23% | Mills: 36% | Woodcock: 41% with 41% in

As gleefully noted by the RNC, the Democratic leadership has -- sigh -- postponed its planned town hall meeting originally scheduled for tomorrow. The Dems were going to roll out their domestic agenda and tell the world what they'd do if they won control of Congress.

Blame... the Pres. Bush. He wants to meet with Cong. leaders at the White House tomorrow. So now, instead of town hall meeting with cameras, Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) will preview the program (or programme?) in a conference call. The actual roll out is -- again -- postponed.

The RNC Research document is after the jump.

BTW: We hear that the RNC will focus like a laser beam this summer on what they'll term the "Real Democratic Agenda" and try to hammer home, in targeted districts across the country, the alleged nightmare that Americans will awake to if Dems regain control.

How important was Webb's monster 69% win in Arlington Co? The 11,934 total votes in the county alone will exceed the turnout in 5 of VA's 11 CDs.

The Blue bastion, where Webb used to live, is full of savvy, affluent "Washington-centric" voters who follow nat'l affairs and get most of their news from the Post. While Webb did pick up the backing of some local officials there, it is a place where the Dems are probably more moved by receiving a robocall from John Kerry than by who their local state Senator endorsed. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

In what may be a first in a VA Dem primary, it appears that Webb will easily win the contest while losing every single majority-minority locality in the commonwealth. Just look at Rep. Bobby Scott's 3rd CD that streches from Richmond all the way down I-64 to the Tidewater cities of Newport News, Hampton and Norfolk. Miller will finish with around 70% of the vote there. His problem, however, was that he just did not get enough of these black voters to the polls, while Webb combined his convincing 20%+ margins in the NOVA CDs with equally impressive turnout numbers.

If Webb is to beat Allen this fall, he will need to pile up huge numbers in the black community to offset Allen's rural strength. One way to ensure this would be to pick up the support of VA's most prominent black politician -- ex-Gov./Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder (D). The ever-wily Wilder stayed neutral in the primary and has a warm relationship with Allen.

Who is the first to schedule the phone call down to Richmond's City Hall tomorrow -- Jarding or LaCivita? [JONATHAN MARTIN]

For those following the presidential derby, the knock on Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) has been that he was late to the game ... and not doing enough to recruit staff.

The Waterloo Courier reports today that Huckabee's PAC has retained the services of Eric Woolson, who in '00 was George W. Bush's chief Iowa spokesman.

That means Huckabee has a savvy, well-regarded Iowa media sherpa. His Washington consultant, Kirsten Fedewa, helps organize events for him across the country and makes sure to keep Huckabee in front of the national political press corps, including several Hotliners.

It's a start.

Reading the various turnout numbers proffered by the blogs and campaigns, we thought it might be worthwhile to contact actual registrars to get actual confirmed numbers.

Reaching such individuals in the major localities at around 5 o'clock on an election day is all but impossible, so we called four smaller county registrars instead. Each of the four represent Dem Co's that typically support Dems in all general elections.

None had on hand (or at least was willing to provide) their totals, but each of the four could barely contain their laugh when we asked how turnout had been running.

Buchanan and Dickenson Co's are in the far SW region of VA. Both are Dem strongholds that were islands of blue in a sea of red for Sen. John Kerry in '04. This is coal country, where UMW and ancestral Dem ties still often trump all.

The election officials we talked to in these locales said turnout was dismal, and running below past primaries.

Greensville and Brunswick are in Southside VA, just north of the NC border. Each is a majority-black county.

The registrar in Greensville told us that as of late afternoon they had seen just 30 out of 1,000 voters at their biggest precinct.

It was even worse in Brunswick. There we were told that out of over 10K total registered voters in the county, they had seen only 75 show up at the polls.

Bottom line: This primary never really got beyond the so-called urban crescent (Northern VA, metro Richmond, Tidewater) of VA, and it is there where it will be decided in a few hours.

As Taegan Goddard reports over at Political Wire, "key allies of Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) are making contingency plans" for an Indie bid.

And now we learn that the CT chapter of AFT will buck the three-term Sen to back Ned Lamont.

AFT becomes the first major union to bail out on Lieberman.

We heard very recently from one of Lieberman's closest friends that he knows he could "really lose this thing."

If more unions defect, he'll have good reason to think that.

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's visibility surge will get a super-charged financial boost tonight, as his largely-dormant Solutions America PAC expects to raise more than $1M to help elect GOP candidates in '06. Giuliani, and special guest RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, will headline tonight's event at the Four Seasons Hotel in midtown. Home Depot founder Ken Langone chairs the event.

An aide to Giuliani says about 175 donors and supporters will show. The event will highlight '06 GOP candidates, and several are expected to attend, including MN State Sen. Michelle Bachman, whose running to fill Rep. Mark Kennedy's MN 06 seat, IA 03 cong. candidate Jeff Lamberti, IL 08 candidate David McSweeney and SC 05 candidate Ralph Norman.

Through the PAC and in person, Giuliani has campaigned this cycle for more than 18 GOPers. Tomorrow, the PAC plans to begin writing more checks. An aide: "We'll do $100,000 tomorrow." The PAC will also relaunch its website, which features an interactive candidate map and other bells and whistles. No blog yet, though.

