September 2006

It’s been a long 48 hours for the House Republican leadership. It all started when the media began reporting on the inappropriate email and instant message exchanges between now-ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) and an underage teenager.

Let’s first agree that what Foley did was wrong, predatory and possibly illegal. And the resulting decision by Foley to resign was not only appropriate, it may be the least of the punishment, depending on whether a criminal investigation is seriously pursued.

But what’s given the House GOP leadership headaches today and possibly for the rest of the election cycle is the series of events that took place nearly a year ago when news of some initial questionable contact between an underage House page and Foley were first unearthed.

The timeline of what Speaker Dennis Hastert knew and when he knew it, has seemed to change throughout the last 48 hours. Late 9/30 p.m., the Speaker’s office released a fairly detailed explanation of when Speaker’s office first learned of the complaint. (See below post). But the explanation doesn’t answer every question. [CHUCK TODD and JOHN MERCURIO]

Congressman Dale Kildee (D-MI), the Democratic Member of the House Page Board, released the following statement today:

"As the Democratic Member of the House Page Board, any statement by Mr. Reynolds or anyone else that the House Page Board ever investigated Mr. Foley is completely untrue.

"I was never informed of the allegations about Mr. Foley's inappropriate communications with a House Page and I was never involved in any inquiry into this matter.

"The first and only meeting of the House Page Board on this matter occurred on Friday, September 29 at approximately 6 p.m., after the allegations about Mr. Foley had become public."

For Immediate Release: Contact: Press Office

Saturday, September 30, 2006 (202) 479-7070

NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds Statement

WASHINGTON — National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Tom Reynolds today issued the following statement:

"Rodney Alexander brought to my attention the existence of e-mails between Mark Foley and a former page of Mr. Alexander's. Despite the fact that I had not seen the e-mails in question, and Mr. Alexander told me that the parents didn't want the matter pursued, I told the Speaker of the conversation Mr. Alexander had with me.

"Mr. Alexander has also said he took the matter to the Clerk of the House. An investigation was then conducted by the Clerk and John Shimkus on behalf of the House Page Board.

"Mark Foley betrayed the integrity of this institution as well as the trust of his colleagues and constituents. There is no excuse, and he needs to be held accountable."

The Speaker's office has just released the results of an internal investigation on what they knew and when they knew it:

INTERNAL REVIEW OF CONTACTS WITH THE OFFICE OF THE SPEAKER REGARDING THE CONGRESSMAN MARK FOLEY MATTER

On Friday, September 29, the Speaker directed his Chief of Staff and Outside Counsel to conduct an internal review to determine the facts and circumstances surrounding contact with the Office of the Speaker regarding the Congressman Mark Foley matter. The following is their preliminary report.

Email Exchange Between Congressman Foley and a Constituent of Congressman Alexander

In the fall of 2005 Tim Kennedy, a staff assistant in the Speaker's Office, received a telephone call from Congressman Rodney Alexander's Chief of Staff who indicated that he had an email exchange between Congressman Foley and a former House page. He did not reveal the specific text of the email but expressed that he and Congressman Alexander were concerned about it.

Tim Kennedy immediately discussed the matter with his supervisor, Mike Stokke, Speaker Hastert's Deputy Chief of Staff. Stokke directed Kennedy to ask Ted Van Der Meid, the Speaker's in house Counsel, who the proper person was for Congressman Alexander to report a problem related to a former page. Ted Van Der Meid told Kennedy it was the Clerk of the House who should be notified as the responsible House Officer for the page program. Later that day Stokke met with Congressman Alexander's Chief of Staff. Once again the specific content of the email was not discussed. Stokke called the Clerk and asked him to come to the Speaker's Office so that he could put him together with Congressman Alexander's Chief of Staff. The Clerk and Congressman Alexander's Chief of Staff then went to the Clerk's Office to discuss the matter.

The Clerk asked to see the text of the email. Congressman Alexander's office declined citing the fact that the family wished to maintain as much privacy as possible and simply wanted the contact to stop. The Clerk asked if the email exchange was of a sexual nature and was assured it was not. Congressman Alexander's Chief of Staff characterized the email exchange as over-friendly.

The Clerk then contacted Congressman Shimkus, the Chairman of the Page Board to request an immediate meeting. It appears he also notified Van Der Meid that he had received the complaint and was taking action. This is entirely consistent with what he would normally expect to occur as he was the Speaker's Office liaison with the Clerk's Office.

The Clerk and Congressman Shimkus met and then immediately met with Foley to discuss the matter. They asked Foley about the email. Congressman Shimkus and the Clerk made it clear that to avoid even the appearance of impropriety and at the request of the parents, Congressman Foley was to immediately cease any communication with the young man.

The Clerk recalls that later that day he encountered Van Der Meid on the House floor and reported to him that he and Shimkus personally had spoken to Foley and had taken corrective action.

Mindful of the sensitivity to the parent's wishes to protect their child's privacy and believing that they had promptly reported what they knew to the proper authorities Kennedy, Van Der Meid and Stokke did not discuss the matter with others in the Speaker's Office.

Congressman Tom Reynolds in a statement issued today indicates that many months later, in the spring of 2006, he was approached by Congressman Alexander who mentioned the Foley issue from the previous fall. During a meeting with the Speaker he says he noted the issue which had been raised by Alexander and told the Speaker that an investigation was conducted by the Clerk of the House and Shimkus. While the Speaker does not explicitly recall this conversation, he has no reason to dispute Congressman Reynold's recollection that he reported to him on the problem and its resolution.

Sexually Explicit Instant Message Transcript

No one in the Speaker's Office was made aware of the sexually explicit text messages which press reports suggest had been directed to another individual until they were revealed in the press and on the internet this week. In fact, no one was ever made aware of any sexually explicit email or text messages at any time.

# # #

Mark Foley's fast fall from grace means the GOP now has three House races with replacement candidates ... How close was James Baker to becoming the Rummy replacement? ... Allen's stumbles lead to a Webb fundraising boom ... The best political murder mystery in America is taking place in Nevada

The Brunch is an exclusive Saturday political news digest and tip sheet from the editors of The Hotline.

WHAT'S BREWING

Businessman Tim Mahoney (D) released a statement on Rep. Mark Foley's (R)resignation:

The challenges facing Congressman Foley make this is a difficult time for the people of the 16th district. The families of all of those involved are in our thoughts and prayers.

When Terry and I decided to run for Congress one year ago, we did so because we believe every child deserves to live their American dream and every generation has the responsibility to give their children a world that is safer, more moral, and offers them the opportunity to live that dream.

We have been running a spirited campaign on the issues important to the people of the 16th Congressional District: issues like homeowners’ insurance, healthcare, education, dignity for our seniors, winning the War on Terror and we will continue to do so.

Over the past year I have spoken to thousands of Floridians and their message is clear: Floridians are ready for a change.

They want a Congressman who will work in a spirit of bipartisanship to restore their values to Washington and who will make sure that we are taking care of their interests and not special interests.

Our work is not complete. I look forward to continuing our campaign and working with Florida families to build a stronger future. Together we can get America back on track.

The DCCC just released this statement on Rep. Mark Foley's (R) resignation:

Tim Mahoney, the Democratic candidate in FL-16, has been conducting a vigorous campaign for more than a year and running television ads for almost a month. He has raised over $700,000 and he’s personally donated an additional $349,000.

In the latest poll in the district, conducted by Hamilton Beattie and completed September 14th, Foley was under 50%, Senator Nelson was ahead and President Bush’s approval rating was below its level in the rest of the state. Senator Graham won this district in his last election.

Tim Mahoney is a father, business owner and moderate Democrat. He is the co-founder, Chairman and COO of vFinance, Inc and the founder and President of The Center for Innovative Entrepreneurship. Since its inception five years ago, vFinance has grown to become a $26 million provider of financial services in the retail brokerage, investment banking and institutional service businesses. The company manages in excess of $1 billion of client assets and has over 200 employees located in more than 30 offices nationwide.

Foley’s name cannot be removed from the general election ballot.

The AP was a bit premature on Foley's ballot status.

According to Florida election law (and confirmed by a spokesman for Dem nominee Tim Mahoney), Rep. Mark Foley's name will remain on the FL 16 ballot. The one caveat for Republicans? The state GOP will be able to designate a replacement candidate. All votes that go to Foley will count for the "GOP-designated" candidate.

AP's Espo has one line in the current Foley resignation write-thru that claims the FL GOP can replace Foley's name on the ballot.

Mark Foley's resignation from Congress is "effective today," according to an official statement his office released to the media.

Full Foley statement:

"Today I have delivered a letter to the Speaker of the House informing him of my decision to resign from the U.S. House of Representatives, effective todya. I thank the people of Florida's 16th Congressional District for giving me the opportunity to serve them for the last twelve years; it has been an honor. I am deeply sorry and I apologize for letting down my family and the people of Florida I have had the privilege to represent."

Multiple national news outlets are reporting that Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL 16) is going to announce that he will not seek re-election. Just 24 hours ago, news leaked out of private emails Foley sent to an underage former Congressional page that the Page believed was inappropriate.

Foley was in a modestly competitive race with Democrat Tim Mahoney. Bush won 54% of the district's vote in '04, comparable to AZ 08 -- another top open seat pickup opportunity for Dems.

It's hard to imagine that this doesn't put FL 16 in the Dem column as Mahoney was self-funding and had also raised a decent chunk of change. While the Foley decision not to run again might give the FL GOP time to find another candidate, it's unclear. We're checking with the state right now to clarify the law. If Foley's name can't be replaced, it's probably safe to say the Democrats would need just 14 seats to win Congress as this one would go to the Dems almost uncontested.

Stay tuned to On Call for more on this breaking news.

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

*Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign has launched a personal home page program, MyGovernor.com . It's a lot like MyGOP.com, but with a better design and more features. Kintera hosts the platform where supporters can set their own fundraising and recruitment goals, and choose their own page design.

OTD can only imagine what kind of information this gives the campaign on the back end. If this program takes off, Schwarzenegger's campaign will have a very good sense of who their supporters are and how much effort they're willing to put into the campaign (i.e. recruit 5 people versus fifty, raise $20 versus $200). Users also have some basic choices on what kind of content goes on their personal page, for example if they want a statement about immigration or the economy -- also information for the campaign about which issues their core supporters care about.

The site is still working out a few snags, for example the features on the right margin are jumbled in Firefox, but not Internet Explorer. But it's one of the most detailed personal political pages out there. After supporters send along an e-mail, they can monitor their e-mail buddy's activity on the site, such as how many links they've clicked on the page or if they've ordered a Schwarzenegger catalog.

*It seems MySpace.com is getting into the activism business just like Facebook.com. The site launched a "Declare Yourself" campaign this week aimed at guiding its young users through the voter registration process. Declare Yourself, which started for the 2004 election, uses third-party program ElectionImpact.com for the process.

Best of the Web bytes for the weekend:
*You called me what?!?!?! Check out Slate.com's George Allen Insult Generator.
*OTD is unusually motivated by Deval Patrick's Web spot, "Victory." Must be that inspirational music in the background... It's worth a look and listen, if only to check out the user-friendly video platform on DevalPatrick.tv.
*If ProgressOhio wasn't enough lefty netroots activism for one state this week, Ohio Democrats have put up PaintOhioBlue.com.
*CongressIn30Seconds is an video contest which asks users to create a half-minute webmercial about Congress.
*Colin Delany has published 43-page electronic handbook on online politics including everything from MySpace to e-mail lists.

This week on Hotline TV, Chuck and John preview the two finalists for the GOP WH '08 nomination, pick the Dems' 6th Sen seat, wonder how GOPers let Dems take over immigration and tell you which races have already been decided.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), in an implicit rebuke of Sen. John McCain’s aggressive courtship of Republicans in his state, is urging party leaders to wait until after November’s midterm elections before deciding on a presidential candidate to endorse.

“I understand that efforts are already underway to secure commitments for the Presidential primary, even though it is still well over a year away,” DeMint writes in the letter, which will be mailed to about 10,000 activists and precinct captains today. “While there are clear benefits to starting early, I believe we must remain focused on the task at hand: electing our Republican team in South Carolina this November.”

The letter was given to the Hotline by a South Carolina Republican.

DeMint, then a first-term Congressman, supported George W. Bush in the contentious 2000 South Carolina primary and has not warmed to McCain in the years since. That DeMint found it necessary to write such a letter more than a year before the 2008 primary testifies to both the extraordinarily early public competition for endorsements in the state as well as McCain’s success in winning major Republican figures to his still-nascent 2008 campaign.

They include State Sen. John Courson, Attorney General Henry McMaster, former attorney Charlie Condon and Bart Daniel, one of the first Republicans to support Bush in ’00. On Thursday, Strom Thurmond Jr., the son of the long-serving senator, and Carroll Campbell III, the son of a beloved governor, joined McCain’s political action committee.

DeMint’s fellow Republican Senator, Lindsey Graham, is one of McCain’s closest friends and has telephoned dozens of Republicans in the state on McCain’s behalf.

Read parts of the letter this morning, McMaster, the SC GOP's chair in 2000, said that DeMint's concerns rang hollow . "In that case they'd better go rebuke Ronald Reagan and George Bush and everybody else that came to South Carolina years before the presidential election to seek support and committments and build their campaign team," McMaster said. :That's the way it's been done since our first primary in 1980."

Early campaigning, he said, "is what has built the party and built the strength of the party."

All nine statewide office holders, including Gov. Mark Sanford, are on the ballot, and a few powerful state legislators face competitive challenges from Democrats. DeMint writes that Republicans “cannot allow ourselves to be distracted by '08 campaigning.”

Still, few, if any Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their jobs, which means that some may read the letter as an attempt to slow down McCain’s momentum in the state.
MARC AMBINDER]

TV last night was all about interviews:

"Hardball" had an interview with Patricia Waring, the former wife of Sen. George Allen's (R-VA) rugby coach, who claims she heard Allen use the "N" word:

MSNBC's Shuster: "Pat Waring of Chestertown, Maryland, first brought her story to MSNBC when she contacted us in a direct phone call. We then conducted a series of interviews. Waring says that a sports match in the late 1970's, Allen repeatedly used the N-word to describe blacks."

Waring: "I just didn't think in the late 1970's people would be so ugly and so overt about it, so public."

Shuster: "Waring says that in 1978 she and her then husband Robert Michael Schwartz had just moved to Charlottesville, Virginia. Friends from the time confirm Schwartz was a P.H.D. candidate at the University of Virginia, an avid rugby player, and the volunteer coach of the school's rugby club team. MSNBC has confirmed also Pat Waring worked in a doctor's office and came to some of the rugby games. Waring says there is one game from either the Fall of 1978 or the Spring of 1979 that she will never forget."

Waring: "I heard to my left the N-word and I heard it again and I looked around and I heard it again and there was this fellow sitting on the ground. He was putting on red rugby shoes. It is seared in my brain, believe me. And he was kind of showing off, I guess. But he was telling a story about something or other and in the story there were a lot of N-words. So I got out of the bleacher and I went over and I said, young man, I'm the coach's wife and if you don't mind, would you please not use that word. And he in essence told me to buzz off. And I thought, OK, so I went back to the bleacher and I said to the boy beside me, a man, who is that kid? And he said, oh, that's George Allen."

Shuster: "Waring says the incident has stayed with her because of the N-word, because Allen's father had been coach of the Washington Redskins in the 1970s and because she is a lifelong Redskins fan."

More Shuster: "Another Waring relative Beverly Bruster, who graduated from the U.V.A. law school one year behind Allen, told us Waring talked about the alleged Allen incident at the time. Another relative whom we spoke to says Waring told the story through the years and several people say she talked about it this summer."

Waring: "I have thought about it since I heard that George Allen was being considered as ... a possible candidate for the presidency. And I thought, well, gee in that case I guess I will have to speak up but then Macaca presented itself."

Shuster: "Neal Brendel, who played rugby with George Allen and remembers sitting at some games with Pat Waring says he does not remember the alleged incident. Furthermore Brendel says, quote, I don't recall ever hearing Allen use the N-word on or off the field, nor do I recall him ever talking about anybody unfairly."

Waring, asked why she never came forward before: "Soon after that, I left Charlottesville and I moved to Connecticut and so I was really kind of divorced from all that. I didn't know what was going on in Virginia. Unless you got the New York Times and I wasn't really interested."

Asked if she's a registered Dem: "I am indeed."

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Battle-Tested?: Democracy Corps released a study of focus groups in battleground districts.
Key findings: attempts to depict incumbents as puppets of Pres. Bush have largely failed, as many voters consider long-time members, such as Reps. Chris Shays (R-CT 04) and Clay Shaw (R-FL 22), independent operators. What's more, several GOP attack ads have affected voters. The NRCC ad attacking ret. Adm Joe Sestak (D-PA 07) of favoring higher taxes, for example, "resonated broadly." (Hotline sources).

2. No Bargain With Bachmann: In a new MN 06 TV ad, '04 nominee Patty Wetterling (D) attacks state Sen. Michele Bachmann 's (R) tax plans. ANNCR: Bachmann claims she's for lower taxes but she supports a new sales tax that would cost us... 23 percent more at the pump...for groceries and clothing...when you buy a car, or even a new home." However, the ad "doesn't mention that the sales tax would replace" existing federal income and payroll taxes. (Minneapolis Star Tribune).

3. Gerlach Pulling Away?: Two new PA 06 polls show Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) leading atty/'04 nom. Lois Murphy (D). The independent Keystone poll says Gerlach's ahead by 7 points; the poll conducted for the NRCC has him leading by 12.

4. Champagne Corks At The DCCC?: A new DCCC poll in FL 22 shows Rep. Clay Shaw (R) trailing state Sen. Ron Klein's (D) by one point.

Meanwhile, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani "upped the stakes" 9/27 "arguing that Shaw's re-election is bigger than just one congressional seat." What's more, Giuliani "said he believes" GOP control of Congress "is key to fighting terror," and therefore "feels it vital for the GOP that Shaw hold onto his seat." Yet although Klein has "hammered away at Shaw" on the war in Iraq, the war "has not played a prominent role" in Shaw's campaign (Miami Herald).

5. Write On: As part of "the fight to replace" ex-Rep. Tom DeLay (R) the NRCC's "donating more than" $100K to help Houston councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs' (R) "get out the vote" efforts. Meanwhile, VP Cheney will host "a Houston fundraiser" next month to help her raise money. (AP/Waco Tribune-Herald ).

It's not quite Macaca-gate, but YouTube has struck again. Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) flashed his temper at a local CBS reporter 9/26 and cameras were rolling -- specifically those operated by LG Mark Taylor's (D) staff.

The footage shows an irritated Perdue telling reporter Wendy Saltzman that she "might want to think about some other markets -- like Chattanooga and Columbia and Tallahassee and those kinds of things."

Saltzman had asked about cuts to some health care programs, according to a source with Taylor's campaign, while Perdue was discussing proposed tax breaks for biofuel producers. After Perdue turned to another questioner, Saltzman tried again. Perdue, once again: "I'm sorry dear. You know, if you can't get answers, you might think about another market."

You can see the video here.

"The governor was being dismissive of a reporter's question that had been asked multiple times and answered multiple times," Derrick Dickey, a spokesperson for Perdue's campaign, told The Hotline. Other GA press has yet to report on the incident. [REID WILSON]

John and Chuck stump the CW! What happens if Dems win the Senate and fail to pick off the House?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

If you've heard of Nancy Pelosi, you're probably a Republican.That's one fascinating finding from our new Diageo/Hotline poll, which suggests House GOPers are working to raise the would-be Speaker's profile with their base. They don't like what they hear (her GOP unfavs are twice as high as Hastert's Dem unfavs). But will it scare them into voting?

The poll shows a generic-ballot swing toward Dems since 8/20. In a narrow flip from 7/23, more voters think Dems will win this fall. And if they do, more voters now think Iraq will "get better" (including a 3-1 edge among indies), while more folks believe the situation will "get worse" if GOPers win.

HRC's slightly better liked than Pres. Bush, whose job approval holds steady at 42%, but both are waaaay more popular than Congress and significantly less popular than John McCain. Also, likely voters have a worse view of Congress than registered voters, even as LVs have slightly better view of Bush than RVs.

But it bears repeating: Pelosi's name ID is rising, and not in the "new direction" she'd hoped.

Front pages stories in New Jersey's biggest newspapers (and Philly's, too) have heightened speculation that NJ Dems will seek to replace Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on the November ballot. The Newark Star Ledger, Bergen Record and Philadelphia Inquirer have the details. The basic story: Menendez's "closest political adviser" is heard on tape "invoking" Menendez's name while seeking political favors.

Unnamed Dems sound nervous in each of the stories, while Menendez's camp tries to distance him from the story. As PoliticsNJ.com points out, this is the talk of the day in the state. The NRSC has already issued a release announcing a conference call "to discuss preparations in event of" a candidate switch.

It's worth pointing out this too-good-to-be-true bit of history: Sen. Bob Torricelli (D) withdrew from his re-election race on September 30, 2002. Dick Codey, your phone is ringing ...

Will Lindsey Graham be the Joe Lieberman of '08? If so, can John McCain survive the SC primary? Hotline senior editor John Mercurio takes a look in his new PolitiScope.

Sen. John McCain rolled out two more SC endorsements today, each with a very recognizable name. Strom Thurmond, Jr. and Carroll A. Campbell, III will serve as state co-chairs of Straight Talk America. The son of the iconic ex-Senator was appointed US Atty by Pres Bush and is now in private practice. Campbell, son of the ex-congressman and gov whose political machine delievered the state in every contested SC presidential primary for two decades, is a businessman.

We await the Romney rebuttal.

The city of Denver, which as recently as early September stood a small chance of securing the Democratic National Convention in '08, is a contender once again.

If anything, city leaders can thank the Republicans. Set side-by-side, New York's bid is stronger. But the political argument for Denver is far more compelling, thanks to its geographical location, the blue hue of growing parts of the state, its Latino population, and its Mountain West political culture.

Party sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that Denver's third revision of its bid sufficiently addressed a number of technical concerns that originally caused some on the site selection committee to dismiss it entirely.

Some donors are pushing heavily for New York, which turned in superlative a bid and is heavily lobbying the DNC. But some of Howard Dean's closest advisers are warming to Denver.

Many on the site selection committee had high hopes for Denver and found themsleves taken aback by Denver's first official submission. It had been written by the city's convention and visitors bureau, which seemed to have mistaken a national party for a very large, but very ordinary, sports event. One official said that the first Denver bid seemed to be an appended version the city's attempt to land an NBA All-Star game.

