August 2006

The Association of Trial Lawyers of America just purchased $500K in TV and radio ads, targeting five incumbents. But what's interesting about the buy is that two of their targets -- Reps. Chris Chocola (R-IN 02) and Don Sherwood (R-PA 10) -- once looked somewhat safe, but are looking increasingly vulnerable as Election Day draws closer.

-- No one made much of Chocola's 70% primary performance in May over an unfunded opponent. But as polls show '04 nominee Joe Donnelly (D) in the lead, it's starting to look more significant. And in the '04 GOP primary against the same opponent, Chocola won 84%.

-- Also of note: the NRCC hasn't reserved ad time here, forcing Chocola to fend and spend for himself. And it's less GOP than the other two targeted IN CDs.

-- Sherwood looked at risk since his 56% primary win, lowest among victorious incumbents. His opponent, Chris Carney (D), was up on TV first and hasn't been attacked as aggressively as some challengers. (Sherwood also has been in the hospital, restricting his campaigning.)

-- Often the most vulnerable incumbents are the ones not paying attention until too late, and Chocola and Sherwood qualify for that list. JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

SECOND LIFE -- Let's dispense with the hee-haws: yes, it's easy to make fun of Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's history-making foray into the world of avatars and Second Life(s)s. But think about it: there are 48 million Americans who use the blogosphere, a fraction of which -- perhaps 4 million -- are regular consumers of the political blogs. This new venture might be mockable, but it's path-breakingly mockable.

The Hotline signed on as "Hotline Burbclave." Our first attempt to navigate the new world was stifled when we bumped into a post. Then, as we attempting to adjust our appearance, we accidentally began to take our clothes off -- the buttons are too close together!

But we managed to make our way to the New Globe Theatre. The site had been virtually "advanced" by Warner's team, just to make sure everything looked good. For a while, folks just stood around. We say stood because it was kind of hard to figure out how to sit down.

Gov. Warner appeared for a while, posing for photographs.

Apparently, CNN's Internet team was preparing a segment and a producer needed some footage. Then, suddenly, Warner turned gray, and then transformed on stage into a nude, buxom woman and flew off.

Hamlet Au, the event's host explained that Warner was "respawning."

At about 3:40, the real Warner flew in from above the stage. The audience, about 20 odd characters, many of them Second Life regulars, virtually clapped. One reporter shouted out "Will Jim Webb win Virginia?"

That violated the rules. Warner would only answer questions from Au this day, although he plans a virtual town hall meeting in September.

"I feel a little disembodied," Warner said. (Said? Typed? Wrote?) Asked what he was doing with his life these days, he started to talk about Virginia, bragging about its accomplishments. (Forbes, Governing Magazine. You know the drill.)

And then it, a little while later, it was over. Our avatar sat on his hands. What now? [MARC AMBINDER]

In a conference call 8/30 a.m., the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and ActBlue announced the formation of the State Activation Project. The new organization will make sophisticated online fundraising tools available to Dem state legislative candidates in certain states.

While state legislative candidates have been hindered by high costs, DLCC exec. dir. Michael Davies says a single umbrella organization provides candidates an economy of scale that will help make fundraising more affordable.

ActBlue Pres. Benjamin Rahn says candidates in state contests in CA, IN, IA, ME, MT, OR, PA, SD, TX, UT, VA, and WI will be able to raise money online by 9/4. Those states' campaign finance laws, says Rahn, are similar enough to fed laws that legal hurtles are smallest. NH and OH will soon be online as well.

The new organization has already received help from a number of groups, including the AFL-CIO, which is sponsoring the program in CA, PA and NH; the UT Dem party; Focus South Dakota, a group fighting SD's abortion ban; and the campaign of Rep. Ted Strickland (D-OH), who's sponsoring the program in his state.

IA Sen. Dem Leader Mike Gronstal said the program was the final step that could put his party in the majority in the chamber. He was joined by legislative leaders from OR, NH and PA, all of whom expressed hope that the program would put each of their caucuses in the majority.

According to a legitimate release from his PAC, Ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) "will enter into his Second Life" today at 3:30 pm ET. He will become 'the first American political leader to engage in the online virtual world, Second Life."

Warner "will conduct a brief interview with Second Life's embedded reporter, Hamlet Au," and "officially launch Forward Together PAC's new Second Life group." Warner: "Since I left the Virginia governor's office this year, I've traveled across the country to 24 states helping solutions-oriented candidates campaign for congressional and statehouse races. In Second Life, distances and time differences vanish. It will allow us to reach people through a whole new medium."

Warner's "appearance" at the Second Life New Globe Theatre can be viewed here. Second Life is a "3D online world" with a "rapidly growing population of over 589,000 residents from 100 countries around the globe." (Yes, we knew that already, but we presume many of our readers don't yet have avatars.)

Warner "Internet Team Leader" Jerome Armstrong: "This is in many ways an experiment. We want to see what people make of this. How will they organize? How will they interact with each other and with Governor Warner? We're all figuring out new ways to do things online -- in how we work, play and share ideas. We don't know yet how people will use Second Life to engage in politics. But we want to find out" (release, 8/31)

Folks wishing to join the press conference can "create a free account online" at https://secondlife.com/join/

BTW: The Hotline's avatar, created exclusively for this press conference, is "Hotline Burbclave."

We'll see you in the Second Life.

NBC/MSNBC showed more highlights from NBC's Williams' interview with Pres. Bush.

Bush, on Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld's speech: "I didn't know he was giving a speech today. The secretary of defense is saying what we all have been saying, that is if we lose our nerve and leave the Middle East before the job is finished, the world will be much worst off."

On Iraq: "I will tell you here, getting rid of Saddam Hussein has made the world safer. Now people will say, well, look at how dangerous Iraq is. What's happening is that a young democracy is battling an ideology of hatred. And I believe the unity government in Iraq will succeed. I believe that you're beginning to see the Iraqi government using their own forces to fight off militia."

Williams: "Do you see the argument that some on the left make that the war in Iraq has amounted to a colossal recruitment poster in the fundamentalist world?"

Bush: "No, I don't see that at all. The fundamentalist world attacked the United States and killed 3,000 people before I even thought about removing Saddam Hussein from power. I just don't buy that argument. It is an argument that's not based upon fact."

On the troops: "All I can tell you is, is that we have a volunteer army full of motivated, decent, honorable citizens, wearing our uniform, and morale is high. Morale is really high. You talk to the families, and you talk to these kids who are fighting for this country, and they understand the stakes, and they're proud to be doing it. And this country owes them a debt of gratitude."

On the world's view of the U.S.: "People don't like my policies, necessarily. They didn't like the fact that I didn't join the international criminal court. They didn't like the fact that I wouldn't sign the Kyoto Protocol, both of which I thought were not good for the country. Many people didn't like the fact that we went after Saddam Hussein, after resolution after resolution. I understand that. ... I would tell you, America is respected. And I would also say, I'd readily concede our policies may not be beloved. But I'll tell you what is the policies that are: we feed the hungry. When the tsunamis hit, it was the United States of America who took the lead. On HIV/AIDS, we're spending $15 billion of taxpayers' money to help people suffering. And so, you know, this country is a country that is doing a lot of good. And my job is to remind the people of the world of the good we're doing."

On his last years in office: "I think the two biggest challenges I would like to see solved in the next two years are, one, the unfunded liabilities inherit in Social Security and Medicare. Baby Boomers are retiring. Fewer people are paying into the system, and the system is going broke. And it's going to require both Republicans and Democrats coming together to reform these systems so that they keep their promise. ... And the other is energy. ... I mean, I stood up and said,
we've got a problem; we're addicted to oil. That's a pretty strong statement for a guy from Texas to make."

More: "We're spending billions of dollars on new technologies. And technology is going to lead us away from dependency on oil. ... Technology doesn't happen overnight. But this administration is laying the foundation for technological change" (NBC/MSNBC, 8/30).

THE CHAIRS HAVE THE FLOOR

RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, on Rumsfeld's Nazi analogy: "I can't explain why Secretary Rumsfeld used it. I've used it too. I think it's very much accurate, and here's why, I think, it is important to explain it in those terms. What we face today is a movement that's united by ideology and that's empowered by technology, and the American people need to understand that. ... It is important that people understand when you are fighting a movement and you're fighting an ideology, that very much affects your tactics and it explains why this is a challenging war to win" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/30).

DNC Chair Howard Dean: "Republicans are big on politics, but they're not very good at policy. They're good at winning elections, they're not very good at governing" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/30).

And Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT) discussed his Iraq remarks: "I will just go where the truth takes me. And I will live with the silly criticism. But I have been there 14 times. I know more about Iraq than any member of Congress, any senator. I go there every three months."

More Shays: "I think the president does have timelines. He's just not sharing it with people, the way he needs to" ("PZ Now," CNN, 8/30). [EMILY GOODIN]

Is a guy who spends more than $4 million on statewide TV ads a “significant” candidate? What about a nationally recognized academic who spends his mornings waving to motorists and his evenings walking precincts? How about a former state legislator whose career includes a four-year stint as county executive of a jurisdiction that includes 14% of Maryland’s population?

Does that background give him “a reasonable chance” of being elected?

According to criteria established by League of Women Voters of Maryland (LWVMD) and Maryland Public Television (MPT), the answer to all these questions is no. Since millionaire businessman Joshua Rales, college professor Allan Lichtman, and former Baltimore County Executive Dennis Rasmussen all scored below 15% in independent statewide polls prior to July 1, the LWVMD and MPT concluded that none of these three candidates is viable enough to merit inclusion in tomorrow’s televised debate for the Democratic Senate nomination. Only front-runners Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume will appear on stage.

The LWVMD is in a tough spot here. With 18 Democrats filed for the Senate seat, it’s sensible to establish candidate inclusion criteria. And the league’s attempt to exclude the fringe candidates who have “no reasonable chance of being elected” is a necessary evil, if for no reason other than practicality.

But in this case, the 15% polling threshold that defines a viable or “significant candidacy” may be doing a disservice to Maryland voters. In most other states, and by most objective measures, Rales, Lichtman and Rasmussen would be considered top tier Senate primary candidates.

Since the decision to exclude the three is of considerable consequence--this is, after all, the only planned televised debate before the September 12 primary--the trio protested with a press conference today in front of the LWVMD’s Annapolis office. While the staged event was standard campaign fare—a handful of reporters, a few cameras, no voters—the real action occurred afterwards, when the candidates decided to storm the LWVMD offices.
Lichtman was the first candidate in, trailing after the reporters who sought out LWVMD President Lu Pierson for comment. Within a few minutes, the cramped space was jampacked with media, candidates and campaign staffers. The beleaguered but gracious Pierson answered a few press questions, but struggled as Lichtman and Rales -- and their wives – confronted her with loaded questions about the fairness of the debate inclusion criteria.
Pierson held her own, but Rales managed to stump her with this one: “Do you feel you are similar to the Supreme Soviet in how you govern?” [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

The DNC launched Party Builder, its online social organizing and fundraising tool, last Friday. It's the answer to MyGOP.com. Both programs offer similar features, but most notable is how the GOP uses a homepage as its base (think MySpace), while the DNC's new tool looks a whole lot like The Facebook. Why re-invent the wheel, when it already runs so smoothly? MySpace and Facebook are in the top 20 sites in the country.

A quick comparison of what can be done with both sites:
*The DNC has put all of its action tools under the Party Builder, except for the blog which can be accessed via the main home page too. Supporters create a profile, join groups, make "friends," create/join events, fundraise, sign petitins and send letters to the editor. Unlike the RNC's blog, users comments are a free-for-all under the post while the RNC's blog comments are listed by user.
*The RNC's Action Center and its MyGOP.com portal are seperate features on the site, but link to many of the same functions. At the Action Center, users can host a party, take a survey, contact their Rep., call talk radio, get GOP paraphenalia, join teams, recruit volunteers and register people to vote. At MyGOP, supporters can do all the above and show off their progress.

In the simplest of political theories, each party's tool is reflective of their respectivie philosophies. Talk about competitive market: RNC users compete to get points, dollars and yes, the elusive "official" GOP ipod. With what is most like an intentional emphasis on competition, MyGOP users how much money they've raised (up to $200), voters they've and volunteers they've recruited. The DNC's Party Builder is all about building and communicating within a community.

Most important is to check out how each party gathers information about the user. The RNC has different logins for different features, such as the blog, personal homepage and volunteer recruitment center. It's a model for different levels of engagement and getting lots of names without shoving committment into a user's face -- and typically getting a larger drop-off rate in return. The DNC takes a different approach. By singing up with Party Builder, the DNC gets basic information in the login and then collects information through the user's profile, signed petitions, signed letters to the editor and their network/group memberships. So why do we care? These users are the party's next loyal supporter and volunteer. And how much information the parties have on these folk will determine the strength of their online activism in '06 and '08, which is conveniently transferable to field staffs across the country.

*For more Web Ads, check out Web AD-dict. In the meantime, a few bytes: An anonymous Ohio Democrat has visualized "This State" of GOP politics. Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano is starting weekly video message to supporters. Roy Temple's Fired Up Missouri thinks Jim Talent has a few good friends. The Minnesota Republican party tells Mike Hatch "That's what friends are for", and describes Amy Klobuchar's "Hostile Work Environment." TN Democrats are out with www.bigbrysondoubletalk.com, while the AZ Republican party ask "What's the trouble with Harry?"

In sum, that's Ramesh Ponnuru response to lefty criticism of Club for Growth's targeting of Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) at the possible expense of a GOP majority in the Sen. For months now, progressive bloggers have been decrying the lack of media attention RI SEN has received compared to their efforts to unseat Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT).

There are many things that distinguish the two races (Chafee was never a GOP VP candidate, for starters) but the more important difference is mentioned by Ponnuru: the Club for Growth does not exist to help the GOP control Congress.

On the other hand, partisanship is the stated goal of DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas in his book Crashing the Gates. This is part of what made the targeting of Lieberman such a story.

Perhaps it is a function of who is in power, and who is not, but the lefty blogosphere is much more concerned with tactics and strategy than ideological purity. If the Dems have a Sweet November, then maybe we'll see if Lieberman-like purges become the norm, instead of the exception.

Check out the latest The Blogometer

Per his spokesman:

Aaron Saunders, spokesperson for Stevens, said Coburn was informed two weeks ago that his boss had concerns about the bill. Namely, Stevens is concerned that the bill would create more bureaucracy. He wants to see a cost-benefit analysis.

Saunders said there was nothing secret about what Stevens did.

“Senator Stevens has always preferred to handle this at the staff level or member to member,” Saunders said. “He doesn’t like running to the blogosphere or the media.”

“Our reticence in getting out there is that Stevens doesn’t want to be in the media attacking Coburn,” Saunders said. “He has never addressed legislative concerns in the media. It is just not the way the senator has ever operated.”

Rep. Joel Hefley (R-CO 05) just announced he wouldn't run a write-in campaign against state Sen. Doug Lamborn (R), but he's still not going to lift a finger to help his party hold the seat.

-- Hefley's handpicked candidate, Jeff Crank, lost a close and nasty primary to Lamborn. The CO arm of the Christian Coalition sent direct mail accusing him of supporting "the radical homosexual lobby." Many prominent conservatives condemned the attacks and Lamborn's campaign. But Lamborn won because he had a solid enough lead among early voters who cast ballots before the pieces hit.

-- A reliable conservative, Hefley has nonetheless diverged from the party leadership in the past. As Ethics Cmte chair, he admonished ex-Maj Ldr Tom DeLay, and then lost his leadership post. Despite occasionally straying from the party-line, he's a well-respected figure within the CD.

-- The Dem nominee, Gulf War vet Jay Fawcett, is still a long-shot despite getting financial support from the netroots. But Hefley's public opposition to Lamborn is an unwelcome interparty nuisance for the GOP when they're trying to defend more pressing seats. JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Everyone loves rankings, and yesterday we learned which states were the fattest, dumbest and poorest. So we crunched the numbers, and put together this chart that lists each state's ranks in mean SAT score, obesity rate, and poverty rate. Please note that with each rating, the lower means more obese, less smart, or more poor.

(An editorial note: we're not actually calling anyone anywhere dumb or fat; we are aware of the objections to the SAT and of the scientific debates about obesity. That said, it's August. Lighten up a little.)

                 SAT   Obesity   Poverty      Average
Alabama           37         2         8        15.67
Alaska            19        15        34        22.67
Arizona           26        43        16        28.33
Arkansas          39         7         7        17.67
California        17        30        21        22.67
Colorado          35        51        36        40.67
Connecticut       21        46        49        38.67
Delaware           7        29         3        13.00
DC                 1        39        40        26.67
Florida            4        35        25        21.33
Georgia            6        12        14        10.67
Hawaii             2        50        45        32.33
Idaho             30        31        18        26.33
Illinois          49        23        29        33.67
Indiana           12         8        28        16.00
Iowa              50        21        38        36.33
Kansas            44        26        32        34.00
Kentucky          36         5         9        16.67
Louisiana         40         4         2        15.33
Maine             13        34        26        24.33
Maryland          16        24        50        30.00
Massachusetts     23        49        41        37.67
Michigan          38        11        23        24.00
Minnesota         46        27        47        40.00
Mississippi       33         1         1        11.67
Missouri          45        14        22        27.00
Montana           29        45        15        29.67
Nebraska          43        20        39        34.00
Nevada            10        42        37        29.67
New Hampshire     24        36        51        37.00
New Jersey        15        40        48        34.33
New Mexico        32        40         4        25.33
New York           9        36        19        21.33
North Carolina    14        17        13        14.67
North Dakota      51        18        35        34.67
Ohio              28        15        24        22.33
Oklahoma          41        13        10        21.33
Oregon            25        33        17        25.00
Pennsylvania       5        19        30        18.00
Rhode Island      11        47        27        28.33
South Carolina     3         8        11         7.33
South Dakota      48        22        20        30.00
Tennessee         42         6        12        20.00
Texas              8        10         6         8.00
Utah              34        43        42        39.67
Vermont           20        47        33        33.33
Virginia          18        25        44        29.00
Washington        27        31        31        29.67
West Virginia     22         3         5        10.00
Wisconsin         47        28        43        39.33
Wyoming           31        36        46        37.67

Best            Worst
CO    40.67     SC    7.33 
MN    40.00     TX    8.00
UT    39.67     WV   10.00
WI    39.33     GA   10.67
CT    38.67     MS   11.67

• SC has the worst average ranking of SAT score, obesity rate and poverty rate (7.3). CO has the best (40.7).
• NH and IA are 8th and 9th best, respectively, when you average the three rankings (37.0 and 36.33).
• Attention Joe Biden: DE is the blue state with the lowest average ranking (13), and the only one in the bottom 10. We guess DE does have more in common with southern states, afterall.
• TX is the only state to be in the bottom 10 for each category.
• MS comes in at number one in obesity and poverty

Pres. Bush sat down for an interview with NBC's Williams. Portions aired across all NBC/MSNBC platforms:

On his Katrina legacy: "When it's all said and done, the people down here know that I stood in Jackson Square and I said we're going to help you, and we delivered. And that's what matters. ... My heart and my soul is to help these people, and they know it. ... I'm confident we will rebuild this part of the country."

On what could have been done better: "I think we should have better coordination with the state and local government. The enormity of the storm just overwhelmed all aspects of government, and I believe had we been better coordinated, communicated better, moved equipment better, coordinated better on who is responsible for troops, we could have done a better job."

Asked if the U.S. fought the "wrong war" in regards to the war on terror: "Did we fight the wrong war? Naturally, I have no doubt. The war came to our shores, remember that. We had a foreign policy that basically said, let's hope calm works, and we were attacked."

More: "They weren't Iraqis, nor did I ever say that Iraq ordered that attack, but Iraq is part of the struggle against the terrorists. ... I think fighting this war is the absolute right thing to do. Now, in terms of image, of course I worry about American image. We're great at TV, and yet we're getting crushed in the PR front. And so we work hard and try to work smart about how we get a message out that says, we respect Islam, we just reject the ideology of extremists who kill innocent people to achieve political objectives. ... We retreat, they follow us. And I see this clearly as day. I mean, I understand the challenge and I also understand the frustrations of our citizens."

He continues: "I personally do not believe Saddam Hussein picked up the phone and said to al Qaeda, Attack America."

On his relationship with his father: "My relationship is adoring son."

Williams: "You talk shop?"

Bush: "Sometimes, yea, of course we do. But it's a really interesting question. It's kind of conspiracy theory at its most rampant. My dad means the world to me -- as a loving dad. He gave me the greatest gift a father can give a child, which is unconditional love. ... He understands what it means to be president. He understands that oftentimes I have information that he doesn't have. And he understands how difficult the world is today. And I explain my strategy to him, I explain exactly what I just explained to you back there how I view the current tensions, and he takes it on board, and leaves me with this thought, I love you son."

On his legacy: "First of all, there's no such thing as short-term history as far as I'm concerned. I think that you can't judge a presidency based upon, a moments notice. ... Eventually my standing in history will be judged by people 30 or 40 years from now who will be able to take an objective look, at whether the decisions I made led to peace and prosperity. You know, this is a job where you make decisions. And you do what you think is right. And you let people recognize, and the people are gonna say what's on their mind at the moment. But I read 3 histories of George Washington last year. The first President of United States is still being analyzed by historians, which oughtta say to this president and future president, 'Do what you think is right and eventually historians will figure out whether it made sense or not.'"

On why he read Camus: "I was in Crawford and I said I was looking for a book to read and Laura said you oughtta try Camus. I also read three Shakespeare's."

Williams: "A few months ago you were reading the life story of Joe DiMaggio by Richard Ben Cramer."

Bush: "Which was a good book."

Williams: "You've been on a Teddy Roosevelt reading kick."

Bush: "Well I'm reading about the battle of New Orleans right now. I've got an eclectic reading list." More: "The key for me is to keep expectations low."

Williams: "How have you been read wrong?"

Bush: "I dunno. I frankly don't pay that much attention. I don't wanna hurt people's feelings, but..."

Williams: "Still not watching television, huh?"

Bush: "I watched a good baseball game" (NBC, 8/29).

AND NOW, THE REST OF THE STORY

Most of TV last night focused on the Hurricane Katrina anniversary and the capture of Warren Jeffs.

CNN's S. O'Brien: "President Bush was in New Orleans today. Despite smiles and handshakes, he did acknowledge that governments on all levels fell short of their responsibilities when Katrina hit" ("PZ Now," 8/29).