Next month, Giuliani plans a three-day campaign marathon across the country, starting with a fundraiser for Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH). The trip will take him to AR to campaign for Asa Hutchinson's gov campaign, to PA, where'll he return to help Sen. Rick Santorum (R), and to MD, where he'll assist Gov. Bob Ehrlich. Between now and then, Giuliani has several campaign stops planned -- he's in TX later this week for TX 17 GOP nominee Van Taylor and the Dallas Co. GOP. He'll also host two Get Motivated seminars, including one tomorrow in Oklahoma City.

BTW: Mehlman has raised money for Sen. Bill Frist's VolPAC, Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC and plans a fundraiser for Sen. George Allen's PAC. The RNC has reached out to the PACs affiliated with other potential presidential candidates offering them assistance and access to lists. [MARC AMBINDER]

Alright, so you could call him a bit of a flip-flopper. He did donate to both of Teresa Heinz Kerry's husbands in a span of no less than six years. According to FEC records, PA GOV candidate Lynn Swann and his wife gave a combined total of $2.5K to Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)’s Senate bid in ’96 and ’97. As his spokesperson Lenny Alcivar points out, Swann is on the board of H.J. Heinz Company, a.k.a. the source of much of THK’s fortune and the two are "friends" through his affiliation with the company. Swann and his wife donated $2,000 each to Bush Cheney ’04 and campaigned for President in the same cycle, but neither donated to Bush Cheney in ’00. However Swann did give to THK's first husband, the late Sen. John Heinz (R-PA), in both '89 and '90.

There are also no records of Swann donating to his ticket-buddy Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA). But he did give $500 in ’02 to Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), who was kind enough to return the favor by giving his unsolicited advice to Swann’s campaign via the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial board. Swann’s socially conservative positions and ticket have much more in common with Santorum than Specter, but in the population-heavy, Gov. Rendell lovin’ southeastern PA, maybe Specter is both king and king-maker?
[SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

Washington, D.C. -- House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi released the following statement today:

"In the spirit of unity to achieve our goal of winning a Democratic majority in November, Congressman John Murtha has informed me that he will suspend his campaign for Majority Leader until after we win a Democratic Majority of the House.

"I appreciate Mr. Murtha's continuing cooperation and leadership in our effort to win a Democratic House to take America in a New Direction for everyone."

A mini-guide to today's VA SEN primary, ME GOV primary and SC GOV primary:

VA SEN: This is the rare statewide campaign where both sides, speaking for attribution or on background, aren't confident predicting the outcome. The one thing they are sure of is that turnout will be lackluster, perhaps not even exceeding the 115K who came out for the 4-way '05 LG primary.

By traditional measures, ex-technology lobbyist Harris Miller (D) would seem to be the favorite. Thanks to spending nearly $1M of his own money, Miller has been up statewide on both TV and radio since before Memorial Day, while ex-Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) has not bought any TV time, and just went on the radio over the weekend. Further, Miller has sent triple the number of mail pieces than Webb and outpaced him with automated calls, as well. Democrats know that in primaries, campaigns matter.

But. But -- primary voters are smarter, too. They tend to think more prospectively, especially if they're choosing a challenger to an incumbent.

Webb, by dint of his incredible biography, has a devoted following in the blogs and his unique biography has won him support from nat'l Dems and favorable attention from the nat'l press. Despite his fundraising deficit and GOP background, Webb has drawn fervent grassroots support. He has won all 5 of the straw polls held by various Dem County Committees across the commonwealth, and has attracted larger crowds at his events and apperances than Miller.

So the big question that will be answered tonight is: Does the traditional paid media, mail and phones campaign still trump an outspent, volunteer-based effort? And, a corollary, do the "Webb-head" bloggers have the power and numbers to actually move votes?

Look for the majority of votes in this contest to come out of Northern VA and the Tidewater region. Both candidates are based in Northern VA and each has spent much time there. One Webb adviser said they expect as much as 45% of the vote to come from this most populous part of VA. Each has also paid many visits to the military and African-American-heavy Tidewater. This race will be won in these two regions.

ME GOV: Three Republicans face off today in the Gubernatorial primary, though thus far the race the far has generated little excitement among voters (link here: http://news.mainetoday.com/midday/index.html#2). Republican ex-Rep. Dave Emery, State Sens. Peter Mills and Chandler Woodcock will compete to challenge democratic Gov. John Baldacci in November. Despite big names like ex-Pres. Clinton and Sen. John McCain heading up north to campaign for the contenders and Baldacci’s approval rating hovering under 50 percent, none of the three GOP contenders generated momentum during the primary. In other words, there is no front runner.

The primary has also been largely void of any kind of conflict between the candidates, except for Emery reliably chiding his GOP opponents for taking public financing for their campaigns. But that could work out in favor of the two state Senators, who had more money to spend during in the primary than Emery, who loaned his own campaign $15K in addition to unpaid obligations totaling $56K, according to the last fundraising report

One small step for man, one giant step for e-advocacy groups. Congress' Chief Administrative Offices have come up with a new feature intended to lighten the email load sent to Capitol Hill offices. If you check out the "Write Your Rep" (WYR) page, certain offices have added a logic puzzle to the process of getting your congressman's contact information. Check out the demo here, or go to the main WYR page and enter California zip code 93292. As of last week, 55 House and four Senate members require the user must solve a logic puzzle (e.g. what is six minus one?) before obtaining their Congressman's contact information.