And aside its patchwork quality, there was a major, seemingly intractible problem: the city had no union hotels and labor had little chance of organizing one before the convention. Denver's locals are on board, but many national labor leaders, already feeling underappreciated by the party, are withholding their approval.

But Denver's bid now highlights several strengths : the convention would be held in the Pepsi Center , which is surrounded by acres of open parking lots. That's perfect for the media, which sets up tent cities and builds newsrooms, and for security planners, who have plenty of space to set up barriers and control the flow of people and traffic. The Pepsi Center is attached to Denver's convention center, and the city's light rail line directly skirts major delegate and campaign hotels.

In the months since it first turned in its bid, Denver tightened some its hinges and hired Debbie Wilhite, a veteran convention organizer, to reorganize its effort. Meanwhile, the site selection committee turned its gaze to the Twin Cities. It had transporation problems but plenty of union hotels. By metrics alone, New York City's bid towered above other cities, and some on the committee argued internally that the security needs in a post-9/11 era couldn't really be met by any other muncipality.

Today: the GOP threw a wrench into the Democrats' calculations. The RNC site selection committee wasn't supposed to choose its city until -- at the earliest -- December. But Republicans said the strength of the Twin Cities' courtship, combined with a desire to prevent the Democrats from choosing a blue-trending battleground state, necessitated the surgical action. Cleveland, another finalist, simply couldn't provide the RNC with assurance that it had enough hotel rooms. Tampa had hurricanes. And a well-timed convention announcement might help Gov. Tim Pawlenty survive a tough re-election challenge this cycle.

Some Democrats speculate that the RNC wanted to avenge an embarassment; last year, the DNC surprised the Republicans by choosing their 2008 convention dates much earlier than anticipated.

Another plus for Denver: Republicans could choose New York in 2004 because of its 9/11 symbolism; the Democrats wouldn't be able to choose New York without explaining why they passed over two culturally distinct states in the interior of the country.

And Dean is an insurgent as much as he is a party leader. If donors and the party elite urge him to hold the convention in New York, he just might be inclined to throw his weight behind another city. [MARC AMBINDER]

You're traveling through another dimension; a dimension not only of sight and sound, but of mind. It's a journey into a wondrous land where the surname Bush is glorious, and whose boundaries are that of imagination. That's the signpost up ahead -- your next stop, Florida.

Of all the Bushes that have run for office, the only one that seems like a natural is Jeb, and he'll probably be the only Bush to not ever seek the presidency.

Older readers will recognize the words above from the introduction to the hit TV show, "The Twilight Zone."

Believe it or not, there's a swing state in this country where the name Bush is not a negative. In fact, in this magical place, Republicans clamor to be seen next to this Bush. In primaries, candidates even argued over who is best able to carry on the Bush legacy.

In this place they call Florida, nearly as many Democrats approve of the way this Bush has handled his job as those who disapprove.

Of course, I speak of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush -- the most popular Republican in Florida now and, perhaps, in the state's history.

A few weeks ago, in the days leading up to the Florida primary, one could surf the local TV airwaves in any media market, from Miami to Pensacola, and see something that no other voter in the other 49 states was seeing: Republicans running toward a Bush. In TV ad after TV ad, whether it was a candidate for state senator or a candidate for governor, Republicans couldn't get enough of Jeb Bush. They couldn't be shown enough standing next to Bush or, if necessary, having him vouch for them in ads.

Read Chuck Todd's full On The Trail column.

Sometimes it's the hometown crowd that's toughest to please. Today, we ask the question: Which state's press corps is the toughest to deal with? Sens. Santorum, Burns, Allen and Menendez, we know your pain.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. A Cut-and-Runner?: During a CO 07 debate between ex-state Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D) and Higher Education Commissioner Chair Rick O'Donnell (R) 9/26, O'Donnell used "a startling new tack," criticizing the Bush administration on its handling of the war in Iraq. Perlmutter: "What we're doing right now isn't working... a failure of leadership from our president." Yet in the past, O'Donnell has "refrained from criticizing Bush" (Rocky Mountain News).

2. Taking It Personally: Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth's (D) campaign accused state Sen. Peter Roskam (R) in IL 06 of saying Duckworth supports a "cut-and-run" strategy in Iraq. Duckworth manager Jon Carson explained, "Tammy lost her legs fighting in Iraq and to accuse her of wanting to 'cut and run' is simply crude." Transcripts from a 9/24 radio debate include Roskam saying, "what the national Democrats are running on is a cut-and-run program," yet Roskam manager Ryan McLaughlin says it's "a Duckworth campaign strategy" to "lie enough times in the hope that voters in the district will believe it" (Chicago Sun Times).

3. The Laura Treatment: State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) has offered "strong support for the president's foreign policies" and on 9/26, FLOTUS Laura Bush (R) gave Padgett hers. At an OH 18 GOP fundraiser, FLOTUS helped raise $150K. L. Bush: "We must have serious national conversations, conducted with civility and respect... Padgett will be a positive and powerful part of that dialogue" (Columbus Dispatch).
And in NY 24, State Sen. Ray Meier's (R) campaign also received a little L. Bush help 9/26 -- a " monetary boost," which raised $120K. Meier: "It's a big boost, a great assist for the campaign, but it doesn't change the campaign" (Newsday ).

4. A Problematic Proposal?: In IA 01, atty Bruce Braley (D) won't let Restaurateur Mike Whalen's (R) claims about his position on the war in Iraq go unchecked. In a new TV ad, Whalen says Braley would "risk the safety" of US troops in Iraq. Yet Braley said that was "false" and claimed "Whalen wants to 'stay the course' in Iraq --- and he will give President Bush a blank check to stay forever" (Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier).

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.

1. Breakin' The Law? The DSCC won't back off on Ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) in TN. In a new TV ad, the DSCC accuses Corker of permitting illegal workers on one of his worksites. Corker "may talk tough about illegal immigration," but "the INS found illegal workers on Bob Corker's construction site." Yet Rep. Harold Ford (D) Jr. "will get control of our borders...get tough on illegals -- and employers who break the law."

In response, Corker launched an ad asking, "Is there any politician who says we've got to be weak on crime?" He said as mayor, he "cut violent crime by 50 percent... figured out who the bad guys were, and sent them away." Pres. Bush is in TN to raise money for Corker today.

2. So The NRSC Isn't Abandoning Him... In PA, the NRSC's stepping in for Sen. Rick Santorum (R), paying for new TV ads with 441AD money.

3. No Hard Feelings From Keenan: Sen. Conrad Burns (R) unleashed a new ad in MT showcasing state Senate Min. Leader/ex-candidate Bob Keenan (R) saying viewers "can't afford" to test out Jon Tester.

Keenan says the Tester viewers see on TV "is all conservative talk." The "real" Tester "votes with the liberal left because he is one of them." What's more, Tester "even co-sponsored a bill to increase income taxes on eople making as little as" $24K/year. "We can't afford the real John Tester."

4. Back To Basics: At a time where both '04 GOV nominee/Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) and Sen Jim Talent (R) deliver "very unifying messages," McCaskill could rally up Dems over a new stem-cell iniative on the MO ballot, which Dems are "expected to benefit from." Yet so far, McCaskill's "failing to capitalize" on the opportunity. If she wants to "topple" Sen. Jim Talent (R) 11/06, Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver (D-05) suggests she become " infinitely more powerful" in mobilizing Dem support. (The Hill)

Get ready for "Minnesota Nice."

AP reports that GOPers have picked the Twin Cities for the '08 Convo.

And the Star-Trib can't wait.

The WH invited bloggers involved in the passage of S. 2590 to the bill's signing 9/26 and even allowed Pres. Bush to be photographed shaking bloggers' hands. And yet nary a mention in Bush's remarks about the bloggers present, let alone words of praise for their efforts. As MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) sits down with RedState on 9/26 and NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D) provides a major sponsorship for MyDD, it's clear that WH '08 candidates are courting the blogosphere in their own ways. Whoever is the next Pres., it's a safe bet that when he or she invites bloggers to the WH, the transcript will reflect that they were actually there.

Read the full Blogometer.

The Atlantic's Joshua Green profiles Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Here are some excerpts

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.
We're starting to see the old cliché that "campaigns matter" play out in key House races. While polls suggest Rep. Anne Northup (R-KY 03) only has a narrow lead against alt-weekly publisher John Yarmuth (D), she just unleashed her best weapon: Yarmuth's newspaper columns. She's on air slamming Yarmuth on Social Security, taxes and marijuana legalization. Yarmuth is an oppo-researchers' dream candidate, with his treasure trove of controversial columns. Look no further than last cycle in KY 04, where Nick Clooney's (D) clips for the Kentucky Post came back to haunt him. And that's why Yarmuth hasn't made the DCCC's Red-to-Blue list.

Meanwhile, ex-Redskins QB Heath Shuler (D) is now facing a blitz of attacks from GOPers. His former real estate firm (which he retains minority ownership) was late in paying over $69K in taxes. The NRCC's latest attack ad references the issue, and Shuler's campaign hasn't responded. In a race that has centered on Taylor's shaky ethics, the last thing Shuler needs is an ethical lapse of his own. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Speaker of the House of Representatives in Iowa, Chris Rants, will join Gov. Mitt Romney's Commonwealth PAC as an advisor. The two will appear together in a nicely-staged news conference at about 12:40 ET, right after Romney finishes a health care event. Rants is a powerful addition to Romney's team. Rants is young, charismatic, accessible to the media, and despite the presence of several intense factions with the state Republican caucus, is fairly influential.

In New Hampshire, sherrifs endorsements matter. They run their own campaigns. They get to know -- and get to know well -- the prominent families and businesses and municipal officials in their counties. They also know local police chiefs and their staffs. Joining Sen, John McCain's Straight Talk America are Sheriffs Scott Carr (Carroll County), Doug Dutile (Grafton County), Dick Foote (Cheshire County), Jim Hardy (Hillsborough County), Chet Jordan (Merrimack County – outgoing), Scott Hilliard (Merrimack County – Republican Nominee), and Gerald Marcou (Coos County).

Carr was a Bush supporter in '00. Says he, in a statement provided by McCain's Straight Talk America PAC: "John McCain knows New Hampshire, he knows national security, and he knows how to win on the issues that are most important to Americans. I am honored to join with my colleagues to support his efforts.”

In SC, Mark Warner (D) said he would make a "formal" decision "between Election Day and Thanksgiving" (Orangeburg Times and Democrat). Also worth noting from this remarkably nugget-filled article is Dick Harpootlian's full-throated support for Warner, and a description of the campaign-style event at a prominent Baptist church. Telephone calls were made, apparently, to entice people to come.

What does the Democratic base crave over the next two years? A frustrated and defeated President Bush? Or their leaders working with chastened Republicans to solve the nation's problems?

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner , whose national stump speech alternates between the two poles, has found a creative and suble way to figure out the answer, at least in Iowa.

His Forward Togerher PAC mailed a typewritten survey to tens of thousands of activists who voted in the 2004 caucuses. The Hotline obtained a copy from a Polk Co. Democrat and confirmed its authenticity with the PAC.

In a post-script to an appeal for assistance in choosing Warner's next "Mapchanger" candidate, Warner asks recipients to help him by "sending me your priorities for Iowa."

On an attached page, an Iowa Democratic Leadership Survey asks which of the following issues are "most important." They include "Ending the war in Iraq," "Improving education," "Combating terrorism," "Defending a women's right to choose" and "Reducing the deficit." A second question asks "which strategy" the recipient believes will be "most important in achieving energy independence." The choices include biofuel conversion, conservation and renewable energy expansion. A final question asks Democrats to choose between the party's common ground and shout-'em-down, shut 'em down wing.

"Which statement comes closer to your viewpoint?"

"Democrats in Congress should be more forceful in standing up for our principles and fighting the Bush administration." Or... "Given the problems facing America, both parties need to work harder to find common ground and get things down for our nation."

The main purpose of the letter is to figure out which state senate and state house candidates would most benefit from an October infusion of cash. They'd become the latest beneficiaries of Warner's "Mapchangers" program.
Senate candidate James Webb in Virginia and Bill Winter, who is challenging Rep. Tom Tancredo in Colorado, have already won grand prizes. Last week, Warner put his online activists to work on Webb's behalf, raising more than $300K.

The PAC has already contributed mighty sums to legislative candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, which reflects, in part, Warner's political history. The composition of Virginia's legislature helped Warner win passage of his signature legislative initiatives.

In Iowa, the state senate is tied and in the state House, a Democratic takeover is within the party's reach. [MARC AMBINDER]

Pres. Bush's declassification of the NIE led most of the cable talk last night:

CNN's Quijano: "Bush launched a full-throated political defense, attacking what he called the politically motivated leaking of a classified national intelligence estimate dealing partly with Iraq" ("AC 360," 9/26).

FNC's Baier: "The president pointed out the U.S. was not in Iraq when the country was attacked on 9/11 and then he ticked off a host of other terrorist attacks before that, saying with or without Iraq, terrorists would find an excuse to recruit and gin up support for attacks against the U.S." ("Special Report," 9/26).

CNN's Arena: "Only a little more than three pages that have been declassified. Basically what has been scrubbed, for lack of a better word, are the key judgments of that report. And really no big surprise here" ("Situation Room," 9/26).

Newsweek's Fineman: "They're bailing water, the White House is. I know people who've read the thing in its entirety, and they can't tell me the details, because it's classified, but they say if you read the whole document, it's just as damning, if not more so, and there are other things in there that the White House is not going to want to see" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 9/26).

CNN's Koppel: Pelosi "tried, yet failed, to force the House into a highly unusual secret session to discuss a classified intelligence report on terrorism and Iraq. Both events staged examples of the highly charged political current surging from one end of the capitol to the other on the same day Iraq's president paid a visit. In press conference, after press conference, Democrats worked to keep the focus on what they called the Bush administration's failed policy in Iraq, using recently leaked intelligence report, called an NIE, to bolster their case" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 9/26).

TV CAN'T STAY AWAY FROM THIS RACE

And ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie was on "Hardball" to defend Sen. George Allen (R-VA):

Gillespie: "He was always going to be subject to negative attacks because the fact is he has been a very successful former governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. He is a very effective current senator. He has won every campaign he's ever waged and they don't want to debate the issues with him and so they are going to attack his character."

On the charges against Allen: "I do take him at his word because I have the benefit of knowing the man. And the fact is, this is a man who abhors with every fiber of his being anything that is antithetical to treating people with respect, equal respect regardless of religion, race, background, ethnic background. He was raised in a football family where it was made clear to him that all that matters is what you do and your performance, and the color of your skin has no bearing whatsoever. And I believe that."

On the "N" word controversy: "I believe the people who knew him at the time and say we never heard that, we don't believe that, many people have said so. By the way, Larry Sabato, on your program, said I know that he did. But then today on another network said no, I never actually heard it myself."

MSNBC's Matthews, on Allen: "I think he's going to win, but not because of this" (MSNBC, 9/26).

FNC's Henneberg: "We tried to interview Dr. Ken Shelton today, the man who told SALON.com that Allen used the 'N' word in the early 70's. His wife told us on the phone that, quote, 'They have told him not to talk to FOX.' We haven't been able to clarify who 'they' are and why he has been told not to speak to us" ("Special Report," 9/26). [EMILY GOODIN]

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Today, the liberal echo chamber in Ohio suddenly got louder.

A new Web site, ProgressOhio, is launching with a massive e-mail list and an ambitious goal. It aims to be a hub for grassroots liberal bloggers, a clearinghouse for local causes and information, and a link between opinion drivers in the state and an army of activists.

More broadly, ProgressOhio wants to direct the energy of the liberal blogosphere, already a potent force in Ohio politics, to concrete political and legislative tasks. Yes, it's just another liberal Web site.

But ProgressOhio, set up as a 501(c) 4 organization under the tax code, is the first affiliate of a wildly successful experiment in Colorado, ProgressNow. When gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO) mistakenly implied that the abortion rate among African Americans was 70 percent, Progress Now pounced and within hours of that statement having been published, had sent an e-mail alert to about 100K activists in the state and to dozens of reporters who monitor the site. ProgressNow hammered Beauprez's running mate for sketchy comments about bestiality, driving coverage of that story. It set up BothWaysBob.com, which prompted Beauprez's campaign manager to dismiss the group as a bunch of "bed-wetting liberals."

There are dozens of successful liberals blogs in Ohio but little communication or coordination among them. Liberal net strategists have pondered for a few years about how to strengthen bonds between blogs, and a few successful ventures, like an advertising cooperative, have taken off.

That's the niche Progress Now, founded by Mike Huttner, a former Clinton administration lawyer, aims to fill, nationally.

"Our goal is to be an organizer of the blogs," Huttner said. And if ProgressOhio makes a difference, he hopes to expand the model to other states.

ProgressOhio will be run by Brian Rothenberg, a former communications director for the Ohio Democratic Party. Over the past few months, he's collected more than 170,000 e-mail addresses. At its core, the site will link neighborhood groups to blogs and grassroots activists to like-minded folks in the same area.

The site contains several tools that mimic the organizing model used by the national Republican party. Within a few weeks, users will be able to create their own groups by geography and political concern. Gay rights activists in Akron, for example, can easily draw up a webpage, as can progressives worried about health care in Canton. Users can tag themselves with keywords and will be able to join as many groups as they want. [MARC AMBINDER]

The document lives here.

And here's what strikes us as the key paragraph:

• The Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre for jihadists, breeding resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired on the fight.

Also:

Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.

Also:

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization.

So Dems are going to win it all in November, right? What if they don't? Are the DSCC and DCCC setting up the DeaNC as the fall guy? Oh, and what's this we hear about Terry McAuliffe?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Who knew one little New York Times story was all it took to bring bloggers from the right and left together on an issue as contentious as nat'l security? The consensus is limited admittedly (both sides pressured Pres. Bush to announce at a WH presser this a.m. that officials will declassify the April N.I.E.), but it's important to note that when bloggers do come together, it's usually part of larger efforts towards more transparency and openness in gov't. And they usually succeed. On 9/26, Bush is hosting "bloggers" at the signing of the pork database bill that both the right and left blogosphere pushed hard for.

Read today's Blogometer.

When Forbes magazine released its annual 400 Richest Americans list, we saw more than a few familiar names. We've excerpted the most politically pertinent ones below:

Rank: Person (Estimated wealth)
1: Bill Gates ($53B), a.k.a. the wealthiest man in America, maxed out to Bill Frist's VOLPAC in '04 and '06, and also gave $2,000 to George Allen's campaign.
2: Warren Buffet ($46B) gave to both Democrats and Republicans.
6, 7, 9, 11: The Wal-Mart family, a.k.a. Jim, Christy, S Pobson, Alice and Helen Walton (around $15B each) gave more than $150,000 total to almost exclusively Republicans in 2006.
25: Metromedia Chair John Werner Kluge ($9.1B) gave only one political donation this cycle -- $1,000 to Sen. Chris Dodd's CHRISPAC.
27: Hedge Fund mogul George Soros ($8.5B) gave $88,000 exclusively to Democrats and like organizations this cycle, including one grand to Ned Lamont in June.
44: NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg ($5.3B) is officially the richest politician in America this year.
57: Former Independent Presidential candidate Ross Perot ($4.3B) is a fan of George Allen.
73: Michigan candidate for Governor Dick DeVos' ($3.5) father is funding his son -- highest name on the list running for office this year.
107: The Rales family, namely Mitchell Rales ($2.6B), helped out their kin Josh Rales in his failed Maryland Senate bid.
133: Nebraska Senate candidate Pete Rickett's family ($2.3B) just helped him trigger the Millionaire's amendment in his race. 242: Here's a blast from the past -- Eleventh hour Clinton pardon Marc Rich ($1.5B) is still living well in Switzerland.

[SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.

1. Steele Let The Dogs Out: Despite polls showing a comfortable Ben Cardin lead in MD, the DSCC is up with a new ad against Steele: The ad says "it's nice that" Steele "likes puppies, but he's running for the United States Senate" and he also "loves" Pres. Bush. Steele responded in an ad today: "You knew they were coming. Nasty ads from the Washington crowd. .... I think you deserve straight talk about some real differences."

2. Meanwhile, in TN, another new DSCC slams Bob Corker for talking tough against illegal immigration but allegedly failing to police his own construction company's hiring practices. Corker, in the meantime, has hired GOP ad whiz Fred Davis to help him create spots, which suggests that Corker isn't too peachy about how successfully Harold Ford, Jr. has been tagged as a liberal.

3. In New Jersey, Tom Kean Jr., is airing a 60-second radio spot featuring Hudson Co. "Democrat" Larry Giancola, who says that if Bob Mendendez "does for the state of New Jersey waht he's done for Hudson County, I think we're in trouble." The tagline: "I've had enough of crooked politicians."

4. Sen. Lincoln Chafee is back to touting his independence. From a new ad: "For months, I was attacked by the right for being too liberal. Now I'm being attacked by the left for being too conservative. That puts me in the middle, where I've always been, with you. Only by having the independence and courage to put people before party and solutions over soundbites are we going to get our country back on track."

In some of the nation's most hotly contested Senate battles, Giuliani comes to Santorum's aid while Rendell helps out Casey, and a disillusioned Hudson County resident lashes out at Menendez.

New Jersey: In a new radio ad for Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., a disgruntled Democrat rails against Sen. Robert Menendez (D), the former Union City mayor and state legislator, telling listeners that Menendez "made Hudson County a terrible place to live." The ad is the latest attempt by the Kean camp to capitalize on a history of government corruption and voter mistrust in the Garden State that appears to be hurting Menendez's chances of being elected to his first full term in November. Kean has made the corruption issue a cornerstone of his campaign, casting himself as an "independent reformer" akin to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

< href="/members/campaign/2006/senate/oh.htm">Ohio: It's all about taxes right now in the Buckeye State, where GOP Sen. Mike DeWine and Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown are trading barbs over which one is the real tax-cutter. Brown's new ad complains that DeWine's "been bragging about" a tax cut that "overwhelmingly favored the wealthy." Meanwhile, the incumbent team's new spot criticizes Brown for voting to raise taxes.

Pennsylvania: After a round of attacks on Democrat Bob Casey Jr., Sen. Rick Santorum (R) is again pushing his own record in his ad campaign. One of the incumbent's new ads describes his efforts to save an Air Force base -- and the jobs it provides -- in Pittsburgh, and another stars former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) expressing his support for Santorum. Casey's new spot features a regional political player in Gov. Ed Rendell (D), who calls a recent attack ad from Santorum "trash." The ad invokes former lobbyist Jack Abramoff and faults Santorum for creating the "corrupt lobbying system" he exploited.

