July 2006 Archives

A Big Break For Harold Ford, Jr.

State Sen. John Ford (D), Rep. Harold Ford, Jr's (D) uncle, will stand trial on federal corruption charges in February, not October as originally planned.

AP has Sen. Ford's attorney saying that they need the additional time for discovery and denying any political motivation for the change. Whatever the reason, the new date removes the prospect of Rep. Ford competing for media attention with his indicted uncle during the final weeks of the election.

Such simultaneous coverage would've made it significantly easier for TN GOPers to play up the "Ford" and "Memphis" angles. The attacks will certainly still come, but the timing will not be what it could've been.

Overlooked: Lazy Sunday

Vanity Fair: No Man Hurt Georgie. No Man!

Vanity Fair's Todd Purdum writes about the relationship between President G.H.W. Bush and G.W. Bush, concluding that the best way to understand them is to understand either one of them. There's not much news in the profile, but it does offer a counterintuitive interpretation of the President, who is generally described as rebelling from his father and reveling in his mother.

“As I have said over and over again, I support the policies of the President without question,” the elder Bush e-mails me from Kennebunkport, politely declining my request for an interview. “But, whenever I try to say that publicly, reporters look for even the hint of a nuance, for a way to drive a wedge between myself and the President. So I have decided, for now, it is better for me not to talk about it … not to you, not to anyone. It does amaze me that what no one seems to understand is that our relationship is about a loving relationship between a very proud father and his son.”

The notion is just a number: 84. That’s 41 plus 43. The whole that sums up the parts. The common characteristics that bind this father and this son, so diff erent in so many ways. The shared traits and talents that helped take them both, by such apparently diff erent approaches, to the pinnacle of power. And the shared shortcomings of substance and style—the stubbornness, the reticence, the ruthless expediency, qualities perhaps best summed up as Bushiness—that by this spring had helped bring the son to the same humiliating historical benchmarks of repudiation that the father had reached: a 31 percent approval rating and a public eager for leadership by anybody else.

For if the father and son’s private relationship with each other remains hard to penetrate, how father and son stand in relationship to each other seems increasingly apparent. They share one creed above all: Bushes know best.

“Forty-three is an absolute split of DNA between his mother and his father,” says Mark McKinnon, his veteran media adviser. “He gets his ‘pop’ from his mother, and his emotional core from his father.”

Distill 41 and 43 into 84 and you get an awkward amalgam of unblushing private enthusiasms and suppressed public impulses. Eighty-four’s code of the road is not so diff erent from Dorothy Walker’s: Never let ’em see you sweat; never show how much it hurts; never tell ’em what you really think, except in elliptical ways; remember that your mother raised you right...

House Race Hotline Update: Divide And Conquer

While Dems have gotten the lion's share of attention over their internal discord, there's division among GOPers on key midterm legislation as the House heads to recess.

Immigration: In the House, most GOPers are talking tough on the need for tighter border security. But there's a simmering debate over whether it's better to reach a resolution before the midterms or use the deadlock to rally conservative voters to the polls.

Minimum Wage: House GOP leaders are trying to tie a minimum wage increase to small businesses' ability to pool health insurance. Dems, not wanting to hand vulnerable GOPers an election-year victory, are whipping against including such a "poison pill." And some conservatives won't support any minimum wage increase. Losing their own vote would be a serious summer setback for GOPers.

Stem Cell Research: The vote to override Pres. Bush's veto largely split GOPers along regional lines. Most Northeastern and suburban members support expanding federal funding, while the majority of the caucus agrees with Bush.

But while the GOP caucus is looking fractured, do Dems have enough discipline to take advantage of the divide? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Today's Blogometer: CT SENometer

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas wrote early 7/31: "Those of you who are tired about reading about the Connecticut Senate race might as well take Daily Kos off your reading list this week. This is the stretch run, and while I'll still talk about other things, expect A LOT of "CT-Sen" tags." The Blogometer has occasionally received criticism for being the "Kosometer" but with just over a week to go 'til primary day, we have to admit to thinking the exact same thing.

Virtually all of the big traffic lefty sites feature daily comments on the race, and once sporadic righty attention has also picked up the pace. The worst (best?) part is that the coming of 8/8 will probably not signal the end of CT SEN infatuation.

Win or lose the postmortems will continue for some time and if cable exec Ned Lamont (D) wins, the race could be the top Blogometer story straight through November.

Today's Blogometer

The Type Of Thing You'd Think Would Be In His Briefing Notes...

From the White House pool report chronicling President Bush's visit to the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, FL. Mr. Mayfield is Max Mayfield, the center's director.

"POTUS tried to show his knowledge of hurricane season by suggesting the height of it would begin next week and run through mid-September. The officials gently corrected him. “Actually, mid-October,’’ Mr. Mayfield said."

Another amusing moment:

He spoke with . . . a scientist who recently wrote a paper analyzing worldwide hurricane patterns and whether they are linked to global warming. The scientist – Christopher Landsea, a phd and the science and operations officer at the center – told POTUS there was ‘’not a consensus’’ linking the two. (Yes, a hurricane scientist named Landsea) POTUS replied, “There is a consensus you’re doing good work.”

Boehner Urges His Troops To Recognize Voter Anxiety

As they wrapped up summer's work on Saturday morning Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) left his Republican conference with some parting thoughts about the August recess.

Quoting legendary OSU football coach Woody Hayes, Boehner likens the past few months to a steady stream of "three yards and a cloud of dist." The grind has provided a "vital backstop" against "misguided Democrat policies."

But Americans, he acknowledges, are anxious.

Boehner: "Despite the continued growth of our economy, however, too many American families continue to feel anxiety about the high cost of living. Our economic engine is firing on all cylinders, but too many American families are still feeling the pinch of rising health care costs, high gas prices, steep college tuition rates, and uncertainty about their retirement savings."

"International threats" are also contributing.

So the GOP's mission in August is "to engage our constituents in a dialogue about their hopes and anxieties and our majority's efforts to address them."

More Boehner: "Massive challenges lie ahead for our nation, domestically and internationally - challenges that will require bold Republican leadership in the years ahead. These challenges will require us to throw deep. Our willingness to change the congressional earmarking practice is a glimpse of what our majority is capable of doing when we identify a big goal, and set out to achieve it - but only a glimpse. The true challenges before us are national and societal challenges; not merely institutional ones."

The full memo can be found after the jump.

Continue reading "Boehner Urges His Troops To Recognize Voter Anxiety" »

The Political Week Ahead

The Senate will try to tackle the minimum wage increase coupled with the death/estate/inheritance tax cap and tax extenders.... and then pension reform and Defense Department appropriations. The House is in recess; Speaker Hastert plans five campaign appearances for Republicans.

We could learn today whether Tom DeLay loses his appeal to remove his name from the Texas 22 congressional ballot. We'll almost certainly know by mid-August.

August 3: Primary elections in Tennessee, where a crowded field in TN 01 will be winnowed and DC Republicans hope Bob Corker wins the Senate primary. Also worth watching: on 8/1, challenges to three creationism-supporting members on the Kansas state board of education.

The RNC's summer meeting kicks off in ('08 convention frontrunner city) Minneapolis on August 2. Journalists: at this moment, the political briefing by White House political director Sara Taylor is OPEN to the press.

A political week for POTUS. He starts off in Miami; speaks on the economy. He gets a physical on Tuesday. On Wednesday, he raises money for Ken Blackwell (no cameras!) in Ohio. He does some border tourin' on Thursday in Texas, and then RONS in Crawford for the weekend.

Next weekend, Gov. Mike Huckabee will be the belle of South Carolina. He's hosting the NGA meeting in Charleston (which will feature other governors like Pataki and Romney) and he'll manage to squeeze in a speech about defending heterosexual marriage.

Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) hits the trifecta next weekend: He stops in NH and IA, and attends the NGA conference in SC, and then he delivers what aides bill as a major speech on energy in DC.

The Hotline Daily Troika: SC, IA, NH

New York Times Endorses Lamont

In Adam Nagourney's story, news that the Times' editorial board has endorsed Ned Lamont.

[The New York Times, in an editorial published on Sunday, endorsed Mr. Lamont over Mr. Lieberman, arguing that the senator had offered the nation a “warped version of bipartisanship” in his dealings with President Bush on national security.]

WHAT'S BREWING

House Rushes To Pass Minimum Wage...Estate/Death Tax Relief

Following a 45-minute long members only meeting, the House Republican Conference has produced a catch-all minimum-wage/estate/death tax/'03 tax cut extender bill.

The minimum wage would be extended to $7.25 by June 1 of 2009.

The bill doesn't contain the sweetener for business -- association health plans.

It does include a tipped wage provision that allows some employers to apply tips to the higher wage due employees.

The exclusion for estates, btw, is $5M.

They're debating it tonight and maybe into tomorrow, along with that big pension reform bill we try to follow.

McGovern Creates Council Of Elders

McGovern organizes elders' council to offer advice

By CHUCK RAASCH GNS Political Writer WASHINGTON - Saying Americans should listen more to their elders, former South Dakota Sen. George McGovern is forming a bipartisan council of seniors to offer advice on issues facing the country.

McGovern, 84, said his ``Council of Elders'' includes ex-senators and members of Congress, as well as professors, activists, ex-diplomats and former union officials. As of Friday, about three dozen people had signed on, and they span the ideological spectrum - from conservatives Rep. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., who is retiring from Congress, and ex-Sen. Alan Simpson of Wyoming to liberal ex-Sens. Thomas Eagleton of Missouri and John Culver of Iowa. Eagleton was briefly McGovern's vice presidential running mate in 1972 before it was disclosed Eagleton had undergone treatment for depression and exhaustion.

McGovern's Council of Elders will also include former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, who served during the Vietnam War, and former Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall, who served under Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.

Civil rights activist and current Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., has also agreed to join, McGovern said, as has feminist Gloria Steinem; retired Springfield, Mo., banker and author Todd Parnell; former United Autoworkers President Douglas Fraser; and Children's Defense Fund President Marian Wright Edelman.

Clinton Turns To An Old Friend For Microtargeting Advice

Sen. Hillary Clinton is looking for new ways to reach out to white working and middle class voters – especially those who live in exurbs and rural areas. According to several Democratic sources and others on the periphery of Clinton's team, an old, press-shy face is part of her the inner circle: marketing whiz Roy Spence, a Clinton family confidant since the 1970s.

"She trusts him," says another long-time friend of both Clintons. Spence was her consultant-of-choice in 1992 and informally advised with the White House during good times and bad.

Spence is the CEO of GSD and M, based in Austin, Texas and the creative genius behind ad campaigns for clients as diverse as BMW and Southwest Airlines. He's famous for helping Wal-Mart brand itself as a quality, low-cost powerhouse. He's also a specialist in marketing to Americans living in the heartland. As he told the New York Times, a brand must be "a sacred promise of what you stand for."

Spence did not answer e-mail and telephone messages left for him. He prefers to communicate his thoughts to Clinton via memo, although the two talk often. Clinton adviser Howard Wolfson said Clinton is focused on her Senate re-election campaign and that Spence is nothing more than a long-time family friend. [MARC AMBINDER]

Hotline TV Gets Vulnerable

In this week's episode:

Dems need six seats to take back the Senate. Can they get it this year, or is it all a myth? New polls in TN and AZ don't help DSCC staffers sleep at night.

It's our mammoth battle for the House special, and we begin with the top endangered Dems around the country.

The special continues, and we're ranking the top endangered GOPers this year. DCCC, this is for you.

We have the deepest aloha for bandwagon jumping, which we do in HI, FL, OK and MN.

And, of course, the fastest 2 minutes in politics.

Quote Of The Day

"We're for staying the course in Iraq and the war on terror."

-- Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist on the GOP's '06 nat'l security message, "Hannity and Colmes," FNC, 7/27

The Money Chase: Behind The Numbers

Figuring out which party has more resources to throw at the midterm elections is not as easy as adding up a few numbers.

Combining the $11.2 million in state party federal cash with the $10.6 million banked between the three GOP committees -- the RNC, NRCC and NRSC -- the Republican Party has about $22M more to spend on federal races. Also: groups like Progress for America and Americans for Job Security and the NRA will work at the margins mainly for Republicans. In fact, Republican 527s have outspent Democratic 527s by more than $9M this cycle.

However --

-- the Democratic House and Senate campaign committees are fundraising more successfully th
an ever before -- and that the cash on hand advatange will undoubtedly help them in October.

-- Labor money and foot soldiers, and assorted Dem 527s and 501(c)3 work will also boost the Democrats at the margin -- though in several of the most competitive House races, labor favors the Republican.

Looking at states, at federal races and at 527s, here are some other trends:

IN THE STATES

In April, the Hotline looked at cash on hand totals from all 100 state Democratic and Republican Parties. We found that the Republican parties had a net cash on hand advantage of $10.2 million. Today, the GOP state party advantage is approx. $11.2 million. Overall, Republican state parties outraised their Dem counterparts by 3 to 2.

However -- Democrats have a CoH advantage in several important states:

-- AZ, (approx. $400K)
-- IA (approx. $200K)
-- IL (approx. $1M)
--MN (approx $90K)
--MO (approx $50K)
--MT (approx $30K)
--NE (approx $100K)

Most of the Republican padding comes from states where the GOP has a lopsided advantage: FL, SD, MI, OH and PA. [MARC AMBINDER]

Continue reading "The Money Chase: Behind The Numbers" »

House Race Hotline Update: TN 01 Up For Grabs

The 13-candidate TN 01 GOP primary pits candidates with executive and legislative experience against a self-funding businessman who has blanketed the local airwaves with ads.

If experience matters, state Rep. David Davis is well-positioned, serving in the state House for 4 terms. There he's taken the lead on social issues, earning him strong support from pro-life groups.

Richard Venable is the mayor of Sullivan Co., the CD's population center. He's the only candidate from the county, and hopes to rack up his margin of victory there.

Businessman Richard Roberts has spent over $800K to boost his name ID. He's used much of it to air three slickly-produced TV ads highlighting his support of Pres. Bush's Iraq policy.

The wild card could be Johnson City vice-mayor/physician Phil Roe, who's touting himself as the outsider in the race. Roe spent the second-most money in the 2ndQ, and has a loyal, local following. If history's any measure, the GOP winner's a near-lock to hold the seat. No Dem has won here in over 100 years.
[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Going Mobile

Mobile Voter, a San Francisco based not-for-profit, has started a voter registration drive program through text messaging called Txtvoter. The program, which is intended to register younger voters, was done with grants from GWU’s Young Voter Strategies and the Pew Charitable Trust. Oh yeah, and it’s pretty much free.

Here’s how it works: Mobile phone users can text the word “voter” to short code address 75444 and answer a series of questions via text message to complete the voter application process. A few weeks later, a completed voter registration form arrives at their doorstep. The user just needs to sign it, date it and send it back. Mobile Voter, for better or worse, keeps track of the mobile user every step of the way. If they see you haven’t finished the registration process, they will send you a text message reminder. They even have “planet coding” on the snail mail envelopes to see when your voter registration is sent back in the mail. The final step? Txtvoter will send you an email on Election Day remind you to vote and where your precinct location is.

Alright, so the cellular version of big brother might be watching -- and texting -- you. So here’s where a campaign’s new cheap voter registration drive can happen: The site’s newest feature lets users create accounts in which users can invite others to register to vote. For example, if you text the word “Hotline” to the short code, Txtvoter would take care of the registration, and we would be able to keep track of your progress. Txtvoter gives away recruits’ registration information (name, address and if they register online, email) for free if they’re going to individuals, c(3)’s and other non-profits who use the information in a non-partisan way. But political campaigns can get the same info for market price – around 10 cents a contact -- according to a company spokesperson.

It doesn’t seem like a practical solution for large-scale campaigns, for example anything statewide. But for races on the cheap, for example local and statehouse races, it’s a pretty good deal for a youth GOTV effort [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

The Hotline Daily Troika: IA, NH and SC

Hotline After Dark -- A Steele Trap

Coverage on the Middle East continues with most cable nets leading with the release of a new al Qaeda tape, in which second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri voices support for Hezbollah.

MSNBC's Unger: "Al Qaeda's call to arms. Osama's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri's message from beyond, again. This time, urging Muslims to join the fight in Lebanon" ("Countdown," 7/27).

FNC's Hannity, on al-Zawahiri: "He's calling on Muslims around the world to wage a holy war against Israel. Now, his declaration of war came in the form of another videotape aired on the Arabic Al-Jazeera network, but this is hardly the first time Islamic radicals have called for war against the West" ("Hannity & Colmes," 7/27).

CNN's Bergen, on the relationship between al Qaeda and Hezbollah: "The leader of Hezbollah, Nasrallah, condemned the 9/11 attacks. So, you know, it's kind of a mixed picture. They have had an historical connection. There has been a distance in recent years. Now Ayman Al-Zawahri is extending this fig leaf" ("AC 360," 7/27).

STEELE-ING THE SHOW

There was also talk of MD SEN candidate Michael Steele (R) making critical remarks about Pres. Bush at a recent luncheon. Steele now he says he was only kidding, and that Bush is his "homeboy."

Washington Post's Milbank, on Steele: "I don't understand why he's backpedaling at all. It seemed to me he should have been on the record in the first place. Good politics when you're in the state of Maryland, very blue, Democratic state to diss the president and the party when they're down ... in the polls. So, I think if Steele was going to be more of a man of steel, he would have won more votes by just sticking to what he said."

More Milbank: "I think, basically he and a lot of others who want to follow the McCain strategy. When you look at him ... conservative across the board with Bush on stem cells, flag burning amendment, gay marriage amendment, but what he's doing is rhetorically differentiating himself, and that's what McCain does. And reporters love heretics. You like a guy when he's, sort of, sounds like he's being disloyal to his party. So, here he can be perfectly consistent on the ideology, but a lot of people, democratic voters, are going to say oh, I think he's one of us" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/27). [KATHERINE LEHR]

Burns Apologizes For Firefighter Criticism

The Montana Senator is apologizing for telling Montana firefighters that they've done a "poor job" at containing wildfires in the state.

Tonight, a Statement From Conrad Burns

“In retrospect, I wish I had chosen my words more carefully. My criticism of the way in which the fire was handled should not have been directed at those who were working hard to put it out. Without a doubt firefighters do the hard, tough job of battling one of Mother Nature’s toughest beasts. I have nothing but admiration for them and the work they do.

My frustration came from meeting with landowners who were critical of the way the fire was handled. Whatever the reason, I should have simply thanked those who worked hard to put out the fire.

I have since addressed my concerns to the proper officials about the way in which fires are handled. Please accept my apology for any hard feelings that my comments may have caused. I have the utmost respect for the job firefighters have done in Montana.”