It's a small barrier for joe constituent, but the enhanced feature has gotten advocacy groups all riled up. It changes the way organizations such as AFL-CIO, ONE campaign, National Association of Realtors or Moveon.Org mobilizes its members to communicate with Congress. The organizations say this is just one more hoop for a constituent to go through to reach their elected representative. [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

It's curious form to raise money for your own campaign in Iowa, but then again, the guy DOES have a competitive Senate race.... (at least until tonight...maybe)

Last night, the Peter Beinart's The Good Fight subjected itself to a smashingly well-attended book party at the home of Nancy Jacobson and Mark Penn. (Watch for '08ish Post Style stories about the household; Jacobson is Sen. Evan Bayh's finance architect; Penn is Hillary Clinton's pollster.)

Both Bill and Hillary Clinton showed up (separately), and both heartily endorsed the idea that what the Democratic Party needs is... more ideas.

To that end, both showered affection on Andrei Cherny, the wunkerkind former Gore speechwriter / Kerry adviser whose new journal of ideas, "Democracy: A Journal Of Ideas," launches next week.

Cherny said he hopes the magazine will be a wellsrping for new ways for Democrats and progressives to think about their world and their politics.

Cherny's co-founder is Kenneth Baer , a well-regarded ex-Clintonite who is helping ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner. Mr. Baer was also warmly greeted by the Clintons.

Here's how the new journal describes itself:

Democracy: A Journal of Ideas is a new quarterly journal of serious progressive thought that will serve as a place where ideas can be developed and important debates can be spurred. We are the progressive analogue of conservative journals such as Commentary, the Public Interest, National Interest, and the American Interest, which have been the source of conservatives' biggest breakthrough thinking. Founded by Kenneth Baer and Andrei Cherny, Democracy's Editorial Committee includes Louis Caldera, Christopher Edley, William Galston, Leslie Gelb, Elaine Kamarck, Robert Reich, Susan Rice, Isabel Sawhill, Theda Skocpol, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Sean Wilentz.

Cherny, incidentally, is much in demand by '08 presidential staff recruiters. But the magazine will allow him to keep his powder dry... at least for the time being.

A footnote: the Wonkette boys, David Lat and Alex Pareene, found their way to the party and managed some quality face time with FPOTUS. (We're not sure if Doug Band, Clinton's erstwhile and harried-looking senior travelling aide, was quite aware of who they were.) [MARC AMBINDER]

POOL REPORT #2

Air Force One landed at the sprawling Baghdad International Airport at 4:08 PM Tuesday afternoon. The plane landed at a semi-deserted airstrip a good distance away from the main terminal. We were hustled off the plane by its back doors and led across the pavement to a waiting convoy of Nighthawk passenger helicopters [Secret Service agents had given us camouflage flak jackets shortly before we landed]. We didn't see POTUS enter his helicopter. As we took off, we could see a long list of waiting vehicles that had driven to the airstrip to meet the plane, including several GMC Suburbans, Humvees, and a white and red ambulance.

The helicopter ride was uneventful and lasted about seven minutes. Everyone on the helicopters was in body armor except for the White House aides, who wore business suits but no armor. Bartlett had earlier said that POTUS would also not be wearing body armor, though we could not verify that for ourselves. When we landed in the Green Zone, we were hustled to a waiting line of Suburbans and other SUVs for the short drive to the Republican Palace, a 1950's-era building which is now part of the U.S. Embassy compound. We arrived there around 4:32 PM local time.

More, after the jump.

POOL REPORT #1

BAGHDAD, Iraq - President Bush left for Baghdad on an unannounced five-hour trip designed to boost the government of new Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and allow the two leaders to get to know each other face-to-face.

The president departed Andrews Air Force Base after secretly traveling by helicopter from Camp David, where he was in the middle of a two-day Iraq summit with members of his cabinet and senior military officials. He was accompanied by senior aides like National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, Chief of Staff Josh Bolten, White House counselor Dan Bartlett, Deputy Chief of Staff Joe Hagan and White House spokesman Tony Snow.

"The POTUS is on board!" Mr. Bush, wearing a navy blue baseball cap, dark pants and blue button down shirt, yelled to reporters as he climbed the rear steps of the plane. [POTUS is a White House acronym for President of the United States.] Air Force One - piloted by the same colonel who had flown Mr. Bush to Iraq on his first trip to Iraq in November 2003 -- was wheels-up at 9:07 PM Washington time Monday night. It landed at Baghdad International Airport at 4:08 PM Baghdad time Tuesday afternoon.

Read the rest after the jump.

Reuters reports that the President has landed at Baghdad International Airport.

Wall-to-wall television coverage and banner headlines to follow.

(That'll teach Rove to try and upstage the boss.)

The small "h" hurricane got a lot more attention than the big "H" version in Carolina.

CNN's Roberts: "CNN is your hurricane headquarters. We're tracking Alberto. We will let you know where it is, where it's headed, and how strong it may get" ("AC 360," 6/12).

But there was also talk of Iraq along with Pres. Bush's Camp David summit:

MSNBC's Matthews, on the fashion choices: "I don't want to be too critical or cynical, but does the war look any different when you're wearing your L.L. Bean costumes?" ("Hardball," 6/12).

NBC's Gregory: "This was an elaborately planned Iraq summit meant to show that the president is serious about retooling his strategy toward Iraq at a time when Iraqis and Americans are losing patience" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 6/12).

And Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) talked about the leadership race: "There's no more important issue to this country than the war. That's why I got involved in the majority leader's race" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/12).

DON'T FORGET SUNDAY IS FATHER'S DAY

FNC's Bill O'Reilly: "Make Dad happy next Sunday, Father's Day. Please consider the gift shop on BillOReilly.com" ("O'Reilly Factor," 6/12).

STATEMENT OF ROBERT LUSKIN,

ATTORNEY FOR KARL ROVE

Washington, DC -- Robert Luskin, Attorney for Karl Rove today released the following statement:

“On June 12, 2006, Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald formally advised us that he does not anticipate seeking charges against Karl Rove."

“In deference to the pending case, we will not make any further public statements about the subject matter of the investigation. We believe that the Special Counsel's decision should put an end to the baseless speculation about Mr. Rove’s conduct.”

The NYT has it.

Patrick Fitzgerald informed Karl Rove atty Robert Luskin in a letter dated 6/12 that his client won't be charged.

Luskin:

"On June 12, 2006, Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald formally advised us that he does not anticipate seeking charges against Karl Rove."

ARLINGTON, Va -- The Marine Corps says there is no such thing as an ex-Marine. Once a member of The Corps, always a member. Silver Star-winner-turned-VA SEN candidate Jim Webb is such a Marine. And that is his biggest strength. It is also his biggest weakness.

Webb is frank and direct about how he feels, speaking his mind in a deep and deeply serious baritone. But he also comes off as, well, frank and direct in a way that runs the risk of sounding overly strident in an arena that, unlike those Fields of Fire he wrote about, does not reward sharp edges and is anything but black and white.

Both such qualities of the old Marine were on display here today at a late-afternoon, election eve rally that featured another military man who exceled in combat, but struggled (and struggles) with the politics of politics.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman appears on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart tomorrow night.

Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA), fresh of an appearance at the YearlyKos presidential vetting spectacular, wades into the longstanding but largely settled dispute over election shenanigans in Ohio in '04. Vilsack, through his Heartland PAC, urges his supporters to contribute to Ohio Sec/State candidate Jennifer Brunner.

Vilsack writes that "[w]e thought it could never get worse than Florida in 2000 -- but in 2004, Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell ran an election that was flawed in every imaginable way." Vilsack accuses Blackwell of deliberately pulling "out the stops to frustrate voters" and blames him for "confusing decisions that caused literally tens of thousands of provisional ballots to be tossed in the garbage." Vilsack: "The long lines in the rain with two voting machines, while voters in Republican areas breezed through the polls. The threats to reject every voter registration form handed in on paper of the wrong weight."

He concludes: "Well, Blackwell is at it again: manipulating election laws for himself and his Republican allies. This is intolerable -- and that's why it's urgent to get an Ohio secretary of state dedicated to cleaning up Ohio elections and restoring a process that is free, fair, open and honest."

In 2005, Vilsack, to the ire of GOPers, signed an executive order restoring voting rights to felons who completed their sentences. That led Republicans to charge that he was trying to increase the potential pool of Democratic voters in his state. A judge later upheld Vilsack's order.

That's the percentage of Americans who believe a "series of terrorist attacks resulting in mass destruction" will or could happen within their lifetimes, according to a new Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for NBC News and the Sci Fi channel. 51% think those attacks will happen during their lifetimes.

This is an interesting poll for a few reasons. First, we now know that terrorism remains high on people's minds. Second, while people think terror attacks are likely, a significant majority -- 63% -- thinks the country is very or somewhat well prepared for a terrorist incident. The public also feels generally optimistic about preparations made in advance of a possible medical pandemic, with 60% feeling the country is ready.

The poll tested four doomsday scenarios -- a global warming-inspired catastrophe and an asteroid strike, along with terrorism and pandemics -- and how Americans feel about their likelihood. The funniest number to us: 15% of Americans who feel like the U.S. is very or somewhat well prepared for an asteroid strike. Do they know something we don't? [REID WILSON]

Buried in the Boston Globe's examination of Mitt Romney's pre-presidential fundraising operation was this errant sentence about the team that crafted what the Globe calls a "novel" fundraising strategy : "One of the lawyers was Benjamin L. Ginsberg, who was a top lawyer for the Bush-Cheney presidential campaigns in 2000 and 2004."

Has Ginsberg, one of his party's sharpest minds, telegraphed his intention to help Romney in 2008?

Not really.

Ginsberg, a partner at Patton Boggs, has given advice to political action committees associated with no fewer than four aspiring presidential candidates: Sen. George Allen (R-VA), Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) and Gov. George Pataki (R-NY), as well as Romney.

"This is only about 2006," Ginsberg says. He's not chosen a horse for '08.

And the advice itself isn't terribly surprising. As the Globe points out, federal office holders like senators can't raise "soft money" not subject to federal donation limits. Non-federal office holders -- governors -- can raise as much as they want (subject to state limits) for state PACs.

That's why Romney has a federal PAC and four state PACs. It's why Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) of Iowa has a state PAC. Both are heavily involved in raising money for gubernatorial candidates; Romney is the chair of the RGA and Vilsack is the immediate past chairman of the DGA. It's simply easier for them to raise money that way.

The multistate PAC structure won't help Romney accumulate cash for a presidential, though. If that were the goal, his $1.6 million haul over two years doesn't strike his rivals as that impressive a sum. As Romney's team knows, they can't fund a presidential bid off of $50K contributions from friends in Utah. (About 45 percent of all Commonwealth PAC money comes from that state.)

