The Big Number: 1

He's one of the most endangered incumbents in the country. He's taken more campaign contributions from Jack Abramoff-related donors than any other member of Congress. Yet in a Dem-sponsored poll, Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) only trails his Dem opponent, State Sen. Pres. Jon Tester, by one point -- 43%-42% in a just released Lake Research Partners (D) survey.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by approximately the same percentage of Big Sky voters -- 46% for Burns and 48% for Tester -- but Tester's got a lot more potential upside, as just 18% view him unfavorably, while 50% see Burns unfavorably. That's 4% who have yet to make up their minds about the senator, while 34% still have to form opinions on Tester.

So Tester may have a larger potential upside, but we doubt we're the only ones doing a double-take while reading these numbers. Many, we guess, expected Tester's lead to be much larger than it is. [REID WILSON]