A New Direction? (BTW: Check Out Kolbe On The GOP Leadership)

Is this cycle really going to be different than the last couple? Can Dems get -- and stay -- on the same page? Will simmering Republican divisions spill over onto the electoral map? A snapshot of the two parties offered via two Capitol Hill press conferences today would indicate the potential for all three.

House Min Leader Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Min Leader Harry Reid, DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel and DSCC chair Chuck Schumer led off, rolling out their six-pronged "New Directon" agenda for print reporters at the DSCC. Nat'l and homeland security, energy independence, health care, jobs, college access and retirement security will be on the tips of every Dem tounge going into the fall, these leaders said.

And though they used seemingly every other cliche besides this one, the singular message above and beyond these bullet points will be, "change vs. more of the same."

Dem candidates will be "agents of change" running against the GOP "status quo," said Emanuel. The American people are "tired of stay the course," observed Schumer. Dems will "chart a new direction," drove home Pelosi. Americans have "had enough of this president and this Congress," declared Reid.

Perhaps most important, Schumer pointed out where his candidates were actually embracing their "6 for '06" theme. Ford with Nat'l Security on the Dubai ports in TN, Casey with retirement security on opposing Social Security privatization in NJ, McCaskill with health care on supporting stem cell research in MO, etc.

Down 1st Street an hour later, four House GOPers gathered to trumpet five of their own policy priorities. Representing the moderate Republican Main St. Partnership group, Rep's Tom Davis (VA), Sherwood Boehlert (NY), Jim Kolbe (AZ) and Jim Gerlach (PA) outlined the "Promise For America." It includes such familiar items as nat'l and homeland security, energy independence, health care and retirement security, jobs, and education opportunities. The Main St. folks didn't have the exact same six agenda items as the Dems, however --- they included retirement security and health care in the same bullet.

Though their message was much the same as the Dems, Republicans revealed their own internal differences as soon as they took questions. Asked about a minimum wage increase, Davis was quick to point out that the four members were not in agreement on the topic. He and Kolbe, both opponents of the increase, said little, while Boehlert, a longtime champion of raising the wage, gleefully predicted it would pass in short order.

Even more contentious was the matter of immigration. "The real question of the session is whether we hype this issue and continue to hype this issue," said Kolbe, a lame duck from a border district. "What then, do we just dump it or do we get something done?" Told that he sounded as though such "hyping" would portend bad things politically, Kolbe quickly responded that he was not trying to say that, he was saying that. "There will be electoral consequences if we hype this issue as we have been and then don't follow up with action," he predicted. And it will be hard for voters "not to point fingers at" the party that controls the WH, House and Senate if there isn't action. Sensing an off-message moment, Boehlert interjected, "This group doesn't play the blame game." Kolbe seemed to get the hint when, asked if GOP leaders had the will to push through a bill, said, "I'll pass on that."

Gerlach, who has run ads in his Philadelphia-area district touting his opposition the guest worker language included in the Senate bill and backed by Pres Bush, didn't seem in any hurry to act on the issue, however. Asked if he would rather have a bill or an issue, Gerlach, facing perhaps the toughest race of any House incumbent in the country, said he wanted "a good bill," not a "bad bill." His constituents don't want a measure that rewards those who "jump ahead in line," he said. He'd like to "keep working the issue" and hopes "folks come together."

Four non-leadership House members promoting the agenda of just one wing of the party is much different, of course, than national party leaders outlining their campaign message.

However -- that Republicans are split on two very political issues even within this one wing bodes poorly. And that they are split so publicly, and beyond the confines of one press conference, even more so. [JONATHAN MARTIN and MARC AMBINDER]

Hotline/Diageo Poll: Seeking John Generic

The Dems' advantage shrinks considerably when voters are asked specifically whether the country would fare better under a Dem-controlled Congress. Two reasons for disparity? 1) Congress as a whole remains deeply disliked, so voters see little good coming from either party. 2) Voters, by almost 3-1, say the country's headed in the wrong direction; They're not exactly in an optimistic mood (although they feel much better about life in their own backyard).

One not-insignificant bright spot for GOPers: A big jump in their voters' level of interest in the 11/06 midterms, and an apparent drop in Dem interest. But the bottom line: It's a nat'l election, being fought on nat'l issues. Bush and Iraq will weigh heavily on voters' minds. And that alone presents an uphill climb for the GOP.

Conducted 7/20-23; surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/27). ^ denotes half sample. Party ID breakdown: 38%D, 35%R, 27%I/O.

Here's a graphical breakdown of all the results.

Looks Like Romney Is Going To Iowa After All...

The Iowa Republican Party went ahead and sent out a formal press release about Gov. Mitt Romney's appearance at their Chairman's Dinner this weekend. Republicans say they have no reason to believe that Romney won't show up. His office refused to talk about his weekend schedule due to the ongoing Big Dig crisis. But it looks as if the decision has been made.

***MEDIA ADVISORY***

EVENT DATE: Saturday, July 9th at 7:00 p.m.

Contact: Sarah Sauber,

GOVERNOR ROMNEY HEADLINES ANNUAL CHAIRMAN’S DINNER

The Republican Party of Iowa will hold their Annual Chairman’s Dinner at Crowne Plaza in Cedar Rapids on Saturday, July 29 at 7:00 p.m.

The keynote speaker will be Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the Dinner Chair is Iowa Republican Federation of Women Chair, Cedar Rapids Businesswoman Kathy Pearson. Also speaking are Congressman Jim Leach and RPI Chairman Ray Hoffmann.

WHO: Gov. Mitt Romney
Ray Hoffmann, RPI Chairman

Kathy Pearson, Dinner Chair

Congressman Jim Leach

WHAT: RPI Annual Chairman’s Dinner

WHEN: Saturday, July 28 at 7:00 p.m.

NOTE: Room available at 5:30 p.m. for pre-set

WHERE: Crowne Plaza

350 1st Ave. NE
Cedar Rapids, Iowa

###

Politiscope: A Rude Homecoming

Dozens of vulnerable incumbents in Congress -- most of them Republicans, but some Democrats -- have watched their re-election prospects dwindle this summer as they devoted themselves to the arduous task of legislating. That's about to change amid the deceptive silence of August, as candidates enter the crucial weeks leading up to Labor Day, at which point, if they haven't made a compelling case to voters, it may be too late to try.

Incumbents are going home armed with talking points of legislative efforts Congress has undertaken this year. The list is long, even if the results are few: stem-cell research funding; illegal immigration; ethics; same-sex marriage; abortion rights; minimum wage; gas prices; global warming; taxes and the budget; Voting Rights Act; flag burning

Read Politiscope.

Hotline After Dark: highlights of the nightly chat shows

The Daily Troika: morning updates from IA, NH and SC

The Futures Market: the rising stars of politics, state-by-state

The Weekender: : what's on the minds of Hotline writers?

Buzz Columns : Weekly columns from Hotline editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio.

The Blogometer:: We distill the essence of the political blogosphere's zeitgeist -- every day.

The Big Number: : the poll of the day.

Consultant's Corner : the latest trends in political consulting.

House Race Hotline Updates : dispatches and analysis of the hottest House races.

Election Nights: : real-time results and instant analysis of every major primary -- and we'll be live all fall.

The Hotline's Race Rankings : Get an early line on WH 2008, as well as the latest rankings, commentary and analysis on all '06 Senate, House and governor races.

Get Yer August Field Hearings. A Dollar A Dozen...

This means that GOP staffers will have to work in August...

House Republicans Announce August Field Hearings on Border Security

Nineteen Hearings to Occur in Twelve States

July 27, 2006

House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) and House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) today announced the list of border security field hearings that will take place in the month of August. Eight House committees will be holding nineteen hearings that will take place in twelve different states.

The list of hearings and their topics is below

JUDICIARY COMMITTEE

San Diego, CA on August 2nd --- How do illegal immigrants impact the costs of healthcare, local education, and other social services, and would these costs increase under Reid-Kennedy immigration bill?

El Paso, TX on August 17th --- What is the financial impact of illegal immigration on communities along the U. S. border, and could these costs rise under the Reid-Kennedy bill? What is the impact on efforts to extend a border security fence under the Reid-Kennedy bill's requirements regarding consultation with the Mexican Government? Will efforts to limit illegal immigration be inhibited by the Reid-Kennedy bill's provisions relating to local law enforcement?

Concord, NH on August 24th --- How do illegal immigrants impact the costs of healthcare, local education, and other social services, and would these costs increase under Reid-Kennedy immigration bill? What is the societal impact of the Reid-Kennedy bill's grant of amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants?

Upstate New York on August 25th --- What are the current risks of terrorists, narcotics smugglers, and human traffickers infiltrating the United States, and what role do secure identification documents play in limiting those risks? Does the Reid-Kennedy bill undermine efforts to limit those risks?

Continue reading "Get Yer August Field Hearings. A Dollar A Dozen..." »

This Sounds Interesting...

An e-mail from the Maryland Democratic Party:

Maryland Democratic Party Obtained Secret Email Between Steele Campaign and Washington Post That Discussed Quotes BEFORE Story Was Published

Steele LIED THROUGH HIS TEETH About “Off the Record” Interview; Whole Incident is Naked Political Stunt

TODAY Maryland Democratic Party Chair Terry Lierman to Release Secret Email at 2pm Press Conference in Baltimore

Who: Maryland Democratic Party Chair Terry Lierman

What: Lierman releases Steele campaign email to Washington Post revealing that Steele knew the “anonymous” story would be published and the campaign approved the use of those quotes in advance. This proves Steele and his campaign lied and that the whole incident has been a pre-meditated political stunt.

When: 2pm TODAY

Where: On top of Federal Hill, Federal Hill Park, Baltimore

The Hotline Daily Troika: NH, IA and SC

Hotline After Dark -- Rome Was Built In 2 Days, Right?

ROME WASN'T BUILT IN ONE DAY

Talk of the situation in the Middle East continued on the cable nets, focusing on the international conference in Rome that Sec/State Condoleezza Rice attended.

NBC's Mitchell: "After struggling for hours, diplomats realized that there is going to be no immediate end to this conflict, no easy diplomatic resolution. They did agree there needs to be a ceasefire urgently, there needs to be an international military force to back that up, and to help support the Lebanese government to control the Hezbollah militia" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/26).

CNN's J. King: "They tried for the grand deal, if you will, trying to get it all done in one big day in Rome. ... That didn't work. So, now they have to do this piece by piece, day at a time. ... Very tough diplomacy ahead" ("AC 360," 7/26).

Wall Street Journal's N. King: "In a kind of contorted way, this is really a success for the Bush administration, because the last thing that they actually want is a cease-fire, so they're in this sort of Orwellian position of trying to enhance the humanitarian condition of the Lebanese people by pushing Israel to open up humanitarian corridors."

More N. King: "The real mystery in all of this, is how is Hezbollah going to be somehow or another taken out of the equation? And nobody is really coming up with an explanation for that" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 7/26).

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), on the U.S.' refusal to talk with Syria: "We need to talk to Syria. Now, we have diplomatic relations with Syria. They control Hezbollah. And what the argument should be to Syria is, unless you control Hezbollah, you disarm them, or find a way that they're disarmed, there's going to be international sanctions on you. There's going to be a denial of visas, there's going to be freezing of your assets. But you can only do that by persuading an international coalitions to make it happen. So what this means is needed the most is a permanent American presence. ... You need constant diplomacy, you just can't do it in one meeting in Rome" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/26).

AT A LOSS FOR WORDS?

There was also analysis on Iraqi PM Jawad al-Maliki's address to Congress.

Newsweek's Fineman, on Maliki not voicing a pro-Israeli stance in his speech: "It was impossible for Maliki to do it, and that is one of the reasons George Bush ... has looked like a defeated man. I have never seen him look like this" ("Harball," MSNBC, 7/26).

FNC's Garrett, on the Dems' reaction: "Many Democrats today after this speech said look, there was a lot of lofty rhetoric. We appreciate the commitment to human rights, but where were the specifics on the ground to talk us and tell us about when the Iraqis are going to take control of this country and when U.S. troops can take control?" ("O'Reilly Factor," 7/26). [KATHERINE LEHR]

White House '08 Rankings: Summer Stasis?

The top 10 potential candidates are treading water in this round of rankings, with most still in the same spots they held in June.

But that doesn't mean the White House 2008 stage is quiet: Prospectives are busy making endorsements (John McCain and Rudy Giuliani), staying positive (John Edwards), going negative (Newt Gingrich), playing CEO (Mitt Romney) and speaking at a steak fry that's more important than it seems (Barack Obama).

These rankings are based on a number of factors, including: organization, money, buzz and polling. The two candidates in our two top spots are the candidates who are doing well in all four attributes.

White House '08 Rankings

Calendar Confusion: What's Set In Stone Really Isn't.

Republicans in South Carolina and Nevada are closely looking at the possibility of holding their delegate contests on the same January day that the Democrats hold theirs.

The problem for both is that the Republican National Committee's rules are set in stone. The pre-approved RNC window opens on February 5, 2008. Any state selecting national convention delegates before that date risks losing half of its delegation -- and in some scenarios, even more.

But what about Iowa and New Hampshire?

Well, Iowa's precinct caucuses select delegates to county conventions, which select delegates to congressional district conventions, which, in turn, select delegates to the national convention. Those congressional district conventions are held after the window opens, allowing Iowa to begin its process earlier. Still, the RNC hasn't formally signed off on the Iowa GOP's plan. And New Hampshire's primary is a primary. Delegates are chosen that day -- in January -- before the window opens.

Paul Adams, the chair of Nevada's GOP, said he'd like to wait until after November to decide what to do about caucuses. Republican state parties have until the end of September of 2007 to submit their delegate selection plans to the RNC's general counsel.

RNC officials we've spoken to stress that no state's plan is final until the RNC approves it.

And if a state wants to buck the RNC and schedule its contests before the window, they'll probably lose some of their delegates. Nevada's caucuses, for both Democrats and Republicans, are likely to follow the multi-tiered delegate selection process that Iowa has used and that the RNC has accepted in previous cycles as legitimate.

A further twist: let's assume that the '08 Republican nominee is chosen well in advance of the RNC convention. States like New Hampshire probably are counting on the good graces of the party's rules committee (and the nominee) not to penalize them in the end. It's a gamble.

And then there's West Virginia. The Republican Party there is going to hold an e-Primary that really begins in 2007, when potential presidential candidates submit slates of delegates to be voted on. Technically, those delegates are awarded after the window opens, but the process itself starts way early.

Some Democrats worry that state Dem parties will risk losing their delegates to move up their calendars. Even NH's Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, is cooling his guns because he assumes that other states will try to maneuver around Nevada. He told the Lawrence Eagle Tribune yesterday that he's "not going to set the date now. It's more likely there is going to be another state or more that is going to react to this and move up."

And the state chairman of AL's Dem party is promising a floor fight at the DNC meeting in Chicago. Alabama and Arizona were finalists for the caucus and primary, respectively.

Add to all of this movements in state legislatures in CA and FL (among other states) to move their delegate events to the first or second weeks of February.

The last two primary seasons lasted only through the beginning of March -- really, through the middle of February -- even with competitive fields.

BTW: This RedState diarist has a nice look at which states want to move, and when. [MARC AMBINDER]

On The Trail: '08 Isn't Enough

Now Only A Question Of When

Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-OH) 7/25 p.m. gave a letter signed by 48 House GOPers to Maj Leader John Boehner requesting a vote on the minimum wage before the Congress breaks for summer recess at the end of the week. LaTourette, along with Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ), spearheaded a similar effort 7/12, picking up 25 mostly moderate Northeast/Midwest GOPers to help plead their case. House GOP leaders have instead brought up votes aimed at firing up their conservative base over the past 2 weeks.

Opposition to a minimum wage vote is softening, however. Boehner and Maj Whip Roy Blunt have both made public statements indicating that they are resigned to the effort. And now it seems that support for the increase is coming not just from the usual band of pro-labor GOPers. New to LaTourette's letter are such members as: Rep's Mike Bilirakis (FL), Mark Foley (FL), Paul Gillmor (OH) David Hobson (OH), Ted Poe (TX), Mike Simpson (ID), Pat Tiberi (OH), Frank Wolf (VA) and Bill Young (FL). Such a mix of veteran, conservative and politically safe members indicates that the push to increase the minimum wage has gained strength in the GOP Conference and a vote may be inevitable.

But will there be floor action before the break? "It's not expected to come up at this point," said a senior House aide. Or, as another leadership staffer succinctly put it, "Before November? Yes. Before August? Probably not." One aide to a rank-and-file House GOPer said Boehner has been taking the temperature of the Conference, trying to determine how to score the most political gain out of the increase. The question is whether to do it now so that members can crow about it back home the rest of the summer or wait until the fall when the public is more attuned to the elections.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

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McCain's Hired A Web Consultant

GOP consultant Patrick Hynes and his New Media Strategics has been retained by Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America to develop the Senator's web presence and further his "powerful reform agenda."

Hynes, the author of a new book that defends the religious right, is better known to the world as a leading Ankle Biting Pundit.

In a statement on his company's website, Hynes says “It is an honor to work with Sen. John McCain to bring New Media tools to the cause of reform. With the power of the New Media, Straight Talk America’s reform agenda will reach more people and energize more activists than ever before.”

Some conservative bloggers are upset that Hynes apparently didn't disclose his work for McCain earlier. Hynes explains himself here.

House Race Hotline Update: Moving On Up?

MoveOn.org's intervention in several races seems to be paying off -- for now. The liberal group aired ads alleging that members were caught "red-handed" taking donations from defense contractors and supporting big oil companies. They targeted second-tier races against Reps. Thelma Drake (R-VA 02), Chris Chocola (R-IN 02), Nancy Johnson (R-CT 05) and Deborah Pryce (R-OH 15).

-- Polls suggest those races have tightened. Chocola is now trailing '04 nominee Joe Donnelly (D) in two recently-released polls. Greenberg Research also released polling indicating Drake and Johnson's negatives sharply increased after the ad blitz.

-- Still, the populist ads could backfire. Several TV stations pulled them. Will their message play in conservative-leaning CDs like VA 02, with its sizable military presence?

-- The DCCC is hoping these third-party attacks will soften up the incumbents before the campaigns heat up. If the polling's right, it would be an encouraging sign for Dems. But there's always a danger that a close, public association with MoveOn.org could hurt more than help. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Hotline Daily Troika: IA, NH and SC

Hotline After Dark -- UN-dignified?

The situation in the Middle East continued to dominate the cable nets' coverage, mainly focusing on UN Sec. Gen. Kofi Annan's reaction to two U.N. observers being killed in Lebanon by an Israeli airstrike.

Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Dan Gillerman: "To use Kofi Annan's own words, I am shocked and deeply distressed by this deliberate targeting of Israel. I think that the statement made by the secretary-general was very unworthy of such a seasoned diplomat. I think it was premature, hasty, deplorable, and irresponsible. And I certainly hope that, after the secretary-general has had a good night's sleep in Rome, he may wake up and realize that he made a mistake, and apologize for those very unfortunate words" ("Situation Room," CNN, 7/25).

Sen. George Allen (R-VA): "Kofi Annan's statements I think are unduly harsh. It would be nice if the United Nations actually showed such resolve and anger and determination in actually enforcing Security Council Resolution 1559, which has as its purpose the removal of Hezbollah or disarming the militias along the Israeli-Lebanon border" ("LKL," CNN, 7/25).

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), asked if this was a casualty of war: "Unfortunately so. I simply don't believe that the Israelis would intentionally kill U.N. observers. I'd be interested to know what Mr. Annan, what facts he has at his disposal that lead him to that assertion but until I see such facts I simply don't believe it" ("LKL," CNN, 7/25).

TO SPEAK OR NOT TO SPEAK

Iraqi Prime Minister Jawad al-Maliki's scheduled address to Congress today also received some attention.

Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), on why Dems want al-Maliki's speech cancelled: "A hundred and two people, heads of states, have spoken before the Congress. This is real privilege. We have now the leader of Iraq, who's reflecting views that are closer to those of Iran than to the United States of America, in singularly condemning Israel as opposed to even mentioning Hezbollah. ... I think we should have conversations, but addressing a joint session of Congress, no, I don`t think that he should be offered that honored position."

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), in response: "We have 130,000 fighting men and women from the United States in Iraq today. If he shouldn`t address the House of Representatives in a joint session, I don't know who should" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/25). [KATHERINE LEHR]

Wait For It ...

Yesterday's OK primary yielded these results, according to the State Elections Board:

In the GOP primary for GOV, Rep. Ernest Istook won outright against oil tycoon Bob Sullivan and two other candidates. Still, Sullivan captured 30 percent, a respectable vote total in the primary for a political first-timer like Sullivan. (We'll wait and see whether surviving a contested primary will work to Istook's advantage in the general election against Gov. Brad Henry).

The race for Istook's seat is heading into a runoff, which was expected given the crowded field. The two top votegetters, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett and sitting LG Mary Fallin, will face each other again on 8/22.

Finally, the LG race will also head to a runoff for both the Dem and GOP primaries. For Dems, state House Min. Leader Jari Askins and former cong. aide Pete Regan will advance. For GOPers, state House Speaker Todd Hiett and state Sen. Scott Pruitt will go on. But state Sen. Nancy Riley did better than many analysts expected, most likely because both Hiett and Pruitt attacked each other early in the race [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Sooner Or Later, Someone Might Win A Primary

If we had to guess the results of tonight’s Oklahoma primary, we would predict a big fat “To Be Continued” for all of the contested races. According to state election rules, a candidate must get at least 50 percent of the vote to win his or her party’s nod, or face a runoff in late August.

The Tulsa World’s most recent poll shows the Gubernatorial primary heavily leaning towards Rep. Ernest Istook (R), but some Republicans are surprised oil tycoon Bob Sullivan (R) could close that gap a little in the past few months. If he’s lucky, Sullivan will head into a run-off with Istook. So why is this not an all-out romp for the sitting Congressman? Two reasons: Not many Oklahomans have a favorable opinion of Washington politicians this cycle and Sullivan has blasted the airwaves, courtesy of his petroleum-lined pockets, with the message that he’s more conservative that Istook – something that might resonate with the far right voters that turn out for a midterm primary. Among Democrats, wildly popular incumbent Governor Brad Henry (think approval rating in the 70s…) is facing only token opposition from his own Democratic party. If you’re looking for a November prediction, that same Tulsa World poll from July shows Henry beating Istook by almost a 2-to-1 margin.

The only competitive Congressional race is for Istook’s current seat: OK-05. In a crowded field, it’s an all out battle to see who owns the “most conservative candidate” title. In the Republican primary, Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin, Corporate Commissioner Denise Bode, State Rep. Kevin Calvey and Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett are running. Fallin and Cornett are well-known in the district, but Bode raised more money in the last FEC quarter enabling her to go up on air. With such a crowded field, it’s likely no one will win a majority and the top two will head to an 8/22 runoff.

With the current LG running for congress, many believe the Lieutenant Governor’s race is the one to watch with its all-star Tulsa line-up. On the Republican side, the two front-runners are House Speaker Todd Hiett and State Sen. Scott Pruitt. A third candidate, state Sen. Nancy Riley, might only get single digits, but that could be enough to push a run-off between two larger voter recipients. For Democrats, State Sen. Cal Hobson, House Minority Leader Jari Askins and former Congressional aide Pete Regan (D) are battling it out for the nomination. This race, as well, is likely to be continued in August [SHIRA TOEPLITZ and JOSH KRAUSHAAR].

Where You Vote Might Influence How You Vote

Three researchers at Stanford's business school have concluded that a "subtle" and "arbitrary" factor may influence voting decisions more than previously thought -- the "particular type of polling location in which you happen to vote."

Doctoral candidate S. Christian Wheeler: "The influence of polling location on voting found in our research would be more than enough to change the outcome of a close election.

Why?

Doctoral candidate Jonah Berger: "Environmental cues, such as objects or places, can active related concepts within individuals and influence the way they behave." Voting at schools could "activateactivatedy of a person's identity that cares about kids, or norms about taking care of the community." Voting at church "could activate norms of following church doctrine."

The trio used data from the '00 election in AZ and discovered that folks who voted in schools were more likely to support a sales tax increase to fund education. The effect was small -- 55.0 versus 53.09 (in non school locations), but it "persisted" when researchers regressed the data to remove the influence of where people lived, their political views, and their demographic identity. Berger: "Such effects may even occur outside an individual's awareness." The researchers also tested location with respect to AZ's 13 other ballot props and found "only" support for their theory.

Today's Blogometer: CT SEN or WH '08?

Reading the reactions to ex-Pres. Bill Clinton's speech and the speculation as to why he gave it, the story quickly becomes less about Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and cable exec. Ned Lamont (D) and more about Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) WH ambitions.

How much of Clinton's Lieberman speech was a preview of HRC's stump speech we won't know, for awhile. But for the moment, Clinton has blunted big league progressive blogger criticism of Team Clinton (DailyKos diarists are a major exception) while test running themes to help HRC move past her Iraq differences with those same bloggers.

The Blogometer

An Actual Campaign Epicenter?

Just asking...

Is there any other media market in the country who will be hosting as many competitive statewide races (of sort) as the DC market? MD GOV, MD SEN, VA SEN and DC mayor. What does all that clutter mean for specific campaign strategies? If certain races don't pan out in NJ and PA, could DC top Philly in importance?

On Values, DLCers Have The Tactics, But Not The Strategy

Here's a final dispatch from the weekend's DLC conversation.

After the 2000 election, the DLC’s leaders excoriated Al Gore for running a populist campaign, which they felt was a betrayal of Bill Clinton’s legacy. Had Gore embraced Clinton, he might have won by a margin large enough to avoid a court battle.

Left out of the litany was a knock on Clinton himself; his Oval Office dalliance with Monica Lewinsky and the party’s refusal to condemn him wholesale poisoned whatever shaky peace Democrats had made with cultural conservatives.

That good will resulted in part from Clinton’s heartfelt and authentic expression of his Baptist faith. Clinton won the vote of self-identified evangelicals in 1992 and again 1996. But then Clinton fell, and Democrats suffered, and Al Gore and John Kerry lost that demographic.

DLCers have no interest in excavating the origin of the Gore and Kerry failures, although Democrat Jonathan Miller, Kentucky state treasurer, admitted that his attempts to reach out to religious voters are stymied by “dialogue about abortion and gay marriage and Bill Clinton in the White House.”

Miller, speaking at a break-out session about voters of faith, believes the “religious right: has narrowed the language of values to exclude everything but sexual politics, and that the stewardship of the earth, the health of the community, and the treatment of the most vulnerable have been successfully framed by the right as questions about government.

The DLCers were looking for an overarching strategy to rebrand the party as being accomodating to people with conservative religious beliefs. What they got instead were tactics. [MARC AMBINDER]

Continue reading "On Values, DLCers Have The Tactics, But Not The Strategy" »

House Race Hotline Update: A Hard Cell

The DCCC is betting that Pres. Bush's opposition to federally-funded stem cell research will hurt GOPers, especially in suburban CDs. The jury's still out, but many GOP candidates have already been put on the defensive.

-- Rep. Dave Reichert's (R-WA 08) change-of-heart came after talking to his female staffers. After their tearful conversation, he voted to override Bush's veto.

-- Ex-Adm. Joe Sestak (D) has criticized Rep. Curt Weldon's (R-PA 07) past opposition to stem cell research. Weldon switched his position during last week's vote, calling it "one of his most difficult" decisions.

-- And in IL 06, Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth (D) highlighted state Sen. Peter Roskam's (R) opposition in the state legislature.

-- One endangered, suburban incumbent who supported Bush's veto was Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA 08). His predecessor (Jim Greenwood) was a prominent GOP backer of stem cell research, and the issue figures to play prominently in the general. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

House Race Rankings: Expanding The Field

As we get closer to Election Day, it's time to add a little more analysis to a few more races that are in our sights. Twenty-five more, to be exact. The House rankings are expanding to a full Top 50 as of this month as more races show signs of movement. The top four contests remain the same, but races in Indiana and Connecticut jump into the top 10, while news of a possible Tom DeLay comeback vaults Texas-22 to the edge of our upper tier.

Top Fifty House Races

Let's Hug It Out, Bitch

We love it when Hollywood and Washington collide. And here's a connection that is priceless. "Entourage" fans love the wheeling and dealing of uber-agent Ari Gold -- a character who's based on real life agent Ari Emanuel. And that Ari is the brother of DC superstar Rahm Emanuel. Let's hope he treats his assistants better. [EMILY GOODIN]

The On Call Daily Troika: NH, SC, IA

Hotline After Dark -- Shuttle Diplomacy In Beirut And Waterbury

Once again, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon was the focus of the cable nets with more correspondents and anchors reporting from the region. Sec/State Condoleezza Rice's Beirut trip also got a lot of attention.

CNN's J. King: "A high-profile mission with a dramatic beginning -- the secretary of state brushing aside security concerns to visit Beirut and offer support to Lebanon's fragile government" ("AC 360," 7/24).

NBC's Mitchell: "What she's doing is not really brokering the cease-fire. She's very clear about that. She wants a bigger solution" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/24).

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM): "She started a little late. I wish the administration would have had a permanent presence, a peace envoy. But she's there. And I think it's very important to recognize that the leverage of the United States in that region is very important. Symbolically, for her to be there, shuttling back and forth, is critical" ("AC 360," CNN, 7/24).

DON'T STOP THINKING ABOUT THIS RACE

And ex-Pres. Clinton's CT SEN stop for Joe Lieberman was covered live on "Hardball."

MSNBC's Matthews: "Look at the hand up there. That's to make up for the kiss. ... We're seeing a new kind of rapprochement with the Democratic left here. ... I think you're going to see a lot of hugging here. ... He wants that picture in the New York Times tomorrow morning. Get that photo op."

NBC's Reid: "What Lieberman is doing is bringing in the heavyweight champion of the Democratic Party ... but this is conditional. Clinton is saying yes I support you, but if Ned Lamont ... wins the Democratic primary in two weeks, Clinton will withdraw his support and support the Democrat, because he says you've got to support the Democrat. So even though he and Joe Lieberman go back 36 years, all the way to when Joe Lieberman was running for the state Senate, Clinton was at Yale Law School working for him, they go so far back, but he's going to withdraw that support if Lieberman loses that Democratic primary and it looks like he could. It's neck and neck right now."

Pat Buchanan: "Bill Clinton is doing a smart thing. If Lieberman wins ... he's in Hillary's camp for year 2008" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/24). [EMILY GOODIN]

Moving On Up

Two days after the DNC backed their bid to move up their WH'08 primary, SC Dems and their GOP counterparts are talking today about holding both primaries on Saturday 1/26, which would place their vote just four days after NH Dems on the '08 calendar, sources tell the Hotline.

The move could boost turnout and let parties share manpower and resources, party officials say. It could also further anger NH Dems, which is clinging to a DNC dictate that says no primary can be held within a week of their vote. But GOPers, who like Dems in SC, finance their own elections, said they could argue that the two states hold substantially different elections.

"We’re exploring at the staff level the concept of having them on the same day," said Scott Malyerck, the SC GOP executive director. "We wanna be first in the south and by ourselves, we don’t want to share that primary date. We’re going to look after our [GOP] interests first, but if it does work out that there's value in this plan, we’ll do that.”

Hillary Clinton And The Middle Class

Excerpts from the first major thematic speech Sen. Hillary Clinton has given in a long while. She spoke at the DLC's Conversation in Denver and promoted the group's American Drean initiative.

"To paraphrase the 1992 campaign line, it's the American Dream, stupid."

And later: "Will all due respect, rich people did not make America great. It was America's destiny to create something new -- a middle class that provided upward mobility to the poor and opportunity to the many."

Clinton said that the middle class "made America great." And later: "My story of hard work that lifts self, family and community is the American story."

"We got there in large part because of the Democratic Party -- we asked individuals to take responsibility for themselves and also to help in their communities, and in return, we aspect people to expect that their government woudl take responsibility for spending their hard-earned tax dollars [to] ensure the underpinnings of fairness and opportunity for all."

"It's time for Democrats to show how an agenda for change can turn this country around and bring the American Dream within reach."

"We can replace trickle down economics with rise up economics."

Is The DLC...Old Wine In A New Bottle?

DENVER, CO -- In the 1990s, the Democratic Leadership Council and the governing elite of the party were in sync. Today, the DLC has never been more polarizing. Liberals castigate them as the party's Judas -- the apostles of everything wrong with the Democratic Party.

"Don't be fooled by the day to day political chatter," the DLC's Bruce Reed said at a press briefing. "Ideas are the best way to move a party forward."

A reporter noticed that the DLC seemed not to embrace the word "centrist" anymore.

"The DLC has always believed in furthering the first principles of our party," said DLC founder Al From. "We are about promoting ideas that are progressive and are grounded in traditional Democratic values but offer new ways to further them. If that's called centrist, then we're centrist."

But the buzzword today isn't centrist -- it's "commonsense." The DLC can't call its agenda centrist or liberal or progressive, whereas Republicans are quite comfortable calling their agendas conservative.

"This is a main street project, not a K Street project," said Iowa Gov, Tom Vilsack of the DLC's American Dream initiative, a laundry list of proposals for Middle Class families. (Capital M, Capital C.)

"I think that the DLC / New Democrat approach is stronger than ever before today and where it is strongest is where we are governing –- in the states," From said.

But nationally... he wouldn't go there.

A reporter pointed out that the DLC usually invites the chair of the party to speak. Said From: "We always invite the chair of the party, but the discussion here is always about ideas...." His voice trailed off.

The American Dream Initiative is the result of collaboration by Sen. Hillary Clinton, Gov. Vilsack and Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware. It's predicated on the idea that the "basic bargain" of America -- if you work hard and play by the rules, you'll be taken care of -- has been broken by outmoded political philosophies and by years of Republican misrule.

The American Dream initiative is aspirational, a favorite adjective here in Denver. Here are some of its pillars:

-- "cutting wasteful corporate subsidies"
--"cutting unnecessary Federal Consultants by 100,000"
--"third party reporting of capital gains"
--restoring paygo rules in Congress
--An American Dream grant that "rewards" states based on the number of students who graduate and attend college. It'll cost $150B over ten years.
--a refundable 3K college tuition tax credits
--holding schools and students accountable
--Requiring every employer to open a retirement account for every worker
--Provide incentives for savers
--Tax credits to stimulate innovation
--A "smart energy policy"
--Greater accountability in corporate governance
--A "home mortgage deduction for everyone"
--A $5K "refundable" tax credit for the down payment of a home
--Lots of health care; a variety of incremental proposals to expand access to care, access to information, etc.

Is this old wine in a new bottle?

Will Democrats have to raise taxes to fund this stuff? A DLC spokesperson says no -- the total cost of these initiatives would be offset by spending cuts and efficiencies. [MARC AMBINDER]

Names And Faces At The DLC

DENVER, CO -- ** the It Boy of the DLC Conversation is 39-year old speaker of the Colorado House, Andrew Romanoff. Romanoff, who represents about 70,000 Denver residents, is a convention keynoter fresh off a demonstration of his formidable political skills. He helped broker a compromise between two intractable sides of the immigration debate, one led by ex-Clinton cabinet secretary Frederico Pena, and the other, led by former governor Dick Lamm. Romanoff positioned the compromise so finely that Colorado Gov. Bill Owens (R) had no choice but to capitulate, angering his own party. The upshot: Colorado now has some of the toughest immigration laws in the West; immigrants must prove their legal status before getting state benefits. Romanoff, who is the state's highest ranking Jewish politician has national ambitions.

** Joe Klein, the dean of the DLC press corps, seems to know every elected official by name and was determined to steer the younger, newer ones into private conversations.

** Tamara Luzzatto, a minister's daughter who is chief of staff to Sen. Hillary Clinton, attended a DLC breakout session called "Connecting with People of Faith." Clinton's legislative director, Laurie Rubiner, also took in early breakout sessions.

** New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin is back in the good graces of the DLC; he's among the most recognizable public officials here and is regularly greeted by backslaps and handshakes.

** Where is ex-Sen. John Edwards? He wasn't invited, but don’t read too much into that. “If we had turned this into a presidential beauty contest, we wouldn’t have been able to get anything else done," says DLC founder Al From. [MARC AMBINDER]

Continue reading "Names And Faces At The DLC" »

The Democrats (Re)Discover Class

DENVER, CO – There are two common features to every gathering of the Democratic Leadership Council. One is the canonization of Bill Clinton, the DLC’s biggest status symbol. The second is –- a hopper full of new ways to get Democrats elected outside the Northeast.

But this year, there’s a third task at hand-- how to justify their place in a large Democratic coalition when the party’s populists and liberals are ascendant, energized, vengeful, and apt to see them as the enemy.

Here’s what weird about that: for all the bloviating about the DLC’s corporate funding, the mushy, tasteless centrism that occasionally defines their policy suggestions, the liberals and the DLCers – call them Democratic progressives – agree on something.

In order to win elections, Democrats need to somehow regain the trust of the American Middle Class.

For the sake of argument, let’s define middle class by economic boundaries and not worry about inflation. We’re talking about voters who made between $30K and $75K a year.

Even in a three-way race with a populist, Bill Clinton won a plurality of middle class votes in 1992 and again 1996.