Tennessee: Illegal immigration is dominating the Volunteer State's airwaves this week. The Republican National Committee's new ad against Democrat Harold Ford Jr. argues that the congressman has "voted four times against more funding for border agents and against using troops to help protect our borders." The spot also perpetuates a message GOP nominee Bob Corker's campaign began airing recently -- that Ford is the state's most liberal congressman. For his part, Ford has an ad out this week that digs into Corker's past, charging the businessman with employing illegal workers while building an apartment complex in 1988.

Want to learn more? Hotline subscribers get full access to each day's Ad Spotlight, including video of campaign ads from this year's key House, Senate and gubernatorial races, plus an archive of 8500+ ads from the last ten years.

The spot, run by -- you guessed it -- Vernon Robinson -- includes this line.

"Brad Miller spent your money to study the masturbation habits of old men."

The full text:

ANNCR: "What kind of congressman would try to deny our soldiers the body armor they need to save their lives? The answer is your congressman, Brad Miller. That's right, Brad Miller did not vote for the appropriation that paid for improved body armor for our troops. But Brad Miller has no trouble spending your money -- he would just rather spend it on sex. That's right, instead of spending money on sickle-cell research, Brad Miller voted to spend your money to study the sex lives of Vietnamese prostitutes in San Francisco. Instead of spending money on cancer research, Brad Miller spent your money to study the masturbation habits of old men. Brad Miller spent your tax dollars to study something called the "Bisexual, Transgendered and Two-Spirited Aleutian Eskimos," whoever they are. Brad Miller even spent your tax dollars to pay teenage girls to watch pornographic movies with probes connected to their genitalia. Brad Miller pays for sex, but not for body armor for our troops. If Miller had better priorities, you wouldn't be having to hear this." Robinson: "I'm Vernon Robinson, and I approved this message because Brad Miller is out of touch, and soon, he'll be out of Congress" (Hotline sources, 9/26).

Our weekly '06 debate highlight reel -- Hotline's Barbs and Jabs -- is now available on nationaljournal.com:
http://video.nationaljournal.com/barbs.ram

This week: the must-see moments from CT 02, where Simmons and Courtney tangle over Iraq, from WI, where the gubernatorial candidates managed to be polite, and from Minnesota, where everything and the kitchen sink was thrown at Klobuchar.

In a presser this a.m., a frustrated-seeming Pres. Bush ordered DNI John Negroponte to declassify the full National Intelligence Estimate on war on terrorism.

Bush: “I want you to read the document so you don’t speculate on what it says.”

He angrily denounced the motives of those who "leaked" parts of the document to the New York Times and called it an election-year attempt to "confuse" the public.

We can't find an online link, but this article, written by Hotline editor in chief Chuck Todd for Washingtonian, provides some insight into the unique relationship between UVA political scientist Larry Sabato and Sen. George Allen (R-VA).

Pundit vs. Candidate: Does Sabato Know Allen Too Well?

If George Allen is largely unknown to people outside Washington and Virginia, he is well known by at least one political pundit: Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. And Allen partisans are concerned about the role Sabato might play as Allen is introduced to the rest of the country.

Sabato bristles at the idea that he might be tougher on Allen than on other politicians, calling it "hypersensitivity" on the part of Allen supporters. "I asked one tough question in one debate when he was running against Chuck Robb after I had been so tough on Robb for years, and they cried like babies.

Lake Winnipesaukee is turning colder, and the fish are hopping into Gov. Mitt Romney’s net. This morning, Romney’s Commonwealth PAC will announce that Bruce Keough, a 2002 gubernatorial candidate and a former state senator, will chair the PAC’s New Hampshire affiliate. That acquisition comes one day after Tom Rath, a Republican National Committeeman from New Hampshire and key associate of President Bush’s, was named a senior adviser.

For the short month until Election Day, these Republicans will help party candidates in the state. Immediately after, they will begin to plan for Romney’s presidential bid.

New Hampshire Republicans say that Romney, who fortuitously owns a vacation home in the state, has heavily courted Sen. Judd Gregg and his influential chief of staff, Joel Maiola. Both were said to have responded well to the attention, but neither has yet to formally, or even privately, commit to any candidate. In 2000, Maiola was an early advocate of George W. Bush’s and directed his New Hampshire primary campaign. Rath is part of Gregg’s inner circle of advisers.

“Sen. Gregg has been meeting with the line up and is not close to making up his mind,” Maiola said in a brief interview.

Gregg’s father, Hugh Gregg, served as governor from 1952 to 1955. [MARC AMBINDER]

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. You'd Better Watch Yarmuth!: Rep. Anne Northup (R) "unleashed a multimedia barrage." In a new radio and TV ad, Northup says publisher John Yarmuth (D) said "we should abolish Social Security" and cites laws she says Yarmuth supports, such as "lowering the drinking age" and "legalizing marijuana." Yet Yarmuth said of Northup's ad: "There's not one accurate claim."

2. Big Name Star, Big-Time Controversy?: Ex-Redskins QB Heath Shuler may have some explaining to do soon about $69K of belatedly paid taxes from his former real estate firm. Shuler atty. Jason Rudd will "sue to ensure [Shuler's] name is taken off" the business he founded in '98 with his brother. Yet the business' "continued use of his name" could have "an adverse affect on his reputation" (AP).

3. On The Run: What were all of those undecideds thinking in the new IN 08 State Univ. poll? Vanderburgh Co. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) leads Rep. John Hostettler (R) by 15 points, though 21 percent of those surveyed couldn't choose between candidates. Univ. of Evansville prof. Robert Dion thinks they "probably are 'disappointed conservatives' hesitating" to choose Hostettler " because they are unhappy about the conduct of the Iraq war or the economy" (Evansville Courier Press, 9/24).

4. Driving It Home: Rep. Rob Simmons (R) already has aired his second TV ad on his ability to save CT 02 defense jobs. He also attacks ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney (D) in the ad. ANNCR: "Washington would take good paying defense jobs from Joe like candy from a baby." Meanwhile, Courtney's new ad calls Simmons Pres. Bush's "number one supporter" in CT and voted for "tax breaks for Big Oil companies, a failed economic plan, Bush's disastrous policy in Iraq."

5. Aloha, Hirono: Ex-LG, '02 GOV nominee Mazie Hirono (D) may have defeated nine candidates in the Dem primary but what does her marginal win mean in her race against sportscaster/state Sen. Bob Hogue (R)? Despite the fact that analysts think Hirono will have "even more of an advantage than she had in the primary," Hirono is not sure how much this will help. Hirono: "We know that the Republicans are not about to hand this seat over to us" (Honolulu Star Bulletin).

Bill Clinton was all the rage on TV last night. Here's a sampling:

MSNBC's Carlson: "I'm a little shocked by Clinton's behavior here" ("Tucker," 9/25).

Dem strategist Paul Begala: "Oh, that's nothing, yes. Good lord" ("PZ Now," CNN, 9/25).

Ex-Clinton spokesperson Jennifer Palmieri: "I think the president's response was a long time coming. Not from him, per se, but from progressives and people on the left in general" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 9/25).

Dem strategist James Carville: "It might be a legitimate question, but it certainly is a legitimate question to ask back: Why are you asking me and you never asked President Bush?" ("PZ Now," CNN, 9/25).

WH Homeland Security adviser Fran Townsend: "I sort of have to agree with President Clinton when he said, you know, it's not terribly productive to do these backward looks. I will tell you I was a little surprised, frankly, by his remarks, and it is offensive to me, the notion that anyone would suggest -- everybody that I've ever worked with has done their level best when they were in office to fight this war on terrorism" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 9/25).

Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA): "I was in Congress during the Clinton years, and I saw what was going on. I served on the Intelligence Committee, and we did all become aware, including the Clinton administration, of the al Qaeda threat in the mid-90s. And the Clinton administration, specifically George Tenet and Sandy Berger and Madeleine Albright and a few others, were working against this threat" ("Hardball, MSNBC, 9/25).

Boston Globe's Easton: "I do think that there was some calculation to this, just because this is an extremely brilliant, wily politician. And he's got a legendary temper, but we don't see that publicly. ... I just wanted to say I think it wasn't just to energize the base. ... I also think the effect of this enhances his standing -- enhances Hillary's standing with the left where she's weak" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 9/25).

Newsweek's Wolffe: "One of the things that has characterized Democrats, as they've come under attack from Republicans, is, how do they talk about the war, how they talk about national security. So people watching the Clintons very closely, saying, Maybe there's a script here, maybe a message for all Democrats" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 9/25).

GOP strategist Mary Matalin: "If the purpose was to frame the argument for the Democrats for this fall, it completely failed, because all he succeeded in doing was defending his record, and he didn't actually succeed in that" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 9/25).

NPR's Liasson: "Bill Clinton has a temper and we've all seen him explode at various times and little explosions or big ones and this steamed to me to be very genuine. This didn't seem to be premeditated. As a matter of fact, I've never seen him have a premeditated tantrum" ("Special Report," FNC, 9/25).

Newt Gingrich: "I thought Chris was very professional, very friendly, offered to get back to the president's sales pitch on his global initiative, but the president wouldn't let him. And I thought Clinton was as out of control. ... It was a sign of how sensitive he is to the charges that his administration was weak on terror" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 9/25).

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "I think that the president felt he was sandbagged when he walked in there. He'd just come off the best week of his ex-presidency" ("AC 360," CNN, 9/25).

LARRY MAKES US MORE CURIOUS ABOUT GEORGE

UVA's Larry Sabato had strong words about Sen. George Allen (R-VA) on "Hardball" last night:

MSNBC's Matthews: "What about these charges that he actually used the bad language that some of us are familiar with in this country -- in fact, most Americans are -- the bad language about people from another, other background -- did he do it?"

Sabato: "I can't say how frequently he did it, but I don't believe him when he denies never having done it."

More Sabato: "I'm simply going to say that I'm going to stay with what I know is the case. And the fact is that he did use the 'N' word, whether he's denying it now or not. He did use it. It was the '70s, you're right, it was a harsh term, it was an obscenity at this as far as I'm concerned."

Matthews: "How do you know about the 'N' word? How do you know, Larry, about the 'N' word?"

Sabato: "Because there is other evidence that I'm not going to go into on your show, Chris, sorry."

Asked if he heard Allen use the word: "I'm not going to go into any more details" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 9/25).

OPRAH ENDORSES FOR '08

Oprah Winfrey, on the movement for her to run for the WH: "You know what I would say to him, I would say, take your energy and put it in Barack Obama. That's what I would say."

More: "That would be my favorite guy" ("LKL," CNN, 9/25). [EMILY GOODIN]

The Washington Post runs its article on Sen. George Allen's denials of the N-word on page B-01. That's fairly prominent placement.

Why did the Post decide to be a handmaiden to this story?

Probably because the accusations came from multiple, independent-from-each-other on the record sources with (a) specific recollections and verifiable background details. One of the sources was apparently reluctant to come forward, and was pressed to do so only after a colleague forwarded his e-mails to the New York Times and the New Republic. Also: it fits a pattern of conduct attributed -- fairly or not -- to Allen. Also: Larry Sabato, who remains the country's most quoted political scientist.

One prominent Allen supporter we talked to is full of rage. His argument is that this freeding frenzy is profoundly unfair. That Salon is a liberal publication with an agenda. That James Webb's remarks about ethnicity and women have been virtually ignored. That the press is ignoring the contradictions in the story of one of Allen's accusers. That the press is giving literally millions of dollars worth of free media oxygen to Webb's campaign. That the press is betraying its elitism -- its gut-level desire to drive Allen to an early political grave. But this supporter worries most about the effect of these stories on conservatives. Redstate keeps up the fight, but the Weekly Standard's article is more indicative of Beltway opinion.

How can Allen win? He'll go negative on Webb. In a vacuum, negative ads move the chains. But right now, to borrow a football metahpor, Allen has had poor field position for several quarters and can't seem to convert on third downs.

To break out of the metaphor, almost: Changing the momentum of the game is just a lot harder when your own negative ratings are rising. [MARC AMBINDER]

HOTLINE RACE RANKINGS

Races are ranked in order of seats most likely to flip, or change from one party to the other.

Senate Rankings	Governor Rankings	House Rankings
Full Rankings & Analysis Links below lead to individual tip sheets for each state.   1. Pa. (Santorum-R)   2. Mont. (Burns-R)   3. Ohio. (DeWine-R)   4. R.I. (Chafee-R)   5. Mo. (Talent-R)   6. N.J. (Menendez-D)   7. Tenn. (Open-R)   8. Md. (Open-D)   9. Wash. (Cantwell-D) 10. Va. (Allen-R) 11. Ariz. (Kyl-R) 12. Minn. (Open-D) 13. Neb. (Nelson-D) 14. Mich. (Stabenow-D) 15. W.Va. (Byrd-D) 16. Vermont (Open-I) 17. Nev. (Ensign-R) 18. Conn. (Lieberman-D) 19. Hawaii (Akaka-D) 20. Fla. (Nelson-D) Last Updated: Sept. 20	Full Rankings & Analysis Links below lead to individual tip sheets for each state.   1. N.Y. (Open-R)   2. Ohio (Open-R)   3. Colo. (Open-R)   4. Mass. (Open-R)   5. Ark. (Open-R)   6. Md. (Ehrlich-R)   7. Iowa (Open-D)   8. Mich. (Granholm-D)   9. Wis. (Doyle-D) 10. Ore. (Kulongoski-D) 11. Minn. (Pawlenty-R) 12. Nev. (Open-R) 13. Maine (Baldacci-D) 14. R.I. (Carcieri-R) 15. Alaska (Murkowski-R) 16. Ill. (Blagojevich-D) 17. Fla. (Open-R) 18. Calif. (Schwarzenegger-R) 19. S.C. (Sanford-R) 20. Texas (Perry-R) Last Updated: Sept. 21	Full Rankings & Analysis Links below lead to individual tip sheets for each state.   1. Ariz.-08 (Open-R)   2. Colo.-07 (Open-R)   3. Texas-22 (Open-R)   4. Iowa-01 (Open-R)   5. Pa.-06 (Gerlach-R)   6. Ind.-08 (Hostettler-R)   7. Ind.-09 (Sodrel-R)   8. Ind.-02 (Chocola-R)   9. Conn.-02 (Simmons-R) 10. Conn.-04 (Shays-R) 11. N.M.-01 (Wilson-R) 12. Ohio-15 (Pryce-R) 13. Fla.-22 (Shaw-R) 14. Pa.-08 (Fitzpatrick-R) 15. N.Y.-24 (Open-R) 16. Pa.-07 (Weldon-R) 17. N.C.-11 (Taylor-R) 18. Ky.-04 (Davis-R) 19. Va.-02 (Drake-R) 20. Conn.-05 (Johnson-R) Last Updated: Sept. 22

The Brunch is an exclusive Saturday political news digest and tip sheet from the editors of The Hotline.

WHAT'S BREWING

As a candidate for Senator in Louisiana, a state legislator named Tony Perkins received about ten percent of the statewide vote. As a Washington lobbyist, Tony Perkins is a celebrity. To the 1,000 or so pastors and activists attending the Family Research Council’s Washington Briefing this weekend, he is responsible for carrying their voice into the inner sanctums of the White House. As such, to leaders of these state groups, he has enhanced their personal brand.

So he received star treatment: rounds of applause, a harried young entourage, and even a walk-and-talk with 60 Minutes’ Lesley Stahl, who, with camera crew and producers, were filming a segment on “values voters.”

The FRC is not a large organization and it does not have formal state affiliates. The extent to which it drives policy on Capitol Hill and in the White House is debatable. But it certainly is an engine of debate. The FRC has become the to-go group in DC for journalists seeking the social conservative point of view, for television producers seeking a guest, and even is willing to provide its expert on family policy for the Daily Show to mock.

This election year, they're about the “Values Voter." VV might be a term of art and convenience The idea was midwifed from a single number on the 2004 exit poll. Within months, it was conventional wisdom. These VVs, the schema goes, are concerned, primarily, with threats to the family. They like politicians who share their dread and who commit themselves to defending the nuclear unit from attack. Not encroachment. Attack. So -- those gay marriage amendments turned out Bush voters. (Maybe, but in red states without competitive races). Evangelical votes comprised about 40 percent of Pres. Bush’s total. (True, but terrorism was their top issue.) Evangelicals are a growing and potent political force (True, but so are conservative Catholics, and they’re far less tethered to the Republican Party).

Fiction or fact, Perkins has leveraged the concept into a powerful rallying cry for cultural conservatives. So, Republican presidential aspirants flocked to this small conference: Gov. Mitt Romney, Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Sam Brownback and even Sen. George Allen. So did one aspiring majority leader or Speaker: Indiana’s Mike Pence. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales bowed out at the last moment. He was supposed to speak after a panel of state attorneys general at the forefront of the culture war. Every speaker, the who's whos to the whose thats, spoke in the language of threat. Homosexuality; secular liberals who want to ban the bible; weak-kneed Republican leaders in Washington; illegal immigration; terrorism; government; France; George Soros; Nancy Pelosi; homosexuals; gay adoption; taxes; Democrats; activist judges; the liberal media.,

Tony Snow, the White House press secretary took his place. His topic was “defending the family.”

As Snow spoke, a television producer (not from 60 Minutes) carried on his own narration. He rolled his eyes. He sneered when Snow mention 9/11. He whispered sarcastic asides. He, plainly, was not a VV. [MARC AMBINDER]

Who: Gov. Mike Huckabee

Location: Family Research Council's Washington Briefing, Omni Shoreham, DC

Topic: culturally conservative populism

Standing ovations: 2

Theme: What being a Christian means to Mike Huckabee

Applause lines: "I was a person of faith who decided we needed more of us in politics." "Pro-life is not only a passion and concern for us before [a child is] born, it's a passion and concern about that child after he's born." "Until Moses comes down with two stone tablets from Brokeback Mountain saying he's changed the rules, let's keep it like it is." (Huckabee was refering to marriage.)

Playing to the crowd: Mentioned unpopular federal mandates like Real ID, pre-emption of regulatory policies."I was a Baptist pastor before I got into politics." Mentions covenant marriage. But Huckabee mostly did not play to the crowd.

Discordant note: The agenda of the speech was not to pander; it was to challenge. Summoning his inner pastor, he exhorted the crowd to broaden their political agenda and offer solutions for a wide range of human and societal problems. Also: lots of e-Bay anecdotes. "Someone who paid 28,000 for a grill cheese sandwhich that supposedly had the Virgin Mary right on the sandwhich." Also: weird analogy about Katrina levies. "All of us live below sea level, and the levies could break at any moment."

9/11 reference: none

Self-deprecation: "I'm the only thing standing between you and lunch." Also repeated his "I'm a lieutenant governor on the buffet line without a ticket" story.

Obligatory humorous poke at organizer: none.

Blooper: an ex-pastor doesn't bloop.

Staffed by: Kristen Fedewa

[MARC AMBINDER]

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.

1. Case's Closing Arguments: In his final TV appearance before the HI primary, Rep. Ed Case (D) took 30 minutes 9/21 to "clarify" his platform and "what he has called the distortions of the Akaka campaign." Yet he may not have the last word. Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) lent his campaign $25K 9/18 to pay for more ads (Honolulu Advertiser).

2. Another Poll Shows Klobouchar With Double-Digit Lead (But This One In The Teens): In MN, will Hennepin Co. DA Amy Klobuchar's (D) new lead in an independent poll help redirect eyes off blogger Noah Kunin? (Hotline sources).

3. Is Blue Steele Stronger?: Kweisi Mfume son Michael Mfume "linked arms" with LG Michael Streele in MD, as he joined "Steele Democrats" in their debut 9/21. When asked if his father favored his decision, "Mfume said he is his own man. " (Baltimore Sun).

Amidst the coverage of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s frontrunner status and the litany of candidates competing for the opportunity to be the Phil Mickelson to her Tiger Woods, one question has been overlooked: who’s going to run for vice-president?

Right, right, right-- no one runs for vice president. It’s something that happens by default, like buying a mini-van or going to law school. And it’s certainly not a consolation prize which people compete for, let alone this early in the game.

But with this crowded election, and particularly with this frontrunner, a path to the WH could materialize outside the confines of a second place finish in Iowa. Clinton, who somewhat famously places a high premium on political loyalty, is undoubtedly taking notes on which of her fellow WH ‘08ers are hanging her out to dry. She’ll also remember who’s not.

Enter Sen. Barack Obama, whose star studded visit to Iowa last weekend drew a record, 3,500 Dem activists. The reception was precisely the kind Clinton would have received; you know, if she wasn’t “focused on” 06. He’s in the unique position of being able to help-- not hurt-- a Clinton bid.

Partly because no one thinks he’s a candidate and partly because he may not actually be a candidate (we shutter to think), Obama has avoided the public Clinton critiques that have characterized so many WH hopefuls. In the process he may have designed a path to the vice presidency, and ultimately the presidency, that’s about capturing just one voter: Hillary. [NORA MCALVANAH]

If you were one of the very few Democrats in Iowa not to ga-ga over Sen. Barack Obama at Tom Harkin's Steak Fry last week, you're in luck.

Obama is headed back close to the state next Saturday.

He'll campaign for IL 17 candidate Phil Hare and IA 01 candidate Bruce Braley in Moline, just over Mississippi River in IL.

Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs said the events had been planned for Obama's first visit but the scheduling didn't work out. [MARC AMBINDER]

Who: Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)

Location: Family Research Council's Washington Briefing, Omni Shoreham, DC

Topic: same-sex marriage

Standing ovations: three

Theme: Romney learned, in his state, why the "extraordinary" battle for American culture matters in real terms.

Applause lines: "The culture of America is under attack." "Marriage is primary about developing and nurturing our children." "We desparately need a federal marriage amendment that defines marriage as one man and one woman."

Playing to the crowd: Romney classified the clash over cultural values as a major crisis on par with the jihadist threat, the emergence of Asia as a super-power, the country's over-dependence on oil and an overweening federal government. He regailed them with tails about how gays demanded that birth certificates in Massachusetts feature lines for "parent A" and "parent B" instead of "mother and father." (The crowd ooooaahed at that ... to which Romney shook his head and said "Yeah.")

Discordant note: preroration featured a vignette about a male speed skater.

9/11 reference: one.