FNC's Baier: "Senior aides say the president's two-day trip to the Gulf Coast was designed, in part, to deflect what they call misguided criticism that the administration has forgotten about the troubles here" ("Special Report," 8/29).

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA): "We need more of a plan. We need that leadership here on the ground, particularly in the city of New Orleans, but in the state in general. And that has held things up. You know, Congress and the American taxpayer have sent down boatloads of money. Now the challenge is getting it to have an impact here on the ground, with a plan, making that happen right, pushing that through the bureaucracy" ("PZ Now," CNN, 8/29).

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA): "The bottom line is that the federal bureaucracies that exist today are not sufficient in any way to deal with the catastrophic situation that occurred here" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/29).

Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS): "I don't know enough about what's happened in Louisiana, but I do know this: We've got the same federal government Louisiana's got. And Texas has got the same federal government as Louisiana's got, and Alabama and Florida. If it's the federal government's problem, why didn't it happen in Mississippi, in Texas, in Alabama and Florida?" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 8/29).

AND A HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU

On Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) 70th b-day, CNN examined if he's too old to be president. CNN's Bash: "Anyone McCain's age faces higher risks. The government says 88 percent of those over 65 have at least one chronic health condition. One in four older Americans suffer from a decline in cognitive health. McCain's personal history adds to the challenge -- multiple bouts of skin cancer and invasive surgery to remove it. ... A top aide insists McCain is now cancer-free and tells CNN he's checked at the Mayo Clinic every three months. They are preparing for the scrutiny that comes with a bid for president."

More Bash: "Six years ago, McCain released some 1,500 pages of medical records in an effort to prove the former prisoner of war was physically and psychologically fit to be president. Aides say they'll have to do that again, but when it comes to the age factor. ... What you hear from his aides over and over again is one simple message -- in a post-9/11 world, they believe that voters will buy the fact that life experience matters" ("Situation Room," 8/29). [EMILY GOODIN]

On the surface, the decision by Gov. Rick Perry to call for a special election to fill out the remainder of Rep. Tom DeLay's term seems smart.

It gives GOPer Shelley Sekula-Gibbs a bona fide ballot line. And it reminds Republicans in their districts whom to write in when filling out the other ballot that same day -- the ballot to determine who will actually replace DeLay when his term expries in January.

But will it make things easier?

Rick Hasen isn't so sure:

It does put her name in front of voters for the special election (perhaps making it easier for voters who want to cast a write-in vote for her in the general election to do so). But given all the confusion with the write-in campaign, I wonder how many voters will see her name, think that this is a "special" election, and think they need not cast a write-in vote for her as well. Lots of confusion to be expected here

There is also a slight galvanization effect. Dems have another talking point to ladel at Sekula-Gibbs for being a crony of the DeLay/Perry Republicans. (It's not clear whether Perry, locked in a four-way re-election race, is terribly popular in the 22nd.)

Curious as to why a place like Georgia seems to be trending so strongly towards the Republicans while a state like Arkansas remains a Dem bulwark against a strong GOP tide in the rest of region?

The below press releases are helpful in explaining, in part, why two red, Southern states remain very different politically. They are also instructive as to why Dems are favored to regain the governor's mansion in Little Rock, but not given much of a chance in Atlanta.

Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), the first GOP governor in the history of his state, crows about picking up the endorsement of 76 of Georgia's county sheriffs, 37 of whom are Dems. Two days later, AG/GOV candidate Mike Beebe (D) touts support from 68 of his state's sheriffs, all of whom are Dems.

Why the big deal? Because it reflects the larger state of political affairs in each place.

As Georgia elects more Republicans up and down the ballot, the last bastion of rural Dem strength, the so-called "courthouse crowd," becomes more comfortable crossing party lines and publicly stating their support for statewide GOP candidates. Surely such Dem sheriffs are already -- and have been for some time -- voting for Republican presidents. Now they're backing a GOP governor over a South Georgia Democrat, LG Mark Taylor, with deep roots in his party's rural tradition. The next logical step is to back Republicans at the local level and, finally, to switch parties, themselves. The end result is the political death of the Dems' "courthouse crowd" and the top-to-bottom dominance of the GOP in states like Georgia. Without a local bench, where will Dems find their state house and congressional candidates?

Arkansas, regional anomaly that it is, offers a different scenario. An elected official for nearly a quarter-century, Beebe is a known quantity among state and local pols. Having held a state senate seat for 20 years in north-central Arkansas' White County, Beebe represents the rural strength Dems still enjoy in Arkansas. The county sheriffs there are still 90% Dem and, despite 10 years of a Republican in the governor's mansion, would not consider crossing party lines to support the GOP candidate for governor. For a host of reasons, Arkansas, despite its conservative bearing, has resisted embracing the Republican party. So with a courthouse crowd -- the bench -- that has stayed loyal to the Dems, the Legislature remains firmly in the grip of the party. And with a Dem-dominated Capitol, the political giving from the close-knit business community continues to flow to the Dems -- sustaining the cycle.

[JONATHAN MARTIN]

We Watch These Races, So You Don't Have To

There are, to be sure, hundreds of down-ballot races worth watching in '06. For hundreds of reasons. We'll keep tabs on the latest developments in some of these races, which feature rising stars from both parties and all regions of the country, as well as local storylines with nat'l angles. In no particular order, here are a few we think merit more than a passing glance:

Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT 04), a stalwart supporter of the war in Iraq, said his position on troop withdrawal evolved during his 14th visit to Iraq. He now favors setting a timetable, and will be holding hearings on Iraq next month.

-- The 9/06 hearings will push Iraq to the forefront of the debate. That's not welcome news for CT's two other 2 vulnerable GOPers (Simmons/Johnson), who would rather talk about the broader "war on terror" or domestic issues.

-- Will voters judge candidates on their "timetable" position or on their overall view of the Iraq war? Shays' opponent, Diane Farrell (D), drew headlines for opposing a time-certain withdrawal earlier this month, but she's been a staunch opponent of the Iraq war from the beginning. And Shays has been one of the leading Iraq hawks, but is now getting attention for supporting a withdrawal.

-- Has Shays finally succumbed to the anti-war sentiment in his CD? After his 7/06 visit to Iraq, he said he opposed any deadlines. But with two months before the election, he's adapted his position. Will Shays' change-of-mind come across as sincere or politically motivated?
[ JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Big Sugar's influence in Florida politics is not to be dismissed.

Right now, the sugar industry's political committees are spending more than 1.8 million on a subterranean campaign to disqualify Dem gubernatorial candidate Jim Davis, who has a narrow lead going into his 9/5 primary against Rod Smith.

Their ads have nothing to do with cane fields and crops; one attacked Davis for missing Congress's resolution condemning Hezbollah. A direct mail piece was sent to virtually every Jewish voter in South Florida that showed up Big Sugar's lists, according to a source with knowledge of the decision. Another flier, sent to black voters in Miami-Dade county, castigated Davis for his "record of shame" on racial issues, accusing him of neglecting to vote in favor of restitution for wrongfully convicted prisoners. A TV ad accuses Davis of voting against the minimum wage.

The goal is to drive down Davis's turnout among his core voters. Smith is running out of money.

Big Sugar, per the Miami Herald, is "reviled by environmentalists for polluting the Everglades." In 1996, they ingeniously orchestrated a statewide political campaign to push two Everglades clean-up initiatives toward passage. And they heavily fought against a third, which would require the industry itself to foot part of the bill. Davis took Smith to task for supporting a Big Sugar out in the cleanup. And then the industry decided to dethrone Davis.

As the Orlando Sentinel noted,

Sugar companies control some 700,000 acres in the Everglades Agricultural Area south of Lake Okeechobee. They would love to turn wide swaths of that into houses. The governor appoints the secretary of the Department of Community Affairs, the state agency that oversees development. Given Mr. Smith's atrocious record on environmental issues and his eagerness to take Big Sugar's help, it's easy to guess what kind of DCA secretary he would appoint.

In Florida, 527s can't coordinate directly with candidates but they can do pretty much everything else. As the Herald notes, Sugar (daddy?) lobbyist Screven Watson is one of Smith's closest advisers.

The state's editorial boards hate Big Sugar. But there are many wealthy farmers in the state, and Big Sugar has plenty of money to fund its political activities. Right now, they're chafing under a federal-state agreement to clean up the Everglades and they hope the next governor asserts state prerogatives. (The federal magistrate overseeing the cleanup doesn't seem to be a fan of the industry's.)

Big Sugar doesn't seem to care whether their tactics are dirty or not. If you'd like to learn more, check out Pulitzer Prize winning Miami Herald columnist/.author Carl Hiassen's Striptease. (The book, not the move.)

Conservatives for McCain -- or Michigan Conservatives for McCain -- is a new blog on Townhall. It's run by Dan Carlson, the chair of the Michigan Federation of College Republicans. He'll provide a good source of Michigan-based foot soldiers for McCain in '08. Right now, Carlson's blog on IA's Chuck Larson is the top opinion blog on the Townhall site.

In other Michigan '08 news, Gov. Mitt Romney's RGA has given $750K to run issue ads on behalf of Dick DeVos's gubernatorial bid. That comes after the RGA sent $500K to Iowa. It's easy to see these public announcements as too cute by half for a presidential candidate, but here's the rhyme: the RGA wants the DGA to waste money in Michigan, and we're fairly certain the DGA took some phone calls yesterday from allies of Dem governor Jennifer Granholm, wanting to know when their money would be arriving. Luckily, DGA chair Bill Richardson is a potential presidential candidate, too. Still, a fair question can be asked: why give money to a state where your candidate is a self-funder? Why not to Colorado or Maryland, two states where a public infusion of cash could boost the GOPers in that state? We know the RGA is doing quite a bit below the radar in those states, but publicity often begets more money.

With breaking news in the JonBenet Ramsey case, a lot of cable coverage was devoted to that topic. There was some talk of the Hurricane Katrina anniversary and whether the region is prepared for another storm.

But, first of all, Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT) was on "Hardball" last night to discuss his call for a timetable on U.S. troops in Iraq:

Shays: "I'm not breaking with the president in supporting the mission in Iraq. I am a strong believer that we need to be fully engaged militarily, economically and politically and I believe that if we leave now or leave prematurely, you will see clearly a higher oil prices but what's more fearsome is you will see an Iraq that's dominated by Iran."

Asked if he's calling for a timetable: "Yes, but one more thing you will see the terrorists win and we can't allow them to win. I'm calling for a timetable on three things. One, that they set provisional elections, that they have reconciliation and a timeline to do it, a timeline for finishing the constitution and give them the timeline on how long our troops will be there, doing the police work that ultimately we want them to do."

More: "Taking this position doesn't help me politically, but more importantly I want to make sure that you see the distinction. I agree with the president in our mission, I agree that we have got to succeed. The only difference and it's a big difference, but it's the one difference, and that is I think the way to get the Iraqis to wake up, to do the heavy lifting, is to let them know that we are not there indefinitely, that there's not an open checkbook, that we're not going take sustained losses indefinitely."

He continues: "The Democratic timeline, was not based on specific fact. Their timeline was just get out, whether or not we can do it. My timeline is based on this important fact, we tell the Iraqis when they replace our, our troops leave" (MSNBC, 8/28).

THE BIG EASY

Amid all the stories on New Orleans recovery (and its lack of recovery), there was talk of the political fallout:

CNN's Schneider: "A year later, New Orleans has not fully recovered. And neither has President Bush" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 8/28).

FNC's Baier: "While emphasizing one year later he understands there is a lot of work to do, the president said he sees signs of recovery, renewal and hope" ("Special Report," 8/28).

Pat Buchanan: "I think the president was asleep at the switch in this sense. He's on vacation. His top staffers aren't there. He wasn't alerted to the fact that every journalist in the country was down there focusing on this. He's got usually good political instincts. They either were not touched here or they weren't working" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 8/28).

CNN's Bash: "While Democrats are slamming the president's trip to the Gulf Coast this week as nothing more than a photo op, 25 House Democrats are there right along with Mr. Bush to deliver their talking points. The delegation is descending on Louisiana and Mississippi over the next two days to talk about everything from health care to insurance with local residents there" ("Situation Room," 8/28).

Newsweek's Wolffe: "It has become emblematic of a whole range of problems with the Bush administration that again, the president has worked hard to overcome. But they are still there, questions of competency, again about compassion and so, you know, the downside is really for, I would say, Democrats in Louisiana, people who may fell angry at incumbents, generally. But for Democrats nationally, I don't think there are not too many downsides" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/28). [EMILY GOODIN]

The Ohio GOP gubernatorial nominee goes negative:

In the campaign for Governor, watch out Ohio for Taxin’ Ted Strickland. In Congress, Taxin’ Ted voted 31 times to increase taxes - on gasoline, family income, even social security. Fifty-two times he opposed a tax cut - on married couples, families with children and even medical savings. Taxin’ Ted hasn’t ruled out raising taxes as Governor. Ohio’s already one of the highest taxed states – costing us jobs. We don’t need Taxin’ Ted to make us number one.

BTW: We've noticed that Blackwell's press releases always refer to Strickland as a "former prison psychologist," which, while technically true, is rather evocative.

The GOP Sweep in 1994 was mostly built on fresh faces, but a few victors had the pleasure of beating incumbents whom they had lost to in '92, such as Jon Fox (R-PA), Enid Greene Waldholtz (R-UT), and Doc Hastings (R-WA). This may bode well for certain Dems running in '06, but it's important to note that these '94 victors had come close to winning in '92, with 47%-49% of the vote each.

Lois Murphy (R-PA 06) and Diane Farrell (R-CT 04) can certainly take heart in their 49% and 48% near-wins in 2004, and each is well-positioned heading into this fall. But the path is much steeper for Paul Hodes (D-NH 02) and Jerry McNerney (D-CA 11), with '04 losses of 38% and 39% respectively. Joe Courtney's (D-CT 02) decent 46% loss in '02 may give him some comfort, however John Cranley's (D-OH 01) 45% loss in '00 was in a CD with more Dems than the one he's currently running in.[ JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

But wait until the cleanup begins!

"All bus tour activities featuring Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher scheduled for tomorrow, August 29th in the South Florid a area have been postponed due to Tropical Storm Ernesto. The Treasurer’s chief concern right now is to the safety of all Floridians, including campaign staff and volunteers. Hurricane-force winds are expected to hit Florida within the next 24-hours. "

Democrats were right in 2004: the Republicans have adopted a draft. It only applies, however, to party workers employed by state victory committees in the east of the Mississippi. For many it will be worse than boot camp. They are to be sent to Rhode Island to try to rescue Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee’s re-election campaign in the September 12th primary.

Workers start arriving Friday and will be charged with sorting out the mess that Washington operatives believe is the Chafee campaign. First task may be to get Republican voters to forget Chafee’s erratic performance in the last two of the four broadcast debates between the incumbent and his lively challenger, Cranston mayor Stephen Laffey.

Scores of GOP workers will begin arriving this week and stay through the open primary as they search for and then try to persuade some of the 70,000 registered Republicans and several hundred thousand independent voters eligible to participate in the open primary to support Chaffee. Draftees, many of whom may be more compatible with Laffey, will be paid by their home-state committees. Food and lodging expenses will be picked up by Republican National Committee. Some of the faithful, however, may prefer to go AWOL than work for a Republican who opposes mangers on public property and calls the Club for Growth one of most notorious special interest groups in Washington.

Party pros may be hoping that the influx of energetic workers will inspire Chafee to put some heat under what they see as his lethargic performance in the day-to-day grind of campaigning in the Ocean State. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

How would he do in the South as a presidential candidate?

“Better than anybody else. You don't know my state. My state was a slave state. My state is a border state. My state is the eighth largest black population in the country. My state is anything from a northeast liberal state.”

This is not the first time that Biden has made the argument that his state cannot be easily caricatured as a liberal, northeastern enclave. Speaking to another SC audience in May, Biden invoked the accents of those who live in what DE'ans refer to as the "Slower Lower" portion of the state to tell them that he felt right at home in the Palmetto State.

Tomorrow, Hurricane Ernesto will probably strike Florida.

That's two years to the day that the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin.

Tampa has reasons to be nervous about its chances....

An exclusive Saturday political news digest and tip sheet from the editors of the Hotline.

WHAT'S BREWING

The Hotline turns on the H-MRI, continuing a series of short scans of WH '08 resumes. Over the next few months, we'll cut to the bone to assess candidates' records and tease out the interplay of policy and politics in their lives. Our first scan examined Sen. Evan Bayh's relationship with organized labor.

To movement conservatives assessing the crop of '08 candidates, Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) is an attractive, though beguiling bundle of unorthodoxies. But if he gets through the primaries and becomes the party's nominee, he could be a nightmare for Democrats desperately trying to regain the mantle as the party of the working class. Democrats talk about improving public health; Huckabee can say that he's done it. Democrats talk about raising the minimum wage; Huckabee signed a law that makes his state's the highest in the region.

First things first. Nat'l reporters covering Huckabee have begun to notice what AR reporters - and many conservative activists - have known all along. It's hard to stereotype the guy. Like another AR governor of recent vintage, The Huck, as he is known by some media wags back home, is not anchored by ideology. [MARC AMBINDER AND JONATHAN MARTIN]

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

First, some final post-facto analysis on the news that former Dean for America Webmaster Nicco Mele has promised to work for McCain's Straight Talk America PAC. On the surface, the relationship actually makes so much sense. McCain had a strong internet presence in 2000, and he needs someone like Mele to tranlate his crossover appeal into an online social network. But as skeptics like Michael Turk, former e-campaign director for the RNC and Bush '04, say, it's likely not the best decision for either of them. "For the conservative base, it puts McCain in league with the Internet guy for the most liberal Presidential candidate since Carter," said Turk. "For Nicco, it puts him in league with a Republican who supported the war, and who, despite opinions within the GOP, is actually very conservative." To prove Turk's point, the lefty New Organizing Institute issued a press release late Thursday night saying they had removed Mele from their advisory board.

Here are some Web bytes for the weekend:

*Voto Latino is launching its first national voter regiration drive with text messaging with the help of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and actress Rosario Dawson. The nonpartisan campaign is powered by Mobile Voter's TxtVoter (see 6/28's On Call). To participate, text the key word "Represent" to the SMS code 75444 from your cell phone.

*Two new Web videos for you: Jim Webb's campaign is changing the subject with "97 Percent George!", and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a long-winded biographical video on his Commonwealth PAC's site.

*RNC has a new webisode of its faux-news cast, Mercy Schlapp's "In the know."

*Haven't seen enough of Huckabee Rock? The Hotline has set up a YouTube account.

This month's Diageo/Hotline poll should serve as a small splash of cold water on "Speaker" Pelosi and "Majority Leader" Reid. But just a splash.

The upshot: our snapshot of likely voters suggests that, nationwide, Republicans may be as ginned up as Democrats. Or both Dems and Republicans may be equally motivated to vote -- even if that level of motivation is low. That said, control of Congress won't be decided by the votes of a majority of likely voters in the country. It'll be decided by voters in about a dozen states across several dozen congressional districts.

Unlike many major national polls, our poll consistently surveys registered voters. And this month, we are dividing our research between regis. voters and likely voters.

-- In our RV sample, Dems are in a strong position. But cull down to "likely voters," and suddenly the GOP seems to have a fighting chance. In the generic ballot, our LV sample has the two parties even. Among all RVs, Dems are up 7.

-- Also of note, Bush's job rating rises 3 points among LVs. (The party I.D. makeup of our LV sample is 4 points more GOP than our RV sample). Which brings us to exactly why handicapping midterms are so difficult. A 3 point shift in party I.D. could tip 10 House races and 2 Senate seats.

Other highlights:

--Your Neighbor Will Do The Right Thing: Dems have a +13 margin among likely voters on this question: Would US Be Better Off If ___ Controlled Congress?

-- Terrified: Only 23% believe that a Democratic Congress would make the US safer. And a President Gore or President McCain would make us safer than a President Kerry or President Hillary Clinton.

-- Time For A Change: 33% of LVs say they'll vote to re-elect their member of Congress, while 32% say they'll vote to replace.

-- Snooze Alert: More GOPers than Dems are interested in the election "a lot," promising further ill for Dem chances?

-- No Credit Where Credit Is Due?: We say we're safer from terror than we were before 9/11/01, but we don't give the Bush admin credit for that. 50% say we're safer, while just 38% say it's the Bush admin's policies that have made us safer.

-- One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other: 53% of voters say the war in Iraq IS part of the global war on terror, while 42% say it's not. The good news for Dems? Indies think it's not, though by a narrow 48%-45% margin.

-- South Of The Border, Down Mexico Way: More of us think the War in Iraq should be Congress' top priority, but more prefer their individual member should keep his head down on immigration matters.

-- The More You Know ... : Congress is not viewed highly by regis. voters. Just 31% of RVs approve of the job they're doing. That's stable with last month, but the bad news is that likely voters -- a heavier GOP sample that pays more attention -- likes Congress less than all voters. Just 27% of LVs say Congress is doing alright.

It's Day 10 of our coverage of Macaca-iana or Macaca-gate or Liberal Washington Post-gate, or whatever you'd like to call it.

Two new developments of interest.

Did Allen's team -- or a sympathizer -- poll Northern Virginia to see whether the "Macaca" remark left a bruise?

A NoVa voter reports receiving a telephone survey asking pointed questions about the nature and scope of Allen's apology.

The dial room in question, according to the caller, was "Central Research."

Allen's campaign won't discuss its polling; the Virginia GOP disclaims any knowledge; the NRSC says it hasn't done a poll, either. And Webb's campaign has no idea, either.

The first portion (after asking about general favorability and initial ballot) was about Allen; the surveyist asked:
 
1) Have you seen/read/heard the Macaca comment?

2) Do you consider the comment racist?

3) Have you seen/read that Allen had apologized?

4) Should Allen say he is running for president while he’s running for senate or should he not comment on any 2008 presidential aspirations at this time?
 
The second portion tested attacks on Webb.  
 
One argument referred to Webb inferred he was a sexist, using an alleged quote by Webb calling women “:thunder thighs." Another argument referred to Webb’s “Why Women Can’t Fight” article. A third referred to Webb’s lack of knowledge about Craney island.

Item two is a book blurb from prolific author James Webb that was posted today RedState.org.

William Perry Pendley's "Warriors of the West: Fighting Bureaucrats, Radical Groups, and Liberal Judges on America's Frontier" occasioned this from Mr. Webb:

"Politicians and judges over the past forty years have created the mythology that white America is a monolith whose history is based on social and economic privilege, while anyone who is not white is by definition disadvantaged. No one knows this better than William Perry Pendley and a few have done more to put an end to this outrage."