But Al Gore, running as a populist in the last months of his race, lost this economic cohort by three percentage points to George W. Bush. John Kerry lost it by nine points. There are many cross-cutting cleavages in such a broad group; as Clinton adviser James Carville has pointed out, Clinton won white Catholics by more than five points; Gore lost them by the same amount; Kerry lost them by 13 points. But even more than the Catholic vote, even more than the married and single women chasm, more than churchgoers and secularists, what has worried and disappointed Democratic strategists of all ideological stripes is the steep Democratic fall off among those who tell pollsters that Democratic economic policy positions are better than Republicans.

Why?

In one version of recent American political history, there was Bill Clinton, and then there was a vacuum.

That is: Clinton, a Southern governor who spent a career cajoling voters who weren’t liberals, ran a change election based on his desire to do right by the middle class. He campaigned on a middle class tax cut. At the same time, he yanked the Democratic Party out of internecine conflict and proved that Democrats didn’t have to play identity politics to win. Instead, Democrats had to be the pragmatic party. Prosperity ensued. Tides rose; all boats were lifted.

That’s an oversimplification, to be sure, but you hear it enough from DLC types.

That’s not how the party’s loudest liberal activists see things. Far from becoming the post-ideology party, Clinton rejected longstanding Democratic principles. By signing welfare reform, he pandered to conservatives. By pushing for NAFTA, he kicked organized labor in the groin. By triangulating, he tried to be all things to all people and thus left a lasting stench of contrivance on all things Democratic.

Something happened, though. Think about this: Bill Clinton never had to run with Bill Clinton’s baggage. So there’s no way to know whether Clinton was the solution or the mother of the problem.

But his victory endures. Almost every single Democrat considering a presidential bid has placed the forgotten/unappreciated/bewildered/exploited American Middle Class at the center of their incipient campaigns.

Sen. Evan Bayh likes to use the term Middle Class with capital letters and has challenged his party to stop ignoring it.

Former Sen. John Edwards likes to use the phrase “Working Class,” a term that stretches all the way from the very poor to the middle Middle Class. They’re always the ones at the short end of the stick. They word hard and get squeezed by government and corporations.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has given three policy speeches in the past few months. A common theme has been that the American Dream is out of reach for too many Americans. Her proposals aim at the economic superstructure – trying to rebuild the country’s manufacturing capacity, promising to protect privacy in a prying, atomistic world, promoting energy independence – and more.

Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa calls it the American Bargain. You work hard, don’t get in trouble, and the government ought to make sure you can afford college tutition and health care.

The entire party, it seems, has rediscovered class.

The differences are in the priorities. For the DLC, it’s about reciprocal responsibility, to use a phrase coined by Bill Galston, Bill Clinton’s intellectual gurus. That is –- as government provides, it also expects. The liberals want the guarantees, first. And they want more attention to the underbelly of economic progress.

Make no mistake: the gulf between the liberals and the DLCers is wide on foreign policy and on social values.

But on one important philosophical idea – those who work hard deserve a fair shot at the American Dream – on one part of election strategy – appealing to the Middle Class – and on one important tactic within that strategy – a new frame for those policies – there’s more agreement than either side would like to admit. [MARC AMBINDER]

Democrats Add Nevada, South Carolina To Calendar

Here's our full coverage from Saturday's meeting of the rules and bylaws committee, consolidated for easy reading.

IA Caucus Date Set For 1/14/08

The committee is about to adjourn for the day, having set the date for Iowa's caucus at 1/14.

That means that Nevada will hold its caucuses, provided the full DNC approves, on 1/19.

Ickes Uses John Edwards To Argue Against South Carolina

Re: South Carolina:

When he spoke earlier today, ex-Clinton adviser Harold Ickes voiced opposition to the Palmetto State because, he said, a bid by ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) would take the state out of play. An Edwards candidacy "will essentially be a wash and not have the purpose" the committee desires, Ickes said.

Responding to Ickes' claim, Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) called it the "most ludicrous thing I've ever heard in my life," pointing out that, should a bid by IA Gov. Tom Vilsack emerge, the DNC won't take Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus away from the Hawkeye State. Calling Ickes' claim "unfair," Clyburn sighed: "But there's nothing fair about this process."

Ickes told The Hotline that his point stands, pointing out Iowa's 1992 caucus, which was won by home-state favorite Sen. Tom Harkin. "South Carolina simply will not be taken seriously if John Edwards is running," he says. [REID WILSON]

Analysis: Reid, Dean and Labor

Members of the rules and bylaws committee, as well as other Democratic sources, attribute Nevada's win to two factors:

1. Organized labor, which overlooked their own internal breach to support a service-union heavy state like Nevada. Labor officials made a persuasive argument behind the scenes that a labor-infused early caucus would excite labor rank-and-file around the country, would demonstrate the party's continuing respect for labor's foot soldiers, and help to more broadly vet the potential frontrunner. The three teachers union reps on the committee, led by Dean ally Tina Flournoy, were instrumental in focusing labor's energies on Nevada.

Continue reading "Democrats Add Nevada, South Carolina To Calendar" »

Hoyer To Novak: You're Wrong

In response to Bob Novak's contention that some aides to Minority Whip Steny Hoyer don't want to see Democrats take back the House, Hoyer spokesperson Stacey Bernards sends along this statement:

"We believe that this information is the result of malicious gossip from those who want to stop Democrats from taking back the House. And Mr. Hoyer has already called Mr. Novak to tell him that he believes this is wrong and he is working hard to take back the House and make Nancy Pelosi the first woman speaker."

The Saturday Brunch

WHAT'S BREWING

Ned Lamont's Friday Document Dump

Hartford Courant columnist Kevin Rennie phones in with a quick rundown on Ned Lamont's tax return disclosure press event. This was Lamont's individual tax return, the first time in at least five years that he did not file jointly with his wife. The reason Lamont didn't release the return sooner is that he filed for an extensive in April and is just filing now (extensions are normally due in mid-August). Here are the highlights:

-- Lamont earned 2,702,981 in taxable 2005 income and paid taxes on $2,088,517.
-- The net taxes paid in 2005: $621,213 for a federal tax rate of 23%.
-- In what may be the most embarrassing revelation on the return, Lamont personally only claimed to give $5,385 in charitable contributions. The Lamont campaign emphasized that there is a separate Lamont family trust which, last year, doled out $213,750. Rennie states the campaign worked very hard at obscuring the $5,385 figure and bootstrapping Ned Lamont onto the amount the trust gave. The campaign manager had an angry tone, directing it at the press. Cameras were not allowed in the room while reporters examined the returns. Copies were collected at the end. The press conference had been on Lamont’s public schedule but then the campaign announced in an 11:30 a.m. email that the candidate would not be appearing.

-- Over the last five years, Lamont's family trust has contributed approx. $850,000, with approx. 25% of that total going to Harvard University.
-- The campaign did not release his wife's income tax return but did summarize the federal tax rate the Lamonts paid from 2001-2004 when the two filed jointly: In 2001, the Lamonts paid at a 38% federal tax rate clip; same in 2002. In 2003, their tax rate dropped to 34%; in 2004 it was 30% and in 2005, at least on Ned Lamont's indv. return, the tax rate went down to 23%.
-- Rennie notes Lamont's wife is a venture capitalist and could very well have earned more than Lamont last year.

Tele-Town Hall Catching On...

A few months back, we told you about a hot new tool GOP members were using to reach their constituents -- the telephone. We wondered if Rodney Smith and Tele Town Hall, Inc., his company, would continue to impress members enough to convince them to sign up.

Turns out the company is doing just fine, as Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), an experienced political operative before running on his own, became just the latest member to use the system. He conducted his first tele town hall last night and got at least one clip out of it.

Cole joins Reps. Dan Lungren (R-CA) -- who pioneered the system -- David Dreier (R-CA), John Kline (R-MN) and about 40 others, according to Smith, who says that even more members are on the waiting list. Copy-cat programs, he says, have also sprung up and attracted users from both sides of the aisle. [REID WILSON]

False Rumor Warning In TN SEN

This afternoon an e-mail from "Bob Smith" was sent to a list of reporters covering the TN SEN race with the following message: "Due to an inability to win a three way primary race and the failure to get teh other conservative to drop out Ed Bryant will withdrawl from the U.S. Senate race today at 3:00 pm. He will not endorse another candidate but he will continue to run ads detailing Bob Corker's liberal record."

The e-mail is bogus, but one wonders if it would have been possible unless one of the campaigns had allowed "Smith" the use of their electronic press list. Bryant spokesperson Andrew Shulman: "We're laughing about it over here. We have the momentum in this race and some random emails aren't going to stop an Ed Bryant victory on August 3rd." [QUINN MCCORD]

Consultants' Corner: Voter.Com 2.0? Or A Revolution?

A diverse group of high-profile names "from the worlds of politics, media and technology" have joined forces to create the "first online community" of the nation's "Opinion Drivers." Set to "go live" in 10/06, HOTSOUP.com will provide a nonpartisan forum on politics, as well as other topics ranging from business to culture. The effort is self-financed by its ten co-founders:

Ex-AP chief political writer Ron Fournier
Ex-Bush Chief Media Strategist Mark McKinnon
Ex-Clinton Press Sec. Joe Lockhart
Ex-Bush/Cheney Chief Strategist Matthew Dowd
Ex-Gore Chief Strategist Carter Eskew
Sisterwoman.com Pres. Allie Savarino
Clinton WH vet Michael Feldman
Sisterwoman.com Founding Partner John deTar
Ex-Gore advisor Chip Smith
Web design specialist Bart Barden

Feldman says the inspiration for the site was "not tied to a political cycle." Instead, the individuals recognized a disconnect between the two types of Opinion Drivers: one consisting of famous personalities and the other comprised of an estimated 30M grassroots leaders. This second type of Opinion Drivers include influential community members, such as PTA members and small business owners. Feldman: "There isn't a place right now fully dedicated to these people."

Organized similarly to MySpace.com, HOTSOUP will act as an online social network, providing opportunities for these nat'l and local figures to converse and debate on issues at hand. Fournier will serve as editor-in-chief of the site, overseeing the editorial content. His role is not to censor or structure, but rather facilitate conversation.

Dowd notes that the co-founders will occassionally contribute, but the focus remains on recruiting others. A number of prominent participants have been lined up, but will be announced at a later date. HOTSOUP.com is currently open for pre-registration.

Rallying The Youth

The College GOP Nat'l Cmte (CRNC), a 527 org., currently has over 200K members on over 1,775 campuses nationwide. The "cornerstone" of its work is the annual Field Program, which trains and deploys recent college grads and current students taking a semester off from school as field reps. CRNC Chair Paul Gourley calls this group the "best and brightest young political activists."

Field reps are responsible for "recruiting, registering, training and mobilizing" college GOPers to vote and volunteer in the election. In '04, the 56 reps helped recruit 52K new members and 70K first time voters in battleground state elections. In the month leading up to the election, the field reps also led 150K volunteers in its GOTV efforts including door knocking, making phone calls, stuffing envelopes and distributing lawn signs. Although he declined to disclose the number of field reps for this Fall, Gourley contends the CRNC "strives to do bigger and better in every election."

The CRNC pays all the expenses for its field reps during the 10 week period, costing around $100 a day per field rep. Politicalmoneyline.com reported 7/16 that the org. raised "$359,708," spent "$1,248,855" and paid "Infocision Management Corp. (OH) $821,634 for fundraising." Gourley says the teleservice provider makes live phone calls for the org., but claims the most effective form of fundraising is through the CRNC's personal connections.

CRNC Deputy Exec. Dir. Ashley Rogers notes that in addition to the amounts only spanning one quarter, the FEC does not require donations under $200 to be reported. Therefore, the difference between the amount raised and spent is not "accurately reflected" [KATHERINE LEHR]

Jane Doe For President?

Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn, a Republican, was the featured speaker at an event Thursday night asking "Is America Ready for a Woman President?" at the National Press Club. The event was hosted by the Women Under Forty Political Action Committee (more affectionately known as WUFPAC) -- a bipartisan, non-issue PAC that seeks to involve more younger women in the political process.

Blackburn did her best Elizabeth Dole impression, taking the handheld microphone and joking, "When you're so short, you just can't sit down" as she walked around what little space she had to work with. The 54-year-old congresswoman explained why she's a non-traditional politician and waxed philosophical on leadership.

She told the predominantly female audience that she never emphasized her gender in her first congressional race in 2002 because as the only Republican woman in the state Senate, she was "a caucus of one." Blackburn also furnished an animated anecdote about a man who questioned her with, "Little lady, what qualifies you to run for the United States House of Representatives?" She later told him when he asked what to call her if she was elected that "congressman will be just fine."

When asked if she thought a Republican woman would make it to the White House before a Democratic woman, in answering the question, she very eloquently did not answer the question and instead offered her thoughts on civil discourse and example-setting.

Immediately following was by a panel discussion moderated by former CNN anchor Sonia Ruseler and featuring DNC communications director Karen Finney, Council of Women World Leaders Secretary General Laura Liswood and The Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy. [ERIN McPIKE]

The Democrats Plan For August

At a meeting today, legislative and communications directors for Dem senators will review the caucus's plans for the August recess.

Those plans were outlined in a memo distributed yesterday to senators by Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

Writes Sen. Reid: "Our plans for the next month are ambitious, aggressive and require the full support of our Caucus to succeed. In a demonstration of our strength and unity, I ask that each Senator commit to the following: -- Host a town hall meeting or press conference on New Direction for America Day (August 5th) -- Hold a minimum wage event or work a minimum wage job for a few hours on Labor Day (September 4th)."

The full memo begins below and ends in the jump.

TO: The Senate Democratic Caucus
FROM: Democratic Leader Harry Reid
RE: August Recess – New Direction for America: 6 for ‘06

________________________________________________________________________

NEW DIRECTION FOR AMERICA

August Recess

From vacant Katrina trailers sitting in Hope, Arkansas to vulnerable ports in New Jersey, to seniors in Ohio who can't afford Rx drugs because they've hit the Medicare "donut hole," and to dangerous open borders in Arizona, examples of the damaging effects of the Republican Congress’s failures are widespread. As Newt Gingrich predicted, the American people have "had enough,” and are looking for real leadership to take this country in a New Direction.

Since the start of this Congress, we have aggressively laid out a New Direction for the country. We defeated Social Security privatization, we stood together in the Great Hall of the Library of Congress to commit to Honest Leadership to eliminate the Republican culture of corruption, and we unveiled Real Security, a tough AND smart plan to make America more secure and restore our country's leadership in the world.

In May, we introduced our energy independence plan – the Clean Edge Act of 2006 – to lower gas prices and address one of the most significant national security, economic and environmental issues of our generation. And in June, we detailed a New Direction for America to put the people’s interests ahead of partisan interests and address the great and many challenges facing America’s families as a result of President Bush and his Republican Congress’s failed leadership – lack of affordable health care, rising gas prices, an economy that works for all, college affordability, and retirement dignity.

Continue reading "The Democrats Plan For August" »

House Race Hotline Update: Must Be The Money

In PA 06, Lois Murphy (D) highlighted a fruitful fundraising quarter for Dems, becoming the third Dem challenger to bank more CoH than the incumbent. Among challengers in our "top 25" races, eight Dems outraised their rivals.

-- CT 04: Diane Farrell (D) continues to be one of the Dems' top fundraisers, banking more money ($691K) than Rep. Chris Shays ($560K) for the second straight quarter.

-- FL 22: Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL 22) has quietly amassed an imposing campaign warchest. He raised over $1.3M in the 2ndQ, outdistancing all candidates this cycle.

-- GA 08: Rep. Jim Marshall (D) both raised ($187K) and spent ($28K) the least money among Dems.

-- NY 20: Rep. John Sweeney (R) nearly spent more money ($440K) than he brought in ($486K). But he still maintains a CoH lead over Kirsten Gillibrand (D).

-- OH 18: Rep. Bob Ney (R) raised the least money ($125K) among all candidates, even less than perennially poor Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN 08).

-- WA 08: Despite a visit from Pres. Bush, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) raised less money ($569K) than Darcy Burner ($590K).[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

National Review On Rudy Giuliani

In a National Review cover story, Kate O’Beirne’s asks..

Her answer: probably not.

But that's not why we're drawing attention to this story. The cover photograph is provocative, and the story doesn't advance the argument against Giuliani beyond the cliched wisdom that he's too pro gay and pro-choice and too...many times married... to win the nomination.

A far better read is Byron York's long piece on McCain in South Carolina, which combines real reporting with real insight and produces real news, like the fact that McCain's chief consultant has already polled in the state and found that McCain blasts away the rest of the field.

Politiscope: Reeding Tea Leaves

Ralph Reed's loss in Georgia may spell trouble for GOP incumbents seeking re-election in Montana and Ohio this year, writes John Mercurio., But the three races are very different animals, in very different cages.

Stay in the fight. Don't retreat," Reed, the former Bush/Cheney campaign adviser and Christian Coalition leader, urged a few dozen supporters on Election Night. "And our values will win in November."

It was a curious choice of words for Reed, considering it was his values, or voters' perceptions of them, that derailed his first bid for elective office. Despite backing from GOP heroes like former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and Georgia's own former Sen. Zell Miller (D), even some of Reed's strongest backers abandoned him amid mounting signs of his close ties to disgraced GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff. "People stayed home," said state Sen. Cecil Staton, a GOP supporter of Reed, in a post-election interview. "Cagle was very effective at putting doubt in the minds of some 'values' voters, and a lot of those folks who would have come out for Ralph -- people Ralph was relying on -- simply didn't vote."

Read the full Politiscope.

The DNC Calendar Choices Narrow

According to Democratic sources, four states -- South Carolina, Alabama, Nevada and Arizona -- remain in contention for a January primary or caucus in 2008.

NV and AZ are the caucus finalists; the caucus will be scheduled between IA and NH.

AL and SC are the primary finalists; the primary will be scheduled right after NH.

The party's rules and bylaws Committee meets Saturday in DC.

Hotline After Dark -- McCain's Tough Talk

The situation in the Middle East continues to dominate.

CNN's Malveaux: "White House officials continue to reject this call for an immediate cease-fire, but they also reject the suggestion that they are simply giving Israel time to neutralize Hezbollah, of course, while these civilian casualties mount" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 7/20).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) stopped by "Scarborough Country":

McCain: "The first thing I would do now ... I would go to the United Nations Security Council and I would say, It's time to invoke sanctions on Iran because of the nuclear weapons issue. And we would tell China and Russia, this is a defining issue. This is a defining issue in our relationships. And that's what I would do to start with. Then of course, I would tell the Iranians that we will not -- as the president, I think, has already said -- we will not allow Iran to fire nuclear weapons" (MSNBC, 7/20).

Pres. Bush's address to the NAACP got a little coverage:

FNC's Cameron: "As soon as he was introduced, President Bush tried to move beyond his absences at the last five NAACP annual conventions" ("Special Report," 7/20).