Self-deprecation: referred to himself as the governor of a "liberal, blue state"

Obligatory humorous poke at organizer: Said that FRC's Tony Perkins asked him whether he liked free speech... and then said Perkins asked whether he'd give a "free speech' at this conference

Blooper: Romney referred to "heterocentrism" when he meant "heterosexism"

Staffed by: Julie Teer, Sally Canfield

See him next in: Iowa next week, where he'll stump for House candidates. [MARC AMBINDER]

As Hewlett-Packard board chair Patricia Dunn is forced from her position amid a scandal in which the company hired private investigators to flush out a leak, HP is set to win the irony of the year award today.

The private investigator used a practice called "pretexting" to get phone records of company board members, reporters and their families, breaking just about every privacy law on the books. CA AG Bill Lockyer (D) has announced a possible criminal investigation into the matter, and it now appears that HP CEO Mark Hurd may have been more involved in the scandal than previously thought. Hurd, once called a Wall Street wunderkind, had helped the company's share price jump dramatically after becoming CEO in 4/05.

Today, the company will hand out the HP/International Association of Privacy Professionals "Privacy Innovation Award," recognizing three groups "that demonstrate high levels of integration of privacy protection throughout their entire business process." Last year's winner? Sprint Nextel.

So, privacy awards while under scrutiny for privacy practices. Great news for the share price, which is down dramatically since yesterday. More bad news for the company? Hurd has scheduled a press conference for today after the bell.

As of this writing, HP's stock has dropped more than 5% today already [REID WILSON].

Good Texan that he is, Rep. Joe Barton (R) had a little fun the other day telling his fellow Commerce committee member, Rep. Albert Wynn (D-MD), about the Lone Star State's most infamous and disputed primary

As picked up by Taegan Goddard over at Political Wire:

Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX): Down in Texas, we had a Democratic primary about 50 years ago that Lyndon Johnson won by 54 votes. And he got the nickname "Landslide Lyndon." We have Mr. Wynn next. He had a little bit of a tussle last week, but he did win. And so, I want to recognize "Landslide Wynn" for any opening statement that he wishes...

Rep. Albert Wynn (D-MD): Well, thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. In fact, they're still counting, but we're quite optimistic. And I did take a couple pages out of Lyndon's book, so if I win, it can be attributed to Texas know-how.

(LAUGHTER)

Barton: I hope not. I hope you win fair and square.

(LAUGHTER)

Wynn: A win is a win.

The new season may have started on the broadcast nets, but cable seemed to be in repeats. Most of the discussion last night remained the interrogation debate, on Hugo Chavez's remarks about Pres. Bush and on Iranian Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

FNC's O'Reilly, in his "Talking Points" memo: "As we predicted, the Senate has made a deal with the Bush administration about how the USA can question suspected terrorists" ("O'Reilly Factor," 9/21).

NBC's Viqueira, on the deal: "Interrogations can go forward under the deal that they have reached today, but the issue all along, of course, was would we have to reinterpret, would this legislation reinterpret the Geneva Convention Article 3 that deals with the treatment of prisoners? They got around that by dealing with the treatment of prisoners through the War Crimes Act" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 9/21).

FNC's Angle: "It's important to note this is only an agreement between the White House and the Senate Republicans you saw there. Most Republicans and all the Democrats have yet to see the details" ("Special Report," 9/21).

CNN's Koppel: "We are far from out of the woods at this stage. It still has to go through the Senate and it faces a tough battle in the House where the House Armed Services chairman, Duncan Hunter, made very clear tonight that he is not signing off right now on the classified intelligence part of the deal that these Republican senators have struck with the White House" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 9/21).

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), on the deal: "What the American people can be assured of is they're as aggressive as necessary, but short of the prohibitions against torture, cruel, and inhumane treatment" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 9/21).

PELOSI'S NOT HAPPY WITH CONGRESS EITHER

House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi was on "NewsHour" last night.

On the interrogation deal: "I haven't seen the particulars of it, but the principles that we have heard in the news report sound very much like legislation proposed by the Democrats last week in the House Armed Services Committee."

On Congress: "This is really a do-nothing rubber-stamp Congress for the president. In a few days, we'll reach the end of the fiscal year, and this Congress has still not passed a budget."

More: "We are doing bits and pieces of an immigration bill without approaching it in a comprehensive, bipartisan way, which is necessary in order to manage the immigration issue. Again, we haven't passed a budget; we haven't even passed all of our appropriation bills. So there's much unfinished business."

Asked if she is surprised by Congress' low approval ratings: "No, I would be among those who would not approve."

Asked if she wants to be Speaker: "I want to have a Democratic speaker."

On the '06 elections: "I think targeting me -- most people don't even know who I am -- is an act of desperation on the part of the Republicans. We're going to keep the focus in a very optimistic way on our new direction" (PBS, 9/21).

MOM'S THE WORD

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) was in the "Situation Room":

On his heritage: "I always knew my mother was Italian and French and a little Spanish, and so I was with my mother across the table. And I asked her. I said, you know, there's these rumors flying around here that you're Jewish or, you know, Jewish bloodlines and so forth. And I asked her, is there anything to this? And I saw her reaction. And she said, yes, there are. And I said, well, why didn't you ever tell? I didn't want to tell you. Do you love me? You won't love me as much. I said, oh, ma, why would that make -- I love you even more. I respect you even more."

Asked if his father knew: "Yes. I found that out, too."

More: "This is more than any sort of political campaign. This is so personal. To think that a person 70 years, 60 years since the Nazis is still having that pain in her, it's still paining her; she still lives in fear of that intimidation, that bigotry, that prejudice, that anti-Semitism, still is fearful in my mother."

He continues: "I'm very proud of my heritage. I'm learning more and more about it. I want to teach this to my children."

More: "I have been a leader for fighting against anti-Semitism and intolerance, but now it's personal. And I'm going to use my time here on Earth to continue to fight for freedom and justice, and to make sure intolerance never rears its ugly head in this country or anywhere else in the world, because it causes a great deal of fear, intimidation, and lessening the opportunities for people in life."

On his reax to the ancestory question in the debate: "I was thinking of my mother. I was thinking as a son, and I wanted to protect my mother and her wishes and the promise I made to her. And I'm glad that she has now released me from that promise. And we, as a family, the Allen family, can now search our records of our history and the lineage" (CNN, 9/21).

BILL'S PICKS

And ex-Pres. Clinton was asked what races besides NY SEN he's watching for '06: "I'm looking at that Senate seat in Virginia between Jim Webb, President Reagan's former navy secretary and now running as a Democrat for the Senate against George Allen. And Harold Ford in Tennessee, that's an interesting race. He's recently pulled even or a little bit ahead. There is a House race in Pennsylvania where Curt Weldon, a 20 year veteran is being opposed by Admiral Joe Sestak, who was a career military man who served in that capacity on my National Security Council staff" ("On the Record," FNC, 9/21). [EMILY GOODIN]

This can't be good news for Randy Graf (R) in AZ 08.

As Sen. John McCain struck a deal with the administration on torture policy today, MA Gov. Mitt Romney was also busy on the Beltway circuit. Romney first gave a speech this morning, discussing his much-ballyhooed initiative on health insurance to a downtown crowd at the Mayflower.

He then headed up to the Hill and joined the House GOP's "Theme Team" for their regular lunch meeting. Chaired by House Conf Vice- Chair Jack Kingston (R-GA), the Team consists of about 85 mostly conservative House GOPers who gather to hatch strategy and gin up ideas on how to get their message across. About 25 members attended today and heard Romney speak about his record in the Bay State, including the health care plan, his efforts on education and the difficulty of being Red in the heart of Blue America. One House source in attendance said that while he did not explicitly discuss '08, he made it "clear he's going to run." After making his pitch, Romney took questions about where he came down on issues ranging from Iraq to stem cell research. The word from those on the Hill is that he answered the questions effectively and made a positive impression on the members.

This is not the first time Romney has sat down with congressional GOPers, nor has he been the only '08'er to begin the courtship process, but, as we said the other day, is it still only '06?

Btw, Romney is overnighting in DC as he speaks to another group of conservatives, the Family Resarch Council, tomorrow morning. Also addressing FRC's Values Voter Summit are AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and Sens Sam Brownback (R-KS) and George Allen (R-VA).
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Duking It Out: Ex-State Rep. Randy Graf's (R) picture, featured on David Duke's website, provoked a written response from DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel. Emanuel: "Graf's ties to the white supremacy movement do not end with David Duke's endorsement" (Hotline sources).

2. No Bass-ing Him Around: In his first NH 02 TV ad, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) said he "led the fight to oust" ex-Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX), "may not get invited to many dinner parties," but "no party" tells him "how to vote" (Hotline sources).

3. An Ethics Comeback: The DCCC's going after GOPers' ethics. Rep. John Hostettler's (R) attacked in an IN 08 ad for "making it easier for special interests to pay for meals and golf trips" and voting "to raise his own pay -- again." Assembly Speaker John Gard (R) in WI 08 doesn't get off any easier in an ad called "Doubt." ANNCR: "Gard even said there's no doubt lobbyists influence him" (Hotline sources).

4. Sure About Sherwood? Although Rep. Don Sherwood in PA 10 is facing the "toughest challenge of his political career," he's "surprisingly sanguine" ( New Republic, 10/2).

5. Just Call Him Rudy: In his new MN 01 ad, teacher/Nat'l Guard veteran Tim Walz (DFL) says he's an "everyday hero" and "not a politician" (Hotline sources).

complete with -- we assume -- an Oval Office signing ceremony.. (take that, Mitt!)...

The knives are out for Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

Just an example of how Democrats are messaging against Pres. Bush in the states. Here's one side of a postcard that went to voters in Washington State's 8th Congressional District.

It worked for Richard Nixon in 1972 and Gray Davis in 2002. It seems to be working for Dems this year in a key AZ House race. It didn't work for House GOPers in OH or Senate Democrats in RI (although it might have, if they'd done more of it). Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) did it recently in MA and this week, we learned, it worked for her. To find out what "it" is, and how it's affecting the '06 midterm campaigns, check out Hotline senior editor John Mercurio's new "PolitiScope."

It's true that the Republicans have an overall spending advantage heading into October.

But will Republicans really have a $50 million advantage over Democrats on Get Out The Vote spending? Maybe not.

In fact, national Dem committees have transferred more than $30 million to state parties since the beginning of the year. The majority of that money will pay for GOTV. Also: the DNC has spent more than $7M upgrading its database of state voter files and adding reams of consumer information. In most competitive states, the party's coordinated committee -- that's the roundtable for election decision making -- will have access to much better data than they did in 2002. The caveat: When we last checked, Republican state parties had about $12 million more to spend than Democratic state parties.

Don't forget the unions. Their goal is to turn out union members for Democrats. The AFL-CIO will spent $40 million. The SEIU, part of the Change to Win coalition, will probably spend in excess of $20 million. Other unions will spend millions of their own money. Also: outside groups. We've written about America Votes members and their multi-million dollar voter modeling projects in several competitive states. If the September Fund, run by ex-Media Fund pres. Erik Smith, ever gets off the ground, it might be able to direct even more

Of course, one lesson from '04 was that quality trumps quantity. The Democrats, America Coming Together and organized labor dumped thousands more volunteers in the competitive states than Republicans. But the person-to-person, neighbor-to-neighbor coalitions model that the RNC and the Bush campaign used in about 16 states was far more efficient.

In all, it's likely that both parties' spending on turnout will be, roughly, equal. But whereas Republicans have mastered the art of microtargeting, Democrats are playing catch up. For Dems, ’06 is both a test run and a full launch.

Here are some more details: so far this cycle, the DSCC has sent more than $14.4 million to state parties. That almost matches what the Democratic National Committee has transferred -- a little more than $15.2 million. By contrast, because campaign operations are centralized in the Republican National Committee, more than 85% of the money directed to state parties has come directly from the RNC -- about $14.2 million.

Both the DCCC and the DSCC will work with coordinated campaign tables in competitive states on voter turnout. Both committees didn't want to be caught with pants down on Election Day, so they started early. By the beginning of August, the DSCC had already sent some $10 million to states with competitive senate races. All those funds were earmarked for voter contact and Election Day turnout. [MARC AMBINDER]

Today, the Daily Troika becomes our respository of daily '08 related buzz, appended with our own reporting and analyses. We'll continue to focus on the three major early caucus/primary states.

SC: We speculated yesterday that David Wilkins, an ambassador and Bush SC '00 chair, is angry enough at Sen. Lindsey Graham's iconoclasm on detainee legislation as to be seriously considering a primary challenge. Wilkins told Dan Hoover, though, that he's staying in Canada until '09 and that his first loyalty is to Pres. Bush. A serious primary challenge to Graham would pose problems for Sen. John McCain in the state, and many McCain opponents are trying to gin one up. Stay tuned. Hoover's article makes window-pane clear that many GOP county chairs in SC are willing to support a challenge to Graham.

NH: Visiting the state over the next few days: Sen. Evan Bayh, Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner, Gov. Bill Richardson and Gov. Tom Vilsack. And Elizabeth Edwards stops by on 9/28.

NH: Sorry: "Restraining order against Bush denied" (Nashua Telegraph).

IA: Yes, the man still has national political ambitions. Ex-PA Gov/ex-DHS Sec. Tom Ridge (R) is scheduled to headline the IA GOP's annual Ronald Reagan Dinner 10/28 (Des Moines Register).

Here's another example of how Dems this cycle have produced their television ads with a harder edge and are willing to kick Republican candidates in the groin.

The DSCC is up today with a spot bashing Sen. Conrad Burns for his outre remarks about firefighters.

Recall the DSCC's ad against Sen. Mike DeWine, where his performance on the Senate intel committee was criticized, and an ad slamming TN SEN candidate Bob Corker for a problem with 9/11 calls in Nashville while he was mayor.

The numbers in all these races are either not moving -- or they are trending toward the Democratic candidate. Ads like these work.

TV went presidential last night:

Pres. Bush sat down with CNN's Blitzer:

Bush: "Frankly, if anybody thinks there's not an enemy coming to attack us, they just don't see the world the way it is."

More: "Osama bin Laden is in hiding and we're still spending a lot of time trying to find him. But the key thing that the American people have got to know is that security comes not only with getting him -- which I'm convinced we will -- but also doing other things to protect them. One is to dismantle al Qaeda. Two is to listen to phone calls if al Qaeda's calling to the United States and respond to that. Three is to get information so we can prevent attack. Getting bin Laden is important, but putting things in place, putting procedures in place that protect you is equally important, and we're doing both."

Blitzer, asking about al Qaeda: "If you had good actionable intelligence in Pakistan where they were, would you give the order to kill them or capture them?"

Bush: "Absolutely."

On Iran: "Our position is very clear to the Iranians, that if they want to sit down with American officials, that they first must verifiably suspend their enrichment program. They know our position, the world knows our position, and I clarified it at the United Nations over the past couple of days."

On Iraq: "I fully recognize it's still dangerous and there's more work to do. The enemy has got the capacity to get on your TV screens by killing innocent people, and that should speak volumes to the American people about the nature of these people we face."

Asked if he was considering dealing with Saddam before 9/11: "I wasn't in office long before 9/11." More: "It was 9/11/2001 and I swore in in January of 2001."

Blitzer, noting an interview he did with Bush before the 2000 IA caucus: "The weapons of mass destruction issue, in your mind, even as a candidate running for president, was a trigger potentially that could lead to war."

Bush: "I viewed Saddam Hussein for what he was, a threat. He was declared a state sponsor of terror ... by previous administrations."

Asked why it's taking so long to secure our borders: "It's a long border. ... It takes a lot of manpower and new equipment to enforce that border."

More: "What they're talking about in the House and the Senate is a temporary step. If you're question is, will I stop trying to push for a comprehensive reform? The answer is, no, I won't stop trying to push for comprehensive reform" (CNN, 9/20).

And ex-Pres. Clinton stopped by "LKL":

On Laura Bush: "She's had an interest that Hillary and I both have shared for a long time in all the problems facing kids, especially young girls, in the developing world. And once you get into it, first you start saying, well, I want these kids to get more education. That's self-evident in poor countries. And we particularly have to educate girls."

Asked if he saw Al Gore's movie: "I did. It's terrific. I called him and told him it was great. And, I said you know, Al, my favorite chart was the very last one. You remember, it's about his lecture? So, his last chart is, here's greenhouse gas emissions, here's where they could be, here's all the things you can do. I said, you need to make a second movie out of that last chart. And, he's doing it I think. He's going to make another movie."

Asked if Hillary Clinton is running for the WH: "I don't know yet. But, if I did know, I wouldn't tell you because I think it's so important for her to make the decision at an appropriate time."

CNN's King: "She'll make it without your input?"

Clinton: "No. She'll make it with my input. But, I should be giving it to her and not anybody else. I'll say what I've said until I'm blue in the face. I think it would be an error for her to think about this now until she is reelected and has a chance to get a sense of the lay of the land and what her options are for service in the Senate, and what the presidential options are. That's what I believe. So I wouldn't even discuss it with her now."

More: "The second thing I want to say is if she did decide to run, I have no idea if she would win. You know, she would be the immediate favorite, but there's a million things that can happen. There's only one thing I know with absolute conviction. If she got elected, she'd be fabulous. I don't know if she's going to run, I don't know if I want her to run, I don't know if she'd win if she ran. She would be a magnificent president. I do know that."

On CT SEN: "It's a complicated thing. ... Most of the independent voters are against our Iraq policy, but most of the Republican voters are for it. So it just depends on how many Republican votes Joe gets, as opposed to the Republican nominee, and how many independent and Democratic votes Lamont gets. It's really sort of an unpredictable race."

More: "I don't have the same view of this as some people do. My view is Connecticut is an unmitigated blessing for the Democrats because Lieberman has said if he wins he's going to vote with us to organize the Senate" (CNN, 9/20).

THE REST OF THE EVENING

Other topics on TV were the debate over interrogation techniques and Venezuelan Pres. Hugo Chavez calling Bush "the devil." Some highlights:

MSNBC's Shuster: "Bush met with Republican congressional leaders at the White House amidst new signs that GOP infighting over terror detainee legislation is even deeper than has been publicly acknowledged" ("Hardball," 9/20).

Washington Post's Milbank: "You talked about the family squabble. It's really entering a domestic violence phase here now" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 9/20).

FNC's Rosen: "In his 25 minutes on the world stage, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez spent most of his address before the UN General Assembly demonizing President Bush literally" ("Special Report," 9/20).

SENATE MANIA

There was also a lot of talk on SEN races:

VA SEN candidate Jim Webb (D) was on "Hardball" and MSNBC's Matthews asked him: "Do you have paid
bloggers and are they pushing this story about Allen's Jewish grandparent?"

Webb: "I did not know that this would even be the subject of a discussion with you when I agreed to come on your show. Dick Waddams is part of a Karl Rove method of conducting political campaigns. He worked for Karl Rove for several years. This is clearly an attempt to turn something around onto us that has nothing to do with what we are doing in this campaign. This is absurd."

Asked if Allen was tring to hide his ancestory: "I have no comment on that" (MSNBC, 9/20).

FNC's Cameron profiled the NJ SEN race: "New Jersey has been plagued by a number of Democratic scandals in recent years. And while Menendez has not been charged with wrongdoing, the mere existence of an investigation could be enough to undo his reelection and with it Democratic hopes of reclaiming the majority" ("Special Report," 9/20).

And Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) was on "Hannity & Colmes" where the discussion focused on immigration:

Santorum: "I don't think that we need to go to amnesty. I think we can handle this problem without giving people who have broken the law the right to be citizens in this country" (FNC, 9/20). [EMILY GOODIN]

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

*In what marks the beginning of the beginning of GOTV preparation, the RNC has launched a "new" set of corresponding e-tools to go with its ground efforts (For more about the field operation, read these tips from the NRCC) The e-tool triumvirate includes: Setting up a personal GOP e-mail list, developing a local volunteer team, and hosting a GOP House Party.

To be fair, the tools aren't completely "new" because the RNC has used very similar setup and format in the past for its MyGOP and volunteer portals. But one new and interesting feature is the ability to see who in your neighborhood is registered with the GOP with full name, address and phone numbers. This not only hints that the RNC is way ahead of the field in terms of correlating its e-mail list with its voter files, but also show guts in how much control they're willing giving anyone with an internet connection. The question is, will this bother a the timid conservative who doesn't want the super-activist knocking on their door and saying they got their contact info from the RNC? Maybe it's a risk to put this much information online -- just as MySpace about that one.

Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-SC) outspoken opposition to Pres Bush on the torture issue has elevated what was a low hum to an increasingly noisy buzz about the possibility that the freshman senator will draw a primary opponent in '08. The smart money has for some time been on Treasurer Candidate Thomas Ravenel making the race. Ravenel, a developer, offers a name with deep roots in SC politics and deep pockets to match. But he's recently made noises leading many Palmetto State GOPers to believe he may not be inclined to make the race.

The new name being bandied about now to take on Graham? Ex-House Speaker and current Amb to Canada David Wilkins (R). Wilkins, who like Graham comes from the Upstate, is extremely close to the Bushies, having co-chaired the president's SC campaign in both '00 and '04. He was also a Ranger in '04.

Many in the state have thought that Wilkins would bide his time and run for governor in '10, but conservatives there want even more a reliable supporter of their president in Strom Thurmond's old seat. As one well-connected activist put it," there is no one who stands up for George W. Bush more than David Wilkins does."
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

The most interesting primary you've never heard of will take place on Saturday, when Hawaii Democrats will decide whether to replace two-term Senator Daniel Akaka with Rep. Ed Case.

For the most part, this contest has been off the national media radar because Hawaii is too far away from the mainland for political reporters to parachute in for a couple of days (it's two long flights from the East Coast), and even if they were inclined to make the trip, no editor would green light the considerable expense of sending them to an island paradise in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

There's another reason to overlook this race -- the eventual winner is all but certain to win the seat in November, so it will have no effect on which party controls the Senate.

Still, this is as fascinating an election as will occur in 2006, largely because it offers a revealing look into a curious and amber-preserved political culture. Not much has changed in Hawaii politics since the early 1960s, when an ethnically diverse Democratic machine powered by unions and World War II veterans like Daniel Inouye ousted the white Republican business oligarchy, and this race shows just how committed the party establishment is to keeping the status quo.

The machine elected every governor from 1962 until 2002 and, in another testament to its remarkable durability, has ensured that no incumbent member of Congress has ever been defeated for reelection. Only five men have held the Senate seats since Hawaii first attained statehood in 1959 -- Inouye and fellow WWII vet Akaka among them. The machine's only concession to political modernity appears to be the substitution of unionized public employees in place of the longshoremen and sugar and pineapple industry workers who once provided the organizational muscle. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Not Running Away: In CT 04, Pres. Bush is holding a private $15K/per couple fundraising event for GOPers. Rep. Chris Shays (R) said he will attend (Hotline sources, 9/20).