Now -- to be fair to Mr. Webb, his historical scholarship has focused on how the Scotch-Irish were a particularly distinct and influential species of American immigrant.

We can't really say where RedState got the blurb from. Perhaps it came from Allen's campaign; we know they have reams of Webb research at their disposal.

But we also know that there are many folks in Webb's campaign who know that a quote like this turns Macaca into an 11 or 12-day story.

Whether responsible for it or not, we assume that Allen's campaign, which won't discuss its strategy, hopes a quote like this will drive a wedge within Webb's base.

Of course -- that's exactly what Webb primary opponent Harris Miller (D) tried to do, and it didn't work.

At an immigration forum yesterday n Coeur D'Alene, Idaho, Sen. Larry Craig (R) was repeatedly shouted down and many in the audience walked out as he tried to discuss the issue of immigration, according to the Idaho Press-Tribune . One woman told Craig she was "sick of listening to thse lies." Others told Craig that they wanted illegal immigrants deported ASAP. Craig is up for re-election in 2008.

VT-AL candidate Martha Rainville (R) wants a "moderate Republican" as speaker, not necessarily Speaker Dennis Hastert. Asked if she'd support another Hastert term, Rainville, at a news conference: "I don't know. Would I abstain? Would it matter? I think we spend a lot of time on who are you going to vote for as speaker and it really just detracts attention from what we ought we ought to be talking about. I think it's in some sense a ploy by some who don't want to talk about the issues, or who want to keep Vermonters stirred up about a personality rather than real concerns on Vermonters minds."

Rainville said she hopes that "moderate voices" will be "stonger" in Congress.

More Rainville: "[A] lot of representatives have come to the realization that we need to change direction. And there are some, particularly in the Northeast, some Republicans that are very strong minded about that"

IA: Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) is in Western IA today and in West Des Moines tomorrow.

IA: Is the CEITC investigation costing too much? What Democrat in his or her right mind would actually give voice to such a thought?

IA: Remarkably, Sen. Russ Feingold will campaign for Bruce Braley on August 39th of this year.

SC: Democratic trackers are everywhere! Apparently, the DNC or the state party in SC is paying for a young gentleman to videotape Republican '08 hopefuls across the fruited plains of the Palmetto State.

NH: Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH) "received a letter of thanks" from PETA for liberating "Larry," an 11-pound lobster presented to him at a fair in Kingston, NH (Washington Times).

From his blog:

"A lot of people are asking me about John McCain. When I worked for Common Cause, I worked on the McCain-Feingold bill and worked closely with Sen. John McCain’s office. After Sen. McCain lost the Republican primary in 2000, I traveled with him as part of a group of campaign finance reform staffers as we criss-crossed the country working to secure support for the McCain-Feingold bill. I have long admired Sen. McCain’s work on campaign finance reform and his independent streak. If Sen. McCain runs for president, he’s got my support. EchoDitto, the company that I co-founded and am CEO of, has not in the past, does not now, and will not in the future do any work for Sen. McCain in any way. Right now, I’m involved in many projects that have nothing to do with presidential politics. While I currently don’t know what role I’d like to have in 2008, if Sen. McCain runs I hope to be helpful. This is a personal decision for me based on my own first-hand experience. I like Sen. McCain - I think he should be president!

Still a lot of JonBenet coverage but Tom Cruise also got a lot of TV time and yet, shows did find room for a little politics.

DNC Chair Howard Dean was on the "Situation Room" and "Hardball" last night:

Dean: "This president is in deep trouble. Although, I have to say that the Iraq war is an issue that's getting him into deep trouble, but the issue that really got him into deep trouble, the anniversary is at the end of this week, and that's Hurricane Katrina."

More: "The response to Katrina was effectively the end to the president's presidency in the sense that people all of a sudden saw the small man behind the curtain."

Asked if he wants Joe Lieberman to remain a Dem: "Sure. We want to be a big tent. And Joe has served the country honorably. But Joe is the past and Ned Lamont is the future. And we need a new direction in this country, and the voters in Connecticut have indicated that" (CNN, 8/23).

On John McCain criticizing Iraq: "I think that the president is probably getting all he can handle from all sides. It's amazing how everybody leaves the ship once the policy is clearly heading in the wrong direction. You know, Senator McCain has got his own problems with this, where he was a huge booster of it all along until now, I guess things are getting a little hot in the kitchen, so he decided to get out."

Asked if he's satisfied with George Allen's apology: "I served with George Allen when he was governor. I don't think he belongs in public service, to be honest with you. There are Republicans who are capable and smart, thoughtful people, and he's not one of them" (MSNBC, 8/23).

BOOK IT

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" to discuss his new book "The Plan: Big Ideas for America."

Emanuel: "The whole purpose of this book is to say that, look, the days of which we knew Ozzie and Harriet -- one of the chapters is called 'Ozzie and Harriet Don't Live Here Anymore.' One job, one mortgage, one pension is becoming undone by the pressures of a global economy. What do we need to do to make sure that the middle class dream of raising a child, sending him to college, saving for your retirement, and having a job and the skills to succeed economically are still there? And the basic premise, one of the concepts behind the book, is that citizenship is not an entitlement program. It begins with responsibilities" (CNN, 8/23). [EMILY GOODIN]

Gov. Mitt Romney's Michigan leadership team, announced tonight, includes a half dozen Bush mega-donors, two Romneys, a member of the U.S. House, dozens of state representatives, major county chairs and a few of the state's more influential grassroots activists.

Oh, heck. We'll write what we'd like to trademark as the "Requisite Sentence." In theory, these new members of Romney's Commonwealth PAC affiliate in Michigan are fully and completely dedicated to helping elect Republicans in Michigan in 2006. But the reality is, of course, that they're fully fledged members of Romney's presidential campaign, which, although it has yet to officially begin... has... well... pretty much officially begun. Technically, that marker will be crossed when Romney opens an exploratory committee, but...

The release of these names is a shot across the frontrunner's bow of Sen. John McCain, who has the support of Michigan's two national committee members, among others. It's also a signal to the media, in Michigan and nationally. And to Republican donors. And to uncommitted activists in other states. And to those pesky National Journal insiders who keep ranking McCain ahead of their guy. And even to the White House.

Romney was born in Michigan; his father served two terms as governor, and in certain parts of the state, the Romney name is gold.

This weekend, Romney will be the '08 GOP candidate to speak at the state GOP onvention in Oakland County, where 3,000 opinion drivers will listen intently to whatever he has to say. We hear he's serving pizza, too.

The 75 members of Team Romney / Michigan are after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]

Over the past several months, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has quietly recruited for his presidential campaign some of the most influential online strategists in the country, including one of the main architects of Howard Dean's pioneering website.

John Weaver, McCain's chief political strategist, confirmed today that Nicco Mele, the webmaster of Dean for America, is among those who have committed to help. Mele's work on Dean's campaign, which including , led Esquire to name him as one of the country's "best and brightest." His firm, EchoDitto, lists more than twenty major Democratic and liberal firms and candidates as clients. Mele did not respond to an e-mail seeking immediate comment.

Also committing, according to Weaver: Mike Connell of New Media Communications. He designed, developed and managed the Bush campaign's websites in 2000 and 2004.

Max Fose, McCain's webmaster in 2000, is also back on board. And so is GOP technological entrepreneur Becky Donatelli, the CEO of Campaign Solutions. Donatelli helped to coordinate online fundraising for McCain in 2000.

"We're honored such top professionals in this field support a potential McCain candidacy," said Weaver.

The range of experiences brought by these consultants suggests that McCain's web strategy will be integrated with the campaign's message, donation and political operations -- just like Dean's was in the primary, -- and certainly hewing to example set by the Bush campaign in 2004. Bush raised more money from the ‘Net than any candidate in history and campaign used its website to track thousands of volunteers and motivate Bush supporters.

Mele is considered an expert in web community building and networking. His recruitment suggests that McCain's campaign recognizes the dynamic nature of online campaigning. Online activists on the left and increasingly on the right now demand access and feedback from candidates and top political officials. Elite bloggers, in particular, wish to be treated as fledged members of a campaign, rather than as parts of a restive constituency waiting to be coddled.

It's hard to generalize, but the disparate reaches of the conservative online activist community tend to view McCain with skepticism. Almost to the blogger, they opposed the "Gang of 14" compromise on judicial confirmations and sneer at campaign finance regulations with scorn. A large number of prominent bloggers disdain his position on immigration reform. More recently, however, McCain's role in sponsoring pork-busting legislation has garnered him some praise. And the most important center-right blogger -- Glenn Reynolds -- is more sympathetic to McCain than others.

McCain himself is not especially comfortable with the Internet. But he has reached out in substantive ways. His PAC now pays prominent conservative blogger Patrick Hynes a consulting free, his chief of staff has blogged, uninvited, on Huffingtonpost.com, McCain has participated in podcasts with Instapundit’s Glenn Reynolds and his wife Helen Smith, and he has contributed to the Porkbusters online effort to reign in government spending. Rick Davis, who managed McCain's 2001 campaign, helped to corral the current roster of talent.

In the days after his New Hampshire primary victory in 2001, McCain's team raised more than $1 million off the Internet -- then a record setting performance. And he held one of the first online fundraisers, participating in a web chat with donors who ponied up $500.

With the recruitment of Connell, the incipient McCain campaign has pulled off a coup of sorts. It has now attracted top talent from nearly every major division of the Bush-Cheney campaign. Terry Nelson, Bush's campaign political director, will probably take a major managerial role in McCain's 2008 campaign. Bush's media guru, Mark McKinnon, consults for McCain on strategy. Nicolle Wallace, who oversaw communications for Bush in the campaign and at the White House, will help McCain. Her husband, Mark Wallace, a former deputy campaign manager for Bush who is now an ambassador at the UN, gave advice before he entered the government. A gaggle of major Bush donors and fundraisers are also on the team. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ and MARC AMBINDER]

"Organizationally, Edwards is in the best shape of anyone in Iowa. His close ties to the hotel labor workers give him an interesting leg up in Nevada. South Carolina is a primary he's already won once. About the only state where Edwards is weak is New Hampshire. And, frankly, if he wins Iowa and Nevada, New Hampshire support will gravitate to him. He's planted plenty of support seeds in the state, but he's just never been anyone's 1st or 2nd choice."

"But let's forget geography for a minute and look at who is best positioned on the two biggest issues Democrats will debate between now and 2008 -- Iraq and electability. Edwards has become an unabashed opponent of the war and liberal activists in Iowa will remember that. That should play well in New Hampshire as well. He's also heavily courting labor and someday labor is going to matter again in a Democratic primary; at least that's what labor keeps telling itself. But the combination of labor and Iraq positions Edwards very neatly to Clinton's left, where she'll leave a vacuum since she's trying so hard right now to make herself electable in a general."

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The Big Number: : the poll of the day.

On The Download: : the On The Download: dispatches from the cutting edge of PoliTech -- political technology.

Consultant's Corner : the latest trends in political consulting.

House Race Hotline Updates : dispatches and analysis of the hottest House races.

Election Nights: : real-time results and instant analysis of every major primary -- and we'll be live all fall.

The Hotline's Race Rankings : Get an early line on WH 2008, as well as the latest rankings, commentary and analysis on all '06 Senate, House and governor races.

Houston City Councilor Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R) is now the only GOP-endorsed candidate against ex-Rep. Nick Lampson (D) in TX 22. But she'll face sizable financial and name ID hurdles as a late-entering write-in.

-- Lampson, the only major-party candidate on the 11/06 ballot, has stockpiled over $2M. So far, he's emphasized local issues -- like cracking down on sexual predators and Internet porn -- as he waits for the GOP campaign to intensify.

-- Charlie Wilson (D) was able to win the OH 06 Dem primary as a write-in. But Wilson faced no-name candidates in a small-market district, and he needed fewer votes to prevail. Educating over 100K voters about writing-in the name "Sekula-Gibbs" will be a costly proposition in the Houston media market.

-- Indeed, the most important figure is how much the NRCC will drop. For Lampson, money isn't everything: he spent over $2.4M last cycle and only won 43% in TX 02. And if the NRCC kicks in big bucks to aid with GOTV, they have a fighting chance. But, with so many other races in play, they may view '08 as the better opportunity to win back this seat.[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

We hear... that Gov. George Pataki will spend the day with about 20 New Hampshire GOP lawmakers and candidates in Saratoga, New York on Friday.

Attendees include state senate president Ted Gastas and Majority Leader Bob Clegg....

Hours before President Bush was scheduled to attend a fundraiser in his honor, Sen. George Allen telephoned Democratic video tracker S.R. Sidarth to apologize.

The news was buried at the bottom of a press release issued by James Webb's campaign.

Wed, Aug. 23: Twelve Days Later, After Numerous Excuses and Apologies to Everyone But Sidarth, Senator Allen Calls S.R. Sidarth to Apologize. [Phone call, 8/23/06]

Meanwhile, a tipster passed along this e-mail from GOP activist Doug Jones:

President Bush will be attending a fundraiser for Senator George Allen in Mt. Vernon this afternoon. The Democrats are planning a protest demonstration.

This is a call to arms for all loyal Republicans to rally in support of our Commander in Chief and Senator Allen.

Ground zero is the intersection of Mt. Vernon Memorial Hwy. and Ferry Landing Road. Parking is available at Grist Mill Park which is 200 feet from this intersection. Grist Mill Park is halfway between Mt. Vernon Estate and Woodlawn Plantation.

We need as many folks as possible to show up at 3:45 pm. I am anticipating the President's arrival somewhere between 4:45 and 5:30pm. If you have Bush or Allen yardsigns please bring them.

....answer a nagging concern of the blogosphere.

And props go to the Senate Majority Leader and his staff for responsiveness.

Early this morning, Frist posted a response to NRO's Andrew Stuttaford's exhortation that Frist "do something about the senator who put an anonymous hold on S-2590, the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act (S. 2590)."

Asked Stuttaford: “Are you paying attention, Senator Frist?”

Frist writes that he came to Stuttaford's post by way of Instapundit. And "[a]s soon as the Senate returns in September, I will continue to fight to pass S. 2590 and other fiscal responsibility priorities."

Many in the blogosphere – left and right – have rallied to support this crucial legislation, which is fitting, for no group better knows the power of technologically empowered grassroots activism. And, for reasons of policy and politics, many bloggers are rightly outraged that S. 2590 was shot down when I attempted to bring it up for a vote prior to the August recess.

I fully recognize the importance of fiscal discipline for America’s economic security. And I hope folks recognize that there is a real choice between Democrats and Republicans on matters of taxes and spending.

Pres. Bush is meeting today with the '06 political equivalent of a pre-Crawford Cindy Sheehan.

From the White House morning briefing: "This morning, President Bush will meet with Rockey Vaccarella, whose home in St. Bernard Parish was destroyed by Katrina. Mr. Vaccarella has traveled through the South to spread a message of hope and dedication to rebuilding."

Here's the familiar sounding back story:

Vaccarella "said he felt compelled to come to the nation's capital with a mock but realistic-looking FEMA trailer to pass on a message to President Bush. And even though almost everyone told him it was a lost cause, Vaccarella will get his meeting with Bush – not for dinner but a private session at the White House this morning. ...'I know some people think I'm an oddball who stood on his roof for 4½ hours, but I really wanted to thank the president for the FEMA trailers and all that he has done, but to remind him that while you have the whole world on your plate, just don't forget about us down south,' Vaccarella said."

The Hotline admires Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) and his Capitol Offense band. In the spirit of gentle parody, a regular contributor just couldn't resist channeling our favorite 90s VH-1 show.

Keep in mind that the assertions contained within the pop ups are not necessarily...well...true

The fact that Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) lost his bid for renomination wasn't a surprise -- he trailed in almost every poll that came out in recent months. But with only 19% of the vote, the ex-U.S. senator finished a distant third, 10 points behind even the second-place finisher, ex-state Sen./businessman John Binkley (R). Murkowski is, according to our research, the first incubment governor to finish third in a primary since David Hall (D-OK) received 27% in '74. And perhaps more importantly, Murkowski becomes the fourth incumbent to lose this month in what is shaping up to be a change election beyond just the lower 48.

So now the question becomes, can Sarah Palin defeat two governors in 11 weeks? The '02 LG candidate and former two-term mayor of Wasilla now faces ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (D) in the November election. Knowles entered the race just days before the filing deadline and only after Murkowski announced (somewhat surprisingly) that he would run again. Though Knowles has said Murkowski's decision didn't factor into his own, he probably liked his odds in another race against a Murkowski rather than a Republican who can claim to be a fresh face. Not only that, but despite being outspent heavily by her two oppponents, Palin managed to top 50% of the vote. Palin's manager, Frank Bailey, said in an e-mail yesterday: "This campaign has been completely grass roots run, from folks building thousands of sign-stakes out of scrap wood, to thousands of volunteers helping on phones, door to door, large events, etc."

A few more points worth mentioning. [MIKE MEMOLI]

When not talking about the JonBenet Ramsey case, TV was still in post-Pres. Bush presser mode, debating the role of Iraq in the '06 election.

MSNBC's Shuster: "Credibility problems or not, President Bush is on the offense when he argues Iraq could be even worse. The question is does that approach really help the president's congressional supporters or does it hurt them badly?" ("Hardball," 8/22).

CNN's Schneider: "The midterm campaign is just beginning, but so far it's the Iraq issue that's framing the election. But still, most Americans do not believe that either party has a decisive advantage in handling the issue" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 8/22).

Washington Post's Milbank: "The administration will continue to link Iraq and al Qaeda. ... And if the president continue to link this, he does pretty well. ... If he can continue to fuse the two together, that's his best shot for Republican victories in November" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/22).

EYEING '06

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) was in the "Situation Room":

Asked about John Kerry's statement that he's taken the GOP cause: "John's is entitled to his opinion. I think he's dead wrong in what he had to say. And it's up to the people of Connecticut to say in November where they are on the war. But the fact is here John Kerry is seeking higher office. He wants to run for the White House again. I take that to be a politically motivated statement by an old friend."

Asked if he's hurt by Dem criticism of him: "When I decided to run as an independent -- and I decided more than a month ago, because I began the petition circulation to get the signatures to be on the ballot -- I did it expecting that most Democrats would follow the old political, partisan rules and go with the nominee, the person who got more votes in the primary. I would be less than human ... if I didn't say that when I saw some of these folks saying the things that they do, it hurts. But you know what? The primary's over. If endorsements mattered and determined elections, I would have won the primary by a lot because I had most of the endorsements" (CNN, 8/22).

CT SEN candidate Alan Schlesinger (R) was on "Hardball."

Schlesinger: "I'm a hawk but I'm a reasonable, rational hawk."

More: "The Washington folks aren't talking to me. They basically are taking their orders from the White House."

More on the GOP: "They're not trying to screw me. That's the whole point. They've designed a scenario that they think will work to help Bush and to help the Republicans nationwide by saying, listen, the liberal wing of the Democratic party has gone nuts. They've gone with this guy Lamont" (MSNBC, 8/22).

And FNC's Cameron examined the AK GOV race. Cameron: "Barring last-minute come-from-behind surprises from Mr. Murkowski, he could become the first nationally recognized Republican to go down in the 2006 election campaign" ("Special Report," 8/22). [EMILY GOODIN]

1980 was the last cycle in which more than one incumbent Senator was defeated in a primary. In fact, four went down that year: Sens. Richard Stone (D-FL), Donald Stewart (D-AL), Mike Gravel (D-AK), and Jacob Javits (R-NY). Chafee and Akaka (joining Lieberman) could make it 3 this cycle. And with Frank Murkowski's loss, he could be added since he's an ex-senator (and beneficiary of the original 1980 record).

Alaska primary results

Oklahoma primary results

Wyoming primary results

BTW, take note of GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin's primary showing, which was lower than both Tom DeLay and Bob Ney. Only PA 10's embattled incumbent Don Sherwood received less this cycle for a non-freshman incumbent. She barely nabbed 60%. Dem nominee Gary Trauner has raised real money (and could write his own check or so we hear). This may be a dark horse race no more. Also, OK LG Mary Fallin will be the next member of Congress from OK's 5th District after her runoff victory last night.

Burned by a blog-induced firestorm over an an off-hand comment at a campaign rally, Sen. George Allen's campaign is seeking a conservative blog maven who can blunt future attacks and help rally conservatives in the state and elsewhere behind Allen's campaign.

The search is one of several steps Allen's brain trust will take in the next few weeks to retool his campaign. Several Republicans close to the campaign said Allen was deeply frustrated at what one Republican called "the inept response and lack of ability of his team to handle crisis management in an effective and professional manner."

Today, Allen's campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, sent allies an e-mail memo blasting the media for refusing to accept Allen's apology. The memo suggests that that the campaign may try to focus support for Allen by portraying him as a victim of a liberal media elite.

"Apparently the media's standard for candidates is now that they must be perfect, not human, and that no mistake or verbal gaffe is to be forgiven, no matter how much the candidate apologize," Wadhams writes in the memo. "Will the Washington Post hold it's candidate for the U.S. Senate to the same standard? We will see, but I'm not holding my breath."

Later, he writes, "You are the secret weapon that Senator Allen has always confounded the pundits with." The memo ends with an exhortation to "show the liberal interest groups that by coming to Virginia, they have gotten more than they bargained for and that they need not bother us ever again!"

According to an e-mail circulating among conservatives, Chris LaCivita, Allen's longtime strategist, and other Allen aides believe that the campaign has so far failed to appreciate the generative role that bloggers can play -- and the consequences that pertain when the GOP Netroots aren't mobilizied on behalf of candidates.

LaCivita is looking for a prominent conservative online strategist to join the campaign's staff. Chad Dotson, a Virginia prosecutor who blogs as Commonwealth Conservative, is helping LaCivita with the recruitment effort. Since Dotson is an elected official and is soon up for re-election, it's unlikely that he'd be cleared to join the campaign as a paid staff member.

LaCivita declined to comment and Dotson did not respond to an e-mail sent to an address listed on his website. The authencity of the e-mail was confirmed by two sources who were privy to its creation and distribution.

LaCivita is an expert at bypassing the traditional media filter. He maintains backchannel relationships with many prominent bloggers and political webmasters. He crafted the strategy that used the conservative blogosphere to distribute the initial claims made by members of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. In 2004, Dick Wadhams, Allen's campaign manager, employed two bloggers to help delegitimize South Dakota's most influential newspaper. Wadhams believed that the Sioux Falls Argus Leader was hopelessly biased against challenger John Thune and in favor of longtime incumbent Tom Daschle.