CNN's Henry: "Bush was in line to become the first chief executive since Herbert Hoover never to appear before the NAACP in person as president. He moved quickly to defuse the tension today, but Republicans will still have an uphill battle trying to increase their share of the African-American vote in November" ("Situation Room," 7/20).

And there was even a little bit of election talk:

Newsweek's Fineman, on the state of the GOP: "The problem is that they have neither carrots nor sticks. They don't have the carrot because George Bush is very unpopular. He seems unable to handle events at this point, desperately low approval ratings. And there's no stick either because what is Karl Rove going to threaten to do? Not allow the president to go into your state or district? A lot of Republicans don't want him there" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/20). [EMILY GOODIN]

A Tragic Lie...

ESPN.com has a well reported investigative piece on the inaccurate report regarding the death of ex-NFL star Pat Tillman. Someone was playing politics with Tillman's death is the basic conclusion of the piece; what's not clear is who decided that creating a false story of heroism was a good idea. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) is the most widely quoted pol in the piece, which does take the wind out of the sails of the political aspect. Still, lots of Bush references are included, mostly focused on how the president publicly talked about Tillman's death. Clearly, Tillman's family is angry (as they are the primary source for much of the reporting) and ESPN is devoting a lot of resources to this story.

Rudy and McCain PAC Numbers

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's Solutions America PAC raised $1.4 million in June, spend $303K and had $1.4 million in the bank.

Interesting: the PAC said its mega June fundraiser took in $2M. Some of those checks hadn't come in by the end of the month. The PAC gave $150K worth of contrbutions to federal candidates. Checks written to the PAC included $36,000 from employees of Giuliani Partners, $5K from ex NYSE exec Dick Grasso and $2K from ex-Giuliani adviser Ray Harding.

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC raised $1.66 million, spent $725K and ended the month with $1.69M.

His disbursement pattern suggests more seed work: contributions were sent to every county party in Alabama and to several more candidates in South Carolina.

The Big Number: 43

Everyone's talking about a certain survey by Quinnipiac Univ. that shows cable exec. Ned Lamont (D) beating Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) in the primary. But we're taking a look at another part of that poll that spells equally interesting news for Dems.

52% of CT Dems surveyed by Quinnipiac Univ. say they plan to cast their ballots in the gubernatorial primary for New Haven Mayor John DeStefano. Just 32% say they'll vote for Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy. Whether Malloy closes that gap or DeStefano takes the prize, it could be a pyrrhic victory.

That's because 43% of Dems in CT say they plan to cast their ballots in 11/06, not for DeStefano or Malloy, but for Gov. Jodi Rell (R), consistently shown to be one of the most popular governors in America. DeStefano trails Rell 62%-25%, while Malloy manages just 23% to Rell's 64%. Both times, the Gov picks up 43% of Dems.

We wonder if a more competitive Gov race would have shifted any grassroots focus away from the state's Sen race, which -- rightly so -- is garnering many more headlines. [REID WILSON]

UPDATE: A reader notes that the phrase "equally troubling," which appeared where "equally interesting" does now, may have sent the wrong message. We didn't intend to imply that any candidate is bad news for his own party.

DNC Begins GOTV Check-Writing; DSCC Raises $8.8M; DCCC has $6M More On Hand Than NRCC

The Democratic National Committee opened its wallet this week, writing checks to state coordinated campaigns in Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

It's the first round of earmarks from the $12 million budgeted by Howard Dean, the DNC's chair, for mobilizing voters ahead of the November election. The money will fund early vote programs, help the parties find drop-off voters, track absentee ballots, and in November, get the darn Dem base out to the polls.

The Republican National Committee has also started to write checks for their joint statewide campaign offices -- Victory programs, in their parlance. But the party's budget for GOTV is more than two times larger than what the DNC plans to spend, according to Republican sources briefed on the matter. (Officials at the RNC declined to discuss budget numbers.)

DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel has pressured DNC Chairman Howard Dean to transfer money to his committee for use in specific races. The Democratic official would only say that "discussions" with Emanuel were continuing, although the DNC has publicly ruled out direct transfers. Dean has defended spending tens of millions on his 50 State Strategy, noting that trained DNC staff members have been walking precincts in states for months, registering voters and adding identifications to voter databases. Under Dean, the party has also spent more than $6 million revamping its national voter database system.

Including the hard dollars contained in state party coffers and the RNC's sizable cash on hand advantage, the GOP will have a financial edge of more than $45 million in total over the Democrats.

A side note: The parties began to release their fundraising numbers for the first six months of the year. In June, the DSCC raised $8.8 million -- its best month to date. The committee has $37.7 million on hand and has raised more than $73 million through the cycle. The DSCC spent $4.6 million. The NRSC said it raised $4.8 million, spent $3.1 million and had $19.9 million cash on hand. The committee has raised $62.6 million to date. The DCCC reported $32 million cash on hand. The NRCC raised $9.5 million and had $26.5M on hand.. [MARC AMBINDER]

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TN SEN (GOP) Corker Writes Himself $1M+ Check

Ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) announced today he's written himself a $1.745M in check.

Corker: "In order to keep the negative tactics of others in this race from affecting the hard work of thousands of volunteers, activists and supporters who have worked so hard on this campaign, I have decided to make a significant personal contribution to the campaign." He also announced he raised $6.6M in non-Corker money in the 2ndQ, leaving him $1.23M CoH as of 7/14.

Some sources state this has tripped the "Millionaire's Amendment" for the other GOPers.

CT SEN UPDATE: Kossacks React

The major CT bloggers (Spazeboy, My Left Nutmeg, Connecticut Blog, Connecticut Bob, and Lamont Blog) are wrapping Bill Clinton's announcement that he is campaigning for for Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) into their Quinnipiac poll posts. Most claim Team Lieberman chose to play the "Clinton card" only now that he is behind in the polls. The silence on the front pages of the major national blogs is deafening. Nothing on DailyKos' or MyDD's main page. Atrios has a one line link to a Jane Hamsher post that was originally about the Quinnipiac poll.

Read the Hotline's
Blogometer

Meanwhile DailyKos diarist are not staying silent. A sampling of DailyKos diarist opinions:

• Ivan: "It's on! The Clintons have chosen their side, and I have chosen mine. We have to demonstrate that we can beat the Republicans our way, not the Clinton way. We can rant and rail against the Clintons, the DLC, Lieberman, and the lot, but unless we win elections, it's all academic.
• GiveMeLibertyOrDeath: "This is so infuriating and once again self-destructive for the Democratic public image and any hope of putting out a real message."
• shergald: "Remember that Clinton is part of the DLC movement, which believes that the country has moved right and that a centrist Democratic thrust is necessary to achieve electoral success. That meant compromise with the right. And who else has been more willing to compromise with the right: Lieberman."
• Hesiod: "I have always been suspicious that Bill and Hillary are playing Good Cop/Bad Cop on various issues. Hillary herself can't come out and endorse campaign for Joe Lieberman in the primary. But her husband can. And, this way they get to play both sides against the middle. She benefits from being a "good democrat" who won't disrespect Connecticut Democratic primary voters, and Bill can go out and campaign for Joementum so as not to alienate "moderates."
• CTLiberal: "Awww Bill Say it ain't so...I'm disappointed in him. I agree with your premise that Hillary and Bill are playing both sides..."
• Billy Shears: "More proof that the Clintons are obsolete as a political force. Let's dispose of them in the same dustbin we will put the Bush family in."
• oldjohnbrown: "What on Earth is he thinking? Sometimes I wonder if he is. I remember when Dean became DNC chair, Clinton in his speech for the occasion remarked something to the effect that 'nobody here disputes that NAFTA was good for the economy.' There's no way he didn't know that Dean did exactly that."
• Paleo: "I hope this is the final straw for all the remaining Clinton defenders on this board. The guy lives to screw the left. And he campaigns for a Holier than though Joe who condemned him during the Lewinsky affair. While the left was defending him!"
• JoeOhioan: "Is this really a big surprise? I mean, politicians are nothing if not incumbent protectors. And Clinton is just another politician, after all is said and done. A brilliant man, a great leader, and all that. But still a politician. Hell, not only a politician, but married to a politician. Married to an incumbent."
ActivistGuy: "Triangulator Bill knows he would have done to Joe what Joe did to him if the roles had been reversed. Holy Joe just laid a Sister Souljah moment on Bill is all. Peas in a pod. Very natural endorsement.
• John Campanelli: "I don't have a problem with this I still think Lamont will win. But by bringing out the big guns in the form of the Big Dawg, Democrats simply make Lieberman that much more obligated to the party. If he does anything that flirts with the Republicans, party leaders can say, "We did all we could to help you and yet you still turn to Republicans to maintain your seat?" It would send the message home that Lieberman is devoted more to himself and not the party.
• IndyScott: "It's On Days Like This That I really think we have to consider a new political party and let the Democratic Party destroy itself." [CONN CARROLL]

"The senator was unaware that the image

of the towers was a graphic representation."

-- DeWine spokesperson Brian Seitchik, on fake 9/11 imagery in their ads, Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Maryland: Pinchers And Pols

CRISFIELD, MD, July 19 -- Crabs. Crabs in the steamer, crabs on the table, crabs on the ground. Crabs on hats, shirts, and shorts. A crab even adorns the water tower of this Eastern Shore town that sits on the Chesapeake Bay and every summer hosts a tribute to its favorite crustacean.

While the calinectes sapidus or "beautiful swimmer" is clearly the honored guest, Maryland politicians have also crashed the party since the J. Millard Tawes Crab and Clam Bake began 30 years ago. It is not the crabs, clams, fish, corn on the cob, sweet potato fries or watermelon, however, that bring the candidates from across the Bay Bridge and all the way down the Delmarva peninsula.

"I don't even try to eat the crabs," said Myrna Cardin who was pinch-hitting for her husband, Rep/SEN candidate Ben Cardin (D). Stuck in Washington for votes, Cardin sent his wife out to show the flag and shake hands. Or, as Mrs. Cardin explained, "touch elbows." Such adjustments are a must when every good Marylander has Old Bay stuck from the fingers down to the wrists.

Of course, not everyone who braved the heat and humidity did so to be glad-handed by the bushels of pols who made the trek down the shore. Unlike similar must-attend shindigs in other states where the pols are the main course, the Tawes Bake (named after the last governor Crisfield sent to Annapolis) brings out thousands every third Wednesday in July more for the food, fellowship and beer than anything else. That and it is a good excuse to get of of the office and close to the water.

It's not tough to tell who is standing in the well-worn marina parking lot for what reason. The politicos sport campaign t-shirts and stickers, stay close to the candidate tents, have cleaner hands and are more, well, sober. The others wear hats that say things like, "Don't Give Up The Shrimp," amble around freely to catch up with old friends and seem to prefer a mason jar of Bud in their grip over the hand of yet another candidate. Oh, and they are the ones playing beer pong. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Continue reading "Maryland: Pinchers And Pols" »

Bush's Preroration At The NAACP Convention

Bush: "Condi Rice tells me of her father's long struggle to register to vote. She shared that story with me. That right was not fully guarnateed until Lyndon Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act into law. He called the right to vote the lifeblood of our democracy. That was true then and it remains true today. I thank the members of the House of Representatives for authorizing [its extension.] I look forward to the Senate passing this bill, promptly, without amendment, so I can sign it into law."

As he left the stage, Bush recieved a hug from frequent critic Julian Bond.

Bush At The NAACP, Continued

Bush talked of his recent Memphis visit -- his stop at the Lorraine motel, where MLK was killed. He encouraged the audience (and Americans?) to visit the national civil rights museum there. "It's a powerful reminder of the hardships this nation has been through. The struggle for decency."

Bush said the NAACP's Gordon "doesn't mince words." "It's clear what's on his mind. He;'s also a results oreinted person. I'm pleased to say that I'm an admirer of Bruce Gordon, and we've got a good working relationship."

He turns to Bruce. " I dn't know if that helps you or hurts you."

He said he and Gordon had "frank discussions," talking about Katrina. Bush: "We talked about the challenges facing African Americans, we talked about the government response, and most importantly, we talked about the way forward. As the result of the first meeting, we found areas where we have common purpose."

Bush reminded the audience that Congress had appropriated $110 billion to rebuild the Gulf Coast. And then:
"Bruce and I talked about how make sure contracting goes to minority businesses."

More Bush: "I don't expect Bruce to become a Republican and neither do you. But I do want to work with him. And that's what I'm here to talk to you about."

He then ticked through a list of issues, including the Medicare prescription drug benefit, his No Child Left Behind bill, and his ownership society. Then AIDS.

A heckler began to interrupt Bush -- Bush shrugged it off.

Bush On African Americans And Republicans

"I understand that many African-Americans distrust my political party."

(This drew loud applause.)

Bush: " For too long, my party wrote off the African-American vote and many African-Americans wrote off fthe Republican Party. That history has prevented us from working together when we agree on great goals."

Cheers For Bush

Loud cheers for President Bush at the NAACP convention.

Bush began his by poking fun at himself.

"Bruce [Gordon, the NAACP president] is a polite guy. I Ithought he was going to say, "It's about time you showed up."

That brought raucous applause.

More Bush: "I have come to celebrate the heroism of the civil rights movements and the accomplishments of the NAACP. I want to talk about ways to build what the NAACP has always sought.... It's important to me. It's important to our nation. I come from a family committed to civil rights. My faith tells me that we're all children of God, equally loved, equally cherished, equally entitled to the rights He grants us all."

Yet More Bush: "For nearly 200 years, our nation failed the test of expanding the blessings of liberty to Afircan America. Bush said the legacy of slavery and discrimination "is a stain" on America."

Bush talked of "another set of founders" who "literally built our country." "They raised the children of others, even though their own children had been ripped away and sold to strangers."

Don't Need To Explain This, Peter Daou

A Quinnipiac poll shows cable exec Ned Lamont (D) leading Lieberman, 51%-47%. In 6/06, Lieberman led 55%-40%.

In possible general election matchups:

Lieberman defeats Republican challenger Alan Schlesinger 68 - 15 percent; Lamont beats Schlesinger 45 - 22 percent, with 24 percent undecided; Running as an independent, Lieberman gets 51 percent, to 27 percent for Lamont and 9 percent for Schlesinger.

Explain Away This, Peter Daou!

(We're kidding, but)...

LIEBERMAN CAMPAIGN ANNOUNCES FORMER
PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON TO CAMPAIGN FOR SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN

Will Make Campaign Stop Next Monday in Waterbury

Hartford, CT- The Lieberman Campaign announced today that Former President Bill Clinton will make a campaign stop for Sen. Joe Lieberman next Monday, July 24 in Waterbury.

"We are thrilled to have President Clinton come to the state to campaign for Sen. Lieberman," said Marion Steinfels, Lieberman campaign spokesman. “It is not only a big day for our campaign, but it is a big day for Waterbury and Connecticut.”

Hotline After Dark -- Rockstar, Mideast Edition

Once again, coverage of the Middle East dominated cable news.

NBC's Mitchell: "At the White House, I'm beginning to hear some concerns about the domestic American response. And when you see the political meter start moving on that, that's when you may see that referee tapping Israel on the shoulder" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/19).

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), asked if this is the beginning of WW III: "No, it's not the beginning of World War III. Actually, it may be a real opportunity to change the dynamic in the region. This is the first time that everyone's on the same page."

On the U.S.' role: "We were a little slow on the uptake in the evacuation" ("LKL," CNN, 7/19).

But Pres. Bush's first veto got a few mentions:

CNN's Bash: "His first veto was behind closed doors. No photographs and later, no apologies" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 7/19).

MSNBC's N. O'Donnell: "President Bush today thrilled conservatives with his first veto of a bill to expand stem cell research, but at the same time Mr. Bush is facing an open rebellion from the right over his foreign policy" ("Hardball," 7/19).

FNC's Garrett: "Politically, Democrats vow to use this issue against what they call vulnerable Republicans in swing districts. But Republicans who've looked at the polls said they can't think of a single race, House or Senate, that will be decided by the embryonic stem cell issue" ("Special Report," 7/19).

NPR's Williams: "The president is making a big mistake. I mean, it's going to be politically costly going into those same midterm elections. ... This is not just 60 percent of the American people. You have people who are anti-abortions, Republicans in the Senate, who voted for the bill" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 7/19).

And for those of you counting:

Washington Post's Milbank: "Sixteen weeks until election day. By my account there's 16 actual days in which the House of Representatives will be voting the entire rest of the year and it's only July. Sure, we did the Pledge of Allegiance this week. The House voted on the gay marriage amendment, even though the Senate had already killed it. But, we have nothing but good posturing in the Congress of the United States" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/19). [EMILY GOODIN]

On The Trail: Sleepless In Washington

This is at the top because it's probably the biggest mystery of the cycle. It's not clear who is funding get-out-the-vote efforts for the Democrats this year, or more important, who is running them. Is it a coordinated state-based campaign with a loose connection to the Democratic National Committee? Is it labor, and if so, which part -- John Sweeney's the AFL-CIO or Andy Stern's SEIU? And where did all the money from America Coming Together go? Will even half of it make it back into Democratic coffers in some capacity? There are still lots of unanswered questions, and Election Day is less than five months away.

This point may be last, but it is probably just as important as any on this list. Many analysts failed to predict the GOP's wave in '94 for a variety of reasons, most notably a lack of confidence in the Republicans to actually pull it off -- even as polls showed otherwise. This cycle has a similar feel. The reason many analysts aren't ready to jump on the Democratic bandwagon just yet is the lack of confidence in the strategic leadership of the party. This is, after all, the party that messed up '00, missed the issue matrix of '02, believed Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was the most "electable" candidate in '04 and has shown little evidence in '06 of truly knowing what's necessary to win now. But sometimes, the voters roll the dice.

Hotline After Dark: highlights of the nightly chat shows

The Daily Troika: morning updates from IA, NH and SC

The Futures Market: the rising stars of politics, state-by-state

The Weekender: : what's on the minds of Hotline writers?

Buzz Columns : Weekly columns from Hotline editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio.

The Blogometer:: We distill the essence of the political blogosphere's zeitgeist -- every day.

The Big Number: : the poll of the day.

Consultant's Corner : the latest trends in political consulting.

House Race Hotline Updates : dispatches and analysis of the hottest House races.

Election Nights: : real-time results and instant analysis of every major primary -- and we'll be live all fall.

The Hotline's Race Rankings : Get an early line on WH 2008, as well as the latest rankings, commentary and analysis on all '06 Senate, House and governor races.

Hotline Race Hotline Update: Open Sesame

EMILY's List-endorsed candidates stand out among the 2ndQ fundraising leaders for open seat races. But in the two biggest matchups (IA 01, CO 07), the GOPers are maintaining CoH advantages. The highlights:

-- CO 07: Rick O'Donnell (R) is benefiting from the competitive Dem primary. He's raised $300K, slightly more than his Dem opponents. But both Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm are spending for the primary, giving O'Donnell a comfortable CoH lead for now.

