The Big Five: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Let It Rain: State Sen. Peter Welch (D) leads VT Nat'l Guard Adj. Gen. Martha Rainville by 10 points in a DCCC-sponsored VT AL poll (Hotline sources ).

2. No Ordinary Joe: Atty/'02 nominee Joe Courtney (D) began airing a new CT 02 TV ad this a.m. In the ad, a hot dog vendor passes hot dogs down an aisle and says, "Til I checked, I didn't know -- Rob Simmons votes with George Bush more than any Congressman from Connecticut." Hot dog buyers tell him that on oil issues, Part D, and the war in Iraq, Simmons stood by Pres. Bush (Hotline sources ).

3. Nancy As Jack Bauer? Rep. Nancy Johnson is up with an ad attacking State Sen. Chris Murphy (D) in CT 05. As in the TV series, "24," the ad addresses how Johnson and Murphy might respond to a terrorist threat. ANNCR: "Nancy Johnson says act immediately. Lives may be at stake. Liberal Chris Murphy says no -- apply for a court warrant even if valuable time is lost" (Hotline sources ).

4. Stealing The Football? Rep. John Doolittle (R) might have to do a little more in CA 04 if he wants to beat ret. USAF officerCharlie Brown, even if that's just in the polls! A new poll shows him leading... but by two points! (Hotline sources ).

5. Will He Apply To The CBC Too? NYC councilmember David Yassky (D) is up 4 in one of Dem NY 11 primary polls (Hotline sources ).