But Virginia Republican bloggers have yet to rally behind Allen with the same intensity that the liberal Netroots has circled James Webb.

President Bush will raise money for Allen tomorrow night. Today, a White House spokesperson said Allen's apology was good enough for them and that the President has no qualms about helping Allen. [MARC AMBINDER]

We don't as a rule publish results from Zogby Internet or Rasmussen polls.

And we are generally wary about putting too much stock into one campaign's internal polls. An exception carves out when those polls are openly released and touted -- and when the opposing campaign fails to respond or responds in a way that suggests their internal snapshot looks much the same.

Fresh from the field, the DSCC released a poll conducted by the Benenson Strategy Group showing an 11 point lead by Bob Casey in a three way Pennsylvania Senate race with Sen. Rick Santorum and Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli. In a two-way race absent Romanelli, Casey leads by 14 points.

The sample size is 821, and DSCC spokesman Phil Singer describes the screen as follows: adults, 18+, voted in either '02 or '04 (or registerd after '04) who say they are likely to vote.

Yesterday, Sen. Rick Santorum's campaign e-mailed supporters a memo sent to campaign manager Vince Galko by pollster Neil Newhouse (R).

Newhouse conveniently notes that the campaign "isn't scheduled" to go back in the field until after Labor Day, but pointed that a slew of public polls showed a tightened race after a $5M largely unanswered Santorum television buy.

Concludes Newhouse: "All along we said that this race would close once voters got another look at Rick Santorum. Our internal goal was to be within six-seven points by Labor Day, then close the remaining margin over the last eight weeks of the race.

Singer responds in his memo: "With numbers like these, it’s no surprise that Santorum is willing to bend the law to get a Green Party candidate on the ballot. He knows he can’t win without splitting the vote for Casey. It won’t work because people are sick of politicians playing these kinds of games and want a new direction.”

Is the race closer than it was before? The preponderance of the data, which includes several public polls, reactions from the campaigns and the general effect of television advertisements, suggests that it is. That same evidence suggests that as soon as Casey's television presence matches Santorum's and voters begin to follow the race, the tightening that Santorum is touting and the Democrats say isn't there -- might go away.

Either way, Casey's lead is nothing to sneeze at.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) announced his statewide leadership team in Michigan today. The new co-chairs of his Commonwealth PAC include the Speaker of the House, Craig DeRoche, Romney's brother in law, , John Rakolta, Jr. and David Fischer. Rakolta and Fischer will tend to fundraising while DeRoche will advise the PAC on politics.

The announcement pricked the ears of Gary Glenn, the chairman of Campaign for Michigan Families and the president of the American Family Association in Michigan.

According to several Republicans with experience running statewide campaigns in the state, if Glenn is for you, he doesn't help much. If he's dead set against you, he can hurt you.

Glenn is dead set against Romney. He has researched Romney's background and is intent on making sure that conservatives know about it.

In an e-mail to conservative activists in Michigan this morning, Glenn cautions that "before volunteering to work for Mitt Romney this weekend, be sure you're aware of the record you're being asked to support."

Writes Glenn: "A politician who for a decade gives rhetorical aid, comfort, and legitimacy to the pro-"choice' and "sexual orientation" movements should not be rewarded with the Republican presidential nomination, just because he claims ever so conveniently that his views have now 'evolved.'"

Attached to Glenn's e-mail is a column he wrote. Glenn: "Romney's ten-year political career has occurred from his late 40s to his late 50s, yet he asks pro-family conservatives to naively believe that he's just now figuring out his core beliefs." More Glenn: "I attended last fall's GOP conference in Michigan, where Romney continued his masquerade as a 'conservative,' even daring to tell the assembled activists: 'I am pro-life' -- knowing full well that he does not mean by that term what those listening would think he meant." More Glenn: "According to the Associated Press, he has appointed at least two openly homosexual lawyers to state judgeships, one a board member of the Lesbian and Gay Bar Association. Imagine how that will fly in Republican presidential primaries in the South, the prospect of a president with a record of appointing homosexual activists to the bench."

In the space of about six months, Romney, a Massachusetts governor, a Mormon, a Republican who recently favored abortion rights and civil unions for gays, has become the darling of many elite conservative activists looking for an acceptable heir to President Bush and an alternative to John McCain.

That Romney is a principled, unwavering conservative is unquestioned by his new allies, much to chagrin of Romney's potential opponents. Glenn's missive suggests that his past remains a subject to debate. [MARC AMBINDER]

What kind of coattails will House members running for SEN and GOV provide to their down-ballot ticket-mates? Nine members sought higher office last cycle, but all left behind safe seats. This cycle, 15 are running up-ballot -- and many of their former CDs are key GOP battlegrounds:

-- CO 07: Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) surprised many in '02 when he won the Dem-leaning open seat. But will his ex-primary challenger, Rick O'Donnell (R), get a boost from his GOV run?

-- IA 01: Rep. Jim Nussle (R) won 8 terms in a CD that voted for Clinton, Gore and Kerry. Can restaurateur Mike Whalen (R), a political neophyte, repeat the successful formula?

-- MN 06: Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) only received 54% in '04 against Patty Wetterling (D), running behind Bush. Was that a sign of Wetterling's strength, or will state Sen. Michele Bachmann (R) improve on that number? (Also, Bush travels to MN today; will that help or hurt Bachmann?)

-- Will these GOPers primarily campaign outside the CD, believing they've got their home base sown up? Or will they spend increased time helping their party's Congressional hopefuls [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

John Dickerson devoted an entire Slate item to the role anti-Sen. Joe Lieberman
As the rest of the nation ponders solutions to Iraq war troubles, progressive bloggers are also mired in their own strategic quagmire in CT.

After toppling Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) in the 8/8 Dem primary, progressives are finding it more difficult than anticipated to rid themselves permanently of the 18-year incumbent. Now that it's clear cable exec Ned Lamont (D-CT) faces a tough battle that threatens to drain progressive resources and attention from other races, as well as draw out GOPers in close House races, some are arguing that Lamont should be cut loose to focus on the larger war against the GOP.

For now, the "stay the course" crowd is winning the debate. But a lot, as they say, can change between now and 11/06.

Today's Blogometer

A majority of last night's coverage (that wasn't JonBenet) concentrated on Pres. Bush's first full-fledged news conference since early 7/06.

CNN's Henry: "The president started out jovial. He was joking with reporters about our temporary digs across the street from the White House. He even teased one journalist about his seersucker suit, but I can tell you the mood shifted pretty quickly in that room because of the fact that the president was very serious and sober about the situation in Iraq" ("Situation Room," CNN, 8/21).

Ex-WH advisor David Gergen, on Bush's comment that as long as he is pres., the US is not leaving Iraq: "It suggests all this kind of speculation we've had, the encouragement we've had from within the administration, from within the military, that U.S. troops would start to withdraw this year, is clearly -- putting cold water on that now and saying 'I'm going to fight this out under my presidency'" ("AC 360," CNN, 8/21).

Syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer: "If the argument is about withdrawing now, I think he can win the argument. If the argument's about was it worth it in the past, the original decision, he may lose it. So that's why he wants to focus on the issue right now. ... The major argument for withdrawal is that we can't win. We are losing anyway. Why lose another soldier? It's a losing cause. The president has to address that. That is a reasonable argument because the indices looks as if it is negative and he has to explain how we are going to change our strategy. He did talk about in saying the idea of securing Baghdad" ("Special Report," FNC, 8/21).

NBC's O'Donnell: "What was so noticeable was the forcefulness of the president. His animated
defense that American troop wills stay in Iraq despite public anxiety over the war. Bringing them out too soon, he said, would be, in his words, 'a disaster'" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/21).

CNN's Pilgrim: "President Bush today delivered one of the most blunt assessments of the war in Iraq. The president said the war is straining the psyche of this country. President Bush admitted, the chaos in Iraq is likely to be a major factor for U.S. voters in the midterm elections. But the president said, an early U.S. withdrawal from Iraq would help the enemy" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 8/21).

Wall Street Journal's Fund, asked if he was surprised by Bush's change in tone: "The facts on the ground have been getting worse and I think the public has been waiting for some shift in the president's mood rather than just stay the course. The president has an opportunity now, his polls are slightly up after the bomb plot. Remember, we've not been attacked for the last five years. That is a success for this president. But Iraq is bad news and there's an election 80 days away. I think the president is thinking about his reality. The problem is this, he doesn't exude confidence and that's what you need in order to carry this war to a successful conclusion" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 8/21).

MSNBC's Matthews, on the news conference: "This puts Iraq the No. 1 concern for the American people in the spotlight for the upcoming election and directly on the front burner for the 2008 presidential contenders."

More: "It seemed like he did a very good job, no matter what your politics or your journalistic instincts are of saying hey, this is what the campaign is going to be about" ("Hardball," 8/21).

DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel (D-IL): "All the president is offering is stay the course and that is not
acceptable when you go from a position that every milestone is mission accomplished, the insurrection is in its last throws. Every milestone this administration has predicted about how Iraq was going was wrong and their present course has gotten us to a position we're in an endless occupation by this president. And he is not altering course or dealing with the different terrain that Iraq is. It is not the Iraq we entered that he claimed mission accomplished three short years ago. ... That tells you the course he's on isn't working" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/21).

SILENCE IS GOLDEN?

At yesterday's press conference, Bush was also asked about the CT SEN race.

Bush: "I'm going to stay out of Connecticut."

Bush, after being reminded he was born there: "Shh, I maybe the only person, the only presidential candidate who never carried the state in which he was born. And by the way, I'm staying out of Connecticut because, you know, that's what the party suggested, the Republican Party of Connecticut, and plus there's a better place to spend our money, time and resources."

Washington Time's McCaslin, asked if this is Bush's "nice way of saying I'm rooting
for" Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) over GOP nominee Alan Schlesinger: "Yeah. He is steering clear, no doubt about it, of Mr. Schlesinger. And I think for good reason. ... I think that you'll find President Bush from the periphery supporting Joe Lieberman, especially now that all the Democrats are starting to go towards Lamont" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/21).

There was also some talk on Lieberman calling for Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld's resignation.

CNN's Brazile: "If Senator Lieberman had said this almost a month ago, he would be the Democratic nominee" ("Situation Room," 8/21).

Washington Post's Cillizza, asked why Lieberman is saying that now: "This is a little bit of political jujitsu, I think, on Lieberman's part. ... What you see when he's calling for Donald Rumsfeld to resign is an attempt to shore up that one in three voters who say, I'm not really ... comfortable with Lamont, but I am a Democrat and I don't know if I can vote for Joe Lieberman because of the war. He's saying look, I'm not a Republican. ... We need moreaccountability, he's needs to have done a better job and the fact that he doesn't means he should go. So, I think that's what it's aimed at" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/21).

A PACEMAKER FOR THE PRES.

An update on Pres. Gerald Ford's medical condition:

CNN's Oppenheim: "It sounds like pretty good news for former president, Gerald Ford. A statement from the Mayo Clinic ... says that he's completed an evaluation and series of tests and the result is an implantation of a cardiac pacemaker to enhance his heart's performance" ("Situation Room," 8/21) [KATHERINE LEHR].

David All, the Republican conference's uber-web-geek-cum-online-evangelist, will spend the last two months of the cycle in Michigan as communications director for Michigan Senate candidate Mike Bouchard.

With the blessing of his boss, conference vice chair Jack Kingston, All has revolutionized how Kingston communicates with his district, with national media, with national conservative activists, and even with his fellow members of Congress. His sophisticated understanding of the new media and his peripatetic willingness to try something new (interns, blogging, for goodness sakes) has earned him a healthy dollop of media attention.

All will not admit this, but several '08 campaigns are admirers.

In Michigan, All will join another Republican media innovator. Saul Anuzis, the state party chairman, was the first and is the only Republican Party state chair to spend time each day actually blogging and actually blogging something worth reading.

His posts contain insider nuggets about the latest ads put out by Team GOP, his daily thoughts on Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), unblinkered calendar information about visits by upcoming presidential candidates, and updates from meetings of county chairs and major fundraisers.

Anuzis's penchant for transparency has made some Republicans at upper levels of the GOP nervous and led some others to conclude that he subtly plays favorites, but his posts don't reveal strategy or tactical decisions. And the success of the Michigan GOP at reaching and exceeding party goals speaks for itself.

BTW: All's opponent, bracketwise, is Brent Colburn, formerly a top aide to Howard Dean and a creative and canny researcher at the Democratic National Committee. Colburn is communications director to Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

1. His poll numbers might be up, but Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) Web site is still pretty much down -- minus (ironically) a YouTube video explaining his Indie bid.

2. If you signed up for Gov. Arnold's Schwarzenegger's text messenge campaign this weekend, you might see a few extra charges show up on your cell phone bill. The campaign asked supporters to sign up by texting the word "GOV" to 5055 to keep them updated with ongoings at the California Republican Party State Convention this weekend. When The Hotline signed up, we received no less than NINE text messages over two days. A little intense, especially given SMS number five (1:30pm PST on Saturday) asked us to donate over the phone.

3. Check out this series of WIKI articles on '08 called "Can the Internets make me president?" brought to you by New Organizing Institute. Founder Zack Exley plans to publish the series as a booklet after '06.

4. The polls are is up to vote for your favorite Democratic candidates for both the DCCC and Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriots Fund. Has anyone else noticed that only Democrats (Warner, Edwards, and Boxer to name a few) do this kind of fundraiser contest? Is it because conventional wisdom says there's more Dem fundraising action on the internet? Or because after continuous losses in both houses, they think it's better left up to internet voters to decide? Discuss amongst yourselves.

Other bytes to keep you satisfied:
*Is Conrad Burns sleeping on the job?
*The DSCC has had it with these **** snakes on a Senate.
*The RNC wants you to see "A Safer America."
*Wisconsin Gubernatorial candidate Mark Green has a nifty map up tracking his 100 stops in Wisconsin, complete with corresponding video.
*Sen. Barack Obama is making a trip back to his homeland (or more accurately, his father's homeland) and has the pictures to prove it. Also check out the Chicago Sun-Times and Chicago Tribune who are also following the trip using multi-media.

Pres. Bush continues to hover in the mid-to-high 30s in approval rating. He once sank to 30%. But in the latest Time Magazine survey, former Pres. Bill Clinton clocks in job approval ratings of an amazing 70%, up four points from the last poll of his presidency, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted a week before he left office.

The Time poll is fun because it asks a lot of questions about B. Clinton, but it's more notable for the questions it asks about Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) as she gears up for a possible presidential bid.

Among the many things we learn in the poll is that HRC is the most popular Dem tested, aside from her husband -- her fav/unfavs stand at 53%/43%, 4 points higher than the second-rated Dem, Al Gore. Respondents also say they'd "definitely" or "probably" favor an HRC pres. bid more than any other Dem tested (46%, as opposed to 41% for Gore, 40% for Sen. John Kerry and 36% for ex-Sen. John Edwards).

Meanwhile, 94% see "intelligent" as describing HRC a lot or a little, while 73% think "strong leader" describes her a lot or a little. And what if she does run? Will she be seen as too close to her husband? 67% say B. Clinton should play a role, either major or minor, in HRC's campaign, and if she wins, 55% say he ought to have a role in the administration.

So the Big Number may not really be 70, but it provides a jumping-off point for the most interesting poll of the day, and one we're sure will be on the lips of breathless Fox News analysts for weeks to come. [REID WILSON]

Late word this afternoon that David Wallace, the mayor of Sugarland. won't file to run as an independent to succeed Tom DeLay on the TX 22 ballot.

His announcement comes a few days after GOP county chairs in the district endorsed Houston City Councilor Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R).

Libertarian Bob Smither joines Nick Lampson (D) on the ballot.

And why not NV? Well, until the Republicans join in and until the '08 candidates begin to take the state seriously, NV remains a sub-troika state.

Quinnipiac's latest poll suggests that the anti-war sentiment in CT isn't as fervent as anticipated, which would be comforting news for the state's GOP incumbents.

-- The poll finds that 41% of likely voters agreed with Joe Lieberman on the Iraq war, and 21% more said it wouldn't be a decisive factor. (We'd still like to see more questions like this with different wordings.) In CT 04, 58% wouldn't boot Joe because of the war; in CT 02, 66% said they wouldn't. That gives Reps. Simmons, Shays and Johnson a decent-sized base to win over voters on their domestic record.

-- Another sign that the timetable approach isn't getting much traction? CT 04 nominee Diane Farrell (D) said 8/16 that setting a date-certain withdrawal was "unrealistic," a statement embraced by Lieberman. Her CD encompasses some of Ned Lamont's strongest-performing towns, but she's now striking a moderate tone on the war. In a race that's been defined by Iraq, can she afford to sound too much like Shays (or Lieberman) on how to proceed?
[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

--NRCC and NRSC Gets the Members Involved

--RNC Transfers Millions To State Parties

Party and campaign committee monthly filings were due at the FEC 8/20

Cmte        Receipts     Disbursements    CoH
All figures in $M

NRCC        $12.6       $4.9              $34.1
DCCC        $4.2        $3.0              $33.0
NRSC        $3.3        NA                $20.6  
DSCC        $4.2        NA                $35.1
RNC         $8.0        $9.1              $43.6
DNC         $5.0        $4.6              $11.3
 

The NRCC's increase in receipts is attributed to increasing returns from members of Congress and PACs as well as checks due from June's mega-dinner with Pres. Bush. The NRCC spent nearly $2M on phone banks in July. On 7/11, the committee transferred $53K to the Ohio GOP. The DCCC spent more than $600K on telemarketing and sent $433K to Greer, Margolis, Mitchell and Burns for media buys. The NRSC tells us that GOP senators ponied up twice as much as Dem senators.

The DNC transferred out nearly $300K; the RNC gave its affiliates more than $2.4M, including more than $300K to the AZ GOP, $200K to the IL GOP, $200K to the IN GOP, $284K to the NM GOP, and $120K to the CT GOP. Overall, the federal GOP committees have approx. $21M more CoH than the Dems cmtes.

Sometimes I’m frustrated. I’m rarely surprised. Sometimes I’m happy. The war is not a time of joy. These aren’t joyous times. These are challenging times. These are difficult times. They are straining the psyche of our country and I understand that.

It happened all the way at the end of his news conference and we don't yet have a transcript, but Pres. Bush stood foresquare by his acting FDA Commissioner Andrew von Eschenbach , whose agency has endorsed over-the-counter sales of a birth control drug, Plan B, to women over 18.

Washington-based social conservative lobbyists object, and the Family Research Council recently came out against Van Eschenbach's confirmation.

Those under 18 should be able to obtain the medication only with a perscription, Bush said this morning. That mimics the FDA's guidance to Plan B's manufacturer, Duramed.

Democrats, like Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Patty Murray think the FDA has dithered over Plan B's approval because its political appointees fear reprisal from the Bush administration.

Talk of the situation in the Middle East dominated the Sunday shows:

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), on whether the cease-fire will work: "I think there's a realistic chance that it will work. It depends upon whether the United Nations fulfills the commitment to put a robust force on the ground. ... The progress has not been too good so far. There's been a little disappointment that the French have not put up a substantial force, which they had committed to, but it is early yet" ("Late Edition," CNN, 8/20).

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), on the US re-establishing a high-level dialogue with Syria: "I don't really support this business that we only talk with people that we agree with. I think you talk with people you disagree with. I think it is a mistake to isolate governments. You isolate governments and they become more recalcitrant, not less recalcitrant. ... I think it's extraordinarily important to sit down, when you have a point of difference, and talk with the nation. And, for the life of me, I have never understood this reluctance to do so" ("Late Edition," CNN, 8/20).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), asked if Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld should keep his job: "That's up to the president of the United States. The president picks his team and ... as long as the president has confidence in him, then he'll keep that team."

More: "I've been asked a number of times if I had confidence in Secretary Rumsfeld and the answer is no."

Asked if the war in Iraq is comparable to the Vietnam War: "I don't think so. In Vietnam there was a government that never had support of the people. It was a sort of a revolving door. ... I believe that ... this freely-elected government probably still has the support of most of the people in Iraq. And there are areas of Iraq that are well under government control. ... We risk failure in Iraq, but I don't believe that we have reached nearly that point yet. I think we can still salvage it" ("Meet The Press," NBC, 8/20).

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), asked if the US should begin withdrawing troops: "I'm not saying pull out of Iraq. That's not what I've said. I've said start withdrawing troops. We have to show the Iraqi people ... that we are not there to predetermine their outcome. We're not there to control or to govern. They are going to have to do that. ... There are very few options here. We don't have any good options. ... So to continue to feed American troops into this I think takes away America's diplomatic options and military options because we're more and more bogged down" ("Fox News Sunday," FNC, 8/20).

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), asked about his comments that he would have prevented the war between Israel and Lebanon: "Well, what I was talking about was Iraq and the whole confluence of events in the Middle East. ... I know that I would have handled the diplomacy and the relationship with a group of nations completely differently, in a way that would have leveraged the United States, not diminished it."

More: "The only way to resolve Iraq, according to our generals, according to Secretary Rice, according to all of the experts, is not militarily, it is politically and diplomatically. And we have an absence of the kind of effort that is going to do that. You have to bring all of the parties in the region together. And incidentally, that includes Syria and Iran" ("This Week," ABC, 8/20).

"We're not leaving while I'm the president."

Here's how the Dems will make the contrast.

"What the president has confirmed today is that a vote for a Republican Congress is a vote for more of the same in Iraq. It's that simple. If Americans like President Bush's leadership in Iraq, they can choose to keep a Republican Congress that will let him go on as he has with absolutely no accountability." e-mails Bill Burton of the DCCC.

Friday's Big Number takes a look at two separate polls out of Wisconsin, where Gov. Jim Doyle (D) faces a tough re-election fight against Rep. Mark Green (R). Both campaigns are on the air, mud is flying and the race promises excitement right down to the wire.

Early polls have shown Doyle leading narrowly, and while one of these polls show that trend continuing, another tells a different story.

Strategic Vision, a GOP polling firm, has Doyle leading Green by 2 points, 45%-43%. A Research 2000 poll has Doyle leading by a solid 10 points, 48%-38%. That's an 8-point difference in Doyle's lead -- our Big Number.

Why the difference? Strategic Vision uses the voter file to cull their sample size, which tends to lead to a slight GOP tilt in their samples. Research 2000, on the other hand, uses random digit dialing which tends toward a more reflective sample.