-- IA 01: The matchup between Bruce Braley (D) and Mike Whalen (R) is one of the most PAC-friendly. Labor has given generously to Braley, while GOP leadership PACs have donated $74.5K to Whalen.

-- IL 06: Tammy Duckworth (D) raised the most among open-seat candidates ($844K), narrowing her CoH gap with Peter Roskam (R). But Roskam is still one of the best-funded candidates, with over $1.3M CoH.

-- MN 06: Patty Wetterling (D) banked over $620K, the third-most among open-seat candidates. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

CongressDaily: Reynolds Turns To RNC To Manage Get-Out-The-Vote Effort

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Thomas Reynolds of New York said today his committee is delegating its "get out the vote" effort, which he described as central to the GOP's 2006 electoral success, to the Republican National Committee this cycle. "I don't give [away] GOTV just because they say they can do it," Reynolds said today at a breakfast sponsored by The Hill newspaper.

"There is a demonstrated track record in [RNC Chairman] Ken Mehlman as Bush-Cheney campaign manager. He is the only guy in America who Tom Reynolds would turn over GOTV." In past election cycles, the NRCC has operated the "Strategic Taskforce for Organizing and Mobilizing People," also known as STOMP, in which Republican members enlist their district supporters to aid GOP candidates in neighboring, more competitive House races. Reynolds said the NRCC would continue to tap members for turnout activity, but he said the RNC would take the lead through its "72-Hour" program, "because I can put my resources and my efforts into other areas of a complex election."

Reynolds relied heavily on the RNC's turnout operation in the special election of GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in California's open 50th District. He said turnout results contradicted predictions before the June special election that Republicans would not turn out. He also noted Democratic turnout was only 1 or 2 points better than Democratic presidential turnout in the district. "I think the Democrats in House elections have more [reason] to be concerned about it," Reynolds said of turnout in the general election. By handing over turnout operations to the RNC, Reynolds said Republicans can pool resources in competitive states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, which host contested gubernatorial, Senate and House campaigns. Reynolds declined to discuss the particulars of funding or coordination strategy, but he did note the significant advantage the RNC enjoys in available resources over the Democratic National Committee.

A spokesman for the RNC said both the NRCC and National Republican Senatorial Committee are collaborating this cycle on a centralized voter turnout effort, largely based on the "72-Hour" turnout program the RNC has deployed in presidential and midterm elections. "It's all centrally located within the 72-Hour program, and it is modeled after things that have worked in the past," the spokesman said. The RNC spokesman said the three national party committees have drawn up coordinated victory plans in each state. He said state victory committees, backed in part by the RNC, are the primary funding sources for state turnout efforts. He said the RNC coordinates the overall effort through regional political directors and a large volunteer base. [MARK WEGNER]

Senate Race FEC Reports: The List

What should we read into the GOP's big financial advantage in the top Dem targeted seats?

A Printer Friendly Version
Of Our FEC Chart

I you spent more than your SEN rival over the past 3 months, chances are you're losing. From AZ and FL, to PA and WV, that's one trend we see in new FEC reports:

-- AZ's Pederson is Q2's biggest spender, by far. Will it help him move polls? Same goes for Raese, Tarrant and Ricketts. Burns and Benator have cash leads, but they're burning through their warchests.

-- FL's Harris also spends huge, with little to show. Nelson builds his warchest as if he's got a real race (he's 2nd to HRC in cash).

-- Meanwhile, primaries take their toll: MD's Steele is benefiting from a clear field, while Cardin is not. In MI, poor GOP numbers show how harmful a primary can be. HI's Case raises little. Is he being Schumed?

-- Targeted incumbents have mixed success. McGavick is keeping the heat on Cantwell without having opened his wallet yet. Whitehouse outraises Chafee, but does it matter? (Chafee can always write a check).

-- The power of "incumbency?" McCaskill, Kean aren't keeping pace with Talent, Menendez. Actually, incumbency helps: As the NRSC notes, GOPers in the top 7 Dem targets hold a total CoH edge of $24.2M. (Then again, the Dems
in the top six GOP targets have a $29.3M edge). [QUINN MCCORD]

House Race Hotline Update: Winning The Race

State Sen. Steve Cohen (D) picked up the endorsement of the Memphis Commercial-Appeal 7/16, but that will probably have less of an impact on the 8/3 primary than the fact that Cohen's the only major white candidate in a field of no fewer than 10 African-American Dems. Cohen lost to Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-09) 60%-34% in '96, but that same 34% could easily outpace any of the black Dems unless all but two or three are relegated to single-digit support.

NYC councilor David Yassky (D), who faces 3 African-American Dem challengers in NY-11, doesn't benefit from as large a field, yet he too could win the nomination by plurality. Of course, Yassky isn't helped by how openly his race has become an issue in the contest, and his district has far fewer white residents (21%) than TN-09 (35%) to serve as his base. Since both Yassky and Cohen are Jewish, it will also be interesting to see if any of their opponents demand that they condemn Israel's actions in the current Middle East crisis.

Ralph Who?

The RNC has issued their statement on GA LG, nary a mention of Reed:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Ken Mehlman issued the follow statement regarding Casey Cagle’s primary election victory:

“A successful businessman and dedicated public servant, Casey Cagle has the character and experience to successfully lead Georgia as the next Lieutenant Governor. While in the Georgia state Senate, Cagle fought for the issues and values important to Georgians – and will continue this effort as Lieutenant Governor by fighting for better schools and continued tax relief. The Republican Party stands united behind Casey Cagle and looks forward to working toward his successful election this November.”

Reed's Rise And Fall Writ Small

As state party chair, Ralph Reed led GA Republicans to historic victories in '02. They elected a governor for the first time since Reconstruction, knocked off an incumbent U.S. Senator, gained a majority in the state Senate and made gains in the state House. Two years later, with Reed running the southeast part of the country for Pres Bush's re-elect, Republicans took over the House and the president gained an additional 500K votes in GA over what he received there in '00. Much of this success came as a result of Reed's effort to register and turn out conservative-leaning voters in the burgeoning suburbs and exurbs around Atlanta, his own home base. It is in those very places where he saw his political career sidetracked last night.

Thanks to an aggressive advertising effort by state Sen. Casey Cagle (R) in the last few weeks of the campaign and similarly aggressive coverage of Reed's candidacy by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Metro Atlanta Republicans decided they could not take the risk of supporting a tarnished candidate. Cagle won the four big counties (Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett and DeKalb) in and around Atlanta by a combined 19K votes. Add in the further afield exurbs (including Cagle's native Hall Co) and over half of Cagle's margin came from just the Metro area.

The further away from Atlanta, the better Reed seemed to do. He won or broke even in the three most sizable GA locales outside of Atlanta, Savannah (Chatham Co), Augusta (Richmond Co.) and Macon/Warner-Robins (Bibb and Houston Co's), and won a number of scattered rural counties. As Reed well knows, however, GA elections are won and lost around the capital city.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Hotline After Dark -- Beirut As New Orleans?

Cable TV continues to focus on the Middle East, with correspondents reporting from various points around the region.

CNN's Roberts: "It doesn't look like anything substantial is going to happen on the diplomatic front this week. The United States is not about to ask the Israelis to stop, and Condoleezza Rice has no firm plans yet to travel to the region" ("Situation Room," 7/18).

Ex-Sen. George Mitchell (D-ME): "My guess is that sometime in the next few days you'll begin to see a more comprehensive and concerted effort in which the United States is involved to try to bring it to a conclusion" ("On the Record," FNC, 7/18).

There was a lot of talk on the U.S. policy requiring Americans in Lebanon to pay an evacuation fee. And the images of Americans waiting to be evacuated brought comparisons to Hurricane Katrina.

CNN's Koppel: "As the day progressed here on Capitol Hill, Democrats ramped up the rhetoric. They seized upon this issue, went on the offensive" ("Situation Room," 7/18).

MSNBC's Shuster had the WH response: "[WH spokesperson Tony] Snow blamed Congress and said lawmakers three years ago were the ones who tightened the law" ("Hardball," 7/17).

NBC's Mitchell: "The U.S. government will now pay for people to travel to Cyprus. Evacuees, though, will still have to pay for the rest of their trips back to the United States. The State Department does say though that it has negotiated cut-rate fares with the major airlines. This is only, of course, the latest controversy over what some critics say have been a slow and halting response on the part of the U.S. government to thousands of Americans trying to get out of Beirut" ("Scarbrough Country," MSNBC, 7/18).

More Shuster: "The image of Americans, terrified and having to wait for days to be rescued, is an image that has burned the Bush administration before, namely a year ago following Hurricane Katrina. This time around, amidst the violence in Lebanon, no Americans have died waiting for help. And with U.S. Navy ships streaming towards Beirut and Israel pledging safe passage for all evacuees, Bush administration officials are convinced the greatest political danger they are facing in all of this here at home will be over within days" ("Hardball," 7/18).

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI): "In Lebanon we have 25,000 people from America. Over 5,000 family members from Michigan who are literally trapped. ... This reminds me of watching the pictures of people sitting on rooftops in New Orleans that should have been evacuated much more quickly than they were. Six days is way too long. People are afraid and have every right to be. People at home are worried about their families. And it's been at least six days, and it may be much, much longer before people are able to get home" ("LKL," CNN, 7/18).

Georgia Primaries

LG (R) 96%  in
Casey CAGLE: **    56.1%   225,640  
Ralph REED:       43.9%    176,547



GOV  (D)  96% in
Cathy COX:              44.0%      209,482
Mark TAYLOR: **         51.7%     246,351 

North Georgia's Newsroom * * * * * AJC * * * * * Cobb/Marietta News * * * * * WSB * * * * * Southern Political Report

Continue reading "Georgia Primaries" »

Today's Blogometer: Storm Warning

Well it wasn't on social issues as E.J. Dionne predicted, but an internal GOP fight might just be upon us. George Will's 7/18 broadside has produced limited blogger reaction so far, but it's still early. William Kristol has a very well-established MSM vehicle to fight back with, but the Blogometer will continue to monitor how the debate plays out on the right side of the 'sphere. Meanwhile, while there's plenty of Middle East commentary at lefty sites like TAPPED and The Huffington Post, the granddaddy of them all (DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas) takes a pass on the recent violence and other bloggers have noticed.

Read the Hotline's
Blogometer

He's A Feline Sensation

Jim Davis might have thought he was tech-saavy when he told an elections board clerk to "google" him to find out more about his gubernatorial candidacy. According to a story by the Palm Beach Post, when Democratic Rep. Davis filing his papers at the elections office, he said to the clerk: "I'm a congressman from Tampa. Google me to find out more about me."

Perhaps he should have given his direct URL. If you google "Jim Davis," the first result is famous Garfield cartoonist Jim Davis' Web site, author of "feline sensation" comic strip. Furthermore, the sponsored results on right return his primary opponent, state Sen. Rod Smith. Guess Smith's campaign googled Davis before he did... [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Dems: DeWine's Intel Cmte Failed Ohio

How's this for a tough Dem ad?

The Ohio Democratic Party is trying to rebut Mike DeWine's first national security contrast spot against Sherrod Brown by accusing DeWine of letting down the country -- and Ohio -- before 9/11.

DeWine's ad, which began to air yesterday, wonders where Brown stands on "protecting America's homeland." From the DeWine ad:

"In Congress, Brown voted to slash national intelligence programs. He voted against strengthening criminal laws for terrorist attacks. He voted against the Patriot Act which gives law enforcement the tools to fight terrorism. Brown even voted against the death penalty for terrorists who kill passengers on trains and subways. Sherrod Brown. Weakening America's Security. Out-of-touch with Ohio values"

The Dem's rebuttal ad, paid for by the DSCC. is just as sharp

“It's sad. Mike DeWine exploiting images of 911 to smear Sherrod Brown.” “Brown voted for the death penalty for terrorists, …” “…tougher port security, tighter borders, …” “…and led the fight against bioterrorism.” “DeWine? He failed us on the intelligence committee before 911…” “…and on weapons of mass destruction.” “He supported trade deals with China even after thousands of lost jobs…” “ … and the transfer of sensitive military technology. That's not protecting Ohio."

BTW: The Dem ad, produced by Squier Knapp Dunn, shows DeWine moving -- in real time. Ads like these normally show the bad guy in a still frame -- or in slow motion.

Lieberman Organizes...And Worries

Hartford Courant columnist Kevin F. Rennie 's latest exclusive dispatch from Connecticut.

Joseph Lieberman is hoping to use fear where work where persuasion has failed. Life on the ropes has caused the three term incumbent to call in Washington pro, Tom Lindenfeld to put together an organization to call, identify and inspire Lieberman primary voters for the August 8th showdown.

The theme of a Saturday conclave of Greater Hartford Democratic town committee chairs was that if Lieberman loses the primary he will hurt all other Democratic candidates by running as an independent in November. The message was clear: help him now or your favorites suffer in November.

The meeting was held at Congressman John Larson’s political office. Larson wants locals to think the Democrats will take over the House if three challengers in Connecticut win. He would also get some credit for those wins, having looked foolish with his emphasis on an unsuccessful 2004 Dem challenger in eastern Connecticut.

The response of the crowd of about 50 could not have been encouraging, though Lendenfeld impressed with his plan. Still, there was much resentment about Lieberman’s support of the war in Iraq and, now, threat to bolt party if he falls short on 8/8. Reactions ranged from support to nods to hostility. Most local leaders are far more interested in the gubernatorial race with its tangible rewards in patronage and prestige.

One of Lieberman’s problems became evident in aftermath of meeting: lots of local leaders are quietly opposing him and were eager to share tales of the event. Plan is to hire workers to make calls and hit the pavement. Fears are growing that Lieberman will have no chance of winning in a low turnout. Twenty percent, the number batted about, is thought to be fatal to his chances.

The three term incumbent’s people concede that he has no effective organization of his own. He has brought in a pro to gin up his ground game with only three weeks left and several million dollars to spend. Lamont manager Tom Swan, an organizing legend in Connecticut, has put together a formidable machine for the challenger. It had a test run in the spring when it prepared to petition Lamont’s way onto the primary ballot, which became moot after his strong convention showing.

Lieberman needs a pro like Lindenfeld . His camp has been infiltrated by hostile Democratic officials who are surprised they get invited to his meetings when they have no intention of doing any work for him, let alone giving him their votes.

The On Call Daily Troika: IA, NH and SC

GEORGIA: Has An LG Race Ever Meant So Much?

There are two high-profile races in today's GA primary, but only one of them may matter. The first, as any junkie worth his or her salt knows, is the GOP LG contest pitting ex-Christian Coalition exec dir Ralph Reed versus state Sen. Casey Cagle. Thanks to a certain disgraced lobbyist, this race has received much attention both in and out of the state. Beyond the obvious "rise-and-fall" narrative, a Reed loss would provide Dems (and the media) with the first loss or departure that can be directly tied to a scandal that so many had such high hopes for.

For GA Dems, their best day of the cycle may be today. If Cagle wins -- and the public polling indicates he has the momentum to do so -- the general election likely becomes just another conventional battle between underfunded Dems and well-financed Republicans in an increasingly Republican Southern state. But if Reed's home school-fueled turnout operation can somehow eke out a victory, this fall may be as much about Jack Abramoff as it is Gov. Sonny Perdue (R). And the Dem ticket may have a real shot.

A relative unknown beyond his North GA district, Cagle lagged in the polls until he launched a frontal ad attack on Reed's ties to Abramoff. He now has a marginal lead, but perhaps more importantly Reed's negatives with GOP voters are just south of 50% -- not where one wants to be a in a race with as many undecided voters as this one apparently does.

As with most any GA election these days, the GOP LG contest will be decided in Metro Atlanta. Keep a close eye on those fast-growing exurbs that ring the capital and that Reed so masterfully mobilized to get Perdue and Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) elected in '02 and Pres Bush re-elected in '04. Filled with conservative-leaning, middle-class voters (often with few ties to GA or GA politics), places like Paulding (37.8% growth since '00), Cherokee (29.8%), Forsyth (42.7%) and Gwinnett Co (23.4%) are on their way to supplanting Newt's Marietta and Cobb Co as the "must-have" locales in GA GOP politics. You'll probably know the winner of the campaign by taking a look at who prevailed in these such places.

There are probably more than a few Dems who aren't upset that the Ralph Reed has overshadowed their GOV primary. In exactly the sort of long-unfolding political train wreck that GA Dems had hoped to avoid, LG Mark Taylor (D) and Sec/State Cathy Cox (D) have spent over $6M combined to air very negative and personal ads. Taylor has twisted Taylor's nickname, "The Big Guy," around so as to paint the hefty South GA pol as a "Big Guy" who takes care of his "Big Friends" (and his family) at the expense of the "Little Guy." Or something like that. Taylor has blasted Cox, also a South GA native, for using state funds to do PSAs that boost her name recognition and accused her of opposing GA's lottery -- the lottery that funds the state's highly-regarded, and politically sacred, HOPE scholarship fund. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Continue reading "GEORGIA: Has An LG Race Ever Meant So Much?" »

Hotline After Dark -- Newt Gets Darker

The Israeli/Lebanon fighting dominated TV last night, with correspondents filing reports from all over the region. And the Pres. Bush/PM Blair conversation got plenty of air play.

NBC's Gregory: "Nobody from the White House is backing away from this. Aboard Air Force one coming home, Tony Snow, the press secretary, told the pool reporters that the president read a transcript of what was actually heard around the world and seen and he kind of rolled his eyes, according to Snow and laughed it off" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/17).

MSNBC's Matthews: "Well, to use a yiddishist, I guess he was saying for Hezbollah to stop all its kaka" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/17).

FNC's Baier: "Senior aides say while the president's remarks caught on that open microphone were more blunt, they basically mirror his public comments on the issue that world leaders have to speak with one voice to address the root causes of the Middle East crisis" ("Special Report," 7/17).

CNN's Malveaux: "The White House spokesman says that while the president's private comments may have been more blunt, that they certainly are consistent with what the president has said publicly in calling for peace in the Middle East" ("Situation Room," 7/17).

STILL READY FOR WAR

Newt Gingrich, on his WWIII comments: "When you have bombings in India, you have war going on in Afghanistan, you have war going on in Iraq, you have a war going on in Gaza and south Lebanon, you have Syria and Libya and North Korea actively plotting to defeat the democracies, you have Ahmadinejad, the leader of Iran, saying publicly he wants to defeat the Americans and eliminate Israel from the face of the Earth, you have people plotting to blow up New York tunnels, you have Canadians planning to blow up the parliament and behead the prime minister, my point is we are in a war" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 7/17). [EMILY GOODIN]

DCCC Reserves Time

The DCCC has reserved around $20M worth of TV time in at least 14 media markets around the country, according to an email sent out to targeted GOP members by the NRCC. A DCCC source wouldn't confirm which districts they bought in, but did acknowledge the early buy had been made.

