The Big Number: 12
Take 49. Subtract 37. You're left with 12. So is Rep. Mark Green (R-WI), who has to make up 12% in what many think should be a closer race against WI Gov. Jim Doyle (D). In the latest Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll, Doyle leads in most regions of the state, save Green's home turf of Green Bay and the Milwaukee suburbs. And surprisingly, only 48% of WIans think the state's headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to 43% who think it's going the right way.
What's most surprising about these numbers, however, is that they defy the conventional wisdom that WI would be a difficult seat for Dems to hold, thanks to poor economic conditions in the region. We thought the theory of Midwestern Funk had been given ammo earlier this week when MI's Jennifer Granholm (D) trailed challenger Dick DeVos (R) in three separate polls.
Maybe WI's just trending more Dem than neighboring MI? Or is Green seen as a creature of corrupt, lazy DC?[REID WILSON]
Same Poll:
Another finding in this survey, however, is how this head-to-head would play out among residents who have an opinion of both candidates. Among residents who have an opinion of both Mark Green and Jim Doyle, Green actually leads Doyle 52% to 42%. These numbers seem to be at cross-purposes until one examines issues and long-term trends in the state.
It's June. Add in a Travel Contract Scandal that's hounding Doyle (of which Hotline's NOT been covering) and this race will go down to the wire.
Or, is this just a single poll, with every other poll taken since, well, the last Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll in October of last year. It may be that everyone else is wrong . . . but I doubt it. I'd like to see a SurveyUSA or Quinnipiac poll, though.