Check out Monday's Hotline for both polls in their complete form. [REID WILSON]

Ask any IL Dem to explain why Gov. Rod Blagojevich faces a rocky reelection bid, and they'll reply that his troubles are self-inflicted, personality driven and, most importantly to them, not reflective of the state party's overall strength.

That response has always seemed a tad defensive ("it's Rod's fault, not ours"). But if the gov's performance at the DNC meeting in Chicago this weekend is any indication, that response is also spot on.

Blago started off his 8/19 a.m. performance by keeping a room packed with hundreds of Dem activists and donors waiting -- for 20 mins -- forcing a visibly irritated DNC Chair Howard Dean to stall. When he finally arrived, Blagojevich breezed through an apology and into a stock ice-breaker "joke" about riding in his motorcade and being mistaken for Chicago Mayor Richard Daley by a little girl. "And that's not because my last name's hard to pronounce," he quipped.

Ba dum bum.

Curiously, he then wandered into an unflattering, caricature imitation of Dem icon Bill Clinton and spoke glowingly about how flattered he was, "as a lowly nobody freshman congressman," when Clinton invited him to fly aboard Air Force One in '97. (For those Dems who didn't raise their eyebrows at his exaggerated Arkansas accent, he then recounted the advice his "mama" gave him when he called to tell her he was on AF1: "Don't let him get you in any trouble.")

Ah, but there's more. Blagojevich then told the DNCers about his "guiding political philosophy," which isn't something you learn by reading big fancy books in school. "In fact, most of those books, I read only as much as I needed in order to pass the tests," he explains proudly.

No, friends, he says, Blagojevich's guiding political philosophy is something his mama taught him when he was just a small child. "It's called the golden rule."

I kid you not.

Asked what she thought of Blagojevich's speech, one top DNCer replied monosyllablically: "Blah," she said. [JOHN MERCURIO>]

Manchester and Des Moines, meet Vegas and Charleston

Following a brief but angry speech from a top NH Dem, the DNC formally ratified a plan to add NV and SC to the list of early-voting states for the '08 presidential campaign. The schedule, previously approved by the DNC's rules and bylaws cmte, is as follows: IA caucus on 1/14, NV caucus on 1/19, NH primary on 1/22 and SC primary on 1/29.

Concluding its summer meeting in Chicago, DNCers approved the plan over the fierce objections of NH Dem Chair Kathy Sullivan, who called it a "hurried and band-aid approach" to the real issue of "front-loading" presidential primaries.

Sullivan opened her remarks this morning by wishing Bill Clinton, who has backed NH in this debate, a happy 60 birthday, which is today. "And frankly, it's a little ironic we're considering this rule today because had this been in effect in 1992, I do not believe he would have been president of the United States."

Sullivan said Dems, facing a "historic opportunity to take back Congress and the White House," is instead "tinkering with the calendar. ... If I truly thought this plan would win us the White House in '08, I would support it and face the wrath of friends back in New Hampshire. But it won't. The continued compressing of this calendar is goign to rob candidates of the process they need to put together a winning campaign."

Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D-OH) strongly backed the plan. She said it goes a long way to achieve "rich diversity," on many levels, that the party needs in its nominating process. "We are, thank God, an evolving party. Our rules aren't stagnant. They aren't meant to be."

Tubbs-Jones, who is African-American, drew parallels between the new calendar and the civil-rights battle dating back to the 1960s. "This is another link in that unfolding chain that began in 1964 and lives on today," she said to raucous applause from DNCers. "Together, these states add rich diversity."

The vote paves the way for '08 Dems to start lavishing attention -- and money -- on party activists in NV and SC as they seek to build their bases. With that in mind, NV GOV nominee Dina Titus (D) was in Chicago this weekend helping to raise her state's profile. "Let the parade of presidential hopefuls into the state begin!" wrote NV political analyst Jon Ralston in a RalstonFlash sent minutes after the DNC vote. [JOHN MERCURIO]

DNC Chair Howard Dean today tried to make one thing clear to his GOP rivals: If they want to fight the '06 midterms on nat'l security, Dems are ready.

Presenting a dark and threatening image of the world under Pres. Bush's foreign policy, Dean said voters should rebuke a "failed" Bush/GOP agenda this fall by electing Democrats.

"Iraq is sliding into civil war," Dean said in his address to the DNC general session this morning. "Iran is about to obtain nuclear weapons. North Korea has four times more nuclear weapons than they did when Bush took office. The Taliban is comign back in Afghanistan partly because we don't have enough troops there, partly because they're in Iraq. And five years after 9/11, Osama bin Laden is still free."

Dean said the "occupation" of Iraq "comes at great cost" to American voters, "a majority of whom oppose the war and agree with the Democratic position that we should begin a phased redeployment of our troops by the end of the year." [JOHN MERCURIO]

DNC Chair Howard Dean frequently places blame for a wide array of woes at the feet of Pres. Bush and the GOP. Today, to that list, he added frustrating airport delays.

Dean made the link between GOPers and airport delays, which are due largely to increased security measures following the recent London bomb scare, while introducing a speaker who had to leave the DNC's summer meeting early to catch an overseas flight, "given how difficult that is these days."

"But we won't get into that," Dean added, flashing that devlish grin that means he knows he's about to say something he shouldn't. "We all know whose fault that is, but this isn't the partisan part of the program." [JOHN MERCURIO]

WHAT'S BREWING

Caution, you're entering a [Dem] spin zone.

Strategists leading the Dems' campaign to retake Capitol Hill gave DNCers a detailed overview of the '06 landscape, in which they agreed with DNC Chair Howard Dean's opening assessment that "if the election were held today, we'd have a terrific shot at taking back the Senate and we would take back the House."

In other words, officials said, Dems remain better positioned in the House than in the Senate, where they have yet to identify a sixth realistic pick-up opportunity (prospects include VA, TN and AZ, none of which currently features a Dem frontrunner).

Nonetheless, the DSCC's J.B. Poersch and DCCC's Karin Johanson gave a realistic-to-rosy picture of the '06 campaign cycle. Poersch was particularly rosy in his assessment; He included the IN SEN race in his hand-out packet of "Races to Watch 2006," even though Dems failed to even recruit a challenger to incumbent GOP Sen. Dick Lugar there.

(Speaking afterward, one Dem said the session could have been more useful if officials had closed it to the press, allowing the strategists to be far more frank in their assessments of the races. "It just felt like a pep rally, all spin and no substance, and we really need to know where we actually stand," he said).

Johanson said the DCCC is in great financial shape, having more CoH for the second month in a row (a first, ever). She said the cmte is watching 15 races in the West, 18 in the northeast, 19 in the midwest and 14 in the south -- a relatively equal regional distribution that officials noted was in line with Dean's "50 State strategy."

"Our biggest problem may be that we have more [competitive races] than we can handle," she said. "We'll have to be judicious about our spending."

She said Dems will also have an effective GOTV effort. "One thing I'm offended by is that I read in the paper about how Republicans are so great at getting out the vote. Apparently no one ever got a vote out before the Republicans' 2002 '72-hour Project," she said. "We are going to get out the vote."

She also provided this interesting nugget: There are currently 67 Dems in targeted House races with more than $200K on hand. Fifty-three of them have more than $500K in the bank; 40 have more than $750K, 28 have more than $1M and five candidates have more than $2M on hand, she said.

For his part, Dean told Dems that the DNC is spending $12M combined on House, SEN, GOV and state legis races this cycle, targeting 38 House and 7 SEN races. [JOHN MERCURIO]

Trying to discourage another "Zell Miller" situation, DNCers advanced a
resolution at their summer meeting in Chicago today that would punish any
top Dem who backs a WH GOPer in '08.

Two years after ex-GA Sen./Gov. Zell Miller (D?) vexed his party leaders by
backing Pres. Bush and speaking at the GOP convention, the DNC's rules and
bylaws cmte passed a resolution that would strip any Dem of his status as an
'08 convention delegate if he/she "publicly expressed support or endorsement
for the election of a Republican" WH candidate.

"We had a sitting senator who literally spoke on the floor of the Republican
convention in 2004," said DNCer Alice Germond. "That cannot happen again."
[JOHN MERCURIO]

CHICAGO -- Last week, Dem-turned-indie Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT) was rejected by his own
state party. Now, he may also be scolded by its nat'l counterpart. Sources
say DNCers, at their summer meeting in Chicago this weekend, may take up a
resolution 8/19 that would reprimand the Senator for "ignoring the will of
the Connecticut Democratic Party" by running as an independent after losing
the 8/8 primary.

The DNC's resolutions cmte was expected to consider the measure this a.m.,
but failed to do so because it wasn't submitted on time, said cmte co-chair
Maria Echeveste. Supporters plan to bring it up again Saturday at the
executive cmte meeting. [JOHN MERCURIO]

CHICAGO -- Re-igniting a regional rivalry over their party's '08 primary calendar,
DNCers today moved to penalize '08 Dem candidates who campaign in states
that "jump" ahead of the DNC-sanctioned timeline.

Following a testy debate, the DNC's rules and bylaws cmte approved a
resolution by SC's Carol Khare Fowler that would deny those '08 candidates
the delegate votes or pledged delegates from those states.

Fowler said she was concerned that state legislators across the country,
jealous of the attention '08 Dems and the media traditionally shower upon
early-voting states, would try to stack the calendar with local primaries in
early 1/08, or even 12/07. Some may even do so with the tacit support of
their state Dem chairs, she said. "This gives us some ammunition to keep
states from causing the kinds of problems that in the past few years one or
two states have tried to create," Fowler said.

She drew support from MI Dem Chair Mark Brewer, who said states "are always
penalized for violating DNC rules, but candidates escape scot-free. That is
not right. That is not fair."

The cmte passed the resolution over the strong objections of NH Dem Chair
Kathy Sullivan, who said her colleagues were reacting to suspicions, fueled
in part by her states's SoS, that NH would try to jump ahead of the
DNC-supported calendar.

"I'm not quite sure where to start," Sullivan began, her voice shaking. "For
some folks, this is an anti-New Hampshire, but I think I'll ignore that for
now."

"Unless a rule is directly related to taking back the White House, or
helping to build this party, I'm not sure why we should be considering it,"
she said. "The rules and bylaws committee shouldn't be in the business of
hurting candidates for the nomination. We should be helping them."

She said the resolution was being advanced "in a very rushed fashion," and
she scolded her colleagues for negotiating the provision without consulting
her directly.

"I just think this makes no sense, and I'm not sure it's being done for the
right reasons," she said. "I think it's being done for some other reasons by
some other people."

Joining Sullivan in criticizing the measure was DNCer Alice Germond, who
said she was concerned about the "unintended consequences of this,"
including "repercussions that might result in our not winning that state in
the general election."

IA Dem Chair Sally Pederson said the measure, as worded, might discourage
'08 Dems from coming into states to campaign and raise money for other
down-ballot candidates, out of fear of violating the rule.

Ex-DNC Chair Don Fowler insisted the measure was not "anti-New Hampshire, at
least in my opinion. Any interpretation that reaches that conclusion is not
accurate."

Ultimately, the rules cmte approved the measure, following the nudging of
member Harold Ickes, who said, "Look, you can nitpick anything to death, but
i think this rule makes sense. There ought to be a burden on the
candidates."

DNC Chair Howard Dean declined to comment on the amendment. [JOHN MERCURIO]

Joe Lieberman's indie CT SEN campaign sent out a release to announce the hiring of two new consultants: media/direct mail consultant Josh Isay and pollster Neil Newhouse. Isay mostly works with Dems, with his most prominent former employer being Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the current DSCC chair. Isay ran Schumer's '98 bid, though has not worked with Schumer this cycle. Isay also has done work for Republican NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Of course, Bloomberg mostly uses Dem consultants, not GOP consultants.

The more curious hiring, of course, is Newhouse, a partner in one of the most prestigious Republican polling firms in the country, Public Opinion Strategies. On the merits, Newhouse is a great hire as he and his firm have one of the best reputations in the business, both with their clients and with the media, including us. But what makes the hiring curious is that Newhouse is a Republican and has a slew of clients who will likely raise the ire of Democrats, particularly activist Democrats.

This cycle, Newhouse's most notable client is PA Sen. Rick Santorum. (Subscribers, click here of The Hotline's consultant scorecard.) The Lieberman release, of course, makes no mention of Santorum, but does note Newhouse's client relationship with the very popular GOP CT Gov. Jodi Rell. Newhouse is also the chief pollster for one of the Democrats' top House targets, CT 02 GOP Rep. Rob Simmons.

In '04, the firm worked for the biggest Dem killer of the cycle, John Thune, who knocked off Tom Daschle. And in '02, the firm's biggest name client? None other than a Bush, Jeb Bush, that is, in FL.

So which headline will the Lamont folks use in their release? Lieberman hires "Bush" pollster? Lieberman hires Santorum pollster? The party I.D. of a pollster isn't going to make or break this race. However, as Lieberman tries to maneuver in DC and lobby for his Dem seniority should he win, moves like this could cost him support with key Dem leaders. Then again, maybe Lieberman wants some senior Dems to think he could flirt with the GOP so that he does, indeed, get his calls returned and more importantly get his seniority saved. [CHUCK TODD]

For John McCain, the road to the '08 nomination has several byways. One of them is especially critical: identifying, and then mitigating, the roadblocks that kept McCain from winning the nomination last cycle. To these tasks, John Weaver, Mark Salter and other members of McCain's brain trust have dedicated their waking hours. Not enough money? McCain builds a broad and multi-layered donor base. Lack of Southern support? A methodical courtship of Southern politicians and donors (many in Texas). Lack of credibility with the activist elite in some of the early primary states? High profile opinion drivers are joining McCain's PAC. Opposition from social conservatives? McCain is going out of his way to be civil and accomodating (although not necessarily changing his views).

In South Carolina, one obstacle was particularly galling for McCain in '00. He basically split the veterans' vote with George W. Bush. One major reason was Maj. General Stan Spears, the chief of the state's National Guard forces and the man who almost single-handedly convinced thousands of veterans to vote for Bush. Tonight, that obstacle is unblocked. At a fundraiser in Columbia, SC, Spears said publicly he will support McCain if he runs in '08.

The timing was a surprise, even to McCain's aides. Spears was a private supporter -- one of many -- but he intended to wait until after the November elections to come out on McCain's behalf. Spears is admired and is said to informally command an army of loyal foot soldiers. As a practical matter, his validation of McCain should ease the doubts of many McCain doubters.

One other positive item for McCain: he won an unofficial straw poll at the Iowa State Fair -- the Corn Poll, as it's known. McCain took 22 percent of the 839 who voted in the GOP straw poll. Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was a close second. (Mitt Romney took nine percent -- fifth place.) In case you're wondering.... for the Democrats, Ex-Sen. John Edwards tied with Hillary Clinton; each tok 33%. Gov. Tom Vilsack finished third. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Republican Governors Association announced yesterday that it was making a "heavy investment" in the Iowa governor's race. But Rep. Mark Green (R-WI) is the beneficiary of the org's first paid advertising campaign in the '06 cycle. Titled "Auction," the spot focuses on investigations into state contracts awarded to Gov. Jim Doyle (D) contributors. "Cash, contracts, compromises. Gov. Jim Doyle -- he put a price tag on Wisconsin's good name," an announcer says.

The Doyle camp has already aired four TV ads, including a new spot today that directly links Green to Pres. Bush's policies. Green launched his first TV ad just this week, a positive spot that pokes fun at Doyle's claims that he's "too extreme" for Wisconsin. The RGA says that its buy is "totally independent" of Green's campaign. "Wisconsin is a top target race for us," said RGA spokesperson Robert Van Raaphorst.

The RGA held a golf fundraiser in WI last week, and Doyle's camp calls the ad buy "evidence that Mark Green's campaign is all about the big money special interests." Van Raaphorst: "Gov. Doyle and his special interest allies have been running a smear campagin for over a month now."
[MIKE MEMOLI]

In Chicago this weekend, the Democrats will make official their primary calendar gamble, and the woman who many of the cards is Carol Khare Fowler. Fowler wants to punish presidential candidates who "campaign" -- that word is defined specifically in her proposal -- out of order or who endorse delegate selection contests that states hold against the wishes of the DNC. New Hampshire, of course, might run its primary on January 7 or even in 2007, and if a candidate were to actively campaign in New Hampshire ahead of that primary, he or she would lose any delegates won in those state's contests.

Fowler's proposal has the support of most state chairs and Mark Brewer, the influential MI chair, and some members of the RBC, but several prominent members of the DNC are concerned that it is too punitive. One complicating factor: NH Sec/State Bill Gardner won't his state's date until late '07, so candidates and campaigns would be left in limbo, not knowing whether, if they're campaigning in NH, they'd violate the new rules.

Here is the text of Fowler's amendment: "

C. (1)(b) A presidential candidate who campaigns in a state where the state party is in violation of the timing provisions of these rules, or where a primary or caucus is set by a state's government on a date that violates the timing provisions of these rules, may not receive pledged delegates or delegate votes from that state. Candidates may, however, campaign in such after the primary or caucus that violates these rules. "Campaigning" for purposes of this includes, but is not limited to, purchasing print, internet, or electronic advertising that reaches significant percentage of the voters in the aforementioned state; hiring campaign workers; opening an office; making public appearances; holding news conferences; coordinating volunteer activities; sending mail, other than fundraising requests that are also sent to potential donors other states; using paid or volunteer phoners or automated calls to contact voters; sending or establishing a website specific to that state; holding events to which Democratic voters invited; attending events sponsored by state or local Democratic organizations; or paying campaign materials to be used in such a state. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will determine whether candidate activities not specifically mentioned here are covered by this section."

[MARC AMBINDER]

Tom Edsall, writing as the Washinton Diarist in the next edition of New Republic, deals out the history of Washington through poker games. Edsall has been a regular in games since 1974 and he hosts a popular table today.

"The best player I have run into," he writes, was a Republican who works at a major think tank in Washington. "Why was he so successful? Republicans are much less risk-averse than Democrats, and taking risks is crucial to poker." Democrats, Edsall writes, "converseley, are the party of risk-aversion, supportive of the safey net, opposed to new weapons systems and sympathetic to protective trade policies." Dems are "less likely to tolerate the tension and uncertainty of a game in which a week's salary -- o rmore -- can be won or lost in a single game."

Another reason why Edsall thinks Republicans are successful: they reward the talent men have for objectifying the other. "In poker, friends, colleagues, and even loved ones become subjects of manipulation and deceit -- sources of cash who must be persuaded to make mistakes and to misjudge their strengths and your weakenesses."

Edsall's new book -- Building Red America -- is out on August 28. It's quick and dirty thesis: a "Republican Party's candidates attract a greater percentage of men than women by advocating a male view of life as a game in which the rewards justly go to the winners."

Edsall has noticed that conservative poker plays 'are more willing to go for the kill." They will "crush an opponent" with big bets in the closing round when the aggresor knows, from the visible cards, that he is a lock[.]" But "many liberals in these circumstances will simply check and turn over their cards to collect a more modest amount." At a "ring wing" game in Alexandria, everyone by Edsall voted to absorn a $100 shortfall by "making the losers pay, jacking up their debt to make up the deficit."

He concludes: "Empathy and affection damage the ability to win. I think the person who probably best understands all this is Karl Rove."

Ned Lamont’s Connecticut primary victory is giving the Republican Jewish Coalition a pounding headache. The national group, with four offices around the countr, is using the defeat of Sen. Joseph Lieberman as a call to arms for American supporters of Israel.

An August 11th letter from RJC membership coordinator Eric Oxel, raises the alarm that the "John Dingell Democrats" (“I don’t take sides for or against Hezbollah or for or against Israel.”) have taken over the Democratic party “your backyard with the selection of anti-war, extreme left candidate, Ned Lamont.” Included with the letter is a page with a picture of a mournful, ashen Lieberman embracing a disheartened supporter. Toss in a typically loony and malicious quote from Cindy Sheehan and the RJC has set the table for an appeal for funds. For itself, not for Lieberman.

Mercy, what a transformation for the RJC from tormentor to tormented. During the past six years, as the National Jewish Democratic Council helpfully pointed out on the heels of the RJC appeal. Since 2000, the RJC has criticized Lieberman and questioned how an observant, devout Jew could associate himself the national Democrats. They took the Orthodox Lieberman to task for changing his position on moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv after he was nominated for vice-president in 2000. The RJC even took the unusual step of whacking Lieberman around in a full page ad in the NY Times during that campaign.

More recently, Lieberman and the RJC have gone a couple of rounds over the organization’s proposed use of Lieberman quotes in ads criticizing Howard Dean’s leadership of the DNC.

All that is forgiven and mostly forgotten in the past hectic 9 days in Lieberman land. Once untouchable in Connecticut politics now finds himself as both whipping boy and rally point for people who were once his friends and others who were his detractors. There are enough role reversals to cast several French farces with 11 weeks to go. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

A footnote: the latest Quinnipiac poll of CT voters has Lieberman polling 53% to Lamont's 41%. Alan Schlesinger gets four percent percent. Lieberman's strength comes from -- you guessed it -- independents and Republicans.

FL 13 GOPer Tramm Hudson released the following statement with regards to the video posted to Redstate.com today:

“I said something stupid. I apologize for it and would apologize in person to anyone hurt by my comments. To those who are understandably offended, you have my deepest apologies and I want you to know that it was out of character for me and those who know me know that to be a fact. This was a thoughtless remark that does not reflect my lifetime commitment to treating everyone fairly and without bias. I apologize to everyone who is offended by this comment.”

Rep. Katherine Harris’ campaign against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida isn’t guaranteed yet. She does have at least a few candidates running against her in the September 5th primary, including atty Will McBride.

McBride currently trails Harris by 19 points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll, or 17 points, according to a St. Petersburg Times poll. Now think back to early August, 2002, when little-known atty Bill McBride (no relation) trailed former US Attorney General Janet Reno (D) by 19 points in a poll conducted for his own campaign. In the following month, McBride stormed back and beat the supposedly unbeatable Reno. If this year’s race goes similarly, we’ll suggest a new law of Florida politics: Always the McBride, never the bridesmaids. [REID WILSON]

After the break, check out a memo from J.B. Poersch, the DSCC's executive director. It starts with an account of alleged fraud committed by Sen. Rick Santorum's campaign and ends with a plea or sorts not to believe the latest (tightening?) polls.

Tramm Hudson, a GOPer who wants to replace Rep. Katherine Harris in FL's 13th congressional district, said this:

"I grew up In Alabama, and I understand, and I know this from my experience, but blacks are not the greatest swimmers or may not even know to swim."