2. Gabby In Good Shape: If ex-state Rep. Randy Graf (R) wants to catch up with ex-state Sen. Giffords (D), he'll need 19 more points to match her in a new independent AZ 08 poll (Hotline sources, 9/20).

3. Taking Out The Trash: Will the "red-hot" race in PA 06 between Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) and atty Lois Murphy (D) cool down or will the question of the day become "who will pick up the trash" in Reading? (Philadelphia Inquirer, 9/20).

4. Simmons' Trump Card: Ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney (D) won't let Rep. Rob Simmons (R) enjoy smooth sailing with his new TV ad in CT 02. ANNCR: "Rob Simmons helped save the sub base and Simmons is working to build two subs a year here. What's Courtney done?" (Hotline sources, 9/20).

5. The Race To The Bottom: In MN 02, Rep. John Kline's (R) staffer apologized for Kline's staffer's lack of PC language (Minneapolis Star Tribune, 9/20).

We know all about the 2006 Senate races, but what about '08? Hotline State Editor Quinn McCord delves into the future of the Senate and advises GOPers who to pick to take over for NRSC chair Elizabeth Dole.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The most contentious battle in South Dakota has nothing to do with elected office. But expect voters to come out in droves on Nov. 7 anyway.

The reason: Referred Law 6, a ballot measure that would enact the tightest restrictions on access to abortion in the country. The legislation permits abortions only when the life of the mother is imperiled, and when it was signed into law by South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds (R) earlier this year, it sparked a furor in the national pro-choice movement.

A group called the South Dakota Campaign for Healthy Families released a TV ad Monday reminding viewers of the most controversial aspects of the bill. "Should a woman who's the victim of rape or incest be left with no option?" an announcer asks. "What about the mother whose health would be seriously threatened?"

It is reasonable to assume that the law would be ruled prima facie unconstitutional by lower courts. When the court last considered the central holdings of Roe v. Wade, in 1992, a plurality declared that exceptions must be made "for the preservation of the life or health of the mother." As a result, most state abortion laws do just that, as well as provide exceptions in the cases of rape or incest -- politically popular exceptions supported by President Bush.

But the legislation did not immediately wend its way through the judicial system as its backers expected. Rather, opponents used a state law provision allowing voters to have the final say. And it seems likely South Dakotans will say nay: A Mason-Dixon poll conducted in late July found voters opposed the ban, 47 percent to 39 percent. The number of supporters shot up to 59 when exceptions for rape or incest were included in the bill.

A group backing the ban, VoteYesForLife.com, would not say whether it planned on releasing ads in the run-up to the November vote. But a statement released Monday sought to pick apart the ad and charged that the law would give "the additional option of over the counter sales of the so-called 'morning after pill.'" The statement did not say that the option is available to victims of rape or incest only, with a doctor's approval.

Want to learn more? Hotline subscribers get full access to each day's Ad Spotlight, including video of campaign ads from this year's key House, Senate and gubernatorial races, plus an archive of 8500+ ads from the last ten years.

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) wants you to know: he thinks the Bush tax cuts for the richest Americans, enacted during an expensive war and with rising federal budget deficits, were "morally wrong and economically wrong" and that he would indeed support their repeal.

Warner, in an interview with The Hotline this a.m., clarified his comments Monday in Iowa, which were reported by the Des Moines Register. Warner said he did not mean to suggest that Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) was wrong to urge the repeal of those tax cuts benefiting the richest two percent of taxpayers.

Instead, he said, he was responding to a question about the way Kerry's campaign sold that message.

"My comment was, we shouldn't [begrudge] folks' aspirations to be successful, but with success comes responsibility, and we've got to have a tax code that's fair." More Warner: "The Kerry position was right but [the] concern is, how do you make the case to the American people?" Sometimes, said Warner, Democrats "appear as anti 'people-being-successful.' But with that success comes a sense of responsibility and fairness."

In Iowa, Warner had said that "Even though the Bush tax cuts only applied to the top 2 percent of Americans, what I think the Kerry campaign missed was that the other 98 percent of Americans still aspired to get to the point in their life where they could qualify for the tax cuts." The Register wrote that Warner "stopped short of calling for the immediate repeal of cuts to the top income tax rates enacted in 2001 and 2003. Instead, he supports letting the cuts for top income brackets expire in 2011. He would consider keeping in place the cuts to middle and lower-income brackets."

Warner raised $1B in revenue off VA's '04 tax reform, which reduced the sales tax on consumer goods, cut the income rax rate for some brackets, and raised taxes on cigarettes, real estate sales and, by a half a percent, the consumer sales tax itself."

In his Hotline interview, Warner said that comprehensive tax reform at a national level would entail taking a look at "federal spending, government reform and it's going to take looking at the revenue side." If Democrats take control of the Senate, Warner said they should "definitely" vote to repeal the "high level" cuts while possibly keeping "some of the middle income tax cuts in place."

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), the NRCC's liaison to the RNC for turnout, sent the following letter to members of the House Republican caucus. He writes: "However effective the RNC will be, its GOTV effort needs to be supplemented
and reinforced by every member of our House Republican team."

He asks Ann McCord, the NRCC's field director in '94 and Tom Hockaday, a veteran consultant, to write a tip sheet for GOP candidates.

Both Cole's letter and the tip sheet are below the fold.

SC: Forget about the Dems. The real action in SC is now within the GOP. Almost sorta like the pre-civil rights South when the Dem primary was tantamount to election. Here's a good primer, courtesy of the Spartanburg Herald-Journal.

Call it Republicannibalism. With not enough Democrats around to make a good snack, Republicans have turned to eating their own. Prosperity, says Winthrop University political science professor Scott Huffmon, is the root cause. The same conflicts existed when Republicans were in the minority, Huffmon said, but they took a backseat to the goal of overthrowing the Democrats. "With the Republican Party being so dominant, all these minor fissures are opening up into great gulfs," Huffmon said. "It's the curse of power -- all the things that were secondary and tertiary when a party is in the minority become large divisions when they come to power."

SC: A major gun rights activist in South Carolina declares: "Friends, Mike Huckabee is the real deal."

MI: Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America now has the GOP's Senate nominee from Michigan in 2002, Andrew Raczkowski, Allegan Co. GOP chair Gerry Hildenrband, and MI GOP secretary Hank Fuhs. All will serve as co-chairs of the PAC's Veterans Organizational Committee.

IA: Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) echoed a GOP refrain, saying: "It's been five years without a terrorist attack on our country" (Quad City Times).

If you happened to miss the election returns from Missouri's 3rd Congressional district in 2004, you might be surprised by the ending of "Can Mr. Smith Still Go To Washington?" The documentary film follows political newbie Jeff Smith on his primary campaign against political heir Russ Carnahan in the race to take over the district represented by Dick Gephardt for 28 years. The former majority leader often serves as poetic symmetry for Smith's zero-name ID campaign, whose story is told in the summer of 2004 ironically just after Gephardt, the son of a milkman, loses the Democratic primary for President for the third time.

Smith, a 29-year-old political science professor, starts out with an inexperienced and small staff and another guy named Smith on the ballot. But like any movie for which you already know the ending (put this under the "Titanic" and "Pearl Harbor" category), the film is all about the journey. Ten thousand VHS cassettes, 500 volunteers and countless cell phone air time minutes later, Smith wages a formidable, albeit amateurish, campaign against the most powerful name in Missouri Democratic politics. The irony, as our very own in-house pundit Chuck Todd says in the opening, is that a hundred years ago Dick Gephardt would have been president under the way politics "used to work." Mr. Smith doesn't need to stretch very far to show the parallel that a hundred years ago, Jeff Smith would have been a sure thing for Congress.

The film beats you over the head with its David vs. Goliath storyline, but its cinematic elements carry the story through all 82 minutes of the campaign's emotional roller coaster. The original music and cinematography are certainly better than The War Room, the film that has long set the bar for political documentaries. But unlike the story of Bill Clinton's '92 campaign and unfortunately for us cynical political junkies, Mr. Smith is too high on idealism (cue the motivational speeches to teary college students) and less focused on the intricacies of the campaign. For us, it would have added so much to the story to see just how a real-life candidate used "grassroots" in the practical application instead of rhetorical sense that we hear from every other suit that walks through our doors. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Lots of talk last night about Pres. Bush's speech to the U.N., particularly his conflict with Iranian Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

CNN's Malveaux: "It was billed as a heavyweight match. In one corner, the man representing what Iran calls the Great Satan. In the other corner, a leader of what the U.S. calls the Axis of Evil. As it turned out, the two were never in the same ring. They did not even bump into each other in the busy hallways" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 9/19).

MSNBC's Shuster: "What was so interesting today is you saw a very different stylistic difference today in the way the president is dealing with Iran versus the way he was dealing with Iraq" ("Hardball," 9/19).

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "The best thing that happened for President Bush today was the Iranian president's speech. President Ahmadinejad was so hostile and harsh, that I'm sure that many Americans found in him a confirmation of what the president has been saying. This is a dangerous fellow, coming from a dangerous country" ("AC 360," CNN, 9/19).

'08ERS TAKE THE STAGE

Several potential WH candidates got their own TV time last night:

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), on Bush's speech: "The president, I thought, did a pretty good job. The two things that impressed me most about the president, one had nothing to do with Iran, it had to do with his call for action on Darfur" ("LKL," CNN, 9/19).

More: "The thing that I liked what the president did -- and I wish, quite frankly, he would do it more -- he spoke directly to the Iranian people. ... That's always perplexed me why we're unwilling to speak directly with the Iranians and with the Iranian government so at least our side of the argument gets into the Iranian people who are more likely to, once knowing our position, be more empathetic to it, and possibly not revolt or anything, but put pressure upon their own government. And I think the president essentially talking over the heads of the Iranian leadership to the Iranian people was a very positive thing."

On Iraq: "The tendency has been in this administration to take a very good idea -- democratization and democracy -- and think it can be imposed by force or think it can come about as a consequence of a single event, not having built democratic institutions. What the effect has been in the so-called democratization that's taken place in other parts of the Middle East is that we have taken militarized groups and legitimized them" ("NewsHour," PBS, 9/19).

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), on Bush's speech: "It was conciliatory. The tone was good, but it was the same hard line policy. I wish he'd had a little more flexibility when it came to talking to Syria about resolving some of the Middle East problems with Hezbollah, with Hamas. I wish he'd appointed a Middle East peace envoy."

Asked if he's running for the WH: "I don't know about that. I'm just running for re-election. But I want to tell you that that security issue is going to work for Democrats, and we do have a plan on Iraq" ("LKL," CNN, 9/19).

Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist, on the interrogation debate: "We're talking about very legal issues, but the bottom line is, is that we are going do away with a program that has saved American lives if we don't do this right. It's very clear that the president's proposal will not do away with that program by giving specific definitions" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 9/19).

More: "I and the overwhelming majority of Republicans are with the president of the United States."

On immigration reform: "I'm faced with the reality that I have about six more legislative days in this Congress before the elections. And, so, I'm taking a bill that has broad bipartisan support and that is securing our borders. Made the decision last night, taking it back to the floor of the Senate tomorrow, so that we can have that debate. I look at it as a border security first, not border security only. Thus, people who believe in comprehensive reform can agree to that, and say, yes, we can address the other in the future, and those who say, no, the only thing important is border security, again, should be able to vote for that" ("Situation Room," CNN, 9/19).

Asked if he could beat Hillary Clinton in WH '08: "I am not sure what I'm going be doing in the future. I think a Republican candidate who wants to secure America's homeland, secure America's values and secure America's prosperity will beat her."

MSNBC's Matthews: "There is probably going be two separate contests for the Republican support next year, the people who are vying to become true successors to President Bush, basically continuing his mandate and his general philosophy. And those running as mavericks, perhaps Senator McCain, perhaps Rudy Giuliani, perhaps Mitt Romney. I am guessing that you and Senator Allen would fit into the category of people running to maintain the tradition of President Bush. Is that fair?"

Frist: "I guess your supposition may be right, at least about me. I have great confidence in the president of the United States" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 9/19).

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), asked if he's running for the WH: "I don't think anybody wants to take on the problems of America but I think anybody who would think about it would consider a real honor."

On Iraq: "I wouldn't presume to present a plan different than that of the president. But I can tell you that I believe he was right to take the war on terror on an aggressive front rather than a defensive front" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 9/19). [EMILY GOODIN]

Washington / Massachusetts Primaries

Former Clinton DoJ official Deval Patrick took the MA Gov race tonight, as AG Tom Reilly conceded close to 9:45 pm. A Patrick spokesperson said businessman/'02 LG nom. Chris Gabrieli is preparing his concession speech.

Massachusetts primaries are closed. The state's Secretary of the Commonwealth's office doesn't report results until they're official, so get your unofficial results from the Boston Globe.

With 885 of 2166 precincts reporting (that's 40.86% in):

Deval Patrick:         47.16%
Chris Gabrielli:       29.23%
Tom Reilly:            23.60%

Election Day Highlights:

Sen. Maria Cantwell                  91.1%
Atty Hong Tran                        4.7%
Frequent candidate Mike the Mover     2.0%

Heading to Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin's steak fry, Sen. Barack Obama makes some serious waves. But is he for real, or just the ultimate '08 tease?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

"We will be in the majority," said NRCC chairman Thomas Reynolds (R-NY). "You can count on it."

An upbeat Reynolds held court with reporters this afternoon at the NRCC's headquarters. Reynolds said the committee would report more than $36 million on hand tomorrow, having raised $8.5 million in August. The NRCC's independent expenditure arm is paying for television ads in 18 districts, Reynolds said.

Reynolds' confidence that Republicans would be able to hold its majority did not extend to a willingness to predict the outcome of any individual races. At points, he betrayed concern. He said New Mexico's Heather Wilson is involved in "one of our toughest races" against Democrat Patsy Madrid. He noted the NRCC had begun to run ads in Indiana's 2nd district, where Rep. Chris Chocola faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Joe Donnelly. "We're watching the three races very closely," Reynolds said of IN 02, and races in two Southern Indiana districts.

Reynolds refused to personally appeal to Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) to resign from the House before November. He said it was doubtful that any members have been in touch with Ney, who is in alcohol rehab. Yesterday, the Republican chosen to fight for Ney's Ohio 18 seat, State Sen. Joy Padgett, demanded Ney's resignation, as did her Democratic challenger, Zack Space.

Asked which races he considered bellwethers, he pointed South. "If Anne Northup comes back," he said of the incumbent in Kentucky's 3rd CD, he'd be sitting pretty. Polls close in Kentucky at 7:00 pm ET. "If she doesn't, I'll be in for a long night."

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Countdown For Chocola: In IN 02, '04 nom./atty Joe Donnelly's (D) ahead of Rep. Chris Chocola (R) by 8 points in a new independent poll (Hotline sources, 9/19).

2. No, Ney, Never?: Rep. Bob Ney's (R) gave up two House cmte posts, as state Sen. Joy Padgett's (R) called for his "immediate resignation" in OH 18 (Columbus Dispatch, 9/19).

3. Raining On His Parade: Adj. Gen. Martha Rainville (R) is only down three points in VT AL against state Sen. Peter Welch (D) in a new American Research Group (R) poll (Hotline sources, 9/18).

4. Mano A Mano: In their first debate 9/18, Rep. Rob Simmons (R) and ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney (D) "sparred" over Iraq and health care (New London Day, 9/19).

5. The Money Man: Rep. Don Sherwood (R) and Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) are getting a little help from the GOP. Sen. John McCain's (R) campaigned with Johnson in CT 05 (News -Times, 9/19) and VP Dick Cheney's fundraised for Sherwood in PA 10 (Wilkes-Barre Times Leader, 9/19).

We'll leave it for others to consider the many policy implications in the torture debate, but what leaped off the page to our eyes was something very much political: The until-now sub rosa campaign between Sen. John McCain (R) and MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has burst out into the open.

For months, the two '08 frontrunners have issued dueling press releases and offered selective press leaks touting their early "leadership teams" in such early primary states as IA, NH, SC and MI. There have also been more direct, if subtle, jabs. In July, McCain's team crowed about signing up UT Gov. Jon Huntsman (R), who hails from one of the most prominent Mormon families in America. In June, Romney spent a weekend in AZ, headlining a funder for the state party, but also keynoting an event for Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio, whom McCain has tangled with. Arpaio, known nationally for his unique and controversial prison methods, said he was undecided about who he'd back for '08 but had nice things to say about Romney.

The clever back-and-forth came to halt Sunday, when Adam Nagourney, the NYT's chief political reporter, got Romney on the phone and on the record. “I am foursquare behind the president on this," Romney, said referring to McCain's dispute with Pres Bush over the torture issue. "I believe that we should do everything possible to support those people at the front line who are responsible for enforcing the war on terrorism." But Romney wasn't done. Asked if this was the "sharpest" area of disagreement with McCain, Romney said: " No. There are a number of things. We have different views on McCain-Feingold, differing views on immigration policy, differing views on the interrogation of terrorists." Perhaps looking to soften the blow, he then offered, "There are also many other areas where we see eye to eye."

The senator, wrote Nagourney, hit back "tartly." McCain: “He doesn’t have a vote."

You woulda thought it was September of '07, not '06.

But there is more to the WH '08 side of this story.

Today, McCain woke up to find stories in both the Post and LA Times looking at the political fallout of his battle, or "discussion" as the WH and McCain's camp would have it, with Bush. Perhaps more politically notable, a similar story ran in The State, SC's largest and most important newspaper, on Sunday. Although his fellow maverick, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) defended McCain to his home-state paper, SC GOP chair Katon Dawson was quoted as saying the state is "certainly Bush country" and while "John McCain thinks he's right" on the issue, "people on the ground think they're wrong," referring to both McCain and Graham. Or, as another SC GOP activist put it to us today, "we elected George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, NOT John McCain and Lindsey Graham."

It is far too early to hold up one issue, particularly one where McCain and Bush could still reach consensus, as being even potentially relevant in primary still well over a year away. But what is notable about this debate is what has not happened. While such staunch McCain allies as Weekly Standard editor have conceded that the issue will hurt McCain politically, we've yet to see any blind quotes coming out of the WH knocking McCain. Said one "SAO" in today's Post story: "There's no question of motives that there may have been a couple years ago. My sense is, this is paining him and this pains us. Neither of us wants to be in the position to have to do this and have it spill out into public."

Has the president, or a certain Dep Chief of Staff, laid down the law to such "SAOs" that there will be no negative leaks about McCain? And, if so, what does that say to those in "Bush Country" about how this admin feels about '08?
[JONATHAN MARTIN AND MARC AMBINDER]

At least two Democratic presidential candidates aren't thrilled with the prospect that Dems in Congress might try to repeal the series of income tax cuts associated with President Bush.

In Iowa yesterday, ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner said his party had taken "the wrong approach" on the tax cuts, and singled out Sen. John Kerry's presidential campaign for ignoring the widespread appeal of a lower tax burden. Said Warner: "Even though the Bush tax cuts only applied to the top 2 percent of Americans, what I think the Kerry campaign missed was that the other 98 percent of Americans still aspired to get to the point in their life where they could qualify for the tax cuts."

Kerry and other Dem candidates wanted to roll back the income tax rate changes for wealthy Americans to pay for more domestic spending.

According to the Des Moines Register, "Warner said wealthier Americans may be willing to support what would essentially be an income-tax increase, but only if it is portrayed as part of a fiscal strategy that includes trimming government waste and curbing spending."

He took that approach in Virginia, although the state legislature wouldn't submit to an increase in income tax rates. Instead, a coalition of Republicans and Democrats gave Warner a slight tick up in the sales tax and a boost in the cigarette tax. It raised about $1 billion in revenue. The acquiescence of Republicans and voters in one of the most distinctly anti-tax states in the union suggests to some analysts that voters nationally are more willing to pay more if they can taste how the increased revenue will help them educate their children or drive customers to their businesses.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has also voiced doubts about repealing the Bush tax cuts. Before a speech on the economy in Chicago, she told Bloomberg that she wasn't sure whether she'd want to see pre-Bush tax rates "restored." Said Clinton: "I'm not sure that that's exactly what we should do, but I think the combination of fiscal responsibility and economic growth proves to be very positive for our country."

It's safe to say that '08 Democrats will propose a healthy amount of domestic spending. They'll promise to fund some of it by squeezing more efficiency out of the current budget. But where will they get billions for health care, schools and even to increase the number of Special Operations forces?

Would they repeal the Bush tax cuts? Would they cut spending elsewhere? Would they raise taxes?

On the plus side, it wasn't a blogger who injected a question from the "Twilight Zone" into 9/18's Chamber of Commerce debate between Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and ex-Navy sec James Webb (D).

Nevertheless, bloggers from both sides took the bait and spun the "how Jewish is Allen" question into their over-arching storylines of the debate. For the left, the encounter was just another episode exposing Allen as a temperamental racist. For the right, it was just another example of the MSM out to get GOPers. Actual issues facing Virginians took a back seat.

Blog supporters claim they offer a great opportunity for nuanced, reasoned debate, but when we look at the races they've actually affected, have blogs elevated or degraded the level of discourse in the race?

Read today's Blogometer in full.

Today, The President Addressed The United Nations General Assembly And Spoke About A More Hopeful World Beyond Terror And Extremism – Where Ordinary Men And Women Are Free To Determine Their Own Destiny, The Voices Of Moderation Are Empowered, And The Extremists Are Marginalized By The Peaceful Majority. President Bush believes this more hopeful world can be ours if we seek it and work together. At the start of the 21st century, it is clear that the world is engaged in a great ideological struggle between extremists who use terror as a weapon to create fear, and moderate people everywhere who are working for peace.

Our weekly '06 debate highlight reel -- Hotline's Barbs and Jabs -- is now available on nationaljournal.com:
http://video.nationaljournal.com/barbs.ram

This week, we'll bring you the must-see moments from Allen/Webb on MTP, the only Case/Akaka debate from Hawaii, and a dip into MN-01 fight between Gutknecht and Walz.

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Bruce On The Loose: In IA 01, Atty Bruce Braley is ahead of restaurateur Mike Whalen (R) in an independent, Des Moines Register poll. Will his strong opposition to the Iraq war be an asset in this Dem-leaning district? (Hotline sources, 9/18 ).

2. A Fiesty Debate: In their first NM 01 debate 9/17, Rep. Heather Wilson (R) and AG Patricia Madrid (D) "traded sharp words," and questioned each other "on ethics, Medicare, the Iraq war and negative campaign ads" (Albuquerque Journal, 9/18).

