DNC In Chicago: "We're Gonna Win (Maybe)!"
Caution, you're entering a [Dem] spin zone.
Strategists leading the Dems' campaign to retake Capitol Hill gave DNCers a detailed overview of the '06 landscape, in which they agreed with DNC Chair Howard Dean's opening assessment that "if the election were held today, we'd have a terrific shot at taking back the Senate and we would take back the House."
In other words, officials said, Dems remain better positioned in the House than in the Senate, where they have yet to identify a sixth realistic pick-up opportunity (prospects include VA, TN and AZ, none of which currently features a Dem frontrunner).
Nonetheless, the DSCC's J.B. Poersch and DCCC's Karin Johanson gave a realistic-to-rosy picture of the '06 campaign cycle. Poersch was particularly rosy in his assessment; He included the IN SEN race in his hand-out packet of "Races to Watch 2006," even though Dems failed to even recruit a challenger to incumbent GOP Sen. Dick Lugar there.
(Speaking afterward, one Dem said the session could have been more useful if officials had closed it to the press, allowing the strategists to be far more frank in their assessments of the races. "It just felt like a pep rally, all spin and no substance, and we really need to know where we actually stand," he said).
Johanson said the DCCC is in great financial shape, having more CoH for the second month in a row (a first, ever). She said the cmte is watching 15 races in the West, 18 in the northeast, 19 in the midwest and 14 in the south -- a relatively equal regional distribution that officials noted was in line with Dean's "50 State strategy."
"Our biggest problem may be that we have more [competitive races] than we can handle," she said. "We'll have to be judicious about our spending."
She said Dems will also have an effective GOTV effort. "One thing I'm offended by is that I read in the paper about how Republicans are so great at getting out the vote. Apparently no one ever got a vote out before the Republicans' 2002 '72-hour Project," she said. "We are going to get out the vote."
She also provided this interesting nugget: There are currently 67 Dems in targeted House races with more than $200K on hand. Fifty-three of them have more than $500K in the bank; 40 have more than $750K, 28 have more than $1M and five candidates have more than $2M on hand, she said.
For his part, Dean told Dems that the DNC is spending $12M combined on House, SEN, GOV and state legis races this cycle, targeting 38 House and 7 SEN races. [JOHN MERCURIO]