Redstate's Erick Erickson has the video.

Here's the latest Bush contrast ad from a Democratic candidate.

It's a spot for Gov. Jim Doyle of WI.

The tagline:

"92 percent of the time, Mark Green stands with George Bush. Don't you want a Governor who stands with you?"

It's the reason why President Bush's job-approval ratings haven't risen out of the 30s, even in a week when he and his chief global ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, helped thwart another Sept. 11.

Disenchantment with Iraq is ingrained into the public's collective fabric, and no amount of patriotism -- short of Iraqis actually greeting U.S. troops with flowers -- is going to change things.

Clearly, Republicans running in this environment are letting their Iraq fatigue show publicly. But what's been notable of late is that the GOP's frustration has gotten to the point where they are now uttering Democratic rhetoric.

When voters have a choice between a Republican and a Democrat sounding like a Republican, the Republican is going to win most of the time.

Apply this lesson to '06: Does this mean that if voters have a choice between a Democrat and a Republican who is parroting Democratic talking points on Iraq, the Democrat wins? Now there's the question.

Read On The Trail.

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The situation in the Middle East continued to dominate coverage:

Ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, on the UN resolution: "The United Nations' resolution is a disaster. I think it will not be implemented effectively. We've seen the United Nations force in South Lebanon for over 20 years totally fail to do their job. There's no reason to believe they're going to do it now. ... I think this is a very significant defeat for the United States and for the democracies" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 8/16).

CNN's Sadler: "It seems to be a positive step, that the Lebanese army will deploy to the south in the early hours of tomorrow morning. ... But there are many problems, not least the fact that the cabinet of Lebanon in Beirut today decided to go ahead with this move despite the fact that Hezbollah will retain its weapons and that its fighters will still stay in the area. ... That could make nations thinking about sending troops to south Lebanon think twice" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 8/16).

CRAZY ABOUT CT

And the CT SEN race continues to be the talk of the town.

CT SEN nominee Ned Lamont (D) stopped by "Hardball" last night.

Lamont, on ex-Pres. Clinton coming out in support of him: "I don't think in a heartbeat that Bill Clinton would have invaded Iraq like George Bush did, aided by Joe Lieberman every step of the way. ... I'm proud to have him on this side of the campaign and I think he's right about that."

On the race: "Even if Joe Lieberman leaves the race, it will still be a three-way race, me, Schlesinger and Gold. So it's going to be crowded."

Asked if is the "dove candidate": "Look, I am the guy that says, when it comes to the war in Iraq, it's been a terrible distraction from the war in terror. Us having our troops there is not making the situation better. Only the Iraqis can solve this. It's going to take a political solution" (MSNBC, 8/16).

Unsuccessful '96 VP nominee Jack Kemp (R), on politicizing the Lamont victory: "When an unknown like Lamont takes out a very distinguished Scoop Jackson, John Kennedy, Harry Truman Democrat like Joe Lieberman ... it is politicized."

More: "This is a political season, so let's just recognize it, and deal with it, and try to do it with civility and respect for each other" ("Hannity and Colmes," FNC, 8/16).

BIDEN'S BIG NIGHT

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) also was on "Hardball" last night.

MSNBC's Matthews: "It looks like you're on the presidential trail again."

Biden: "I am. I am."

Matthews: "So you're running for president in 2008?"

Biden: "I am, I am."

Asked where he stands on the CT SEN race: "Well, I stand for the Democratic candidate. Joe is my good friend. I told Joe when I went up there campaigning for them, I want to lead the Democratic Party. I've got to abide by the Democratic Party's ruling."

Asked if he will take "any active role" in getting a Dem elected in CT: "Yes, but I'm not going to take an active role by being against Joe. I'm not going to take an active role by discouraging any of Joe's
friends. I'm going to take an active role in trying to elect the Democrat" (MSBNC, 8/16).

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

In the wake of Ned Lamont's inaugural YouTube campaign and the Macaca video, it's time to discuss what kind of candidacy works on Web video and who should be leaving their camcorder at home. Instead of convincing a viewer for your vote (or at lest remember your name), most web video consultants will say a Web ad should either generate free media, or make a viewer want to forward it on, or solicit donations to the campaign. Creativity is more important than message because a campaign's supporters are always the first to tune in online. Let's look at a few campaigns that use video well for a few different reasons:

PERFORMANCE: Because this candidate is just that charismatic -- well, compared to his or her opponent. Florida Gubernatorial candidate Rod Smith is as energetic as a Baptist preacher and saying all the right things to his Web audience. And because the Web audience has a longer attention span than a campaign usually has dollars for media buys, Smith comes across well in the less-than-two-minutes speech category as well. Lynn Swann for PA Governor is the same way. This guy used to be a sportscaster, so he knows how to make love to the camera, and his screen shots are reminiscent of his famous football career.

And how come nobody has the cojones to ask him?

Well, an Iowa voter (bless 'em!) did, and here's how McCain responded:

“I start by vetoing spending bills. There is just too much pork-barrel spending and we must become fiscally responsible.”

“I would work more closely with our military allies. We need their support in the struggle that is ahead.”

“I would speak every two weeks to the American people. You need to know what is happening — about the war
and the many serious issues we face.”

“I would make sure we don’t torture prisoners. I would close Guantanamo Bay.”

Discuss.

According to a press release from Sen. HillaryClinton's campaign, the "positive ad" thanks "New Yorkers for taking a chance on Hillary" and features "real" New Yorkers "detailing how Senator Clinton helped improve their lives."
It's a 60 second spot airing in upstate and suburban cable markets (and a zillion times for free as part of news stories in NYC.)

Howard Wolfson, Clinton's chief political adviser and spokesman, will probably roll his eyes at our analysis, but here goes:

The ad features doubters who were converted by Clinton's tenacity and solid service as a Senator. It mentions -- no, it highlights -- 9/11 (twice) and military bases. A former major general gives his testimonial.

Knowing how much national free media this ad will get, let us propose that it's a preview of the argument Clinton might one day make to wary Democratic primary voters and "unsure" suburbanites across the country. You think you know her. New Yorkers were worried, too, but they gave it a shot and look how great she turned out.

In any event, it ain’t an ad that a normal incumbent with her poll numbers would run.

The ad was produced by longtime Clinton consultant Mandy Grunwald.

Following is the text of the ad:

Senator Clinton (voiceover): I’m Hillary Clinton and I approved this message. Print on Screen: Standing Up For New York William Duffy, Sr., President & Business Manager, Local 138, International Union of Operating Engineers, Manorville, NY: I didn’t know what to expect. Geri Barish, President, One in Nine: The Long Island Breast Cancer Action Coalition, Baldwin, NY: I was very unsure. Senator Clinton: New Yorkers took a chance on me in 2000 and I have worked hard every single day to deserve that chance. Voiceover: Standing Up For New York after 9/11. Print on Screen: Standing Up: $20 Billion For New York After 9/11. Capt. Peter Gorman, President, Uniformed Fire Officers Association: Senator Clinton has been there for firefighters pre- and post-9/11. Voiceover: Standing up to save our military bases. Print on Screen: Standing Up: Saving New York Military Bases. Maj. Gen. Thomas P. Maguire, ANG (Ret.), Fmr. Adjutant General of New York: The Senator’s contributions are yeoman, they’re beyond yeoman. That base is open today because of the contributions the Senator made. Voiceover: Standing up for jobs all across the state. Print on screen: Standing Up For New York Jobs. Brian Hammond, Waddington, NY: What she’s done is she’s actually brought some life to our economy up here. Voiceover: Standing up for children’s health care. Print on screen: Standing Up: $1 Billion for New York’s Children’s Health Care. Senator Clinton: Once in a while we can really make a difference and help one child or one family. Joseph Ward, Lisbon, NY: Joel was diagnosed with adrenoleukodystrophy. I think we got in touch with the one person that really made a difference. We got a call from Senator Clinton’s office, saying that the hospital would absorb the cost of the bone marrow transplant. How do you thank someone for saving your child’s life? Senator Clinton (voiceover): I’m Hillary Clinton and I approved this message.

What does Macaca really mean? Three Virginia Republicans confirmed to the Hotline that several Allen campaign aides and advisers are telling allies that the word was a made-up, off-the-cuff neologism that these aides occasionally used to refer to tracker S.R. Sidarth well before last Saturday's videotaped encounter.

According to two Republicans who heard the word used, "macaca" was a mash-up of "Mohawk," referring to Sidarth's distinctive hair, and "caca," Spanish slang for excrement, or "shit."

Said one Republican close to the campaign: "In other words, he was a shit-head, an annoyance." Allen, according to Republicans, heard members of his traveling entourage and Virginia Republicans use the phrase and picked it up.
It was the first word that came to his mind when he spied Sidarth at the weekend's event, according to Republicans who have been briefed on Allen's version of the event.

Opponents of Allen have said that Sidarth's hair was clearly styled as a mullet rather than as a Mohawk. Republicans are sending around a post by Chad Dotson, a Virginia prosecutor who blogs as "Commonwealth Conservative," which contains a photograph of Sidarth at an Allen event. Sidarth's hair appears to be shaved on the side and thick strands stretch over the top of his head from his neck to his temple. (Dotson is a Republican and unabashed Allen supporter.)

John Reid, Allen's Senate communications director, said in a statement: "I don't think George Allen would ever try to publicly embarrass or demean a young person even if that person was working on an opposing campaign. The Senator has apologized sincerely and repeatedly over the last two days to the young man and to the public in general. He has been speaking with members of Virginia's Indian Community to reiterate that apology and assure them he did not mean to be derogatory. At some point I don't know what else can be said. I am hopeful that everyone who has heard about this has also heard the Senator's apology."

Kristian Denny Todd, communications director for James Webb, said the new explanation rings hollow. "I don't know what's worse; calling this innocent 20-year-old a "shit head" or a racist slur that was debatable that it wasn't," she said. "This is a kid that had done George Allen no harm. The term was used to demean him. That's the bottom line." Todd said Webb "just wants to get beyond all this" and focus on issues.
[JONATHAN MARTIN AND MARC AMBINDER]

Later today, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) will e-mail his 3M-strong list today to raise money for three Dem Senate candidates: Ned Lamont (CT), Daniel Akaka (HI) and Bob Menendez (NJ).

The e-mail is entitled "These Candidates Are Working To Stop Bush's Aimless Course In Iraq." Kerry urges the list to "Reward Their Courage" and "Pull Them Through To Victory." Kerry, in the e-mail: "We say America needs candidates who take strong positions and have the courage of their convictions. We've got them. We're searching for leaders who understand that we can't change George Bush and Don Rumsfeld's aimless course in Iraq if we don't stand up in this fall's campaign and demand change. These leaders are standing right in front of us."

More Kerry: "Despite the “warnings” coming from consultants, political pundits and naysayers in Washington, each of these candidates is making the mess in Iraq a central issue in their campaigns for the Senate. They aren't afraid to talk about why the war is wrong and what must be done to change course and start doing what is best for our troops and our country. And they aren't afraid to stand up for a better way that will bring our heroes home and put Iraq in Iraqis' hands."

Ex-Sen. John Edwards was the first '08er to call Ned Lamont after his primary victory, and Lamont's rewarding the attention by giving Edwards the first shot at campaigning with him.

Tomorrow evening, Edwards will attend a joint rally for Lamont and Dem GOV nominee John DeStefano.

Leaders from the uber-powerful health care and service union, SEIU's local 1199, will also attend. Recall that SEIU has spent eight years trying to organize about 1,800 workers at Yale-New Haven Hospital. In '03, several unions and locals went on strike at Yale for a grab-bag of causes, including a wage increase for workers and the right for grad students to organize.

It may be August but politics is never on vacation:

CNN's Henry: "Day two of President Bush's summer war on terror tour, five hours at the secretive National Counterterrorism Center -- message: It's a dangerous world this August, and I'm not on vacation" ("AC 360," 8/15).

MSNBC's Shuster: "For the second straight day since returning from vacation, President Bush tried to boost his political standing by keeping the focus on homeland security" ("Hardball," 8/15).

CNN's Bash: "Even before the latest terror plots stirred this round of political jockeying, Democrats were trying a new tactic for 2006. Don't run from Republicans on national security. Take them on. Top Democrats say the key to a winning strategy on national security this year is not just retaliating against GOP attacks. They insist 2006 is fundamentally different from 2002 and 2004, because opposition to the Iraq war is now at an all-time high. Trust in the president has slipped, and Democrats insist Republicans will take the blame" ("AC 360," 8/15).

SUMMER'S HOT SENATE RACES

Sen. George Allen's "macaca" comments got a lot of coverage:

CNN's Koppel, on Allen's statement to CNN: "In Allen's written statement, he also said his remarks about a welcome to America and the real world of Virginia were aimed at his opponent, who Allen said had never been to that part of Virginia. Before Allen ran for governor in 1993, he was criticized by African-Americans for displaying a confederate flag. And Webb's campaign suggested this latest incident could be part of a pattern" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 8/15).

MSNBC's Shuster: "Macaca is a term that can refer to monkeys. Allen says he was making reference to the young man's mohawk haircut. In any case, Allen has now apologized. And with that apology, the Allen campaign is hoping the Virginia Senate race will soon return to a debate over national security. That debate over how to make America safer is now erupting in almost every race as the battle for Congress intensifies" ("Hardball," 8/15).

Chicago Tribune's Zeleny: "Senator Allen, he clearly was focusing on the audience before him. Perhaps what he was forgetting was the broader audience, including these voters in Northern Virginia, where immigration is huge" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/15).

CT SEN candidate Alan Schlesinger (R) was on "Hardball."

Asked if he's been banned from casinos: "To be honest with you, some casinos have said, yes, we love your play. Some casinos have said, no, we don't like your play."

MSNBC's Matthews: "So they banned you?"

Schlesinger: "No."

Matthews: "What do they mean they don't like your play?"

Schlesinger: "They say they prefer that I don't play because of my skill level."

Matthews: "Do they tell you to leave?"

Schlesinger: "Oh, a couple of times in casinos they've asked me to leave."

Asked about past gambling debts: "I think it was $10,000."

Asked if he has an addiction: "No, I do not. I think I've played once this year." More: "I never had a problem. I just enjoy it recreationally."

Asked about GOP support: "I'm not going to allow Washington and the media to hijack this race and turn it into a national referendum on the Democratic future, the Democrat Party's future."

NV SEN candidate Jack Carter (D) was also on "Hardball."

Carter: "Contrary to what a lot of your other people have been saying, I think that this election is about bringing America together and I think that the partisan politics is something that has been working against us for a long time."

More: "If I had been in there, I probably would not have voted to go into Iraq" (MSNBC, 8/15).

And FNC's Cameron profiled the RI SEN race: "Chafee's situation is unique in America. Every other vulnerable Republican is a conservative Bush backer. And while Chafee's out of step with that, it works well here in Democratic leaning Rhode Island. Yet, the anti-incumbent mood may still see him ousted anyway" ("Special Report," 8/15). [EMILY GOODIN]

Updated: 7: 06am ET

Sec/State Results | Las Vegas Review Journal | KLAS TV | Jon Ralston

It's over in NV. GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons and Democratic tate Sen. Dina Titus have secured their party nominations. Neither was the preferred candidate of their respective party's establishment but both won their primaries handily.

Gibbons needs to win over retiring GOP Gov. Kenny Guinn, while Titus needs to prove to the Vegas community she's not too liberal. How both go about reaching out over the next few weeks will tell us if this will be a nailbiter or whether Gibbons starts pulling away.

In the open NV 02 GOP primary, with 100% of precincts reporting, moderate Dean Heller is clinging to a a 428 vote lead over Club for Growth endorsed Sharron Angle.

Also of note, deceased GOP Treas. candidate Kathy Augustine trailed, but garnered a strong 19% of the vote, despite signs at every precinct reminding voters Augustine was a deceased candidate.

In an interview with Iowa's other journalism dean, AP's Mike Glover, John McCain said there is "lingering resentment" among some GOPers because of his primary fight with George W. Bush in '00. McCain goes on to tell Glover that those "feelings may complicate his decision" whether to run in '08. McCain: "If I run, and we'll decide that early next year, there's a lot of work to do. Here in Iowa there are parts of the party where there's still lingering resentment over the bitterness of the 2000 race."

Here is a statement Sen. George Allen (R-VA) provided to CNN:

“I’m concerned that my comments at Breaks Interstate Park on August 11th have been greatly misunderstood by members of the media.

“In singling out the Webb campaign’s cameraman, I was trying to make the point that Jim Webb had never been to that part of Virginia – and I encouraged him to bring the tape back to Jim and welcome him to the real world of Virginia and America, outside the Beltway, where he has rarely visited. I also made up a nickname for the cameraman, which was in no way intended to be racially derogatory. Any insinuations to the contrary are completely false.

“Yesterday, I apologized to anyone who may have offended by the misinterpretation of my remarks. That was certainly not my intent. On every stop on my Listening Tour – I have talked about one of my missions for this country – to make it a land of opportunity for all. I have worked very hard in the Senate to reach out to all Americans - regardless of their race, religion, ethnicity or gender. And I look forward to continuing to advocate this important mission for America’s future.

“I never want to embarrass or demean anyone and I apologize if my comments offended this young man. Even though he has signed onto my opponent’s campaign, I look forward to seeing him on the trail ahead.

Nevada's GOV hopefuls were busy working the phones Monday, trying to lock up undecideds in what has been a contentious open seat race. Perhaps confident in her chances in the Dem primary, state Sen. Dina Titus also found time to call a staffer for LG hopeful Bob Unger (D), who happened to be at the headquarters for opposing Dem Jim Gibson. In a voice mail, obtained by the Hotline, Titus tells the staffer that she's "very disturbed by that," since Unger was "supposed to be neutral and I think will be on the ticket with me after tomorrow." Titus goes on to say: "I'll be speaking to Bob about this, and you can be assured that I'm not happy. So it's a bad choice that you have made."

Asked to comment, Titus spokesperson Jennifer Knight said: "Dina already called and apologized for leaving the message on a voice mail that conveyed the wrong tone." Meanwhile Adam Candee, spokesperson for Gibson's camp, said the incident shows Titus "is unstable and of questionable character, taking time the night before the election to personally threaten a 21-year-old girl." With voting already underway and thousands of ballots cast through early voting, it's unlikely that any of this will have much impact on today's outcome. But Rep. Jim Gibbons, the likely GOP nominee, may find it useful as the general election campaign begns. [MIKE MEMOLI]

The DSCC has reserved over $1.64M in the Phoenix and Tucson TV markets over the final 4 weeks in AZ SEN.

www.redstate.org

Lieberman's campaign is not behind this.

So who is?

Update: whoops. We fell for it. It's a link to a poll on Newsmax. So, uh, nevermind.

Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA 08) is one of the first GOPers to publicly and sharply criticize Pres. Bush's handling of the Iraq war. In a mailer sent to Bucks County voters, Fitzpatrick called the admin's "stay the course" strategy "extreme" while also criticizing Iraq war vet Patrick Murphy's (D) "cut and run" proposals.
-- While several members (Gil Gutknecht, Jo Ann Davis) have criticized the president's handling of Iraq, Fitzpatrick went one step further. The mailer's headline, "America Needs a Better, Smarter Plan in Iraq," could come straight from the DCCC. His comments will likely provide Dems ammo against more steadfast supporters of Bush on Iraq.

-- In '02 and 04, the GOP controlled the debate on Iraq. But Fitzpatrick's mailer suggests the tide has changed. The war polls poorly throughout the Northeast, making it likely other vulnerable GOPers in that region will soon follow Fitzpatrick's lead. Meanwhile, Dems seem more unified on Iraq than they've been in a while.

-- GOPers hope to make nat'l security a central issue this fall, but will defections in their ranks make that task harder?[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Florida CFO Tom Gallagher (R), with help from his new media team, is on the air with a new contrast ad painting himself as to the right of AG Charlie Crist (R) on issues dear to cultural conservatives. Gallagher also seeks to pull at FL GOP heartstrings by tying himself to the Jeb Bush legacy and closing with a picture to drive home the message.

Gallagher has also updated his website to prominently display a side-by-side listing of those hot-button issues where he and Crist differ.

Not for nothing...

But by the end of today, the three past chairs of the Democratic Leadership Council -- Sen. Joe Lieberman, Sen. Evan Bayh and Gov. Tom Vilsack -- will all have attended events hosted by organized labor's anti-Wal Mart campaigns.

Bayh takes the plunge today in Cedar Rapids, IA, where he signs Wake Up Wal-Mart's "Better America Pledge."

Thursday, we hear that Sen. John McCain will headline a private fundraiser for SC Adjutant General Stan Spears at the Columbia Chamber of Commerce Building.

There's no word on whether this means Spears will support McCain's presidential campaign. In '00, he headed George W. Bush's veterans outreach in SC.

The death-knell for Republican candidates in Northern Virginia has been the active hostility of the Washington Post. Usually, a GOP candidate can neutralize the problem by neutralizing the Post -- not alienating the beat reporters and keeping the editorial page from beating the snare drum.

Two signs today that the Allen campaign has seriously angered the Post. First, there's the A1 placement of a story that is arguably interesting and compelling but not earthshatteringly newsy. Within the story, there's a hint that Allen's campaign manager, Dick Wadhams zoinked off the reporter who called him.

"But the apology, which came hours after Allen's campaign manager dismissed the issue with an expletive and insisted the senator has "nothing to apologize for," did little to mollify Webb's campaign or Sidarth..."

The second harbinger is the Post editorial entitled George Allen's America.

The Post is ganging up on George Allen. Certainly, a videotaped alleged slur from a candidate is more relevant than an alleged anti-semitic flyer from another, but the disparity in attention is so wide as to suggest that a media framing device is at work. It's not necessarily a political bias; it's a conflict bias; it's a bias against complacency; it's a bias toward Northern Virginia and its values.

The upshot here is that Jim Webb (D) is a free media candidate. He'll never raise enough money to properly introduce himself to Virginia voters. His campaign's strategic goal is to drive up Allen's negatives and then, when everyone is paying attention in October, allow the currents in the media to carry Webb to the shore.

More importantly, George Allen is a presidential candidate. Fairly or unfairly, he's never been portrayed as a paragon of racial sensitivity, and the Post, having been scooped by the indomitable Ryan Lizza on Allen's confederate flag lapel pin, will not let Allen escape this race without a full presidential-level press vet.

A side note to the story: The Post writes that "In some European cultures, macaca is also considered a racial slur against African immigrants, according to several Web sites that track ethnic slurs." The Post doesn't mention that Allen's mother was Franco-Tunisian and Allen speaks French.