They look enviously at the donor structure set up by Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America, which has raised $4 million from a broadly diverse donor base. McCain has openly courted mega-donors who, if he runs for president, will ply their rolodexes for friends willing to give McCain $2100 a pop. (McCain has a $1 million fundraiser in New York City tonight.)

We think that the real leg up for Romney, aside from his natural Bain Capital/ U.S. Olympic Committee//Mass. tech money base, is his Republican Governors Association perch. It's through the RGA that Romney has an excuse to meet some of the party's biggest bundlers. And by tracking the fundraising promises of these donors for Republican governors, Romney's team can figure out which bundlers have real potential for '08. [MARC AMBINDER]

As we noted below, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton called IA GOV third-place finisher/state Rep. Ed Fallon (D) following the primary there last Tuesday.

Sources with both second-place finisher/ex-Econ Dev Director Mike Blouin (D) and nominee/Sec/State Chet Culver (D) tell us that their candidates also got HRC calls on Wednesday.

Blouin's camp said beyond the junior senator from NY, they also fielded condolence calls from 5 other Dems with an eye on '08. As for Culver, his team tells us that he got a bevy of congratulations wishes from “all those who you’d expect" among the Dem WH aspirants.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

Hotline Futures Market

Today: West Virginia.

GOPers in WV are excited about their chances, particularly in the state legislature. And with a bevy of incumbents seen more as statesmen rather than partisan attackers, the party believes it's poised to pick up a Sen seat somewhere down the line. Dems, meanwhile, believe they have two future candidates for Gov. Their challenge will be to ensure that they don't run against each other. [REID WILSON]

Thanks to a convincing win in the county that happens to be both home to his legislative district and the biggest one in the state, liberal IA state Rep. Ed Fallon (D) scored a somewhat-surprising 26% of the vote in Tuesday's three-way Dem GOV primary. Fallon ran a low-dollar, grass-roots campaign that sounded progressive reform themes similar to those of Fallon's political hero, the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN). His solid showing drew plaudits from many IA political observers and evidently the attention of another person with more than a passing interest in IA Dem primary politics -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The Quad City Times takes a look at Fallon's underdog bid and reveals that one of the post-election calls the Des Moines Dem received came from the junior senator from New York. Fallon told the paper that Clinton “congratulated me on running a fine race and let me know that I can call her if I ever need anything."

Not bad for a guy who, a la Jimmy Carter circa 1975, spent many nights on the campaign trail crashing on the couches and in the guest rooms of his supporters.

Fallon, btw, also received a call from Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) -- somebody who sure wouldn't mind a peek at the thrid-place finisher's coordinator list.

It may seem cheesey, but we're a sucker for favorite biography lists from potential presidential candidates. The question may seem a bit Barbara Walters and the answer sometimes comes across as "too correct," but the list is always revealing. Here's Rudy Giuliani's top five biographies as given to the Wall Street Journal:

1. "Churchill: A Study in Greatness" by Geoffrey Best (Hambledon & London, 2001).
2. "Jefferson and His Time" by Dumas Malone (Little, Brown, 1948-81).
3. "Herndon's Lincoln" by William Henry Herndon and Jesse W. Weik (Belford, Clarke, 1889).
4. "Profiles in Courage" by John F. Kennedy (Harper, 1956).
5. "President Reagan" by Richard Reeves (Simon & Schuster, 2006).

John Edwards leadsHillary Clinton in the first significant poll of IA Dem caucus goers. Vilsack is fourth. More details from the Des Moines Register

BTW, doesn't this make it harder for Clinton to even ponder skipping the caucuses since it would look like she was ducking a fight?

As a Floridian, I hate to even ask this, but is there any chance either party is going to roll the hurricane dice and pick a Florida city as host for their '08 conventions? The Tampa Tribune is very pessimistic about the area's chances of nabbing the GOP event because the convention is scheduled for the first week of September, historically the busiest time of year for hurricanes. [CHUCK TODD]

on money that is. The Boston Globe combs through Mitt Romney's PAC filings and notes how the Commonwealth PAC has figured out how get around the $5,000 federal PAC limits by, well, not being set up as a federal PAC. Instead, Romney has set up a variety of state affiliates which allows him, in some cases, to raise unlimited amounts from individuals. Apparently, just over 100 individuals account for more than $1.6M in contributions with a few individuals giving over $100,000.

Buried in the story may be the most significant name mentioned: Jon Huntsman Jr., the GOP GOV of UT. Huntsman and his family are considered one of the most effective GOP fundraising families in the country. And despite Romney's Utah ties, we had been told that Huntsman wasn't necessarily signed on with Romney yet. This piece makes it seem as if Huntsman is on board the Romney campaign. We're guessing a few other WH '08 GOP hopefuls have a call into the governor to gauge the seriousness of this Romney-Huntsman alliance.

All of the non-federal officeholder candidates could set up similar operations. For instance, both Tom Vilsack and Mark Warner come from states where there are no limits.

In a meeting with reporters yesterday, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich finally dished out some details to his thinking about the '08 campaign.

According to the Washington Post, Gingrich plans to launch a campaign in the fall of '07, if there's a "vacuum." Translation: if there's no frontrunner.