3. No Cindy Sheehan: Trying to prevent critics from attacking his position on the war in Iraq, Rep. John Sweeney (R) in NY 20 says he is "humbled" by a Dem in a new TV ad. Sweeney, speaking about a mother who lost her son in Iraq (and is endorsing Sweeney): "I am humbled every day by the sacrifice that Kathy" and her family have made (Albany Times Union, 9/17).

4. Martha Got The Memo: During their "first post primary debate" in VT AL, Adj. Gen Martha Rainville (R) and Sen. Peter Welch (D) "got testy" when it came to discussing Iraq (Barre-Montpelier Times Argus, 9/16).

5. Prime Spot: In CT 05, Dem radio and GOP listeners who tuned in 9/16 to hear state Sen. Chris Murphy's (D) response to Pres. Bush's radio address got a little more than they bargained for. Murphy talked about Medicare and simultaneously "singled out" Rep. Nancy Johnson (R). Murphy: "She wrote the confusing Medicare law in 2003... one of many [GOPers] who opposes allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices -- a Democratic idea" (AP/
HartfordCourant, 9/16).

Dueling headlines:
--Sanford wants $400 million in new spending next year
-- Sanford Sets Tight Budget Framework

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner was in Ottumwa. The coverage dutifully noted his gubernatorial accolades.

Courtesy of RudyBlogger: will staunch conservative ex-Rep. Jim Ross Lightfoot (R-IA) endorse Giuliani?

Sen. Evan Bayh plans to visit New Hampshire this weekend. He'll speak at the Manchester City Dems' "Countdown to Victory Dinner" on 9/24. He'll also visit Rochester, Nashua and Salem. (Hotline)

The New Hampshire Union Leader picks up Giuliani's first trip to NH.

Ex-Pres. Clinton said he was "concerned by front-loading" in WH '08 calendar (AP).

Last week's primary turnout in NH was low, low, low.

There was a lot of talk last night about the Pope's comments on Muslims. There was also some discussion on Pres. Bush's U.N. visit and the debate over interrogation techniques:

MSNBC's Shuster: "As the president left today for his sixth visit to the United Nations, White House officials and diplomats acknowledged the Bush administration remains isolated over the Iraq war and something of a lone ranger when it comes to the nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea" ("Hardball," 9/18).

CNN's Roberts: "He's a full seven inches shorter than President Bush, but, at every opportunity, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad just loves to poke the president in the eye" ("AC 360," 9/18).

FNC's Goler: "Days after admitting how much the United Nations frustrates him, President Bush traveled to New York to try and rally the organization to support moderate Mideast leaders and oppose extremist ones" ("Special Report," 9/18).

TV TURNS TO TORTURE

CNN's Koppel: "We're getting strong signals from these three Republican senators that there's some flexibility and that there's some real negotiating taking place on the hard issue, in particular, Article 3 of the Geneva Convention" ("Situation Room," 9/18).

FNC's Angle: "Negotiations continued behind the scenes today and sources now say the prospects for a compromise are 50/50" ("Special Report," 9/18).

Newsweek's Wolff: "The White House is stretching here to try and accommodate things, and I suspect, just as we saw before with the McCain amendment on cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment of prisoners, these senators are going to get pretty much what they want" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 9/18).

Sec/State Condoleezza Rice: "No one wants us to give up the methods and the program that has produced information that has stopped attacks" ("Today," NBC, 9/19).

Undersec/state Karen Hughes, on interrogation techniques: "I've seen it reported that we're trying to redefine. We're not redefining anything. We're trying to define it and clarify it and make it clear what the rules are, so that our people won't violate those rules" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 9/18).

RNC Chair Ken Mehlman: "This program is critical. We have a new war. It requires us to adapt our tactics and it requires us to be consistent with our most important values" ("Situation Room," CNN, 9/18).

CAMPAIGNING TO HIS OWN TUNE

TX GOV candidate Kinky Friedman (I) stopped by "Tucker" last night:

Friedman: "If we were doing any better, I'd be nervous about it."

On the Katrina evacuees: "I'm faulting the governor for not that he brought all of these people over but he invited them to
somebody else's house for dinner and he didn't stick around to pick up the tab. I want to send $100 million to law enforcement in Houston so we can get 1,200 more cops on the street, overtime for all the cops and law enforcement, because the evacuees have been responsible for 20 percent of the homicides in Houston last year."

On his chances: "Like in the Lieberman race, I think there was 50 percent more people voted than they thought would vote. I mean, if we get anything even approaching that, it's going to be a landslide for us" (MSNBC, 9/18).

Rep. Bob Ney resigned from two subcommittee chairmanships today, but that won't quite cut it.

Here's what OH 18 GOP candidate Joy Padgett, who Dems call his "hand-picked successor," said today about Ney:

"The institution of the Congress must be beyond reproach and without blemish. Congressman Ney's admission of guilt to serious charges requires his immediate resignation. That being said, it was my expectation that Congressman Ney would have by now resigned his office in the United States Congress. I am calling on him to do so immediately. Failing that, Congress should take action to expel Congressman Ney as soon as possible."

IA Sec/State and GOV candidate Chet Culver (D) looks to boost his warchest at a $1K per-person funder tonight at the Georgetown home of Jim Johnson, the Dem who ran Walter Mondale's campaign in '84 and headed up John Kerry's VP search in '04. Rep./Gov candidate Jim Nussle's (R-01) camp is, of course, making much hay out of the son-of-a-Senator returning to DC to raise some Beltway bucks (and in an apartment at the Ritz, no less!). But putting aside Nussle's own ties to the 202 for the moment, we got a kick out of the many big-name Dems who probably like Culver more than just because he's a nice fella who played a pretty decent Tight End for VA Tech a few years back.

Event sponsors include: Sen's Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and John Kerry, ex-Sen. Tom Daschle and ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner. Oh, and DC uberlawyer/FOB Vernon Jordan. Anybody seen Vernon in Des Moines recently?

Today's VA SEN debate, hosted by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce at a Tysons Corner hotel, naturally included much discussion of labor issues and rural, Southwest VA. Yeah, we were confused, too, but then this hasn't been a typical VA campaign.

In what other race has the perennially sunny and forward-looking Sen. George Allen (R) seemed so reactive and defensive? Sure, he had to attack Mary Sue Terry (D), a 2-term AG and the favorite in '93, to convince VA'ians that they didn't want to elect a 4th consecutive Dem governor. And of course he pounded ex-Sen. Chuck Robb (D) for his allegiance to Pres Clinton and questionable "Virginia Values." But while carrying out both these tasks with the relish of the football player he was, Allen did so with a smile on his face and optimism in his voice. Now, never having run for re-election as a House member or governor, Allen the hunter finds himself in the rare position of being the quarry.

Having endured the worst spate of press in his quarter-century in politics last month, Allen has sought to redirect the media glare onto his opponent, ex-Navy Secretary James Webb (D). Dealing with his own racial issues, Allen is now in essence saying Webb has women issues. If the strategy wasn't clear when the his campaign helped to arrange a full-dress press conference last week with female Annapolis graduates speaking out against Webb's writing on women in the service, it was made evident today. At least twice, Allen sought to tie Webb's refusal to pull an ad featuring Ronald Reagan as an example of Webb's disrespect for woman. Citing Nancy Reagan's request that the spot be taken down, Allen said Webb was, in effect, treating the widow with the same contempt he treated other women.

Such hardball tactics are nothing new to Allen and his cadre of advisers, but, again, the difference is in the demeanor. Asked a bizarre question about whether his mother was (basically), racist, and then whether he had Jewish roots on his mother's side of the family, Allen (and the crowd) reacted with disdain bordering on outrage. And while he composed himself to bat down the query, he was still simmering about it when, in his closing statement, he thanked the reporters for their questions, but added a "most of them, at least" caveat.

But as shockingly vulnerable as Allen seems, Webb still can't seem to hit the right chord. Ignoring the precedent of Robb, ex-Gov. Gerald Baliles, ex-Gov. Doug Wilder, ex-Gov. Mark Warner and current Gov. Tim Kaine, Webb has sought to run a pro-labor campaign emphasizing class differences. Yes, he is anything but a typical pol, and, yes, he believes deeply in his populist philosophy, but why would he use his debut in front of the very pro-business moderates that he needs fundraising help from to declare that what VA and America need is more colllective bargaining? As Allen reminded Webb, VA is a right-to-work state and for many (at least the ones that seed statewide campaigns) such policies have worked out pretty well. Webb wants the campaign to be about more than Iraq, but is asking "What's The Matter With Virginia?" the best way to do it?

As with much else in VA politics, Dr. Larry Sabato may know best. The media-friendly UVa pundit cut his teeth working for the last populist to run atop the Dem ticket in VA, Howlin' Henry Howell. The fiery Howell took on "the big boys" in 3 straight GOV races in '69, '73 and '77 and VA responded by electing 3 straight GOP governors.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Taxes have become the central issue in the latest batch of NRCC attack ads, overshadowing terrorism, immigration and Nancy Pelosi -- at least for now. The strategy isn't too surprising in the Dem-leaning Philly burbs (PA 06/PA 07), where the president's foreign policy isn't a winning issue. But in AZ 08, the tax attack against ex-state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) is notable in a race where immigration is (by far) the most important issue among GOPers. The ad charges that Giffords "repeatedly voted against tax cuts" in the state legislature, and calls her a "hypocrite" on the issue.

Meanwhile, the Philly ads remind ancestral, suburban GOP voters why they've voted for the party in the past by raising the specter of higher taxes. They attack PA 06 Dem Lois Murphy for opposing tax breaks and PA 07 Dem Joe Sestak of "bringing back the death tax." We'll see whether these attacks stick. But it's clear that the tried-and-tested "higher taxes" attack line will once again be front-and-center in the GOP playbook this fall. Some things never change. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

But there are many more rounds.

The national media seems to agree: the Republicans "won" the first week after Labor Day.

Item: McClatchy's Steven Thomma, in a piece that appeared in several dozen newspapers across the US: "With the fall election campaign taking shape, many Republicans believe for the first time in months that they've turned a corner and could limit feared midterm losses enough to retain control of Congress."

Item: from ABC's "The Note: "it is possible that the last few weeks have baked-into-the-cakes of voters' minds that this election is about who will keep America safer."

Item: from the New York Daily News: "political handicappers say it's nearly impossible for Democrats to win the Senate this fall."

Item: Rick Klein in the Boston Globe: "Public confidence in President Bush's leadership appears to be rising since last week's campaign-style blitz touting his record in fighting terrorism, generating optimism among Republican lawmakers and operatives that they will be able to avoid losing control of Congress in the fall."

(Discordant views: the Post's Weisman, on GOP disunity over detainees.)

Even the Republican base pays attention to the press.

Articles like the ones above generate:

1. Base and "GOP strategist" confidence, which convinces reporters to write
2. More articles like these, in more areas of the country, which will produce
3. Base Enthusiasm, which
4. Begins to give Republican candidates in tight races the latitude to take more risks.

Thanks to a concerted White House campaign aimed squarely at Republican leaners, Bush's approval ratings have risen just a blip -- but enough to pull up his party's ratings on terrorism.

A key point of comfort for Democrats is that Pres. Bush's approval ratings in the Northeast and Midwest are still abysmal. The right-track/wrong direction arrow swings “wrong;” only 31 percent of Iowans think the country is headed in the right direction, for example. It's still going to be difficult for Republicans to play the terrorism trump card in October because, to a significant degree, their party's advantage on that issue is yoked to the degree to which independents trust Bush. But independents still prefer Democrats, generally, and on issues, specifically, by a strong margin.

We wrap up the Massachusetts Gov primary, which actually got a lot more interesting this week. Too bad that didn't happen in July.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Massachusetts Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Gabrieli plays the victim in a spot his campaign released Friday -- a day after Republican candidate Kerry Healey shot an attack his way before Tuesday's intense Democratic primary.

Rather than defend himself against charges that he is seeking to pad his already-substantial wealth, Gabrieli seeks to use Healey's attack to his advantage. He scolds Healey -- who, as lieutenant governor, is second in command to Gov. Mitt Romney (R) in the commonwealth -- with: "petty politics and finger-pointing are not the way to create jobs, improve our schools or cut taxes."

And playing into the theory that Healey's initial attack was a sign that her campaign is more concerned about facing Gabrieli than state Attorney General Tom Reilly or Deval Patrick in the general election, the response ad quotes a Washington Post columnist who supports the idea.

If that was the intent of Healey's strategy, she must be happy with the way the result is unfolding: the Boston Globe reported Sunday morning that its new poll shows Patrick has opened a 21-point lead over Gabrieli and Reilly.
Want to learn more? Hotline subscribers get full access to each day's Ad Spotlight, including video of campaign ads from this year's key House, Senate and gubernatorial races, plus an archive of 8500+ ads from the last ten years.

Righty blogger attention is mostly focused 9/18 on Islamic reaction to Pope Benedict XVI's 9/12 speech. Normally not a subject of interest to Hotline readers, conservative blogger reaction can be found here, here, here, here, here, here, and here (this is by no means a definitive list). Is this a distraction for righty efforts to maintain GOP majorities in Congress? Certainly not. As DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas points out in PBS' NOW special "Blog the Vote," blogs political value is all about exciting the base, and nothing, it seems, fires GOPers up more than a clash of civilizations.


VA SEN: You're Daddy Wears Combat Boots


Few righty bloggers were impressed with Sen. George Allen's (R-VA) 9/17 Meet the Press debate against ex-Navy sec. James Webb (D). At National Review Online, Kathryn Jean Lopez hopes most Virginians were either "at church or enjoying the good weather." Dean Barnett at Townhall.com was even harsher on the GOPer heading his writeup of the debate: "If It Was a Prize Fight, It Would Have Been Stopped at the First Commercial Break." Barnett went on to say: "I squarely and unequivocally support Allen's re-election. Or at least I did until this morning's debate. Now I'm not so sure. Webb outclassed Allen in every aspect of the clash."

Read today's Blogometer in full.

Republicans are crowing about this new ad from MD Sen. candidate Michael Steele.

STEELE: "Hey, me again. Michael Steele. Soon your TV will be jammed with negative ads from the Washington crowd. Grainy pictures and spooky music saying 'Steele hates puppies.' And worse. For the record, I love puppies. And I think you deserve better. Some real ideas for change. Like a ban on all gifts from lobbyists to Congressmen. And no last minute amendments for pork barrel spending. That's a start. Because Washington can't fix our problems until we fix theirs. I'm Michael Steele and this is my message" (release, 9/15).

To those who don't know Steele or have a vague impression that he's a Republican and the state's lieutenant governor, it's potentially memorable.

That said, Republican candidates in the Northeast are running on fumes instead of issues. Lobbying reform? Small bore for a Senate race. But ask yourself: what else can Steele really say?

Update: Here's what the MD Dem party says about the ad: "The Michael Steele you see on TV wants you to believe he'll change Washington by ending lobbyist gifts. But the real Michael Steele accepted gifts from lobbyists and has created a team of lobbyists dedicated to funneling special interest money to his campaign."

Very creative.

Dubuque, Johnson, Linn, Pottawattamie and Woodbury Counties opening headquarters to aid in Republican turnout effort

DES MOINES – Jim Nussle, Republican Candidate for Governor, and Mitt Romney, honorary chair of the Commonwealth PAC and Republican Governor of Massachusetts, today announced a joint effort to provide financial support to Republican Headquarters in five key Iowa counties.

“I want to thank Governor Romney and Commonwealth PAC for their support. Together, we’re proud to put the best possible grassroots campaign together to turn out the vote on November 7,” said Nussle. Nussle went on to say that the county headquarters program they are funding will serve as key phone banks and volunteer centers in critical counties.

Governor Mitt Romney’s Commonwealth PAC has already given substantial financial support to Republican candidates across Iowa and the country, but says he’s particularly proud of the support for volunteers.

“We know that Republicans win when they combine the best message, the strongest candidate, and the most organized and effective volunteer effort,” said Romney. “With Jim Nussle, Iowans have an extraordinary leader to take the state forward – with vision and purpose. Now it’s time to give the volunteers the tools they need to win. I’m happy that we can be a part of this campaign.”

Jeff Zeleny's good-bye article for the Chicago Tribune plays off Obama's 08 demurrals. (Not denials -- demurrals.) The Register coverage is all excitement/08, excitement/08, excitement/ 08.

Still not sure what Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner was thinking: " Mark Warner, the former Virginia governor, who is also testing the waters for a presidential campaign, made brief remarks at the start of the event, although he was barely audible from the back of the crowd amid the frenzy over Mr. Obama."

We know ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be in New Hampshire for several events on October 12. One of them will be the first "First in the Nation Forum" sponsored by VictoryNH, a conservative group. Giuliani will speak, ostensibly, on why NH deserves its special place on the primary calendar. We also know that other events are planned, but we're not quite sure what they are -- yet.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) held his ground in NH this weekend over the status of detainee interrogations. A New Hampshire Union Leader editorial thinks he's fighting "the wrong war." The tireless Steve Kornacki notes that ex-NH Supreme Court judge Chuck Douglas is aboard Team McCain.

Meanwhile, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) participated in several events this weekend. He pledged fidelity to NH's first in the nation status and kibbitzed with donors. Here's an interesting story he told about Joe Lieberman, per a source: " Dodd told a group of NH Dems a story of how he was trying to reach Lieberman by cell phone during the week before the primary and he never returned his calls. Dodd said the he was trying to reach Lieberman to prep him for the fact he wouldn't support an indie bid. Dodd also said Lieberman never told him anything about the indie plans"

Also: Sen. Evan Bayh, in a speech to UAW members in IA, calls for tarriffs on Chinese goods. Also: John Kerry and a Beer Bong.

From the Capitol Police:

09/18/06 0809 hrs
There has been a security breach at the US Capitol. US Capitol Police have one subject in custody at this time. The US Capitol Buidling remains in lock down at this time. No access will be granted pending a security sweep of the building. Additional information will follow.

The Brunch is an exclusive Saturday political news digest and tip sheet from the editors of The Hotline.

WHAT'S BREWING

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

You've seen presidential candidates get intimate with all of the Iowa and New Hampshire statehouses already this cycle, but former Virginia Governor Mark Warner is the first to take that relationship public online. Hey, he couldn't actually spend every weekend in Des Moines and Concord until 2008 -- that would be way too, well, forward. So he's launching his second candidate fundraising contest, Map Changers: IA and NH edition, this weekend at Sen. Tom Harkin's ritual Democratic Steak Fry in Iowa.

This time around, eight Iowa state Democrats will receive a total of $30,000. And because the PAC has already maxed out on all of the New Hampshire state Senate candidates, 15 statehouse democrats will share more than $10,000 in donations. The original Map Changer winner, Bill Winters (CO-06), got a Warner visit and Forward Together funds. Lefty blogfather Jerome Armstrong leads the effort and Warner's six-person e-team. It's a relatively large staff for more than two years to go before '08, but that's probably why they have what some consider the most active Dem '08 internet campaign so far.

Also in Warner world, the PAC is the first campaign to buy this ad on The Facebook as part of the popular social network's Election 2006 Initiative. Facebook's program allows political candidates to buy advertisements on Facebook, now 8 million users strong, for much less than their corporate advertisers. If you haven't already checked out the Election '06 initiative, it's worth your while to do so. Sign on and search for co-workers as "Election 2006" to see the 1,600 candidate profiles running for office across the country.

Yum, bytes:
*Texas Governor Rick Perry is promoting his "Perry Alliance Network," a social network where supporters can compete for points by doing activities like volunteering and recruiting others (both 100 points) to get "prizes," like an "Exclusive Alliance Member Bumper Sticker" (200 points). It's similar to VOLPAC's and the GOP's incentive-based online communities.
*Ted Kennedy sent a 3-minute-long video on Net Neutrality out to his 200,000 person e-mail list. Although Kennedy is not known for his own technological prowess (remember the "computer letter" comment to Arlen Specter during the Alito hearings?), he's built up strong internet backing over the years which helped make that video the 83rd most viewed on YouTube today.
*The DCCC is out with a new Web ad, "No Regrets."
*South Carolina Gubernatorial candidate Tommy Moore has put up a new Web site, designed by home state firm The Rackes Group.
*Scharzenegger's e-team is out with a new Web ad on the "Tractor Tax."

A sophisticated and previously unrevealed experiment by Democratic interest groups could provide Democratic candidates in as many as nine states with an unanticipated edge in the November elections.

If the state modeling projects work, America Votes hopes to setup a similar effort in every battleground state in 2008.

America Votes, a roundtable of the nation's top liberal membership groups, is coordinating a multimillion-dollar program to boost Democratic turnout using the same voter modeling method mastered by Republicans in 2004.

"The goal here is to once again bring 'field' into the column of the progressive community," said Jano Cabrera, a senior adviser to the project.

EMILY's List, which raises money to help elect Democratic women, is in the catbird seat for two states: Michigan and Minnesota, both of which feature competitive gubernatorial and senate races. Other members of America Votes plan to employ the project in Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And so-called "robust" voter lists will also be provided to program members in Arizona, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Read the full story. [MARC AMBINDER]

This week on Hotline TV, Chuck and John recap the bout between Linc Chafee's mechanics and Steve Laffey's message, Bubba and the bloggers and a mailbag stuffed with executive correspondence. By the way, could Menendez pull a Torch switcheroo?!?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Changing His Tune...: Rep. Bob Ney (R) may not be feeling as "heartened" as State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) is in OH 18. After starting rehab 9/14, he's pleading guilty as charged. Meanwhile, Padgett won big across the district in last night's special GOP primary (Columbus Dispatch, 9/15).

2. Payback Time:Instead of attacking ex-state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) itself, the DCCC is letting GOPers speak up against Randy Graf (R) in its latest attack ad. ANNCR: "Republican Steve Huffman said challenger Randy Graf ' is so extreme and irresponsible he is dangerous.'" (Hotline sources, 9/15 ).

3. Switching Sides: Dems aren't too happy about one of their own endorsing a GOPer. Yet in WI 08, Dem. state Rep. Bob Ziegelbauer (D) doesn't seem too concerned. In a new TV ad, he says, "you have to respect" Rep. State Assemb. Speaker John Gard (R). ZIEGELBAUER: people coming to him, Democrat or Republican, are thinking much more, 'this is a guy like me.' He's a real person with real world experience who connects with real people" (Hotline sources, 9/15 ).