Wadhams, in a phone interview, suggests the battle lines are drawn and quartered. "The Post took a pass on the anti-Semitic flyer that Webb made and in fact the editorial writer for the Post told me yesterday there was nothing anti-Semitic about that flyer. It was premeditated and Webb even admitted looking at and approving that before it went out. They did not write a peep about that incident," he said. "There is an institutional bias against Senator Allen at the Washington Post. It is probably even more pronounced now because he keeps winning and they keep opposing them. This was something I anticipated from the very beginning. They're in Webb’s hip pocket. It’s going to be a reality we face in this campaign."

Wadhams pointed out that he is familiar with "hostile" media. The Denver Post "might have well have operated their printing press out of the Tim Strickland headquarters," he says of Sen. Wayne Allard's 2002 race. And "The [Sioux Falls] Argus Leader was [for Tom Daschle]," he says of John Thune's campaign.

"We have beat those guys every time and we’re going to beat them this time."

Wadhams' antagonists chronicled the '02 race here; we wonder how and whether Allen will bypass the filter this time. BTW: The Post backed Webb's opponent, Harris Miller, in the primary. And they're not on board with Webb's economic populism.
[MARC AMBINDER]

The situation in the Middle East -- both the cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon and the war in Iraq -- dominated cable talk. But there's starting to be more analysis of how this will effect the '06 election.

CNN's Malveaux: "What we heard is President Bush saying the lesson of last week is that this war on terror is fully engaged, and he is using the foiled attacks of last week, as well as ... this cease-fire, to illustrate a couple things. First, that he believes that there's still a threat against Americans, and secondly, that he is justifying the war on terror, trying ... not to lose support here ... as those midterm elections approach" ("Situation Room," 8/14).

MSNBC's Shuster: "The problem for Republicans it that a growing majority of Americans want the U.S. to start getting out of Iraq and despite Bush administration arguments that Iraq and the war on terror are linked, voters increasingly see the two wars as separate. It all spells big trouble for the GOP. 85 days until the congressional mid terms" ("Hardball," 8/14).

CNN's Greenfield: "There is no doubt what the Republican game plan for November is. It's to paint the Democrats as the party of retreat, unwilling or unable to face the hard reality of what it means to fight America's enemies. That game plan was effective two years ago and four years ago. What about this time? ... A number of Republicans have openly broken with the administration on the war. ... The party will also face an electorate that, if the polls are right, is more likely to see Iraq as a distraction from, not an essential part of, the war on terror" ("Situation Room," 8/14).

FNC's O'Reilly, in his "Talking Points" memo: "I want fresh ideas on how to defeat terror. And if a Democrat has a good idea, I'll put it on this broadcast in a heartbeat. But so far, it is just Bush is bad, Bush is trying to scare us. You know what? Not having a plan after all this time is really the scary thing, is it not?" ("O'Reilly Factor," 8/14).

AND LOOKING AT '08

FNC's Garrett examined Gov. Bill Richardson's (D-NM) re-election bid and asked him about WH '08. Richardson: "I haven't made that decision. You know, it's a decision that you have to make after all the decks are clear and a major deck that I need to clear is my own re-election as governor of New Mexico" ("Special Report," 8/14).

STILL WAITING FOR NEWS

FNC provided a few updates throughout the evening on kidnapped reporter Steve Centanni and cameraman Olaf Wiig. FNC's Griffin: "We've been reporting today that two of our colleagues were kidnapped in Gaza earlier today. They were taken against their will from the vehicle they were driving in. Fox News at this time is doing everything within its power to get them safely returned back home, and we will report more on that as we have details" ("On the Record," 8/14). [EMILY GOODIN]

Less than a week after dodging dropout rumors, FL GOV GOP underdog Tom Gallagher has switched media consultants, parting amicably with the current media consultant of choice on the GOP side for SEN and GOV races, Scotty Howell, and recruiting the dominant GOP media consultant of the '90s, Mike Murphy. Murphy most recently retired (sort of) from campaign political consulting to focus on a few Hollywood projects. Murphy helped steer Jeb Bush's successful FL GOV bids in '98 and '02 and had planned to stay out of FL GOV this cycle.

According to Gannett's Deslatte, the new Gallagher ads (which will be made by Matt Leonardo, who has teamed with Murphy in the past) are expected to highlight Charlie Crist's more moderate positions, as they compare to Gallagher. Most polls have shown Gallagher trailing badly with just 3 weeks to go before primary day.

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

1. Gov. Ted Kulongoski's campaign is out with new guerilla-style Welcome video. More interesting is their second addition, "Interns for Ted" -- not that the shaky camera angle isn't cool, but because they are advertising free beer at the event.

2. And here are some more video bytes for the road: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is out with his second Web Ad on Phil Angelides called "Tax Man." Ben Cardin's Senate campaign knows it's good to be "Alive." In the race to politicize the war on terror, DSCC is out with the Web Ad, "Secure." For more, check out Web AD-dict.

3. Time magazine is out with its annual collection of the 50 Coolest sites Web sites. Some notables from the "News and Information" category: Tailrank.com, which claims to find the best of the blogs (although we prefer Blogometer), and In The Hot Zone, on which veteran war correspondent Kevin Sites covers "every armed conflict" in the world for a year.

S.R. Sidarth, a video tracker for Jim Webb's Senate campaign in Virginia, wears his hair sort of mohawk-y, although not really.

Whether that led Sen. George Allen (R-VA) to call him "Macaca" and "welcome" him to "America"...

Well, the Washington Post seems skeptical.

Watch for yourself.

BTW: Dick Wadhams, Allen's campaign manager, "went on the offensive," according to the Post, "

accusing Webb of having sent out an anti-Semitic flyer during his primary campaign earlier this year. The flyer, which contained a caricature of Webb's Jewish opponent, drew some criticism at the time. "He had prior knowledge of it and has never apologized for it," Wadhams said.

Webb's campaign calls the charge a distraction.

We're sure that many Democratic and Republican communications professionals wonder whether journalists who cover (or ignore) their beautifully-drafted press releases can craft one of their own.

This morning, Hotsoup editor-in-chief Ron Fournier, formerly the Associated Press's principle political correspondent, put fingers to keyboard::

Dear HOTSOUP Colleague,

Thanks for joining.

We’re off to a fast start. Thousands of people like you, including a few dozen political, business and pop culture leaders, have signed up for our issues-based community that launches in October.

Today begins a series of announcements about some of those Opinion Drivers who are “In the Soup.”
We’re proud to announce that Senator John McCain, seven-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong, Applebee’s International Chairman & CEO Lloyd Hill, Leadership Network founder Bob Buford, and stay-at-home mother/political activist Mary Shull are the first group being featured in a HOTSOUP.com news release today.
Each of these Opinion Drivers responded to the question, “ Why are people hungry for an issues-based community of Opinion Drivers like HOTSOUP.com?” You can see their responses in full, along with the press release, at www.HOTSOUP.com.

You’ll also notice a new poll. We can’t get enough of your opinions.

Please invite your friends, family and co-workers to join us “In the Soup,’’ and stay tuned for more news.
Best,
Ron Fournier

Ok, so the gist of an organized Democratic response to the terror threat was to get its candidates on a conference call with Rand Beers, but....

Here are four items that lead us to suggest that Republicans are playing on Democratic turf on national security and Iraq, and maybe not the other way 'round:

1. Just this morning, the GOP's Research department limned the difference between the two parties as follows: "Adapt To Win v. Cut and Run."

Yes, the new GOP message on Iraq is "Adapt to Wiin." A pretty good case can be made that "Adapt to Win" is the philosophy undergridding the Levin-Reed amendment in the Senate and the letters that Democrats have recently sent to President Bush.

2. Which party tends to say things like this? "Achieving victory in the Global War on Terror requires multiple tactics and approaches -- local, state, and federal law enforcement, America's diplomatic corps, and the United States Armed Forces all play a role in combating terrorism in a post-9/11 world." That’s a familiar Rand Beers / Democratic refrain. The Democrats. Which party said it today?

3. A Republican congresswoman from a conservative district in Virginia wants Rumsfeld to resign. Maybe. Maybe not.

4. As the Hotline spotlight pointed out today, the tag line in a mail piece sent out by Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA): "Fitzpatrick says NO to both extremes: No to President Bush's 'Stay the Course' strategy and no to Patrick Murphy's 'Cut and Run' approach."

It's a slow August day in politics, but If you're in the weeds of a competitive House, Senate or gubernatorial campaign, chances are you saw or heard a new campaign ad over the weekend.

Here's a brief round up:

In RI, Sen. Lincoln Chafee blasts Republican challenger Steve Laffey in a harsh new character contrast ad. The female narrator asks Rhode Islanders if they want Chafee speaking for them in the Senate, pointing to his "taunting of firefighters who disagreed with his policies" (yes -- there's video). The ad also points out that Laffey raised taxes (and "mocked" someone who criticized him for it). And it notes that Laffey said that seniors who didn't support his campaign were older and "dying." The tag line: "Steve Laffey. The wrong voice for Rhode Island in the Senate."

NM: Barbara Richardson appears in a NM GOV ad on behalf of her husband, NM Gov. Bill Richardson. The script: "I'm Barbara Richardson. I want to talk with you about two issues my husband is working on that mean a great deal to me. The first is child immunizations. In just two years, New Mexico has moved up from 49th to 15th in the nation. And Bill has nearly tripled the funding for domestic violence shleters and created a special prosecution team that's reduced case dismissals by 35 percent. Whether it's from violence or illness, we believe that every family deserves to feel safe."

It's millionaire candidate v. millionaire candidate in Nebraska. Here's GOP challenger Pete Ricketts's latest ad against Sen. Ben Nelson (D): "Narrator: $145 million tax dollars: Nebraska's cost for (Sen.) Ben Nelson's (D) bad faith tactics over nuclear waste compact. A federal judge said: 'I cannot conceive of a stronger case of bad faith,' citing Nelson's politically tainted actions of subterfuge and evasions. Nelson's tactics continue, attacking Pete Ricketts' home-valuation challenge. But Nelson did the exact same thing, challenging his own home valuations in Omaha and Washington, DC four times. Ben Nelson's same old bad faith tactics continue." RICKETTS: "I'm Pete Ricketts. I approve this message."

CO: GOV candidate Bill Ritter's second radio ad focuses on what he calls "Colorado's promise."

WI: ad an highlights the Doyle-Lawton ticket's "history of fiscal responsbility."

In the 1990s, liberals worried that conservatives had hijacked the initiative and referenda processes in states; activists found ingenious ways to harness popular passions (and prejudices) and starve the beast of government at the local level.

But a broad look at the I and R landscape for '06 suggests that the left is fighting back.

Here are some questions that November's statewide elections might help answer:

Do pro-lifers favor a total abortion ban? -- In South Dakota, pro-choicers gambled. Gov. Mike Rounds (R) signed a bill that would ban all abortions except when the life of the mother is at stake. Instead of letting the legislation meander its way to the Supreme Court, opponents forced proponents of the ban to show their cards. They petitioned the ban onto the November ballot, and polls show that a strong plurality of South Dakotans would oppose it in its current form. (59% would favor a prohibition with rape and incest exceptions added in.) The courts will still have their say, but if the pro-choicers succeed in a culturally conservative state, it could

Can Democrats use stem cells as a wedge issue? In Missouri, the language of an embryonic stem cell research initiative has become a point of debate in the Senate race, and Democrats are trying to use it as a wedge to separate suburbanites from the conservative coalition. It's working in one sense: Republicans from the conservative governor on down are in favor of the initiative, which amends the state constitution to specifically permit embyonic stem cell research. Though even Republican strategists deny that the '04 gay marriage amendments lifted turnout in competitive states, Democrats are convinced that they surrendered the cultural values territory to Republicans by not marshaling their resources to get D-friendly initiatives on the ballot. One second-order goal for Democrats: paint opposition to the research as extreme and force pro-life candidates to go out of their way to prove their bona fides to pro-life interest groups. Republicans have used the same tactic to tar Democrats who have reservations about same-sex marriage but don't oppose domestic partnerships or civil unions. Here's the problem for Dems: it's a midterm. The base turns out; independent and marginal voters don't. Will enough suburban women come to the polls to offset pro-lifers who we know will vote?

Will minimum wage increase initiatives spike Dem turnout? Minimum wage hikes are on the ballot in CA, OK, MO, AZ, CO, MT, NV and OH.

Will the landowners of the country unite? Keying off the SCOTUS ruling in Kelo, eminent domain initiatives could make the ballot in a half dozen states. They'd protect landowners from unfair takings (to a degree) and ensure remuneration for the land-loss. Liberals worry that these initiatives amount to nothing more than the fuel for more urban sprawl.

Are voters becoming less tax-averse? There are trendlines -- Virginia voters wildly approved of a tax-hiking governor; Colordans voted (narrowly) to allow their government some flexibility within the confines of its pioneering taxpayer bill of rights' law. (TABOR). In WA, voters axed a gas tax repeal. That said, voters across the small government West oppose anything that smacks of a tax increase and have roundly rejected measures that increase the size of government, like initiatives requiring universal health insurance.

According to the left-leaning Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, pro-TABOR amendments have been placed on the ballot in Maine, Oklahoma and Ohio (although Ohio's is watered down). And there's a "high probability" that TABOR inits will get on the ballot in MI, MO, NV, OR, MT and WI. Main backers include Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform and FreedomWorks (formerly Citizens for a Sound Economy).

The effect of these initiatives would give special rights to big landowners and developers, whose demands for compensation would not be able to be met by local governments, and can use the new law to remove all barriers to growth, resulting in massive sprawl. This issue is moving in California, Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington.

A side note: same-sex marriage bans are possible in at least ten states including VA, CO and WI. In CO, a separate initiative would legalize domestic partnerships. [MARC AMBINDER]

Is GOP Rep. Jo Ann Davis (VA) the first Republican member of Congress to call for the resignation of Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld? We'll double-check that for Monday's edition. Regardless, any Rumsfeld resignation call from a Republican member of Congress from a military-heavy district is going to get serious attention.

Davis' main beef with Rumsfeld is that he didn't send enough troops to Iraq.

From the Hampton Roads Daily Press story, Davis: "Maybe he was the right one when the war started. [But] I think if he had listened to Gen. (Eric) Shinseki in the beginning -- I think Gen. Shinseki has been proven right. His argument with Secretary Rumsfeld was that we needed to have more troops, and he's right in my opinion."

WHAT'S BREWING

Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT)'s campaign sent out an In Case You Missed It, touting the fact that Vermont had the smallest percentage of uninsured children in the nation.

That's an impressive accomplishment.

But credit for Vermont's pioneering insurance system, called Dr. Dynasaur, goes to current DNC chairman and ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean, who, beginning in 1992, expanded the program (which was actually signed into law by ex-VT Gov. Madeline Kunin.)

KY Gov. Ernie Fletcher can't be prosecuted for his alleged role in a hiring scandal that rocked state government in the state until he leaves office. Judge David Melcher, according to the AP, "essentially stayed the case until Mr. Fletcher's term expires, or unless he is removed through impeachment by the legislature."

Fletcher was indicted early this summer on charges he participated in an illegal patronage scheme. Fletcher has said he believes the charges are politically motivated and that he is innocent.

Called Unity, it will run through early next week and possibly longer. All the major network affiliates in CT will share in the buy. The ad was produced by Carter Eskew before he left the campaign.

Here's the script:

This week we had round one of the U.S. Senate race. Now round two begins. I want to thank my supporters and explain to all you why I've decided to fight on. I'm staying in this race because I want to keep working for the things that matter to you. I've led the Senate on issues like national security the creation of the 9/11 commission; efforts to stop global warming; protect social security and find cures for diseases like cancer and diabetes. And I'm staying because I want to help end the war in Iraq in a way that brings stability to the Mid-East and doesn't leave us even more vulnerable. So much needs to be done, but so little is actually getting done in Washington because our politics have become so partisan and polarized. My 30 years of experience has been about bringing people together. I'm Joe Lieberman. And I approved this message because it's time for a new politics of unity and purpose.

Sen. Joe Lieberman's primary loss carries conflicting implications for three CT House races crucial to Dem hopes this fall. On one hand, it indicates the Dem base is motivated, and that's not a good sign for the state's 3 GOP incumbents. The culturally liberal, affluent towns where Ned Lamont performed best and turned out high numbers of voters are primarily located in the Dems' three targeted CDs. These same areas traditionally have voted for GOPers in cong. races. If anti-war Dems again turn out in large numbers, that dynamic could change.

On the other hand, Lieberman's concession speech message of bipartisanship will be a theme Reps. Rob Simmons, Chris Shays and Nancy Johnson will be invoking often during the campaign. Shays, who endorsed Lieberman last month, largely agrees with his hawkish positions on national security. Simmons will benefit whenever Lieberman talks about saving Groton's naval base -- accomplished by the entire CT delegation. But will a bipartisan message resonate in a state where anti-Bush and anti-incumbent sentiment is so high? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Our man on the CT scene, Hartford Courant columnist Kevin Rennie files this report:

Sen. Joe Lieberman begins his fightback on the air tonight. Lieberman’s campaign has purchased $100,000 in airtime on Connecticut television stations to begin airing his first ad since losing the Democratic primary on Tuesday.

Ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) interprets the Lamont victory:

I congratulate Ned Lamont on a great grassroots campaign, and wish him success in November. I and our PAC, Forward Together, will be supporting the Lamont campaign. Connecticut Democrats are mirroring the frustrations most Americans feel with this President’s failed foreign policy and mishandled war. I also commend Senator Lieberman for his remarkable record of public service.

Republican wishful thinking notwithstanding, Tuesday’s vote was anything but a Democratic party repudiation of a robust and determined defense of this nation’s security. To the contrary, it is a call for a return to an American foreign policy that unites our friends and divides our enemies—and a call that will inevitably sweep through November’s elections.

And we hear that Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) will campaign for Lamont in CT on 8/17.

HotlineTV brings the best of political journalism to life, as editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio duke it out over the week’s hottest political stories.

It's the no-holds-barred commentary you expect only from The Hotline, now in living color.

Visit us every Friday for new episodes with the two sharpest wits on the Washington political scene, or subscribe to our video podcast in iTunes.

In this week's episode:

It's our last chance to parse CT Sen, and we wonder just what it means for Dems nationally.

It's part two of our mammoth battle for the House special, and we continue with the top ten open seats around the country.

Our last segment on the House checks out the second tier snoozers with the best shot at making a run at tier one. If there's a wave, this is where the action will be.

Are you bored at home? Thinking about running for the White House? Let the Todd-Mercurio travel agency give you the rundown on Iowa and New Hampshire! By the way, you have an expense account? This is where you need to click.

And, of course, the fastest 2 minutes in politics, crazy candidates edition.

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC announced that Henry McMaster, the SC attorney general, will join as a co-chair.

McMaster was appointed by Pres. Reagan to a U.S. Atty's post and has been SC AG since '03. He was the SC GOP's chair from '93-'02.

McCain: "His record of selfless public service and decades of great work for the Republican Party in South Carolina make him a tremendous asset to the PAC's November election efforts."

McMaster: "John has campaigned tirelessly for South Carolina Republicans. His Straight Talk America PAC has made over $170,000 in contributions to South Carolina candidates and party organizations. I'm excited to join his effort to promote and assist our conservative Republican candidates to victory in November"

“If we just pick up like Ned Lamont wants us to do, get out [of Iraq] by a date certain, it will be taken as a tremendous victory by the same people who wanted to blow up these planes in this plot hatched in England,”

Who said that?

Sen. Joe Lieberman.

All of which must concern a moderate incumbent like Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R), who faces a strong challenge in Rhode Island's Sept. 12 primary from the CFG's centerpiece candidate, conservative Steve Laffey, the mayor of Cranston, R.I. Recent polling shows the race is close. Unlike Connecticut, however, the opposition party here (Democrats) fielded a strong, well-financed candidate with no primary rival: Sheldon Whitehouse. The race, still competitive even if Chafee wins, would become a top pick-up target for Democrats this fall if the incumbent stumbles.

For now, Laffey's camp is playing down the importance of other conservatives' victories. "It's not on his plate," said Laffey spokesperson Nachama Soloveichik. "He doesn't sit there and analyze what happens in Michigan and how it affects him." .

Read Politiscope.

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The Club for Growth was a big winner in Tuesday’s House primaries, knocking off a first-term incumbent and winning a tightly-contested primary. The two victories raise their record to 7-2, and boost the stature of Club Pres. Pat Toomey.

Most of their past races have been crowded, open-seat primaries in solidly conservative CDs. In such races, an infusion of cash can make the difference between an also-ran and a front-runner. But this time, they knocked off Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-MI 07), who had more establishment support in the CD. They also provided critical funding to state Sen. Doug Lamborn (R), whose early spending on TV ads helped him edge out ex-Hefley aide Jeff Crank (R).

The two victors last night, though, are known primarily for their social conservatism. Lamborn's allies attacked Crank for supporting the "radical homosexual lobby." And MI 07 victor Tim Walberg (R) is a minister whose non-Club endorsements came primarily from pro-life groups, not business groups. Could the best way to motivate GOP voters be through hot-button social issues, and not over tax and spending cuts? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA) hasn't been the poster-boy of anti-Washington or anti-Republican power, but one might get that impression with this release. Weldon is a Republican, mind you, attacking big oil and attacking the government. Weldon's the incumbent, right? Take a look at the release after the jump. Look for other GOP incumbents to continue this tactic.

It's not too difficult to read the pregnant message in the following statement from House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL). And the bolding is his staff's -- not ours.

"The disruption of this terror scheme follows a number of great successes that America and its allies have had against those looking to do us harm. Today's victory serves as a vivid and shocking reminder that we must always be vigilant in fighting the Global War on Terror. Freedom is never free, and we must never be complacent in defending it."

The news on the London arrests broke early this a.m. so it didn't make last night's TV. All morning shows led with it however. Most of the TV last night remained focused on the Middle East, but there was a fair amount of coverage on the CT SEN race.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Dem candidate Ned Lamont appeared on "NewsHour" in seperate interviews.

Lamont: "I turned the president's methodology on its head. He says, 'We'll stand down as soon as the Iraqis stand up.' I don't think the Iraqis will stand up until we stand down. So let's let them know what our intentions are, and that is, over the course of the next year, we'll be bringing our troops home."

On the role of the blogs: "There are thousands of blogs. Some of them take a look at this race. Some of them support Lamont; some of them support Lieberman. And I think it has been helpful. It's energized debate, gotten people involved, and I think that's good for democracy."