It's an interesting gambit considering that most of the '08 aspirants in both parties are going to crawling all over each other trying to announce first. But as we learned in the '04 WH Dem primary, some of the early frontrunners had burned out by the fall of '03 which gave a candidate like Wesley Clark an opening.

Gingrich is a well-known figure and doesn't need to raise the same amount of cash that a Romney, Allen or even a McCain needs to raise. And Gingrich doesn't doesn't necessarily wear well in a long campaign, but he could be very intriguing in a four-month sprint in Iowa. Both primaries are going to be in need of "new blood" by the fall of '07. On the Dem side, there are two candidates who could employ Newt's fall '07 strategy: Al Gore and Barack Obama.

Every day, we'll highlight one poll number that we think teaches us something new about the political landscape. Today's big number is 36 -- the percentage of Americans who rate economic conditions in the U.S. as excellent or good, according to a Gallup poll out today. That's not huge, but it is up 7% since the last time the question was asked, in mid-May.

Could it be that Americans are getting used to higher gas prices? While 22% of Americans called energy costs the most important problem facing the U.S. in the May poll, just half that number said the same thing in today's survey. Is it possible that the U.S., already mocked in Europe for whining about $3/gallon gas when they're paying $6 or $7, is getting used to the high price of oil?

But that's just one possible answer. Another: Could we be suffering from summer optimism? Pres. Bush's approval ratings are up modestly, and just about every indicator that goes something like "Is ___ getting better?" is up as well. If it were still cold and snowy, would these numbers be changing? [REID WILSON]

Every day, we'll highlight one poll number that we think teaches us something new about the political landscape. We forgot yesterday's, so here's a make-up from yesterday's Hotline. Today's big number is 15. Better put, it's 15 and possibly closing.

CT Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) leads his primary challenger, cable executive Ned Lamont (D), by a margin of just 15 points, 55%-40% in the latest Quinnipiac Univ. poll, after boasting a more than 45% lead in a Q-poll last month. What's worse, the margin is that tight even though only 17% of Dems know enough about Lamont to have formed an opinion (his fav/unfav rating among Dems stands at 11%-6%).

What could be better news for Lieberman, on the other hand, is that those who think he deserves re-election -- a full 61% of respondents -- cite a wide variety of reasons for voting for him. Those who think he doesn't mostly cite his views on Iraq, his conservatism and his closeness with Pres. Bush. Oh, and if Lamont does end up beating Lieberman in the primary and the senator decides to run as an indie, the Q-poll shows him rolling Lamont and GOPer Alan Schlesinger, 56%-18%-8%.

So, concerning to the incumbent on one hand, but intriguing cause for optimism on the other. [REID WILSON]

CongressDaily reports that Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) intends to run for Majority Leader if Democrats win control of the House. His decision would create a fierce leadership battle between Min Whip Steny Hoyer – viewed as the Maj Ldr-in waiting – and Murtha. If such a battle occurred, it would also highlight intra-party divisions on the war in Iraq. Hoyer has taken a more hawkish stance on the Iraq war, while Murtha has become a hero to anti-war Dems (not to mention a nat'l fundraising draw) by supporting withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

What's the Hotline Futures Market? It's our exclusive look at the up-and-comers in every party in every state. You won't a list like this anywhere else. If you've missed a state, check out our archives.

Of all 50 states, none have seen more '03 stars rise and fall than WA. Half of the old guard have taken their shots, and while some came close -- witness the '04 GOP Gov candidate's loss by a margin of barely over 100 votes -- others fell flat. That doesn't phase both parties in WA today, however. GOPers are excited about opportunities in WA 01, WA 02 and WA 03, and Dems continue to lick their chops over WA 08. Also of note, this is the only state in the nation in which both parties mentioned that one of their up-and-comers wanted to be Pres. The highest an Evergreen Stater's ever gotten in Gov't? Ex-Speaker Tom Foley (D) and recently deceased ex-Sec. Transportation/ex-Sen. Brock Adams (D). Full list below.
[REID WILSON]

Rep. Jim Nussle (R) goes up today in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids markets with the first spot of the general election in what promises to be one of the most hotly contested GOV races in the country.

Trying to frame the debate on Des Moines instead of DC, Nussle gets a little help from a figure well-known, and well-liked, by older IA'ns -- 14-year Gov. Bob Ray (R).

Full script of "Ray" below:

NUSSLE: "In the on-going scandal in Des Moines, public officials abandoned the very people government is supposed to help and enriched themselves instead. Iowans deserve better. I'll demand the highest ethical standards and make sure taxpayer dollars are not wasted. And I'll create an independent Inspector General to stop fraud and corruption."
RAY: "Hi -- I'm Bob Ray. To know Jim Nussle is to like him. Jim has the vision and the experience to lead Iowa to greater heights."

MTV celebrated the movies last night but cable was all Zarqawi, all the time. Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Joe Biden were the most visible pols last night. Most of the other guests were retired generals and terrorism experts talking about the mechanics of the operation and al Qaeda's next move.

McCain: "I want to caution if I were the al Qaeda people right now I would be planning a lot of attacks in the next few days and weeks to show that his removal really didn't affect them but it does affect them. It's very important. And, I think it can give us some hope for progress, which I think we have to make and are making" ("LKL," CNN, 6/8).

