Hopeless You Say? Never!
Although the most important SEN primary today is on the Dem side in MT, let's not forget the lower-key contests in NJ, NM, and MT. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) faces nuisance opposition from '05 GOV candidate/bipolar patient/group home resident James Kelly (D), while state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) has more credible opposition in financial data analyst John Ginty (R). Both Menendez and Kean should win by comfortable margins, although a particularly strong showing by Kean would put to bed any lingering questions that he might have trouble with his conservative base.
Some would say that the MS and NM primaries are simply contests to select sacrificial lambs against Sens. Jeff Bingaman (D) and Trent Lott (R). Nevertheless, urologist Allen McCulloch (R-NM) has raised at least $230K on his bid so far, and the other two NM GOPers have raised nearly $100K combined. Bingaman won with only 54% in '94, but much more comfortably (62%) in '00. He's already run at least one TV ad, so undoubtedly he's hoping to again win re-election by more than 20 pts instead of fewer than 10. By the way, did you know Bingaman is the most senior junior senator currently serving? (Elected in '82, compared to Pete Domenici in '72). In second place are John Kerry, Tom Harkin, and John Rockefeller, all elected in '84.
In MS, state Rep. Erik Fleming (D) is the only candidate with experience in elected office and the only one who announced more than a day or so before the 3/06 filing deadline, announcing his intentions as far back as 4/05. But even Fleming has raised only $8K to date, comparable to the amounts raised by '90/'94 MS-01 GOP candidate/business consultant Bill Bowlin (D) and floral shop owner/ex-Biloxi mayor's son James O'Keefe (D), and none have any appreciable CoH. With a 4th Dem in the mix, '03 GOV candidate/retiree Catherine Starr (D), the race is likely to go to a 6/27 runoff. The nominee can probably expect no help from nat'l Dems or even the state party. As recently as 1/06 (before Lott announced his intent to run again), MS Dem chair/'88 nominee/ex-Rep. Wayne Dowdy said of Lott: "For the good of the state, I'd rather have his seniority than new blood right now. His seniority is that important to the state." [QUINN McCORD]