4. In It All The Way: In NY 20, the DCCC's planning in advance. .. for ad time to attack Rep. John Sweeney (R). It will "pour hundreds of thousands of dollars" to avoid its "mistake" of "failing to more aggresively support atty Kirsten Gillibrand (D) (New York Times, 9/15).

Just four states will determine whether Democrats take back the House this fall. In Indiana and Ohio, unpopular Republican governors are putting solidly conservative districts in play. And in Connecticut and Pennsylvania, high-profile national issues are taking a toll on Republicans running in Democratic-leaning districts.

In those states alone, 13 House seats -- all held by Republicans -- are up for grabs. But there's one silver lining for Republicans looking to stem the Democratic tide. To win back the House, Democrats need to knock off many Republican incumbents. And GOP incumbents hold 12 of these 13 seats.

\Whether Democratic challengers can defeat those incumbents depends on how sour the national mood is against the majority party. Since 1996, no more than eight incumbents have lost in any given year. There are only eight potential open-seat pickups nationally for the Democrats, meaning Democrats need to knock off at least seven GOP incumbents -- and more likely as many as 10.

Some, like Reps. Rob Simmons, R-Conn., and John Hostettler, R-Ind., are perennial targets. But the fortune of other longtime members will depend on whether incumbency turns out to be a burden or an asset this cycle. Three incumbents with a combined 56 years of service hope that by outspending their opponents and catering to constituents, they can inoculate themselves from any Democratic wave.

Six-term Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Ohio, is one of the Democrats' newfound targets. He's running in a Cincinnati-area district that narrowly voted for President Bush in the last two presidential elections. Chabot is known for his assiduous constituent service, allowing him to rack up double-digit margins of victory in 2002 and 2004.

Yet he's facing a strong second-time challenge from Cincinnati Councilman John Cranley. The bleak statewide picture, with GOP Gov. Bob Taft enmeshed in scandal and a Republican fundraiser sentenced to prison just this week, has helped all Democratic challengers in Ohio. Meanwhile, Cranley has been linking Chabot to Bush and attacking him on gas prices and the minimum wage.

Cranley's campaign claims the race is even, although Chabot had nearly three times the cash on hand at the end of the second quarter. But if voters are willing to punish Chabot because of his party identification, money might not matter. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

It was reported in today's Hotline that KDKA-TV (Pittsburgh) had sent a letter to Sen. Rick Santorum's (R-PA) campaign informing them that "the law precludes us from offering you spots at the lowest unit charge for the remainder of the election campaign." That decision was apparently in reponse to the failure of the latest Santorum TV ad to include the "I approved this message" at the END of the spot, rather than the beginning, per FCC regulations applying to the last 60 days of a campaign. This could have had the result of seriously draining the Santorum campaign coffers for future ad buys. However Santorum consultant John Brabender now states: "Our lawyer was just informed the station changed their opinion and will now be giving us lowest unit rate." [QUINN MCCORD]

Sen. Barack Obama will meet 2,000 screaming Iowa Democrats at Sen. Tom Harkin's annual Steak Fry in Indianola, IA this weekend. Accompanying him will be Steve Hildebrand, who helped Al Gore win the IA caucuses in 2000 and who now serves as an adviser to Sen. Tom Daschle. Meanwhile, Gov. Mark Warner will try to shake the hand of every Democrat not preoccupied by Mr. Obama.

Sen. John Kerry attends The Game in Iowa City tomorrow; tonight, Sen. Evan Bayh addresses the United Auto Workers convention in Des Moines.

On Sunday, Sen. John McCain serves as grand amrshall at the Sylvania 300 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at the NH Int'l Speedway in Loudon, NH

The Hotline's Jonathan Martin, writing in National Review Online, about South Carolina: "Since 1980, no Republican presidential candidate has won the nomination without winning the South Carolina primary. And in every contested nomination battle since that time, the man who delivered those winning Republican votes was Carroll Campbell. In 2000 there was little doubt whom Campbell and his friends would get behind. The Campbells and the Bushs were like family. And once again, he came through with a must-have victory, stopping the bleeding from another Bush loss in New Hampshire. Without Campbell, there is no unified political operation ready to get behind a favored Republican. John McCain can’t be taken out if there is a) no George W. Bush to do the taking out and b) no ready apparatus to crush the insurgency. Whether there will be one of the former – a consensus establishment candidate with backing from both the country club donor wing and evangelical activist wing of the party — is an open question. But nothing resembling the latter exists today within the South Carolina Republican party, say observers there."

Also today: Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) is in SC.

Says Pres. Bush:

I am asking Congress to pass a clear law and clear guidelines based on the detainee treatment act that was strongly supported by Sen. John McCain. I have one test for this legislation: I’m going to ask one question: the intelligence community must be able to tell me that the bill before Congress will allow this vital program to continue.

Bush, on the SCOTUS ruling: “Outrages upon human dignity. That's a statement that is wide open to interpretation. What I’m proposing is that there be clarity in the law so that our professionals will have no doubt that what they'll be doing is legal.” More Bush: “We believe a good way to go is to use the amendment that we worked with John McCain on, called the detainee treatment act, as a basis for clarity.”

The AP's Terry Hunt asks about Colin Powell's "moral basis" concerns. Bush: "if there's any comparison between the compassion and decency of the American people and the terrorist attacks of extremists, that's flawed logic. I simply can't accept that.

Bush: " We didn't ask for this war." In the '00 campaign, "I don't remember spending much talk about what it might be like to be a commander in chief in a different kind of way."

Statement of Mark H. Tuohey III and William E. Lawler III, Counsel for Congressman Robert W. Ney

The Plea Agreement Congressman Ney has reached with the government reflects his decision to deal with the effects of his past conduct and to start preparing for the next stages of his life.
Bob Ney is a decent, hardworking, lifelong public servant who has made serious mistakes and he wants to take responsibility for those mistakes.

As shown in papers filed in court, I have reached an agreement to bring the government’s investigation of me to an end. The agreement will enable me to accept responsibility for what I have done, to start repairing the damage I have caused and to start healing my family.

I have made serious mistakes and am sorry for them. I am very sorry for the pain I have caused to my family, my constituents in Ohio and my colleagues.

I know that this plea agreement will probably forever change the way people view my public service. I regret this very much because I hope and believe that I have helped people through my work, and I hope that someday the good I have tried to do will be measured along side the mistakes I have made.

These have been difficult times, and I appreciate more than I can describe the support, encouragement and friendship that people from inside and outside my District have given to me and my family over the past months.

I have gone through a great deal of soul searching recently, and I have come to recognize that a dependence on alcohol has been a problem for me. I am not making any excuses, and I take full responsibility for my actions. Over the years, I have worked to help others, but now I am the one that needs help. I am seeking professional help for this problem I am hopeful that with counseling, time and the support of my family and friends, I will be able to deal with my dependency.

After hitting the Lone Star State's airwaves in December in the form of an action figure, country star Kinky Friedman is back. Friedman, one of Texas' two viable independent gubernatorial candidates this year, released two introductory spots on TV Wednesday, although his campaign Web site offers a smorgasbord of multimedia advertisements and entertainment.

The 61-year-old takes a cue from fellow independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn's debut last week by using his age as a campaign tool, telling viewers he's "too young for Medicare and too old for women to care." And he, too, takes an indirect shot at Gov. Rick Perry (R), who's been rumored to have national political aspirations, with the pointer: "A politician's thinking about the next election. A statesman's thinking about the next generation."

"Folks," he addresses Texans in the second ad, "we don't need a politician as governor anymore. We need a good shepherd." In order to explain that that's why he's running, he refers to a bible verse for background.

Want to learn more? Hotline subscribers get full access to each day's Ad Spotlight, including video of campaign ads from this year's key House, Senate and gubernatorial races, plus an archive of 8500+ ads from the last ten years.

Most of the political talk last night focused on the military tribunal debate:

MSNBC's Shuster: "The president, ironically, is getting the focus that he wants on Capitol Hill and that is a discussion about terror as opposed to any discussion about Iraq. But what he has now is that the debate is not going his way" ("Hardball," 9/14).

FNC's Baier: "Asked about the possible political damage of this Republican divide, [WH spokesperson Tony] Snow simply said this isn't a shootout in the OK Corral, it's not a crisis, it's how laws are written" ("Special Report," 9/14).

CNN's Bash: "An internal party struggle over national security is the last thing any Republican wants, especially less than two months before an election where that is their top issue. But, in this case ... both sides say that it's a matter of principle, and both sides say they're right" ("PZ Now," 9/14).

FNC's Garrett: "The Democrats eagerly stood with rebellious Republicans, demanding Congress guarantee GITMO detainees' human rights protections outlined in the Geneva Convention and endorsed by the Supreme Court" ("Special Report," 9/14).

Congressional Quarterly's Craig Crawford: "This president has oddly, and this is one of the strangest things about this president, I've thought all along, that how he has just not really shown much interest at building personal relationships on Capitol Hill with his own party members. And that has led to a lot of these problems like we saw today, where they bolt, they buck on him. And that's something that I don't think he can change now, it's too late" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 9/14).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was in the "Situation Room":

On the military tribunal legislation: "I think we see a compromise there so that we could prevent national security from being compromised, but yet still allow the defendant to be able to see some of the evidence against him. It's just not a normal procedure that someone who is subject to the death penalty is not allowed to see the evidence that's presented against him."

CNN's Blitzer: "As you know, you and Senator Warner and Senator Lindsey Graham, your version prevailed in the Senate Armed Services Committee. But you've got a long way to go in this process, a very different perspective in the House of Representatives. How much of a battle is there going to be?"

McCain: "I hope it's not a battle at all. I hope that we can sit down and resolve our differences. That would be the best way to resolve it. But I think you're going to find that there are many, many military personnel that would be deeply concerned about amending the Geneva Conventions, and that we could use a different approach and provide the same protections to our men and women who are engaged in interrogation activities."

Blitzer: "How concerned are you that three powerful Republican senators, you, being John McCain, Lindsey Graham, John Warner, that some Republicans might say you're giving aid and comfort to Democrats during this very, very bitter political season less than eight weeks before an election?"

McCain: "Well, first of all, there are other Republicans that agree with us, and there's many other people around the country like General Colin Powell who agrees with us. This should have nothing to do with politics, nothing. This is about the lives of American men and women who are serving our country. I believe that we can work out our differences, and I will bend every effort to do so. It's very important. Not because we have an election coming up, but because we have men and women who are serving in the military who need every protection we can provide them with" (CNN, 9/14).

Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist was on "NewsHour":

On the military tribunal legislation: "We had the product that came out of the Armed Services Committee today. There are several very contentious issues in that bill that clearly the president will not agree with, and I think the majority of Republican senators, anyway, will not agree with. So not until we get to the floor will we know what the final product will be coming out of the United States Senate."

More: "The president clearly defines what Common Article 3 of the Geneva Convention means, and that way an interrogator will know how far they can go, what they can do, what does degrading treatment mean. Well, the McCain approach or the Armed Services Committee approach leaves that very, very vague. ... So what the president says is, no, we better define that very specifically. And that is a fundamental difference. And I, again, strongly support the plan and proposal put forth by the president" (PBS, 9/14).

And Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) was in the "Situation Room," where he got the inevitable WH '08 question:

Obama: "If you'll look in my calendar over the next two months, I'm going to be traveling to every single state where there are contested races, where there's an opportunity for us either to win the House or the Senate. Now, it turns out that there are a couple of important House races in Iowa, there's an important governor's race in Iowa. For me to avoid Iowa simply because I'm worried about what reporters think, when it's right next door to my home state of Illinois, wouldn't make much sense."

CNN's Blitzer: "Can we hear that Shermanesque statement about 2008 -- are you ready to make that statement right now?"

Obama: "Wolf, I have given you more than enough to work with, at least for the next week" (CNN, 9/14). [EMILY GOODIN]

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) has agreed with the Justice Department to plead guilty to at least one criminal charge in a deal that could be announced as early as today, Capitol Hill sources yesterday told the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

More good Michigan news for Sen. John McCain:

"Former Speaker of the House Chuck Perricone and former Senate Majority Leader Dan DeGrow have agreed to help recruit State Senators and State Representatives in Michigan to join Straight Talk America and offer advice to help win legislative elections in Michigan in 2006."

“Senator McCain is a man of integrity who has immense popularity in Michigan and will be invaluable to efforts to hold the House in 2006,” said former House Speaker Chuck Perricone. “I strongly support Straight Talk America and Senator McCain’s leadership for our country.”

“Senator John McCain can help Republicans win elections in Michigan more so than any other Republican leader,” said former Senator Majority Leader Dan DeGrow. “I look forward to working with him to help win Senate elections in 2006 and whatever he decides to do in the years ahead.”

“I value the advice and counsel of Speaker Perricone and Majority Leader DeGrow,” said Senator John McCain. “Their assistance will be helpful in determining where we can best help elect Michigan GOP candidates in 2006.”

Well, it depends what you mean by conceded. With 99.6% of precincts reporting (according to the AP), Mfume trails Ben Cardin by 15K votes, but there are an unknown number of provisional ballots across the state which have yet to be counted.

A source close to the Mfume campaign tells us that they are indeed waiting to see all the ballots counted before acknowledging defeat, however they point to Mfume's election night speech in which he made clear that he's perfectly willing to have Cardin as his senator, should Cardin win the nomination. The AP reported Tuesday night, Mfume "acknowledged that victory was unlikely" and said Cardin would "be a damn good senator representing the state of Maryland, absolutely."

Still, it's interesting to note that the DSCC has yet to issue any release acknowledging Cardin as their nominee (besides summarzing a forwarded news article to that effect.) Nor has the Steele camp engaged Cardin since the primary. It seems that everyone wants to be very careful not to step on Mfume's toes, since his post-primary involvement (or lack thereof) could prove instrumental in mobilizing the African-American vote. [QUINN MCCORD]

John and Producer Reid tackle the latest polls and discover bad news for George Allen and Pres. Bush.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. A Bonus Primary: What's on the menu in OH 18? There's a special (primary) of the day... GOPers will choose between State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) -- the "leading contender" -- or pick one of four other options. If Padgett wins, will Dems use her "personal baggage" against her? (Roll Call, 9/14)?

2. Waste No Time: It's one day after the primary and the NRCC's going after ex-state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) with a new TV ad in AZ 08. ANNCR: "In the state Senate, she kept on voting against taxes... including a proposal to increase tax credits for married couples...Gabrielle Giffords. A hypocrite on taxes"
(Hotline sources ).

3. Made in Manhattan: In NY 20, Rep. John Sweeney's (R) out with a new TV ad attacking atty Kirsten Gillibrand (D)'s social status. ANNCR: "The time has come for Kirsten Gillibrand to clean up her campaign and tell the truth... about her rich Manhattan lifestyle." (Hotline sources ).

4. No Ducking Iraq: At least, that's what Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth (D) is saying in IL 06. Duckworth "does not agree that Iraq is part of the war on terror." State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) said he was "actually surprised she would say that" (Arlington Heights Daily Herald, 9/14 ).

Republicans took two big gambles Tuesday -- one in Rhode Island, the other in southern Arizona. One paid off; the other did not. But there's a less equivocal way to look at the outcome of September's Super Tuesday: Both primaries, as well as others this week in Maryland and New Hampshire, offered ominous signs for an embattled White House trying to bolster its public standing on the war and immigration reform. On mechanics, Republicans scored. On message, they fell short.

Read more of John Mercurio's Politiscope.

It's on Ronald Reagan, natch.

ANNCR: "Twenty years ago, fiction writer James Webb served in the Reagan Administration. After 10 months, he quit. Webb attacked Reagan Policy. Now Webb wants you to believe that the late President would support him. Nancy Reagan doesn't. She called on Webb to take down his ad. Webb refused. Would Ronald Reagan really endorse a candidate who hires people that call him a fool and disrespects the wishes of his widowed wife? That's just fiction." ALLEN: "I'm George Allen and I approve this message."

BTW: Webb served in the administration for several years; the ad here refers to his job as Navy Secretary.

Tuesday’s Democratic primary election in Montgomery County, MD was a tale of two congressmen. Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) won his portion of the county in a landslide, taking 92% of the vote. Rep. Albert Wynn (D-MD), on the other hand, took a 60%-34% pasting in his slice of MoCo, a stunningly weak performance that nearly cost him his job.

Fortunately for Wynn, Montgomery County only cast about one-third of the primary votes in his 4th District. The rest were cast in his Prince George’s County base, enabling him to squeak by with a 50%-46% win.
Wynn, of course, faced a far more competitive challenger in Donna Edwards. But that doesn’t entirely explain why Montgomery County Democrats so thoroughly rejected him at the same time their neighbors were embracing Van Hollen.

Part of Wynn’s problem is a matter of style. Wynn is a beefy, machine-style pol and a kingmaker in P.G. County and state politics, a profile that doesn’t go over so well in goo-goo heavy Montgomery County. There, it is Van Hollen’s patrician good looks, his wonky approach, liberal activism and background as a congressional staffer that sets hearts aflutter.

Wynn’s tendency to break from the Democratic Party line on high-profile issues doesn’t help his cause either. Though majority-black P.G. County is more reliably Democratic in election performance, it is not necessarily as liberal as majority-white Montgomery County. For one thing, Prince George’s political culture is far less secularized; there is a strong church-based component to it. And as Wynn himself has explained, many of his maverick votes are taken with an eye toward his large P.G. constituency of suburban small business owners—many of whom happen to be black Democrats.

Does race play a subtle role in the way the two congressmen are perceived? Possibly, though it’s unlikely. Aside from being one of the most progressive-minded suburban counties in the nation, Montgomery County delivered 61% to African-American Ike Leggett against a white opponent in the county executive race, all but guaranteeing him the county’s top elected post.

In the end, there might be an even simpler explanation to Wynn’s underwhelming showing: Maybe Montgomery County, despite its proximity to Wynn’s Cannon office, is getting the Phil Crane treatment from its seven-term congressman.

Back in 1992, when Wynn first won a crowded Democratic primary for what was then a newly-created seat (then, as now, winning the Democratic nomination was tantamount to victory in the heavily Democratic 4th District), he narrowly edged out his toughest challenger by outworking him in the Montgomery County slice.

Since then, however, Wynn has failed to lock down MoCo. In 2004, he won just 60% in Montgomery and ran seven points behind John Kerry there. In P.G., however, Wynn racked up 86%, four points ahead of Kerry.
Compare that to Van Hollen, who ran seven points ahead of Kerry in Montgomery and 10 points ahead of him in the small portion of P.G. County that he represents. On Tuesday, Van Hollen won 88% in P.G. County. After just two terms in Congress, his hold on the 8th District is secure.

Both Wynn and Van Hollen have voiced varying degrees of interest in running for the Senate and, sooner or later, Maryland’s Senate seats will reflect the ongoing shift in power from the Baltimore area to the two most populous jurisdictions in the state--Montgomery and Prince George’s counties. After Tuesday’s primary, it would seem that Van Hollen is the better bet in 2010 if Sen. Barbara Mikulski declines to run for a fifth term. That is, unless Wynn figures out what’s the matter with Montgomery. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

Mahtesian is editor of the Almanac of American Politics.

NH 01 Dem candidate Carol Porter Shea took telephone calls from Sen. John Kerry, Sen. Russ Feingold and a gaggle of the usual suspects. No HRC, though.

More NH officials join Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America: They are: Cathy Stacey of Salem, President of the New Hampshire Association of Counties; Stuart Trachy of Franklin, Merrimack County Treasurer; David Fredette of Nashua, Hillsborough County Treasurer; Maureen Barrows of Exeter, Rockingham County Commissioner; and Dan St. Hilaire of Concord, Merrimack County Attorney.

Sen. Chris Dodd's political team released his NH schedule for 9/15-17. On 9/15, Dodd attends a NH Dem gen. election kick-off rally with Gov. John Lynch and House candidates Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes. On 9/16, he drops by Pappy's Pizza in Manchester for breakfast. He then addresses the NH AFL-CIO in Hooksett. In Salem, he raises money for state senate candidate Beth Roth. In Durham, he meets with UNH College Dems. He ends the day in Somersworth, raising money for state senate candidate Jackie Cilley. On 9/17, Dodd raises money for state senate candidate Deb Reynolds in Lyme, raise money for candidates Kathy Sgambati, Harold Janeway, and Hodes. Dodd travels to SC next week (release, 9/13).

NY Gov. George Pataki's (R) PAC hired NH native Alicia Preston as its "national" press sec (New Hampshire Union Leader).

You can get your gas at the Cum-N-Go for some of the lowest prices in the nation.

A Research 2000 poll shows IA Sec/State Chet Culver (D) leading Rep. Jim Nussle (R) 48%-43% in the race for IA Gov (release).

"I'm going to find a way to tell the states that there’s no more money for divorce" -- WH '08 hopeful Mark Klein (R), in IA (Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier).

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Not Lifting a Finger: Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) just won't endorse Ex-state Rep. Randy Graf (R) "now".. in AZ 08 but could he later? Kolbe: "There are such profound and fundamental differences between his views and mine on several key issues that I would not be true to my own principles were I to endorse him now (Release, 9/13).

2. First Muslim in Congress: State Rep. Keith Ellison 's (DFL) win 9/12 could earn him a few more titles in the future, and not just in MN 05. (Minneapolis Star Tribune, 9/13)

3. DCCC Polls Galore: Investment banker David McSweeney (R) just needs 15 points to catch up with Rep. Melissa Bean (D) in IL 08 and State Sen. Ron Klein (D). only needs 4 to meet Rep. Clay Shaw (R) in FL 22! (Hotline sources )

4. The Tax Attacks: The NRCC's playing offense with PA Dems. Atty/'04 nominee Lois Murphy (D)'s looking like she likes tax hikes in PA 06 and ret. Adm. Joe Sestak (D) might just have a taxing attack after he sees the NRCC's ad against him in PA 07 (Hotline sources ).

5. Falling Gas Prices: GOPers might consider this a gift going into midterms but DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) said that at least in WI 08, it's physician Steve Kagen (D) who's avoiding a gas tax hike, rather than state Assemb. Speaker John Gard (R) (DCCC release, 9/13).

Laura and I are deeply saddened by the passing of Governor Ann Richards of Texas. Ann loved Texas, and Texans loved her. As a public servant she earned respect and admiration. Ann became a national role model, and her charm, wit, and candor brought a refreshing vitality to public life. We extend our sympathies to Ann’s family and friends. Texas has lost one of its great daughters.