On Lieberman's independent run: "I respect Senator Lieberman. And he's doing, I guess, what he thinks he has to do. I wish he would stay with the Democratic Party. I wish he would abide by the rules of the Democratic primary. But he's elected to go another way. And I know there's an awful lot of his colleagues in Congress and elsewhere who are counseling him to reconsider, but, again, that's a decision the senator will have to make on his own."

Lieberman: "I'm an independent Democratic candidate for senator."

On the party unity rally for Lamont: "I fully expected it. I know most of the elected officials, some of whom are good friends of mine, feel that they have to play by the traditional party rules. ... It puts me in a position I've been in before, and it's one that I like. I'm the challenger, in that sense now running against the establishment. If endorsements were that influential, the result of the primary yesterday would have been different. So this is really all about the voters of Connecticut and their assessment of the three major candidates for Senate in Connecticut and what each of us can do better for their future."

Asked if ex-Pres. Clinton's endorsement didn't help: "Well, I wasn't singling -- look, I was thrilled that he came in. But the fact is, people decide on their own."

Asked what other Dems who voted for the war should learn from this: "I hope it's not a lesson. I hope that people are still prepared to do what they think is right. We're talking about our national security here" (PBS, 8/9).

Lieberman was also on "LKL."

Asked how he keeps from being called a "sore loser": "I don't know who said it, but it doesn't fit and therefore, it doesn't bother me. I mean, look, I defeated my opponent at the Democratic convention. He exercised his right to go on to the primary. He won the primary. I'm exercising my right to run as an independent Democrat" (CNN, 8/9).

Lamont stopped by "Hardball."

On Dem support: "I've talked to a fair number of senators today, starting with Senator Dodd, and the message I hear is clear, that they're standing strongly behind our nomination, and they are going out and they're going to tell fundraisers to support Ned Lamont."

Asked about GOP support for Lieberman: "You've got to ask Karl Rove and George Bush that. But my sense is that Senator Lieberman has gotten an awful lot of Republican support, official Republican support over the years and I think they know that they have a relatively weak candidate on the Republican side of the aisle right now, so maybe some of that support may be steered toward the senator's way" (MSNBC, 8/9).

PUNDITS LOVE THIS TOPIC

FNC's Cameron: "Republicans would love to see Schlesinger win but he's a very long shot. And the national party has told him not to expect too much help. So, for all intents and purposes it remains a Lieberman, Lamont race" ("Special Report," 8/9).

RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, asked about the ABC report that Rove offered to send Bush up to campaign for Lieberman: "I'm not aware of that. I am aware that there's a story on the blogs that I think Mr. Stephanopoulos put up that's inaccurate. But I'm not aware of anything beyond that" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/9).

Newsweek's Fineman: "I think the White House's objective is to keep Lieberman in the race as long as possible. ... They want a Democratic civil war" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/9).

WashingtonPost.com's Cillizza, on bloggers calling for Dems to remove Lieberman from his cmtes: "I hate to say this, because it makes me sound like a cynic, but it doesn't really matter if they take him off the committees or not. Congress is going to meet for about five or 10 days more before the November election. So there's no real practical effect of taking him off the committees. The important thing to watch is, do folks like Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer ... do they tell donors ... we really don't want you to give to Joe? Because that's the question for Lieberman" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/9).

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen, on the '08 effect: "The smart money says it may really in the end help Al Gore. ... Al Gore is the one figure who is strong, a heavyweight who came out early against the war in Iraq, has been consistently against it. ... Al Gore is more closely allied with the MoveOn.org groups, the leftist liberal groups. And he's been a bit of a hawk. As you know, he voted for the first Persian Gulf War, so he could have it in both ways, in effect, as a candidate. He just got this popular movie out. So I would not be surprised if we hear more from Al Gore and more about Al Gore in the next few weeks" ("AC 360," CNN, 8/9). [EMILY GOODIN]

The most recent AP writethru of the CT SEN story includes this report:

One strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Lieberman had about $2 million remaining after the primary race against Lamont.

Come again? Lieberman didn't spend EVERYTHING HE HAD to win the Dem primary?

We bet there are a lot of Senate Dems and nat'l Dems who will not be happy to hear that Lieberman had money left in the bank. Could another $2M in GOTV been the difference between losing 52-48 and winning 52-48? This is NOT going to sit well with many in the Beltway Democratic establishment who wished Lieberman would have won this thing so this distraction could come to an end. And instead, they are in the midst of advising fellow Dems to get behind Lamont and hoping that somehow Lieberman decides to put his (ex?) party before himself. [CHUCK TODD]

UPDATE: Our colleague, Chris "The Fix" Cillizza, notes that it's possible the $2M leftover was general election money and couldn't be used in the primary. For the Lieberman's camp's P.R. in DC, they better hope just about all of that money was legally untouchable in the primary.

Full AP story after the jump:

Two great sites offer detailed analyses of the data from yesterday's CT SEN primary.

Univ of Wisconsin prof Charles Franklin has put together an array of graphs showing where and how Lieberman lost and Lamont won. Look for those posts from 8/9 and be prepared for a data onslaught.

Political cartographer/consultant Ken Strasma has also updated his page with a fantastic town-by-town map shaded to display the strength of the Lieberman/Lamont vote. Check out how strong Lamont was up and down the NY border (where the NYT circulates most)

To prepare for his indie CT SEN run, Joe Lieberman asked for, and received, resignations from his entire primary campaign team (staff and consultants). In addition, Lieberman announced that his longtime state director and political aide, Sherry Brown, would takeover as campaign manager, and his former senate communications dir., Dan Gerstein, would serve in a similar role for the campaign.

The release specifically notes the campaign will be searching for a new pollster and media consultant to replace Stan Greenberg and Carter Eskew, respectively. Greenberg's partner, Al Quinlan, actually served as the principal strategist for Lieberman during the primary. As we previously reported, there has been a quiet search for a new consulting team going on for at least a week. The primary requirement: Democratic ties. The Lieberman camp does not want overt GOP ties on the vendor front.

Lieberman, from the release: “I do not blame my staff for my loss on Tuesday, I bear that responsibility. But now that we are entering a new and very different phase of the campaign, I wanted to bring in a new team. And in Sherry and Dan, I am fortunate to have two people in leadership positions that not only know me well but know Connecticut.”

The search for the elusive swing voter has kept the political consulting world in the money for years. And yet, if the primary electorates are allowed to speak, it appears that DINOs(aurs) and RINOs(aurs) are endangered species. Lieberman and Schwarz are both middle-of-the-roaders within their (former) parties. And both lost for being just that: centrists. How's Lincoln Chafee feeling now? A Chafee defeat to Steve Laffey in the GOP's Rhode Island Senate primary will indeed signal that primary purity is here to stay.

Does this trend also spell trouble for Hillary Clinton or John McCain? Possibly. Of course, Clinton and McCain are now getting fair warning of the volatile climates inside their respective parties, and both are already trying to make nice with their bases.

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The Blogometer:: We distill the essence of the political blogosphere's zeitgeist -- every day.

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1. Potential '08 independent candidate Michael Bloomberg is thoroughly on the side of Joe Lieberman.

2. Ex-Sen. John Edwards gets props for the first call to Ned Lamont last night. And BIG PROPS for Lamont telling reporters, unbidden, that Edwards had called him. (Edwards's staff gets huge props for setting up the call.)

3. Sen. Hillary Clinton tried to call Lamont last night and didn't get through. The two spoke today. Clinton's HillPAC contributed $5000 to Lamont this morning, as did Sen. Barack Obama's HopeFund PAC. And moments before the Dem unity rally, Sen. Russ Feingold had a nice chat with Lamont. Why is Jonathan Tasini blasting Lamont? HRC tomorrow attends a NORPAC fundraiser. Ben Smith tells you why that matters to the Lamont race.

4. BTW: Here's what Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) said this am: "I hope that the voters in this state, Dems and unaffiliated, would see the importance of electing Ned Lamont."

5. RedState's Derek Muller is tracking the response of Dem senators to the Lamont/Lieberman choice.

6. In a WesPAC e-mail, Wes Clark (D) tells supporters: "We cannot let Joe Lieberman be this year's Ralph Nader."

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet.

1. Sen. Bill Frist's VOLPAC launched the next phase of its web activist system this week: "iFrist Volunteers 3.0." The portal lets users obtain points by doing tasks online, such as commenting on the blog (one point), contributing (three points for every dollar) or singing up to be an iFrist volunteer (a whopping 100 points). Points will increase your rank, which in turn earns you benefits -- think T-shirts, a consult with the Web team or a pin denoting your rank (either "Organizer," "Captain," or "Leader"). Alright, so it's a little intense even for the blogosphere -- especially given the whole military (or perhaps even Star Trek?) motif. But you have to hand it to PAC that's already starting to train its volunteers -- all 1200 of whom have already signed up for the program according to their internet director -- years before an election.

2. Both PACs from John Edwards and Barbara Boxer released their online poll winners for '06 races within two hours of each other yesterday (but who would coordinate something like that anyway?). Edwards is giving his PAC dollars to and headlining fundraisers for Patty Wetterling running in MN-06 and ex-Rep. Nick Lampson in TX-22, while Boxer is donating to MO Senate candidate Clare McCaskill.

3. PersonalDemocracy.com reports that new political mobile firm MobileElect is doing SMS for Harold Ford's Senate campaign, which according to Ford's Web site, plans to send out at least one text message a day with campaign news. Seem like a little much? Blogger Justin Oberman agrees Mobile Accord is using SMS the best way it can in the given circumstances: frequent reminders of a "call to action" to a campaign's core supporters.

4. Other small bytes: Jim Webb for Senate re-designed its new Web site and launched a new volunteer site, http://bornfighting.com. Missouri Dems are touting an anti-Jim Talent Web ad on FiredUpMissouri.com. Finally, Bob Casey's campaign has released a revised version of their "Dodge, Duck, Dip, Dive And Dodge" video of Rick Santorum.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

The NRSC didn't want long to start rolling out their Lamont strategy. "Will [insert name of Democratic challenger or top NRSC target here] Support Fringe Candidate Ned Lamont Or The 2000 VP Nominee, Joe Lieberman?" read a series of emails that landed in our inboxes shortly after noon today.

And so it begins.

That's what ABC's George Stephanopoulos reports.

According to a close Lieberman adviser, the President's political guru, Karl Rove, has reached out to the Lieberman camp with a message straight from the Oval Office: "The boss wants to help. Whatever we can do, we will do."

We haven't been able to get independent confirmation of this just yet.

Update: The New Republic's Michael Crowley walks it back a little.

MI Rep. Joe Schwarz's long history in his CD -- from doctor, to mayor and active rep -- couldn't save himself from the fire that his moderate positions on social and fiscal issues kindled.

Schwarz's positions easily handed ex-state Rep. Tim Walberg the backing of MI Right to Life and the Club for Growth. RTL helped Walberg's ground game and CFG helped Walberg raise money when the MI and national GOP establishment lined up behind Schwarz.

(It's the first time a Club-endorsed candidate has ever beat a federal incumbent.) Schwarz's electoral base was never large to begin with: he won 24% in the six-way '04 GOP primary. It didn't hurt that Walberg is a minister and was a red-blooded fiscal conservative during his 16 years in the Legislature.

Sources in MI say that Schwarz ran a poor campaign. Robocalls from Pres. Bush, Laura Bush ex-Dem Gov. Jim Blanchard barely helped. Also: Walberg's campaign used sophisticated precinct targeting software developed by a young DC-based consultant.

The solidly GOP CD means Walberg is on his way to Congress. Walberg is certain to stay to the right once there, saying he admires Reps. Mike Pence (R-IN) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ). Schwarz's absence will rob moderate House GOPers of one of their own, at a time when they've played an influential role in shaping the House GOP agenda (like killing ANWR drilling).

Unified Dem opposition made moderates the key for the GOP leadership to pass legislation. The hope among conservatives is that Schwarz's defeat will encourage moderates to tack right. [JUSTIN MILLER and MARC AMBINDER]

The title of his latest press release:

SWANN CALLS FOR NEW DIRECTION

Unveils New Campaign Book Outlining His Vision for Pennsylvania

In a speech today in Cleveland, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman calls Ohio's Democratic Senate candidate, Sherrod Brown, "Ohio's answer to Ned Lamont" and that Lamont's victory "reflects an unfortunate embrace of isolationism, defeatism, and a ‘blame America first’ attitude by national Democratic leaders at a time when retreating from the world is particularly dangerous."

"Brown’s candidacy, Lieberman’s loss, and the responses of many of the Democratic leaders to the difficulty of the global jihad all add up to show that defeatism and isolationism are now Democratic Party orthodoxy," Mehlman plans to say. "And Democrat candidates had better embrace it … or risk being purged from the Party."

He also casts the Republicn Party as inclusive: "Our commitment [is] to a big-tent Party, where independent voices like Mike DeWine, Ken Blackwell, and George Voinovich are welcomed. Today we welcome people like that, people who put their constituents and their state before their party. Just as we welcome independent-minded, Democrats like Joe Lieberman."

A footnote: the RNC research department sent out a document entitled "FROM FDR TO NED LAMONT: THE DEMOCRAT PARTY'S TRANSFORMATION FROM STRENGTH TO WEAKNESS"

Here's a response from Brown's team: "“Ken Mehlman and President Bush have gotten everything they wanted from Mike DeWine, so it’s no surprise that Mehlman is in town to campaign for one of the President’s most loyal supporters. DeWine failed to question the intelligence that led our country to war, and he voted to provide billions of dollars in subsidies to the oil and drug companies that have led to higher gas and drug prices for Ohio families. Every chance Mike DeWine had to stand up to the President, DeWine ducked.”

From a joint release sent out by Sen. Chuck Schumer and Sen. Harry Reid:

“The Democratic voters of Connecticut have spoken and chosen Ned Lamont as their nominee. Both we and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) fully support Mr. Lamont’s candidacy. Congratulations to Ned on his victory and on a race well run.

“Joe Lieberman has been an effective Democratic Senator for Connecticut and for America. But the perception was that he was too close to George Bush and this election was, in many respects, a referendum on the President more than anything else. The results bode well for Democratic victories in November and our efforts to take the country in a new direction.”

The Miami Herald reports that FL GOV candidate Tom Gallagher is seriously thinking about cutting and running from the race.

From a Republican with knowledge of Gallagher's internal deliberations, we hear that he'll probably make up his mind by the beginning of next week.

However, the Republican said Gallagher was not considering a last-minute Senate primary challenge to Katherine Harris. [MARC AMBINDER]

The CT SEN results broke too late for cable primetime. The nets offered updates throughout the evening but the majority of the news was on the Middle East.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) made the morning show rounds this a.m.

Asked if he'll listen to calls of Dems for him to drop out: "I'll always take the calls of friends. But my mind is made up. I'm going forward. I'm going forward because I'm fed up with all the partisanship in Washington that stops us from getting from anything done. If my opponent, Mr. Lamont, ever is successful, the fact is he would just be one more partisan polarizer."

Asked if there is anyone who could get him to drop out: "Respectfully no. I am committed to this campaign -- to a different kind of politics, to bringing the Democratic Party back from the extreme, back from Ned Lamont and Maxine Waters, to the main stream. And for doing something for the people of Connecticut. That's what it's all about" ("Today," NBC, 8/9).

Asked if his support for the Iraq war led to his defeat: "Oh there's no question about it. Everything indication I had from the voters of Connecticut -- including public opinion polls -- said that they agreed with me on most issues, that they appreciated all the work I had done for the state of Connecticut, but my opponent convinced them -- with a lot of distortions I think -- to use this as a referendum to send a message of opposition and anger to President Bush. ... But there's more to our future than that issue."

On running as an independent: "Yesterday less than 15 percent of the registered voters in Connecticut voted. A little more than 7 percent of the registered voters voted for my opponent. I think this is such an important decision ... for our future that all the voters should have a choice and that's why I'm running."

More: "I think this is all about Iraq and opposing President Bush. ... I certainly believe we did the right thing in going in to overthrow Saddam. I said, along with John McCain and others, that we made mistakes after that. ... The key question is what do we do now. My opponent says let's get all our troops out by a deadline. I saw that will be dangerous for our troops, disastrous for the Middle East and really make America vulnerable to another terrorist attack like 9/11."

Asked if he's opening the race to a GOP victory: "I don't believe that is of the actual risk. I think for the most part, and in the end, that this is going to come down between round two or the second half between Ned Lamont and me. Ned Lamont and his supporters on the margins of our party and Joe Lieberman a mainstream Democrat who can win and will win in November" ("Early Show," CBS, 8/9).

Asked if he'll be out there all alone: "I'm in until November and I will certainly not be all alone. ... It's not selfish. It would be the easiest thing in the world for me to walk away. And as my wife always tells me, I'd make a lot more money than I do as a senator. But I believe in public service. I believe in my vision of the Democratic Party."

On the blogs: "The blogs are a form of expression. There is nothing wrong with a blog. It depends how you use it. I will tell you that the bloggers who came after me -- some of them were so full of hatred ... that it is just not good for our politics. And, frankly, on some of those blogs was the kind of bigotry that just has no place in American public life. So I worry that this victory by Ned Lamont ... will send a message across our state and our country that the Democratic Party has been taken over by people who are not from the mainstream of America. And they are going to make this not Bill Clinton's party anymore" ("GMA," ABC, 8/9).

ABOUT LAST NIGHT

Although Paul Begala offered this pre-results spin: "President Bush is on the ballot in Connecticut probably as much as Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont. ... These Democrats that are up for re-election this year, all of whom voted for the war: Hillary Clinton, Dianne Feinstein of California, Tom Carper of Delaware, Maria Cantwell of Washington state, Herb Kohl of Wisconsin, Bill Nelson of Florida. None of them have primary challenges, even though all of them voted for the war in Iraq. ... I think what has happened here is that it's not simply Iraq. It's the president's desperate unpopularity" ("Situation Room," CNN, 8/8).

And Mary Matalin offered this pre-results spin: "You know, it says not much. It doesn't portend much nationally, because Connecticut is a very, very blue state. It hasn't voted for a Republican president in four presidential races, but it does say something about the Democratic Party. ... You know what this victory says tonight for Lamont? When the bad guys turn up the heat, we're going to beat a hasty retreat. That's what it says about that party. It's sad" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 8/8).

Chris Matthews spoke with Ned Lamont pre-results and asked him about the problems withLieberman's web site. Lamont: "We don't know anything about it. If anybody is out there actually sabotaging something, we tell them to stop doing that. But for him to jump to conclusion that it has something to do with this campaign is just false" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 8/8).

And DailyKos' Markos Moulitsas said of the Lieberman web incident: "It's more evidence of the incompetence of the Lieberman campaign, incompetence that has put them in a position to potentially lose the election today. The fact is, they had a cheapie hosting account. They were paying maybe $15 a month for hosting. There were 73 other Web sites on the same
server as their own. And any kind of increased traffic that might come about if, say, maybe because of an election day ... crashes the server. They need a scapegoat for their own incompetence, and they're looking at bloggers" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 8/8).

FNC's Cameron: "As we begin to sort of take a look at how these precincts, how some of these towns and cities in Connecticut appear to break and what that might tell us about who is voting for Ned Lamont and Joe Lieberman and why you begin to see that many of the wealthier communities in Connecticut, many of the towns and cities where there's a higher level of education, a lot of college graduates and professionals, those are towns and cities where Ned Lamont seemed to do much stronger than Joe Lieberman. When you look at some of the more blue collar cities, New Haven, Bridgeport, down along the Long Island Sound those are areas where Joe Lieberman has done very well" ("On the Record," 8/8). [EMILY GOODIN]

If there was a way to obtain the per capita income and racial demographics of each Connecticut town, some politico cartographer wizard out there could have a field day portraying the economics and ethnicity of this race. Ned Lamont, scion of the Eastern Establishment, rolled up staggering margins in those places most likely to include his fellow anti-war WASPs. Joe Lieberman, son of a Stamford liquor store owner, won the workaday towns most likely to include other ethnic voters less motivated by opposition to Iraq.

With the exception of some of the cities or grittier suburbs, Lamont racked up victories of 10% or higher in town after town along the state's affluent shoreline. From his hometown of Greenwich (68-32%) on the Gold Coast next to NYC all the way up to Stonington (60-40%) on the RI line, Lamont won the Long Island Sound vote. He performed even better in the more wealthy parts of Litchfield Co, in the bucolic northwest corner of the state, crushing the three-term Senator with eye-popping numbers (Cornwall 91-9%; Canaan 83-17%) in some of the smaller towns there. The pattern was the same throughout the antique towns dotting the Connecticut River Valley, 15 point and higher margins throughout.

Lieberman's best returns came in the blue-collar and heavily-Irish and Italian Naugatuck River Valley, where he picked up 60-40 victories in places like Prospect, Beacon Falls, Naugatuck and Waterbury (where the rally with Pres Clinton was held).

Lamont's victories were not, however, totally limited to the state's elite. He scored victories in the two old-line Dem cities that are also home to tony colleges (New Haven, Yale and Middletown, Wesleyan Univ.) while also picking up a stunning win, as noted by Kevin Rennie, in the heavily-minority and low-income Bridgeport. Lieberman could've closed the gap down a bit from 4 pts had he done better in Hartford, but as the capital city returns finally rolled in for Lamont, it was clear who the night belonged to.

A closer look at two neighboring towns reveals the split. Sitting on the MA border halfway between Hartford and Springfield, MA, Enfield and Suffield are divided by only the Connecticut River. Both are essentially bedroom suburbs, but Enfield has a far higher middle-class and working-class population. Suffield, with its traditional clapboard houses and prep school on the town green, is more upper crust. The results reflect the pattern in the 167 other towns in CT: Lieberman eked out a two-point victory in Enfield, while losing by 20 in Suffield.

If it was, as Mike Barnicle put it on Hardball, a battle between Dunkin' Donuts and Starbucks, the folks holding the soy lattes won.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

 
CO 07 (D)        Perlmutter: 55%    Lamm 38%   57% in
CO 05 (R)        Crank 28%, Lamborn 22%, Rayburn 20%  85% in
MI SEN (R):      Bouchard 59%    Butler 41%  48% in 
CT GOV (D):      DeStefano  50.78%   Malloy 49.72%  98% in   
GA 04 (D)        Johnson 59%      McKinney 42%  89% in   
MI 07 (R)        Walberg 57%      Schwarz 43%    55%  in