GOPers say the Dems have bought time in Cedar Rapids, IA (IA 01 and 03), Denver (CO 07), Philadelphia (PA 06, 07, 08), Miami and West Palm Beach (FL 22), Hartford (CT 02, 04, 05), Albuquerque (NM 01), Tucson (AZ 08) and all the markets (Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Evansville, Lexington, Louisville, Cincinnati and Charleston) that broadcast into IN 08, IN 09 and KY 04.

Do the math and it is clear that the DCCC is locking in time in all the CDs that are widely viewed as the most competitive -- except one. Are Dems so confident in reclaiming Rep. Bob Ney's (R) seat that they don't feel the need to spend the money to reserve time on the five media markets that make up the sprawling OH 18?

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Knotts Says No In SC

Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) dodged a bullet.

State Sen. Jake Knotts won't petition to share the ballot with him.

The why is hard to tell. Knotts had enough signatures. But he says he wouldn't have been able to raise the money -- at least $2 million.

Was there any White House pressure, we wonder?

Dr. Frist's Medical Blog

Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) has a new medical blog.

It's called Medical Matters, and it promises a 21st Century Debate of Health Care Issues.

Writes Frist: "MedicalMatters.org is a blog about health care and the politics of health care. In the coming days and weeks we will discuss stem cells, avian flu, electronic medical records, Health Savings Accounts, and much more. We will take a long term look at some of the health care challenges facing the country and start an online discussion encouraging different points of view. I will blog regularly as will 10-12 regular bloggers from a variety of health care-related fields. We will also encourage high profile, guest bloggers to join the discussion."

Doyle's First Ad

WI Gov. Jim Doyle (D) will air the first television ad of his campaign tomorrow. The 60-second spot is called "promise," and it features regular Wisconsin residents talking about the promise of their state under the governor. (140K new jobs, a third year of high school math and science, keeping his promise not to raise taxes, etc.)

It even mentions stem cells.

The tag line: "Jim Doyle. Doing the right thing for Wisconsin."

Rep. Mark Green (R) has yet to air his first general election ad.

You can watch Doyle's ad here.

Hotline TV: Georgia Gets Uglier and Uglier

In this week's episode:

We've talked all we can about Lieberman and Lamont, so how about Farrell, Courtney and Murphy? Is CT Sen hurting Dem chances at taking back the House?

Two hot contests in GA come up on Tuesday. What do they, and CT Sen, have in common? They're ugly and getting uglier. Seems to be the case with a lot of primaries this year.

You usually can't throw a rock without hitting a Southern GOPer running for Pres. But after Barbour and J. Bush dropped out, where'd the Southern GOPers go? There has to be at least one on the ticket, right?

Finally, jumping on -- or off -- a lot of bandwagons: We're done with a few Sen candidates, but we like others more and more.

And, of course, the fastest 2 minutes in politics.

House Race Hotline Update: Vote Of Confidence

It's always something of a red flag when a challenger outraises an incumbent in a given quarter, and by now we know that several Dems have done just that, including those opposing PA Reps. Gerlach (06), Weldon (07), and Fitzpatrick (08), Rep. Shays (CT-04) and Rep. Ney (OH-18).

Other targeted incumbents are still outraising their competition, including Reps. Shaw (R-FL 22) and Pryce(R-OH 15), though neither can afford to rest on his or her laurels.

Past a certain point, of course, candidates tend to receive diminishing returns on each extra dollar that comes in, and none of these incumbents will really be hurting for cash through election day. Nevertheless, it's undeniably a thrill for any challenger to outraise his or her opponent, and perhaps most importantly, signals a strong vote of confidence in those few lucky challengers. [QUINN MCCORD]

Hotline's Sunday Snapshot: Conflagration

Middle East talk dominated the Sunday shows this weekend. Sec/State Condoleezza Rice made the morning rounds.

Rice: "We have to be committed to dealing not just with the immediate crisis, but to laying a foundation so that when we are out of this set of circumstances, we don't have repeated violence again. We all want a cessation of the violence, but we also want a return to the international framework -- Resolution 1559 in the case of Lebanon, the road map in the case of the Palestinian territories -- that will give us a permanent and firm foundation, rather than a cessation of violence that would be held hostage to the next time that Hezbollah or Hamas decide that they want to attack Israeli territory" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 7/16).

More: "Israel has a right to defend itself. No country would sit and continue to receive rocket fire against civilian populations and not try to do something about it. What we have asked of the Israelis is that they act in a way to avoid innocent civilian casualties, to avoid the destruction of civilian infrastructure" ("Fox News Sunday," 7/16).

She noted: "We can have a cessation of violence, but we'll be right back here three weeks from now, talking about another cessation of violence because we will be at the whims of Hezbollah or Hamas for launching the next attack."

On possible dangers to the U.S.: "We are certainly going to do whatever we need to do to increase vigilance, because this is a time in which the Middle East is facing not just a crisis, but a crisis that is clarifying the choices. ... We just want to be careful and vigilant. And we also want all parties to know, any extremist parties to know, that the United States will, of course, protect itself."

She continues: "This is a very turbulent time as the Middle East changes. But it is better to have a Middle East that is changing in the direction in which moderate and democratic forces can take hold than to pretend that everything is just fine in the Middle East, and that we're somehow going to get a stable Middle East out of appeasing and dealing with extremist forces. We should have learned at least by September 11th that that wasn't going to happen" ("This Week," ABC, 7/16).

WH Counselor Dan Bartlett: "What President Bush is focused on, both in his conversations with the people in the region as well as the leaders here at the G-8, is let's get people focused back on the root causes, so we can clearly define what the challenges are. We all want the violence to stop. ... President Bush is deeply concerned about the plight of innocent civilians on both sides of this conflict, and he will work hard, and he will do whatever necessary. And if that requires dispatching somebody to the region, I'm sure he would do that. But right now, we believe the proper focus is getting the international community all on the same page, which we believe can happen in the coming days."

More: "What you're seeing differently than in past times, you've always heard ... people condemning Israel. What we're hearing new this time is that we're seeing moderate forces in the Middle East, as well as Europeans leaders and other leaders here at the G-8, saying Hezbollah has started this, Hezbollah is the culprit here, and we are a growing united voice on that front" ("Late Edition," CNN, 7/16).

Continue reading "Hotline's Sunday Snapshot: Conflagration" »

Bayh Now

Sen. Evan Bayh is scheduled to speak at the press club today at 10am in a speech entitled, "The American Middle Class: Future of the Nation, Future of the Democratic Party." Afterwards he's flying Iowa to make the same speech in Des Moines.

Some excerpts, courtesyAll America PAC:

Middle Class Americans know that President Bush and his Administration represent the privileged. They know that Democrats stand for those less fortunate, and proudly so. They look to Washington and see a government absorbed in self-interest. Who speaks for them, those neither rich nor poor? Too often, their answer is "no one." For the future of our nation and the future of my Party, that must change. If this President will not speak for our Middle Class, I will. And if Democrats want to lead this nation, we must.

As Democrats and Americans, we must build an "Opportunity Society" to strengthen our Middle Class. We must confront the challenges Middle Class Americans face - health care costs, college affordability, retirement security and more - so that all can build lives of greater prosperity and promise. And we must reward hard work, thrift and ingenuity so that all who aspire to it can join the Middle Class. This must be the work of our generation. It has not been the work of President Bush and this Administration.

Continue reading "Bayh Now" »

The On Call Daily Troika: SC, IA and NH

A brief digest of what's buzzing in IA, NH and SC... a semi-regular On Call feature. And when the nomination calendars get set, we'll add more states.

One More Item To Munch On

If you weren't totally satisfied with your brunch, this chicken should do the trick.

The Saturday Brunch

WHAT'S BREWING

The Weekender: Two Theories Of The Democratic '08 Field

“The real issues we face are no longer right vs. left or conservative vs. liberal. They're about past vs. future. Our challenge, as Democrats, is to reclaim our role as the party of the future."

Here's what Sen. Evan Bayh said just this past weekend in Iowa -- a paragraph he has used elsewhere.

"I really think this needs to be about something other than ideology. You know, not left vs. right, but moving forward rather than being stuck the way we are today. And I've got a record of moving my state forward -- tangible accomplishments that matter in people's lives."

Sound similar?

It's easy to see this as Warner and Bayh competing for a position in the frame wars or, if you're less charitable, to interpret the code as "screw the angry liberals"; or, if you're mean, hear it as platitudinous and mundane.

Here's another way:

Half of the Democratic field has a shot at being Hillary Clinton's vice president.

So – unless she either doesn’t run or appears very vulnerable early on , one theory of the case holds that they will spend their time cozying up to her and tearing into each other. (Grover Norquist endorses that theory, too.) At least in part, they’ll try to use the primaries to audition for the general election.

To be clear: Bayh, Warner, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack -- they all want to be president, not vice president. But they will almost certainly hedge their bets. They will not run a true-blue, rouse-the-base primary campaign. Their candidacies will be at least partially constructed to harness the foresight of primary voters who are looking to see who can take on John McCain or Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney in the general -- with or without Hillary.

A counterarrgument holds that these similar statements, both reflecting a pragmatic, put-yourself-above-partisanship orientation, are signals to Democratic primary voters that Clinton is too polarizing to win the general election.

There's probably some truth in both. [MARC AMBINDER]

Breaking Political News Alerts: never miss a moment.

Hotline After Dark: highlights of the nightly chat shows

The Daily Troika: morning updates from IA, NH and SC

The Futures Market: the rising stars of politics, state-by-state

The Weekender: : what's on the minds of Hotline writers?

Buzz Columns : Weekly columns from Hotline editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio.

The Blogometer:: We distill the essence of the political blogosphere's zeitgeist -- every day.

Consultant's Corner : the latest trends in political consulting.

House Race Hotline Updates : dispatches and analysis of the hottest House races.

Election Nights: : real-time results and instant analysis of every major primary -- and we'll be live all fall.

The Hotline's Race Rankings : realEvery month for the rest of the election cycle, get an early line on WH 2008, as well as the latest rankings, commentary and analysis on all '06 Senate, House and governor races.

The Big Number: 1

He's one of the most endangered incumbents in the country. He's taken more campaign contributions from Jack Abramoff-related donors than any other member of Congress. Yet in a Dem-sponsored poll, Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) only trails his Dem opponent, State Sen. Pres. Jon Tester, by one point -- 43%-42% in a just released Lake Research Partners (D) survey.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by approximately the same percentage of Big Sky voters -- 46% for Burns and 48% for Tester -- but Tester's got a lot more potential upside, as just 18% view him unfavorably, while 50% see Burns unfavorably. That's 4% who have yet to make up their minds about the senator, while 34% still have to form opinions on Tester.

So Tester may have a larger potential upside, but we doubt we're the only ones doing a double-take while reading these numbers. Many, we guess, expected Tester's lead to be much larger than it is. [REID WILSON]

HRC Has $22M+ On Hand

Sen. Hillary Clinton's re-election campaign raised $5.7M in the second quarter and has more than $22M on hand.
According to a release, the "campaign received 38,377 individual contributions during this quarter. Reflecting the campaign’s strong grassroots base, 34,923 or 91% of individual contributions were $100 or less." And "Six thousand two hundred and nine (6,209) individuals contributed for the first time in this quarter."

Poll Update: Illinois

A new poll out today from Garin/Hart/Yang (D) conducted for IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) gives the incumbent a double-digit lead over challenger Judy Baar Topinka. 604 likely voters were surveyed; the margin of error is +/- 4.1 percnt. 22 percent of the electorate remains undecided.

BTW: Wonder why we stay away from Zogby Online or Rasmussen polls? Here's our explanation.

DNC To Nation: Don't Count Us Out

DNC exec. dir. Tom McMahon, sent a sharply worded letter to the editor of The Nation, takes reporter Ari Berman to task for his story about the DNC's GOTV plans.

We've obtained the letter, which you read in full after the jump.

The news: the DNC's budget for GOTV efforts exceeds $11 million.

From the letter:

Contrary to the implication of the Berman article, the DNC has a sound political plan for 2006 that contemplates the investment of unprecedented resources. For the 2006 races, the DNC will spend upwards of $11 million in hard money, (we can no longer raise soft money) helping to elect Democrats at every level, across America. Under this plan, we will spend roughly 10 times what the DNC was able to do with hard money four years ago, when the DNC spent $1.6 million for coordinated campaigns.

Berman cites blind quotes about hopes that the DNC would take the lead in a field organization. What Berman failed to tell your readers is that, in fact, we have always intended to play this role and are doing so partly out of concern that the 2006 Democratic efforts not repeat the mistakes of 2002, when too great an emphasis was placed solely on television advertising. In 1998 and 2002, millions were spent almost exclusively on television advertising. Looking at the results, most would conclude that the strategy didn’t work. We agree that we cannot make those same mistakes again, and we will not do so.

Here's what we can add:

==several DNC officials say that the DNC will not transfer money in bulk to either the DSCC or the DCCC. It will funding races and coordinated campaign progtrams in targeted states.

==At some point within the past few weeks, DNC chair Howard Dean and DSCC chair Chuck Schumer had a cordial and productive meeting that left both sides content about the plan.

==Per Lynn Sweet:

Emanuel is pressuring Dean to keep a pot of money around to spend on his highest priority House races. Dean is willing to fork over some cash to Emanuel, but does not want to give him a blank check. This matter has been played out in the insider political press since May.

A spokesman for Emanuel at the DCCC declined to comment; the DNC also refused to talk about internal conflicts.

Continue reading "DNC To Nation: Don't Count Us Out" »

Consultants Corner: Sending Out An SMS

Any questions, comments or thoughts about what you've seen in Consultants' Corner, or what you'd like to see, email us.

Joined by GOP strategist Mary Matalin, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) launched his re-election campaign's text messaging initiative during a woman's outreach breakfast 6/19. Attendees were encouraged to text "LEADING" to a PA phone number to receive a return text message that read: "From Keeping Women's Docs in PA to Allowing Parents the Freedom to Work from Home, Rick Santorum is Leading 4 Women. Look 4 Msgs with More Information."

Santorum Dir. of New Media and Political Technology Mindy Finn says the campaign is working with Pittsburg Base, a firm experienced in SMS (Short Messaging Service) on the commercial side and who are strong supporters of the senator. The system is conducted through an online interface allowing the campaign to manage themselves by monitoring how many texts, which are limited to 160 characters each, are sent out. Finn notes the cost of the system is "comparable" to other types of technology. [KATHERINE LEHR]

Continue reading "Consultants Corner: Sending Out An SMS" »

The Outrage Files, Day Two

Some updates on the DCCC video fracas:

The On Call Daily Troika: Updates from IA, SC and NH

A brief digest of what's buzzing in IA, NH and SC... a semi-regular On Call feature. And when the nomination calendars get set, we'll add more states.

Hotline After Dark -- All-Out War?

The Tour de France continued its race while cable raced to cover the situation between Israel and Lebanon. Besides reports from various correspondents, several shows had potential '08ers on to give their takes:

Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist was in the "Situation Room."

On Israel: "They have the right to defend themselves, and you ask really are we doing enough now. We need to continue to call, as a country and as an international community, of the immediate release of these captive soldiers. And that may take some of the pressure off, but absolutely not. I think Israel is acting appropriately. They have every right to be able to defend themselves, and I am sure that we're going to continue to be supportive."

He was also asked about stem cell research.

Frist: "First of all, we ought to point out that the president was the first president to ever support embryonic stem cell research with federal dollars. ... The larger implications that we'll be talking about on Monday and Tuesday are how far should the federal government go to support what is legal today -- that is embryonic stem cell research -- as well as support other type of research that stops short of the destruction of the embryo which I am very much in favor of."

Asked if there are enough votes to override a veto: "I think we don't know at this juncture. One of the reasons I wanted to take, and responsibly take, three different bills that had to do with the research at the embryo level and at the fetus level is to allow everybody the opportunity to position themselves on what is a very, very tough issue, to reflect where the American people are, where individual consciences are among the various senators" (CNN, 7/13).

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) was on "NewsHour" and "Hardball."

On his recent visit to Iraq: "My concern is: I don't see a plan. I don't see an initiative from the administration that indicates to me how they're going to lead their way through this, by disarming the militia, getting a Sunni buy-in, and keeping the neighbors out" ("NewsHour," PBS, 7/13).

On the situation between Israel and Lebanon: "It's going to not spiral into a full-blown war, but I do think there's going to be an awful lot of trouble for the next several months. ... We're kind of AWOL here in terms of generating international pressure on Syria and on Lebanon, to deal with what is an obvious, obvious breach of security on the part of Hezbollah" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/13).

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) was on "LKL."

Hagel, on the Israeli/Lebanon situation: "I would advise the president to pick someone like Colin Powell or Jim Baker, two individuals who have the capability, the world stature and trust, the experience to do something about this. The fact is Secretary Rice is bogged down daily, hourly, minute-to-minute with so many responsibilities. This is a time now crisis focuses discipline. It focuses what we need to do" (CNN, 7/13).

There was not a lot of talk of Valerie Plame's suit against VP Cheney and WH Deputy CoS Karl Rove. FNC's O'Reilly made it his most ridiculous item of the day. It was the fifth story on "Countdown." MSNBC's Olbermann: "The filing comes on this eve of the third anniversary of Robert Novak's column, which first outed Ms. Plame, is not a coincidence. Legally, Ms. Plame had three years after the alleged violation to file suit under the Privacy Act" (7/13). Otherwise, most shows gave it a quick mention and went back to the situation in the Middle East. [EMILY GOODIN]

Understanding Al Gore

Al Gore gave a speech last night to the National Association of State Treasurers’ meeting in West Virginia. He spoke about the perils of global warming, and, like all his recent talks on the issue, the event was closed off to the press.

For West Virginia reporters, the slight was unconscionably painful. In his column this morning, Metro News’ Hoppy Kercheval recounts the tragedy, describing how papers were informed about the event only to shockingly -- almost cruelly -- find out later about Gore’s closed-door policy. For Kercheval, and legions of reporters like him, there’s a genuine attempt to reconcile this departure from normal press-public figure conventions.

Why, Gore. Why?

While there is certainly some merit to being upset, it's hard to dispute the logic in Gore’s move. For Gore, the media’s portrayal of global warming is a prime example of how a press, so obsessed with balance and objectivity, can be counterproductive and even perilous. Gore knows that for 99% of the scientific community, global warming is not a "debate," but a fact.

Yet, in almost every article written about the issue reporters seem to find one of those three scientists who dispute the conventional science. After all, they need to get that clutch “balanced” quote, right? But as a result, global warming is disseminated to, and thus digested in, the public as far more contentious than it actually is.