More McCain: "I could draw you a scenario ... where they have a, quote, 'Tet Offensive' where they mount strikes all over the Iraq in hopes of affecting American public opinion. ... When we lost in Vietnam, we were able to come home. The Vietnamese didn't want to come after us. ... And if we lost or had to leave Iraq and leave it to the tender mercies of Iraqi al Qaeda and others, ... then we will pay a price later on in the region and in the world" ("Situation Room, CNN, 6/8).

McCain: "I don't really change my view that this is going to be very long, and very hard, and very difficult. ... One of the biggest mistakes we've made in this conflict was raising people's expectations so much -- mission accomplished, a few dead enders, stuff happens, last throes -- where we said, boy, the light's at the end of the tunnel and it really wasn't there yet" ("On the Record," FNC, 6/8).

Biden: "If six weeks from now the American people look down the road and see that we're making progress, it will be very positive for the president. But, if six weeks from now or two months from now or three months from now things are as bad as they are today, it will be viewed just like the capture of Saddam was" ("LKL," CNN, 6/8).

More Biden: "The president has a plan how not to lose Iraq completely, but not how not to win. And the Democrats, by and large, are putting forward plans of how to get out and not worried about what's being left behind" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 6/8).

NO REGRETS

CNN's Crowley interviewed Tom DeLay as he prepared to leave office. DeLay: "What am I proudest of? Pushing the conservative cause. Changing the culture of this town. Bringing the conservative world view into the mainstream."

More DeLay: "I don't have any regrets" ("Situation Room," 6/8).

VA SEN GOES "HARDBALL"

"Hardball" went ahead with its scheduled debate between VA SEN Dems Ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb and businessman Harris Miller. The topics were the situation in Iraq, immigration, VA work laws, gay marriage, and whether HRC should run for WH '08.

The candidates were allowed to ask each other one question. Miller asked Webb about his previous support for GOPers. Webb: "One of the things that has been true about my experience having been essentially a Reagan Democrat is there are a lot of people like me who went over to the Republicans, basically on foreign policy issues, national security issues, who are ready to come home because they were never comfortable with the Republican Party on issues of economic justice and social fairness."

Webb asked Miller about his previous career as a lobbyist and how he would fix the system. Miller: "We need to get rid of several things, Jim, number one we need to get rid of the special interest projects, the so-called pork barrel. I've said publicly I would vote against every one of them. I would make an alliance with Republicans to do that, people like John McCain. Secondly, I would prohibit any gifts, any gifts, to Congressmen or Senators. George Allen makes $165,000 a year. He doesn't need someone to buy him lunch. Thirdly, I would try to get public funding for TV campaigns. You know Jim, you and I are out raising money all the time so we can pay for TV time, I think that's one part of politics we don't like. I think all other countries allow their candidates some free TV air time to get their views out there. We need to bring that to this country too" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 6/8). [EMILY GOODIN]

sort of.

The TX Dem Party filed suit today in order to keep Rep. Tom DeLay's (R-TX) name on the TX 22 ballot this November. From the Fort Bend Now web site:

The suit, filed in Travis County 126th District Court, seeks to undo an hours-old declaration by Republican Party Chair Tina Benkiser that DeLay is ineligible to run in the general election.

If DeLay doesn’t serve as the party’s candidate for Congressional District 22, then according to the Texas Election Code, no other candidate is allowed to replace him, the suit says.

Lawyers for Houston’s Riddle & Brazil law firm, which filed the action, obtained a temporary restraining order at about 5:10 p.m. from Judge Darlene Byrne. Sources familiar with the case said the order prevents Benkiser from calling a meeting of the so-called District Executive Committee or taking other measures to replace DeLay as the Republican Party nominee for CD-22.

Benkiser, the only defendant named in the suit, could not be reached for comment Thursday afternoon.

that a GOP incumbent Gov. could say something like this and not pay a price with the national Republican Party. In short, Arnold Schwarzenegger apparently said he would consider endorsing some of the Dem candidates for statewide office. Quick excerpt:

"If I like someone, absolutely," the Republican governor said in response to a reporter's question inside the Veterans of Foreign Wars hall at a campaign event. "Let's see. But right now, I'm just thinking about moving the state forward."

Schwarzenegger, at his campaign stop in Antioch and in events Wednesday in Redding and Chico, praised the bipartisan spirit that he said catapulted a $37 billion infrastructure bond package for transportation, flood protection, education and housing.

The governor has publicly embraced the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, Tom McClintock, but may be less comfortable with some of McClintock's fellow Republicans who won downticket races.

We're not in the camp that believes Sec/State Condi Rice is contemplating a life in GOP politics, let alone a 2008 presidential bid. But events like this, raise even our eyebrows. One doesn't address the Southern Baptist Convention if they don't have even the slightest political bone in their body.

Check out DailyKos' front page of campaign tile ads. There's an attack Arnold tile-sized bannner ad. The link goes here. Now we know that it takes days to gather every yard sign after a losing campaign. But one would think that even a self-funding millionaire candidate would stop spending money AFTER losing the primary. It has been two days, right?

Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) is up with a new radio ad, just 2 days after the primary, demonstrating he fully understands on what kind of terrain he needs to keep this campaign: namely a referendum between liberal vs. conservative values. State Senate Pres. Jon Tester (D) is still a blank slate to most voters, and the Burns campaign intends to fill in those blanks before Tester can.