The Dems are still outraged about 9/11 and they took the airwaves to make it known:

CNN's Koppel: "What has House Democrats up in arms today is this six-page Republican resolution. It's not the fact that the resolution commemorates the 9/11 attacks that has them so upset, but rather the fact that in their opinion the Republicans are injecting politics into what should be a solemn occasion, by showcasing the Republican led Congress's legislative accomplishments, including renewing the Patriot Act, and also passing the House-backed immigration bill" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 9/13).

FNC's Garrett: "The House will pass the president's version of the detainee trial and procedure bill next week, but there is now a full-blown impasse in the Senate and, for the first time, Congressional Republicans in the White House are looking at the reality that this legislation will not be passed before Congress adjourns at the end of this month to campaign for re-election" ("Special Report," 9/13).

Washington Post's Milbank: "I call this treason season. It's the time it happened in 2002, happened 2004, it's
happening again now, when Republicans go around and say, Vote Democrat and die, essentially, that the Democrats are with the terrorists. ... Democrats predictably respond to this by whining and saying, 'that's unfair, and of course we're patriotic,' when in reality, that's just playing into the hands of the Republicans making the charges" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 9/13).

Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid was on the "NewsHour":

On Iraq: "We think it's time the training wheels came off of Iraq. We have spent billions of dollars getting them ready to take care of themselves."

On what Dems can do with a GOPer in the WH: "If we had the majority, we have control of the pocketbook, the purse. That's what our Constitution set up, is that the legislative branch of government controls the money. And this president, during the last six years, has had a carte blanche with this Republican-dominated Congress. He's gotten everything that he's wanted, except stem cell research, the only thing he's vetoed. He hasn't had to veto anything, because they have given him everything he wanted. We basically haven't had a third branch of government."

On Bush's 9/11 speech: "If you look at his speech, all he did was take words that he had given all the previous month in his political speeches -- campaign speeches in Georgia, and other places in the country, exact same words. He had an opportunity, on that night, that solemn occasion, to bring America together, not point fingers -- and that's what he did -- not give a campaign speech. And I thought that it was untoward for him to do that" (PBS, 9/13).

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) was on "AC 360":

Kerry: "The administration took their eye off of Afghanistan, shifted the focus to Iraq, which was not the center of the war of terror. It is Afghanistan. And we are facing enormous problems."

More: "There isn't anybody who can't see, very simply, that the entire focus of the war on terror shifted to Iraq. The fact is that Afghanistan always was the place where it was of greatest intensity. And this shifting has cost us enormously" (CNN, 9/13). [EMILY GOODIN]

If it wasn't clear last week, it became crystal clear Monday night that the 2006 midterm elections could be boiled down to a phrase made famous by "gonzo" journalist Hunter S. Thompson. The Republicans are using "fear" to motivate their voters and the Democrats are employing a message of "loathing" to fire up their base.

President Bush succinctly reinforced the GOP message in his speech to the nation on Monday when he declared: "The safety of America depends on the outcome of the battle in the streets of Baghdad."

Digest that sentence for a moment.

While the idea that Iraq is central to the war on terror is not a new message out of this White House, Bush has never been more direct.

Read Chuck Todd's On The Trail.

Checking in Katie Couric, parsing ABC's 9/11 docudrama and wondering if Cheney should have taken a shot at Russert. It's TV talk

Could the Democratic National Convention return to New York City in 2008?

According to party sources and other Democrats who have consulted with members of the party's selection committee, NYC and Minneapolis-St. Paul are right outside the winners’ circle. NYC is said to have an edge -- at least for now.

The site selection committee had high hopes for Denver, located in a blinking-blue Mountain West state with a growing Hispanic population. But one Democrat briefed on the city's initial presentation called it "disastrous." Others confirmed that the general impression among site selection members of Denver was not positive, although a third iteration of Denver's bid, submitted last week, has been better received.

The city also lacks a union hotel, and even though the city’s labor leaders voted to table its outrage, it remains an obstacle.

The Twin Cities' bid meets the party’s nominal requirements, but several Democrats involved in the process worry about extended commutes from delegate hotels to events. Democrats also worry that Republicans have their designs on using the city for its convention.

Democratic donors, irate at the Republican Party’s 2004 fete in their city, have urged the party to choose New York. And that city’s bid has been the most impressive. One part of its presentation to the DNC consisted of a “lessons learned” discussion about the 2004 convention.

One unanticipated concern: the resolve of television networks to scale down their convention coverage. Holding the show in New York City would dramatically reduce the costs.

Some Democrats worry about the symbolism of choosing New York City over Minnesota and question whether the party will acquiesce to the cultural elitism of its donors. Others suggest that Sen. Hillary Clinton wouldn’t want to hold her nominating convention in her home state. But that concern is not widely shared among Democrats close to Sen. Clinton.

In New York today, a gaggle of party heavyweights are meeting at City Hall with Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s political strategist Kevin Sheekey to plot out their final persuasive push. They include Chung Seto, the former exec. dir of the New York State Democratic party, DNC member Emily Giske, Josh Wachs, an NBA official who worked under Terry McAuliffe at the DNC, and Gigi Georges, a former aide to Hillary Clinton. Madison Square Garden’s Shari Yost and top AFL-CIO official Suzy Ballantyne are representing their organizations. The convention begins Aug. 25, 2008. [MARC AMBINDER]

MEMORANDUM

TO: Chairman Ken Mehlman

Interested Parties

FROM: Mike DuHaime

RE: Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary

DATE: September 13, 2006

To: Interested Parties

From: DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer

RE: What Tuesday’s Primaries Say About November

Connecticut Senate nominee Ned Lamont (D) returned to the basics last week by emphasizing the cornerstone of his campaign: his opposition to the war in Iraq.

He unveiled a new 60-second ad last Wednesday that ran for several days before being condensed into a 30-second version. Released just four days before the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, it links Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) and President Bush yet again, asking "How have they made us safer? What have they been right about so far?"

The tenor of the spot is graver than other ads the businessman was airing in the run-up to the primary -- including one that addressed Lieberman's support of the Iraq war.

But the Lamont campaign has not abandoned its peppy tactics altogether. On Tuesday, the communications team issued its first "Cup of Joe" -- a daily press release "highlighting an important issue each day." The "first serving" faulted the incumbent for missing two Senate votes regarding the Iraq war and telling the media that they "do not matter."

Lieberman's new ads reveal a decidedly different strategy; there are no references to Iraq in either spot. At the end of August, the now-independent candidate went meta on attack ads in a spot that features a beach sunset and offers, "Joe Lieberman thought you might enjoy a break from Ned Lamont's negative attacks

Lieberman's newest spot, released earlier this week, resembles the 60-second biographical ad that kicked off his TV efforts in April. Like Lamont, Lieberman gets back to the starting gate by reminding voters, "He's the guy who marched for civil rights in the 60s, who fought for the environment before it was popular."

Want to learn more? Hotline subscribers get full access to each day's Ad Spotlight, including video of campaign ads from this year's key House, Senate and gubernatorial races, plus an archive of 8500+ ads from the last ten years.

In Iowa tomorrow, Gov. George Pataki will convene a major strategy meeting with his top statewide advisers. His national consultants -- Rob Cole and Arthur Finklestein -- will also contribute. Also: Pataki has a new PAC press secretary, Alicia Preston. (Hotline)

David Yepsen has a message for '08ers: "While national candidates can attract media attention, they can also pull that media spotlight away from the candidates for governor, Congress or the Legislature. For example, we all heard about what John Edwards was doing in the Quad Cities on Labor Day. But Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver, who made a half dozen speeches that day, got little or no attention from many news organizations. So with less than two months left in the 2006 campaign, look for the Iowans to start — ever so politely — passing the word to their national friends: Stay away. If you want to help, just send cash. Otherwise, let us now spend our time and energy generating our own media attention and turning out our voters — not building events around you. After all, 2006 comes before 2008."

In New Hampshire, Carol Shea-Porter, the chair of the Manchester Democrats and a jazzy anti-war candidate, upset NH House Min. Leader Jim Craig in Democratic primary to take on Rep. Jeb Bradley (R). The DCCC had endorsed Craig but long ago decided the race against Bradley was not winnable. They may reconsider.

Ex-Rep. John Napier (R-SC) joins Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC as a co-chair. (release)

Late last Thursday, Sen. Elizabeth Dole hurried up to Sen. Lincoln Chafee on the floor of the Senate and put her foot down. You might lose this race, she told him, if you don’t put your best ads back up.

Chafee, gun-shy about the negative ads he knew Dole was referring to, relented, as he’s done innumerable times in the year and a half since it became clear that he’d face a primary challenge.

The next night, Rhode Island television viewers were once again treated to the sounds of Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey joking that old people should die off. They heard the charges that he had doctored his resume. The tag line: “Steve Laffey: Untrustworthy, unpredictable, unreliable.” And the most important part of the ad was the FEC-mandated ending. Lincoln Chafee approved this message. A contrast was drawn.

By Tuesday, six months worth of hard-hitting spots like these, many funded directly by the NRSC, had driven unfavorable perceptions of Laffey to scary heights among non-affiliated voters.

But Laffey’s campaign professed not to worry. They weren’t concerned about unaffiliated voters. They assumed that few would be motivated to spend an hour at the polls waiting to vote for Lincoln Chafee. Laffey ran his campaign as if he were a presidential candidate preparing for a caucus. He tried to meet as many Republicans as possible. His campaign identified and kept in touch with about 30,000 stalwarts. Based on past turnout, that seemed like enough.

In every speech, Laffey touted his conservative credentials, his record as mayor, and, somewhat discordantly, his independence. After all, his audience was the small and restive Republican base in RI – conservative and independent. The ads he ran were all positive, but the Club for Growth spent hundreds of thousands of dollars running spots that blasted Chafee. The messages were was confusing. Some of Laffeys’ ads were populist in content; he recalled how his brother died of AIDS and his parents live on Social Security. Others stressed his commitment to lowering taxes, securing borders and protecting America. Laffey’s campaign and the Club could not coordinate their strategy, and they often dismissed each other’s decisions in private.

Laffey hoped to convince Republicans that he was better on their issues and could get things done. Chafee’s ads were designed to prevent Laffey from making a gut-level connection with voters.

Rhode Island will become a case study in the effectiveness of the Republicans’ 72 Hour Program. Behind the curtain, Chafee’s campaign spent $500,000 to squeeze out every conceivable voter from neighborhoods across the state. They searched for independents who voted Democrat in municipal elections but who had once upon a time voted for a Republican for president or governor or senator. There were a few of those. They looked for non-affiliated voters in Republican neighborhoods. Using microtargeting techniques, they even tried to figure out which committed Democrats might be tempted to vote for Chafee.

By the end of the summer, Chafee’s campaign had identified 42,000 potential supporters. Then the second part of the program kicked in. Message, here, is a verb. The campaign “messaged” these voters, often individually. Chafee himself called more than 100 of them who were identified as being capable of swinging the votes of colleagues and friends. The standard complement of robocalls, mailings and personal visits were employed. In the twelve days of September, Chafee, the RNC and NRSC made more than 198,000 phone calls to the voters on their list. Many voters received one every two days.

On election day, the Chafee campaign stationed poll watchers at 100 key precincts across the state. By 10:00 am, the RNC and the NRSC were confident that Chafee would win.

It didn’t faze them when Laffey’s campaign bragged about meeting their targets. Chafee had simply found more voters. Laffey’s turnout was sufficient for a universe of Republicans and identified conservatives. But Chafee had found just about every Republican he could hope for and managed to attract at least 10,000 non-Republicans to his tally. One Republican in the state estimates that as many as 60 percent of the primary electorate were not affiliated with the Republican Party. (More than 20,000 Rhose Islanders requested formal disaffiliation forms after voting.) Chafee even managed to blunt Laffey's margin of victory in Cranston to just a few hundred votes.

The same factors that drove Chafee’s victory are giving his Democratic challenger, Sheldon Whitehouse, some comfort. The universe of identified Chafee voters is at least 20,000 less than the number of Democrats who voted for Whitehouse in yesterday’s noncompetitive primary. [MARC AMBINDER]

If returns hold, Rep. Al Wynn (D-MD) may become the third Democratic incumbent to be ousted in a primary this cycle.

Wynn's opponent, Donna Edwards, called him Maryland's Joe Lieberman; he voted for the war in Iraq (though now regrets it), voted to repeal the estate tax several times (he has constituents who will benefit), voted for Republican energy initiatives (he has his reasons), voted to intervene in the Terri Schiavo affair (he believed it was the right thing to do), voted for bankruptcy reform (he says he negotiated a better bill, though Rep. Jerry Nadler strongly disagrees.)

Wynn represents all of Prince George's County and a slice of Montgomery County. Having never won his primary with fewer than 65% of the vote, he didn't take the race all that seriously until the final few weeks. The media largely left the race uncovered and when they did, tended to dismiss Edwards's chances. (Whoops.)

By then, Edwards had knocked on 20K doors and her volunteers spoke on the telephone to thousands more. Iraq was a major flash point; his campaign autodialed thousands of voters with Wynn's explanation of his Iraq policies. Wynn took most of the politician endorsements, but Edwards received sustenance from the foot soldiers of the League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club.

Edwards' campaign tried to excite the district's nascent populism. It was a hard sell: the district has the highest concentration of black business owners in the country. But if she pulls it off, entrenched incumbents everwhere who have relied upon a quiescent press corps and the coatails of the Democratic brand to satisfy the demands of their contributor bases -- be warned.

Another PG incumbent -- county exec. Jack Johnson -- barely won his race against an upstart who challenged his performance and his governing style. And Edwards charged that Wynn ruled his roost like a "boss," punishing municipal officials who disagreed with him and rewarding allies with favorable recommendations. Johnson and Wynn, each their own center of gravity, are wary allies.

Several thousand provisional votes will be counted next Monday; a few precincts in Prince George's County have yet to report in. So the candidates await. [MARC AMBINDER]

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Texas Governor Rick Perry launched an internet ad buy Monday for 15-second videos before video on news Web sites. According to the Governor's ad firm, Broadband Enterprises, Perry is the first political candidates to run this type of full-length ad before video news stories. The ads, known as "pre-roll," are based on Perry's existing TV ads. For an example of a Netflix pre-roll, click here.

A spokesperson from Perry's campaign, Robert Black, declined to comment because of what he called a longstanding policy not to discuss ad buys. He said Broadband enterprises put out a press release without their knowledge or permission.

Although many candidates make ad buys on internet news sites, so far mostly corporations have found sucess with the pre-roll format. The market is certainly ripe for politicians: Newspaper Web sites viewers are usually education, informed and probably likely voters. But will this induce any voter/viewer backlash? Users can't click through this ad to watch the video, so there is a potential for negative reactions. If viewers change the channel when a TV ad comes on the screen, how much easier is it to close the entire window?

*Two new Web ads: The DNC released "Bin Laden Been Missing" Friday and Gov. Ted Kulongoski's re-election campaign in Oregon has released a video response, "Ted's Accomplishments (In 10 Seconds)." For more, check out Web AD-dict.

*AZ Senate candidate Jim Pederson has re-launched his Web site.

*Joe Lieberman's campaign has launched a new blog, "The Full Lamonty," dedicated to posts on Democratic opponent Ned Lamont.

*In lieu of the five year anniversary of 9/11, more than a few statewide campaigns suspended their Web sites all day Monday. Specifically, the Web sites of Sen. Bob Menendez's and Rep. Ed Case's Senate campaigns went dark all day. Sens. Rick Santorum, Conrad Burns and the DSCC put up splash pages noting the anniversary as well. Nearly a dozen other statewide candidates, almost evenly split Republicans and Democrats, had graphics and statements on their cites to commemorate the day.

TV last night was a mix of Dem reaction to Pres. Bush's Oval Office address with very little talk on the primaries:

FNC's Garrett: "Democrats today accused President Bush of poisoning the fifth anniversary of 9/11 with ugly partisan politics" ("Special Report," 9/12).

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "I was disappointed yesterday. This should have been a day, the fifth anniversary of 9/11 where we set the politics over on the side and really appealed to the American people to remember where we were as a nation five years ago. We were unified. We were nonpartisan. We were determined to fight terrorism. I thought the references, a few of the references the president made were unfortunate when he brought up the issue of Iraq" ("Situation Room," CNN, 9/12).

CNN's Koppel: "In a continued effort to blunt the president's efforts to command the national stage ... congressional Democrats circulated this letter addressed to the presidents of all the major television executives, including CNN's, arguing that if President Bush continues to get live national television time to talk about national security issues ... that Democrats should get equal time" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 9/12). [EMILY GOODIN]

Primary Night In America

Results And Analysis

How much is Chafee's victory worth to the NRSC? Possibly $3M. That's the amount of money the DSCC is going to have to spend in the state to give themselves a chance at knocking Chafee off in November. Which state would have benefitted from the DSCC saving $3M in RI: TN? AZ? VA?

Dems may still win RI, but Sheldon Whitehouse's job is a lot harder now that the national Republicans are sticking around. No doubt, the very large indie turnout has to scare some Dems who need RI in order to get to the magic number of 6 Senate pickups.

The most important part of this RI battle is that Chafee didn't have to move too far to the right to win. Compare Chafee to Corker in TN. Corker had to prove his conservative credentials to stop the bleeding on the right. Chafee didn't do that. Instead, he and the NRSC unloaded on character attacks on Laffey. Considering how successful the personal attacks on Laffey were in this primary, no doubt the GOP will be mimicking the tactic in other states. The Washington Post, over the weekend, hinted at this character strategy. It worked in RI. Will it work against Sherrod Brown, Claire McCaskill and Harold Ford Jr., the three Dems running in the three GOP Senate firewall states?

So Chafee got to keep his moderate credentials and still won the GOP primary... that's pretty much the prescription the GOP would have cooked for victory in November.

One other note on RI. The RNC 72-hour program has once again surpassed expecations. While there are sporadic reports that the RNC's vaunted GOTV program is running into burnout problems in states like OH, MO and PA (three states that saw the program first introduced in '04) wherever the RNC has introduced the program for the first time this cycle, they've seen results. From CA 50 to RI SEN, the RNC and the WH are probably getting cocky about their abilities to "save" elections. Does this mean in states like TN, CT and IN -- three places the RNC is implementing the 72-hour program for the first time, they'll see better than expected results?

These are the questions that keep many of us up at night. BTW, should the GOP hold the senate by a seat, tonight will be known as the Mark Twain primary because it may be the night where we found out that reports of the GOP's demise had been greatly exaggerated. [CHUCK TODD]

Primary Night In America

In a 10:30 p.m. conference call, Club for Growth pres. Pat Toomey conceded Laffey had probably lost in RI, but said he was pleased that Club-backed candidates had done so well in other races this year, mentioning MI-07 twice. He admitted that the Club was 0 for 2 in Senate primaries against incumbents, but that both he (in PA) and Laffey came very close to winning. Asked about the role of national Republicans in Chafee's win, Toomey said he was very disappointed, and that the NRSC's attacks against a conservative challenger were certain to dishearten conservatives everywhere. He also said they wasted "money they don't have." [QUINN MCCORD]

Here's a statement from the Republican Main Street Partnership

(Washington, DC) - The Republican Main Street Partnership PAC hails tonight’s victory by Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) over Club for Growth endorsed challenger Steve Laffey. “Today voters in Rhode Island chose results and integrity over division and deceipt,” said Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, head of the RMSP PAC. “Senator Chafee’s win tonight is a win for Republicans all across this great country of ours.”

Steve Laffey, a former stock broker and Mayor of Cranston, ran a vicious campaign, financed by the ultra-right wing Club for Growth, against Senator Chafee. The Laffey campaign received national support from radical extremists like Ann Coulter and Michelle Malkin. “Today common sense, centrist values won out over the radical politics of division,” continued Resnick. “At the end of the day Rhode Island voters wanted a Senator in Washington who would represent their values, not the values of a handful of right-wing extremists.

The Club for Growth poured more than a million dollars into Laffey’s challenge to Senator Chafee, forcing the national GOP to divert limited money and resources into defending the Rhode Island seat. “The Club for Growth ought to be working to protect the GOP majority, not working to undermine it. Working to insure Harry Reid ends up as the Senate Majority Leader doesn’t seem like, ‘working to promote pro-growth economic policies,” continued Resnick. “The reality is that the Club for Growth doesn’t really care about promoting pro-growth economic policies, instead they are obsessed with collecting political scalps.”

Rhode Island voters were subjected to months of divisive and deceptive campaigning by Laffey and his backers at the Club for Growth. Respected non-partisan groups, like Annenberg’s factcheck.org, called the Club to task for its misleading ads attacking Senator Chafee. “Sadly, deception and division are the hallmarks of a Club for Growth campaign,” said Resnick.

“Main Street is proud of its support for Senator Chafee and of our tireless work to protect and expand Republican majorities in both the House and Senate. We will continue to fight the Club for Growth and other extremists committed to destroying our party,” concluded Resnick.

Primary Night In America

No one's too focused tonight on the NY primaries, where Dems Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton sailed to easy wins. But more so than any other state holding primaries, 9/12 marks a historic milestone in Dem efforts to re-establish their firm grip on NY politics.

As the NY Times notes, NY Dems, with a degree of unity and financial prowess rarely enjoyed, are poised to rise from the wilderness to a place of dominance for the first time in modern history. They have never held the top statewide offices and both Senate seats in modern history. GOPers came closer during the Rockefeller era in the 70's, when Jacob Javits and James Buckley were senators and Louis Lefkowitz was AG. (Only Comptroller/ex-SEC Chair Arthur Leavitt was a Dem.) The last time one party controlled the statewide offices and both Senate seats was 1949 - all of them GOPers.

Of the 9 states holding primaries, only MD is poised to become as one-party as NY this year. But for MD Dems, it's a much shorter climb. [JOHN MERCURIO]

With 60% of Pima County precincts reporting, former State Rep. Randy Graf (R) holds a narrow 200-vote lead over State Rep. Steve Huffman (R). Former state GOP chair Mike Hellon (R) is coming in a distant third, at just under 14% to Graf’s 39.8% and Huffman’s 39.1%.

Pima County, the more urban part of Arizona’s 8th district, is expected to report first, according to the Arizona Secretary of State’s office. Cochise County, the more rural section of the district, has yet to report.

Primary Day In America

Steve Laffey's campaign aides will be stunned if they lose. Campaign sources say they hit all their target numbers in every targeted precinct etc, assuming a turnout of 50 to 55k voters.

These are just targeting predictors, not vote counts, so anything can happen, but everything has gone as planned for their turnout operation.

The Secretary of State reports that precincts across the state ran out of the more than 20K Unaffiliation forms they distributed. That suggests a least three possibilities:

1. Independents and Democrats voted for Chafee and then re-established their independent credentials