Super Midterm Tuesday -- Montana Preview

While there may be more eyes in Washington tuned to the San Diego special election or even the happenings in the most important state in presidential politics (Iowa), the most intriguing nailbiter on Tuesday may, in fact, be taking place in Big Sky country. The MT SEN Dem primary between John Morrison and Jon Tester is apparently thisclose. Reading between the lines of the local coverage and one gets the sense Tester’s the candidate with the momentum. But Morrison's early organizational headstart might end up an advantage on Election Day.

What makes the closeness of this primary so striking is the lack of negativity we’ve seen in the paid media from both Dem campaigns. Sure, there are subtle jabs each is taking at the other’s expense, but it’s no where near as nasty as, say, the IA GOV Dem primary or the Dem contest in CA GOV. The negativity has been aimed solely at GOP incumbent Conrad Burns and it appears both Dem campaigns decided not to dilute that message. That has to make the folks at the DSCC smile because they want this campaign to be all about Burns.

As for which Dem has the better shot; it’s probably a coin flip since it’s clear to us Burns’ negatives are so dominant with the electorate. The local media seems especially tuned into those negatives. Both Tester and Morrison have weaknesses that in a normal election environment we’d expect the Republicans to pick apart. But this isn’t a normal year in MT politics.

Some things to ponder while watching MT’s returns:
-- Does a Tester victory mark the first true netroots-created win? We know there are other races where the Democratic netroots played a major factor, but a Tester victory would give even more legitimacy to the lefty blogosphere’s political power.
-- Burns does have a serious primary foe in state Sen. Bob Keenan. What’s Burns’ magic number? 70% 75%? How many anti-Burns votes in the GOP primary are guaranteed Dem votes in November?
-- How much control will Washington try and exert over Tester if he’s the nominee? The DSCC is probably a bit more satisfied with the team around Morrison, then again the roll-out (or whatever one wants to call it) of Morrison’s personal issues (namely the admitted affair) wasn’t smooth. But are things like that ever rolled out smoothly? What will Schweitzer’s role in this race be? He doesn’t let too many nat’l reporters leave the state without offering up something on-the-record. [CHUCK TODD]