There are other reasons Gore could dislike and distrust the media -- Love Canal, "we're putting Florida back in the undecided column," and Bush's lowered expectations in the '00 debates all come to mind. But it’s more likely Gore knows by now that every time he’s sought out by the press, so is “scientist” x .

To see “Inconvenient Truth” is to watch a man truly grappling with why this issue--this issue that seems be so electrifying clear to him-- hasn’t caught on with the public. There is one point in the film when Gore gets out a sharpie and begins to jot down the obstacles he faces in conveying his message. We don't see it at the time, but with every West Virginia reporter he leaves flailing story-less in his path, isn’t it obvious Gore scrawled down “media”? And isn’t it also kind of understandable? [NORA MCALVANAH]

VolPAC's Quarter; Jim Dyke's A Free Agent

For the quarter, Sen. Bill Frist's VolPAC raised $1.5 million from 20,000 donors, spent $1.4 million and ended the period with 620K on hand.

We hear that Jim Dyke, a former RNC comm. dir. who served as an adviser to VolPAC and Frist's Senate office, did not renew his contract. Dyke, who hails from South Carolina, is now a free agent. Dyke confirmed that his departure from VolPAC but declined further comment.

Today, Frist officially named ex-RGA exec dir/ex-Iowa GOP chair Brian Kennedy to chair VolPAC's Iowa branch. [MARC AMBINDER]

Politicizing Iraq: Spratt Gives Credibility To GOP's "Outrage"

The Republicans have done it. They have gotten at least one House Dem to take the bait regarding their "outrage" over the DCCC fundraising video (see previous On Call post). Rep. John Spratt (D-SC) one of the few remaining Southern Democrats who doesn't represent a minority-majority district has called on DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel to pull the ad in question because of the depiction of flag-draped coffins. This is exactly what the GOP hoped would happen. They just needed one credible Dem to join them in this. BTW, Spratt is facing his most serious challenge in years via Republican Ralph Norman.

The AP story by Seanna Adcox follows:

Continue reading "Politicizing Iraq: Spratt Gives Credibility To GOP's "Outrage"" »

Big Sky Tie

A Lake Research poll taken 6/20-6/26 for state Senate Pres. Jon Tester (D) shows him in a statistical tie with Sen. Conrad Burns (R), leading him 43%-42%, with 3% for the Libertarian and 12% undecided. That's a pretty good place for a Senate challenger to be only 4 months out from election day, though GOPers might note that Tester has actually held slightly larger leads in previous public polls. The Lake poll has quite a large sample size (1200 LVs, +/-2.8% MoE) and shows Burns with a fav/unfav of 46%/50% compared to Tester's 48%/18%.

BREAKING: Hastert Hospitalized

Just announced by the Speaker's press office. More about what's he been diagnosed with here

Release below:

(Washington, DC) – Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert today was admitted to Bethesda Naval Hospital to be treated for a bacterial infection of the skin known as cellulitis.

The Speaker’s physician is requiring him to remain at the hospital over the weekend and be off his feet for at least 72 hours so that it can be properly treated with intravenous antibiotics before returning to his normal schedule next week.

The Speaker discovered the infection located on his lower left leg and applied a topical ointment to the area. After a few days, he had the infection examined by his doctor today at Bethesda Naval Hospital and was diagnosed with cellulitis.

Please find a description of Cellulitis below:

Cellulitis (sel-u-LI-tis) is a bacterial infection of the skin. Cellulitis appears as a swollen, red area of skin that feels hot and tender, and it may spread rapidly without treatment.
.

Joe Wilson To Sue Cheney, Rove, Libby

Looks like Robert Luskin hasn't billed his last hour in the Plame case.

Who's Politicizing Iraq?

We've refrained from posting about the DCCC's controversial web video in part because we're fairly sure that by the end of the cycle, Democrats and Republicans will have exhausted themselves by lobbying charges and counter-charges of War Politicking.

These symbolic political clashes are important, and they tend to influence the all important "frame" that both parties like to think they have, but with Israel/Lebanon, Bush in Germany, North Korea, Iraq, Haynes and everything else -- the debate so far seems contrived.

The GOP clearly wants the media -- national and local -- to pick up the story, as evidenced by a sudden surge in statements from GOP candidates and the on-camera press conferences Tom Reynolds and others are holding.

The RNC even YouTubed the video, which they called "disgusting."

The DCCC just sent us a memo entitled "REPUBLICAN HYPOCRITICAL PLAN TO USE IRAQ AS A CAMPAIGN STRATEGY," which we've posted after the jump.

We've also pasted in an NRCC e-mail with lots of their candidate statements.

Continue reading "Who's Politicizing Iraq?" »

House Race Hotline Update: Keystone Correction?

Although not as fully successful as their FL redistricting plan, GOPers certainly had much to be proud of in PA back in '02.

Despite the loss of then-Rep. George Gekas (R), the GOP won 12 of 19 House seats (63%) in a state which Pres. Bush lost twice. Dems are hungry to even the score and are targeting Reps. Jim Gerlach (R-PA 06), Curt Weldon (R-PA 07), Mike Fitzpatrick (R-08) and Don Sherwood (R-10). All save Sherwood are in CDs won by Al Gore and John Kerry. BTW: Chris Carney has joined the DCCC's Red to Blue program.

Perhaps most significantly, '04 nominee/atty. Lois Murphy (D) outraised Gerlach by a massive margin during the 2ndQ, and even finished up with more CoH. Ex-Admiral Joe Sestak (D) isn't in that league yet, but the DCCC may be signaling that they consider him a top-tier challenger. Dems controlled a majority of the PA House delegation as recently as 2000. Will they again in '07? [QUINN MCCORD]

Warner Plays In IA Ag Sec Race

Rob Sand, campaign manager for IA Sec/Agriculture candidate Denise O'Brien, sent us this e-mail.

We here at the Denise O'Brien for Secretary of Agriculture campaign are pleased to announce that during Mark Warner's visit to Des Moines this week, he confirmed that his Forward Together PAC will be making a $10,000 contribution to the O'Brien for Agriculture campaign. In addition to being an organic farmer for 30 years, Denise is a global leader in agriculture and the only woman on the ballot for statewide office in Iowa this year.

Sand writes that IA Gov. Tom Vilsack also contributed $10K. Sand: "We are particularly encouraged that Warner followed Vilsack's lead for the precedent it sets, and are hoping the rest of the crowd will do so as well. It is wonderful to see Democrats rallying together around Denise's candidacy and we are so glad that Vilsack and Warner led the way."

Vilsack, it is worth noting, backed O'Brien's rival in the Dem primary.

7/13: A Contrast in Styles?

Looking at Hugh Hewitt's latest anti-Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) rant, the Blogometer was struck by how similar it sounded to DailyKos and MyDD critiques of Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT). Like his lefty doppelgangers, Hewitt is more upset with a prominent Senator from his own party because of that Senator's willingness to buy into opposition attacks on his own party. Also attempting to mimic the left, Patrick Casey at NRO takes the NRSC to task for siding with Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) in his contest with Cranston Mayor Steven Laffey.

Meanwhile the best trafficked blog on the right, Instapundit hosts a civil discussion with McCain on a wide range of topics. While the two have their differences (campaign finance reform being the biggest), Instapundit chooses to disagree on that subject and instead highlight their agreements (limiting GOP spending).

Today's Edition

David Yepsen Has A Blog

which is fabulous news.

Attention: Lee Bandy, John DiStaso, Maureen Groppe, Fred Dicker -- we urge you to join Jo Mannies and David Lightman and Adam Smith and now David Yepsen.

And if the Register could just get the RSS/XML feeds to work, we'd be set for life.

On The Trail: CT SEN: It Ain't About The War

His unwavering support for President Bush on Iraq was simply the tipping point. If this was just about Iraq, then many of the rank-and-file Democratic activists who are supporting Lamont would be biting their tongues on Iraq and sticking with Lieberman. The "Iraq" in this equation has been oversimplified.

Lieberman has been living on the edge with the party's base for some time, beginning with his "sermon on the mount" critique of former President Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewinsky mess. During the 2000 campaign, there were two moments many Democrats won't ever forget involving Lieberman: (1) his overly nice-guy approach toward Dick Cheney in the vice presidential debate; and (2) when he went against Al Gore's legal team in regards to the rules involving military ballots.

Continue reading On The Trail.

2006 RACE RANKINGS The top races remain the same, but Doug Duncan's withdrawal in Maryland pushes that contest into the top five, ahead of slightly downgraded races in Iowa, Colorado and Alaska. Plus:   Senate races · The '08 race · House races

CT SEN Update: Schlesinger To Fight...

The Hartford Courant's Kevin F. Rennie has another exclusive dispatch from Connecticut.

Connecticut Republican Senate nominee Alan Schlesinger is expected to try to mount a fightback today as revelations about his gambling under an assumed name caused Republican Governor M. Jodi Rell to call on her Republican ticketmate “to seriously consider whether he should go forward.”

Schlesinger, whose memory was refreshed throughout the day on Wednesday, took a shot at Rell by raising the ballooning fundraising and cover-up scandal involving Rell’s chief of staff. Rell has ignored calls to fire her majordomo. Referring to that sensitive issue won’t help Schlesinger rally party support.

A Schlesinger press conference ought to be the nearest thing to having the circus in town. The former state Representative has a colorful past which has surfaced in other campaigns. He ran twice unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for congress in the Fifth Congressional district in 1990 and 1998. A bid for the nomination to the state Senate in the Naugatuck Valley was also unsuccessful. At the time, Schlesinger took a battering over questions of his use of a state-issued telephone credit card.

Always eager to wave his degree from Wharton, he may be reluctant to admit his campaign is a failing enterprise. On Wednesday, he declined to provide specifics on his campaign fundraising, though he probably has not had to spend much of the $500,000 of his own money he pledged to use to match contributions.

Nearly everyone who served with Schlesinger in the legislature has a story about him, so today’s press conference may veer into areas other than the gambling life of Alan Gold, his casino pseudonym.

The On Call Daily Troika: Updates From IA, NH, and SC

A brief digest of what's buzzing in IA, NH and SC... a semi-regular On Call feature. And when the nomination calendars get set, we'll add more states.

Hotline After Dark: Make It Work, Washington!

"Project Runway" returns and Bob Novak sewed up questions regarding his role in Valerie Plame case:

Novak: "I called Rove. ... I called him for several reasons. I wanted to talk about the column I was writing about the mission to Niger. This is also, as almost all my conversations with Rove were, was not for attribution. And in the course of that, I asked him about Wilson's wife at the CIA working at the CIA and initiating this visit. And, as I remember the conversation very distinctly, Karl said to me, 'Yes, I know that, too.' And I took that as confirmation."

More: "Bill Harlow then said to me that, although she would likely never have another assignment abroad, he said it might be embarrassing if her CIA connection was written, and he asked me not to write it."

FNC's Hume: "Did he say her status was classified?"

Novak: "No, he did not." More: "He asked me not to write it. A lot of people ask me not to write things. I thought it was a pro forma request. He says, now, that he was very strong on it. I believe he was not" ("Special Report," 7/12).

More Novak: "The first source, who I have not identified, was the major source who informed me that Valerie Plame Wilson, Joe Wilson's wife, worked at the CIA."

He noted: "Let me assure you that neither my primary source mentioned Valerie Plame's name to me, nor did Karl Rove mention the name to me, nor did the CIA spokesman. They just talked about Joe Wilson's wife. I got her name from 'Who's Who.'"

Asked if people will ever learn his original source, Novak: "I bet you will" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 7/12).

On why he's never identified his original source: "Because he's never come forward. ... I'm not going to do any further identification on that, whether he's in the government or not. I really do believe that he has to come forward" ("Special Report," 7/12).

Continue reading "Hotline After Dark: Make It Work, Washington!" »

Frist Adds To Iowa Staff

Caucus Cooler reports that former state party chair / IA-01 candidate Brian Kennedy will "play a major role" at VolPAC, Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist's political action committee.

Kennedy just completed an unsuccessful bid for the Republican Nomination in the 1st District. He finished 3rd in a 3 way Primary, with Mike Whalen becoming the party’s nominee. Kennedy started the Campaign of One, a grassroots organization designed to help Republicans in 2004. Before running for Congress, Kennedy lobbied for the influential (and Iowa heavy) DCI Group. Kennedy also played a major role in the caucus campaign of Lamar Alexander (another Tennessean). It was widely reported that he was behind the attacks against George W. Bush, accusing then Governor Bush of past substance abuse. It will be interesting to see if Frist employs similar tactics against the frontrunners in ‘08. Clearly, Kennedy has lots of experience in caucus politics and he is very experienced in the grassroots style campaign that is so critical to winning in Iowa.

Katherine Harris's Campaign Staff To Resign

The high command of Rep. Katherine Harris's FL Senate bid plans to resign by the end of the week, two people familiar with the campaign tell the Hotline.

The departing staff includes Glen Hodas, Harris's campaign manager, her spokesperson, Chris Ingram, and Pat Thomas, her field director. The status of Harris's chief fundraiser, Erin Delullo, is not clear.

The resignations will take effect by Friday, according to the sources. TooConservative, a Virginia-based blog, first reported this afternoon that several staffers would quit.

One person involved in the campaign said there was no single precipitating factor. "She's just very difficult to work with. It's all the same stuff. The more than we put her out there, the more she shot herself in the foot," this person said.

This slate of staff lasted just three and a half months; in April, Harris lost her campaign manager, Jamie Miller, and strategist Ed Rollins. Both have since become outspoken critics of Harris's.

Harris, one of several Republicans running for the GOP nomination, trails incumbent Bill Nelson by more than 20 points in the latest polls. She is mired in the federal investigation into defense contractor MZM, has claimed that several House Democrats in Florida want her to win, has called attention to an alleged illegal contribution to Nelson that also implicated her staff and has had what one staffer called "tantrums."

She began a two-week campaign swing through the state last week.

Harris will have surgery later this month to remove an ovarian mass. [MARC AMBINDER]

Update: Harris's office just sent out this e-mail:

(Tampa, Fla.) -- Katherine Harris announced today she has accepted the resignation of her communications director Chris Ingram from her U.S. Senate campaign. My campaign appreciates the effort and energy Chris brought to the job. He served in an important role in my campaign and he did a great job, and I wish him well,” said Harris. “I wish Katherine and the campaign well, and look forward to returning to managing my company, 411 Communications,” Ingram said. Contrary to earlier reports, Harris has only accepted the resignation of Chris Ingram. On Monday, Katherine Harris undergoes surgery for a previously described medical condition. “I look forward to returning to the campaign trail swiftly following my medical procedure,” said Harris.

Update From CT: Schlesinger To Be Chased From Race?

Hartford Courant columnist Kevin F. Rennie sends along this late breaking news:

Expect calls for Connecticut Republican United States Senate nominee Alan Schlesinger to abandon his race to begin in the next several days. Questions are being raised about the former state representative’s gambling habits that have Republicans sounding rattled.

A persistent government critic and former state police casino licensing commander Bradley Beecher sent emails early this week raising questions about Schlesinger. The ones that have Republicans talking are that their Senate candidate is, in casino parlance, a card counter and has used a “Wampum Card” (the Foxwood casino loyalty card that gets gamblers points for spending money) under the assumed name of “Alan Gold”. Schlesinger said today that he does have a card under that name but has not used it “in this decade.” The candidate, sounding agitated in a phone conversation, says he does recall being told by a casino official that he should not be playing blackjack at their facility.

The most serious trouble for Schlesinger, however, comes from Republican state chairman George Gallo, who told me this afternoon that the gambling questions raise “a lot of questions which Mr. Schlesinger is going to have to answer in the next couple of days.” Gallo, who is close to Republican Governor M. Jodi Rell, said, “Our mistake is that we only vetted candidates using their real names.”

Gallo has spoken to Schlesinger and sounded, without providing specifics for the record, unimpressed with the candidates explanations. The party chair would be unlikely to have been so critical of the Republican nominee without a signal from Rell’s office.

Hounding Schlesinger off the ticket would open an opportunity for a wealthy Republican aspirant to join what could be a three way race after the August 8th Democratic primary in which challenger Ned Lamont is closing in on incumbent Joseph Lieberman. Three termer Lieberman has obtained petitions to secure a spot on the ballot as an independent should he lose to Lamont next month.

Republicans are rumored to have some moguls of their own interested in jumping into the fray. Forcing Schlesinger off the ballot would be the first step. He won’t go quietly, you can bet on that.

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Endangered House GOPers Seek Summer Cover

A group of 25 moderate House Republicans -- most of them affiliated with the Northeast/Midwest-heavy GOP labor caucus -- have penned a letter to Maj Leader John Boehner seeking a vote to increase the minimum wage before the August recess. The list of signees includes many of the House GOP Conference's most vulnerable members: All three from CT, NY Rep's John Sweeney and Jim Walsh, plus PA'ans Curt Weldon and Michael Fitzpatrick.

Not on the list? Rep's Bob Ney (OH) and Jim Gerlach (PA), perhaps the two most vulnerable House incumbents. Both have said previously that they support a minimum wage increase, but they and their endangered colleagues have hung with the party in opposing procedural efforts by House Dems to force a vote on the issue.

But with over 1/2 dozen Dem challengers filing FEC reports showing $1M+ cash on hand and grim polling continuing to come back from the field, some may be tempted to follow Rep. Chris Shays's (CT) lead in signing the discharge petition. These Republicans from Dem-leaning districts desperately want to get on the record supporting a minimum wage increase.

It is tough year to run as blue-state Republican, and they need all the legislative favors Boehner and the leadership can provide. Having to vote against motions allowing a minimum wage vote every week Congress is in session into the fall isn't one of them.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

UPDATE: Looks like Boehner and Co released the Conference. By a margin of 260-159, the House this afternoon passed a non-binding "motion to instruct" procedure in support of upping the minimum wage to $7.25 per-hour. Though symbolic, the vote allows the vulnerable GOPers to point to an actual vote matching their promises. All the endangered GOPers on the letter voted 'yea,' as did Ney and Gerlach.

The vote also provides the Dems with a record of which GOPers can now be targeted as having opposed increasing the minimum wage. Those opposing it, as Rahm surely scribbled down, included: Mike Sodrel (IN), Charlie Taylor (NC), Thelma Drake (VA), Dave Reichert (WA) and J.D. Hayworth (AZ).

Oh, and we are told that Ney should've been on the above letter all along, but was accidentally omitted. He is on now.

Warner Signs Jim Jordan

JIm Jordan, one of the brightest stars in the Democratic strategic firmament, has signed on with Gov. Mark Warner's Forward Together PAC.

He will serve as a part-time senior adviser, and a Warner aide said Jordan will primarily