Full script "Congratulations":

BURNS: "This is Conrad Burns. 'Thank You' Montana -- after all those false, partisan attacks against me -- you've given me a chance to set the record straight. And congratulations to Jon Tester for winning the Democrat primary. Jon is a good man and I look forward to debating him... Because there are real differences between us. On defending marriage -- I voted for the Marriage Protection Amendment. Jon has said he would not support the amendment that protects marriage. On taxes -- I've never voted for a tax increase. Jon has voted for many. On immigration, I voted against amnesty for illegal aliens. Jon refuses to say -- he ducks the tough vote. But 90% of Senate Democrats voted for amnesty -- and these national Democrats now help fund Tester's campaign. And Jon -- a Senator can't vote 'maybe'. I'm Conrad Burns and I approved this message -- to congratulate Jon -- and begin the debate on issues that matter to Montanans. Thanks to Friends of Conrad Burns 2006 for paying for this message."

From Today's Hotline "Spotlight"

What do Phil Angelides, John Garamendi and Jerry Brown have in common? A lot. And that presents some challenges this fall for Dems, in CA and beyond. -- Those 3 Dems are the face of CA's party heading into a tough race against the resurgent Governator and a GOP ticket packed with moderates and conservatives. All three Dems are, as the LA Times put it, "graybeards." Charitably, that means they're seasoned pros. But the Dem ticket led by three white men, in one of the most diverse states, is decidedly left-of-center. Perhaps more ominously, it conjurs up a well-worn image of CA reaching back some 20 years. It allows nat'l GOPers to revive "Governor Moonbeam" jokes and, as GOP strategist Dan Schnur said, mock them as "the revenge of term limits." -- GOP talking points will go something like this: In trend-setting CA, Dems rallied behind a throwback ticket of liberals. If Dems take back the House, look for a similar ticket (led by CA Dems named Pelosi, Waxman, Miller, Stark and Lantos) to prevail. -- This isn't exactly a "bridge to the 21st century" a certain Dem promised in '96. And while everything old is new again, parties struggle when more associated with the past than the future.

Couple of other observations regarding the CA Dem ticket:
-- Angelides' victory is a nightmare for the DGA. Had self-funder Westly won, the DGA wouldn't have to spend dime one in the most expensive state in the union. Now, polls will always show this race (artificially?) close and considering there are some many major Dem donors living in CA, the DGA, led by WH '08 contender Bill Richardson, will have no choice but to play even if every political bone in his body tells him Angelides can't win. Which GOV race will lose out on funding to CA? AL? GA? Where else?
-- What if the CA Dem ticket wins? That's actually got some CA Dem strategists who are in search of the party's rising stars incredibly nervous about this throwback ticket. Assuming these guys dominate the scene for 8 years, there will be no new faces in the CA Dem Party for a VERY, very long time. The party has a real challenge on its hands in CA to figure out how to seem new and seem forward looking. It's going to be interesting to watch. [CHUCK TODD]

We've gathered top Dem react to the Zarqawi capture:

Sen. Min Leader Harry Reid: “This is a good day for the Iraqi people, the U.S military and our intelligence community. Zarqawi was a cold blooded killer who got what he deserved. Yesterday’s mission and its successful outcome are a testament to the courage and skill of all those serving on the front lines.

“There is considerable and difficult work ahead to stabilize Iraq. But with the death of Zarqawi and the naming of key Iraqi security ministers, today is a day to recognize these important achievements.”

House Min Leader Nancy Pelosi: "I salute the efforts of the American troops who have worked tirelessly to track down the evil terrorist al Zarqawi.

"Democrats have long said that 2006 must be a year of significant transition in Iraq, where the Iraqis take responsibility for their security. The death of al Zarqawi and the naming of the Iraqi Defense and Interior Minister should bring us closer to that goal, and hasten the day when American troops can come home."

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton: "As a leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al Zarkawi was responsible for despicable attacks that claimed the lives of too many Iraqis and Americans. I saw firsthand the terrible consequences of Zarqawi's terrorist network when Bill, Chelsea and I visited the hotel ballroom in Amman, Jordan last November where Zarqawi's followers had detonated a bomb at a wedding party, killing and wounding innocent people. We owe our thanks to our men and women in uniform and others in Iraq who have been fighting Zarqawi and other insurgents and who are responsible for today's success.

I hope that this will be a blow to the insurgency in Iraq and affords an opportunity for the new Iraqi government to build on this success and provide greater security and stability for the Iraqi people."

Sen. John Kerry: “Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was a brutal terrorist and his death strikes a blow to al-Qaeda in Iraq. This ruthless thug who abused the true meaning of Islam was an intruder on Iraqi soil and it’s good news that he’s dead. Our troops did an incredible job hunting him down and destroying him, and all of America is proud of their skill and commitment.

“With the end of al-Zarqawi and the confirmation of the final vital cabinet ministries in Iraq’s new government, it’s another sign that it’s time for Iraqis to stand up for Iraq, bring the factions together, end the insurgency, and run their own country. Our troops have done their job in Iraq, and they’ve done it valiantly. It’s time to work with the new Iraqi government to bring our combat troops home by the end of this year.”

Sen. Ted Kennedy: "Zarqawi was a vicious terrorist organizer and murderer, and our troops and the Iraqi security forces both deserve great credit for tracking him down.

We all hope his death marks the beginning of the end of the strength of the foreign terrorist network in Iraq that has caused so much death and destruction."